Getting to .500 is the 1st step.

Rowdy makes my heart sing.

What an at bat. Off a tough lefty no less.

Yes, I try to view things through the SSS lens but Tellez has had three games in a row of some of the best LH ABs I’ve seen in a while.

Gotta love Tellez. Only 30th rounder to make the majors so far from the 2013 draft. He already is the highest WAR for an 895th pick ever, only 3 have made the majors - 73 games total for the other 2 who were pitchers. Most WAR for any 30th round pick by the Jays - the other 2 were Steve Wapnick (pitcher, 10 games) and Brandon Duckworth (didn't sign, 134 games as a pitcher). Kevin Pillar was a 32nd round pick, Orlando Hudson 33rd (DNS) and 43rd round, Danny Barnes 35th, Jim Abbott 36th (didn't sign), Scott Erickson 44th (DNS). Gives you an idea that it is very hard to get a quality guy that late in a draft, but it does happen although often they don't sign.

If you wait until the 62nd round, you can sometimes find a HoF catcher.

Tellez is unusual as he was a late pick but still got a decent bonus.

That game had ups and downs.

Rowdy was unusual in that he actually signed. Really good HS kids with strong college commitments often don't get picked till the late rounds if chances of them signing are slim.

Jays took Kris Bryant in the 18th round in 2010 and Aaron Nola in the 22nd round in 2011. They were both much more highly regarded but most teams didn't want to waste a draft pick.

Tellez and Pillar represent contrasting types of late round picks. Pillar was picked that late because he was a walk-on without a strong track record. Teams tend to view players picked that late as simply organizational players. The fact he carved out a major league career is a triumph of scouting, talent, perseverance and effort.

Tellez would have been picked much higher if baseball had a slotting system throughout the draft. He was seen as having a strong college commitment and bonus demands to forego college that didn't match his potential. Toronto took a gamble and, to everyone's benefit, was able to work out a deal with Tellez. Comparing Tellez to other 30th round picks in that draft isn't really a useful exercise, in my opinion, since most of those draft picks were seen as organizational players. Tellez also isn't really comparable to some of the Jays other late-round picks, like Hudson and Barnes, since those two both were seen as organizational players and turned themselves into major leaguers.

I have always found the draft exciting.

Since the draft budget came in I have enjoyed the strategy involved like punting picks to save money for the bigger bonus requirements.

Richardi's drafts were a disappointment. He and his people were just a weak drafting group. That is disappointing. But to stop drafting after the 30th round in 2007 was just plain " won't say it".

Kris Bryant says that he was not even offered a contract. If true my theory is that signing Dickie Joe Thon was the preference in that "we can only afford one of them". That year there was no official draft budget, but of course an internal one.

Many people say that you should always prefer the short stop because you can always go down to 2B,3B, OF and 1B/DH. I accept that no problem. But the hit tools are just maybe more important, hit for Avg and BB/K rates.

Thon stalled because of injuries I believe. Bryant dominated the minors and is doing well in the majors.

Yeah the incredible raw power is nice to see, considering it wasn't always on display in milb games.

That flick off the wall for a double, and then that screaming liner homer deep to almost straightaway center with what sure looked like a shortened 2 strike swing.

It was Rowdy's 8th career professional home run against an LHP and it came after an 0-2 count and after fouling a ball off his toe. I hope Montoyo keeps letting him try to prove himself against lefties -- his splits are not promising, but I'd like to see him out there as an everyday player this season regardless of who the opposing starter is.

I hope Montoyo keeps letting him try to prove himself against lefties

He's in the lineup today. Earlier we'd have seen Maile catching, Jansen DHing, Smoak at 1B, Tellez on the bench.

Sogard is starting as well, though that may be because Hanson is being asked to play RF. It'll be nice when that comes to an end.

Well, Tellez is up to a 135 OPS+ 259/333/552 line. He is what we all hoped he'd be - a power hitting 1B/DH who should be here for 6 years +. The Jays had a great set at 1B, from Upshaw, to Fielder/McGriff (same time), to Olerud, to Delgado. Then a dark period where Overbay, Lind, Encarnacion, Smoak were the main guys, with only Lind homegrown. Hopefully Tellez starts a new wave of greatness at 1B (well, probably DH) with Biggio at 1B as well starting later this year. The two of them should give a big boost to the heart of the order along with VGJ. We could be starting a new era of offensive greatness - just hope they can find 5 starters who can stay healthy to support them.

So sub 25's....
CA: Jansen: 179/270/232 39 OPS+ - needs to use the proper end of the bat
RF: McKinney: 247/300/370 81 OPS+ - showing hope, but not enough yet
DH: Tellez: 259/333/552 135 OPS+ - yay

Not regulars yet...
SS: Urena: 345/367/448 121 OPS+ - to be honest, I expect half of that (OPS+ in the 60's)
LF: Alford: 000/000/000 -100 OPS+ - sigh... 154/214/327 in AAA over 56 PA. Ouch.

RP: Elvis Luciano: 5.19 ERA 88 ERA+ 5.89 FIP, 8.3 BB/9 8.3 K/9 - some hope, but needs to find the stikezone. I think he will stick all year.
SP: SRF: 13.5 ERA 2 IP 4 H 2 BB 3 SO - ouch. 13.94 ERA in AAA over 10 1/3 IP so far. Yikes.

In Buffalo we have 3 with OPS over 1000 in VGJ, Gurriel (25 this year), and Biggio. Urena was in the 900's, Fields (28) and Sogard (33) in the 800's, Burns & Bo in the 700's.

So once Vlad, Gurriel, and (eventually) Biggio come up Buffalo will be a very sad place indeed.

Last game before Vladdy (LGBV)

He's coming.

I guess I am going to stay home Friday night to watch a ballgame.

What do we have to talk about now?

Can Vladdy take Biggio as his carry on?

What do we have to talk about now?

Raptors!

We can talk about this FO not calling him up after the Tuesday leak just to show everyone they're the boss, maybe?

Words You Never Thought to Hear Again:

Chris Davis is hot. (Hitting .360/.385/.720 with 2 HR, 8 RBI in his last 8 games.)

Can any or all of Brito, Hansen and Drury he returned to sender? For free?

We talk about where Guerrero hit in the order. I think Charlie will start him 7th or something like that.
Maybe we talk about Biggio who is 24 and seems ready.

Meanwhile Travis Bergen, who had never been in Toronto before, did not pitch because Bochy didn't trust him with a 4-0 lead.

The guys he used went 9-up, 9-down. I think Bochy did just fine.

James, I didn't read Scott's comment as criticism of Bochy, more a commentary on the Bergen love that was so prevalent a short time ago.

Bochy used one of his best relievers, Gott, in the 9th for a 2nd inning. It certainly seemed because he didn't trust Bergen, who was warmed up, with the 4 run lead.

I wonder if Gott is related to Jim Gott who pitched with the Jays in the early eighties if I remember right.

I like Bergen but it was a bit over-the-top.

This type of thing has always been the hallmark of baseball sites. Probably sports sites in general. Chalk it up to human nature.

Rueing the one that got away is just something we are programmed to do, even if it does go overboard.

And how many campaigns to "free" players have there been? Perhaps those old enough remember the Jon Nunnally obsession back in the day, when Usenet was king. And Jeremy Giambi, and... many who I can't recall. Even Matt Hague was an obsession for one poster in these parts in recent years.

the falling in love with old AAA relievers is always one of the weaker spots for fans I think.

the disconnect in this case is that our FO has gone out and picked so many of these types that it's funny when they give away our own guys with similar bios.

I'm guilty of it myself, Chuck.  I signed on to the FREE TRAVIS SNIDER campaign (which was fun even if the Specials didn't write a cool song about it). 

With Bergen (sorry to keep harping on it), the Jays took a calculated risk. By leaving him unprotected, 3 things can happen. Teams pass, gets picked and returned (Romano), or picked and lost. Teams like Cinci or Texas passed on Bergen, because he'd get lit up in their tiny ballparks. SF was the most obvious worry but middle relief was pretty well the least of their needs.

As to why he and others were left unprotected - all the others are still in the Jays system without having to use a 40 man spot for them. That has value.

I'm guilty of it myself, Chuck.

Sure, who isn't? We are all a mass of biases and contradictions, trying to pretend we're not.

but was Free Travis Snider really even wrong?

so he busted. it happens. but he was still better than the likes of Lewis, Mencherson, the corps of Shannon Stewart, etc. in those early years.

"the corps of Shannon Stewart"

Dewey isn't going to like that...

referring to the little known but valiant canadian marine division in the Iraq War, of course.

It’s a good thing Bergen has accumulated six innings in the majors, allowing us to clearly see how the rest of his career will unfold.

Wasn't someone anointing him as a potential closer before 6 innings?

Nope.

Vladdy Career MILB

Age: 17-20
Lvl: Rk-AAA

1261pa, 8.0bb%, 8.0k%, .316babip, .331avg, .244iso, 163wrc+



Absolutely incredible. A picture perfect elite hitting line with no weak spots. Gonna try to lay out some comps over the next while. Feel free to suggest some guys to compare him to (the more recent, the easier).

Mike Trout

Age 17-20
Lvl Rk-AAA

1312pa, 11.5bb%, 16.1k%, .402babip, .342avg, .174iso, 154wrc+


Trout struck out twice as much, with much less power, and needed way more babip to post an inferior overall line.

I never understood why losing Bergen was such a big deal to some people. He is a 25 year old minor league reliever who throws 90 mph and has practically no track record. Even if he turned into a good middle reliever, who cares? These types are so replaceable, and this FO has shown a pretty solid ability to find cheap relievers in other ways (free agency, waivers, Rule 5, etc).

If Dwight Smith Jr's offensive improvement is legit, then he is someone who the team may have undervalued (still not sold on him but he's been good so far). I just can't find any reason to care about losing Bergen, though.

Many months ago I posed the question whether there has ever been a player who has hit as well as VGJ did in the minors, at a comparably young age. I would love to know the answer to that question. My impression is that some of the Jays beat writers occasionally find ideas for articles from this site; maybe someone will pick up on this one.

In 200+ PA, Smith Jr. has been a significantly better hitter (.358 wOBA) in the majors than Teoscar has in 800+ PA (.326 wOBA). No consensus yet on the defensive projections for each player.

At the time of the Astros trade, I thought Teoscar was potentially a steal of an acquisition for the Jays. Now it’s unclear which of he or DSJ will turn out to be the better player.

Acuna Jr.

Age 17-20
Lvl Rk-AAA

1129pa, 8.9bb%, 21.3k%, .368babip, .301avg, .167iso, 142wrc+

Amazing in his own right, but way more Ks, much higher babip, and way less power.

Wander Franco might turn out to be VGJ’s main competitor for title of
best young minors hitter.

G.Stanton

Age 17-20
Lvl Rk-AA

1394pa, 11.8bb%, 26.6k%, .320babip, .274avg, .295iso, 156wrc+

Slightly more power but way more strikeouts, and much less average. Also left before hitting AAA.

yeah Franco is on a vladdy track so far for sure.

With all the hype surrounding Vlad's promotion, a poster at BBB found this question from Sickels on a pair of much hyped prospects entering the majors. Sounds ridiculous now, but it actually had people debating for both sides.

"If you could have Brett Lawrie or Mike Trout for the rest of his career, who would you pick and why?"

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/9/13/2423308/can-god-create-a-prospect-he-cant-get-out-brett-lawrie-vs-mike-trout

"Wander Franco might turn out to be VGJ’s main competitor for title of
best young minors hitter."

Did some reading about Wander and discovered that both his dad and his brother are also named Wander. 3 Wander Francos in the same household.

3 Wander Francos in the same household.

Could be zanier. George Foreman has 5 sons named George. And what about the Cuban Mesa brothers, Victor and Victor Victor?

LOL wow. Didnt know that.

Zach Hyman played through the playoff series with a torn ACL.  More fodder for the compare and contrast baseball to hockey discussions...

Zack Hyman only produced a single point (1G) and was -3 in the playoffs. I think he was reckless and didn't actually help his team.

The FO gets dumped on for picking up DFA's. No FO is complemented by their fanbase for picking up DFA's, but they all do it.

There's a player who was picked up on waivers from Cinci, who had picked him off waivers from Atlanta, who picked him off waivers from the O's. He's 28 and started this season with negative WAR. He's over 1.1 WAR already this year. Leads MLB in hard contact% and sits 12th in exit velocity. There will be regression, but even if he ends up with a Smoak-ish 2 - 2.5 WAR, that's a pretty nice outcome for a waiver claim. FWIW AA's waiver claim of Smoak (and the present FO's extension), both derided by many experts here, turned out pretty well.

Not only am I in favour of waiver claims on DFA's, I'd like the FO to do it more often.

So, anyone going down because of the Guerrero move?
They don't need another pitcher until May 4th, but they probably have too many infielders now.

"3 Wander Francos in the same household"

It's actually closer to the Foreman household than that. There are 4 Wander Francos in the same household. The good one, Wander Samuel Franco, the Rays' prospect, has 2 brothers who play baseball, both named Wander. Wander Javier Franco and Wander Alexander Franco are both in the Giants' organization. Interestingly, neither of them is any good.

Come on hypo; stay focussed. It’s “compliment” not “complement”. Two different words.

Gotta fend off brain-cramps. (Like ugly and his “corps” for “corpse”. And then his Trumpian weasely 'explanation'. You don't want to go there.)

I really hope Allan Hanson will will get the DFA treatment to make room on the 25 man.

Dewey, I used the full complement of my focusses merely to type the post. I did not have a focus left to proof-read.

"It's actually closer to the Foreman household than that. There are 4 Wander Francos in the same household. The good one, Wander Samuel Franco, the Rays' prospect, has 2 brothers who play baseball, both named Wander. Wander Javier Franco and Wander Alexander Franco are both in the Giants' organization. Interestingly, neither of them is any good."

In the Foreman household all 5 Georges also have the same middle name, Edward.

The FAMOUS Shannon Stewart Marine Corps, Dewey!

Read your history!

No Teoscars at the keyboard, Bauxites!

I’ve said it before, ugly -- you are an evil, evil man. Shameless, too, it seems. Tell us about the history of this FAMOUS Shannon Stewart, with the Canadian connections and all. My quest for his history has so far drawn blanks. (So is that fake news or just an alternate fact?)

Where is Parker when we need him anyway?

From their Wikipedia page...
"..while renowned for their speed on the battlefield the Shannon Stewart Marine Corps were seriously lacking in the armaments department"

Ah, Dewey, let me regale you with tales of the legendary "Pop Gun Brigade", a unit famous for its lethal speed and underrated power leading to many a famous victory, yet whose overrated defense led to some ignominious defeats...

ha budgell you beat me to it...

Foreman/Franco...

Worst of all, there are 2 Rougned Odors. (Punchy Rougned is 4 years older than his brother Rougned.)

Most likely move to accomodate Vlad is Galvis to IL. If not that, then Hanson DFA. No 40 man move needed but there will be room when Shoemaker placed on 60 and possibly Hanson DFA.

And then his Trumpian weasely 'explanation'

Hey, now that’s just mean!

MBJGA!!

I am excited for Vlad but the hype is off the charts. One player won't take this team into the playoffs.

Gerry, Vlad's promotion really highlights (to me at least) the difference between this site and other Jays' sites. In contrast to the hype generated elsewhere, the lack of over-the-top excitement here is almost palpable.

The curse of pragmatism.

The thing is, if you think that this team is a realistic playoff squad (i don't), then keeping vladdy down this long may have already cost us a spot.

And if you do believe they can make it, then it's gotta annoy you to see brito/drury/teoscar/hanson trotted out there everyday.

One other thing that came into my brain this week. If we assume Vlad is the regular 3B for the next couple of years, then Drury needs a home. Who do the Blue Jays use to play 2B?

Sogard
Travis, when he is better
Gurriel, when he returns
Hansen
Drury
Biggio, he looks to be ready

I don't know how the front office handles this. It's somewhat odd that in a rebuilding year you have two veterans in Galvis and Sogard handling the middle infield.

I assume Sogard will return to reality soon, and Hansen is discard-able, but deciding who between Drury, Gurriel and Biggio plays will be a challenge for the front office.

But my hype for vladdy has nothing to do with playoffs. I've given up on that dream with this FO.

My hypeness is based only on seeing what the best statistical hitting prospect I've ever seen will do on the diamond.

Travis, when he is better

I fear this will happen at around the same time I get thinner.

I'm trying to put some random thoughts together.

Posted a scouting report on DJ Neal a few minutes ago. To me, it had this almost death knell observation: "and specifically laying off spin in the dirt."

FG has this on Matt Boyd on his improved slider:

"So part of it is Driveline, part of it was James (Paxton), part of it was just working on it, working on it. It’s been a progression"

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/matthew-boyd-on-drivelining-his-slider-and-getting-his-body-in-line/

Some of what Boyd noted has been done for many years, players in the off-season exchanging grips and deliveries, but Driveline and other technologies have added a brand new element, especially on the pitching side.

Driveline does work with hitters as well. This is from their site:
Good hitters share similar characteristics.

Swing with the intent to do damage
Possess elite rotational power
Understand their approach and stick to it
Adjust to different speeds and locations

Note the order especially, and how it relates to the modern power over contact game. Deriving an optimal swing path with consistent mechanics to drive hittable pitches is teachable.

Picking up spin? Other than subconsciously spotting ephemeral clues (which technologies are doing more and more to prevent), it's pretty well a matter of "you got it or you don't", as this BA article points out

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-hitters-can-pick-up-a-pitchs-clues-earlier/

This all seems to tie in with the increased off speed usage by pitchers, fewer looks in a game at any one pitcher, power-over-contact approaches among other things.

Aaaaand...I take back back my pragmatism remark.

I'm not convinced that VGJ will be a third baseman when the 2020 season begins.

I agree. I think of Jim Thome (who was nowhere near as chunky as Vlad, but was unathletic). His move to 1B seemed inevitable and took too long in my mind. May as well get Vlad's inevitable move over and done with starting fresh next season. I wouldn't want his offense to suffer while trying to make him a functional third baseman.

Yeah i agree with Mike that "finding a home" for the likes of drury/brito/hansen is a waste of time. the only possible use they have is as versatile filler - i.e. the need to NOT need to "find a home" for them. and even then, their usefulness even as filler is doubtful.

But if we look to find "homes" for guys even just looking at next year....how about something like this?

CF Grichuk 28
RF McKinney 25
LF Biggio 25
3B Gurriel 26
SS Bichette 22
2B Urena 24
1B Vladdy 21
DH Tellez 25
C Jansen 25

OF Alford 25
C McGuire 25

UT Teoscar/Pompey/Hansen/Drury/Brito 27

My hope is that they waive all of Brito, Hansen and Drury and replace them with Vladdy, Biggio and Davis. Davis' ability to play CF and hit RH would improve both the defence and the balance in the OF. I would have Vladdy play 3B for the rest of the year - you need to give him his proverbial 500 ABs at 3B to see what his defence actually looks like. I'd then have Biggio and Sogard split the 2B/utility INF role. I really think this is the year to find out if Vladdy can play 3B (at least for a few years) and Biggio can play 2B. It's likely to hurt the INF defence this year but answering those questions will dictate some pretty important player personnel decisions for the next couple of years.

Zack Hyman only produced a single point (1G) and was -3 in the playoffs. I think he was reckless and didn't actually help his team.

Disagree, strongly! A rant is coming, indulge me please!

First of all, scoring wasn't (and never is) his job. The task of his line in this series was to control the damage done by the Bergeron-Marchand unit. Which they did, holding them to 3 even-strength goals in the seven games. (Bergeron-Marchand did wreak all sorts of havoc on the power play.)

I did think Hyman wasn't as effective in the final three games. He's normally the best forechecker on the team and his speed on the forecheck was causing problems for Chara in the first part of the series. It just wasn't there for the final games. I was wondering if he was tired - mixing it up with a big boy like Chara will take it out of you.

Hyman did post a -2 in the final game. He was on the ice for the Kurally goal, which I thought should have been stopped. And he personally arranged the final empty-net goal with 1 second left, but really, who cares about that.

I'd agree that he wasn't as good as he can be after the injury, but he was still better than anyone available to take his place.

1pt and a -5 from a first line winger and full time duty on a PK that got crushed all sereies doesn't work for me, especially when you know he's playing on one leg.

to play him on one leg only 30 seconds less than Matthews in a game 7 in which we were starved for goals was lunacy.

hyman's "fit" on a first line is tenuous even in the best of times - it takes a large amount of faith in the idea that skill players need a "plugger" to "get them the puck", despite the evidence that most top lines in hockey feature all skill guys - but when he's playing on one leg, it's almost inexcusable, imo.

I am wondering what the Magpie man cave looks like for him to simultaneously be following the Jays, Raptors and Leafs. A wall of screens I am guessing!

Nah, just the two computer screens. (Once you go to double monitors, there is no going back.) And the TV. I got more guitars than that...

I guess it's possible Nic Petan, the next man up, could have been better than Hyman in the final three games. By no means a sure thing. I have my own questions about Babcock's deployment of his roster in Game 7, but they revolve more around Marleau, Brown and Gauthier playing at all in the third period, with the team needing a goal to stay alive. The roster's not quite as deep as we may have thought. Dubas has some work to do.

Ok, enough of that! It's Vladdy Time!

I got more guitars than that...

Have you seen the Randy Bachman documentary? He has a warehouse for his guitars. Surely a man after your own heart.

marleau and brown are fine 4th liners.

Moore and Ennis deserved promotions.

Well, your rich rock star has hired help to change the strings and polish the finish. I've got an acoustic, an electric, a 12-string, a bass, a mandolin - and string changing day is a day. I'd like to add a lap steel, but...

But if we look to find "homes" for guys even just looking at next year....how about something like this?

Agree with Biggio in the outfield, but Gurriel at third? Yikes. He has trouble hitting first from second. I’d rather take my chances with Vladdy, subject to results this year.