The Athletic has a story by John Lott on Joey Murray (subscription required). The article talks about Murray's success despite throwing his fastball at 90 mph. Murray puts a lot of backspin on the ball so it doesn't drop as much as normal fastballs. That helps hitters miss it.

Also just up at THe Athletic is Emily Walden covering 3 Lugnuts - Conine, Otto Lopez and hardly ever mentioned Marcus Winfield, oops no its Marcus Reyes.

One thing I am interested in is the health of our top ranked pitching prospects.

Pearson has thrown 90+ pitches in 3 of his last 4 outings. Zeuch has thrown 90+ pitches in all of his last 7 outings. The question is how well are they pitching in the late stages of the game. Velocity and break on the pitches.

I have definitely noticed them ramping up Pearson's pitch count lately. 100+ last night. 90+ the previous outing.

encouraging that they're doing the opposite of dialling him back this late in the season.

To follow up on Gerry's point, the Lott article on Joey Murray is fabulous.  He's got links to video of a very nice "rising" fastball and a sharp-breaking curve.  I'd love to see the change.  If he develops that, he's got that the Marco Estrada combination. 

Im am starting to envision younger pitchers like Pearson, Kloffenstein, Woods-Richardson, Pardinho and Williams as the future playoff starters and the MLB/AAA guys like Thorton, Waguespack, Diaz and Zeuch are more likely placeholders and eventual bullpen pieces.

" future playoff starters "

I like the sound of that!

Penultimate Prospect Snapshot

I don't include anyone I think is more than 1 year old for the level, unless they're dominating too much to ignore.

AAA (age appropriate = 23yrs)

1B Guerrero (20): 34pa, 11.8b%/5.9k%, .320bip/.367avg, .333iso, 186wrc+
DH Tellez (24): 109pa, 12.8b%/22.9k%, .435bip/.366avg, .323iso, 185wrc+
2B Biggio (24): 174pa, 19.5b%/16.1k%, .352bip/.312avg, .203iso, 152wrc+
OF McKinney (24): 154pa, 14.3b%/16.2k%, .307bip/.271avg, .217iso, 121wrc+
SS Bichette (21): 244pa, 7.8b%/19.7k%, .317bip/.275avg, .198iso, 102wrc+
CF Alford (24): 284pa, 9.5b%/28.9k%, .372bip/.266avg, .151iso, 97wrc+
3B Urena (23): 361pa, 5.3b%/21.1k%, .340bip/.276avg, .120iso, 78wrc+
C McGuire (24): 277pa, 9.0b%/15.9k%, .276bip/.247avg, .119iso, 72wrc+

RH Zeuch (23): 59.0ip, 12.2k%/11.1b%, .279bip, 4.42era, 5.25fip, 5.53xfip
RH R-Foley (23): 82.0ip, 25.3k%/16.5b%, .277bip, 6.26era, 5.53fip, 5.31xfip
LH Kay (24): 47.0ip, 20.4k%/10.4b%, .336bip, 5.36era, 5.87fip, 5.91xfip

All the good hitters are graduated now, and probably for good, so I guess these numbers don't mean much anymore. Of the guys left, Alford is kind of holding steady mediocre while old for the level. Still in play for a 4th OF future but more than that is looking doubtful now. But with his raw tools you never know. Good news is that the younger Urena seems to be showing signs of life - since all the graduations he's been moved up into the mid-top of the lineup and has started to hit a bit. He's always been young for his levels, so it would be nice if he could finish up strong to this his first age-appropriate year since....ever. I still think he has it in him to be a legit utility mlb piece and soon.

Pitching is so hard to judge this year in AAA with the new ball. Unfortunately there's no league-adjusted numbers like we have for the hitters with wRC+. It's hard to say that any of these guys have actually done well in AAA this year, but maybe with the adjustment to the league offense those numbers are actually closer to average than bad.

AA (22yrs)

OF Wall (23): 465pa, 10.5b%/23.4k%, .352bip/.273avg, .151iso, 130wrc+
OF Palacios (23): 278pa, 12.2b%/19.8k%, .333bip/.272avg, .132iso, 128wrc+
C Adams (23): 281pa, 9.3b%/31.7k%, .355bip/.248avg, .155iso, 118wrc+
SS Smith (22): 412pa, 6.8b%/32.0k%, .270bip/.211avg, .197iso, 96wrc+

SP Pearson (22): 62.2ip, 28.3k%/8.6b%, .250bip, 2.59era, 2.91fip, 3.13xfip
SP Murray (22): 25.0ip, 29.6k%/12.0b%, .328bip, 3.96era, 3.98fip, 3.29xfip
SP Perez (23): 105.1ip, 21.7k%/12.7b%, .357bip, 4.70era, 4.00fip, 4.13xfip
SP Diaz (22): 123.2ip, 18.6k%/9.4b%, .272bip, 4.00era, 4.27fip, 4.31xfip
SP Logue (23): 93.0ip, 18.1k%/7.1b%, .275bip, 4.26era, 4.64fip, 4.02xfip

The hitters are all doing just enough to stay relevant. This performance has still dropped Smith to borderline top-15 in the system, though. The other 3 have done well enough to all be in top-20 consideration depending on what things you like best.

I'm still waiting on Pearson to really hammer down at this level. He's obviously been very very good but not quite dominant yet. Murray's a fun prospect to watch. the numbers are there, and his slow spinny fastball will be a fascinating prospecting test. Perez and Diaz are both holding their own, at least enough for me to still be legit hopeful for good relievers, with an outside shot at starting.

A+ (21yrs)

C Kirk (20): 245pa, 13.5b%/11.4k%, .330bip/.293avg, .139iso, 149wrc+
2B Taylor (20): 322pa, 13.3b%/27.4k%, .301bip/.220avg, .148iso, 113wrc+
OF Young (21): 393pa, 6.4b%/23.2k%, .312bip/.246avg, .115iso, 99wrc+

SP Richardson (18): 13.2ip, 35.3k%/9.8b%, .185bip, 3.95era, 2.74fip, 2.77xfip
SP Castillo (20): 119.1ip, 22.0k%/5.6b%, .286bip, 2.72era, 3.20fip, 3.43xfip
SP Winckowski (21): 38.2ip, 18.2k%/8.2b%, .246bip, 2.56era, 3.84fip, 3.68xfip

Kirk's numbers really are great. Thankfully his power started to show as his babip dropped, though it would be nice to see more power still. But that's a flat out great line from an underage catcher in A+. Taylor is still having contact issues but everything else looks good, remembering he's still young for his level too. Chavez has recovered from a slow start but much like Smith most of the helium from last year's breakout is gone. Still looks like a prospect though.

SWR is pretty crazy. Castillo continues to look really damn good too. Winckowski just plain solid here, but solid at this age and level make him a legit prospect for sure imo.

A (20yrs)

1B Rodriguez (21): 23pa, 0.0b%/8.7k%, .524bip/.478avg, .304iso, 248wrc+
3B Groshans (19): 96pa, 13.5b%/21.9k%, .433bip/.337avg, .145iso, 166wrc+
OF Conine (21): 278pa, 9.0b%/38.1k%, .411bip/.281avg, .297iso, 164wrc+
C Moreno (19): 278pa, 6.5b%/10.4k%, .291bip/.294avg, .214iso, 144wrc+
IF Lopez (20): 415pa, 7.2b%/13.7k%, .352bip/.310avg, .088iso, 121wrc+
C Gold (21): 355pa, 6.8b%/20.3k%, .306bip/.251avg, .144iso, 106wrc+

SP Richardson (18): 78.1ip, 29.9k%/5.2b%, .356bip, 4.25era, 2.56fip, 2.29xfip
SP Pardinho (18): 33.2ip, 22.1k%/9.6b%, .304bip, 2.41era, 3.20fip, 3.67xfip

Fun to see Yorman up here now. Still old for his level but not that old, and he's off to a great start. Conine still with that bizarre line that will once again test the limits of prospecting. Moreno with a rock solid line with no real worry spots, which would be a good line for an age appropriate 1B, let alone a young for his level catcher. Lopez continues to be solid but man I wish he could start showing a little more pop. I don't know why I keep Gold around but his line seems to be just good enough to remain interesting as a catcher.

The pitchers are great.


A- (~20ish yrs)

SS Morris (20): 219pa, 16.4b%/20.5k%, .331bip/.256avg, .122iso, 126wrc+

SP Manoah (21): 9.0ip, 40.0k%/8.6b%, .267bip, 2.00era, 3.59fip, 2.85xfip
SP Kloffenstein (18): 51.1ip, 23.4k%, 9.6b%, .254bip, 2.45era, 3.79fip, 3.59xfip

Nothing spectacular from Morris but a legit solid line through and through. For comparison, this for me is a significantly better performance than Warmoth put in at this level out of the draft (similar overall but warmoth was much more babip dependant and had no walks), and Warmoth was a year older.

Manoah legit dominant which he has to be at this level at his age. Wouldn't mind seeing him get a looksee at a higher level. Kloff continues to steadily get better and better after a rough first couple outings and is now in the very good range, and closer to dominant over his recent outings, which is pretty great considering he's about 2yrs young for the level still.

Rk+ (19yrs)

SS Hiraldo (18): 211pa, 5.2%/13.7k%, .340bip/.311avg, .189iso, 129wrc+
SS Jimenez (18): 196pa, 7.7b%/18.9k%, .355bip/.282avg, .075iso, 100wrc+

Very nice performance from Hiraldo while young for the level, though maybe not quite dominant. Jimenez is hitting enough that if the reports on his glove are real than he looks like a real prospect too.

Rk (18yrs)

OF Brown (17): 63pa, 14.3b%/27.0k%, .357bip/.222avg, .133iso, 149wrc+
SS Martinez (17): 130pa, 6.9b%/19.2k%, .311bip/.261avg, .200iso, 121wrc+

RH Robberse (17): 10.0ip, 21.1k%/0.0b%, .310bip, 0.90era, 2.20fip, 2.77xfip
RH Dominguez (18): 18.0ip, 36.6k%/9.9b%, .270bip, 1.50era, 2.50fip, 2.27xfip
RH Williams (18): 8.0ip, 35.3k%/14.7b%, .188bip, 1.13era, 2.75fip, 3.21xfip

Nice start from Brown. Orelvis putting up a similar hitting performance as Hiraldo, and apparently he's better with the glove.

and Robberse is a nice addition to this group of pitchers, all off to great starts.

For years Urena has had fairly sizable splits, hitting RHP better than LHP, other than 2017 in AA where he didn't hit well against either. But this year, its massive.

vs RHP 306/341/442
vs LHP 198/240/275

His overall line is just 78 wRC+, but hitting from the left side he's almost league average, which is pretty good for a 23 yr old MI. Actually, there is one L/R split different from the rest - his MLB split where somehow he's hit much better from the right side than the left.

AA signed Y Diaz the same year that he signed Vlad. Diaz got a bonus of $1.6 mil I believe which is $100K more than E Pardinho's $1.5 mil signed by Tinnish. Both good signings. Both are progressing V well.

Please note I am not criticizing AA. He did sign Osuna and a few others that made it.

Tinnish and the FO are flooding the system with players. Everyone has a shot. Y Diaz has a powerful build now at 202lb compared to the 160 lb at his signing.

The strategy of flooding the system is working well. Especially at catcher. Next year P Clarke should share catching in Dunedin with G Moreno. Maybe Gold and Danner too. Danner got the big signing bonus.

some decent/good pitching Friday:

Kay AAA 5 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 2 ER
Romano AAA 1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K, 0 ER
Dillon AA 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 ER
D.Jimenez AA 1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K, 0 ER
R.Hernandez rookie+ 6 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 ER

In his last 3 starts, Kay has gone 16 IP , 9 hits, 4 ER, 11 BB, 22 Ks. Obviously, terrible control but he is looking more promising IMO. Lots of Ks and being hard to hit are things you can build on,

Correct me if I am wrong. This is the 1st year of the new AAA ball? My age is affecting my memory.

SRF gave up 2X the Hr and bb this year in AAA compared to last year in roughly the same number of innings.
Zeuch is another pitcher that you have to analyse. SSS but his bb rate is worse this year. He has a ground ball pitching style.

Buffalo is now 2 games behind. It's just as well to give Kay and Zeuch  the pennant race experience for the next couple of weeks.

The Railriders (Yankees affiliates) are 1-9 in their last 10.
Rochester (Twins) is one game behind Buffalo.
The Syracuse Mets are half a game behind Rochester.
The Iron Pigs (Phillies are 2 games below that and the Red Sox affiliates are 11.5 behind first place. Kinda fitting.

The Yankees pitchers are not handling the AAA ball any better.
Deivi Garcia has 6 HR in 6 starts.

Eric Longenhagen Fangraphs chat yesterday:

“2:31
Brendon: Does the industry view of Simeon Woods Richardson line up with his on field performance this year? Seems like his peripherals + age/level would indicate (on numbers alone) a top 100 arm. But is there concern he is physically maxed and maybe not all that projectable?
2:31
Eric A Longenhagen: you nailed it
2:31
Eric A Longenhagen: for me, anyway”

Espinal had 2 hits today and is now 9 for his last 26 (.346) with Buffalo, but no power, not many walks and is 0 for 2 stealing. Urena had his 4th 2-hit game in a row, to raise his average to .282, and his OPS to .721. That pretty good for a good fielding, 23 year old middle infielder in AAA. He's probably ready for a utility role in the big leagues next year.

He doesn't have to be "projectable" when he's already outpitching 21yr old top-25 prospects at the same level.

Agreed. "Projectable," seems absurd when the kid is utterly dominating.

That's actually a bit aggressive. But I like it.

Pearson to Buffalo.

That's actually a bit aggressive. But I like it.

Buffalo has a chance to win their division, so it's the perfect time to be aggressive.

Thankfully, the Rays' AAA team is in the South division.
That's a pretty tough division with Atlanta and the White Sox.

Cleveland has the only winning team in the west division.

Curious that the Pirates have a AAA team called the Indianapolis Indians.
I would have renamed that in a hurry.

With Alford and Pompey inured Forrest Wall joins Pearson on the plane to Buffalo.

What's wrong with Alford.

Travis Bergen is on waivers and could be coming back to the Jays if he goes unclaimed.

Think a few posters owe Mr. Atkins an apology.

Hatch with his best NH start. 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K.

Warmoth played CF with Wall promoted. Wasn't expecting that.

SWR had a decent outing in the nightcap for Dunedin, 1 run on 5 innings with 1 W and 3 Ks. Alejandro Kirk homered in the opener.

SWR might make my initial reactions to the trade look silly, as honestly he could make his major league debut at 20 years old.

Good game for Buchholz Sunday, with 7 K's and no walks.

Otto Lopez is on quite a streak. He's had 2 hits in 7 of his last 8 games, 15 for 37, and his slash line is up to .314/.364/.399/.763.

Ryan Gold is 7 for his last 20 with 2 HR's. 21 year old catcher with an OPS of .739 in A ball.

Cullen Large is 11 for his last 24, now hitting .297 with a .739 OPS since his promotion to AA.

Hatch has been getting better every game with NH, and now has a 19:2 K:BB ratio since being acquired. He likely goes to Buffalo next year.

Kirk has been on fire.  In his last 10 games, he's hitting .333 with 4 homers, 5 walks and only 1 K.  He's hitting .298/.399/.460 for the year in Dunedin.    In his minor league career, he has 585 PAs with 39 doubles, 2 triples, 17 homers, 85 walks and 57 strikeouts.  For a 20 year old catcher in the FSL that's awesome.   His wRC+ in Rookie ball, A and A+ the last two years are 160, 172 and 153. 

There are only 2 kids 20 or under in any of the 3 High A leagues with a wRC+ of 150 or better. Kirk and Wander Franco.

Zeuch has a no-hitter through four innings tonight, but only 1 K so far. Can he be successful at the major-league level? Time will tell.

No-hitter through 5.

His numbers have always been good.

I'm a believer that super elite groundball rate can overcome a pedestrian K rate. His K rate doesn't come from a lack of stuff I don't think.

Six innings and counting.

7 0 0 0 1 2 (92 pitches)

He may pitch the whole 9 innings with approx 115 pitches if he does not give up any hits.

Well, he's through 8 now with 101 pitches, so...

Awesome!

Congrats to TJ Zeuch, complete game no-hitter.

A great diving catch coming in by Davis with one out preserved it, and Zeuch finished it off with a grounder back to himself. 114 pitches, and apparently his fastball touched 94 in the 9th.

No hitter!!! All 9 innings. 114 pitches.

So, 114 piches, no hitter.

No hitters at any pro level are rare and remarkable. Moreno with another HR. On the flip side, Warmoth is who we thought he was:(

Yeah, really needs to be up in September.

Great Zeuch !!

Who threw the last no-hitter in the Jays system, including the parent club? Not a quiz, I have no clue.

One thing I’m happy about is that I’ve now confirmed that talking (or posting) about a no-no early in the game doesn’t jinx the pitching performance. So much for that superstition.

That's the change they made to the new ball, greenfrog - they replaced 76% of the jinx with schadenfreude, which has a tighter-wound core.

The lengths MLB will go to generate more profitable social media chatter!

When a pitcher goes with the initials T J for first name, he can't be worried about jinxes.

I googled it.

The last combined was Jordan Romano and the now-retired Josh DeGraaf in 2016 for Lansing. Kyle Drabek threw a 9 inning no-hitter for New Hampshire in 2010.

That's a great accomplishment for Zeuch. The opponent, Rochester had 6 guys in the batting order with an OPS of .810 or higher. A couple of days ago, Mike Green said Zeuch was about ready to be called up. OK, I agree, you were right, Mike. Be interesting to see if throwing that many pitches affects his next couple of starts. Maybe they give him an extra day off.

Zeuch wasn't the only starting prospect to shine Monday. Joey Murray pitched 5 2/3 innings after Zach Logue was used as a 2 inning opener for NH. Murray didn't allow a run, on 6 hits and he struck out 6. Interesting usage for Logue, who had been struggling as a starter lately. He was excellent in the new role, striking out 3 and not allowing a hit. I heard Vince Horsman, the NH pitching coach, on the radio recently, and when he talked about Murray, he was extremely positive about him, saying he had never seen a pitcher get so many swinging strikes on high fastballs without big velocity. Elite spin rate on Murray's 4 seamer.

How many big league starters are the Jays going to get from Borucki, Pearson, Zeuch, Kay, Reid-Foley, Merryweather, Waguespack, Murphy, Diaz, Murray, Woods Richardson, Perez, Hatch, Castillo, Winckowski, Manoah, Pardinho, Kloffenstein, Luciano and Williams - that's a lot of good to excellent prospects.

Luciano must be coming back soon. He has to have a certain number of days on the big league roster in order for the Jays to be able to keep him, right ?

Really nice list of SP prospects Dan Gordon. Michael Dominguez hopefully makes a case for himself next year.

Hagen Danner has not played since Aug 8. I wonder what is going on. Injury??

Luciano needs 2 weeks more in the majors. If he isn't healthy enough this year, he'll have to spend those 2 weeks on the roster at the start of next year before he stays a Jay and can be sent down.

No reason to keep him on the IL once September rosters expand, is there?

Improving infield defense would be a nice goal for the offseason. I don't get the impression that Atkins is in a hurry to move VGJ off of 3B. It would be nice if he could provide close to average defense there, and sample sizes are still too small to draw conclusions, but as each day goes by I think we all know where he is headed.

It is probably up to Kevin Smith to force the hand on the defensive lineup. I'm not sure I see a full-time defender that can otherwise force the move.

Vlad's weight is an issue. He acknowledged that early this year. Although it is troublesome he allowed his weight to become an issue in the 1st place. Let's see what he looks like when he reports next year. It will be telling.

Vlad is 20. 20 year olds improve their defense, sometimes substantially. We just don't see it because almost every 20 yr old is in the minors. Otto Lopez is an age appropriate prospect in Lansing. Otto Lopez is 5 months older than Vlad.

bpoz:

Danner was technically transferred to Vancouver but never played for them. He has been reactivated by the Lugnuts for todays game.

Thanks Gerry.