Here's some detail on the planned facilities development in Dunedin.  It is scheduled to be complete by spring training 2020. 

300 plus comments is way too much to scroll through.

True, but this site does allow the option to view the comments in reverse chronological order. That does mitigate endless scrolling.

Interesting new agreement between Cuba and MLB.

The Cuban players will still need to go through a 3rd countries to apply for Visas.
Would Canada make sense? It doesn't sound like the players need to play in a league there.

Also, will the Jays start deploying scouts in Cuba?
Again, wouldn't it be easier to simply operate from Canada?

I remember Beeston was too Americanized as he refused to even consider Cuba even though there were ways in Canadian law he could've forced the issue in the 80's if he wanted to and give the Jays a massive home field advantage potentially. Maybe the new crew will be more willing to look at it as they seem less politicized (Beeston seemed to love MLB head office).

Any thoughts on the video clip of Mark Shapiro's comments on Sportsnet, about him being confident they will be able to 'impact pitching depth dramatically'

Does that imply some of the veterans will be traded for near ready MLB pitchers?

That's just a statement of confidence in Atkins.
It's no secret that that they need a lot of pitching under control beyond 2020.
Also in 2020, they'd rather be chasing a 2nd wildcard than trading pitching to a contender.

Shapiro also says he expects attendance to dip further.
That's just saying he has a plan and he's going to stick to it and not be influenced by short term gains.

The top Shapiro comment this week might be he retelling of Cleveland fans trying threatening to beat him up after the Bartolo Colon trade, a trade that was a clear loss for Montreal.

Moving the Machado/Harper predictions here.

I expect the Yankees to sign Machado and trade Andujar.
They'll try to pay as little as possible as Boston did with JD Martinez, but other teams will hopefully drive the price high.

Harper is a tough one.
Reminds me of Arod. It's hard not to expect that he'll eventually be traded if on a 10 years contract.
You can either assume he'll be reasonably healthy and productive over the first 7 years, like Cano was.
Or you can consider trading him at a loss after a few years, Arod style.
I don't think outfielders are particularly hard to acquire right now, so I'll have to guess on a team with deep pockets.
Let's say Dodgers.

His comments combined with Atkins comments from the winter meetings about being close to some moves I believe is about signing cheap bounce back candidates of which there are many and the Jays have lots of openings to play these vets and ship them off at the trade deadline while also being able to fill in for Stroman when traded which to me is now a question of when before the season not if.

I think Shapiro thinks/thought they will have 2-3 (possibly more) of these types of pitchers by spring training:

Trevor Cahill
Anibal Sanchez
Ervin Santana
Drew Pomeranz
Kelvin Herrera
Gio Gonzalez
David Phelps
Daniel Hudson
Matt Shoemaker
Shelby Miller
Adam Ottavino
Jake Diekman
Wade Miley
Brad Boxberger
Hunter Strickland

There's a lot more of these types of players this year compared to last when they signed and flipped Afford, OH and tried with Clippard.

Well, we already have 2 Cubans on the team.
There's a lot of Cuba/Canada direct flights.
It would kinda makes sense for players to come here to a training facility where they can start learning English.
I would expect it takes months to get those visas...

"Does that imply some of the veterans will be traded for near ready MLB pitchers?"


safer bet is a bunch of cheapo AAAA signings.

Marcus Stroman @MStrooo6
Machado is going to the Yankees. Yankees go out and get everyone. Red Sox are lethal. Rays are dangerous. Can never sleep on the Orioles. I’m going to the gym. Gonna be in my zone all year. Excited to compete in the best division in baseball! #ALEast




my man.

If the Jays could sign Gio and Shoemaker they would have a pretty solid rotation.

Fantastic positive attitude UO. I am impressed that you mentioned competing in the AL East. That is the biggest factor.

I think they would sign those two types to replace traded players like Stroman and possibly Sanchez later in the year.

Trevor Cahill to the Angels.

I do think that additional starting pitching will be acquired and that at least one acquisition will be relatively expensive. Shapiro's remarks on PTS last night pointed in that direction.

I also like the idea of extending Grichuk.

Mike your post is I think a very clear rendition of where this FO is taking 2019 but only thing I see differently is FO will delay Bichete and Biggio until 2020 and trade Stroman and therefore sign a few free agent pitchers on 1-2 year deals. This is also why Atkins mentioned the possibility of an INF veteran signing.

Trevor Cahill to the Angels.

Yeah that was a bit disappointing. I've been using this tidy summary to quickly track who is left:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274

I figured 2+ WAR SPs might be a nice sweet spot for 1 year deals and it looks like the Angels have targeted exactly that. It'll be interesting to see what they do with Cahill and Harvey at the deadline.

Personally, I would be completely happy if the club did not make any significant acquisitions heading into 2019. If the 25 man roster as of May 1 (or June 15) is the following, I would be fine with it:

I agree from an on-the-field perspective, but let me ask you this: would you be satisfied, as a fan, if the Jays went into next season with a ~$65M payroll and as the 26th - 29th highest spending team in the Majors?

Personally, I don't expect the Jays to spend as if they were in a contention window, but I'd be extremely disappointed with a budget that isn't middle class ($120M) or lower-middle class ($100M), with those extra dollars going towards short-term, low risk deals that could be converted to mid-range prospects, international cap money etc.

Cahill (and Harvey) to the Angels is interesting, IMO, as it opens up trade possibilities for the Jays. Angels have big holes at 3B or 2b, C and RF. They need to compete given Trout is at his prime but have a bad farm system. Before these signings they didn't have much SP depth. Now, with a rotation of Skaggs, Heaney, Harvey, Cahill and one of Tropeano, Pena, Ramirez and Barria (and Ohtani maybe in '20), they have some excess.

Barria for Drury, Maile/McGuire and ...

Angels surely are in contention but when you rattle off that starting rotation it's nearly laughable that they can compete against the A's or Astros. If they had a Stroman then you could make an argument, but with Harvey and Cahill needing to be pitching like #2 or #3 SP's I don't see them going anywhere.

When you're trying to compete, you don't sign guys on one year deals.

I doubt they trade away young pitchers because they signed a couple of vets on 1 year deals.

Barria is 22 years old.

When you're trying to compete, you don't sign guys on one year deals.

How so? The Blue Jays signed Dave Winfield to a one year deal and won a WS.

What is the difference between a mercenary who starts the season on your roster vs. a mercenary who you pick up mid way through the season? There are tons of examples of both.

The thing the Jays need to figure out is how to participate in that market and come out a winner in the long-run.

One way to do that is to convert FA dollars to more prospect ping pong balls in the drum and hope you strike it rich with one of them exceeding expectations.

Another way to do it, which I applauded the Jays for doing, is to use your 25 man roster creatively, as they're doing with Luciano via the Rule V.

it will be interesting to see how the hitters do with the new coaches.
Teoscar is playing winter ball, hopefully working on his defense.

Grichuk looked good after coming back from injury.
If he can sustain that level, I'd extend him no question.

Bichette could go to Arizona in 2019, Biggio has already gone though, so he should be a September callup.

The rotation is extremely important to a team's success.

LAA does not have a strong rotation.

Stroman & Sanchez may not be good but are young, experienced and cheap. Borucki young, ML ready and cheap. Can they compete in the AL East.

Estrada & Gaviglio are not very good. AL East? J Garcia, the worst. Get something better than these 3 or use prospects. AL East.

Gaviglio was good last year for two times through the order.  He's a perfectly fine long man/6th starter.  Overall, he had an xFIP- of 98 which is good for a 3rd starter, let alone a 5th.  I'm not sure he can repeat that, but the club could do worse than giving him 120 innings next year. 

Good article on new Jays hitting coach:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/learning-failure-essential-blue-jays-new-hitting-coach-martinez/

I'm with you Mike - I'd much rather they commit that way than add a bunch of useless vet "depth".

it would both be more interesting to watch and would at least make it seem like the FO isn't just completely half-assed and too weak to stick to its guns.

Sam Gaviglio....the opener.

Some of the comments made by the front office (and the media) seem to be based on the assumption that it doesn’t make sense to sign quality free agents until the team is ready to contend. The implicit message is, be patient and we will have the resources to spend when we need to. There are a few problems with this message:

-Some free agents that are available now might be useful players to have on the next contending team

-Maintaining a robust payroll can arguably accelerate the rebuilding process by adding (or freeing up existing) assets that can be traded

-When the team is finally ready to spend, there might not be a good match between the team and the available free agents

-The front office has used this line before (if the team continues to perform well and/or the fans keep showing up, the resources will be there to substantially improve the team) — in 2016, to be precise — but the promised resources never really materialized

-The promise of significantly more resources post-2019 seems to have as much, if not more, to do with the expiring contracts of Martin and Tulo than it does with a robust payroll ceiling. Note the front office refers to “payroll flexibility” after 2019, not a high payroll

I'd prefer not to rush guys. I think Bichette probably gets the Vladdy treatment and is called up in mid-April 2020, to get an additional year of his rights. Biggio probably could use a full, or nearly full, season in AAA. Adding a couple of decent veterans would help the team this year, and then they could be dealt for prospects at the deadline, or if signed to a 2-year deal, then traded in the offseason or during the 2020 season. I think it's doubtful that all of the near-ready pitching prospects like Reid-Foley, Pannone, etc are all ready for the big leagues this year. Sign a starter or two, and then you can let them proceed at the appropriate pace. Mike, I don't think you'll see Gurriel on the bench any time soon. It seems to me the organization really likes him a lot, he's on that long term contract, and I expect he'll get a long look at SS, and if they determine he can't handle the position, he'll be moved to 2B or the OF, not to the bench. Morales and Martin are obviously gone after this year, if not sooner, and I expect at least 2 of Stroman, Smoak and Pillar to be gone by next year as well. Shapiro talked about the team's age in that interview, and he said that the team had been too old, and is now too young, so with those vets leaving there will be a desire to add some veteran presence over the next 15 months.

Guys sign 1 year deals because they are not good enough to be offered 2 year deals at a price they like.
Guys on 1 year deals are risky. When you're trying to compete you go for guys that are dependable.
Garcia was on a 1 year deal with an option year and it looks like a good signing at the time.
The return for 2 months of a player on a 1 year deal is going to be pretty marginal.
Donaldson was decent with Cleveland, but didn't move the needle at all in the playoffs.
Donaldson on a 1 year deal is a good gamble for the Braves. The possible QO certainly helps.
But it's better to sign reliable guys like JD Martinez if you can.
The Mariners took a step back. The Rangers are still awful. The A's don't have a lot of options for retooling.
The Angels are edging their bet and aiming for a wild card. 
It's a lot better than Lynn on a 3 year deal, mind you.

scottt if you are competing you go for the best talent you can, or the person with the best chance to be the best. This is often someone who commands a multi-year deal, but it doesn't need to be. You can also go high risk, high reward if the two likely occurrences are the player is great or the player is useless and off your 25 man roster (dl, minors, traded, released). Some one year make-good deals or late career options are great for teams going for it. And some positions (like SP) tend to have good flexibility and depth needed that also match this. JD and Tulo are both examples of this potential upside to contenders.

The front office does not seem to be signalling a push to compete in 2020. They seem to be taking an organic (and frugal) approach to becoming good again. That means focusing on building a strong farm system and continually being “opportunistic” (a favourite Atkins word) in looking for low-cost value acquisitions. The FO is giving no indications of forcing the issue to speed up the process. Which may be the right approach in the long run for a team with a mid-market budget that is trying to compete in a very tough division.

“What would not make me happy is seeing Smoak and Morales in the lineup every day taking PAs away from Tellez and Hernandez.”

“it would both be more interesting to watch and would at least make it seem like the FO isn't just completely half-assed and too weak to stick to its guns.”

Yup you guys nailed. I have no trouble dumping Tulo as long as they go whole-hog. Let’s see if the farm team’s for real.

Bichette, Guerrero and Biggio are not even on the 40 roster.
The current infielders are Smoak, Travis, Gurriel, Urena, Drury and Tellez.
At best, Gurriel could be the backup shortstop. I still expect him to mainly play at 2B.
Tellez is probably in AAA until Smoak is traded at the deadline.
Moving up, I imagine they'll rotate position players at DH so the bench guys play regularly.

It's mostly the rotation that is too young.
Shortstop is not where you want a veteran.

What would not make me happy is seeing Smoak and Morales in the lineup every day taking PAs away from Tellez and Hernandez. 

One might find Tellez more interesting than Smoak - fair enough. It is, however, unlikely he will out-perform Smoak. Tellez raked to the tune of a 943 OPS in the majors but that was only over 70ABs and is out of line with his minor league career. His career minor league OPS is 776 which is poor for a 1B, and even if you took his terrible 2017 out of the equation it is not going to be spectacular. The one thing in his favour is that he has held his own in the minor leagues at a youngish age. He had an excellent year in AA at 21 when the average age for AA was 22.

Dr. B, it has little to do with expected performance in 2019.  I know that if you run a projection for 2019, Smoak's will be better than Tellez'.  However, the club says that it is building for 2020 and beyond (and it is the right thing to do).  Smoak is not under contract for 2020 and will be 33 then.  He was poor before age 29, was a 3 WAR player at age 30, a 2 WAR player at age 31.  We know what the long-term expectation is...

Tellez is 23, one month older than Biggio. I don't think spending another 3 more months in AAA with Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio, and all would be wasting his ABs. He'll be playing with many future Blue Jays.
It's not like he's destroying the International League.

The problem with rebuilding teams signing free agents is that free agency is about paying for up front production and getting less in the back end of the deal.

RE: Tellez

For what its worth:

Pre All-Star:
.248/.329/.382/.711
246abs, 6HR, 44ks, 28bbs

Post All Star:
AAA
.306/.360/.497/.856
147abs, 7HR, 30ks, 12bbs
MLB
.314/.329/.614/.943
70abs, 4HR, 21ks, 2bbs

My theScore app says the Jays have signed Sogard.

Although I don't see the news anywhere.

I'd start with Tellez down probably but if he hits in the first month or two in AAA, the Jays need to make room for him in the majors.

I would also start Tellez in Buffalo.

#BlueJays have agreed to sign infielder Eric Sogard to a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training per @ByRobertMurray

Sogard hit .134/.241/.165 in 55 games for the Brewers in 2018, spending most of his time at 2B/SS. He's 32, bats left, has a lifetime .623 OPS

The Rangers have finally traded Profar, to the A's in a complicated trade involving the Rays.
Rangers took infielder Eli White from the A's and 3 Rays minor league pitchers.
The Rays pick up Emilio Pagan and Rollie Lacy.

Hard to know who did well here.
A's are moving from Lowrie and will force Baretto to earn a spot.

The problem with rebuilding teams signing free agents is that free agency is about paying for up front production and getting less in the back end of the deal.

Agreed for long-term deals. I think the industry (much to Scott Boras' dismay) has moved away from really long terms for players who aren't bonafide stars in the league.

As the saying goes, there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and we're seeing a lot of 1 and 2 year terms in the starting pitching mid-market. Today, the Nats picked up Anibal Sanchez for 2/19 today. The worst-case scenario for the Jays securing guys in that range is they get Tulo'd and can't play at all, but the deal expires well in advance of when you need the money to add to a core. A good case scenario is you have an asset of value that can be moved and didn't cost you prospect capital.

We only need to find a AA manager?

Sogard was better in 2017 however:

from Stoeten: slashed .273/.393/.378 over 299 PA in 2017! Seems to have really improved his ability to take a walk the last couple years. So... might be serviceable if some of the more important options ahead of him get hurt (which is the reason they signed him, obviously).

Sogard has had solid walk rates for his entire career. He's also had very little power his entire career as well.

Last year he had a .173 BABIP

Classic Low Risk/Low Return scenario.

Maybe they can invite 2017 Sogard to spring training. That would be good. Now where did I leave that time machine?

Sogard could be a nice add - LHB and if he wins the backup mi job, then Urena gets more time in AAA which can be beneficial.

This signing of Sogard is not news or forum discussion worthy.

Over the past 3 seasons (292 at bats) Sogard has a .353 OBP against RHP. OPS .665 though.

Class A @FloridaStateLg @DunedinBlueJays will play bulk of home games at Clearwater's Jack Russell Stadium in 2019 while renovations are made to Dunedin Stadium as part of improvements in new deal with #BlueJays

Sogard is not discussion worthy, but the probability that he'll play in Toronto is high.

Dodgers trade Kemp, Alex Wood and Puig to the Reds for Homer Bailey and 3 prospects.

Looks like they are making room for Harper.

Scottt, I gotta say you're quickly becoming my newsbreaker for MLB/Jays while also providing timely insightful posts.

Interestingly, in the Emilio Pagan deal, the Rays have traded Brock Burke, their minor league pitcher of the year along with Kyle Bird. The two were added to the 40 roster just before the Rule V draft. That didn't keep the Rays for losing a player in that draft. The Rays also got a high A pitcher and a draft pick. So clearly the trade was mostly about roster management on the Rays side. Should the Rays acquire another MLB ready player, they'll probably have another similar deal.

So if Kemp/Bailey cancel each other out then it looks like this:

To LAD
Josiah Gray
Jeter Downs

To CIN
Alex Wood
Yasiel Puig


*Would Stroman and Pillar be a similarly rated package from the Jays (factoring in AL East vs NL differences between Wood/Stroman) and if so how do these prospects grade out from Cincy?

here's the answer:

Josiah Gray snap shot:
https://redsminorleagues.com/2018/11/27/cincinnati-reds-12-prospect-josiah-gray/

Jeter Downs
https://redsminorleagues.com/2018/11/15/cincinnati-reds-9-prospect-jeter-downs/

I'd trade Stroman and Pillar for those two prospects even though Jeter Downs doesn't seem very exciting. I would expect this type if return as the lowest return the Jays would accept and rightly so...they can probably receive this return next year on Stroman if he has another up and down season. If he is top 10 in pitching like in other years then the FO can finally get their grade A prospect via trade.

I take that as a reminder that we've lost many great posters over the years.

The Reds are also getting catching prospect Kyle Farmer and 7M.

Puig and Kemp are free agents after this year.
Bailey too, effectively.
Wood is under contract for another year.

To me, it looks like the Reds are trying to improve, not to be competitive, but to bring more fans to the ballpark.
I predict they'll try to restock the prospects lost by trading Puig and Kemp at the deadline.

The Reds were bad in 2014 and very bad in the following 4 years. Their system should be well stocked.

I predict they'll try to restock the prospects lost by trading Puig and Kemp at the deadline.

I agree there's a decent possibility of this happening. It reminds me a bit of the Mariners acquiring Edwin, which didn't make a lot of sense to most until DiPoto and Hollander indicated pretty much the next day that they'd be open to flipping him. This was the AGM's quote:

""If we have an opportunity to speed up the timeline on our stepback, we'll do what is best for the Mariners in the long run"

That's exactly what I was hoping the Jays would do, but with pitching since we have so many young position guys that need playing time but question marks in the rotation and the possible departures of Alex/Stro.

Interesting trade. LAD and Reds. Reds also get $7mil. H Bailey may be released by LAD. We will see.

Could the Jays have done something like that. The big contract going to LAD should be Tulo or Martin. If Tulo we send $15 mil to LAD.

If done and Tulo/Martin are not released, my guess is that their salary counts as payroll. If so release. 2 similar prospects go to LAD.

H Bailey already released. 2018 106IP.

This front office wants to be able to have successful players that they can turn around and say - "they were developed through our unique player development implementation process, they have been challenged (insert 3 foundational philosophy big words or regular words that sound better in sequence) physically, mentally, mechanically and fundamentally from a player development process that Ross has worked hard to embrace along with Charlie who's extracted as much as humanly possible any incremental improvements from that development standpoint."

Puig and Wood wouldn't fit that agenda. Did you guys here Shapiro on the radio this week? Talking about how McKinney and some prospects were sent south to do leadership training with a Navy seal? I can see why Tulo would ask for a release if all he wants to do is play and skip the new age front office philosophies. I would rather a front office that invests in skill based tests and programs rather than character.

Puig and Wood wouldn't fit that agenda. Did you guys here Shapiro on the radio this week? Talking about how McKinney and some prospects were sent south to do leadership training with a Navy seal? I can see why Tulo would ask for a release if all he wants to do is play and skip the new age front office philosophies. I would rather a front office that invests in skill based tests and programs rather than character.

Why not both? Why not increase the value of your overall talent base with both leading player-and-development (coaching, facilities, technology etc.) as well as a little bit of short-term salary investment? All the latter does is feed the former with more young players that they might turn into a major leaguer. The former should be a given for any team.

You can't tell me the A's, Rays or Reds have more financial muscle than the Jays. The first two in particular have been impressive with respect to translating budget space into potential prospects.

IMO the A's and Rays have had great GMs for a long time.

They also get little criticism when they trade stars for prospects.

The extra draft picks and budgets are also a big positive.

That would be new if t was Pompey, rather than McKinney.

Following the Santana-Gamel swap, I wonder if Dipoto will manage another trade before Christmas day.
EE and Bruce are two guys begging to be moved.

When I think of the New Age, Crystal and Incense crowd, I definitely think of Navy Seals.

I’m in favor of treating minor league players like real assets and giving them everything they need to succeed. The MLBPA might not care about minor leaguers but if the Jays are giving them as many resources as possible to better themselves (nutrition, mental health, etc), then go for it.

I just think the front office will have a tough time when the likes of Biggio, Vlad, Bo, McKinney, Gurriel are struggling to hit Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Sabathia, Severino, Tanaka, Happ, Snell, etc all...will military leadership training help them to hit elite pitching in AL East? Carrying veterans with elite to above average upside does not preclude the youngsters from doing the same type of training anyway.

Really, I'm over the Tulo ERA (kind of), but as a general note I would have kept JD, Tulo, Martin (even if the latter two were super utility) and traded Pillar, Smoak while punting Travis and Morales. You get leadership, development program and a shot in the dark at contending.

I'm not a fan of bringing the minor league experience to the MLB stadium...

Seattle's GM Dipoto has gone on record to say he is working with a 2 year Timeline for a new competitive team. It will be interesting to me to see the Mariners vs Jays in a retool since they have both offered similar timelines but are going about the retools very differently. My money is on Shapiro because he's got the track record...i just wish it didn't have to be as exciting as watching paint dry...and I thought audio was an expensive hobby.

I think the Navy Seal training is a great idea. There are players with great talent, and players with great character. The best players combine both. Why not try to help your prospects develop both aspects of their skillset?

I also thought it was interesting that Shapiro talked about a study they have done looking at which teams start the season strongly and whether there was a commonality in their use of spring training games. He mentioned St. Louis, and said that they had a system where they would give their regulars a fair bit of work in the first several spring games, then give them basically a week off, then play them a lot in the week before the season started, and treat those games like regular season games, with in-game decisions like pinch hitting and bullpen use being done as if they were regular season games. They seem to be trying a lot of different ideas to get the most out of the players.

I like Smoak as a vet, because he struggled for a long time.

Sources: #BlueJays, #Padres are discussing a Marcus Stroman trade. Here is the story: https://www.mlb.com/news/marcus-stroman-trade-rumors/c-302161196 … @MLB @MLBNetwork

Baez is a Cuban who sits at 95 and reaches 99mph.
Has 4 pitches but needs to improve his command.
Allen is a lefty who came from Boston in the Kimbrel deal.
93mph fastball, changeup and curve.

Those are 2 decent prospects who should be ready to reach before the next year is over.

our front office is an embarrassment.

Both are top 100 prospects.

MLB has Baez at #56 and Allen at #76. San Diego has 2 lefty ahead of Allen, one at #13, one at #46.
That would make him quite affordable and Stroman is a great target for Petco.
NLW isn't an easy division and the Padres have a lot of work to do, but it would be a great landing spot for Stro.

If Morosi is the only source for that rumor, then we can pretty much ignore it.

I must apologies for not writing in. In Hospital after 9 days of puking/NG tube, two MRIs, 4 X-rays, 3 other tests, Surgery and first food two days later. Apparently just the start of it, much more to come. I’m just waiting for the Jays to acquire their #1 young Stud Starter Atkins has been after. Just in case, Merry Christmas/

Get well soon Richard SS.

I like the sounds of that SD deal - I'd hate to lose Stroman but he is high risk now after that poor year last season - one more and he is worthless in the trade market, plus he has just 2 years left before free agency. 2 top 100's for him is a solid deal, not great but solid. I'd prefer a top 50 or top 10 but that isn't likely for a guy who had an ERA over 5 last year (ERA+ worse than Gaviglio - both sub 80). Yeah, the Jays could easily look bad by mid-season in that deal but the future is what matters, not 2019.

Richard, that sounds awful. I wish you health and happiness, especially over the holidays. Feel better.

Get well Richard and Seasons Greetings to get all Bauxites.

The guy I'd like to get from SD is Chris Paddack. I'd be quite happy with a Stroman trade if it was for Paddack and 1 of the Allen or Baez.

Feel better soon, Richard.

Paddack or Baez and Cal Quantrill. IMO

I know Cal has fallen out of the top 100 due to their insane depth but settling for a slightly less regarded second guy for a slightly better regarded first guy is fine by me (plus i have an irrational attachment to the guy and think he'll be quite good)

Two top 100 prospects would be a good get. Stroman might get more value but he will also lose control and he's a good but not elite pitcher so wouldn't see him getting much more than that. Sonny Gray had an extra half year of control and brought back three interesting prospects.

Feel better Richard!

I'm sorry to her that, Richard. Best wishes and I hope your recovery goes well.

Here's a link to some future value numbers put together by Jays Journal. Don't knock the source if they're putting together accurate information:

https://jaysjournal.com/2018/12/23/blue-jays-what-is-a-fair-prospect-price-for-marcus-stroman/

Have a speedy recovery Richard.

https://jaysjournal.com/2018/12/23/blue-jays-what-is-a-fair-prospect-price-for-marcus-stroman/

An important assumption of their valuation is Streamer's projection for Stroman, which is 2.7 WAR. He was under 2 WAR for his first three seasons but had a 5.7 WAR in 2017.

It's probably too optimistic to expect a 5.5+ WAR in 2019 (and unwise to gamble on it) but given his age and a reasonable expectation he's healthy again, I might be inclined to start the season with him, hope that he establishes value in the 3.5 - 4.5 WAR range and see what kind of market develops for him later.

San Diego is in a very similar position on the success curve as the Jays. The question you have to ask yourself is why would they be looking to acquire Stroman (assuming the rumour is true) and the Jays be looking to move him on?

San Diego is in a very similar position on the success curve as the Jays.

Simple. Even though their positions were similar, the Padres feel they are on an upward trajectory, the Jays know they are on a downward trajectory.

Should not the return on Marcus Stroman be at least a better Sean Ried-Foley, same 6+ years control?

My guess is that the Padres (like many teams) are simply exploring whether they might be able to get Stroman at a discount. I would be surprised if teams were willing to give up a lot for him, as he is controllable for only two years and there is uncertainty about his health and level of performance going forward. Like some other Jays veterans (Donaldson, Happ, Osuna, Pillar), Stroman probably should have been moved a year ago. Instead of adding some B+ or A- prospects to the organization, the team has had to settle for salvaging some “interesting” prospects in the trades of those players.

Young pitchers don't always work out. The Padres have 3 or 4 young pitchers set to hit the show in 2019 and the same in 2020. A ground ball pitchers like Stroman would likely work well in Petco. The main risk is health, whereas the risk with young pitchers is that they don't develop fast enough, if ever. Is the Padres rebuild over or do they need to wait another 2 years to start adding MLB talent? Stroman can throw 200 innings while a prospect will probably top around 130 at best.

On the subject, I'm really curious to see what the Yankees will get back for a single year of Sonny Gray coming off a year with an ERA of 4.90. 

I don't know why 2 years of Stroman would bring back less than 2 months of David Price.
Price was having a nice year, but he had a history of bad performances in big games.

The Padres only won 65 games last year. It's safe to say they'd like to do better.
It's more complicated for the Jays. Allen doesn't need to be added to the 40 until fall 2019. Baez, not until 2020.
Whoever would be coming back would not be likely to start in April.

I believe the Jays and Padres FO see themselves a little differently - The Padres who haven't been in the playoffs in some time believe 2019 with some astute additions can be the start of their contention window, while the Jays are basically punting 2019 - also the Jays FO are building a particular kind of culture (whether that's a good thing is another question) and they see Stroman as a "high maintenance" guy and don't want the young guys exposed to the "Stro show" - As I mentioned going into the winter meetings, if the Jays get a decent offer for Stroman they will trade him and move on.

wishing you a speedy recovery Richard S.S - get well soon

I find it interesting that insanely hard-working competitive overachiever Marcus Stroman is bad culture and hated by fans, but lazy underachieving no-intensity mute Aaron Sanchez is good culture and loved by fans.

Popping out of lurkerdom to hope Richard S.S. the best in his recovery.

And indeed, to wish everyone on The Box good health. All of your contributions are read, appreciated, and remembered.

I don't understand the characterizations to be honest, ugly. Especially the culture comments. If anything, Trumper-Sanchez is bad culture and the Liberal-Stroman is good culture. In spite of that, I find myself in the stark minority of Jays fans that prefer Sanchez's future value.

I like Sanchez and Stro both, and don't think we should sell low on either, but TBH, discussing a player's character - or, at least, a perceived failure of character - seems pointless at best to me.  with performance and health, we have stats and an established history. 

with character, we have an established history of how they appear in the media.

Sanchez is a career reliever imo as his finger issue appears to prevent him from throwing a curveball, which he needs as a starter. I would not trade him now and hope for an in season opportunity.

If the SD rumour is true, I would take it. Whether he goes to SD or not, it appears that Stro is being marketed as the Reds have been connected to him as well. With this much smoke, fire cannot be far behind.

I fully expect Stro to be traded in January. Martin and Pillar will be moved as well imo.

I'm fortunate enough that someone in my inner-circle runs with the inner-circle of Stroman. It's very tough to find players that genuinely LOVE Toronto and WANT to play there. Marcus is that guy. He loves Toronto and wants to play his entire career there. You DO NOT trade these players away for meh prospects. You keep them. If you look at the Cleveland model...they didn't trade away their starting pitchers like Kluber, Carrassco, etc.

It's always the "older" baseball people (fans/commentators) that have issues with Marcus. He's a passionate person and outspoken. This is the way baseball is going; look at Harper. The "Old Boys Club" of baseball won't except it, and that's fine, but that's what the future of baseball is...pure raw emotion.

There's two false claims IMHO recently stated in this thread.

1) Padres prospects listed as potential return are excellent prospects in top 100...all equivalent or better than Borucki or SRF.

2) Stroman is the more popular pitcher to fans and it's not even close. I'd put him in top 5 of Toronto athletes currently...dude is constantly in the city and connecting with fans and he's very relateable and tons of fans connect with him.

The idea that Stroman is bad news or even worse, the idea that most fans don't like him is ludicrous. It's like posters read other commenter's posts of the 1% and take it for the norm. Stroman is one of the most respected players not only in Toronto but all of MLB. His performances in the playoffs and World Baseball Classic along with his groundbreaking rehab with Duke to return from injury have all changed the reputation he had as a small whiny arrogant pitcher...for the minority old players and fans that thought that to begin with.

If Marcus Stroman can throttle his ego he can be a fine Mid-Rotation Starter. Aaron Sanchez is a possible Stud Reliever who migh nott be more than a poor #2 Starter.

WANT to play here DOES NOT mean anything while he's under team control.
It would be different if he was sending his agent to the front office asking for a team friendly extension with a full no trade clause.

EE said he wanted to stay in Toronto but turned down a 4/80 offer.
Donaldson said he wanted to stay here but wanted more money than he was worth on the market.
Estrada wanted to be in Toronto and resigned twice.
Happ had no problem signing back with Toronto but never made a ton of noise about it.

And yes, Cleveland IS trying to trade Kluber who is a team friendly contract.

Honestly, I'm not sure why Sanchez got the sponsorship deals with West Jet and Rogers.
I feel we got to see more of him from the ads than from his pitching.

I don't know if Sanchez has more future value. Time will tell. Stroman has more present value and their arbitrated salaries will reflect that.

Ok the lack of posters and Blue Jays news has led me to The Athletic where they offered 50% for the year and I jumped on the $$2.50/month offer. I like this.

I don’t care about the Stroman culture thing. He has passion and that’s a good thing in baseball. I’d like to see more of it not less. However, Stroman is maybe the only major leaguer left on the Jays who would bring back top-100 prospects and won’t be around when the Jays are competitive again. It makes sense to trade him if there’s a good return. If not, you hope he bounces back this year and move him later.

Get well Richard S S. Your posts are quite insightful.

Wishing you the best Richard. Get well soon.

Stroman's competitiveness showed its negatives last year (underwhelming performances and extending issues by excessively trying to avoid DL stints for shoulder and blister troubles), but it has been by far a positive. His public persona is the same - not perfect, but far better than the blandness that most players put forward. If he'd sign a fair-for-both agreement, I'd gladly have him back on a 4-5 year extension. Absent that, though, he'd need to be dealt to aid the rebuild, and his best value is either now or this deadline.

Hope things are progressing well, Richard.

Hadn't given it any thought before, but I wonder if the Sanchez commercial appearances are reflective of a management group trying to curry favour with a difficult agent.

Stroman is a mid-rotation starter, and probably a solid number 2 right now by the numbers. His FIP- last season was 92, which is in line with the previous three years (87-88). He looks like he might have been a bit unlucky on BABIP and LOB%, which would account for some of the variance between ERA and FIP. He may just be a victim of bad defense. Anecdotally, I felt like he was a victim of the big inning the second or third time through the order - which could have been a focus problem or a finger problem.

I don't think of Stroman as having a big ego. I think he's brash/emotional in the heat of the moment, but otherwise, he seems like a well-adjusted, happy, kid.

I generally like Stroman’s passion but like some fans find some of his over the top antics quite annoying. Having said that, I don’t think most fans, me included, dislike him and doubt the FO is putting that much emphasis on his character.

This is a baseball decision. If they can find an agreeable extension with his agent- which could be tough given the volatility in results and health- I suspect they’ll do it. Otherwise he’ll be gone some time in the next year.

Should he have been traded last year? Sure, given the benefit of hindsight. For it to happen at the time, however, the FO would have to have been in full tear down mode which was questionable at the time, as most pundits gave the team, pre season, a shot at the WC.

I hope you're feeling better soon, Richard, and I wish everybody here a good Christmas and all the best for 2019!

Stroman is a good pitcher and will likely be one in 2019 and 2020, but the problem with him is simply timeline. The team does not figure to be good for at least 1 of his 2 remaining seasons, if not both of them. If he agrees to an extension, then that's a different story, but him and maybe Ken Giles (assuming he bounces back to normal) are the only players on the team who might net top 100 calibre prospects. If the FO is all in on the rebuild, then they need to maximize as much value as possible out of players they do not expect to be here when the team is good again.

Sanchez likely has little to no value at the moment so that might be why we haven't heard much about him. I don't think it has anything to do with who the FO likes more.

I think Stroman can be very effective, but I don't think his BABIP is luck driven.
He works mostly in the bottom of the strike zone, so he likes to go inside/outside which  sometimes does not work well with the shift. It's not that difficult for a major league hitter to put a low outside pitch on the ground where there is no defender. Especially if the hitter is a speedy guy with no power or if it's deep in the count and the hitter is chocking.  So basically, I'm more hopeful of seeing an improvement on BABIP than just a random variation.
Also, I'm very eager to see how the defense works next year with the new coaching.

With regards to Tellez, both NYY and Boston are loaded with lefties. It's going to be very hard for Tellez to put good numbers against those guys without a bit of a platoon. It was nice to have 2 switch hitter at the top of the lineup. The Blue Jays young hitters are mostly hitting from the right side.

I saw some videos of Guerrero's winter workouts and it reminded me of when the Hillbillies joined the WWF. Tossing tires around and stuff like that...

If they can get those two prospects, I can understand, but losing Stroman would sure make this team less 'likeable'.

It is a good thing Vladi Jr. seems to be a fun player. Toronto keeps losing their most charismatic players.

To the best of my memory Ryan Borucki was the Jays’ best remanining Starter, no one else was close. He would be my #2 Starter next season.

Richard,

If Borucki is your #2 starter then there are bigger problems. Having success with some pitches and repeating your delivery to both sides of the plate and grinding out 5-6 innings is not #2 material, and in the AL East you're lucky if that type of pitcher will survive a season.

Let's see if he can get through the order twice never mind three times after the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays get to see him 2-3 more times after the adjustments he made with his cutter and slider. I love the guy but he doesn't have the out pitch that Stroman, Sanchez and Estrada had and even Estrada couldn't get by the AL East with his change up after awhile. Borucki doesn't top out or deceive in his delivery to "play up" his fastball like Happ did.

I'll put my money on Reid Foley becoming a #2 starter before Borucki, and I'd peg the chances of RF finding perfect control and changing timing and pitches to not be "caught up to" by opponents...I'd peg those chances at 50% at best over the next 2-3 years.

While we're on Stroman and the Jays current starters...unless they're getting upside #2 talent back or unless they think he can't repeat 3/4 years he's had then why trade him? If you're getting back more players like SRF or Borucki then you're going to have a lot of them in 2 years and you will still need to go out and spend $100-$200 million to get an Ace or real #2 starter. Sometimes it's just easier to admit you have a #2 starter already and resign them. This could be a case of the FO getting too cute and smart for it's own good.

Yeah, I don't understand being a motivated seller giving away players for less than they are worth. I like Stroman's personality and attitude and think his performance has been inconsistent but with still upside, and value even if he never puts it all together consistently at his best. That doesn't seem like something you want to go out of your way to sell. They have repeated this sort of process with Osuna, Donaldson, Tulo, and now seem to be trying it with Stroman. It was totally understandable for Osuna given the off field situation. Much less so for the others. None of them are likely to be disastrous, but all seem like loss of value actions which seems the exact opposite of real asset management actions.

I think Stroman is very good. A #1 or 2, I don't know.

Borucki only 17 ML starts. Lets look at what AJ Burnett and Happ have accomplished in their careers.

I also liked C Janssen. But too fragile to start.

Lastly, how did their AL East (Jays) pitching compare to their other career numbers.

I took Richard's comment as Borucki being OUR 2nd best SP, not him being a #2.

And the FO doesn't seem to be pushing a Stroman trade, as opposed to the Happ, Osuna or JD situations where the FO dealt them for whatever they could get.

Donaldson got a sore calf, blamed it on the Jays training staff, went out to train on his own, came back with a "hanging shoulder" and the other calf gave away and took even longer to heal than the first one.
I don't see that as an asset management problem.

I don't have any problem with the return they got for Osuna.
Kinda weird that they didn't find a taker for Clippard.

Martin is another terrible contract. Realmuto is still available. Cervilli as well. And there's quire a few free agent catchers still unsigned.

And if there is any interest for Pillar, they should pull the trigger now as well.

"That doesn't seem like something you want to go out of your way to sell. They have repeated this sort of process with Osuna, Donaldson, Tulo, and now seem to be trying it with Stroman."

None of these players had remotely similar situations. Anyway, the issue with Stroman is that the longer you hold on to him, the less he's with because of his contract. To get the same value as he would this year, he'd have to have an ace-like year. Possible? Yes but it's quite likely Stroman will never have more value than he does right now.

If Stroman returns to form and stays healthy (two big questions), I would expect his trade value to be higher in July than it is now. The acquiring team would gain fewer total starts from Stroman, but would have greater assurance that he’s a healthy frontline starter.

The buyers in July will be different than now though. If the Padres are interested now, you have to entertain the offer. SD may see an opportunity to get Stroman a new contract now, cheaper than under the scenario where Stroman returns to form for half a season and is acquired at the July deadline.

That’s a big risk for maybe a higher return in a July. It depends who else is available on the market, how many teams are in contention, how much better Stroman performs, etc... even then, you’re talking about probably around the same return. You’re not going to get elite prospects for Stroman. Still, I wouldn’t be forcing a trade because I don’t think his value will likel go way down until after this year but if you get a good offer you take it now.

True — and new buyers may also emerge in July, just as the Cubs emerged as a buyer for Chapman (Torres) at the deadline a few years ago.

There is no way to “win” the current debate. There is only a range of possibilities to contend with. Under some if those possibilities, it would make more sense to trade Stroman now. Under others, it would make more sense to trade him in July (or, perhaps, keep and extend him).

The front office has had to make some judgment calls along these lines over the last year and a half. I think it’s fair to say that its track record in terms of timing the execution of its trades has been mixed at best.

"The buyers in July will be different than now though."

Exactly. The two teams mentioned as being interested in Stroman so far this off-season have been the Reds and Padres. Those two teams may not, and probably will not, be buyers at the deadline. Certainly not for a one year + 2 month starter. The time to sell might be now because the elite teams won't view Stroman as a difference maker, but the bad teams who want to add wins in 2019 may view him more positively. If those buyers no longer exist in July, then a lot will depend on Stroman's performance over the first few months of the season, which is not something I'd want to take a chance on unless forced to since the defense doesn't figure to be very good next year (barring some major coaching improvement from Montoyo & company) and Stroman relies a lot on defense.

I wouldn't believe Morosi if he told me the sun will rise tomorrow, so I'm not even paying attention to this rumor until a more credible source reports it, but if Baez/Allen were a real offer, then I find it hard to imagine the Jays will get any better offers waiting six months. Last winter you could have argued that Donaldson if healthy could have gotten a bit more than Flaherty, but looking back, it was a missed opportunity. We don't know what's available for Stroman now, but the FO has to be clear of what type of players they want and pounce if any teams gives it to them.

“The front office has had to make some judgment calls along these lines over the last year and a half. I think it’s fair to say that its track record in terms of timing the execution of its trades has been mixed at best.”

The only one i think you can really question was not trading Donaldson last off-season. Even then, the Jays had pretty horrible luck with Donaldson being out pretty much all year. This is part of why I wouldn’t mind trading Stroman now, maybe you might get a better return in July, but you also might get nothing. I think extensions are often just fan fantasies. They usually make no sense for either party and the only time they make sense for the team is when the player is willing to settle for less than market value. You think Stroman is going to go for less than market value and give up prime free agency years? I wouldn’t if I were him.

I disagree that Atkins made a bad trade decision. With what options he had, he did very well with those he could trade. Saying he didn’t trade implies he had the option, not always.

Atkins was offered Jack Flaherty and another prospect for Donaldson. He ended up with Julian Merryweather instead.

He was offered what was presumably a premium prospect package from Houston for Osuna during the 2017 season.

Who knows what he was offered for Stroman after the 2017 season?

This isn’t a criticism (or least not a strong criticism). It’s hard to time these things right, and there’s a lot of luck involved. But the “middle path” between attempted contention and rebuilding hasn’t really worked all that well for the team. Shapiro’s instinct was to start rebuilding after 2017; in hindsight, he should have asserted his leadership of the front office and followed his gut.

The problem is, we dont know what offers existed roughly at the time the trades were made. Comparing offers under different circumstances isn't useful and is often misleading. In this case it is valid but it doesn't provide a full picture.Hanging onto Donaldson would've been a calculated risk.I'm generally ok with the results, but until we have more info  most of this comes across as he same ils crotocisma rehashed. I'm just bored already.  move on, cant change things.

Ok lexomatic, what should we talk about instead of the last 6 months of sell off?

- signing of Eric Sogard?
- Dunedin renovation?
- Charlie Montoyo?

Greenfrog's comments regarding low selling of players is not at all misleading. There are articles and summaries out there from reports that specifically list players that were offered to the Jays for Osuna and Donaldson. At that point you should be able to roundly criticize the front office especially considering the potential sell off of more vets with possibly less value.

The Osuna situation was out of the FO’s hands. If he was not in any legal trouble then he would have maintained his value and been traded for a haul in July 2018. Instead the DV situation happened and it sunk his value. All things considered they still ended up doing pretty well.

It’s only the Donaldson trade where they miscalculated their win curve and paid for it by selling at nearly zero value. I wouldn’t include Osuna or Happ in that group. It’s like saying the Jays should have traded Sanchez after 2016. You can reasonably predict future value but there is always bad luck and injuries involved with athletes.

The issue is that the front office tempted fate by hanging on to their movable players, despite having strong offers in hand and knowing that a rebuild was pending. They tried to have it both ways — conduct a perfectly-timed selloff of assets that would allow them to maintain the optics of attempted contention for as long as possible — and it backfired. Even Shapiro admitted (in advance!) he was going against his better judgment by taking a halfway approach in 2018.

As the Bard (Will, not Daniel) said, better three hours too soon than a minute too late. You can make all manner of excuses for them, but the fact is the FO was a minute too late with Osuna and Donaldson — and the same might prove to be true with Stroman, Sanchez, and Pillar.

Yes, the ideal time to rebuild would have been after the 2016 season but that would have been impossible because the Jays had just made the playoffs. Think of how difficult it has been for Jays fans to accept the fact that the 15/16 core wasn't one to build around. People are upset that Tulo who has exactly 0.1 WAR in the last two years was cut on a rebuilding team. Can you imagine if the Jays traded Donaldson, Stroman, Sanchez, etc... after 2016?

“Can you imagine if the Jays traded Donaldson, Stroman, Sanchez, etc... after 2016?”

Exactly. Furthermore selling a tear down to Rogers after record attendance and a team still expected to compete for the wild card would have been extremely difficult.

But I agree with others that they have to keep moving on from vets. Martin, Smoak, Morales, may be Pillar ... not much value keeping any of them. Last year might well have been a middle of the road strategy, but for the tear down they need to be all in.

In retrospect, an appropriate time to start the rebuild would have been in July 2017 (they were 49-57 at the end of that month). At that point, EE was gone, Bautista was in decline, Tulo was a non-factor, the farm needed replenishing, and a rebuild was clearly on the horizon.

By trying to milk another season and a half of improved revenues out of the team’s 2015-16 successful run, the organization lost an opportunity to add quality talent that would have been useful on the next good Jays team.

I’m not saying the choice wasn’t defensible, but in hindsight it was the wrong choice, as the team’s pool of young talent is shallower than it would have been had it accelerated the rebuild by starting earlier. Ultimately, the FO has to own the decisions it has made. What counts in the end are results, not excuses or justifications for decisions made or not made.

The issue with rebuilding in july 2017 is that Donaldson was hurt and not performing and would have been seeming like selling super low. After a great August and September, he had more value this offseason than he did in July 2017 I think.

Yes, that’s why I said start the rebuild in July 2017. I didn’t say *finish* the rebuild that month.

Merry Christmas everyone.

You are correct greenfrog. It is good to know that Shapiro runs everything.

So how good/bad was the revenue for 17 & 18?

On December 25, goodwill to all.  For the Blue Jays front office, a mini-statue of Branch Rickey would be an appropriate gift (I can't imagine you could find a Branch Rickey bobblehead).  Speaking of which, Branch Rickey Henderson Alvarez might be short but it's my favourite of these name strings. 

Merry Christmas everyone. Hoping Atkins has a few presents for us all over the next few weeks.

This isn’t a criticism (or least not a strong criticism). It’s hard to time these things right, and there’s a lot of luck involved. But the “middle path” between attempted contention and rebuilding hasn’t really worked all that well for the team. Shapiro’s instinct was to start rebuilding after 2017; in hindsight, he should have asserted his leadership of the front office and followed his gut.

True, it didn't work. Shapiro said if it were up to him he would've started the rebuild earlier (apparently even after the 2016 season), but I wouldn't be surprised if ownership forced the front office to attempt that middle path.

David Price is the only player acquired by AA/Beeston during the run that is still playing Major League Baseball.

No point just a snapshot I found at The Athletic by Rosenthal.

In retrospect, an appropriate time to start the rebuild would have been in July 2017 (they were 49-57 at the end of that month). At that point, EE was gone, Bautista was in decline, Tulo was a non-factor, the farm needed replenishing, and a rebuild was clearly on the horizon.

By trying to milk another season and a half of improved revenues out of the team’s 2015-16 successful run, the organization lost an opportunity to add quality talent that would have been useful on the next good Jays team.

Agreed with that. I've often thought that the trade deadline in 2017 was when they should have started the teardown/rebuild. Using 20/20 hindsight they could have started in the 2016/17 offseason, but realistically there wasn't any way that was going to happen after back to back ALCS appearances. They would've been crucified by the fan base and I'm quite sure ownership would not have let them do it anyway.

The irony is that, even with all the striving to maximize revenues by half-committing to contending in 2017-18, the team still ended up in a low-payroll situation for 2019 (and probably for at least 2020 as well).

the truth is Shapiro wanted to blow it up the moment he was hired in 2015.

the back to back ALCS appearances were inconveniences for him and his plan.

Seems to be some MMQB going on - when I made the case for starting the selloff in July 2017, I was pretty much on an island by myself as most posters disagreed and wanted the Jays continue trying to "thread the needle", I think some even advocated the Jays should be "buyers" and most posters advocated the don't sell approach last offseason pointing to all the publications listing the Jays as a good bet for a wild card slot in 2018 and saying the jays could sell in July 2018 if needed - well, everything that could go wrong (poor performances,injuries,off the field stuff) did and that left the FO with poor choices - I think they did well given the circumstances but the failure to start the selloff in July 2017 (again, most fans & posters supported that approach) has dealt the rebuild a significant setback and I think that's why the FO will be more aggressive in moving veterans this offseason - yes, Stroman and others can increase their value but it can go the other way again leaving the FO holding the bag again.

True, it didn't work. Shapiro said if it were up to him he would've started the rebuild earlier (apparently even after the 2016 season), but I wouldn't be surprised if ownership forced the front office to attempt that middle path.

I've had the same suspicion, which is basically why I've backed off on my criticisms of the FO specifically. I wouldn't be surprised if that was at the root of the disconnect between how AA saw things evolving and what ownership wanted to do and really wanting leadership that would navigate that direction.

Taking the middle road rarely ends well, in any sport and under any economic system (i.e. soft cap, hard cap or no cap). If ownership puts you on that path fearing fan backlash, you have to make the most out of a short-sighted decision.

What I am a bit surprised is the degree to which the budget has been restricted. With ~$65M committed to non-arbitration salaries, the Jays have waded firmly into tiny-market territory (and that includes Tulo's ~$22.5M sunk cost - thank you to Dan Gordon who highlighted the GAAP implications of Rogers writing that money off in 2018). Even teams like the Rays, A's and M's show willingness to strategically take on shorter-term salary that might convert to prospects or young players. The Jays seem to be strictly interested in stripping things down to their core and waiting, which is an important element of a rebuild but shouldn't be the only element.

In most industries, this would be highly consistent with preparing an asset for sale, which was a rumour that has come and gone over the past couple of years. The strongest indication came from the CFO during an investor Q&A about a year ago:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-sale-rogers-rumours-off-season-plans/

One quote in particular tells me that they would love to figure out some kind of MLSE-type arrangement for the team:

“other ways we can get the exclusive content through renting it, much like we did with our NHL deal. And so, we’re looking at ways to better surface values for the Blue Jays, for example. That’s become a very valuable asset for us that we don’t get full credit for. And so, like some of the other assets on our balance sheet, we’re looking at better ways to surface value for them.”

Rebuilding after 2016 was never an option, and even by the trade deadline in 2017 the team was still doing well in attendance. The bottom needed to fall out before Rogers was going to accept a rebuild, and that is essentially what happened during the 2018 season. Unfortunately waiting that extra 6-12 months before cutting bait cost the team a lot of value. I would have rebuilt last year at this time, but I could understand the reasoning behind trying to extend this another year (from ownership's POV). This is the stuff you have to deal with when a corporate entity owns a sports team. Still, if Donaldson had stayed healthy and Osuna didn't have his legal issues, then the team still would have lost value (with Donaldson), but not nearly as much, and we may be looking at this situation a bit differently.

That is the risk you take by holding on to talent too long, which might explain why Stroman is (allegedly) on the block.

Two wrongs don’t make a right. Just because the team arguably waited too long to trade Osuna and Donaldson (and maybe others like Happ and Pillar and Tepera) doesn’t mean that they should rush to trade Stroman after a down season to try to recoup 50 cents on the dollar. The FO should be bold and decisive, not fearful and tentative.

"The Jays seem to be strictly interested in stripping things down to their core and waiting, which is an important element of a rebuild but shouldn't be the only element."

how is that in any way an important element of a rebuild?

It depends there. If Stroman does not have a good year, than they would have waited too long again.
So, there is a risk.

If the Jays had traded Donaldson at the deadline in 2017, you would have also said they were trading him for pennies on the dollar because his value was lower then than what it was earlier. Nobody is advocating trading Stroman for nothing but if you can get a good return, you do it instead of hoping that the return might be higher later. (which in Stroman's case, it probably wouldn't be because of his contract). Everyone wants to trade high but you never know when that is. How could the Jays possibly know that Donaldson would miss the entire season and that Osuna would be arrested? This might very well be the most trade value Stroman has.

After 1992/93 we had had an old team. Same after 2016/17.

In both cases rebuilds were necessary. Young talent arrived S Green. The same will happen now.

I am quite sure Ash was told to reduce spending.

He and Richardi could not open another window.

AA opened a short window using a big budget, trades for established stars and a handful of good prospects that came up.

A belated Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all Bauxites.

Among my holiday loot, I received both Sandy Koufax's: A Lefty's Legacy by Jane Leavy and The Only Rule Is It Has to Work by Sam Miller and Ben Lindbergh. I'm looking forward to reading both as the dog days of winter turn into spring.

They are only going to trade Stroman for whatever they consider appropriate value. I don't think there is any urgency on their part. The point about waiting too long is no one really knows when the right time to trade someone is. Now could be the right time to trade Stroman since he has two full seasons of control left. If they wait until July, what if he gets hurt? Or performance isn't there? What if performance is there but the number of buyers shrink and the number of sellers increases (adding more SPs on the trade market)? What if teams do not view 1 year and 2 months of Stroman to be worth what he might be worth now? There is no real right answer. Now might be the best time, especially if a team like the Padres with a loaded system and maybe an urgency to improve short-term are willing to overpay.

Holding on to Donaldson was done with the intention of trying to compete for a 2nd wild card spot. Not very smart in hindsight, but it is what it is. With Stroman I don't think there is any real plan. They know they want to trade him but can wait for whatever they consider to be fair value, and then move on from there.

I hope the FO gives some thought to extending Stroman. Not even considering it is thoughtless IMO.

The implication of the way the front office is shopping Stroman is they'll sell him for best offer, regardless of if it is enough. Maybe that's just press spin or an attempt to get more interest, but the Jays are being reported as motivated sellers of Stroman which is what seems crazy. Sure if you get value you can trade anyone, even Vlad Jr should be available for enough right value, but being available for enough value is different than being a motivated seller.

My hunch is that the FO wants a clean slate as soon as possible so that they could expedite the rebuild. Rogers will never approve a long term rebuild so Shapiro likely doesn’t have much longer in the bottoming out process. With that said, I don’t think they’ll trade Stroman for the best offer even if it’s middling. I get the sense that’s what they did with Happ (teams were not giving up top 100 prospects or high upside low minors types so they just went with the best deal they could find) but trading two months of control versus two years of control is different. Being a motivated seller and still holding out for appropriate value is likely where they are.

I tend to agree that Stroman will be traded before the season starts (while Sanchez stays with the hopes of increasing his value). Teams are smart enough to look past Stroman’s ERA. Everyone FO is sabermetric now aside from maybe 1 or 2. It’s Sanchez that likely has no value so holding on to him might be the only option.

how is that in any way an important element of a rebuild?

To clarify, by "core" I meant the group of young guys that will carry the next competitive window. That said, I'm not sure what's confusing - trading off diminishing veterans who still hold value is typical for any team entering a rebuild? The team (again I think this was mostly ownership) butchered the timing, but it was going to happen regardless.

The Osuna Trade only happened because he crossed “the line”. If he kept his nose clean, an extension would be discussed.

The return for Osuna was exactly what Ross Atkins wanted. Ken Giles and David Paulino are on next years ‘ Team. The rest are very close exactly as Atkins chose.

Eventually all these near-MLB/MLB-ready will get their chance, perhaps more successfully than we except.

I see the motivated sellers as being that the Jays checked into an extension but found Stroman and his agent wanted more than they were willing to give. Mix that with an unsettled market where other teams are selling off parts and you want to sell ASAP so you can get a decent return and not be caught like last year with Donaldson. My goal would be 2 top 100 prospects, or one top 25 plus a sub 100 dice roll. Shoot for more but settle for that. If the Jays get that much I'll be impressed as Stroman was really off last year both in health and results.

Yeah, maybe they could get more in July but then you run the risk that Stroman gets hurt or keeps that 5 ERA, either of which results in a crap return or a year of 'lets hope he is good enough for a QO'.

I think the disconnect is probably too great for a trade to happen at this point. Acquiring teams see Stroman as a value play, a chance to buy a flawed product (injuries, some performance/durability issues) with upside. The Jays see Stroman as a pitcher who is controllable for two years and who remains one of the better young SPs in the game, and who should be priced accordingly.

The Padres recently indicated that they are out on Stroman.

Foresight is harder than hindsight. As John has outlined, the reasons for trading Stroman seem to outweigh keeping him, especially to those adverse to risk. The only thing I would add is that if Stroman is traded, who the heck is going to bolster the staff. It won't be good for the morale of the young position players if they face 5 and 6 run deficits after a few innings with the Sam Gaviglios of the world pitching.

"That said, I'm not sure what's confusing - trading off diminishing veterans who still hold value is typical for any team entering a rebuild?"

typical isn't the same as key

the only key part of rebuilding is adding young core assets. that's it.

the ideas of "stripping down" and "waiting" aren't actually a key part of rebuilding at all.

Well you do need a place for those young core assets to play, which is how I understand the "stripping down."

Cole Hamels turns 35 today.  I've never thought of him as a Hall of Fame candidate, but he sits at 56 bWAR for his career and if he pitches well until he's 40, you would have to give him serious consideration.

Nice philosophy John N.

I think a team should have a philosophy on how it is run. The team knows if it is a big, med or small market team.
It has to anticipate where it is on the win curve. The entry to contention requires patience/flexability. In case you are too early. Oakland.

To continue. Team philosophy.

Big teams extends the window. Small teams end it early. Med team ???

You should always try to have a strong farm. Good/bad luck determines much in the drafts. Add to the farm the way St Louis did. Woodman & C Greene. T Thornton.

Lastly stick to your evaluations. Donaldson & Stroman can get a high return if good. So don't settle for less that you want. I agree with UO. Core players are very necessary.

The Starting Rotation depends on who Ross Atkins acquires. Baring the young #1 Stud with 5 or 6 years of control, it’s likely to be bottom of the barrel types filling the Rotation. We can almost guarantee Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki and Marcus Stroman as the top three in the Rotation. That’s just fine.

IMO they will not go bottom of the barrel to fill out the rotation. This is the AL East. Also as another bauxite pointed out they don't want to discourage the young lineup by getting behind early. My guess is another Jamie Garcia level SP.

Right now the Jays are in the middle of a rebuild. Last year was the dream of 'if only xyz goes right we can contend' and 2017 was the year after 2 years of ALCS appearances so you have to assume contending in 17, 18 being the 'lets see if we can get one more year' and 2019 is 'crap, lets clear out anyone who won't be here in 3 years and get the kids time in the majors'. 2020 should be 'lets fill the holes and see if we can contend' while 2021 should be 'ok, those holes weren't filled by player x so we need player y or equivalent to win'. So for long term fans this year is 1982 (getting kids a shot), next is 1983 (might have a great run at some point to get casual fans excited but we will see the big holes that still exist), then comes 1984 (serious contender unless someone does a '84 Tigers) and 1985 (99 wins) and beyond (solid contenders up to 1993 when Gillick pretty much handed control to Ash...sigh).

The kids coming up will fill key spots (CA, SS, 3B by Jansen, Gurriel, and Vlad respectively) in the lineup and rotation (Borucki, Reid-Foley should both be in the rotation Pannone might be too with newbie Trent Thornton having a shot too). Tellez obviously has a shot at 1B/DH if Smoak or Morales are traded/released at some point. Then comes potential call-ups like Biggio, Bo Bichette, and others who are going to make things hard on the decision makers I'm sure (I hope!). 2019 will be a fun year much like 82 was as kids comes up and strut their stuff giving us hope and frustration at the same time quite often.

Btw, the youngest player on the '82 team was 21 year old starter Mark Eichhorn who went back down until 4 years later when he became an insanely good reliever for a bit. Next were a batch of 22 year olds such as Jim Gott, also a starter then who later became a good closer for a bit for someone else, Jesse Barfield with a historically great arm in RF who was a key piece of the 80's teams, Geno Petralli who was a good catcher for awhile for Texas, and Lloyd Moseby in his 2nd year in the majors as a hotshot kid who would be another solid piece of the 80's great teams. So a few parallels with a super-prospect at shortstop pushing his way up in the minors at the time by the name of Tony Fernandez. The pen was the big issue in '83 and '84 fixed by a kid named Tom Henke in '85 even though the Jays traded 2 key everyday players to get a closer (Bill Caudill) who flopped. Will we see the same this time? Only time will tell.

Thanks John N for the trip down memory lane.

I was thinking if we had 2 great offensive players, how should we line them up?

Examples Manny/Ortiz.. sluggers no defense. Olerud/G Brett. R Henderson/V Coleman .. speed!! Defense??

The Jays have signed William Gaston RHP 6'5" from Cuba dob 5/19/1996. So experienced/old. May move fast.

Jays sign Shoemaker.

Thanks pubster.

Matt Shoemaker? Cannot find info on him. I can wait for the details.

So dalimon5 guessed right, we got one of the guys off his list.

Matt Shoemaker is 2 seasons removed from his last good season with the Angels. Seems like a good pickup.

His k/9 and bb/9 stats look pretty good. However, he's been injured the last couple seasons.

According to mlbtraderumors, he is making between $3 to 3.5 million. His last two seasons were limited due to forearm strains. If he bounces back, the Blue Jays would have control through to 2020.

Hopefully there is one more signing for the pitching staff. Then if they trade Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez at some point in 2019, they will not be in a tough situation.

Good call Marlow. Arb?

Shoemaker pitched well when he came back from injury in September, and was really good in 2016. Health is the biggest concern with him, but the ratios are good and velocity remained the same upon his return. On top of that the deal is cheap plus there is an extra year of arbitration for 2020. Don't see any downside.

Shoemaker had nerve irritation issues last season and then had surgery to correct it. As mentioned he came back to pitch in September.

Shoemaker threw 30ish innings last season. So they still need a few more starting pitchers.

I'm surprised they were able to sign him for less than his arb numbers. At that price I don't really see the downside. He has the SO ability and splitter to be moved to bullpen if necessary as well and then sold off. Don't see why other teams in pitcher parks didn't take a look at him. Rays would have been perfect with their opener strategy.

There's gotta be another SP signing coming soon. Someone around the talent level of Shoemaker with less upside but durability.

Shoemaker is a NICE pick-up!

Could be a nice pickup especially with an extra year of control with no commitment - enthusiasm tempered by the fact that the Angels who know his medicals best won't commit to about 4.3m (arbit. estimate) or that other teams didn't bid higher - hope it works out better than Jaime Garcia.

Exactly the types of pickups they should be making. Probably won't work out but low cost for someone who is a good pitcher when healthy. Apparently he has a horrible sinker which he needs to stop using but he has good stuff in general.

I think there is some potential here for this to be an ok deal, but there is a high probability he gets the DFA treatment at some point this year due to either injury or ineffectiveness. At the very least Shoemaker buys some time for the younger guys like Murphy, Perez, Zeuch, SRF, Thorton, Pannone who are the more likely candidates to round out the rotation by the end of the year.

Not a bad shot to take at a guy who can outperform his contract. It really just comes down to his health.

On that note, I'm sure they'll be looking at other names on this list given how little Shoemaker has pitched and how many innings the Jays will need covered (especially since it's looking likely Stroman and/or Sanchez will be moved). https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-free-agents/c-293292274

J Garcia averaged about 164 IP over 2016 and 17. So a good gamble at $8mil/yr. Obviously worked out badly.

At the time, Jamie Garcia seemed like a good signing. Maybe he did not have the temperament to handle the AL East?

From the lists, three names are interesting. Drew Pomeranz and Wade Miley pitched in the AL East. Shelby Miller has enough interesting upside even after the years with injury. Hopefully the promise of a starting spot will be enough to entice one of those to come to Toronto.

As someone said previously, the Blue Jays need to have half decent pitching, otherwise the perpetual losing will get to the players.

When I look at the 1982 to 1984 rosters, The pitching staff was filled with a lot of players in their mid 20s to late 20s. It would be good for the team to target players in that age group.

I do not think that catching lightning in a bottle works strategy works very well for pitching, and most chronically injured pitchers stay as such. If the Jays are going to get better in the pitching department it will be from becoming more creative with the use of their pitchers or from a younger pitcher who takes a leap from one off-season to the next.

I have a lot more faith that one of the younger pitchers really shows up in spring training circa Aaron Sanchez in 2016, than if Shelby Miller suddenly became healthy again.

There may not be a need to sign another FA pitcher other than to a minor league deal. It is possible, pitching will come back in a trade. I expect at least 2 trades, maybe 3 in January.

In other news, Dalton Pompey is going join Team Canada and to head off for Pan Am qualifiers Jan 29 to Feb 3.

His situation is rather confusing. Back in March, John Lott said he would need to have carpal boss surgery in the offseason. Now we read that he is going to Pan Am qualifiers.

I done a quick search on the Internet, if he did have surgery, it should take about 1 month for basic movements, 4 months for the wrist to be at least functional, with some soreness.

Does anyone know if he actually done the surgery? When I look on his twitter account, there is nothing mentioned about it, rather some cryptic comment with no context, about 'don't let anyone tell you how to live your life.'

Shoemaker had a very good season when he first made the big leagues in 2014 at the age of 27. Since then, he has been mediocre if you consider the park effects. He has pitched his entire career in a very good pitchers' park. Have a look at his home/road splits to get a better picture of his ability. His career ERA on the road is 4.64 and his road WHIP is 1.248, with only 6.9 K's per 9 IP. Even his 2014 season is somewhat suspect, as he was amazing at home, but not all that good away from the comfy confines of Angels Stadium. Interesting that some people have mentioned Jaime Garcia, because Garcia's career road ERA is EXACTLY the same as Shoemaker's and his career K/9 on the road is also EXACTLY the same as Shoemaker's. With his road ERA at 4.64 and playing the rest of his games in Toronto, with so many games vs the East teams, and his age (32), I would expect Shoemaker's ERA to be about 5.00 or slightly under. Hopefully he stays healthy and does a little better than that and they can trade him for a low minors prospect at the deadline.

The guy I'd like to see the Jays pick up is Buchholz, who has a career road ERA of 3.62. Pomeranz would be a nice add. Miller has been hurt, and terrible when he's pitched, for 3 years, but was good prior to that, so the question is whether or not there is reason to believe he may be able to recover his pre-2016 form. With Miller, you also have to make allowances for the pitchers' park in St. Louis his first 3 seasons.

xWOBA by Year:

Shoemaker:
2015 - 0.302
2016 - 0.319
2017 - 0.342
2018 - 0.354

Jaime Garcia:

2015 - 0.274
2016 - 0.311
2017 - 0.327
2018 - 0.337

In a nutshell Statcast doesn't paint a good pitcher of either pitcher moving forward.Typically pitchers who give up the hard contact Shoemaker does, get absolutely shelled in the AL east.

Thanks Shoeless Joe. Maybe he got signed as a reliever.

I don’t think anyone should be expecting him to be a key part of the rotation but the deal is cheap, pretty much devoid of any risk, and has some upside if he stays healthy/maintains his peripherals. Garcia was a solid signing that failed but didn’t cost the Jays anything except what he was owed in 2018. Same applies here, to a much lesser degree in terms of $. Maybe you get something decent out of this, or maybe he bombs completely. Either way it’s not much in the way of risk.

Plus with the extra year of control the Jays can try him in the bullpen if he fails in the rotation.

In a rare moment of boredom I went to MLB Top 100 Prospects list and looked at the Top 25. There were three hit tools 70 or more. Vlad (The Impaler) Guerrero was 80. Bo (Batta Bing Batta Boom) Bichette was 70 and a 23 year old 3b/2b Nick (Nuff Said Bout Dis Stiff) Senzel.

Just sayin.

Reminds me of the Gavin Floyd signing. They are taking a chance that a guy who hasn't been healthy is. Or at least healthy enough to warrant the modest contract. This, hopefully,  prevents the Jays from graduating a  pitching prospect who hasn't earned it. At the same time, I don't think anybody expect Shoemaker to block anybody for long.

It feels like they don't expect to trade Stroman before the season starts.

Seems odd to sign Shoemaker and release Tulo. Both injured players with potential upside and If you're willing to eat 38 million... what's another 3 months of playing the injured vet on recovery gonna cost you? 3 months of Devon Travis who has more team control and has been injured or ineffective just as much?

I read the John Lott piece in the Athletic and the highlight reel video of Shoemaker...exciting pitcher.

Exactly, with the Shoemaker-Tulo comparisons. When people here say at that price, what could go wrong with hoping for upside from someone who was once good but has health questions. The same thing will be said with Tulo when he signs for some team for major league minimum. And what the Jays are paying him is sunk cost since they are paying him regardless of if he pays for the Jays or elsewhere, so if they kept him, it would be like the upside is all free, since the marginal cost is zero.

Which isn't to say I'm against the Shoemaker deal. It makes sense to me to try a few "low cost-low expected value-but possible high upside" type deals in hoping something works out.