Awesome pic, but I don't recognize anyone?
Detroit is a good place to visit, and while the Motown museum was closed due to flooding when we tried to go, the musical history in the city is, ahem, off the charts. 

Just give me temptations.

Talking 'bout my Gurriel.

Waguespack is on the bump for Jays Sunday. Borucki will pitch Monday.

Lots of Yankees scouts at game to watch apparently. It’s the team I’d least like to trade with because they are the Yankees and also because I think they’ll be putting Clint Frazier as their big piece and he’s not someone I’d be targeting,

I'd be OK with Frazier for Galvis. Throw in Hudson too.

I wouldn't mind going to DET to see the Four Seasons...

Surely the club has its fill of fringy corner OFs; although, Frazier would fit with the FO’s outfield defensive philosophy:).

Seriously, corner OF has to be low down on the priority list if they are looking for near ready prospects.

Frazier is so this FO.

Wasn't he drafted by this FO?

Can we talk about Eric Sogard? What should the FO do with him? Is there a legitimate chance that he is actually as good as he’s shown this year — or close to it? I would hate to see him dealt for another AAAA player — because all veterans must be traded — only to see him have a Scutaro-like surge over the next few years.

Isn’t Sogard exactly what this team needs as a super utility player? I’d keep him and move Galvis for Bichette. Sogard has to have more value to the Jays than a contender.

My guess is that the Yankees are acting more interested in keeping Frazier than they are so they can "give in" and agree to deal him rather than some of their actually prized prospects... the winning team will walk away feeling good only to realize they got duped by Cashman again. Like Toronto... like Seattle...

Frazier’s concussion history should also give teams pause.

Great throw by Gurriel to gun down the runner at third. The best option for the Jays may well be to leave him in left field for the next half-dozen years or so and let him perform.

From the NYY...

Thairo Estrada is interesting - a utility guy at the moment, 23, in AAA but has a few ML PA's. Not a wow, but a solid guy who could be useful. Might be a bonus piece in a trade.

Clint Frazier I'm meh on. Has shown a bit of a bat in the minors but not a 'wow' one. Appears to just be a corner OF, which we have tons of. I'd take him but not as the core of a trade.

Only 3 pitchers under 26 years old have been used in the majors by the Yankees this year. Johnathan Loaisiga is the top ranked one, but has been on the 60 day IL up to now with 4 games under his belt this year (3 starts). Very wild, lots of K's. In AAA last year he had 1.3 BB/9 vs 10.8 K/9 so his wildness in the majors may just be rookie nerves.

The Yankees top prospect is Estevan Florial OF in A+ hitting for just a 622 OPS. Lifetime in the minors he has hit just 275/356/439 and is 21 this season. Not bad, but not wow enough to make me excited.

Checking these few I'm having trouble seeing a match. Maybe with a few pitching prospects I didn't check it could work.

I think you're using outdated sources. Florial's stock has dropped.

And you've missed the only prospect likely worth trading for from the NYY; Deivi Garcia. He's just behind Nate Pearson in prospect readings and trending up.

Some serious dead weight on this Tigers roster. Cabrera is still owed 120M after this season, and he may as well be Melky Cabrera for all the value he brings.

And is Jordan Zimmerman looking to serve up the lowest return ever on a 110M contract? He's at 0.8 WAR with 1.5 seasons to go.

What a dreary team.

The list I used was from May of this year, SNY.tv

Albert Abreu is #3, ERA over 5 last year, 5.1 BB/9 this year. Ugh.

Deivi Garcia is #4 - 2.92 lifetime ERA, 4.2 BB/9 vs 14.7 K/9 - wow. Solid in AA over 10 starts, just 1 in AAA so far. Yeah, he would be my choice for #1 now that I've looked. Just 20 too. Gladly send them Stroman in a 1 for 1 trade. Doubt they'd go for it.

Outside of Garcia I'm underwhelmed by Yankee prospects. Any deal with the Yankees that doesn't get Garcia is a poor deal imo.

Ouch on Cabrera for the Tigers. That contract looked bad the moment it was signed imo. Now they have a 37 year old DH with a 95 OPS+ who makes $30+ mil a year for 3 years after this one. Plus 2 option years that vest if he makes the top 10 in MVP voting the year before ("luckily" unlikely although I'd love to see some MVP voters decide to screw over Detroit in 2023's voting and give him a stack of votes just to force it to vest even if he is retired).

Oops, make that 4 years. I thought they had current year under the line on BR not above it.

Supposedly the Yankees have excellent depth in the low minors, per Longenhagen or McDaniel.

Stroman looks pretty good tonight but he’s left a few pitches up out over the plate, including when he was ahead in the count.

The Yankees are definitely going to try to use Frazier as the centerpiece in any deal. They have kept him in the minors for a reason. Hopefully the Jays do not take the bait. Avoiding Cashman entirely would be a better option.

This may be an ignorant question, but is there any sort of culture in MLB where a GM who fleeces another GM in a trade is perceived to have an obligation to make up the debt to some extent in a later trade with the same GM?

You can probably see where I’m going with this.

I don't think there is. I think generally if a GM does regular fleecing then other GM's need to wake up and stop dealing with him or be extremely careful when doing so. Kenny Williams pulled a fast one on Gord Ash by selling him a broken pitcher for an All-Star - Ash was dumb enough not to do a full physical on the guy coming back thus got nada for David Wells after he won 20 games (yeah, yeah, I know, but in the 90's 20 wins was still seen as a sign of a great pitcher).

I suspect many GM's are wary with AA as he has had a few lobsided trades but also takes big risks thus has lost a few too. But with the Yankees and Cashman I'd be very, very, very careful as he has fleeced many GM's many times and people keep falling for his tricks with 'this is a super prospect, no honestly, really, really this time' and publications fall for it too. I'd be having a dozen scouts going over their system with a fine tooth comb, plus a few statistical scouts. Then put all the studies together before talking. Have an ordered list of who you want and what they are worth before talking. Then stick to it like glue. It is Atkins fault if he doesn't.

The Jays made some very good veteran acquisitions in the off-season: Shoemaker, Galvis, Sogard, Phelps, Hudson. All of them were signed at a bargain rate, too.

Some classic verbal flubs in the Jays television broadcast. For instance:

“The Jays lead 12-1, as the Sox bat here in the ninth...”

“There’s a deep drive to right...” (After Jansen hit a deep foul ball down the left-field line.)

Let's say the Jays were contending this year, because you are the GM. Sogard is having this season with the Tigers, but the Jays could really use him. Who's the best prospect in our system you'd be willing to give up to acquire Sogard?

Alford or Smith

For any Stroman trade I'd say 2 from the top 100 list are needed, or a top 10-20 guy plus others. This isn't a 2 month rental but a year plus of a guy who could put a team over the top in the playoffs.

MLB top 100

Yankees: Estevan Florial #47, Jonathan Loaisiga #96 Garcia is ranked #4 in the Yankee system.

Phillies: Alec Bohm #38 (3B), Adonis Medina (RHP) #77 - they are listed as a prime Stroman chaser but I don't see them having the horses to trade if this is it for top 100.

Astros are a strong contender, of course, and have a lot of prospects. #9/10/11 are all theirs (RHP Forrest Whitley, OF Kyle Tucker, OF Yordan Alvarez) plus #48 RHP Corbin Martin, #97 RHP J.B. Bukauskas.

Tampa as always is a contender despite no budget and have tons of prospects. #1 (SS) Wander Franco. Wonder if the Jays covered the entire budget for Stroman and Giles if that might work. Nah, but given how cheap Tampa has to be one wonders if enough cash plus talent could do the trick. No dead contracts in Tampa from the looks of it so no easy 'take this bad deal to help us' there.

Yeah, I say go for a home run, trade Stro & Giles for a mega prospect if you can. If he flops, crap, but if he works out 'woohoo'. One can never have too many top 10 prospects. Just ask Houston.

Gotta have one top 25 guy for stroman at least.

If Stroman gets traded, I hoe they make a strong play to resign him as an FA. There aren’t many top end players dying to come to Toronto and copping a top prospect in a trade while resigning him for the contending years might well be a coup.

"Gotta have one top 25 guy for stroman at least."

Why? Stroman has around $19M of surplus value which according to Fangraphs chart of player value gets you back one prospect in the 90-110 region. The top-25 prospects all have value of more than double Stroman. Maybe some team gets desperate and gives up too much, it does happen, but Stroman is not an elite pitcher and he only has 1.33 years of control left. Rumour was Jays were asking for 2 top-100 prospects which would be a great get if they could and more than he should be getting back.

They just grabbed Hudson after the Dodgers released him.
The guy they got initially was Javy Guerra who was good, but they didn't have room to hold him when Tepera came back. He's been exactly the same with the Nationals.

Well, Buck and Pat are no spring chicken.

I mean, should moving the runner on a ground ball give you half an RBI or maybe a partial sacrifice?

Why?

Because if we're not getting a prospect back with a realistic expectation of actually being a better player than stroman the next 5yrs, then we should be re-signing stroman instead.

Would the Phillies trade Adonis Medina?
I'm not sure how I feel about Spence Howard. Premium stuff, but still a way off.
In theory he could rise fast.
De los Santos is about ready, but he only has 2 pitches. He's their top 6  pre-draft prospect but they  got him straight for one year of Freddy Galvis.

I'd be OK with Medina or even Howard, but they would have to include other pieces.
I also would have no problem sending back another guy who is on the 40 with Stroman, like Paulino let say.

At this point Stroman might have decided to test free agency.
If that's the case, the Jays might have as much chance of signing Stroman as anyone else.
That's true if he takes a 19M QO? (Not sure what the value will be after 2020).
That might be true if he does not sign a QO and the Jays finish strong in 2020.

Craig Edwards at FG felt Stroman's value at one 50ish prospect plus one 100ish prospect. Now if they can get that, or less or more depends on a number of outside factors. How many SP buyers will there be? Who else will be realistically available?
It's also been noted that small sample size is never more important than before the deadline.
Could Stro yeild a top 25 prospect? Maybe. But limiting yourself to a top 25 prospect will also make the buyer pool much smaller as not all contenders can offer that.

Stroman can offer things that Price could not in 2015: a season and a half (or more) of team control, and demonstrated ability to perform in the postseason. Maybe a third thing as well: outstanding defense from the P position.

Also, he has particular value for a serious contender with a slower infield surface at home and/or a good infield defense.

For any team in need of starting pitching, but especially for the right team, he would be an excellent pickup.

I feel it is a lot less important to get high ranked prospects than to get what they need, a potential front line starter.

Maybe there's a pitching prospect out there who is valued less because he's short or his delivery is not typical. As long as he has good stuff and can throw strikes and get major leaguers out, I'd take that over another infield prospect or an outfielder with tools who hasn't hit but is highly ranked because he scouts well.

The acquiring team, if it doesn’t extend Stroman,
may get a QO draft pick for him as well.

Price was a Cy Young winner and had been to the All-Star games 5 times.
Stroman just made it this year, almost by default.  Stroman is a ground ball pitcher and a gold glover, that seemed undervalued. His FIP is not great, he walks a few too many and doesn't strikeout a ton of guys.

The Jays were a .500 team when they acquired Price and they they took off.
Price isn't the only reason for this, they acquired a lot of guys around that time.

Stroman will probably go to a contender who hopes to have him pitch in their 3rd or 4th playoffs game. He's seen more as a final touch than a game changer.

It's a lot like Happ. It all depends on how many teams are willing to bid over him.

My well researched thoughts IMHO RE: Stroman trade value/what will happen:

- theres more buyers than sellers
- Giants pulling Bumgarner off the block
- Stroman is cheaper in salary than Bauer
- Stroman will also get acquiring team a QO compensation pick
- the return will go up in value if Jays add more players
- the return will go up if Jays pay down salary
- Jays will only get top 50 prospects if they
A) package Stroman with a prospect or Giles
B) take a top 25 prospect with questions

Here are a few examples of trade proposals following these notes:

* Stroman for Forest Whitley (#9 prospect in a terrible season)

* Giles and Hudson for Dustin May (LA Dodgers SP prospect with huge upside)

* Stroman and Giles for Graterol from Minnesota

*Stroman and Giles for Gavin Lux (trade your surplus infield in off season for SP)

* Giles for Balazanovich from Minnesota

* Stroman and Giles for Ian Anderson from Braves

*Stroman and Giles for Bohm + from Phillies (he's best power hitting prospect in minors)


Those would all be good trades. Here's what i think teams are actually offering the Jays...as the proposals above are likely reserved for the Syndergaards of the world...

* Stroman for some 50-100 Philly prospects since they traded away their best prospects already...no Bohm at all

* Stroman and Giles for Verdugo and Urias and lower prospects

* Stroman and or Giles for meh prospects with great track records like the Braves and Astros: Touissant, Wilson, Martin etc...

There's probably a stand off between the good offers and the "we will trade you our top prospects but not our top prospects" and this will likely continue until we get closer to the deadline until someone steps up for the Jays.

I think the best opportunity for the Jays is to align with a team contending but very near to the luxury penalty levels like the Dodgers or Phillies.

And in a separate note...I would be all over DET, asking for Cabrera and pitching prospects to pay off that salary for them.

I would advocate against dealing with the Phillies unless they agree to deal Alec Bohm, which they won't... not a Medina fan and he's only striking out six batters per nine in AA. Spencer Howard is very interesting but not to headline a deal. Not a strong system.

Very unlikely to get a top 25 prospect especially with the hoarding of quality prospects - best chance to get a top prospect is to trade Stroman to a team like the Padres who have never won a WS or an impatient owner/FO (Phillies?) - definitely not the Yankees.

I don't think the player coming back for Stroman has to be better than Stroman over the next 5 years - he has to be a productive player - he's going to be cheap, so you can allocate the potential Stroman money (about 20m/year) to other players/FA etc.

Padres, Phillies, Dodgers, Twins, Braves, A's, Astros are the best potential partners.

Astros won't take Giles

Phillies I agree only have 1 prospect

Dodgers have a ton to offer

Twins have a ton

Padres have a ton...probably the best "lower 50" prospects like Quantrill on top of their top 50 prospects like Morejon and Patino as well as guys already in MLB like Luchessi and Will Myers/Renfroe

A's have AJ Puk who is like Forest Whitley from the Astros

NYY have one prospect in Deivi Garcia

Rockies and Red Sox have far away prospects like Riley Pint and Jay Groom

BRaves are in same position of prospects as San Diego

"so you can allocate the potential Stroman money (about 20m/year) to other players/FA etc."

heh.

Ugly,

Please, for my sanity, wait until Jays are in a position to spend with the new core and show us they won't before you harp on them and write them off.

I'm actually dying to hear your proposals of who to target in trade or sleeper returns. Send out your ideas on that...we all know the costly mistakes of all front offices that were made in the recent past.

Overall I think Stroman has been a great teammate and citizen. So we can keep him, offer Arb next year and then a QO. This is an option the the FO needs to be aware of.

I have a lot more faith in the team drafting well than trading well. Maybe the QO is the way to go... unless a team ponies up a Deivi Garcia+ or a Larnach+ or Weigel/Wentz+ or Kyle Wright+ or Brennan Davis/Brailyn Marquez+...

In theory, the Jays should be able to trade well, as they’ve shown they can evaluate talent well (in the rule 4 draft, in the IFA market, in the FA bargain bin). And remember that they were reportedly in on Yelich in the trade market before he blew up and became one of the top few players in the game.

I will not be disappointed if the team aims high and then fails to consummate a trade because other teams refuse to meet their asking price. I will be disappointed if they cave and accept a subpar offer “because all teams are hoarding their prospects now” (and, implicitly, the team was going to trade Stroman no matter what).

I would advocate against dealing with the Phillies unless they agree to deal Alec Bohm, which they won't.

Is Bohm that good? Both FG and Law have him in the 50 range in their prospect updates. Philly should be motivated.

I predict Stroman will have to make one or two more starts (July 24 and/or July 30) before a trade happens. No doubt the front office would love to pull the trigger before then, but these things usually go down to the wire.

I think we will see a trade of one or both after Giles get two more pitching performances.

Hopefully they draft well next year when they'll have an earlier pick, but it's not going to help in the short term. The alternative is to trade some position players for pitching prospects. They could also trade some near prospect for more international money but again, that will not help in the short term.

Certainly, they won't lose a pick by signing a free agent before the next draft.

In the meanwhile, we'll have to see if there is anything in the pitchers already on the 40.
They might use Font as an opener.

I also trust the FO's drafting over their trading, but in fairness to them, they have never traded assets like Stroman and Giles before. Those two players are by far more valuable than any combination of players they have traded since they have arrived. We don't really know what to expect in return. I am a fairly confident that it won't be a top 25 prospect, but two top 100 prospects wouldn't be an unreasonable expectation. It is hard to say without having a comparison point since there hasn't really been any trades happening aside from some minor stuff.

https://jaysjournal.com/2019/07/20/blue-jays-does-ross-atkins-receive-fair-value-at-the-trade-deadline/

There's a decent article showing that Atkins actually didn't do so bad last year. He received more back than Texas did for Hamels.

Personal opinion, Garcia from the Yanks is getable, obtainable and procurable. Not necessarily in that order.

He's 20 years old, 5'9" and 163 pounds.

He's played, and played well, at three levels this year. Not all these little guys make it big in the Bigs. Stroman's a pint sized, 5'7" 180 pounds, BUT he keeps hits on the ground. I don't know how good Deivi is in that regard. Unless he has near to Stroman's ground ball rate I think the Spankys might be open to a trade.

To me a "good" little pitcher is just not (usually) in the running with a "good" big pitcher. I wouldn't be comparing Deivi's projected future with Pearson at this stage. Pearson is the superior thoroughbred (IMHO).

Well, the Rangers went with quantity in the Cole Hamels deal. One guy moved to the Korean League. The biggest piece, Rollie Lacy was send to the Rays when Profar was sent to the A's and Texas ended up with Brock Burke (5O grade pitcher), Eli White (45 grade infielder), Yoel Espinal (marginal reliever in AA/AAA) and Kyle Bird, a right handed reliever who has done well in AAA and has pitched in 9 games with the Rangers. That and some international money.

I'd rate the Happ deal higher if Drury could be shipped somewhere for a couple of rookie level guys.

Rollie Lacy has not played in 2019.

Yes but thinking “how could Texas have gotten so little for Hamels?” is a question only to be asked in retrospect given how Hamels has pitched this year. At this time last year, with how Hamels was pitching and that he had another year on his contract, there was plenty of discussion that Hamels would need to be given away or that Texas might have to add something to provide incentive for someone to take on that contract.

I don't want Garcia in any trade with Yankees. For me, it would have to be Florial or Loaisiga.

I don't want to see a trade with the Yankees, full stop. Trades with that organization generally do not work out well. And after helping the Yankees out last year and helping the Red Sox to a WS title in the same season, I'm not inclined to see the Jays do it *again* for the Yankees this year. The Blue Jays are not a farm affiliate for their prime AL East rivals and they should not regard themselves as such.

Deivi Garcia will be a top 10 prospect by year end.

Don't agree. I think he is over hyped. And nothing wrong with trading with Yankees or RS as long as they pay up.

Drury
McKinney
Espinal

People keep bringing up Happ when they talk about Stroman being traded. I don't think they're similar situations at all. Last year, Happ was a 35 year old guy who was a free agent at the end of the year, and had an ERA of 4.18 when he was traded. Stroman is 28, has another year of control after this year, and has an ERA of 3.06 right now. Same with Giles, he's 28, is one of the best closers in baseball, and has another year of control. The value each of these guys has is much higher than Happ had a year ago.

Deivi Garcia is exactly the kind of guy I want targeted.

"Fangraphs' surplus value metric does not capture all of what you need to know for deadline deal purposes. There are essentially two seasons- the regular season and the postseason. "

Agreed but where it is lacking is with relief pitchers who have far more value in playoffs than regular season. Starters might be a bit undervalued which is why I think you'd expect more than one guy in the 95 range back (I think reasonable return would be like one guy in range of #75 and one guy in 125-150 range). However, the Price situation is very different than the Stroman one. Stroman is not an elite pitcher. His career high in WAR is 3.4. Price had 6 straight years better than that when the Jays traded for him. So Price was seen as that difference making ace, one of the best pitchers in baseball-The type of guy you can start 3 times in a series (or bring out of the bullpen in a blowout I guess). These are players team will overpay for. If someone wanted Max Scherzer for a playoff run, they'd give up a lot. Stroman is not remotely in this league though. The Astros, for example, who are said to be one of the biggest pursuers of Stroman, would want him to be their #3 starter. So giving up a top-25 prospect for 1+ years of a guy you want to be your #3 starter is ridiculous. You can compare Stroman to Quintana who got back Eloy Jimenez for example except Quintana was better that Stroman (3 straight years of WAR higher than Stroman ever had when he was straded) and Quintana had 4 years of team control with a super cheap contract.

I love the trade talks.

I also love what Vlad did last night. Grand slam!!!

There's probably too much hype about Garcia.
He's pitched 8 innings in AAA and he was just OK.
He started the year as the Yankees' 4rh or 5th prospect and most his success is from his curveball.
If he was any good, he'd be in New York right now.
I don't think he goes through a lineup 3 times.

Quintana was better because he pitched in the AL central against terrible teams. Bad comparison. He also brought back Dylan Cease in addition to Eloy.

Your David Price example is a good one. He had demonstrated elite ability and teams will pay more for that. But even then, he cost us Norris who was a top 30 prospect in baseball, Boyd who had upside potential and llabourt who was a lottery pick. That's a hell of a lot for 3 months of baseball.

In general I don't think looking back at previous trades is a good exercise. SD traded James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr so does that mean we should get a newly minted super high lottery prospect for an equivalent innings eating pitcher if we had one?

I dont think teams use fangraphs or their FV ratings or say "we need someone on Fangraphs top 50 list." The lists are constantly changing and teams wouldnt use scouts if they did that. Teams consider many more things than that and for the Jays they probably want back players to complement the current core and who will be resignable long term and compliment the core. That means a CF/1B or P.

Stroman will probably fetch at least the same return Price did in this seller's market. The worry should be the return but the teams ability to develop the return in the majors. That's probably the riskier venture since they don't have much success with pitching development like the Astros.

Eloy jimenez was a 60fv top 10 prospect when traded.

And where a player or prospect ranks on one team's depth chart is irrelevant.

I saw Garcia in the future game and was not impressed.

scottt, you're Garcia comments are jaw-droppingly ridiculous.

8 OK AAA innings? You couldn't find anything more irrelevant?

He just turned 20 years old 2 months ago, and he'd be pitching for the Yankees if he was any good????

I don't know why you'd want a 1B.
That's the least valuable position in baseball.
The Jays have a bunch of guys they can run at CF, Alford, Pompey, Hernandez.
Most of the prospect there have poor hit tools.

The only position they should target his pitching.
Of course, if someone offers a top hitting prospect, you'd have to consider it.

Brandon Drury, at .850, has the 4th highest OPS on the Jays in last 30 games.

What's relevant about Garcia is that he's in a hot streak.
He's a great prospect only if you value the last 3 months more than the previous 4 years.
All his success was at AA where the hitters have all been scuffling this year.

The Tigers will match Waguespack with Tyler Alexander.
He has good strikeout rate, good walk rates but gets hit a lot.
That's what I'd expect for a lefty with big splits.

fangraphs says he throws fastball/slider/changeup with 50 ratings across the board.

Surprised there was no thread about Roy Halladay's HOF induction - also that his autopsy showed he had a cocktail of medications in his system - ah,the feet of clay of our sports icons.

Arizona traded B Drury when his value was high. 3 team deal. Arizona, NYY and TB.

NYY "expects/it is practically demanded" that they win every year. That forces them to build their team a certain way. Always for the present is a priority.

Drury slumped with NYY so his present value made him surplus. They too have to manage the 40 spots on their 40 man roster. They don't have the luxury of patience.

There's a link by someone on one of the forums here to a great story about Halladay. In it they interview his father and go over his addiction to Amphetamine's and Prozac and how he had clinical depression. It also talks about the dependency he had on impressing his father and the childhood he skipped.

I really hope the Astros want Stroman. As I mentioned above they are loaded with prospects. In the top 100 they have #9/10/11 (RHP Forrest Whitley, OF Kyle Tucker, OF Yordan Alvarez) plus #48 RHP Corbin Martin, #97 RHP J.B. Bukauskas. Given that depth they might be more willing to trade multiple prospects if Stroman is the guy they want. IF I was Atkins I'd push for one of the 9-11 guys or both Martin & Bukauskas depending on scouts have to say about the rest of the system. Their offense is nice, no real holes with decent backups once Aledmys Diaz (the ex-Jay) is back from the IL (currently on rehab in AA from a left hamstring pull that has him out since late May).

Yeah, the only hole is really #4/5 starters. Their pen is pretty strong but like all could use another guy but only Giles has been good enough to be a clear upgrade on the guys they have at the back of the pen and he ain't going there. So basically only Stroman is needed there and he isn't vital but they have a massive surplus of young talent so we might have the right mix - a team with tons of young talent and tons of ML talent with one small hole, and the Jays having a piece for that hole with a need for prospects. They might like Sogard or Glavis to be a backup for them just in case too. I'd happily give them either or both if it helps get a deal done for the lower 2 top 100's or one of the 9/10/11 prospects.

FYI: March lists had Houston with 7 50's, 28 40 and up's, 39 with 35+ potential value. vs the Jays 4 50's and up, 25 40 and ups, 34 35 and ups.

Atlanta, Houston, San Diego, Minnesota and Los Angeles Dodgers are the best fits but Houston won't take Giles so that eliminates them from the possibility of getting 2 players for a stud prospect. It would be a real shock if the Jays got one of those 3 HOU prospects you listed for Stroman. Martin they could get but he just underwent tommy john.

Yeah as mentioned Martin is out for at least a year and Buskauskas has been bad as a pro... a likely future reliever. I would be disappointed I'd either do those players were in a Stroman deal. It's Tucker or bust from Houston... but I doubt they'd give him up for Stroman.

"He's a great prospect only if you value the last 3 months more than the previous 4 years"

Are you talking about Deivi Garcia?

he's been a good 2-3yrs young for each of these levels:

AA (19-20): 56.0ip, 37.6k%, 2.73era, 2.14fip, 2.44xfip
A+ (19-20): 46.0ip, 37.4k%, 1.96era, 1.58fip, 2.30xfip
A (19-19): 40.2ip, 37.1k%, 3.76era, 3.15fip, 2.57xfip

Those are ridiculous numbers for a prospect that young. Hell even if he wasn't young.

Milb career: 259.0ip, 35.9k%, 2.92era, 2.78fip,

High 90s fastball, killer curve, and very usable change and slider.

Yeah, Tucker or bust from Houston, agreed.

With his 80 game PED suspension, TJ surgery and turning 24 in November, the Astros may be ready to dump Francis Martes and for the right price I'd be happy for the Jays to acquire him -he's a reclamation guy with upside that I like.

Stroman alone will not get you guys like Tucker or Alvarez who are rated in the same sphere as Bo Bichette.

Would you trade Bo for Stroman? Not a chance. Bo for Stroman and Giles? Maybe if you were that close and needed both those players to win the championship.

That's why many posters roll their eyes when we throw top prospect names around in returns. Packaging Stroman and Giles gives the FO a better chance to get a top prospect back if that prospect has some question marks or is blocked. Here are some top tier prospects that may be available due to blemishes:

PIT Prospects:

* Forrest Whitley...bad year of pitching, shoulder fatique and maturity issues

* AJ Puk ... returning from Tommy John and posting great K/9 but his control isn't back yet.

* Dustin May ... blocked in Dodgers rotation

* Patino, Morejon, Quantrill...they already have Gore, Paddack, Lamet, Allen and Luchessi in the majors...and more prospects on the way so something needs to give. Moving Quantrill and Allen to the bullpen would seem a waste of talent and even then they still have too much good young pitching.



INF Prospects

* Luis Urias blocked in SD

* Carter Kieboom blocked in WAS

I would take Tucker even up for Stroman but as stated, it is unlikely Houston would do it.

Maybe Stroman , along with Sogard, to Oakland for Luzardo or Puk.

Not sure we can get that good a deal but hopefully close.

Tucker is clearly not near Bo's level of prospect.

One more thing - we may be focusing too much on prospects. What if they Jays made a trade for good young mlb players with control. I used this idea upthread:

Stroman and Giles to LAD for Urias and Verdugo. They are both controlled through 2023. Urias has had domestic abuse issues and Verdugo has been blocked.

Ugly they're both ranked in the top 10 and the only reason Bo is even in that conversation is the fact that he is a SS. Have you seen Tucker's offensive numbers?

I love the enthusiasm but you always seem to overvalue Toronto assets, especially so if they're unpopular or underrated assets by other Jays fans.

Fangraphs' Big Board is instructive here on differentiating tiers of prospects by giving future value grades. It's just one list but it is helpful to get a better picture of the inadequacies of looking at simple closeness of rank - ESPECIALLY near the very top of the rankings as therr are only a handful of truly elite prospects followed quickly by a much larger number of good but more flawed prospects.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list

70fv (1) - Franco
65fv (3) - Lewis, Adell, Bichette
60fv (11) - Whitley, Gore, Rutschman, May, Mize, Lux, McKay, Ruiz, Kieboom, Pache, Hayes
55fv (30) - Tucker, Alvarez, 28 others
50fv (80) -

Now maybe they're wrong about Tucker and he's a tier up in the 60fv range - but even then he still wouldn't be on Bo's level, despite the closeness in rank. As it is, this is one source that considers him 2 full tiers below Bo.

Regardless off the accuracy of any of these grades on this particular ranking, in general what I am asking we receive for Stroman is a 55fv type prospect, which here covers the #16-45 range. I'm not expecting a 60fv guy (I.e. #6-15 range), and certainly not a 65fv guy like Bo.

Now maybe Tucker is considered by most teams to be a 60fv guy, in which case I agree that's a little rich to ask for. But if he's in the 55fv range like this list believes, then yeah, that's exactly the level of prospect I'll be dissappointed if we don't get.

If we end up with just a 50fv guy it's hard for me to see the value of trading stroman.

https://jaysjournal.com/2019/07/20/blue-jays-does-ross-atkins-receive-fair-value-at-the-trade-deadline/

There's a decent article showing that Atkins actually didn't do so bad last year. He received more back than Texas did for Hamels.

That's a strange premise for an article: use one bad trade (Hamels) as the basis for comparison for another (Happ). There are only losers in that scenario, at least for the teams getting "prospects".

However, I will applaud the other conclusion of the piece - that the Jays waited too long to trade Happ. Trying to walk a middle-road is also what burned them badly with Donaldson and a general hallmark for poor (or dysfunctional) front offices. There was a great interview on one of the local stations this week about the Rays and how they manage to stay competitive. One of their mantras is selling 'one year too early' on assets - which as I alluded above is painful and unpopular to do, but how to optimize your return.

That said, it's probably unfair to only pile on Atkins for this mismanagement, as it's been speculated that ownership is the one who found it unpalatable to make the aggressive (read: smart) plays once it became clear they weren't going to invest aggressively in an aging core.

Good young mlb players under control are ok as well

Ugly,

I'll agree with that informative post. I never use Fangraphs as a reference...no particular reason, but i'm shocked Tucker has slid down their lists. But yeah, I'm on the same page with you regarding the tiers and which Tier the Jays should be expecting to hit with a Stroman return.

I think the Jays should demand a player in the #21 to #40 range plus two or three players in lower level A ball...guys that are either International Bonus Babies or high picks that haven't made it past High A level yet. That's a realistic return for Stroman.

As for Giles, I'm expecting a player within the 61 to 100 range plus another young player in Lower A that again, is a higher pick or an International Bonus Baby.

3yrs leading to trade:

Archer: 84gs, 98era-, 87fip-, 80xfip-, 9.3fwar, 6.0ra9war, 2.9war/32
Stroman: 72gs, 84era-, 87fip-, 86xfip-, 7.3fwar, 7.2ra9war, 3.3war/32

Season of trade:

Archer: 17gs, 104era-, 88fip-, 86xfip-, 1.8far, 1.0ra9war, 2.6war/32
Stroman: 20gs, 67era-, 78fip-, 88xfip-, 2.6fwar, 2.8ra9war, 4.3war/32



I would say that Stroman is a flat out better pitcher right now than Archer was when traded, and likely by a good amount.

Now when Archer was traded he had 2 more years on his contract for about $10m each. Whereas it would cost about double that to sign Stroman for those years. But, then again, you'd be signing the better pitcher.

Using xWOBA from Baseball Savant for a different perspective, they were pretty close but Archer was slightly better (by about 10-20 points a year). That's probably the difference between good #2 (~.305) and decent/normal #2 (~.320). This year, though, Stoman has kicked it up 2 notches and is pitching like a borderline Ace (.289) whereas Archer's, well, umm, uhh (.361).

The only person who would be better that might end up being dealt is Syndergaard (.282), and I'm still skeptical that happens.

Just curious, is anyone watching today's game?

What's a game?

Seriously, though, I have it on my second screen, as is the usual.

Ugh. I hate Jersey HBPs.

Yes...while at work. MLBtv. The Detroit broadcasters are snoozers but better than Buck/Tabler.

Ok, that was pretty close. But for a half step or so, it'd be a triple play.

I've always thought that age 29 was like The Witching Hour for right-handed pitchers. Something happens to them. (Mainly, their stuff starts to change, and it takes them some time - like a year or two - to adjust. If they can.) Archer, of course, was 29 when he was traded and he surely hasn't made the adjustment. He's still hard to hit, he still strikes out lots of hitters. But he can't keep the ball in the park and his walks are up.

It might be wise to trade Stroman before that happens to him, as opposed to betting that it doesn't. (Or as Branch Rickey put it, "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late.") Stroman's value is as high as it's ever been. The 2019 Stroman is a very valuable guy to have on your team. The 2018 version was not, nor was the 2016 version. I simply would not want to wager on the 2020 version, never mind anything after that.

Granted, I'm not very keen on RH finesse pitchers. And the history of small RH pitchers doesn't give me much joy either.

I was going to watch but switched gears to watch Morejon pitch for SD after Daniel Norris was removed from starting for the Tigers.

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If #BlueJays indeed were reluctant to trade with #Braves, that stance has softened, sources say. Thus, Stroman and/or Giles to ATL possible. As Dave notes, Giles might be preference. Anthopoulos acquired two of his other former Jays - Bautista (later released) and Donaldson. 2/2

Let's go!

For just Stroman: Ian Anderson and Luiz Gohara

For Stroman & Giles: Pache (I'm dreaming), Bryse Wilson and
Kyle Muller

For Giles: Kolby Allard.

AA likes to trade. Lets trade!

Yes, AA will do something and he is willing to overpay.

Anything can happen, but Waguespack will have to improve to become a good starter in the majors. Looks like he is close. He missed his spots quite often today. Appeared to me (my eyes are really old - think pop bottle bottoms) that he did not fool many batters with his stuff, even though he had 7 strike outs.

According to Buck and Pat, and, yeah, I know it's hard to listen to them sometimes, hitters who have seen him the last few games say he has good stuff. He will have to improve his control to be a regular starter,though.

This is from the TalkingChop blog, posted a few days ago:

"According to the Baseball Trade Values simulator, a fair trade for Stroman would be:

Braves get Stroman

Blue Jays get Kyle Wright and Kolby Allard

With the Braves also in the market for a closer, the Braves might also look to package Stroman with Blue Jays closer Ken Giles. The trade simulator suggests the following would be a fair trade:

Braves get Stroman and Giles

Blue Jays get Ian Anderson

I think that the first proposal would be fair, and that the Braves might be willing to make that deal. However, I don’t think that the Braves would be willing to part with one of their top three prospects (Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, or Anderson) in a deal for Stroman, even if Giles is included. I think Atlanta would be better off making a deal for Stroman alone and then trying to acquire a rental closer like the Giants’ Will Smith in a separate deal and thus avoid trading one of their top prospects."

I liked the Wagu pickup of all the guys we got last year - he seemed to be the most undervalued.

His fippy numbers have consistently looked good all milb, and his ERA for most of it....up until he reached the to level, where the fippys stayed good but the ERA suddenly inflated.

He seems to have decent velo and a full slate of pitches but there's a chance that fastball is just too hittable, even if he's got good enough stuff to get plenty of swings and misses.

I still find him interesting, though.

Is anyone watching the HoF induction? Did I miss Doc?

Allard would get creamed in the AL... he has a fringe fastball at best. Gohara is hurt, and has durability issues as well as serious conditioning issues.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=atl

I would suggest looking at Weigel, Wentz, Muller, Davidson... maybe even Johan Camargo as a buy low candidate with upside. Maybe something like Giles and Sogard for Camargo, Weigel and Wentz?

I'm sure Pache, Waters, Anderson and Wright are mostly off limits.j

Ian Anderson would be a nice add.

But Drew Waters, as much as his peripherals scare me, would plug our one position prospect hole nicely (legit defensive CF).

Kyle Wright seems to be all-stuff no-performance so far as a prospect. Not sure I'm in on that even with his generally high ranking.

I'm starting to think this Gurriel fellow can actually hit...

That HR also has a side benefit of giving Greene a bit of a blemish on his record before the deadline.

Frankly, Waguespack looks to have a more viable starters arsenal than Thornton. Of course he doesn’t have the high spin rate FB that Thornton does.

I will eat crow on Gurriel’s bat. He looks to have more upside through his power than I imagined. That’s a huge help in the rebuild.

UO: Agree on Waguespack. Better command and control would make a difference.

Did Gurriel just up Gile’s value?

If Pache, Waters, Anderson or Wright are offlimits, there's not much point to even looking up AA's number. The Braves have lots of complementary pieces to fill out a deal, but only those 4 are the starting point for a non-rental star.

Wright's in that post-hype prospect land. In his most recent start, his stuff seemed good, his control seemed decent enough, but his command needed work - there were a lot of centre-cut fastballs and never-a-strike breaking balls. If he can refine the command on those a bit, he should be quite good.

his stuff seemed good, his control seemed decent enough, but his command needed work - there were a lot of centre-cut fastballs and never-a-strike breaking balls. If he can refine the command on those a bit, he should be quite good.

This analysis, IMHO, fits most prospects who are close to being good major league starters.

I kind of compare Wright to SRF, really.

and yeah, Gurriel is making me eat crow too. I never ever expected this kind of easy power. He is like a Rios clone talent wise, though with more pep in his step.

Like I said in the other thread, the FO seems to be absolutely crushing it on the IFA market. Gurriel, Pardinho, Moreno, Kirk, Hiraldo, Martinez, Castillo, Lopez, Jimenez.....looking like a hell of a group, really.

The Gurriel contract is looking good right now,too. Maybe great, in fact. Four more years with his age 29 season under 6 million, and only 2.5 million next year.

"That HR also has a side benefit of giving Greene a bit of a blemish on his record before the deadline"

Exactly what I thought when Gurriel hit the HR. Good to see some more people realizing how good Gurriel is. His contract is one of the best in baseball (from a team standpoint). Four more years to go for a 25 year old guy playing at an all-star level, for a total of only about $17.6 million. In 63 games he now has 18 HR's, a 45 HR pace.

Bad base running by Hernandez. Castellanos is killing left handers this year, OPS 1.090 against them before today's walk off against Mayza.

Morosi tweets that several teams looking at Sogard and Hudson.

"Bad base running by Hernandez"

think that one was on the 3rd base coach tbh.

think that one was on the 3rd base coach tbh.

Yep. Again.

AA might well trade Anderson for Stroman and Giles. After all, he traded his best prospect for Price, a rental.

MLB

Wright (22-23): 22.2ip, 17.3k%, 17.3bb%, 8.34era, 7.62fip, 6.17xfip
RFoley (22-23): 46.0ip, 26.2k%, 13.1bb%, 4.70era, 4.98fip, 4.51xfip

AAA

Wright (22-23): 99.0ip, 23.3k%, 7.1bb%, 4.18era, 4.27fip, 4.01xfip
RFoley (22-23): 161.1ip, 26.2k%, 12.7bb%. 4.91era, 4.28fip, 4.29xfip

AA

Wright (22): 109.1ip, 22.5k%, 9.2bb%, 3.70era, 3.34fip, 3.48xfip
RFoley (22): 44.1ip, 29.2k%, 11.2bb%, 2.03era, 3.42fip, 3.37xfip

The problem with dealing Stroman is that he's not a No.1 or 2 starter on a good team. He's an excellent mid-rotation (ie. third starter) arm who occasionally flashes No. 2.

eh, he'd arguably be the #1 on NYY, TB, MIN....probably some others too.

When everyone is healthy, Stroman would be No. 3 behind Severino and Paxton.

Giles may be the best closer in MLB right now. Who else? Saw Smith the other day and he does not have as good stuff as Giles.

Stroman has the 4th best ERA among AL starters right now.

From the "Kiss of Death" dep't, this from today's Sunday Notes:

"Tim Mayza has appeared in 99 big-league games, all with the Toronto Blue Jays, and has a won-loss record of 3-0. Over the past century, only Clay Rapada (8-0, 152 games) and Buddy Boshers (3-0, 100 games) have more pitching appearances without incurring a loss."

Maybe you can argue Giles as a Top 5 closer but at the moment, I would take the following over Giles: Hand, Chapman, Osuna, Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen and Josh Hader.

Never the less, Giles is a dominant arm in a bullpen. He should get a good return.

Asher Wojciechowski has bounced around the league since being part of the AA's Happ trade with Houston. Threw 6 innings of no hit ball vs the Red Sox today, finishing 7.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K's. I'm guessing someone watching him for the 1st time might think he's the next Max Scherzer.

Maybe...but maybe not quite as clearcut there as you would think...


This Year

Stroman (28): 20gs, 67era-, 78fip-, 88xfip-, 4.2fwar32, 4.5rwar32
Paxton (30): 17gs, 90era-, 82fip-, 86xfip-, 3.8fwar32, 2.3rwar32
Severino (25): ---

Last Calendar Year

Stroman (28): 27gs, 78era-, 77fip-, 89xfip-, 4.0fwar32, 3.6rwar32
Paxton (30): 25gs, 91era-, 82fip-, 81xfip-, 3.6war32, 2.4rwar32
Severino (25): 12gs, 129era-, 76fip-, 72xfip-, 4.0fwar32, -0.5rwar32

Career

Stroman (28): 128gs, 88era-, 85fip-, 84xfip-, 3.6fwar32, 3.5rwar32
Paxton (30): 118gs, 86era-, 77fip-, 81xfip-, 4.3fwar32, 3.4rwar32
Severino (25): 85gs, 85era-, 77fip-, 77xfip-, 4.5fwar32, 4.0rwar32

Don't agree Finch...not if you are looking for immediate results. The only one of those who might be better than Giles this year is Hader. Jansen and Chapman are not even close. In fact, Dodgers may be interested in Giles because they have doubts about Jansen.

Giles has better ERA and K's per IP than any of those save Hader who is comparable.

Yates has a better ERA and FIP than Giles. Those 2 and Hand have been dominant. Even Smith and Chapman. Jansen has not been dominant at all this year. Hader has had a HR issue.

I always love your statistical contortions Ugly. How about just WAR last 2 seasons?
Paxton- 5.7
Severino-5.5 (didn't even pitch in 2019)
Tanaka-4.6
Stroman-4.2

Nobody in baseball views Stroman as an ace because he isn't one. He has had a FIP between 3.54 and 3.91 every single season of his career. He is a consistently good to very good pitcher. I mean, you are trying to paint Stroman, Paxton, and Severino as comparable which is just silly Severino has back to back seasons of 5.5 and 5.7 WAR. Stroman has never done anything remotely like that. Paxton has had 3 straight years with higher WAR than Stroman has ever had.

Or look at it this way. Stroman WAR ranking among starters..
In 2019 (qualified)- 25th
2018-2019-(at least 200 innings because Stroman didn't qualify) 44th
2017-2019-(Qualified) 29th
2016-2019 (Qualified) 23rd

This exemplifies who Stroman is. Being around the 25th best starter in baseball is great but it's not someone playoff teams are going to make their #1 starter.

This year, stroman is better than starter on the tanks.

Depends on what stats you want to look at and what time frame you consider. In career FIP. Giles is the 3rd best of that group, at 2.30. Only Chapman (1.99) and Jansen (2.20) are better. Osuna and Hader are in the 2.60's and Yates and Hand are 3.50+. Yates is having a season that is far better than any he has had before, and I guess it depends on how sustainable you thing a breakthrough at age 32 is. I certainly don't think Giles is behind all of those guys, and you could argue he's at least in the middle of that pack. He's certainly one of the best in the game, the reason I'd like to sign him to an extension if the price was reasonable. They're going to need a closer when they're competitive, and whoever they get will likely be inferior to Giles.

...than any starter on the yanks.

And, based on career numbers and aging curve, it would not surprise anyone if stroman was better than Paxton going forward.

Severino? Doesnt look like he'll be starting again this year.

He might come back in relief and get stretched there.
Seems like German has been the best Yankees starter.

One final ode to The Temptations while this thread is still going

I can feel it in the air, it's there everywhere
Oh Marcus I'm losing you
I can feel it in my bones
any day you'll be up and gone
Oh Marcus I'm losing you

Not a bad series. Stroman and Giles looked good.
Also blew a save from Greene Shane Greene who is in competition with Giles.

Some of the hitters have gone cold again. Hernandez was the hottest Jays hitter this week.

I’m hoping SF keeps winning and that they decide not to make Bumgarner available in a trade, further tightening the starting pitcher market and driving up Stroman’s value.

I’m still convinced that Stroman is going to have to make at least one more start for the Jays. Let’s hope that it’s a dominant one. The FO needs all the help they can get in pushing a deal (with a good return) over the finish line.

Bumgarner will be a very late decision and some teams will not want to wait that long for a possible. Some teams will prefer the extra year of control. I don't see him as competing with Stroman as the two should appeal to different clubs. Even without the control, I think Stroman would have more general appeal that Bumgarner at this time.
As there is more demand than supply, trading our guys should not be a problem.

I suspect that with Houston having a few pitchers reaching FA after this season, their FO will find the extra year of control that comes with Stroman appealing.

For Stroman the questions are ...
A) how desperate is another team which is close to the playoffs?
B) how healthy is Stroman?

Answer to B seems to be he is OK. Plus of course there aren't many guys around anymore who can say they have 2 200 IP seasons under their belts. Paxton's peak is 160 for example.

The key for the Jays is a team that is close who needs, is begging for, a solid guy who can eat innings and be solid in the playoffs.

Yankees: lots of good pitchers, but Happ (over 200 only in 2016 with playoffs added in) and Tanaka (never had 200 IP between regular plus post season) are the only ones I'd bet on to be healthy.

Houston: Killer team in all respects, but Stroman could be the final piece to get them over the top. How badly do they want a second title is the question. One rotation slot is the last item on the shopping list I'd think. Maybe one more in the pen for safety too.

Minnesota: solid rotation with a couple of good backups, I don't see a real fit there

Cleveland: no ace, but lots of good guys. Stroman would be a good fit here too, but not vital as it is the AL Central.

Tampa: home of the opener - Stroman would be nice, especially if the Jays eat his salary. This is where it would be a great fit, but would Tampa give up the required talent to get the Jays to eat a few million?

Boston: Has a few holes but running out of prospects. Don't see a fit here.

Oakland: Rotation looks decent so far, they rarely risk much. Doubtful.

Atlanta: Of the starting 5 only 2 are healthy at the moment or not in the minors. This is a perfect "desperate for someone like Stroman" situation. Their closer has blown 7 saves too so I see this as the perfect trading partner. Plus AA has shown a willingness to trade prospects to get to the playoffs before.

Kids after me so that'll be all I check for now.

Dalton Pompey's rehab ends tomorrow. he has to be added to the major league roster or DFA'd.

John Lott has a good interview with Pompey at the Athletic.

You're the connected one Gerry. Will he be playing in Toronto tomorrow or looking for a new team?

I think he will be DFA'd, go unclaimed, and stay with Buffalo.

On that topic Edwin Jackson cleared waivers and opted to become a free agent.

Nick Kingham cleared too and accepted an assignment to Buffalo.

Thanks for the updates.

I think it's likely too, but I don't fully agree with it. CF is a big gaping hole for us and we are wasting a down season by not spending more time on putting actual candidates out there.

I'm thinking with Pompey the Jays question is who is more likely to survive waivers. Pompey (Mr. Injury 0.6 bWAR 0.2 fWAR lifetime, just a 607 OPS in the minors so far over 47 PA) or Billy McKinney (80 OPS+, -0.1 bWAR on the season 0 lifetime, -0.4 fWAR lifetime and this season).

I'd go for Pompey and just cut the losses on McKinney but I suspect the GM and front office saw something in McKinney (no idea what) when they traded Happ for him and Drury. Since I think McKinney has options left (has already been down this season) I'd send him to AAA (886 OPS there earlier this season over 110 PA) and take Pompey.

Of note: McKinney has hit well in July (just 4 games but 308/357/692 so far so good) thus messing this up a bit. Smoak is hurting his trade value in July with a 555 OPS, worst on the team for guys with more than 12 PA's this month. Biggio is at 564 so far. Tellez was at 589 before going down. We need some trades to happen already to clear out space again. Sogard, Glavis, Smoak all are on the block I figure - get a deal done already!

I've been having fun on https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

which gives you an idea of what a package could look like.

Bumgarner's been on fire lately. ERA of 1.55 in his last 5 starts, with 35 K's and only 5 walks. He pitched a complete game last time out. He kind of stumbled for a while, but he seems to be back. He's only 29 - you think he's older because of the great career he's had. Teams will remember that he almost single-handedly won the 2014 post season and World Series for the Giants. Plus, he can hit. If they make him available, I think he's the #1 starter that teams will want for this year, if they think they have a World Series shot.

Pompey probably hasn't done enough for the Jays to be very confident in him, but he is hitting .316 since he moved up to Buffalo, although with no power. After all that they've been through with him, without giving up on him, and with a glaring need in CF, I wouldn't be surprised if they activated him.

Another bad game for Reid-Foley today, giving up 6 runs, raising his ERA to 6.33 with Buffalo.

"Pompey probably hasn't done enough for the Jays to be very confident in him, but he is hitting .316 since he moved up to Buffalo, although with no power. After all that they've been through with him, without giving up on him, and with a glaring need in CF, I wouldn't be surprised if they activated him."

I could see it going both ways. Pompey hasn't done anything deserve a major league shot in years but Jays are rebuilding anyway. The only issue is that there are a lot of guys they want to give looks too and all are more deserving than Pompey right now. The other thing is that Pompey clearly isn't ready for the majors right now. In his 47 PAs on rehab, he's struck out 30% of the time with terrible numbers. This is normal after a very long layoff He probably needs another 50-100 PAs in the minors at least. Would any team claim him? I think, probably not. He is 26, is clearly not ready to play in the majors right now, hasn't had a good minor league season since 2015, and has 0 minor league options left which robs you of the flexibility you want with marginal players.

By any reasonable definition Stroman is a "number 1" starter ( i.e. One of the 30 best starters in mlb, one number one per club), but not an ACE starter (i.e. One of the top 10 pitchers in the game, the top starter on playoff teams). That should still be plenty valuable, especially with the extra year of control and the prospect you get at the end for the QO turned down.

The jays don't need to sell because Stroman would still be good for us and very likely worth a fair bit a year from now at that break too. But not needing to sell should mean can hold out and negotiate for a better return. Hence if we don't get a good offer, don't deal.

Another plus is that Stroman is squarely in his prime, with great stuff and enough experience (including postseason experience) and savvy to be very useful to a contender this year and next.

Minnesota is mostly interested in Giles, but they would want Stroman as well before they include a top prospect.

Cleveland could probably use Giles, but what they really need is outfielders. They would love to unload Bauer.

Tampa is probably out of buying now. They really needed to get EE instead of letting him go to NYY for a low prospect and some money.

Boston would take Giles, but I don't know what the return would be like.

Both Hernandez and Mckinney had good weeks. I think Pompey stays in Buffalo.

To us Stroman is a big game pitcher, but his postseason line is 1-1 with an ERA of 4.40.
Who knows what others see?

Remember that AA, who operates in the dark, may be working on a trade for Stroman and Giles. The Braves are a good match for a trade: Stroman would benefit from the Braves’ infield defense, the Braves need a SP and a closer, AA values elite talent (which describes Stroman and Giles), the Braves have a deep farm system, and a trade with them avoids the uncomfortable optics that go with the Jays helping out their AL East arch-rivals with their postseason ambitions on an annual basis.

I like to keep in mind that a big potential danger with trades is timing.

Donaldson is a great example. 2017 cost him about 150 ABs because of injury. But 415 ABs with 33 Hrs looked good to me going into 2018. His 2018 season drastically reduced his trade value. We all know why he was kept for the 2018 season.

Stroman and Giles don't need to be kept for 2020 because our expectations of contending are low. If kept a bad performance in 2020 will reduce their trade value. The return on trading them has to be acceptable whenever they are traded. We know that.

It is best that the FO follow their philosophy of risk and return without factoring in bad luck due to injury. IMO.

That Pompey would require a 25 man spot probably means he passes through waivers unless a team like the Royals that love speed claims him and then try to sneak him through waivers after a few days - hope he stays in org. as I have a sentimental attachment to him since he was drafted.

Two other points on Pompey.

First I have seen it reported that the Jays have to decide today and I have also seen they have until Wednesday. Not sure which is correct.

After his latest concussion, Pompey had to retrain his eyes to work for life and for baseball. He says he is better but not 100%.

At each level, the game got faster. He says he’s still catching up.

“There are times when my eyes kind of twitch out for a second,” he said, “but I don’t have headaches or anything like that. I can see spin on the ball without any issue.

“I’m not to the point where I’m like, ‘Man, I’m right there,’ but I’m really close. It’s just a lot on me mentally.”

Got a chuckle from a scouts comment on the O's Givens:

"His velocity's ticking up," says one scout. "He's pitching like he wants to get out of there."

I believe it's that Pompey's rehab ends today, but that they have 2 days to decide on DFAing or adding to the roster, so both Monday and Wednesday are sort of correct.

Seems like the Cubs are interested in Sogard to replace Zobrist.

It's nice to see some of the skeptics coming around on Gurriel - I remember saying that I was giving Gurriel a mulligan on his 2017 season because of the long layoff after escaping Cuba while some posters were already writing him off - It would be nice if some credit was given to the FO for what appears a smart signing.

There will likely be some deletions from the 25 man roster over the next days. Why not option McKinney and bring up Pompey. When someone from the active roster is traded, McKinney can be recalled.

This off season I read an article on the Gurriel family. Yuli and Lourdes have to chat with their dad after each game and go over each AB in that game. They a close, wonderful family. They live in Florida now.

Lourdes Sr never got to play in the Majors. He was a superstar and manager for the national Cuban team. So incredibly detailed instructions from their dad. Since Lourdes Jr had a long run of multi hit games last year I expected huge improvement this year. It did not happen early this year, which was a big disappointment. But he is doing better than I expected overall ( due to the current hot hitting streak.)

"Why not option McKinney and bring up Pompey. When someone from the active roster is traded, McKinney can be recalled."

Because Pompey is clearly not ready to be in the majors so you're carrying Pompey like a Rule V guy where he doesn't really play but eats a roster spot and there is never any fixing it because you can never send him down to get regular PAs. Maybe it's worth it but probably not and I can also see the Jays sending him through waivers. Really, you want Pompey to hit in the minors and just stay healthy for a month before thinking about promoting him. The question is how much roster manipulation do you want to do for a 26 YO who can't stay healthy and when he has managed to has shown no signs of being a major leaguer? I'd be fine either way but my personal inclination would be to try to sneak him through waivers now when he's pretty useless to a major league team.

I have zero issues with Pompey not getting called up if he's isn't 100%. He won't have any chance for success if that's the case. On the other hand, the fact that Hernandez and Drury have had hot weeks or hot 20 games shouldn't act as a barrier to cutting one or both of them at any time (if they want to look at Pompey or anyone else). They're both within spitting distance of 27 and between the two of them they've had almost 2500 PA's in the majors and have produced an aggregate of about 1 WAR. There's no rush to cut them but worrying about keeping either one of them should never be part of the calculus behind any decision making.

It seems unlikely to me that anyone would claim Pompey. If he has the option of refusing an assignment to the minors and becoming a free agent, I could see him wanting a change of scenery enough to do it. However, that athletic article makes it seem like he is more likely than not to stay. Especially with the ongoing concussion/vision symptoms.

Bluebird Banter has updated their options table, which is super useful this time of year as people dream on roster machinations.
https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/pages/blue-jays-option-and-outright-status
McKinney has options, as does Drury - but if you keep Drury on the roster all year, or option him for less than 20 days, I believe he still keeps that option next year, which could be valuable to the team. 

I went to the game in Buffalo yesterday and Pompey looked good to me, but with the number of younger, healthier OF options, I'm assuming the FO will try sneaking him through waivers.  Lefty Taylor Saucedo, a guy Gerry mentioned recently, was the one longshot that caught my eye - he comes right at hitters and is intimidating on the mound.  He might be worth taking a look at in the big league pen down the stretch.