Brito's route to that ball was, um, sub-optimal.  Chapman got the double, but it looked very catchable.

I really can’t see why 2 of 3 of Brito, Drury and Hansen aren’t gone for Vladdy and Biggio right now.

Morales looks better in green than blue,

So 20 games without a 2nd inning run and the streak is snapped by the guy no one had in the pool

That was a heck of a play by Sogard. Between the defence, plate discipline and LH batting he’s the most useful of the utility AAAA guys for this roster.

Great pick and throw by Sogard to get Profar.

Nerd Power is a wonderful thing to watch.

I think they should have challenged that call at 3rd. McKinney looked like he got the hand in before the tag on the ribs.

Enjoy Sogard's fluky hitting while it lasts. He has a career OPs of .627, slightly above Ryan Goins territory.

while some of our pitchers have been a bit lucky this year, stroshow has been legit dialled in. pitching as well as he ever has. his stuff looks awesome.

Really hope the Jays find a way to sign Stroman to an extension at some point.

If it was between Stroman and Sanchez, who would you pick?

For me, it's Stroman. It brings me back to when we traded Syndergaard and I was absolutely devastated that they kept Sanchez because of a "higher ceiling", as opposed to the player actually dominating. This is how I feel with Stroman. When he's on, he's on, and he's on a lot more than Sanchez. He adapts, and seems like a smart pitcher who could last for a number of years by being able to adjust. I think I rather a consistent #2, than a maybe occasionally sometimes ace.

i don't think it's a particularly close call.

Sanchez only had one good year where his ERA looked pretty fluky compared to his underling numbers.

Agree with Ugly. Not close. Stroman has been a very good pitcher every year except last. Sanchez has had one good year and that was in 2016.

Stroman for sure.

Excellent start Marcus - Keep up the good work

I know you love T.O but in all fairness, San Diego is an excellent place to spend your summer.

Stroman's better than Sanchez, yeah. Last year was his only year when he wasn't good, and that was largely due to the shoulder issue, and then blisters later on. He looks back to his regular self this year. Sanchez is kind of the other way - as a starter he's only had the one good year. I like Stroman's command and 'pitchability' a lot more.

Latest rumours from Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic yesterday have Houston looking for starting pitching help because Forest Whitley will be on an innings limit this year come playoff time. So he mentions Stroman, Sanchez and Bumgarner. If we can get 1/3rd the return the Rays got for Archer for Stroman I'd be happy. I'd rather keep Sanchez because of his frame and "less used" arm.

Between the two I would agree it's not even close right now, Stroman is the much better pitcher, which is why we may net out stronger by trading him and keeping Sanchez (may - all depends on if a strong return is had).

I have to say that "Marcus looks fresh and strong." How many times did Pat say that?

While I'd prefer trading with San Diego/Atlanta, this FO loves trading with the Astros - probably value players similarly and Shapiro/Atkins always seem to mention Houston as an organization to emulate - of course, we are not getting Whitley.

The Stroman/Sanchez debate seems mute to me as I expect the Jays to say sayonara to both this year assuming they are having solid years.

Jays should only trade if extension(s) not possible, and yes, Stroman should be the extension priority.

Thanks Mike - I should really learn to use the preview option.

When he's on, Stroman can hit the corners. Sanchez is more like Reid-Foley, throw it right down the middle and see where it ends up.

Houston is in win now mode and still have prospects.
Atlanta and San Diego are loaded with pitching prospects but might not be interested.
Stroman's ERA looks pretty good right now though.

It doesn't seem to be that mgt has any interest in opening extension discussions with either. I am ssuming both are gone August 1st.

But clearly extending them both is key to competing within Vlad's 5-yr window.

I can understand the desire to extend Stroman, but it should be acknowledged that last season he was hampered by shoulder problems and that he has had stretches of ineffectiveness (perhaps due to the shoulder issue). It’s unclear whether he can be a 180-220 inning per season pitcher for the next five or six seasons.

If the team can extend him at somewhat of a discount because of the health issue, they should probably do it. Would 5/$100m (for 2020-2024) be a reasonable extension for both sides?

Stroman seems like someone who would bet on himself so an extension that doesn't pay him like an ace might be hard to get done. Regardless, you have to adjust to market conditions. A year ago I would have said that as a rebuilding team the Jays should move Stroman, but the market has shifted to where free agency is not as lucrative for players, and teams are holding on to good prospects for dear life. There should be a reasonable price point to where there is more value in keeping him than there is in trading him. Both sides have to agree on a number though, and that's always the hard part.

The Jays are in a unique spot where they have no real financial commitments beyond 2020 except Gurriel and Grichuk, and plan to build the entire team around 0-3 (service time) players by the end of this season/beginning of next season. They could conceivably re-sign everyone (Stroman, Sanchez, Giles) and still be able to field a good young competitive team if their prospects pan out. I would still move Giles, though.

Over/under on how many more MLB games Brito has in his career. Would you go over 100?

The rationale behind signing Grichuk applies to Stroman as well. He’s an above average player at a position where the Jays simply don’t have internal assets to fill his position. The Jays paid market value for Grichuk - that was no “discount” deal. Why wouldn’t they pay market for Stroman? They will have to pay market value (in free agency or in prospects) to replace him. There doesn’t seem to be any interest in extending him so I would guess that the relationship is fractured.

The return for Archer (team friendly contract with 3 years left I believe) with longer track record but similar ceiling to Stroman was Shane Baz, Meadows and Glasnow.

Sounds like the vladdy/tuesday rumor was fake news.

It’s unclear whether he can be a 180-220 inning per season pitcher for the next five or six seasons.

Does matter as much as it used to? Last year only 32 pitchers had 180 IP, 13 200 IP, and only Scherzer hit 220 (barely).

I could swear someone (Atkins?? Montoyo?? Meacham??) said 20-30 AAA AB's? That should be the upcoming homestand.

Well, Stroman himself was a 200+ IP pitcher in his last two healthy seasons, so 180-220 IP seems like a reasonable benchmark for what you would hope to get out of him on an annual basis, given what it will take to extend him.

OK, I could see 180-200 as reasonable. The year after those 200+ IP's he had shoulder issues.

Stroman has had 2 injured years but has mostly been a horse.

Including postseason and milb:

Yr1: 33gms, 27gs, 5.3fwar/32, 4.6ra9war/32
Yr2: 9gms, 9gs, 3.2fwar/32, 10.4ra9war/32
Yr3: 34gms, 34gs, 3.4fwar/32, 2.2ra9war/32
Yr4: 33gms, 33gs, 3.3fwar/32, 4.8ra9war/32
Yr5: 20gms, 20gs, 2.4fwar/32, -0.7ra9war/32
Yr6: 5gms, 5gs, 7.0fwar/32, 7.0ra9war/32

Tot MLB: 113gs, 3.6fwar/32, 3.4ra9war/32

Sanchez: 73gs, 1.8fwar/32, 3.1ra9war/32

Khris Davis has his 2019 average at .247. The man can't help himself.

There doesn’t seem to be any interest in extending him so I would guess that the relationship is fractured.

Maybe, but this off season it wasn’t clear how Stroman was going to perform, so I’m not surprised that management was quiet. Moving forward, I would be disappointed if they didn’t at least try.

If you’re only interested in signing players when you are sure of how they are going to perform (which is pretty rare anyway) you are only ever going to pay top dollar- which we know this team won’t do. Mid salary teams need to take risks on players on occasion.

For better or worse, this FO will never take a significant risk. That is their entire MO.

Grichuk has performed as a 3+ war guy per 650pa in his career. Signing him for $10m is very very low risk, even if he never actually becomes a consistent healthy fulltime player. If he stays what he is, or even a little worse, he's still decent value....and then there's plenty of room for them to get surplus value out of the deal if he becomes a legit fulltime player and maintains a similar level of performance.

Stroman will cost double that, and his per/full season numbers are only moderately better than grichuk's, and his more established full-time player credentials are belied by the inherent extra riskiness of pitchers vs hitters. Paying $20m for stroman gives them very little room to get surplus value out of the deal.

Signing Gurriel for 7yrs on a bench player level contract is about as much risk as you'll see them take, imo.

Grichuk isn’t getting $10m for his free agency years it’s more like $14m. You need to compare apples to apples. If Stroman got $17-20m per for his free agency years then that would be in line with Grichuk’s deal. I agree that I don’t see this FO taking on that risk though.

Agreed UO. I feel that they will be 40% more expensive that TB.

We know how TB tries to operate. Their #1 rule is to have a low payroll. With that rule they cannot trade for expensive contracts. No expensive FA signings and no expensive extensions.

We have seen inexpensive extensions around the league lately. Acuna and Albies in Atlanta. B Snell in TB. C Archer was traded before he got expensive. I expect B Snell to also be traded before he becomes expensive. The return for Archer was T Glasnow and A Meadows who currently are cheap. When you trade good talent like Archer who also has a team friendly contract you should get a very good return.

I am eager to see how the C Morton FA acquisition is dealt with. Not cheap but only 2 years I believe.

All TB's moves have a minimal backlash from their fans.

Archer was traded by Cleveland along with 2 other prospects for Mark DeRosa.

Then Archer was one of 5 prospects traded to Tampa for Matt Garza, Fernando Perez and Zac Rosscup.
I'm pointing that out in reference to the quantity over quality argument.

Tyler Glassnow is not a prospect. He's out of options and was a 100 ERA+ sinker/slider pitcher that Tampa converted into a  4-seamer/curveball pitcher. (Kinda like what Sanchez is trying to do.)
Meadows was an outfielder similar to Teoscar Hernandez, above average offense, below average defense. He was a first round pick and has taken a huge step forward so far this year Offensively at least. He spent equal time at all 3 outfield position with Pittsburgh. Tampa is keeping him out of centerfield.
Shane Baz was a player to be named later. He's actually the Pirates' 2017 first round pick.

There's nothing wrong with waiting to be sure a pitcher is healthy before extending, unless the deal is team friendly. Remember the Ricky Romero extension? That was a huge part of why the Jays were not able to contend from 2013 to mid 2015, when AA cashed all his chips.

The Jays offered a market value deal to AA and he refused.
They passed on Bautista because he was declining quickly.
They couldn't agree on value with Donaldson either and they seemed to have been right.
They might have overpaid a bit with Morales, but at least he was healthy.

Just this year, the Jays are mostly paying for players no longer on the roster.
That is the biggest risk to the team, locking dollars into sunken deals.
They are doing quite well with 1 year contracts+ options.
The Rays are doing the same thing with Morton. 
Btw, Snell's broken toe could be a huge deal.

Jon Berti is coming back to the majors with the Marlins.

They may have just lost one of their better trading chips in another fluky play. Shoemaker hurt his knee in a rundown. It didn't look good.

Being a Jays trading chip has become akin to being a drummer for Spinal Tap.

There is a definite possibility Shoemaker did his ACL there. Not good.

Sogard for MVP.

Drury doesn't seem overly interested in getting a Buffalo vacation.

Drury hearing footsteps.

The Sanchez/Stroman situations will be interesting to see play out. Important calls for the team's future. I see that some prefer Stroman. If you want to take the opposite view, you could look at bWAR per 180 IP in their careers so far. Sanchez has a definite edge, with a 3.56 bWAR/180 compared to 2.90 bWAR/180 IP for Stroman. Sanchez also has a career ERA of 3.41 vs 3.82 for Stroman. Sanchez has done a better job of limiting hits in his career with 7.76/9 compared to 9.01/9 for Stroman. Sanchez is 14 months younger than Stroman. Sanchez' current salary is 47% lower than Stroman's, so you have a much lower number as a negotiating point with which to compare a possible future salary.

Stroman pitched to contact for a bit and got his bWAR up in the sky.
Sanchez has changed and keeps changing. He has a lot to prove right now.
We'll see where  they are at the end of June.

Hopefully Shoemaker is not out for too long.
The Jays have him for another year and his history will make hit hard to get a decent return for him.

They have a couple of days off, Monday and Thursday.
Then they might go with an opener, if Borucki isn't ready.
Waguespack could get a start.
They don't really have a reliever they can recall on the 40.

They just showed the replay of Shoemaker being examined while he was sitting down on the field. He looked very upset, and punched the ground really hard twice in frustration. I think he knew he suffered a bad injury. I wouldn't be surprised to hear he's done for the year.

Tough break for Shoemaker. He was pitching really well. I never viewed him as a trade deadline piece. Teams might give up value for a pitcher that could be in their playoff rotation, but I can't imagine many teams would have viewed Shoemaker as that sort of pickup. The extra year of control probably has more value to the Jays than anything they could have gotten for him at the deadline.

Left knee sprain. MRI tomorrow. Maybe he dodged a bullet.

He's upset because he has hardly played the last 2 years.
He was dealing an in line for his 4th win.
He's on a guaranteed 3.5M contract, but he just lost a chance at an extra 1M in bonuses.

I forgot that Borucki is on the 60IL.
Clayton Richard is the one who might be ready early May.

They don't really need an another starter until May 4th.

Hey, no compliments for #2JB for the prophetic photo in his preview?

There was a report on twitter that Vladi is coming up on Tuesday.

No idea how legit it is.

Hey, no compliments for #2JB for the prophetic photo in his preview?

Yeah, I was thinking that just as I entered this thread..

Let's hope Shoemaker is only out a little. All of a sudden, the hitters are, well, hitting. And the pitchers are pitching. This team could be fun to watch, especially if we can swap out, say Hanson or Brito for VGJ and he progresses as projected.

Who needs Vlad?

Derek Law has been pitching well in Buffalo and has ML experience but needs a 40 man spot, so maybe the great Jacob Waguespack makes his ML debut when Shoemaker hits the DL.

Smith Jr. with another home run for Baltimore yesterday. Now hitting .288/.333/.513 (0.7 WAR) in 87 PA. Teoscar still at zero WAR.

Glad to see Smith Jr doing well. Pity Pompey got injured after they traded Smith or he’d probably still be around

Teoscar is at .5 bWAR. Dwight Smith is at 0.4 bWAR.

Hernandez should hit more and Smith might get more playing time overall.
I certainly wouldn't swap them.

Baltimore is interesting. 5 teams in the AL East.

NYY & Boston will very rarely do a rebuild. Their fans would not like it and probably not even understand.

TB is constantly re tooling. Would usually have a nice mix or talented young and veteran players.

Baltimore and Toronto will do rebuilds. We know that because they are currently doing that.

What would be Toronto's and Baltimore's goal when they have opened their contending window? We don't know. Just be ok? 82-88 wins or have higher goals 89-96 wins for example.

For the 89-96 wins we know that NYY and Boston will use expensive FAs/players which will result in a V high payroll. JD Martinez and Stanton for example.

Baltimore currently does spend big. A Cobb and C Davis.

Toronto's current FO may or may not spend big. TB will not spend big.

I see every method working except maybe Baltimore. They should build a good core by losing like they are now and thereby getting the high draft picks. Then sign or trade for expensive players, to supplement.

Teoscar career (811 PA):

.241/.306/.470
0.9 fWAR
1.5 bWAR

Smith Jr. career (191 PA):

.291/.351/.488
0.9 fWAR
0.4 bWAR

It will be interesting to compare the two players over the course of their careers. In any case, there is no need to speculate about a swap of the two players, as the Jays controlled both a couple of months ago.

Nice to compare Smith Jr and Teoscar. Smith Jr can never produce if is not given playing time.

Smith could not earn playing time because he was considered mediocre at just about everything except being healthy which was not valued enough.

Teoscar has incredible power and could develop into a 30 Hr guy this year. He also has to improve his K ratio. His defense is getting better.

Smith Jr looks like he is outplaying Grichuk. Grichuk's K rate is worse.

Morales’ WAR/162 as a pitcher may well exceed what he can do as a position player.

Boston has the worst system in MLB. Dead last. 30th.
At some point the present group will run out of steam, it looks like it could happen very soon.
They'll probably trade a star or 2 for prospects if they can at that point.
They've traded key players in the past.

The Yankees just went through a rebuild.
Most of their players are on the DL, right now.
Their rotation is very old. They passed on signing a young starter this winter.

You don't rebuild when you have an MVP candidate in the lineup.
Boston has Betts, New York has Judge. Toronto had Donaldson.
It's very similar, except Donaldson was older.
It's like the Angels never doing a rebuild because they have Trout.

Boston could look a lot like Baltimore very fast, because they have no prospects.

Boston seems to be doing the weird Jeckyl and Hyde routine they mastered from 2011 to 2015 where they alternated first and last positions in the division from year to year. But yeah, their lack of minor league talent has to be a worry for the fans. Even Price was commenting he and other vets might be traded for prospects.

Still, they have lots of money to burn and a hatred for the Yankees that is medieval.

Been trying to keep my posts positive since there are plenty of posters who cover negativity much better than I possibly could.

However on Wednesday I felt compelled to bring up the brittleness of our starting staff. Took all of 3 days. Still trying to learn to think before I post.

Shoe on 10 day IL. Urena recalled.

I'm the guy who said Smith, if he ever gets an opportunity, might turn out to be a better player than Hernandez, in every way imaginable. Smith isn't the type of player who gets as many opportunities as a player like Hernandez, but in truth there's a pretty good reason for that. Hernandez might hit 40 HRs if everything goes right for him. Smith doesn't have that kind of upside.

Tellez has had two days in a row of really good ABs.

I don’t know about Hernandez v. Smith, I do know Hernandez has to hit a lot in order to be useful at all as an OF. His early season increased BB% would definitely help in that regard.

Cracked fingernail for Sanchez. That'll linger.

They were saying on the radio broadcast that a broken nail is actually fairly easy to recover from, and Sanchez might not need to miss a start. His next scheduled start isn't until a week from today.

Depends on the reason for it i guess.

Grichuk looks like he just signed the kind of contract that allows for less concern about quality of at bats.

What a game. If Urena doesn't come in, Galvis does not make that catch on a wobbly knee.

Shoemaker out for the year with a torn ACL. Yikes, I feel bad for him.

As I predicted yesterday, Shomaker tore his ACL and is out for the year. I feel really bad for him; he's had a career of hard luck.

Well if Sanchez goes down, they’ll already have had injuries to 5 of their top 6 starters. Pity now that they’re playing good offence and defence.

Yah, it was obvious that Shoemaker thought it was bad right away, the way he was pounding his fist into the ground. What a tough career he's had for injuries, with the skull fracture, the nerve damage in his forearm, and now this. I guess it opens a spot for a guy like Pannone or Gaviglio to show what he can do as a starter.

Thornton and Bochholtz just moved up in the charts.
Moving Shoemaker to the 60IL will open up a 40 roster spot.
They should probably put Sanchez on the 10IL too.

Pannone, Gaviglio, Waguespack, opener, tandem start.
Gio Gonzales is possibly available.

The Jays are just 1 game below .500.

Dwight Smith is in the bottom half of the rankings for advanced hitting metrics. I think it explains why the front office retains some of the players they do over others. They are big on "advanced" underlying numbers, like hard hit rate, velocity off bat, and independent slugging percentage...all categories where Smith is in the bottom half of the league.

To put things in perspectives, most of the Yankees are on the Injured list, Boston has lost Eovaldi to an elbow issue, Brock Holt has a scratched cornea, out indefinitely, Pedroia's knee is acting up and Nunez has a strained back

Back in Tampa, Meadows is on the IL with an injured thumb, Snell, with a broken toe, Matt Duffy with an hamstring and Ji-Man Choi is dealing with a calf.

Baseball is like that.

Ji-Man Choi is dealing with a calf.

I know the Rays are cutting costs, but to have players work as farmers during their down time seems extreme.

So Toronto and Baltimore gave up on 2019 before the end of 2018 and committed to a rebuild.

Of the 3 left standing TB seems to be doing the best. C Morton was a big pickup for them.

L Severino was a big loss. Very few are consistently durable.
Tanaka, Paxton, D German and Sabathia are carrying the load quite well. They also have Happ. They may survive.

Boston will have to compete with their bats and defense. Only D Price is pitching well so far.

Maybe the AL East division title and the 2 WCs are up for grabs this year.

We'll see. If it's down to Pannone and Gaviglio, Montoyo could go to an opener.
I think Clayton is starting to throw. Maybe mid-May if there's no set back.
They have a 40 roster spot to fill with a pitcher.
All the other pitchers on the roster are currently starting in the minors, most with little success.

Derek Law has looked good so far in a his 4 AAA game. That's an option.
Justin Shafer has been better in his 4 Buffalo games, but I'd be weary of losing him since he's already been outrighted once.
Then Waguespack is  pretty much the only starter who has  earned an MLB start.

Profar did not look in that last series.
I checked on the scout favourite. -1 bWAR -0.6 fWAR.
Struggling both offensively and defensively.

The defence behind the run prevention passes the eye test as well. The infield defence, with the exception of Gurriel, has looked above average (particularly on the right side), as has the C defence. The OF defence hasn’t looked a total mess either, although I’m not sure the defensive metrics will ultimately be kind to either of McKinney or Hernandez.

Err left side - I’ll get my left and right sorted out one day.

Drury has definitely passed the eye test defensively to me. He looks very good at 3B so far, a lot better than I expected. Having Galvis up the middle has been great as well. The team seemed to make it a priority to improve Teoscar's defense in LF. Fangraphs has rated him positively so far (+4 DRS, +2.1 UZR). I haven't seen enough plays from him to judge, but if he's improved enough to be average defensively, combined with improved plate discipline, then he has a chance to take a step forward overall. The power he has shown the past two years has to show up though, combined with the other things.

Was it just my old eyes, or should Drury have been able to make a play on Laureano's single in the ninth?  Off the bat, it looked to me like a 5-4-3 to end the game and Drury was playing off the line enough (I thought) to make the play.

Challenges of Life, Part 379: Explaining to your friend the hockey fan that the pitcher had to come out of the game because he broke a fingernail.

Hahaha Magpie.

We did well against Minnesota and Oakland. Got swept by Cleveland.

So 40 more games gets us and the league to 60 games played. I think if we are still in play for the AL East and both WCs that we should scrap playing the dumpster acquisitions. I mean a serious roster evaluation. No point in holding back any help from the minors unless there is a very good reason to. For example holding Bo and Biggio back for service time reasons. We have to keep Smoak and Galvis etc... contributing veterans for the whole year. Not trade them for average returns.

Last Calendar Year:



1B Smoak (32): 588pa, 14.1b%/25.2k%, .302bip/.253avg, .232iso, 132wrc+, 2.8war650
CF Grichuk (27): 491pa, 6.1b%/26.3k%, .302bip/.259avg, .263iso, 124wrc+, 3.2war650
DH Tellez (24): 135pa, 5.2b%/30.4k%, .351bip/.282avg, .274iso, 133wrc+, 2.9war650
RF McKinney (24): 205pa, 7.8b%/23.9k%, .300babip/.250avg, .185iso, 102wrc+, 0.6war650
LF Teoscar (26): 579pa, 8.3%/30.6k%, .301babip/.231avg, .206iso, 97wrc+, 0.1war650
SS Galvis (29): 661pa, 5.4b%/21.8k%, .306bip/.256avg, .151iso, 89wrc+, 1.8war650
2B Travis* (28): 327pa, 4.6b%/14.7k%, .259bip/.245avg, .168iso, 87wrc+, 0.0war650
C Jansen (24): 158pa, 9.5b%/22.2k%, .270bip/.219avg, .131iso, 86wrc+, 3.7war650
3B Hanson (26): 347pa, 2.9b%/24.2k%, .300bip/.244avg, .155iso, 77wrc+, 0.4war650

UT Drury (26): 140pa, 5.0b%/32.1k%, .253bip/.177avg, .115iso, 41wrc+, -2.3war650
OF Brito (26): 72pa, 9.7b%/27.8k%, .159bip/.125avg, .047iso, 4wrc+, -7.2war650
IF Sogard (32): 95pa, 11.6b%/15.8k%, .239bip/.198avg, .025iso, 49wrc+, -1.4war650
C Maile (28): 232pa, 10.3b%/31.0k%, .302bip/.212avg, .118iso, 74wrc+, 4.5war650


CF Pompey* (26): 11pa, 9.1b%/54.5k%, .500bip/.200avg, .000iso, 35wrc+, 0.0war650
RF Alford (24): 24pa, 8.3b%/41.7k%, .167bip/.091avg, .000iso, -25wrc+, -5.4war650
LF Gurriel (25): 302pa, 4.0b%/23.2k%, .312bip/.264avg, .158iso, 94wrc+, 0.0war650
3B Urena (23): 135pa, 5.9b%/28.9k%, .434bip/.301avg, .081iso, 100wrc+, 2.4war650
SS Bichette (21): ----
2B Biggio (24): ----
1B Vladdy (20): ----
C McGuire (24): 33pa, 6.1b%/27.3k%, .350bip/.290avg, .290iso, 146wrc+, 7.9war650

Being in contention for the WC will not cause any rethinking of roster decisions although a surprise contention for 1st place might give cause to ponder. I dodn't think they are committed to trading Galvis or any other player with term to 2020 (have option on Galvis) but Smoak ,being a pending FA, will be moved as soon as there is a taker.

I think that Stroman will either be extended or dealt by the end of July. Others can wait till off or next season if necessary though Giles is a strong candidate to be moved in July.

They should be making the best deals for the team with an eye to 2020 and beyond whether that means buying OR selling.

All right.  The Astros in 2017 acquired Verlander principally for Daz Cameron.  Verlander was under contract for $28 million in 2017, 18 and 19 and the Tigers agreed to assume $8 million in 2018 and 2019.  I guess that you'd approve of that kind of buying, but not the guy with just the remainder of the year on the contract.  Is that it?

Luke Maile as expected is the Jays best player.

If the Jays are in the WC chase, clearly the best thing to do is trade VG/Bichette/Biggio for a 3 year playoff window and then rebuild.

Before the rebuild its best to go to a different team.

I'm glad you remembered Travis. I didn't.

I'm setting aside Friday evening to attend a baseball game.

I guess my feeling (and I say this as very uninformed mlb-watching-only fan) - we're gonna need pitchers for the next few years no matter what we do.

Shoemaker's out for the year - that's a hole. He might return next year all healed to pitch another 50-60 innings before getting hurt again - he seems to be Brett Anderson part 2 - alas. Buchholz is on a one year deal, and it's unknown if he is even here by the end of the year.

Stroman and Sanchez could be kept for one more year through arb, but one will most likely be traded before next year, I would imagine.

Thornton is an unknown, but AFAICT, he's the only one pretty much guaranteed to be here next year, if he can keep pitching at a reasonable level and not get injured.

At this point, I would be picking up contracts like Verlander's that was mentioned - "overpriced vet" who had good years in the past and isn't too old, but currently not pitching to full value. Are there any out there? No idea. But, someone pitching at eg. ~2 WAR making $20M/year. We have so much money available in the next few years, even if we pay $80M for 8 reliable WAR in the pitching staff, with a chance to get to 10-12, it would be a huge impact, IMHO.

But that's just because I haven't seen / heard much about any prospects who could step into the rotation, other than Borucki or Reid-Foley, and neither one has really impressed me.. The others all seem 2-3 years away before they make an impact.

L Maile is our best player?? I know that he is outplaying D Jansen so far. How close is the numbers evaluation for Maile (26 AB) and Sogard (22AB). Galvis at SS also plays a key defensive position and is definitely better offensively than Maile. Smoak is the DH and would need a monster performance to be considered better than a catcher.

bpoz: I think pubster is looking at ugly's chart over the last "calendar" year, which list Maile as our best player by WAR650

Yeah, pubster be pubsterin'. :)

And Smoak has has a monster start to the year. 175 wRC+ has him as the 13th best hitter in baseball.

Thanks pops. Sorry pubster. I skipped reading the chart.

But I am going to follow this Jays team like it has a chance to make the playoffs until it is out. If out I will cheer for trades and promotions. So I looked at 2010's final standings. I did check the results for July 15,2010. Our record 44-45. No 2nd WC in 2010. 5 teams ahead of us for the non existent 2WC July 15. So do nothing is good even if there was a 2WC.

The leader of the non existent 2WC was Boston 51-38. The final 2WC standings were Boston 89, CWS 88 and Toronto 85 wins.

So we definitely had a shot at the 2010 2WC.

I loved that team Cito was the manager and he was doing a farewell to Toronto.

The 2010 team hit a lot of HRs. Dumpster dove D Eveland, J Accardo, M Valdez. A lot of youth that did well. Many veteran position players.
So a couple of similarities to this team. Both did play hard IMO.

Back in the 2016 draft, the Jays took J.B. Woodman in the 2nd round just before the Giants took Bryan Reynolds. At the time, a few of us mentioned that we thought the Jays should have taken Reynolds. The Giants traded Reynolds to the Pirates in the McCutchen trade, and I see the Pirates just called up Reynolds to the big leagues a couple of days ago. He was OPS'ing 1.181 in AAA and has gone 4 for 6 in his 1st 2 major league games. We all know what happened to Woodman, although at least he was turned into Aledmys Diaz/Trent Thornton.

I would basically buy anyone that I thought made the team better starting from next day forward. I would have trade Bo Bichete for Yellich when the Marlins were selling. I would trade any prospect or player for another prospect or player if it made the team better. Basically just take risks with the best calculation you can and with the willingness to eat money. That would be my strategy. It could mean extending a bunch of guys and trading away guys. The main point for me is that you can't just go selling or buying, they're different and both necessary in my version of a reset/rebuild.

Bo just got hit with a pitch on his left hand and removed from the game.

Bichette was in obvious pain...it did not look good. Hopefully not broken.

Wasn't the rumour the Jays offered Bo, but the Fish wanted Vlad?

I don't think it was ever stated who the Jays were offering. It was just said that the Marlins wanted Vlad, and once the Jays said no, they went with the Brewers offer instead. I vaguely remember reading that the Jays tried to give up lesser prospects while eating a bunch of bad contracts, but the Marlins weren't interested in saving money on that particular deal. Given how bad Brinson has looked, maybe they should have in hindsight.

My personal opinion of Miami is "cheap and unlovable". But let Stanton or maybe a Miami fan explain it better.

Jeff Blair had Bo offered for Yelich in a tweet. I never read or follow Blair so I don't know how credible he is.

Jeff Blair is connected. He has called a lot of things before they unfolded, such as Pillar to the Giants.

I was crazy for Yelich especially after he signed that team friendly contract in Miami (I remember some here were rather negative about Yelich) - As I remember, after the criticism for the Stanton & Ozuna trades, it was reported that Miami was determined to get the #1 rated prospect from whichever team they traded Yelich to and for the Jays that was Vlad.

Yelich has definitely taken a big step forward. So far this year looks better than last year. 16 bb and 16 K. Also just about everything looks better.

Drafted by Florida in 2010. Florida won 87 games in 2009, so a pretty good season. Better than 19 other teams, so picked #20 in round 1. Many teams passed.

They actually picked Yelich at the 23rd position. The Jays picked Deck McGuire at the 11 slot. (Sob)

Last week I noticed that the Jays were throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches this year with much better results as a team. I tried to figure out of this was just the new pitchers working their way in, or significant changes to pitchers in last years staff. The example I want to highlight is Marcus Stroman.

Year / FB% / xwOBA / K%
2019 / 56.3% / 0.296 / 22.8%
2018 / 64.6% / 0.325 / 17.1%
2017 / 66.0% / 0.322 / 19.7%

To dive a little deeper lets looking into his pitching splits for 2019:

Pitch Type / xwOBA / K%
Fastballs / 0.362 / 14.7%
Breaking / 0.195 / 38.3%
Offspeed/ 0.255 / 0.0%

It seems that increasing his breaking ball usage from 30.9% to 37.4% he is getting more strikeouts and allowing less hard contact which is a big part of his success.

Other pitches with lowered fastball percentages include Thomas Pannone (64.2 to 58%), Sam Gaviglio (54.7% to 49.5%), Ken Giles (59.1% to 51.0%). The pitches who still have high fastball usage are Aaron Sanchez (63.4% to 63.2%) and Joe Biagini (76.6% to 73.9%).

Miami has a reputation for being cheap. Gord Ash was told to cut costs (be cheap). Correct me if I am wrong V Wells and A Rios were cheap signings I believe.

Was Yelich a cheap signing? G Stanton was also a HS pick. Yelich reached the majors quickly and always had a good BA .280+

Vernon Wells was definitely not a cheap signing, he had a famously large albatross of a contract when AA got rid of him without having to pay for it all. Rios was somewhere in between, with his contract buying out an arbitration year or two. Probably about the right $ amount for his time, give or take.

Increasing breaking ball usage, I think, ties into the overall baseball approach of getting every pitcher to go closer to max effort all the time. Part of that is throwing more breaking balls, which have traditionally been thought to put more wear and tear on arms. Don't "save" any pitches until later, because it gets late awfully early these days for starters.

Sanchez needs to learn a new breaking ball (and maybe a new grip on every pitch), or something (permanent bullpen assignment?), because his fingers can't seem to handle his current pitches (blisters, fingernails, arthritis next?). His GD fingers.

fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches

Apparently, this is a league-wide trend.

Bo Bichette has a broken hand, per ESPN.

"Part of that is throwing more breaking balls, which have traditionally been thought to put more wear and tear on arms."

Just read this at The Athletic :

"The fastball might be the most stressful pitch on the elbow, according to the most recent research featuring stress-measuring sleeves.
And the fastball has the worst pitch-by-pitch results of any pitch type. Batters like them and hunt them for a reason."

https://theathletic.com/756814/2019/01/14/sarris-pitchers-who-could-have-a-breakout-season-in-2019-by-making-one-small-adjustment/

I think bpoz was referring to the signing bonuses Wells & Rios received upon being drafted. I think Miguel was another such 1st rounder who was picked due to his affordability.

Marcus did allude to that here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/robbie-erlin-tommy-hottovy-and-marcus-stroman-expound-on-curveballs/

Thanks Mathesond. I was referring to draft signing bonuses.

You think Miggy Cabrera may have been a cheap Int'l signing bonus? We don't know.

L Severino cheap but catcher G Sanchez v expensive.

As I mentioned before I am 67 years old and love this site. Poor memory unfortunately. I cannot remember the Int'l player successes of Ash and Richardi. Henderson Alverez is all.

Urena gets the start at shortstop today.  Can we guess that whatever was troubling Galvis on Sunday (a hammy perhaps) is still bothering him?  Socrates Brito gets the start and plays centerfield with Teoscar getting the night off. 

Hopefully Brito playing tonight means he isn't playing tomorrow, when our company takes in our annual Jays game. Silver lining!

The Giants are sending lefty Drew Pomeranz to the mound tomorrow, so the skies are bright on the Brito front. 

This is Galvis' first day off since 2016.

I'm guessing he won't play tomorrow either, that would give him 4 days off.

Charlie gave Smoak some time off and it paid off.

No reason to do anything differently here.

Guerra is down in Buffalo. They'll need to add a pitcher to replace Shoemaker, but they can wait a whole week if they want.


Bichette will probably end up in the AFL.

It's bad for Buffalo. The pitching sucks and none of the big hitters will stick around.