The uniforms look awful but Vlad looks noticeably thinner.

Those uniforms are hideous. I love them.

I vote for blue light and smoke machines around home plate during games.

This contradicts my previous comments about the videos he posted where he didn't look better, but I must agree that he does look to have trimmed up at least a bit. He also looks to have added some mass in the shoulders. Let's hope he keeps it going and shows up in much better shape this year.

Those are just alts, right? I don't want to look at those half the games...

Luckily these are just alts, and the less they wear these the better.
More importantly, Vlad does look thinner. This matches with the instagram photos and vids I saw back in October and November. He's definitely working on the weight issue.

Thumbs up to the Joe Panik signing.

I've seen worse. The Raptors were playing the Minnesota Timberwolves last night and the Minnesota uniforms were neon green.

The Joe Panik signing makes me think the Jays may be serious at giving Cavan Biggio a run in CF (at least in spring training).

Those uniforms are hideous to look at and one more reason not to watch & yes those Timberwolves neon green uniforms are worse.

I like the uniforms.
Guerrero carried too much fat in his lower body.
It's hard to tell by this picture, but he seems slimmer.

I do quite like the caps that go with these.

I like these unis and those wolves unis.

With Carlos Martinez going back into the Cardinals rotation, I think Ken Giles wold be great closing games for the Cardinals and the Jays have done business with them - I still like Alex Reyes.

The earliest anything will happen with Giles is in ST. Jays won't offer extension without seeing if the 98+ FB is still there, nor will teams make realistic offers for him till then for same reason.

That said, I think the Jays have decided to hold on to him for now. Like any situation that is always subject to change should there be reason (great offer) to change it.

It wouldn't make sense to me to sign Ryu and then trade Giles. They are trying to be competitive either this year, or next year at the latest. They have a closer, one of the best in the game, and no obvious replacement. They should try to sign him to an extension. Now, if he doesn't want to stay, and won't sign, OK, then trade him.

I like the powder blue uniforms. Might get one of the shirts.

Hearing comments about trading for Lindor or signing Gregorious to play 2nd I think that Biggio to CF is happening, at least on a trial basis.

There is a real chance in my opinion that Biggio goes to CF, Hernandez to DH, Tellez to 1B and Shaw to 2B.

I think there is no chance of that happening. None of those moves make sense to me.

Read somewhere that the Jays are happy that Bo and Biggio are showing a lot of willingness to adapt to whatever the team needs from them.  This suggests strongly the Jays are in the hunt for Lindor or someone else to play SS and move Bo to 2B and Biggio to CF.  It would be interesting if the Jays find a way to get Lindor without giving up any key pieces as he will be very expensive in prospects - every year he has played 100+ games he was an all-star, got MVP votes, and either a Gold Glove or Silver Slugger.  He is singed for 2020, arbitraiton for 2021 before free agency.  Has only played at SS or DH or PH.  I'd suspect we'd be looking at losing at least 3 top 10 prospects and they'd need to be close to the majors as Cleveland won over 90 last year.  Getting him would hurt, but dang would it be nice if it doesn't cost Vlad/Bo/Biggio or Pearson.  I could see one of the big 2 catchers, Gurriel and prospects.  See if Cleveland falls for Fisher :)

I mean the Lindor trade scenarios I see are:

Lindor for Pearson, Hiraldo, Jimenez, Waguespack
Lindor for Groshans, Woods-Richardson, Jimenez, Waguespack

Lindor is terrific, but he's a free agent in 2 years. Why would the Jays want to give up a lot of top level young talent for a guy they might only have for 2 seasons, the first of which might be a year away from serious contention? That flies in the face of everything they've been doing.

It depends if they're willing to offer up 275+ million to extend him, but really I don't think they make that move.

I really just posted what I think are trade scenarios it would take to get Lindor.

Lindor, like Betts, is keen on reaching free agency and getting the biggest possible contract.

They check what the price is, because they don't want an opponents to get him at a discount, but they don't pay an exorbitant price either. 

I am hoping for a 10 year window for contending.

If the 1st year is 2021 then the last year would be 2030.

Our current core would be in their early 30s in the 10th year of contending. What would be required IMO is an appropriate budget and a farm that is producing impactful young replacements. Orelvis Martinez, M Hiraldo, Groshans are this type of prospect. Very good pitching is also necessary. Aces, #1s, closers and set up men.

Shapiro and Atkins addressed this very clearly about 2 years ago with the "waves of prospects". More recently the concept of "years of control" is being used as a teaching tool to the Toronto media and fans.

I feel like if they had white pants with those jerseys, maybe they'd be okay. Maybe. But...yeah. Probably best to limit the usage of those. I've never understood the baby blue thing.

Personally, I like them as a change of pace, although they do work a lot better when you wear the pants like Grichuk and Bichette do. That Nike swoosh is going to take a lot of getting used to, however.

Agreed there is no point to trading for Lindor unless the Jays plan to extend him quickly.  I'd make that a condition of any trade - that the Jays could negotiate with Lindor on a long term deal (5+ years) before closing the deal.

3 bad contracts like Tulo, Martin and Morales and the financial flexibility is gone. And most likely your job as well.

3 bad contracts like Tulo, Martin and Morales and the financial flexibility is gone. And most likely your job as well.

You can certainly make the argument that the Jays already have one (Grichuk's remaining 4 years) and potentially two depending on Ryu's health going forward.

You only get to spend your future payroll once, and it seems like most fans are suggesting to spend it many times over already.

On a completely unrelated tack, the Buffalo Bisons just might be the oldest team name in milb.

Interesting to see that so many names have come and gone and that two of the oldest teams are "Indians".
One belongs to the Pirates and the other to the Rangers.

The Bisons spent some time in the National League and did not play for a stretch of 7 years (I think) and so are not counted as one of the oldest active teams.

I'd say the chances of Nolan Arenado being the opening day 3B on another team has increased.

come on shapkins, make this offseason an unmitigated success.

one more major add.

SD has made a lot of good bullpen moves. This will help their young and mostly unproven rotation.

They need offense. I don't know what they have added.I wonder if Colorado will trade within their division. Arenado!!

Good move by the Braves signing Ozuna for 1/$18m.

Congratulations, Larry Walker Hall of Famer.

I think Nicholas Castellanos would make a great addition at 1B or DH.

I think there are a couple of conclusions we can make form recent rumblings/signings:

TBJ not comfortable giving up any type of draft compensation unless for elite talent. They didn't sign Ozuna but allegedly went after Cole.

TBJ not interested in parting with top end prospects considering they didn't deal for Price and Betts which was only asking price out there according to Olney.

TBJ are more confident than we think in their OF carousel, believing they can hit on 2-3 players out of Fisher, Hernandez, Grichuk, McKinney, Alford, Davis...

TBJ are very high on exit velocity and spin rates...look at the leaderboards and you can see what type of player this FO likes.

About time Walker got in. Looking at the 2 guys elected today, Jeter had 72.4 bWAR over his career, Walker had 72.7. Jeter gets in first year, unanimous but for 1 vote, Walker needs 10 years to just barely squeak in. Crazy. Sure, Jeter had a good post season career, with an OPS about 20 points higher than during the regular season, but the massive difference in HOF voting is absurd. Perfect example of why I don't pay much attention.

Yah, that Lou Marsh award for Canadian Athlete Of The Year in 1997 was ridiculous. I loved Walker's comment "I lost to a machine". At least they tried to make amends by awarding him the award the next year, even though he had a significantly worse season. The Lou Marsh voters have a strong bias against the major professional sports leagues. Another thing, like the HOF, that has little credibility due to the vagaries of voting.

For those who aren't familiar, in 1997, Walker hit .366, and led the league in the following categories - OBP .452, SLG .720, OPS 1.172, HR's 49, and total bases, with 409. He drove in 130 runs, scored 143, stole 33 bases and was caught stealing only 8 times, won a Gold Glove, the MVP award, Silver Slugger Award, struck out only 90 times vs 78 walks, produced 9.8 bWAR, and of course, played in the All-Star game. One of the greatest seasons of the modern era in baseball, and wasn't named Canadian athlete of the year - heck, he was the world's athlete of the year.

The one writer who refused to put him on deserves accolades

I think he's an idiot, myself.

Noting that the writer in question has not made himself/herself the centre of attention on this, there are a couple of valid reasons to leave Jeter off a ballot. The first is that you think there are more than 10 HoF worthy guys there, so you put someone on that needed the vote more. Pretty defensible position, I think, since Jeter was obviously going to make it anyway and there are plenty of writers who picked 10 players on this ballot (I would too). The second is you think Jeter's career has been vastly overrated - there are several reputible defensive metrics out there that have him as so bad that he becomes a borderline case (which would make the first point all the more sensible). I've argued this point on here before, and I don't think it's a crazy position to take. Just because fangraphs and baseball reference are the most successful websites doesn't guarantee their metrics are more valid.

If the writer did it out of spite, or for later attention, that's bad. The writers who looked at this year's group and voter for just Jeter, or just Jeter and Vizquel...those are also terrible. The HoF remains mostly fun to debate for me, but also remains a weirdly terrible organization at inducting members. I'm really tired of the "momentum" nonsense. Walker was clearly qualified when he retired, and most writers waited for consensus to form before voting for him. Which was slow to happen in part because of a ballot crowded with (over)qualified players that were also waiting for this. It's all part of the entertainment, I suppose.

Jeter was going to be on no matter what.
I'm glad at least one writer had the balls not to designate him as the best position player of all times.
The "unanimous" thing is a stupid division to have in the Hall.

Last resort move, really. What other middle of the order bat is still out there? They hope he has a career year. They're OK with losing a pick because they get one back for Donaldson.

Agree completely with AWeb's case above. To me there are about 30-40 players not in the hall who were superior to Jeter once you consider defense (Vizquel for one and I dont even consider him a HOFer).

I was shocked that he even came close to a unanimous vote. Rivera was so much better than his peers throughout his entire career (and history) that it merited a unanimous vote. Conversely Jeter was never the best at his position for even a single year.

Actually I think that the only reason he got close to unanimous is that the New York hype machine scared writers into thinking that they would be the only dissenting vote.

Kudos to the writer who held firm. A good example of why writers should NOT have to publish their ballot publicly.

At least 30% of writers held on to keep bonds and Clemens out. 2 more years.

The biggest move by SD was to get Tommy Pham to play left field so they can put Will Myers on the bench.
Their rookie catcher who can hit a little will displace their other catcher who can't hit.
They also replaced Ian Kingsler with Jurickson Profar.
And they acquired Trent Grisham to replace Franmil Reyes--maybe not an improvement.

They're mostly waiting on prospects to break out, as they probably should be.

The Jays bullpen is a different matter. They're loaded with pitching prospects and some will have to end up in the pen.
It's worth noting that Yamaguchi signed a contract which pays him an extra 3M if he reaches 170 innings per season.
Obviously, he wants to start.

I don't think Bonds and Clemens are going to make it, unless a lot of the older voters suddenly retire.

As for Jeter, I think the irritating, over-the-top, fawning we encountered every October created a backlash that was equally over the top. More than 19,000 men have played in the major leagues and exactly ten of them scored more runs. He's nestled in between Stan Musial and Lou Gehrig. I think scoring runs is important. And while I certainly wouldn't argue that he was a good defensive player I have issues with the notion that a team could average 96 wins per season with a historically awful player at a crucial defensive position. I don't think that's possible. I think any analysis that says it is needs to rethink its assumptions.

Rockies GM is the worst in baseball. He's assembled a terrible farm system, signed Arenado to that terrible contract and is now going into a 2020 season where Ian Desmond, Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw will make $58.5 million this season.

If Bridich trades Arenado I expect it to be more of a salary dump like the Stanton trade than a blockbuster of top prospects.

Toronto could probably get him for Lourdes Gurriel jr and Pardinho alone if they assumed the whole contract and he agreed to not opt out...that would be an overpay that likely lands Arenado here.

"To me there are about 30-40 players not in the hall who were superior to Jeter once you consider defense (Vizquel for one and I dont even consider him a HOFer)."

I hate the Jeter hype machine but this nonsense. Jeter is a very clear HOFer and Vizquel is a very clear non HOFer. WAR is a blunt tool and I don't think does Jeter justice really because defensive metrics are simply not that good and WAR treats them as just as reliable as offensive statistics. For example, here are Jeter's defensive WAR numbers from 1998-2002
10.1, -2.4, -16.4, -10.2, 7.0. That's just silly.The hagiography around him is annoying but Jeter was a tremendous player for a very long time and a very easy Hall of Famer.

I ran a Play Index for Arenado- looking for third basemen who between ages 24 and 28 were durable (3000+ PA), very good but not great hitters (OPS+ between 119 and 139) and very good defenders (dWAR greater than 5).  I got two comps- Scott Rolen and Robin Ventura.  Rolen had his best season at age 29 and was very good until age 35.  Ventura has his best season at age 31 and was quite good until age 34.  I'd anticipate that Arenado would end up between Ventura and Rolen.  Ventura provided 24 WAR between age 29 and 36; Rolen provided 32 WAR.  I'd figure Arenado for 28 WAR during that frame.  The contract leaving aside the buyout isn't bad- just fair.

Growing up in the area, I saw Jeter's career from start to finish, and he's a no doubt Hall of Famer. He was a phenomenal player and also one of the biggest mainstream stars in baseball. It is easy for people to root against him since he was on the dynasty Yankees in the late 90's and everyone wants to hate the super team, but there's no denying his numbers or his talent. His playoff numbers were also right in line with his career numbers (with a large sample size) so there was no drop off in the big moments.

Whether he got all the votes or was one shy of all the votes, it doesn't really matter. Baseball would kill to have another Jeter right now.

Does Arenado have a no trade clause as well as an opt out?

Also I don't know how players can demand a trade. S Rolen made that demand to the Jays I believe.

Jeff Blair is suggesting that pitchers may throw at Houston hitters next year. Send a message about cheating!! Grichuk gave a detailed opinion on how the cheating hurt other hitters. Those in AAA looking at promotions and hitters on other teams getting Arb values based on Bregman etc ...

If I were a team negotiating for Arenado, I'd use the Stanton trade as a template - the Yankees gave up nothing of consequence and the Marlins also took back Starlin Castro's contract.

If I'm the Jays I'd offer something like Grichuk (in lieu of the Rockies paying down some of Arenado's contract),T.J. Zeuch,Joey Murray and Kevin Vicuna - sign Yasiel Puig to a one year contract to replace Grichuk. I don't need Arenado to waive his opt out - if Arenado has 2 5-6 WAR seasons and then decides to leave, that's ok with me as I think one of Groshans/Martinez/Hiraldo should be ready to take over.

Very well thought out trade 85bluejay. Using the Stanton trade. However Stanton was injured a lot more than Arenado. Every FO has to do what they think is right based on the teams/ownerships goals.

Kind of off topic but does anyone have the Baseball America Top 100 list? I would expect 4 Blue Jays to make it.

Glevin,

What's a discussion without a little hypobole? I admit that the Vizquel thing was intentionally over the top.

That being said Jeter was overrated offensively due to the fact that he was always surrounded by elite bats. He has longevity, was a good base runner, and is scandal free. That's a resume for HOF consideration. It is not a resume for the second highest % of the vote ever.

I said I can come up with 30-40 players not in the hall that are better than Jeter. So here goes.

Cecil Travis (better than Jeter but for a war)
Lou Whitaker
Scott Rolen
Andruw Jones
Curt Schilling
Bonds (not that I think he should be in)
Clemens (not that I think he should be in)
Pete Rose (not that I think he should be in)
Mark McGwire (not that I think he should be in)
Bobby Abreu
Sammy Sosa (not that I think he should be in)
Manny Ramirez (not that I think he should be in)
Jeff Kent
Gary Sheffield
Todd Helton
Joe Jackson (who probably doesn't deserve to be in but... field of dreams)
Fred McGriff
Jose Canseco (not that I think he should be in)
Carlos Delgado
Lance Parish (undervalued position)
Jim Kaat (if we are going to value Jeter's compiling...)
David Cone
Orel Hersheiser
Jack Morris (ok, I just put that one in to troll)
Kevin Brown (not that I think he should be in)
Dwight Gooden
Billy Wagner
Willie Randolph
Bill Dahlen
Graig Nettles
Alex Rodriguez (not that I think he should be in)
Mike Trout
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols
Justin Verlander
Clayton Kershaw
Felix Hernandez
Robinson Cano
Joey Votto
Adrian Beltre
Buster Posey
Zack Greinke
Max Scherzer
CC Sabathia

That's over 40 that either are flat out better than Jeter or at least deserving of a place in the same conversation.

Whiterasta80, what do you think of Dave Stieb?

Taijuan Walker still unsigned, probably holding out for a ML deal - would love if the jays could snag him on a minor league deal with invite to spring training.

Players who were of approximately the same value as Jeter (excluding the known PED and banned players): Dahlen, Whitaker, Grich, Lofton, Rolen.  Schilling was obviously better.  I didn't realize that Lofton arguably had a higher peak in 93-94 than Jeter did in 98-99. 

That's a pretty good trade scenario, but one the Rockies probably don't make because they won't want Grichuk.

Hey finch, the Jays had 3 on the BA Top 100 with one more listed as a just miss.

Thanks!

"Players who were of approximately the same value as Jeter (excluding the known PED and banned players): Dahlen, Whitaker, Grich, Lofton, Rolen. Schilling was obviously better. I didn't realize that Lofton arguably had a higher peak in 93-94 than Jeter did in 98-99."

You can make a case for a number of players as good as Jeter and maybe a few better but it's a small list not a large one and would be similar to almost any HOFer not in the inner circle. Jeter is a slamdunk HOFer. He's the best eligible SS not in the HOF. The most similar players to him are all in the HoF (Biggio, Yount, Alomar, Molitor, etc...). Yes, the NY media stuff is annoying, but trying to make Jeter seem like some sort of OK player is a bit absurd. He was a fantastic player and one of the best of the era.

Nate Pearson is 7th on Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list while Jim Bowden at The Athletic had him down at 22nd on his Top 50 prospects list which I thought was kind of low.

Average fastball last year per BA: 97 MPH


Here are the rankings:

Pearson - 7... Bowden is citing a straight fastball as reason for his low ranking. BA ranks him higher than Casey Mize which is insane.

Groshans - 29

Woods Richardson - 61


Kirk just missed


Kloff, Manoah, Martinez and Pardinho are in top 150.


Source: https://bluejaysfromaway.com/three-blue-jays-prospects-land-on-baseball-america-top-100-list/

If only Bill Veeck was still around - we'd see a trash can lid promotion for sure!  Could make them mini sized or something so you can bang them whenever Houston came to bat. That'd be fun.  Heck, with phones nowadays you could play the sound of a trash can being banged like they did and do it all the time when they are up to bat, especially if against a flame-thrower :)

"Kloff, Manoah, Martinez and Pardinho are in top 150"

Interesting, that gives them 8 in the top 150. With 30 teams, average would be 5 in the top `50. And you could certainly make a good case that Moreno should be in there as well, and Hiraldo can't be far off.

You can certainly argue about BA's choices and placements, but it's pretty clear to me that the system is a pretty good one especially considering they graduated Biggio, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette last year. 

The prospect list from BA, mentioned above (players who got vote in top 150), does include Gabriel Moreno.

The buyout is the deal killer. All the risk is on the team.
It sounds like Arenado is likely to opt out and if it's where he's going, maybe it's safer for him to stay in Colorado.
There's a risk in going to a contender and not looking amazing. I'm thinking Machado here, who still ended up with a decent contract, but still. He also has a full no-trade clause.

He was expecting the Rockies to keep spending as long as he's on the team.
That's probably what they told him.

Looking at the BA list I can't see why Jasson Dominguez from the Yanks is listed at 38 having never played a pro game. There are many top J2 signings which never work out despite their tools and with pro data I can't see any reason to have him in the top 100.


It is interesting that they have Groshans higher than Gorman, as it has bene the other way around on most rankings.

SWR having a 70 control grade is impressive.

I'm glad Brennan Davis is finally listed in the top 100 as he was a breakout player in 2019.

How in God's name did I miss Stieb

Rumour is Cards were asked to part with Jack Flaherty as part of return for Arenado. Source: Passan on radio (read in MLBTraderumors comments).

The Rockies might have asked for Jack Flaherty, but I hope they expect more of a return the Marlins received for Stanton.

Saw at Blue Jays Nation that the Blue Jays are interested in Brock Holt. Mike Green mentioned him as a good addition, and I concur. Last 2 years, he had OPS's of .771 and .774. Somebody who can actually get on base - what a concept. He can play pretty much anywhere and do a decent job with the glove. Had 2.3 WAR combined for 2019 and 2018 in just over a full season's worth of plate appearances. Handles lefty pitchers OK, although his limited power disappears against them. If it gets Brandon Drury off the roster, that's another plus. He made $3,750,000 last year, so he won't be cheap. Trade Rumours pegged him at $4 million a year for 2 years, the same as fangraph's crowdsource number, but their writer, Kiley McDaniel estimated 2 years @ $7.5 million. With his versatility, and on base ability, I wouldn't be surprised if got something closer to McDaniel's number than the $4 million/year figure.

In 1994, the Expos finished 94-40 and Larry Walker was the third best outfielder on the team behind Moses Alou (5.1 bWAR) and Marquis Grissom (5.1 bWAR)--Walker had 4.7 bWAR. Rondell white was the 4th outfielder and had an OPS of .822 in 40 games. Toronto had Shawn Green, Joe Carter and Devon White back then.

He certainly wasn't appreciated in Montreal and the whole story isn't clear to me. Walker would play hard and run into injury frequently. His knee had been surgically reconstructed in 88 and he was playing on turf at the big O. It seems to be telling that his biggest fan was a pastor from Vermont.

Brock Holt could be like Steve Pearce. But not as injury prone.

I don't think Pearson ranking ahead of Mize is insane at all.

I think Pearson has him beat on both upside and milb performance so far.

Johnny Mize is Joe Posnanski's player of the day today in his top 100.  When I saw Pearson over Mize, I was thinking "Albie" over "Johnny".  Showed my age (again)...

Brock Holt would make a lot of sense.  Played at 2B-1B mainly but also at RF/SS/3B/LF last year.  Basically is a backup everywhere but CA.  Lifetime over 100 games at 2B/3B/LF and over 10 in RF/SS/1B/CF - 10+ starts at all but CF where he has started 9 times (2014/15 only).  Lifetime 271/340/374 92 OPS+ so a decent backup, but not a likely starter.  If signed I'd release Drury if no one wants him in a trade.  He'd also help build up the 'Biggio to CF' stories.  Most likely role for him would be a lot like he was in Boston - move around the diamond as needed to give guys a day off.  He could be Bo's backup at SS (6 games there last year) and Biggio's at 2B (60 G last year), while also getting time in the OF/3B/1B as needed.

FYI: if Holt is signed he wouldn't be the primary backup at SS - if Bo goes down you'd need a real SS to fill in - hopefully some kid in AAA or a AAAA player.  He could fill in full-time for Biggio or Vlad if needed.

I guess it is safe to say that last year the Jays cared little about winning. Buchholz and Richard had low performance expectations. D Phelps was expected to be unavailable for the 1st 2 months. We discussed Borucki not making the team because Richard was a proven ML pitcher. A lot more went wrong with the pitching which may not have been anticipated. Borucki, Zeuch, SRF, Tepera, Bud Norris?, Axford? which maybe covers 60%. We also had Luciano. Maybe enough was done or maybe not. I am being kind.

This year quality/better pitching additions have been made. Ryu, Anderson and Roark. Not a lot of quantity added this off season.

It is safe to say that the team will win more this year. Trying to be positive. A little at least.

I agree that Holt makes a lot of sense and that its likely to cost more than the crowd source number. I actually would have preferred Sogard to Holt (given what Sogard signed for in Milwaukee) but Holt has had the advantage of being more consistent over the years than Sogard and can probably fake SS at a higher level than Sogard. The team is in desperate need of a player like Sogard or Holt (LH utility with OBP skills).

Pipeline has Pearson with a 75 fastball, a 60 slider, a 55 curveball, a 50 change and a 45 for control.
They gave Mize a 60 fastball, a 60 slider and a 70 splitter with a 60 for control.

Mize had 23 walks over 109 innings. Pearson ended up with 27 walks over 101 innings.
If you think the gap in control has closed, then Pearson should rate better because of the higher ceiling.

Sorry but i'll take Mize over Pearson any day. His pitching prowess and change up are already elite. Pearson throws fast and straight.

Casey Mize throws a splitter as his off-speed pitch, not a change-up. Baseball America gave Pearson's fastball an 80 grade and Casey Mise's splitter a 70 grade.

Unfortunately I put more stock in real life results than paper grades. Just because a magazine says a pitcher has a better pitch rating doesn't mean much to me.

They both look good but Mize looks dominant when healthy, absolutely dominant. Call it a change up or split fingered pitch...it drops at the end of it's trajectory, is 10MPH slower than his fastball and it's unhittable, evidenced by his no hitter in his AA debut and multiple dominating pitching performances before and after that, and he's gone out and logged innings and pitched like an ace...very Halladay-like.

Pearson on the other hand looks more like a mix of Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez. Lots of potential, better control, bigger injury risk and lots of 2-3 inning starts to protect his arm.

Pearson is a fastball/slider pitcher with career 2.32 BB/9 rate in the minors. Aaron Sanchez is a fastball/curveball pitcher who had a career 5.00 BB/9 in the minors and 4.0/9 in the majors. I guess they're both tall, but the comparison kind of ends there.

Baseball America has Pearson averaging 97MPH on his fastball last season. MLB leaderboard for average fastball velocity:

01 97.1 Noah Syndergaard
02 97.2 Gerrit Cole
03 96.9 Jacob Degrom
04 96.7 Zach Wheeler
05 96.6 Walker Buehler
06 96.5 Luis Castillo

There is a real chance Pearson is the hardest throwing starting pitcher in the majors from day one. The other guys averaging over 96 are pretty good.

Last Year

AAA

Mize: ---
Nate: 3gs, 6.0ip/gs, 21.7k%, 4.4b%, 44.0gb%, 3.00era, 4.07fip, 4.45xfip

AA

Mize: 15gs, 5.3ip/gs, 23.5k%, 5.6b%, 41.1gb%, 3.20era, 2.98fip, 3.13xfip
Nate: 16gs, 3.9ip/gs, 28.3k%, 8.6b%, 39.1gb%, 2.59era, 2.90fip, 3.12xfip

A+

Mize: 6gs, 5.1ip/gs, 28.0k%, 4.7b%, 46.4gb%, 0.88era, 1.94fip, 2.69xfip
Nate: 6gs, 3.5ip/gs. 46.7k%, 5.0b%, 35.1gb%, 0.86era, 1.64gip, 1.07xfip



interesting comp for sure.

Nate has better numbers overall, but Mize is about 9 months younger than Nate, and you're right he was pitching significantly deeper into games on average, as the Jays didn't let Nate get fully stretched out until the end of the year in AA and to start AAA.

Mize has a more refined 4 pitch arsenal and command, while Nate seems to have the bigger arm. It's hard to get an 80 rating on the fastball if it's "straight", though.

Health could have been a difference maker,  but Mize was shut down for a year due to arm fatigue, so it's a total crapshoot.

There are not a lot of pitchers who struggle when controlling a 97+ fastball.
We got 2 guys with elite splitters in Shoemaker and Yamaguchi.
We'll see how that goes.

Mize and Pearson are fantastic prospects. I will wait 3 years to see if both or either have become Aces.

This sort of means that F Whitley and M Kopech are a notch below Mize and Pearson. They still have the potential to become Aces or #1s.

I will suggest that J deGrom is an Ace and Stroman is a #1.

I want my prospect list to have reasonably clear tiers. Potential Ace, #1, 2 and 3. I expect 4 and below will fill themselves out soon enough.

I will put SWR as a potential #1 because of his age, results, league and the stuff that he is supposed to have in his arm and head.

Is the draft pick attached to G Cole the top pick for Houston?

They can still spend money, make trades and have a strong farm system.

How much of a red flag is Pearson’s injury history? From a lay perspective, throwing 97-100 with a screw in his elbow seems like it could become a problem over time.

eh, all pitchers' arms could blow up at any time.

Mize has already been shut down for shoulder fatigue.

Mize >>>> Pearson and it isn't close imo having seen both a bunch last year on MILB.tv, Mize has much better command/control which is the tipping point for me.
Pearson has a very bad habit of missing up with his fastball which accounted for alot of his HRs last year.
Mize's splitter is insane and will help him get out LH once he hits the majors asap.

I wish milb splits were easier to find, but NP had nearly 6 bb/9 vs lefties while he was in AA, so looks like he still needs to work alot on his change.

I mean Mize was the first overall pick and has done nothing to dispel the idea that he is elite since he arrived in the minors. He's a prospect, no doubt.

I'll still take Pearson because Mize has the more recent injury history (being "shut down" scares the H out of me) and because he's hit AAA and not looked out of place. Also, he's "ours".

It's nice to be the team defending the toolsy prospect over the more refined prospect for once.

Yes Mize is much more polished.

But where he tops out at 97, Nate tops out at 104. Sometimes we dismiss velo but that is a big difference.

And while his splitter is great, Mize doesn't have a traditional breaking ball, and nate throws his true slider as hard as Mmize's splitter.

We will see when they are both in MLB because there are too many biased views on this TBJ board.

If Mize was a Blue Jay and Pearson a Tiger everybody would be laughing at the idea of Nate being better. Aside from Baseball America its pretty consistent across the industry that Mize is the best pure pitching prospect since who knows when...maybe Kershaw?

There will always be guys with bigger potential like Gore or Pearson but chances of those guys working out as 7+ inning starters leading in many categories is slim imho. Pearson has as good a chance of being a Giles-like reliever as he does a SP. Major leagues are really really hard. When you get up there you need to be some kind of pitcher to avoid MLB players adjusting. They will lay off your slider, only swing at strikes and guess what...they don't care how hard you throw and those pop ups all turn into HRs.

I'm going to predict that SWR ends up being our best prospect after Vlad.

Best pure pitching prospect since Kershaw? That's just downright outlandish. Is he an excellent pitching prospect? Of course, but lets not shoot him to the moon.

At Mize's age last year, Kershaw was a 3rd year stud MLB SP Cy Young candidate.

You may have your scope out of alignment on Mize, Dalimon.

"Kloff, Manoah, Martinez and Pardinho are in top 150"

Center fielder Corbin Carroll, who was available to the Jays when they selected Manoah (and who is two and a half years younger than Manoah), is already #90 on BA's list. I think Manoah was a good choice, but it's too bad the team couldn't have its cake and eat it too (Manoah and Carroll).

I would take Pearson over Mize.

I'd take a Sid Fernandez type career for Pearson.

I preferred Corbin Carrol, but Manoah was a good pick.

Reports out just now that the Blue Jays have signed Hanshin Tigers ace closer Rafael Dolis. Since 2016, Dolis has had ERA's of 2.12, 2.71, 2.80 and 2.51, and has 96 saves. Last season, he allowed only 38 hits and 12 walks in 57 innings, while striking out 52. He didn't have much success in a couple of short stints with the Cubs in 2012/13, but he was quite young at the time. He just turned 32. One year deal plus club option. Looks like he's a candidate for a 7th/8th inning job.

He averaged 95.1 mph on his fastball he threw 80% of the time when he was last in the majors. Hopefully he has improved his breaking stuff while in Japan.

Name a better prospect than Mize since Kershaw. Read carefully. "Best since" is not equal to "as good or better than" Kershaw.

My view is based on his pedigree, minor league domination and widely expected success people think he will have in the majors.

Has anybody here watched him and Pearson in minor league ball besides myself and Tercet?

Thank you

"Has anybody here watched him and Pearson in minor league ball besides myself and Tercet?"

I would guess the BA staff has seen them live. Probably more than you guys have.

Mlb pipeline also has them neck and neck as their only 2 65 grade RHP.

The Jays have signed Rafael Dolis, who has been pitching well in Japan.

Out of nowhere. He's 32.
The last time he was around MLB he was mostly a fastball/slider guys sitting at 96mph.

They'll have to drop someone when they announce the move.
Probably Valera.

I'll wait for the terms of the deal, but assuming that they are reasonable, thumbs up on the Dolis signing. Holt and Dyson would cap off a productive off-season.  Obviously, I would have preferred to see Rendon or Cole here, but that may not have been realistic.

The Dolis deal is 1 year at 1 million with an option for a second at 1.5. Thumbs up.

not going to pretend to know anything about japanese stats but even then i'm not going to plan anything around a 32yr old reliever with middling strikeout numbers over there.

I figure at $1 mil it is a good risk for the Jays to take.  Worst case, the money lost is (in MLB terms) minimal.  Best case we get a good reliever for 2 years.

I really like the Dolis signing. As I mentioned in my above post, he's had ERA's under 3.00 for 4 straight years. I think he has a good shot a being an effective mlb relief pitcher. For $1,000,000, and no buyout on the option, but if he does well, they have him for another cheap year. Hoping for Holt and another relief pitcher.

The question of who gets dropped to make room for Dolis is worrisome. They have repeatedly made strange looking decisions about whom to keep in similar situations. I would certainly have expected they would keep Urena over Valera, but they didn't. They seem to have an unhealthy bias towards players they have brought into the organization, like Drury, even after the player performs poorly.

no doubt it's a no-risk signing.

I don't see how Valera can make the team and he's out of options.
Drury will also have a lot of competition.

They could be more tough decisions at the end of spring training.
Pannone is the only lefty in the pen.
They'll probably have a long look at Bergen, but Pannone will get the first chance because he's on the roster.

If you think Casey Mize is in the same realm at Strasburg, David Price, Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish or Jose Fernandez in terms of prospect status than I think you are way off.

Honestly I think Mize is more in line with Trevor Bauer, Jordan Zimmerman, or Aaron Nola kind of prospect status. Where they are really good, but they aren't household names getting ESPN treatment. I think Pearson is more along the line of Thor.

Wasn't the best pitching "prospect" Matt Moore?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-100-prospects-for-2012/

Every other major site (BA,BP, MLB) had Moore ahead of Trout, only BA didn't have Moore ahead of both Harper and Trout

I was looking through the lists over the years and there sure were a lot of duds. Dylan Bundy and Shelby Miller are also on that top ten.

Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg fit with Casey Mize when comparing pedigree and performance in minors. Cole, Fernandez, Price and the rest do not.

Pearson doesn't even have half the amount of innings that Mize has. If he is dominant this year then he can join Mize in the rankings but right now his ranking carries too much weight on potential.

Pearson's stuff is elite, there is no question about that, but his pitchability is still in question and that's where Mize excels in spades. See this link where I reference from:

https://www.prospectslive.com/live-looks/tag/Nate+Pearson


If you watched Mize last year you would know he pitched injured his last 3 starts. Take out those 3 starts and the pitching lines aren't even close and that's before you factor in the reality that Pearson faced a line up 1-2 times max vs Mize who ent 3-4 times through line ups.

Of course, pitching while hurt often leads to long term injuries and messing up ones form (as you adjust to avoid pain).  So yeah, Mize might be the better prospect but that jumped his risk factor imo.  Don't forget the Jays felt Stroman and Sanchez were better prospects than Thor way back when they made that trade with the Mets, iirc the Mets demanded one of the 3 or no deal.  And of course TINSTAAPP :)

I wouldn't call any of Moore, Bundy or Miller duds. The term I'd use is "cautionary tales".

Each of those 3 were well on their way to success until major injuries and all 3 were shells of their former selves after the injuries.

Strasburg and Harper were the two most hyped prospects ever. Appearing in ESPN, Baseball America and Sports Illustrated Covers before they were even drafted. Mize wasn't even a consensus first overall pick, and I don't think anybody who do not follow baseball closely would recognize the name.

Interesting that in their minor league careers, Mize and Pearson have each thrown 123 innings. Pearson has a 2.19 ERA, Mize 2.75. Pearson has a 0.87 WHIP, Mize 0.97. Pearson has 146 K's, Mize 120. Opponents are hitting .173 vs Pearson, .209 vs Mize. Pearson's 9 months older, but he missed a year of development with the broken arm, and has reach AAA, while Mize is in AA. I prefer Nate.

Pearson should lose his prospect status this year.
Mize could be the top pitching prospect next year as the Tigers will be one of the worst teams and don't need to burn a year of service.

I know that this is cherry picking. Sorry about that.

Mize and Pearson are joined by other pitchers on the various lists. I do enjoy going through prospect lists.

My cherry picking is this. MacKenzie Gore is younger than both Mize and Pearson and ranked higher at #5 on the list I am looking at. Another cherry I picked (sorry) is SWR just got on the list at 98. He is younger than Gore but has not yet faced AA. Gore faced AA in his latest promotion and did not dominate. In SWR's latest promotion (A+) his numbers were quite good but dominating?? Dominating has never been discussed to the best of my knowledge in definite standards. So I don't fully understand it.

Agreed scottt. Mize and Gore. Unless they pull a F Whitley 50 IP and ERA 7+. I can see Whitley rising in the standings. However falling can also happen.

These lists are not too trustworthy IMO.

Hunter Greene has fallen in the ratings because of TJ surgery. RHP that can do 100 mph on his fastball.

You could say SWR's numbers are legit dominant in a way that none of those others are, bpoz. Especially accounting for age.


AA

Nate (22): 3.9ip/gm, 28.3k%, 8.6b%, 2.59era, 2.80fip, 3.12xfip
Mize (22): 5.3ip/gm, 23.5k%, 5.6b%, 3.20era, 2.98fip, 3.13xfip
Gore (20): 4.3ip/gm, 27.8k%, 8.9b%, 4.15era, 4.19fip, 3.82xfip
SWR: ---


A+

Nate (22): 3.5ip/gm, 46.7k%, 4.0b%, 0.86era, 1.64fip, 1.07xfip
Mize (22): 5.1ip/gm, 28.0k%, 4.7b%, 0.88era, 1.94fip, 2.69xfip
Gore (20): 5.3ip/gm, 38.2k%, 6.9b%, 1.02era, 2.38fip, 2.76xfip
SWR (18): 4.7ip/gm, 27.1k%, 6.5b%, 2.54era, 2.46fip, 2.93xfip

A

Nate: ---
Mize: ---
Gore (19): 3.8ip/gm, 28.4k%, 6.9b%, 4.45era, 3.25fip, 3.16xfip
SWR (18): 3.9ip/gm, 29.9k%, 5.2b%, 4.25era, 2.53fip, 2.24xfip

"Strasburg and Harper were the two most hyped prospects ever. Appearing in ESPN, Baseball America and Sports Illustrated Covers before they were even drafted. Mize wasn't even a consensus first overall pick, and I don't think anybody who do not follow baseball closely would recognize the name"

You seem to have a lot of confusion understanding my description of Mize as the "best pitching prospect since..." it has nothing to do with hype. I'm talking about pedigree, results and projection, not how fast someone can throw the ball or how far someone can hit a baseball in high school with a metal bat.

Can you explain to me where Strasburg falls short? Because he was other-worldly renowned coming into the draft, spent 11 starts dominating the minors (which people felt at the time was just service time games), and then dominated right away in the majors. If your system doesn't see him as the best pitching prospect since Kershaw (or at least a better pitching prospect than Mize), then your system is broken.

I understand now. Duh!! dalimom5 is talking about "prospects" not actual Major league players.

As ridiculous as this sounds SRF, Urena and Dwight Smith Jr have graduated past prospect status but Mize etc... have not. Unless M Appel and other failed prospects make a comeback and succeed the above 3 Jays have outdone them.

To continue with ridiculous (loosely), trading SRF ( one of my favorites) for Whitley or Kopech is a huge win for the Jays based on prospect lists. But reality (5 years) may not agree.

If the Reds sign Nicholas Castellanos, they are probably moving an outfielder and I know many have liked Jesse Winker and that would be Ok but I also like the less heralded Josh VanMeter who has increased his power output the last 2 years and comes with 6 years of control and may cost less than Winker and also is more versatile.

Interesting, the extra picks for free agents are going straight 68 to 74 and the Astros get the last one for Cole because it's base on team rankings, not free agent rankings.

It's weird that Castellanos is going to end up in the NL. He looks like a fine DH.

Reds are apparently looking to trade Nick Senzel. He's an interesting target. Was a top prospect, had amazing minor league numbers and has struggled so far in the majors but is young enough to still adjust. He was playing CF and 2B for the Reds. He was below average at CF but again was his first year there so maybe he can improve and become average. If things come together, he can be a stud but even if not, is a useful utility player. Not sure what the Reds would want as they look like they are win now so might not be a fit with the Jays but if the Jays think he can stick at CF, he could be a long-term answer there.

"Can you explain to me where Strasburg falls short? Because he was other-worldly renowned coming into the draft, spent 11 starts dominating the minors (which people felt at the time was just service time games), and then dominated right away in the majors. If your system doesn't see him as the best pitching prospect since Kershaw (or at least a better pitching prospect than Mize), then your system is broken."

Spifficus, you need to look upthread at rest of the conversation...Matt Moore and Stephen Strasburg don't fall short, they fall perfectly in line with where I think Mize is. Those three are the only ones discussed in this conversation that have the pedigree, results in minors and high ranking pre draft.

According to Chisolm of The Star, every MLB team is asking the Jays for SWR in trade discussions...

Where did you hear that Senzel is being shopped? It would make sense, but is there a concrete report or just speculation?

Check that, I see it on the ticker now... Jon Heyman.

Not surprising given he might be the best pitching prospect in baseball.

Looks like the Bloom is on the rose in Beantown. MLBTradeRumors citing newspapers who are reporting that the scenario being discussed right now between the Friars and Red Sox is:

Wil Myers
Cal Quantril
Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor

for

Mookie Betts (and possibly David Price? Not clear)

Impasse seems to be if Red Sox can take all or just half of Myers' contract.


This is the deal that can transform the Red Sox rather quickly. This is the type of deal many wished the Jays made with Donaldson.

I would include SRF in a deal if it meant getting Nick Senzel.

That  BOS -SD trade is interesting. Better for SD, but I guess BOS wants something g instead of nothing for Betts?Margot I guess still has promise but is mostly defense.i guess they would then also trade Bradley Jr? Will Myers is salary balance for Price and bounceback possibility? I guess for risk of only getting 1 season of Betts? Quantrill seems to be the get, but more hype than performance to date.I'm assuming BOS would want Naylor. Maybe an extra ifBetts can be extended?

"I would include SRF in a deal if it meant getting Nick Senzel."

Anybody would do that deal except the Reds. SRF has fallen off a cliff and doesn't hold enough value to get someone like Senzel who as recently as last year was ranked ahead of Bo Bichete in prospect rankings based on performance.

That is what I would think too, but if everyone is asking about SRF, as said upthread, strike now! (And I wasn't implying a straight trade would get it done.)

I would explode as a fan if they used Mookie Betts to unload David Price’s contract.

I’m not overwhelmed by Nick Senzl, and he would cost more than what I would want to give up to get him.

rpriske, everyone is asking about SWR, not SRF.

That's a horrendous sounding deal for Boston imo.

So it sounds awesome for me.

"everyone is asking about SWR, not SRF."

Oh, yeah. That makes more sense. I was all like "do it! Quick!"

Wrong guy.

The Bucs received good value for Marte.

BP's list of top 101 prospects has 3 Blue Jays: Pearson 19, Groshans 43 and Manoah 83.  They evidently don't rate SWR as highly as other people.  I'm not worried about it; he'll progress the same whether somebody thinks he's #50 and someone else thinks he is #150. 

Without defining your criteria, the burden's on you to say why Strasburg and Mize are comparable. Or Moore, or Bundy, or others.

His Pedigree (which, absent another definition, I'm treating as a combo of competition-adjusted performance and projection coming into the draft) was fine, but that's with the new bat. Strasburg tore apart the competition at the lesser ranked San Diego State, against hitters using the old bats. Bundy's draft year led to Baltimore giving him an MLB deal. Cole and Bauer were probably comparable from a pedigree standpoint, for various reasons, and again vs the old bats.

His minor league performance is solid but not great - he didn't K a batter an inning, he was good but not great at limiting hits, he was very good but not great at limiting walks (Shane Bieber has spoiled me). He really held down home runs, and that's a damned fine thing. If you want to chalk his good-not-great performances up to his injuries, that's fine, but the injuries serve as a counterbalance (especially the pitching-related shoulder soreness). Again, from his first milb start, Strasburg looked the part of someone who was being kept down for service time issues. Cole and Bauer were arguably in the Mize range, though the walk issues of the latter make that a tougher argument.

As for the widely expected success people believe he will have in the majors, people expected really good things out of Cole (who has now exceeded those expectations) and Bauer (who has been far more inconsistent and largely disappointing). Strasburg was expected to be an ace on day one, and did not disappoint until he left his Aug 21st 2010 start needing TJS.

Look, you think highly of Mize, that's great. I think highly of Pearson (well, and Mize), and I think the better heat and slider provide good counterbalances against the better command and good splitter. It'll be very interesting to see who ends up doing better.

Saying that Mize is in the Strasburg realm, though, represents a fundamental misunderstanding of what Strasburg was, and should make you wonder if your criteria are really capturing what it takes to make a statement like "best pitching prospect since Kershaw". I only need to know Strasburg existed to know that that there's a foundational issue here.

As for the Marte trade, that looks like a good deal for both sides. I tend to be higher than most on Marte's skill in CF going forward, since he has retained his speed according to baseballsavant. I was hoping the Jays could have swung something, but I could never figure out what a good-for-both-sides trade package would look like.

As for Senzel, I would definitely be doing my due diligence, as this is has the potential to lock down CF for 6 years. Again, though, I don't know what a good-for-both-sides trade looks like. I suppose Janssen would need to be headlining the return, which is tough given his need on the Jays.

Impressed by Pittsburgh's return for Marte - might never pan out but I'm always in favour of going for upside talent. Wonder if Dbacks might be interested in Giles? Corbin Carroll would be a nice return.

There are 4 NL teams by my count that don't really believe that they will make the playoffs in 2020. SF, Colorado, Pittsburgh and Miami.

LAD seems to think that they will definitely be in. So many seem to feel they have a shot at the other 4 spots.

In the AL Seattle, KC, Detroit, Baltimore and Toronto. 5. The AL Central does not have a powerful team that is head and shoulders above the others in the division. So this is probably the weakest division and someone has to win it.

With 21 teams believing that they can contend there will be a lot of disappointment and desperation. I expect them to make moves accordingly.

As mentioned the Reds have a lot of OFs. 10 on the 40 man roster. If healthy Akiyama and Castellanos take 2 regular OF spots. Both are this off season additions which means that the other 8 could not cut it at this time because of inexperience or other. Those will have growing pains.

The only good players that we have to trade to any team is Giles. How can we trade him if our goal for this year is to not suck. Jansen is fairly experienced but probably needs more. Grichuk is experienced and good enough, so he has value.

Spifficus, you could have summarized your argument by simply stating: "Stephen Strasburg was better than Casey Mize at the same time."

It is not a burden for me to put forth my opinions which is all they are, opinions. There is no burden, there is no parameter, as you reference. Like I said, if you go through the conversation from the beginning... it should be clear to you that your post is misses the mark.

You're shifting the argument from Mize vs Pearson (opinion) to "you're wrong to say that Mize was best prospect since Kershaw since Strasburg was better." It's incorrect for you to say this because you're missing several points which I will highlight for you now:

* Pearson vs Mize...that's the discussion
* Mize is best prospect since Kershaw or you can say Mize, Moore and Strasburg are the best pitching prospects since Kershaw if you reread the thread and read the post where I include Strasburg, evidently you did not read it, and this is opinion.
* the point is not about who is best pitching prospect since etc...the point is that Mize belongs in that echelon of prospects and Pearson does not, in my opinion.
* the point is not about who is best pitching prospect since etc...the point is that Mize belongs in that echelon of prospects and Pearson does not, in my opinion...I wrote this sentence twice so you didn't miss it

If you do not understand that and take the reading to be a re-imagining of who pitchers like Kershaw or Strasburg were/are and how that is fundamentally wrong because of your reference point for Strasburg...that's on you.

I do not need to define my criteria because the comparison was never between Strasburg and Mize or any of the other pitchers you have added to the list.

I do not have a fundamental misunderstanding of any player in discussion and the only thing I wonder is if you read the posts through and through before responding. As far as foundational issues are concerned, this is Batter's Box not my Empiricist class on David Hume.

The Twins won 100 games and have replaced C.J. Cron with Donaldson.
They stand above Cleveland and the White Sox haven't added enough on the pitching side to be considered a contender.

It's similar with Boston and the Rangers. They would need a lot of things to go right to really be in the picture.

Houston dropped a bunch of decent prospects to get Greinke at the deadline.
That's the best that can be hoped for Giles, somebody desperate at the deadline who overpays.

dalimon5. I had been operating under the assumption that your statement was hyperbole up until now. Instead, it seems like you meant it and you are just going to move the chains until the debate is reframed to your liking.

For what it's worth

Strasburg

Big Gap...huge...

Cole
Price (why isnt he a comparator for mize?)
Moore

Gap

Mize and dozens of others

Small gap

Pearson and 100s of others

And I still take Pearson right now for the reasons I listed above.

Pearson and Mize both excellent, I prefer one, others prefer another.

To explain myself (clearly my argument hasn't been persuasive since there's confusion and I need to explain myself):

It was exaggerated statement I made "Mize is best prospect since Kershaw," to try to show how much better he was than Pearson.

Then it turned into replies of "you forgot about these guys," which then lead to debates about Mize vs those players to which I suggested throwing out his injury/hurt games and using those numbers to compare him to Strasburg and Moore. I argued those 3 were the best since Kershaw when factoring a) pedigree (drafted first overall or thought to be the best when drafted and having best stuff), b) performance in minors and c) potential in MLB (before they played a game).

I shouldn't have written that Stras and Mize were in same level in a follow up post to Spifficus. That's what prompted his reply which in retrospect was not off the mark if you just looked at my last post at the time and not the earlier upthread.

It will be interesting to see how Pearson/Mize perform in 2020, I didn't want to make this about Mize being the best and yes, my exaggerated statement turned it into a non defensible argument. That I can admit but the original argument and opinion hasn't changed. Mize > Pearson

:head_wall:

Exaggeration and hyperbole are fine, but then don't keep doubling down on it. 'Conceding' that Strasburg and Moore were in the same tier as Mize is not any sort of acknowledgement of hyperbole.

And, no, Mize is not in Strasburg territory. That's my point, unless we thought he was ready to dominate in the majors last year (I do not).

And that's all I have to say on this subject. For all-time, forever. 20+ posts on frick'n hyperbole.

Jays Journal has an article saying the Jays should go after Nick Senzel. Which I'm fine with, but then they suggest that the offer should be:

Simeon Woods Richardson, Alejandro Kirk and Griffin Conine

That seems like a massive overpay to me. Would anyone here pay that?

That isn’t enough value for the Jays to give up to get Senzl. However even so the Reds don’t seem interested in prospects and would want major league assets for Senzl. I’m not that interested.

Agreed Spifficus.

That is an overpay for Senzel. Looking at both teams I think a deal involving Giles and Jansen can get you Senzel and maybe a prospect.

Senzel is better than Biggio, worse than Bichete. He has value like Gurriel. The Reds have traded prospects so I would be all over Senzel and would move him back to INF and put Biggio at 1st or OF.

"Strasburg

Big Gap...huge...

Cole
Price (why isnt he a comparator for mize?)
Moore"

The only pitching prospects I can think of valued like Strasburg was Mark Prior but he was in the majors his first season so didn't have too much prospect time.Josh Beckett wasn't far off also. Mize is an excellent prospect. Around the same level as Pearson. There are a few prospects at this level every year. (i.e. in 2015, there was Giolito, Syndergaard, Urius, Bundy, and a few more.)


"Simeon Woods Richardson, Alejandro Kirk and Griffin Conine"

Hanging up the phone laughing. I think the Reds are trying to win so would want major leaguers anyway. I can see a package around Jansen for Senzel as doable and of course would do for Giles in a second.

I am thinking Castellanos and Grichuk are very similar. Case A.

Also think Senzel and Biggio are very similar. Case B.

Biggio was a 5th round pick all the others were 1st round picks. I don't care.

If any of you choose to accept this assignment please indicate if you are talking about them as minor league prospects or ML players. In all cases the ML playing time is close enough in both case A & B.

"Simeon Woods Richardson, Alejandro Kirk and Griffin Conine

That seems like a massive overpay to me. Would anyone here pay that?:

not a chance.

i probably wouldn't trade SWR for him straight up - though i'd need to do a deeper dive on senzel to be sure.

Mize at 7, Pearson at 8 on MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects. Mize has been shut down twice in the last 3 years due to arm fatigue. Groshans came in at 75 on the list, SWR was at 98.

i just don't get how groshans gets rated ahead of SWR by anyone. SWR is a year younger, a level higher, just as dominant statistically, but with less suspicious luck stats (i.e. babip).

i tend to believe the rumours that say every other team wants to steal SWR from us.

FG just posted the Tigers' prospect list and has Manning ahead of Mize because of the elbow and shoulder issues.

SWR will probably take a huge leap on most Top 100 prospect lists after this coming season. I hope Groshans gets in a full season this year and really shows us what he can do.

Here are the Steamer projections for Blue Jay position players.  My bets to do better than projected: Biggio (both offence and defence), Gurriel Jr. (defence),   It's interesting that Steamer projects Jonathan Davis at .226/.304/.358.  If that's right, I think that he's got enough with the glove to be very useful.  Their rating of him defensively is pretty clearly way, way too low. 

All prospect lists IMO have to be taken with a "grain of salt". I know that now. The hard way!!

Jonathan Mayo just did an article "Re-ranking the 2010 prospect list". I respect J Mayo and the others that do these lists. However he himself is admitting that the re-ranked list is drastically different from the 2010 list.

He lists the top 20 and then the next 30. From that 50, 13 "Not Ranked" in the original top 50 are on the new re-ranked top 20. So 7 (top 50) made the re-ranked top 20.

Not ranked M Trout #1 and J Donaldson #5. Ranked #16 Brett Wallace and #17 K Drabek. If we had traded our #1 prospect B Wallace for M Trout and our #2 prospect for J Donaldson I for one would be tearing my hair out. So I am happy that those trades were not made because I would want more than that for my top 2 prospects. I aslo am disappointed about my hair loss since 2010.

Am I the only one that read the Chisolm article at the Star? He also mentioned that SWR has a shot to play in MLB this year according to Baseball America.

"The stretch was so impressive that Baseball America went as far as to suggest Woods Richardson could made his big-league debut by the end of this year. "

"The updated rankings back up what the Jays have been saying for months behind the scenes. Toronto isn’t shopping Woods Richardson, and there’s no reason to expect a deal, but he’s the name teams keep bringing up in talks. He’s in demand and while clubs know Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Nate Pearson are essentially off-limits, they’re in the process of finding out the same about Woods Richardson."

Go to the site to read the article, it's free to read 5 articles I believe before it gets pay walled.

Jays have 7 of top 100 international prospects signed in 2019 according to a list just released on BA. Only the Padres with 8 have more.

Of course having the money to sign 7 usually means that you've missed out on the top of the top options.

Thanks for the tip PeterG I just read through the list. It makes sense that the Jays have a lot of depth in this class as they stayed swayed from the expensive talent at the top of the class. Looking through the videos Robertis has a crazy leg kick, and Peneil Brito has impressive bat speed. Dahain Santo also looks like he could be a sleeper in this class.

Anthony Alford is seemingly missing from the 2020 Steamer Projections -- but that's because the data is sorted by WAR and he's the only one with a negative value... he's #94 on the list: .225/.290/.349... and a minus defender.

The Steamer pitcher projections are pretty negative, and frankly don't inspire much confidence about their accuracy.  ERA: Nate Pearson 4.98; Jake Fishman 4.54, Julian Merryweather 4.32.  Don't think so.    I'll wait for the ZiPS.

What pitcher in the majors would represent the upside of SWR? The best comparisons I could find is somewhere between Sonny Gray and Aron Nola.

Shoeless - SWR is already touching high 90s and is bigger, stronger, and more athletic at 18 than guys like Nola or Gray ever were.

I won't post the BA comments, but the International signees named by BA are:

Estivan Machado
Reikelvin de Castro
Victor Mesia
Christian Feliz
Dahian Santos
Peniel Brito
Robert Robertis

In addition to those who made the list, Ben Badler had nice things to say about Sem Robberse (signed out of the Netherlands) in his Jays top 10 chat back in November.

On comps to SWR, Gooden really fits only in terms of age-versus-level. Gooden's strikeout rate was more than double league average when he broke in (and even higher as an 18-year old in A ball), and he didn't have particularly good control until he settled in at the major league level. His stuff as a young pitcher was otherworldly - and he was a lefty.

A better analogue recently might be Julio Urias, who, although a lefty, also had good, but not amazing stuff, advanced pitchability and extremely good command, and who rocketed through the minors as a teenager even faster than SWR (Urias spent most of his age-18 year in AA, SWR in low A). Urias has had trouble staying on the field, which hopefully SWR can avoid.

Aaron Nola, as suggested, is another good comp: solid stuff, advanced control. Nola was a college guy who moved quickly, so the age comp doesn't work, and Nola lacks a slider, while SWR for the time being seems to be a 4-pitch guy.

For fun, here's a 1982 scouting report on Dwight Gooden.  Youneverknow.  SWR turned 19 in September.  It's unlikely that he'll reach the majors much before his 20th birthday even if everything goes impossibly well.  But maybe, he'll be throwing consistently 98 with control and good off-speed stuff.  You don't want to put an upside on a player who has dominated in full-season ball at age 18. 

Perhaps more Jose Berrios pitch arsenal with more of a Taijuan Walker build.

Ugly, do you have a source for this? I've only seen SWR cited at low-to-mid 90s, with different views on whether he's likely to add more velocity.

Hopefully this doesn't completely disqualify me. No idea why I remembered Gooden as a left-hander. In my defence, I was very young during his heyday.

I like both prospects the Jays received in the Stroman deal and am probably higher on Kay than most - SWR is a very good prospect but a word of caution, most evaluations mention that there is not much projection left in SWR even though he is so young and it's why he's not rated higher on most list.

Speaking with a very high level of optimism: Not just me but others are saying Pearson and SWR (Gooden) are "potential" Ace quality.

Nice to dream of Aces and #1s. Bob MacGowan was having a conversation with Buck Martinez in the Richardi era. The rotation was Halladay, Burnette, someone, another guy maybe Litsch and Litsch. So Litsch was either our #4 or 5. MacGowan says Litch could win 10 games. it was ST. Buck was taken aback and said if your 4th or 5 SP can win 10 games then YOU ARE GOING TO THE PLAYOFFS.

I always liked Buck's analysis of the game. Being the catcher for KC he knew something about a strong rotation.

Also like Atkins "throw a lot at the wall and see what sticks" approach. I think he will throw some good stuff this year.

Also like Shapiro "some very good pitchers come from lower round draft picks". Kluber 4th round and deGrom 10th round. Many more Severino $200,000 signing bonus.

Stieb was my favorite pitcher. Key, Halladay, Wells, Hentgen, Guzman and many more. Too bad I never got to see much of Chris Carpenter.

Gabriel:

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/prospect-deep-dive-simeon-woods-richardson-who-could-be-best-pitcher-in-mets-minors/306777100

"fastball that will sit in the 91-94 mph range, touching 96 or 97. At one time last season he was clocked at 99 mph."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.amazinavenue.com/platform/amp/2019/1/18/18181352/top-25-mets-prospects-for-2019-12-rhp-simeon-woods-richardson

"At the time he was drafted, there was some confusion as to how much velocity his four-seam fastball had. Woods-Richardson himself claimed he could hit 97 MPH, scouting services vouched as high as 95 MPH, and other scouts and evaluators were claiming the pitch was backing up into the high-80s-to-low-90s during the spring. The right-hander has since put any doubts to rest with his performance in the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues, regularly touching the upper-90s. In addition, he also throws a two-seam fastball in the high-80s that features tailing action with generous sink. In addition to the fastballs, he regularly throws a curveball, slider, and changeup, an arsenal that would be large for any pitcher, let alone a 17-year-old"

85bluejay, that is a very intelligent comment. The expert evaluators opinions are as accurate as ours.

CHEERS my friend to you and the other Bauxites!!!

"most evaluations mention that there is not much projection left in SWR even though he is so young and it's why he's not rated higher on most list."

Which is crazy, of course, because he may have improved his stuff and stock over the last two years more than any prospect in baseball. He's grown about a foot and 100lbs since he first started pitching in high school m. He's tall, he's fit, he's athletic, he's very young.....there's just no reason to say he lacks projection.

Sorry UO but I am not convinced about SWR.

YOU came right out and claimed Jansen and Rowdy as "your boys". They proved you correct. I don't recall you giving SWR that seal of approval. Not yet anyway.

CHEERS!!!

The Steamer pitcher projections are pretty negative, and frankly don't inspire much confidence about their accuracy.

Agreed Mike. My own projections are very close to Steamer when extrapolated out to total runs scored (777 vs 788) but I'm over 100 runs more optimistic on runs allowed. Feels like Steamer is building in a projection for the the baseball to continue getting ever more supercharged. Hope they're wrong about that.

The pitcher ERAs I am most confident Steamer is too pessimistic about:
Hyun-Jin Ryu 4.26
Ace Chanderson 5.47
Ken Giles 3.56
Nate Pearson 4.98
Anthony Kay 5.42

I rank Simeon Woods Richardson ahead of Groshans, which as I understand it is what the cool kids are doing. But I don't think there's any chance of him playing in the majors this year. I think a fabulously successful 2020 for him will look a lot like Nate Pearson's 2019 - 6 starts in Dunedin, 16 in New Hampshire, 3 in Buffalo. But let's suppose he performs even better than that and forces his way up to Buffalo by the end of July - if he's that great, the Jays will go in to service-time-games mode and not call him up to Toronto until late April of 2021.

Still, what kind of math can predict that Eovaldi will have a better ERA than Ryu?

Spending by team is interesting.

NL teams that have spent the least this winter:

Rockies (rebuilding)
Pirates (rebuilding)
Cubs (just a long shot contender this year)
Cards (Quite surprising actually, they didn't even spend the Ozuna QO money.)
Dodgers (They didn't need to spend)
Giants (rebuilding, but still putting players on the field)
Marlins (rebuilding but getting guys to trade later. They don't really seem close to compete.)
Mets (Competing, but not willing to spend more)
Padres (Trying to compete, but they've already hurt themselves enough with big contracts.)
Brewers (Wild card contender, but hedging their bets kinda like the 2017 Jays.)
Diamondbacks (Spent more than twice what the Brewers did.)
Braves (Spend enough)
Phillies (Spend plenty)
Reds (Really going for it now, but still a long shot.)
Nationals (They lost so many free agents...)

If the Pirates are in rebuild mode, any interest in Josh Bell?

This would allow Shaw to play super utility role, and possibly get another veteran bat in the lineup.

On the other hand, Bell had a ridiculous May and other than that was just fine.

Good comment Mike Green about SWR, Saberhagen and contending in July lets say.

So our window would be open for the reasons you mentioned.

Interest in the Jays will be sky high and therefore revenue. Everyone is happy and relieved.

Atkins on Tim and Sid said that the FA signings are pretty much over for this season. He looked very relaxed. Only Castellanos was left. Trades will happen in the league. He was directly asked about the OF. He mentioned Gurriel and Grichuk as being expected to be good and even improve. He said that he did not want T Hernandez to lose any ABs. Play OF not much DH. Nothing said about the other OFs or additions or Biggio in the OF.

In another interview he said that the farm is full of prospects because none have been traded. Trading prospects is a present/future strategy for improvement. He gave no details. Which is good.

Yeah i love the kid but SWR being in the bigs this year would seem unnecessary even if he crushes it.

You should have 8 SPs as depth.

For 2021 Ryu would be a lock. The other 7 would have to earn their spot. At the moment Thornton has the best opportunity to earn a spot ( most likely 5th) because has 2 years of results potentially.

At some point prospects Pearson, Kay and Zeuch are probably up in 2020. SRF could get a promotion. He threw 1695 juiced ball pitches in AAA last year. The hits and Ks were good numbers. The bb were horrible. Within 5-7 AAA starts in 2020 we should know how much progress he has made. All the prospects will have to pass the AAA juiced ball test.

The kids will have to be evaluated against the veterans like Shoemaker, Anderson and Roark. Some answers could be available by July. Definitely by the end of the season.

If the kids are not ready more veterans will be signed for 2021.

I agree that the Steamer ERA pitching projections are way too high. Another one is Shoemaker. They have him at about 1.25 runs a game over his career average, and more than 3 times his ERA in his short stint with the Jays last year. B-Ref has him close to a run a game lower than Steamer. Borucki and Thornton also seem too high.

The invisible 6'6" 260 pound gorilla in the room.

Last years 11th overall pick, the first pitcher selected, was Alek Manoah. Presently as high as #3 in our prospects list.

Now 22 he throws "...a 94-97 mph fastball and...with 3 pitches, power stuff and natural strike throwing ability...has all the ingredients... to become an impactful starter."

All these kid pitchers are exciting - so exciting - Alek, like an ugly date, sits waiting for an invitation to the Top Blue Jays Pitcher's Ball.

Perhaps, when he gets there, someone should invite him to dance. Just sayin'...

Manoh healthy could master both Dunedin and NH.

"If the Pirates are in rebuild mode, any interest in Josh Bell?"

I would hope so, for the right price. Bell is a solid player.

Agreed rpriske about Bell. He was good in 2019.

J Bell 2019 37 Hr .367 OBP. 2017 26 Hr .334 OBP.

J Smoak 2017 38 Hr .355 OBP. Not as good in 2018 & 19 but still pretty good.

T Shaw 2018 32 Hr .345 OBP. Also as good in 2017.

None were able to cash in financially due to Arb and Smoak's 3 year deal.

I am not disagreeing. But I feel that it is deeper than 2+2=4. It is more like X+Y=? X may be the record and Y the risk factor. There are also other variables. Like what is the current state of your window.

For me I find enjoyment and a challenge thinking about off the field factors as well.