With the free agency debates going, how long a career can one expect from a player has come up. Lets dig into the history.
Some basic figures to start using data from the Lahman Database (available for free in MS Access format, SQL, and others - updated through the 2019 season, since it is a labor of love he updates when he gets a chance so I expect 2020 to be added at some point in the next few months).
Clearly few make it to their 30's, fewer to their 40's. Using 1950+ year of birth you get only 35% still active at age 30. 28/29 is the half way point (by 28/29 half of players have retired) then it goes down by 5 points a year until age 35 when we are sub 10%. Ah you say, but those are all players including a lot of guys who played only 1 year. What about good ones?
Some basic figures to start using data from the Lahman Database (available for free in MS Access format, SQL, and others - updated through the 2019 season, since it is a labor of love he updates when he gets a chance so I expect 2020 to be added at some point in the next few months).
By decade born, ignoring the 80's and beyond as many are still active. Last player born in the 70's who was active was Ichiro who retired in 2019 after playing 2 games. Columns are the age they played their final season (based on age as of July 1st that year). Note: the 1830's and 40's were mainly stars of pre-pro ball who were able to last until the majors existed in 1871 (the earliest year of data in the database). Also of note: no Negro League stats were factored in as the database hasn't been updated since that was declared an official Major League.
| Decade Born |
16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | >40 |
| 1830's |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| 1840's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 1% |
| 1850's | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1860's | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 1870's | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 1880's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 1890's | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 1900's | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 1910's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 1920's | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 1930's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1940's | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 1950's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 1960's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 1970's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Total | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Percent Retired after age | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 99% | 97% | 94% | 90% | 84% | 78% | 71% | 63% | 55% | 47% | 40% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 18% | 14% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Born since 1950 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| % Retired born after 1950 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 97% | 94% | 88% | 80% | 72% | 64% | 55% | 48% | 41% | 35% | 29% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
Clearly few make it to their 30's, fewer to their 40's. Using 1950+ year of birth you get only 35% still active at age 30. 28/29 is the half way point (by 28/29 half of players have retired) then it goes down by 5 points a year until age 35 when we are sub 10%. Ah you say, but those are all players including a lot of guys who played only 1 year. What about good ones?
| All-Stars | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | >40 | ||||||||
| 1890's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 11% | 22% | 11% | 0% | ||||||||
| 1900's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 16% | 10% | 14% | 3% | 6% | ||||||||
| 1910's | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 3% | ||||||||
| 1920's | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 1% | ||||||||
| 1930's | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 0% | ||||||||
| 1940's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 3% | ||||||||
| 1950's | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 4% | ||||||||
| 1960's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 3% | ||||||||
| 1970's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 2% | ||||||||
| Total | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 7% | ||||||||
| Percent Retired after age | 100% | 99% | 97% | 96% | 94% | 92% | 89% | 86% | 81% | 74% | 66% | 57% | 46% | 36% | 27% | 18% | 12% | 7% | ||||||||
| Born since 1950 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 9% | ||||||||
| % Retired born after 1950 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 99% | 97% | 94% | 90% | 83% | 75% | 64% | 52% | 39% | 30% | 20% | 14% | 9% | ||||||||
Similar pattern, but boy they last a lot longer. 35/36 is the dividing point - a LOT later than I expected it to be. Virtually no change over the years on this too. Huh. Frankie Zak was the 24 year old wonder. All-Star at 22 in 1944, just 36 more games as the war ended (22 OPS+ as a SS/PH/2B for Pittsburgh).
Sure that was good, but those include one year wonders. How about the guys who got there multiple times?
| Multiple time All-Star | 25 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | >40 | ||||||||||
| 1890's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | ||||||||||
| 1900's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 19% | 16% | 20% | 3% | 22% | ||||||||||
| 1910's | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 10% | 18% | 14% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 10% | ||||||||||
| 1920's | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 5% | 6% | 7% | ||||||||||
| 1930's | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | ||||||||||
| 1940's | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 17% | ||||||||||
| 1950's | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 18% | ||||||||||
| 1960's | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 5% | 12% | 15% | ||||||||||
| 1970's | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 19% | 13% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 5% | ||||||||||
| Total | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 12% | ||||||||||
| Percent Retired after age | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 98% | 96% | 94% | 88% | 81% | 72% | 61% | 48% | 36% | 26% | 18% | 12% | ||||||||||
| Born since 1950 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 9% | 8% | 5% | ||||||||||
| % Retired born after 1950 | 100% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 98% | 96% | 91% | 82% | 72% | 61% | 46% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 5% | ||||||||||
So real stars you get older yet. 50% mark is between ages 36 and 37 (almost all the way to 37 in fact). One more year than the one hit wonders. Only 14 retired before 30. Jose Rosado the youngest multi-all-star (all star at 22 and 24 but career ending injury at 25), also young and recent was Scott Cooper (2 times for Red Sox, then smartly traded to St Louis for his age 27 season, missed age 28 season, came back at 29 with a 54 OPS+ and never played again). Mark Fidrych is the other 25 year old, all-star at 21 and 22, injured at 23, done at 25 (tried in minors for 3 more years). And that covers the 3 multi-all-stars born in 1950 or later to not make it to 30 in the majors.
To be honest, this is not what I expected at all. I thought we'd see a bit of an increase - more like the 1 year between 1 time and multi-time all-stars. Not a massive shift like this. Checking the 'never made an all-star team' crowd the numbers were almost identical to the first set due to how few players make an all-star team (under 100 a year out of 800+ players a year). Also of note is how fast they start falling down after that half way mark though. 12% retire after age 36 season, same after age 37, the biggest 2 years for retirement. 38 and 39 also see big drops with 14% playing at 41+. However, only 2% retire by the point 50% of other players do (28) probably all injury related. I suspect we'd be pushed a bit further still if I limited it to HOF'ers but I figure this shows us enough.
Bottom line: Basically if a guy is good enough to make an all-star team, his career should be well into his 30's unless he gets a career ending injury, with roughly 1 in 10 not making it to their 30's, although if they make 2 teams their odds of lasting goes up by another year. Guys who aren't all-stars? Well, they are lucky to make it to their 30's. So guys like Travis Shaw only last about as long as he did (to 30, although he might get another shot still but no one has signed him yet) while guys like Justin Smoak (1 time All-Star) get a few more chances (lasted in majors to 33, now in Japan). Wouldn't be surprised if that 'all-star' status gets GM's to give them extra spring invites or AAA deals that make it possible for them to get those extra few years. So signing a former all-star at 31 to a 5 year deal you are likely to get him to play all 5 years, but quality is the next big question which I'll try to address another day when I find the time to make a new set of queries to estimate value.
