AAA

1B Guerrero (20): 33pa, 9.1b%/6.1k%, .320bip/.367avg, .333iso, 182wrc+
2B Biggio (24): 160pa, 17.5b%/15.6k%, .350bip/.315avg, .208iso, 150wrc+
IF Gurriel (25): 115pa, 1.7b%/18.3k%, .318bip/.284avg, .211iso, 101wrc+
SS Bichette (21): 59pa, 8.5b%/16.9k%, .286bip/.250avg, .154iso, 80wrc+
3B Urena (23): 60pa, 0.0b%/31.7k%, .410bip/.291avg, .109iso, 67wrc+
CF Alford (24): 136pa, 8.8b%/36.0k%, .279bip/.190avg, .157iso, 58wrc+
C McGuire (24): 107pa, 8.4b%/19.6k%, .280bip/.223avg, .074iso, 48wrc+

SP Waguespack (25): 42.1ip, 22.8k%/9.0b%, .328bip, 5.31era, 5.40fip, 4.62xfip
SP Paulino (25): 17.2ip, 16.5k%/10.1b%, .321bip, 5.09era, 4.99fip, 5.72xfip
SP R-Foley (23): 37.0ip, 23.2k%/17.7b%, .289bip, 7.54era, 6.39fip, 5.86xfip
SP Sopko (24): 11.0ip, 10.2k%/6.1b%, .243bip, 3.27era, 7.36fip, 6.71xfip


While not quite as torrid as he was to start, Biggio is still looking like a legit hitting prospect. Gurriel's hot power start when he went down has largely dissappeared. Alford and McGuire still not showing anything.

Those pitchers all look terrible so far and only SRF is at an age where that's at all acceptable from a legit SP prospect, unfortunately.


AA

OF Lundqvist (23): 134pa, 14.2b%/26.9k%, .364bip/.254avg, .123iso, 123wrc+
IF Capra (22): 129pa, 10.9b%/14.7k%, .330bip/.279avg, .090iso, 120wrc+
OF Wall (23): 162pa, 13.0b%/18.5k%, .311bip/.248avg, .117iso, 118wrc+
OF Palacios (23): 45pa, 13.3b%/17.8k%, .276bip/.237avg, .132iso, 113wrc+
C Adams (23): 50pa, 8.0b%/38.0k%, .304bip/.190avg, .143iso, 89wrc+
SS Smith (22): 153pa, 7.2b%/27.5k%, .217bip/.175avg, .131iso, 64wrc+

SP Pearson (22): 11.0ip, 39.5k%/4.7b%, .348bip, 2.45era, 1.84fip, 1.58xfip
SP Logue (23): 46.1ip, 18.9k%/5.6b%, .312bip, 3.50era, 3.63fip, 3.87xfip
SP Perez (23): 33.0ip, 26.1k%/13.1b%, .443bip, 6.82era, 4.26fip, 3.67xfip
SP Diaz (22): 36.0ip, 18.5k%/11.3b%, .238bip, 3.75era, 4.59fip, 4.45xfip

Capra the only hitter in AA that looks encouraging at this point, despite the lack of power. Older guys like lundqvist, wall, and palacios are non-terrible but not exactly tearing it up. Adams off to a not bad start in AA but showing serious contact issues.

Smith has finally shown some signs of life lately, with a 116wrc+ over his last 10gms, though that's based mostly on a power surge, as his k-rates are still too high. Still, though, power is a big part of his game so that's not nothing.

Pearson crushing it after his promotion still. Logue/Perez/Diaz all showing some encouraging numbers but nothing too exciting.


A+

C Kirk (20): 38pa, 15.8b%/13.2k%, .444bip/.375avg, .156iso, 198wrc+
SS Santos (21): 14pa, 7.1b%/28.6k%, .250bip/.231avg, .308iso, 143wrc+
SS Vicuna (21): 154pa, 8.4b%/20.1k%, .330bip/.259avg, .059iso, 95wrc+
2B Taylor (20): 134pa, 11.9b%/27.6k%, .240bip/.170avg, .080iso, 70wrc+
OF Young (21): 125pa, 8.0b%/28.0k%, .263bip/.188avg, .071iso, 60wrc+

SP Pearson (22): 21.0ip, 46.7k%/4.0b%, .229bip, 0.86era, 1.73fip, 1.19xfip
SP Castillo (20): 41.2ip, 21.2k%/5.5b%, .288bip, 2.59era, 3.06fip, 3.47xfip

Kirk destroying it after his promotion and is starting to look a bit like an elite hitting prospect, regardless of his position. Vicuna is holding his own. Taylor and Young are having really dissappointing seasons so far. Especially Young, whose breakout is starting to look more like a fluke now.

Castillo continues to truck a long as a legit Very Good Prospect, putting up very good numbers while young for his level.


A

C Moreno (19): 17pa, 0.0b%/17.6k%, .385bip/.353avg, .294iso, 180wrc+
C Kirk (20): 96pa, 18.8b%/8.3k%, .299bip/.299avg, .221iso, 170wrc+
3B Groshans (19): 96pa, 13.5b%/21.9k%, .433bip/.337avg, .145iso, 169wrc+
SS Santos (21): 14pa, 0.0b%/42.9k%, .625bip/.357avg, .143iso, 143wrc+
C Gold (21): 116pa, 6.0b%/19.8k%, .329bip/.264avg, .132iso, 109wrc+
IF Lopez (20): 165pa, 10.3b%/17.6k%, .331bip/.276avg, .069iso, 102wrc+
OF Contreras (20): 1`0pa, 7.3b%/41.8k%, .389bip/.218avg, .089iso, 67wrc+
C Danner (20): 110pa, 3.6b%/35.5k%, .200bip/.158avg, .198iso, 54wrc+

SP Winkowski (21): 44.0ip, 21.0k%/7.7b%, .318bip, 1.64era, 2.94fip, 3.49xfip


Combined with what he did last year, Moreno is starting to resemble a stud prospect himself. Gold having a solid year. Lopez good too but not near as good as I hoped, with zero power so far. Contreras and Dannner are scuffling real bad and not looking like much right now.

Winkowski continues to look solid and I think he should probably pushed up a level sometime soon.

Uglyone

A+: C Kirk (20): 38pa, 15.8b%/13.2k%, .444bip/.375avg, .156iso, 198wrc+

A: C Moreno (19): 17pa, 0.0b%/17.6k%, .385bip/.353avg, .294iso, 180wrc+
C Kirk (19): 96pa, 18.8b%/8.3k%, .299bip/.299avg, .221iso, 170wrc+

You may have noticed, that on occasion, I have made a reference (or two) to Mr. Kirk, too often for some, I'm sure. Guilty, as charged.

I am also very interested in Mr. Moreno. You believe he is "starting to resemble a stud prospect himself."

In my opinion, those minor league hitters who can hit, and hit for power, MIGHT become great players IF they can also get on base at a high rate. IF they can take a walk and force the pitcher to pitch to them the pitcher knows every at bat with them he risks putting a potential run on base.

Kirk's minor league on-base ave over 317 AB's is .441. Vlads minor league on-base ave over 1075 AB's was .413. Moreno's minor league on-base ave over 295 AB's is .342.

.342 is NOT CHOPPED LIVER - but... Personally, as a quick rule of thumb, I consider an OBP of .350 the starting place for a "good" OBP.

Moreno, even if he does not ascend to the stratosphere as Vlad and Kirk may do (big "may" still for Kirk {SSS}) he still looks to be very interesting.

You missed Patrick Murphy, UO.  I'm sure that it was just an oversight. 

can't disagree with you there. but i tend to disgregard mexican league stats entirely, so for me I'm looking at a kid who posted a .395obp in his first north american season last year, and has started at .353 this year while young for his level.

but yeah, you're right he doesn't have the natural walk rate as those other guys. the good news there is that he wasn't striking out at all when he was at age appropriate levels....though he has started to strike out at a more average rate since he's been moved up ahead of his age cohort in his last 2 stops.

its too early to tell anything this year but its nice seeing him off to a hot start - his GCL performance last year was legit elite across the board, and while his shorter performance in bluefield was mediocre, he was young for that level.

especially exciting as most scouting reports had him as a glove-first catcher when we signed him.

not an oversight Mike, i'm just still skeptical on a guy his age - for me i'm not going to include any guy who I see as 2yrs old for his level unless he's really dominant, and while Murphy has been good he hasn't been dominant. I'll start thinking of him as a real prospect if he starts looking decent in AAA, or if his AA numbers become too dominant to ignore....and he's well on his way to that if he can show his last 4 starts are a trend and not just a blip.

Murphy has also missed almost 2 1/2 years due to injury. That has to be taken into consideration. It is highly irregular to consider Waguespack a better prospect and same for Perez but to a lesser extent. I expect Murphy to be in the Jays rotation sometime next season.

murphy is 24 in a week or two, and has consistently been a couple years old for his level, was mediocre for most of his career until last and this year, where he's been very good, but not dominant. Stuff-wise he still profiles more as an RP than an SP, too. so i'm holding off for now.

Hector Perez features a similar big fastball with limited secondary offerings. He's a full year younger than Murphy and was performing well in AA last year at 22 - performing at a similar as Murphy did at age 22, except that Murphy was all the way down in Lansing. I'm not even much of a fan of Perez, as he's looking mediocre in AA whille being old for the level. But even then, I see Perez' .443babip and 3.67xfip and see that he's never had this kind of era-vs-peripherals issues before and see that as probably pretty fluky. The bottom line there though is that last year at age appropriate 22 in AA Perez was more than holding his own (which is more than I can say Murphy has ever done), so for me i can't write him off just based on a few weeks with a crazy babip.

as for Wague, i'm a little more generous in including AAA guys just because they might be imminent callups, not because i think they're good prospects - but even Wague has put up similar numbers as Murphy at a similar rate of development, though Wague has started to have ERA lagging behind his FIPs problems since he got to AAA, which is probably stuff-related. But still, Wague had solid mid-3s fip and xfip last year in AAA at 24, and the year before in AA at 23. For me that's enough to keep him interesting, though i'm on the verge of giving up on him too.

you've been very right about older pitching prospects before, so you're probably right now too.

but for me, I don't see the stuff (only 2 pitches) or performance (only good not great numbers the past 2yrs while old for his levels).

I don't mind expecting big improvements from guys young for their levels, but not so much for guys old for their levels.

but admittedly I could look silly here just a month from now, if he carries his recent 4 starts level of performance up into AAA.

Again UO, Murphy is only old for his level because of missed time due to several injuries. If not for that, he likely would have arrived at this level 2 years ago. Being awarded pitcher of the year in FSL seems dominant enough for me.

well we've had plenty of pitchers with major injuries catch up to their levels very quickly. he's been quite healthy for a few years now, and is still moving very slowly through the system.

and tbh I think winning minor league awards or titles are usually more of a strike against a prospect, as no prospect that's actually dominating a level should stay at that level long enough to win awards, unless they're very young.

I beg to differ. Murphy has not been moving slowly through the system. He was only completely healthy last season and spent the entire year in FSL for that reason. I think you are totally wrong on this one UO. A conservative approach is being taken with him due to the past injuries. I still expect to see him in major league rotation by mid season 2020 at the latest.

cephalopods at stake!

You explained your point very well UO. Your reasons are fine and I and others disagree which is also fine. I am impressed.

I too put a lot of weight on injuries. I really don't know why he stayed in the FSL all of last year.
If he only has 2 pitches that could be a problem.

Romano dominated the 1st half of last year in AA. AAA has given him trouble this year.

Enough pitchers are getting hurt so Murphy will get his ML test soon enough.

In a chat at Baseball America today it was reported that one scout put a "20" (lowest grade) on Alejandro Kirk's catching ability. Jesse Goldberg-Strassler has weighed in to say that Kirk is a good receiver.

It was also noted that while Kirk could hit well enough for first base, he is too short to play there when compared to most taller first basemen.

Here are the specifics:

BlueJayMatt (Toronto):

I know you guys are big fans of Alejandro "El Capitan" Kirk, what are you hearing from scouts? How is the framing and defense coming along? The plate discipline and approach for such a young player seems elite.

Kyle Glaser: Josh Norris is chairman of the fan club. I haven't seen Kirk for myself but I've made some calls on him. To be honest, the scouts I've spoken with are not high on him. They see a future AL 1B/DH type, except he's too short to play 1B. He's got a good swing and gets the barrel to the ball - that will carry him. The scouts I've spoken to just see him as a hard guy to fit on a roster because they don't see the catching skills.


James (Buffalo):

What are the chances Alejandro Kirk stays at catcher? And how special is that bat?

Kyle Glaser: I had an evaluator put a 20 on his catching (the worst possible grade on a 20-to-80 scale)...so yeah, that's where that is.

UO is dispensing false information on Patrick Murphy, whether on purpose or due to lack of research I don't know. Murphy has 3 pitches that he uses regulary. He has a killer curve and a better than average fastball. Last season, he develped a change up which has greatly improved his overall performance.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/improved-changeup-stands-out-for-blue-jays-patrick-murphy/

Murphy had thoracic outlet syndrome which would affect his nerves and ultimately his feel for pitching. I felt that last season once his strikeout numbers increased in the second half it was a sign that he regained a lot of that ability. I think Murphy is a very good pitching prospect.

Two comments on those scouts’ reports on Kirk. It may well be C or bust for him (positionally). If he’s listed at 5’9” then there’s a decent chance he’s actually an inch or two shorter than that which is an issue for 1B. As for the C reports, some scouts are going to say “bad body, bad defender” without really looking at Kirks’ actual defence. I’m reserving judgement for a while. Jansen was supposed to be a poor defender too and that conclusion seems premature.

PeterG, BP scouted him just last week:

[Baseball Prospectus] Scouting Report on Patrick Murphy May 16th 2019
Mechanics

Partial windup. Consistent to balance point then the delivery gets erratic; highly variable arm action from break to release, leading to lots of inconsistencies throughout profile. Toe tap as he starts drive toward home plate that can disrupt sync between lower half and arm. Has stretches where everything aligns and he repeats, but these stretches are limited. Athleticism allows him to overcomes mechanical issues in many cases.

Fastball

60FV SPD 94-95, T98

Established early and used consistently throughout start. Built velocity from first to third innings, starting out 91-94 and then working 94-96 deep into the game, and still touched 97-98 in the 7th inning. Throws strikes with consistency but struggles to command pitch due to mechanical challenges. Plays up with extension at the end of delivery, as ball appears to jump at hitters; riding life up in the zone and shows some sinking action when he finds the knees. Difficult to square and is the backbone of his success. Command concern holds back ultimate grade; some potential to play up with additional velocity in shorter bursts.

Curveball

FV60 SPD 80-82

Very good pitch; consistent 11-5 break with tight rotation and biting action. Varied depth of pitch at times. Worked pitch almost exclusively in the strike zone and rarely threw out of the zone to induce chase swings; pitch has chase potential as he commands it better and gets more creative with his use of the offering. Demonstrated limited ability to move pitch east-west, but flashed on occasion, particularly against lefties; utilized in any count with success and showed willingness to throw it multiple times in a row as he identified weaknesses in hitters. Swing-and-miss pitch that will find success against MLB hitters.

Changeup

FV30 SPD 87-89

Very firm and often overthrown; lacks velocity separation or movement. Takes the look of BP fastball more often than not; frequently left up in the zone and was smoked on a couple of occasions in this look. Shows no feel for offering with little projection; unlikely to remain part of the arsenal at the highest level.

Overall

Strong, physical frame and good athleticism. Lengthy injury history (thoracic outlet syndrome and Tommy John) but working on his fourth consecutive healthy season. Confident demeanor; attacks hitters with his two best pitches and relies heavily on those offerings. Changeup lacks projection to maintain starting profile; fastball/curveball combo plays and would survive in low-leverage MLB innings right now. Projects to moderate leverage with occasional peaks slightly better.

60 fastball, 60 curveball and a firm change seems like a Lance McCullers -ish profile to me, but at the work case two 60 pitches puts him in the bigs as a great reliever.

Y Diaz had a V good game for NH tonight.

UO, one viewing is hardly a reliable scouting report. We will see what happens the remainder of this year and next. I am betting it will be positive.