Magpie, ESPN a couple of days ago with basically what you wrote:

"Everyone loved this deal for Houston, as the Astros gave up only a fourth outfielder type in Derek Fisher to take a chance on the hard-throwing Sanchez, the former ERA champ who had struggled with the Blue Jays but is still under team control through 2020. Then Sanchez went out and threw six no-hit innings in his first start and it appeared the Astros had immediately fixed him.

Or maybe not. Sanchez beat the Orioles, then the A's roughed him up and then he left a start and landed on the IL with a sore right pectoral muscle. Even if he returns in mid-September, that's limited time for the Astros to find out if he'll be able to contribute in October, most likely as a reliever. Biagini, meanwhile, has allowed 14 hits, five walks and two home runs in 8⅔ innings, and at this point would be off the playoff roster."

And Stevenson's hitting .231 in Fayetteville, albeit with an obscene number of walks.

Early days, early days.

When Sanchez comes back, I wouldn't be surprised to see him pitch out of the pen. Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Miley is a pretty nice four man rotation and do you need five starters in the post-season? So I would think they'll want to see if relief is a job Sanchez can do for them.

I am surprised that the Astros used Sanchez out of the rotation in the first place.  It seemed obvious to me that they would be using him in the pen in the playoffs.  I guess that they needed a starter at the moment, and figured no harm could come from a short audition for 2020 now.  Wrong!

I expect that Sanchez and his agent Boras will tell the Astros that they absolutely need Sanchez as a starter in the post-season and the Astros will tell Boras what to do with that opinion. He will be lucky if he makes the post-season roster.

Still doesn't excuse trading him for Derek Fisher.

Lots of other guys were moved by Toronto at the deadline, and three of them may be playing in a Wild Card game. David Phelps has pitched well for Chicago and Daniel Hudson has been just fabulous for Washington. Unless something weird happens in the next month - it's baseball, youneverknow - that's going to be your NL Wild Card game, Nats and Cubs. Marcus and the Mets are five games out and have to overtake four teams. Which is unlikely.

Meanwhile, Eric Sogard has cooled off these last two weeks, but the Rays are just one game out of playing someone - Cleveland, Oakland, maybe even Minnesota - in the AL game.

the Astros will tell Boras what to do with that opinion.

But very politely. Boras also represents Gerrit Cole.

Do we know who Font is opening for on Sunday? Anthony Kay’s last start was Tuesday...

Do we know who Font is opening for on Sunday? Anthony Kay’s last start was Tuesday...

I expect Font will open for Godley and Kay will start against Scranton.

Kay might not be with the team though. Shows on the temporary inactive list.

The announcement on the two PTBNLs for Sogard are due any day (Atkins said at the time they had a month to decide).

Took a look at Sogard's Tampa line. Identical or close to his Jay's numbers in most every category.

Yes, Sogard's hitting rates are virtually identical, and his defense has been much better with TB. He's now up to 2.8 WAR in fewer than 100 games. About a 4.5 WAR player at that pace, or a 5.5 WAR player at his TB pace. He should get a nice contract this offseason.

For those interested in what caused Tyler Scaggs' recent death, Mike Green posted a link this afternoon to a very interesting article explaining it on the Toronto/Boston thread.

Cole is a free agent who's getting a QO.
I don't think they care much about Boras here.

For those interested in what caused Tyler Scaggs' recent death, Mike Green posted a link this afternoon to a very interesting article explaining it on the Toronto/Boston thread.when even is that? I looked a few pages.
Sorry, but people need to post in recent threads.

Reposting to avoid a lot of digging https://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/story/2019-08-30/tyler-skaggs-autopsy-report-fentanyl-oxycodone-alcohol-angels-rusty-hardin

It wasn't the Vesparax that killed Jimi Hendrix, not directly. But if you drink enough beer and take enough downers, when you pass out and start vomiting, you're too unconscious to wake up.

That seems to be what happened to Skaggs. It sure looks like he got back to his hotel room a little drunk, popped a couple of painkillers, and passed out.

The painkillers were not even fully digested, so it seems you're right.

Another huge game from McGuire. 3 for 3 with a HR plus that catcher interference call that scored the first run.

Guerrero was 0 for 3, which could explain the frustration.
Bichette only 1 hit, but another double that puts him just behind DiMaggio.

I don't know why they hit Smoak behind Grichuk.
It's better to have all the OBP guys bunched at the top.

Another 0 for 4 from Drury.
The fact that he works so hard before the game and looks so bad at the plate does not inspire me.
Drury is above McKinney, Smoak, Biggio, Jansen and Fisher in batting average. (It's pretty close)
However, he's dead last in OBP if you exclude Maile who should be gone.

Player A .207 .262 .401 .663
Player B .220 .258 .390 .649

A is Kevin Smith in AA and B is Drury.

Decent chance Buchholz gets waived today after his start? Would there still be time for a playoff team to claim him?

Both Drury and Smith changed their swings. Sometimes you get a Muncy, sometimes you get a Drury.

While I've given up on Drury, Fisher is intriguing.
He's slugging .456 with a low .175 batting average and a low .277 OBP.
If he can just improve his plate discipline a bit, you'd have a .800 OPS bat.
Worth getting a bigger sample size.

Surprisingly, Montoyo has expressed his excitement at getting Jonathan Davis back in September.
Gurriel will be good to return in a week.
So, no Alford?

It seems we will see Kay in September while Zeuch could be in the AFL with Murphy, Perez and one other guy.

DBacks beat the Dodgers last night, ending their record setting streak of mediocrity. They were 38-35 on June 16th. They are now 69-66. In the 60 games between, they were never more than 2 games over .500 or 2 games under .500, breaking the old mark of 56.

Decent chance Buchholz gets waived today after his start?

I doubt it. And I can't see how it would be possible for someone to claim him in time to be eligible for the post-season. Obviously he can't make today's waiver list. So he would be placed on the waiver list that gets transmitted at 2:00 PM on 1 September, and if he's claimed, the claim would be awarded at 1:00 PM on 2 September.

If Kay is the only guy added to the 40, they only need one spot.
Again, I'd just release Maile. He'd still get the same money and I certainly don' t need to see him play.

Room has to be made for Tepera, and then Luciano, being activated from 60 day IL.

He probably gets added, but I'm not sure I wouldn't waive Tepera. I haven't checked Greentrac, but I'm assuming Ryan is Arb eligible and I'm not sure he's worth what he might receive. There are probably others that can be removed first though.

Drury in the lineup again? Oh my.

I'd hadn't considered Tepera being released but you make a good point. He's an Arb 2 in the off-season, having lost his case last offseason after asking for $1.8M. As an Arb 2, with 4+ years of service, he's likely in line for a ~$3.0M contract (this is what Kirby Yates got last offseason with similar service time, age, injury history, etc.). He'd be one of the highest paid guys on the team...

We're still carrying 4 catchers. Either one of Maile or Beau Taylor can be released. We probably should only carry 2 catchers on the 40-man roster during the off-season, given the arms that need to be protected.

Four double plays in five innings. That's a lot. (The record for nine innings is seven, it's been done three times.)

"Drury in the lineup again? Oh my"

Yes, this is a continuing big red flag to me. He should be gone.

Drury in the lineup again? Oh my.

Oh, giving Smoak the day off isn't a big deal.

After a mini-streak, Stevenson has his OBP over .400 for Fayetteville. He has scored 17 runs in 20 games.

It all changes tomorrow, but if Drury is gone that means Urena has to be here. Because you do have to have a backup infielder on the premises, even though the three kids are probably going to be in the lineup every day. And Urena's still so young that I'd rather see him playing in Buffalo than sitting in Toronto.

I think Urena may be dropped from 40 man in off season in favour of Espinal. I don't think there is room for both. Some might prefer to drop Drury but I don't see it happening.

Mike, you talked me into buying in on Stevenson, and I still can't grasp why he was included in that trade.  It seems the FO was either super low in him, or super high on Fisher and needed a sweetener to get him. 

Nice win today.  The competitive future may be closer than we think.
Tellez is obviously on the bubble ... is it all worth considering him in platoon against righties?  with the expanded roster and the 'years of control' remaining, he could be a good, cheap player in a less regular role?

I’m not even advocating for dumping Drury (although I’m ambivalent to that), what does not make sense to me is that he’s on pace to get something like 450 PA this season. Why? Do we need another 1500 PA’s to know that he is what he is?

I don't think Espinal is at any risk of being taken in the rule V.
He doesn't have much power. He didn't play much shortstop and when he did he committed too many errors.
If Bichette goes on the shelf, Urena would become the starter and maybe Espinal the backup.
I figure Drury starts 2020 in Toronto, but if the numbers don't improve, other players will challenge him for playing time.

Clayton Richard is an other obvious release candidate.
A healthy Tepera is better than most of the guys currently in the pen.
I imagine they'll have a long look before they release him.

I think Urena may be dropped from 40 man in off season in favour of Espinal.

From where I'm sitting, there's not a whole lot of difference between them, except Urena's some 16 months younger. And we know he can't pitch. How does their defence compare?

[Drury’s] on pace to get something like 450 PA this season. Why?

The biggest reason is Vlad didn't come up until the end of April. That's the only month when Drury had more than 100 plate appearances. He went down to 80 in May and 58 in June.

But then he started hitting - .262/.300/.538 in July - which got him some more playing time. Along with the fact that Montoyo clearly likes to play everybody. He doesn't like to see any of his guys go two games without being in the starting lineup, although he's beginning to make an exception for Billy McKinney.

Espinal is more versatile and would have 3 options years (an advantage). He has been steadily improving while Urena is much the same. Espinal went 0 for 15 upon promotion to Buffalo and is now over .300. He also has considerably higher OBP than Urena. I have nothing against Richie but I think it's an easy decision to place Espinal ahead of him and I fully expect that to happen.

McKinney in August - August 1st, (minors 4/6/7/8/9 785 OPS), 13th, 17/18/20/21/24/27/28/30 - pretty regular I'd say. Similar to what I'd expect from a guy in a platoon.

Since coming up McKinney has hit 240/269/440 for a 709 OPS. He is very much a meh guy imo. Unless there is something the Jays see that the stats don't. This year in AAA he has had his best numbers at any level - 271/383/488.

Drury is the other 'why is he here' guy with a worse ML line - 220/258/390 before today (2 for 3 with a walk). He can play pretty much anywhere (wonder if he is being taught to catch as an emergency guy) and has played all but CF/CA/P this year. Useful as a super-utility I guess, but fielding isn't great anywhere. A guy I'd not miss if let go. On July 2nd his line was 204/254/343 then he got hot and hit 301/327/602 (98 PA) from July 3rd to August 12. Since he has hit an ugly 122/122/171 (41 PA) before today. So he showed something for a bit and I'm sure the Jays think that might be for real thus mixed with his ability to play anywhere he has value still.

McKinney is younger, but Drury has more potential value due to positional flexibility. Neither is worth keeping over a solid prospect or decent player though.

Seeing Giles handle the heart of the Astros order with ease in the ninth inning today made me think it would be a good idea to try and extend his contract rather than trade him. It's easy to find someone with closer-like stuff, but it's not easy to find someone who can control it when the pressure of the game being on the line dictates it.

It’s like every single year everyone forgets the lessons of relievers. The top five relieves last year for on FG combined for 14.6 WAR. This year, those same relievers have combined for 2.9 WAR. Relievers are highly unpredictable and extending them or signing them to big contracts is almost always a bad idea. Always be trading relievers until you are competing.

There's no need to extend him. They have him for 2020.
If he's good and they're not competing they can trade him.
If he's good and they're in the wildcard picture, they can just give him a QO.
If he's not good, it's not a huge loss.
He probably doesn't bring back much over the winter unless the Jays send money with him.
He's probably extendable, but it's only worth it if it's through team options.
You don't want to guarantee him 3 or 4 years.

I think you guys are severely underestimating Giles. He's not just putting up solid WAR or getting saves like most of the hot/cold relievers. He's absolutely dominating the best in baseball and he will absolutely bring back a ransom in trade. This isn't a Wade Davis or Blake Treinen or Doolittle...not some slouch that did a 180. He's been elite-solid and is now at his best. I think those calling for an extension view him as Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman material in their prime, not merely a RP having a good year who is replaceable because he can't replicate. He's doing better than Osuna who's probably the reliever most likely to receive a long term deal based on age and track record on the field.

You absolutely trade or extend Giles since he's easily your best pitcher. You certainly don't cast him into the "meh he's replaceable and interchangeable" category reserved for the rest.

The interchangeability of relievers is not based on their quality, it's based on the fact that they almost all have very short peaks. Treinen and Diaz were the best two relievers in baseball last year and both were fantastic. They are worth 0 WAR combined this year. This happens all the time and if you are looking over the course of a few years, very very few relievers last as dominant pitchers. Closers are the last piece teams should look to add. Rebuilding teams are always better off trading closers for other value. Giles has has a terrific year, but would you bet on Giles being terrific in 2022? Odds are pretty heavily against it and it's certainly not worth passing up on prospects to find out. Other relievers will come.

I think we are in agreement that he's highly valuable and can be traded for good value. I contest the idea that he's like the other relievers mentioned who lack history and consistency and most importantly the skills.

If you're making an argument to trade Giles then make that argument without the generalization and story that he's a reliever and all relievers have short lived success.

I see Giles as trade bait, unless the jays feel strongly he can keep this up for 3 more years in which case he has value if the team competes in 2021/2022 as planned.

Otherwise just trade him this winter. The value of an ace closer has always been overstated due to the heartache when you lose a game in the 9th. In the HOF not counting guys in for other reasons (Ruth, Paige, Hank O'Day - in as an umpire) the lowest WAR by pitchers are Bruce Sutter & Rollie Fingers then John Ward (1800's all-around star, SS and pitcher), then Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith. 14th worst is Rich (Goose) Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm is 23rd worst. Mariano Rivera is the best reliever at 31st worst although Dennis Eckersley is better (he started for years too) at 40th as is #48 John Smoltz (mostly a starter) . All are below average for the HOF (69 WAR).

This strongly suggests even the best of the best for relievers do not have long high peak careers. Rivera was by far the best pure reliever with just 1 year of 5+ WAR, 3 in the 4's, 6 in the 3's, 5 in the 2's, and 4 sub 2. 89.1% of regular season save opportunities he converted, so he blew 80 saves or over 19 seasons about 4 a year (just slightly over 4).

For comparison Bill Caudill was generally viewed as one of the worst trades the Jays made, he was to be the star closer in 1985 luckily Tom Henke showed up the same season and it worked out. Still, Caudill had 14 saves and 5 blown that year or 73.7% converted. If he pitched like Rivera he'd have had 17 saves or 3 more. That is comparing the best ever to a guy viewed as a flop. For a fairer comparison what about Mike Timlin, normally a setup guy who was pushed into closing one year here (31 saves, 8 blown for a 81.6% conversion rate) the spread there vs Rivera is 34 or 3 more saves over a full season.

So basically taking a middle man and making him a closer seems to make a spread vs an elite closer of 3 wins or so a year (depending how many chances you give him).

Giles has been beyond elite in his 1 1/2 seasons here though, with 32 saves and just 1 blown. He sucked last year when not given a save situation but his job is to be there in saves. We all know that ain't going to be sustainable going forward. Rivera's best was a 39-1 season (Sv-BSv) and every single season he blew at least one save (even his rookie year when he was primarily a starter).

Bottom line - a closer is valuable but their peaks tend to be short and hard to sustain. Even the best ever blew games now and then. The spread from best to 'meh' is around 3 or 4 a year. It feels like more but it isn't. Just don't give the ball to a pure crap guy and you are fine.

For an example of an extreme shift - Brad Lidge. 2008 41 saves, 0 blown, ERA sub 2. 2009 31 saves, 11 blown 7.21 ERA. 2010 27-5 2.95 ERA, he only had 5 more save opportunities in his career (3-2). After 2008 (age 31) I'm sure many thought a long term deal would make sense and he did get a 3 year deal for $36 mil. The Phillies regretted that one I'm sure.

There are always a few guys who have great seasons as relievers out of nowhere, and then disappear, but there are guys who are consistently good year after year. Giles is one of them, and he's one of the best around. His FIP by year since he came into the big leagues - 1.34, 2.13, 2.86, 2.39, 3.08, 1.93. That's 6 good seasons in a row, and in the one year he was over 3.00, he had a small number of bad non-save appearances, and didn't have a blown save all year. He's only 28 years old. I would say the odds of him still being very good in 2022 are very high, way over 50%. How often do you get a player on your team who is one of the absolute best at his position? If they trade him, they will almost certainly end up trading for a closer within a year or two, and likely end up with one inferior to Giles. Depends on the money, of course, but I'd love to see the Jays lock him up for 3 or 4 more years.

John, I don't agree with evaluating relievers by WAR. WAR is a counting stat, so relievers naturally won't build up as much WAR as starters because they don't pitch as many innings. The innings a closer pitches, however, are disproportionately more important due to the high leverage inherent in most of their appearances.

Most of those closers you mentioned were outstanding for 10 years or more. The best ones, like Giles, have long consistent careers like that.

Interesting that you mention Caudill and his 5 blown saves in 1985. The thing is, he was only the closer for about half the year before Henke took over, so that was a 10 blown save season he was on pace for. With a guy like Rivera, as you point out, you've got about 4 blown saves, a difference of 6 wins, which is huge. Mariano's 89% is about as good as it gets, and just looking at a few closers, I didn't find many who were in that high 80's range. One of them is Giles, who is at 88% for his career. Osuna, just for comparison, is at 85%. Hoffman is another one at around 88-89%, as is Kenley Jansen. Sutter wasn't nearly that good, and I don't understand why he is in the HOF.

Realistically, Giles is not getting extended. Just because he has been great doesn’t mean he will be great for years to come (past performance being no guarantee of future results, as the truism goes). He was on the IL this year with an elbow injury. He’s about to get expensive. The Jays are not yet a contender, and might not be one until the next generation of good prospects (Groshans, Pearson, Manoah, Kloffenstein, Moreno, Kirk, Pardinho, SWR, others) makes it to the majors.

The best move would be to trade Giles for a prospect or two that the team truly wants (as opposed to Drury/McKinney filler).

Giles only had 1 good season and 3 bad seasons in Houston.
Even last year, in Toronto, he was bad when it wasn't a save situation and ended up with an ERA+ of 105.
That's far from great in the bullpen.

Also, Toronto was out of it, so there wasn't much pressure on him.
And there was an elbow issue that kept him from being traded.

BJ Ryan had no red flags and was not worth the contract he got.
Now, there's nothing wrong with keeping Giles and offering him a QO or a team friendly contract if he bites.
But because of his history, I'm not expecting a significant return if he gets traded.

Ryan’s delivery was a red flag.

I would estimate Giles’s future as follows:

75% chance traded in the off-season
20% chance traded next July
5% chance he pitches for the Jays in 2021

Scott, are you reading the posts in this thread all the way through before you post?

"Ryan had no red flags"

Other than maybe the worst pitching mechanics in baseball.

Tepera is active.
Neil Ramirez is DFA.

I expect the Jays to try/hope for a decent pen with only 2 minor FA additions like D Phelps. Cheap veterans.

Giles will be the closer unless an acceptable trade offer is made.

I expect we will go through 17 or so relievers. Tepera, Law, Mayza, Pannone, Font and Gaviglio would make it. There is never any real competition for jobs in ST I believe. Shafer and Romano would be 2 leading candidates among the young inexperienced relievers.

Options and 40 man crunch issues may play a part but most likely not because we have a lot of pitching mediocrity. Atkins has done a very good job of picking up a decent number of mediocre relievers. It will be interesting to see what happens to the likes of Kingham, B Stewart and B Boshers.

Lots of good pitchers have bad mechanics.
They just call it "unsual delivery".

B.J. Ryan is the pitching coach at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.
First he got TJ surgery, which is very common.
Then he got some shoulder issue, but his velocity never came back following TJ surgery.
That has probably nothing to do with mechanics.
He did pitch 8 years without requiring time on the DL.

Kingham is a free agent. He will get a minor contract somewhere.
Boshers is a lefty. He''ll be out of options next year while Pannone and Mayza will still have 1 left.
Stewart will be out of options next year. Godley is already out. There might not be much need for guys like that next year.
It's better to get guys like this on minor league contracts.

Font looks like a keeper. Gaviglio has been good.
I'm not sure about Law. I guess they keep him as a middle reliever. He hasn't actually been that great.
Adam will still have an option.

The rule V situation is tricky.
Pitchers will be limited to 13 spots, so it will be harder to hide a rule V pitcher in the back of a pen.
Position players will also number 13, so it becomes easier to hide a position player, but it would hurt a prospect to not play much for a year. Still, I expect bad teams to just gamble, grab guys and then return them later when they've embarrassed themselves.

#BlueJays acquire RHP Curtis Taylor and RHP Edisson Gonzalez from the Tampa Bay Rays to complete the Eric Sogard deal.

Taylor is 24, pitched at AA and is rule 5 eligible 2019
Gonzalez is 19, pitched at A and is rule 5 eligible 2020

Each seems to have promise with relatively good numbers.

Edisson Gonzales’ numbers look incredible at first glance

Only 5-10 160lbs tho.

Pedro-sized

Taylor is Canadian and looks like a decent relief prospect. Gonzalez is younger and further away but no idea what kind of stuff he has,

This is preseason Taylor per FG

This is another reliever who, based on usage patterns, it appears is being developed for some kind of multi-inning role, perhaps to follow the opener. Taylor was acquired from Arizona for Brad Boxberger, and after the Dbacks had taken his early-career development slowly (Taylor was a raw college arm from Canada), the Rays hit the gas pedal and quickly moved him to Montgomery in May. He thrived there, typically throwing 35 to 50 pitches once every three to five days. Most of those pitches were mid-90s fastballs that played up due to big extension, while some were above-average sliders. On paper, this reads like a standard two-pitch middle reliever, and for that reason, it’s fair to question whether Taylor’s usage might be caricaturing his velocity, and if his fastball would be this hard on back-to-back days, or if his usage were more variable. But if this is just how Tampa Bay is going to use him, then this is the stuff. Taylor threw 78 innings in 38 games. His four starts were some of his shortest outings. It’s possible Taylor’s usage has been for developmental reasons, but we tend to think he’s being prepared for a fairly distinctive role.

Bichette has lost his prospect status.
Pearson is now the Jays top prospect.
Hatch enters the top MLB pipeline top 30.

Taylor is a reliever. He's also from BC.
The Rays have had him throwing every 3 days between 35 and 50 pitches.
Fastball has been between 93-97. Good slider.

Gonzalez is from Panama.
Kinda like the Pardinho situation, except he gets Rule V eligible one year earlier.
The numbers look very good, but there's not a lot of info on him.
He threw 62 innings.

Pardinho is 5-10 155lbs. They seems very comparable. Pardinho is rated high in the Jays system. Gonzalez is completely hidden in the Rays' system.

In 2012, he pitched for Panama in the World Little League tournament.
He led the tournament with 19 Ks.

It sounds like he has a good breaking ball and a good change but I have no idea how hard he throws.

Neither player appears on MLB.com's midseason update of Tampa's Top 30 prospects, nor Baseball America's (I'm not a subscriber, but I think I found the list elsewhere).

Looking at the Bisons' boxscore yesterday and noticed Ryan McBroom hit his 26th HR off Clayton Richard. Thought I'd check him out on FG and found out he has the 2nd highest wRC+ in the IL.

Guess Dayton Moore did the same thing, because he just traded a bunch of IFA pool money and a PTBNL or cash to the Yankees for McBroom.

Does anyone understand why ESPN's playoff predictions has NY Mets at 16.3% and Phillies at 2.5% even though the Phillies have one fewer losses and are half game up on the Mets?
Just curious. Seems wrong.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings

Strength of schedule? The Mets have a bunch of games left against Miami. All the other NL teams are close to .500.

Does anyone understand why ESPN's playoff predictions

Remainder of schedule opponents?

Remaining strength of schedule.
Mets .497
Phillies .530

Run differential
Mets +20
Phillies -17

Historically, only 4 teams have had winning streaks to climb up and make for 3+ games to earn a wild card in September.
That sounds more like the streaky Mets than the Phillies, so 2.5% seems right.

Fangraphs had Curtis Taylor 37 in the Rays system. Didn't see Gonzalez anywhere. Lack of scouting maybe?
He had never pitched above Rookie level before this year and he was only in short season ball.
I'm guessing he tops low 90s.

Possibly a result of the juiced ball. He wasn't good in the AFL last year.
He'll be 28 next year and could be a decent option if you want to have an extra platoon with the 26 roster.

Remaining strength of schedule.
Mets .497
Phillies .530

Run differential
Mets +20
Phillies -17
Yes , I thought this made some sense also -- but 650% better chances for a .33 difference in strength of schedule seems far too much even with a +47 better run differential. I mean maybe 200% better ...

I don't know if the run differential is something to factor in or not.
The Jays have a better RD than the White Sox and the Mariners.
Chicago still has to play Detroit and KC, but the Mariners is the worse team in their division.
I still wants to beat the Yankees, but not the Rays and the Red Sox.
The best case scenario is the Yankees don't play the wild card winners and Boston misses the playoffs by a couple of games.

These 2 new kids are interesting.

Career Taylor has 174 1/3 IP, 3.3 BB/9 vs 10.5 K/9 - but just 17 2/3 IP this season total of 78 IP in AA 3.6 BB/9 10.3 K/9 enters age 24 season next year so should be in AAA 18 career starts vs 65 relief appearances so I'd expect him in the pen. 7 saves in 15 games this year. Last pitched May 30th, his 2nd straight loss, 3rd game in a row allowing runs. Before that 3 game stretch he had 15 IP 7 H 2 R 1 ER 5 BB 15 K's. I suspect he got hurt and tried to hide it but the results (2 2/3 IP 7 H 7 R 5 ER 0 BB 1 SO) said he needed to get off the mound. He was on the IL to start the season, then put back on it after that last game. A Rays fan site has him ranked 32nd best prospect for the Rays - https://wanderrays.com/2019/01/tampa-bay-rays-top-50-prospects-no-32-curtis-taylor/. Seems he was once the Diamondbacks 10th best prospect (post 2016). That web site has video of him pitching too.

Edisson Gonzalez has career 158 2/3 IP 3.1 BB/9 10.6 K/9. 62 1/3 IP this season. 28 starts vs 12 relief appearances. His last 4 games were 5-6 IP each. 86 is his highest pitch count, 41 his lowest (game 1 of the season, otherwise 63). Clearly being groomed as a starter. In June he had a terrible time (4 IP 7 R/ER 3 BB 5 SO) but picked it up a lot after that (58 1/3 IP 10 BB 72 K's 1.54 ERA). He also pitched in the Little League World Series in 2012. Not finding much on him but he looks like a great prospect with his height being the thing held against him.

Drury again? In LF? Against Verlander? There’s really no way to defend that.

Yesterday's mention of the obscene amount of PA's given to Drury this year made me check FG. Only 2 players have hit worse with more PA's than Drury's 391 - Arcia and Odor. Kinda shocked that the worst hitter with 500+ PA's this year is Lorenzo Cain.

Fisher was a late scratch.

but 650% better chances for a .33 difference in strength of schedule seems far too much ... I mean maybe 200% better ...

I believe the methodology is Monte Carlo simulations rather than a probabilistic model. (Now, you might take exception with how they model the teams in question for their MC model.)

Drury instead of Hernandez and Fisher (McKinney getting to play today as well). Does seem odd. Fisher played against the LHP, Drury vs the RHP. Can't say our manager follows the book.

Also noticed Beau Taylor was called up to be the 3rd catcher for September. Nothing on the Jays site to say who was called up for September so far. Ryan Tepera back on the active roster. Clayton Richard sent to Buffalo for rehab (seems pointless, but whatever).

Fisher was a late scratch.

Bruised knee from that bat he snapped yesterday?

Fisher played against the LHP, Drury vs the RHP. Can't say our manager follows the book.

Or he's noticed that both players have reverse platoon splits, both this year and over their career to date. (Drury has a small reverse split, Fisher has a huge one. Fisher is positively helpless against RH pitching.)

I have something trivial.

Way back in 1969, 15 different pitchers won 20 games. In the same season. That's a lot of guys. It's also how many active pitchers have had a 20 win season in their careers.

Who are those guys? Obviously, we're watching one of them at this very moment, so who are the other 14?

Scherzer and Sabathia

I think Richard pitched yesterday. Why not?

Kershaw Kluber. I also guessed Greinke but he topped out at 19.

Keuchel, Happ

That's four! (Scherzer and Kershaw and one other guy have won 20 twice.)

That's six, plus Verlander.

Price with Tampa.
Porcello with Boston won 22.

Wainright and Price. Guessed Lester But he another 19 guy

Wainwright's the other guy to do it twice, Price and Porcello give us 10.

Fun fact. The other five guys have combined to go 17-19 this season.

Arrieta

Colon won 20 an 21 but he's not active this year.

Arrieta is one

Arrieta yes, and Colon doesn't count. Nevertheless, two of the guys have not started a game this year.

Ian Kennedy did it too.

Yes he did. I thought he'd be tricky!

Blake Snell won 21 last year.

Yeah, I was wondering when you'd get around to the guy who won the Cy Young way back... last year.

Just two left! One of whom makes his season debut next week.

Gio Gonzalez

Which leaves the guy coming back from Tommy John surgery next week.

Is Cueto active?

It's Cueto, he'll be back next week.

So - 50 years ago, fifteen 20 game winners in the same season. Now - fifteen 20 game winners in the same decade. (This involved ten seasons, going back to Sabathia in 2010.)

Game done changed.

What can I say. Verlander's pitching. Not a lot of action.

Happy for McBroom, who's headed straight to the Royals.  He was always an underdog favourite of mine, and yet another reminder that the 15th round is the sleeper sweet spot for our drafts. Despite his strongest season as a pro, the Yanks had another slugging AAAA 1B ahead of him in Mike Ford, but he could be in the bigs on and off with KC over the next few years.
Nice return for Sogard.  So far, the trade deadline returns are looking better than I expected, Fisher aside.  I continue not to see what the FO sees. 

Not a lot of action, but a lot of crowd noise for Godley pitching in the 7th.

I thought Giles wasn't going to pitch on consecutive days any more?

Congratulations Justin Verlander.

Going back to what was brought up in the Seattle series, the appreciative reaction of the crowd to Verlander has me feeling pretty good about the team's fans as a whole.

Bad fortune of seeing Verlander after he was ejected for arguing balls and strikes.
This should be a teachable moment.

Thumbs up for Edisson Gonzalez.

So... assorted Toronto pitchers have started roughly 2,400 games down at the Dome.

Justin Verlander has started 6 for the other side. Got beat once, too.

I think the Jays are now 1-6 in official no-hitters. Stieb vs Barker, Stewart, Ryan, Paxton & double-Verlander

Does a scouting report for Gonzalez exist? Strange that there is nothing out there about him (velocity, pitches, etc), because the numbers are very good.

After today he might not pitch on consecutive days the rest of the season. At least I hope not. Kid gloves for Giles for September I'd say - you want him healthy enough so you can trade him this offseason and you want his numbers to be as good as possible.

It's not very often anybody throws three no-hitters, and that's about the only time Larry Corcoran's name ever comes up. He's been gone a long, long time.

Larry Corcoran was a tiny (5'3) RH pitcher (though he was known to pitch LH on occasion.) He joined the Chicago White Stockings as 20 year old rookie in 1880 and went 43-14 in 60 starts, pitching 536.1 innings.

It was a different game, and the rules were in constant flux. Corcoran threw two of his no-hitters in 1882. It took seven balls to walk a batter. The pitching rubber was 50 feet from home plate. The pitcher was restricted to a below-the-waist motion, rather like modern fastball.

By 1884, almost all restrictions on the pitcher's motion had been eliminated and it now took six balls to issue a walk. And Corcoran threw his third no-hitter that year. It was his last good year. He went 35-23 for the Cubs, pitching 516.2 innings. He complained of a sore arm, but many observers thought he was simply trying to get out of his contact. He ended up being paid $2,100 in 1884, having threatened to hold out if he didn't get $4,000. The team had simply said "go ahead."

Corcoran was 25 years old by now, and pretty much done. Chicago cut him loose the following July, having found a new pitching phenom (John Clarkson.) Corcoran caught on with the Giants at the end of the season. They loaned him to Washington the following year, and he got into more games as a position player than on the mound. Washington released him in August 1886 and Corcoran resolved to become a LH pitcher. He signed with a Southern League team and made his last major league appearances with Indianapolis in 1887. He got hammered on the mound, and his habit of getting hammed off the mound was catching up with him. He signed with London of the International Association for 1888, was fined and suspended for being a drunk, and released before the season was over. He spent a couple of years as a minor league umpire before his health failed and he died, just 32 years old, of what was then known as Bright's Disease. It's an inflammation of the kidneys and it's still killing people today. They just call it nephritis now.

On the one hand, it's slightly irritating that Corcoran gets mentioned in the same breath as people like Koufax and Ryan and Verlander. His accomplishment doesn't resemble theirs in the slightest. But on the other hand - I'm rather glad he gets mentioned at all. He's been gone a long, long time.

I said "pitching rubber" above - force of habit. There was no pitching rubber until 1893, when it was placed at the current distance of 60.5 feet. Before that, the pitcher delivered the ball from the pitcher's box, which was 50 feet from home before 1893.

Hitters in Corcoran's day were allowed to request a high pitch or a low pitch.

They didn't get any of the guys I was suggesting for Sogard. I would say that Gonzalez is a nice pick up, better upside, but farther away. He struggled a bit last year with a K:BB ratio below 2:1, as he was walking about 5 per 9 innings, but he really turned that around this season, reducing the walk rate dramatically, and improving the K:BB ratio to roughly 6:1. Very nice season in ss A ball at age 19. His numbers are very similar to Kloffenstein's, at the same level. Gonzalez is about 10 months older.

Taylor has an elbow injury and might need TJ surgery, although the Jays think he will avoid that and be OK for spring training. It seems unusual that he started this season in AA after the good half season he had in AA last year, but that may have been related to his injury. If he's healthy, he should start next year in Buffalo, and have a shot at a spot in the Toronto bullpen during the season. Possible closer in the future. Nice return for Sogard, a bit more than I was expecting.

For 3 no-hitters I always think of Stieb. 3 times with 2 outs in the 9th (twice with 2 strikes on the hitter) and only on his 4th time did he get that final out. Two in a row to end a season, then mid-season the next year (88/89) before he finally got it in 1990. With a tiny bit of luck he could've been one of three with 4 no-hitters (Koufax & Ryan).

The Jays are close to catching the Expos in no-hitters total (for & against). 4 for the Expos (Stoneman twice, Charlie Lea, and Dennis Martinez perfect game), 4 against them - Dierker, Forsch, Greene, and Cone (perfect game). Of course you need to add Pedro Martinez perfect game over 9 (then gave up a hit in the 10th), and Mark Gardner's no hitter for 9, then gave up a hit in the 10th. David Palmer had a perfect game over 5 innings, then the game was rained out - an official game but doesn't count for no-hitters/perfect games. Pascual Perez also had a 5 inning rain shortened no-hitter.

So 4 real no-hitters and 4 that didn't count. 1 perfect game and 2 that didn't count. 4 against - none that didn't count. Total of 8 to 12 depending how you count it. The Jays have 7 total (1 for, 6 against including a perfect game) none that didn't count.

Wonder if the Astros would've let Verlander go to the 10th if they hadn't scored in the 9th.

Not sure what the elbow concern means for Taylor and the Rule V draft.
The Jays had Bryan Baker in a similar role this year, closing at New Hampshire and Buffalo.
Corey Copping, Bryan Baker and Jackson McClelland are all Rule V targets.

Taylor played in 15 games this year.
He mostly pitched the 9th inning in AA.
In his first outing he gave up 1 earned run on 3 hits.
Then he pitched in 12 games without an earned run, picking up 1 loss and 7 saves. He threw 2 innings twice.
On May 22 he was used as an opener and allowed 1 unearned run in 2 innings.
On May 25 he pitched 2 innings and gave up 1 run.
On May 28 he gave up 4 hits and 3 runs and could only get one out in the 9th.
On May 30 he had a similar outing giving up 2 hits and 3 runs, 2 earned, but only recording 1 out.
Then he was shut down.

I was expecting that they'll get a couple of arms like Taylor.
I'm surprised they got someone like Gonzalez.  Potential starters are always more valuable than relievers.

It's not unusual to have limited information on international pitchers.
These guys get scouted at 15 and signed at 16. They pitched in the DSL, the rookie leagues and then the real scouting happens at the A level. You should see something about Gonzalez over the winter.

Now, Pardinho got a lot more press as the best pitcher available in 2017 than Gonzalez received one year earlier.
Gonzales is from Panama, which isn't known for baseball and the Rays don't generate much press either.

Giles said that it's all about getting 3 outs with whatever he has working that day.
I would think he would like to go back on consecutive days, just like he can't sit too long between outings.

Gonzalez was throwing low 90s as a 16yr old.

Copping had a poor season, will be 26 in January, and is not going to get added to the 40 man or picked in the Rule 5. Baker has extremely poor control. He walked 37 in 51 innings last year and 36 in 54 innings this year. That's almost 7 per 9 innings. He's of no concern with regard to the rule 5. McClelland's control is much better than Baker's, but still iffy. He was decent in AA this year and not very good with Buffalo. He throws very hard, and somebody might take a chance on him, so he might get added to the 40 man. Depends on how many of their marginal guys currently on the 40 that they want to drop. Taylor will likely be protected - I can't imagine they would have traded for him if they weren't going to protect him. Counting free agents, I count 9 guys currently on the 40 man that can be pretty easily dropped, but one of them is Drury, with whom the team has a weird fixation.

They didn' t protect all the guys they traded for last year.
You can only have 14 guys on the 40 roster that are not on the big club and some of those have to be ready to replace an injured player.

There was nobody they traded for last year who was likely to be lost in the Rule 5 who went unprotected. Taylor is a pretty good prospect, and ready for AAA next year, so he could very well be picked up if not protected. Aside from the injured guys that still need to be added from the 60 day IL, there really aren't all that many guys who need to be added, maybe 4 or 5 - Zeuch and Kay for sure, Taylor, Hatch, maybe Wall or Dany Jimenez, plus Shoemaker, Luciano and Borucki on the 60 day IL. I'm assuming Travis won't be kept. There are lots of roster guys like Stewart, Adam, Davis, Drury, Maile, B. Taylor (the catcher), McKinney, Boshers, who are droppable, plus Smoak and Richard who are free agents.

Taylor won’t be protected. He’s hurt and there’s a chance he’ll need TJ. He might not be ready for spring even.

I don't even know if you can return a Rule V pick while he's on the IL.

Kay and Zeuch will be added soon and Luciano will come off the 60IL shortly.
That means they'll need to make room for 3 players this month.

They need to keep a catcher and an infielder on the 40 to cover for injuries.
That's Beau Taylor and possibly Santiago Espinal. They have too many outfielders to add Wall.
Espinal hit well, but he's older than Urena.

They'll have to keep at least a couple of spots for acquisitions. Probably a starting pitcher and a reliever.
They might just keep a borderline bullpen guy and release him in the fall if they find someone better.

Didn't they protect Merryweather after trading for him last year? Merryweather was injured as well, had a worse track record and is more than 3 years older than Taylor.

I would not be surprised if there is a rule about players like Merryweather. It could be something regarding what you can and cannot do to a player on the 60 day IL and also on the 40 man roster. Merryweather had that status with Cleveland.

I really don't know. But interested in knowing.

There is no IL in the offseason, so anybody currently on the 60 day has to be added to the 40 man for purposes of the rule 5 draft if you don't want to lose them. I would imagine the yes/no decision on adding Taylor will depend on how his medical reports look by the cutoff for the rule 5. At the time they acquired him, I saw a report that the Jays expect him to be ready for spring training.

Sure, but if you draft a guy who needs TJ, you 're going to have to pay him the full salary for all the time he's off and on rehab and then you still need to have him up 90 days in the big club or you have to offer him back.

I don't think you can return him while he's injured. Bergen had a long rehab before he was returned to the Jays.

This could easily cost a million or 2 once it's all said and done. And then the guy is close to arb.
GMs like to have bullpen guys who can be sent down. I think everyone will pass here.

The Rule 5 is in December and you don't have medical info to make decisions, just rumours.

Actually, I would expect the TJ decision on Taylor well before the rule 5. If he needs it, he's going to want to have it done ASAP.

A decision to avoid TJ is never final.
No surgery for now,  but that could change if there's any setback.