Thanks as always to the minor league crew for all their fine work this season.

Thanks as always for all the hard work by the Minor League Crew. It is greatly appreciated!

Yes thanks to the Crew, but the hard work is just beginning. :)

Agreed, reading these MLUs is a frequent pleasure, thank you!

Thank you #2JB! Thank you Gerry! Both for your efforts and ability to keep these interesting and informative.

(And yes, Elaine is my punctuation mentor)

Thank you to all of the contributors - it's one of the first things I check every morning in the spring/summer. I appreciate all of the effort(s)!

Thank you everyone who writes the minor league summaries for keeping us so informed on the Jay's prospects.

In the final BA top 100 list Nate Pearson was bumped up to the #7 prospect and Groshans was bumped up to 38. Groshans sits one spot ahead of his prospect rival Nolan Gorman.

As far as the 2019 draft goes 8 of the 10 players picked from Manoah have made the list and Corbin Carroll cracked the list at #100.

Funny thing is that on a pure age v level stats analysis, i'm not sure that Pearson had even a clearcut top 5 year in our system this year. But 6'6" and 102mph goes a long way.

Statistically he was better than Casey Mize who was ranked #8 who also spent the bulk of the year in AA at age 22.

yeah it's damn nice to see jays prospects not mysteriously getting ranked far behind guys they beat in tools and performance on other teams, like has been so common in the past.

though to be fair to Mize he is closer to a year younger than Nate than the same age.

I was looking near the end fo the top 100 where I would have snuck in SWR and the closest comparable I could find was Tristian McKenzie, but he is just ahead of where SWR is.

Just want to express thanks to all the writers on this website for all the hard work they put in.

Also to all who contribute to the site with their comments, I learn a lot about the advance stats stuff.

Final MILB Stats 2019


AAA (age appropriate = 23yrs)

1B Guerrero (20): 34pa, 11.8b%/5.9k%, .320bip/.367avg, .333iso, 187wrc+
DH Tellez (24): 109pa, 12.8b%/22.9k%, .435bip/.366avg, .323iso, 186wrc+
2B Biggio (24): 174pa, 19.5b%/16.1k%, .352bip/.312avg, .203iso, 152wrc+
OF McKinney (24): 154pa, 14.3b%/16.2k%, .307bip/.271avg, .217iso, 122wrc+
IF Espinal (24): 112pa, 6.3b%/20.5k%, .392bip/.317avg, .115iso, 105wrc+
SS Bichette (21): 244pa, 7.8b%/19.7k%, .317bip/.275avg, .198iso, 103wrc+
OF Wall (23): 53pa, 11.3b%/26.4k%, .323bip/.255avg, .191iso, 96wrc+
CF Alford (24): 319pa, 9.7b%/29.5k%, .365bip/.259avg, .152iso, 95wrc+
IF Urena (23): 403pa, 5.7b%/21.1k%, .336bip/.274avg, .119iso, 78wrc+
C McGuire (24): 277pa, 9.0b%/15.9k%, .276bip/.247avg, .119iso, 73wrc+

RH Pearson (22): 18.0ip, 21.7k%/4.3b%, .208bip, 3.00era, 4.06fip, 4.44xfip
RH Zeuch (23): 78.0ip, 11.6k%/9.6b%, .256bip, 3.69era, 5.16fip, 5.37xfip
LH Kay (24): 67.1ip, 21.7k%/11.0b%, .339bip, 4.41era, 5.31fip, 5.60xfip
RH R-Foley (23): 89.0ip, 25.4k%/15.7b%, .293bip, 6.47era, 5.65fip, 5.29xfip

Not a whole lot to say about the hitters at this level in the end. Vladdy and Bo are now both graduated and are quality MLB hitters now. The 24yr olds here had varying success both here and in the bigs, with the three guys with plus performance here - rowdy, biggio, mckinnney - no longer prospects. McGuire didn't do much here but has had a power surge in mlb, and may graduate soon too. Alford and Espinal with middling results, with defense likely determining whether they become useful mlb bench pieces. The age appropriate guys were either uninspiring (Urena) or mediocre in a small sample (Wall), and also probably need defense to determine whether they are useful bench pieces.

AAA pitching stats were crazy this year, so it's hard to tell much here. Pearson was solid though not spectacular after his promotion, but still on track to be an impact MLB SP, and soon. while Zeuch and Kay i think held their own relative to the new league normal this year, holding on to at least a bit of MLB SP potential. SRF was a pretty big disappointment as his control completely abandoned him this year - whether that's the result of him trying a new delivery or not I'm not sure - but its looking more and more like the bullpen for him.


AA (22yrs)

OF Palacios (23): 341pa, 13.2b%/20.5k%, .324bip/.266avg, .150iso, 134wrc+
C Adams (23): 332pa, 9.6b%/31.6k%, .362bip/.258avg, .181iso, 133wrc+
OF Wall (23): 469pa, 10.4b%/23.2k%, .347bip/.270avg, .149iso, 129wrc+
SS Smith (22): 468pa, 6.2b%/32.3k%, .269bip/.209avg, .193iso, 93wrc+

RH Pearson (22): 62.2ip, 28.3k%/8.6b%, .250bip, 2.59era, 2.90fip, 3.12xfip
RH Murray (22): 43.2ip, 28.3k%/9.8b%, .308bip, 3.50era, 3.42fip, 3.24xfip
RH Diaz (22): 144.1ip, 19.1k%/8.7b%, .270bip, 3.74era, 3.93fip, 4.12xfip
RH Logue (23): 101.0ip, 18.6k%/7.5b%, .271bip, 4.10era, 4.61fip, 4.02xfip
RH Perez (23): 121.1ip, 21.5k%/12.3b%, .349bip, 4.60era, 3.96fip, 4.11xfip

The 3 older 23 yr old guys here all hit well enough to keep themselves on the map, though projecting anything more than bench quality from them in MLB is a stretch. Huge dissappointment for Smith this year too, which may or may not be a result of a swing change. He'll need a big bounceback next year to get his future mlb starter status back.

Pearson was very good here at his age appropriate level though a touch shy of dominant. Murray was very solid at his age appropriate level here after dominating as an overager at the lower levels, and remains a darkhorse future SP. Diaz was not quite as good but still solid, but after seeing his heat in the mlb i'm thinking that relief is his ticket to being an above average MLBer. Logue and Perez not very good, and old for the level too.....not looking like legit prospects at this point.


A+ (21yrs)

C Kirk (20): 276pa, 13.8b%/11.2k%, .317bip/.288avg, .159iso, 153wrc+
2B Taylor (20): 384pa, 12.8b%/27.9k%, .292bip/.216avg, .147iso, 107wrc+
OF Young (21): 448pa, 7.8b%/22.8k%, .314bip/.247avg, .107iso, 101wrc+

RH Richardson (18): 28.1ip, 27.1k%/6.5b%, .243bip, 2.54era, 2.46fip, 2.93xfip
RH Castillo (20): 130.1ip, 21.8k%/5.3b%, .290bip, 2.69era, 3.09fip, 3.37xfip
LH Winckowski (21): 53.2ip, 16.3k%/7.5b%, .259bip, 3.19era, 4.20fip, 3.85xfip


A legit stud-level performance by Kirk this year. Elite hitting (topline and underlying numbers) while young for his level, and positive reviews behind the plate too. Taylor for all his contact issues continues to put up above average offensive performances while young for his level, while having defensive upside too. Disappointing year for Young, but he recovered enough to still remain interesting as long as he continues to be a CF.

SWR's performance is just remarkable. 18yr olds just don't do that in A+, or even A. To put it into perspective, the other prospect we have that did something similar at age 18 was....Vladdy. It's a super elite performance and his lack of placement on prospect lists is just silly, imo, especially given that he has legit tools and draft pedigree. He might be our best prospect, and that's with Pearson fully deserving of being a top-10 prospect too. Castillo continues to be very, very, very good, too. Young for his level and just a touch shy of dominant. Winckowski stabilized as decent at his age appropriate level after dominating the lower levels as an overager.


A (20yrs)

OF Conine (21): 348pa, 10.9b%/35.9k%, .405bip/.283avg, .293iso, 169wrc+
3B Groshans (19): 96pa, 13.5b%/21.9k%, .433bip/.337avg, .145iso, 167wrc+
C Moreno (19): 341pa, 6.5b%/11.1k%, .282bip/.280avg, .205iso, 134wrc+
IF Lopez (20): 492pa, 6.9b%/12.8k%, .365bip/.324avg, .101iso, 132wrc+

RH Richardson (18): 78.1ip, 29.9k%/5.2b%, .356bip, 4.25era, 2.53fip, 2.24xfip
RH Pardinho (18): 33.2ip, 22.1k%/9.6b%, .304bip, 2.41era, 3.21fip, 3.65xfip

The most impressive hitting performances here are by the two underagers Groshans and Moreno, who also couple that with legit D at a plus defensive position. Groshans topline numbers are more impressive but Moreno's underlying numbers more solid. Both look great though. Conine with that fascinating line this year - dominant overall but with the K rate and babip flashing alarm signals, and overage to boot - don't know what to think of him yet, tbh. Otto recovered nicely as the year went on and once again ended up with a very, very good overall line. I don't like his complete lack of power this year, though, and can only hope that he's improving with the glove. He's a little less shiny this year for me.

SWR with complete dominance at age 18, with Pardinho a tick behind at just "very very good" even before considering his age.



A- (~20ish yrs)

SS Morris (20): 294pa, 16.7b%/19.0k%, .313bip/.246avg, .100iso, 119wrc+

RH Manoah (21): 17.0ip, 39.7k%/7.3b%, .364bip, 2.65era, 2.48fip, 2.45xfip
RH Gonzalez (19): 62.1ip, 29.4k%/5.0b%, .308bip, 2.45era, 3.14fip, 2.64xfip
LH Kloffenstein (18): 64.1ip, 24.7k%/8.9b%, .262bip, 2.24era, 3.73fip, 3.46xfip
RH Garcia (17): 5.0ip, 20.0k%/10.0b%, .231bip, 1.80era, 5.85fip, 4.32xfip

Solid debut from Morris, but not too inspiring tbh.

Manoah dominant at this level as he should be at this age. New addition Edisson Gonzalez with a legit dominant year while young for the level. This was a great pickup imo. Kloff with a very good year too, while even younger for the level. And super young Garcia had a nice outing here after dominating rookie ball.



Rk+ (19yrs)

SS Hiraldo (18): 256pa, 5.5b%/14.1k%, .328bip/.300avg, .181iso, 126wrc+
SS Jimenez (18): 245pa, 8.6b%/17.1k%, .368bip/.298avg, .079iso, 115wrc+

Two very good years here, with Hiraldo solidly better in topline numbers and more promising underlying numbers due to having legit power. I was hoping for a bit more from Hiraldo but this is still very good for an underage player.


Rk (18yrs)

SS Martinez (17): 163pa, 8.6b%/17.8k%, .296bip/.275avg, .275iso, 150wrc+
OF Brown (17): 63pa, 14.3b%/27.0k%, .357bip/.222avg, .133iso, 148wrc+
2B Rivas (18): 125pa, 8.8b%/19.2k%, .345bip/.284avg, .128iso, 125wrc+
OF Rodriguez (18): 195pa, 9.7b%/16.4k%, .352bip/.301avg, .121iso, 124wrc+
3B Zepeda (18): 98pa, 21.4b%/14.3k%, .259bip/.225avg, .099iso, 124wrc+
OF Solarte (18): 204pa, 12.7b%/20.1k%, .336bip/.275avg, .099iso, 118wrc+

RH Robberse (17): 10.1ip, 21.9k%/0.0b%, .355bip, 0.87era, 2.05fip, 2.62xfip
RH Williams (18): 16.0ip, 30.2k%/11.1b%, .167bip, 1.13era, 2.63fip, 3.32xfip
RH Dominguez (18): 24.0ip, 30.5k%/10.5b%, .218bip, 1.13era, 2.88fip, 2.91xfip
RH Casimiri (17): 14.0ip, 24.1k%/3.7b%, .263bip, 2.57era, 3.01fip, 3.01xfip
RH Garcia (17): 20.0ip, 22.8k%/6.3b%, .231bip, 3.15era, 3.56fip, 3.78xfip


I was keeping the GCL list shorter in previous editions, but I decided to add all the impressive performances here in the final report. Because these are all legit promising lines.

I won't comment on all of them but Orelvis looks pretty spectacular as the youngest and best guy here, and Dasan had a nice debut too. All those 18yr old hitters had legit interesting years too.

Williams had a very nice debut, though maybe walked too many. The other guys all put up lines worth keeping an eye on, too.





Overall, a pretty great year for the system. Even with 3 of the top-5 prospects graduating, and even with many of last year's 2nd tier prospects taking a big step back this year, the system still has a number of elite looking performances as well as a ton of depth.

Age 18

SWR (A+): 28.1ip, 27.1k%, 6.5b%, .243bip, 2.54era, 2.46fip, 2.93xfip
SWR (A): 78.1ip, 29.9k%, 5.2b%, .356bip, 4.25era, 2.53fip, 2.24xfip

Vlad (A+): 209pa, 17.2b%, 13.4k%, .365bip, .333avg, .161iso, 179wrc+
Vlad (A): 318pa, 12.6b%, 10.7k%, .336bip, .316avg, .164iso, 151wrc+


Who was the more impressive 18yr old?

Why do you think SWR does not show up in any of the top 100 prospect ratings? They seem to be losing more relevance each time they come out or are adjusted. SWR looks like a top 20 guy to me.

Thanks for all that work on your prospects UO. It took me a while to figure out that Edisson Gonzalez was part of the TB return.

Looks like all our full season minor league teams will have at least 3 interesting SPs. I am not sure about Lansing. Only E Gonzalez and Kloff probably to start.

Mets farmhands are much more aggressively pushed, like SWR. K Williams, M Dominguez and others probably go to Extended. With no available Extended stats and sss in Lansing 33.2 IP for E Parinho he is not going to impress the prospect evaluators.

The same with Kloff's 64 IP in Vancouver. That is SS ball compared with SWR's 2019 season.

I love your enthusiasm UO. SWR had a great season but if you dig deeper you see that in the 1st half of May he made 4 starts of 2-4 innings each he gave up 5 earned runs in each . At that date May 17 his ERA was 7.24. In addition he threw 80+ pitches in only 3 of his 26 starts. Good to protect his arm. I rank him very highly #3 behind Pearson and Manoah.

He recovered very well to have a fantastic season.

Most of the prospects on the top 100 lists have at least some
experience in AA or dominating the lower minors and have significant pedigree.

Peter, I posted the Q & A from the FG prospect chat last week asking which Jays may be added to their Top 100. Only 2 names were mentioned. SWR 1st and Moreno the other.

lemme check that, mike.

of all the guys with min 5 games started (and without significant relief innings):

1.Pearson (22): 21.0ip, 1.64fip, 1.07xfip
2.SWR (18): 28.1ip, 2.46fip, 2.93xfip
3.Murray (22): 63.0ip, 2.48fip, 2.79xfip
4.Castillo (20): 130.1ip, 3.09fip, 3.37xfip
5.Allgeyer (23): 118.1ip, 3.56fip, 3.48xfip
6.Dillon (25): 67.0ip, 4.22fip, 3.29xfip
7.Winckowski (21): 53.2ip, 4.20fip, 3.85xfip

Of the top-7 guys with 100+ pa:

1.Jansen (22): 139pa, 184wrc+
2.Vladdy (18): 209pa, 179wrc+
3.Panas (24): 459pa, 148wrc+
4.Bichette (19): 182pa, 145wrc+
5.Guillotte (24): 171pa, 125wrc+
6.Pentecost (24): 314pa, 124wrc+
7.Kelly (22): 545pa, 120wrc+

Vladdy's team didn't have an ace 22yr old hitting prospect like Pearson, so I'm not sure that's a super fair comp.

and I think the A-ball portion of the comparison is in SWR's favor even if we do this kind of relative to team analysis (i.e. in A, SWR was way ahead of any of our lansing SP this year, while Vladdy was way behind Bo in lansing, and solidly behind Bradley Jones, too).

McDaniel’s chat today mentions SWR and Manoah as prospects in the 120-140 range.

Bobby Meacham, Mike Mordecai and Vince Horsman have been shown the door according to Shi Davidi.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-part-ways-pair-minor-league-managers/

Just let me add my own thank you to those who put this content together. It's much appreciated.

In addition to Meachem, Mordecai and Horsman, Logan Bone (hitting coach of the Lugnuts) and Mark Worrell (GCL Blue Jays pitching coach) are also on their way out.

The Jays will need at least one new manager in the upper minors, but I also wonder if this means a promotion for Dallas McPherson?

The big surprise for me is Horsman's departure. He has been with the Jays for a long time and many pitchers have made excellent progress under his tutelage.

I wonder if Horsman was slow to adopt some of the more modern methods.

I'll take prospect performance over rotation /pedigree whatever. Not like SWR or Manoah are slouches there

"I'll take prospect performance over rotation /pedigree whatever."

For hitters for sure, for pitchers it's a bit more complicated. Stuff matters a lot. Of 2 pitchers at the same age and level, would you rather someone who threw 87 MPH and good numbers or someone who threw 99 with mediocre numbers? I think every team would take the second guy. The path to success and major league viability is much broader and pitcher success is not necessarily linear.

Great writeup uglyone. I'm guessing you left out Patrick Murphy as there's too much noise in his numbers with his attempt to eliminate the toe tap. Is he still top-20 in your mind?

Some  clubs are known for their pitching philosophies.
Slider/sinker is prized with the Pirates. Baltimore was a no-cutter org.
The Astros and the Yankees have focused on velocity and high rotation.

Prospects like Biggio and Bichette have gone across the entire org.
Shapiro does have the info to make changes at this point.  It's actually expected.
Changes were made in some senior management roles when Shapiro came aboard.
That's expected too. Execs bring their best guys with them.
There have been some bright spots for sure, like developing catchers.
The key with Biggio and Bichette  has been to keep them what they were.
I can also say that the system was failing to develop prospect when Shapiro took over.

We haven't seen the pitching come through yet.
I think, for the most part, you get the pitching that you draft.
However, some things like fastball command and a good change, can be taught.
AA is an important step for pitchers. That's usually when a good heater isn't enough.

It seems everybody got notices and some already have new jobs.
We'll have to see who is filling those jobs. Hopefully some really competent people.
I guess there's another month to see if there are any changes in MLB coaches.
Guillermo Martinez was a surprising choice for me as hitting coach.
I think he's worked out alright. Speaking Spanish is probably an important thing.
Pete Walker has been here for a long time now. Not that many Spanish pitchers on the staff.
Luis Rivera seems to have worked really hard this year. Not as many blunders at 3rd base either.
Budzinski seems alright too.

Not sure what happened to Shelley Duncan. Is he still with the club?

It's easy to forget that Merryweather and Luciano will soon be part of the system as unofficial prospects.
They could both flame out or have a huge impact.

Jonny German - i try to keep a hard fast rule to not rate any prospect who is more than a year old for his level unless he is outright dominant, and while Murphy was pretty good this year he wasn't really close to dominant. It's not like he has a great arsenal of pitches to dream on, either.

Your philosophy makes sense UO.

I listened to some of Primetime with Jeff Blair and S Brunt. They covered why R Acuna would sign a long term contract but not Vlad. Basically Acuna would want to cash in on guaranteed money for his future and his family. Vlad got a big signing bonus and his dad's money is also family money. But I knew this.

They also shared tidbits of an interview someone did with M Shapiro. The team needs to have a good season before they consider themselves competitive. They also said that the first half of this year was unwatchable and compared it to the first half of 1981 or 1982 as also unwachable.

Well, I wish they had said something sooner and I wouldn't have bothered watching !

Merryweather turns 28 next month.

Agreed ISLAND BOY. Hahaha.

uglyone - that concept makes some sense, especially for position players. For pitchers, I think there's a need for more flexibility. They just develop in such unusual and non-linear ways. For example, at this point I think that there is very little to choose between someone like Hatch and SRF, in terms of their likelihood of ultimately being a useful MLB pitcher (starter or reliever). The chance of them developing is small for both, but if, 10 years from now, Hatch has given the Jays 4-5 years as a useful mid-leverage reliever and SRF has completely washed out, I wouldn't be surprised.

Nigel - I agree, but tbh for me that's actually an argument for taking SRF off the list, not adding a hatch or murphy to the list. SRF is only holding on 1) due to his very good performance last year (and in 2016), 2) draft pedigree, and 3) because I'm looser with the AAA lists just because any of them even the not-really-prospects are so close to being used in MLB in a pinch at any point, even in a bench or bullpen role.

We now have 1 inning pitchers. Our best is Giles. 2-3 inning pitchers that can be an opener or take over for a starter at some point because its a good idea to pull your starter before he runs into trouble. TB has to be studied. Also Marcum and Pedro were great for the 1st 6 innings.

Atkins and the FO know this I believe. So quantity of pitchers has its advantage.

I know that Henke handled 3 or 4 outs quite well. Ward handled at least 6 outs very well. 40-50 pitches can get you 6 outs. Throw as hard as Ward or not as hard as C Janssen. It worked.

again, Mike, to me that's a decent argument to remove SRF from the prospect lists, not add Hatch. a 5 game hot streak in AA from a guy about to turn 25yrs old shouldn't get anyone excited, imo.

and for the record, hatch hasn't had much more success than srf in AA:

AA

SRF (21-22): 177.0ip, 22.7k%, 9.5bb%, .302babip, 4.32era, 4.51fip, 3.91xfip
Hatch (23-24): 279.0ip, 21.0k%, 8.6bb%, .292babip, 3.97era, 4.47fip, 4.21xfip

The 5 game hot streak being proceeded by an addition of a new pitch, while not enough to get excited about as you say, should be enough to find interesting. For me, that's what I find back part of prospect lists to be about - who is interesting, and may become exciting with more reps. I'm not sure if Hatch reaches that level of excitement potential for me so I'm not here to quibble with leaving him off, but I do find him interesting at the moment.

I agree that Hatch seems interesting. Murphy was about to be called up when the umps declared the illegal delivery. Without that, he would probably be in bigs now. Discounting him would be very foolish imo although there now seems yet another obstacle to overcome.

From Longenhagen at FG, something about Edisson

Gonzalez is not on THE BOARD right now because we have him evaluated as a No. 6-8 starter type. He’s a pitchability 19-year-old who has carved up the New York-Penn League, posting a 77-to-13 strikeout to walk rate over 62 innings. He sits 90-93 and has polished feel for locating both his breaking ball and changeup. Much like Simeon Woods-Richardson, Toronto has acquired someone here who is less physically projectable than their age indicates. Unless he develops better stuff than I expect given his size, or ends up with elite command, he’ll likely be in the 35-40 FV range for us at the site.

One more comment on a UO's helpful summary below.  Particularly for young players, it's good to have ages to one decimal.  Martinez is 17.8 years old; Jimenez is 18.3.  Jimenez succeeded offensively at a higher level, apparently has superior defensive skills, and made a cameo in Lansing.  Martinez, of course, is a well-rounded hitter and would have to be rated higher at this point. 

Yeah, I don't know. The Yankees' Devei Garcia is listed at 6'9" 163 lbs and is 1 year older than Gonzalez.
He's 20 and didn't play above rookie ball when he was 19.  He's considered the Yankees' top prospect.

So basically, if Gonzalez breezes through a couple months of AA by this time next year, he'd be a top prospect.

Curious to see where they had Garcia at the end of 2018.

Regarding an extra option year for Alford.

A player who has accrued less than 5 "full seasons" is eligible for a 4th minor league option.

2012-14 don't count because he was playing football.
In 2017, he only played in 77 games. A full season is either 90 days of activity or 30 days of activity and enough time on the DL to add up to 90 days.

I don't really see it unless they're able to pull out some magic with the league.

The Jays got a 4th option a decade ago on someone, but I can't remember who. Maybe McGowan.

While a player's age is very important, there are other things to consider when evaluating future development potential, especially time lost to injury, and for pitchers, a new pitch added to their repertoire. Bill James specifically mentioned pitchers developing new pitches, like Hatch, or significantly improving their control. It doesn't take much of a change to greatly improve a pitcher's chances. Hatch was dominant in his last 5 outings, and I think he looks like a pretty good prospect. Murphy just turned 24 years old 3 months ago, and certainly is not "old" for a guy who was probably about to be promoted to AAA before his delivery was declared illegal. That's the real question with him. If he can get back to where he was with his new delivery, I think he's also a pretty good prospect. His K:BB ratio could be better, and if he could refine his control somewhat, I think he'd really have a better shot. Murphy's development has been substantially delayed by injury, and that's a big part of the reason why he isn't farther up the ladder than he is at this point. You have to factor that in when evaluating where he is at his age. Just looking at his age compared to his level only considers a part of the equation.

The comments that a player is "less physically projectable" sound a little ridiculous to me. You can't know how a very young man is going to develop physically over the next several years, with all the various training regimens available to players now, nutrition, genetics and other factors. Different people will develop differently, and also, when you look at big league pitchers, you see all shapes and sizes. Height is certainly an advantage, and the 2 young players the Jays acquired who are called "less physically projectable" both have it. Sounds to me like scouts thinking they are smarter than they really are.

I agree on Murphy and have hopes for him in 2020.

In 2012, they changed the 60 days + DL to 30 Days + DL.

Murphy had an xFIP of 3.01 in AA even after dealing with the changes to his delivery. I still think his has a better shot to be in the Jays rotation than Waguespack or Zeuch moving forward.

24

Murphy (AAA): ---
Wague (AAA): 39.1ip, 5.03era, 3.49fip, 3.58xfip

Murphy (AA): 84.0ip, 4.71era, 3.35fip, 3.01xfip
Wague (AA): 29.1ip, 3.99era, 2.95fip, 3.64xfip

23

Murphy (AA): 6.0ip, 3.00era, 2.83fip, 3.57xfip
Wague (AA): 37.0ip, 3.65era, 3.50fip, 3.83xfip

Murphy (A+): 146.2ip, 2.64era, 3.19fip, 3.36xfip
Wague (A+): 68.1ip, 3.29era, 2.89fip, 3.12xfip

With Murphy, even once he gets comfortable with his new non-toe tap delivery, his changeup is key. Otherwise he's a two pitch guy and most likely bullpen bound by the time the team is actually trying to contend. The best I've heard is that his change is "better", never plus or good or even average.

"While a player's age is very important, there are other things to consider when evaluating future development potential, especially time lost to injury, and for pitchers, a new pitch added to their repertoire."

Right on Dan. Pitching prospects often have non linear development. They add a cutter, get more control, or many other things. There are just so many examples of pitchers becoming good or even great after being pretty mediocre. (i.e. Guys like Koufax, Randy Johnson, and Scherzer OK pitchers for the first parts of their careers, and became utterly dominant a little later, Halladay was worst pitcher in baseball at 23, best at 26). Look at the pitching leaders this year. Scherzer, Lynn who never looked all that great in the minors and before this year was solid if not spectacular, DeGrom who became a much better pitcher in the majors than he was in the minors, Charlie Morton who was a fungible pitcher until he was 32, etc...It can happen to hitters as well but the development there tends to be more predictable.

true, players come out of nowhere all the time.

not sure if that's a reason to just say everyone is a real prospect, though.

"not sure if that's a reason to just say everyone is a real prospect, though"

Absolutely but I think numbers mean less and raw stuff more with pitchers than with hitters.

Hatch adding another pitch is the only reason I'd put any weight on his post-trade numbers. Otherwise I'd likely have just chalked it up to sample size. We will need to see more of him, especially in AAA, to see whether the results translate to a higher level, but I'm usually more optimistic about sudden positive performance shifts when it is accompanied by some sort of adjustment (ex. Bautista changing his swing in 2009). Hatch is someone to watch in 2020.

The new pitch is certainly key, but four straight normal-length starts with no walks is very out-of-character for Hatch.  In 2018, he had one start with 0 walks, and the same in 2017.    His walk-rate was between 3.5 and 4 in 2017, 2018 and was well over 3 in the Cub system in 2019.  It might be a sample-size fluke but I'd have to run the math- how often will a pitcher with a walk rate of .4/inning throw 26 innings without a walk? .  A crude calculation has it as (.6 to the 26th) 1.7 times per million- it's probably somewhat less than that (you'd have to do W/PA and count PAs to get a better number), but not by an order of magnitude.  If his true walk rate were say .25/inning or 2.25/9, a pitcher would throw 26 innings without a walk (.75 to the 26th) once per 2,000, which is a lot more plausible as a sample size fluke.  Bill James used to talk about this kind of thing as "signature significance". 

interesting article
"Player development off the field may be rendering farm systems irrelevant."
downside of premise is less fun for us though.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-we-even-need-minor-league-baseball/
" ...first high-speed cameras this spring to study pitch grips and body mechanics, the Astros had 75 such cameras hard-mounted at stadiums"
"We were trying to support a bunch of players that had a less than one percent chance of making the major leagues"

Cool article.

Can't help but agree with this:


“At any affiliate, there are three players who have a chance to play in the majors. The rest of the players are there so they so they can play. I don’t think that’s fair,” Buehler told FiveThirtyEight. “You are preying on their dreams.”

Cool article, but disagree with Beuhler. Pretty sure more than 3 players per affiliate will play in the majors, at least above rookie ball.

Checking the 2018 championship NH team for future ML players I get 7 players. Bo, Biggio, H Ramirez, J Davis, Zeuch, Romano and T Bergen.

I suppose I have to stay with 2018 for Buffalo. Vlad, Gurriel, Tellez, D Smith Jr, D Jansen, McGuire, Alford, Urena, J Shafer, SRF and Burucki. 11 players.

2018 Dunedin: Not really good enough. J Palacios, K Smith, P Murphy, Logue and Y Diaz. Pearson if he had not been injured.

2018 Lansing: C Young, S Taylor, M Castillo. Maybe Noda.

Yes, you would think there would be more than three if you count relief pitchers. Of course, bpoz, minor league players have had a greater chance of reaching the majors with a young, rebuilding team like the Jays. Older, better teams have a more set lineup and even the Jays of a few years ago had few rookies on the roster.

totally randomly, i just looked at Bluefield's rosters from 2010-2015, which initially I thought was 5yrs and of course is actually 6yrs.

I count 20 guys that have played in MLB, just over 3 per year. And that includes a whole bunch of guys like Jonathan Davis, Carlos Ramirez, Jimmy Cordero, etc. who stretch the definition of "MLBer" to its utmost limits.

Go back and read Beuhler's quote

"Chance to play in the majors".

In fact there are even more using that criteria. In 2011 guys like Sweeney and Hawkins, both drafted in the top 100 the year prior, played in Bluefield.

Absolutely correct ISLAND BOY. The window was 2013-2018. Good thing we kept Sanchez, Osuna and Stroman. Pillar was good enough. I don't think anyone was cheated or held back except Vlad and that was after the rebuild started in the 2nd half of 2018. So the farm had good players but they were not quite ready yet like D Jansen, my best example.

So of the 6 years 3 for AA and 3 for the current FO. The results are ok. No complaints from me, except I would like to see a healthy season soon.

I think you guys are hearing that the wrong way.

IMO what he's actually trying to say goes along with the overall arc of the article - i.e. that the general ideas of who has a "chance to make it" are overly optimistic, and in reality only a tiny handful do actually make it.

Yeah, if he had said "a few" instead of 3, it would be hard to argue.

Obviously, if you draft mostly college players, you don't really need the low minors.
Only 17.6 percent of the players might reach the majors, but right now teams have 5 years  to put a prospect on the reserve roster and then they're optionable for 3 years. Many players don't conquer AA before the 5 years are up.
That might mean that  6 levels are needed at a minimum, unless you think players are learning more by repeating a level.

Pitchers are not struggling because the hitters are not giving them enough competition.
Are hitters failing to develop because the pitchers are too easy?
I think it's more an argument that Vladdy could have been rushed up by age 18.
Again, that only work if he can come up at 18 and be instantly productive or on a team that is not contending.
It's also only worth it if you can extend him right away and at that age there' s a huge risk.
Boston has an outfielder named Rusney Castillo playing at AAA on a 70M contract.
(No, he wasn't a young prospect that they extended.)

There is some truth that the best prospects are playing against lesser competition, but most of them are failing anyway.
If you promote your players aggressively, most of them will fail and they'll become part of the lesser competition.
The tough competition at the higher levels is actually coming from older, failed players who have been to the majors or are considered too old to be given a chance. Looks who were the best players in Buffalo, for example.
Kivlehan, Brito and Andy Burns were pretty good.

Corey Copping isn't exactly a proof that you don't need to play in the minors to improve.
He was drafted in 2015 and played rookie ball that year. He played rookie and A+ the next year and was sent to the Arizona Fall League at 22. Next year, AA. 2018, AA and AAA. This year he struggled with the juiced ball in Buffalo.
He walks too many.

This seems more about reducing costs--having fewer people to pay--then developing better prospects.