I am very high on Espinal, and feel he just needs more reps and at-bats to be a very useful player.

It was a waste to run out Joe Panik day after day in 2020 after a brief mid season hot streak. It would have been a great opportunity to see what Espinal could do. Not sure what the Jays were thinking there.

I too like Espinal.

Lindor is going to get a very expensive contract. I don't think the Jays do a contract like that.

I am sure Cleveland talked about an extension and it was most likely beyond their budget. They lost to the Cubs in the WS a few years ago. So a nice longish window. That could be the Jays way to do things. NYY and Boston are not going away.

Rogers will most likely not spend money like NYY and Boston. Also NYY has payroll that contributes little or nothing. J Ellesbury was simply a contract that was going to become a burden.

Bichette and the 3 high ranking prospects on the way up A Martin, Groshans and O Martinez provide a supply of IFs that are cheap and potentially elite. If they fail then go for the expensive IF in trade or FA to extend the window before the inevitable rebuild.

Not sure where to put this, but Passan reports the Jays signed Robbie Ray for one year, $8 million

Yes they have:

BlueJays in agreement with LHP Robbie Ray on a one-year deal with a salary of $8M

Craig Edwards at FG had Ray as the #46 FA, and nailed the 1 yr/$8 M contract.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-50-free-agents/

I think Ray is worth a gamble, but it might signal that the team wants stop gaps until the young pitching such as SWR, Manoah, Hatch, Merryweather are ready.

Depending on price and term, they could take a flyer on Kim at third.

$8 million for a year for Ray does not suggest that the market will be completely flat. He is a project although one with potentially good returns.

Yeah, $8M for Ray is a bit more than I thought he'd get. Could mean that the Jays will have a lot of money to spend, which they should.

Agreed on the $8 mil being more than I expected Ray to get. I expected a 1+option year deal but can understand why Ray would want a single year deal (I suspect many FA's will want that this year).

8M is more because it's only November. I guess they liked him so much they couldn't wait.
Ryu
Pearson
Stripling
Ray
Roark

Also, the Yankees have made huge changes in their farm system.
No more Trenton. Still waiting to hear about  the Jays side of things.

I don't think Ray is really a playoff starter anymore, but could be a weapon as a multi-inning reliever in the playoffs. He does have Andrew Miller upside

Like Anderson last year,I think the Jays added Ray at a little higher price than expected to mitigate the risk that the market for starters is more robust than expected given the paucity of quality starters available in FA. I'm hoping all the Jays young starters including Pearson begin the year in the minors and that the Jays are able to dump Roark.

Ryu
Odorizzi
Paxton/Plesac/Walker/Carrasco
Ray
Stripling

I agree with John. $8 million is a little more than I expected, so I would have liked to have seen a team option included, at a higher price, that the Jays could have exercised if he continues to show improvement in Toronto. Obviously Ray wasn't willing to agree to that, and it seems the Jays were willing to strike the deal anyway.

I hope this isn't indicative of a lack of confidence in bringing back Walker, but is more reflective of trying to get certainty towards the bottom end of the rotation with a familiar arm.

This deal is a bargain for Toronto. He is easily our 2nd best starter.

An option would have been crazy expensive, because Ray has a very high ceiling.
In 2017, he finished 7th in Cy Young voting.
Ray wanted a pillow contract and it's great that his Blue Jays experience was so good that he preferred doing it in Buffalo/Toronto.

I would have no problem with bringing back Walker. He's around the same price.
I don't know about Paxton. That would mean starting 3 lefties. If so, even Happ is an option.
Happ might provide more insight into Yankees strategies.
Odorizzi is too brittle for my taste. He missed time because of back issues--those are chronic, then was hit in the chest--freak accident, but had to be pulled because of a blister when he tried to come back--deja vu.
He averaged 30 starts a year, but less than 6 innings per start.

Walker and Odorizzi would both be great signings for #3/4 types with some upside to produce like #2 from time to time. I prefer Odorizzi because he is more unique and less prone to being affected by lost velocity. 6 innings these days is like a complete game horse...

Remember that the Jays just about signed Odorizzi last time around before he decided to stay with Minny. Toronto was the first FA choice for him based on the offers last winter.

I definitely see the value in keeping down studs like Pearson the way the Rays do. Other than McKay who is reported to be out of this world with acumen, pitch-ability and nerve, the Rays have kept many of their best SP prospects in the minors for what other organizations felt were too long. Blake Snell is the best example. On the other hand you run the risk of player injury before they make it to the show like Brent Honeywell.

I like Ray.

We always felt that in a 162 game season you need at least 8 SPs. Now many seem to feel that most SPs are pulled when they get to 3 times through the order.

Ryu will finish 7 quality innings in most of his games it seems likely to me. T Walker and Shoemaker also got there a few times. A few capable 50-70 pitch relievers to go 3 innings seems logical/necessary to me.

Based on needing 8 SPs for a 162 season and reluctance to pitch into 3X through the order very often we need to see a new strategy for the 13 man pitching staff.

I have been thinking about that for a few days. IF 80 to 90 pitches only gets 3 (bad), 4 (ok?) and 5 innings (decent/good). Then we need different roles for the bullpen arms.

Good point dalimon5 about TB and their pitching prospects.

B Snell was a high (2011) pick that did v well in the minors. Added to the 40 man Nov 20,2015 for rule 5 protection. He did well in AAA 2015, 16 and 17. Played quite well in the ML 2016 and 2017 But TB was bad in 2015,16 and 17. Burning options in 2016 and 17 was probably not necessary. Maybe they wanted to keep him longer in his cheap years.

Ray is a good signing. MLBTR had him at 1/$6 and Fangraphs at 1/$8 so value seems pretty much right on. I see Ray as a fifth starter/follower type. Apart from the abbreviated 2020, he's had 5 seasons in the majors and been in the 2.3-3.3 WAR range in 4 of them.

There are no reason to keep Pearson down.
The challenge with Pearson is in keeping him healthy.

Shapiro took over right after AA traded all the high level pitching prospects away.

If you look at who started games in Durham in 2019:

Arturo Reyes, 27 back then, 19 starts, now pitching in Taiwan.
Aaron Slegets, 26, 15 starts, ERA 5.05, now in the Rays pen.
Jose De Leon, 26, 13 starts, ERA 3.51, traded to the Reds for cash last year. 6 innings in the pen, ERA 18.00
Ryan Merrit, 27, 11 starts, ERA 7.04, out all year with arm injury.
Sam McWillams, 23, 8 starts, ERA 8.18. Picked KC in the rule 5. Was shelled, returned in March. Stayed in camp.
Jake Faria, 25, 7 starts, ERA 4.07. Was traded to the Brewers for Aguilar. Has done nothing in the Milwaukee system.
Jake Cronenworth, 25, 6 starts but only 7.1 innings, ERA 0. Traded with Pham to SD for Renfroe. Infielder, not pitcher.
McKay was drafted 4th overall and blazed through the minors, 6 starts, ERA 0.84. Injured.
Austin Pruitt, 29, 6 starts, ERA 5.40. Traded to the Astros for ex-Jays Cal Stevenson and Peyton Battenfield.
Anthony Banda, 25, 4 starts, ERA 5.40. Was in the pen for mopup. 4 games, 7 innings, ERA 10.29. Traded to the Giants for cash in August.
Andrew More, 25, 4 starts, ERA 12.98. Picked on waivers by Seattle, then by SF a week later. Still in the minors.
Ricardo Pinto, 25, 4 starts, ERA 4.13.  Was called up last year, ERA  15.43 in 2.1 innings. Picked on waivers by SF a September 2019.
Cole Sulser, 29, 4 starts, ERA 3.27. Picked on waivers by Baltimore. Still in their pen. ERA 5.56 this year.
Ryan Yarbrough, 27, 4 starts, ERA 3.81. Mr Bulk. 9 starts for the Rays this year. ERA 3.56.
Jalen Beeks, 25, 3 starts, ERA 4.22. Now a lefty in the Rays pen. ERA 3.26 over 19.1 innings this year.
Josh Fleming, 23, 3 starts, ERA 5.14. Started 5 games this year for Tampa. ERA 2.78.
Trevor Richards, 26, 3 starts, ERA 1.69. Started 4 games, 5 more in the pen ERA 5.91.
Casey Sadler, 28, 3 starts, ERA 2.76. Traded for Nathan Whit last year.
Luis Santos, 28, 3 starts, ERA 4.90. Granted free agency at the end of last year.
Oliver Drake, 32, 3 starts, ERA 4.94. Surprisingly still with them. Throws hard. 11 games, 11 innings, 2 saves. ERA 5.73.
Tyler Glasnow, 25, 2 starts, ERA 0, only 2.1 innings.
Vidal Nuno the third, 31, 2 starts, ERA 7.58. Granted free agency at the end of last year.
Colin Poche, 25, 2 starts, ERA 6.26. Injured.
Peter Fairbanks, 25, 1 start, ERA 5.09. In the pen. Throws hard. 27 games, 2 saves, ERA 2.70.
Ian Gibeault, 25, 1 start, ERA 3.48. In the pen. 14 games, 12.1 innings. ERA 6.57.
Andrew Kittredge, 29, 1 start. ERA 1.93. In the pen. 8 games, 1 save, ERA 2.25.
Emilio Pagan, 28, 1 start, ERA 0.0. Traded to SD for Logan Driscoll and Manual Margot. I'm sure you remember Margot.
Kenny Rosenberg, 23, 1 start, ERA 7.20. I don't know if he's their 40, but 23 in young for AAA.



Josh Fleming made 22 starts in AA , 3 in AAA and was off the show this year, 5 starts, ERA 2.78.

"On the other hand you run the risk of player injury before they make it to the show like Brent Honeywell."

On the other other hand, especially with elite prospects, it's better they have the injuries in the minors. If Honeywell had been on the major league roster when he had his TJ, he could be in his 1st year of arb without actually throwing a major league pitch.

Imagine the outcry about service time manipulation if the Jays were to keep a highly ranked pitching prospect in AAA.
Snell still has one option, but I do feel that he signed a team friendly contract to escape the service time considerations.

I don't recall the Jays being in a situation where they have good ready pitching prospects in the minors and the team is not competitive. It was Doc and pray for rain for a long while.
And the Rays are not a team that pays the market rate for starting pitching.

My preference to have Pearson start in the minors next season has nothing to do with service time - I simply feel based on his 2020 performance that he is not ready and needs more refinement of his secondary pitches - similar to Vlad in 2019 where I felt his lack of conditioning should have resulted in him staying in minors until he showed a stronger commitment.

I also think it is better for Pearson to start in Buffalo if there is a AAA season.

In the end, if Pearson is one of the top 13 pitchers the Jays have he will be in the majors. Pitchers are always one pitch away from ending their careers so you baby them as much as you can but once they are able to pitch at the ML level that is it you let them pitch. I'd be very surprised if Pearson isn't starting for the Jays in 2021 outside of injury. I think the issue in 2020 was his injury and lack of a real spring. That first start (5 shutout innings) was nice. 2nd was partially bad luck - both starts 5 innings, 2 hits, 5 K's, 3 BB vs 2 BB, and 1 HR vs 0. But 1 walk and 1 HR shouldn't add up to 3 more runs allowed. Then the wheels fell off before his IL time. Can't help but wonder as a kid was he trying too hard and hiding any pain he felt? If so then this experience should be a major help as was Halladay's demotion decades ago. Sometimes these kids need that push to see what they are doing wrong and to learn to listen to their coaches and to learn which ones to listen to.

2021 will be interesting on the mound. Ryu, Ray, Stripling, Roark, Pearson is the current 5 but I expect the Jays to sign or trade for someone else (Walker or another higher end arm). I also expect to see 3 guys in the pen who can go twice through a lineup (such as Kay) to team up with a starter (Ray/Stripling/Pearson all need that). Then 5 one/two inning guys to close out games.

I'm happy to see Ray signed, if only because he's so delightfully weird. There aren't too many walking illustrations of the downside of missing bats, but Ray might be one of them. As a Jay, he threw strikes more often than Tajuan Walker, Tanner Roark and many, many others. (Almost half the guys who threw pitches for the team, in fact.) But he gets so many swings and misses that the at bat simply continues, unless it's strike three.

Letting the other team put the ball in play isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world. A majority of them do get turned into outs.

Pearson did not show us any reason to believe he is ready to be a major league starter yet. I think he needs at least a 1/2 season of AAA ball. You don't take best 13 best pitchers north as a pitcher you want to be a starter is often better off starting in AAA than in a major league pen, but especially in case of Pearson who needs innings build up as well as refinement of secondary piches and better fastabll command.

Pearson was mowing down hitters in March, but never got the velocity back in August/September because he wasn't healthy. He's on the roster and burning options and he has a limited inning count.
I'm not sure if he'll last long enough to reach free agency.
Pearson's injury in 2019 was before he was promoted and there was nothing positive about it. Just an accident.
Hatch is the one who would gain by starting in AAA, if there is such a thing next year.
Merryweather is out of options and could compete for the rotation too.
Not sure about Kay. No idea in what shape Thornton will be.
Could have Zeuch work on a strike out pitch.

Not overly excited about Roark and Stripling.

There is a reason I haven't touched pitching in the positional summary - it is such a dogs breakfast right now. Who starts? Who relieves? Who is available? Ugh.

Starters: 12 used last year, Ryu & Roark the only ones with 10+ starts, 5+: Anderson, Walker, Shoemaker. 4: Ray, Pearson. 3: Thornton, Merryweather. 2: Stripling. 1: Hatch, Zeuch.

Free agents: Shoemaker, Walker, Anderson (released).

Tentative rotation: Ryu, Roark, Ray, Stripling, Pearson with Thornton the best shot of grabbing a spot, then Zeuch & Kay. 24 relievers used last year. Net of 29 pitchers (7 starters also relieved at times). I suspect the Jays want a more stable rotation in 2021. Plus a more stable pen (13 man limit right now for pitchers).

I think Ray os a decent choice for #4 or 5 with upside of being better. $8m is reasonable.

I'm fine with Ray on a one year deal. You can debate whether $8M was a little too much in the current economic climate in baseball, but I don't think a small overpay on a one year deal is a big deal. Ray comes with enough upside to make this a worthwhile gamble.

I agree.  My original point was that the contract was the first piece of evidence that the market this year may not be so bad for players- even for those below the top tier. 

Ray has always been deadly against left-handed hitters.  He's ideally suited to the main event role following a right-handed opener (as he was used in the playoffs)

If Pearson is dominant in spring training once again, he has to make the team.
Nobody leaves their best pitchers in AAA while trying to compete.
Half a season of AAA ball and Pearson would hit his inning limit for the year.

The risk for him is in starting off too strong and ending up on the IL, but I'm sure he prefers that to starting slowly and going to AAA.

Generally, what they need to work on is efficiency, reducing the pitch count.
Go right after the weak hitters and let them put it in play.
Throw inside and let them pull it in the shift.

Roark will make 12M.
Not a lot of options here. Maybe a bad contract swap, but they'll probably let him be the 5th starter for at least a couple of months. He made 11 starts and the Jays won 6 of those. However, he never got an out in the 6th. Pitched 5 innings only 4 times, none in September.

What we are doing here on da box is layering our SPs for 2021. We have veterans Ryu, Roark, Ray and Stripling so far that are being penciled into the rotation because of respect for veteran pitchers. ie they are getting 1st crack at "sticking to the wall". 1 more vet FA will be added I expect.

Injuries will knock a vet out of the rotation temporarily. A young SP (we have about 12) may perform like a #2/3 while one of the 3 vets (not Ryu) is performing like a #4/5. So the kid earns a spot.

A very good SP addition is still very possible.

At the deadline Atkins went to work making the team stronger. Enough to make the 8 team playoffs. Villar plus 3 Veteran SPs that were surplus to their teams. That is a much upgraded goal from the likes of G Richard, C Buchholz and Shoemaker (took a flyer on him).

Stripling was a try for someone that had good proven value. Cheap and a good swing man. So the very important depth concept is being handled by Atkins.

" Half a season of AAA ball and Pearson would hit his inning limit for the year."

Well, that's a concern no matter where he pitches. On one hand I can see why some people are advocating for him to start in AAA in 2021, if there are minor leagues. In his major league starts he looked like he needed to refine his pitches in a non-pressure environment. Although he threw 101 innings in the minors in 2019, he never had above 20 innings pitched, including this season, since he was drafted.

On the other hand, he did look pretty good at times and if he can only pitch so many innings next year, maybe he should do it in the majors where he will have the best coaching.

I am guessing a half season or less in AAA will give the Jays 1 more year of control?

Pearson was IL - still got service time - last year mostly. He was down for the first 10 days iirc which gave the Jays that extra year of control. So to gain another year he'd need to be down all year. If he is down for a month or 3 then the Jays get another year before arbitration depending on new rules after 2021 (player contract up).

Thanks John N. I am sure that the Jays will not use that strategy of keeping him down for extra control because they want the better revenue that comes from success.

Thanks also for starting the pitching discussion.

Heyman reports the Jays are kicking the tires on both Springer and Bradley jr. May or may not come to fruition, but at least the Jays FO seems to realize where upgrading is needed.

Ben Clemons on Robbie Ray.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/robbie-ray-stays-in-toronto/

Worth the read, including videos of the setup change (actually a change back) that he made after the trade. Clemon's verdict?

"If Ray returns close to his prior level of performance, he’ll be quite a bargain for the Blue Jays. They don’t even need the top end of his always-tantalizing potential; if he can make 30 starts and put up average numbers, that’s a bargain for $8 million. The fact that the Blue Jays traded for him, saw him improve, and then signed him early in the offseason should tell you that they’re believers, or at least that they think they can fix some of what was ailing him in Arizona."

Just makes sense to at least kick the tires on top free agents. One never knows when a bargain might emerge. 3 starters got a QO, Bauer, Marcus Stroman, and Kevin Gausman. Gausman is an interesting one as he got that QO but his numbers, while good, aren't impressive enough imo. HR/9 rate over 1 every year, 1.3 last year suggests he might have trouble here as the dome is a good HR park and so is Buffalo if the Jays are stuck there again. Gives up a lot of hits for a guy with those K numbers too.

Either way, they'd have to move Grichuk.
Which is possible if they don't wait too long. Grichuk is a decent corner outfield.
But he slowed down in centerfield quite a bit.
Sign Springer and the offseason is done.
Bradley is half a platoon and would be the 8th or 9th hitter.

Most people think Gausman should take the QO.
The worst outcome for him would be a pillow contract with a team option.
He can get almost 19M for a single year.
I'd be tempted, but not with a QO attached.

The QO will be interesting this year. I suspect most will take it as once taken you can't be offered again. Depending on the next deal between players/owners of course. Boy tough choices for players this winter. Do you sign and lock in what you can, or do you risk it hoping the union gets a better deal that lets you make more next winter, taking the risk that the offseason gets shrunk down due to a lockout/strike thus no one getting signed until a mad dash at the end of the 2021/22 off season. But teams this winter will be super-cheap due to COVID (gives them an easy excuse to cut payroll drastically).

It is worth noting Bauer was acquired by a Shapiro led-Cleveland org in 2012. He was still known (although not as much so) as having character and makeup issues.

Character and makeup are always issues to be looked at closely with long term deals. The Jays have gotten away with some guys who were low on those things before (Yunel Escobar comes to mind) but it is always a risk. Still, pitchers I think you can get away with it more as they are only on the field once every 5 days and are seen as flaky in the first place. There was a pitcher back in the early 20th century who fought teammates on a train, and was viewed as ... well ... developmentally challenged shall we say (HOF'er Rube Waddell - great story on his life can be read here)

Heck, one of the best ever, Ty Cobb, was hated by opponents, teammates, fans, you name it. But his team stood up for him and had the first strike in MLB history (a one day strike over a suspension). In sports it is generally as long as you are productive they don't care if you are running around naked after games, licking random people on the street, or doing lord knows what. As long as you help the team win they can deal with it. No idea how much of an issue Bauer is - his using foreign substances (alleged, but he pretty much said he does) does put a bit of risk on him. His experiments showed up to 2 more inches of break on pitches which would be massive.

So any character issues I'd take with a grain of salt. If he is good with a 3 year deal I'd sign him for insane per year money (in about 3 years this team starts to get expensive as Vlad/Biggio/Bo all hit arbitration years) since the risk is low that he'd suddenly collapse and worst case is wasted Rogers money then.

Atkins says he feels "good about acquiring another free agent in the starting pitcher market" and that "If that doesn't happen, we"ll turn to the trade market." In Toronto Star.

Jays said to be on everybody, including Andrelton Simmons.

Talking about character and makeup, the LaRussa hire does not seem to be going over well. Not only was he hired despite the teams knowledge of his 2nd DUI, and his public anti-kneeling opinions, but there seem to be some real backlash starting.

Marcus Stroman was asked by a twitter follower what type of contract it would take to play under La Russa. Stroman's reply: “No amount of money honestly. Peace of mind is always priority.”

As far as Bauer and foreign substances, there is a Sarris article at The Athletic.

"A large majority of big league pitchers right now are using some sort of extra-grip substance to impart more spin — and therefore more movement — on the ball. That’s the consensus of nearly 20 major league hitters, pitchers and pitching coaches who spoke to The Athletic in the last month. The median answer was more than three-quarters of the league, but five respondents thought the portion was much closer to 100 percent."


https://theathletic.com/2183861/2020/11/09/pitchers-pine-tar-grip-mlb-time-to-legalize/
Bauer is the only pitcher I know of who has really put his name on making it public.

I am interested to know what is considered an impact player by Atkins.

The latest from Bob Elliot is that the Jays are interested in Andrelton Simmons. It's huge that there's no compensation attached to him, but I'd be really nervous about committing a lot of money. So much of his value is tied to his fielding, and he's had ankle issues the last two years. MLBTR has him going to the Yankees at 1/12, but maybe the Jays could land him with a guaranteed second year. I hope they go after Semien instead.

Elliott, rather. My apologies.

Stephen Brunt made a good point the other day about where these sources are coming from re: the Jays being aggressive. This is Nightengale, Heyman, both reporting on Toronto and Springer and a local Cleveland reporter (in connection with Lindor). This is usually a good sign that there's movement if it's coming from both national and beat writers.

I hope the Jays are in the middle of the Arenado discussion as well. This was written over the weekend in the Denver paper, and it sure looks like he'll be somewhere else in 2021.

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/11/08/nolan-arenado-trevor-story-rockies-choice/

If the Jays are able to add Arenado or Lindor through trade, I'd be fine with short term deals for guys like Odorizzi and Bradley Jr. to shore up the rest of the roster.

Andrelton Simmons is not a guy you move a star (which Bo is close to being) for. A career 91 OPS+, his UZR/150 is excellent at 17.0 lifetime, just 4.0 last year, his only season below 13. I just don't see that being high impact enough to risk getting into a 'kiss my purple butt' situation.

Reading that article Petey Baseball - it sounds like the Rockies are a perfect team for the Jays to talk to about a big deal ala the 2013 Miami deal - they want to dump as much salary as possible and the Jays have the space. Trevor Story is obviously a key - who wouldn't want a SS for whom a 118 OPS+ is a poor year? 5.3 UZR/150 last year, 2.7 lifetime so he is solid on defense plus offense is great. Just entering his age 28 season - he should be less than Lindor in all respects. CF is a mess there so that area they can't help - best is Charlie Blackmon who was a negative UZR guy in CF but now is in RF where he was a +9.9 last year but lifetime -3.1. Nolan Arenado before last year was all-world on both defense and offense (gold glove every season literally, 120 OPS+ lifetime but just a 84 last year) but super-expensive ($27-35 mil a year until 2026 with a post 2021 opt out clause). German Marquez is their #1 starter, signed through 2024 at a very reasonable rate. Mix him with Arenado and you have something.

Looking at the Rockies I don't see much to grab beyond those 3 plus Blackburn. Antonio Senzatela had an excellent year but his K/9 is lower than one would hope for. Hmm... Jays could take on Arendo and Blackburn's contracts ($35 + $21 mil next year and in 2022) but would need some bargains as well to make it work (such as Marquez). It would all depend how realistic the Rockies are on how hard moving salary is and how good a deal they are willing to give due to that.

Oh would that be beautiful. Arendo, Blackburn, and Marquez - then the Jays turn around and trade someone from the OF to open up a slot. The Jays would immediately be the favorites in the AL East I'd figure and the pitchers would be cheering big time that Vlad won't be at 3B, instead the best fielder there right now in MLB would be.

Yeah. Well, it's drama that won't affect us much.
Not sure what the sentiment is over there.
Lots of people detached from reality these days.

I don't see the fit there honestly, unless Simmons is willing to be a super utility guy.

Arenado has an opt out and Lindor has one year left.
Really, if Lindor was already on the Jays roster I'd be moving him for a bunch of prospects and installing Bo at short.
Another bad year and Lindor could be quite affordable on the free agent market.
The Jays once traded for Scott Rolen and he shortly decided that he didn't want to be in Toronto.
Even Encarnation wanted an overpay to stay here.
Toronto is not LA or NY. It's not where people dream to be playing.
Trade for young guys under team control or sign free agents so they actually commit to playing here.
Arenado will stay there and Lindor will probably end up in New York.

A few notes and responses...

"Andrelton Simmons is not a guy you move a star (which Bo is close to being) for."

Simmons is exactly the kind of guy I would move Bo over for if it means all world defense and pitching improvement. It's the most important position to me along with CF and C. With Tulowitzki and Martin I became a believer in elite defensive players.

Matt Chapman is the best defensive 3B in baseball, not Arenado, but yes Arenado is out of this world as well.

Simmons vs Bo... career figures...

• UZR/150: 17 vs 0.3 (2020: 4.0 vs 5.9)
• DRS/1000 IP: 20.89 vs 5.18 (strangely both were negative this year)
• OOZ/1000 IP: 72.6 vs 110.6

As a general rule you shouldn't put too much weight on a single season and Bo hasn't even had a full season yet. But that said, looking at these stats you can see Simmons is the better defender for his career however, in 2020 they were roughly equal. Is Simmons dropping (he is 31)? His defense is all he has - his bat is respectable but he is a bottom of the order hitter (317 OBP, 91 wRC+ lifetime and guys rarely get better in their 30's).

Geez, just hit me I should define stuff - OOZ is outs out of zone (IE: went far and wide to get to the ball - I see this as a sign of potential range), DRS (defensive runs saved), UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, one of my favorites - normalized to 150 games). UZR and DRS are vs an average player. OOZ are a raw total.

John Northey, I agree with your comparison with the Marlins trade. That was AA's fourth off-season as G.M., this is Atkins fifth. Jays were not in the position in Nov 2012 that the Jays are now, and AA still went for it. The Jays operate differently now than they did then, but five years seems around the benchmark where the F.O. can be judged fairly based on their track record. Some on this site would say it's fantasy to suggest they have a real shot (or shouldn't do it) at landing a Lindor or an Arenado or another blockbuster is in the works, but I'm just going off of what the guys making the decisions are saying. Very rarely in this teams history have we had the G.M. or the President (or in this case, both) blatantly come out and say they're going to spend a lot of money this off-season to improve the team. Maybe the older Bauxites can fill me in on the 80's. Gillick definitely 91-92-93. Ricciardi in the '05-06 off-season. I guess what was truely unique about the Reyes-Buherle-Johnson-Bonafacio trade was that it came out of nowhere, and nobody really thought AA was going to make that kind of a move so early in his tenure. 

John Northey as for your comments about Arenado, it made me think about the Atkins comment earlier in the off-season "we're looking to fill that value in with a single player", or something to that effect. If you get Arenado, then Rowdy and Vlad share 1B and DH (which I'm fine with) and you move Biggio to 2nd where he's fine.

John,

Your argument is futile for me. I watch both of these players and it's night and day. I don't view analytics as be all end all. Simmons gets to way more balls, I don't care what underlying numbers suggest. Simmons has a Canon arm. Simmons looks a lot taller and anger and he can cover slot plays to both sides. Most important, he doesn't drop the ball or make casual errors.

Numbers don't tell you everything in this case. I think it's a trap stretch to paint Bo as a player who has potential defensively, and to compare him to someone like Simmons defensively just crazy.

Looks "range" and a real "stretch" to compare...

Haven't watched enough non-Jays games to have an opinion on Simmons beyond what the numbers say so I go by them. For example, eye tests told people Cal Ripken wasn't a good shortstop on defense but stats said he was amazing due to his extremely good positioning (on his own, not like today) and instincts. Like I said, one year isn't enough to judge a player fully so Bo might not be as decent as he appears (statistically above average and able to get to a lot of stuff but doesn't always know what to do with it) while Simmons is well established as a high end defensive shortstop. With Simmons the natural tenancy for shortstops to lose a step in their 30's mixed with his meh bat (at best) makes me go 'no thanks'. If Bo was like Vlad on defense then yes, it would make sense, but with Espinal around we have an all glove guy who doesn't hit already (not at Simmons peak but might be matching going forward). Unless Simmons is crazy cheap and the Jays feel Bo belongs at 2B or 3B long term I don't see the point. Now, someone like Story or Lindor - that is a big jump up.

The Miami trade was exciting in that it gave Jays fans (me too) and the US and Canada media that the Jays were the favorite to win a WS. If I recall correctly. But that did not happen. We were not close to making the playoffs.

In hind sight I now believe that it was a bad trade and it cost Beeston and AA their jobs. IMO Miami hustled AA into taking big contracts for old players. AA also got S Santos very cheap. Possibly damaged goods. Y Escobar and C Rasmus were also thrilling trades. But they did not work out.

Dickey and Donaldson were good/great trades. Dickey gave us innings and Donaldson blossomed.

I wouldn't call the Dickey trade good when you consider Dickey had 7.1 WAR with the Jays while Syndergaard has given the Mets a 14.5 WAR and is only 26 years old. I know he has had Tommy John surgery and even if he never pitched again, the Mets still got the better of the deal.

Agreed the Mets won, but Syn was an A ball pitcher when traded - those have a high rate of attrition. The Mets got lucky. Jays iirc gave them a choice of their big 3 kids at the time - Sanchez, Stroman, or Thor. The Mets made the right choice.

No argument from me ISLAND BOY. Syndergaard had very high potential that he seems to be achieving. So definitely he is the better player. But Dickey gave us exactly what we wanted. A solid #2 innings eater.

Getting Cone with rookie J Kent going the other way and prospect M Young for a not great pitcher were trades that gave away a lot more WAR than we received. We gained on the Guzman trade. I hope I am right in my guessing about the WAR numbers. All the players involved in this paragraph, except Cone were expected to do not much IMO. So Kent and Young over performed IMO.

Yelich for Bo (+ I presume) would have been a trade with few complaints (maybe). Yelich has performed and his salary was good. Bo has to still perform. If he does it will be at a lower salary than Yelich.

"Dickey and Donaldson were good/great trades."


Umm...Donaldson trade was fantastic and helped the Jays make the playoffs a couple of times. Dickey trade was awful. D'arnaud was a top-25 prospect and Syndergaard a top-100 with upside and the Jays got a pretty good innings eater. By WAR, $ value, or any measure, the trade was a disaster. The trade (or something similar) may have been justifiable in 2015 when the Jays were close but giving up so much in 2013 was terrible.

Stripling for K Williams is another gamble. Everyone knows what Stripling is capable of. Williams on the other hand is a huge unknown. I think Williams, Pardinho and Van Eyk all have a shot at #11 on my list of prospects. Winner to me is Pardinho.

In Williams we could lose. LAD cannot lose this trade unless Stripling becomes a solid #2. LAD has Kershaw and Buehler and did have Ryu and Maeda. Add Urias, May and Gonsolin. Better add D Price as well. So very rich in SP depth and have what looks like adequate replacement for Stripling.

Trades are funny things. Need to do a good article on them sometime - pretty sure it has been done but fun to do every so often. Quick takes on a the Cone/Kent one...

Cone for Kent - classic win now for future potential. Jays got 1.6 bWAR and a WS title and 2 draft picks (Matt Farner & Tony Medrano neither made the majors) - Jays got 7 picks from free agent losses after 1993 - one hit big in Chris Carpenter (via Henke), the rest were flops. Kent in 5 years with the Mets produced 8.4 bWAR before being part of a trade for Carlos Baerga and Alvaro Espinoza (ick), later traded again for Matt Williams then he went nuts and got a near HOF resume in SF. One could say the Jays lost that trade on pure WAR, but in respect that mattered the Jays won.

I would enjoy a Jays trade thread/study but you have a busy life (John N). I will put in a few trade tidbits to help make the off season more enjoyable. For D Price we traded some good prospects. We are losing big time on WAR I suspect. But we made the final 4 and Boston got hurt by that insane contract.

I do think that current success for future potential is a good reason to trade.

Do we "stand Pat" or trade for the sake of trading. M Young comes to mind.

Trade for the sake of trading rarely works. The 'stand Pat' stretch from late 1987 until 1989 was painful - the team was close. But from the end of 1987 until March of 1989 there wasn't a single trade - broke by a minor one Cliff Young (0.6 WAR lifetime) for DeWayne Buice (0.9 WAR lifetime). The end of April had the big one Jesse Barfield for Al Leiter (helpful years later). In July got Mookie Wilson and Jim Acker in trades which helped a lot in the 1989 charge for the division. 1988's team was solid all around but weak in the rotation (while leaving future 20 game winner David Wells in the pen) due to breaking in a kid (Todd Stottlemyre 69 ERA+), giving an old vet a shot who helped a lot in late '87 (Mike Flanagan 93 ERA+), and giving an old warhorse a slot (Jim Clancy 87 ERA+) while Key & Stieb were solid. Really, that team should've won a LOT more than 87 games but Jimy Williams (future manager of the year ::eyeroll::) ran the team into the ground again (Cecil Fielder at 3B/2B at times ... yikes)

Williams is a huge guys who has the potential to develop into an average starter.
Pardinho looked like he could become like Stroman, a short guy with great stuff.
Except he hasn't been able to stay healthy and there's no telling what happens once he returns from TJ.

Too early to say anything about Van Eyk.

Watching Stripling pitch, I wasn't impressed.
He's a finesse pitcher with good control but the stuff looked pretty average.

I think the worse trade you can make is trading top prospects for expensive guys.
The reason to make those trades is to save money.
The Dickie trade was made because he was willing to sign an affordable extension.
They could have signed a better pitcher and kept Thor and D'arnaud and would have not needed a special catcher.
But that would have cost money.
It's like using your Air Miles points to get a 20% discount on something that will go on sales for cheaper if you wait.
Trading for guys with one year left only works for the top spending teams.
The Donaldson trade was the opposite.
The A's didn't want to pay Donaldson.
Also, it wasn't for only one year. Donaldson was willing to sign an extension but at a huge premium. 7/200+

There is a report that Cleveland wants 3 major leaguers for Lindor.
Seems like the Mets would be a good fit.

It was Nicolino not Roman who was offered along with Sanchez and Syndergaard.

The Marlins leaked the trade to the media before the Jays accepted it because they wanted to put pressure on the young GM because they knew it was such a good deal for them.

It could not have been Nicolo since he was a Marlin.

It wasn't a great trade from the Marlins point of view either.
They flipped all the players they got as soon as they could.
Jose Reyes was still an exciting player when the Jays got him. Kinda like Bo right now, actually.
But he was on a back loaded contract and his glove was degrading fast.
Mark Buehrle was a solid middle of the order pitcher.
Josh Johnson was injured and close to free agency.
Bonifiacio was an average utility player.
John Buck could catch and Arencibia was chasing every pitch.

Alvarez was solid for a few years then got injured.
Escobar was almost as good as Reyes for a third of the salary but  he didn't play one game in Miami.
Desclani was not quite as good as Buerhle but had 6 years of control left and wouldn't be ready until 2015.
Marisnick became an average outfielder. If that.
Hechavarria never hit enough.
Nicolo is still struggling.
Nothing to say about Mathis.

I don't want any part of Arenado. Not with that 2020 performance; not with the opt-out and not with that massive contract. The amount of money I'd want Colorado to eat would make it a non-starter for them.

Financial flexibility, years of control and building a sustainable contender seem to be the the major factors that the Jays FO are concerned with.

Based on history NYY and Boston contend every year and possibly both make the playoffs 7 of 10 years. When both make the playoffs there is only 1 spot available for the Jays and 2 for the other 13 teams. This means IMO that the other 13 teams try to build, open and extend a window of contending.

I can see financial flexibility if expensive long term contracts are shied away from. Betts and Stanton are great examples. Years of control mean cheap years IMO. Prospects and young players like Kirk and Vlad.

Sustainable contender would be a supply of very good young prospects. Martin, Groshans, O Martinez and Pearson. You get Martin if you are very bad. Groshans was a surprising pick at that high spot. Martinez is easier I suppose. Pearson can be drafted late in round 1. Pick 20-25 should get you Pearson, Warmoth, probably Groshans or J Harris. Success in that area of the draft is crucial.

The Red Sox don't have a good farm system and they still got a few back contracts to deal with.
Benintindi and Martinez had down years.
Connor Wong and Jeter Downs will probably debut soon. 

Sale will miss most of 2021.
The pen will need a major overhaul.

We'll see where they stand in a year, but for now, they're not projected to finish ahead of Toronto and it would take a lot to change that.

Boston still has to cover 32M of David Price's salary over the next 2 years along with the final 12M due to Pedroia this year.

Boston was great in 2018 and won the WS. Probably cheating.

No playoffs for Boston the next 2 years. 8 playoff teams in 2020. If they miss the playoffs the next 2 years 2021 and 2022 the fan grief will be enjoyable.

I cannot really see Boston as a bottom dweller.

So TB and NYY plus 2 ALC teams make the playoffs.

The Jays are probably not ready unless that big contract player is added. That impact player will make the Jays stronger. But Bichette has 320 ABs in the majors so I think 400 more ABs is needed to adjust to the majors on offense and defense. Vlad has almost 700 ABs but his base running had mistakes and poor judgement. So patience is needed for these young players and the team to learn to play smart in the majors, like TB. 24 ABs for Kirk. But he may learn how to play smart as fast as Biggio.

Former Blue Jays scout and Anthopolous deputy Perry Minasian is apparently expected to be named the GM of the Los Angeles Angels.