So...have we all decided we are okay with the Stroman deal now??

/ducks

Moreno's OPS is .880, #2JB.  Thanks always for these reports.

"So...have we all decided we are okay with the Stroman deal now??"

It seems like the only way to make good trades nowadays is to trade for a younger prospect before they breakout and/or target an undervalued player that another team has given up on and see if that player can be fixed. The Jays effectively did both this trade deadline with SWR and Fisher, respectively.

I still think the Jays should have gotten more for Stroman (Kay + SWR + something else), and I think they dealt for Fisher a little too early (in the off-season he may have been cheaper to acquire considering he would be out of options and the Astros don't need/want him), but Atkins went all in on what he felt was the best player(s) available to him. So far SWR is proving him to be prudent, but the usual risk with pitchers (especially pitchers that young) is still there.

I agree with all of that. My comment was more a little tongue in cheek.

I also think generally there's wisdom in waiting for snap judgments. I'm excited that my initial "ugh, that's it?" on the Stroman deal may have been a little hasty, and my own plan is to be a little more patient myself in landing on a hot take opinion.

Can't believe you negative nellies didn't like the stroman trade.

I liked the Stroman trade from the getgo. Marcus was not as highly valued throughout the industry as he was here. In addition, it seems no other team was prepared to give up prospects anywhere near as good as those surrendered by the Mets. Anthony Kay is going to be a surprise on the upside as well imo.

It seems, on another front, that the takes on the much maligned Happ trade, may have been a tad premature. bwar on Happ this season so far is 0.1 while for Drury it is 0.8. This is one to watch as it may be judged totally differently a year from now than it has been for the past 12 months.

Shi Davidi says Pardinho has gone on the IL in Lansing just to skip a start to give him some rest. The Jays are being careful with Pardinho after he had elbow soreness in the spring.

It's nice to see Mckinney and Tellez perform so well in AAA. The MLB experience has clearly made them better players. Hopefully they can stick next time they get called up.

Some sites have Drury and McKinney out-WARing Happ this season. The Jays have Drury for another 3 years, and Mckinney for another 5. I don't think Happ will provide the same value.

Solid Trade.

Fangraphs has Happ at 0.6 WAR and Drury at 0.3 WAR.

But some sites have Drury with more WAR.

Drury *should* have more WAR than Happ this year, as he is squarely in his prime (age 26), while Happ is almost 37 years old. Also, McKinney has been a negative WAR player this year, which offsets Drury's modest WAR total.

It is encouraging to see Drury doing better, though of course it has been only just over a month since his 14 wrc+ July and his 53 wrc+ June.

14 wrc+ June and 53 wrc+ May, that is.

Something I've been thinking about with WAR, is that it's failed to fairly assess utility players or players forced to play out of position (Pearce/ Rhys-Hoskins in LF), especially if they are a plus defender at a position they rarely play.

I'm guessing things will change somewhat with expanded rosters and new pitching rules next year, but I can still see utility guys having more value to a team's FO than WAR can pick up.

I agree that as teams shift players around some players are unfairly hampered by DRS and UZR. Positions in baseball are becoming less meaningful and the metrics still put players into silos.

To say the Happ trade was good because Drury has a 0.3 fWAR and 0.8 bWAR which are higher than Happ's WAR is very optimistic. The team just dumped an infielder in Galvis who had a 1.4 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR for literally nothing. Until Drury shows a little bit more he's not really that valuable, and doesn't even really look like a starting calibre player.

Until Drury shows a little bit more he's not really that valuable

See, that's kinda my point. Galvis as a DH would not have been anywhere close to the value he had as a SS.

Also, comparing Happ this year to Drury this year isn’t really the right comparison. The question is, was Drury (and McKinney) a good return for what Happ was at the trade deadline last year, that is, a starting pitcher who was having a good season and who was the best SP available on the market, albeit one who was coming off four poor starts.

The fact that Happ has regressed this year, after signing a new contract with New York for his age-36 and 37 seasons, isn’t really relevant in evaluating the trade.

Fangraphs has Happ at 0.6 WAR and Drury at 0.3 WAR

By definition, none of Happ's 2019 WAR should be counted in the trade analysis as he was a true rental. The Yankees let Happ go to true free agency and re-signed him Dec 17th. The Jays only traded two months of Happ, not his FA contract for 2019 and 2020

I was surprised Happ was worth 2.1 bWAR in 11 starts after the trade in 2018. I don't remember him being so valuable

The hard part of evaluating winners and losers in these trades is that WAR is not created equally. Happ's 2.1 bWAR was much more valuable to the Yankees than the same 11 starts on the Jays, but WAR doesn't capture the difference

Coke to greenfrog

It’s also arguable that, apart from their individual merits, Drury and McKinney were the wrong *category* of player for the rebuilding Jays to acquire. Arguably, it would have been better to target a young sub-top 100 prospect like SWR who would be cheap and entering his prime (or pre-prime) years when the team enters its next phase of contention.

I acknowledge that there is a possibility that Drury will have some value to the Jays (or to another team) over the next few years. But a breakout seems unlikely to me.

Looking at Happ last year for the Yankees. They finished with 100 wins and the top wildcard slot by 3 games over Oakland (still 8 back of the Sox, and 10 ahead of Tampa who was the best non-WC team). The Yankees won the Wild Card game without Happ being used. In the ALDS Happ only lasted 2 innings giving up 5 runs to Boston.

So the Yankees without Happ make it to the wildcard game regardless, maybe they lose home field advantage but no lock on that. Happ was worthless in the ALDS. That 2.1 bWAR seems high to me for 11 starts but regardless, it didn't change much of anything.

Meanwhile here we have Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney - Drury is really appearing to be something now but lots of * beside it due to his horrid start - games 1-100 for the Jays he hit 220/265/386. Since 281/313/547 which is OK for a 1B and very good for a backup 1B/3B/LF/RF but still not _that_ valuable.

McKinney since July 15th has hit 222/263/611 so power is there, before he hit 215/272/369 but limited to 1B/LF/RF so not as useful as Drury nor hitting as well. I'd give both as much time as possible until years end then keep whichever is doing best, while the other gets more AAA time or let go.

The deal won't end up being a difference maker for either team in the end imo. Unless Drury or McKinney really up it to another level.

"The question is, was Drury (and McKinney) a good return for what Happ was at the trade deadline last year, that is, a starting pitcher who was having a good season and who was the best SP available on the market, albeit one who was coming off four poor starts."

Right now Drury and Mckinney look like a solid return to me. Any prospect you get is just a lottery ticket. I'm looking at Drury as a lottery ticket who is showing signs that he might pay off.

Drury had his swing changed. Yankees have fixed more than a few hitters, Urshela this year being a prime example. Unfortunately for Drury, he couldn't stay healthy last year for the changes to take effect, and he was still trying to find his comfort level early on. Maybe his hitting TTL is his career numbers, his past year numbers or he's still evolving and we don't really know what it is.

Urshela this year being a prime example.

Not refuting anything you're saying, hypobole - just amazing that Urshela isn't even 20% of the list: Luke Voit, Urshela, Mike Tauchman, Aaron Hicks, Cameron Maybin, D.J. LeMahieu. Yankee Magic is disgustingly real. (Or it's just actual good coaching.)

That's not to mention the pitching where Domingo German, who wan't even sure to make the rotation until Severino's injury, has lowered his WHIP to 1.12 from last year's 1.35 and has an ERA of 4.05, while league average is 4.52.

Lots of intriguing lower level prospects right now.  17 year old OF Juan Pizarro has an OPS of .733, 23 SBs and has rotated through the three OF spots.  2nd star 2B Jose Rivas is at .818 as an 18 year old in the GCL,and injury-prone Jose Espada, a 5th rounder in 2015 is back in action in what has become a seriously injury-riddled career - he is still just shy of 200 pro innings.  Spencer Horwitz, a 1B picked in the 24th round this year, has to impress with the bat to have a future, and while his .124 ISO doesn't, his 10.2 K% sure does. 

I know both Urshela and Drury had swing changes. Some of the others, Voit and Tauchman in particular, may have just been guys their scouting dep't liked that weren't given an opportunity until they were acquired.

I say they're cheating.

Steinbrenneroids.

Conor Fisk had ten K's in his last start, unusual for him. He followed that up tonight with seven K's in six innings. Maybe he has found something different.

Man in White

Man in White Pinstripes.

Jordan Romano back pitching for Buffalo tonight.

Great to see Romano back. Hopefully, after a few appearances, he's back in Toronto. I was extremely impressed with him in the 2 games I saw him pitch.

This year's 34th round pick, Luis Quinones, has had quite the first pro season. He began in Bluefield, and in 2 games, 6 1/3 innings, he allowed only 1 hit and struck out 10, earning a quick move up to Vancouver, where he has yielded just 6 hits in 21 innings, with 31 strikeouts. His Vancouver ERA is 0.86, WHIP 0.76, and opponents are hitting .090 against him. Just turned 22 last month, so he's a bit old for this level, but still, that kind of total dominance is very encouraging to see.

Buchholz pitched 3 innings for the Gulf Coast team, and allowed only 1 hit, a HR, no walks and had 4 K's.

Pretty nice game for Thomas Hatch, his 2nd in a row for NH. In those 2 games, he has 2 walks and 11 strikeouts in 11 /3 innings. Kyle Johnston, on the other hand, has struggled badly since being acquired, walking 7 on Monday, to give him 13 in 12 1/3 innings with Dunedin. His control had been good with Potomac this season, so maybe not a big deal.

"It’s also arguable that, apart from their individual merits, Drury and McKinney were the wrong *category* of player for the rebuilding Jays to acquire. Arguably, it would have been better to target a young sub-top 100 prospect like SWR who would be cheap and entering his prime (or pre-prime) years when the team enters its next phase of contention."

There is no way in hell, teams were giving up someone like SWR for Happ. I didn't like the return at the time and still don't, but people are vastly overrating what his value was. His FIP in July was 5.16. Basically, he was amazing in April, decent in May, OK in June and terrible in July. His last 4 starts with the Jays, he pitched 17 innings, giving up 23 hits, 8 BB, 14 ER (and 5 unearned runs), and 24 Ks. You can look at Lance Lynn as a similar value traded and he fetched back Tyler Austin and an A ball pitcher with a 40 FV. Would the Jays have been better off going for that kind of value? Maybe, but there wasn't some stud prospect available for Happ anywhere.

not as good as SWR, sure, but they certainly could have targetted a 19yr old with more upside than drury/mckinney.

What is Mckinney/Drury's upside?

Best case scenario I think either can OPS .900+.

Not saying its going to happen but they have that potential.

Drury is highly unlikely to ever OPS .900 given his poor on-base percentage. He'd have to hit for a ton of power.

To be fair, If Drury played a season against only the Orioles, Tigers & Royals pitching staff, he might do it.

I agree its unlikely.

But after seeing Urshela and guys like Bautista I'm a little more careful when talking what the ceiling on a player is.

The odds of a 27 year old with 1500 MLB PAs with a career 88 wRC+ suddenly putting up .900 OPS seasons (without the aid of PEDs) are incredibly small. They aren’t zero, so I have no issue if they want to continue to give him ABs as the 24th or 25th roster member. However, they have prospects who can use ABs more usefully. I think 100 or 200 AB sample sizes sometimes confuse the issue.

To be fair, it's not just an OPS bet. They think Drury provides adequate defense, although it's clear that he's there to compete with Vladdy for the third base job. My conclusion is that he does not hit enough to be a regular thirdbaseman, but he's a cheap, controllable back up option there until something better pops up through the ranks.