That's gotta be it for Jackson. If things didn't end badly they would never end...

It's an ugly end... any ideas as to why a guy like James Shields hasn't/wouldn't get brought in? I realize he wants a ML deal but the downside is relatively low and the need for innings is growing quite acute.

any ideas as to why a guy like James Shields hasn't/wouldn't get brought in?

I'd be willing to give Josh Towers a look by now. At any rate - Jackson must never, ever pitch for this team again. Allowing that to happen is a great, flashing "EFF YOU" to the people in the seats and the other 24 guys in the room. Sure, they need someone to give them innings but Jackson's so bad he can't even do that.

What does Cavan Biggio have to do to get noticed? Looking more and more legit.

Possible tire kicks, looking at unsigned free agents. No idea who has actually retired of course: Brandon McCarthy, James SHields, Doug Fister, Bartolo? Yeesh (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/available/). It's June, you just want a guy that can give you 5 innings and 3 runs against more often than not. The team can't trade Stroman at this point without at least getting a rotation placeholder back.

Biggio is not trying to get noticed. He's just playing the game like he can.
He's still getting a lot of strikeouts on bad calls.
If Bichette can keep up with the other guys things will turn sooner than later.

Now, I hope that's it for E-Jacks.

Two posts in the old Astros thread.
Call up Paulino, dump Jackson. When /if Borucki is healthy, which was supposed to be sometime this month, make a decision from there.

Biggio’s at-bats are a thing of beauty.

Almost never swings at a bad pitch. Almost always passes on close pitches he doesn’t want to swing at, ball or strike. Very happy to go deep in the count, see lots of pitches. Not afraid to be called out on strikes or go down swinging after he’s seen lots of pitches. Very happy to take a walk if he doesn’t get a pitch he likes. Clearly has a plan and doesn’t get himself out.

We can only hope it rubs off on many of his teammates.

Brandon McCarthy is definitely retired, and working in the Texas front office. But Bartolo... tanned, rested, ready.

Well, him or Shields, right? (Fister retired this off-season, despite "multiple major-league" offers. According to his agent.)

Good ol' R.A. Dickey is still kicking. Missed last season, but in 2017 had a 102 ERA+, 95+ every year from 2009 to 2017. Odd no one signed him last year. In 2017 he still threw 190 innings. Yeah, he tortures your catchers but Maile could handle it I suspect, not like he has a great bat to be damaged.

Of course, I love knuckleballers - was a big fan of the Neikro's and was at Phil's first start for the Jays back in '87 - a shame Jimy Williams was too poor a manager to know that knuckleballers cannot have too much rest or they lose it - Jimy was easily the biggest nightmare of a manager we've seen, even over the guy who faked his military career imo - heck, he put Cecil Fielder at 3B and 2B for crying out loud and played a washed up Willie Upshaw everyday (with a sub 100 OPS+ for the 2nd year in a row) at 1B over young versions of Fred McGriff and Cecil Fielder.

Yeah Biggio looks great. Ks aren't much of a problem with his elite power and patience.

LF/1B long-term though I think.

So is the hidden power of the Edwin Jackson games some next level strategy mojo about padding the stats of the opposing hitters so that they get paid more in arbitration/free agency? It has to be some explanation.

He was a good pitcher from 2008-2012, and last year in 2018 (although may have been BABIP lucky). But 2019 has not been nice to him. In fact, his 2018 contribution was 1.6 WAR, and in 2019 already he's put up -1.3 WAR nearly matching that size in the opposite direction!

If Bartolo's still on a diet of fried chicken and stem cells then I say go for it. How much worse can it really get?

I'm loving that Biggio is getting his due. I think offensively (statistically) he likely profiles similarly to Troy Glaus, but possibly with Catalanotto's eye. Any player that can take pitches excites me, and is sorely needed on a low OBP, first pitch swinging team.

This year is all about finding out which players are long-term pieces. So far, to me, it looks like Vlad, Gurriel, and Biggio are major leaguers (And Grichuk even though I will never understand that extension). I have hope for Jansen and Teoscar as well. For pitchers, only Thornton looks like a guy who will be useful longer term (Stroman and Giles too but I think they'll be traded). McKinney and Tellez have both dropped off the "likely to be useful" list for me. If Bichette develops well, the Jays could have a core of hitters to build around. Their starting pitching however, is dire. They need to keep collecting young arms.

I would imagine the team will be trying to add as many near ready SP prospects as possible in trades this summer. Not sure how many teams will be willing to give that up for Giles or Stroman, but that's clearly a huge hole in the organization right now.

I agree that Vlad, Biggio, and Gurriel (as an OF) so far look like the only ones who can be long-term pieces. Bichette whenever he comes up should be included in that group. Jansen will likely improve. Alford is hit or miss. Definitely agree the Grichuk extension was unnecessary. Even if it's decent value for the type of player he is, there is very little surplus potential there unless his bat takes another step forward, and 2 WAR players are not highly valued in today's market. But he'll have to be included in any future lineup so just have to hope he improves.

It will be interesting to see what the Jays get for their trade pieces this summer. This will probably be the most important trade deadline in Atkins' career as this will be the last of the remaining vets he could move for young pieces (Stroman, Giles, Sanchez, Smoak, etc). If there are more McKinney/Drury deals on the way, then the rebuild will just get longer and more excruciating. He can't afford to get lesser returns as the FO missed opportunities with other trade pieces last year either due to circumstances (Donaldson, Osuna) or just making bad trades (Happ).

James Shields wants to pitch for a contender and make good money because he feels his numbers were inflated because he went deep into games to preserve the CWS bullpen and kids every 5th day...thats the vibe from the Athletic spread that was done on him earlier in the season.

Reports have Julian Merryweather throwing 97-100 with control...can anybody find more info on this...Blue Jays talk host referenced this from reports in the organization last night.

Gerrit Cole is a free agent this off season...would be risky but thats the type of arm Jays need along with a Stroman.

If I were GM id offer Alford, C prospect and Paulino to the Tigers for Matt Manning and Miguel Cabrera. I wonder if that would entice them to give up a top SP prospect.

Tellez has all of five hits, without a BB, so far this June.  Perhaps some time in Buffalo would help, along with giving Vlad some reps at 1B.  Than again, Drury would likely get more time at 3B and he's been struggling all year.  Does he still have options?  any word on the Travis injury?  Last I saw - 3 weeks ago - the team was waiting for him to be asymptomatic before letting him resume baseball activities

After watching Vlady in the Arizona Fall League and on TV in the majors, I doubt he will develop into the Uber prospect we had hoped for. He appears to have some defensive limitations and a move to 1B won’t solve all of them. Also, from the first time I saw him he has been unable to identify a curve ball. His value is still very high. I think the Jays should try to solve their pitching deficit by trading Vlady.

Here's an article on Merryweather's rehab.  David Phelps was with him and came away impressed.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-woes-may-lead-post-tommy-john-reunion-phelps-merryweather/
Trading Vlad would be far bolder than anything this FO has ever done, and likely bolder than just about any GM in the game would do.  I can't even conceive of a fair deal for the kid.   I'm looking forward to watching him mash at the Dome for the next six years.

Waguespack must be very close to a return. Wonder if one of the prospects will make the next start in the number 5 spot.

Vladdy has mashed fastballs. He has not been able to see good curveballs and has not been able to fix that shortcoming over the past 2 season. But I think you’re right, the FO has no stomach for bold moves. The Jays are a corporate entity and Vladdy is the flag at the front of the promotional parade. FO could look very bad if he does not become an elite hitter.

I think Vladdy's upside is still a Miguel Cabrera type of career. Triple Crown threat at the plate, but a liability on the bases and in the field, even at 1B. As 20-year olds, they have similar stats. Cabrera improved greatly in Year 2 and by Year 3 was a superstar, playing at that level for 12 seasons, even while struggling for several years in the OF and at 3B.

Will Vladdy continue to improve like this? I have some doubts. His conditioning is a big red flag for me. He didn't show up to shape in camp. He doesn't always appear to hustle. Statcast pegs him as having 34th percentile sprint speed, yet he often seems like the slowest guy on the field. Therefore, I question whether he'll put in the effort required to become a truly great hitter. His talent alone will keep him in the majors for a long time, but if doesn't have the drive to keep learning and keep adapting, he definitely won't live up to expectations.

As you said, the first real test is learning to hit a breaking ball. He has just 7 hits against 203 breaking balls this year (6 singles and a double). He has 28 hits (incl 12 XBH) against 375 fastballs. I suspect he'll be seeing a lot of breaking balls over the rest of the season, and if this doesn't improve significantly it will be yet another big red flag against him.

I think Vlad will hit projections in which Miggy is a perfect comp. He will be worth a ton just like Miguel and Frank Thomas were, but in today's baseball age it's not as much as in the past since there is so much new value in defense.

"I think the Jays should try to solve their pitching deficit by trading Vlady."

I would be all over this just because teams would be lining up to trade for him simply because of his Miggy-like projection. This is the kind of deal that would get you two bonafide ace prospects plus. Just for fun:

Casey Mize
Matt Manning
Miguel Cabrera
Unnamed upside prospect in A ball #1
Unnamed upside prospect in A ball #2

for

Vlad
Hernandez
Drury or Tellez

Once teams recognized that Vernon Wells could not see the curve ball, it changed his career. I also have concerns about Vladdy’s ability to work on adaptations; thus the VW comparison. I like Biggio’s hit skills better than Vladdy’s.

whelp. so much for this rebuild. on to the next one I guess.

C Mize shoulder inflammation. 7 day IL.

F Whitley 7 day IL. Shoulder fatigue.

M Kopech 60 day DL.

N Pearson Injury prone. Ok for now but for how long?

Vlad Still young. Too heavy and slow. Poor defense. In a SSS he has not dominated the ML.

IMO the above players are all struggling. And also based on my statistical gut feelings 1 will fail. Optimistically I also feel 1 will dominate.

I would be a lot more comfortable I had a bigger list of struggling young players.

Gonna pump the brakes a bit. On the hitting side, we're talking a 20 yr old kid here. As hitters mature from 20/21 yr olds to 24/25, the common refrain has been the "doubles turn into home runs". This kid at 20 is hitting balls as hard, sorry, harder than almost any other player in baseball.

Now Vlad's weight is a definite concern for a 20 yr old. On the plus side, he has plenty of resources at his disposal to help. How he handles it going forward will say a lot about how good, or great he wants to be. And it's carrying that extra weight that's contributing to his defensive issues, but again, he's 20. Almost all non-elite defenders that age are improving their defence in the low minors.

Casey Mize is 'struggling'? His 0.92 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, and 6.25 K:BB ratio doesn't sound like struggling. Very few players are injury free in their career.

Most hitters don't face that many good breaking balls before the major leagues, it's certainly going to take Guerrero a lot of time to learn at the major leagues. I don't understand the expectations that these kids will come up and dominate. It takes most rookies multiple years. Heck, it took Smoak most of a decade.

If some of the responses are to my post. Thank you. I needed the attention.

I was also being sarcastic in that post.

My positive take is that Vlad could have come up last year. We all know why he did not get promoted. So 19 years old for the 2018 season if promoted. Tellez got promoted and is now approaching 300 ABs with 15 hr. Vlad would also be approaching 300 ABs and 15 Hrs. Both working at refining their game.

Vlad is on pace for around a 2 WAR season as a 20 YO. He's going to be an amazing hitter. Why would a rebuilding team trade him? Sure, if SD offers you Tatis and Paddack, you'd do it, but nobody is going to give you that kind of offer. He's going to be great. Enjoy it.

I'm not sure which is sillier - that people are ready to give up on the 20-year-old who's already doing pretty OK against MLB pitching, or the idea that other teams will give up their top prospects for him if he really is just a big fat guy who'll never be able to hit a breaking ball.

Feeling a little trollish. Not much middle ground here! Vlad has incredible natural talent. (As did VW) Vlad has lowered the probability he becomes elite because of the flaws he has demonstrated and a propensity to lack diligence in solving them. IMHO His weight problem has demonstrated a difficulty or perhaps inability to solve a crucial problem. He might become very good, but I doubt he becomes elite either as a hitter or as an all around player.

Vlad has been described as a generational prospect. If there are GMs who believe that, the Jays should explore returns.

Smoaky, who hasn't played in three days, is hitting the IL with a sore or injured quadricep. Shafer back up in what is known as a reaction to an Edwin Jackson appearance.

The idea that you would give up on Vlad because he is merely very good is ridiculous.

And the crap that he gets for his defense seems to be unwarranted. He isn't going to win any gold gloves, but he seems a lot sharper than people are giving him credit for. I think he can be an average defensive player while being a dominating bat.

If he isn't good enough now, then no young player is ever good enough.

Well he should never have been playing 3B. That's one of many examples of this FO being annoyingly naive when it comes to defense.

But the kid will be in the running for best hitter in baseball in most of his years in the league.

Edwin Jackson has a sore back, might have to go on the IL. Billy McKinney is rumoured to be in Toronto too.

Edwin Jackson has a sore back, might have to go on the IL.

Maybe whiplash from constantly spinning his head around last night.

Vlad has weight issues. He has to get in better shape if he wants to play 3B as he has stated in the past. Move him to 1B/DH there is far less incentive - maybe no incentive. And much of his defensive problem is weight related, coming in on slow rollers/choppers.

Is it my imagination or has Rafael Devers shed some pounds this year? I saw a highlight where I thought he looked thinner.

Vlad will shed some pounds and he's going to be an awesome hitter. Yes probably he'll be a 1B or DH long term but that's what most people expected.

From his breakout two hr game in San Francisco until getting hit on the hand, he put up a .300/.350/.550 slash line, with a normal .305 babip. He's facing major league breaking balls for the first time, and just over three months ago he was still a teenager. I think he'll be fine.

FO could look very bad if he does not become an elite hitter.

They'd also look very bad if they trade him for pitching prospects that don't become great, and Vlad becomes the elite hitter everyone expects him to.

Jays should trade Vlad for a top prospect who shows the promise to be a generational talent. Then trade that guy for a top prospect who may become a generational talent. I'm onboard with the re-re-rebuilding project. Rebuilding forever!

I guess these posts show what Edwin Jackson brings to the fanbase.

I KNOW what you are saying cristaylor!!! Cheers!!!

That's one of many examples of this FO being annoyingly naive when it comes to defense.

On the other hand, with the way the game is developing, maybe not. Maybe they're ahead of the curve. Defense should surely be of less importance as fewer and fewer balls are put in play. And if the ball isn't being put in play, well hell - you could stick me at third base, and I need a relay man just to get the ball across the diamond. The day approaches when plate appearances that don't end in one of the Three True Outcomes will be the exception.

The old wisecrack about baseball was that it crammed five minutes of action into three hours. So let's get rid of the five minutes. And man, I can't imagine paying money to watch that sort of thing.

End of Old Fogey rant.

Thanks Magpie. I think that you have given this some thought.

I am old. So Willie Wilson has less value today because defense is less valued.
How bad do you have to be on a consistent level? J Cansenco was valued for his bat and I saw a Hi light reel where he misplayed a fly ball and it hit him in the head. Scored an error I believe as it made contact with the player. But great hitting against a weak bullpen can more than make up for that.

Cole Hamels just rang up career strikeout number 2,500. He's just the 10th LH in history to accomplish that, and before the year is out he should overtake Jerry Koosman and Warren Spahn and - at the very least - come quite close to catching up with Tom Glavine and Chuck Finley. He's never had a bad season. The only significant injury he's had was the oblique strain that cost him 9 or 10 starts in 2017. By the time he's done, he may have 200 wins and be just the fourth LH pitcher to clear 3,000 strikeouts. He's even got a World Series MVP on his resume. Not too shabby.

Red Sox refused to trade elite prospect blake swihart for the overpaid cole hamels. They were widely praised for their decision.

Yup. Even really successful front offices do really dumb stuff. All the time. Over and over.

Gives one hope, surely.

In fact, when it comes to front offices doing really dumb stuff, the Blue Jays were about as far ahead of that curve as it's possible to be. They pulled off something really dumb before they'd even played a single game. (That would be when Peter Bavasi vetoed trading Bill Singer to the Yankees for Ron Guidry.)

"I'm onboard with the re-re-rebuilding project"

And remember, when the team is re-re-rebuilt, the money will be there to spend on the team! (We promise. Really.)

I remember the Singer for Guidry trade. Singer was the valued veteran that Bavasi wanted.

Guerrero is interesting. DHing a bit too much for my taste now, but the problem might be just having Drury on the team.

Bref gives Vladdy 0.7 oWar and  a  0.2 dWar on pace for over 3 bWAR for 160 games.
For comparison, Drury gets 0 oWAR and 0.1 dWAR for a grand total of 0 WAR.

Fangraphs has Vladdy at -1.3 off and -0.3 def  which sums up to 0.4 fWAR, (mostly positional value from playing 3B?) which rounds up to less than 2 fWAR for a full year.
 For comparison Drury gets -8.5 off and -0.6 def for a total of -0.3 fWAR.

Guerrero should hit enough to play anywhere. You can get either a defender at 3B or a hitter at 1B for close to replacement value, but it's hard to get a good bat/glove combo at 3B. Overly expensive through both trade or free agency.  Maybe Groshans or Hiraldo can move Guerrero off 3B, but not before 2023.

Guerrero has DH'd the last couple of games because he was hit on the hand by a pitch and only sat out 1 game - they don't want to push it if his hand is still sore. I have to say that I've been disappointed with Guerrero's strike zone judgement. This was always mentioned as a huge asset for him, that he wouldn't chase pitches out of the zone, but I haven't really seen that kind of guy so far. Still, a 20 year old with an OPS of .765 in the big leagues is quite remarkable. He's going to be really good, but maybe not quite as overwhelming as we thought. Eloy Jimenez was supposed to be an incredible prospect before this year, too, and he's 2 years, 4 months older than Vladdy, and has a nearly identical OPS of .777.

"On the other hand, with the way the game is developing, maybe not. Maybe they're ahead of the curve. Defense should surely be of less importance as fewer and fewer balls are put in play."

This absolutely true and you see it across baseball. Teams are keeping poorer defenders at positions for longer, moving guys to positions they've never played, etc...Shortstops are fielding 13% fewer plays than they did a decade ago. Not only that, but the advent of the shift and defensive positioning done through analysis means that players are positioned better to make plays and individual defense matters less. There are a number of articles on this but this is a good one below... Of note, it's teams like Tampa, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Cubs, and Dodgers who are experimenting with positions the most. The Dodgers, for example, played Barnes, a catcher, all over the diamond. Muncy is a 1Bman but has also played 3B and 2B this year. Bellinger came up as a 1Bman but played 78 games in CF last year. Taylor and Hernandez also both play multiple positions.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseball-positions-are-starting-to-lose-their-meaning/

Vladdy was always a man playing among children.
For the first time in his life, he's in a competitive environment.
He'll keep improving.

At 19, Trout could only manage an OPS of .672 and was sent back to AAA.
By the next year he was at .963.

Over the last 7 games, Biggio, Hernandez and Gurriel have OPS over 1000.
Jansen only managed .375 and Drury .133.
Tellez .567 and Grichuk .533 and both making outs on the basepaths last night.

They need to ship Drury out of town as part of a package when they trade a vet this year.
Or just send him to AAA and hope someone claim him.

Stroman to the Yanks rumours starting to circulate.

go yanks go.

remember, guys, as bad as it is right now, it looks like it's gonna get even worse.

I don't know if that's worse, depending on the return Stroman and Giles are players that ought to be moved.

I wonder if the changes to the deadline rules will alter the types of deals that go down causing teams to become more willing to part with better prospects than in the last few years.

Clint Frazier is almost 25, projects as a league average bat once his babip calms down, and is bad defensively.

I see a fit.

I would want more than C Frazier. They should throw in some money. Pay some of Tulo's contract.

Atkins trading with Cashman once was bad enough. Do not do it again, please.

Re: Vladdy and curve balls...

I seem to remember after a hot start in his rookie season, Delgado was sent back to the minors because he couldn't hit breaking balls. He did figure it out, although defensively, he ended up being moved from his original position (C).

I don't think Jays have any want or need for Frazier with Gurriel looking so good in left.

I am guessing that uglyone was being sarcastic, that Frazier is the caliber of player he'd expect this front office to get for Stroman.

Besides they'd play him in CF anyways.

I don’t think that the FO is naive at all about defensive value. I really think that that sells their baseball knowledge short. I do think we have enough data to conclude that they don’t place much value on a player’s defensive value. Now, maybe, in that view they are ahead of the curve. Certainly there are fewer balls put in play in total and fewer ground balls (relatively). I can accept a league wide trend of placing less infield defensive value than in the 1990’s (for example). I don’t think the data supports the manner in which the Jays have put almost no value on outfield defence the past few years. I also think that de-emphasizing defence was an odd choice for the Jays given, notwithstanding the league wide trends, the Jays have have been employing a pitching staff that puts the ball in play more than almost any other team in baseball. The FO has a few blind spots on this issue.

Atkins trading with Cashman once was bad enough. Do not do it again, please.
Yeah seriously. I wouldn't have a strict "never trade in your division" policy but Cashman never seems to lose a trade. I wouldn't trade Stroman to NYY simply because of that.

Frazier and Sheffield were the big price for Andrew Miller.
Sheffield was shipped back to Seattle for the Big Maple. He's been so bad in AAA that instead of being promoted as planned, he's gone back to AA.

"I don’t think that the FO is naive at all about defensive value. I really think that that sells their baseball knowledge short. I do think we have enough data to conclude that they don’t place much value on a player’s defensive value."

I think the fact that they were forced to move the likes of gurriel and Grichuk off their projected positions so quickly, and are persisting with this imo futile attempt to make vladdy a viable 3B, reveals more than just a lack of value placed on defense.

I think the big question for the FO on Stroman is if the best they can get is not good enough, will they go to Plan B and try to sign him to an extension. Yes there’s risk but if they are picking up lower ceiling player(s), then it’s probably better to take the risk, unless the two sides don’t think a deal is doable.

It would in most years be pretty strange to have 3 left-handed hitters in the starting lineup against Andrew Heaney unless they were awfully good.  Not this year, and frankly it's pretty much the bottom of the priority list. 

I think an ongoing problem with this front office is that they don’t say anything particularly insightful in public, so it’s hard to know how astute they really are. The heavy reliance on corporate jargon suggests the opposite, although I suppose you could argue that this has a sort of obfuscating utility in some situations.

Probably the front office is currently looking to acquire individual player value wherever they can find it, and they’ll sort out what kind of team they have later (that is, defense- or offense-first).

I don't mind trading a rental to the Yankees, but I wouldn't want to see the Jays facing Stroman on a regular basis.

Grichuk is primarily a right fielder. He plays center only because nobody else has stepped up.
Gurriel seems to be actually good in left field. No complaint there.
If Donaldson had actually been decent, moving Guerrero might have made sense.
Right now, it's either Gerrero at 3B or a replacement player.
Drury had a chance to steal the position from Guerrero and I sure hope that's not happening.
There are no internal options and they need to focus on getting pitchers, not more infielders.
With Gurriel in left field, there are not that many spot left for left bats.
If Biggio sticks at 2B, that's a huge plus.
A slow right handed Guerrero at first base would be about as good as EE was.
We'll be complaining about that soon enough.

Last time I checked neither Machado nor Harper are playing well enough to deserve their salary.
The Padres will be selling again and the Phillies need to make some big moves if they want to make the playoffs.

I'm less worried about the team facing Stroman while they're not competitive than I am of the Yankees having a worthwhile quality offer.

Astros have lost 5 in a row. Hopefully, they will soon realize how important Stroman could be to their WS hopes.

Alright Astros, I'll give you Stroman for a package centering on Tucker and Whitley. Maybe throw in Perez and Beer while you're at it!

Realistically though I'd prefer trying to get someone like Tucker over Frazier. But I still see very limited logic in trading Stroman if an extension is a feasible option.

Baseball transactions are like jokes. If you need to explain then...

There's only 3 positions where you can play a great defender with low offense.
That's catcher, shortstop and centerfielder.
Even if you have gold gloves are every position,  the other teams will score a bunch of runs with walks and homeruns.

I'm not sure what Hernandez is worth in center. I expect to see Alford at some point.
Jansen is providing good defense but is still at replacement level.
I'd like to see if McGuire can hit more than Maile. If not there are offensive catchers working their way through the system.
Galvis is not providing excess defensive value but hits enough to be worth 1 WAR or 2.
More importantly, we should have a peek at Bichette in a month or 2.
Tellez needs to hit more and once you remove Drury the rest of team isn't that bad.

The September rotation could be completely different.
Thornton  threw 124 innings last year. I don't know if they let him go all the way.

Good point on Thornton. I imagine he will be held to 150-160 innings.

I agree that starting three lefthanders against Heaney isn’t ideal; however, the only way to extract any good out of a 100+ loss season is to learn something about your young players. I’m in favour of playing Tellez and Biggio on a near full time basis, to find out as much as possible about their future usefulness. Now, Drury’s continued playing time is less defensible.

Hey at least Sanchez is letting us not have to worry about the Boras effect this offseason.

turns out, Rowdy is a lefty masher.

Does Sanchez have any trade value right now? There are many tanking teams and many pitchers available. Sanchez would be low on the list.

At this stage Sanchez should really go to the bullpen but the Jays need starters and I don't think Sanchez sees himself as a reliever.

I think the Jays will have to keep him through the season and hope he gets better somehow.

I agree Gerry. I don't think he can be traded now.

Yep, the cruel irony of our situation is the better the players play the more likely we'll lose them, and the worse they play the more likely we keep them.

I think the Jays should keep Stroman. Great player, gets and loves Toronto...just give him five or six years and then keep adding prospect talent in the draft and in other ways. Stop being so damn scaredy and cheap.

I so rarely watch and they never fail to remind me why when I do.

There was a time when Trout and Harper were mention in the same breath. Not any more.

Meanwhile, Tellez is looking like the reincarnation of Dave Kingman. Hit long but not often.

I agree on Stroman - he seems durable and is a solid #1 type. A 5 year $100 million deal should be an easy choice for the Jays, Stroman might want more though. How far to go with him? FanGraphs has him at $20+ 3 times and close to a lock to be $20+ and maybe $30+ mil of value this year.

At $20 mil per I see him as a good deal. $30 mil per for 5 years is pushing it. $25 for 5 ($125 mil) might be what it takes - I'm hesitant at that. 5 years covers ages 29-33 so not the riskest years to be locked in for. This is his one shot at a big deal though so he might push hard for 7 years at $25 per. That seems a bridge too far for me.

Right now we have some future locked in here with more coming soon...

CA: Jansen (bat issues but expected to improve)
1B: Tellez (looking better than most expected)
2B: Biggio (would be nice if he could stick at 2B)
3B: Vlad (solid so far, but the power....)
SS: waiting for Bo
LF: Gurriel Jr looks solid out there
CF: a mess
RF: Grichuk off to a poor start but is signed for 5 years so like it or not he is here long term
DH: rotation

So it appears CF and getting Bo Bichette up here are all that are really left. Alford has lots of time in CF in the minors (306 games) but is hitting 248/332/398 so far this year which would require near gold glove fielding. Davis has hit better in the minors but looked terrible with the bat here and is older (27 this year) for a guy with little ML experience. Teoscar Hernandez could barely handle LF let alone CF. Forrest Wall is looking good in AA (283/372/446) and is a 2B moved to CF and is 23 - he seems the best bet to take over CF for the longer haul imo.

Now if only a few pitchers could make a breakthrough...

Tellez splits so far this year, including tonight:

vs RHP - .192/.250/.397/.647
vs LHP - .293/.317/.569/.886

Who would have figured that?

I certainly don't see Stroman as a $20 million a year pitcher. Have we forgotten he had an ERA of 5.54 last year? Career ERA of 3.83, WHIP of 1.285, 607 K's in 759 IP. That says good pitcher to me, not ace. He'll be 29 shortly after the start of next season.

Without getting into an argument about ERA, a 3.8 ERA would generally put him in the 15 best qualified AL starters each year (top 10 this year, and 4th in 2017). He's not a traditional ace, but tradition is irrelevant. He's the best pitcher we have, and unless a trade makes us a better team without him, then we should sign him. He's a guy we can rely on every 5th day. Whether or not Rogers ponies up 15m or 20m isn't really important. What matters is the quality of the team.

Yeah. Stroman is easily worth a QO, which is about 18M a year. Happ got 3/36 when signed by Atkins and 2/34 with another vesting year at 17M.

The big prize of last offseason got around 6/140 and currently has an ERA of 4.14.
Maybe 1/20 is a starting point but the yearly average should drop when you add years and it would be fine as long as you don't backload.

Stro would make around 10M in arbitration next year and 18M as QO after. Then you can add a couple years at 20M and an option or 2 at a high price. Then I'd just spin that around and pay him more now and less later.

On the subject of trades, the Liam Hendriks trade is another Atkins/Shapiro trade that really bombed (check his stats this year). I just don’t have a lot of confidence that they will obtain a proper return for Stroman. I would rather see them extend Stroman and focus on what they do well (rule 4 draft, IFAs, low-cost waiver/FA pickups like Shoemaker and Oh).

Hendriks has a long way to go if his season is going to be as good as Jesse Chavez' 2018 ;)

Agreed that extending Stroman should very much be the preferred option. Stroman is the kind of starting pitcher who you're comfortable using in playoff games. The odds of getting a guy like that back in a trade are very low, regardless of who the GM and President are.

Atkins didn't trade Hendriks. LaCava was interim GM, responsible for the Chavez/Hendriks trade as well as the Happ and Estrada FA signings.

The trade made sense since Hendricks was a reliever and Chavez could spot start. Jays had no upper minor ready starters other than Hutch coming off a godawful 2015 season. It was lucky we didn't need Chavez, because the staff stayed
mostly healthy (Hutch made 2 starts prior to the Liriano trade) and Chavez had a down year.

Comparing apples to oranges, because Hendriks had years of control and Chavez was an impending FA, but Chavez has actually had better results than Hendricks in the 3+ years since the trade went down. Hendricks has been terrific this year, 1.7 bWAR, but just 1.0 bWAR total the 3 seasons prior in Oakland. Chavez has been pretty good as well this season, 1.2 fWAR, but 2.9 bWAR total the 3 seasons prior.

Hardly a bomb, IMO.

1. $20m is nowhere near "Ace" money
2. What the hell else are we spending that money on?
3. See below:

Career: 6.1ip/gs, 3.77era , 3.65fip, 3.57xfip
Career: 6.1ip/gs, 89era-, 85fip-, 84xfip-
Career: 13.5fwar (3.5/32gs), 12.8ra9war (3.3/32gs)

2019: 5.9ip/gs, 3.23era, 3.82fip, 4.16xfip
2019: 5.9ip/gs, 72era-, 84fip-, 91xfip-
2019: 1.8fwar (3.6/32gs), 1.8ra9war (3.6/32gs)


Maybe not a true Ace but a legit consistent #1 SP, probably one of the top 20 pitchers in baseball, top 30 at worst.

Also, if the Jays still aren’t good in 2021 or 2022, they could probably still trade Stroman for good value, DeRozan-style, especially if he agrees to a non-exorbitant extension.

How many of these statements do you believe to be true?

A) The Jays will be contenders in 2020
B) The Jays will be contenders in 2021
C) The Jays will be contenders in 2022

If you don't believe at least B and C are true, what is the point of holding onto Marcus?

D) The Jays will be contenders in 2023
E) The Jays will be contenders in 2024
F) The Jays will be contenders in 2025

Hypobole- I would risk weight the answer to your questions as: A - 0%, B - 10%, C - 30+%. And I would absolutely say extending Stroman should be priority number 1A for the organization (finding a CF is 1B).

I think the decision on whether to extend Marcus Stroman has to be heavily tied to what type of return you can get for him. If a good return you trade him. If not you extend him. You dont want to lose him for nothing.

If you don't believe at least B and C are true, what is the point of holding onto Marcus?

Because the Jays are contractually obligated to continue to nevertheless play baseball games, which involves, in part, having someone on the mound throwing pitches?

To be more specific, even if you are as completely indifferent to short- and medium-term wins and losses as you appear to be, surely you see health and development risks in needing 6-plus bullpen innings every night. Don't you?

Isn't that a good enough reason to keep a good SP?

I'd be more than happy to see Marcus extended.

That said said, aging curves are a thing. Marcus' height is a thing. Pitcher injuries are a thing.

And keeping an excellent 28 yr old pitcher for 4 years before the team is a contender is something FO's don't do.

if we're not contending in 4yrs it'll be time to trade vladdy.

Agreed Mike D. Even if we are not losing, you don't want to injure a reliever's arm. In the old days relievers were classified as short relievers and long relievers. It was very clear cut. Even though E Jackson was a SP the SSS results are that of a long reliever. I think that the Jays coaching staff are not overly surprised that E Jackson is pitching like a long reliever. Richard is probably expected to produce as a long reliever as well IMO.

I think Gaviglio and Pannone have the role of long reliever. It does not matter if they start the game or come in later.

Boston has 3 good SPs Sale, Price and Porcello going into the season and so they would build their pen based on the belief that these 3 would produce good IP numbers. E Rodriguez gives them something positive. 120 IP per year.

I agree with UO.

I enjoy this site also as a creative project of building a window and extending the window intelligently. When we know how Vlad is doing (boom or bust) the FO should calculate the remaining control that Vlad has left.

As UO pointed out if we are not contending AND know it then do an all out rebuild. Vlad is traded with 2 years of control left as is anyone else. Maximize value.

Can't trade Stroman and Sanchez with 2 years left (this past off season) because both had poor 2018 seasons.

Donaldson could easily be traded after 2017 because he was Arb eligible BUT we wanted the revenue that 2018 would bring in because we were contending. Big profits trump all.

Mike D - not a good enough reason.

Marcus isn't good, he's excellent. He's not a run of the mill innings eater. I agree having bullpens work 6 innings plus is bad. But why is that? Well, Shoe tore his ACL on a seemingly innocuous play. Happened to Marcus in 2015. Other expected rotation pieces - Buchholz is injured and Borucki is injured. Pitchers get injured. Why didn't Marcus get traded this past offseason? Teams weren't willing to pay the ask , partly because Marcus was coming off an injury-plagued season.

3 years ago, Aaron Sanchez was better than Marcus. Now he's not only a lot worse, but also part of the reason the bullpen is getting chewed up. Pitchers don't stay good forever.

Getting someone better than Edwin Jackson isn't hard - in fact, it's almost impossible to get someone worse than 2019 Edwin Jackson. Getting someone better than Clayton Richard isn't hard - even Atkins managed to get Trent Thornton for Aledmys Diaz.

Holding onto Marcus for 3-4 years to eat innings on a non-playoff contending team is a waste of his talent, and fraught with uncertainty.

To me, what this discussion highlights is something I have been saying for a couple of years now - wave 1 of the rebuild may not have enough prospects to build a contending club. By wave 1, I mean the current Jays roster and anyone that might reasonably get to the majors in the next 12-18 months. If you agree that this first wave doesn't have enough ammo then you should be selling Stroman because your rebuild horizon is probably 3-4 years minimum. If not (i.e. you think you can build a contender in Vladdy's pre-arb years), then Stroman needs to be extended because there really aren't enough prospects in full season ball to build a good pitching staff without him. In my view, the answer to this question was up in the air prior to this year. The performance of the prospects in full season ball this year (with some notable exceptions) have been disappointing, which ups the risk factor that wave 1 isn't deep enough. I'd still extend him though - because he has (until recently) appeared to want to be here - which is something that not a lot of free agent pitchers over the years have been.

If traded we will see what the return is. Then wait a short or long time to accurately determine the value.

Sale, Verlander, Halladay, Happ, Archer and G Cole have been traded. They are all big names. The value for Halladay is in the books. We have to wait to value the other trades.

Verlander and Sale produced a WS for their teams. So did Liriano for Houston. Therefore automatic win.

Personally I also think the big fish in every trade is likely to be the greatest value going forward.

And keeping an excellent 28 yr old pitcher for 4 years before the team is a contender is something FO's don't do.

Four years?  We could contend next year if Rogers gave the okay financially.  We can trade Stroman if we fail to contend.  Even the most pessimistic predictions don't have us rebuilding another four years. 

What good FO's don't do is dogma, and this approach to a rebuild - you must trade everyone of value - smacks of dogma. 

What good FO's also do is manage assets via as many avenues as possible.  We already extended Grichuk (an extension I disliked then and dislike more now).  Clearly, we aren't averse to extensions through our rebuild.  It might make sense to deal Stro, but with a sellers market, it might not.  Add that the guy is a vocal fan of Toronto, has been consistent aside from last year (and still managed 1.4 fWAR), and is still only 28.  He's the face of the franchise, and 10 year old kids with Stroman jerseys matter too.  I continue to think that our FO has a bias towards 'their guys' - perhaps it is Stroman's vocal nature in this case.  And if so, that too speaks poorly of the FO, in my opinion.  He's emotional, but he's hardly a poor character guy.  Remember 2015?
What I most fear is our dealing him even if the return is low, or passing on a poor deal and failing to extend him. 

Nigel just posted the rebuild could be 4 years. uglyone has been saying the same thing. Lots of people agree, especially those who dislike the FO.

"Four years? We could contend next year if Rogers gave the okay financially."

No, they couldn't.

"3 years ago, Aaron Sanchez was better than Marcus."

he never was never better than Marcus, aside from a fluky ERA.

he was, for one year, on a similar level as Marcus, though.

but just one year, his first as a starter, before the hitters figured out his 2-pitch repertoire.

I wasn’t suggesting that the rebuild had to take four years, there are various ways in which it could take far less, but I agree with Glevin, this mess is so bad that you can’t fix this with one offseason of spending. The team would likely need to be 25-35 wins better next year to contend. There are no easy or short term fixes to how bad the current 25 man roster is.

I like what everyone says BUT the future is uncertain.

So April 30,2019 TB, LAD and Minnesota are very comfortable as the top 3 teams in baseball. 19-9 record for TB. May not last and did not. Same for Minnesota except they got better.

Our beloved Jays were in danger a lot of being no hit if I recall.

With the half way point in the season approaching it seems that Minnesota is doing really well and has to compete against the ALC. So IMO Minnesota should try to improve if they believe their fans would support a winner financially. Minnesota was almost as bad as the Jays last year.

I must admit that I cannot predict well. If the Jays were doing what Minnesota has done by April 30 and today I would be very happy. I did not see Minnesota's success so far this year or Oakland's success last year.

If the team doesn’t expect to contend for a few years, and therefore plans to trade Stroman, then why extend Grichuk (an inferior player who will be past his prime in a couple of years)?

I suspect this FO (and ownership?) just wants low-cost assets across the board; they really aren’t interested in higher-cost assets, even if they’re substantially better players.

Sanchez had a better FIP as well as a fluky ERA. (I checked before posting). Not going to argue the rest though.

And you are correct that a lot of top prospects peak as prospects and Nigel is right that wave 1 may not get it done. So spending on FA's will have to fill the holes that kids or trades don't. But FA's have their own risk - look at the top FA in each of the past 2 seasons. Darvish (pitching only) - 0.6 bWAR in almost a year and a half, Harper 0.5 bWAR in almost half a year.

I think this season may not be the best representation of how far away the team is. The Jays intentionally tanked 2019. They made no effort to improve the team, and acquired depth pieces that were not any good aside from Shoemaker (who got hurt). This team will lose 100+ games in large part because the FO probably wanted them to, for whatever reason.

Don't get me wrong, this team is not contending in 2020, but if they actually start to make an effort to add good players, and internal development happens, and they make good trades, etc, then expecting improvement in 2021 is not unreasonable. A lot will depend on how prospects develop and what other young talent the team can acquire in trades.

The one issue that I have, that has made me a bit less optimistic about a 2021 turnaround is that the team is not having much successful developing players. Practically anyone can go to the Yankees and suddenly become good, but the Jays do not have that reputation. Maybe it's too early to tell, but so far the returns have not looked that good.

I see this team as more rock bottom than I was previously expecting, the Jays are a very long way away from contending.

"If the team doesn’t expect to contend for a few years, and therefore plans to trade Stroman, then why extend Grichuk (an inferior player who will be past his prime in a couple of years)?"

Good question, one to which we'll probably never get a truthful answer.

Argued in the offseason, without much agreement here, the Jays should trade Diaz and Grichuk. The early returns on the Diaz deal seem OK, but the Grichuk extension and the Happ trade and the Morales signing and whatever else Atkins screws up will cost him his job. And most of his low-key moves have been OK, but low-key moves alone aren't going to get the team past respectability to contention.

I don't want to disagree with you SK because a lot of what you say is correct.

The trend of getting No Hit in the 1st 2 weeks of the season was unexpected to me. Gurriel I think was hitting badly to start then he was terrible at throwing the ball and now he is doing very well.To me that was a roller coaster. I am extremely happy with Tellez.

We were 3rd best at Runs Against and 3rd worst in Runs scored early on.

The bad offense has become better. Maybe Vlad and Biggio have helped and the large number of young players have improved a bit. Galvis may have slid.

The pitching has become very bad in performance and health. I suppose anything can become worse. Trading Stroman and Giles should make it worse. I should also say that anything can become better as well. Balance the scales. The end of the season should answer some of that.

Atkins added a lot of mediocre depth pitching. He probably should have added more. Not sarcasm. Just my current response to the effect of E Jackson.

For whatever reason, this front office seems to really like depth as an end in itself — as in, depth that is unlikely to ever amount to a whole lot in the majors (e.g. Espinal, Pannone, Spanberger, Wall, McKinney, Drury, Hernandez, Perez, Taylor, Paulino, Ramirez). It’s not that they are all bad prospects. It’s just that none of them is likely to be an above-average major leaguer. The FO almost seems to take a kind of satisfaction in “stocking up” the farm system, rather than focusing on players who could become really good MLB players.

And one of the best-performing of those prospects (Ramirez) was let go for nothing. It’s odd.

"If the team doesn’t expect to contend for a few years, and therefore plans to trade Stroman, then why extend Grichuk (an inferior player who will be past his prime in a couple of years)?"

There is an answer to this question, actually.

Grichuk has managed to consistently be a 3-3.5war type player when healthy.

Stroman has also managed to be that type of player when healthy.

So Grichuk's contract has a good chance of having surplus value, while Stroman for $20m has half as much chance.

and yes, there is no reference to "winning" as any part of the reason, in the short or long term, because I really don't think that's ever part of the reasoning, and I think the fact that their reasoning makes so much more sense when you remove the whole "winning" thing from the equation entirely proves as much.

If the Rays spend time in Montreal if will hopefully put pressure on Rogers to speed up the rebuild.

You can easily get closer to contending if you sign free agents to complement your roster.

"But FA's have their own risk - look at the top FA in each of the past 2 seasons. Darvish (pitching only) - 0.6 bWAR in almost a year and a half, Harper 0.5 bWAR in almost half a year."

I agree with this point but this is a bad example to illustrate it. WAR is not everything and using a 3 month sample size to show that those are bad contracts isn't effective.

With that approach, the likes of Wade Miley, CJ Cron, Liam Hendricks, Brett Anderson, Jessie Chavez, Hunter Pence etc are all worth gold. You can take anybody putting up decent WAR numbers but clearly there is a point where front offices value the prospect/upside of Harper and Machado over these players outpacing them currently. A better example would be a bad contract like Dozier, Eovaldi, Cahill, Marwin Gonzalez, Herrera etc...

The FO almost seems to take a kind of satisfaction in “stocking up” the farm system, rather than focusing on players who could become really good MLB players."

This is a silly narrative that keeps being repeated for no reason. With the exception of the Happ trade, the front office got these guys because they were trading players with almost no value. Do you want a great young arm for Aaron Loup? John Axford going to get back you an exciting young talent? Not going to happen. This is about trading people with no future value and getting lottery tickets back. And this is the narrative that keeps getting intentionally overlooked here. Sure, maybe they could have got a better prospect for Happ (although people are retroactively treating him like Chris Sale and not a 35 YO pitcher who had 3 straight months of XFIPs over 4.00 before they traded him) they waited on Donaldson too long, but overall, the issue with the rebuild, is that the Jays had almost no talent that other teams wanted. The Jays are not purposefully trying for mediocre prospects. They are getting mediocre prospects because nobody is going to give you good prospects for your marginal players. Are you seriously complaining that the Jays got Teoscar for Liriano? What did you want? Kyle Tucker? What player the Jays traded should have brought back a prospect "likely to be an above average major league player"? That's a 55 FV on a scouting grade. The answer, is none. That's basically a top-50 prospect. Someone like Happ is not going to get you that quality of prospect or even particularly close. This is the problem with the whining about this front office. There is a complete inability to accept that this stage was inevitable. Resigning Encranacion wasn't going to make a difference. Sure, the Jays could have traded Happ for a prospect but would having say, Clarke Schmidt in the organization instead of Drury and McKinney make anything any different? The Jays had a core of players get old , bad or not under team control very quickly and a terrible farm system that gave the team nothing for years to replace these departing players. The idea that there is something different this front office could have done to put the Jays in a fundamentally different place is just bizarre.

I don't know, Glevin. This team has given 12 starts to Jackson, Richard and Feierabend (technically 11, but one was Jackson coming in after an opener). This team is on track to post the second-worst OBP in all of MLB for the last 50 years.

To say "nope, nothing could have been done to avoid this" is to shelter a ghastly record of pro scouting and talent evaluation from accountability. All the Kyle Tucker red herring arguments in the world don't obscure that.

Hypo, to me four more years is a crazy long rebuild for a team when you could argue that we have been at it for 2 years already.   FWIW, Ugly is against the rebuild entirely as far as I can tell, Nigel already clarified his position. 

I don't think we should necessarily try to contend next year, but I do think we could  - contend here meaning 'for a wildcard'.  The Braves had three years of rebuilding and then made the playoffs, where they look to stay for the forseeable future.  The Twins went from 59 wins in 2016 to a WC in 2017, took a step back and are one of the top teams in the game right now.  The A's went from 5th in 2017 to the WC in 2018, a 22 game swing in wins.  The Phillies had 66 wins in 2017 and are a legit contender this year, Texas won 67 last year and are a WC contender right now, without a farm system as robust as ours.  There are more examples, and obviously there are counter examples that demonstrate the folly of trying to contend to fast - the Mets and the Mariners, perhaps the Pirates and the Padres too - although the Padres are the only team in as good or better shape as we are at the moment in terms of how prospect / contract situations going forward. 

We have, what, 30 million committed for next year, and Tulo drops to a 4 million buyout after that, leaving only Grichuk and Gurriel on the books. 

No, they couldn't.

Well then, in the face of such an argument, case closed.  Although if you have like actual examples or arguments, I'd be happy to hear them.  Obviously, there are other ways to build teams than miraculously trading Jon Axford for an A prospect.

dalimon, you're misrepresenting what I'm saying. First Darvish isn't a 3 month sample. And how is using the supposedly best FA each of the past 2 years a "bad example"? And I didn't say either was a bad contract, although Darvish might end up being so. And Eovaldi might end up being a good contract.

What I was alluding to is that even though prospects often fail, tossing money at FA's, even the best of them, doesn't guarantee success either especially in any particular season.

What odds could I get that the Blue Jays finish above .500 for the second half?  10-1?  20-1?  50-1?  Just wondering. 

"Hypo, to me four more years is a crazy long rebuild for a team when you could argue that we have been at it for 2 years already."

2017 was a botched attempt at contention and 2018 was a failed half-hearted attempt at contention. Rebuild started with the Pearce trade last year and has continued from there. Look at the Giants - they were worse than the Jays the past 2 seasons, yet no one is saying they were or even are rebuilding. Their rebuild won't start until they sell off MadBum, their bullpen assets and whatever else.

Mike, my guess would be "equal to their playoff odds"

The situation is not nearly as dire as many are making it imo. Injuries to the most vulnerable part of the roster during a rebuilding year have made this team much worse than it otherwise might have been. Perhaps the silver lining will be a hight draft pick next June...a real impact player.

The Jays will not contend for WC in 2020 unless very lucky but 2021 is definitely possible. Suggestions that it won't happen till 2024 are just ludicrous imo.

This year or next is not the right time to be investing in FA's and I am not convinced that is any answer at all except to fill a couple of holes that may be more obvious to identify a year from now.

There is plenty of pitching on the way and I agree that the FO should not try to rush it. That's why we have Edwin Jackson. Frankly, it does not bother me as he won't be here when winning counts. It sucks to have to watch bad baseball on many nights but this is a necessary price that needs to be paid unless one prefers the perprtual mediocrity that another route might provide.

Injuries at a vulnerable time is the main reason the record is what it is. It won't be as bad next season though I would not count on contending for WC before 2021.

All these notions about money are way off base. Trading Stroman has nothing to do with not wanting to pay him. The FO (rightly or wrongly) believes he is not the type of personality with whom they wish to move forward.

In the case of Giles. if he is traded, it hopefully would be trading a player on a high.....and realistically a closer is not needed when you rarely lead going into the 9th. Relievers are never good long term bets anyway so moving him makes sense.

I guess I am all over the place here with a few unrelated thoughts. Without so many pitching injuries early, most would feel better and there would be more wins.

Generally, though, this is what a rebuild look likes and it seems on track to me. I don't think Atkins is in any job jeopardy whatsoever.

Anyone else have a problem with posts not showing up?

I have a problem with cut and paste sometimes, but not always. If I preview sometimes the comment box goes blank. Then I have to copy and paste the preview. Or don't preview at all.

Peter, I don't think it's money either, but I also don't think it's his personality. Mike a while back posted something (the only thing I've ever seen) on how well short starting pitchers have aged. Obviously a SSS, but I don't remember it being all that positive.

I don't remember that, hypo.  I used BBRef comps for Stroman- they included some good names (in a baseball sense) like Curt Schilling and some not so good names.  It was about 50-50 for the player being useful in the equivalent of Stroman's 2021 and beyond.  Height was not used to identify the comps.

The cut and paste issue is special characters being mishandled. (",') That sort of things.
They are not ASCII characters, but something rendered by the browser.

I don't think not previewing fix the issue. I just manually replace them.

Mike, if they play .500 ball in the second half, you choose a phrase, and I will use it to end every post of mine the entire offseason.

I'm with Peter.

This is the "less competitive" year.
2020 will be"more competitive" and 2021 "competitive".

Up to now, they're just been testing position players.
Guerrero is looking fine. Biggio, better than anyone could have hoped.
Gurriel is finally turning into something.
The others are showing glimpses but what is needed is consistent production.

They've only used one rookie starter and Thornton looks promising.
They still have Borucki and Shoemaker.
That leaves 4 or 5 guys I'd like to see before the year is over.
No rush.
Luciano can't be judged. He's a long term project.

And the pen is no problem. They'll have a ton of failed starters to try there.

How is Marwin Gonzales a bad contract? It's a 2 year deal and he's been about the same as last year.

The Angels got Ohtani for nothing.
So they go and non-tender Shoemaker so they can sign guys like Mat Harveys and Cody Allen.

Most of the GMs look bad right now.
Teams trying to compete with FAs like the Mets are failing.
The Padres signed Machado but didn't trade any of their surplus prospects and they're out of contention for--what is it? 10 years in a row?
The Pirates didn't get enough for Cole and gave up too much for Archer.

The stakes of this bet has me hammering F5 in anticipation of Mike Green's response...

There is no chance of Shoemaker beiong non tendered unless he has a recovery setback. He will be with the Jays for next season, at least until July.

"Grichuk has managed to consistently be a 3-3.5war type player when healthy"

UO, since Grichuk is currently at -0.2 fWAR for the season, he should be able to hit your target for him if he plays at a 6-7 WAR pace the rest of the way.

"The situation is not nearly as dire as many are making it imo."

AVG #30
OBP #30
WAR #28
WRC+ #28
SB #28
SLG #27
K% #25
ISO #23
DEF #22
BB% #21
BSR #20


SP

BB% #30
SIERA #29
IP #28
K% #27
RA9WAR #25
FWAR #25
FIP #25
XFIP #25
XFIP- #25
ERA- #24
FIP- #23
ERA #22

RP

FIP #26
FWAR #22
FIP- #21
BB% #20
ERA #17
XFIP #16
ERA- #16
RA9WAR #16
SIERA #15
XFIP #14
K% #11
IP #6


And they're likely moving their best SP, best RP, and one or two of their best hitters soon.

Well, hypobole, there is a federal election in October. If they do play better than .500, how about "No Transmountain" or "Vote Earth"? If those are too political, then a simple "BG" will do. Those refer to Bichette or Biggio and Guerrero, but they are also my father's initials.

if we're not contending in 4yrs it'll be time to trade vladdy.

It's unlikely to be Atkins doing the trading, if it comes to that.

Mike, you pick it, I'll post it. Just don't get me banned.

It's unlikely to be Atkins doing the trading, if it comes to that.

If he screws up the Stroman and Giles trade he’ll be gone a lot quicker than 4 years. I can hear the pitch forks being sharpened already; I’ve at least started to dust mine off.

I don't think Atkins is in any job jeopardy whatsoever.

Not this year, not next. After all, Gord Ash got 7 seasons, and J.P. Ricciardi got 8. So 2022 will be Atkins' 7th season here and if his team isn't in contention by then, he'll be hearing the ice cracking beneath his feet.

How about side bets Mike Green? Also go in stages bets.

Second half ... game 82-162. Other time frames: After the AS game. After the trade deadline.

I think Atkins is a big factor. Will he make the team stronger or weaker? I honestly believe his goal is youth if they are ready. If not dumpster dive for short term reasons.

Fun Guy in the house.

Kawhi is filming the game on his phone?

"Gord Ash got 7 seasons, and J.P. Ricciardi got 8. So 2022 will be Atkins' 7th season"

And the one guy that got us to the playoffs didn 't even get 6.

Amazing, really.

Quad-A Player @QuadAplayer
8m
Vladdy's debut or Kawhi attending a Jays game? Hard to say which one will be the highlight of the 2019 Blue Jays season.

"2017 was a botched attempt at contention and 2018 was a failed half-hearted attempt at contention".
These are the guys that should be running the rebuild?  If, as you suggest, the window might be another 4 years - 6 years of mediocrity - i don't want these guys in charge.
If they are awesome rebuilders, they rebuild in 2017, or at worst, last year.  If they are good at contending, they should be contending soon, with the turnaround time of the teams I cited (and the many other examples I didn't bother to cite) in my last post.
But here we are, stuck in the dreaded mediocre middle.  I'd love to be wrong and watch them go all-in after, say, 2020.  But I do fear the 'four more years of rebuilding timetable' is realistic.

Perhaps I'm feeling a bit testy, watching the other major teams in the city flex their financial muscle, both on the players and behind the scenes, their GMs taking risks and producing winners while they are at it.  At least Mike Babcock had the guts to say 'there will be pain coming".

Starting to believe in gurriel's power.

Gurriel and Sogard are a combined 6/6 with two doubles and two home runs so far tonight.

I don’t think Atkins necessarily has until 2022. As I posted before, I think the water starts to boil for him after the end of next season. He might survive, but what has happened to Rogers’ revenue stream from the club (and the team’s record) during his tenure isn’t going to be ignored forever. Fair or not, after next season, I think he’ll be coming off back to back 90+ loss seasons and near record low attendance and viewership. That will need answering for. I have no clue if he will survive, but doing something about the team’s pro scouting would help.

Why are they torturing vladdy out on the hot corner?

Enough.

If you compare the team's:

- Rule 4 drafts, Rule 5 drafts, IFA acquisitions, FA and waiver pickups

- Trades

You might grade the former at around a B, and the latter at around a D.

So if the team has someone good like Stroman, it might be best if they extended him and then concentrated on what they do reasonably well (the first category). In other words, they should play to their strengths and minimize exposure to their weaknesses.

On the other hand, maybe they've learned from past failed trades and poor pro scouting, and they'll do a better job on the trade front in the future.

I was high on Gurriel’s bat after last season, and he seems to have found a home in the outfield. I’d imagine with his strong arm he would play a good enough right field as well. Physically he reminds me of Alex Rios.

Scott Mitchell @ScottyMitchTSN
From earlier tonight, Ross Atkins on what’s been most disappointing part of #BlueJays season. Pay attention here. Kind of sheds some light on things.

“Really, it’s just been our overall ability to prevent runs and score them."

As I mentioned last year, I just love Gurriel's contract. I think it's one of the best in the big leagues in terms of the value the team is going to get from the player's performance compared to the salary. I was surprised at how many here were lukewarm at best on Gurriel even after how well he hit last year. Unfortunate that it took the Jays so long to figure out that he's not an infielder, but the mistake has been corrected.

With Gurriel in LF, Grichuk in RF, Biggio, Guerrero and Bichette in the infield, and Jansen behind the plate, they seem to have 6 of the 9 positions covered for the foreseeable future. Needing a DH/1B shouldn't be that tough (2 of them if Vladdy can stick at 3B). Now, about that starting staff - obviously, lots of work to be done there, plus a CF.

This guy jonah @yyzsportsmedia broke the mccown getting fired story a few days ago, and has been doing a bit of a Q&A about it this evening.

Basically he's saying that rogers paid way too much for the nhl deal and are being forced to slash spending everywhere else. He's saying that an even bigger sportsmen bloodletting is coming.

Which, of course, led me to think about the jays' payroll, current and future.

*sportsnet bloodletting*

The issue with judging trades is the Jays, whether due to circumstances beyond their control or just poor timing on their part, have almost always been selling at a position of weakness. When they weren't doing that, they were trading marginal bit pieces. The one time they actually sold high on anyone with any sort of long term value was probably Diaz. They did well considering the circumstances with the Osuna trade, completely botched the Happ trade, and just had really bad luck with Donaldson with his injury (should have traded him before 2018). With everyone else you couldn't really expect a great return.

With Stroman and Giles, barring injury from now until the deadline, they will be selling at a position of strength. Both pitchers are performing at a high level, and both have an extra year of control after this season. If Atkins messes up those deals, then it probably won't look good for future seasons in terms of depending on him to build the next competitive Jays team.

I trust this regime's drafting and international signings. They still have to prove they can develop talent at the big league level. That's going to determine how quickly things can turn around. That, and what they get in return for Stroman and Giles.

Any trades of Stroman and Giles are almost certain to be exchanges of current value for future value (or else why would a contender do the deal) - so those trades set the rebuild timetable back. How long will depend on whether the FO goes after near ready assists or not. And, of course, getting prospects back that ultimately turn out to be as good as what gets shipped out is a 50/50 proposition at best.

I don’t expect the return for Giles and Stroman to be all that great. It’s harder to pry away good prospects in trades than it used to be, and it’s reportedly a buyer’s market this summer (look at how little the M’s got for EE). Giles’s injury will drive down his value a bit. Stroman is viewed as a solid starter but not an ace, and he’s coming off a down year with shoulder issues.

Once again the umpiring was atrocious behind the plate.

Guerrero, in particular, started his first AB with a pitch well below the knees called for strike and was retired on a trapped foul ball that hit the ground. Now, if he's able to tell it hit the ground from the noise it made, you think the ump would be too.

Guerrero was fuming on the bench. He was still pouting when Hernandez was celebrating his home run. It's clearly a case of letting what happens at the plate affect the performance on the field.

Just one game to forget for him.

Guerrero and Biggio are both reacting with surprise every time a ball is called a strike.
Maybe the umps are better in the minors?
Because of injuries, several marginal players have ended up with the Yankees and have put out career number. Urshela, Maybin, Estrada... The Yankees players are in an extremely favorable hitting environment. You generally don't want to acquire those guys. That and automated ball/strike calling can't come soon enough.

I suppose NHL viewership in Canada is down.
The raptors are an other story. The only 2 things there is the games being so late and the Conservatives not running enough ads. Otherwise, not much to complain about there.

And then there is the exchange rate. Which isn't great unless you're being paid in US dollars.

Looking at the Jays the killer is the 10 guys on the IL.

Borucki on the 60 day, out until at least July. Should've been a key part of rotation
Shoemaker was looking great, then a freak injury takes him out for the year
Buchholz was to be a good trade piece but again hurt until at least July
Tepera was to be a solid bullpen piece but instead out until at least August
Travis was to be at 2B but had his annual long IL trip come quickly
Smoak was to be a solid trade piece but is hurt
Pompey might have been a half decent CF (at least on defense) but instead has been out with a concussion

Those are the majors hurt, also Edwin Jackson (probably from spinning his head to watch balls hit out of the park), Luciano (rule 5 virus?), Waguespack after just 1 game (seems minor).


So 3 starting rotation pieces, 2 of whom were trade pieces. Now that kills a rotation leading to 15+ starts from Stroman/Sanchez/Thornton and no more than 6 from anyone else with 9 others getting at least one start. Yikes.

So far in 2019 we've seen 27 pitchers including Maile being used twice. 19 hitters - not bad. For comparison 2016 (last playoff team) had 29 pitchers used (including Barney & Goins) with just 7 starters and 22 hitters.

and the Conservatives not running enough ads

They're already running too many. It's way too early to see this nonsense on my television. (Same goes for the other guys.)

It is aggravating.  How much would you pay to not see ads?  I find the 30 minutes of ads at the beginning of movies very annoying and will happily pay a little extra to go to the Bell Lightbox, but there are a limited selection of movies there. 

"And the one guy that got us to the playoffs didn't even get 6."

That's not quite the way it happened though. After 5 years, Ted Rogers son (don't know which one) wanted Beeston to dump AA. Beeston was retiring and held his ground.

Shapiro was courted and eventually hired with the understanding he'd have final say in all baseball decisions. Then the Jays made the playoffs. Now Rogers changed his mind and AA was offered a contract. AA rightfully felt disrespected by having his power reigned in and basically said "Screw you, I'm leaving."

"That's not quite the way it happened though"

I mean, that is what happened. The only guy that got us to the playoffs was here the shortest time, by a lot.

you can argue about details, but it says all you need to know about Rogers' priorities, imo.

"The BG's" it is, Mike.

As for Sogard, are there any real contenders that would see him as any more than a marginal upgrade at the deadline, even if he maintains his play thus far? Kipnis hasn't hit whatsoever, but Cleveland's playoff chances look slim at best.

the rein/reign confusion.

Guess you can tell I'm neither a king nor a cowboy.

uo, AA left of his own accord. I don't blame him, but he could have stayed if he wanted to stay. You make up this narrative of "he got us in the playoffs, then we got rid of him", when that was simply not the case.

Blame it on the reign?

Sogard for Edward Olivares, maybe?

And whatever one may think of Rogers as owners, can they be any worse than the Wilpon's in New York? Met's "surprisingly" struggling, need fall guy, fire pitching coach, and hire:

"82-year-old Phil Regan, the new Mets pitching coach, made his MLB debut in 1960 with the Tigers.

His manager that day, Jimmy Dykes, was born in 1896."

AA was constructively dismissed. That means you’re both right in theory. AA could have stayed but would have had to accept a lesser role. Why someone in AA’s role would have done that in the circumstances (playoffs, revenue rolling in) I cannot imagine. I don’t think for a moment that Shapiro or Rogers thought that AA would do anything other than what he did.

And yes, Rogers is far far from the worst owner in sports. Hell - they aren’t close to the worst owner in Jays history. Perspective.

"uo, AA left of his own accord."

Ok so ownership demoted the only GM that got them into the playoffs, earlier than they demoted any other GM.

Any which way you want to spin it, it demonstrates their priorities pretty much perfectly.

"Hell - they aren’t close to the worst owner in Jays history."

You sure about that?

I find the 30 minutes of ads at the beginning of movies very annoying

Me too. Started going 20 or 30 minutes late with earphones so I can listen to music while they blast the remaining ads at obscene levels.

I'd be intrigued to hear the argument that Interbrew was better than Rogers. The results certainly weren't. You could argue that Rogers picked up where Inbev left off, but they did eventually put the investment into an unquestionably competitive team.

Interbrew bought an awful team, spent plenty of cash, kept their stars and signed more stars, and built a pretty good and interesting team. the only time they dipped into the bottom 3rd of payroll is the year they were selling, and that was barely in the bottom 3rd.

Rogers bought a pretty good team, and have just dithered for approaching 20yrs, letting star after star leave in bitterness and embarassment - and then hilariously puking all over themselves the first time they actually built a playoffs team and ruining it. They've regularly dipped into the bottom 3rd in payroll throughout their ownership.

(payroll ranks from baseballcube)

----Interbrew buys----
1995: .389, #1 $$
1996: .457, #16 $$
1997: .469, #8 $$
1998: .543, #11 $$
1999: .519, #14 $$
2000: .512, #21 $$
Total: .483

----Rogers Buys-----
2001: .494, #10 $$
2002: .481, #11 $$
2003: .531, #21 $$
2004: .416, #21 $$
2005: .494, #25 $$
2006: .537, #16 $$
2007: .512, #16 $$
2008: .531, #13 $$
2009: .463, #15 $$
2010: .525, #22 $$
2011: .500, #23 $$
2012: .451, #23 $$
2013: .457, #10 $$
2014: .512, #10 $$
2015: .574, #16 $$ - and they fire their GM!
2016: .549, #13 $$
2017: .469, #10 $$
2018: .451, #8 $$
2019: .360, ~#22 $$
Total: .494


In 18 years in charge, Rogers has managed to build one team better than Interbrew's best team in their 6yrs - and they immediately replaced the GM who built that team before the season was over. We've seen every single homegrown star leave in acrimony, and seen them hurriedly replace the only GM that actually went out and made any real star acquisitions.

And remember, that 1998 Interbrew team would have had a wildcard berth under the current rules, just like the 2016 team did.


And Interbrew was a pretty terrible absentee owner.

But Rogers is even worse.

I am really tired of the or payroll gripes, as outside of this year the Jays have held a top ten payroll since 2013 which is fine. The reality is the team will never spend recklessly likes the Dodgers, Sox or Yanks and if you want to see that then you will have to cheer for those teams.

Interbrew bought an awful team,

Well, Interbrew actually bought a brewery. The team happened to come along with it. And in April 1995, when Interbrew made their offer for the Labatt Brewing Company, that team wasn't completely awful. They were the nearest thing to the reigning world champions you could find, in fact. They got awful pretty quick, I'll give you that.

It occurs to me - here's the home team halfway through their first 100 loss season in 40 freaking years, and people are losing their goddamn minds?

I'm thinking there might be some difficulty enduring what Cubs and Astros fans endured en route to their recent Brushes with Glory.

The criticism there extends far beyond mere payroll.

Though them pretending Toronto is a mid-to-small market team is stupid and dishonest enough that it should always be criticized.

pretending Toronto is a mid-to-small market team is stupid and dishonest

Absolutely right. New York, Los Angeles, Houston, maybe Chicago are the only ones in that same ... uh, ballpark?

I might want to fess up that while I've been critical enough of Rogers to award them an F grade - and those are hard to come by, folks! - I have a personal grudge against Interbrew. The press box was never the same!

Including broadcast market, Toronto is bigger than Houston. 

I've been told numerous times that the broadcast market in Canada isn't the same as anywhere in the States. So the Yankees can get $191 million a year in rights fees in 2013, but the Jays (while reaching more people, at their best) can only sell the rights to themselves for "whatever makes the books look the best".

Uglyone, I have to go with Interbrew as the worst owner but you hit on one of my two fundamental gripes about Rogers. They just are not honest about the size of the market or the transfer pricing issues associated with the tv contract. The second issue is tied to them being a public company and their quarterly and annual financial reporting which drives them to want a more consistent revenue and spending profile rather than more closely following the team’s actual place on the success curve.

Anyway, Magpie you are right that people need to get more zen about this year’s team. It’s terrible but this is what 100+ loss teams look like and you need to watch for slivers of sunshine along the way - of which there are some. Next year’s probably going to be near as difficult so don’t vent all your bile too early:)

James, as someone who’s client base included a large media conglomerate, what you have been told is true. There are differences both in calculating ratings and in the ad fees generated related to those ratings as between the US and Canada. The markets aren’t directly comparable. But the Jays tv contract price isn’t explainable by those differences. The Jays tv contract is so many orders of magnitude different from those of comparable markets that there are other things going on there.

Thanks UO for the chart. I can never find payroll for everyone and format it the way you do. I have been staring at it for about an hr and have a more questions than accurate conclusions.

I would love to see this kind of a chart for TB and the Cubs. I expect I would be in admiration of TB (success) and horrified by the Cubs (failure). I don't expect anyone to actually do this.

Some info that I had forgotten. I am a senior now and was not in the mid 90s. But that is not what I forgot.

Forgotten Info:

1) Partial seasons in 1994 and 1995 due to the strike.
2) Only 2 divisions AL East and West with only the top team in each division making the playoffs. So they played baseball very differently in those days.
3) 1994 was 3 divisions. Texas was winning the ALW with a .456 record no WC I believe. Playoff format is unknown to me. Playoffs in 1995 with 1 WC added. Playoff format unknown to me. Modern game starting to take shape.
4) This point is the last one I actually understand. So generally there are players (ML and Minor league), Manager and coaches (don't know about bench coach) and FOs that don't do much of anything the same as the modern game.
5) The modern game is starting to take shape over the next 2 decades. Strategies changed bunting, SBs and other things that nobody fully understands. Like the popularity of the media (increased TV is the cause). The fans started to take over the game (paying customers). I love a pitching duel but I think scoring is more important. HRs for sure.
6) The popularity of HRs. The commissioner is now doctoring the baseball. In the past only pitchers did that. The shift was invented and players responded by hitting more HRs. Soon someone will realize that the Hr is accounting for most of the runs scored.

Nigel, for me, Interbrew was just a casual absentee owner. They took over a team they didn't really want, threw some money at it, made some splashes, and then cut costs and sold. Nothing to get worked up about for me.

Rogers is different, imo. They have intentionally run a bargain bin operation for near 2 decades now prioritizing nothing but squeezing every last penny they can, with no desire to win anything whatsoever. They got the stadium for a song, but made sure to have their name and statue all over it (while doing as little as possible to improve it), and have a very cyncical incestuous/parasitic business model vis a vis their core television product. They're much worse, and much more sinister, for me.

Rogers are OK owners. Not great, they could spend more money, but not bad. The payroll is big enough to compete and they don't really interfere in baseball decisions. Interbrew was vastly worse and 1995-2000 years were a real lost opportunity. In 1995, the Jays had the following players all 26 and younger. Olerud, Hentgen, Delgado, Green, Gonzalez, and Stewart (Alomar was 27). That is an amazing core.

The numbers posted by UO are of course, extremely silly for a number of reasons. First, because rankings are meaningless. If you are spending $190M and there are 9 teams spending $195M, you are ranked 10th. If you are spending $30M and there are 9 teams spending $195M, you are also ranked 10th. So, if you look at real numbers for example, what happens when Rogers buys the team is not just #21 to #10, it's $46M to $76M and took them from the second bottom tier of spending to the second top. Interbrew was super cheap and Rogers is not. Also, even $ values are largely meaningless because the Canadian dollar fluctuates so much so in real dollars, having a $140M payroll with a 1.30 exchange rate and with a 1.10 exchange rate is an enormous difference. Additionally, he makes it look like payroll and winning percentage is somehow started a new every year as if inheriting a core of great young players has no effect on future winning percentage and leaving a team completely devoid of any young talent has no effect on future winning percentage. Baseball moves in long cycles.

"and they don't really interfere in baseball decisions."

Except they have. It was Rogers who wanted AA fired and it was Rogers who put the kibosh on Shapiro's earlier rebuild.

Glevin, there’s no bigger proponent than me in looking at the C$ payroll to really evaluate payroll spending. In this case, it cuts in favour of uglyone’s argument in that the exchange rate was north of 1.40 for much of their ownership. I’ll admit I don’t see a huge difference between Interbrew and Rogers when it comes to payroll. Interbrew just couldn’t give a crap and acted accordingly. I do believe the Jays are an important asset to Rogers. I think that difference matters when the rubber hits the road. And yeah, Rogers interferes lots in the big picture. Shapiro himself blames them for the two year delay in the rebuild. That’s about as extreme an intervention as you can get.

I just do not think that the statement that this is a bargain bin business model is factual given that they have been given a top 10 payroll for 6 out of the last 7 years. The Jays have spent more money than Houston for 5 out of the last 7 years, and the Cubs 4 out of the last 7 years. The 80 million dollar Dunedin renovations and doubling the salaries of all minor league players also does not scream cheap Rogers. Having Rogers as an owner is just a non-issue to me, they're just a boring corporate owner and nothing more.

"The numbers posted by UO are of course, extremely silly"

Of course.

Well I’d be the last one to wave the Rogers flag as I hate their service quality, or lack thereof, and their ownership to date of the Jays has been by disinterest at best. I agree they’re not the worst owner, but hardly inspiring.

The question is, what’s the better alternative? The price of clubs is so high you’d need an extremely wealth individual to own them, there are few of those in Canada, and I’m not sure an ego driven billionaire is a better owner anyway. My preference would be MLSE who have done well with their two franchises but do they have the interest?. Now might be a good buy low strategy, but also not sure Rogers wants to sell and likely give up some of their broadcast rights to others. Who knows.

So, frankly, grousing about the Jays owner is kind of a waste of time. I’d save the pitchforks for Atkins in case he soils the linen on the Stroman and Giles trades.

It was Rogers who wanted AA fired

I'm not a fan of the company, but don't think that's fair or accurate. I don't think Rogers cared one way or the other about Anthopoulos while they were talking to Shapiro. If he wanted to keep Anthopoulos, bring in someone else - whatever. Knock yourself out. But they did have to replace Beeston and the guy they wanted - unlike Beeston - definitely wanted to involve himself in the baseball operation. He probably wanted to pick his own GM.

Would that be a problem for Rogers? Why on earth would it be? While these talks were happening, the incumbent GM was conveniently in the last year of his deal, the team had lost more games than they'd won while he was in charge and were slipping towards and below .500 at that very moment, with the end of July approaching.

August and September 2015 then happened. Rogers didn't see that coming, but not too many people did. Could Rogers try to renege on their freshly signed their agreement with Shapiro? Would that have worked? Who'd take the job, once that had happened? Could they have tried to see if Shapiro would be happy about having left one organization so he could have less power and influence with his new team, contrary to what he'd been promised? Good luck with that.

Anthopoulos didn't like the new arrangement, as was his right. It's not the arrangement he had with Beeston. He couldn't find a modus vivendi with Shapiro. I don't think you blame Rogers for that. And hey - it's not like there's a shortage of other stuff you can blame on them anyway.

It was Rogers who wanted AA fired

I'm not just making this up. Can't remember where I read it (that story actually named the Rogers son)and google hasn't been overly helpful but I did find this in reference to Rogers skulking around behind Beeston's back trying to replace him first with Duquette then with Kenny Williams:

"As for what Beeston may have done that may have angered the high-ups at Rogers to have them search for his replacement the Friday roundtable on the FAN 590 had their thoughts, Bob McCown seems to think that the higher ups wanted to fire Alex Anthopoulos at the end of the season and that Beeston wouldn’t go along with that idea."

Also Atkins who has accomplished little here really gets an extension before mid-season, but AA wasn't offered a contract until after he made the playoffs. If it walks like a lame duck....

Sorry missed the quote source

https://bluejaymusings.wordpress.com/tag/paul-beeston/

"So, frankly, grousing about the Jays owner is kind of a waste of time."

It might the only thing worth grousing about, tbh.

Even if you defend them as owners then you have to argue that their front office decisions have been awfulness, considering their record over the last 18yrs.

Hey, at least Rogers has been more successful with the Jays than with Zoocasa.

Another known fact is that Atlanta (AA) has done better in 2018 and up to now than the Jays(Shapiro/Atkins).

In 2017 the Jays (Shapiro/Atkins) had a better win mark than Atlanta (not AA).

So AA's team is one or the highest risers in the league since he took over.

I mean seriously - 2 September playoff races in 18yrs, and they replaced the architect of them before the first September even started. It's obvious incompetence that deserves criticism. They can't even be bothered to improve the stadium they got for free, or make games more affordable.

I can whine about Shapiro all I want but my real issue with them is that imo they were obvious company men from the start, in a company that is all about marketing, not producing.

The thing is, they don’t care if a minority of fans get grumpy about the prolonged mediocrity. They aren’t going to change. The goal will always be to maximize profits, with winning a secondary priority. If .500 baseball, more or less, with occasional stretches of goodness or greatness, is the sweet spot for making money, that’s what Rogers will pursue.

Agreed greenfrog. I accept that and will remain a Jays fan.

I will try with the help of other bauxites to figure out how we can be as successful or close to TB with a slightly bigger payroll.

"They aren’t going to change. "

Though if our hate grows strong enough, they may sell.