Some Team Stats So Far (pitchers are excluded from the hitting stats):

Hitters

7.5bb% (T-27th)
26.7k% (30th)
.221avg (28th)
.138iso (28th)
73wRC+ (T-29th)
+1.7def (T-10th)
-1.6bsr (23rd)
0.2war (29th)

The hitting is pretty dire. Only thing that looks remotely positive is the defense, and not by much.


Starting Pitching

5.0ip/gs (25th)
20.3k% (23rd)
10.2bb% (29th)
10.1k-bb% (27th)
98era- (T-16th)
100fip- (16th)
104xfip- (T-21st)
4.80siera (25th)
1.9ra9war (T-19th)
2.1fwar (18th)

Not completely awful, but definitely subpar. This likely won't be helped as we continue to miss shoemaker and richard, and now buchholz, with stroman and sanchez possibly traded as well.

Bullpen

145.1ip (5th)
25.2k% (T-12th)
9.7bb% (10th)
15.5k-bb% (T-15th)
76era- (3rd)
93fip- (T-11th)
99xfip- (T-14th)
3.88siera (T-15th)
1.9ra9war (T-7th)
0.8fwar (T-16th)

Actually legit solid bullpen. Overachieving in terms of runs allowed, but still solid by every metric, despite a big workload.

I wish our FO would just keep pouncing on this secret that they've obviously unlocked - middling milb SP with non-overwhelming but unique stuff who can be turned into very good MLB RP (Biagini, Pannone, Gaviglio, etc), and stop trying to turn them into MLB SP.

On the hitting side, the strike zone control problems and the lack of OBP was entirely predictable - this is an awful roster on all of those fronts. The lack of power is more of a surprise and will likely improve as the year moves along. The defence has been a positive surprise, but the additions of Galvis and Sogard and Jansen's improved defence likely make it a sustainable surprise.

I think Thornton is the next middling prospect that could become a legitimately good RP for this club. He needs to be given his shot to try and make it as a starter, but he looks like Joe Biagini reincarnate to me with his two (sort of) pitch arsenal.

I started the season hoping for a 1983 type situation - kids around all over the place but earning their spots or 1982 when many were starting to really show they belonged. Instead it is looking like 1981 - very young (25.9 average batter age) very bad - dead last in Avg, OBP, and Slg; 66/57 SB/CS. Pitchers walked more than anyone else in the league. Bright spot was Dave Stieb emerging at 23 as a star, while future stars broke in (Jesse Barfield, Lloyd Moseby, Damaso Garcia). Sadly the super-hyped two sport star at 3B didn't work out - Danny Ainge, who was a future NBA All-Star.

That team really, really, really sucked. The strike that ate up 1/3rd of the season was a blessing for them. 16-42 (45 win pace) pre-strike, 21-27 post strike (71 win pace).

Socrates Brito DFA'ed. The end of an era. Jon Davis up AND Javy Guerra who is added to the 40 in Brito's place. Pannone will be recalled if Buchholtz goes to DL.

Happy for Jonathan Davis. I think he profiles more as a 4th OF, but he might already be the 2nd best OF on the team without a single big league AB so far, and his numbers in AAA were great. Let him run with CF and see if his defense and base running can compensate for his (projected) bat.

I'm a big skeptic but there's no holes in David's hitting line other than just small sample size.

Bucholz goes on IL so Pannone officially back. Vlad hits in the 2 hole tonight.

It's good that Pannone is back.  They need all the pitching options they can get, as they don't really have anyone ready to go more than 2 innings.  I imagine that Ryan Feierabend will get called up to make a start shortly

It's nice they cut bait so quickly but still frustrating imo that they thought guys like brito/hanson were actually useful trade returns to even a small degree.

And I'm not sure guys like Drury and Teoscar are doing much more to justify their roster spots either.

Vladdy hits 2nd tonight. I think the move will suit him nicely. His at bats have been way better than the results suggest.

Boy that’s a string of good news for a change. Brito gone, Davis and Guera up, and Jr batting with mor protection behind him. Too bad Clay is down but at least it might account for his recent results

Yeah, the Brito DFA was a matter of time. Davis had a rep as a plus defender in the minors. Didn't really see it in September, but hope it was just rookie jitters.

As far as defense, it may be even better than decent. Jay Jaffe has an article team defence at FG.

Jays ranks through May 8:

Defensive Efficiency: (Bbref) #6
Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: (BP) #5
UZR: #16
DRS: #10
Team Shift Runs Saved: 3 way tie- #2/3/4

Also has a video of Edwin playing 2nd base for Seattle the other day (did not go well for Edwin)

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-team-defense-so-far/

Shelly Duncan was said to have suggested the Brito acquisition. Maybe he's next to get DFA'd. :)

Whenever a situation like the Brito one occurs I am always curious to understand what some very smart baseball (I do believe that they are smart) saw in Brito that I do not. My questions would be: is anyone in the FO surprised that Brito can’t hit anything other than a FB? If they aren’t surprised (and I presume that they aren’t) what was the appeal? I’d would love to know the answers.

Brito didn't looked good at the plate. He don't think he tried to steal a base when he was on, despite the speed. He looked completely hyped out and unfocused in the outfield, like a teenager after a Red Bull.

Let's see if anyone claim him. He's supposed to be good at AAA, Buffalo could use that.

Would be nice if Davis can bring his high OBP to the Jays as they could use someone who can consistently reach base, and of course his speed will be huge asset on the base paths and the outfield. Hopefully results look more like Smith Jr than Socrates; while he doesn’t have as much power as Smith Jr, he’s a better fielder, so who knows.

I'm pretty skeptical about Davis - he turns 27 this weekend, and he didn't hit a lick in the minors until his second crack at AA last year. But at least he's not Brito. For this relief, much thanks.

he didn't hit a lick in the minors until his second crack at AA last year

Not the case. His debut with Bluefield was good: 121 wRC+; in 2015 he had a 123 wRC+ across two levels; 2016 he was excellent in high-A: 142 wRC+. He's only had one below-average year as a hitter: an injury-marred 2014.

He's definitely made slow progress, but he's been a pretty consistently good hitter as he's ascended the ladder.

I also like the fact he knows what a walk is, which is unusual for a blue Jay in the last few years. Explains his 350+ OBP in the minors over 7 seasons.

This guy is pretty good: https://twitter.com/Ben13Porter/status/1126705710035656704

NIGEL``Whenever a situation like the Brito one occurs I am always curious to understand what some very smart baseball (I do believe that they are smart) saw in Brito that I do not. My questions would be: is anyone in the FO surprised that Brito can’t hit anything other than a FB? If they aren’t surprised (and I presume that they aren’t) what was the appeal? I’d would love to know the answers.``SCOTTT ``Brito didn't looked good at the plate. He don't think he tried to steal a base when he was on, despite the speed. He looked completely hyped out and unfocused in the outfield, like a teenager after a Red Bull.``
Last year was his big breakout, but I`m curious if that was just a PCL fluke, or if he was doing something differently this year? If there's a change and it's fixable (maybe he got dumped for not listening/being open to instruction? Who knows) then maybe someone gets a useful player for cheap. Probably not.

Sorry, still skeptical about Davis... I just see a bunch of .240 seasons with no power. By far the best thing he did was take lots and lots of walks. I just don't think that's likely to work as well against major league pitchers as it did in the minors. And his best minor league performances came when he was repeating the level. And he's older than Aaron Sanchez and Dalton Pompey. He's two years older than Billy McKinney.

But sometimes they surprise you. And he's not Brito.

I’m not sure about Davis’ offensive profile either but he can play CF which this team needs. As was said above, he knows what a BB is which is also something the lineup can use. I see a chance that he could have a Reed Johnson like career. That won’t move the needle for the franchise but given the state of the OF in Toronto and in the high minors that would be a useful thing.

Career milb - on average about 3yrs old for his levels:

11.0b%, 19.4k%, .310bip, .259avg, .359obp, .147iso, 122wrc+

I guess I can squint there and see an avenue to him getting close enough to league average with the bat that if his speed and defense are elite as advertised he can be pretty valuable.

Compare him to Pillar, who was about 2yrs old for his levels on average:

5.7b%, 12.5k%, .356bip, .324avg, .367obp, .155iso, 134wrc+

Overall definitely a better line than Davis', but on the other hand pillar was relying on a lot more babip and had less of a safety net in terms of walk rate.

So maybe Davis can be pillarish with the bat....but can he be anything like him defensively?

So the team is now 28% rookie.

Harold Ramirez called up by the Marlins. Smart guy signing with the only team with a worse outfield than ours.

Would we want a hitter who hits .258/.375/.484/.859 ? Seems Josh Donaldson is still a pretty reasonable hitter.

Yes, Donaldson is still a good hitter. No, I don't want him.

He plays the same position as Vlad. We're a 90 loss team without him. With him an 86 loss team? What's the point? Yeah, he could be trade bait at the deadline if he's still healthy at the deadline.

I've never been optimistic about Davis, but he has continued to make progress on his very long trek through the minors. Maybe he has some value for a few years, but Reed Johnson? Johnson played 13 years in the big leagues.

Harold Ramirez was hitting .355 with an OPS of .999 when called up. I thought he had made a breakthrough last season in New Hampshire, adding some power and steals to his high batting average, and was very disappointed to see him go. The steals, perhaps predictably, have not carried through to this year, but the power has actually increased, with 4 HR's in 110 AB's. He's only 24, and I think he has a decent shot at being a pretty good player.

In other news Travis d'arnaud is now the next breakout candidate to become near elite.

The only value Donaldson would have had to the Jays this year is trade bait in July, and taking that same exact chance in 2019 when we saw it fail miserably in 2018 would have been an unnecessary risk to take. If he was an outfielder, then sure I would have kept him and qualified him (he'd be blocking no one important), but 3B was kind of important to free up by late-April.

In 2016 we tied for the WC. That year we had exceptional good rotation health. Who gets the blame or credit for this?? IMO nobody. Boston is having serious rotation injuries and poor performance this year. So it happens to other teams as well.

Until the Jays team failed in 2017 and 2018 the FO had to go for it. I think it was a good decision because a healthy Stroman and Sanchez would have made for a stronger team. Not 97 wins like Oakland most likely. The 85 wins for the Twins was very possible.

Travis d'arnaud is now the next breakout candidate

???
sarcasm, I guess, but TDA is an injury-ridden 30 years old, harold ramirez is a healthy 24.
I really don't have a problem with a management team moving on from fringy players, but it is frustrating to watch the fringy billy mckinney and and the fringy teoscar hernandez get loads of run while harold ramirez got none and dwight smith jr. was seemingly just a guy with options in the minds of the FO.  which players would you rather have right now?  I'd stick with our incumbents, maybe?  but they cost assets to acquire.  

Luciano is interesting as a fringe player, sure, but we are looking at an investment here as well - a roster spot all season for a kid with nearly as many walks as innings, one that could have been used on Bergen or a vet reliever who could be dealt at the deadline.  is that prospect of more or less value than Luciano?  Does anyone actually see Luciano producing value out of the pen this season?  I certainly hope the FO does not - this has to be asset management only. 

Gaviglio and Sogard represent fringy hits for the FO, relatively speaking of course, but this FO does not seem to have much skill in improving the team with marginal moves, and definitely not with younger marginal players.  we got a boatload of 'prospects' at the deadline and in the past, but I can't think of one outside of Thornton that has me feeling optimistic right now.  

letting Donaldson go represents an obvious FO failure at this point in my opinion.  multiple sites / commentators had his signing as one of the steals of the offseason, and all we had to do was qualify the guy, so if we slotted him at DH, that is where he plays - he wasn't blocking Vlad.  The whole idea that we couldnt offer the guy a QO because it was too risky was silly then and is sillier now.  maybe it was the right time to move on from him, but if this FO is so risk-averse that they were legit concerned about him accepting a QO, thats way too risk averse for my taste. 

to me, it's pretty fair to say that the front office's plan long-term still seems reasonable, and short-term, the results seem disappointing.  I know the perception of some posters is that FO critics are naive, but when do we get to start acknowledging results now, and not just a long-term vision that is supposedly so strong?

118 mph grounder from Vlad Jr? That's CRAZY.
Apparently Stanton has the record with a GB at 120.3mph.
At least Guerrero got a hit

Jays have acquired Edwin Jackson.

Jays have acquired Edwin Jackson.

Again. Likely for longer than the 10 minutes he spent with the team last time. I believe this is team #14 for Jackson.

So much talk about all our new all important milb pitching depth and still they have to go out end take flyers on replacement vets at the first sign of problems.

Not that Jackson isn't as good depth as any of the mid-20s guys, of course.

That's exactly why all the talk about pitching depth was always silly - no reason why you can't find perfectly comparable vet pitching depth for peanuts when needed.

I believe this is team #14 for Jackson.

Toss in the 12 minor league teams he's played for and the guy should have quite the uniform collection.

Hay, let’s not be too neighgative. Jackson has been a horse in the past.

Jackson had a decent half season with Oakland last year, but when unsigned during the offseason after declaring free agency. Oakland signed him on April 11th, and he has made 3 starts in the minors getting ready for the season. Probably could use another couple of starts in the minors, but it looks like he's coming straight into the Toronto rotation.

Jackson, Shoemaker, Buchholz and C Richard. I will count to see how many starts and IP we get from each and do a breakdown at the end of the season.

Borucki and SRF as well.

I suppose Shoemaker can go on the 60 day DL for Jackson to be added.

DSJ with another HR today, his 7th. He's hitting .282/.327/.493 (118 wRC+).

Grichuk, who has less overall value, has a wRC+ of 107 after his 7th HR today.

The difference is that Grichuk (who is a year older) is signed to a 5/$52m contract, while DSJ is fully controllable and is earning the minimum MLB salary.

DSJ is substantially outplaying every outfielder that the Jays have run out there this year. It's a low bar to clear, of course.

That is the epitome of sss. Grichuk has much more value than Smith by any measure other than one month and a bit. The Grichuk contract is a good one and a smart move by the FO. Smith, like Bergen, will come down to earth soon although in his case, average numbers might be possible. He could have been given a longer look in TO but I imagine most GM's would have made the same decision.

Holding on to Luciano is a no brainer imo.

DSJ will probably fall off somewhat. However, he now has 253 PA in the majors and has hit .283/.340/.470 over that stretch (BB 6.7%, K 20.2%) -- 118 wRC+, same as this year alone. That's not such a small sample size.

In my opinion, the Jays overcommitted in terms of years and risk when they agreed to the Grichuk contract, especially in a rebuilding year. It might not turn out to be that bad, but it was a defensive contractual move, not an especially creative one (like the Acuna and Albies extensions).

PeterG, I recall that you were a strong supporter of the three-year Morales contract at the time it was agreed to by the Jays, correct?

Greenfrog,

Do you also think the FO is over-committing on Vlad who is playing terrible? DSJ has been up a month and change. Are you related to him? Give it a rest already...

I would have signed James Shields.

I'm reading vague stuff about Stroman screaming when they pulled him from the game. Can't find video. Can anyone clarify?

Stroman didn't want to come out, but I wasn't paying a ton of attention. Screaming suggests much more than what I saw.

It wasn't screaming but he was pissed. I imagine trade talks will become more intense though I doubt the trigger is pulled before more arms return from the injury list.

Greenfrog, I would not say I was a strong supporter of the Morales contract but I was ok with it considering the circumstances. I don't see what that has to do with anything? Are you comparing Morales to Grichuk? I hope not. Grichuk is on target for between 2-3 WAR and I think at some point he may even exceed that so it seems good value and some needed stability in the OF.

Maybe it's the rumsies, but post 373969 had me giggling like school girl.

Lost in the whitewash today was a horrible day in the field for McKinney. Last year I thought he might be able to fight a corner OF position to a draw defensively but I’m not seeing that this year. That trade really does look like a 40 man roster flush by the Yankees.

With Fringy players you have to invest more than 1 year in them.
So, it makes sense to give most of the development time to some and crumbs to other.
Ramirez was a highly ranked prospect whom the Jays were able to acquire because he had reached a dead end.
Eventually, he made adjustments, but by then the Jays didn't have room for him.
They acquired Grichuck who is a solid outfielder and  Hernandez/McKinney are ahead in development. Those 2 have graduated from AAA and both have had success at the MLB level, just not consistently.

The only thing that frustrates me, is marginal players being demoted while they are producing at the MLB level. Chances are those guys will regress, but I'd like to see it happen.

They were lucky to be able to move Morales. They couldn't slot Donaldson at DH while he was there.
I'm not hot on Drury, but I understand that they decided to try him as the 3B backup. That's not a role Donaldson could have fielded either. In the end, I like to have Tellez hitting 1B/DH with Smoak. Smoak himself took a long time to become a good player. I would be satisfied if Tellez does it in half the time.

We're only in May. Davis is an interesting center field option. It's probably it for Pompey, but the roster will go 26 next year with an extra position player and a toolsy outfielder might be a good choice. Gurriel, Urena and Alford are on their last option too.



Luciano is 19. He will probably add 1-2 mph to his fastball, which is already better than league average, by age 23. He just needs to refine his other pitches to be a solid starter. The only limitation here is that he will have only 3 year of options to reach MLB. I think the odds are pretty good there. Bergen does not have the stuff to close or setup. He's just a lefty middle reliever. The Jays have several guys who could fill that role already if they want to move away from Pannone and Mayza. Kirby Snead, for example. The Jays have picked up a lot of pitching prospects who will probably end up in the pen. If Bergen is ever returned, he'll probably go straight to AA.

Back in the day people said Cecil Fielder should get 500 ABs to see what he could do.

His SSS extrapolated to V good offensive numbers. He had a great career with Detroit.

It is time for Stroman go. I like him, but you don't want your website young players around that.

(I don't know where that extra word came from)

Competing with 5 starters is an aberration. A team that competes should have decent starters blocked at AAA available to fill in. Either that or you have to be ready to spend money and/or prospects to fill the holes. The Jays had very little pitching depth in 17/18 and that was enough to put them out of contention.
Thing are looking promising on the front. Rebuilding the core is another matter but Guerrero just hit the hardest ball as tracked by statcast in Blue Jays history.

Just looked at the Stroman video and I didn’t think it looked too bad. (And I’m not a lover of his antics.)

Certainly tamer than what I recall of the wells-Gaston blowup of 30 years ago.

Yeah hate to have a guy that really wants to win like stroman infecting the young guys.

What does Smith have to do with Grichuk or his contract extension? For starters, Grichuk is only a year older than Smith but has four years and a 9 WAR already racked up in his big league career, and has a ~2.5 WAR projection for this season. If you want to argue that the contract extension he received was not much of a discount, then that's a fair point, but I'm not sure where DSJ enters into the discussion.

Screaming at your manager during the game is NOT acceptable. 'Really wants to win' is not even close to a reasonable excuse.

Having said THAT, I was judging it based on how it was reported. Some here are saying he wasn't really screaming at him. I'll have to look for footage.

I found the footage. The idea that this was 'screaming' on Montoyo is ridiculous.This was not that bad at a all.

He wasn't screaming. He was expressing displeasure at being removed, and continued to do so in the dugout - more vociferously than he should have. I've seen that dozens of times from pitchers. Borderline disrespectful to the manager/pitching coach, but it's not something that's going to get him run out of town. Not a big deal, IMO.

I guess Stroman was upset by the lack of run support.
The first run he gave up was a homerun and the second was an infield single followed by a mistake in which he made a bad pick up throw while trying to surprise the runner. That looked bad, but maybe that was a practiced set play. I have no idea.

Also, Stroman's next start will be against he same team, so no reason to try and throw 120 pitches.
You can do that then if you have a lead, but don't give them more ABs now.

Jackson was acquired for cash consideration and is probably no worse than Buchholtz.
Not much to gripe against here.

I guess Stroman was upset by the lack of run support.

If so, I can certainly sympathize with him. He’s pitched very well this season and is 1-6. I’d be cheesed off too!

That is part of being the ace. The first start is always a tough match up.
Things usually normalize over the next months.

The Jays loaded with left bats against Nova because they were hitting .400 against him.
Sogard 0 for 4, smoak 0 for 4, Tellez 0 for 4, Mckinney 1 for 4.

Guerrero 2 for 2 with 2 walks, Grichuk 2 for 2 (1 homer), Galvis 2 for 3 with a walk, Hernandez 0 for 4 and Maile 1 for 3.

C'est la vie.

Sanchez being Sanchez.

Bummer.

DSJ 1/3 with a HR (#8) and a walk so far today. Now hitting .281/.329/.507 (wrc+ 122). His solid hitting performance over his MLB career (now totalling 84 games) is starting to look like more than a fluke.

Focusing on present as opposed to past value, this year DSJ has been roughly twice as valuable as Grichuk, and he's been worth 2.5 WAR more than the combined worth of all the outfielders used by the Jays.

So, whether you want to focus on straight performance, or value for money, or or age / controllability / contractual flexibility, there is definitely some egg on the Jays faces at this point over their handling of the outfield situation.

Agreed greenfrog.

Greenfrog, I’m getting the feeling that you don’t understand sample size, but I’d need a few more posts to be sure.

"So, whether you want to focus on straight performance, or value for money, or or age / controllability / contractual flexibility, there is definitely some egg on the Jays faces at this point over their handling of the outfield situation."

Zips has DSJ at 92 WRC+ rest of the year with poor defense and Grichuk with 112 WRC+ with good defense. His statcast numbers are below league average. He will regress. Maybe Smith turned into something but you can't blame the Jays for giving up on a very mediocre looking prospect. (bad defense and showed no power in the minors) Not one site had Smith as a top-30 prospects for the Jays going into the year. I really don't need to see daily updates for DSJ and Travis Bergen. The Jays have made some bad moves (trading Olivares for Solarte looks terrible) but this is one that made absolute sense.

If I look at Drury for example.

Career 0.9 WAR. 1.7 WAR in 2017 and negative or 0 every other year.
2017 is also the only year he was  better than average defensively.
He hit 15 HR in A ball, 23 in A+/AA but just 5 in AAA
In the minor he was basically a .300 hitter with good walk/strike out rates.  5/12 as a Yankee, but only 7/55 as a Blue Jays. It seems to me he needsto be working the count and spraying hits to be successful, not aim for the fence on every pitch.

Eric Sogard has a higher WAR, wRC+, and ISO than Josh Donaldson, and Sogard is a year younger. Have to give the FO props for getting that one right.

Glevin makes a good point. For all the hand-wringing about Dwight Smith Jr. now, I suspect in a couple of months things will look quite different.

As Glevin points out, the Olivares-Solarte swap was questionable at the time and continues to look worse in retrospect. It was puzzling to trade a prospect of value for Solarte and Olivares' stock has only risen.

And, to tie it back to Smith Jr., if we were evaluating the Solarte trade solely on his first five weeks in Toronto, we'd have reached a short-sighted conclusion.

for me, its depressing that we're fighting over which hot streaks by AAAA players are more meaningful.

thankfully....Kawhi.

I wasn't a fan of Olivares when he was traded, seemed like a boom or bust type with a low probability of panning out, but he's definitely raised his stock after the trade, especially if he can play a competent CF. Even if Olivares is still a bit of a long shot, I'd understand being upset about losing him more than I do DSJ and Bergen.

This is a great deal of virtual ink spilled on AAAA/maybe 4th OFs here (that includes DSJ and a number on the Jays current roster) but the Jays don't offer much of a diversion right now so its not surprising. I didn't find the FO's decision on DSJ too surprising and I won't play MMQ on it now. I will say that picking up Brito after having let DSJ go is an odd one given that every scouting report that I read suggested that he couldn't hit anything other than a FB and that turned out to be 100% accurate.

Right now the Jays are in the tough transition phase. Last year at this point the Jays were 6 1/2 back 21-19 6 of their next 7, 17 of their next 22 to get to 16 1/2 back 26-35. Ugh. The rest of the season the team was 7 games under 500.

Just as that slump hit the lineup was ...
Teoscar Hernandez: 263/309/553
Josh Donaldson: 230/316/460
Yangervis Solarte: 253/329/486
...etc.
Over 800 OPS was Pillar (890), Curtis Granderson (921), Maile (902). We had lots of hope still. By the time that slump ended (June 7th) Donaldson was gone (May 28th was his final Jays game 1-1 with 2 walks), 800 OPS in the lineup was Hernandez (253/300/516), Smoak (827), and Maile (800). Sub 600's were Morales, Grichuk, Urshela, and Travis. Jaime Garcia was starting regularly. Ugh.

Right now only Sogard has an 800+ OPS+, with sub 600's in Hernandez, Vlad, Jansen, Maile, and most of the guys demoted/released. At least this sucking is seeing a lot of 25 and unders (Tellez, McKinney, Vlad, Jansen. Thornton is the only 25 or less in the rotation, Pannone, and Luciano in the pen. Forget that Sanchez is only 26 still.

More kids to come, more growing pains. Hopefully we see some return on that soon, but as any of us who survived 1981-1984 know it can be ugly but the potential rewards are amazing.

The way I remember it. The final OF spot was DSJ or Pompey. Traded Smith, then 2 weeks later we had neither. Traded Pillar before Davis was healthy so they needed a placeholder until either Davis showed enough to come up or Pompey healthy. Duncan recommended Brito for whatever reason.

The takeaway from all this is to keep Duncan away from the scouting department.

I am ok that we traded DSJ because we got Int'l money. But I don't know how bad he is. He is in the Majors and has yet to fail IMO.

I like to compare him to T Hernsndez and B McKinney. All 3 are equally cheap. McKinney and DSJ can catch the ball better than T Hernandez. I expect 25 HRs from T Hernandez and maybe 17 from DSJ and McKinney, this year. I think Ks are ok for McKinney and DSJ but high for T Hernandez.

Baseball IQ is a factor. DSJ is not lacking. Speed is a factor. I think DSJ is ok. He is 4-0 in SBs so far so maybe 12 SBs.

Kendrys Morales DFA.

"Greenfrog, I’m getting the feeling that you don’t understand sample size, but I’d need a few more posts to be sure."

Get that attitude out of here!

Greenfrog has said:

"DSJ will probably fall off somewhat. However, he now has 253 PA in the majors and has hit .283/.340/.470 over that stretch (BB 6.7%, K 20.2%) -- 118 wRC+, same as this year alone. That's not such a small sample size."

I think he gets it.

263pa is still a small sample, though.

especially for a guy who put up a 113wrc+ in 800pa in AAA and a 110wrc+ in over 1000pa in AA, with mediocre to poor underlying numbers.

Consider Teoscar's Start:

First 271pa: .316babip, 131wrc+
Since: 595pa, .292babip, 87wrc+

Agreed UO.

Hernandez looks to be a player whose contact issues are ultimately going to be fatal - especially without being able to add some defensive value to his player profile. If you strike out 30% of the time your margin for error is pretty small. Grichuk manages to sort of make it work with a significantly above average ISO and some defensive value while in the corners (which is one of the big reasons to get him out of CF as soon as possible). As I said the other day, the OF is where the FO has to start making some big decisions because its collectively a mess right now.

"263pa is still a small sample, though."

So how many PA is no longer a small sample size?

My main point really is that to be-little other posters is not cool.

Unless they really deserve it of course :P

"Consider Teoscar's Start:

First 271pa: .316babip, 131wrc+
Since: 595pa, .292babip, 87wrc+"

You're cherry picking your comparable.

If DSJ, Mckinney, and Teoscar are all lottery tickets with some probability that they will pay off, wouldn't you agree that DSJ's probability of paying off has increased (even if he may end up being a bum)?

I'm fairly optimistic about Teoscar. He's showing better plate discipline this year, and I expect the power to return. Couple that with much improved defence, and you have a pretty good player.

Pubster, I took the Dr. B comment to be a joke, similar to the xkcd comic : https://xkcd.com/552/

I got some chuckle out of it at least, and it wasn't at anyone's expense, it was at being able to illustrate SSS in the post itself.

ahh ok. You're probably right!

"You're cherry picking your comparable."

Just the first that came to mind.

But there are countless other examples.

Morales was just a replacement player.
Sogard is mostly the same.
I'm eager to see Biggio up, but I can wait until Guerrero heats up.

"Just the first that came to mind.

But there are countless other examples."

Can you find more comparables of players who had a solid first 250 at bats and then were bad MLB players? Or players who had a lousy first 250 at bats and then ended up being bad MLB players?

Nobody is pretending to know what DSJ is going to end up being. Just that he is moving the percentages in his favor.

Barry Bonds first 249 PA - 215/319/430 with 64 K's (25.7%) wasn't impressive, although he was just 21. For the season he hit 223/330/416 (103 OPS+) with 102 K's in 484 PA. Never again did he K 100 times in a season. That 223 BA was his worst by 25 points. I think he turned out pretty good. Yeah, yeah, we all knew he'd be special even with the poor rookie season.

Russ Adams had an amazing start - 124 OPS+ in 78 PA but for the rest of his brief career hit for a 75 OPS+ over 915 PA. I'm sure I could find someone with 200+ PA of 'wow' before going 'crap!!!' but not having luck right now.

The amount of posts on DSJ and his "success" through 250 ab... let's call this the low point of the season. If you believe DSJ is for real and the front office made a mistake, wait another 250ab...it will either reveal you are wrong or make your argument stronger. No point trying to convince anybody right now because most of us feel it's too short a window. That would be like Vlad struggling for another few months and then somebody coming on here every time he has a bad week and saying "can we acknowledge that Vlad was a mistake?" Even though there's way more data pointing to the opposite.

Pubster, Michael has it right. Most of what I say should be justly treated as
the nonsense it is (with apologies to Greenfrog for picking on him or
her this time.)

As I said the other day, the OF is where the FO has to start making some big decisions because its collectively a mess right now.
Yes, but is there anything that should be done _now_? I guess you could try converting an infielder (Gurriel, say), but just about everything else can wait. Or did you have something else in mind? If it were me I would probably wait out the year in the (slim) hopes that Hernandez remembers how to hit, or McKinney exceed expectations, or Pompey manages to stay away from the trainers room. (And no, I don't think Alford is going to make it). And if that doesn't work, _then_ I would dip into the free agent or trade market.

"Can you find more comparables of players who had a solid first 250 at bats and then were bad MLB players? Or players who had a lousy first 250 at bats and then ended up being bad MLB players?"

TONS! Do you remember Phil Clark? Doubt it but through 300 PAs he had a WRC+ of around 130. The rest of his career, it was around 53. How about Tyler Naquin? He had had a WRC+ of 133 his first 365 PA. It's been about 75 since. How about our own Brett Lawrie who looked like a superstar through 171 PAs. (157 WRC+). Or Eric Hinske who had 4.8 WAR as a rookie and never topped 2 WAR after that. Kevin Maas was a star is first 300 PAs (145 WRC+). Dan Johnson, Chris Coghlan, Austin Kearns, Chris Singleton, Bobby Kielty, etc...There are plenty of players who were better than Smith is now for much longer and turned out bad.

There are 19 players in major league history who had between 200 and 300 PAs in their first year with an OPS+ between 125 and 130 in their first season.  They include Mookie Betts and Honus Wagner, but also Jeff Francouer and Chito Martinez.  There hasn't been one as old as Dwight Smith Jr. since Fred Schulte in 1927.  Smith Jr., of course, doesn't have those 250 PAs in one season.  Schulte did have a decent career, but he was a centerfielder. 

The first one-and-done that comes to my mind is Joltin' Joe Charboneau.

Regarding DSJ: I get attached to our prospects. They are human beings with dreams and aspirations after all.

DSJ has earned his shot at the Majors IMO. If he can hang in there and have a 4th OF career like Zeke C, I consider that a big success. The Jays would not give him his chance and he seems to be helping Baltimore.

Dr.B, I’m not sure there is anything to be done about the OF now - like today. But decisions need to be made this year that are important that could/should guide talent acquisition (FA or trade). I would be working on the following assumptions;

- while Grichuk can play CF, doing so erodes a chunk of his value, he needs to move back to the corners;
- because of that, there isn’t an in house CF solution (Davis, Alford and Wall - all of whom have varying levels of interest- notwithstanding)
- because of that, the FO needs to think about a trade (Giles, Sanchez or a prospect reallocation trade for a CF - preferably LH with some OBP skills)
- decide that Gurriel isn’t a middle infielder and Biggio is, so play them full time in Buffalo/ Toronto accordingly
- assume that none of the current corner OF prospects is more than a 4th OF/platoon player so treat Hernandez, McKinney, Davis etc. accordingly (if they continue to struggle into July, for example, swap them out/send them down for another option)

My money is on Roman if there was a Quinn fight.

Wimpy had four inches and almost 20 pounds on Roman. Advantage Wimpy. On the other hand, Roman's still alive. Advantage Roman.

My issue with this narrative is less "can Smith keep this up" and more that it was a mistake to trade him and the FO should have known this would happen.

First he's a LF only at the MLB level and hadn't even been a plus defender there. In about half as many PA's last year, he had the same 124 wRC+, but was worth 0.1 fWAR. The difference this year is plus baserunning and UZR having him plus defensively, despite DRS and Statcast at -2 and -3 respectively. So the defensive improvement the FO should have seen may not have been an improvement at all.

"Pubster, Michael has it right. Most of what I say should be justly treated as
the nonsense it is (with apologies to Greenfrog for picking on him or
her this time.)"

No problem! Good to know.

"Can you find more comparables of players who had a solid first 250 at bats and then were bad MLB players? Or players who had a lousy first 250 at bats and then ended up being bad MLB players?"

"TONS! Do you remember Phil Clark? Doubt it but through 300 PAs he had a WRC+ of around 130. The rest of his career, it was around 53. How about Tyler Naquin? He had had a WRC+ of 133 his first 365 PA. It's been about 75 since. How about our own Brett Lawrie who looked like a superstar through 171 PAs. (157 WRC+). Or Eric Hinske who had 4.8 WAR as a rookie and never topped 2 WAR after that. Kevin Maas was a star is first 300 PAs (145 WRC+). Dan Johnson, Chris Coghlan, Austin Kearns, Chris Singleton, Bobby Kielty, etc...There are plenty of players who were better than Smith is now for much longer and turned out bad."

Sorry maybe my question was written poorly. I was asking are there more players who had a solid first 250 at bats and then were bad MLB players OR players who had a lousy first 250 at bats and then ended up being bad MLB players.

Agree hypobole on what the issue of contention is. Also the argument that it was a mistake to sign Grichuk in the face of DSJ being available for much less to provide similar or better value.

pubster, it is extremely, extremely common.

Kendrys Morales has been Designated for Assignment!

The Jays should... um... I can't even pretend....

"pubster, it is extremely, extremely common."

That doesn't answer the question though. My question is about the size of both groups and which is larger.

Found this piece interesting:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26740453/where-do-baseball-elite-starting-pitchers-come-from

Looked at the current top 75 mlb pitchers. 58% were "1st round" draft picks, 43% top 30 picks.

In the "spilled milk" vein we've been discussing, 29 of the 75 were traded as minor leaguers or after just a few innings in the majors.

"My question is about the size of both groups and which is larger."

Great question! Maybe you can research it yourself and let us know your findings.

The outfield is definitely a long-term organizational issue as is. Hernandez and McKinney are likely not big league regulars. Alford has fallen off badly since 2018. Pompey is constantly hurt and hasn't been good in years. Davis profiles more as a 4th OF. Grichuk is by far the best OF on the roster but even he has warts. The minor league system is not close to developing a big league outfielder unless they decide to play Biggio or Gurriel there full-time, and even in that scenario it's unclear how their defense/bats will play there.

I'm sure they will target outfielders in trades they make over the next few months, in addition to pitching. The FO has focused a lot on "near term" prospects on other teams, specifically those who are on another team's 40 man roster bubble. That hasn't lead to many upside acquisitions. I'm interested to see now that they are practically tanking 2019 whether that philosophy will shift in future trades.

I guess the big question  is how risky is it to draft a pitcher with a top 30 draft pick.
The Jays might have done well with last year's 3rd round pick. Time will tell.

Tonight the Jays play a team which hasn't been better than them and it's opener time in San Francisco.

"Great question! Maybe you can research it yourself and let us know your findings."

Wow that's pretty rude. Im pretty sure I already know the answer. Just wanted to see what others thought.

Ok, I'll start with an apology, pubster. Didn't sound like a guessing game, more like a research project.

And I would assume players that were bad through 250 and remained bad would be the larger group, though a sizable subsection of that group wouldn't remain bad for long because their careers would be rather short.

Very good point hypobole. Most bad players don't get 250 PA in the majors. DSJ getting that many indicates he has more talent than most. But is he good enough to be an everyday player? The O's are trying to find out. Generally guys like him need teams that suck big time to get a chance. The Jays are also looking for everyday players but saw enough to feel DSJ was no more than a 4th or 5th OF thus decided to focus on guys they still felt could be a starter. I don't always agree, but given how DSJ did in the minors I think they were on the right track. Sometimes players do emerge at the ML level but it is rare.

I recall similar debates with friends in the 80's about Rick Leach, Ron Shepard, Mitch Webster (who was 1/2 decent as a regular for the Expos), and others. But back then the Jays had a killer OF so it was hard to even get the 4th slot, let alone start.

"And I would assume players that were bad through 250 and remained bad would be the larger group, though a sizable subsection of that group wouldn't remain bad for long because their careers would be rather short."

No problem hyperbole! I should've been more clear.

And yeah I agree with you. My point is that although it's only 250 at bats, DSJ being good through those at bats has already started shifting the odds in his favour. Even if he ends up not making it. He's a lottery ticket whose chances of winning have went up.

But who cares about DSJ, Vladdy just hit 2 bombs!

Sorry meant hypobole.

My bad.