The two things I’ve heard Atkins get authentically excited about are:

1. system depth
2. player years of control

Also: I’m very disappointed to see Stevenson traded. No idea if he will become a good major-league player, but I like the trajectory he’s on and his overachieving ways.

Ben Badler (easily the best of the BA crew) called the trade 'puzzling'.

You guys are lucky - I hate saying I told you so so I refuse to say I told you so now.

"uglyone - Wednesday, July 31 2019 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#378530)
I am now open for accepting all apologies."

Is that so?

Apparently "I Hate to say I told you so, but..." isn't just for bad sitcom writers anymore.

Well, the one meager bright side of this cruftacular deadline day are the interesting DFAs that seem to be popping up. I'd definitely be putting a claim in on Gohara, and De La Cruz could also merit a look if his stuff had bounced back.

Given this FO's tendencies, I am not surprised they acquired (and likely overpaid for) Derek Fisher. Average exit velocity has increased every year, up to 94.8 this year, and a high barrel % (12.8). They probably like him for the same reasons they like Grichuk, except Fisher actually draws walks, so if he ever does turn the corner offensively it might be more sustainable than Grichuk's profile.

With that said, I can't quite wrap my head around the trade itself. Sanchez has one more year of control. Biagini has three. Fisher was expendable and had no future with the Astros, and may have been running out of minor league options. The Astros should have been the team with the urgency to move, not the Jays. Adding Stevenson makes it worse. I'm not a fan of Sanchez or Biagini, and while I like Stevenson's minor league numbers I have no idea how that type of profile will translate as he moves up the ladder, but there was no reason to need all three just to get Fisher. It seems like Atkins targets a specific player and doesn't care about anything else.

I second the suggestion in the previous thread about Gohara. Exactly the type of pickup the Jays should be making.

Twins release Cody Allen, former Indians closer. He will surely be signed by the Jays.

The Fisher trade is perplexing but I do think Atkins is right about standing by independent evaluations of players. If the Jays people like Fisher and players like Kay and Woods-Richardson more than others then they may be able to acquire players they think will be very good. I can't imagine many thought Waguespack would actually pitch in the majors but he's contributing, at least in the short term.

As dan gordon suggested on the other thread and apparently Dan Shulman confirmed. The FO plans for Fisher to play CF. An idea that current teammates and every online prospect publication that I can find suggests is a bad idea. It really is like Groundhog Day with this FO and outfield defence.

BA called the deal “curious” and “puzzling” for the Jays. Setting aside what the Jays gave up in Biagini and Sanchez, BA notes that Stevenson may well prove to be better than Fisher in the long run. It’s a really strange trade for a rebuilding team.

I hope the FO knows something about Fisher that we don’t. I doubt it, though.

Fisher's out of options at the end of this year, too. So he has to stick with the club next year. Which, I suppose, is okay, because he's hitting at Triple-A this year (in his fourth year at the level).

I'm reading justifications for this deal online at places like Fangraphs and they simply don't make any sense (and that leaves aside the fact the Fangraphs one completely leaves Stevenson out of the analysis).

I'm trying to reconcile the first sentence with the second, "This trade makes sense for all involved. The Astros receive a high-upside arm to bolster their rotation and a solid, improved relief arm to provide value in the postseason, while the Blue Jays take a chance on a former prospect..."

I like updating our mlb last calendar year stats every once in a while, as well as all our (imo) top prospects performance this year - though i'm pretty stringent with the prospect qualifiers, and don't like to include anyone that is old for his level unless their performance is truly notable.

and I was looking forward to updating both lists after the deadline, but unfortunately the only guy that qualifies for either list is....SWR. Nobody else qualified for either the prospect list or the last-calendar year MLB stats list (well, Fisher's 65 mlb pa does qualify him for the AAA portion of the mlb list).

I just can't get very worked up about it. Two reasons, I guess. First, Sanchez and Biagini have been really, really lousy for most of the last two plus seasons. Actually getting a living human being with a pulse in exchange? Cool. Maybe he can help the team. If he can't?... well, as David Letterman once said when a joke fell flat "how much did you pay for these tickets?" So, c'est la guerre.

Atkins pretty clearly has complete confidence in his own judgement, the support of his boss, and doesn't give a damn what I think. And these are all good things, especially the last. You sure as hell wouldn't want me as the GM. (I sometimes think I need to say this next part very, very quietly, but - probably not any of you lot either!)

Look, I'm old. I've been watching Jays general managers - from Gillick to Ash to Ricciardi to Anthopoulos to Atkins - screw the pooch six ways from Sunday for my entire lengthy adult life. They all did really stupid things, every last one of them. Sometimes even I, who generally prefers to wait and see what happens, sometimes even I thought it was stupid in the moment and sometimes I was even right. This might turn out to be another stupid move - although we sure don't know that right now - but that's just the job. That's baseball. The future is unwritten, as my man Joe Strummer liked to say. Nobody knows anything. The Jays best move these last 20 years, if not ever, was the Robinzon Diaz trade. Go figure.

Heard a clip of Atkins talking about the Sanchez trade, and he pretty much said that Fisher is going to be their CF, that his age/control/left handedness matches up perfectly with their core of young position players, so it looks like next year, we'll have an outfield of Gurriel, Grichuk and Fisher, an infield of Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio and Tellez(?), Hernandez DH and Jansen catching, with Galvis, McKinney, Drury and Maile/McGuire also around for depth, occasional DH, pending any further moves in the offseason. Maybe Alford and/or Urena get another chance.

I'll say this about the trade - if Fisher doesn't turn out to be a plus player at the big league level, it's a terrible deal. This trade will speak volumes about whether this management group knows their stuff.

The two things I’ve heard Atkins get authentically excited about are:

1. system depth
There's trading for depth, and then there's being out of your depth....

Magpie, that’s a little nihilistic for me:) But I’m old too and I actually agree with most of that. If the deal were just for Sanchez and Biagini, I’d say it was a bad trade because it was so pointless. But I’d not be too fussed about it for all the reasons mentioned. I’d feel pretty much as you wrote. But they added a pretty good prospect (of a kind desperately in need). That could be a significant loss. All for someone, who if things break well for the Jays is Teoscar Hernandez. I like to see GMs risk doing something stupid where there’s a chance of looking smart as well.

Name the hitter, Socrates Brito or Derek Fisher?

X is still in Triple-A because of holes that have hampered him when he did get to the big leagues. X, who has rotated around all three outfield spots but is best suited in a corner defensively, has plus raw power. That's his best tool, with plenty of bat speed but swing-and-miss tendencies (especially against soft stuff) that have eaten away at his production when he has faced major league pitching. If X can improve his pitch recognition and make more contact, he could be a late developer, but for now it's hard to project him as a big league regular.

The quote is from BA and its about Derek Fisher.

"Name the hitter, Socrates Brito or Derek Fisher?"

Teoscar? McKinney? Drury? Hanson?

I will say - the fan base has sure turned on this front office in a big freaking hurry. Anthopoulos floundered for five years, doing stuff that (in my view) was clearly not going to work and didn't, but also doing stuff that (in my view) had a real good chance to work and still didn't. And no one called him Antho-poo-poo. Maybe it was the hometown thing.

Did AA turn an elite team into a 100 loss team by year 4? Without getting anything of consequence from the roster players he inherited?

Did AA turn an elite team into a 100 loss team by year 4?

Nah. He rode the Treadmill of Mediocrity instead. Didn't he inherit Roy Halladay?

I don’t think it’s a hometown thing. Fair or not, these are the facts: when Shapiro was hired in 2015 the team was in the midst of winning 93 games. Since then, 89, 76, 73 and 60(?). That breeds fan discontent. I’m not suggesting they are wholly responsible for that at all but that’s the context of their reign.

He inherited Roy's trade demand (to only one team), at least.

Yeah. This is a tear-down, which is new to our experience. And - what I think is by far the biggest mistake this front office has made - they waited a year too long. It should have started after 2017 and this should be Year 2. But there were still a couple big and difficult-to-move contracts (Tulo!) so he waited an extra year, and it was a year too long. At least Atkins didn't actually invest anything in 2018. In my mind, this is Year 1. Or maybe 1.5.

Shapiro took over a team with a one year (at best) window, made the right moves to get them to the playoffs (Estrada, Happ, and Liriano were crucial to the team making it), and then saw the window predictably close right after. What happened in 2017-19 was inevitable. Unfortunately they were not allowed to rebuild sooner, so they weren't as successful as they could have been in turning some of the departing vets into assets.

I think it's fair to criticize them on recent trades, but the team falling off after 2016 would have happened even if AA was here. This transition was difficult, made tougher by corporate ownership wanting to delay a rebuild until they had no choice, but they didn't double down on the existing roster after 2016 (good) and have set the team up nicely in terms of future flexibility. Selling in MLB is the hard part. Teams do not trade top prospects as frequently as they used to. Buying is actually easier, and the Jays having payroll flexibility and prospect depth is going to be critical in adding the necessary vets when the time comes.

The biggest test will be how their player development helps existing prospects and young talent in general. It is one thing to like Derek Fisher's tools, but can they turn him into something? So far that's been a mixed bag with Drury, Teoscar, and McKinney not impressing, but then Gurriel coming out of no where. They won't hit on everyone but the ones they do hit on have to be good. Gurriel is a good sign. They need more though.

Without getting anything of consequence from the roster players he inherited?

Sure, but I'm not sure there was all that much to be gotten. Who had trade value after 2016? The best players were old or injury-prone or both. There was Donaldson, certainly. There was Happ, Sanchez, and Osuna. (Stroman had just gone 9-10, 4.37.) I don't think ownership would have stood for that, and I think Atkins would have had trouble going out in public if he'd moved those guys after 2016.

A year later made more sense, but by then Sanchez and Donaldson had managed to reduce their value considerably and he decided to hope they'd bounce back instead. They didn't. So maybe after 2017 was when he should have moved Stroman and Osuna.

I expect next year the pitching could be a revolving door and the team record could be worse - for me, this FO has until 2021 for the team to show real progress - for now, I think the FO deserves to acquire the players they believe in, so I'm going to hope Derek Fisher becomes the player this FO envisages.

Jays have drawn over 3 million fans only twice since the 93 WS. That would be 2016 and 2017. I can't understand how anyone could think Rogers would give the go-ahead for a tear-down in the 2017 off-season. And no front office would tear down without ownership's approval.

For the record, nobody actually knows that ownership stepped in and blocked a rebuild. We just sorta keep saying it as if it must be true. Or want it to be true.

AA always said ownership never stopped him from doing anything.

Oh man. My comment was not directed at blame allocation. Merely at addressing Magpie’s question about why the fan base had turned on the FO. There’s blame aplenty to be laid at the feet of various places for the current state of the franchise.

It's certainly been an aggressive tear-down. Obviously there was no way they could move Russell Martin's contract. I assumed they'd let him play out the final season and mentor young Jansen. Instead, Atkins gave the Dodgers $16 million dollars just to get Martin out of the way and let Jansen share the job with Maile. Likewise, there was no moving Tulowitzki's contract and the team didn't mess around. They just cut him loose. It's startling how large a share of this year's payroll is devoted to long-term commitments assumed by Anthopoulos in year - four is it? - of the new regime.

For the record, nobody actually knows that ownership stepped in and blocked a rebuild [after 2017].

Agreed, and I hold Atkins responsible for not tearing it down then. I can see why he didn't, but it didn't work. And here we are.

You say that as if inheriting a whole two significant multiyear contracts is a worse situation than most new FOs inherit.

Fair enough. And Rogers can print their own money if they like. They never seem to like, but they do got the dough.

"AA always said ownership never stopped him from doing anything."

Was the term payroll parameters a figment of my imagination?

AA passed the hat around the clubhouse to sign Ervin Santana because he chose to?

Looking at that Martin contract in retrospect....5 x $16.4m....

4.3war
3.2war
2.2war
1.4war
0.6war...on pace for maybe 1war.

~12war total

Kinda followed the aging curve EXACTLY as expected. Pretty cool actually.

Less than $7m per WAR in the end. That's pretty tidy.

Absolutely, and in addition Martin would have been just fine this year backing up Jansen. Of course, having him around might have tempted the manager to have Jansen back up Martin.

I actually think 7-9 WAR players like Donaldson might be somewhat terrifying to Atkins. What do you do with such a player when they get expensive, demanding, loved by fans? It's much less threatening to have average-ish players around.

I can't help but think that Sanchez is gone partly because he didn't help the clubhouse chemistry. The worse he performed, the more alone he seemed. That being said, I hope he turns it around and I think he just might.

I'm wondering who's going to be on the active roster tomorrow. Buddy Boshers, LH reliever, came up from Buffalo to take Stroman's roster spot. Today they just moved three pitchers and received an outfielder. Thornton is listed as tomorrow's starter, so that would be another spot. Brock Stewart was just claimed on waivers from the Dodgers. Fisher goes on the major league roster right away?

This is Shelly Verougstraete (Rotographs):

Cal Stevenson – OF – Age: 22 ETA: 2021

In a deal to get Derek Fisher, the Astros somehow got Cal Stevenson thrown in the deal with Joe Biagini and Aaron Sanchez. Cal Stevenson was drafted by the Blue Jays last year in the tenth round and all he has done is hit. In every stop in his professional career, he has had double-digit walk rates and strikeout rates below 14%.

His highest SwStk% was 8.3% in six games last year in Rookie Ball. So far this year, Stevenson is slashing 0.298/0.388/0.393 with five home runs and eleven stolen bases. I am still in shock the Astros were able to pick up Stevenson along with Biagini and Sanchez. Stevenson is old for the level, he is 22 in A+, but he should move quickly through the Astros system. He should be added to your watch list in smaller AVG dynasty leagues he is must pickup in all OBP dynasty leagues.

"For the record, nobody actually knows that ownership stepped in and blocked a rebuild. We just sorta keep saying it as if it must be true. Or want it to be true."



These were two Shapiro quotes after the 2017 season:

1. “I’ve said all along, if we were just running our team without fans and it was an intellectual exercise, we probably would’ve hit a reset over a year ago,” he said. “I’m not denying where we are and what the strategic alternatives are, but the reality is that a very, very, very high price was paid to put a team on the field that our fans responded to in just an incredible way across an entire country.”

2. “As we deliberate on the different strategies and the different directions to go, we feel an obligation to try to field a contending, competitive team and at such a time we feel that is not possible, we will pivot,” Shapiro said. “Proactively pivoting, based upon the price paid and the way our fans have responded, that’s why we’re not doing that. That’s why we’re trying to remain competitive.”

That was clearly corporate speak to justify the decision to avoid a rebuild. He rebuilt multiple times in Cleveland, and has publicly discussed win curves before. He knew what was up. Now if you want to argue that he should be blamed for not being able to convince Rogers to rebuild sooner, then that's a different argument, but ultimately he works for them.

The interesting thing to me is how long it takes for Rogers to force the FO to put a winner on the field again after years of declining attendance. That's coming very soon, probably as early as post-2020 season, IMO.

Here's a question. Which of these outfielders will produce the most WAR from 2021-2026?

a) Randal Grichuk
b) Teoscar Hernandez
c) Derek Fisher
d) Billy McKinney
e) Cal Stevenson

I'm thinking there's a very good chance it will be Stevenson.

eh, you're reading into his quote there. maybe you're right, but maybe he was just talking out of both sides of his mouth and covering all his bases.

and I don't think much of the "they were too weak to convince rogers of their plan" inevitable conclusion, or the "they got hired by telling rogers what they wanted to hear, so why would they stop" likelihood.

I was kinda looking forward to seeing

Borucki
Reid-Foley
Pannone
Waguespack
Thornton

as a rotation, and I'm sure they were too, but now Borucki's out.

so who's the 5th starter now? gaviglio?

"we feel an obligation to try to field a contending, competitive team"

80-86 wins

I should have mentioned Edward Olivares as a contender for most WAR 2021-2026 as well. He's currently hitting .302/.368/.496 (139 wRC+) with 24 SB in AA for the Padres.

The smart organizations are essentially raiding the Jays farm system.

I think the most surprising thing in the immediate future is how little difference any of this is going to make. Yeah, two starting pitchers from the 2015-16 teams are gone, alas. But the Jays went 14-30 in games started by Stroman (8-13) and Sanchez (6-17). So instead of losing Stroman's starts 3-2, maybe they'll lose 4-2.

Or as Jeffrey Loria said after the fans ripped him for trading Buehrle, Reyes, and Johnson - "hey, we lost 93 games with those guys." (I think it was him, anyway.)

And then they went out and lost 100, of course.

There is plenty we know and plenty we don't know about Rogers, and in particular we don't know the specific marching orders, if any, this front office has received.

But let's assume for a moment that Rogers actively intervened after 2016 and ordered the front office not to blow up the team. There is no way, none at all, that Rogers next insisted that the "contend in '17" plan would be so half-assed, self-defeating and inept. That is surely on the front office.

Also on the front office: it is, of course, true that top prospects can flop, and non-prospects can emerge. But the Jays have traded for -- i.e., exchanged value for, rather than simply claim on a free flier -- an endless parade of players who are very, very unlikely to ever become even average major leaguers. Deep flaws. Modest tools. No pedigree. Not analytically successful in MLB or at their minor league level. Not young for their minor league level.

They deserve a lot of credit for drafting Bichette. As stated by others, the gulf in quality between pro and amateur scouting is incredible.

Olivares - young lottery ticket traded in exchange for....yangervis solarte.

How many years of control did Atkins gain trading Olivares for Solarte?

The smart organizations are essentially raiding the Jays farm system.

San Diego?

it was the surplus value of his options that they were after, iirc!

ended up having to pay him $5ish million for a negative war season.

this is getting awkward...

The Jays could have had a fast, young, talented, inexpensive, controllable outfield of Gurriel, Stevenson, Olivares in 2021, relying solely on their own prospects (assuming that they pan out; they may not).

"The smart organizations are essentially raiding the Jays farm system."

You forgot to mention the Orioles raiding the Jays system by stealing Dwight Smith Jr, and the Giants with Travis Bergen.

In all seriousness, Atkins has barely traded any prospects since he took over. Off the top of my head the only noticeable ones were Conner Greene, JB Woodman, DSJ, Olivares, and now Stevenson. Sure he missed the boat with Solarte, but in the other deals he got Grichuk, Diaz/Thornton, and international money. You win some, you lose some. Olivares was a lottery ticket that he may have undervalued, we will see, but no one is going to bat 1.000.

Not getting enough talent back for veterans is a legitimate gripe. Claiming they are being raided by other teams when you can count the number of prospects they have traded in four years on one hand is hyperbole.

Also Dwight Smith.

Edward Olivares has become the new Yan Gomes, without actually doing anything in the majors.

Just so it's clear to everyone:

he will fit in like a black player is supposed to do

is what Law thinks was meant by:

Sometimes players get real comfortable when they have been there a while and they think they are the veteran. I think when he gets into a group with deGrom and Syndergaard over there he will fit right in like he is supposed to do.

He might be right, I wouldn't know.

This was a bad trade but it doesn't change history. The idea that the Jays had some sort of elite team to build on when they took over is utter insanity. The team was built to implode after 2016 with literally no minor leaguers of any talent available for years. The front office has definitely made mistakes but there is nowhere else this team could be except in the middle of a rebuild. Fans have legitimate reasons for being annoyed but the usual complainers just can't accept this fact.

yeah so glad we didn't bother trying to win in 2017. would have set back our rebuild for years.

Apparently they could have moved Vlad for McCutchen. Maybe that would have been a good start. :Eyeroll:

They were a 76-86 team. How many contracts and trades would you have them make to boost that 14 wins? With Tulo, Martin, Bautista et all as part of your core, how long is that going to last? Pushing all-in for 2017 as opposed to trying to patch seems like a late-core Phillies plan.

Thoughts on overall trade deadline...

Something in baseball is broken. Teams are just not willing to give up prospects to a level that is absurd. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Cards are all serious contenders. None made any moves. Cashman gets a lot of love for building a great team but I think there's also a reason why the Yankees haven't won in a while. Trading Garcia for someone like Stroman or Bauer should have been a no brainer. Maybe he's a good pitcher, maybe a great one even but he also could be a middle reliever or get hurt and you need to win now. Hoarding assets makes sense at a certain point, but when you are a top team, you need to consolidate those assets and take risks. The prices for buyers were low. Every contender could have topped them. Also, trade deadline should be moved to August 15th I think. Still too many teams in the middle.

That might be so, but Fisher was mostly playing CF in AAA this year.
McKinney can't play CF. I'm not crazy about Grichuk playing CF either.
Bref gives him positive value for defense.
His OPS+ averages to 76 over 112 games and he still comes up on top with 0.6 WAR.

His defense is probably OK.

He might be, but I think it's meant about a #3 acting like an ace.

Houston emptied their farm and made great moves.
The Dodgers didn't do much because they didn't have to.
The Twins didn't do enough.

Several teams like Mets, Reds, Giants didn't now if they should sell or buy and did both or didn't sell the important pieces.

Baltimore didn't do great either because they could have moved Trey Mancini and Givens, but they can try again next year.

Detroit moved Castellanos and Shane Greene, but I'm not sure the return was that great.

I imagined Romano would be up after the deadline. Instead we have Buddy Bushers, a AAAA pitcher who was with the Twins at some point and who was signed out of the Mexican League by the Jays (I think).  He has a history of being good at AAA and bad in the majors.

Do we see one of Paulino or Zeuch grab the 5th rotation spot?
I guess Buchholz could come back at some point, but I don't like the idea.
What's the point if you can't trade him later?

I assume the plan with Brock Stewart is to pass him through waivers and leave him in Buffalo.

I also assume 7 outfielders is too many for the 40 roster.

Ross Atkins on the meaning of life.

Sanchez gets traded to a WS favourite, Stroman gets traded to the Mets - somebody must be pissed.

Leaving the Sogard trade out of the equation (I wouldn't have traded him for pennies on the dollar, because I think he had a role on this team going forward, but we'll see who the PTBNL are), I think the Jays made unnecessary and poor trades in the Stroman deal, the Phelps deal and the Sanchez-Biagini trade. The only trade this deadline I felt was fine was Hudson, as at the return is weak, but Hudson was a free agent at year''s end.

This front office appears to have also made poor trades in the Happ trade and the Donaldson trade. And, while Happ had lost some value in July 2018 and Donaldson obviously struggled with injuries in 2018, I think the Jays could have targetted a different return for Happ and given Donaldson a qualifying offer if they didn't get a good offer for him in 2018 (some people disagreed with me about that, but I felt that the Jays could fit Donaldson and Vlad into 3B/DH easily enough).

So, of the main assets Atkins has had to deal, I think he's made poor trades in the 1) Happ, 2) Donaldson, 3) Stroman and 4) Sanchez-Biagini deals. The only trade of a significant asset where I thought he did well was the Osuna deal, both in terms of getting rid of Osuna and getting a very reasonable return.

Atkins seems to have drafted well and made some good smaller deals, but this team's rebuild isn't going to hinge on whether Jacob Waguespeck can make a few solid emergency starts and serve as a middle reliever in 2021. And, at this point, I have no confidence in Atkins' ability to trade an asset of significant value. We can debate about whether Sanchez and Biagini had "significant value" or not, but I think the return was very poor for assets you don't have to trade, especially given they threw in a prospect for the privilege of acquiring Fisher.

The biggest contract signed by Atkins has been the Grichuk extension. Admittedly, we are in early days, but it's certainly not been a resounding success so far. With Grichuk cemented in the outfield and, presumably, Gurriel and Fisher in the other two spots left year, the Jays are essentially pushing Hernandez and McKinney to fourth outfield/DH duties and leaving Alford a big question mark still.

Atkins' media appearances are a disaster. While I think a portion of the fanbase was too quick to turn on him due to the perception he was Shaprio's lapdog and that they drove AA out of town, Atkins hasn't helped himself with his mealy-mouthed answers and comments such as "Vlad isn't a major leaguer" and "42 years of control." Whatever hole he was placed in at the beginning of his tenure, he's burrowed deeper into the hole rather than trying to claw his way out.

At this point, would you rather a faceless Assistant GM from Houston or Tampa or Los Angeles or Oakland run the next few years of this rebuild or would rather leave it with Atkins? I know how I'd answer this question.

What happened to Borucki?

That's a good summary Thomas.

I've tried to stay neutral for a couple of years on this FO but have really soured now. To me, Atkins is the reincarnation of Ash...good success in drafting, little in trading. On the other hand, I'm not sure JPR was good at either.

If anyone is interested, a paraphrasing of Keith Law's comments on Fisher:

Fisher could still end up a regular or quality fourth OF; has huge power and plus speed, and his pitch recognition issues have improved a little bit this year. Despite the speed, he's a poor defender and may end up having to play LF. Sanchez's value was at a low, but the Jays at least got a potential regular and likely fourth OF in return.

The last young position player who developed into an all-star for the Jays was Aaron Hill in 2009 (digression - there's a guy who would've benefitted immensely from the current rabbit ball). The last young starter the Jays developed into an all-star was Ricky Romero in 2011 (digression - how is that only 8 years ago?). The Jays hit gold with a few veterans since then, but the lack of young contributions is among the worst in the majors in the past 10-15 years.

The main thing this front office promised to do better when they started, as I remember it, was the whole player development area. I have no insight whatsoever into how they are attempting to accomplish this (more coaches? better coaches?), but I'd give them another two years to show their merit in that area. They've picked the guys they want at this point after two years of trades and signings.

Nothing is more important that developing star players quickly enough to benefit from several years of performance before free agency negates some of their value. If this front office thinks the guys they are picking up let them do that, well, it's put up or shut up time. Guerrero, Biggio, Bichette, Jansen, Gurriel, and the large pile of young-ish guys with replacement-level MLB track records. They need 2-3 stars from this group, along with 2-3 above-average regulars.

Oh, and a pitching staff. They'll probably need one of those at some point...

No they couldn't have won in 2017 with all the key injuries they suffered. But what hurts is they didn't even try.

And it's not like not trying in 2017 helped the rebuild, either.

Some of us said back then that having dead money on the books until 2021 wouldn't actually hurt the rebuild at all, and it looks like we were right.

Borucki did his normal pen session between starts and didn't feel good.
So, they decided to put him back on the IL. I haven't seen details about diagnostics (elbow inflammation?) or treatment.

"Some of us said back then that having dead money on the books until 2021 wouldn't actually hurt the rebuild at all, and it looks like we were right."

Ahhh, if only some front office would hire you!

Take out your anger on me. I can take it.

Maile should be gone by now. Waste of a 40 spot.
They need to trade Galvis over the winter. Maybe they get a little something.

Alford is out of option after this year. He's starting to look like a wasted asset.

For the rest I like having platoon bats on the bench. Catcher is good. Urena is good. Drury is... meh.
Fisher matches with Hernandez.

Fisher's career split are:
.179 .263 .349
.283 .348 .433

I would like it  if it wasn't a reverse split. Argh.

Thomas, your summary matches my thinking in many respects. However the strength of the amateur scouting is a pretty big offset to all of that. Given that the trade damage is now largely done and the state of the franchise, amateur scouting is probably the most important current job of the FO. My thinking is the same on Atkins and Montoyo. I don’t think you want them in charge when the team turns the corner but they may have some useful qualities for right now.

When are people going to accept that Alford is a failed prospect? Just because someone looks good doesn't mean he is going to work out.

Alford just isn't a major leaguer. (Hopefully Fisher is...)

Atkins that taken a lot of heat in the last few years. Some of that is unfair but I will try to not defend him any more.

Jeff Blair on primetime sports had Ned Colleti as a guest to discuss trading. I enjoyed listening. Baseball can be quite intellectual.

Ned Colleti:

1) Timing of a trade is not easy. There is a talent involved. Brian Sabean (SF) was V good at this.

2) Prospects are not ML players. They are prospects.

3) Regarding the many prospect lists: Some teams are close to the people making the list and as a result their prospects get a higher ranking. He said what is the difference between #50 and #70? #50 is a SS and #70 an OF. That means giving value to the defensive position I guess. He said that he has very little faith in the lists.

4) He was the GM of LAD and helped some other NL team also. He said Big Shot/ big payroll teams like LAD are obliged/expected to win all the time. Meaning very few/ no rebuilds. They have to trade accordingly. So they trade prospects for ML players. He did say that some prospects "you knew were going to be good" and he mentioned Vlad, Bo and Cavan B.

I cannot remember what else he said.

Some observations from media that I am adding to the conversation...all based on the general reaction from everyone asking "What are the Jays doing and how will they build this team properly?":


- Tim and Sid: One of the hosts made mention that Atkins and Shapiro have a track record of collection some players without pedigree that ended up developing into stars. Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger were used as examples. "Toronto fans haven't seen this front office do this yet."


- Ross Atkins: He also made mention of developing some of the returning players "without the pedigree" who could turn into good players ala deGrom who he referenced.


- Ben Nicholson Smith today on the radio shared his thoughts on the front office plan (his speculation):

* Front office wants to build insane depth and develop as many of them as they can so they have a very large prospect pool to trade from in the coming years to get pitching.

* Front office wants a very high pick this year to get SP

* Front office has a very good offensive core to work around

* He admitted his thoughts didn't amount to a solid plan for front office when prompted with the good question from Scott Mcarthur..."What if the offensive core isn't actually as good as they think? What if Gurriel doesn't maintain pace? What if Biggio is middling at best? What if Vladdy doesn't stick at 3rd, etc etc?"

*Ben Nicholson Smith also felt that the Jays could easily add free agents as long as they weren't SP who want nothing to do with Fenway and Yankee stadium.

* He concluded that he thinks the FO is trying to find or or 2 #1 or #2 starters from everyone they are acquiring.


My own thoughts on this...What if they want to get the high upside picks this year and save as much money as possible to reinvest next year on free agents?

Can a Beauxite make a payroll summary of what FO is on the hook for next year? I believe all of Tulo's contract was paid out this year.

Thanks Magpie for the historical perspective, I need someone to talk me out of chopping the head off the Ted Rogers statue right about now.   

Just like last year, we acquired prospects that now push other prospects aside in terms of opportunity - diminishing their value.  Less playing time for McKinney and Teoscar.  Pompey is more likely to leave as a minor league FA, Jonathan Davis, Anthony Alford and Socrates Brito - who isn't that much different from Fisher, as Gerry's post above illustrated - don't get another shot and Wall stays in AA.  Fisher has no options next year so we are committed to the guy, just like we are committed to Grichuk, for some reason. I know these guys are more likely Dwight Smith than Lourdes Gurriel, and I appreciate that in the Astros deal targeted a prospect that at least our FO sees as an upside type, but it really does seem like we are blocking the guys we previously acquired. 

I sincerely do not understand the apparent disregard for D being shown here either.  So many of our moves - like Fisher in CF - require our development team to do something it hasn't yet shown it can - refine mediocre players into good ones.
I'd be calling Atkins every chance I had to discuss trades if I was a GM.  Yes, we needed a rebuild.  But when the entire industry consensus is that you are getting less value back than others in trades, that means you're not the right person for that part of the job.  Jim Bowden (I know, but still) has the Jays as his only 'loser' from the trade deadline that was selling.  We are also on the loser list at the Ringer and the Score, and plenty of teams on the winners lists are there for beating us in trades.  Execs are using words like 'embarrasing', 'dogs&^%, puzzling, underwhelming.  Cathal Kelly (again, I know) talks about incompetence in the FO.  A player told Shi Davidi “Really? That’s it?” after the Astros deal.  

This underwhelming trade deadline is a genuine shame, because the product on the field with our young core should be fun to follow, and these moves leave a bad taste in a lot of mouths. 

According to Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/2020/), the Jays have just TWO players with guaranteed contracts for next year: Grichuk ($13M) and Gurriel ($2.9). They have a $5.5M option on Galvis and still owe Tulo $14M. Everyone else is either arb eligible or pre-arb (i.e. on MLB minimum contracts).

"when the entire industry consensus is that you are getting less value back than others in trades"

Do we really know the industry consensus? We just know what the media thinks, not what the people in baseball think.

Those are two very different industries.

Pubster, I and others have quoted multiple executives - who clearly have to remain nameless - all through this and other threads.  If you want to provide the contrarian point of view, I'd love to see a quote or two from execs defending the moves.
The third best prospect in all the deals we made is - Cal Stevenson.  That's the detail I find most frustrating. 

honestly i don't care about industry consensus any more than atkins does.

"I and others have quoted multiple executives"

A few quotes isn't how you get the consensus of an industry.

So the Jays rank 22nd in attendance at 21.1k per game. Pretty impressive given their place in the standings, tbh.

And I notice that they rank right alongside the Indians in 23rd - the indians being in a playoff spot, no less.

It seems like our FO should now be back in their comfort zone.

The deadline she has come and gone and the contrarian Pollyanna that I am - I stand (most likely alone) content.

I disagree with the Sanchez debacle in particular. The Stroman deal to some degree. So what. All baseball brain trusts were hired to be fired. The overwhelming majority of those who have a long career in baseball management have been banished in disgrace from several teams. IF I was a GM - I'd spend tons on the best scouts money can buy. Then trust them. Look at the big picture and get the pitcher THEY agree on. No guts, no glory.

IF I was CONTENT with the 42 years of control I just traded for over the 14 years of control I just lost - I would do the trade(s). That would be MY call. Live by the scouts assessments, die by the scouts assessments!

When I see Guerrero, Biggio, Bichette, Jansen, Gurriel on the field together playing with the glee of children in a newly found puddle in their sand box I get the chills. This core is WHY I love the game. Watching these guys grow in the minors is why I love this game.

LOOK AT OUR TOP 14 PROSPECTS TODAY (MLB PIPELINE): 13 of those 14 - to my diseased brain - look wonderful - spectacular even. Son-of-a-bitch good!

Pearson! Manoah! Pardinho! Woods-Richardson! Kloffenstein! Williams! All those guys Son-Of-A-Bitch GOOD!

Bichette! Groshans! Martinez! Moreno! Hiraldo! Kirk! (Kirk my baby Molina...sigh) and Smith!

This ain't no stinkin' half full glass - this is a two liter keg of 18 year old single malt!

Shapiro and Atkins will get fired. No question. But - if it was my job today to push that button - I wouldn't do it! These guys can play in the quick sand for another day if I'm callin' the shot.

Now - if the b*st*rds trade Kirk - then - all bets are off!!

though i guess when it comes to industry standards, there is something to be said about bargaining ability - where you should be able to get a price that matches industry standards while still sneaking in one of those hidden talents like SWR. consistently not matching industry standards maybe indicates poor dealmaking ability, at least.


more anon sources fwiw....


https://theathletic.com/1110160/2019/08/01/no-blockbuster-deal-but-twins-happy-to-bolster-bullpen-with-sam-dyson/

"Stroman was the first target and sources indicated the Twins were disappointed when Toronto didn’t give them a chance to match an offer they believed they could have outdone. The Blue Jays were rebuffed when they originally asked the Twins for either of their top prospects, Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, and never called back before accepting a deal for two New York Mets pitching prospects."

(for the record, i'm not sure i like kirilloff any better than SWR.....and while he's rated as super elite, i have to say Royce' performance so far hasn't really matched his ranking at all).

If Sanchez had remained a Jay he would he in our rotation for the rest of the year. If not traded in the off season, I believe he is back in our rotation. It is possible that he is the same here as he was the last 2 seasons. Becoming 2016 Sanchez by staying is a possibility.

Being with a strong Astro's club means that he does not make the rotation. He would have to earn it. Quite possible, "never say never". He could be a possible good setup or closer depending on Osuna etc... Next year he could earn and hold on to a rotation spot. His new V strong team has to change his spirit I believe. Human nature. Also a FA after 2020.

I don't expect Biagini to become a great pitcher but he should not be part of an over taxed pen there. So maybe he will become great.

Houston picked up Greinke as well. For 2020 and 2021 Greinke is 36 & 37. Verlander 37 & 38. Both are also very expensive. Great shots at becoming WS champs.

M Leake, T Roark traded, but neither that good. But you never know.

T Bauer is V good. Expensive next year I believe. Traded for 2 big bats. Cleveland's window is closing or being extended. They did what they could (big $ to EE) during the window. Bauer may help the Reds window.

Stroman traded by an aggressively rebuilding team to a team that hopes to contend.

Greinke, Bauer and Stroman are V good SPs but not equal in talent or cost. The trades brought back what their teams wanted I presume.

The Jays/Atkins values power a lot. In the off season/ST I will try to list 15 position players that could get a significant amount of playing time that all have power. Maybe 17 because 13 of 26 players will be position players. I probably will fail because the backup catcher, Bichette & Urena are not big power bats.

AS I mentioned earlier, I am giving this FO until the 2021 season to show progress towards a contending team (think 1983 Jays) - Except for Giles (next July), the selling is essentially done and since fans/media will blame the FO (correctly) if a contender doesn't eventually emerge, it's fine that they acquired the prospects they like and not the ones that fans/media like or are high on prospect list.

I may be on an island on this but before they become minor league free agents I'd like to see Wilmer Font, Socrate Brito and Dalton Pompey get an extended look.

I need someone to talk me out of chopping the head off the Ted Rogers statue right about now.

One of the things I like about this site is the humour. Keep it up guys. It reduces the sting.

Now that the deadline has passed, I'm personally going to move on from the perceived disappointment and focus on the a more positive thought.

The 2020 amateur draft is supposed to potentially rival the 2011 draft, and be one of the best in years. And the Jays will likely have a top 5 pick.

Of course the BPA mantra should be followed, fortunately the Jays 2 biggest areas of need (SP and CF) fill the top 10. Names to target for me would be Hancock, Ginn, Lacy (SP) and Crow-Armstrong, Crews, Mitchell (CF)

Jester00

Not just a Top 5 Pick.

A Top Five Pick for every one of the 30(ish) rounds!

I do think that both Sanchez & Biagini were (are?) non-tender candidates in the off-season. Sanchez may earn nearly $5M next season. Biagini around $2M. Most teams wouldn't balk at paying that on 1-year deal, but our current FO might have. Both of them have personality quirks which may have also factored into the decision to move them. I can see Sanchez re-inventing himself as a reliever, and it didn't seem like he was going to get that chance in Toronto.

My negative reaction to the Fisher move is also partly visceral to the type of prospect that Fisher is. Toolsy OF, lots of potential power, with no strike zone control and questionable defence. This FO has tried this play multiple times to no avail. Try something different.

Anyway, that's my last post on this and I too am going back to focusing on enjoying the games. And, as said above, there's a top 5 pick coming this year and likely next so there's that:)

Um, don't you think there's a selection bias in who will say anything, even off the record? I'd wager that unnamed individual would fit the following criteria:

a) safe in their job -- only 30 teams in the industry
b) have a strong negative opinion on the deals
c) unlikely to have a strong positive opinions deal (ever see an unnamed source gush about another team's deals?)
d) probably rebuffed by the Jays (e.g., Twins) and want to talk up their own prospects via knocking down the Jays' returns

...so... take all the unnamed sources with a grain of salt, wait to see how things develop, and if they don't work out, they don't work out.

A personal note: I was overly excited by the Dickey trade, his starts during his Cy Young year were appointment TV for me. That was easily the worst deal AA made. Reactions in the moment are not to be trusted. So it goes...

"I need someone to talk me out of chopping the head off the Ted Rogers statue right about now."

at least chop the Rogers name off the stadium.

Naming rights alone could pay for a good free agent salary.

but Rogers likes to use the jays for their own purposes.

"Sanchez may earn nearly $5M next season. "

gotta wonder how much a part Boras played in both them ditching sanchez and maybe more interestingly in Sanchez never moving (refusing?) to go to the bullpen.

I remember being super excited when the Jays made the trade with the Marlins to acquire Jose Reyes plus. By the end of the offseason the Jays were the World Series favourites.

The media was praising the Jays and the city was excited.

They finished the season with 74 wins, finished last place - 11 games behind the 4th place Orioles.

We have a nice core of position players playing at the ML level now. Good potential offense. Defense not so much.

We have many spare parts. Depth.

The pitching is "A work in progress???". As the deals were announced especially Sanchez/Biagini and also that Giles is not available for a little while Jeff Blair and his co host were asking "who will pitch for the rest of the year?". I really thought that was funny. I mean the tone in their voices.

I do realize and expect the pitching to cause a lot of misery.

I am quite interested in how playing time will be given to the huge number of OFs and pitchers.

"Stroman was the first target and sources indicated the Twins were disappointed when Toronto didn’t give them a chance to match an offer they believed they could have outdone. The Blue Jays were rebuffed when they originally asked the Twins for either of their top prospects, Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, and never called back before accepting a deal for two New York Mets pitching prospects."

That quote alone, if accurate, is all you need to know about how Atkins is not a good negotiator. What Atkins did was use the 'trade block' feature on a 2000's EA sports game, fielded some offers from the other AI, and then just chose the one he liked the best.

"I remember being super excited when the Jays made the trade with the Marlins to acquire Jose Reyes plus. By the end of the offseason the Jays were the World Series favourites. The media was praising the Jays and the city was excited. They finished the season with 74 wins, finished last place - 11 games behind the 4th place Orioles."

[The Dickey trade] was easily the worst deal AA made.

Maybe. Dickey wasn't what was expected/hoped for but he did provide a significant amount of value to teams that made the post-season. I think the trade that got the worst reviews at the time it was made might have been Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco.

I wonder how much the Chris Archer deal a year ago impacted the 2019 market. There were, as always, teams looking for starters - but no one wanted to be this year's version of the Pirates. (And with Archer turning to crap and Gerrit Cole turning into Verlander's evil twin, it seems as if a bit of the shine has fallen off the Hurdle-Searage pitching school.)

I always takes these quotes with a large grain of salt as they are usually about spin - maybe somebody from the Twins FO wanting to deflect criticism as to why the twins did't beat the Mets offer.

The point isn't not to try.

The point is that there is a difference between the way moves are perceived in the media and the way they play out.

I am quite interested in how playing time will be given to the huge number of OFs and pitchers.

No kidding. There does seem to be an enormous quantity of young and youngish pitchers and outfielders. It's as if the real idea is to throw all of these pieces against the wall and see what sticks. Essentially, hoping for some random luck that no one could see coming. Not Hernandez? Not McKinney? Maybe Fisher.

Of course random luck that no one could have foreseen was a huge part of the success of the 2015-16 teams. Lots of others, I suppose. It's probably a required ingredient.

I'm guessing Sanchez never actually was put in a position to refuse. He felt so strongly he was a starter the club probably never pushed it, similar to Osuna who didn't want to start.

I'm guessing he may be more accommodating in Houston, somewhat like Tulo who insisted he was a SS here, but told the Yankees he was willing to play elsewhere.

7 OFs on the 40 man roster. Add Pompey and S Brito. With the ML, AAA & AA there is enough playing time for all until the end of August.

A huge quantity of unproven pitchers. All would get playing time in ML, AAA and AA.Many of the AAA and AA pitchers are struggling. Struggling or a work in progress. This can cause many problems. 40 pitches in 1 inning and you have to pull the guy to save his arm. That is only 1 bad possible case. There are a few more I am sure. What ever they are I hope to handle it. Try to find it fascinating if it is youngish inexperienced pitchers rather that stop gap veterans.

Here’s another take on Fisher’s potential.

https://bluejaysnation.com/2019/08/01/what-the-blue-jays-have-in-derek-fisher/

I’m seeing different perspectives on his defensive ability so will be interesting to see how he performs, especially with more consistent playing time. Of course that’s predicated on Montoyo not playing mix and match when Gurriel is back.

I’d happily eat crow on this trade if he turns into something but we’ll see.

I'm guessing [Sanchez] may be more accommodating in Houston

I think they call it Reality Therapy. For now he may bump the rookie Jose Urquidy as the fifth starter behind Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Miley (whoa!). But Sanchez will have to deliver right away. Urquidy's last start was a stinker but the two before that were better than any start Sanchez has made all season.

I have a more immediate question: by my count, the 25-man roster is at 22 players.

Who is getting called up?

Very odd and fascinating Trade deadline. NYY and Boston did nothing.

We got to see re builders like Toronto and Detroit load up on youngish talent.

Houston and Cleveland make big trades to try to win it all.

The win curve has different strategies for different parts. I find that a fascinating discussion.

the 25-man roster is at 22 players.

Thornton is coming off the IL to start tonight. Fisher in the outfield? A pitcher to be named later?

bit of the shine has fallen off the Hurdle-Searage pitching school.

Searage exploited a market inefficiency by spotting and dramatically improving a few pitchers by properly aligning them to the plate. Other GM's went to their pitching coaches, slapped them upside the head and told them they better do that to any pitcher who needed it done to.

Market inefficiency gone.

There are still decent blue jays crowd in border stadiums.

Font has no options and will not clear waivers.
I don't know if there's a point in giving MLB ABs to Brito and Pompey.
Some value might still be rescued from Alford, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The idea is to stash depth at AAA so someone can get a shot if someone gets hurt--younger players are healthier this year--or struggle badly. Gurriel has won LF in my book. Hernandez has been hot in CF for over a month. Grichuk is on a contract and won't be demoted easily in RF. Pompey probably signs a minor league deal somewhere else over the winter. Not sure about Brito.

Fisher in the outfield?

McKinney now seems redundant. And Drury of course is superfluous. Maybe Glavis becomes a utility infielder (and of course DH!) for the season's latter third.

Longenhagen at FG ranking the prospects moved at the deadline.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-moved-during-the-2019-trade-deadline/

Hey buddy, I'm just doing my job. Disagree at your discretion.

It's pretty clear that the Yankees wanted to trade Frazier and maybe a minor prospect for a starting pitcher.
It's not clear at all what the Twins were willing to give. I don't really think the Jays were asking about a shortstop.

7 OFs on the 40 man roster. Add Pompey and S Brito. With the ML, AAA & AA there is enough playing time for all until the end of August.

Yeah, well, none of these guys are in AA and it's probably not an option to send any of those old guys there.

I like how longenhagen has already bumped SWR to the top of the 45fv and even given him the unusual 47fv grade, after reexmaining his work so far.

For me SWR is probably at least already a 50 (as Eric's grade upgrade hints at here), and may even be a 55. Strong work in A+ the rest of the way and i won't be surprised if that's where he ends up on off-season lists.

McKinney has another option. It's that depth they're talking about.

My rainy day fund has amazing depth in pennies and nickels. I'm still screwed if it rains:)

I'm still trying to digest the Fisher trade.
It's like it's 2 trades combined into one, kinda like mixing chilli and clam chowder.
Sanchez and Biagini as payroll dump and Stevenson for Fisher?

Also, there seems to be a tendency to try to sell high on hitting outfielders.
At the same time, the system seems to be full of outfielders who are struggling to get on base or have failed to hit at the major level.

Really can't have a DH next year, there will be too many players to rotate there.

For me SWR is probably at least already a 50

Somebody has a new crush.

The FO wants "waves of prospects". So the leading wave could be AAA/AA. Next wave A+/A-. Next SS.

There does seem to be a large quantity in the waves.

Catcher is strong. P Clarke in Vancouver looks good. Especially if he starts in Dunedin next year.

I don't see Sanchez and Biagini as payroll dumps at all but as clubhouse personality dumps. Remember Sanchez throwing teammates under the bus after one of his crappy starts. I believe he has likely been asked to go to pen and refused. Biagini is a flake who has not been pitching particularly well. Jays had to add a sweetener to get anyone to take them as they were perceived to have negative value. You can't expect Atkins to say that publicly or to reveal all the problems with Stroman. He has chosen to take the high road.

And here is another view on Sanchez....same conclusion, different reasons. Zwelling contends that as good as last start seemed, peripherals actually declined...mainly lost velocity from previous starts and it was necessary to add to get anyone to take him.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-moved-aaron-sanchezs-quest-2016-form/

Since when did being a flake become a problem?  Biagini is quite easy to like to me as a fan at least.

I keep hearing that some of the moves might be motivated by 'culture'.   Culture needs to be embodied throughout an organization - if the org wants 'good character' players, the FO needs to embody that as well, and clearly they don't - misrepresenting their interest in extending Stro, alienating vets, openly lying about Vlad not being MLB ready, dissing players with anonymous leaks, blaming fans for not rebuilding, not to mention the potential diversity issues alluded to in Ugly's post on Stroman.  Even the rationale Atkins gave to the media for not moving Sanchez to the pen - he was a long term veteran and it would be hard to ask him to make the move - smacks of BS.  Clubs do this all the time, especially when a player is about to set a franchise record for consecutive losses, and our FO clearly does not prioritize veterans.

Here's an idea for our brain trust - hire some women for the FO.  Some visible minorities.  Perhaps a Canadian.  Learn our national holidays.  Start some kind of charity.  Provide the fans with some sort of fun, free experience.  Cut the corporate speak that means nothing to 99% of the fanbase, and be at least a little bit honest in your comments to the press. Then talk about character. 

I don't blame UO for crushing on SWR. If you take away BA's love for toolsy under-performers, I would have put SWR as their #2 prospect pre-2019 draft. All his peripherals show someone who, performance depending, could end up our #2 pitching prospect too behind Pearson. And I say that as someone who loves Pardinho. I was ecstatic to see him in the trade, even if I didn't fully love the trade.

Even if it were true that Sanchez and Biagini were problem personalities (I doubt it), the team could simply have released them rather than give up a very interesting prospect in Stevenson who has been doing really, really well of late. It’s absurd for a rebuilding team to give up its better prospects so that other teams will take its still-decent and reasonably-priced veterans off its hands.

Since when did being a flake become a problem?

I agree. Don't think that had anything to do with Biagini being moved. Biagini did have some value. Not much, but some. And non-contenders moving unneeded relievers with any value has become de rigueur at the deadline.

Each waves does not have to be large. The key spots are shortstop and catcher. Once you have good players in Toronto, the guys in Buffalo have to really impress to force a promotion. On the pitching side, you can fill the Buffalo rotation and have a couple of guys in each other teams.

Heck, Kelekin, SWR is 4yrs younger than Pearson but only 2 levels behind him, and dominating just as much.

Actually he's now only one level behind him, though hasn't actually pitched there yet.

And he was only 20 picks lower, one draft later.

Since 2006, Age 18, A ball, min 10gs, with numbers anywhere close to SWR's, of guys who are no longer prospects:

Bumgarner: 24gs, 2.06fip, 2.75xfip - Ace
S.W.Richardson: 20gs, 2.55fip, 2.28xfip
(Syndergaard: 2gs, 2.03fip, 2.95xfip ----- Ace - only actually pitched 2 games in A as an 18yr old)
M.Perez: 14gs, 2.74fip, 2.88xfip ----- mid rotation
J.Lyles: 26gs, 2.70fip, 2.93xfip ------- bottom-rotation
M.Soroka: 24gs, 2.78fip, 3.21xfip ---- #1 already at age 21
T.Walker: 18gs, 2.86fip, 2.94xfip ----- Mid-rotation
R.Osuna: 10gs, 3.69fip, 2.73xfip ----- Ace closer
M.Banuelos: 19gs, 3.03fip, 3.38xfip -- Bust
J.Knapp: 17gs, 3.13fip, 3.39xfip ---- ace prospect that blew out his shoulder
T.Skaggs: 18gs, 3.51fip, 3.34xfip --- Mid-rotation


first thing you notice is that almost nobody does what SWR has already done. second thing you notice is that the success rate for guys who come anywhere remotely close to that kind of performance is almost 100%. Third thing you notice is that the only guys who legit put up similar numbers are both aces.

It turns out that the three added players are Thornton (obviously), Fisher (predictably), and Jason Adam.

Wait... who?

They keep McKinney? Weird. Gurriel day to day?

Well, unless one of the current relievers is going to start or open, there needs to be at least one more change soon.

Biagini always seemed dazed and confused when off the mound.
I find Vladdy and Bobo endearing. Cavan is way more mature.

Terrible double negative there. Don't not stop doing that.

As far as openly lying about Vlad being MLB ready, I think we've all seen him play 3rd base.

Do you really think that Vlad would've been down as long as he was if his service time wasn't a factor?

Even if it were true that Sanchez and Biagini were problem personalities (I doubt it), the team could simply have released them rather than give up a very interesting prospect in Stevenson who has been doing really, really well of late. It’s absurd for a rebuilding team to give up its better prospects so that other teams will take its still-decent and reasonably-priced veterans off its hands.
This times 100. I mean, was it THAT imperative that they be run out of town ASAP and yet seem like you were trying to get value for them, because you're insecure? I'm thinking Fisher for Stevenson (since Fisher is out of options) would have probably happened 1-for-1? I mean, why not just DFA them and keep Stevenson? I'm SURE both would have been claimed on waivers by 7 or 10 different teams.. The mind boggles.

Aaron Sanchez will get the start for the Astros on Saturday. 

Here's an idea for our brain trust - hire some women for the FO...

It's a good idea. As it happens, every team lists their front office personnel on their webpage. Unfortunately, every team does it differently. Even more unfortunately, none of them provide pictures of these people. It's extremely difficult to be sure who's a man and who isn't (there are lots of names that could go either way, and there are names from cultures I'm not all that familiar with.) When in doubt, I assumed the person was male. It's baseball.

I looked at the directories for three teams: Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Houston. The Blue Jays list about 369 people, and about 89 of them are women. Tampa Bay lists about 228 people, about 37 of them women. Houston lists about 277 people, about 53 of them are women. (I'm saying "about" because this is a manual count, folks.)

As I said, every team does this differently - I think the main reason the Jays overall number is so much larger is because they've listed all 75 scouts (all men, by the way) and Tampa and Houston didn't.

If it's Baseball Operations you care about: Toronto has 11 women in 78 jobs (plus the 75 male scouts), Tampa has 4 women in 70 jobs, Houston has 9 women in 42 jobs.

And again, all figures are approximate.

Hypo, sure, Vlad could get better at 3rd.  But they didn't leave him in Buffalo long enough to do that, and none of the moves they've been making indicate that they are all that concerned about D anyway - they'd rather have an elite bat at the key defensive positions.  My point is that there is just too much BS coming out of the FO for an org that continues to talk about the importance of character - it's transparently hypocritical. 

Magpie, thanks for the numbers on female employees in the FO.  We actually look pretty good compared to the other teams you mention.  In my post, I was thinking more about a high-profile FO add, someone in a key role.  The only thing I've completely agreed with that our FO has done this year is raise minor league pay.  I'd love it if the only non-American team was also objectively the most progressive.  I still find it cool to see Nikki Huffman in the dugout - although ironically, it was her relationship with Stro that apparently helped her land the job.

compared to the other teams you mention.

But there are 27 other teams, of course. I picked those two because I keep hearing how progressive Tampa Bay is - but that may only apply to the guy in the dugout. And Houston because they're looting and pillaging and destroying everything in their path. Their ways will be copied.

I don't get the just 42 people listed in Baseball Operations for Houston.

The recent trades may have an element of the FO trying to kiss up to ownership by reducing payroll as much as possible in the short-term (or longer). Look what good and efficient cost-cutters we are, finding all manner of innovative ways to reduce payroll!

The whole thing is really dismaying and off-putting.

Not denying a lot of the BS and those leaked comments on Stroman disgusted me whether they were or weren't racist.

But Vlad wasn't as major league ready even with the bat as most everyone outside the FO claimed. And both his defence and baserunning are pretty awful, which my foggy memory recalls as the excuse. And I'm not denying they manipulated his service time.

I wouldn’t blame Atkins for manipulating his service time. Virtually any GM would have done the same and spun it. Be crazy not to.

But Atkin’s verbal diarrhoea in general is atrocious and I virtually never listen to or read what he says. It’s all fluff. Reminds me of the old Rudy Gugliani clips they show in media training.

We've been here, but, much, much worse... the early JP days.

Yeah I wouldn’t argue with that. JP’s pic should show up if you google slimy.

A "deeper" look at Fisher: https://maxssportingstudio.com/2019/08/01/fishing-for-the-most-underrated-prospect-dealt-at-the-deadline/

Nice find Kelekin. Was looking at his plate discipline earlier today and this year was much better than I was led to believe. Last year was totally different and absolutely brutal.

Yeah, I have no problem with Fisher and I wasn't ready to assume he was an AAAA guy. I think it was a good article and I feel less terrible about Fisher himself. But the trade was still awful, to me. Could you imagine someone like Billy Beane throwing in Stevenson in a deal like this? The guy was #1 on Baseball America's list of late round sleeper prospects before the season began, had glowing scouting reports, and was at the position we most need a long-term solution for. He also can get on base, like a prototypical lead-off hitter should. But the front office seems to only care about bringing in players who can go yard, as if those are hard to find now.

Maybe not bringing up 19 year olds who still have lots to learn is service time manipulation.
Maybe that's a really stupid thing to focus on by the baseball media and the player union, who are often doing very poor work. That reminds me of Pierzynski bringing up the "Man in White" as an example of teams stealing signs on the road during a playoff games at Fenway. That was after he explained that there are so many ways to steal signs at home, on the road you have to be creative. I suppose those were road games to him.

Vlad got hurt last year and he got hurt in spring training.
They let him train for the home run Derby instead of focusing on the game and that was one of the best thing that happened to him.

My current CEO is an ex banker, because making money is the only thing that matters so who needs executives with knowledge of their industry. Atkins' s academic exposes are actually quite interesting if you take the time to understand what he's saying. Sure beats artificial motivational rah-rahs. Or hearing how hard he works.

I know this is going to make me sound like a Shapiro shill, but I am not completely getting all the angst here.

Bottom line is that there aren't any more Chapman for Torres or Miller for Frazier trades being made. Is anyone that excited with what the Indians got for Bauer? The Padres prospects they got seem middling to me at best (nothing better than a 50 FV), and in a playoff series I'd prefer Bauer to Stroman (and I cannot stand Bauer).

SWR seems as likely as anyone to be the best prospect traded at the deadline once it's all shook out. Kay will give meaningful innings. The guys we received for Sogard/Hudson are likely to be commensurate with what we gave up - if there is any possibility those guys are better than Sogard/Hudson, that's a real win.

The only trade that seemed weird to me initially was the Sanchez/Biagini one. I think we are still imagining Sanchez as the 2015 RP ace, and 2016 All Star. He just isn't that guy right now. I'd understand the argument for keeping him around and hoping he builds up more value, but that hasn't happened in 2.5 years. I think Fisher could be a piece if he gets some legitimate opportunity, and I'm not all that worried about Stevenson.