We only have 6 left vs the O's, not 7. Despite that, neither FG or 538 project the Jays to hit 100 losses. 538 has us at 97, FG at 96. IMO, both those are a bit optimistic, but this is a plucky team and the pitching has been better than it seems on paper.

Stro with a good game for the Mets, only 2 R in 6 IP, but they lost again. One thing he did well, HR suppression, hasn't translated to the NL. His GB% there is a career low, his HR/9 a career high and more than double what it was with the Jays. So his xFIP is actually a bit lower as a Met, but his ERA and FIP are a run and a half higher.

We only have 6 left vs the O's, not 7.

That's disappointing. (Corrected!)

Stroman and Sanchez have been showing their new employers a toxic combination of walks and homeruns, definitely not making a great impression.

That's disappointing.

Agreed. There's nothing I like more than watching September baseball between teams that will lose a combined 200 games. :)

Clayton Richards has been activated and Pannone has been recalled.
Nothing else so far.

Vlad is a bench player today and ice cold Grichuk is hitting third.

Bichette
Biggio
Grichuk
Smoak
Hernandez
McKinney
Drury
Jansen
Waguespack

Thanks Bo. Ain't gonna be no-hit today.

Davidi says the Jays will add five, Kay, Zeuch, Davis, Alford and Urena. He couched it with the word "expected".

Hearing that it is likely that Zeuch will pitch in game tomorrow night.

That is exciting to get a look at Zeuch, I’m curious to see the movement on his sinker.

I really don’t have much faith in Waguespack, his command is very poor.

Font will open for Zeuch tomorrow. Kay pitched on Sunday, so he's not available until Friday.

They'll have to make room for both of them.

Zeuch has super scary splits this year in AAA, hopefully he can learn to get out LHB (1.9whip, 24BB, 12K) if he ever wants to have any sort of career in the majors.

Ground ball pitchers can walk the tough bats and hope for a double play.
If I had bad splits, I wouldn't throw anything good to Freeman.

I agree with tercet the splits are scary for a starting pitcher.

McGuire should catch him. There's a lot of familiarity there.

It's a different story with Kay.

Yeah a bigger worry for zeuch than his overall low K numbers is that he doesnt have a breaking ball to use on lefties.

According to Ken Rosenthal in the Athletic (subscription required) , the BJ had a trade for Ken Giles lined up with the Yankees. The Jays would have got 3 prospects, but then the Yankees backed out the last minute.

Perhaps it is a good thing that happened, when we consider the Happ trade from last year.

Here is the url. I am not sure how to do the link thing.

https://theathletic.com/1180737/2019/09/03/rosenthal-an-odd-ruthian-trend-the-deadline-trade-that-wasnt-how-the-mets-fixed-rosario-more-notes/

The Rosenthal article is very interesting.  I loved the short piece in the article on the use of both analytics and traditional methods by the Mets to help Amed Rosario improve his defence by better positioning, set-up and first step.  They measure the frequency that Rosario was in good positioning and set-up by video- they say that they were able to get him from 80% of the time to 96%. 

Zeuch is often compared to other low k-rate, groundball, no change-up pitchers such as Dakota Hudson and Brad Keller. It is interesting that they also have almost double the walk rate against left handed pitchers, and Hudson has very pronounced splits. With the lack of change-up I expect a lot of nibbling on the outside of the zone with Zeuch tonight against left handers.

Last Calendar Year Stats, with one month left to go:

SS Bichette (21): 148pa, 5.4b%/25.0k%, .400bip/.329avg, .279iso, 153wrc+, 6.2war650
LF Gurriel (25): 406pa, 5.9b%/24.9k%, .315bip/.274avg, .253iso, 121wrc+, 3.0war650
3B Vladdy (20): 430pa, 9.8b%/16.7k%, .308bip/.278avg, .182iso, 115wrc+, 1.1war650
1B Smoak (32): 520pa, 16.2b%/22.7k%, .230bip/.207avg, .188iso, 100wrc+, 0.3war650
2B Biggio (24): 338pa, 16.6b%/28.7k%, .279bip/.214avg, .175iso, 99wrc+, 1.9war650
CF Teoscar (26): 459pa, 10.0b%/32.2k%, .276bip/.221avg, .231iso, 97wrc+, 1.4war650
RF Grichuk (27): 628pa, 5.9b%/28.0k%, .285bip/.237avg, .223iso, 94wrc+, 1.1war650
DH Tellez (24): 405pa, 5.9b%/28.4k%, .285bip/.238avg, .222iso, 93wrc+, 0.0war650
C Jansen (24): 400pa, 8.3b%/20.8k%, .228bip/.206avg, .159iso, 72wrc+, 2.6war650

UT McKinney (24): 317pa, 6.0b%/25.9k%, .240bip/.205avg, .181iso, 67wrc+, -1.4war650
OF Fisher (25): 130pa, 11.5b%/30.0k%, .229bip/.191avg, .200iso, 79wrc+, 0.5war650
IF Drury (26): 398pa, 5.0b%/25.4k%, .263bip/.222avg, .166iso, 66wrc+, -0.7war650
C McGuire (24): 88pa, 3.4b%/22.7k%, .310bip/.286avg, .274iso, 127wrc+, 6.7war650


IF Urena (23): 103pa, 3.9b%/31.1k%, .422bip/.281avg, .042iso, 72wrc+, 0.6war650
C Maile (28): 140pa, 6.4b%/22.9k%, .234bip/.188avg, .102iso, 41wrc+, 0.5war650
IF Travis* (28): 45pa, 0.0b%/11.1k%, .250bip/.222avg, .089iso, 39wrc+, -2.9war650
OF Davis (27): 79pa, 3.8b%/24.1k%, .200bip/.160avg, .053iso, 9wrc+, -4.1war650
OF Brito (26): 70pa, 10.0b%/32.9k%, .179bip/.129avg, .081iso, 14wrc+, -7.4war650
OF Alford (24): 8pa, 0.0b%/50.0k%, .000bip/.000avg, .000iso, -100wrc+, -16.3war650

Since August 1st Vladdy has hit 0.330/0.394/0.553 for a 150 wRC+, but still only for 0.6 fWAR which works out to 3.7 fWAR is a season. This is pretty much as much as you can expect with the bat and if this is what Vladdy is then I am a little disappointed, and the Jays need more value out of him.

With Zeuch and Kay arriving Zack Godley has been DFA'd.

Alford, Davis, Urena and Zeuch added to the roster today. None of the hitters are in the starting lineup.

People constantly mention Vlad's defence, but that may not even be his biggest issue.

165 players have had 400 PA's. Only 4 have had a bigger negative with their baserunning than Vlad. Some has to do with his weight, but as Dirty Harry eloquently stated "A man's got to know his limitations". Vlad doesn't seem to know his.

Luke Maile has managed to be +1 for his major league career in baserunning.  It's hard to be better than average with below average speed, but getting to average is basically about judgment, as Dirty Harry said. 

Just noticed that Randal Grichuk is -3 for his baserunning.  Brother.

"Grichuk has had a pretty terrible age 27 season"

Let's hope it's just perils of the 1st season of a big new contract, as the player presses to try to justify the deal. You see it more often when a player signs with a new team. At 27, there would seem to be no fundamental reason why he would suddenly experience such a drop off.

Agree that Vladdy's 1st season numbers are disappointing, but disagree that the last couple of months are as good as we can expect. Bill James did an interesting study on 20 year old rookies. The improvements they typically demonstrate in subsequent years are enormous. The career differences even between 20 year old rookies and 21 year old rookies producing about the same results in their rookie years is massive in favour of the 20 year olds.

Disappointed to see Godley dropped. There are 9 or 10 guys I'd rather see let go. I guess the 4.2 WAR season he had in 2017 is seen as some kind of fluke, but that's an all-star calibre season just 2 years ago. It does seem to be out of line with the rest of his career, but he produced 0.3 WAR in his 16 innings as a Jay, a 3 WAR pace for a 160 inning season.

I really meant that Vladdy for the last few months has been an elite hitter, but his defence and base running has been so bad that his overall value is still a lot less than the superstar I was hoping for.

Vladdy's comparable is supposed to be Miguel Cabrera.
At age 20, Vladdy is ahead by a good margin.

I agree that Grichuk’s power is likely to bounce back, at least to some extent. However, this year is a perfect example of the risk that players of Grichuk’s offensive profile pose. The only way a player with a 6% BB rate and 25-30% k rate can survive is to avoid BABIP bad luck and have a huge ISO%. Any bad luck from the BABIP gods or a drop in power and the bat doesn’t play. Hernandez and Fisher likely pose similar risks. Anyway, Grichuk’s defence in RF also appears to have slipped but that’s only by the eye test. Hopefully avoiding CF (for the most part) will help that part of his game.

Rookie 20yr old or younger seasons since 1945, minimum 300pa:

1.M.Trout 153wrc+ (.358babip)
2.F.Tatis Jr. 148wrc+ (.410babip)
3.J.Soto 146wrc+ (.339babip)
4.F.Robinson 145wrc+ (.289babip)
5.R.Acuna Jr. 143wrc+ (.352babip)
6.T.Conigliaro 138wrc+ (.308babip)
7.C.Correa 136wrc+ (.296babip)
8.J.Heyward 134wrc+ (.334babip)
9.V.Pinson 125wrc+ (.346babip)
10.B.Horner 124wrc+ (.236babip)
11.O.Cepeda 123wrc+ (.324babip)
12.B.Harper 121wrc+ (.310babip)
13.W.Mays 120wrc+ (.279babip)
14.G.Stanton 118wrc+ (.330babip)
15.M.Mantle 116wrc+ (.307babip)
16.V.Guerrero Jr. 115wrc+ (.308babip)
17.E.Mathews 113wrc+ (.265babip)
18.B.Wynegar 113wrc+ (.278babip)
19.C.Hurdle 113wrc+ (.312babip)
20.C.Cedeno 111wrc+ (.352babip)
21.R.Alomar 107wrc+ (.300babip)
22.M.Cabrera 106wrc+ (.329babip)
23.K.Griffey Jr 106wrc+ (.289babip)
24.J.Torre 104wrc+ (.308babip)
25.H.Aaron 103wrc+ (.281babip)

I am impressed with the movement on Zeuch’s sinker. He did leave a hanging breaking ball that got smoked in that inning though.

Zeuch looks exactly as advertised. Sinker looks like a quality major league pitch. The secondaries look pretty inconsistent. As I type this Donaldson hit his double. I was about to say, I’m not sure how many times through the order one quality pitch will take you.

Encarnacion has homered so the Yanks now have 13 players with 10 or more. Maybin is at 8, is hurt, and isn't guaranteed a ton of at-bats even if healthy. And he's also not really a homerun hitter. So he seems a stretch to be number 14.

Still, I believe 13 is a record, based on what others have posted here.

Nice.

15.M.Mantle 116wrc+ (.307babip)
16.V.Guerrero Jr. 115wrc+ (.308babip)

That's a fascinating list, Not-so-attractive one. I'm assuming it's the Top 25, and others would have qualified. And to be clear these are rookie seasons right? Not 20 year old seasons. We're looking at Griffey as a 19 year old rookie, not a 20 year old sophomore. (I know, that's what it says - I was just so flummoxed by Griffey being there and Al Kaline not being there that I was deeply confused for minutes and then I figured it out!)

The real takeaway, to my mind, is how basically unpredictable the development of young players can be. These guys were all good players, but some continue growing like Mays and Mantle, and some just don't, like Heyward and Pinson.

Heyward is a rather bizarre exception to the rule. His best hitting season was actually his age 20 rookie season. The vast majority of 20 year old rookies who hit at least reasonably well turn out to be stars. many of them become all time greats. The development curve still has a huge upward slant to it at that age.

I'm having trouble generating much enthusiasm for Derek Fisher. Aside from an occasional flash of power and good speed, he has shown nothing so far in a Blue Jay uniform. Then last night he shied away from a catchable ball in foul territory because he was afraid of running into the stands. (The ball dropped several feet from the stands)

He is getting a great chance to show he's a major league player and so far he hasn't proven he is one.

Yeah, but he went 2 for 3 with a walk.

It looked pretty bad, but it's the first time he played in that park and it was a long run to get there.
It's difficult to make certain types of play unless you practice them.
Infielders do a lot of drills. Outfielders tend to chase fly balls from center field because you don't want the guy to get injured crashing into the stand during practice. Still, it did look pretty bad and it starts to look like Fisher has trouble tracking balls.

For truly awful defense, look as some Clint Frazier videos.
I think it's just a matter of time until he nets another concussion.

I was impressed with Zeuch. He's a big presence.

He was nervous and missed on a few pitches. He threw a lot of pitches high over the plate. Not sure if that's typical.
He has a curve and a slider, but he has a tendency to throw them at 83mph.
They want him to sit at 86mph on his breaking stuff or it's hittable even if they're sitting fastball.

I think Waguespack has a higher release point, but Zeuch's stuff comes from high and to the side.
Not sure why they went with the opener. Font was on short rest and it didn't work.
Zeuch seems like a fairly consistent guy.
Kay has better stuff but worse command. He should be next.

Fisher has gotta be pressing. Out of options, getting a chance, trying to make an impression. The Jays seem to have a couple of guys in that boat (Alford is right there too).

It's going to be interesting to see what happens in the offseason. I do wonder if we see a guy like Teoscar moved as part of it, but there just appears to be a few too many guys that this FO likes for positions to play them.

Hey, jerjapan, I think you mentioned being a Ryan McBroom fan a few posts ago. Here's Dave Laurila at FG with an interview.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-royal-ryan-mcbroom-is-a-late-bloomer-who-rakes/

Also want to mention the Nats-Mets game last night. Pete Alonso hits a 2 run shot off Daniel Hudson in the top of the 9th, stretching the Mets lead to 10-4 and "put the game on ice".

Or maybe not. Nats get within 10-8. Edwin Diaz grooves a FB with 2 men on to Kurt Suzuki. Suzuki's HR walks it off with the biggest 9th inning comeback in franchise (Nats and Expos) history.

I had a look at the statcast data for Zeuch last night, his slider and change-up actually graded out pretty well. The only red flag was a lack of command with his sinker and a lot of hard contact given up with the same pitch. It could be nerves on that front, but it seems a lot of young Jays pitchers struggle with fastball command.

With Ripken he was a 105+ OPS+ every season from age 21 to 30. From age 31 to 40 he cracked 105 just twice, 107 at age 33 (1994 the infamous strike year), and at age 38 (144 in just 86 games, his first non-strike year to have under 160 games played). He might have been better served to have 5-10 games off a year, but then over 17 years of full time play he'd have lost 5 x 17 = 85 to 170 games of play, or 1/2 to a full season. Plus of course, he wouldn't have been the legend he was. And in that stretch he hit 276/344/448 for a 114 OPS+ as a gold glove shortstop. Only at 3B for the final 2 years of that 17 year stretch.

I think the general rule with players is 5-10 games a season off if you want them at peak performance and peak production (IE: get as much out of them as possible). There are exceptions like Ripken, but few of them exist. I think Vlad might need 15-20 off a year due to his size which is why you don't want a pure DH on the team as if DH is open he can do that instead for most of those 15-20 games. I suspect Bo will be mixed into that, but at a lower level (5-10 a year) as will others. I read a study once that said 5-10 was the ideal amount of time off a year for a player.

I agree with that, John.  I would always try to give a player one day off in the middle of a long stretch of games on consecutive days.  Leaving aside the catcher who is probably getting a day off a week minimum, I'd probably take the 4 days in the middle of the stretch and give 2 players the day off.  The Blue Jays had one set of 20 games from July 26-August 16, and I'd try to get most players 2 days off during that stretch.

John I agree with that usage pattern as well. But if there's one thing I think we've learned about Montoyo's managerial style this year, it's that that isn't how he rolls. You give him a toy to play with, he's going to. I don't know if that's good or bad but it seems a thing with him. Given that tendency, he has (and will have next year) a very versatile roster filled with players with some obvious strengths and weaknesses. If there is one area I would like to see Montoyo improve upon its managing that tendency to get everyone regular playing time to better utilize those strengths and weaknesses. As but one example - if Zeuch is around next year then Vladdy's day off should try and coincide with a Zeuch start (etc.). Provided that doesn't also coincide with Victoria Day:)

Plus of course, he wouldn't have been the legend he was.

Yeah I never understood the over the top love for him. Becoming an Ironman in baseball is to largely a function of good luck- not hit in the hands, stepped on or twisted an ankle on a play- and to me is less impressive than players in high contact games like hockey or football. Plus by the end of the streak I thought there were games he looked like a fire hydrant, was likely playing injured and may well have hurt his team. Seemed like a decent guy and a good player. but didn’t understand the level of fawning.

Thanks Hypo, I hadn't seen that article on McBroom.  I do love me the longshots, happy to see the guy get his chance. 

Never really liked the Refsnyder trade.

If a guy doesn't hit with the Yankees, chances are he'll never hit.
Pitchers are different. Lots of guys struggle on the Bronx mound.

Neil Ramirez cleared waivers and chose to become a free agent.
No surprise there.

I think it was an assortment of things that made Cal a legend. The fact the streak started with a consecutive innings stretch that will probably never be approached (8264 innings, 2nd is 5152 in the 1800's ... no idea why his managers refused to pull him in 10-0 games and the like), plus the fact the consecutive games streak was attacked in the 70/80's by Steve Garvey (very popular in his time) but he ended at 1207, just good for 3rd at the time. Cal passed Gerhig the year after the strike (seen as a turning point for baseball to help move forward from the strike mess) and only ended his streak by choice at the end of the 1998 season.

Lots of good reasons for people to have cared about Ripken's streak. I remember watching the game he broke the old record - he hit 2 home runs that game iirc, the hype around it was big as it was a record we'd probably never see approached again. Of course, Miguel Tejada had a 1152 game streak (close to Garvey) in 2000-2007 until he was hit on the wrist and had it broken.

Kansas City's Jorge Soler just hit his 40th homer. He is the first Royals player ever to hit that many in a season. It only took them 50 years.

I would think that should settle the argument over whether there's something funny going on with the baseballs this year.

Yeah I never understood the over the top love for [Ripken].

On the one hand, it was simply an amazing accomplishment and far more impressive than Gehrig's original streak. But it got completely out of hand. It got bigger than the team, and nothing so fundamentally trivial should ever get that important.

I dunno, his streak probably gave more joy and pride to their fans than the team did.

Ripken is simultaneously overrated and underrated. He receives undue accolades for the streak. Detractors cite his non-Ruthian hitting, diminishing his near-100 WAR career (BBRef has him ranked 36th).

HR's hit with the same launch angle and exit velocity should travel about the same distance, if conditions like wind, altitude and humidity are taken into account. Actually no, and sometimes it's not even close.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-physics-of-identical-homers/

"HR's hit with the same launch angle and exit velocity should travel about the same distance, if conditions like wind, altitude and humidity are taken into account. Actually no, and sometimes it's not even close."

Without reading the article - yet - and purely for the purposes of speculation, at least the spin of the ball could be a pretty big factor.

Yep, that's it.  It's easier to get backspin (and no sidespin) on a high pitch hit between the alleys. 

Good article. The curve of the ball hit down the line is a big factor as well. The ball hit toward CF travels in a straight line, while the ball down the line has a big curve to it, so the distance it ends up from the plate is not a true reflection of how far the ball actually travelled. I find stuff like this very interesting, and have recommended the book, The Physics Of Baseball, here many times.