Sanchez is probably the top candidate of all time for your tandem starter idea. Assuming he doesn’t want to come out of the bullpen.

I wonder what kind of return Josh Donaldson would fetch at this year's trade deadline

It will be interesting to watch Waguespack and Thornton over the next year or so. Thornton has the single best weapon of the two pitchers with his high spin rate FB. But, all in all, Waguespack seems to have the better starters arsenal. I’d be surprised if either is a starter on the next competitive Jays team, but I like Waguespack’s chances slightly better.

Two base hit plus one more on the error.

That wasn’t real difficult. Even an old little league umpire knows that.

New strategy for outfielders. If the play at home is going to be close just bump the ball into the stands.

If the play at home is going to be close just bump the ball into the stands.

That's what I was thinking. Some bright guy will try it.

Curious to see if Sanchez can heck out a win from Undecided.

I always thought Jeter was a bit of a jerk despite the yankee fan fawning and for me this clinches it. Classless.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2846992-why-2-mlb-legends-may-boycott-derek-jeter-hof-induction-in-2020?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

Jeter has always been Mister Money. His principal residence is in Florida even though he barely spent any time there and had multi-million apartments in the Bronx. God Forbids he pays a 9% tax rate.

It looks like the Braves were never interested in Stroman. AA seems to be looking at Mike Minor and one of the Royals pitcher.

From the Cardinals, Junior Fernandez is a reliever, not enough to headline a deal. Dylan Carlson could be a decent right fielder, but that would be more a target for moving a hot Grichuk. I'd keep Stroman rather than trade him for a position player., unless we're talking about a top 25 prospect.

Spencer Howard is very intriguing. He was dominating in A+ ball. He debuted in AA yesterday and Ked 10 Fisher Cats in 4 and 2/3 innings. The scouting report says he has some control issues but he has 5 walks and 48 strike outs in A+ ball this year.

The two Dutch kids, Robberse and Casimiri pitched in GCL game today and neither gave up a hit, the former in 2 IP and the latter in 1 1/3. Dasan Brown had another hit.

Each of those Dutch pitchers is 17 years old. I wonder where and when we will see 21 year old Cuban signee Yosver Zulueta who is highly regarded in his homeland.

Maile injured, McGuire up.

@Ken_Rosenthal
One of many scenarios #Mets are exploring, per sources: Syndergaard to #Padres, then using some of return to land Stroman from #BlueJays. Not known which players would go from SD to NYM if deal occurred. RHP Cal Quantrill, a Canadian native, would be logical target for TOR.

Mets are so weird.

Followup from the previous Tweet:

@Ken_Rosenthal
In this scenario, #Mets would not simply add Stroman from #BlueJays. They would acquire pieces from #Padres as well. #Astros also mounting push for Stroman due to their reluctance to meet NYM’s price for Syndergaard. Other teams also in mix for Jays’ ace.

Axford pitched an inning the GCL game today.

Yeah, I keep trying to think how this works, and it just keeps looking weird. Mejia would have to go to the Mets, but they're not a contender this year. Are they honestly a contender next year? If not, what would this be for? Leave it to the Mets to figure out the Most Mets way to deal their best asset.

Maile to the IL with an oblique injury. McGuire called up. I suggested the Jays look at McGuire earlier this week so now they can.

Guerrero sure has difficulty seeing that curve ball. Just doesn’t seem to pick up spin. Wonder if Biggio could help him. Still don’t think he ever develops into a real high end major league hitter. Hope he learns to pick up on the curve ball but I’m also not sure that the visual acuity required is teachable.

Quite happy about this honestly. McGuire can't hit worse than Maile and half the pitchers are used to him anyway.

The Rays is the one team I don't want the Jays to beat, but that doesn't make it enjoyable to watch.

You can't teach maturity, but it shows up eventually.
It took guys like EE, Bautista and Smoak several years.
It's not something you can practice in the cage.
Sogard has a fantastic approach at the plate, yet it's all new to him.

I’d agree with that Scott. Smart hitters learn to consider the probability of what is coming and of its location. But hitters still have to very quickly discern whether their prediction was correct. No thinking allowed!

Sorry to see Maile injured. He’d be the best defensive catcher on several teams. Was hoping he’d be traded.

There was no interest for Maile. He's hitting worse than an average NL pitcher.
There might be some for Smoak. He could fit in Houston for either a minimal return or bundled as part of a package.

The Yankees are trying to get something for Frazier and the Padres are trying to move Urias, a bat first second baseman. Syndergaard to San Diego and some of the return sent back to Toronto for Stroman makes no sense to me. Syndergaard appears to be overshadowing Stroman on the trade market and D'arnaud is playing great for the Rays, just in case you still liked the Dickie trade.

I'm not sure what you mean by visual acuity in this context. That said, it may be that I teach optometry students is preventing me from grokking your intended meaning. In general ball players, even those with optical correction, will score better than "20/20" when tested.

Not sure I remember the sub tests and general categories of measurement but visual acuity was a nonmedical term we used to describe cognitive assessment results related intellectual testing. Mmmm! Could be wrong but we might have arrived at the intersection of Nature and Nurture.

Nice little late rally by the boys in blue.

Yes. Well worth watching.

20 year old has .750 OPS in first half season in MLB.

I'm encouraged.

Had 'em all the way.

Good game. Cash made some dubious moves with the pen,
Also, I kept thinking, Drake wasn't good enough for the Jays...

Astros and Dodgers are now in the Stroman market.
Interestingly, the idea for the Dodgers would be to move on of their starters to the pen.
They could be downright scary.
The Astros are given up on Syndergaard because the Mets price is too high.

Yanks go head to head with the sox and give up 13 runs per game heading into game 4 tomorrow.

That's gotta give them a bit of a sick feeling heading into the deadline.

The Jays had some bad luck early on this year, losing Shoemaker to injury after his strong start. But this season is no repeat of last year, when Happ stalled out a month or so before the deadline. This year the team has a number of valuable assets to move at the deadline: Stroman, Giles, Hudson, Phelps, Galvis, Sogard, Smoak. They could come away with a very good collection of prospects in exchange for that group.

Quantrill has had some struggles along the way. His career ERA and WHIP in the minors are 4.46 and 1.44. That includes pitching in some good hitters' leagues, although the San Antonio AA team plays in an extreme pitchers' park. His mlb numbers so far are better. Interestingly, he has extreme splits in the big leagues this year, holding RHB to an a BA of .179 and an OPS of .490. Lefties are hitting .292 against him with an OPS of .879. Teams must be stacking their lineups with lefties against him, as he has 127 plate appearances against him by lefties, compared to only 91 by righties. Very odd.

There's a report today that the Jays are interested in Edwin Diaz, possibly to flip him to the Braves. These Jays - Mets discussions seem very weird

Agree with greenfrog. Those players can have a useful role to a contender.

Their trading would free up playing time.

The return should bring back a few reasonable upside long shot, young prospects. Also we are running short of quality ML ready older prospects. 24-27 year old pitchers. The pen needs some not bad relievers.

Interesting bit of info from the recently promoted Yankees AAA catcher.
He said Devei Garcia hasn't figured out the AAA ball.

Yeah, maybe we won't see many pitchers jumping straight from AA to the majors with the ball not being the same.

All the news have become New York centric, so the craziest things about any Mets or Yankees player rise to the top instead of just being hand waived.

Sounds like a pretty amazing game to have watched, sorry I missed that comeback.
Interesting article in the star today about Stroman serving as a mentor and support to our rookie pitchers.
https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2019/07/27/why-the-next-wave-of-blue-jays-pitching-hopes-stroman-doesnt-get-traded.html
I do see him as a leader, and would be happy if this latest talk about an extension came to something, but it worries me that Stro himself says nobody has talked to him about one.  I wonder if the talk of extension is simply to get more leverage in trade talks, but without talking to Stro, it does feel insincere.
I don't know why I bother to read 'old man yelling at clouds' Doug Smith, but I was surprised to read how harshly he feels about Ross Atkins, who in his words today "has done nothing to make me think he could ever pull off a bold, franchise-changing deal that benefits his team. And after all the interviews I’ve seen him heard and do, I’ve come away thinking a variation of “this dude just doesn’t get it.”
pretty harsh words for a professional journalist. 

Atkins and Shapiro work together on player moves IMO. Beeston interfered very little. Beeston was active in payroll and Cito staying until the end of 2010. This is my view on Beeston.

Atkins/Shapiro made a very bold move by moving Tulo and Martin. More bold moves were made on player movement on and off the ML roster. I feel confident that this team will lose 93-98 games this year. The FO, coaching staff and fans are taking some big lumps.

The young position players either were slow to adjust to the Majors or quite fast (this is their 1st full season). Either opinion is not wrong IMO.

All the veteran pitchers that have been added are making less than $5 mil this year. Except for D Hudson they are all bad and/or hurt. The idea was to buy time for prospect development. A very good idea because the prospects have needed that time to try to get better or get healthy. Next year may be the same philosophy.

If Bautista and EE developed into stars late in their career as a Jays fan I have experienced this before (Henke) and expect to see it in the future.

Nobody is mentioning S Brito in Buffalo. I was very upset by his performance with the Jays this year especially the error in Boston when Sanchez had a good lead. We lost that game. But looking at him now I see good statistical performance. Has he learned to play in the field better? I don't know. He cannot repeat the Boston mistake again.

At age 26 he is in the Bautista/EE age bracket. So maybe he figures something out.

Sogard was in todays lineup but scratched just before the game. Its either an injury or a possible trade.

Sogaed trade imminent according to Morosi. Question is it by himself or in a package?

Who's this guy pitching for the Jays?

The Rays broadcast crew reports the last 27 batters have been retired. Perfect game...kinda for the Jays :)

6 straight Ks for Sanchez?  I'm gonna go listen to his game right now.

Sogard to Tampa... For Wander Franco I assume.

I would think its Wander Franco plus plus.

Tampa are loaded. I'm not expecting anything earth shattering, but when you trade in division, you're potentially trading for players who are well known by the minor league staff.

I wonder if we could get a guy like Linares. or if we're settling maybe i'd like Tobias Myers from them.

Hopefully Bichette is packing his bags for TO. Would love to see how he hits in the bigs.

I expect either Brent Honeywell or Shane Baz

cott Mitchell @ScottyMitchTSN
1m
#BlueJays are tentatively set to receive two PTBNL from the Rays in the Eric Sogard trade, per source, but details are still being finalized

Bichette is slumping. Urena may be the call up.

Gibaut was DFA'd Tuesday and was drawing trade interest.

40 FV guy rated at TB's 32 per FG.

Gibaut to the rangers. Thank God.

A 25yr old reliever would have driven me nuts.

on Heyman @JonHeyman
2m
Yankees are willing to trade Clint Frazier and/or Miguel Andujar for starter they need. Deivi Cruz seems to be off limits, except for Syndergaard (which is 1,000 to 1 shot to happen for other reasons; borough rivalry)


Who's gonna blink first?

As the founding member of the Box's Eric Sogard fan club, from back when he first joined the organization and even from his days in Oakland, I am underwhelmed by this return.

However, I'm happy Sogard will get play meaningful baseball the rest of the year.

I am underwhelmed by this return.

What is the return?

"Deivi Cruz seems to be off limits.."

Only the Yankees could make a 46 yo retired SS a centrepiece of a trade.

Gurriel now tied for 2nd most OF assists in mlb, despite only playing 53gms in the OF.

You'd think they'll stop running soon.

0 walks and 10 strikeouts for Sanchez.

What is going on.

Pitching to get out of town?

McKinney deserved that HR after the specious 3rd strike call the ump rung him up with his last PA.

I absolutely think Sanchez wants out.  Good time to get hot. Hope there's a reasonable offer

Sanchez' ERA goes from 6.06 to 6.07 after today.

Sanchez very much wants to remain a starter. How many teams would have given him to rope to continue starting the way Toronto has? If he goes elsewhere chances reasonable he could well be bullpen bound.

Go vladdy go

I want the team to move Gurriel over to right field with his cannon of an arm. Grichuk can slot in at CF and we can end the Teoscar in CF project.

Still want to see gurriel in CF once he gets used to the OF. He has to have the most range out there.

On another note, I'm surprised we haven't heard any rumblings about Phelps. He has the best track record of our RP, seems to be all the way back now, and has another year of control.

I agree we should at least try him in CF, but Grichuk has better sprint speed and reaction times than Gurriel in the OF. I don’t think Grichuk is a good CFer, but he seems to have a bit more athleticism and a lot more experience.

The return for Sogard is likely to be reliever prospects from high in the system or projects from A ball.

In these trades the Jays have to consider their 40 man roster this off-season. It makes no sense to acquire a marginal player that needs to be protected so you lose an equivalent player in the rule 5 draft.

Szymborski (Fangraphs):

"The cost for adding Sogard is likely to be a minimal one. While there have been conflicting rumor-inations about the players in return, it strikes me that no matter who’s ultimately identified, it’s likely that we’re talking low-level organizational players. If there were prospects of significance involved, I suspect the Rays would have considered promoting Wong more seriously."

Mandy Bell @MandyBell02
Never seen that before. Trevor Bauer gave up two runs and chucked the ball into the netting behind home plate out of anger after the play. Terry Francona then came out to get him and before he left, he launched the ball over the center field wall from the mound.

Can't be good for his trade value.

Hmm shoeless my impression was that gurriel had Grichuk beat on the speed and athleticism but if there's some evidence otherwise that changes things.

Gerry - Myers counts as an A-ball project maybe? Maybe Linares turns into one of he's having TJ?

Sorry, mr.phelps. my bad.

I am in favour of changing the narrative for today. Another 10-9 comeback victory would be boring.

Baseball savant has Grichuk with a 28.1 ft/second sprint speed and Gurriel with 27.6 ft/second. Not that I guess that means much Brito and Teoscar are burnings by that metrics but not much in the middle of the outfield.

I agree that the likely return for Sogard will be minimal- but let’s wait. If it is, I will ask what is the point?

Not often pitchers give up 10 runs in 9 innings when also throwing 17 SO’s.

They needed Sogard's spot for Bichette.
Let's see, the Twins just got Sergio Romo for a pitcher at the end of their top 30 and possibly somebody else later...
Boston got Cashner for 2 Dominicans kids who would still be in high school.

Realistically, the Jays might get a bullpen prospect with one good pitch, somebody that Tampa didn't want to protect in the Rule V draft or a prospect in A ball. That kind of return.

It's worth getting a ship load of guys like this now and figuring out what the do with them later.
It's a reward for Sogard who potentially gets to play in October which means extra money for him.
Also, just helping the Rays win and taking something out of their system are also small victories.

Stroman going to Mets apparently. Very strange. Let’s see what comes next.

Mets don’t have a good system. They have some good youngish players though. Who knows? Maybe Edwin Diaz to be flipped somewhere for pre arranged prospects Jays like better?

There are no enviable prospects in the Mets system so I hope it's Edwin Diaz to flip elsewhere... but I question how the Jays front office can't get a good prospect return for Stroman...

Bichette and SRF pulled from the Bisons game.

If the return is Diaz, I imagine they would package him in a deal with Giles for top prospects. Those are the 2 best RPs on the market at the moment. Gavin Lux from the Dodgers plus Keibert Ruiz?

Why can’t the Mets get good young prospects for Diaz? They’re looking for the same things the Jays are.

Mark Feisand of MLB.com is reporting the return is "pitching prospects".

Who is that going to be? Kay and Woods Richardson?

If this is accurate, this doesn't look good. The Mets don't have any pitching prospects considered to be Top 100 prospects (I stand to be corrected by Marc).

Ronny Mauricio is on the rise and #28 per FG Top Prospects list. On the other hand, both he and Gimenez (#51) are SS's.

If it is pitching prospects and there isn't a 3rd team involved, then this could potentially be really bad. The Mets farm is not very good.

I would take Thomas Szapucki (injury prone) as part of the deal along with Simeon Woods-Richardson - I think Szapucki if healthy will be a fast mover.

I don't get hung up about top 100 list - it's what the FO & their scouting staff like - only time will tell.

The Mets have zero Top 100 pitching prospects. Zero. Simeon Woods-Richardson is the only interesting arm.

The Jays failed to acquire a top 30, 50, 75 or even 100 prospect, if reports are true. And could have kept working on a deal for 3 days... I don't get it.

Scott - if the point of trading Sogard was just to open a spot for Bichette then it really was Galvis that they should have moved. More importantly, the FO clearly think super utility players are valuable (they’ve tried to turn half the current roster into utility players) -Sogard was someone who appears to be able to do it successfully (plus he’s LH and can get on base - both useful to the current roster). If they got a useful return then ok but if they just gave him away to open a roster spot then I won’t see the point. Sogard isn’t likely to be a huge asset going forward but he could be a useful bench player for this team over the next year or two.

#BlueJays getting Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson for Stroman, sources tell The Athletic.

Sogard is 33 and a free agent after the year and Ashly having the best season of his career, of course you trade him.

Sogard will be a FA and based on his play this year and Jays having BO/Cavan , I'd expect another team to offer Sogard a better opportunity.

It’s not of course to me. I’d have tried to sign him.

This is quite confusing. Maybe they are going for quantity.
The Mets have a pitcher named Kevin Smith in AA. That would be a confusing piece to get.

Funny deal for me.

SMR is my kind of prospect.

Kay is not.

Dissappointing deal for sure though.

Sogard has put up 2.5 WAR in the past three years over 700 PAs even accounting for his horrific 2018. That seems like a useful player to have around.

Deal definitely feels light and my biggest issue here is...why not wit a couple of days and maybe somebody caves. If this is the best you get, ok, make the deal, but this isn’t a return you nee d to jump on by any means,

Some weird stuff going on in the clubhouse apparently.

The Jays should never have settled for that return three days before the trade deadline.

If Sogard was 23, you would extend him, but he's 33.
Once the core has arrived and starts producing, you don't need vets to be role players.
Drury and Urena are the utility guys next year.

Yelling in the clubhouse? Duncan fired?

Or is this BS?

Yeah. Feels light. Maybe there's a 3rd piece?

Sogard has been a significantly better player than Drury the past three years. Anyway, maybe the return will be ok.

Was likely far better than any other offers. How can one criticize when they don't know what is on the table. Very much doubt any other team willing to trade #4 and 6 prospects, both pitchers. After reading their summaries on BA and Pipeline, it looks like a good deal, and more than fair value, to me. Remember that Stro is not as highly regarded in baseball generally as he is here and does come with some baggage.

4 and 6 prospects from a poopy system is a bad return, any way you slice it.

Ok, I like Woods Richardson, and Kay is alright, but this does feel very damned light. Not the dumpster fire the Happ deal was, but at this point, I'm now joining the camp that doesn't let Atkins make any more deals.

Will note that Simeon Woods-Richardson numbers in A ball compares well with Syndergaard numbers when he was traded for Dickey and Woods I believe was over a year younger.

It's not great, but it's better than sending him to the Yankees for Clint Frazier.

Still got Hudson, Giles and possibly Smoak and Galvis.

Although, I don't mind having Galvis around for the rest of the year working with Bichette.

Feels light for 1.5 years of Stroman. But then again maybe this really was the best offer out there. Teams don't want to trade their really good prospects nowadays.

I would have tried to get an extension done.

Prospects Live has placed the newcomers at 4 and 7 in Jays system. Simeon is 4 and Anthony 7.

Giles was not ready to pitch today after throwing 10 pitches yesterday......might not get traded.

ERA FIP xFIP
SRF (23) AAA. 6.33 5.57 5.33
Kay (24) AAA. 6.61 6.23 6.20

Kay at 7 is silly.

But SWR in the top 5 isn't crazy.

Would have thought the Jays could have attained an excellent prospect closer to the majors.

The odds of the Jays getting another top 5 pick in the 2021 draft have gone up considerably today.

I'm also not a fan of this deal.

That is definitely a light return. The best part of the trade is by far SWR, who could rise up prospect rankings as early as next year if he keeps this performance up, but Kay as the main piece is very underwhelming. I just can't wrap my head around why they did this deal three days before the deadline. What was the rush?

You never know with prospects who is going to be successful. One thing for sure, with the addition of Richardson, the Jays have a decent collection of power arms in their farm system.

I do have to admit that the more I look at SWR the more I like him. I don't agree with the 45fv on fangraphs at all.

He's the same age and level as Pardinho and putting up better numbers (with the caveat that Pardinho is coming back from injury and hopefully will end up with better numbers than he has now), and has 2 likely plus pitches. He'll need a 3rd pitch but apparently the changeup is coming along. He's putting up syndergaard level numbers in A, while being a year younger.

This is a guy who could be seen as a 55fv guy without too much squinting, imo, and really is my kind of prospect.

To be consistent, though, I can't get on board with Kay at all. He's not a real prospect, imo. might turn into a good reliever.

I wish they had just extended him. Seems like a lower risk than hoping these two will be front end starters in a few years.

At least we can watch Bo and pray Sanchez ups his value before the winter.

Kay has only 7 games in AAA but he was dominant in AA 1.49 ERA in 12 starts,
Strike out rate is down to 7.5/9. Walk rate has remained the same despite facing more batters.
He certainly does not walk guys like SRF does, but he's given up 7 HR in 31 innings, which isn't always predictive.
For the rest, he's giving up lots of hits on balls in play.

I don't see May as the main piece. This deal is all about whether SWR is the real deal or not.

scott i just can't get excited about a 24yr old doing well in AA, especially when he gets shelled immediately on promotion to AAA. All his previous years were middling at best, while old for the levels, too.

To those who are asking “why this deal, three days ahead of the deadline?” One of the following must be true: the Jays felt they had to trade him at this trade deadline and thought this was going to be the best offer; or, the Mets met their asking price. Neither makes sense to me (why would they feel they had to trade him now?), but one of those must be true.

Kay is an option for next year. He might get a call up in September at the most.
I don't think he was on the Mets 40 roster.

He's a lefty with average control.
He has a high spin rate fastball which sits 92-94.
His best pitch when drafted was his changeup, that's an important pitch for a lefty because it works against right handed hitters.
His curveball is now a better pitch than his changeup, high spin rate here as well.

AAA is difficult for guys with high spin because of the juiced ball.
Because he throws a curve instead of a slider and because he has a plus changeup, he could work as a starter or a multi-inning reliever.

In the short term, Waguespack is getting it done and Pannone will replace Stroman.
SRF should replace Thorton.

Best case scenario, he turns into a Scott Down type after doing so-so in the back of the rotation.

AA gave up Syndergaard, d'Arnaud and a third piece for Dickie.
In the end Syndergaard became an ace after a couple of years, d'Arnaud couldn't stay healthy and the other piece didn't factor.
This could turn out as good without stretching the imagination.
There's both upside and something for next year.
I can live with that.

The return for Sogard is apparently 2 players to be named later.

Probably guys who needs to be protected in the fall.

Kay, obviously. Typo.

Most likely they really liked SWR. Kay is someone to audition for a role next year.

Pearson, Manoah, Pardinho, SWR, Kloffenstein, ...

This could turn into a Cleveland type rotation with a bit of luck.

It's possible that the Mets plan to flip Stroman to a contender, but it seems more likely that they're planning to retool for 2020. I would assume that means Syndergard and Wheeler aren't going anywhere. Trevor Bauer, Brian Cashman is reluctantly turning his lonely eyes to you.

It's very possible that the offers from contenders for Stroman weren't as tempting as what the Jays received. (If the Mets do flip him, we'll have an idea.) But Stroman is a finesse pitcher who doesn't strike out all that many guys and that's the type of pitcher teams generally don't want to be counting on in the post-season (Stroman's own post-season history notwithstanding.)

As I said the other day, I wasn't very keen on counting on Stroman going forward so there was no better time for a trade than right now. As for Sogard - you found a 33 year old infielder with a 73 career OPS+ on the scrap heap and you were able to cash in on a four month hot streak and exchange him for something? That's free money.

Yeah, I'm hoping Sogard help the Rays finish ahead of Boston.

This could turn into a Cleveland type rotation with a bit of luck.

May be, but two of them are 18 so that rotation is likely 4 to 5 years off.

In terms of Kay’s age, he might have been old for each level but he lost all of 2017 due to TJ surgery. Some writers give him mid rotation potential with improvement in command and control so there is some hope.

I think this is a very weak deal, and I have completely lost faith in this front offices ability to make deals.

Over at The Ringer, their trade analysis says that this would have been an understandable package for Giles but puzzlingly low for Stroman.

By definition, five MLB front offices must be in the bottom five. And it's time to come to terms with the reality that the Blue Jays now have one of them, probably for the first time since 1977.

2 Thumbs up for me - I see Woods in the same ballpark as Syndergaard when he was traded (and 1 year younger) and I like Kay as a potential backend starter - in fact I like Kay's potential better than Borucki or Pannone as a potential lefty in the rotation -Kay was drafted in 2016 but didn't pitch until 2018 because of TJS and other injuries, so I will cut him some slack on being old for his level.

The biggest blunder this front office has made when it comes to trades came when they waited too long to move a player (Josh Donaldson). I understand why it happened, but even so it's just human nature to be traumatized by that sort of thing.

I think there's a very good chance Stroman will be going through all this again a year from now. Does anyone out there think the Mets will be contenders next year? By then he'll be two months away from free agency and I can guarantee he won't be sporting an ERA of 2.96 this time next year. It's going to be closer to 4.96, even if he's pitching well (which is not something you can count on from year to year.) He needs a defense behind him, and he is not going to find that in New York.

Oh, and the Jays are throwing in cash, too.

(Not that makes a lick of difference in any meaningful way, but the return is light, as it is.)

Jeff Blair has a piece up on Sportsnet about Stroman. I won't suggest you read it, because it's not very good. However, he makes a comment about the fans expecting an Archer-like package and being disappointed. The fact there's a middle ground between an Archer-like package, which nobody realistically expected, and this return seems lost on him.

Also, where's my cuttlefish for predicting the return for Stroman correctly?

BTW, a couple of weeks ago when Sanchez was really struggling, I mentioned that I was confident that Sanchez would rebound and have some quality years ahead and that the jays should try to buy low and extend him - well the last 2 starts have been encouraging, but sadly the moment to buy low may have passed.

i'm not sure contract value fluctuates quite that quickly.

This isn’t a terrible deal. It’s far more “meh” than terrible. The biggest issue for me is that it’s success is so dependent on a pitcher so far from the majors. A lot can happen to lottery ticket arms as they come through the minors.

When the Jays signed Sogard I mentioned that it was a nice under the radar signing, someone replied that Sogard's signing was so insignificant as to not warrant any discussion on this site - well Sogard on minimum salary managed to put up a 2 war season so far while being one of the more enjoyable players to watch this season and now he's bringing back the Jays 2 lottery picks - pretty nice.

I still find it hard to believe that the best deal the Jays were going to get was From a fourth place team with a mediocre farm. It smells too much like the EE free agency...when EE and agent rejected their offer, they panicked and jumped too early on mediocre talent.

Why not wait till the 11th hour before cashing in the chips? They don’t seem to have the stomach for it.

It has been mentioned already, but Kay's age is misleading. He was drafted in 2016, missed all of 2017 with TJS, and then came back in 2018. He's 24 but only has about a year and a half of pro experience. There isn't a lot of mileage or sample size there despite the age.

This deal will come down to how SWR pans out. If the Jays got him pre-breakout, then the optics of the deal will change pretty drastically in the years to come.This is the first trade Atkins has made with a legitimately high upside talent coming back. In that sense I like it better than had he focused entirely on "near-term" like he has in almost all of his other trades.

I think the Stroman deal is pretty good. Kay is only in his 2nd year of pro ball and he's already in AAA. Not too many pitchers do that. He was totally dominant in AA earlier this year, allowing only 38 hits in 66 innings. There's an article at CBS Sports that says he's a low risk prospect, who should become a #4 type starter. I don't really like those kind of limiting evaluations, but that's the way most people do it. Woods Richardson looks like an excellent prospect. His K/BB ratio is superb at 123/21, about 6 to 1. That's a better ratio than Nate Pearson has. K/BB ratio is one of my favourite evaluative stats for pitching prospects. Plus, he was one of the youngest players in the 2018 draft class, he's still just 18. The CBS article says that Kay and SWR are in a group with Pardinho as the 2-4 ranked pitching prospects in the Jays' system, after Pearson.


I expected the Jays could get something good for Sogard. He played at about a 3.8 WAR pace in 2017 and is doing so again this year, after being hurt most of last year. He's a much better player than people realize. Leave it to a smart organization like the Rays to acquire him. I would hope that at least one of the PTBNL is a decent prospect, and perhaps the reason they have not been named yet is that the Rays may have use for them this year as possible call ups, and don't want to give them up until after the season is over, in case they have injuries on the big league roster, and need replacements.

You are right Nigel but by the time star level pitching prospects reach AA/AAA, teams are very unlikely to trade them - who's the last near ready star pitching prospect that was traded - maybe Giolito ?

interesting to compare Kay to fellow 2016 1st rounder Zeuch, who also went through injury. Zeuch's 4 and a half months younger.

MILB

Zeuch: 297.1ip, 17.5k%, 7.0bb%, ~60gb%, 3.63era, 3.87fip, ~3.70xfip
Kay: 220.1ip, 23.5k%, 8.9bb%, ~38gb%, 3.76era, 3.71fip, 4.12xfip

I hope you appreciate that! My HTML skills are non-existent at this point. That was hard, man!

That cuttlefish is the best part of the trade.

For me it's hard to understand how the Mets beat the Yankee's on this trade, unless the Yankee's already have a deal sorted.

Shi Davidi says that in return for Sogard, the Jays will pick from a group of four lower level pitching prospects.

From the Rays' short season A team (same level as Vancouver), I'd be interested in Zack Trageton, maybe Rodolpho Sanchez or Edisson Gonzalez. On the A ball team there are a few former #1 draft picks, like Michael Liberatore, who obviously won't be included, Joe Ryan, who had a breakout season, and has been moved to advanced A and done well, so won't be included. Maybe Michael Plassmeyer, but he was a 4th round pick last year and has pitched very well. How about Caleb Sampen or Alan Strong?

MLB Pipeline has Kay #5 and SRW #7 on the Jays new list. I think the Jays like SRW a lot more than Kay and I do as well. He's looking great as an 18 YO in A Ball (Same age and level as Pardinho). Kay has a pretty good floor as a lefty and he's definitely ahead of Zeuch because he can strike out guys (96K in 97 IP this year vs. 28 K in 41 IP for Zeuch). Still think return is light but can also see thus trade working out. I think the Jays are fine with their pitching prospects now in that they don't need to specifically target pitchers.

The Rays have lots of young guys with plusplus fastballs who are probably going to end up in the pen.
I said I'd take a couple of those guys for Glavis and that hold true for Sogard.

Teams who want to acquire a starter or 2 might have to make room on their 40 roster.
If they wait at the last minute to make a trade, like the one that send a pitcher to make room for Sogard, they might end up losing the guy on  waivers for nothing.

The Dodgers acquired Negron from Seattle right after the Jays dealt Sogard.
Lesser player, minor return.

For every player to be potentially moved, each team has a list of best offers and counter offers.
It's guessing the Jays wanted pitching and were offered some top 100 position players instead.

Garcia from the Yankees has struggled just like Kay--in 3 games instead of 7--and he's also a guy with a high spin rate fastball. His catcher has talked about needed time to figure out the ball they use in AAA/MLB.

There was an interview on BA where Kay says he has had some trouble with the AAA/MLB baseball since he was promoted. His spin rates and profile compares perhaps to a lefty Trent Thorton.

SWR is clearly the bigger prize, but he is still a long way away from the majors. His prospect value is likely just ahead of Adam Kloffenstein. He does have serious breakout potential.

I just think that this trade seems a little light on value, and the Jays should have held out a few more days for a little more.

Mike further to your comment about wishing Marcus the best, I am excited to see him in NL where he will get the chance to hit.

Assessment seems fairly consistent across the board that it was a bit light. It doesn't do anything to give me any more confidence in he who shall not be concatenated in the front office.

But Kay seems like a servicable arm with some upside and SWR looks like a potentially exciting prospect.

I'm actually skeptical that they can truly compete for at least three or four years given their pitching situation. Other than Pearson, I'm doubtful any of the pitchers close to the majors can be top 3 on a contender; so we're stuck waiting till the younger prodigies climb the system and get a year or two at the MLB level under their belt. I hope I'm wrong- we all know how quickly the fortunes of young pitchers (e.g SRF, AK) can change- but I'm not counting on it.  I suppose they could grab a top end pitcher in the FA market in a year or two, but why would one want to come to a rebuilding team in a "foreign land"?

Kay seems to fit in with our fake-rebuild mid 20s group of marginal talents.

SWR seems to fit in with our real-rebuild group of 17-22yr old higher end talents that might turn us into a contender in 3-5yrs.

It just bothers me that we traded most of our assets to add to the older fake-rebuild group, when we could have targeted exclusively the real-rebuild type prospects and just spent money on vets in the interim.

I agree with Mike Green.

I have been trying to gather my thoughts on this deal. I guess the heart of it is that I am not as high on Stroman as others and I can see why the Jays traded him. While he has pitched really well this season, a ground ball pitcher like him will ride the wave of BABIP with a good season followed by a bad one. I think his messing with the timing of his delivery, while effective, shows how close to the good/not so good line he is.

I still think the return was light but I am not totally surprised. Teams are much more reluctant to trade prospects than they used to be. That has made most returns underwhelming for these types of trades. We don't know what else was on offer. I was nervous about acquiring Deivy Garcia from the Yankees. As others have noted the Yankees hype machine cranks up around this time every year and players get overvalued. Plus his physicals, like Stroman, are a cause for concern.

Some have said the Jays should have waited until the last minute. That didn't work lst season and I think the Jays might have been scarred by that and taken what they could before Stroman's next start.

The rotation is now like a tryout camp for the major leagues. Expect a lot of Bichette hype to divert attention away from the mound.

Blue Jays Career (Qualified)

ERA

1.Clemens 2.33
2.Halladay 3.39
3.Key 3.39
4.Stieb 3.42
5.Alexander 3.61
6.Stroman 3.71

ERA-

1.Clemens 50
2.Halladay 73
3.Stieb 82
4.Key 82
5.Alexander 86
6.Stroman 87

FIP

1.Clemens 2.44
2.Halladay 3.43
3.Stroman 3.61
4.Key 3.67
5.Morrow 3.71

FIP-

1.Clemens 54
2.Halladay 76
3.Stroman 84
4.Burnett 86
5.Guzman 88



MLB Last 6yrs (i.e. since Stro's rookie year)

87era- (T-#32 of 192 qualified SP)
84fip- (T-#19 of 192 qualified SP)
84xfip- (T-#20 of 192 qualified SP)

This season

64era- (T-#12 of 153 SP IP leaders)
77fip- (T-#24 of 153 SP IP leaders)
88xfip- (T-#39 of 153 SP IP leaders)

Updated Fangraphs prospect list for Jays have new guys at 5 and 6. For comparison, they have Pardhino at 9.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list?sort=-1,1&team=tor

"Updated Fangraphs prospect list for Jays have new guys at 5 and 6."

I won't be too surprised when those ranks suddenly change by the end of the year after a month or two in blue.

I think Pardinho is better than either of those two prospects.

I think the entire Stroman situation has to be viewed as disappointing.  It seems pretty clear that late in the game talk by the FO of an extension was strictly for the sake of trade leverage, but the tactic does not seem to have worked.  Worse still, it seems a cynical and transparent move.

I don't know why the 'we don't know what else was offered' narrative is so persistent with those more sympathetic to management.  While this is true, what we do know is that the majority of Bauxites feel the deal was light, and the majority of (all?) journalists seem to range from 'fair' to 'light' in their assessments of our return. 

We also know that the relationship between the FO and Stroman was strained.  I have long thought the best leaders are willing to accept the responsibility to 'be the bigger person'.  According to Gregor Chisolm in the Star today 'there is plenty of blame to go around' for the conflict, but it does appear that their second arbitration hearing lead to hurt feelings, and that is on the FO.  While they may gain a few hundred thousand in savings with this approach, they have created a conflict with the team's veteran leader that could not have helped their leverage in trading him.  Even if they feel a need to act from a tough negotiating position, the responsibility remains with them to address the conflict and attempt to find a resolution.  They have the power, not Stroman.  They decide where he is traded to, when he starts, the direction of the team - they control everything about his work environment - his only leverage is via the media, so I have no problem with his public positions. 

Was he somehow a toxic presence?  It's interesting that these sorts of narratives are only really put forward in moments like this - if he was a problem, would that not have been obvious to diehard fans like ourselves who follow the team's every move?  The falling out between Stro and Sanchez gives me pause, but not enough to change my belief that Stro was a genuine character player and leader - given how well liked he was by fans and teammates alike.  The only journalist I'm aware of who had problems with him is Rosie DiManno, which makes me like him more, not less ...
Another thing we do know is that the FO continues to appear tone deaf and indifferent to the fanbase.  I have previously suggested that they seem determined to distance the team from the AA days - the only successful days this fan base has enjoyed in decades.  Nothing since that post has happened to change my opinion. 

We don't know if Atkins is bad at his job - he certainly has lead the team that has had numerous successes in drafting and IFAs, but in terms of the on-field product - trading, FAs and coaching - we have a spotty record.  Morales was the biggest FA and was a total bust.  Many of the scrap-heap FAs have been solid pickups.  The jury is still out on the coaching staff, but the 're-assigning' of Shelley Duncan less than a year into his job is a bad look.  Montoyo has been less than hoped for.  On the aggregate, I'd say the successes outweigh the failures, but Atkins appears to have a clear weakness.

The trades have not been successful on the whole, even with arguably the best trade chip on the market in Stroman.   Of course, time will tell, and perhaps we have been acquiring undervalued assets who will surpass expectations.  But I do find it interesting that the best deal Atkins could get was with the Mets - and another GM that has a poor record with trading.
Perhaps part of the reason Atkins wasn't getting better trade offers is because shrewd GMs know Atkins track record, and know that he had painted himself into a corner with Stroman?  If the GMs looking for an SP upgrade believed there was a legitimate chance that Atkins might extend Stroman, perhaps the offers are better?
I know the likely defense of the FO is that rebuilding is painful - sure, obviously.  Equally obvious is the fact that some people are better at their job, and aspects of their job, than others, and our current FO is poor at trading and engaging the fan base. 

Wherever you would rank Kloffenstein in the system is where I would have SWR and wherever you would have SRF is where I would have Kaye. For me, that would put the new prospects around 8 or 9 and 14 or 15.

Wondering why then, Fangraphs and others have them much higher?

A note from former GM Steve Phillips on TSN says that Shapiro and Atkins are viewed totally differently in the baseball world than they are in Toronto.

Because prospect watching is subjective and I’m just a guy who watches a lot of minor league baseball and not a scout. It’s great that you’re a huge fan of the deal. I just don’t think either of them is better than Bichette, Pearson, Moreno, Groshans, Kirk, Manoah or Pardinho. I suspect that there’s a wide range of views of whether SWR is better than some of those names. I honestly can’t see much of an argument for Kaye being better than any of them plus a few others. That’s just me.

We have 2 free spots on the 40 man roster now.

I am interested in seeing how Atkins uses these 2 and any other spots opening.

I mentioned a day or so ago that S Brito was doing well in Buffalo. I see that as a positive for Brito but probably still valueless.

"We also know that the relationship between the FO and Stroman was strained."

trying to make this as non-snarky as possible.....but honest question, when is the last ex-jay that didn't have a strained relationship with this FO?

I believe there is only one free spot on 40 man roster. Two were freed up but one is going to Bichette.

I don't have any issue with SWR being ranked on par or ahead of Pardinho. And I think he has to be slotted ahead of Kloff at this point too. 18yr old killing it in full season ball is a pretty big deal, especially when it seems like he has 2 plus or potential plus pitches already.

I just can't buy that Kay ranking. It's been 2yrs since his injury so hoping for some radical improvement seems implausible to me. He's an older guy without any great pitches who has mediocre milb numbers overall and is struggling horribly in AAA. If we've knocked SRF down out of our top-10 because of his performance this year, Kay can't make it either.

I would rank the 18 year old pitching group as Pardinho, SWR, Kloffenstein and then Williams. It is interesting that is also how they rank from shortest to tallest. In a year from now that pitching group might be something we have not seen since Thor, Sanchez and Nicolino were in Lansing.

Thanks PeterG about Bichette.

I never cared about farm rankings. Many are graduating from our top 10 which has driven us down. The addition of Kay and SWR potentially improves our farm rankings. We could be up 3-4 rankings.

BNS says that Jays are talking with Atlanta about Biagini.

A note from former GM Steve Phillips on TSN says that Shapiro and Atkins are viewed totally differently in the baseball world than they are in Toronto.
Peter G, I'd be interested to hear those views separately - Shapiro has a reputation that long precedes Atkins', and Atkins is likely the one whose reputation is suffering more right now.
We have an apparent feud with at least on FO - Atlanta - and I can't remember a feud between our FO and another org in, uhh .... I guess 'shouldergate'? 

Feuding with other orgs looks bad on our FO, as does our strained relationship with ex-Jays from the AA era, as Ugly delicately noted above. 

Bob Nightengale quoted an unnamed exec on the trade: “What a steal by the Mets. Unreal!’’  So that exec likely has a poor view of our FO.
I think we are past the point at which criticisms of the FO can be dismissed as 'sour grapes' from a fan base that was elated with back-to-back playoff runs, or where critiques of their trading acumen can be dismissed as not understanding the market. 

With the AAA/ML ball being juiced we can expect bad AAA pitching is what people may be trying to say.

I am not aware of the good results of this ball.

Currently it has affected A Sanchez a lot it seems. Kay also is having difficulty with this as is the NYY prized prospect D Garcia.

So I guess certain type of pitchers are made better and other types are made worse by the new ball.

I will have to add more patience in my pitching prospect evaluations.

Happ?

At any rate, I think might be getting the causality wrong, but I don't know, of course... but from Pillar's comments about the 2015/2016 teams, it wasn't as if the clubhouse (and by extension with the FO) was hunky-dory.

Also, why wouldn't a tear-down in and of itself *not* strained relations with departing players? The rebuild was started at least two seasons too late. Tulo, Martin, heck even the 2018 version of Donaldson were all deadwood. That's got to bruise the ego, even if never said explicitly.

I agree that we might have to look at them separately. Shapiro is one of the most respected execs in MLB no matter what anyone here might think. Atkins still has to prove himself somewaht and I would assess his performance here as mixed.

The problem to me with the assessment of many trades by posters here and media in TO, is that Jays players being traded are often overvalued by the faithful. Stroman is one and Happ another. There have been some minor mistakes as all GM's make. The only one I think was major was not trading Donaldson earlier but that may have been an ownership call.

As Joe Siddall said this morning, these are the things that you do in a rebuild.

rebuilding is painful

It surely can be, but what would we know about that? Seriously. It's been forty years since this franchise lost 100 games, and in those forty years they lost 90 games once. Can you imagine this fanbase having to endure what Cubs or Astros fans have endured within the last decade? Year after year after year of... this.

It's not that the ball is juiced.
The ball is harder, the seams are not the same.
Pitchers are struggling to grip the ball to get the same results and they might start getting blisters for the first time in their career.

Kay doesn't walk as many as SRF does.
He's 24, that's not old for AAA.
The rest of the rotation in Syracuse with 7 starts or more is 36, 31, 31, 29, 29, 27, 25, 25 and 24.

Bautista wasn't happy to come back even though nobody else wanted to pay him.
Last year, he was playing for peanuts compared  to that QO equivalent the Jays signed him to only because they knew there was no chance for them to get a draft pick.
Had EE taken that 4/80 offer, the only difference would have been worse draft picks down the line and no Pearson.
Estrada would have stayed.
Shoemaker and Phelps seem quite happy here. Giles is almost in bliss.

Extensions to Bautista and Donaldson would have been crippling.
Signing Galvis and releasing Tulo? That was absolutely the right thing to do.
Sanchez can't be the happiest guy around, but it has probably nothing to do with the front office.

I don't think there is a feud with Atlanta.
I think the current front office sees AA as someone who will overpay in prospects to get the player he wants. So they ask for players accordingly.

It's a little different  with division rivals. It's OK to trade them rentals, but otherwise you have to set the bar higher.

Finally, this is the first year of the single trade deadline. I think many teams will stand pat and have regrets later. It's a bit of a mob mentality.

Anthony Kay is 24. He's 2.3 years younger than the "Ave Age" for the IL.

His last year at Connecticut, in the AAC, was 2016 - his age 21 year.

He missed all of 2017, his age 22 year, vacationing with his friend Tommy John.

His Age 23 year was 2018 and his "2 Teams" stats show: 122.2 IP, 124 H, 49 BB, 123 SO, 1.410 Whip, 9.1 H9, 0.5 HR9, 3.6 BB9 and 9.0 SO9.

His age 24 year he was on two teams and has pitched 7 games in the IL with Jay's Old Friend Syracuse. He is on record as being concerned about, and having complained about, the ball there.

This is a problem he'll have to tackle and overcome.

However, since we all know lefties are insane - I'm my hopes that he'll use his insanity to discover an insane way to overcome the difference in the ball.

Anthony, welcome to the Batter's Box. I'm sure we'll find new and unique ways to abuse and misuse you over the next few years as you grow into what you, and we, hope you might become.

It doesn't do anything to give me any more confidence in he who shall not be concatenated in the front office.
In before Dewey: I think you mean contracted, not concatenated. Concatenated would be Shapiroatkins or Atkinsshapiro.
However, the abbreviation still stands: HWSNBC. Although possibly, we need the pronoun they instead: THEY who shall not be contracted: TWSNBC.

By definition, five MLB front offices must be in the bottom five. And it's time to come to terms with the reality that the Blue Jays now have one of them, probably for the first time since 1977.

Depends on your criteria, doesn't it? I'm sure Roger's execs would rank TWSNBC much better than AA at responding to every request with "Yes, sir! Right away, sir!".

And it's time to come to terms with the reality that the Blue Jays now have one of them

Maybe. But who the hell knows? Let's see - Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Angels, Mets, Cincinnati, San Diego. Which four of those are better than the Toronto group?

Today's chat

Joe: Top 5 most dysfunctional franchises?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Rockies, Marlins, Royals, Mets, Angels

Not there yet per Dan.

Surely that’s a list that Baltimore has to be on? In fact, I’d sort of assumed that they were in a dysfunctional league of their own.

Nice idea for a sequel, Nigel.  "A Dysfunctional League of Their Own". 

Baltimore "Under New Management" Orioles seem to be moving in the right direction from what I've read.

Just what this division needs.

Small quibble, but Donaldson is still awesome, extending him would not have crippled the team.

Thanks, vw. Sorry Dewey. You'd think there'd be a better term than contracted though.

Conjoined?

jerjapan

I enjoyed your thoughtful post on Stroman today. Didn’t enjoy your messing up (twice) the past tense of “lead” again. (It’s “led”.) We’ve had this one before. You don’t want to take that one into the classroom.

One of the burdens of age is that fewer and fewer (not “less”) people listen to you. Their loss.

Cheers.

Thanks Dewey, I thought I'd taken my time with that one!  I can't imagine missing 'led' again, now that I've been reminded more than once.
BTW, the students definitely enjoy it when I tell them about this older baseball fan I know online who still takes the time to correct my mistakes ...

Chiming in a little late but I'm happy with the Stroman deal. SWR's numbers are elite. I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise. Yes, the Sally League is a step down from the Midwest League but SWR is 18 years old - one of the youngest players in his draft class. He'll end the year in Dunedin, which is outstanding for an 18 year old prospect. He could, potentially, make the big league roster by 20 or 21 years of age; that's a terrific prospect. Is there risk? Sure. But his strikeout rate is amazing and he's a big, strong kid. Those are the ones you bet on.

And as for Kay? A 24 year old lefthander that throws 92-94? Sign me up. Yes, he's getting smacked around a bit at Triple A but it's 30 innings, people. Relax. He may not be a star but he'll probably be useful...and the Jays will have him for at least six more seasons.

This trade is perfectly fine. What were people expecting? Stroman doesn't have the gaudy strikeout totals over which GM's salivate. He's having an excellent year and we parlayed him into two decent prospects. What do I care that they aren't on any prospect lists? Neither is Alejandro Kirk and it baffles me because that kid's numbers are outstanding. Prospect lists aren't everything.

Found this from ex-BP writer Gideon Turk at Fangraph's Hardball Times discussing his time writing and breaking news about the Jays, his pipeline to the inner workings of the FO and the ramifications.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/breaking-the-news/

I've seen somewhere that Kay was hit hard in his first AAA games but had been improving.

It's going to be interesting to see what he does in Buffalo.

Improving is relative, I guess.

Gm1: 11.25era, 5.39fip
Gm2: 36.00era, 6.64fip
Gm3: 4.50era, 6.39fip
Gm4: 7.20era, 9.04fip
Gm5: 1.59era, 5.41fip
Gm6: 4.50era, 6.31fip
Gm7: 6.35era, 4.88fip

I expect him to take a few days to adjust. Hopefully we will see improvement then.