I really want NYY to be knocked out in the 1st round. Would make my season.
Drury will play shortstop. I'm hopeful that he goes 0-for with a couple of plays not made.
BillyMack gets another start. I suppose hitting a couple of homeruns will keep you in the lineup.
This isn't Yankees stadium, though.
Grichuk will DH and Davis will captain the otherwise porous outfield.
That already happened in the last series. He was hoping to catch "Come from Away" and "The Lion King", but didn't make either one.
Clay Buchholz is here to help.
Ned Yost has made it official, and I was actually a little surprised to discover he's the all-time winningest Royals manager. He did win a World Series but he's almost 100 games below .500. Well, if they let you stick around for ten years anyway, I guess you can win 744 games.
Naturally I had to check out the leaders for each team and I was shocked to discover that no Cleveland manager, in 120 years, has even come close to matching Yost's total in KC.
Meanwhile the Yankees have four men who've managed the Bombers to more than 1,000 wins.
Sparky Anderson is the only man who is the leader for two teams...
Four men have managed more than 2,000 wins for one team: Connie Mack, John McGraw, Walter Alston, Bobby Cox.
Twenty-two other men have managed more than 1,000 wins for one team. But no one has managed 1,000 wins for two teams. Bruce Bochy comes the closest. He had 1,050 wins with the Giants, behind McGraw. And his 951 wins is the San Diego record.
Tony LaRussa is the all-time Cardinals leader (1,408) and the all-time Oakland leader (798) although that remains the Connie Mack franchise...
Bucky Harris (1,336) leads the Senators/Twins franchise. Since moving to Minnesota, it's Tom Kelly (1,140). Ron Gardenhire also cleared 1,000 wins.
The Cubs leader is Cap Anson (1,282), whose work was all done in the 19th century. If it's not him, it's Charlie Grimm.
Aside from Connie Mack, the AL manager with the most wins with one team is... Mike Scioscia (1,650).
I'm amazed that the name Al Lopez, who managed a long time and never did anything but win (his worst team, in 15 full seasons, played .525 ball), shows up ... nowhere.
What does this kid have to do to earn some regular reps ahead of one of the Jays sub-300 OBP outfielders?
For me it's not so much expecting anything from Alford, it's that as a CF, he's the only fringe MLB lottery ticket on the current roster that has any chance of sticking there.
Get ready to be disappointed. Presumably, if the Jays intended to do that, Alford would have started more than once in September.
Conversely, neither Fisher nor McKinney has shown in their MLB sample that they should be immune to competition. AAA stats are fine and odds are the relative success players achieve prior to the bigs will translate correspondingly, but not always. Factor in Alford's defense and an audition should be a no brainer.
Nobody is saying to "hand him a spot", but maybe give him a run of 150-200 ABs. Fisher has been trash in his 360 ABs and McKinney not much better in his 357.
The only people who will remember this are the ones who will be upset when Alford is let go.
In the meanwhile, Jays are 1 game behind the Pirates and 2 behind Seattle.
We were interested in Stroman but we didn't think he would be a difference-maker. We felt he would be in our bullpen in the postseason.
Also said the Jays were insisting on Clint Frazier.
Dodged a bullet there.
Mookie Betts too.
2/3 of the starting lineup is set. It's mostly about pitching now.
I would be pretty disappointed if they DID.
If they didn't try to acquire a CF (or RF with Grichuk sliding over) at all this winter because they wanted to hand the spot to Alford, then I would agree. But if the assumption is they are sticking with what they have, and Alford isn't playing because they want to shoehorn Hernandez in CF or Fisher in RF, etc, etc, then yes I would be disappointed.
Like I said, I'm not convinced Alford can hit MLB pitching enough to be a regular, but it seems equally as likely (if not more) that Hernandez and McKinney are not going to hit enough to compensate for their lack of defensive value, and Fisher has looked awful so far despite interesting tools. There is no right answer internally, but if nothing changes in the OF situation, then stick Alford there and hope he turns into something resembling Kevin Pillar.
Trading Sogard and the DFA of Galvis was ok because of the addition and success of Biggio and Bichette.
This is part of the rebuilding strategy which results in a weaker ML team after the trade deadline.
The off season as always will prioritize improving the overall organizations pitching. I believe Atkins deals with everything so he probably deals with the CF issue as well.
I don't expect any "good" additions from outside the organization this off season. But often I am wrong. I expect waiver additions and mediocre FA signings. I am looking forward to this because I find this desperate searching interesting. I also expect a few players with questionable value to be added from teams that have surpluses and want to clear 40 man space and not pay their salary. Grichuk, Solarte, Thornton, Richard and A Diaz are good examples to me. Pitchers coming off injuries like Phelps and prospects like Merryweather should be easy to acquire.
What happens with Giles will be interesting.
That is where I will e disappointed.
I see four priorities for the off-season for the Blue Jays:
1. Get a solid starting pitcher.
2. Get another one.
3. Centre field
4. First base.
Alford is not the answer in CF... but neither is anyone else they currently have.
Did he have injury issues or something recently? I keep thinking he did. That would explain a lot. His peak is 112 minor league games in a season (2018) and just 80 this year. If healthy he might still become a solid player. Remember, his first few years he was still playing football thus hasn't had as much baseball training as most do at his age. I see tons of potential there still. Speed, power, defense, appears to be a strong teammate given how everyone they interviewed said they were excited for him.
Right now for CF we have a choice of Davis (entering age 28 season), McKinney (meh), Hernandez (oh god no on defense, unlikely to improve at this stage with his league average bat), Fisher (75 OPS+ over 408 ML PA but 900 OPS in AAA).
If I ran the Jays (be afraid) I'd probably go with Alford in CF with Davis in AAA/5th OF, Fisher as DH/backup corners, and find new homes for Hernandez and McKinney if I couldn't send them to AAA. Guys like Forest Wall, and Josh Palacios are close to the majors and probably wouldn't be any worse than the gang we are debating. Griffin Conine I'd push to AA by mid-season if he handles Dunedin in the first half with plans to bring him up in 2021 if he keeps it up (sadly not a CF). Justin Ammons tore it apart his first year but in rookie ball so he is a long way from reaching. Sigh. CF is a mess either defensively or offensively unless Alford can put it all together.
Trade Teoscar for "whateveryoucanget"
McKinney has an option left. Use it.
That leaves Gurriel, Grichuk, Fisher, Alford, Davis.
2020 should be the final year of more or less planned non-contention. Last chance to toss stuff against the wall to see what sticks.
I’d certainly be disappointed if they dropped Alford without another viable CF coming on board. If nothing else, he can be a late in the game defensive replacement or pinch runner, especially with the expanded roster.
McKinney on the other hand, at current course and speed, has virtually no value in the sea of mediocre Jays outfielders. So if they keep him over AA, I’ll be really disappointed.
Teoscar is almost the worst CF in the league defensively. He's been OK in LF this year, but that's Gurriel's everyday position. So for a team with a need in LF, Teoscar would have a bit of value.
Davis has almost no trade value, but we're talking 5th outfielder/pinch runner. Alford is potentially the best of the 3, even if he isn't yet. I'd hold onto him for a least one season.
Happ and Estrada I suppose were fantastic. Shoemaker if he could have stayed healthy and performed like he did before his injury.
J Garcia, Richard, F Liriano and Buchholz all came up short but were either cheap of not too expensive.
So if lucky we could get 2 solid starting pitchers. That would be better than great.
The team will never build into a contender without a makeover of the rotation.
Maybe you think by 'solid' I am saying Gerrit Cole, or something.
No, two pitchers who would slot in as 3 or 4 in an actually decent rotation. That would currently make them top of the rotation in Toronto, because this is a team with only #4 and worse starters.
As for Teoscar, I would also keep him over Alford or Davis... but preferably to be the DH.
Elite : G Cole #1.
Also elite but not as good as Cole : 2016 Happ 3.18 ERA, Sanchez 3.00 ERA. For me they are #1
Good : 2016 Estrada 3.48 ERA and Stroman 4.37 ERA but 204 IP. So solid #2
Solid : 2016 Dickey 4.46 ERA. So 2 like Dickey would be good as # 3/4.
Looking at Estrada in Milwaukee was showing signs of getting better. He did and in the AL East.
Happ did not show that he could be more than a #4 before 2015 with a 4-4.5 ERA. The 11 games in Pittsburgh 1.85 ERA.
R Martin also became our catcher.
So I agree it is possible. But I am not setting myself up for disappointment like the off season when Donaldson was not traded. I don't know why my expectation was that, probably because of all the trade rumors. But It was a very long off season of waiting almost every day for the move that did not come. Too hard on me.
I'm inclined to agree more or less, with a slight caveat for McKinney and Alford - only because they're the youngest of the group and they've both had their development slowed by injuries and stuff. But it's not like they fill me with hope or anything.
He's got 1 option left, so he should be covering in Buffalo next year.
Davis is a legit centre field, but he's hit worse than anybody else, so at that point he's only a defensive replacement.
Everybody still has Alford in the Jays top 30, so he should get a last shot next year.
We're going to a 26 player roster with a limit of 13 pitchers.
I think the IL will grow from 10, because as it is, a pitcher only misses one start.
Not sure what other changes are coming, but there is only 2 years left in the CBA.
So some players might be willing to take a 2 years deals and hope free agency gets better in the new CBA.
I'm not sure that's good for the Jays. They are still not quite there.
The Jays have a large number of pitching prospects who needs to be tested at the MLB levels.
Even if you drop Tim Mayza and Buchholtz, that still leave 23 pitchers.
Adam, Boshers and Stewart released, still leaves you with 20 and not much of a bullpen.
So, I would add one started and one reliever.
For today, let's go with Valera, Alford and Fisher and if we can't lose with that, maybe bring back Maile tomorrow.
To judge his contact quality you can look his XOWBACON which for his career is 0.421 against a league average of 0.371. If you combine the quality with the reason you expect his contact rate to improve you have some potential compared to the other options.
His defence is much maligned with very visible miscues, but 900 innings in the outfield he has a +4 DRS, and a 6.2 UZR/150. He will be absolutely fine in left field long term.
Already Added:
Biggio
Kay
Zeuch
Probably Added:
Thomas Hatch
Santiago Espinal
Probably Not Added:
Forrest Wall
Josh Palacious
Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone, SRF, Shoemaker, Zeuch, Kay, Borucki, Diaz all started at least once this year and the Jays have the rights to them next year (Shoemaker via arbitration). Pearson should be up at some point next year. Plus there are an assortment of others who will get shots I'm sure. I'm sure the Jays will sign someone this winter to eat innings too, just to give the pen a partial rest sometimes.
Of course, it’s far from certain the Jays would have been able to help Urshela break through the way he has with the Yankees.
I agree 92-93 - you couldn’t move Grichuk today without adding a significant asset to do so. He’s a liability as of September 2019.
Kirby Snead
Travis Bergen
Jackson McClelland
Bryan Baker
Zach Jackson
Kevin Vicuna
Josh Palacios
Forrest Wall
Dany Jimenez
Curtis Taylor
No obvious future stars there, but I can definitely see the Jays losing 1 or 2 to the Rule 5 draft.
Nate Pearson
Simeon Woods Richardson
Alek Manoah
Eric Pardinho
Adam Kloffenstein
Anthony Kay
T.J. Zeuch
Kendall Williams
Maximo Castillo
Patrick Murphy
Joey Murray
Yosver Zulueta
Yennsy Diaz
Josh Winckowski
It's really hard to place Luciano as his development path is so different from what we're used to. Is he a better prospect today than he was at the end of 2018? I have no idea. But to place him ahead of anyone on this list (besides maybe Winckowski) you have to assume he's taken a big step forward this season. We'll have a much better idea 2 months in to 2020.
He needs to develop a breaking ball. He has 2 years to do so.
He's probably going to add some velocity.
He has a really nice attitude on the mound. Feels like a nice pick.
Dany Jimenez and Jackson McClelland could be targets because they throw really hard.
On the broadcast last night was this obscure tidbit - Anthony Alford and Jonathan Davis became the first brother-in-laws to ever homer in the the same game when they did it during Monday night's marathon.
Also something I saw recently - from the start of Major League Baseball in the 1900's until the year 2000, there were only 22 teams in total who hit 200 home runs in a season. This year there are 23 teams who have done that and Baltimore should make it 24. So, are the baseballs juiced?
That's a long time ago in prospect years. Unless you are young for the league, in which case you can have some adjustment time, you can't regress for 2 years and maintain prospect status. The biggest issue for Alford is that the underlying numbers are bad. 30% K rate, doesn't hit the ball in the air nearly enough, not unlucky in any way, etc...He's being massively overrated because of his past status (like Pompey or Travis)
I totally despise that kind of thinking. The team is young and has some holes.
They've traded good pieces at the deadline, the immediate effect is negative.
That's normal and healthy.
Teams who have finished with worse seasons and leveraged that recently includes the Astros, Twins, Orioles, Rays, Cubs, Pirates, Royals, Nationals.
The Red Sox and Yankees are the exceptions, not the norm.
Although, keep in mind that the Yankees drafted Derek Jeter 6th overall.
On the draft front, how historic is it?
The Jays could pick 5th, 6th or 7th.
In 2014, they picked 9th (Jeff Hoffman).
in 2013, they picked 10th (Phil Bickford)
in 2010, they picked 10th (Deck McGuire)
In 2005, they picked 5th, (Ricky Romero) <Tulo> So, yeah, not that long ago.
In 1998, they picked 8th (Felipe Lopez)
In 1997, they picked 5th (Vernon Wells)
In 1996, they picked 4th (Billy Koch)
In 1983, they picked 9th (Matt Stark)
in 1982, they picked 2nd (Augie Schmidt)
in 1981, they picked 5th (Matt Williams)
in 1980, they picked 2nd (Garry Harris)
In 1979, they picked 3rd (Jays Schroeder)
In 1978, they picked 2nd (Lloyd Moseby)
I most say the early team wasn't good at drafting.
The 95 teams finished 55-88. That would work out to 63-99.
At any rate, the 2004 team was 67-94 26th overall.
So how don't see how a team that finishes 66-95 25th overall would be any worse.
But he hasn't regressed for 2 years - he regressed, badly, in 2018, then bounced back this year. The bounce-back doesn't look as good as it could given that he was horrifically bad in April and that he missed 6 weeks from end of June due to injury. Those aren't things that can simply be ignored, of course (especially since he has a fairly extensive injury history), but looking at his AAA numbers after April is where you see some hope - .299/.383/.458 in 243 PA, 18/24 stealing bases and a slightly better K rate of 26%.
As for "massively overrated" - how highly do you think he's rated? Most prospect lists have him around #20 in the Jays system.
Atkins and Shapiro will be receiving a grade I presume. Our comments are probably going to be very interesting. To me Atkins employed a good strategy of picking up everything he could starting at the 2018 July trade deadline. Most of what he picked up will not work out for the Jays. We just mentioned Urshela and Hendriks who blossomed after leaving the Jays.
Continuing on with reasonable to dirt cheap pickups (some not ours) that vastly over performed. J Musgrove and J Lyles in Milwaukee are solid #4 pitchers IMO. Neither is old. I really liked the strategy of getting 2 solid SPs and agreed with it. Or a combo of SP/setup. Atkins has a huge stock of pitchers that are unproven and he is always adding. He also has many non elite pitching prospects in AAA and AA. He is playing a numbers game.
S Brito hurt the Jays and the advisers who suggested him by playing the way he did on the ML team. But his AAA numbers are quite good and he is probably being taught to make improvements to his defensive and offensive game so that he can tap into his natural talent. So he has a chance rather than no chance.
We have seen failings at the ML level going down to figure something out. 5 examples this year?
Nate Pearson
Simeon Woods Richardson
Alek Manoah
Eric Pardinho
Adam Kloffenstein
Anthony Kay
T.J. Zeuch
Kendall Williams
Maximo Castillo
Patrick Murphy
Joey Murray
Yosver Zulueta
Yennsy Diaz
Josh Winckowski
Much like Urshela, and unlike Hendriks or Yan Gomes, no one here complained about losing Drake. But Drake and the Rays made a few changes, and now he's one of the better bullpen pieces on their team.
One could criticize the FO whiffing on Drake as they did with Urshela (though obviously to a much lesser degree). But maybe the FO did their job in recognizing the raw talent, but the coaching staff wasn't able to unlock that talent.
The Dodgers and Yankees are usually thought of as big spenders, but they've also gotten big boost from their coaching staffs' ability to unlock the potential of guys like Muncy, Chris Taylor, Urshela and Tauchman.
The only years the Jays have been younger for average age for hitters was 1980 and 1981 (25.8 both years). Next is 1982 at 26.5. 1983 was the start of 11 years over 500 with multiple division titles and 2 WS wins at the end.
For pitchers 2012, 1987, and 1984 tie this year, with 1986 just barely younger. The youngest years were sub 26 (1979, 1982, 1977, 1981, 1978 - boy they did go young in the early years eh?).
So pitching is a bit old for a rebuild (30+ crew of Richard, Jackson, Buchholz, Guerra, Feierabend, Hudson, Shoemaker, Phelps, Tepera, Boshers, Rosscup, and Ramirez explains it). The older guys are mostly gone after this season (Shoemaker, Tepera, Boshers might be back). Sub 25's like SRF, Diaz, Kay, Zeuch should all get chances in 2020, while Luciano the 19 year old gets AA time next year and maybe a call up at some point if he earns it. The 25 and up crew (Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone, Romano, Shafer, etc.) will mostly be filler until better kids come up. Lets hope the Jays find a few better ones.
So I expect history to repeat. We will once again develop #1s like we always have.
The eye test may be worse, and Teoscar doesn't add value on defence, but the numbers do not support the degree of condemnation he is receiving here.
"The top three priorities should be adding a couple proven arms to the rotation, finding a long-term centre-fielder and plugging the hole at first base."
Just on a lark - give Cole $30M, Keuchel $20-25M, resign Giles for $10-15M.
Give Rendon $30M, move Vladdy to DH/1st, platoon with Tellez and Teoscar for DH/1st.
Give Castellanos $20M in right, Grichuk in center, Gurriel in left.
That gives us a starting 9 of:Bo BichetteCavan BiggioRendonVladCastellanosGurriel
Tellez/HernandezGrichuk
Jansen / McGuire
Rotation:ColeKeuchelShoemaker
ThorntonZeuch/Kay
Total payroll around $170-180M. Is this a 95+ win team?
That gives us a starting 9 of:Bo BichetteCavan BiggioRendonVladCastellanosGurriel
Tellez/HernandezGrichuk
Jansen / McGuire
Rotation:ColeKeuchelShoemaker
ThorntonZeuch/Kay
Total payroll around $170-180M. Is this a 95+ win team?
When in doubt, go with spin rate.
That vision of a possible 2020 team is interesting as an intellectual exercise, I guess. Certainly Pearson should be in there, and if he's healthy, I would say Borucki has a good shot as well.
I absolutely wouldn't sign Keuchel. He'll be 32 in a few months, and isn't nearly as good a pitcher as his reputation. The ballpark in Houston has really helped him, and when you look at his career road numbers, you get a clearer picture of who he is. Career road ERA of 4.31, WHIP of 1.37, despite playing a lot of games in Seattle, Anaheim and Oakland, all good pitchers' parks. He doesn't strike out a lot of guys. This year, he had an ERA of 3.59, but an FIP of 4.49, and again, his road numbers are not good, with an ERA of 4.76 and WHIP of 1.57. If somebody signs him to a big money deal this offseason, they're going to regret it.
Atkins and Montoyo, I'm not all that interested in the team president's job.
You're making the most negative choices at every point to get to this conclusion:
1. Minimizing or excluding probability-based systems (DRA and FRAA)
2. Underweighting the system with the best data: OOA.
3. Giving no apparent weight to his improvement in 2019.
The main objection here is that you're preferring DRS and UZR, two video and zone-based metrics, to OOA, which is a more precise measure of the same thing DRS and UZR are trying to get to. Unless you're a real Statcast sceptic, there's just no reason to think its range numbers are inferior to UZR & DRS range numbers. But you're giving the UZR/DRS methodology twice the emphasis even before you throw out OOA.
There's not a lot of Latinos in that pen.
Dull was claimed, DFAed and outrighted to Buffalo last week.
To make room for him, Gurriel goes on the 60 DL.
This means that Dull will become a free agent once they're done with him.
Beau Taylor is back on assignement too.
They could release Dull and claim him back if they want.
What else is there?
The Jays should not sign a free agent who would cost them a pick.
Yeah, it's only the second rounder, but it's actually a pretty high pick still.
When they signed Estrada and Happ, it's not so much that they wanted to split the risk.
They needed 2 or 3 pitchers. This time around they will have a lot of depth in Buffalo.
The money is not too important, but they will not sign a pitcher for 7 years or more.
I'd imagine 2 or 3 years with club options.
So, the Jays haven't developed pitchers lately?
Harris, SRF, Conner Greene, Hollon, Justin Maese, Matt Smoral, Tom Robson, Juan Meza, Jose Espada, Evan Smith, Angel Perdomo, Travis Bergen, Shane Dawson, Francisco Rios, Patrick Murphy, Zach Jackson, Chad Girodo,
That's about it, right? Maybe a lack of success with the international free agents. Not that they signed may of the top arms.
How about a fastball exactly where he likes them?
So the ball is juiced. Therefore more Hrs from T Hernandez and B McKinney. McKinney has taken advantage lately. The others will also take advantage. For example J Davis if given enough playing time will hit 10 Hr instead of 4.
But then the opposition is also hitting a lot of "hard hit Balls". So now it is harder to catch these fly balls I assume. J Davis has the skills. He caught a tough one against NYY B Gardner and a very hard out in Zeuch's No Hitter. I really think Atkins and the staff have to figure out this "balance". Montoyo does bring Davis in late in the game to help preserve a lead.
This year, the team did not improve at the at the deadline because they traded lots of assets away.
They shouldn't have guys to trade next year. They should have young guys at every positions and they should pick up guys to replace the ones who are not working out.
The objective this year was not to play for .500.
They traded their catcher over the winter.
They traded their DH in spring training.
They traded their center field in the first week of the season.
They traded their best 2 starting pitchers at the deadline.
They traded their best position player in Sogard.
They would have traded their best reliever had he been healthy.
They traded their next best 3 relievers in Hudson, Phelps and Biagini.
They released Galvis. They kept Drury and Maile.
This is not trying to win games.
There is something like 219 players with 400 ABs and out of that Drury is dead last in OBP.
Maile has an OPS of .428.
What they have done is establish the next core and solidify 6 position players.
They have players who can compete for the other 3 spots.
Starling Marte is probably available in trade, but I don't think they'll trade prospects for a guy with 2 years of control left.
There are a couple of Japanese outfields who could be posted but usually these guys prefer the west coast and Rogers is not likely to want to throw that kind of money around.
So, now they will keep building pitching until it becomes a strength, but not by signing long term contracts.
I'd like to see the Jays look into adding a couple of good/established arms in free agency, but I don't think the FO will do it a season after ending up bottom 5 in baseball.
Would you rather have... (OPS+ for this year in all cases)
CA: Russell Martin (77 OPS+) or Danny Jansen (69 OPS+)?
1B: Smoak both years.
2B: Travis (DL) or Biggio (113)
SS: Aledmys Diaz (110 OPS+ mostly playing 1B) or Bo Bichette (143)?
3B: Yangervis Solarte (49 OPS+ released in July) or Vlad (108 OPS+)
LF: Hernandez (94) vs Gurriel (127)
CF: Pillar (87 - dead on his career average) vs Hernandez (94)
RF: Grichuk both years
DH: Kendrys Morales (57 OPS+) vs Tellez (91 before tonight)
Note: 3B also has to factor in Donaldson who had a 126 OPS+ this year for $23 million (5.9 WAR). Would've been nice but Vlad clearly was ready to take over even if Donaldson outperformed him this year.
Only outhit by the old guys at CA and not by a ton (factor in the mix as Jansen/McGuire vs Martin/Maile and it is a blowout I suspect).
No question the Jays did the right thing for the lineup by cleaning house and probably should've dumped Smoak as well.
Pitching last year (rotation) was... (10+ starts ERA+ in 2019)
Estrada (63), Gavillo (still here), Happ (89), Sanchez (98 for Houston), Stroman (106 for Mets), Borucki (still here), Garcia (retired). None outside of Stroman I'd still want here. Happ is decent but nothing 'wow' for $17 mil this year and next and might not make their playoff rotation.
Yeah, the Jays could've blown a fortune keeping guys but boy it wouldn't have worked well.
Kind of humourous in a way, but also kind of alarming that the team has continued to play Drury so much. It points out something that bothers me about the current front office. I have liked most of what they have done, but they seem to have a very difficult time changing their mind about a player who is demonstrating quite emphatically that they are wrong. Take Fisher as another example. What I heard Atkins say after the trade was that they have been after him for years. Well, 2 or 3 years ago he looked like a pretty good prospect, but then he really stumbled, but the Jays didn't change their minds about him, and still regarded him very highly. Maybe he's the one who gets a ton of AB's next year even though he's playing poorly - or maybe it's Drury yet again. There are times to stick with a player, such as a guy with a demonstrated level of success who has been battling some injury trouble, but there are also times when you have to admit you have misjudged somebody, and these guys seem VERY slow to clue in.
You can't build a house in a day or even a week, but at least the foundation has been poured.
The position players are mostly established, so that raises the baseline by a few WAR.
By bWAR the Jays had about 12 WAR total outside of pitching, but that's also more or less what the 6 established position produced in limited ABs from Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio and Gurriel. Just not having Brito, Hansen and Maile gives you about 3 WAR. So even without looking at the pitching, the team should win more next year.
There is only one valuable pitcher who could be traded, Giles. I sure hope they keep him. He's been good for almost 3 WAR.
There is only one valuable pitcher gone from the rotation, Stroman.
They need to bring one guy who is a definitive plus. Not a Buchholt/Richard type who produced negative WAR.
They have only one top prospect, Pearson, scheduled to debut next year.
But Borucki could bounce back. Shoemaker was amazing when healthy.
The key to being over .500 is probably having a lock down bullpen with shutdown guys covering the 7/8/9 innings and always at least one long relief guy available every day.
They might debut some guys in that role, guys like Murphy, Merryweather, Diaz, Perez, Johnston, Hatch.
For the top innings, Giles is great. Axford will probably try to come back.
Font is interesting. Law is puzzling. He's much better when he walks more and challenges hitter less.
Edwin Jackson : -1.5 (thank god he is gone - now with Tigers, has 8 starts for them and still sucks)
Brock Steward : -0.6
Clay Buchholz : -0.5 (free agent)
Ryan Borucki : -0.4 (DL issues)
Thomas Pannone : -0.4
Aaron Sanchez : -0.3 (long gone)
Jordan Romano : -0.3
Ryan Feierabend : -0.2
Zac Rosscup : -0.2 (in just 1 inning)
317 2/3 IP and -4.4 wins among them. Pannone, Romano, and Stewart are guys who might be here next year still for some reason as will Borucki (given his issues were probably due to his injuries I'll give him a break). So 4 more wins to regain just by not giving those guys time on the mound. Sadly we all know Pannone will get more chances.
FYI: 3 more were -0.1 (Richard, Urena, Diaz).
65 IP, 21 HR. Now that is impressive. That's the kind of pitching you see at the HR derby.
The core-3 show OBP skills. The rest of the team, particularly the trade acquisitions, are low OBP chunks of coal from which the organization is presumably hoping will see emerge a diamond or two. Watching coal predictably stay coal is frustrating to watch. Drury is the coalest of the coals.
What is the team's offensive profile? They are 5th in HR and 5th in K. The payoff for this strategy? They are 11th in scoring.
They are 15th in AVG, 14th in OBP and 10th in SLG. They are 11th in walks, 11th in doubles, and 12th in triples.
They do one thing well. They hit HR. But that isn't enough. Many have discussed shooting a gaggle of floundering Jays into the sun. Drury needs to be at the front of the line. Jury, the evidence is in.
I think the Grichuk extension was designed to try to lock in a (hopefully) core piece at a reasonable rate, with the assumption he'd be able to turn out 2 WAR seasons in RF (with some CF sprinkled in) for the duration of the contract). Considering the 2015-2018 numbers, that wasn't a particularly egregious bet. 2019 has been rough (a little unlucky BABIP wise, especially since part of the reason his numbers are down is because he's hit more ground balls, which should have increased the BABIP), but I think there's a decent chance he'll get back to being a 2 WAR player next year. The strikeout rate has decreased since he broke into the league, so hopefully that continues to stabilize.
Bottom line if Grichuk is your 3rd best OF, I think you are okay. But they definitely need Gurriel to continue locking down LF, and they need a legitimate CF option (or you have to move Grichuk to CF and get an elite RF).
It does seem to me that they need to decide what they are going to do with the McKinney/Fisher/Teoscar/Alford group. I think at best you can only roster one of those guys on a contending team, barring significant improvement from a couple of them.
I think it's time to pay the price for a good solid CF and be done with the experimenting. Keep one or two of the long shots for the soon to be larger bench- I'd keep Fisher and Alford- and get on with it.
I am 80% sure that another OF will be picked up off the DFA.
We can also get out of options and surplus good/promising depth pieces. I hope we can grab something off TB.
I think if the Jays give it another year and a strong year for Jansen, you trade him for a young CF and go with a Kirk/McGuire pairing behind the plate. I would also look at A ball center field prospects like Brennan Davis, Kristian Robinson, Alek Thomas, etc in the mean-time in potential Giles trades.
Frankly, I think there are too many weaknesses to plug via free agency to get to a credible contender next year. The further down the path we go in terms of attempting to contend via free agency, the harder it will be to give opportunities to existing talent, undermining the rebuild.
Alford and Fisher are out of options next year. You have to roster both or lose them. Signing a new centre fielder functionally means cutting one of them loose, and I kind of doubt that happening. Nor should it - these are still two guys with plenty of skills and upside.
Upgrading the rotation would have more of an impact and would be less likely to erode our rebuilding effort. Similarly, a 1B would address a position of need without interfering in developing talent.
w- 5
L-5
ERA- 4.38
WHIP - 1.3
Is this good enough for a 5th starter. On most teams it would be, don't u think? Without looking it up, who is it?
Only if they are claimed on waivers. Otherwise, both could be assigned outright to Buffalo after clearing waivers... and I believe this is what they are planning for Alford (based on him not playing much this month). Strategically, there are two good times to waive a player: late November (prior to Rule V draft roster lockdown) and end of spring training. My guess is that Alford is waived in November but that Fisher stays on the roster until at least spring training.
Yes to the rotation. We're not signing a QO guy, but there will be decent options beyond those guys.
For CF, use internal options next year and if the club looks ready to contend in 2021, then make the call. Same with 1B, which should be close to the least of our worries.
One item I don't see mentioned is our bullpen. Outside of Giles, who may very well be traded this offseason, there isn't one guy in the pen who I would consider an asset on a contending team.
As mentioned, I would imagine a rebuilding/tanking team would claim Alford if he were taken off the 40 man in November (Baltimore, Detroit, KC, etc). He's not that far removed from being a top 50-100 prospect, and bad teams will have patience for a player like that. Fisher likely falls under the same category.
The team can probably keep all the OF's (plus add Wall) if they simply stuck with status quo, meaning Gurriel/Grichuk in the OF, and Fisher/Hernandez/Alford splitting time between the final OF spot, DH, and 4th OF. It really depends on whether Atkins wants to add a OF that might be around for a while from outside the organization, or use 2020 as the last "throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" season.
But we have a few pitchers that can go 2-4 innings. Wagues and Font. Zeuch and Kay have shown glimpses that they can be 6+ inning starters by the end of 2020. Borucki.
At least they will get a chance.
Actually there is a very long line of contenders already in AAA and AA. Some A+ SPs should start the year in AA (Castillo) and a few will get mid year promotions (SWR).
Pearson pitching 2 innings in 2018 and then AFL held him back. If he had 125 IP in 2018 then some AA time would be probable. Which means that 2019 could have been some ML time.
Jays 21st , not good but not quite as bad as many suggesting, particularly if u remove multiple horrible starts from Sanchez
What about all of Stroman's good starts? Keep those in?
Now, since were getting a top pick in the 1st round, we also get a top pick in the 2nd. #5 has ranged between 41 and 48 the past 4 drafts. That #5 in those 4 drafts have yielded the Braves #2 prospect Drew Waters and our ex-Met SWR.
There are already 3 2nd round picks from 2016 making a sizable impact in the majors. Bo, of course, Dan's man Brian Reynolds and soon-to-be NL ROY Pete Alonzo.
We ain't giving up that pick to sign a QO FA this offseason.
1. Christian Walker
2. Keston Hiura
3. Eugneio Suarez
4. Kole Calhoun
5. Roughned Odor
I still like his outcomes going forward.
Walker is 4 years older than Tellez, has kicked around the big leagues since 2014, but received very few AB's, and suddenly burst out with 2.3 WAR this season. Aside from playing 1B, I see no similarity between him and Tellez.
Tellez vs. Hiura
K%: 28.7 vs. 30.4
BB%: 7.3 vs. 7.3
GB%: 39.3 vs. 37.4
FB%: 27.5 vs. 28.3
LD%: 27.1 vs. 28.3
PU%: 6.1 vs. 6.1
LA: 14.0 vs. 15.9
AEV: 90.4 vs. 91.4
Hard%: 40.2 vs. 49.0
Hiura hits the ball harder and is a step ahead, but their discipline and batted ball profiles are almost identical.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cardinals-develop-young-pitchers-the-cubs-dont-which-team-is-going-to-the-playoffs/
This gives you credit for signing and drafting, even if you are traded. But still, the Jays have twice as much drafted pitchers as the typical team.
And while this is players drafted since 2012, much of the value would be players drafted earlier since players drafted in the past couple of years are unlikely to have played in the majors much.
Going by bWAR.
Stroman 14.5
Matthew Boyd 6.9
Kendall Graveman 5.4
Jeff Hoffman -0.9
Justin Shafer 0.5
Stroman couldn't save the Mets.
Hudson has been good with the Nationals.
Phelps has been solid for the Cubs but Kimbrel has been a disaster.
Biagini has imploded in Houston.
Interesting to see that Liriano has been solid in the pen for the Pirates.
I'd trade Giles for a center fielder who gets on bases and play top defense.
I don't see how they trade him if it doesn't make them better.
They can always offer a QO which would probably keep other teams from signing him.
It was time to move on.
It's hard to pass anyone through waivers right now because every team has someone on the 10IL who can be moved to the 60IL for the next 3 days.
The pitching prospects that I was counting on for growth got injured. Zeuch half season and Borucki full season lost to injury. SRF was healthy but had a poor season. I know this is cherry picking but in 7 of his 20 AAA games he threw 100+ pitches. 2 games were 4 IP and 4.2 IP. A few games 70+ pitches in 3 innings or less.For me I conclude that his arm was tired which also explains the loss of velocity.
We currently have a list of about 10 or so young pitchers that could start the year in the ML or AAA. That would include many AA pitchers, Murphy & Diaz that could start in AAA and later may see ML playing time.
These young pitchers will go up and down for improvement purposes. Injuries will always have an effect so depth is important.
Regarding Thornton and Waguespack they both stayed healthy and also exceeded my expectations. I admit to having low expectations for both and they are successes to the "stick to the wall" strategy.
I went back four years and got the following splits for Dyson:
vs RHP .238/.315/.338/.653
vs LHP .259/.335/.310/.645
Nothing much to choose between the two. Interestingly, he has been in the big leagues for part or all of 10 seasons, and has NEVER hit a HR against a lefty, although he has only 444 plate appearances against them.