This is probably a question that Magpie can answer. I'm wondering if there are similarities between this year's squad and the 1982 one that was the last to finish under .500 before the Jays started their 11-year winning streak. I'm thinking mainly in terms of age/experience.

Then I decided to take a look at the 82 Jays team page at bbref. The starting hitters were young - 5 guys between 22 and 25, only 2 at or above 30, and I honestly have no recollection of Wayne Nordhagen, but he was the DH in 72 games.

Of the young hitters, a few stuck around long enough to be on the team when they made the postseason in 85. Pitching was a different story - Stieb & Clancy were there in 82, but Key, Henke et al were a few years away.

So perhaps some superficial similarities with young hitters and the pitching perhaps still to come. But I'm sure there are countless examples of teams in the current Jays situation that never put it together as well.

I just wanted to mention that Ray Chapman died 100 years ago today, one day after being hit in the head by a pitch. It was a grey and dirty baseball on an overcast afternoon. There's a nice remembrance of him over at The Athletic, and of course he figures in my own epic (more than 11,000 words!) piece about the 1920 season. He was a very good ball player - he was just 29 when he died, but I think he was on a Hall of Fame course. And by all accounts he was an extremely likeable man.

The Baltimore series is very important here.  Two Lefties. I'd like to see McGuire for the first one but I expect Jansen will catch Ryu. So probably bad match up for the catchers for 2 of the 3 games.
Cobb has been good. The others, not so much.

Ryu vs Cobb
Pearson vs LeBlanc
Roark vs Milone

Velasquez or Howard vs (probably a bullpen game with Gaviglio as extra or maybe  Thorton is back)
Nola? vs Anderson

Elfin and Arrieta are going against Boston and Wheeler would be on short rest.

I'd take Zeuch, Reid-Foley or Murphy for one of those starts. Beats watching Gaviglio and having no pen the rest of the week.

Shoemaker vs Yarbrough
Ryu vs Chirinos
Pearson vs Snell
Roark vs TBD

Third time's charm?
At least they only see Shoemaker and Roark twice.
The Jays could still outpitch them.

Nothing is sure, but it's best to bank that young players will improve and that old players will slowly get worse.
The Red Sox got really good really fast and they fell off a cliff rather quickly.
Cleveland is probably a good example of the Jays development model.
Except there is no need for the Jays to sell top players with one year remaining.
At this point, they can't give anyone a big extension either.

Shapiro mentioned that championship teams always need some vet presence.
I'm not sure how they achieve this here, on the position player side.
So, I'm fine if they shuffle young guys in like Groshans, Martin, Kirk and Moreno.

I'll add that I've seen Acuna makes some bad plays, including one that led to Atlanta being eliminated last year. That's how it goes.

I can't say I'm excited by what Grichuk is doing so far, but I am interested. His 137 wRC+ has him 46th of 166 qualified batters. His 10.7% BB rate is far better than his career 5.9% and his 23.2% K rate is the lowest of his career. His PA's just look better to the eye.

The big question is whether it will last. His .400 BABIP is unsustainable. Will his approach revert back if the hits stop falling? Probably yes, though I hope not. With so many hitters selling out contact for power, it's refreshing that someone is having some success going in the opposite direction.

this year's squad and the 1982 one

The 1982 team couldn't hit. Only one team in the league scored fewer runs. Their success, such as it was (and 78-84 seemed wildly successful) was built entirely on the arms of three young starting pitchers - Stieb, Clancy, and Leal - who worked in a four man rotation and pitched at least 249 IP, all three of them. The offense did have a couple of promising 22 year old outfielders named Moseby and Barfield, but they weren't much good in 1982.

I sympathize with any skepticism about Grichuk - baseball players, just like people, will generally persist in being exactly what they are. That said, cutting down on the strikeouts is precisely the thing Grichuk has been making a conscious effort to do, since sometime last season. And in 2019, he actually reduced his K rate below 26% for the first time in his career. He wasn't rewarded at the time, largely because of terrible luck on his Balls in Play. But at any rate, this is the very thing Grichuk has been trying to accomplish.

Now those of us who lived through Kevin Pillar saying he was going to try to do the very same thing every year, and inevitably turning back into Kevin Pillar a few weeks later... we're going to want to see a little more, I would think.

The improved K rate is the big thing for Grichuk.
He always hit the ball hard.

Great slide by Lourdes.

Not too often in today's game that we don't get our first base on balls until the seventh inning.

Ryu and Cobb were locating well, but the ump also seemed to have a pretty generous strike zone.

From Shi Davidi:

Bo Bichette's second opinion is in, diagnosed with Grade 1 strain of lateral collateral ligament in his right knee, per source. Considered minor, no long-term impact, rest of knee sound. Injury simply needs time. #BlueJays mapping out rehab plan now.

Well, fun game to watch - even with the horrid ump behind the plate (close pitches would change from pitch to pitch as to being a ball or strike, can't recall who the Jays hitter was, but 3 pitches in a row hit the exact same spot and 2 were balls while the final one was called a strike, how he avoided getting so mad as to be tossed over that is beyond me). I'd have probably left Ryu in for one more inning but can understand pulling when they did. Gotta love Biggio.

That was Shaw.

It was worse for Shoemaker because it caused 3 runs and tied the game.
In an alternate universe, Jansen recognizes that Shoe is fuming and got talk to him.
Better still, he reminds him that the hitter is a Japanese who is used to seeing splitters and they go with something high or outside.

I believe the umps are traveling with the teams so you see the same ones for long stretches.
Some umps have zone that changes with the count. Or so it seems.

I hope Tellez is OK.
He made some nice plays.
2 lefties coming so, he could see some benching.
Hernandez could DH a game here.
I'm expecting Espinal today. He hasn't played in a while. 

The only negative from the game was that Baltimore was able to rest their pen.

Nate P needs a good/great game. He must pitch well and the Jays cannot give extra ABs because of errors.

I was actually checking FG's 31-40 when you posted, Mike. I'm a big believer in Biggio, but I don't see him making the list - ZIPs just doesn't see a high enough ceiling.

Posted something on the O's a few days ago that was mentioned in the broadcast last night. Replacement/sub-replacement guys they've plucked from other orgs for basically nothing and turned into contributors with years of team control remaining.

Jays did have one in Urshela, but it was the Yankees (thanks to Phil Plantier in AAA) who tweaked his swing and turned him into a player with real value.

On the other hand, the O's traded a 27 year old (at the time) outfielder that had been in their system for almost 6 years without sniffing the majors for a non-prospect. Mike Yastrzemski has been worth 4 WAR in less than a seasons worth of games and is 1-2 with Tatis jr. as the most valuable player in MLB this season.

Replacement/sub-replacement guys they've plucked from other orgs for basically nothing and turned into contributors with years of team control remaining.

It seems to me that the Jays' pro scouting on hitters leaves a bit to be desired. They appear to have more success on the pitching side, however.

ZIP's is unable to recognize makeup. Fans are only somewhat able to recognize it. Biggio, to me, seems a guy with great makeup, doing everything he can to be the best version of himself. Pillar was a great example of this. To me, guys like Lawrie and Rasmus were the opposite. Oozing with talent, but having only periods of success because of their make-up issues.

"It seems to me that the Jays' pro scouting on hitters leaves a bit to be desired."

Maybe that's true, but the coaching side plays a huge part as well. The Jays seemed to see the talent in Urshela by picking him up, just couldn't find the right tweak to bring it out. Happ had more talent than he showed the first go round with the Jays. It took Searage to turn him into more than a journeyman. We all know the Bautista story. Can't pin his lack of success in Pittsburgh on their scouts, although if Jose never met Dwayne and Cito why wouldn't their scouts be blamed?

One thing odd from the game last night was one of the Oriole batters, who was supposed to be in the on deck circle, sneaked way over so he could see the action on Ryu's pitches. I don't remember ever watching a game and being able to see the on deck hitter entirely visible in the home plate picture while the man ahead of him was batting.

The TV announcers mentioned it a couple of times as he did it at least twice and wondered why the Blue Jays didn't say anything. Are the Jays too nice? If I was Montoyo I would have said something to the ump between innings, at least. I know it's a small thing but it makes me wonder if Montoyo is just too laid back, and if the Jays would benefit from having someone with a bit more fire at the helm.

Re Biggio and forecast models... They see a 25-year old who doesn't hit for average and has struck out in a third of his at-bats. The models likely view those numbers as bigger drivers than his ancillary skills: power, walks, stolen base acumen, etc.

I am rooting for Biggio and respect his broad skills and baseball IQ. But the average and K rates are at lease cause for some worry. That said, he doesn't need to hit for much in the way of average to be a contributor.

There are different types of higher K rates. Lack of pitch recognition, which in the majors usually shows up as high K rate, low BB rate, is the real killer. But that's not Biggio's issue. His high K's last year were paired with high BB's.

Both are down this year. His 21.6 K% is actually lower than MLB 23.2% average. His 10.2% BB higher than 9.2% MLB average. His identically low .234 BA's are partly due to his fly ball tendencies. Would be a concern if the power wasn't there. But his ISO has gone from .195 last year to .260 this year. If he can keep it up, those "flaws" might not even be flaws at all.

Yesterday was Cobb's worse start so far this year.
Today's starter, LeBlanc has 10 Ks in 17.2 innings and an ERA of 7.13. 

Cobb could be a trade target for Baltimore, but would anyone offer anything of value?
His 2020 contract isn't an issue with only 1 month left, but he's making 15M in 2021.
Could be just a salary dump. Would the Os do that if they're in contention?
They still have no pitching lined up for next year.

Dylan Bundy has finally turned it around. He's 3-1 with an ERA of 1.57 with the Angels.
None of the 4 guys they got for him are in their top 30 prospect list.

There's a bunch of griping from former Jay Chris Woodward and some others that Tatis Jr shouldn't have swung at a 3-0 pitch he hit for a grand slam (because the Padres were up too much so you have to take pitches and not try too hard) that I find really annoying. I'm glad some of the coverage is mixed on supporting versus pushing back, but I wish we could end all these stupid unwritten rules. Enjoy the talents of an exciting young player and as long as the game is being played, play to win!

See https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/rangers-fernando-tatis-jr-unwritten-rules/xfovfsa5c7o11cyl29c5acnhg or others for examples.

Hi Michael, Joe Posnanski wrote about this at the Athletic. You and he are of the same mind (as am I)

I think that different coaches have different "tweaks" they have learned that they can apply to swings, based on personal experience and/or research. One finds that attacking early pitches worked for him, so everyone has to swing early in the count. Another found that holding back and working the count for a good pitch worked better, so that's what's taught. Pulling the ball, hitting everything opposite field, swinging for the fences, line drives, putting the ball in play with 2 strikes vs. swinging away, etc, etc.

Some players don't need any coaching / help, and those are usually the superstars. Of those who need 1 or 2 adjustments to become good players, it's a bit of a crapshoot as to whether they end up with an organization where the coach at that time can teach them the tweak they need to succeed. I don't think swinging super early (a la Jose Bautista) would have turned Ryan Goins or Munenori Kawasaki into sluggers. But maybe that's all the current coaching staff had to offer - how to swing super early and/or launch the ball. The fact that we barely score any runs without a home run these days seems to support that theory a bit.

Get moved to a different team where a different adjustment is available to try, and they might do better. Eg. Vladdy seemingly needs to learn how to launch pitches a bit more, rather than hitting them into the ground at 110 mph.

Similarly for pitching - if Pete Walker (I don't remember too much about him) had success with fastball/slider/curveball, he might not emphasize the changeup / splitter much. But that might be what some of our pitchers need(ed). So they don't improve, trying to focus more and more on the slider. But, get moved to Pittsburg and someone who (just as an example, I'm guessing on the actual pitches I mention) emphasizes splitter / sinker / changeup more, something that's easier for you, and suddenly, you're a better pitcher...
I think that happens to a lot of "phenoms" - they have early success, then the "pros" figure out how to pitch to them / hit them, and then the coaches can't help them adjust to the very best opponents, because they don't have the right bag of tricks. I'm thinking of Travis Snider, JP Arencibia (amazing first couple of games!), Brett Lawrie, etc..

Re: the Tatis HR - the article I read mentioned the Rangers just a little while ago came back from a 7-run deficit in the last 3 innings. Were the Rangers ALSO going to stop swinging? Then they should have just invoked the mercy rule and called the game..
I COULD see if, if it was 15-0 in the 8th and the team up by 15 was in 1st place, and the other team was a last-place team with no realistic chance of winning anything..

Jays up 7-1 against the Rays in the 7th? I'd give us 50-50 odds of winning that game.. Maybe a bit less..

Does anyone have a good grasp of what the prospects in the 60-man group are doing? I'm missing my minor league updates.

Almost no info coming out of the Jays Rochester facilities or any other teams camps. 20 teams have offered to share info with each other (to facilitate any potential trades), but that means 10 don't even want to go that far. Mini Area 51's.

If the game is out of reach, throw a position player out there or someone who needs to pitch.
It's bad enough that the ump will call anything that's close a strike on a 3-0 pitch.

I see it as a misdirection from the manager not pulling a pitcher who is struggling and driving his numbers into the ground.

I remember Correa being upset with Osuna for throwing a cutter instead of a fastball on a 3-0 or 3-1 count which Correa hit a ground ball out.

Those are BS rules. Play to win and don't cheat.

Hazel Mae asked Grichuk if Buffalo was starting to feel like home and if they would be happy to go back there to play the Phillies.

He answered that (They) were happy to be playing in a familiar major league park here in Baltimore.
Ouch.

I'm assuming the prospects in the player pools are hitting the gym and playing wiffle ball every day.

I won't presume to know what the projection models are doing, and I am sure they are more sophisticated than I am giving them credit for. I'm just guessing that a low batting average probably doesn't portend well in projections.

That said, anyone that fits Biggio's profile that we can look to for inspiration? Aside from his speed, he is showing old man tools right now which I believed was not what you wanted from a young player.

end all these stupid unwritten rules.

Word. I was happy to see some pitchers - Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Colin McHugh - saying they had no problem with Tatis swinging. I also liked Anthony Rizzo's comment: "If we're supposed to take on 3-0, aren't they supposed to throw a fastball on 3-1?"

And shame on manager Jayce Tingler for not backing his player. One wonders how he would have reacted if Tatis had hit a groundball to short and walked leisurely down the line. It's OK, we've got a seven run lead. Somehow, I don't think so.

Waguespack optioned to taxi squad. Merryweather recalled.

The most pathetic part of the Tatis affair is that Woodward would tell the reporters that the pitch to Machado "just got away" and not one would call him out on his bald-faced lie.

If anyone did, they might as well find a new line of work. Because it would be almost impossible for that reporter to get any more of those cliched, insipid interviews that are so vital to sports beat reporting.

I don't know if I see Biggio capable of hitting .280, like someone said upthread. There's a bit too much K in his game and a lot of flyballs, leading to a lower babip. But with his walks and extra base power he'll be good offensive contributor even if he only hits .240. I agree with those who like his makeup - from what we can see it looks like he's got it. An underrated stat from him is that he's 17/17 in steals attempts in his MLB career so far. Heady player.

The goalposts have moved quite a bit though, so the "old man skills" numbers don't look exactly like they used to.

I am more optimistic about his future than the models are and was only trying to guess at why they were less sanguine. You're right about old man skills. The whole damn league is old man skills these days. It's just the way the game is played.

If Biggio keeps hitting like this 234/330/494 - good for a 120 OPS+, I'll be very happy. Vlad's BA is almost identical at 233, but his OBP/Slg are 300/411 resulting in a 91 OPS+ at 1B vs Biggio's at 2B (plus a bit of RF).

4 guys over 100 now for OPS+, with Biggio's 120 the lowest of the 4. 140's for Hernandez and Grichuk, 181 for Bichette. Don't forget Mr. IL Fischer at 143 (in 15 PA).

Sadly Gurriel Jr hasn't found which end of the bat to use yet with his ugly 227/257/318 line (56 OPS+). Alford is now outhitting Gurriel with his 200/200/500 81 OPS+ line but of course both have few PA (10 for Alford, 70 for Gurriel). No Jay has 100 PA yet. What a weird year this is going to be statistically.

So it’s safe to say that the hitters have caught up to the pitchers.

Anthony Alfords bay looked real slow on those two fastballs.

bat

There will be some very interesting future debates about how the lack of a minor league season will have interfered with player development. Pearson to me looks like a guy who needs a bit of time in AAA, but at the same time, shagging flies with the extras in Rochester isn’t going to cut it. Hope this lost year doesn’t set him back, like Halladay’s early struggles did.

Wilmer Font in a game situation? This had better work.

Hey, if he follows up with what Halladay did (a HOF career) I'll be more than happy with an ugly result this year out of Pearson and even an uglier one next year. Of course, odds are very low on that but it is fun to dream. I remember thinking how dumb that first long term contract Ash signed Halladay to was as he went to A ball to recover, but it worked out in the end I'd say.

This was one ugly game and I spent the evening yelling at the screen.

Font is an enigma.
Yamaguchi isn't a complete disaster.

Pearson does not need any more time in AAA.
He is demolishing righties but is struggling against lefties.
For some reason he's afraid to throw his fastball.
He has to lay off the sliders against lefties.
I wonder if his arm is sore.
I can't imagine the coaching staff not telling him to throw more fastballs otherwise.

Alford was a huge reason for the rally.
I don't think that his bat speed his terrible, it's just that at AAA you see tons of junkballers and few flamethrowers. He needs to start it earlier. That's something that can be learned.
But even without it, there is room for a basestealer who can hit junk on the team.

Very peculiar choices in late innings.
They used the exhausted high pressure relief arms to stay in a tie game.
It works--because Baltimore collapse in the 10th with errors and bad plays--but that's not playing the numbers. If Hernandez has a sore back, it's a tough call to bring him to play defense in overtime.
Alford would have been an automatic out, but Teoscar wasn't close to hitting Scott either.

I was waiting to see Merryweather. Today, I guess.

Vald is such an anchor on this team on both sides of the ball - remember some posters wanted the Jays to sign Vlad to a 300m (or whatever he wanted) contract before he made his debut - even if Vlad becomes an offensive juggernaut, I would not want the Jays betting that his body will hold up as he ages.

When the season started I had the idea that there would be many pitchers going 3-5 innings out of the pen or as a starter. Seems I was wrong. High mark for Kay 3.1 innings 0 starts. For Hatch 1 start 2.1 innings, not a start 2.2 innings. So a lot of 1 inning guys.

Then I checked TB and NYY. They too are using a lot of 1 inning guys.

After all those late inning blunder losses, it feels good to be re-gifted.
The only good news on the Vlad front is that he's coming in early for extra cardio.

It's weird. Once in a while, Vlad hits a no-doubter on a hanging ball with a swing that looks different.
Like, he sees the ball and go get it outside of his usual swing path.
Other times he chases balls and try to golf something through the shift.
He's best when he's more like Biggio.
He needs to take his walks, wait for a pitch to hit and punish the mistakes.

I don' t know if Grichuk's adjustments are for real, but so far, so good.

With so many teams making the playoffs, I'd say prepare to do both as a small winning/losing streak can alter your landscape considerably. I'd also like to give Kay a few starts and use Pearson as a multi innings guy - I'm intrigued to see the long lost Merryweather.

It's an unusual year to make a trade with no minor leagues running. If a team was trading a veteran for prospects then they'd have to go by scouting reports from 2019 and hope a year off from competitive ball won't hinder their progress.

"Deadline question: fish or cut bait?"

Depends what you can get if you trade. Because Giles got hurt, Jays don't have a lot of valuable pieces to trade that aren't long-term pieces so they might as well just stand mostly pat. If someone wants to give up something significant for Grichuk or Shaw or Bass, by all means, pull the trigger.

Pearson had some elbow discomfort last night so he has gone on the IL. Waguespack is back.

The elbow might explain his fastball usage and wildness.

Some teams are going to exchange Rapsodo, Trackman and video -
Fromm Kiley McD Aug 13:

There's separate opt-ins for both data and video, as some Alternate Sites are limited in what the facility can accommodate. Clubs were instructed to share whatever info is recorded. Indications are about 2/3 of clubs have opted-in. Data/video flow to clubs hasn't started yet.

I remember when Shapiro bragged about the Jays' investment in cutting edge health and fitness for the organization.



meanwhile all the kids are obese and injured.

13 days to the trade deadline.

In the NL looks like only Pittsburgh and SF are out.

In the AL the top 2 teams in each division have records over .600 except Houston who had to go on a 6 gm winning streak to get to .565 2nd.

But 13/14 games to go before the deadline. Which is about 40% of the 1st half. The 2nd half of the season is about 40% of the whole season. Depending on double headers.

J Miller, J Petricka and R Tejada can be traded as experienced depth for very little I imagine. Anyone can get hot. D Hudson did last year. These non roster players may move if it means a little playing time for them. Good PR for next years non roster signings.

Yeah, you can't have too many starting pitchers.

The only trade I envision are guys that have to be dropped.
Gaviglio? Font? Pannone. Maybe Cole.

Teams will probably ask about Shaw. He's a free agent.
Not expecting much in return. For anybody.

Maybe trade Giles is there is a real return.

I don't think they need both McKinney and Fisher.

Shaw is not a FA unless the Jays don't offer him arbitration. Still control him next year if they want to.

Nice to see an opponent having TOOTBLAN's.

And as bad as the Jays defence has looked, FG has more than 20 teams having played worse defensively thus far.

I could get used to this version of Grichuk.

Grichuk has stepped up big time. Great to see.

Grichuk is making me want to channel Cris Carter-era Buddy Ryan - "all he does is hit home runs"

"meanwhile all the kids are obese and injured."

The only obese kid I can think of is Vlad and I think that's mainly on Vlad.I've read multiple articles extolling the Yankees as the top organisation in baseball in terms of being cutting edge in health and fitness,yet the last 2 seasons the Yankees have been bedevilled by injuries - correlation does not imply causation.

correlation does not imply causation.

It does when making false narratives.

That was a pretty good one.

Half a game below .500 and half a game out of the playoffs.
I have no idea why they keep Chris Davis, maybe just to remind their fans why they can't afford pitching?

Still waiting to see Merryweather.

The Phillies have moved Nola to start Friday against Atlanta.
So tomorrow we skip Arrieta, Nola, Wheeler and will see 2 pitchers, Howard and Velazquez  with ERAs of 7.88. Howard is a 23 year old prospect and Velazquez is a 4th or 5th pitcher. 

Under the hood Grichuk looks like maybe he has changed, but need like 250~AB to say for sure.
Under the hood Teoscar early performance isn't promising, his damage is all versus fastballs, he isn't walking at all and still way too much SwStr.
Gurriel has a 270 obp over his last calendar year, seems like the inevitable is finally coming to reality and pitchers figured him out.

I have no idea why they keep Chris Davis, maybe just to remind their fans why they can't afford pitching?

Perhaps they are hoping for him to opt out of this season? He hasn't yet, so any time now would be a good time to finally jettison him. From 2018-2020, he's hitting .169 in over 900 plate appearances. That would be exactly what sunk cost toast looks like.

More on Davis... My math tells me he'll have earned 128M in his career for his paltry 11 WAR, 15 of which came in his one great season and his two good seasons. All the other seasons add up to -4 WAR.

I don't think there is much to trade. Giles is hurt. Who else can the Jays move for value? Bass?

If the Jays can remain around .500 for the next 7-10 days, then they should look to "buy" (whatever buying looks like in 2020 MLB). It doesn't have to be significant moves, but incremental improvements can make a difference in such a small amount of games. One issue the Jays desperately need to fix is bench players who can hit LHP. Drury and Alford are not it. Another issue, especially if Bichette is going to miss a lot of time, is a SS/IF who can cover in the mean time (a Jose Iglesias/Freddy Galvis type). These types of small moves are likely doable.

No one is going to trade significant prospects during this deadline, so look for the salary dumps involving useful players and see where the fits are. If the Jays happen to fall out of it in the next 10 days, then get what you can for Bass, and play out the string. Not much else they can do.

So which deal is worse...

• Chris Davis: 7 years/$161M (2016-22), WAR -3.2 before today for that time frame with 2 1/2 seasons left. Limited to 1B/DH, 0-3 in his one playoff game during that stretch (vs Toronto), pitched 1 inning allowing a run, 4 games in RF (started all 4), 2 at 3B (started the game in one).
• Ryan Howard: 5 years/$125 million (2012-2017), -4.8 WAR. Very poor defensive 1B.
• Albert Pujols: 10 years/$240 million (2012-2021), 14.1 WAR - so at least he has provided some value, but his last year with a 100+ OPS+ was 2016. His worst figures in St Louis were 299/366/541 in his last year there, his best in Anaheim is 285/343/516 his first year there. Crazy drop.

Who'd have thought a contract could rival Howards nightmare one so quickly after that one. 1B/DH signed for his 30's is never a good idea. Look at all 3 of these guys - Pujols should've been safe but he hasn't hit as good as his worst year before leaving St Louis even once in any category...well, he did hit 40 HR one year which was middle of the road for St Louis. Thank goodness the Jays didn't make the mistake of signing Davis. Doesn't appear doing a look back that anyone here was pushing to sign him. So everyone here is smarter than the GM of the O's at the time. Technically any AAAA player would've outperformed Davis from 2016 to now for about $157 million less.

I would think Prince Fielder's $214 million deal over nine years also deserves a little disrespect. The doctors called off the back end of his career over his neck injury, but he was never going to be a good bet to last all that long anyway. (I remember breathing loud and emphatic sighs of relief when he signed Anywhere-But-Here that off-season.)

With the massive open space on the Jays payroll taking on an ugly contract that is no more than 2020/21 would make sense if the player can help. So where are the biggest holes? Defense in the outfield has been ugly, ugly, ugly. But who do you pull? Gurriel or Hernandez? Gurriel has had a poor year so far with the bat but is still under 100 PA and we know from last year he can hit. Hernandez has been a nightmare in the field (gee what a shock) so can he be moved to DH, Tellez to the bench or platooning with Vlad at 1B? Fisher should be back soon so that will make the OF/DH/1B mix a bit more interesting without trades. No other positions jump out at me. I see Espinal as a reasonable backup for Bichette (young, cheap, plays hard).

Pitching has been OK, a bit scary at times but OK with Giles & Thornton on the IL. Big issue is wear and tear on them if the starters don't start getting 5-7 innings on a regular basis. Of course a 10 man bullpen helps. Given how expensive pitching can be I don't see that being where the Jays take a chance.

As much as I'd love a big trade I just don't see it unless something ala how AA did it (he was called 'ninja' for a reason as no one saw most of his big deals coming). Wonder if SD could be conned into dealing Fernando Tatis Jr. for pennies on the dollar ('bad attitude' after hitting a grand slam on a 3-0 count) :) Somehow I doubt it.

Now there is some pitching depth, which is nice.
Baltimore is succeeding with the type of pitchers who didn't work for the Jays.
I say give them time.
If Martin becomes an all-star, Baltimore will look very bad down the road.
Their rebuild is far from over.

Boston doesn't have much besides Eovaldi. They sure have fallen hard.
They'll be back next year, but could be vulnerable to injuries.

The Rays have had issues with Snell, Morton and Chirinos was just added to the 10IL.

It's possible they move Pearson to the pen. That would be better than AAA.

There' s enough demand on pitching to trade some guys instead of releasing them, but maybe just for cash.

They saw in Grichuk a guy with tools who could improve.
That's why he got the longish contract.

Gurriel is streaky.  We'll probably see guys getting hot and cold all year. Or another month.

Good catch Magpie - 2012 to 2020 (yes he is still being paid). 7.1 WAR with Texas getting the worst of it, 3 years, 0.1 WAR over 289 games, paying him $9 mil a year since injuries took over (insurance covers $9 mil more, Detroit $6 mil more), $18 mil a year before that (Detroit the other $6 mil). So for that 0.1 WAR Texas paid $18 x 3, $9 x 4 = $90 million. Ouch. Meanwhile Detroit got a few good years from Ian Kinsler as part of the deal. So Detroit paid $46 mil while he was there, and 7 x $6 mil for the years he wasn't = $88 million for 7 WAR. Expensive but not insane vs other deals ($12.6 mil per WAR) plus they got to the WS his first year and the ALCS the next. He didn't do much in the playoffs those 2 years but it is something. Far better for Detroit than either of the Davis or Howard deals and better than Pujols too imo. Poor Texas was screwed over though.

Can't feel sorry for Texas.

Right now, Lance Lynn is pitching like a Cy Young, Kyle Gibson is doing fine, but the rest is not and they have a lot of arms on the IL, including Kluber.

Only 3 regulars with OPS+ over 100. Odor is at 44, Andrus 38 and Calhoun 20.

Still, they are 10-12 and right now it's between them, Baltimore and the Jays for the last playoff spot.

Jake Gardiner was the Teoscar of the Maple Leafs. Fans freaked out over his inexplicable brain cramps. In his defence someone posted Milhouse from the Simpsons quote "What about all the times I didn't wear a tutu?! Nobody ever brings those up!"

We saw the full Teoscar in the 4th where he allowed the Smith single to roll under his glove. But he also did this to help Roark escape the jam.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/comments/ict9vo/teoscar_hernandez_with_an_incredible_throw_to/

That was his 4th OF assist this season. No one has more than 4. FWIW, UZR rates him better than average so far, DRS slightly worse.

It doesn't make sense to buy with a short season, lots of randomness, and next year uncertain as well (we could be in COVID challenges next year too).

It doesn't make sense to sell as the Jays have no real disposable assets or potential rental players and they are on the upward "soon to be competitive (hopefully)" part of the competitive cycle and don't really want to part with any people.

Of course it always makes sense to take value if offered it from someone, and there can be win-win trades of surplus for gaps between teams, or possible challenge trades if we think we could steal value, but it doesn't make sense to go out with a serious view of adding or removing from this team.

If there are useful rentals that fill gaps and cost only %$ and not future valuable players then it might make sense to roll the dice and try with the randomness of the short season and expanded playoffs (since playoffs can pay back the $$), but the team doesn't scream "buyers" and most of the sorts of people that would improve the team would be too valuable to be available for only $.

My guess is, this year's trade deadline is going to be mostly uneventful with so much uncertainty of completing the season...might see a bunch of PTBNLs deals, but who knows might be some surprises.

It's really sad that even with a 10 man bullpen, we have a burnt out bullpen. Montoyo needs to push the starters to go 1-2 more innings. And I really like to see relievers used for 2-3 innings with all the starters in the bullpen. It was good to see it in the last couple of days, but I think it's temporary since they want to preserve some arms due to the double header tomorrow.

Nice with the Rangers losing and the Jays beating Baltimore putting the Jays just 1/2 a game behind Baltimore for the 8th and final slot. Rays beat the Yankees thus pulling the Yankees down a bit - if the Jays finish ahead of either the Rays or Yankees they are in the playoffs (assuming they finish ahead of Baltimore and Boston).

Philly used 3 relievers today, 2 throwing over 25 pitches each and the third 15 so I doubt any are available for tomorrow's games. For the good guys Dolis and Borucki threw 20 each and Hatch 18 so I doubt any are going to pitch tomorrow (or at least not to more than 1 or 2 batters to finish an inning). Bass was at 29 on Tuesday and Yamaguchi 32 so both might need tomorrow off too. So I'd put 5 guys at very little availability. Boy do we need solid starts. Especially in game 1 with Anderson. Thornton one hopes has it for game 2. Expect Kay & Merryweather to get the bulk of innings if either starter is out quickly. Waguespack also although he did throw 29 on Monday so no more than an inning for him I suspect. Romano available to close one of the games (18th his last game 19 pitches), Cole that same day 17 pitches so same status. C'mon Anderson & Thornton be the inning eaters we need tomorrow.

FG has daily updated playoff odds. 6 AL teams have a 97% chance or better. White Sox at 88%. Jays are at 36.1%, but that's the highest odds for the 8th spot. Texas next at 20.6% Royals next at 17.5%, then Angels at 16.1%, barely ahead of the Orioles.

They might be more willing to push Waguespack than others.
Also, they can switch 2 players with the taxi squad. (It's hard to remember who's on it.)
I think they still get one extra guy for the second game of the doubleheader.
Probably Gaviglio.

So basically, the next 40 games are about the Jays, the Rangers, the Royals, the Angels and the Orioles.
For all other American League teams, it's all already settled.

Don't believe those FG odds. There is no way that 3 teams, let alone 6, have a 97% chance of making the playoffs, 20 games into a 60 game season which can easily be disrupted by the pandemic. If those odds were correct, the probability that all 6 make it would be 83%. I would take the other side of that bet in a heartbeat.

Also regardless of what happens today, they'll need a starter for Sunday in Tampa.

It's hard to complain about the pen being tired if you throw a bullpen game in the middle of long stretch without break.

I have no idea how the extra pitchers are doing, but Zeuch was good for 3 earn runs in 5 innings in his start against the Rays last September. I'd be very happy with something like that right now.

Those are the odds of being a .500 teams.

According to BR, the Yankees have a 99.7% chance of a making the playoffs. They just need to go 14-22.

BR gives the Jays a 54.3% playoffs chance with a 90% confidence but with the caveat that unscheduled make up games are not factored in.

Tampa 97.4%
Cleveland 99.2%
Twins 99.5%
A's 99.95% (They just need to go 13-21).
Astros 99.3%

BR gives only gives Texas  8.2% odds, Angels, 3.1%, Royals 13% and Orioles 34.7%.

I think the Jays will use Thornton for a few innings today and if he gets along all right then he would be the starter on Sunday.

It's possible, but I'd rather they rotate Zeuch, Murphy, Pannone maybe even Perez  or Diaz.

There are no expended roster this year and if they are in the hunt in September, they won't have many opportunities to look at any prospect.

"the probability that all 6 make it would be 83%. I would take the other side of that bet in a heartbeat."

I'll take you up on that, Mike. 4-1 odds, not quite 83% or even 5-1 odds if you want. Yeah, maybe something disastrous happens to one of those teams, but multiple teams would still have to pass them. ChiSox are the only other clubone can call "good". The Jays are the best of the not good and it took us 7 series (counting the Nats as 1) to win our first.

For future reference, mike - lightly coated, deep fried with ranch dip.

On the trade front, Bowden suggests a Brandon Marsh for Jordan Groshans trade at the Athletic. Marsh would give the Jays a near ready true centre fielder. MLB has them almost even on their 100, FG has Marsh almost 40 spots higher.

And a side note from FG's prospect lists. Both the Angels and Jays top prospect are sporting bright red down arrows.

Teams are really starting to empty out the top 100 list this past week. Bart, Mize, Pache, Rodgers, Sixto, Skubal, Ruiz.

Merryweather's first outing went about as well as can be expected. Lots of 98's. Threw all 4 pitches for strikes, though seemed a bit more control than command. Finished off with a good fielding play on Harper who bunted trying to beat the shift.
If he can stay healthy, might have another late inning guy.

I can't watch Jays games on TV anymore. Thank God for VPNs!

Now I can watch the game on MLB.TV and I'm no longer subjected to the virtual ads on the mound which are so annoying and distracting. That Bud Light ad made me snap and lose it. That was the last straw because Bud Light and Budweiser sucks.

I've also had it with their stupid 'Hey Sportsnet' and life coach promos. Who's the asshole that approves this crap? Sure, I blame the idiot that writes these spots but I blame the asshole who green-lighted this. Canada's most hated company strikes again!

Oh yes, the original reason for logging in is that the Vancouver Canadians will be looking for a new play-by-play man. Rob Fai is stepping down after 15 seasons behind the mic to pursue other opportunities, including his own late night radio show on TSN in Vancouver. With speculation that the C's will no longer be affiliated with Toronto (with San Francisco rumoured to be taking over), that is a double whammy for Blue Jays fans in Vancouver.

#2JB. Read Sportsnet comment sections. Very quickly realize the life coach ads target audience. Actually best not to read them, just take my word.

Lots of good stuff in game 1. Up to .500 for the 1st time since we were 3-3 back in July. Hope the Phillies pitcher is OK if it hit him where I thought it did.

Alford DFA.

Alford DFA. Not surprising even though not much OF depth. Alford has looked pretty terrible for three years. In a normal season, would be happy for him to be at AAA. Maybe some team takes him but beyond looking overmatched at the plate, he's not great defensively and is not a very good base stealer so value even at end of bench is pretty limited. A disappointing turn as in 2017, he looked like a can't miss prospect.

Guessing someone will take him and then try to sneak him through waivers later.

3 "flyball less than 75 mph EV" singles in the first 4 batters.  Thornton may wonder whether the IL comes with a bad luck charm that sticks on you for a while. 

Alford does not look like a MLB player, so I don't mind the DFA in isolation, but not a fan of the roster construction. Panik and Drury are both bad players, and McKinney does not provide any above average skill that could be useful in a 4th or 5th OF role. Alford could at least pinch run and serve as a defensive replacement. The team desperately needs to move on from Panik and Drury, and find backup infielders who can actually contribute in 2020. Now they also need a capable 4th and/or 5th OF. Fisher can solve one of those spots, but someone like Jonathan Davis is a much better option to replace Alford's spot than McKinney is.

Like Pompey, Alford status had dimmed considerably and being inherited from the previous regime and out of options didn't help.Best of luck.

You bring in good NRIs like AJ Cole and Panik. Then pickups like Font, Dolis either midseason or off season.

Trade impending FAs for prospects like Hatch and Waguespack. They compete in a throw it at the wall with Murphy, Zeuch, Diaz etc. Fisher, T Hernandez, McKinney, Wall do the same with Alford, Pompey, Palacios. All of them eventually make the rounds of many teams as AAA or ML try and fail. S Brito and J Bautista.

D Smith jr is doing well enough to always get an invite to a ML team as a bench player. He is/will become smart enough to not lose a game with blunders.

Read Sportsnet comment sections. Very quickly realize the life coach ads target audience. Actually best not to read them, just take my word.

This is sage advice.

A player and staff member of the New York Mets got COVID so their next two games are scrubbed.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29705536/positive-tests-mets-leads-postponements-vs-marlins-yankees

Frustrating as this team can be, you have to love their heart. They sure don’t quit.

Keep this up and Montoyo might win Manager of the Year. :)

At some point they'll have to admit they like hitting in Buffalo.

I guess I should give up on this team more often, or just learn to block out rays games. 5 wins in 4 days certainly came out of nowhere, especially tonight.

A reminder again about how you don't stop trying just because one team is up by a lot of runs. :)

2 of UO's favorites. Tellez and Jansen lead the Jays.

Joe Girardi made me think of this.
Only one current manager has managed a World Series winner and has a winning record so far this year.

There's a very reasonable chance that the 8 teams (including the Jays) that currently have playoff spots in the AL will be the teams that make the playoffs.

The hitting was good today.

If you look at players who have at least 500 PAs in 2019-20, Biggio probably has the best eye in the game.  He has swung at 15.6% of pitches outside the zone, with the next players at 19.3%, 19.5%, 19.9% and 20% (Bregman, Pham, Grossman and Trout, with Santana, Votto and Betts next).  He swings at a typical percentage of pitches in the zone (62%) and his overall swing and miss rate is not as good as the elite hitters, but well above average. 

Don't get any response to my post about winning managers, so here it is. Tito Francona (2007) is the only WS winning manager whose team is winning this year. There are only 3 other WS winners in the majors (Martinez, Girardi and Maddon).

All the rest since 2007 are retired (Bochy, Yost , LaRussa), canned for cheating (Hinch and Cora), or canned for being John Farrell (Farrell).

The Phillies have one of the worst pen in baseball.
Baltimore's pitching is poor overall.

I'm disappointed they didn't score more in some of those games.

They didn't use Alford much. I don't know if they really wanted to see McKinney or if they needed a spot on the 40 roster down the line. It seems Fisher will be given the 4th outfielder job and Davis is probably able to do what was asked of Alford.

Ultimately, when they started playing Biggio in the outfield to make room for Panik and Drury, there was no place left for Alford.

By Fangraphs, Jays have had the best bullpen in baseball. Amazing considering Giles' negative value in the short time he pitched.
Some is due to Atkins bullpen pickups and SP pickups allowing the Jays to convert starters. And pure luck in Romano being sent back to the Jays, adding FB velocity and now looking dominant.

Go rowdy go go go

I don't know about luck. Romano was a starter when picked in the rule 5 and he struggled in that role.
It's only when he/they decided to forget about the change up and move to short relief that he had success and that happened after he came back.

There has been a lot misses as well. Drury, McKinney to a degree, Paulino.
Grichuk looked bad for a while. Will Fisher turn into something?
Same on the draft side, Warmoth, Woodman (quickly recovered on him), Danner.
If they really knew about Biggio, they wouldn't have waited until the 5th round.

They could be competitive next year just by replacing Drury with someone who can hit, but free agents will only sign as back up if they can find nothing else. Grichuk, Henderson, Gurriel and Fisher is probably not the worst outfield, but they are tough to watch sometimes.

FG with Jays over 50% odds to make the playoffs. 5 other teams with at least 10% but all 5 under 15%.
Angels at 10.2% must be the biggest disappointment. Lost 7 of 8. Signed Rendon and hired Maddon. Rendon has been great, top 5 in MLB at 1.6 fWAR. Trout and Fletcher both 1 fWAR. (No Jay at 1 fWAR yet).

Eppler once again proving a couple of problems with the "stars and scrubs" philosophy. If you're paying a star, they have to produce like a star. We talked about Pujols contract, but Upton's may be worse. And yeah, you can upgrade on a couple of scrubs. But try fixing a team during the season that is over half replacement level or worse.

Wild guess - Eppler will not be the Angels GM this time next year.

I don't know what the Angels management it thinking, but you can't win games without pitching.
Pitching is very expensive and very risky on the free agency market.
They struck gold with Dylan Bundy who has 3 of the 8 wins.
Othani can't pitch. Teheran has not been good.
The bullpen has not been great which is a huge problem for them.
And they are actually lucky that the rest of the division has problem also.

Trout is great. Rendon has been excellent.
But you still need to fill all the other positions.
Just Upton has not been good.

For those that missed that, Curt Schilling is on the board of directors of "We Build the Wall" whose investigation for fraud has led to the arrest of Bannon.

Wags and Billy optioned. Is Fisher ready? Or as per Longley:
"Don't be surprised if Jonathan Davis is added. He's been impressing coaches in Rochester."

Baltimore just promoted one of their top prospects.
Ryan Mountcastle is a big right handed bat. He's played at 3rd like Vladdy but doesn't seem to have the range. Will probably fit in left field/first base/DH, but it looks like he can hit.

As for Alford, not enough time to pull an Oliver Drake, but he seems the type to get picked up for a short time, then DFA'd again by a team that wants him as minor league depth, but not on the 28 man.

It's going to be a mixed blessing if Davis comes up to replace his best friend and brother in law Alford.
Hopefully Alford finds a team willing to give him a chance.

Fisher has been gone for a while.
Normally, we'd know if he'd be rehabing somewhere.

I still think they need to make a move for a starter Sunday.
I don't see Thornton pitching on short rest after that.
Yamaguchi had a huge part in the rally win but threw 54 pitches and Wag would have been unable to pitch for a couple of days.

Justin Miller is still on the taxi squad.
I suppose they could use Alford's spot to add him.

Am I the only one waiting for a release of news headlined with James, Andrews, Nate and Pearson in the title? If the results aren't announced next day when a pitcher has an MRI then it usually means bad. Paxton and MRI same time and Yankees already disclosed it's a flexor strain.

Was wondering that myself. The jays were supposed to provide additional info yesterday, but haven't heard a thing.

Atkins said "We're not initially overly concerned."

There should be more info out at some point today.

Charlie says the Jays are still gathering information on Pearson. That does not sound good.

From MLBTR:
"Aug. 20: Pearson underwent an MRI, general manager Ross Atkins tells reporters (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). The team is “not initially overly concerned,” per Atkins. They’ll get official results and provide additional information later today."

I was referencing the last line. So should have had info yesterday. But I now read Ben N-S actual tweet and it only says the Jays " will have more info later today." Can be interpreted multiple ways.

Shoemaker vs Yarbrough  today. I think Shoemaker will be more patient this time.
Ryu vs TBA Saturday. Cash will try to surprise us.
TBA vs Jose Fleming. This time it's Montoyo with the surprise. Fleming is a lefty with a huge ground ball rate which sounds horrible, but the Jays have seem lots of those lately.
Roark vs TBA

Richards pitched Yesterday, so should be out of the picture.
Glassnow threw 88 pitches on Wednesday.
Snell threw 92 on Tuesday.

Normally, Fleming would fall into Chirino's turn on Saturday but has been announced for Sunday.
I doubt they send anyone on short rest.

 

The Yankees have Stanton, Judge, Torres, LeMahieu, Britton, Kahnle, Paxton and Higashioka on the IL.

The Yankees have Stanton, Judge, Torres, LeMahieu, Britton, Kahnle, Paxton and Higashioka on the IL.

Must be about time for them to go on a 12 game winning streak, then.

There are at least 2 major disappointments, as far as teams that thought they would contend: Philly and LAA. The Angels are probably too far out of it (8-18) to even think about it, but the Phillies are 9-12, maybe 1.5 games out of a playoff spot - 8th place seems to be at .500 right now in the NL, just like in the AL.

Obviously, this is one of those "quantity for quality" type trade proposals that's biased and rarely makes sense. OTOH, these are NOT our left-overs - these are some (not all) of our best arms, IMHO.

Romano, Kay/Thornton (or Roark/Anderson/etc), Bass/Giles, McGuire (or Janssen) for Realmuto + Quinn? They get GOOD bullpen arms and/or a decent starter + a replacement catcher. We get a big upgrade on catcher and a 4th outfielder? Realmuto isn't going to save their season by himself.
Let the ridiculing commence :-)

I'd like to give our young catching more time and I think the Phillies want to contend now and will keep Realmuto - I'd like to see what the Angels would want for Dylan Bundy and maybe Brandon Marsh.

Jays have the money to pursue Realmuto in a few months when he hits free agency.

Anyone want to take a stab at explaining how batting Jansen 3rd and Biggio 8th makes any sense?

Awesome throw by Gurriel to throw out Diaz.

Fangraphs has the Jay OF as the 4th best defensively in baseball.

Jansen's xwOBA is higher than Biggio's. He's been very unlucky. And then there's handedness. I still wouldn't do it, but I won't criticize the decision.

Buck is right - that outfield positioning made no sense whatsoever. Were they looking at the wrong scouting report?

Can't find this years spray chart, but the positioning actually looked correct for last year vs LHP's. He rarely pulled fly balls or line drives.

tied with Tampa in the 8th -- so this is a loss then.

Tampa games always seem so "Lucy with the football"

well, well, well.

The cardiac kids

That last 6 game streak we had (actually 7) was in 2016. The 7 game streak was preceded by that bizarre game when Trevor Bauer pitch 5 relief innings. We ran out of pitchers. Goins escaped the 18th inning, but Barney wasn't quite as lucky in the 19th.

And by the way, I'm really starting to like this team.

The win streak began immediately after I decided they were infuriating and unwatchable.

This team is a lot of fun - you get value for your entertainment dollar (or time given we can't pay for seats). The $200 I spent for a year of Sportsnet seems worth it between these crazy Jays and the Raptors doing so well. Sadly the Jets sucked in the play in games (losing their top 2 players to injuries didn't help). Ah well. Take what you can get.

Stats wise things are looking up - Bichette, Hernandez, Grichuk, Biggio all over 900 for OPS (plus Fisher and McKinney in under 20 total AB's between them). Tellez up to 790 now. Jansen, Espinal, Panik, Drury, and McGuire all using the wrong end of the bat still, although Jansen does have over a 300 OBP despite his 151 average.

3 guys under 1 for ERA (Merryweather, Romano, Cole), 5 more in the 2's (Hatch, Bass, Borucki, Kay, Anderson), 3 in the 3's (Dolis, Ryu, Waguespack). 20 pitchers used so far with 4 having the ugly 9+ ERA's (Font, Giles, Thornton, Gaviglio).

Playing with lots of bad luck for hitters. Guys below their wxOBA - 11 of the 12 who have 25 PA+ (only Biggio is outhitting his wxOBA by .021 which is the same amount Hernandez is below his). Worst luck is Drury (135 points below his bad 295 wxOBA), then Jansen (80 points down). Shaw is 60 down, Tellez 39. So both are hitting good but should do better going forward. Bo is actually 19 points below his wxOBA!

It was encouraging to see Vlad get the ball off the ground in last night's game. He had the line drive home run and mashed a couple more balls that the outfielders caught.

I fear that, short of a no-hitter, I'll never see a Jay's pitcher throw a complete game. Shoemaker was sailing along last night having thrown 74 pitches and retired 13 of the last 14 batters to face him, yet he still gets pulled after 5 innings. Monyoya used a lot of his bullets in the bullpen after that so I hope Ryu has a good game tonight.

Interesting till the end.

Borucki was known for fastball command and a really good change up.
He struggled with the offspeed, alternated between a curve, a slider and what he throws now looks like a big cutter. He might be throwing that too much. It's good to have an idea of where you want to attack a hitter, but you can't throw only  in a single quadrant. A good hitter will lay off the balls and eventually hit the strikes.

Romano has only 2 pitches but, like Giles, he has 2 grips on his slider.

Hatch's success seems to come from the hitters no being to figure out what the pitch is out of his hand. Doc was really good at that.

The Phillies are not trading Realmuto. The NL East is a bit of a mess. They just traded a PTBNL to Boston for Worman and Hembree. The Boston management is going full tank, except the players still want to hit and score runs.

PTBNL + Pivetta and Seabold.

Pivetta becomes Boston 3rd starter. He's from Victoria BC.
Seabold is a potential reliever with a good slider.

Travis Bergen was moved to the Taxi Squad.
He could be activated and take Alford's spot on the 40.

If Thornton starts on Sunday, the rest of the rotation would be able to stay on regular rest.
Which might be better, but they could need a lot of bullpen innings.

It was encouraging to see Vlad get the ball off the ground in last night's game. He had the line drive home run and mashed a couple more balls that the outfielders caught.

It wasn't just last night either. I think he's only hit one groundball in the last four games.

This is nice to see. I wanted to enjoy the learning curve of our young team.

2020 Week Five, Will Things Get Better?

Regardless of how the weekend goes, it seems the answer is an unequivocal 'yes.

but the positioning actually looked correct for last year vs LHP's.

That would explain it, I suppose. And they played him away and they pitched him away, like you're supposed to. But still... the guy on the mound - his best pitch is a changeup, and it's hard not to pull a changeup unless you miss it completely. And the guy didn't miss.

Well, I guess you can't ask the outfielders to scurry fifty feet every time you plan to throw something off-speed. The hitters would probably notice.

The Phils improved their pen. They said that they wanted to grab players before trading got busy nearing the deadline.

I cannot really think what the Jays realistically would try to go after. SPs Ryu, Shoemaker, Roark and Anderson are all doing V well or good enough. We cannot seem to come up with a 5th. Injuries to Thornton and Pearson.

The pen is doing V well. Yamaguchi has adjusted and is doing V well. Font has come around. Waguespack seems to be the last man in the pen and as such is going back and forth to the taxi squad.

As a whole the position players are doing well.

The outfield positioning for Martinez was actually probably right - on Fly Balls and line drives, he is a pretty extreme opposite field hitter in the vein of DJ LeMahieu.

You could argue the infield wasn't set up enough to pull (he's just as extreme a pull hitter on balls on the ground), though the real issue is just that he hit it through the infield (and outfield).

Could it be that there is a Vlad moon a rising? I think so and agree with what others have said.

As you might have noticed, Detroit beat Cleveland yesterday. The Tigers had lost 20 straight games to the Clevelanders. And on the team's Twitter feed:

No one, and we mean no one, beats the Detroit Tigers 21 times in a row.

Mike, you are a better person than I am. There is a difference between being upset with Vlad and fat-shaming overweight Nancy in accounting. Professional athletes should be expected to keep themselves in reasonably good shape, especially when the lack of conditioning directly impacts their performance.

And this wasn't the first time. He didn't adhere in the 2018-2019 offseason either.

IMO LAA will trade Brandon Marsh either at the deadline or in the off season. They will not try any type of rebuild while Trout is playing, I believe.

LAA and many teams are desperate for pitching. The Jays may have good slightly proven young pitchers. Salary and years of control should come into play. 2 of Romano, Borucki, Hatch and Kay should get it done. They are available immediately. If so are we paying too much or too little? Marsh has proven nothing yet. Great potential and will have to be added for rule 5 protection when the season is over.

Ryu is a proven #1. Pearson is the type of pitcher (potential) you don't trade.

Everyone else was depth. Some veteran SPs (#3,4.5) The kids are unproven with the potential to be good or at least useful. Zeuch, SRF and others are close to ready but unproven and not given a chance yet due to numbers I imagine.

They are 13-11 and 7 or 8 of the losses are late blown saves or tied games that went the other way.
They seem to be in every game.
They will soon be done with the pesky Rays.

At some point, Bichette should be back, which will be a great upgrade.

How to improve? With Alford gone, they have room for one player.
They could upgrade on Panik as they seem married to Drury, however, they will have to carry Fisher.
I still think they can set up a taxi squad shuttle and rotate 3 guys through 1 spot.
That would be Waguespack, Gaviglio and somebody.
I'd try Justin Miller to see if he can do anything than DFA him for whatever they can get.
Travis Bergen is already on the Taxi Squad and Giles should return at some point.
So, in fact, they might be able to keep going through 6 pitchers a day.
It seems like Montoyo really wanted the win yesterday and bringing Borucki early led to using 2 more pitchers.

I don't really know how the Taxi Squad works.

Years ago they would bring up David Purcey to start and send him back down after the game. In those days he would have to stay down for 10 days unless an injury happened.

For the current rules/usage of the Taxi Squad (TS), if Wags is on the TS and Kay or Hatch are used for 2.2 innings can they be sent down for 1 or 2 days ( they won't pitch anyway). Wags in brought back and sent back after the 2 day rest for Hatch/Kay.

Romano has been a revelation this season.

Here are some of the comments after the Jays left him unprotected in the 2018 Rule 5 draft and he was selected by the White Sox (he was immediately traded to Texas). As usual, the main takeaway is that we’re all fallible, but sometimes quite prescient, when it comes to assessing these kinds of moves.

***

“Neither Romano or Bergen have great stuff although it's easier to see Bergen being successful as a reliever.” (Oops.)

From the same poster: “ Meh. You're getting way too worried about losing potential middle relievers. Romano looks like a long-man to me if he's even a major leaguer . . . these (Romano and Bergen) are fungible prospects.”

“Ultimately it came down to not believing those two were worth 40 man spots at this time. Maybe they will be proven wrong, but . . . it's really not a big deal given their profiles.”

“Too bad about Bergen and Romano.“

“The only reason I can see for losing Bergen and Romano is that relievers are a dime a dozen these days and are somewhat easily replaceable. . . . I should caveat that comment to say mid inning relievers are a dime a dozen. If you think someone is closer material then my comment does not apply.”

“Romano is somebody who I think will stick with the CWS as his FB/Slider combo is tough on righties and he is a guy who I think can stick in the bullpen for a year. You will lose guys like Romano if the Jays don't push more guys onto the 25 man roster.”

“I am disappointed that the club lost Bergen and Romano (for now). There were players protected over them who still mystify me.”

“Lost: Jordan Romano (a Canadian) - a 10th round pick who missed his age 22 season. Entering his age 26 season with last year his first above A+ ball. 3.3 BB/9 vs 8.1 K/9 is nice and mostly done as a starter (66 starts vs 16 relief appearances). An interesting kid who might stick as the White Sox should suck in 2019 (100 losses last year) so keeping him would make sense.“

Fangraphs has Jays bullpen as the best in MLB thus far. Pretty amazing with no Giles, who by the way is looking less and less an extension candidate.

FG and 538 have our playoff odds at 60% and 64% respectively. May be a bit too high, but the 3 teams closest to the Jays are the O's, Royals and Tigers. Not exactly fear-inducing.

Funny, greenfrog, I was looking at our archives as well a few days ago. Last October's Jays Report Card . This was his:

F Jordan Romano
"Obviously, there was nothing to like in his performance, but who really knows what to make of such a small sample. I sure don't. If you like, you can be encouraged by the 21 Ks in just 15.1 IP, and be appalled by the 4 HR and 9 BB."

A few of us argued with Magpie on Thornton's grade and a few others, but I can't recall anyone even mentioning Romano. But I may well be wrong.

At the time (2018) I was more disappointed to lose Bergen, so what do I know.

You have to be careful in assessing pitching prospects, as they sometimes develop on the late side. It’s not unusual for a pitcher to come into his own in his age-27 season (although he was decent in AAA last year as well).

Well this is way more fun.

One hot streak in a 60gm season is all you need to make the playoffs.

Keep it going boys.

And go rowdy go go go.

FG 2020 Batting Leaderboard:

#15 Cavan Biggio 1.1 WAR
#23 Mike Trout 1.0 WAR

Facts.

“And go rowdy go go go”

Rowdy has posted 0.1 WAR so far this year. He had a much hotter streak during his cup of coffee in 2018 (0.5 WAR in 73 PA), before posting 0.1 WAR in a full season last year.

I’m just not seeing him as an especially valuable major-leaguer. Maybe he’ll be able to provide passable value as an average or below-average 1B/DH or bench bat in his prime-age (low-cost) years.

I can't recall anyone even mentioning Romano. But I may well be wrong.

You're not wrong!

Obviously the sample, bad as it was, was too small for anyone to take seriously. Not even me. (In related news, it turns out that Shun Yamaguchi just might be a major league pitcher.)

I grudgingly bowed to the consensus on Thornton, who I had pegged as a solid below average starter. As it turned out, his very strong September lifted him into the ranks of just about average. (It would be C- if I did a do-over.) I still have the same concern about him, which is that I don't know what he specifically needs to do, what particular weakness he needs to address. I think he needs to get just a little bit better at everything, which somehow seems more difficult to me.

Dwight Smith jr DFA by the O's.

Romano had quite a decent 2019 season in AAA. In 37.2 innings, he posted a 12.66:3.35 K:BB ratio with an xFIP of 3.79.

His K rate was comparable in his brief stint in the majors in 2019, but his walk rate and HR rate spiked.

To his credit, in 2020 he seems to have gotten back on the learning curve he was on for much of the 2019 season. His performance so far this year merits an A.

"Rowdy has posted 0.1 WAR so far this year. He had a much hotter streak during his cup of coffee in 2018 (0.5 WAR in 73 PA), before posting 0.1 WAR in a full season last year."

Rowdy has his milb splits back - 7.5bb%/13.4k%, .246iso

Only thing holding him back now is his .224babip.

On the other hand, that hot 0.5war first stint was all about his .391babip, with awful underlying numbers 2.7bb%/28.8k%

And last year too, he had his k% up over 28.

If the cut down in K% is for real (and remember, he was actually good in this department most of his milb career), then watch out.

I always thought Romano was a prime candidate to ditch the change up and pitch in a big league bullpen, but I didn’t think he was going to be this dominant.

I'm guessing Magpie would know the answer to this, but I certainly didn't until I spotted it a BBRef.

The Jays have never had a player produce 100 WAR for their franchise. No shock. Dave Steib at 56.8 is the leader. But even the O's, playing their 120th season, don't have a 100 WAR guy - Ripken finished with 95.9. A-Rod had over 100, but not for any one team.

However one franchise has 4 players who have produced 100 WAR for them. Which one?

Those are positive trends in this year’s small sample, UO. Given his other limitations, Rowdy will have to really hit to be a valuable ML player. Btw BRef has him at negative WAR (-0.1) in 2020, his age-25 season.

I'm guessing Magpie would know the answer to this

I didn't know, and my first guess would have been wrong.

My first guess to it was the Giants because of Bonds and Mays.

I'm guessing if anyone is guessing they'd be wrong.

Well if you just eliminate nearly all the post 1960s teams it takes a bit out of the list. TBH I have a hard time remembering which teams old players like Hornsby, Wagner, Collins, etc are on despite reading Posnanski's top 100 this last year. But Bonds and Mays I know played basically most of their career with one team. I just had no idea if there were 2 other Giants from older days that met the criteria.

The giants had Ott and Mathewson too...seems like it's them.

Bonds and Mays and Ott and Mathewson. (My first guess was Yankees, but after Babe, Lou and the Mick - you get Joe D, Yogi and the Captain. They weren't even close.)

But I think the Braves come should make it too, though. They've got Henry Aaron and Kid Nichols, obviously. Eddie Mathews (as a Brave) has 94.1 on offense and 6.4 on defense. And (again as a Brave) Warren Spahn has 92.5 as a pitcher and 7.5 as a hitter. Right on the nose!

Of course, Kid Nichols thought he was playing for the Boston Beaneaters.

Yup which is what I got too. Thankfully I had a bit of a mental list going of 100+ WAR players because of Posnanski's top 100 this past year. And the thing is I know the modern players a lot more than the oldtimers. But modern FA like the original post takes out most of the recent generation of players. But Bonds I know had a series of huge years in SF at the end of his career and was there for a long time and has so much WAR that even with those Pitt years he would beat 100 easily. And Mays is not a super oldtimer and he played basically his entire career with the Giants. So that was 2.

I tried to think of other recent players who got 100 with one team but I was drawing blanks. Schmidt with Philly was the most recent I could think of and that was my second guess but I had no idea which old players were on that team.

Yeah, that's the 4 Giants. Surprised the Yankees only had the most obvious 3.

This was fun and interesting. It's not just the Orioles of the old-time teams that don't have a 100 WAR guy. Neither do the Indians, White Sox, and A's. Nor the Reds, Cubs, and Dodgers. The A's and Dodgers are the ones that surprise me, but the A's have always gotten rid of their greatest players (from Foxx and Grove to Rickey) and the Dodgers best players all seemed to have short careers.

Regardless I don't think the guessing is really that difficult in this sense. Not for knowing who the 4 players are but just knowing/guessing who the team is. For most fans they're going to know the players still alive more than the ones from 100 years ago. And Bonds is still very much in the public light and Mays is the greatest living player. Mathewson I should have remembered but I would not have remembered Ott. Yankees of course are a guess as well because of Babe and Lou but they're just not as recent in memory as Bonds and Mays.

OK, I was looking at the wrong column. Eddie Mathews falls just short.

There are 32 players listed with 100 career WAR, and by my count 16 of them had 100+ with a single team, and the other half spread their greatness around.

Mathewson I should have remembered

Aw, cut yourself some slack. The man's been dead for 95 years.

I was thinking St. Louis might be a viable sleeper team. They've had some great players. But on checking, only Musial and Hornsby and Pujols have amassed 100+ WAR (and some of Hornsby's and Pujols's WAR were accumulated with other teams). Ozzie Smith, Lou Brock, Yadier Molina...all sub-100 WAR players.

Also, Bob Gibson...career Cardinal but sub-100 WAR (82.3).

The Red Sox managed to get rid of Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, and Roger Clemens before they made it 100. Well done. I don't think getting the last few years of Cy Young and Lefty Grove makes up for it.

Cards were a thought as well. Mainly because my original thought was Pujols got 100 in St Louis. And I knew Musial had it. But I had no idea on any other players. Yankees should have been more in my thought but for some reason I only thought of Babe and Mantle and not Gehrig.

I was also surprised Cobb and Williams were the only Tigers/Red Sox and Kershaw is Dodgers all-time leader.

So I was thinking - how many 100 WAR players could a person have seen? So I made a little Data Table - it's just the 100 WAR guys and the year they played their last game.

1906 - Nichols
1911 - Young
1916 - Lajoie, Mathewson
1917 - Wagner
1927 - W.Johnson
1928 - Cobb, Speaker
1930 - Alexander, Collins
1935 - Ruth
1937 - Hornsby
1939 - Gehrig
1941 - Grove
1947 - Ott
1960 - Williams
1963 - Musial
1965 - Spahn
1968 - Mantle
1973 - Mays
1976 - Aaron, Robinson
1984 - Morgan
1986 - Seaver
1989 - Schmidt
2003 - Henderson
2007 - Bonds, Clemens
2008 - Maddux
2009 - R.Johnson
2016 - Rodriguez
Active - Pujols

Pujols had better be careful. At the rate he's going, he could actually fall off the list.

Roger Angell, who will be 100 this September and whose memory is still functioning even if much of the rest of him is breaking down, remembers seeing Babe Ruth play. I have to think the players who retired before then are pretty much lost to living memory.

So what trades make sense this year to push the Jays over the top? You cannot block prospects unless getting a star which is unlikely to happen. Few teams are sellers which makes it tougher. One possibility is Alex Cobb from Baltimore - they are likely to suck worse and worse as the year goes, he is owed $15 mil next year plus whatever this year so not a killer deal by any stretch. 122 ERA+ in his 5 starts so far (26 1/3 IP - over 5 innings a start would be nice). Pearson is likely in the pen when he comes back, Thornton looked terrible in his first start back and in 2 starts has just 4 2/3 IP. I doubt any tears would be shed if he was put in the pen. He could be traded for Cobb and I'd be good with it. 2020 and 2021 look to be solid shots at the playoffs and Cobb would be better than Thornton for that imo. Roark is signed for 2021 ($12 mil), Anderson has a team option ($9.5 mil), Ryu is signed long term, and Shoemaker is a free agent. So Shoemakers slot is open for Pearson regardless in 2021 (assuming he signs elsewhere), while Roark and Anderson and Cobb would all be here just for 2021. Kay is looking ready to step in and who knows how the top prospects in the minors are doing at perpetual camp.

Other trades would only be for backups to replace Drury, Panik, Espinal - none of which would make a massive difference imo. Gurriel looks to be picking up the pace a bit at last, Jansen has hit better than the surface stats show (very good xwOBA), Vlad should hit eventually. Fisher shouldn't be terrible when back and give some OF depth at last, Bichette will be a big plus when he returns. The pen has been amazing and has tons of depth with Giles eventually returning. Even Yamaguchi is starting to look good after his last few appearances (after his terrible first 2 games he has 7 2/3 IP 1 R, 3 BB 10 SO which is very nice for your mop up man). Gaviglio is probably going to find himself in Rochester soon if the rest keep doing what they have been doing.

So I see backup hitters and maybe a starting pitcher as all the Jays will go for.

What is cool is you can find video of Ty Cobb hitting, running the bases, even at what I'm assuming is a training camp (big open field no stands) on YouTube. Same with Walter Johnson, among others. This has many deadball players on video. Thanks to people with early cameras taking video. In 100 years if someone wants they'll be able to watch anyone from the 50's on in video (for example, Ted Williams last home run is on video, as is a home run he hit in an All-Star game).

Yeah, I've gone trawling through YouTube looking for old video too. Before about 1950, there's mostly random newsreel footage. All I've ever seen of Christy Mathewson is him playing catch on the sidelines. (And a lot of the old footage looks weird because the camera speed doesn't match somehow - it looks speeded up.) The occasional gem surfaces from time to time. A couple of years back, a few innings from the 1924 World Series appeared. Walter Johnson pitching! Sure he was old, but how often do you get to see a guy who won 400 games?

The oldest complete game I've seen is the seventh game of the 1952 World Series. There seems to be just scattered World Series games available for the 1950s and 1960s. But I've still been able to watch the Mazeroski HR game from 1960 (a wild, wild one), Koufax shutting out the Twins on two days rest in 1965, and Gibson's 17 Ks in 1968. Hours of fun!

tied in the 8th in Tampa -- so this is a loss then?

Merryweather enters game; forecast improves.

Thanks for sharing this, John. I was halted at the clip of Chief Bender pitching (1:34). It appears that there's no mound. Does anyone know if this is the way it used to be? And if so when did they add the mound and does this have anything to do with the disappearance of .400 seasons?

Good question Super Bluto - so I checked. The mound for years was set as a maximum of 15" above the baseline but no minimum beyond 0". So some teams had a 0" high mound at times. Source: https://bosoxinjection.com/2013/12/13/pitching-mound-history/

Well, late August and the Jays are 1 game up on the Orioles for the last playoff spot. 3 up on KC, Detroit, and Texas. and 5 1/2 up on Boston, LAA, and Seattle. Seattle is playing Texas right now and pounding them 10-1 in the 9th.

I like those odds for the Jays. If they can just win at least 1 of the 2 games left vs Tampa the odds will jump higher, win both and we have a 'woohoo' moment as the Jays right now are 3 1/2 behind the Rays for 1st in the AL East after the loss today.

The Rays are built on platoon hitting. The Jays have more regulars. They have Fisher who hasn't played much and Panik who  hasn't done much.

If one of the prospects eventually grabs 3rd base, it should get interesting.

It would great if anyone except the Jays trade for Cobb. Baltimore could potentially collapse with the pen not being able to get enough rest.

The Jays apparently are built on having Travis Shaw bat 3rd in the line up. That will never bode well for our chances late in a game.

So far I like what I see from Charlie Montoyo regarding management of pitching. Unfortunately, it appears that with hitters he is of the old guard where you have to earn your way down or off the line up, (see Shaw, Travis) or alternatively you have to bide your time and earn your way up the line up as Charlie did with Oscar Hernandez.

Whether it's due to out of trend baseball management or forced upon him from management, it's unfortunate that our manager can't seem to manage his best game at the given point in the season whereas someone like Cash is always managing for the game at hand and maybe the proceeding one or two days. I don't think he would keep playing guys to "give them a chance to get their feet under them."

I enjoyed reading the comments about Romano.

Romano and Bergen were projected as relievers. P Murphy and a couple of others were projected as SPs and were therefore added to the 40 man roster. Makes sense to me.

Romano has shown great success so far but his ML career to date is 30 games and 28 IP. This can be considered a SSS.

With such a short season pitchers like Pearson, Hatch and Kay among others probably don't pass the 50 IP mark and so would still be considered prospects.

I enjoy making my own prospect list. Small projects like this make my retirement more enjoyable. I am going to break the rules and not really include the above players as prospects. I would prefer to do it as Pearson 1A, then Groshan 1B. This would clear out some room on the top 25.

The Cubs and LAD are in great shape to make the playoffs. Currently only Pittsburgh looks out of it.

12 teams will look to trade in the NL. SD is probably desperate because they have been floundering for a long time.

Kudos to Atkins & Shapiro for the great bullpen and the many glorious years of control thereof.
Giles and Bass will be free agents this offseason, but the rest will be here for at least 3 years or until effectiveness doth depart:

5 years: Romano, Hatch, Kay, Merryweather, (Yamaguchi)
4 years: Borucki, Dolis, (Waguespack)
3 years: Cole, Font, (Gaviglio)

Only 2 more games vs Tampa left on the schedule. Gonna suck if we have to face them in the playoffs. :0

Damn those are 2 good bullpens. That was a low percentage decision by Biggio to come home. But would staying at 3rd with 2 outs have increased the odds much?

I wonder if the deadline will show which owners really don't want to lose money. A bunch of teams don't own their broadcast rights. Might there be some straight money saving deals where a player is traded for little return? Or will there be enough buyers with money to drive the price up?

I think service time is pro-rated this year, and that will affect prospect designation.

At any rate, McGuire is no longer a prospect.
MLB has Riley Adams, Sem Robberse and Nick Frasso as our 28th, 29th and 30th prospects.

Because the performance of bullpen arms varied so much from year to year, often the best way to take advantage of a strong-performing reliever is to trade him (examples: last year’s trade of Phelps for Hatch, and the 2017 Liriano-for-Teoscar (and Aoki) trade).

The challenge is to decide which arms to keep and which ones to trade (and when to trade them).

* varies (not varied)

Merryweather looked very good last night. At least the Jays didn't just get some magic beans in return for Donaldson.

Good to see. Although Fangraphs just rated Jack Flaherty (the player that was reportedly offered to the Jays for JD) #19 on its Trade Value chart. Fangraphs says: “If you are looking for ace-level production over the next three seasons at a reasonable salary, Flaherty is bettered in value by only one pitcher (Bieber), and even then, ZiPS favors Flaherty.“

The Jays biggest mistake was drawing over 3 million fans in 2016. If only half as many showed up, no way Rogers wouldn't have approved a rebuild and we'd have Flaherty now.

And Tampa just put their best late inning reliever on the IL.

Charlie say that club still waiting on second opinion on Pearson's elbow. That does not sound good.

Hypobole, do you have any evidence to support that claim? I know Shapiro hinted that he may have been somewhat constrained in implementing a proper rebuild, but I’ve never heard anything to the effect that “we refused the Flaherty offer because Rogers told us we couldn’t accept it.”

In any event, a good GM and president should be able to persuade ownership of the merits of making an intelligent move, instead of assuming the role of passive agent who must follow every whim or notion expressed by ownership.

James Paxton on the amount of pitcher injuries this year:

"I think it's pretty simple," Paxton said. "We didn't get enough time going at a lower speed to kind of build up."

Major League Baseball shut down spring training in mid-March because of the virus outbreak and teams held a three-week camp in July before the pandemic-delayed season began.

"The tiredness is building up," Paxton said. "We don't have that base we normally have."

J Paxton could be right.

Shoemaker has been placed on the IL with shoulder inflammation.

greenfrog my only evidence is common sense. Teams don't go into rebuild after drawing 3 million fans. Flaherty was a good prospect at the time, but none of BA, MLB or BP had him as Top 100. In fact MLB had him #80 prior to the 2016 season, but dropped him off. He was not ready to contribute.

JD was coming off another 7+ WAR season. Trading him for a non-top 100 kid who would contribute nothing in 2017 would cost the team wins and create huge negative optics among the ticket-purchasing fanbase.

And no GM/Pres would ever blame the owner if they wanted to continue working in the industry. Or any industry. Owners want to make money. Convince the owner of wherever you work to make a lot less money. Good luck with that.

I have moved on from the Donaldson situation. He was a great acquisition by AA. We got 3 V good years. It is very hard to get 4 good years in a row I think.

The Marlins are 1 game above .500 and don't belong there.
Eventually, the regulars will return and the other NL East teams will make adjustments.
The Cards are in second place, with just .500 but will have to play a lot of doubleheaders.

When asked about the trade deadline, Atkins said SP depth. He also said subtraction to make 2020,2021 and 2022 more competitive.

I like that he does not say much.

The rebuild started after the 2018 trade deadline. Our successes are:

1) Many young players have graduated to the Majors and are doing quite well.

2) Our finances are very clean. Only bad contract is Tulo.

3) Deep and talented farm.

Profitability with the help of winning is probably the goal. Ownership want big profits if possible.

I got my years mixed up. The Jays did draw over 3 million both 16 and 17 , but it was after 17 the deal was discussed and Flaherty had moved up to the Top 100, #38, #53, #67 in the publications. And Josh was down to 5 WAR due to injury time missed.

But the general point still stands.

Coll stat from Shulman - Teoscar and Carlos Delgado are the only Jays to hit 10 HR's in the team's first 26 games.

And Thornton is out of the game after 1 IP.

The comparison has been made between Teoscar's career arc and Jose Bautista's. Jose is the better defensive outfielder between the two of them, but the Jays front office must be pleased they stuck with Hernandez through all the struggles at the plate.

I think Jose hit 11 home runs in September 2009, and carried that into a 5-6 year reign as arguably the best hitter in baseball. He could actually pinpoint the at bat where it all clicked for him (against Minnesota in August 2009, after a tip from Vernon Wells). Hopefully there are similar stories about Teoscar's road to Damascus moment.

Gotta get rid of the fielding gaffes, though.

Hopefully that is how this plays out. As I wrote on 30 April 2018: "I would just like to note the possibility that the Liriano-Hernandez trade (facilitated by the earlier Hutchison-Liriano/McGuire/Ramirez trade with the Pirates) may go down in history as one of the best trades ever made by the Jays."

The comparison has been made between Teoscar's career arc and Jose Bautista's.

That might be a little premature. They're both comparatively low-average hitters who hit lots of home runs. But one of them always had much better strike zone judgement, even when he was a struggling Pirate. The game more or less revolves around control of the strike zone.

Greenfrog, you have made enough claims that have turned out poorly to balance out your prophecy of Teoscar being part of a great trade for this regime. Dwight Smith Jr was designated this weekend, by the way. Weren't you championing for him over Oscar? I honestly don't remember if it was that or just opining for DSJ to get some regular playing time over another OF on the Jays.

I'd rather have Rye over Flaherty anyway. Something about the AL East which spits out RHP from the NL Central.

Ryu* trying to navigate autocorrect on my new phone is like navigating through this Dodgers line up. Not easy.

Weren't you championing for [Smith Jr.] over Oscar?

I think that was me, actually.

Like every one of us, I've made some predictions that have turned out well and some that haven't (and of course, Teoscar may still turn out to be a mediocre player who doesn't leave much of a mark).

At the moment I'm happy about the prediction though. With his HR (10) and three walks today, Teoscar is hitting .296/.340/.653 on the season.

Have a nice day, dalimon5!

Yup, it was me in the 2018 Report Card, when I wrote the following about Smith:

Smith is one of those guys who gets no respect, and consequently gets no opportunities. It's not going to make any difference, but he might be a better baseball player - in every facet of the game - than Teoscar Hernandez. Teoscar is exactly 11 days older than Smith, and has certainly received an opportunity. But I promise you we're not going to find out. I don't expect Smith's situation to change. I don't expect to see him get any kind of a shot. It probably doesn't matter.

Teoscar made me look it up. This wasn't the first time he's had 3 walks in a game. He did it once - on Aug 20, 2016.

Borucki had been so good, but that's 2 clunkers in a row in Tampa.

Yes Mr. Magpie, but wouldn't you say that Teoscar seems to be figuring it out at around the same age as Jose, and with similar amount of at bats in the big leagues? That was my only point.

With his HR (10) and three walks today, Teoscar is hitting .296/.340/.653 on the season.

And in the process, he almost matched his total walks from the first 25 games. He's still got some work to do. What he has managed to do is get his K rate down to 30% of his plate appearances. Which is a lot, but it's still a pretty significant improvement. But he has to hit, and he has to hit a lot. He doesn't help the team anywhere else: not in the field Lord knows, and he doesn't even help much on the base paths, despite being the fastest guy on the team.

As for Smith, a desperate organization actually did give him a shot and he did nothing with it. And now we know!

DSJ was worth a shot for Baltimore for what they gave up for him (a bit of international pool money). Sometimes guys like that (age 25, pedigree, some track record of performance including in the high minors and majors) kick their game up a notch and are valuable, at least for a while. Unfortunately it didn't work out for him. At least he got to play a couple of seasons in the majors, which is more than most can say.

I think it's just a little too soon to say Hernandez has figured it out - it's been an impressive half season and change. But certainly it's not unprecedented. Bautista was an extremely unusual case but this type of development is probably always unusual. Each instance likely has something unique about it. It took quite a long time for... oh, Nelson Cruz to establish himself as a major league hitter, to name the first guy that comes to my mind. There are definitely others.

Hernandez was also one of the best hitters in baseball the final 2 months of last season. It is beginning to look very much that his offense is for real.

A week ago, we had 6 starters. We now have 3 with Thornton's inevitable IL trip.

Zeuch? SRF? Or someone else?

Never forget, I'm an old person. In other words, I remember Josh Phelps.

Maybe we'll know by who joins the Taxi Squad.

I think Kay slides into Thornton's spot and Travis Bergen replaces him in the pen.

I don't think SRF is a starter anymore.
Borucki has turned into a left handed version of SRF.
He needs to find his fastball command and lay off the slider against the right handed bats.

They still have lots of options. It sucks when the Rays call up a depth starter from the minors and get a quality start.

The Jays are starting to miss Bichette.

Growing pains. It will take years for some of those guys to mature, but this is still pretty good baseball.

So far, Hernandez’s 100 ABs in 2020 looks almost identical to the 100 ABs he had in 2017. In part, this is what he has done in the majors - he goes nuclear for a stretch then ..... I think a larger body of evidence is required. Any improvement in his strike zone control has to stick for him to survive.

Patrick Murphy is another possibility.

But definitely not Edwin Jackson.

Since his demotion in AAA Teoscar has put up a wRC+ of 130 in 450 PA, and statistically he has been fine defensively in the corners the last two years. I wavered on Teoscar for sure, but he seems to be have a place on this team now.

The current regime have gambled on power hitters figuring it out later in their careers and Grichuk and Hernandez are showing well on that right now. Smoak was another success story a few years back. The way Grichuk and Hernandez are playing might keep Auston Martin in the infield.

As for the next man up in the rotation, I sure hope we see Thomas Hatch get some extended run.

One huge difference between his 2017 and now is his exit velocity. 2017 it was a league average-ish 87.2. This year it's 94.8. That's one of the few best in baseball.

It would be awesome if one year a team took a chance on Edwin Jackson and somehow everything went right -- ERA around 2.00, 3:1 K:BB ratio, postseason MVP, etc. -- and then he reverted to journeyman Jackson the next year.

Not quite sure why, but Vogelbach for cash.

It would be awesome if one year a team took a chance on Edwin Jackson and somehow everything went right

That happened! For Oakland in 2018! The one and only time he's pitched effectively as a starter since 2011.

But surely, surely the clock has struck midnight on him now.

Vogelbach has 11bbs to 13ks. Not bad for a guy hitting .094

2 reasons - 1) cost only cash 2) could there be a trade happening in the next few days which takes Tellez away with others to get a starting pitcher?

As much as I love to cheer on Tellez and fear losing him will be Cecil Fielder again (left in '88, came back to majors in '90 and hit 50 HR) I can see value if we get a starting pitcher back who is under control for 2021 as well as 2020.

I guess they see him as a Smoak type who didn't get a fair share in Seattle.

He's a very patient hitter. Maybe a pinch hit option?

I think the Jays will be sending Tellez to the alternate site.

It's true that Tellez has an option left.

At his best, Vogelbach was hitting .208 with an OBP of .341 and got 30HR and 17doubles in 558 PAs.
Rowdy has basically the same numbers as last year. OPS+ of 96, hitting .227 with an OBP of .288.

Rowdy's total for 3 years is 29 HR in 555 PAs.

Maybe Vogelbach has more immediate upside, but he's also got more immediate downside hitting just .094.

The interesting part is that Vogelbach is an absolute platoon bat. He can't hit lefties at all.
He would be interesting if we had real options besides Drury and Espinal on the bench.

TB is doing really well. They have won 6 of 7 vs NYY so far.

They opened a window of contending in 2018. How are they winning?

Great pitching from Snell, Morton and 1-3 others. Also a good pen. So a few V good SPs and relievers. But they have a lot of journeymen in their pitching. Cash uses his pitching well. If a journeyman is doing the job, he stays. If not someone else gets a chance.

The hitting is similar. Many journeymen. They traded for A Meadows who was a high draft pick. B Lowe was not as high, 3rd round. Kiermaier was an incredible find as an everyday elite defender.

All these "not that great pieces" have been producing pretty good offense and quite good defense to provide success. As Montoyo has said they know how to play the game. Our young guys are learning that.

I don't know the rules for the roster. The taxi squad in particular. But TB I think are using the taxi squad a lot. 1 example (cherry picking) T Richards sent down on Aug 4 and recalled on Aug 6. He needed to get some work in he pitched Aug 1 and next Aug 9.

Montoyo may be doing similar up and down transactions. I have not checked yet.

Perhaps an outside shot that Tell stays, Vogelbach stays and Glad is sent down to accumulate less service time and become a better player.

Unless there is a plan to trade for starting pitching, this wouldn't be the worse plan. Vlad right now looks like a real lost opportunity. He's good as is but can be great with the bat if developed better.

Hitters cannot improve at the alternate site since they're not even playing real games.
At least pitchers can throw simulated games and try to execute their pitches and follow a schedule.
Worked OK for Merryweather.

It looks like  Giles is going to rehab with the Jays.
We'll see what they'll do with Bichette.

Still no second opinion on Pearson?

Roark has large splits and will be facing 6 or 7 lefties.

We should be finding out about Alford soon.

The new guy being a LH bat isn't the best. Assuming Fisher returns you'd like to mix him into the lineup using the DH/LF/RF stuff thus you want a RH bat to mix him with. McKinney also is a LH bat. So 3 LH bats for DH/backups. You aren't platooning Hernandez, Grichuk or Gurriel. I'm going on the assumption this trade means Tellez is on the trade block. 3 guys limited to 1B/DH isn't a good thing and you won't see Vlad platooned either.

We're not good, but we're on the cusp of good.

Of course hitters can improve without playing real games.

My internet money now is on Alford making it through waivers. But Vogelbach didn't so what do I really know.

Hernandez's 2020 looks closer to a breakout than it does anything he did previously. His exit velocity, hard hit %, barrel %, etc, are all elite in 2020 (as is xBA, xSLG, xwOBA). The swing and miss is still in his game, and he needs to get his walk rate back to what he was in 2019, but there's no way to fluke how hard he's hitting the ball right now.

We need a full season of PA's to see if he can maintain this, which unfortunately we won't have this season, but he's been on a tear offensively since about June/July of last year. His BA is likely to drop but the power is definitely real, and if the walk rate normalizes to what he was showing last season (and in the minors), then you have a very good offensive player there.

T Hernandez was very upset with himself the other day. Vlad was upset about his AB against D Castillo. It was a cheap out. Hernandez has been working on his D for a long time. The Jays gave him time. Vlad is still making youthful mistakes. I expect the Jays to give him time.

ESPN's Jeff Passan has 2 trades he would make before the deadline. One is Kyle Seager to Atlanta. Here is the other:

2. Andrelton Simmons to Toronto: The market for a player like Simmons, an all-time great defender at shortstop, is every bit as slim, though that won't keep the Angels from trying to find him a landing spot. Most playoff contenders have shortstops, and Simmons' bat doesn't play at DH. But with star shortstop Bo Bichette out for an undetermined amount of time with a knee injury, renting Simmons -- even if the Blue Jays' staff generates ground balls only 40% of the time -- would be a mighty upgrade over the out-of-position Joe Panik or Santiago Espinal.

And from Eric Longenhagen's Prospect Roundup at FG:

Two Blue Jays relievers have moved up. Julian Merryweather, 29, looks healthy and is throwing even harder than he did last fall, when he sat 95-97. He’s now sitting 96-99 and has a four pitch mix. 27-year-old Jordan Romano is throwing two ticks harder than he did last year and his slider has climbed a remarkable 5 mph. Both velocity bumps have coincided with a release point change; he goes from off the Toronto list entirely to firmly in the 40 FV tier.

Feels like the Wednesday start could be a natural opportunity to see what Yamaguchi can do once stretched out. It seems like he's adjusting to the ball, looking quite strong in his recent outings. And he'd be an intriguing guy to bring in ahead of a power arm like Merryweather in a tandem arrangement.

i don't really understand the use of calling 29 and 27yr old relievers "prospects", tbh.

either they are mlb pitchers right now or they aren't.

I guess they are prospects until they lose their rookie status.

Tom Henke.

I think the jury is still  out.
If they don't need to play real games, they  are spending a lot of money for nothing.
And many players can't make the transition form AA to AAA to MLB.
How much harder is the transition from practices to MLB?

Mountcastle has looked great with Baltimore so far. OPS 1.056 after 3 games but that was Boston pitching and he had 127 games in AAA last year. 
They Play 3 in Tampa before heading to Buffalo.

Tellez has an option left and probably little trade value.

If Fisher returns, Biggio gets out of the outfield and it's probably Panik who is on the block.
I don't think you ever want Fisher at DH and like Tellez he actually hits lefties better, so a terrible platoon option.

Thornton to the IL
Bergen up
Pannone DFA'd

Hopefully, that is in time for the game.

As much as I love to cheer on Tellez and fear losing him will be Cecil Fielder again

A comparison that had never, never occurred to me. So I thought I'd look at their numbers.

Tellez' age as we speak is roughly 25 years and a half, the same as Fielder when he began his year in Japan. And here's what they'd done in the big leagues, which did get my attention. I'd let you guess which is which:

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	
154	555	506	68	121	31	0	29	81	1	2	37	148	.239	.297	.472	.770	103	239	9	7	0	5	4		
220	558	506	67	123	19	2	31	84	0	2	46	144	.243	.308	.472	.781	108	239	17	3	0	3	2

Obviously, the number of at bats is One of Those Things. And I'll admit it's nothing like what I expected.

i don't really understand the use of calling 29 and 27yr old relievers "prospects", tbh.

Probably because there's such a long history of pitchers figuring it out and making themselves useful at that age. (It was once one of the game's hoary old cliches that LHP never find themselves until they're at least 26 years old.) Still, from Dazzy Vance (first MLB win at age 31) to Jamie Moyer (34 wins before age 30, 235 wins after) there's a history, and it's almost certainly more common among pitchers than position players.

"Prospects" is probably the wrong word, though - they're really "Guys I Wouldn't Want to Give Up On Just Yet." Randy Johnson was one of those guys.

OK, Rowdy, once you get to Narita International Airport ....

"Probably because there's such a long history of pitchers figuring it out and making themselves useful at that age."

Very big difference with hitters and pitchers here. There is more to figure out as a pitcher so growth is a lot less linear. Kluber, Scherzer, etc...didn't really figure things out until they were in their late 20's. Morton became a good pitcher in his mid-30s. Lynn looks like he found a new level in his early 30's, etc...It's not uncommon at all.

I know what you're thinking. Cecil Fielder hit two triples?

If they bring in pitching help, I hope it’s a reliever. The last thing we need is another SP retread; we’ve seen how they work out.

With Yamaguchi, Borucki, Merryweather and Kay all deep in SP experience, certainly at least one of them is worth a long look.

Yamaguchi, Borucki, Merryweather and Kay all deep in SP experience

I have to believe that the organization is looking at the lengthy injury histories of Borucki and Merryweather and thinking relief pitching may be the ticket for those two.

Wow, new thread is required and I am On The Case. As soon as this game ends....

Aren't there about 10-15 other teams also looking for relief help?

And we may soon be thinking that relief is the best option for Pearson and Thornton as well. Pearson has thrown so few innings that any serious injury now basically makes him a non contributor for 2 years as I think he still needs AAA experience..

Thanks for checking Magpie. It more hit me as a comparison due to both coming up and being shifted down the 1B ladder by a hotter prospect (McGriff and Vlad respectively). I'm kind of amazed how close Tellez and Fielder are there. Identical TB, AB's, only 1 or 2 different in R, HR, H. Weird. Obviously Tellez hits left while Fielder hits right. Both are large and not the fittest specimens. Both showed tons of power but just can't seem to get the steady playing time needed to get to where they can be here.

If the Jays do trade Tellez I suspect we'll be looking back and going 'dang it' like we do with Fielder but if the Jays go out and get another star kid from the draft to take over 1B (ala Olerud who was drafted the year after Fielder left) then I won't complain too much :)