"McGuire was charged with “exposure of sexual organs” it seems the illicit action occurred inside a vehicle parked in a retail parking lot."

Where is Annie Savoy when you need her?

Pardhino's surgery, Mcguire's arrest, Vladdy's weight - what a start to spring training! if this portends the coming season, we may wish that winter last forever.

Where is Annie Savoy when you need her? Maybe Reese was dreaming of her when he let his Nuke Laloosh

When I first heard it on the radio, they said McGuire was arrested for exposing himself in a shopping mall, and I thought, oh man, he's done, but this is a whole different situation, as Mike Green said on the other thread. Inside an SUV? Was he fooling around with a willing companion or something like that? Hopefully it was something relatively minor of that nature.

Sounds like a relatively trivial incident that should be diverted out of the criminal justice system.

I've read some more about the crime in question and a conviction generally requires proof of lewd intent... in other words, a purposeful act with an intended victim. It's a misdemeanor and usually, that means some sort of plea or dismissal deal will be discussed. If a victim is a minor, then it's much more serious (e.g. felony, offender registry, etc). His court date is March 16 and we may not hear much more until then.

In addition to the legal question, there is also the Blue Jays' reaction to consider. Osuna wasn't convicted of a crime, but the Jays obviously discovered that he had done something bad and wanted no part of him. A lot depends on what facts the Blue Jays find and what their view is of the incident.

One the surface - just based on what I've heard so far which isn't much - this *SEEMS* closer to the Auston Matthews incident than that Osuna incident.

What's up with Jr's weight?

Clearly the Jays' new sign calling system needs a rethink.

McGuire keeps surprising.

The Austin Matthews incident involved will to offend and inebriation.
Not enough information to go on here.
Hopefully this just leads to a bad nickname and terrible taunting.

The Dunedin renovations aren't quite completed, but the results sounds very good.

The Austin Matthews incident involved will to offend and inebriation.

I didn't mean it's 100% the same. What I meant was that, after some lawyer involvement, and a settlement, it's been like 99.5% percent forgotten. Certainly, I don't see anyone consistently calling for him to get a lifetime suspension from the NHL anytime his name is mentioned, unlike Osuna.

At first glance, McGuire's eventual outcome seems like it'll be along those same lines (as for Matthews), not like Osuna.

The police report is out. It seems like McGuire was spending some quality time with himself and a NSFW video on his phone in a fairly busy strip mall parking lot.

FWIW, he was extremely apologetic when arrested (good Canadian?).

If McGuire's offense is just being offensive in semi-private but not really then I suspect he'll get a 'boys will be boys' punishment - hours of community service, a donation to some charity, and some really NSFW nicknames.  Hopefully that is the case, although it doesn't take much imagination to see ways this could be a lot worse than we know at this point.

Basically if the content he was engaging with was typical, this will blow by quickly. If it's illegal content then this will be the end of his career.

Managers will now have up to 20 seconds to challenge a play instead of 30.

They should have capped how long it takes to render judgment instead.
Usually, when it takes too long it's usually wrong.

This is the reason each team has a video room.

In my humble opinion, they should try to make things more predictable so managers don't challenge for nothing.
The video review umps are way too random.

Masturbating while watching porn in an SUV in a mall parking lot does not seem like "boys will be boys" to me and he will lkely never live it down.

Who amongst us....

Back to less personal issues, Breyvic Valera has been claimed by the Padres.

The 60 IL is now open and the Padres had a spot.

Still a long shot for him to make the team, I think. 

A lot of resentment towards the Astros.

I guess McGuire's pumped for the season.

So there were multiple complaint to the league before Fiers went public and the league did nothing.
That's a big stain on Manfred.

I read "This is the reason each team has a video room." in context with the Reese discussion and...

J Smoltz had a lot of interesting things to say about the 3 batter rule.

The Pirates have signed Jarrod Dyson on a 1 year $2 million contract.  I wish that the Blue Jays had signed him at that price, or at $3 million, or at $4 million. 

The Blue Jays ZiPS projections are out.  They are not friendly to the Blue Jay position players (save for Travis Shaw), but are friendly to the pitchers.  If the Blue Jays get  only 12 WAR from VGJ, Bichette,Biggio, Gurriel Jr., Jansen and McGuire, it will be a long season.  I think the figures are low, but not unreasonable.  They have VGJ at -5 on defence, and he could easily be a lot worse than that. 

Blue Jay pitcher looking in at Reese McGuire from the mound during spring training game:

" Hmmm, does he want a curveball or is he just playing with himself?"

Hahaha ISLAND BOY.

FWIW, McGuire's reaction to the situation was perfectly reasonable.  It would be nice if fans would give him a break.  This isn't a domestic violence/steroid/sign-stealing scandal.

Ahmen! What McGuire did was embarrassing but harmless - I absolutely hope fans give him a break - can't believe I've read comments elsewhere of fans wanting the jays to get rid of him - I guess still a puritanical society.

Seeing the pictures of Vlad at spring training is very disappointing, while he has lost a few pounds he's nowhere near the physique I was hoping and I'm expecting his defence to remain abysmal and for Vlad to run out of gas again in the later months - it's too bad about Groshans injuries, else he may have been able to start 2020 in AA and one could dream about him taking over 3B early in 2021 - I do hope if he preforms well and is healthy this year that the Jays are aggressive in promoting Groshans - the sooner Vlad vacates 3B the better.

Unless McGuire is found guilty of wrongdoing (I'm not familiar with the laws there), then he's more likely to be perpetually ridiculed by fans/teammates than he is disciplined by the team or MLB. Still a stupid thing to do regardless.

Does anyone remember Dave Stewart getting busted with a prostitute who turned out to be a transvestite? No one cared, although it definitely helps when you then start winning 20 games every season.

"Does anyone remember Dave Stewart getting busted with a prostitute who turned out to be a transvestite? No one cared, although it definitely helps when you then start winning 20 games every season."

David Cone's bullpen antics didn't seem to hold him back either.

I was fine with the Astros punishment originally, but it's pretty clear that more needs to be done. Their lack of contrition across the board and the seeming cover-up of the extent of it by baseball mean that more needs to be done. Were buzzers used? Multiple people have not denied it. Why were no players suspended in a player-driven scheme? Because Manfred didn't want to have to fight the union on it? Players are mad as well they should be.

Very happy with the Jays system. Pardinho with TJ is not good but this will always happen with pitchers which is why you need them in bulk. Fangraphs has Jays with 4 top-90 prospects which is amazing a year after graduating Vlad, Bo, and Biggio. I fully expect to see a few new players in the top-100 next year as well (Guys like Kirk, Moreno, #1 pick this year, Manoah, etc...)

The two somewhat similar were Paul Reubens AKA Pee Wee Herman and Eddie Griffen.
Reubens was in an adult movie theatre, not quite as out in the open as McGuire. His show was supposedly ending anyway, but the planned syndication was cancelled by the network.
Griffin was also intoxicated (he had severe substance abuse problems) and driving when he hit a car. His NBA career ended that offseason and a few months later, again highly intoxicated, the car he was driving slammed into the side of a moving train and Griffin died.

J Dyson brings speed (30 SB) and defense but no power. I don't know how/if the SB, running game wins in today's power game. Ricky Henderson was a distraction to the pitcher & catcher. That could hurt more with the 3 batter limit.

unbelievable the Astros would stage this kind of press availability seemingly designed to make everything worse.

what a disaster.

I guess the Jays should take a page from the 90's Cowboys and get a house across the street from the Dunedin facility so that these young men can stay well-oiled.

"unbelievable the Astros would stage this kind of press availability seemingly designed to make everything worse.
what a disaster."


It was shocking. The worst line was "“Our opinion is this didn’t impact the game"...so then why did you cheat??? Although maybe this was worse...

"Our players should not be punished. … These are a great group of guys who did not receive proper guidance from their leaders.”

The Reese McGuire incident would, and should, be assessed quite differently if there is evidence that he was seeking to expose himself to others or was otherwise engaged in this behaviour with the specific intent of being seen by others.

Based on what has come to light so far, it seems as if he was doing it in private, but in a vehicle that was in a public areas where he was nevertheless observed by a stranger, and then he was genuinely remorseful upon arrest.

To me, it seems appropriate to be dealt with through a fine and otherwise diverted out of the criminal justice system. As Mike Green and others have noted, this is worlds apart from anything Osuna did.

From a results perspective, the Reese Incident should be treated differently, as a victimless crime.

But it shows an incredible lack of judgement and self-control. I also wonder what an expert in sex-crimes would say about this type of behavior.

"It was shocking."

Not to me. People like Crane who engage in unethical behaviour are only "remorseful" between the time they get caught and the time they are punished, in the hopes of mitigating the punishment. Crane already received his punishment, so to him, what advantage is there in acting remorseful?

The ZiPS projections for the pitchers look significantly better than what Steamer had been projecting:

Steamer/ZiPS
Ryu: 4.28/3.77
Roark: 5.16/4.43
Shoemaker: 5.04/4.46
Anderson: 5.48/4.73
Borucki: 5.05/5.23
Thornton: 4.64/5.05
Kay: 5.42/5.27
Pearson: 4.99/4.07

That's more than a .5 run difference for our top 5 starters. I'm not sure if some of that is attributable to ZiPS assuming a lower run environment than Steamer, but even if that's a part of it, the rotation looks a lot better in ZiPS.

Yamaguchi doesn't have a Steamer projection, but has a respectable ZiPS projected ERA of 4.69

Rafael Dolis is projected to be our second-best reliever by a fair margin (3.81 ERA).

In ex Jay news - Red Sox Agree To Sign Kevin Pillar - 1 year 4 million.

Totally OK with seeing Pillar in the RC.
He's probably just platooning against lefties unless they trade Bradley.
With Betts, they never really used a 4th outfielder much.

Projection numbers for young pitchers are always iffy.

Not sure about projections based on Japanese data.

Dolis still throws hard and seems to have figured out how to throw strikes.
From what I heard the Japanese balls are a bit harder and a bit smaller.
The parks are also on the small side.
Both pitchers throw splitters and the grip on the bigger ball might cause some issues.
I'm still quite hopeful.

Not a lot of love for Bass who has done quite well the last  2 years, juiced ball and all.

No love at all for Gurriel. It's probably due to the lack of walks.
ZIPS think Fisher is twice as good.

There's one reader comment on the Blue Jays ZIPS thread that made me laugh.

The ZIPS ranking of Gurriel is totally absurd. They have the following players each producing more WAR than Gurriel this year - Fisher, Tellez, Valera, Panik, Kivlehan, Kirk, and Burns, with McKinney equal, and Adams and Davis just 0.1 behind him. Gurriel might produce more WAR than all of those players combined.

Unfortunately for McGuire, this incident might be what he is remembered for the rest of his career. Pretty embarrassing, but I don't think it will affect his status with the team.

Nobody will care as long as maintains his prowess with the bat.

Ryan Borucki is shut down with elbow tightness.

You always anticipate a few set-backs in spring, but when they happen it always hurts a little. I think the chances are Borucki getting past his injury troubles are not great.

Borucki's elbow MR scan was apparently innocuous. 

Apparently, Atkins has said the current plan is for Grichuk to start the season as the CF. He is clearly the best CF option on the roster so that would make a lot of sense. If the Jays plan to carry both Fisher and Alford on the 26 man roster, then starting Tellez in AAA, splitting OF/DH between Gurriel/Grichuk/Fisher/Hernandez, and having Alford as the 4th OF would make the most sense based on the current roster construction. That would put a lot of pressure on Fisher's bat, but the FO seems to be really high on him, so he will be getting a real chance regardless.

Tough luck for Borucki.

John Lott over at the Athletic has an interesting story on Eric Pardinho. Pardinho did have elbow issues in early 2019 but returned to pitching in Lansing in the second half of last season. He was shut down early, not with elbow soreness, but with back and oblique soreness. The medical staff believed the back and oblique issues were because Pardinho was throwing differently, probably to save his elbow.

After an off-season where he worked on his core and trunk, his elbow hurt in January when he began to get ready for the season and that lead to the TJ surgery.

It's too bad that Fischer has reverse splits for his career. I know, SSS - 300 PA vs. RHP, 100 PA vs. LHP.. But, still, it would appear that the anti-LOOGY rule isn't going to help him.. In fact, it REDUCES his utility - he doesn't really work well as a pinch-hitter against a RHP - lifetime OPS ~600, vs 775 vs. LHP.

With the new anti-LOOGY rule(s), I would imagine old-fashioned platooning would actually be a bit more attractive again.. Fischer just isn't the player for it - unless you use him AGAINST LHP and get another lefty bat who is killer against RHP.

We will have to see how Borucki progresses.I read earlier that he was going to ask Ryu about how to throw/grip a pitch he wants to develop.I think a cutter.

" The phone line for Edwin Jackson is no longer in service."

I was going to be glib and say nobody was calling him but apparently Arizona, for some reason, invited him to spring training.

Dang, was hoping Jackson would end up with a team he hasn't already played for - he is up to 14 teams but he did spend 1 partial year in Arizona already (21 starts, 82 ERA+ in 2010, a decade ago).  Traded to the White Sox mid-season for David Holmberg and Daniel Hudson (yes, the one who played in Toronto last year, Holmberg has been retired since 2018).  The Jays got him in 2011 for Jason Frasor (retired since the end of 2015) and Zach Stewart (last in majors in 2012, was in the Jays minors in 2018).   The Jays in 2011 traded him away with others for Trever Miller, Colby Rasmus, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters all retired now.  He didn't play here in 2011 as the trades were both on the same day (thus really a 3 team trade).  Those 2011 trades were the last time he was traded for something other than cash.  Amazing how he can keep getting released (4 times now) and someone picks him up.  8 times 'granted free agency' and each time someone signed him to give him another shot (independent of the releases).  So 12 times he has been available to all teams and 12 times someone thought 'yeah, we can make this work'.  All this for a guy with 6 seasons where his ERA+ was 100 or better out of 17 seasons in the majors and last threw 100 innings in 2014 despite 4 times getting 10+ starts in a season since then.  Despite a 6.9 K/9 rate and a 3.6 BB/9 rate.  One has to think he has pictures of GM's doing stuff they really shouldn't or something at this point.

They have Guerrero Jr. out in RF shagging fly balls today.  He was an outfielder before he was signed.

Over the offseason I've heard Atkins muse about biggio in CF, Hernandez at 2B etc. and moving struggling 3B to RF is not unheard of - maybe the Jays are taking this positional flexibility to the extreme - trying to imitate the Dodgers.

A step forward on minor league wages.  It's a start.

Mike, it will be a start in 2021 when it takes effect.

A move to the outfield would significantly decrease Vlady's defensive involvement. Last season across MLB, third basemen had 2.7 defensive chances per game; while RF had 2.0 and LF had 1.8. Obviously, these numbers don't tell the entire story, but I think you could count on 100+ less defensive plays over the season if Vlady was in LF/RF instead of at 3B.

Do you think he is mobile enough to handle the outfield, at least better than Adam Lind?

That said, it is more likely to try to add to the positional flexibility for the team, just in case they need him to play there in a pinch.

All our outfielders have speed so they should use that to back up their partners in the outfield. So when an easy to catch ball is hit to T Hernandez or Fisher then the guy next to him should run over and be prepared to pick up the ball and throw it back in if it is not caught.

They will need to know how many outs have been made in the inning. If the hitter expects it to be caught and is just jogging towards 1st so that he does not look bad then he should hopefully not get to 2nd base. So slackers will be on 1st and non slackers probably on 2nd. 0, 1 or 2 outs will also play a part in the scoring.

Hernandez's bat has to make up for all the easy catches that he does not make. It won't matter if the man on by error does not score. A strong/deep pitching staff can handle the extra outs they will have to make. If Fisher cannot hit or catch the ball we can DFA him and hope he stays with us. Then he can learn hitting and catching in the minors.

Atkins revealed that Grichuk will be the primary CF at the start of the the season. He was always the most obvious candidate as much as I imagined other options.

A step forward on minor league wages. It's a start.

" Major League Baseball is raising the minimum salary for minor league players in 2021 ...between 38% and 72%"

The Jays raised their minor league salaries ~ 50% in March 2019. They got a good jump on the competition. Has this improved the Jays system?

Nice to see what it takes to get on the front page of the Toronto Tabloid.  I have a few nice editions from the 80's and 90's - when the Jays clinched the east in 85, 89, and won it all in 92/93 and the Carter/Alomar for Fernandez/McGriff trade.

I wonder if the proposed raise in minor league salaries coincides with the planned reduction of minor league teams. This would help MLB teams keep their large profits while slightly raising the meager salaries of their lowest ranked minions that still have a place to play.

The difference doesn't even adds up to a million here.

Yamaguchi wants to start and his springs performance could make it happen.

If Borucki has to got to the 60IL, that allows them to promote one of the guys on minor league contract without losing anyone else. That's the silver lining.

Guerrero to right field might be one way to put more offense in NL parks.

R McGuire's situation:

As society changes the law may not keep up. Definitely peoples perceptions vary.

McGuire's action was poor judgement regarding public location. Some people consider breast feeding in public offensive. Maybe peeing discretely in the woods or on the highway is also offensive.

So everyone probably has their own opinion about the above actions. McGuire's action seems to be illegal even if he was trying to be private rather than seeking an audience. I don't know the details.

However I have a negative opinion of anyone that filmed any of the above actions. Is that filming a crime? Everyone has a cell phone. Is that accepted courtroom evidence?

Alex Vertugo has a stress fracture in his lower back, so Pillar is probably a Red Sox regular in April.

Honest question, as I’ve been sick as a dog for a week: is Vlad still out of shape?

Tony Fernandez has passed away at age 57. I'm feeling awful - he was one of my all time favourites.

Re Verdugo. I wonder what happens with that trade now?

Apparently nothing,  Sox were aware of the issue?

There are some photos from spring training on the net so you can judge for yourself - Vlad has lost a few pounds but I wouldn't say he's in shape - still looks overweight and that DH might be his best position.

Too late for a Pache trade? Atlanta needs a 3B, No?

Geez. Vlad looks to be in worse shape now than he did in November last year for that workout video extravaganza.

I was looking at the list of unsigned free agents. Among those looking for work are Clay Buccholz, Clayton Richard, and Aaron Sanchez. A grim reminder of the unpleasantness in last year’s rotation.

A name that jumped off the page as a potential contributor was Collin McHugh. If he could be convinced (with lots of money) to accept a bullpen role he could provide a major upgrade in what looks to me to be a group that is alarmingly thin on talent and experience. Tony Cingrani was another player who could possibly Help. I’d also be interested to see if Andrew Cashner could follow an Ian Kennedy trajectory if moved to the pen.

I felt a pang seeing old friends Marco Estrada and Devon Travis on that list. Two quality contributors and individuals.

I think McHugh would be a really good addition. If he insists on a starting role, you could even put Yamaguchi and Thornton in the bullpen until somebody gets hurt, and strengthen the pen that way, but then you're getting to the point where there is no room for the development of the young guys for the rotation. McHugh may be interested in a one year deal as a starter to re-establish himself in that role after mainly pitching in relief the last 2 seasons. Of course, he'll be 33 in June, and may not have many effective years left. He's in a bit of a tough position due to the relief role for 2 years and his age.

4 Jays in ZIPS top-100

22 Pearson
26 SWR
47 Groshans
91 Orelvis

Same 4 Jays on the ZIPS top 100 as on the FG top 100. Biggest difference in the rankings SWR 50 spots higher by ZIPS.

yup, that's how good SWR's numbers are, even accounting for not reaching AA yet.

Geez. Vlad looks to be in worse shape now than he did in November last year for that workout video extravaganza.

Ok, it's not just me. The before-and-after comparisons look the same and I was wondering what I was missing, as the article headlines weren't matching the pics and vids.

I have to assume all of the work he put in improved his conditioning, cardio and strength. Guess we'll find out over the course of the season.

Question for you all.
When the astros come to town, what would be the perfect idea to boo them?

Idea 1:
Wear Black Sox.

Idea 2:
Everyone cheers Meat! And wear t-shirts that has Kevin Costner on the front "You don't respect yourself, that is your problem. You don't respect the game, that is my problem"

Without Giles, the pen would have looked weak.
With him, it should be fine.
Bass has loads of experience.
Dolis could be really good.
Font was amazing on 2 days rest.
Pannone held his own out of the pen.
Gaviglio has been decent for a few innings at a time.

A. J. Cole is probably a lock to compete for setup man.
And then there's a long list of guys who need to get a shot.
There's a lot of struggling AAA starters who can throw hard, nasty stuff.

Wear a Bolsinger jersey and bring a lawyer.

As a side note, Bolsinger had solid numbers in his 2 years in Japan.

I will switch back to this thread regarding the WS championship teams.

Fantastic core of position players and pitching. Many veteran FAs signed for a shot at a WS. That ring is special. Winfield, Molitor, Morris, Stewart. Tony and Alfredo came back too.

Some players were never going to be "great". Sprague, Gruber and Borders were good.

Guys that were almost done: Stieb and G Bell. I think both were there in 1992.

New good additions of Guzman, Hentgen and Timlin.

The pen was great Henke, Ward, Wells, Eichorn, Acker and Timlin.

The formula of great old FAs and some youth arriving worked well. Most old players played well enough to not be "disrespected" by lessened playing time.

Our current 2019 and 2020 team has nothing really. The youth have not proved themselves because of SSS. So only Ryu and Giles. 4 years and 1 year. They cannot carry the team.

We do have a potential WAMCO lineup. The catching should match Borders defensively I hope.

I actually kind of hope Sam Gaviglio gets cut, he is pretty much replacement level. I think with Wilmer Font or Pannone can share the long man, lefty/opener role and I would rather see the team take a chance on one of the younger 40 man options or AJ Cole.

John Lott has a thorough review of the Dave Hudgens dilemma over at the Athletic. He comes to the same conclusion I think I do.

Hudgens is 63 and was brought over to contrast the old ways of doing things with the new ways of doing things and the 35 year old hitting coach.

He wasn't mentioned in the investigation. I can't imagine why the players would have spared any previous coaches.

Honestly, it seems it all went over his head.
Which doesn't mean he's not a good bench coach.

Jack Leiter (son of Al and nephew of Mark) made his debut for Vanderbilt today. His pitching line:

5.0 0 0 0 1 12

He could be a high draft pick in a few years.

I wonder if the opener strategy will be used this year. This year's Jays staff will be mostly veterans if everything works out and probably wouldn't take kindly to sitting until the second or third inning.

The battle line for the 5th starter job seems clearly drawn with Thornton, Kay and Yamaguchi starting the first 3 games.

Merryweather had a side session throwing 95-97mph with ease.
He should end up in the pen, given his lack of innings, but nothing is clear at this point.

The general expectation is that Alford won't make it.
I wish they'd just drop Drury for a right handed bat who can could platoon at first.

Tony Wolfe at Fangraphs does some big-time squinting and concludes the Jays might possibly be the positive surprise team this season.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-might-be-underestimating-the-blue-jays/

He wasn't mentioned in the investigation.

I'm not sure what that means. He clearly knew it was happening and he didn't do anything. Honestly, it seems it all went over his head.I don't think there can be any serious argument that, while he wasn't the instigator or ring-leader, he was fully aware of what was happening. You can debate about what consequences he should suffer, if any, for that.

Orioles have designated Richard Urena. I doubt the Jays will bring him back.

I truly don't understand carrying Alford all winter if there's no expectation of carrying him as the 5th outfielder. Breyvic Valera would have been a more flexible infield option than Panik, offer potential upside in years of control, and is likely to outhit him (and Drury).

If Alford is just around to try and surprise, the team should have given him as much opportunity to play in September as possible and probably should have sent him to the AFL.

I don't believe Alford is that unlikely to make the team - he makes perfect sense as a pinch-runner & defensive replacement and 5th outfielder. He still has the tools, and with good health and opportunity, I wouldn't be surprised if he shows the potential he still has.

I think Panik has much more upside than Alford OR Valera.

However, he also might be done like dinner.

Montoyo said today that he does not plan on using an opener this season (per Keegan Matheson), but wouldn't rule it out if depth becomes an issue.

I think the only way that Alford makes the team (barring injuries) is if he hits consistently throughout spring training. I don't see a spot on this roster for a pinch-runner and I don't think Alford is good enough defensively to warrant being a regular defensive replacement. He's out of options, so if he hits in spring, he stays. Otherwise, you hope he clears waivers on cutdown day and then he can be outrighted of the 40-man roster to Buffalo (he cannot refuse the assignment).

Alford is probably the fastest guy on the roster. His arm is decent.
If he gets enough reps, he should be alright defensively.

You keep depth pieces around until you have to cut them.
If there are no spring injury he could be in trouble.
Now, if they send Tellez down, I'd rather have Alford than a 3rd bench infielder.

Montoyo can't use an opener with a veteran rotation.
That's a good thing.

They league has investigated the cheating.
There's no need for the Blue Jays, the fans or the media to do it again.

Now, the problem with the league investigation is that they gave the players immunity in exchange for cooperation and then found that the cheating was player driven. The players incriminated Cora--who was bench coach but was now with Boston and Beltran who is an ex player. They did not incriminate the hitting coach. I'm sure the league looked into that. He's an obvious suspect.

I'm not sure what to say to the view that Panik has more upside than Alford. Alford remains a toolbox whose swing-and-miss is a little overstated. Maybe he never puts it together, but the upside there is pretty substantial

But in terms of Valera, Panik and Valera have very similar profiles - limited power, very strong contact skills, probably not viable backup SS; they have similar offensive projections. The major difference is that while Panik is a free agent after this season, Valera is controllable for years. Maybe similar upside as players; but Valera has more upside as a potential medium-term piece for the Jays.

Panik was drafted as a shortstop and played there before he moved to second.
Drury was initially a third baseman. They started him in the outfield in majors.

The Jays probably view Espinal as the controllable backup infielder they want to hold on to.
Warmoth and Smith are also in the mix to figure things out.
Valera is 28.

Alford's role would, of course, be a mixture of things, not just a defensive replacement or pinch-runner. He might not add much value defensively as opposed to Grichuk in centre (although I wouldn't make be too sure that Grichuk is equal to Alford in CF), but he should be noticeably better than Gurriel, Hernandez and Fisher in the corners. He's not Billy Hamilton, but he was the fastest guy on the team bar Socrates Brito last year, and would be pretty clearly the best pinch-running option on the roster.

Add in the value in trying to unlock his pretty substantial potential, and I think it's pretty clear that he ought to have a spot.

Yes, I can see the argument for Espinal - more defensive value and versatility, but I think he's only a backup. Valera is a late-bloomer, but might hit enough to be a 2nd-division regular.

Warmoth is a non-prospect at this point, I think. No plus skill, and was overmatched in AA.

Smith has a lot of work to do to figure out how to make enough contact to be successful in AA, much less contribute at the MLB level. Maybe he figures something out, but I don't think he's in the picture in 2020. Otto Lopez is more likely to be able to step up and help in the middle infield this year than Smith or Warmoth, even if you think Smith remains the better prospect.

We are trying to figure out who will be the backup and bench players. These are players that will get only a little playing time. In many cases it would be veterans instead of kids doing the backup. You want the kids to play everyday. So they stay in the minors.

So Arencibia catching backed up by Thole. SS is J Reyes with Kawasaki as IF backup. Lawrie is a lock for 3B. The the OF with All Star C Rasmus as CF, Bautista in RF and savy veterans Melky Cabrera and Rajai Davis as veteran regulars. In case of injuries hot prospects like A Gose and M Sierra should fill in nicely and K Pillar would be the last resort.

I am excited!!

GabrielSyme, you're talking like Valera is still with the Jays. Do you know he was claimed on waivers by the Padres a week ago ?

Yeah, just pointing out why the DFAed him.

It's not quite that simple.
If a guy's future is to be a bench player, you don't have to keep him in the minors until he's out of options.

It's not just about filling the bench. Part of the depth charts are guys in AAA. Sometimes upon injury a bench player will become the regular and sometimes a AAA player will fill the void.

Can a guy like Panik bounce back without regular ABs?
Espinal needs more time a SS, but the bat could be ready.
Does the defense at SS matter if Bichette starts 170 games?
Also, there's a lot pressure on the 40 roster.
The Jays could easily trade a couple of pitchers for younger prospects.

I count 15 guys who are legit AAA starters.
And that still leaves guys like Castillo, Murray, Johnston, Logue, Allgeyer, Spraker and Larkins for AA.

Romano is a shuttle candidate.
Not sure if he starts with the team, but he should be up at some point.
A couple of AAA/AA starters should qualify as well.
Probably Merryweather. Maybe Perez and Murphy.

The reason I think Panik has more upside than Alford is that I see Alford as a failed prospect. He has had multiple chances without ever showing that he is a plus major league player. His upside is as a back-up, as far as I am concerned. His default is a career minor leaguer.

Panik, on the other hand, has proven that he can be a valuable contributor to a major league roster. Since he is a couple of years removed from that so it may not come back, but the possibility is there.

I always like ex Jays prospects. Angel Perdomo is on the Brewers 40 man roster. Will be 26 years old soon, has not burned any options. Nobody knows if/when he will put it together but he has a strong arm. Lefty.

We have P Aumont in that situation.

"Tony Wolfe at Fangraphs does some big-time squinting and concludes the Jays might possibly be the positive surprise team this season."

there's some potential there, but it looks like a tightrope to me.

1. I like the hitting depth IN THE STARTING LINEUP. If healthy, this lineup should run a good 9 deep with guys that can realistically be average hitters at least.

2. I don't like the bench depth too much. If the team runs into position player injuries, I don't think they have many bench options that can realistically jump in as more than replacement players.

3. To become a contender-quality offense, you're gonna need 3-4 of the bats to be legit impact quality this year, and in this lineup that seems to only realistically be an option from the kids. Nothing proven to rely on as above average bats whatsoever.

So offensively, I think there's a lot of gamble both at the top of the lineup and on the bench.

4. Pitching wise I think the depth is good. Both in vets and in kids there's both solid depth in the pitching staff and plenty of plausible strong injury fill in candidates too.

5. I also think there's realistic impact performance from 2 guys who have been dependably impact performers recently - Ryu and Giles. At the same time, Ryu's injuries/health and Giles' relievernish put plenty of risk into that projection, too.

6. Unfortunately, i don't see any realistic impact performer candidates beyond those two. Sure we can hope that a shoemaker stays healthy and performing, or that Pearson makes a quick transition, but those seem like pretty extreme longshots to me.


So overall I see probably 3 big question marks that need to turn out positively for us to be a surprise team this year:

1. a good 3-4 of the top young position players need to be legit above average to impact players this year. it's possible, but a tall order.

2. the starting position players need to stay relatively healthy this year, as there's not much in the way of injury fill ins.

3. Ryu has to be a healthy impact performer, and either the rest of the pitching staff has to end up either having rock solid depth with no longterm glaring holes in it, or 1 or 2 guys need to be pleasant surprises and become legit above average to impact performers as well.

A total of 59 PAs spread over three years is, I suppose on a technical level, "multiple chances"; but practically it's a pretty useless basis on which to evaluate Alford.

He's been mediocre in AAA but not so terrible as to think he's a failed prospect (95 wRC+ last year). But he was much better when he returned from injury in July, with a 137 wRC+ to finish his season in Buffalo in his final month or so.

As for Panik, let's say he gets back to be the 2016-17 league-average, 2 WAR player he once was. He's still the second-best 2B on the team, still defensively limited to 2B, and still gone after the season. He's a nice guy to have in AAA, but even a rejuvenated Panik doesn't offer much.

Yes, I know about Valera. I disagreed with the decision and I was explaining a little about why I thought it ill-judged.

Ooof, I just realized the return-from-injury number I gave above included 4 rookie-ball rehab games; just AAA he was only a 105 wRC+ after injury.

"Ooof, I just realized the return-from-injury number I gave above included 4 rookie-ball rehab games; just AAA he was only a 105 wRC+ after injury."

If your hope in a prospect is that he had a brief period of time where he was an average player while being old for his league, he's pretty much done as a prospect. Is Alford a better prospect than say Forrest Wall at this point? (Wall is a year+ younger with better numbers). I hope Alford comes out this spring and smashes and earns a spot but you can't keep holding on to players because they were good prospects a few years ago. At some point, the player needs to produce.

Fisher and Alford need everyday ABs to develop their potential. Injuries and the DH spot can help get them those ABs. That takes away the DH spot from Tellez. S Brito will get his everyday ABs with another team's AAA team. So he should continue to develop.

D Smith Jr got an opportunity with Baltimore and did ok. Int'l cap money came our way. But Smith Jr had 1 option left I think.

Gurriel and T Hernandez need 500 ABs to keep developing their abilities and confidence.

Eric Thames used Japan to work his way back to the Majors. There are many ways to do this.

F Wall and J Palacios are 2 future possibilities.

We will need 40 man space for Panik and Petricka. Soon Pearson.

If your hope in a prospect is that he had a brief period of time where he was an average player while being old for his league, he's pretty much done as a prospect.

That was my admission that my earlier point wasn't valid. The main hope for Alford is, of course, that he still has all the tools that made him a top-50 prospect. Of course he still needs to translate that ability into actual performance, hopefully soon. But it's not shocking that a raw toolsy player who had a late start and has dealt with injuries would take longer than most to put it all together.

Reese McGuire has had a similarly slow road to the majors and unimpressive AAA offensive performance, but no one is rubbishing him as a non-prospect. Of course, he's blown the doors off in his brief MLB time, and I think he's the better prospect, but it's not a huge difference between the two. McGuire brings more positional value, but Alford brings good defence as well, adds value on the basepaths, and has a higher ceiling. Both have to put together the offensive package to be more than role players.

I'm not sure I'd say Wall has better numbers - he has better AA numbers than Alford's AAA numbers, I grant. But Alford blew through AA a year younger than Wall, and on his first attempt, while Wall needed to repeat the level. Maybe Wall will do better than Alford in AAA, but that obviously hasn't happened yet.

I see about 8 or 9 pitchers getting a shot in the pen before Petricka.

The biggest problem with Panik is that Drury is the backup infielder.
I'd rather have Tellez than Panik as the DH.

The other spot is the first baseman platooning with Shaw.
Maybe Tellez could get some of those starts.
He hits lefties well enough.
Neither Drury, Panik, Hernandez, Biggio, Alford or Fisher is an option I like.

1. Getting 3 of Guerrero, Biggio, Bichette, Gurriel, Janssen/McGuire producing on any given night might not be a such a tall order.

2. On paper the Jays depth isn't worse than the Red Sox's or the Yankees's.

3. There's quite a bit of pitching depth. Yankees already have Severino and Paxton on the scratch list.

Yes, the injuries have been an issue for Alford and have hindered his development. I still think he has a decent shot at being a big leaguer.

Agreed that there are lots guys ahead of Petricka in the bullpen battle. Either Thornton or Yamaguchi, Giles, Dolis, Bass, Font, Gaviglio, Romano, Pannone, Bergen, Cole, Miller, Baker, and I wouldn't mind seeing a guy like Waguespack or Reid-Foley moved there, although the team has said the losing starter candidates will still be starters for now. The thing is, there simply isn't room in Buffalo and NH for all those starters, unless they use tandems for several of them.

I think Thornton has a leg up on the fifth spot as he was the Jays most effective starter last year. I know that's not saying much, but he did look good the last half of the season and did start 29 games overall.

Thornton has the lead, but Yamaguchi *really* wants to start and was promised a shot.
His contract has a substantial bonus for starting enough games.

162 gm X 9 innings = 1458 innings.

162 gm X 6 innings = 972 innings.

162 gm X 5 innings = 810 innings.

The 6 inning quality start does not happen as often league wide as in the past. So redefine to 5 innings/start.

I was thinking that pitchers in the pen going 3 innings have a lot of value. Gaviglio, Pannone and ex starters.

1 inning for the closer and elite set up men.

MLB TV will black out all Blue Jay games for 2020. If you don't have cable and want to watch you have to sign up for Sportsnet Now.

Does anyone have a link to the Jays 2020 Minor League ST schedule yet?

Seven months of Sportsnet Now for 1 team (Jays) = $140... MLB TV for 29 teams = $121.

" They give the Jays a 0.1% chance of winning the division "

So you're sayin' we got a chance ?

"MLB TV will black out all Blue Jay games for 2020. If you don't have cable and want to watch you have to sign up for Sportsnet Now."

This is the dumbest thing baseball does. Their insistence on creating content monopolies means that the game can't grow. Twitter is filled with highlights of other sports. Baseball shuts it down immediately. The blackouts are so dumb long term. I used to get MLB TV because I could watch a bunch of games but now I won't so in the end, I will watch less baseball. Yes, MLB will squeeze some more money out of some fans but the game won't grow. Fix this, not some idiotic playoff formats and crazy new rules.

After years of allowing Jays games on mlb tv, I wonder why the change now? Very frustrating.

Well, that makes my decision to cut MLB.tv out of my budget a very good one.  I decided since I'm getting Sportsnet Now anyways as part of my cable package that I might as well just go with that for now.  I plan to cut cable soon and when I do I'll go for Sportsnet Now so I get basketball, hockey, and other stuff in addition to baseball, even though it will be a bit more expensive.  If not for this decision I might have stuck with MLB.tv instead as those other sports are 'meh' to me.

I remember watching games on CBC and CTV. I find most businesses lacking any kind of long term vision.  The overall thought seems to be "how much can we get now." Blackouts are stupid.
I used to follow the Raptors, especially with one blog. It died with sports net blogs at a time when there was zero coverage in the papers and I had no cable, and for whatever reason radio reception died. I don't miss the NBA at all. I dont really miss Roger's Center either, and probably won't go to many games anymore unless my kid is a fan. But he won't likely get much exposure.

Actually, they do "grow"  the game.
Don't forget the Facebook exclusive games and the Youtube exclusive games.
I was quite annoyed at paying for Sportsnet and not even getting all the games.

I checked and it seems like this year Facebook will have only 6 non-exclusive games.

How extensive is this blackout? I'm assuming for Ontario/Canada? I can't imagine they'll black out Toronto games here in California? That's been one of the perks of cheering for a team thousands of kilometers away - their games are rarely blacked out on mlb.tv (and nhl.tv). In the 2015/2016 MLB playoffs, I was able to VPN to Canada to watch them (they WERE blacked out in the US) - I guess I'll have to go through Mexico instead now..

I have MLB.tv and the only games blacked out for me are Yankees and Mets games, which are on TV if I wanted to watch it. So it does not impact my ability to watch Jays games.

I have no issues with blackouts for that reason, but I can see why people who live in the city of the team they root for would be annoyed by it. TV networks pay a lot of money for exclusive rights to these games so it’s possible that it’s not so much MLB as much as it is the networks. As long as MLB continues to get huge television deals from these local networks we will continue to see blackouts.

Since I use a VPN, it doesn't matter to me where the Jays are blacked out on MLB.tv. It DOES matter to a lot of other Jays fans, however.

Once again, Rogers, well done. You sure won't have to worry about getting any of my money as a mobile customer anytime soon.

The Yankees have majority stake in the YES Network (which broadcasts almost all of their games), and Yankee games are blacked out on MLB.tv in the Tri-State area. In the NBA package, all Knicks games are blacked out for me despite James Dolan owning MSG, MSG Network, and the Knicks. I won't disagree that is sucks for the fans, it obviously does, but the teams/networks want local fans to watch the local broadcasts and/or attend games live, so blackouts appear to be their way of facilitating that.

The issue MLB faces is cord cutting, an older fan base, and society changing the way it consumes TV. If someone only wants to watch games on their smart phones, and that option is taken away from them due to blackouts, then they are more likely to do something else with their time rather than pay for cable or attend a game. That is where it's going to hurt baseball down the road, unless they find another way to increase fan interest.

What bugs me the most is what we've come to accept as consumers. Ad revenue used to pay for sports broadcasting; we could watch (our local team, at least) for free.

Compare a baseball broadcast from the 80's to one from today. The amount of airtime (and space) devoted to advertising these days is really ridiculous, and I guess I tolerate it the same way a frog tolerates being immersed in water that gradually heats to boiling. And to top it off, I have to pay for this privilege.

It's understandable, though. These poor corporations can barely afford to stay afloat while providing this level of altruism; it's not like they're putting up record profits or something.

As someone who has never taken advantage of whatever people you voted for, and has never taken advantage of industry rates, and has never still voted against "YOUR government..."

I don't know if anybody else has noticed but retail is dying, and cutting cable and boycotting games as if it's going to inspire Rogers to give back and cut into their profits to make you happy...probably not the best plan. Some people won't be happy until their entire life is filled with counterfeit goods purchased online from foreign companies which have bankrupted our country. And no, paying $60-$150 to go to a baseball game or subscribe to cable is not outlandish.

I'm going against the grain here - stop whining and go watch Ryu pitch this year either in the Dome, at home or in a local bar or restaurant.

Shapiro said in an interview this week that the move was made by MLB, not Rogers, and that the Jays are also now using the same merchandising company as the rest of MLB (prior to this season they were the outlier).