"I’m not trying to hit them out, they just leave."


- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Day One

So for game one, Vlad at third, or DH? I assume it will be third but DH makes some sense.

Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, and John Olerud all made their major league debuts as defensive replacements - Delgado behind the plate, McGriff and Olerud at first base (Olerud actually replaced McGriff in the game.) Delgado and Olerud both got to come to bat for the first time later in the game (Delgado drew a walk, Olerud hit a single). McGriff had to wait another day to get his first at bat (a bloop single - I remember, I was there!)

add in some light tarring and feathering before they go, imo.

Urena bumped for Vladdy.

That comment could be cryptic to some. Urena has been optioned to Buffalo.

There is room on the 40 man roster currently at 39 with 3 more on the 60 day DL. So 42 total. Vlad will take that 40th spot and the 25th spot.

I don't know the injury severity of J Merryweather, D Phelps and M Shoemaker. Are they bad enough to go on the 60 day DL?

2nd opinion was a good one:

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith
13m
Bo Bichette won't need surgery per Ross Atkins. He has a 4-6 week recovery period #BlueJays

Shoemaker will definitely go on the 60 day DL the next time a spot is required. Phelps and Merryweather will likely be pitching soon according to reports that I have seen.

Yeah, Shoemaker is very likely out for the full season with the ACL injury, so 60 day is no brainer.

I'm sure many have seen it but, A Letter From Vlad Guerrero to Vlad Jr.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9N5mROMJ3c

Well, it is against Avengers Endgame so that'll keep a lot of people from watching. Of course, I just got back from seeing it. No spoilers, but damn was it emotional.

Pretty well best case scenario for Bo.

Bo could be ready for an August promotion.

Any day now some prospects will have burned an option. Alford will be burning his 3rd. Eventually Urena will also burn his 3rd.

There are a lot of young Jays that will be at 450-550 ML ABs by the end of the season. Too little experience to expect to contend this year. But if it is like 2017 where nobody good was going to win the 2WC then we may belong in that group.

If a bad ground ball defense has superior offensive skills than a good ground ball defense, I would like to look at our 2021 potential rotation.

In order of ML debuts: Borucki, SRF, Thornton and Zeuch. Potential additions by about Aug 2020: P Murphy, Y Diaz, Z Logue and N Pearson. All are in AA or higher this year. Max Castillo may also be in there, maybe H Perez.

The above 8 are possibly in the 2021 rotation. Of course I don't know who will be injured or fail.

Urena has been optioned to Buffalo.

My initial reaction was "ugh? They keep the stiffs, they send out Urena?" But then I remembered the Bichette injury, and I like the idea of Urena getting regular at bats for the next couple of months. He's 10 months younger than Cavan Biggio, 18 months younger than Anthony Alford, and two and a half years younger than Lourdes Gurriel. He's still growing.

The interesting thing for me with the "regular ABs" for Urena is that Drury had 500 PAs at age 23 and he still has 2 options left while Urena is on his last. Drury was replacement level at age 23. He was more like a regular the following year, but only managed a 91OPS+ and it's been downhill since.

Urena has hit and he's the best shortstop they have.

Prediction for VGJ, 1 for 2 with 2 walks.

The Thome comparison is intriguing. Thome was brought up more like Urena than Vladdy. He spend his first 6 years playing mostly 3B and then moved to 1B. His total dWAR for those first 6 years is 0.1 while his total dWAR for his first six years at first is -7.8.  It's a lot easier to sign a 1B that will give you 3 or 4 WAR than a third baseman. It will probably depend a lot on what the farm produces.

Urena has hit and he's the best shortstop they have.

He may get to be better than Galvis, but I don't think he's there yet.

Sogard had a homer taken away from him by the wall in Minnesota. He hasn't turned into Joe Morgan but a little more pop seems to be part of his game now.

Vlady had an exit velocity of 106.8 mph on that groundout, the power is real.

"The Prince Who Was Promised."

All other theories can take a rest, Vlad is Azor Ahai.

Yeah, on merit, Urena shouldn’t have gone down but when you aren’t trying to win then merit isn’t always the determining factor. Sending Urena down isn’t the worst idea. But, as I said on the other thread, sending Drury, Brito and Hansen down for Davis, Biggio and the soon to be needed extra pitcher, now that would make this a better (and more interesting) team.

There goes the perfecto. 😀

The best reason for Urena going down is it lets him play every day at shortstop as opposed to coming off the bench behind Galvis, Vlad and Drury up here. That makes sense to me - he's a young player, he's still developing, he needs to play. Whereas Hanson isn't here to develop. He is what he is. Have a seat on the bench, fill in if necessary.

Well, I hope that's the thinking behind it.

Vlad does have a strong arm at 3B.

Stroman is on 6 days rest and looked fantastic. He should be able to start the 8th inning at 97 pitches against the bottom of the order.

At the rate things are going Stroman is going to make things very interesting for the Rogers marketing machine. If he continues to pitch as he has, how are they going to spin not offering him an extension when the player is still youngish, adamant that he wants to be here and you have no big contracts on the books?

Get rid of Drury.

The Jays will have to figure out a way to extend VGJ. It will be beyond embarrassing if he leaves as a free agent in his prime because Rogers failed to do what it took to keep him in Toronto (while extending players like Grichuk).

You can see how special Vlad is from that double in the ninth. Shortened his swing with two strikes, waited forever, took that ball out of the catcher's glove and flicked it down the right field line.

Haha. Yes, that Drury HR is a double edged sword. It probably guarantees an extension of the Brandon Drury Experience for sometime yet. Stroman was excellent. Thumbs up to Montoyo for his usage of Giles in a tied game.

That was fun. The energy level at the RC returned.

I think the Jays are prepared to give Drury the entire season to turn things around. They wouldn't have traded Happ for him if they didn't think he could improve. He's better defensively than I thought he'd be, but the bat is what will make or break him. I think at this point you play him at 2B everyday until about June, and if he's still struggling, then you consider calling Biggio up to take his spot. Of course, if the team still views Gurriel as a 2B, then that further complicates things.

Fun win tonight.

I think Drury has a better chance of being the player the Jays think Grichuk will be. And I agree that signing Grichuk to that extension means Stroman and Vlad should be resigned and if they don't it will be embarrassing (to waste money on Grichuk that could've gone to them).

On top of a Vlad Jr debut we can enjoy looking at the Yankees lineup today which features Gio Urshela as the clean-up hitter.

On the negative side, Vlad jr. cost me almost $200 after the game. For the jersey my wife wanted.

Probably my only game this year, but glad i saw what i'm pretty sure will be a piece of history. Kid is amazing.

But I thought for sure Drury was going to ruin my night....

Using Giles in a tie game at home in the 9th inning is just standard procedure, which all teams do. You can't get a save at home in a game that is tied after 8 innings, so you put your closer in for the 9th.

Yes, the Jays saw something in Drury that they liked, and I'm sure they will give him a fairly long trial. I'm almost equally sure that he will not succeed.

Signing Vlad to a long term deal to buy out some of his free agency would be great, and I imagine the Jays would love to do that. The thing is, it takes 2 to tango. Vlad has to want it too, and none of us has any idea if that is something he wants.

Great game from Stroman. He's really increasing his trade value, if that's the route the Jays go.

Great game. Vlad couldn't walk because the ump was calling strikes outside the plate.
He hit his double on a ball that was in the same spot as a called strike.
That's great hitting.

The Jays missed a bunch of hittable pitches and the A's connected on one.
That's how it goes. I would have liked Stroman to get that win.

The lineup seems so much better now.
Once Freddy is back, Sogard will get a large share of starts against right handed hitters.
That leaves Drury on the wrong side of a platoon.

Maybe Guerrero will DH once a week or so, maybe against a lefty, because otherwise that will push Tellez to the bench.

Then we watch if Biggio keeps putting MVP numbers. That leaves no room for Travis.

Tellez and Jansen are no longer prospects and the mlb pipeline 29th and 30th spots are filled by Kevin Vicuna and Riley Adams.

Justin Smoak is back to being of the leagues better hitters this season, with an xwOBA in the 88th percentile. His plate discipline seems to keep getting better as he ages and his power is still there, so is there any reason for him to remain one of the league's better hitters through the next few years? He would not cost much to keep around, and if his value is no more than what we received for Pillar I would not trade him. The last time the Jays opened a window is through wise extensions with late blooming power hitters in Jose and Bautista.

I have been a Smoak supporter in his Blue Jays tenure but I won't extend him - he's making 8M this year and would probably cost more & lots of capable 1B available each winter - also Tellez/Hernandez/McKinney could all play there - not to mention I don't know when Vlad will need that spot.

With a rebuilding team, makes sense to play Drury everyday so he can solidify his spot and/or increase his trade value but Sogard is playing well enough to at least platoon - will be interesting to see how manager Montoyo allocates playing time.

I'm not going to hyperventilate about a lack of a longterm deal for Vlad - it takes 2 to tango,lots can happen in 7 seasons, the nationals are surviving Harper leaving and I expect a deal eventually.Just enjoy Vlad being here while you can.

I think this FO will remember the lessons of 2017's missed opportunities and market Stroman/Sanchez/Giles etc. - at this moment I think that's the smart play.

I think Smoak and Tellez can share 1B and DH and Hernandez is looking better in left this year. Overall I think McKinney is more of a left handed platoon partner in the outfield, than a regular. I just don't think outside of Vladdy and maybe Tellez there is a player on this current roster who projects as a better overall hitter than Smoak through 2021.

It remains to be seen how well Washington does post-Harper. Right now Philly is in first place in the division and the Nats are below .500.

Lately teams have been moving decisively to extend their elite young talent (for example, Acuna, Albies, Jimenez, Hicks). And elite mid-career players are getting extended as well (Goldschmidt, Trout). I’m not sure why the Jays would want to fail to take advantage of a similar opportunity to hang on to a similarly talented (and highly marketable) player, if the opportunity is there. You know AA would have gotten it done, had he been able to convince Rogers to part with the cash.

Vlad Sr. played 6+ seasons for the Expos, leaving as a free agent. He left a team that drew 12,000 fans a game and an organization that was majestically imploding. Hopefully Vlad Jr's story will be very different, but of course he, too, could leave after his 6+ seasons.

It is worth remembering that the two men's lives have been very different, and that could greatly distinguish their motivations. One was born into abject poverty and the other has lived a life of privilege.

It is tricky business to ever presume to understand what motivates ourselves (our semi-fictitious post hoc rationalizations notwithstanding), let alone what motivates others.

The issue with signing Vlad Jr is that he would have to agree to it. His father made $125M in baseball, and he himself signed for $4M in 2015. He will be a free agent at age 26, and as a Super 2 his final two years of arbitration will likely resemble a free agent contract. I can't think of any reason why he'd sign a team friendly deal like some of the other players have unless he 1) doesn't believe in himself, or 2) fears a lockout so much that he gives away his prime for less than its worth to avoid financial uncertainty later. I don't think either of those two statements are true. Even when teams have sat on their wallets the past few off-seasons, elite players still got paid. If Vlad is as great as he projects to be, then I don't think he will have to worry about the free agent market.

If there is an opportunity to sign him, then absolutely go for it and don't look back, but I think it's too early to worry about it now. A lot can happen in 7 years.

To me, Stroman will be the most interesting case to watch. He's a very good SP, presumably wants to stay in Toronto based on everything he's said, and the Jays are very weak in the SP department across the organization. If they trade him now, especially with extensions for players a year or so away from free agency being a lot more prevalent, then it would be pretty disappointing unless the return was amazing.

We have the 3rd worst Runs scored and the 3rd best Runs against in the AL. Over all we are +4.

7 years down the road is not worth fussing about.
We don't know what other players will be on that team.
Just look at what happened after 93.
Maybe the attendance wasn't great, mostly because they didn't make the playoffs, but Guerrero had his Hall of Fame years in Montreal, not in LA.

Pitching is completely unpredictable.
Prospects needs to develop and stay healthy. Vets needs to stay healthy and manage loss of velocity.
Right now the outfield seems to be an area to improve and yet it's not like the cupboard is bare. Dwight Smith got traded because they had no room for him.

For now, a Stroman trade would leave a hole in the rotation so it might have to wait until next winter.
They could trade Galvis, Sogard, Smoak, Drury, etc.  Drury has only 2 years of service time because he wasn't  healthy last year. That's not exactly a plus. They have Biggio, Bichette, Gurriel and Urena, none of which can or should spend any time at AAA next year. Alford is in the same boat. Returns won't be amazing.

They A's traded for Profar, because he finally had a 2.1 WAR season last year, but so far he's been worth -0.9 WAR. There's always somebody willing to pay for your garbage. It just takes a bit of shine.

7yrs down the road with vladdy in his prime is probably worth fussing about more than this year is.

Acuna and Albies were worth fussing about. Why not Vlad, too?

If Vladdy wants to sign the kind of deals that Acuna and Albies signed, fantastic.

Why not sign him for more?

I didn't say not to sign him for more - I hope they reach a solid deal for both sides but I'm not going to obsess over it - I'm going to try and enjoy his time here, however long that is.

I don't think 85BlueJay is saying not to worry about signing Vlad. I think, shock, he might just be one of the few people trying to actually you know, enjoy what we have without having to rationalize and point out flaws, mistakes or endings that aren't perfect.

After we sign Vlad then what? The same posters fussing right now will start to fuss about something else. Some people will never be happy. Just enjoy the fact that we have him and hope that the people put in charge of running the team are able to sign him so you can sleep better at night knowing that in 7 years you may still be happy...but you're fussing now so who's to say you won't be fussing again in 7?

My choice is to not fuss about Vlad signing as well.

Our farm has been highly rated recently so I expect some good ML players to arrive. D Jansen, Tellez should get to 500 ABs this year that should prove their value. McKinney, Gurriel and Urena are being given their test.

More will be arriving. Dunedin and Lansing have a few players that look close to being promoted to AA.

Atkins believes in depth very strongly and has provided it. He is also hoarding young players like Brito and Hanson. Both unproven.

Drury is also young. 26 years old. But the bar is being set high which means that he will have to compete with talented players.

Injuries happen. Vlad has been injured this year and last year. Bo is out for 2 months.

Our pitching depth is quite good. Helps us deal with injuries Zeuch and Borucki. SRF is using AAA to get it together. Thornton is doing it in the Majors. All our SPs in AA are struggling to dominate that level, similar to SRF and Connor Greene in 2017.

Pearson is dominating Dunedin but is building up his arm. Max Castillo is doing quite well in Dunedin and turns 20 May 4. Winckowski is dominating Lansing and turns 21 June 28.

Atkins and the rest of his team maybe see (V big maybe) something in those AAA SPs like S Morimando a lefty that is 26 for the whole season.

The same posters fussing right now will start to fuss about something else.

In all sincerity, why are you worried if other people fuss? Isn't that their prerogative? Their fussing should have no effect on you.

dalimon5 I will take the under 7 for fussing.

VGJ bats cleanup against the lefthander today. As he should. Hanson is in right field batting 9th.  When Galvis is ready, it would be nice to have Jonathan Davis on the squad.

Pre-Vladdy, Tellez has shown the most power on the team and heading into today he has hit the ball on average 100 ft further than Allan Hanson.

I am wondering how much further than that Vladdy will crush the ball than even Tellez, the early returns were very promising.

damn right I will "fuss" about whether management takes advantage of having maybe the best Jay ever on their hands, or just fritters it away with their value-above-all approach.

The Angels have the best player ever and a terrible team supporting him.
And it's not because they're cheap, but because they spent foolishly.

The key to maximizing the Vlad years is being able to develop young talent along side him. That's likely why we are seeing a bunch of young fringe type of players getting everyday AB's (Teoscar, McKinney, Drury, etc) rather than the Granderson/Pearce stop-gap types. If the Jays guess correctly on even one of those guys and that player can potentially become a long-term piece, then it's going to help in getting to a contending roster sooner. Outside of that the FO seems to be putting most, if not all, of their hopes on the farm system.

That's why the sooner the lineup includes all the team's best prospects, the better off they will be. Bichette's injury obviously hurts, as maybe he's a April 2020 ETA now instead of late 2019, but that shouldn't make too much difference. Turning Giles and hopefully Sanchez into young talent that will help in 2020-beyond while extending Stroman is probably the best course of action to take.

Bad contracts are part of the issue with the LAA, but a breakdown in the totality of their amateur talent acquisition avenues is a bigger problem.

Price: 24.0ip, 79era-, 5.2war650
Josh: 109pa, 127wrc+, 4.2war650
Edwin: 114pa, 137wrc+, 4.0war650
Cain: 116pa, 100wrc+, 3.9war650
Dexter: 85pa, 126wrc+, 3.1war650
Russ: 22pa, 191wrc+, 11.8war650
Tulo: 13pa, 119wrc+, 0.0war650
Jose: ---
Kendrys: 75pa, 60wrc+, -1.7war650

Whether his velocity is up or not, or whether he's healthy, it's hard to watch Sanchez pitch. A lot of walking around on the mound, fiddling with the ball, long pauses in the set position. I think he'd do himself a favor working quicker.

"In all sincerity, why are you worried if other people fuss? Isn't that their prerogative? Their fussing should have no effect on you."

I'm not worried at all just sad to see that people arent enjoying the moment as much as they possibly could, unless of course fussing and worrying about 7 years down the road is some how more enjoyable to some. If that's the case then all good though hard for me to relate to.

Thanks for thinking about other posters effects on me though, I do appreciate it though.

Nice play by Hernandez.

I wondered what it would feel like to type that.

You should include last year's stats as well, to show how awesome the 2018 team could have been.

How awesome were we in 2018 without them?

"Nice play by Hernandez.I wondered what it would feel like to type that."

Of the 29 LF'ers who've played 100 innings thus far, Teoscar is 2nd in DRS at +4 and 2nd in UZR/150 at +21.9. He is -1 on statcast, but that is just catching the ball. The FG stats also include arm; Teoscar's has been the best of all MLB LF'ers this season.

As awesome as we would ahve been with thyem - unless of course, you care to prove different.

Tampa likes to sign players to extensions, this is mostly just to get more return when they trade them, though.

Defensively, Guerrero made 3 plays in 2 games. It's a good thing this was our 2 best ground ball pitchers. So far, so good. Drury ran into an ump. I'm pretty sure this will never happen with Guerrero as the umps will stay clear to avoid being bowled over.

Offensively, Guerrero is hitting .250. Not bad. There will be both worst and better days.Drury and Grichuk were the hitting stars. That's all good.

Overall, Profar contributed more to the Jays victory than Guerrero did. That sounds pretty unlikely. Two very fun games to watch and just 1 game below .500.

Ben Revere is a Blue Jay again. Not sure I knew he was still a professional baseball player.

So is Drury actually showing some promise here?

Great pitching today. Hudson seems to have turned things around after a very poor start to the season. Gaviglio is looking like a terrific 2 to 4 inning guy, and Sanchez walked 4 but gave up no earned runs to lower his ERA to 2.32. He led the league in ERA in 2016, maybe he can take a run at that again.

Brandon Drury last 10 games: 0.324/0.390/0.676 with 7.3 BB%, 24.4 K%, .351 ISO% and 179 wRC+.

His xwOBA for the season is now moved up to tie Billy Mckinney, it will be interesting to see where he settles off.

It's great that Sanchez's finger is holding up.
However his control, or lack thereof is worrisome.
I don't see him anchoring a rotation and having both him and SRF on the same staff might be a bit much.

Today's starter, Chris Bassitt , was acquired in the same trade that sent one year of Samardzija, whom we just saw, to the White Sox for Phegley and Simiens. Yeah, that White Sox rebuild hasn't gone particularly well. Finding pitching seems to be the hardest thing.

Walks aren't much of a problem if you are unhittable in the zone.

Sanchez has 20 walks and 27 strikeouts.
It's the wrong kind of "unhittable" that gets all its outs on balls in play.
That's not going to work all the time.

AYJ, Sanchez's xwOBA is .380.  Plays like Teoscar's yesterday have been saving him.

Perhaps. Time will tell. Is wxOBA based on Statcast or batted ball profile.

"Sanchez has 20 walks and 27 strikeouts. 
It's the wrong kind of "unhittable" that gets all its outs on balls in play. 
That's not going to work all the time."

#There is nothing wrong with his K rate."

I never said he is pitching like an ace....just that walks don't hurt Sanchez lkke theybhurt others due to the difficulty is squaring hime up.

MG has suggested though that squaring up has been a problem that hasn't come home to roost yet.

One of the more overlooked aspect of the 2017/18 Jays is how often they played without Donaldson/Tulo/Travis and that really killed any chance to compete and why I agreed with the decision to move on - those are quality players but it doesn't matter if they are not going to be on the field.

Not sure how I got that superfluous hashtag and end-quote in there.

Obviously Stroman should be target #1 for an extension, but I'd put Sanchez #2.

There does not seem to be the pitching percolating through the system to achieve the 2021 contention goal. Pearson is a stud. Other than that, who? Borucki looked good, but as opposed to Sanchez, his multiple injury issues have been arm related. SRF's command issues are far worse than Sanchez. Thornton, Zeuch, Yennsy, Paulino, Perez all have issues and are far from sure things to be any more than back end or even remain as starters.

Now that the clock has started on Vlad's Gtd. service time (61/years and we all hope longer), I think the FO would like to be a contender for at least 5 of those years - prospects in the lower minors will benefit because I expect the club to be more aggressive in promotions to meet that timeline and to increase prospect trade value - and the next 2 FA periods I expect the FO to aim a little higher especially with perhaps an outfielder.

Gtd. service time (61/2 years)

As I’ve said all winter, if they don’t want to waste Vladdy’s cost controlled years they need to find some pitching not get rid of the little they have. Gaviglio has earned the 5th starter duty but he might be more useful in the pen as a tandem partner with Sanchez et al.

Sogard is on one of those runs where you just have to keep playing him until the pixie dust wears off.

With the end of April approaching the Jays have had a somewhat crazy start to the season.

1) Threatening to be "no hit" quite often in the first 11 games.

2) Our current record is 13-14. 1st 16 games 5-11. Next 11 games 8-3. So pretty good overall based on the first 16 games. +10 in Runs for and against.

3)V good hitting from Sogard, Urena, Galvis and Smoak to date. Every hit this season was crucial except in the 10-1 and 7-1 wins against Oakland. Tellez's hitting has not been good, I expect it to improve. However his hitting produced runs which helped us win. 16 rbi in 68 ABs is v good.

4) The pitching has been incredible. Gaviglio, Stroman, Sanchez, Giles and Shoemaker. Thornton was great in his first 2 starts and not so great in his next 3. Everyone else has been ok. Mayza, inconsistent. Tepera and SRF SSS.

5) Player movement and injuries have been very bad overall. A very big list of pitching injuries has not hurt us yet. The Shoemaker injury was very costly. Slow hitting starts have hurt us with Brito and Hanson being questionable additions. They are here to prove that they have a future with our team. Sogard has been great and so a good addition. Pillar leaving has not hurt much because the OF defense has been decent overall.

With Kinsler not working out, the contending Padres are looking for a stopgap 2B until Urias is ready and Sogard may be a nice fit as he can eventually be a quality backup MI - adding Sogard when the Jays ship Stroman to the Padres makes sense.

When do you reckon this will happen?

The trade partner I'd be looking at is the Braves. We have a better record than they do, mostly because they've been brutalized by their bullpen - only the Oriole bullpen has been worse. Giles would be a massive upgrade on what they have - and they better do something soon if they want to have any hope of catching the Phillies.

The Jays say they want to contend by 2021; not too sure what their definition of contend is. Is it win a World Series or just make the playoffs as a WC and see what happens? If the Jays want to contend for the WS, they need to resign Stroman and Sanchez; they don't have enough quality arms in the system. If the return for Stroman is Forrest Whitley and Kyle Turner, sure trade him. But if the return is a mid range Top 100 prospect then nah, I'd pass and sign them long term.

You're right about the Braves hypobole but I'm unsure about the dynamics of the relationship between the two Fo's.

Whatever the dynamic between the two, is their a better option available not called Kimbrel? There are better closers on contending teams, but contenders aren't going to trade them.

Travis d'Arnaud designated for assignment by the Mets. There's a career that didn't work out quite as expected.

I long ago stopped understanding any rhyme or reason to the success or failure of C prospects. Injuries are clearly a factor but that isn’t all.

I wonder how beer sales compare for a Stroman vs a Thorntoa start? Thornton gives you plenty of time to get them and certainly provides the need to get them. And I don't even drink anymore.

FO personnel have a hard time holding on to their jobs in most cases IMO. J Farrell and J Giradi lost theirs immediately after great success. But not good enough. We will see how Alex Cora does by the end of 2021. Beeston and AA lost their jobs. So losing will get you fired IMO.

If you are successful then you will be poached by a richer organization unless the owner is impossible to work with. LaCava Rejected Baltimore and AA.

I like these intellectual exercises. I believe all FOs are very intelligent. They hire V intelligent staff and make intelligent strategies. I think Shapiro is V smart from what I can see and also hired a lot of v intelligent staff. He inherited a successful team and correctly predicted that they would age fast and be expensive by checking their ages, injury history and committed contracts.

Revenues were v good in 2015 and 2016 due to winning. The 2017 and 2018 teams did not win. I don't know how much revenues suffered. I think good or at least acceptable financial results is crucial to keeping your job if the owners are a corporation. This year Shapiro deeply slashed "his" payroll commitment so that the bad financial results if they occur will be blamed on the previous management team. I believe this to be quite fair and intelligent.

So how does Shapiro lose is job? Since he works for a corporation and knows it he will prioritize finances. Payroll parameters. He still has to win (contend for the 2WC) and if successful may get poached but at least not lose his job.

If he has a boss that is very not smart or interferes not in a smart way then he should start looking for something better. I think Gillick did something like that. Jays examples: the V Wells contract. The Tulo trade.
The Phillies are crazy spending. Hank Steinbrenner does not want another WC game. His patience is wearing thin because NYY has not won significantly in a while. He will crack IMO. Maybe he is trying to live up to his father.

Rich clubs like NYY, Boston and LAD have to win or heads roll. They use money to achieve that. That is their edge. It has been working so far. Things will change if the final 4 are Cleveland & TB and the Pirates and Arizona for example. MLB owners will not like the poor teams with the small fan base being in the limelight.

No team can control injuries and certain players cannot be replaced. If Sale and Severino fail to pitch like they are counted on doing, their replacements have a big hole to fill. 3 bad years in a row for teams expected to win will result in heads rolling.

Nice game for Thornton. 5 IP, 102 pitches and only 1 ER.

I feel bad for Shulman having to listen to Buck's nonsense.

A few innings ago, Buck explained that due to the crowded infield in Buffalo that Espinal had to start in New Hampshire this year after finishing last season in Buffalo. That was wrong...he did not play in AAA last year.

Just now, Buck went on and on about how McKinney lost the ball in the lights. On the replay, it didn't look like he flinched at all, he just dropped it.

When your shortstop pinch-hits for your right fielder, maybe your right fielder shouldn't be your right fielder.

agreed! Also I was willing to let go pulling Vlad Jr in the game Friday but I don't get pinch running for him today... any day for that matter, unless he is injured.

and one other thing... flip Randal and Vlad Jr in the batter order for god sake. He needs to bat 3rd!

There, I am done managing.

The A's need to trade for Brandon Drury so he never hits against them again.

Serves Treinen right for walking Hanson.

That was a fun win.

Had 'em all the way.

I'd have kept d'Arnaud as a backup catcher. I would have also kept Thor.

If Drury can keep hitting like this against teams other than the A's, then that will be a great development. He's hitting the ball harder than he ever has so far, with a significant increase in barrel %, exit velocity, and hard hit %, plus his launch angle is higher than any other season in his career aside from the small sample in 2018. Obviously still has some holes with a high K% and low walk total, but you can see glimpses of why front offices (not just this one) like him so much.

The Vlad Era has started off being pretty fun so far.

That was a great game, except for a fraction of the 11th inning.
I must admit, I laughed when Elvis hit Chappie and I didn't stop laughing until the game was over.
Pinder looked shellshocked on the bench. 2B must be the whipping boy role on that team.
Ha well, go vent in Fenway A's. That usually works.

To tell the truth, I was a bit afraid of Oakland pulling their exhausted closer and Luciano/Mayza having to pitch the rest of the game. That could have been ugly.

The video reviewers in New York need to be shown, including full audio, when they are making their decisions. It can't be worse than what I'm picturing in my mind.

Buchholtz and Thornton have no wins yet, Elvis has one.

I missed Hernandez's defense  in left field. Imagine that.

Based on empirical evidence, now that Vladi is up, the Jays will never lose another game.

Jays blatantly manipulated Vladdy's service time.
When interviewed about it, he seemed somewhat oddly unfazed.
He reported this spring grossly overweight for a 20 yr old athlete. I remember thinking "There's some real passive aggressive sh*t going on here."

As far as the 2 PR removals, I don't think it's only about in-game tactics; in the game today especially. I think Montoyo is sending young Vlad a very clear and very pointed message.

"I remember thinking "There's some real passive aggressive sh*t going on here......As far as the 2 PR removals, I don't think it's only about in-game tactics; in the game today especially. I think Montoyo is sending young Vlad a very clear and very pointed message."

I would suggest you are thinking way too hard if that is actually the case.

"If Drury can keep hitting like this against teams other than the A's, then that will be a great development. He's hitting the ball harder than he ever has so far, with a significant increase in barrel %, exit velocity, and hard hit %, plus his launch angle is higher than any other season in his career aside from the small sample in 2018. Obviously still has some holes with a high K% and low walk total, but you can see glimpses of why front offices (not just this one) like him so much."

But, but...I thought Cashman always has to win trades...

I heard that a few fans left when the score was 4-1.

"I would suggest you are thinking way too hard if that is actually the case."

Hodgie, thinking hard is my forte.

"I feel bad for Shulman having to listen to Buck's nonsense."

Schulman isn't immune. Didn't he say when you look at players numbers, you look at HR's and RBI's?

Hypo and Hodgie

I was pondering the two PR pulls myself. For a fat guy Vlad actually runs pretty well - after all he's only 20. I was upset that he was pulled the first time because - he is only 20 - and by pulling a 20 year old in the 1st or 2nd game of his career you're telling him you are not a ball player - you're a bat. More seriously, you're telling him before he has failed at running the bases professionally that I'm not going to give you the chance to show us what you can do. I'm going to jump to the conclusion that you aren't a complete ball player.

Now, we all know that in 5 to 10 years that may be 100% true. But now? To my tortured psyche I thought that was a very stern message to send to a once in a generation potential serial batting champ.

When they pulled him today - I was ever so upset. I believe I momentarily lost control and said something like "piffle" or "dash it." I can be ever so rude when provoked!

Hodgie, however, while Hypo can no doubt think too hard on occasion - (after all who hasn't) - he might be on to something. IF (and only IF) Montoyo and his assembled fellow members of the Jay's Bosses have made it clear to Vlad that IF he wants to be a ballplayer, and not just a bat, he'll have to never come into camp out of shape like he did this year and to do shall result in consequences.

But even under those conditions I still think that was a bit too harsh of a public lashing for the Blue Jays to unleash on their first ever (god willin' an' the river don't rise) home grown Super Star.

Drury is probably an upgrade over what the A's are using at second base.

If the return for Stroman is Forrest Whitley and Kyle Turner, sure trade him. But if the return is a mid range Top 100 prospect then nah, I'd pass and sign them long term.

MLB pipeline has Nate Pearson at 72.

They'll have to drop someone for Saturday at the latest. I think they need to keep Pannone and Gaviglio in the pen. Maybe give Waguespack a start or two until Richard is ready. They should send Brito to AAA and if someone claim him, then so be it. They might not do that because they specifically traded for him but I'm guessing he clears waivers. Hanson is more useful. I would have thought be now Brito would have at least stolen a base as a pinch runner, but not even that. Man, I miss Pompey.

"But, but...I thought Cashman always has to win trades..."

What I wrote does not change anything I have said about the trade. I have always said Drury may have some upside if his launch angle swing adjustment can lead to more power, but I still didn't like the trade for the Jays. And believe me, if Drury turns into a star and subsequently makes Cashman look bad for trading him, I am certainly not going to complain about it.

Cool 1st ever in the Nat's win Sunday (with an Expo's reference):

Juan Soto, Victor Robles and new call-up Carter Kieboom each homered, the first time three players 21 and younger homered for the same team in one game. How crazy is that? The last team with three players 21 or younger to homer in the same season was the 1993 Expos with Wil Cordero, Cliff Floyd and Rondell White.

Cordero never took a step forward and just had a great year in 94. Rondell White was a speedy outfielder who produced throughout his entire career. Cliff Floyd didn't start hitting until he reached 24 in his 5th year.

An interesting example of the randomness of sports: yesterday's comeback win meant the Jays swept the season series against the A's 6-0. Last year the A's swept them 7-0.

"If the return for Stroman is Forrest Whitley and Kyle Turner, sure trade him. But if the return is a mid range Top 100 prospect then nah, I'd pass and sign them long term.

MLB pipeline has Nate Pearson at 72. "


The question is would the Jays do it for 2 top-100 players. Say Drew Waters and Bryce Wilson from the Braves or Patino and Ryan Weathers from the Padres. Those teams seem like the best fits because they have a ton of prospect depth and are looking to consolidate. Padres seem to be more aggressive team so might make more sense. They also have Josh Naylor who is blocked in SD long-term but is a very good prospect and is from Mississauga. (I'd want him as the #2 prospect in the deal though, not the headliner). The Jays should be seeing if Stroman will take a market price extension for a couple of years. If so, go for it. If he wants a longer extension or more money, they should trade him.

Those are pretty good examples of a return in my opinion that the Padres/Braves will do for Stroman. I'd rather hope Sanchez pitches well this year then trade him for that type of return. Stroman I would extend unless you can get that legit top 25 prospect or a lower prospect with huge huge huge upside like a Pearson. I don't think opposing teams will trade either type of prospect though.

Sanchez and Giles for 3-4 top bottom 50 top 100 types would be the best way to grow the team by trading away the most replaceable players (with significant trade value).

Very good post on Sogard. Thanks Mike G. You have to at least try on some fringe players that are hanging in there hoping to make an impression. Rance Mullinicks managed to do ok with Toronto. He developed late. We hit the jackpot with Devon White.

If we get Whitley from Houston that is fine with me depending on what we give up.

Whitley had a v good 2017. He pitched well moved 3 levels MWL to AA. 92.1 IP, probably on an innings limit because he was so young. Only 26.1 IP in 2018 in AA, but quite dominant. This year in AAA he has not dominated (inconsistent). He is also on the Pearson type of innings limit, maybe. He has had 2 bad games of his 4. The bad games were 1.1 IP (45) pitches and 3 IP (56 pitches).

HS pitchers D Gooden and B Saberhagen and college pitcher Stieb spent little to no time in the minors before getting promoted. Whitley has already had injury issues. So like Morrow and D McGowan may become a reliever. Both Morrow and McGowan have been injury prone relievers.

Maybe we do get him. Halladay had only 2 good seasons with the Phillies but they were fantastic. His shoulder spoiled his other 2 seasons there. Starting in 2021 Stroman could have 2 good seasons over the next 5. That is good value. Whitley is obviously a gamble.

How good at gambling is this Jay's FO? They have not made a single gamble to date. I don't count the drafts as gambles or the rule 5 protected players as gambles, but I know they are. FA and extension signings are gambles.

Swinging Strike Rate:

01 Sogard - 1.5%
02 Smoak - 7.4%
03 Maile - 8.4%
04 McKinney - 10.0%
05 Jansen - 10.5%
06 Drury - 13.9%
07 Galvis - 14.2%
08 Tellez - 14.2%
09 Hernandez -14.2%
10 Gurriel 14.3%
11 Grichuk - 15.5%
12 Urena - 16.0%
13 Hanson - 17.5%
14 Brito - 20.8%

Sogard at least puts the bat to the ball, which is something the majority of this team struggles with.

You probably won't see the power or overall production as some of the more free swingers, but he brings a different element to the team.

The 3 year ZiPS projections on Whitley are ERAs of 4.23, 4.08 and 4.00 with 62 innings each year.  Durability is a huge issue with him, and of course, there were the PEDs.  Nice K rates, of course, even if he is struggling so far this year.

A Rotographs piece on Rowdy references something mentioned here by a few posters. Our FO willing to accept warts in exchange for hard contact.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/is-rowdy-tellez-under-owned/

There are 6 teams with a higher SwStr rate than the Jays' 12.3%. The one that stands out from that group is Tampa Bay. Their 110 wRC+ is 9th in MLB despite having the 3rd highest SwStr rate at 12.7%. One big reason for their success is accomplishing what the Jays seem to be trying to do. They have the 3rd highest Hard Contact% and the lowest Soft Contact% in baseball.

Thomas hasn't been doing any crowing about being correct about Sogard (and I suspect that he never imagined this kind of performance), but it does deserve a bow!

That guy sounds like one smart cookie (even if he never imagined this kind of performance).

Mike, it possible that Sogard has (in a non-PED manner) developed significantly more power in his early 30s (he's always had some semblance of strike zone control) but it still feels like a stretch that he is the full time answer at 2B. However, between his defence and that he's LH and will take a BB, he may well be what this team needs right now. I'd think a platoon (not strictly LH/RH) with he and Drury at 2B (while the team decides what it has in Drury) and with Sogard playing the super utility role everywhere else on the diamond would be a useful plan until the trade deadline at least.

I would add that McKinney is the player (other than Drury) that I think the team needs to find out whether he has a role on this team or not. I'd like McKinney to get closer to full time ABs and leave the Hansen RF days to a minimum. I'm not convinced that McKinney is more than a 4th OF but I think the teams needs to sort that out as part of team building for 2020/21.

The idea that the Jays can get the top pitching prospect out of Houston is crazy. Besides Vladimir Guerrero Jr straight up or Bo Bichette and Nate Pearson as a package I don't think Houston would even listen.

Would you trade Bo Bichette if he had a higher ceiling than he does now and was head and shoulders above the rest of the prospect infielders in the game? Likely not.

It has been reported that Whitley is working on his off speed pitches and that if promoted now he would have the best stuff period on the Astros. Think about that for a second. According to Passan he is being "service-timed by the Astros this year." Verlander and Cole would fall behind Whitley in that rotation according to scouts.

one of the most promising things about Rowdy is how he cut his swinging strike rate down as he moved up levels:

Rk: 19.5%
Rk+: 17.8%
A: 16.9%
A+: 14.9%
AA: 7.8%
AAA: 9.6%

That's bumped back up to 14.2% so far in MLB, but I'm hoping to see him get that back down to 10% or lower like he managed to do in AA and AAA.

in general Rowdy has been a bit more aggressive so far in MLB than he was in the minors, and you can see that in both his lower walk rate and his higher K rate. If he can't improve on both of them I'm not sure he can be an effective mlb hitter. But, based on his milb track record, I'm pretty sure he can improve on both. He's already drawing significantly more walks than last year, though he's still K'ing too much.

I agree with you Ugly, what impressed me with Tellez through the minors was good plate discipline and 60 raw power. I really hope he starts to cut the strikeouts in the majors, but as is he still makes the 1B/DH middle tier.

Rance Mullinicks [sic] managed to do ok with Toronto. This is an understatement - he was a 3 WAR/650 player over the whole of his time in Toronto, which includes the whole of his decline phase. While he was a platoon player, he was a very good platoon player.

I wouldn't trade Bichette straight up for Whitley.  Not even close.  I'll buy that he has the potential to be a great pitcher, but comparisons with Justin Verlander are just silly.  Verlander has thrown 200 innings the last 3 seasons and many times in his career.  He's been awfully effective.  Whitley hasn't thrown 100 innings in a season yet, and his control has been so-so. 

Thanks GabrielSyme on the Mullinicks report. Quality ABs and many doubles I think.

Regarding Whitley, I agree that he is expected to dominate. He has pitched in 4 games this year with mixed results. Therefore I am being cautious. He is at AAA and only 21 years old for all of this year, that is very impressive. He does not need to be added to the 40 man roster for rule 5 protection until after the 2020 season. So lots of time to develop. He could/projected to be a #1.

I'll say this about this FO - imo there's not a pitching prospect in the world they'd trade a SS prospect with elite hitting upside for.

Rightly too of course.

Gary Huckaby of baseball prospectus used to always say there ain't no such thing as a pitching prospect to make the point how volatile and uncertain pitching prospects are. It wouldn't surprise me if position players 1-2 years from the majors are as projectable as pitchers who just finished their rookie year, let alone younger guys in the minors!

I did a study on length of career for our (good?) pitching prospects.

Many had a long career. The best was D Wells I think.

Short careers as SPs for Romero, Litsch, Cecil, Zep and the list continues.

Stroman looks like he may have a longish career. 8-10 years being long. Don't know about Sanchez.

Just looked at 3 Washington SPs. All good. But P Corbin 2 seasons with 200+ IP, Strasburg just 1. Scherzer many 200+ IPs. So any could be equal to an elite SS. Machado, Jeter, Tulo.

A good player is a good player. I did not check anyones minor league stats to see how impressive these SS and Ps were or how fast they got to the show. Or if they were HS or college picks.

I also don't know how the scouts valued these players.

I would be content with any good player.

A couple of the Jays' former pitching prospects that the team traded away are really having breakout seasons. Matt Boyd, part of the Price trade, has an ERA of 3.13, FIP of 2.22, WHIP of 1.018, and has allowed only 28 hits and 10 walks in 37 innings, with 48 strikeouts. Boyd has changed his pitch selection this year, relying on his 4-seamer and slider, along with the curve, pretty much scrapping his 2-seamer and changeup. Joe Musgrove, part of the trade for J.A. Happ from Houston, has an ERA of 2.06, FIP of 2.51, WHIP of 0.91, and has allowed only 25 hits and 7 walks in 35 innings, with 31 strikeouts. Looking like a couple of top of the rotation guys, unlike Noah Syndergaard, who has been struggling this year with the Mets. He's allowed 27 hits and 8 walks in his last 15 innings.

If I take Cueto, for example, he had 6 seasons of 30 starts or more from age 22 to age 29.
Marcus had 2 seasons of 30 starts from age 23 to age 27.
From age 29 to 31 Cueto had 2 seasons of 30 starts.
The odds of Stroman being healthy will slowly drop.
They can extend him any time and they know the QO will be an option, as the CBA will still be in place.

I think it all depends on the other GMs. If someone really want to trade for him and pay their price, they'll let him go, but it won't be cheap.

Norris was supposed to be the big piece. Boyd seemed too hittable back then.

I always liked Boyd and said so at the time of the Price trade, but I was definitely in the minority. It's harder to predict with pitchers.

there ain't no such thing as a pitching prospect to make the point how volatile and uncertain pitching prospects are.“

Yup. All the more reason to sign Stroman.

I was at the game when Boyd made his 2nd big league start. The 1st inning went like this - single, single, single, home run, home run, single, wild pitch, walk and Boyd was removed without getting anybody out. I guess that kind of coloured my view of him. The next 3 seasons didn't do much to change my view, but he has taken a huge leap forward this year.

Boyd's underline numbers aren't too impressive for sustainability, unlike Thor who still has elite based numbers under the hood and a terrible defence behind him.

I just don't agree on the consensus top pitching prospect not being worth someone like Bichette and the scouts back that up.

There's a big gap between Whitley and guys like Mize and Pearson. He's passed the point of being a question mark.

I watched part of the Boston game. Not good baseball.
The Sox scored 6 unearned runs after Profar missed first base on a double play.
With the bases loaded Khrush kept swinging at sliders 4 feet off the plate.
Semien got picked off at first with no outs. Left on first move with the lefty staring at him.
Neither starter lasted 5 innings.

Those are supposed to be 2 playoff team.

Just for fun... AL East OPS+ ERA+ by team... Worst team to best...

Baltimore: 87, 76
Boston: 86, 90
Jays: 84, 135
Yanks: 110, 118
Rays: 110, 149 (!!)

Rays have had 6 guys start and the worst ERA+ among them is 123, the rest are over 150.

Funny, the AL East is traditionally a sluggers division but this year it is pitching for the best teams.

"There's a big gap between Whitley and guys like Mize and Pearson. He's passed the point of being a question mark."

Mize might be a better prospect than Whitley and both are well ahead of Pearson right now. I would almost never trade a hitting prospect for a pitching prospect.

Mize pitched a NO Hitter in his AA debut last night. 9 innings and 98 pitches.

I like Detroit. Looks like a V good pick so far.

Yeah well the year Mize is having so far is changing things. If he does this longer it will be 1 and 1A between him and Forest although I think Forest did it at a younger age.

Pearson might be behind some other pitching prospects because he lacks track record, but with his raw stuff and dominance so far he could catch any of them by the end of the year.

If Pearson comes close to catching Whitley or Mize this year then you may as well plan on contending for deep playoffs starting next year.

Pearson
Stroman
Sanchez
That's a fine front three along with Giles, Vlad, Bo and the rest.

Anyone remember original Blue Jay Dave McKay? Lasted 8 yrs in the majors despite his 63 OPS+ career line (56 OPS+ in his 3 years with the Jays).

2 years after retiring, he became a 1st base coach and 35 yrs later (with a 1 yr hiatus) he's still a 1st base coach.

The Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/943516/2019/04/26/forevers-first-base-coach-the-remarkable-longevity-of-dave-mckay/

We should find out this year if Thornton can be a decent 6,7,8 inning pitcher.

Pannone and Gaviglio seem to be developing into good enough 3/4 Inning pitchers.

All 3 have this year to make that possible. If successful there is probably a good way to use 3-5 inning pitchers effectively.

For 1 inning the pitcher uses max effort and his FB is faster. For 3 innings he would do it differently.

I enjoyed reading that Dave McKay article on the weekend. The first Canadian Jay!

Ken Rosenthal has reported that he has been told by a reliable source that Smoak, Stroman and Sanchez will all be traded before the AS break. This Rosenthal report was referred to on the Blair show this morning. Blair added that Rosenthal's source is a good one but did not elaborate.

Peter G That is WOW news. Very serious stuff. An early start to shopping them is a good idea I suppose.

Stroman and Sanchez have done a good job of carrying this team so far this year. Especially Stroman.

They could be contending or sort of in it still when/if these trades happen.

I really wonder how this stuff can leak if it is legit and not hot air.

not really wow news. it's expected.

this FO is still clearing house and tearing down.

Rosenthal is about as good a souce as there is. I have now heard the actual clip. He said it last night on MLB network.

Although I am a supporter of Anthopoulos as a GM, the recent success of Musgrove and Boyd calls into question the view that, with the exception of Thor, AA did not trade any prospects of real value. On the other hand, their success is another illustration of just how deep a talent pool AA amassed while he was in Toronto.

Boyd is a good reminder that LHP can take some extra time to come into their own.

boyd is interesting if the surge in K% is real, but musgrove looks a bit lucky this year.

but remember, these guys aren't kids. they're the same age as stroman and sanchez, with only a year or two of extra control.

Paul Quantrill's son is getting promoted to the show. Let's hope father and son don't celebrate by "tobaggoning".

perhaps Quantrill is being showcased for the Jays. SD is still most likely destination for Stroman.

So what happens to Stroman / Sanchez / Smoak in terms of motivation, if they already know they're getting traded 3 months from now and it's just a matter of when?
Do they end up pulling a Happ, whether consciously (trying too hard) or subconsciously, and then we end up getting peanuts back? Again?
Just when the team was fun for a few games, we already find out it won't last - BY DESIGN.. Atkins is starting to remind me of the Grinch..

Nothing wrong with trading Stroman for a Glasnow and an Austin Meadows.

Like with any contemplated trade, it depends on what you can get. I heard somebody yesterday saying that he feels the Jays would be wasting most of Vladdy's 7 season window if they trade Stroman and Sanchez. Said it would be unlikely they could rebuild a starting staff from scratch in the next few years, given the lack of top level starting prospects in the minors.

I'd much rather resign Stroman and Sanchez if they can't get top level prospects for them. Their performance so far certainly increases the asking price a great deal compared to what they could have gotten in the offseason.

I'm still a little confused by the argument that we can "rebuild the rotation quickly" if we trade Sanchez and Stroman for prospects. If the "top prospects" are that good, why wouldn't the other team hang onto them, or trade them for even better starting pitchers? Except for the very limited "we need pitching *THIS* year and are willing to pay top dollar" - the David Price model.

I don't think Sanchez/Stroman are good enough / dependable enough to get a huge haul - would you give up Bichette or Biggio for Sanchez, with his history? Or Stroman? And if we're trading them, just to *HOPE* we end up with similar arms in 2 years, does that make sense? Neither one of them are "old". Arguably, they are both entering their prime right now.

Given how the pitchers have done that we've traded away - one stud, several duds, a couple that turned out good / ok after 3-4 years, what are the odds that in 2 years we get better than Sanchez/Stroman? I would say less than 50/50? And even if in 4 years (mid-2023) we have 2 better pitchers (takes a couple of years to get used to MLB, adjust to hitters adjusting, re-adjust, etc), that's nearly all of Vladdy's time gone - he'll be at 4.5 years.

Of course, Sanchez/Stroman could both tear a rotator cuff / blow out their elbow next week, and be done for good..

And of course, it could also be that Sanchez and Stroman both want way more $$ than they are worth, in which case trading them is the only thing that makes sense.

You covered your points very well vw_fan17. Very well said and explained.

I think people are hoping for something from this FO that they're never going to get - i.e. a focus on "maximising a window for winning" kind of approach.

I've said it before but I'll say it again - these guys are stock traders above all, always laser focussed on buying low and selling high, maximizing surplus value, and building ever more depth and depth and more depth.

Their belief is that winning championships is largely a product of luck, and that the best strategy is to give yourself more lottery tickets than everyone else.

They may be right, may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure they will let every free agent go - including vladdy eventually - unless they can sign them to a contract that gives them a good chance at getting significant surplus value out of it....and it'll have nothing to do with vladdy's window of contention.

There have to be at least 5 teams that would trade for a year and a half of Sanchez or Stroman. Both are affordable payroll wise.

A medium payroll team like the Brewers would improve for their window. The Twins could stay lucky and take advantage of their great start. LAA have to give Trout something for the rest of his career. 10 years. Phillies want to get it going and will spend to do that. Houston are making the most of this window.

"I've said it before but I'll say it again - these guys are stock traders above all, always laser focussed on buying low and selling high, maximizing surplus value, and building ever more depth and depth and more depth."

I like the sound of that!

Stroman could be the best pitcher available at the deadline.
Happ was that last year and didn't bring back a ton, but Stroman has an other year and a possible QO.
And a better reputation.
So it should look more like the Dickie trade than the Price trade.

Smoak probably needs to go to open playing time for Biggio.
It's not that Biggio takes over at first, but you need a rotating DH to give everyone enough ABs.
It's not going to be easy to find a taker, so he should be offered to the next team who needs a first baseman.

Sanchez has a bad health record and does not make it look easy even when he's healthy.
They'll have to find a starter in the system who can slide into the rotation.
It's pretty slim picking right now.

Magpie - I'm with you 100% on Smoak and Sanchez; I'm with Mike on Stroman. If he were over 30 or the Jays had more pitching prospects in the high minors, I might think Stroman was expendable. Outside of the obvious (Valddy and Jansen), I can't actually think of anyone on the 25 man roster more valuable to the team over the next 3-4 years than Stroman.

“ He's a better version of a young Kevin Brown. “

No he isn’t. Brown was an ace but of a different era where is Ks were less important. For example, last year, of the top 10 pitchers in FWAR, all 10 had at least 9 k/9. in 1992, when Brown was a top pitcher, only one starter in the top 30 pitchers hit that mark. Brown had 7 season of at least 6 WAR. When Brown was 27, he has a FWAR of 6.3. Stroman has never been remotely close to that. Stroman is a very good pitcher but he’s not an ace. He’s around a 3.50-.4.00 ERA guy. Very valuable but not Kevin Brown.

I agree Glevin. I would say that Stroman doesn't have to be Kevin Brown to be almost indispensable to the Jays over the next 2-4 years. Even if we can only agree that Stroman is merely "above average", how, exactly would the Jays replace his annual 180+ above average innings? Between injury and poor performance Borucki and everyone at AA, other than maybe Murphy, and AAA look like poor bets right now.

"Although I am a supporter of Anthopoulos as a GM, the recent success of Musgrove and Boyd calls into question the view that, with the exception of Thor, AA did not trade any prospects of real value."

Sometimes I wonder if, with a different approach, the Jays could have had more sustained success these past years. More similar to the Astros or the Cubs. Is that madness talking?

Galvis returns to the lineup. Drury is on right field and Billy McKinney sits seven though there is a RHP on the mound. Hot hands playing!

He's a better version of a young Kevin Brown.

Kevin Brown is indeed a pretty good comp for Stroman, but I'd say Stroman is a not-quite-as-good version. Stroman is stingy with the home run. Brown was much stingier. Stroman doesn't walk people (although his walk rates have been rising these last few years). Anyway, Brown walked even fewer. Stroman strikes out fewer hitters than the average AL pitcher. Brown didn't figure out how to strike out hitters until he was 27, but he was generally above the league average from that point on.

Since 2014, when Stroman first played in the majors, there have been just 15 pitchers in the american league that have at least 500 IP, at least 60% of their games as starters, and have an ERA+ above Stroman's 112 career.

If you choose selective endpoints to favor Stroman and do since 2015 (ignoring his league average rookie year) then Stroman puts up a 114 ERA+ and there are only 13 better than that with at least 400 IP, 60% games starters in the AL. Moreover, the 4 right above are basically tied with him with 115 ERA+ (Tanaka, Happ, Paxton, Quintana).

This makes Stroman basically the borderline between a #1 and #2 pitcher in the AL (I.e., there are 15 teams, the top 15 pitchers are #1).

The NL is maybe slightly deeper than the AL, but would only add another 15-18 pitchers to this timeline, which again still leaves Stroman at that border between a #1 and #2.

If instead of ERA+ (a rate stat), you want to use WAR, the same thing occurs. Stroman's 11.6 WAR since 2014 ranks 14th in the AL, and would be 16th in NL (tied with Syndergaard), so again right around that border between #1/#2.

You can argue are people aces or good or valuable or what not, but the point is Stroman has really been very good (for that matter, so was Happ), and people shouldn't discount the value Stroman has (to the Jays now or in extension or as a possible trade target from some other team).

And Stroman has upside above this, despite his age and track record, since his best complete year was 2017 and he put up 5.3 WAR, he was injured in 2018 so not much to go on, but in 2019 he's already booked 1.5 WAR so far this year. So his 11.6 in ~5.2 years is a little over 2 WAR a year pace, and that is good enough to be top 15 in AL or top 30 in MLB over a 5-6 year period, but his true talent/peak if healthy may well be in that 5+ WAR level (I.e., top 5 in baseball if that is your sustained level), that's what he was in 2017 and is what he's playing like so far in the SSS 2019.

HDMH.

Last item about Brown and Stroman.  I promise.  ERA+ was kind to Brown- every year he would give up at least 10 unearned runs, and it was 18 in his big year.  Stroman gives up plenty of unearned runs but quite a few less.

Stroman definitely above the rest. If he gets Archer style return, bye bye. If not then resign him.

I've been saying all season...which team will trade an ace pitching prospect? No one.

And if a team trades an ace prospect it will be for Bichette + not Stroman.

We should probably be discussing Sanchez for Quantrill straight up type trades or Stroman for multiple B prospects as that seems more likely.

There is the old rule, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Sometimes the best guys can look like scrubs until the last minute. Pedro Martinez was traded for Delino DeShields for example because his team (Dodgers) thought he was a reliever. Juan Guzman likewise traded by the Dodgers for Mike Sharperson (another 2B) as he was super-wild in the low minors, before reaching the Jays in 91 his best BB/9 was 4.6 - in 7 years in the minors that was the only one sub 5 for BB/9. He won an ERA title and was sub 3 for ERA 3 times during the steroid era. Jimmy Key nearly didn't make the team in 1984 but another guy screwing up at the last second gave him a shot in the pen. The next year he was an All-Star, in 1987 he was 2nd for Cy Young.

Pitchers can shift fast. Best idea is to stock up in good arms and see what happens. That was AA's theory and I agree with it.

I agree that Stroman has had good seasons. I think we will always have to analyse and calculate that he plays in the AL East and has to face NYY and Boston more than any other pitchers. Same deal for TB and Baltimore pitchers.

Maybe also count in pitching to a DH instead of a pitcher. The numbers/valuations have to change.

looked for some comps for Stroman. decided to look at all of era-, fip-, xfip-. since xfip only goes back to 2002, these comps are only from 2002 on. They are for stats accumulated as a starting pitcher only, from ages to 23 to 28.

5 closest comps I could find:

Stroman 108gs, 6.1ip/gs, 92era-, 86fip-, 83xfip-, 3.4awar32
Archer 160gs, 6.0ip/gs, 91era-, 86fip-, 84xfip-, 3.2awar32
Scherzer 165gs, 6.1ip/gs, 88era-, 84fip-, 85xfip-, 3.7awar32
Carrasco 79gs, 6.0ip/gs, 102era-, 84fip-, 80xfip-, 3.4awar32
Corbin 137gs, 5.9ip/gs, 92era-, 88fip-, 86xfip-, 3.1awar32
Cobb 86gs, 6.1ip/gs, 89era-, 90fip-, 86xfip-, 3.1awar32

UO your stock traders analogy was perfect. Really nice!!

But lets not sell short on Atkins. Humor!!

Both you and Atkins have a keen eye for talent that seems to look unappealing. Many Bauxites also see that level of talent. Many are noticing these players short comings that are works in progress.

I admire Atkins for his diligence in acquiring this type of player. He has stated that he feels strongly that we will not compete this year. His player movements very strongly support this. I think he will do better and find at least 1 more player that will have the largest short comings of all the others.

Of course I cannot read the future!! Trading Smoak, Sanchez and Stroman will make this team much weaker this year. There are 6 teams looking good, but very early in the year, which includes Seattle. I expect Seattle to crash because they do that very often. Taking out the 1st 16 games this year would give us a very good record. Probably a short lived pattern.

Vlad is already here and the injured are starting to recover slowly.

In all honest bpoz it's not meant as a good or a bad thing, it just is what it is.

For many people, including many very smart front offices, it's definitely a good thing.

We are getting prospects from all over. Willy Ortiz played last night and did well. Signed as a 6 year minor league FA. We lost Angel Perdomo this off season as a 6 year minor league FA. Most likely neither makes it, unless they do a Carlos Ramirez or Jose Fernandez and get a few ML games in.