Mark Budzinski, late of the Cleveland Indians, has been named first base coach.

As mentioned in the other thread, the Jays definitely did Donaldson a favor. Had a qualifying offer been involved and a pick in the balance, then the Braves may not have been as interested, especially since they had an internal option at third already. As is, a 1/23 deal for Donaldson has very little downside for the Braves. If he bounces back, then they can give him the QO or re-sign him. If he has another injury plagued down year, then it was only a one year deal so long-term harm. AA inherited a gold mine in Atlanta. They have a surplus of high upside prospects even after graduating a few of them last year, and money to spend.

I remember when we trades Donaldson I claimed a Q/O for Donaldson was a no brained as a one year deal at qualifying option price would be good value. I think the Atlanta deal proves that clearly.

Interesting numbers: Montoyo, Hudgens, Walker, Martinez, Budzinski & Buschmann have a combined 3 hits in their ML careers.

Good luck to JD, he was amazing as a Jay but I also agree with the FO move (albeit a year later than I advocated) - not surprised he ended up in Atlanta , personal relationships matter - I would guess that Johan Camargo must not be a happy camper coming off a very encouraging year.

Would be fun if the Jays claimed lefty Adam McCreery who was designated to open a spot for JD.

Charlie Montoyo - Manager: .400 .400 .600, 4G, 5AB, 2H, 1-2B, 3RBI. (Minors: .266 .404 .357, 1028G 3340AB.)
Dave Hudgens - Bench Coach: .143 .143 .143, 6G, 7AB, 1H. (Minors: .264 .344 .461, 672G, 2200AB.)
Matt Buschmann - Bullpen: 0-0 2.08 3G, 2GF, 4.1 IP, 2H, 1R 1ER, 1HR, 1BB, 3K. (Minors: 92-79 4.20 307G, 239GS, 1468.2 IP, 1503H, 511BB, 1189K.)
Mark Budzinski - 1B Coach: .000 .000 .000, 4G. 7AB. (Minors: .274 .359 .397, 1235G, 4450AB.)

Johan Camargo plays 2B, SS, 3B and might get tried at LF, CF. He will probably get regular at bats relieving Josh Donaldson, Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies. Or he gets traded.

Josh Donaldson gets to play on grass with a young, hot Team on the rise. He's playing with a GM who will resign him in a heartbeat if his year is solid to near MVP caliber or better.

It's not that AA would have passed on Donaldson if he cost a pick, because they're a revenue-sharing recipient. It's the other way around. Because the Jays never offered Donaldson a QO, the Braves will be able to do so and for them it will be a pick in the 31-38 range (estimated) rather than the 75-80 range pick the Blue Jays could have gotten.

It's a classic AA gamble.

"I remember when we trades Donaldson I claimed a Q/O for Donaldson was a no brained as a one year deal at qualifying option price would be good value. I think the Atlanta deal proves that clearly."

Not at all because if the Jays don't trade him, he probably doesn't rush back and probably doesn't play another game in 2018 which would have knocked his value down.

A one year QO deal for a rebuilding Jays team versus a 1/23 deal for the Braves who plan on contending are two entirely different scenarios. The Braves also have the ability to give Donaldson the QO after 2019, an option the Jays would not have had if they gave it to him after 2018. Meaning the only value Donaldson had to the Jays in 2019 (had he accepted a QO) was as a trade chip in July, which as we saw this past summer isn't necessarily a high value scenario.

This was a bungled up situation. In hindsight, Donaldson should have been traded either at the 2017 deadline or prior to the 2018 season. I understood why they held on to him, but hopefully it's not a mistake they will repeat in the future.

And now the Jays have Oliver Drake. Uh... yay?

Given Mark Budzinski's history with Ross Atkins, I'm going to assume Budzinski will be Atkins "inside guy" on the coaching staff. Happy to see younger coaches in Buschmann, Martinez and Duncan - It was time for Dane Johnson to move on - won't be surprised if his son prospect Cobi Johnson is traded as usually happens when an organisation fires the father.

I don't think many teams were as interested as they could be in Donaldson. If they were then he could have signed a multi year deal. It's shocking to me how fast star elite players can lose their value in this league when past 30 due to injury or age - Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Bautista, many others around the league.

We will see if the Jays trade Smoak this winter as his value should never be higher than right now. He has one year at a very good price left, he has 2 solid ML years in now after many 'meh' years. If you are a contender needing a solid guy at 1B or DH he would be a good choice right now. No real value waiting for a deal as he is who he is and it should be well known now plus with his contract he won't hurt any contenders budget. The Rockies jump out at me as a contender who could use him (their 1B was Ian Desmond who had an OPS+ of 83, their #2 was Ryan McMahon who hit worse. Desmond is owed another $15 mil this year, $15 in 2020, $8 in 2021, $2 mil buyout for 2022 (what idiot signed that deal? If he was still at SS maybe, but at 1B he is a massive waste of money).

Donaldson getting 1 year at $23 mil is a decent 'make good' deal. Hope for AA's sake that Donaldson has a few good years left in him. His ex-Jay last year (Bautista) didn't do so well.

Count me in the camp that thinks Smoak will be traded this winter, even if the return is underwhelming. After the Diaz trade I get the impression anything not nailed down will be traded off for prospects.

I will vote against him being traded. Only because he was already passed through waivers in August unclaimed which meant no team was interested enough to even negotiate a trade heading into the final month of the season.

I think the Jays need to trade prospects that they don't think will succeed in order to get better players back. So, for example, trade quantity for potential quality of another teams prospects since our farm is quite populated.

I don't think that Smoak will be traded either.

Am I the only one that thinks Cal Quantrill is a nice upside candidate to target in trade (all Canadian relations aside)?

I would do Stroman straight up for Cal to get more years of control on a starter looking to be a top 4-5 (in the rotation) pitcher in the league with some upside to become a Stroman level pitcher (amazing#2/3).

It would have been nice to get Whitely from Houston for Osuna which is likely what they price would have been before the stock dropped on Osuna.

Can you imagine if our team followed BlueJayWay's advice a year ago and traded Donaldson and Osuna for Forest Whitley (Hou) and Flaherty (STL)? Our farm would be as good as the Rays!

I haven't seen him, but it definitely seems like you're the high guy on Quantrill. He's not a piece I'd be uninterested in, but he wouldn't be a front-piece in a Stroman trade, for me. There's the injury history, and it sounds like his stuff has backed up a bit as a pro.

@johnnorthey Agreed on the Rockies as a good trade match. They have immediate holes at 1b and 2b, and uncertainty at 3b given Arenado is a year from being a FA. Smoak, Drury....

Does no one pay attention to the Free Agent Market? First Baseman have no value, too many are available.

I

I don't agree. CJ Cron's release by the Rays was pointed to by some as supporting your statement but otherwise (and ignoring that he got scooped up near immediately) the 1B free agent class is very weak. There are lots of trade options (Goldschmidt, Sanata, Bour etc) but given the cost in both dollar/years, and a likely very light return required, Smoak is very well positioned to find a home.

I must disagree, Justin Smoak has little to no trade value on his own. We have always overvalued our own Players, but to value our Players by what other Teams do makes little sense. On the other hand, by staying he protects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for one special year by being a scary bat hitting behind him and with his solid 1B defense.

I don't think they get anything for Smoak now. There's too many guys who could be around 2 WAR and will cost less.
If Smoak has another good year, he's probably in demand at the deadline, because many 1B type will have bad years.
If he's not having a good year, then he's worthless, but it's a good gamble to take.  They can pay his salary at the deadline, but it would make little sense to pay his salary now just to get a C prospect back.

As time passes, I'm less sure about the direction this Team is going. An astute acquisition could solve Starter/Rotation problems for three or more years.

If Smoak is traded for more than a basket of peaches, I owe you a whiskey.

I remember when we trades Donaldson I claimed a Q/O for Donaldson was a no brained as a one year deal at qualifying option price would be good value. I think the Atlanta deal proves that clearly.

I completely agree. JP Morosi was on The Fan today talking about the oft-repeated saying among MLB GMs that the's no such thing as a bad 1 year deal. There's no salary cap. You don't have to match dollars if you decide to unload a player like JD midseason and there's a handful of teams to try and wrestle something better than Julian Merryweather if that's the direction you want to go.

The FO has made some decent moves but selling perhaps their top trade chip at his lowest value will continue to age poorly IMO.

"You don't have to match dollars if you decide to unload a player like JD midseason and there's a handful of teams to try and wrestle something better than Julian Merryweather if that's the direction you want to go."

Yes, but it's not that simple. Mike Moustakes brought back a 4th OFer prospect last year. Would the Jays be able to get something more than Merryweather if they kept Donaldson? Probably, but not by a large margin. The market for 3Bman is small and the supply is large. It's investing $19M, blocking prospects and development time from players who might be part of your future all to get a slightly better but still not very good, prospect. The Jays should have traded him in the off-season but not giving a QO makes sense.

"I don't agree. CJ Cron's release by the Rays was pointed to by some as supporting your statement but otherwise (and ignoring that he got scooped up near immediately) the 1B free agent class is very weak. There are lots of trade options (Goldschmidt, Sanata, Bour etc) but given the cost in both dollar/years, and a likely very light return required, Smoak is very well positioned to find a home."

I am sure someone would take Smoak but by giving like a #25 system prospect. Almost every team has a 1Bman (how many contenders need a 1Bman?) already and there are plenty of guys on the market. Guys like Bour and Adams are available for nothing. Daniel Murphy is available. Phillies would pay a team to take on Santana, etc...There just isn't a market for good, not elite, 1Bmen anymore.

It was time for Dane Johnson to move on -

Dalimon, why do you say that?

I have no idea if Johnson was a particularly good or bad bullpen coach (or, perhaps more likely, he was fine, but also replaceable), and I understand why the front office let Montoyo replace him with someone who Montoyo is more familiar/comfortable with. However, I don't have the certainty to say that Johnson's approach or pitching philosophies had somehow become outdated such that it was time for the club to replace him.

Your comment seems to be saying that, independent of Montoyo wanting his own men on the staff, the club should have gotten rid of Johnson and I was curious what that's based upon.

In other coaching news, the Jays promoted John Schneider to the position of major league coach, with an emphasis on developing catchers. The club appears to have confirmed that the Field Coordinator position, which will be filled by Shelley Duncan, will replace the Quality Control position formerly held by Mike Mordecai.

It appears that both DeMarlo Hale and Mordecai will have roles in the organization in 2019, if they choose to accept.

They still need to find a title for Schneider. Quality control sounds like the guy responsible for mending tears in the equipment. Designating a coach to catching hints at moving Russell Martin.

I think people are going to be very disappointed with the return if/when the Jays trade Smoak. A player is only as valuable as the market dictates, and 1-2 win 1B/DH types are simply not valued in the league anymore.

Thomas,

It's 85BlueJay that made the comment about Dane Johnson, not I.

I am very happy about J Schneider being on the ML coaching staff. I heard him speak to K Barker and his partner about coming up to the Jays in Sept to look around, help out. He was not specific. He sounded nice, said good things about his NH players. 2 championships in a row is V good as well. IMO he has a chance to one day be a ML manager.

I agree with Nigel's about too many 1B/DH players on the team being a bad thing. So 12/13 spots on the roster for position players. How many is too many do the bauxites think.

Here is a small list of 1B/DH type of players. I remember Kirk Gibson hitting a HR to win the WS for LAD. Bucky Dent against Montreal? Old guy I believe. Joe Carter also an old guy against Phillies? So playoff success with old guys with a lot of hitting experience. I am cherry picking I know. But 1B/DH players should know how to have a good AB. Work the count, don't chase etc... They should also not break the bank. S Pearce.

We had 3 in 2017 and 2018. K Morales, J Smoak. S Pearce and probably J Bautista.

Here is a small list of 1B/DH type of players... Bucky Dent against Montreal?

You must be thinking of someone else. Bucky Dent was a light hitting shortstop who hit a memorable homerun off Mike Torrez. That earned Bucky an honorary middle name starting with the letter F.

Rick Monday?

Rick Monday. Thanks Chuck.

Ack, Rick Monday ! It still hurts to see or hear that name !

For Smoak I'd be happy with a B level prospect (top 11-20 level here, even 21-30). Just need to free up salary space and roster space right now. As to 'easy to get' stuff, remember Colorado's regular at first had an OPS+ under 90 - Think about that. Russell Martin outhit their guy at 1B. Their 4 others used at 1B were even worse when at first, OPS of 631, 360, and two 0's. In Colorado where hitters normally shine. Collectively they hit 232/314/405. At 2B (another big hole) they hit 265/311/409. Maybe they'd be interested in Smoak/Travis as a pair. Travis hit worse last year but career is still 274/314/437 and that is here in Toronto, not in the 'wow' hitting environment of Colorado.

Couldn't hurt to try. A contender with 2 clear holes and the Jays have guys to fill those holes who we don't need. They might want Tellez/Gurriel but no way I see the Jays trading Gurriel. Tellez they would for the right package but I suspect Smoak is far higher on the 'we would like to get rid of' and easier to sell to a contender.

Again I see it as more clearing space for the future. I want to see if Tellez is for real/useful for a contending team in 2021, same with Gurriel, Urena, Drury, etc. Anyone with 2 years or less of control needs to be traded to make room for those with more than that left at this point or signed to an extension, or need to be seen as a useful part to fill gaps until 2021. And yes, I include Sanchez and Stroman on that list. Next winter for those with 2 years left is the deadline - no more Donaldson situations please.

They still need to find a title for Schneider.
He's the designated good old boy. I hear he's never meaning no harm.. And it's quite unlikely for him to ever make the acquaintance of an RCMP officer..
(sorry, just had to say it, tongue firmly in cheek, obviously)

"Ack, Rick Monday ! It still hurts to see or hear that name !"

Yep, it just makes ya Blue.

Here is an article on the rationale behind some of the coaching changes:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/data-revolution-behind-blue-jays-dramatic-coaching-overhaul/

BlueMonday - Wednesday, November 28 2018 @ 04:52 PM EST (#368156) #
"Ack, Rick Monday ! It still hurts to see or hear that name !"

Yep, it just makes ya Blue.

Hi long you been waiting to make that post BlueMonday?
#awesome

Ack!...."how" long...

Jays have now signed 39 IFA's so far

https://www.mlb.com/player/pedro-acosta-684043

time for a second DSL team?

Just promote aggressively lol.

Thanks, budgell. I'm mainly a 'lurker', but it seemed like the right time to comment. Plus, I was just reading Jonah Keri's book 'Up, Up and Away". For those interested, I think it's the definitive history of the Expos. Particularly, an excellent summary of Game 5 of the 1981 NLCS vs. LA. I forgot it was supposed to be played on Sunday, but was rained out, thus the game ended up being 'Blue Monday' for 2 reasons.

Jeff Passan is reporting that the Jays have “discussed trading Russell Martin” and “are willing to pay down a significant amount” of the $20M he has left on his deal. Not surprising. Jansen is going to be the everyday catcher and Martin could start on a number of playoff teams. It would help the rebuild and be doing Martin a favor at the same time.

The question becomes:
"What is Russell Martin worth on a one year deal?"
The secondary question is:
"What/who do the Jays want back in return?"

Its a good question what to do with Martin. He has been from all we've heard a solid player behind the scenes and is well liked. The Jays need to be delicate with this case. Clearly it is best for all involved for Martin to go to a contender. Ideally one in a location he wants to be. He was drafted out of Florida so Tampa might be good for him, especially if the Jays pay his salary although that would be hard as they are in the AL East. Atlanta might work as their #1 catcher was Kurt Suzuki who is now with Washington, Tyler Flowers was their #2 and has cracked 2 WAR only twice in his 10 year career. Others used were Carlos Perez (-10 OPS+), Chris Stewart (AAAA guy in late 30's), and Rene Rivera (also in 30's and AAAA). I'd say they could use Martin, plus AA is the guy who signed him here so I suspect he'd love to get him back. A quick look at their minors doesn't show any catcher close to the majors who has any bat either.

Apparently, Jays wanted two top-100 prospects for Stroman last deadline. Really hope he rebounds this year. Jays have had so many players lose value over such a short period, it's almost silly. Jays will likely have to lower asking price as well as contracts are now extremely important in trade and Stroman only has 2 years left on his deal. Jays will try to trade Martin of course. He still has some value to the team but not so much as to justify taking away playing time from younger players.

If Martin is traded for a prospect who needed protection but wasn't put on the 40 by the deadline, can the Jays protect that prospect from the rule V draft?

Alternatively, trading Martin frees a roster spot, if all they're getting is a prospect who does not need protection.

Of course the Jays would want to trade Martin and of course they should eat a lot of salary. It is the 'he could help a lot of playoff teams' part I disagree with.

He can't hit and he isn't as good behind the plate as he used to be. Why should a team want a below-replacement player?

I am a big fan of Russell Martin, but he is done.

Hopefully there is a team out there that disagrees.

Martin still had an a good OBP (.338) and handles pitchers well. Yes, his skills have regressed but he can still be of help to a contender even if in a part time role. Being able to play the IF does not hurt his value either. He should be tradeable as long as not much in the way of return is expected.

Late in the season a few veteran Bauxites extolled the virtues of "veteran presents" and their impact on the '19 Jays w/r/t Russ Martin. I disagree then, and now. For as much value he brought the Jays during their playoff runs, he just doesn't fit on a rebuilding roster, especially since the Jays have some depth at catcher. The Jays could sign a Hank Conger or Bobby Wilson for insurance.

I think it's likely (regardless of Passan report) he's traded before many other decisions are made this off-season.

Among catchers with 300 PAs or more last year, Martin's 91 wRC+ ranked 16th out of 27 catchers.   As for defence, he's below average at throwing but still good at framing.  You wouldn't want to count on him to catch more than 100 games in a year. 

Why should a team want a below-replacement player?

Pretty well no one other than you considers Martin as below replacement level. Neither Bbref or FG do. FG does have Jeff Mathis as below replacement level, and both sites agree Martin was the better catcher last year. Rangers recently signed Mathis for 2 yrs/$6.25 mill.

Yeah, I wouldn't have signed Mathis either.

As said, I hope some other team considers him to still have value. On THIS team, he is just in the way.

Right now anyone who is not going to be here in 2021 is 'in the way'. Even if you are a HOF level player in their prime you aren't going to help the Jays win in 2019 unless Vlad comes out like A-Rod did, the pitchers (especially Stroman & Sanchez) are healthy, and everyone else either improves or doesn't regress. I suspect you have a better shot at the lottery than all of that happening. Well, maybe not but the odds are low.

Via Cot's the Jays who could leave as free agents after...
2019: Martin, Morales, Smoak
2020: Stroman, Giles, Pillar, Grichuk, Sanchez, Tulo ($4 mil buyout or $15 mil salary for 2021)
2021: Travis, Drury, Tepara
2022: Biagini, Barnes, Maile, Oliver Drake (recently picked off waivers)
2023: Teoscar Hernandez, Gaviglio, Pompey (in theory if they are never in minors again)

Obviously no one is going to think twice about the 2022/2023 crowd. It is 2019/20/21 the Jays need to think about. Would you offer any of them a long term deal so they last until 2022 at least (get 2 years of contending team out of them)? Maybe most of the post-2020 free agent crowd but only if they sign cheaper than I expect they would. None of the 3 2019 crew should be resigned for 2020 and beyond outside of maybe Smoak if he has a really good 2019 and even then only for 3 years absolute max. I suspect the current GM and crew know not to sign anyone past age 35 except on one year deals unless you have data up the wazoo saying they won't fall apart.

Mike - agreed we don't know what 2019 and 2020 and beyond will bring but, for now, it is reasonable to assume the Jays won't contend in 2019 or 2020 as the team is restructuring the lineup and pitching staff. That rarely goes easily or works perfectly right away.

I'm hoping for a similar situation to 1982 this year - kids get shots and start to show their stuff, core of a contender put together. Then real shot in 2020 like 1983 but coming just short with the team looking for real in 2021 and making it in 2022 with strong showings for a decade after. Hey, it is a nice dream eh?

Catchers Danny Jansen, (23) 81 AB, .247 .347 .432; Luke Maile (27) 202 AB, .248 .333 .367: and Reese McGuire (23) 31 AB, .290 .333 .581 are the present and the long term future. Rising star Jansen is seen as the Jays' #1 Catcher. Maile is a strong and very capable backup. McGuire will most likely be the #1 C in Buffalo. It's possible he's better than both.

Russell Martin (35) 289 AB, .194 .338 .325 is still a viable but declining talent/asset. He's just one of four Catching options for the Jays, perhaps the fourth best option. If clearing a roster space is the priority, then consider him gone. If moving him has any other reason, it will take longer.

Randal Grichuk, Kevin Pillar, Teoscar Hernandez and Billy McKinney are the Outfield. This is at least an upgrade over last year's group (natural improvements and replacing underachievers).

Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki and Kendrys Morales might be better than expected. Danny Jansen and Luke Maile should be an upgrade. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Devon Travis and Brandon Drury should better and could be very good.

The Jays won 73 games with a lesser version of this Team. Next year's version will be better, possibly much better. Generational Player, ROY, MVP, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on the Roster soon, very soon. How many more games could this Offense win?

Ken Giles is an upgrade on last years absent Closer. Tim Mayza had a break out in the second half. Ryan Tepera will be fine again, perhaps better. The Bullpen will be better than last year's as it's now a priority. In-season options will be better.

Ryan Borucki will be an upgrade on Estrada. Almost anyone will be an upgrade on Garcia. Aaron Sanchez should be well past finger and blister issues and know what to do to be better. Marcus Stroman should be healthier at Season's start and will pitch with better confidence. I don't know who replaces Happ, that might take a while.

The Jays got better by those who left. They got better with in-house alternatives. They will get better by new additions. I expect about 85 Wins, maybe a few more, maybe a few less. Last year's WC win totals were more of an outlier than the norm.

Are the Jays trying to sign Solarte before the non-tender deadline?

I'm guessing no.

I hope not.

Thinking about the Jays of 2021...
CA: Jansen/McGuire
1B: Tellez
2B: Gurriel
SS: Bo Bichette
3B: Vlad Guerrero
LF: Billy McKinney
CF: Forest Wall (least confident here)
RF: Cavan Biggio
DH: Could be anyone

Rotation: Reid-Foley, Borucki, Nate Pearson, TJ Zeuch, Jordan Romero, Eric Pardinho, Pat Murphy, Hector Perez, etc.

Really a pure crapshoot at this point for pitchers. I won't even try to guess the pen. Heck, most of the lineup is completely up for grabs at this early stage. Just my feeling for it at this stage.

Is there a stranger front office in major league baseball than the Mets? Signing Brodie Van Wagenen was strange enough, but this Cano trade is just perplexing. They are giving up two very good prospects, and a younger player in McNeil to get older, more expensive and marginally better?

That is bizarre and good on Seattle. Get younger, maybe even better while reducing payroll. Putting an agent as GM seemed dumb and I suspect in a few months will look really dumb. Hopefully the Jays can find something the Mets want and trade him to them for dollars on the penny :)

The report on mlb.com indicates the main player the Mets would be getting is Edwin Diaz, who is one of the best relievers in baseball, maybe THE best, and isn't a free agent until 2023. The Mets would be shedding the bad contracts of Bruce (2 years at $14 M and Swarzak, 1 year at $8.5 M), to help make up for taking on Cano's deal. And Cano is still a terrific player, putting up 3.2 WAR in half a season last year. His slash line of .303/.374/.471/.845 was hurt by Safeco, tends to decrease offense - his road OPS was about 100 points higher than his home OPS. He seems to be ageing very well, but you'd still have to think those last couple of years at $24 million at ages 39 and 40 will be big overpays.

Robinson Cano is surprisingly effective. Last year was the only year in which he missed much time. It's that ludicrous contact that's the killer. Edwin Diaz on the other hand is still pre-arb and makes Roberto Osuna look like Ryan Tepera in comparison. That big an arm is rare indeed.

Deals are about contracts and Cano's contract is one of the worst in baseball. Maybe he'll be a good player for a couple more years but he's 36 and at the age where sudden decline frequently happens. I would never trade top prospects for a closer at the point the Mets are at. (Maybe in August for a top team that just needs a closer, that's it). Mets could have just signed Kimbrel or Miller or both and kept prospects and been in a better situation long and medium term.

I think I would like to compare the Cano deal to the Tulo deal. It made sense for the Jays to go all in with the pieces they had in place for a big postseason run in 2015, but imagine if we made the Tulo trade this offseason?

The Mets still don't have a catcher, a first basemen, the Todd father is ineffective, the outfield is full of question marks and Rosario didn't show much in his debut. I am not saying they should have necessarily rebuilt and torn down the pitching staff, but I think McNeil is the type of player they should be going after to build up their depth instead of getting rid of.

McNeil is not in the deal. They are offering Kelenic, Bruce, Swarzak, Dunn and Gerson Bautista, a minor reliever.

Cano replaces Bruce and McNeil moves to 3rd. Edwin Diaz replaces Swarzak. The cost is Bautista and 2 recent first round picks.

When a young GM wants to make a dash, he trades prospects for establish players.
Deja-vu.

They should be able to get a catcher and first baseman is the easiest position to fill.
The new GM wants to draft his own prospects. We've seen this before.

The other interesting twist here is that Cano is another player that Brodie Van Wagenen represented, and actually negotiated the 10 year deal Cano signed with Seattle.

Mets have the best pitcher in baseball for only 2 more years and 2 other 4 WAR starters in Wheeler and Thor for 1 year and 3 years respectively.

The back end of their bullpen was a disaster after Familia was traded. Diaz should more than address that for the next few years, much more than paying premium prices for declining Kimbrel and Miller.

They need a middle of the order bat. Cano should address that for the next few seasons. When his contract gets bad, Mets should be in rebuild mode anyway.

Someone brought up the Tulo deal. The money we're paying is probably flushed down the toilet the next 2 seasons. But on the other hand, what is it preventing the Jays from doing while they're in rebuild mode? If the Jays wouldn't be paying Tulo, the money would most likely just go into Rogers' pockets.

My point about Martin is that it's a detriment to the team to have him on the roster. Danny Jansen needs to play, and having Martin as the primary backup means no Maile (presumably) and it means McGuire is blocked until September, which would probably hurt his development as well (especially if he's years good next year).

Yes, the Mets are definitely pushing to create a big two year window to win but while that makes sense for say, the Red Sox, the Mets won 77 games last year. And they weren't particularly unlucky or injury prone either. They might be the fourth best team in their own division next year. It would have made much more sense to sell high on Degrom and Syndergaard who would have both brought back a ton then to go all in with a mediocre hand while creating huge long term issues.

Cano was always my reference point for Tulowitzki to come back to his near prime levels with the belief that Tulo was playing hurt for 2 and a half years. Two guys on hall of fame career paths a few years ago that in my opinion were too good to decline early. One played hurt and the other, healthy, showed that elite players can make elite adjustments and age gracefully in MLB.

- Tulo played hurt through nagging injuries of his hamstring and Bone spurs in his heels and then ruined his ankle. He can recover from the hamstring and torn muscles from the ankle injury but bone spurs is a whole other issue...Greg Bird and Cespedes are struggling to come back from the same injuries...so that changes everything

- Cano was using PED's so that changes my frame of reference as well since he wasn't an example of an elite athlete that could age well, he was in fact just cheating. Now I just view both of them as injured or cheating to stay healthy and now I'm back to believing that David Ortiz, Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter were some kind of magic hall of fame players that were immune to bottom out declines.

- I guess Tulowitzki has the opportunity that nobody else really had to be an elite player, bottom out and then return to very productive numbers and be a good story since he has the reputation, numbers and likability to build a strong 5 year finish to his career...but he needs to be putting up 4+ WAR seasons when he comes back and if he comes back. I no longer am optimistic of that but I am still hopeful.

Someone brought up the Tulo deal. The money we're paying is probably flushed down the toilet the next 2 seasons. But on the other hand, what is it preventing the Jays from doing while they're in rebuild mode? If the Jays wouldn't be paying Tulo, the money would most likely just go into Rogers' pockets.


I mentioned the Tulo deal as an example of where adding an expensive veteran and giving up prospects to push a good team over the top is good deal. However the point is that this version of the Mets are not as good as the 2015 Blue Jays, and are more than just one piece away from contention. This Cano deal will hinder the Mets ability to sign Thor, DeGrom or Wheeler to extensions and they've effectively shortened their window.

I like what the Mets are doing. I agree it's easier to sell high on stud pitching and then rebuild, but I like that this new GM is coming at it from another angle.

There are too many teams now following the strategy of bottoming out and rebuilding to be a big contender. That worked out really well for the Astros and Cubs because nobody else with high budgets were doing that at the time. Now you have tons of teams doing it. Just in their own division the Phillies and Braves have already done the rebuild...so if you're the Mets are you going to wait for those teams' windows to close? At some point front offices will see the "retool" option as the path of lesser resistance and quicker opportunity to contend.

The other thing I like about this trade is that finding pitchers like deGrom and Syndergaard is really really really hard. I don't care how good your front office is, you might not have two studs like that fronting your rotation for another decade or two, "home grown," none the less. As Jeff Passon wrote, he likes the trade because the Mets need a clean up hitter and a bullpen to close the leads set by the rotation and Diaz and Cano fill those needs.

With the Nationals losing Harper the Mets see an opportunity to contend. Put the Mets in the AL East and they probably are selling their stud pitchers with the Red Sox and Yanks running their top teams as they are.

I retract my previous statement about hindering them financially, Seattle is eating 60 million.

Hmm... the Mets are in a division that saw just one team win more than 82 games so dumb luck can shoot you to the top quickly there, or was it just a weird year? Atlanta, Washington, and Philly should all be solid in 2019 with just Miami a basket case. Philly and Atlanta appear built to be good for a few years, Washington might be nearing the end of their window.

Cano is at an age where massive drops happen often.
Roberto Alomar - age 33 150 OPS+, age 34 and beyond 85 OPS+ over 345 games and done - also bought by the Mets.
Barry Larkin - age 36 118 OPS+, age 37 to end 87 OPS+
Ryne Sandberg - age 32 145 OPS+, age 33 to end 95 OPS+ with one year over 100 OPS+

Those are 3 HOF'ers who couldn't do much from age 36 to the end. The Mets are betting $120 million that Cano is better than those middle infield HOF'ers. Seems a really dumb bet to me.

Edwin Diaz is a great closer, but...he is a closer. He had a very heavy workload last year getting 57 saves in 65 games - often guys arms go kaboom after a year like that. Bobby Thigpen had 57 saves at age 26 and had just 53 over the rest of his career. Francisco Rodriguez had 62 at age 26 and had a decent career after but never again led in saves (he did get over 200 more saves though). Eric Gagne had 55 at age 27, then 80 for the rest of his career just once over 20.

Lots of warnings there. I see relievers as super-high risk assets. Important but boy do you play with fire if you count on them. We all remember Duane Ward, 45 saves in 1993 then done. I'm sure with a bit of research I could make a long list of blown arms by closers.

Now all that said, latest reports suggest the Mets are also getting $60 million plus losing Bruce ($28 mil) and Swarzak ($8.5 mil) who are replacement level at best now. That changes the equation a lot and makes it a much better deal for them. If Cano only is a $20 mil risk then it is well worth it. Depending on the quality of prospects going back of course.

They need a middle of the order bat. Cano should address that for the next few seasons. When his contract gets bad, Mets should be in rebuild mode anyway.

The contract got bad in 2017, and nobody can figure out what the Mets were doing then, so why not continue the trend with this trade?

** Whoops - 2018. I don't even know the current year.

Well, it was bad in a way, James, depending how you look at it. Cano just had a little over 300 at-bats and if you doubled all of his stats it would be about average with his last several years, and his WAR was 3.2 over half season. If he continues to get injured ( he has been pretty durable for the last several years ) or his performance declines, which is possible due to age, then yes, it is a bad contract.

Further, when a team signs a star player to a long-term contract at big bucks which lasts into the late thirties in age, they know the last year or two will most likely show a decline in the player's performance -- it's part of the price of getting the player to sign in the first place. In that regard, if Cano stayed with Seattle through the term of his contract and has 2 or 3 more solid years then it was a good contract, even if he declined in the last few years.( ie. they had 6 or 7 good years vs. 2 or 3 lesser ones )
If the Mets acquire him, the they might get 2 or three good years from him vs. 2 or 3 poor ones. They might also get get 0 good years from him. Either way, you think it could be a bad contract for them.

The issue isn't even the trade, it's making the trade where the Mets are. The Phillies are going to spend crazy money the Braves have probably the best young talent in baseball and the Nationals still have a very strong team. Is Edwin Diaz and Cano going to make the Mets better than these teams? Not really. I look at the them and see maybe an 80-85 win team right now. It's bizzare timing to trade your top prospects for a closer.

The Mets are in a mess - they are in a weak division today, but that division looks likely to get very strong soon, as early as 2019. Given that they have 2 choices - try to make the team as good as possible for the next 2 years while they have an elite starting rotation or start a rebuild and sell off those starters. In theory they have revenue streams only the Yankees should be able to beat. In practice they don't due to horrid decisions in the past.

If I ran them I'd be having a tough time with that debate. A NY team should never be needing a full rebuild. Now they need to fill their other holes ASAP - maybe the Jays can help with Martin & Smoak - hey we can dream.

Mets aren't trading away their top prospects and are receiving about 100 million in cash combined with offloading Swarzak and Bruce's contracts.

It's not so cut and dry there are merits to both sides of the deal.

Dipoto has replaced AA for ninja GM btw.

I don't believe that you can or should build a team with the amount of perpetual movement that DiPoto employs.

I definitely think that the majority will agree with that.

Reds to non-tender Billy Hamilton. Someone please explain how likely it is that the Jays can get him if they want to. What's the process, do they need to go through a line up based on standings finished or does he just become a free agent?

Hamilton will be a free agent once non-tendered.  He might have some use as a 4th outfielder, but his value has declined rapidly over the last 2 years. 

John Sickels, who writes for minorleagueball.com, has been let go by VOX media. That is a shock, as his work is the reason I go to that website.

I don't know how you can be the fan of a team that changes players so much all the time.

Pitching is half the game and the Mets have 2 elite starters and now 2 very solid relievers.
They had a lot of injuries last year. A bounce back is not impossible.

If having 2 strong teams in your division is cause to rebuild, we'd have 18 teams rebuilding and 12 fighting for 10 playoff spots.

This will put a lot of pressure on the Braves, the Phillies and the Nationals.

Solarte non-tendered.

Why did so many teams hold onto so many players only to non-tender them?

All other arb eligible Jays tendered.

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like there are more non-tender this year than ever before.
Schoop, for example. Terrible trade.

So many teams held on to players even though they ended up non tendering them because they thought there was a chance they could trade them for something useful even a fringe prospect.

Everybody is doing the same thing, basically trying to emulate the Rays model of NEVER EVER having a player in their down years, ever, even if they sign a project and make them useful.

That's why I like the Mets trade if it goes through, everybody goes one way and he goes the other. What's he got to lose? If he rebuilds and collects prospects then he will be one of 15 teams with stacked systems all at the same time in a few years and the chances he has a top 3 rotation in baseball at that time is slim.

BREAKING: new Angels front office has developed a deeper algorithm of statistics that shows Mike Tout will start a long slow decline beginning next year. They are shopping their star CF to get ahead of the decline.
Source: Phil A. Schitt

Scott there's definitely a lot of players non tendered this year like Avisail Garcia that are surprising. Travis and Pillar probably get the tenders because it allows front office to get another year of control out of prospects.

So teams hope to trade their eventual non-tenders for fringe prospects... and leave their own fringe prospects exposed for the Rule 5.

Yup,

Teams think there is more value in non tender candidates being traded than their fringe prospects getting claimed because everybody has fringe prospects and teams are more likely to make a move to acquire someone they think had a down year.

You think the Jays had a better chance to trade Leiter Jr or Solarte?

You think the Jays had a better chance to trade Leiter Jr or Solarte?

Neither.

I'm fairly sure the Mariners aren't including $60 million in the deal. I'm pretty confident that the $60 million figure is either what the Mets are left with or is the combined total of Bruce and Swarzak's contracts and the cash. I think the Mets are taking on about half of Cano's remaining contract.

Edwin Diaz is probably the best young closer in the game and Robinson Cano has had 10 straight seasons of at least 3 WAR, including last year's half-season. I understand expressing concern from the Mets perspective about the trade given the division/state of the team.

However, I don't understand the reaction that suggests this is a steal or a fleecing for Seattle. They are good prospects, but Kelenic is in the low minors and there are questions about whether Dunn will end up in the bullpen. Neither of them is close to a sure thing. I'm not sure whether i'd do it, but it seems very reasonable to go for it while you had DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler and Matz and this is a 77 win team that may have added about 5 or 6 WAR

Seattle's only paying about $23.5-$26.5 Million of Cano's salary.

1) Gerson Bautista should be repeating AA - disappointing.
2) Jarred Kelenic was the 6th pick (HS) in 2018 - successful debut.
3) Justin Dunn was the 19th pick (COL) in 2016 - success but slower progress.
Not a good enough return for that caliber of Closer.

Yes, lots of interesting names among the non-tenders. I was a little surprised the Giants non-tendered Strickland, who has a career ERA under 3.00, and is 1st year arb-eligible after making only $1.5 million last year, but the one that stands out and grabs me is Schoop. As a 24 year old in 2016, he hit 25 HR's and OPS'd .752. Then in 2017, at 25, he had 32 HR's and an OPS of .841, with decent fielding numbers, and a WAR of 5.2. He was 12th in AL MVP voting, and it looked like the O's had a terrific young star player at 2B. Then he got off to a terrible start last year, finally figured things out at the end of June, and hit like a house on fire in July, with an OPS of 1.060 for that month, but then he was traded and it seemed to derail him again, and he hit poorly for Milwaukee in part-time play. I'd love to see the Jays take a run at signing him - 2019 will be his age 27 season, so he could have a lot of good years left. If he bounces back, you've got a very nice looking infield of Vladdy, Bichette and Schoop, and you can move Gurriel to the OF.

They are trading 2 first round picks, that seems a high price, but you don't have to go very far to find a draft in which they Jays would have been better off trading their top 2 picks for the best reliever in  baseball.

15? John Harris and Brady Singer.
14? Hoffman and Pentecost

I personally like Biggio but I'd certainly rather have Schoop than Drury.
I don't think he'll go for cheap.

The Ranger non-tendered 4 pre-arbitration players including Matt Bush, who is recovering from surgery.

The Cubs have non-tendered Torreyes whom they just acquired from the Yankees, for money I think.
Would be fitting if the Yankees use  that money to re-sign him to a minor deal.
It seems the Cubs were not sure if they wanted to keep Addison Russell (domestic abuse).

The Orioles have dropped Tim Beckham and Caleb Joseph.
Now here's a team which will be very active in the rule V draft.

The A's have dropped Mike Fiers--who was pretty good this year--and Graveman.who wasn't.

The Brewers have released Xavier Cedeno who is a much better lefty than Loup has been in a long time.

Lots of interesting players being kicked to the curb.

Blue Jays still have decisions to make with the Winter Meetings Dec. 9-13 at Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas. There are Trades, Free Agent Signings maybe Rule 5 Pick(s) which will be forthcoming. But with only one space available on the 40-Man I can see two more possible openings being created with Jonathan Davis and Dalton Pompey being DFA'd.

"However, I don't understand the reaction that suggests this is a steal or a fleecing for Seattle. "

It's not a fleecing for Seattle but it's a trade that makes no sense for the Mets. If the Mets were a 90 win team who wanted to push themselves over the top for a couple of years, fine. But they were literally the 20th best team in baseball last year so creating this small window to try to win makes zero sense. They had a few injuries last year but their pitching was surprisingly healthy. Their top-4 starters made at least 25 starts. That's very unlikely to happen again. It's an OK trade for Cleveland but a stupid trade for the Mets.

Glevin, that is exactly why my comment also said, "I understand expressing concern from the Mets perspective about the trade given the division/state of the team." I understand your point entirely.

And, there is commentary that suggests that this trade is a win for Seattle.

Seattle spent money on signings and traded for some very good people over the years. The result, not enough success. They still had some very good players - too much for a rebuild. They decided to change the makeup of the Team.
The Catcher they traded was just replaced:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mariners-trade-alex-colome-white-sox-omar-narvaez.html

The James Paxton trade brought back assets.:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25325582/yankees-land-james-paxton-trade-send-top-prospect-mariners

The Mariners are doing what they can to change the Team:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/significant-momentum-mets-trade-rumors-mariners-acquire-robinson-cano-edwin-diaz.html
I find it hard to find winners or losers when Seattle is doing everything they want to.

There are rumours that Fiers  was non-tendered because he was upset--on twitter--about being left out of the wild card game roster. The front office decided to start an opener and the Yankees were up 2-0 after one inning.

Jon Heyman reported that the Blue Jays have interest in Dallas Keuchel.

I take that with a grain of salt, but the need for a reliable starter is real.

Scottt, it’s probably a situation like last off-season, where the Jays were “interested” in Cain (and Fowler the off-season before that), but were never all that likely to sign the player. I would put Keuchel in the same category. It could be that these rumours are disseminated from time to time in an effort to keep the team somewhat in the news and fans interested.

The rumours probably come from his agent in an effort to try and drive up the price.

I'm "interested" in a Lamborghini but it's not going to happen.

How we forget, the Jays were deep in discussion with Dexter Fowler's Agent on a contract when St. Louis made a last minute desperation overpay.

Blue Jays were deep into trade discussions with Miami on Christian Yelich when Milwaukee made a last minute desparation overpay.

They discussed actual term and Dollars with Lorenzo Cain's Agent. Milwaukee made a similar-ish offer to get him signed.

1) Interest in Dallas Kuechel is probably real. The Jays want a Pitcher under control for at least two years longer than Stroman and Sanchez are available, preferably a #1-#2 Starter-type.
2) The interest in Kuechel might indicate that their primary target - J.A. Happ's market has moved past where the Jays are comfortable, both in term and in dollars.

I'm wondering if the Jays might buy low on Graveman. His career is ERA+ 93, 2.6 BB/9 vs 5.8 K/9 with last year being a 3.4 BB/9 vs 7.1 K/9 but an ERA+ of 55 thanks to 2.4 HR/9 (far worse than his 1.1 lifetime pre-2018). I'd give him a AAA deal and hope for the best. Worst case is he'd be the #7 guy, best case he is a solid #3 with an ERA+ in the 90's like we hoped Happ would be at first.

As to the Mets/Mariners deal - At first it sounded like the Mets taking on all the salary and giving up quality prospects, then it shifted to the Mets paying very little thanks to a couple of bad deals going back, who knows until the ink is dry on this deal. Still, bottom line is the Mets are not contenders right now while Philly & Atlanta are young contenders and Washington an older contender. Might be able to sneak in in 2019 but it is a big risk which could be derailed with pretty much anyone getting hurt or those other teams getting really good really fast. I give their GM credit for guts, but seems too big a risk imo.

I wonder if the Mets are better with Donaldson at 3rd with McNeil at 2nd or with Cano at second with McNeil at 3rd? I feel like that scenario would cost less money and fore sure less prospect capital.

Kendal Graveman missed about 11 weeks after May 19th in 2017 - rehabbing shoulder strain. He didn't pitch after May 11th in 2018 - rehabbing forearm. Underwent Tommy John Surgery around mid- to late July. It's unlikely he will pitch before 2020, maybe a September 2019 callup.

One of the many strange things behind the Mets’ move is how easily available these positions are this year (RP and 2B). Lowrie, Dozier, Murphy, Schoop, LeMahieu, Kinsler are all free agents. Ottavino, Robertson, Kimbrel, Familia, Allen, Miller, and more are all good free agent relievers. The Mets could have signed say, LeMaiheu and Ottavino and be pretty much in the same place without terrible long term contracts and still keeping their top prospects. Of course, they didn’t really need a 2Bman. So instead, they could have signed Grandal or Pollock or someone else who filled a team need.

I expect Keuchel is going to get paid way more than he is worth. His numbers have been helped a great deal by his home park. Minute Maid has a long term pitching park factor of 94 (with 100 being average). Quite a good pitchers' park. Keuchel's road numbers for his career are not impressive. ERA over 4.00, and WHIP around 1.35. He'll be 31 in a month.

His reputation, All-Star appearances, post season success, and those 2 great seasons in 2014/2015 will ensure he gets a big contract, both in length and annual salary. I expect that whoever signs him will be regretting it in the not too distant future.

Yeah, Keuchel isn't who I'd expect the Jays to be after. He will cost a draft pick, 5 years $100+ million, over 30. He is a 'we need to win now' guy not a 'will help us win in 3 years' guy. MLB Trade Rumors expects 4 years $82 million but to get him here I expect it would take a 5th year and $100 million.

In a lot of respects I'd prefer Nathan Eovaldi - younger (entering age 29 season) has had injury issues in the past so should be cheaper. A bit more risk, but the Jays can afford it right now. Higher k/9 last year too with the poor defense here that would be a plus.

IMO there will be FAs in the offseason before 2021. So I wait to see our needs.

To me, an ERA+ around 90 is a 5th starter. The 4h would be at least around 100 and the third guy close to 110.
A below average guy is not solid anything. The correct adjective is mediocre.
Best case he is a mediocre #3 with an ERA+ in the 90's.

There is a need now for a guy who can throw 7 innings without getting knocked around.

Jays were ranked 30th in ERA last year. Our pitching was terrible and that's with Happ included to help bring up the average.

This is the offseason where front offices are fighting back against analytics and "taking flyers." If you can't stay healthy you're typically not getting the love. Stroman and Sanchez could be aces but fact is they were both terrible last year.

"I'm "interested" in a Lamborghini but it's not going to happen"

- best take on the latest Jays rumor

Thanks scottt and dalimon5. I understand the adjectives terrible and mediocre.
Besides the 3 original SPs mentioned by dalimon5 in the early going also were Estrada, Garcia and S Gaviglio who made his 1st start May 19. So fairly early in the season. Also mediocre/terrible.

Borucki etc... came up late so I am not counting them.

It's too early to lean on Borucki or any prospect.
They already have underperformers with upside in Stroman and Sanchez
There's no room on the club for more.
None with large contracts and who are out of options, anyway.
Unless your goal is to make the new coaches and the transitioning prospects look bad and keep the fans away.

Actually, most people don't understand the adjective mediocre. It has become one of the most incorrectly used words in the English language, as most people now think it means not very good/poor/bad or some such thing. It actually means average, middle of the pack, medium quality, as it is from the root word medium.

There is a need now for a guy who can throw 7 innings without getting knocked around.

Trades
James Pazton averaged 5.73 IP per Start last year.
Corey Kluber averaged 6.52 IP per Start last year.
Trevor Bauer averaged 6.35 IP per Start last year.
Zack Greinke averaged 6.29 IP per Start last year.
Carlos Carrasco averaged 6.22 IP per Start last year.

Free Agents
Patrick Corbin averaged 6.06 IP per Start last year.
Dallas Keuchel averaged 6.02 IP per Start last year.
Nathan Eovaldi averaged 5.11 IP per Start last year.
J.A. Happ averaged 5.73 IP per Start last year.
Yusel Kikuchi averaged 7.12 IP per Start last year.
Charlie Morton averaged 5.57 IP per Start last year.
Gio Gonzalez averaged 5.34 IP per Start last year.
Anibal Sanchez averaged 5.57 IP Start last year.
Trevor Cahill averaged 5.3 IP per Start last year.

In-house
Aaron Sanchez averaged 5.25 IP per Start last year.
Marcus Stroman averaged 5.39 IP per Start last year.
Ryan Borucki averaged 5.75 IP per Start last year.

That need for 7.0 IP/Start will be extremely hard to find and extremely expensive to acquire. Best case scenario says multiple multi-inning Relievers may be worth more and cheaper to find.

Birdfeed has some interesting numbers about rule V picks.

Over the last 10 years---1997 to 2017, since there are still 3 2018 rule v picks who could still be returned in 2019-- the return rates where as follow:

1. 44.4% of rule V draftees were returned to their original teams.
2. 9.7% of selected players were offered back to their original team which declined to take them back.
3. 7.4% of players were eventually traded by their original teams to another team.
4. That leaves 34.82% of draftees who were kept on the drafting team's roster and eventually acquired that way.


That's quite a lot higher than what I've been hearing, so I wouldn't be surprised if anyone feels like double checking those numbers.

They have a number of guys fighting for bullpen spots already and it's going to be difficult to develop those guys if they have to throw a lot of innings on short rest. The 200+ innings pitched is probably what makes Keuchel attractive.

It actually means average, middle of the pack, medium quality, as it is from the root word medium.

I'm not sure your attempt fully captures the essence of "mediocre." It doesn't *only* or strictly mean average or medium quality. Here are a few dictionary definitions: Oxford Dictionary: "Of only average quality; not very good." Merriam-Webster: "of moderate or low quality, value, ability, or performance." Collins: (British) "average or ordinary in quality." (American): "1. neither very good nor very bad; ordinary; average. 2. not good enough; inferior." Macmillan: "average or below average in quality, ability, or achievement." Cambridge Dictionary: "not very good."

In Baseball, being average is being not good enough/mediocre. Sometimes being above average is being not good enough/mediocre.

I see the Mariners are continuing to clean house & jettison salaries. Now they are trading Jean Segura to the Phillies. Segura has definitely not been mediocre, producing 13 WAR over the last 3 years, will be 29 next season, but has 4 more years at just under $15 million/yr on his contract. Kyle Seager has almost $60 million left on his deal, so maybe he's next in line.

I think the return for Segura is relatively weak, I don't think JP Crawford is very good.

I guess Dipoto is trying to emulate the Rays.
The A's could have trouble duplicated what they accomplished this year and the Angels haven't made any noise so far this winter.

If Phillies could offload Santana as it looks like they may have, it would vastly improve their historically bad defense. No Hoskins in OF and Segura at SS. Also, room for Harper in the OF. NL East is shaping up to be a fun division. Four competitive teams.

I never thought about the fact this open up a spot for Hoskins at 1B and potenially a spot for Harper in the OF. This is a really good trade for Philadelphia, and a way to salvage some trade value from J.P. Crawford.

Does grabbing Segura take Philly out of the running for Machado, or do most teams not see him as a SS? I mean everybody understands he is a much better 3B, but I wonder if some teams will offer him SS just to sign him.

I see a comment that says the Jays could be going after Keuchel because Happ has gotten too expensive.

Shouldn't Keuchel be getting a bigger contract than Happ? Even a SIGNIFICANTLY bigger contract than Happ?

I think the word you're looking for is cromulent.

Colour me surprised that Happ would get significantly more than Keuchel.

Keuchel's got a QO attached to him.  He's presumably looking for a deal of about 4 years for a significant number, like Mark Buehrle got a number of years ago.  Happ's probably looking for a 2 or 3 year deal but maybe with a higher AAV. 

With Seattle in full fire sale mode one wonders who else is available? Anyone the Jays would want?

Next big name is Felix Hernandez but with negative WAR last year and nearly $28 million on his deal for 2019 plus a $1 mil option for 2020 if he is hurt in 2019 for over 130 days who would want to take him? Unless Seattle paid his entire contract of course (which defeats the purpose). Mike Leake is also on their 'to trade' list I'm sure owed $11 mil this year and in 2020, $5 mil buyout of mutual option for 2021 (those options almost always are rejected by one or the other). He is a 180 IP guy with an ERA+ in the 90-110 range so lots of value if the Jays cannot get Happ or someone else. Plus if he has a good year this or next he is very easy to trade I'd suspect. Solid #4/5 guy, OK as #3 and on a team with the pitching injury issues this one has he might be very useful.

That's about it from what I can see of guys they might dump who the Jays would have one drop of interest in. Doubt we'll see the Jays do a deal with Seattle. Although Leake is temping as a good stopgap in the rotation if other options fall through and if the price is low enough (wonder if they'd take Morales in exchange...nah).

J.A. Happ is looking for three years possibly two with an option. I suspect he's asking for $17.5-$18.0 Million per year.
Dallas Keuchel is about five years younger. It's suggested he's after four years at $20.5 per year.

That's NOT significantly more for some one who could be a fit.

With Yusel Kikuchi being posted today, the Free Agent Pitching market grinds to a halt. With Pitchers still getting traded, the Market won't restart very soon.

Now Kikuchi is super-tempting. 6 years of control probably at a better price than most free agents. The new posting system is a bit screwy (percentage of what you offer him goes to his old team on top of what you offer him as I understand it so you might offer him $100 mil but then pay an extra $10 mil to his posting team...not sure of the percentages but that is the concept). I'm guessing a few GM's will be gun shy as his first year might be an adjustment year thus putting the GM on a hotseat. Also, the adjustment period means a contender would be taking a bigger risk than a team like Toronto who plans to be competitive in a year or two. Could be an ideal fit.

Kikuchi would be the only FA starter that makes sense for the Jays, at least of those who will require long-term deals. I'm not expecting it to happen, but more sensible than Keuchel.

I didn't say anything about the Seattle/Mets trade on Friday, and I do have a couple of thoughts. Cano is 36, and has the PED suspension under his belt.  I wouldn't bet on him being as good as the projections would suggest.  Kelenic was my favourite player in the draft last year- I love the swing and think that he's going to be a star.  I've been wrong many times before. 

Mike
You are right more often than you might be wrong.

Mike I am in agreement that I thought Kelenic was the best prep hitting prospect in the draft this past year.

Kikuchi is a big risk and the last thing I'd want right now is a guy who might struggle but can't be sent down to AAA.
They did increase the Japanese scouting, but that doesn't mean the report coming back is straight As.
The team really needs a veteran presence in the rotation.

I see the Marlins announced a whole slew of minor league signings today including Jon Berti.

Nice to see Berti has an admittedly small chance of seeing the big leagues again. The competitive NL east with 4 teams going for it and the Marlins as also-rans is a good a chance as any

The Nationals have signed Corbin to a 6/140 deal.

My guess is Happ goes back to the Yankees now.

It would be interesting to see a study of free agent signings after a player has just had a year that is far better than any season he has had before. Corbin's 2018 ERA and FIP were around a run a game better than his career average prior to this year. His total career WAR prior to 2018 was 6.9 for 5 seasons, including 2 years where he had only around 100 IP, so call it the equivalent of 4 seasons, or about 1.7 WAR per full season. In 2018, his WAR was 4.6. He now seems to have gotten a contract as if 2018 was his normal year, as the Nationals are paying for that kind of performance, or something close to it, for the next 6 years. I expect that they will be deeply disappointed.

I think Happ goes to whoever offers him the most.

Corbin will be 29 and Happ 36.

I think the discussion with Happ starts at 3/50M.

Keuchel projects around 4/80M, so it's easy to see why the Blue Jays could be interested.
Eovaldi should be around 4/60M. Probably with some bonus for innings pitched totals.

The Nationals are betting the bank instead of betting the farm.
At some point, they'll have to give up an rebuild, but they have Swertzer for another 3 years, so why not?
Strasburgh could opt out after 2019 or 2020. You could tank for 20 years an not draft a Cy Young contender.
They have several.

It's going to be really hard to finish behind teams like the Orioles/Marlins/Royals etc...
The White Sox haven't won 80 games since 2012 and they don't really seem that close either.

...He now seems to have gotten a contract as if 2018 was his normal year...

Players have 'breakout years' which usually gets them to the "show" or which usually keeps them in the "show". Players have 'career years' which fools people into thinking they are better than they actually were, sometimes at contract time. Corbin's was a 'career year'.

I mean that is a lot of money for Patrick Corbin, but his salary basically takes the place of Gio's.

If I am that Nats I let Harper walk and role with a Soto, Robles, Eaton outfield which is easily a top 10 and maybe top 5 outfield. I would rather extend Anthony Rendon than sign Harper, who has been better than him 4 out of the last 5 years.

They already took care of catching and there are quite a few 2B available who would be an upgrade in Washington.
Ironically, they already fixed the bullpen when they traded Madson to LA.

If you look at who might be interesting for the Jays in the Mariners teardown, I'd say Haniger.
Not now, but when he gets close to arbitration, they'll probably look to trade him Donaldson-style for  a number of advanced prospects and the Jays could have a lot of interesting infield guys in the high minors then.
You just need to keep a watch on the guy for when he becomes available.

I just realized in the photo for this article how much Josh Donaldson looks like Kelly Gruber. Just from that angle I guess and with the batting helmet.

Goldschmidt to the Cards for Andy Young, a 5th starter, a backup catcher and a comp pick.

Yeah, I see no return for Smoak, right now.

I think the Diamondbacks did fairly well for one year of Goldschmidt. I understand why the Cardinals did it, but I think Arizona got a good return. The biggest winner is probably Carson Kelly, who needed to get 100 games to prove what he can do in the majors, and wasn't going to get it in St. Louis.

Who hits behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. so he gets pitched to more? Justin Smoak is the best bet isn't he?

It's one year of an MVP contender, for a bunch of previously highly ranked prospects who haven't shown up anything much. It's the best offer they could get and it's better than the draft pick the QO would have returned.

It's better than what Cincy will be doing with Votto who's on the wrong  side of 35.

I like the deal for St. Louis, they never gave up core pieces and got exactly what they needed. I don't think teams are moving elite prospects anymore so the return for most good players these days seem underwhelming....minus the cano trade.

In other news, Atkins is challenging Tulo it would seem, publicly stating Gurriel Jr is the starting short stop if the season started tomorrow and, get this, basically saying that he doesn't think TT will be able to play above average short stop if healthy. That's a bold statement to make from a GM that's meeting with said player and agent in a few days at the Winter Meetings. Maybe it's just a play to motivate Tulo a bit more out of his comfort zone Ala Cashman/Jeter or maybe they're going to try to play him at SS and DH/1B if they have a trade or buy out worked out for Smoak and Morales.

Dealing Smoak isn't about getting a great return. A longshot is plenty imo. Number one is clearing roster space for kids now. Need to find out if Tellez is going to be part of the future or is just another September kid. The option had to be picked up as he is easily worth that much on the open market. Plus I see a A ball prospect as useful in the future, Smoak is just good for 2019.

I think the Diamondbacks did fairly well for one year of Goldschmidt. I understand why the Cardinals did it, but I think Arizona got a good return. The biggest winner is probably Carson Kelly, who needed to get 100 games to prove what he can do in the majors, and wasn't going to get it in St. Louis.

Yeah, not a crazy haul, but some decent potential and prudent given his pending free agency. Arizona was smart to get ahead of this situation IMO.

Well said everyone. The MLB Winter Meetings start this Weekend/Sunday, 8/9 December. Ross Atkins is sending a message that expects to be active. IMO, he needs to do better than any other GM in this Division just to keep up.

Getting a long term (4+ years) answer for a Front of the Rotation Starter problem this Offseason shortens the Rebuild. IMO, this is a priority. It also lessens the demands that the other Starters must be great. It makes it easier on choosing a Back of the Rotation Starter.

The Jays are starting a lot of Rookies/near Rookies (less than one full year) on the Team next Season. Ryan Borucki LHP, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B, Lourdes Gurriel Jr SS, Danny Jansen C, and Billy MvKinney OF all qualify as Rookies/near Rookies. Chances are there could be more.

The question becomes, "Who headlines the Trade Package the Jay's need for a top Starter". Bo Bichette headlines mine and we would go from there.

The Jays are rebuilding. The absolute LAST thing they are going to do is trade a top prospect like Bo Bichette for a starting pitcher. That's the kind of trade you make when you are a serious World Series contender, and you need that 1 last piece to put you over the top. I would expect the Jays to add a mid-level starter as a free agent to help during the development phase for their starting pitcher prospects. They probably will be trying to deal a veteran or two for another starting candidate like the guys they've been acquiring the last year - somebody who is at AAA, not a top prospect, but somebody who has a shot at a big league rotation.

Trade makes sense for St. Louis and for Arizona. STL doesn't give up elite prospects but Arizona gets 2 interesting pieces (and a draft pick!) who were recently elite prospects. I like that more teams seem to be going for it this year.

Atkins on Tulo...

“Candidly, and I think Troy would agree with me, that is not likely. He will have to overachieve to play shortstop at an above-average offensive performance for 140 games. That would be unlikely based on what has occurred in the last two and a half years. That doesn’t mean he’s not going to do it, but candidly, I don’t think that’s likely,”

Considering there were only 2 starting SS over 30 last year (and both were 31) and considering Tulo's history, "unlikely" is being pretty generous. I think the Jays are going to see how he looks in Spring just in case he miraculously comes back but I think there's a good chance he's cut loose still.

So what do you think it takes to get Greinke from Arizona? They just traded away Goldschmidt so they are clearly interested in rebuilding.

Greinke is 35, and signed for 3 more years at $34.5M, $35M, and $35M. That is obviously a lot of money for an older pitcher.

But on the plus side here are the stats for his last 5 years:
2018 207.2 IP, 135 ERA+, 3.70 FIP, 3.21 ERA, 199 K, GoldGlove, 4.2 WAR
2017 202.1 IP, 147 ERA+, 3.31 FIP, 3.20 ERA, 215 K, GoldGlove, 6.1 WAR
2016 158.2 IP, 102 ERA+, 4.12 FIP, 4.37 ERA, 134 K, GoldGlove, 2.3 WAR
2015 222.2 IP, 222 ERA+, 2.76 FIP, 1.66 ERA, 200 K, GoldGlove, 9.1 WAR
2014 202.1 IP, 129 ERA+, 2.97 FIP, 2.71 ERA, 207 K, GoldGlove, 4.4 WAR
In other words, he's been really good. Even his one "bad" year in 2016 was not awful.

Due to age and salary I don't think you would offer any of our top prospects. But if Goldschmidt who is also worth 5-6 WAR but is only paid $14.5 M can bring back only 3 mediocre prospects (or people that used to be good prospects but aren't now), what would it take to get Greinke? Trying to do a similar 3-for-1 would something like Pompey, Pentecost, and Harris get it done? If that is too little, what about Alford, Zeuch, and Hiraldo?

In pure salary-less baseball value Greinke is obviously a stud. But getting basically $105M over 3 years is a lot of cash and some risk of age/injury, so maybe the price could be right. Obviously the Jays roster looks much stronger with Greinke as the #1 starter!

The Jays are on Grienke's no trade list, and I am not sure he would wave it to come here.

I don't think the Jays are going to cut Tulo loose, as I don't think they walk away from the amount of money owed to him. I remember when Shapiro took over he was fairly critical of the Tulo deal and made slights about trying to keep Tulo on the field as a challenge. With the comments by Atkins it is probably a long standing opinion by the front office regardless of the most recent injury.

"I don't think the Jays are going to cut Tulo loose, as I don't think they walk away from the amount of money owed to him."

If you're not going to play him, it doesn't matter if you cut him or sit him. Maybe he can be traded for a similarly bad contract.

We'll have to see how he plays. I think there's more concern on his offense than on his defense, which is kinda weird for an old shortstop. The Jays' payroll is so low that I don't care about Tulo's salary. What is it keeping the Jays from doing? Giving Keuchel a 5th year?

Pillar is a guy who could be traded for something now and won't be around for contention.
Hopefully Grichuk takes a step and becomes worthy of an extension otherwise he could be moved next winter.

It depends. The Marlins are insisting on elite prospects/core players for Realmuto and nobody's biting.
If the half measures don't pan out, feelings could change.
Generally, poor teams trade core players when they start to get expensive and they go to the best offer.
This usually creates a bidding war, but you need 2 teams that really want the same piece.
It's easier to achieve with pitchers. The packages the Yankees got for relievers where excessive.
Still, so far, only Torres has panned out for the Yankees.

The other way around, when you trade a guy who is at the end of his contract, the returns are often modest.

The reason I don't think you just cut Tulo loose is that Bichette is the next shortstop and he's not ready for another year.
The 140 games is interesting. It might be a clue that will be rested heavily. Maybe he starts on a 2 on, 1 off like Martin and Travis did last year.

I think the message to Tulo is "we're interested in getting you as healthy as possible and having you play only when healthy...as in, 3 times a week with good numbers." Tulo has been playing through all types of injuries and maybe this front office is tired of letting player decide if he will play through a busted hamstring or bone spur himself...this probably ties into the debacle with JD and the high performance team more than we think. One thing Atkins mentioned which is being glossed over by most reports about Tulo is that TT has full range of motion back and his full strength back as he trains with his college team in Long Beach state. That's encouraging.

Bichette; I don't think it's easy to decide whether to move him or not in a trade until you know what the return could be. I've always been a fan of trading him for a top 10 prospect on the pitching side from another organization if possible, like Forest Whitley in Houston. Bichette has a lot of good things going for him, but his numbers have been declining the last 3 years, some are still unsure if he will handle SS and the Jays have a ton of infielders. I can see the value in trading your best trade piece from the infield if it means strengthening the rotation with a big time prospect.

Greinke deal - would be awesome but I think SRF is a comparable to Weaver from the Cardinals, so try SRF/Alford/McGuire for Greinke and you can probably get a deal done. Greinke is more expensive and older than Goldschmidt but he's a pitcher which makes him harder to acquire...but yes someone else noted that he has a no trade list so definitely not coming to TO.

The 140 games is interesting. It might be a clue that will be rested heavily.

Tulowitzki has only ever managed 140 games in a season 3 times, the last as a 26-year old. Heavy resting won't be required to keep him at that threshold. The cosmic tumblers have it covered.

Scottt is on the same wave length but gives a better example. Two injury prone players (Travis, Martin) were heavily rested last year which is what they will probably do with Tulo. That's an easy way to give Montoyo the flexibility to play who is performing better at SS.

I just think this whole thing is mute since Diaz was traded and Gurriel looked terrible to me at SS.

Chuck,

Replace the 140 games with 90 games and the point still stands.

I also don't see Tulo as any sort of roadblock. I'm not sold on Guriel as a full time shortstop (he has the tools, but has a good dose of long-limbed awkwardness) - I'd still love to see him groomed as a bat-first super-utility that'll provide half-days to everybody while they DH. To me, Troy's not a real issue until Bichette's ready, which I could see as soon as the second half of the year.

I suspect the Jays are factoring in that Tulo is always hurt and plan to rest him like mad to try to get as much out of him over the season as possible so he is tradable next winter or even in July. If he produces in a half time role someone will go 'what if we let him play everyday' and then regret it within 2 or 3 weeks once he goes back on the DL, but by then he is gone from here.

so he is tradable next winter

Could Tulo ever realistically be tradable? Who would want a an aging, fragile, part-timer limited to one position? Even for free?

As was mentioned, he's not currently blocking any obvious heir to the position, so including him in the mix is of no immediate consquence. The organization wants to give playing time to Gurriel even if they are privately dubious about his ability to handle shortstop's defensive challenges. But it at least gives him a position to play.

My feeling is that Tulowitzki represents a PR challenge, nothing more. He's a once great player (if never as a Jay) and the organization is going to be careful about the optics of bringing him back into the fold. Or I would have thought so in advance of Atkins' brazenly pessimistic comments.

My prediction is that Tulowitzki is given playing time to reward him for his efforts to remedy his ailments, but that he eventually gets hurt again never to return to the team. And he'll remained DL'd until the 38M are all gone.

Tulo will not be traded unless it's for another team's equally unmovable contract (ex. to the D-Backs for Tomas). He has no trade value at all, and would be by far the oldest starting SS in the league (if he's healthy) in a league that places a ton of value on aging curves.

I don't expect Tulo to play for the Jays again. I'm not sure how they will eventually part ways, but it looks inevitable.

Man this front office is something else.

Vlad is the only thing holding this together.

On a side note, Cliff Corcoran in The Athletic just did a 2-part, very personal ranking of MLB uniforms. He based his rankings on home,road & alternate. He says he likes simplicity & clean design (he's not a fan of uniform clutter, eg, too many patches).

Top 2 are no surprise:
1. Dodgers
2. Yankees

But #3: Blue Jays.

He writes the 2004-11 Jays uniforms "were among the worst in the game", but likes the current set as "a tremendous example of updating a classic design in a way that feels both modern and traditional yet singular in its overall conception."

Last quote: he says there aren't huge differences, "In fact, the gap between the first and 29th team on the list might be just as large as the gap between the 29th and 30th."

#30: Diamondbacks

I will predict that Tulo plays more games at SS for the Jays than any other player and that he is a top 3 position player for this team next year. Who does he have to beat again? Kevin Pillar...yup I'll take take that over.

I don't think there is a single regular that is tradeable for anything decent. Tulo is not tradeable because of his contract and skill, but it's not like that's not the case for pretty much most other sub 4WAR players past 30. Let's take a look at the Blue Jay position players:

LF - McKinney ... can probably get another bench player with upside

CF - Pillar - Does anyone think we can get much for a player getting more expensive, more injuries, declining defense and still terrible hitting? If he's not untradeable then I guess you can say he's tradeable for some other teams declining borderline replacement level player...

RF - Grichuk - was traded to us for Greene and Leone...he overperformed and so I guess we can say he is tradeable...likely for ok bullpen health

3B - Drury - is he tradeable? I don't really think so...maybe a team who wants control but he hasn't proved himself yet so what can we get for him...probably nothing

SS - Gurriel is definitely tradeable

2B - Travis not tradeable

1B - Smoak good but not tradeable imo since he went unclaimed on waivers and 1B isn't what it once was with power hitters getting waived

C - Russell Martin not tradeable (eating 90% of his salary counts as non tradeable in my books)

Donaldson - was non tradeable after injury



In short - to me, you have Grichuk, Hernandez, Gurriel + prospects as your only "tradeable" position players. Grichuk, Borucki, SRF, Vlad, Jansen, etc. Out of that group I don't think you're getting anything exciting or worthwhile back unless you deal away from the core or prospects:

Stroman, Sanchez, SRF, Vlad, Biggio, Bichette, Pearson, Pardinho, Jansen, etc.


So when you say "Tulo is untradeable," unless you're just expecting to trade him to save the money in which case you just cut him... isn't mostly every Blue Jay that isn't a prospect, rookie or super young pitcher untradeable?

Rather than trying to lump as many people together to make it look like Tulo is normal/fine/not a problem.

How about this:
Tulo is the least tradeable.
Tulo would be the hardest to trade.
Tulo is the Jays player with the least value.

The Jays can trade anyone on the team aside from Tulo and Morales. They can get something for Martin if they eat up enough of his deal (~$15M). There is no amount of money they can possibly cover to get a team to take Tulo or Morales. The only real chance is if they take back an equally bad or worse contract, which doesn't benefit the Jays at all unless there are (good) prospects coming back as well.

Morales is a replacement level DH. Teams don't even value 1-2 WAR 1B/DH types anymore. The Jays can release him or eat up all of his money to trade him (for nothing in return), but trading him without eating up the entire contract is not realistic at all.

Morales is more tradeable than Martin.

Not that either of then are remotely tradeable.
I disagree that some of the others aren't tradeable. They could get a taker for Travis or Pillar as long as the price was low enough.

I think that Morales is tradeable but doubt that it would happen.

I don't think Tulo plays for the Jays this coming season.

Martin is tradeable because of position. Unfortunately there are a ton of catchers available in free agency, in addition to Realmuto in a trade, so that complicates things, but if the Jays eat up enough money then they should be able to move him and get a C level type of prospect (along the lines of what they got for Granderson/Axford/Loup at the deadline).

I don't see any market for Morales. I'm sure a team would sign him if he were released and it cost them nothing, or a team would trade a worse contract for him, but actually trading for him while assuming even a tiny bit of his salary beyond the league minimum? I don't see it. Teams do not value DH's and he doesn't hit well enough to compensate for it. He can't be a useful bench piece either. His best role at this point might be as a part time DH to mentor young players, so the Jays are a good match for him.

Everyone is theoretically tradable. Attach Vlad to Tulo and you'll have tons of takers. Tulo has massive negative value though. Martin would take paying down most of his salary and Morales almost all of it.

N Eovaldi gets 4 years with the Red Sox.

Well said Glevin. Vlad!!! I too was getting frustrated by almost all the posts.

Sorry about my last post.

The writers are going to make up all kinds of nonsense. A lot of us know that.

Seriously I don't know how many games we will win next year. Hopefully we play .500+ ball.

I also want us to play the youth. 3 non regular OFs on the 40 man roster will be out of options next year. Pompey 0 left. Alford and D Smith Jr 1 left. OF Forrest Wall may or may not develop. I did not want him added to the 40 man roster.

"Rather than trying to lump as many people together to make it look like Tulo is normal/fine/not a problem.

How about this (revised):
Tulo is the least tradeable (out of a team with mostly untradeable starters from 2018.)
Tulo would be the hardest to trade (as expected for a player near the end of a massive contract and definitely hardest to trade while injured and not playing.)
Tulo is the Jays player with the least value right now (while he isn't playing and going forward if you factor in the annual salary and only rate him on year X of his long contract he was underpaid for in COL and first 2 years in TO). "

With those revisions to your summary I can agree. I hope there is a mute function on this site because if TT returns and puts up 2+WAR in any form I'm gonna be raiding this site with reminders, in a positive way, of course.

Mike,

There is an article with the full report from Atkins where he says they likely won't let Sanchez reach 200 innings because of the past 2 seasons and that if he is pitching well enough to even get to that discussion, they will limit his innings. I think it was the Sportsnet summary of the luncheon if I'm not mistaking.

There's a lot of talk of untradeable players or contracts. For sure, anybody or contract I would agree is tradeable. To me, when discussing untradeable players it's basically all in reference to one idea:

Can you trade this player and get back something of value greater than what you gave up?

That's what my list was based on so I guess I should have called it "worthwhile players to consider trading" or something to that effect. I think the Jays have 2 position player/incumbents that you can trade for something of equal or better value for the sake of bettering the team, otherwise it's just prospects or pitching.

Nobody wants the old vets from any team even if they're still performing well. Except, maybe the Mets.

Without having to stretch the truth about Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, who's the #1 Ace of the Rotation? IMO, the Jays don't have one and the nearest maybe is at best 2021 or 2022 away if then. Eventually the Rotation needs to be much better, possibly real soon. A rebuild isn't what you think it is. Just ask Tampa Bay.

The Jays had 73 wins last year.
J.A. Happ did what he could and did it well until traded. Marco Estrada just couldn't get it going. Jaime Garcia was a nonentity. Neither Sanchez or Stroman were much more than adequate Mid-Rotation Starters.
The Jays were missing their Closer and had some questions in the Bullpen with a few underachievers.
The Outfield had it's problem with both Offensively and defensively.
Catching needs to improve and get better.
The Infield needed improvement and better Defense.
Who says this years Team can't be better?

4/67M for Eovaldi. That's a bit much.
Cleveland only needed 3/27M to extend Carrasco with another 10M option for the 4th year.
Clearly, he likes playing there.

The Jays will have 76-78 wins next year.
The Rotation:
Aaron Sanchez will not be throwing 200 innings next year (Atkins). He will be problem free and healthy as well. That's an improvement.
Marcus Stroman should be healthier to start the Season, as a result more effective. That's an improvement.
Ryan Borucki is a pleasant surprise. He's already better than Jaime Garcia, Marco Estrada and possibly even J.A. Happ. That's a big improvement
1) The Jays are acquiring 1 or 2 Starter depending on the caliber/ease of the first acquisition. Inhouse options are very good.
This could be worth 3-5 more wins, if not more.

It is highly unlikely the Jays will acquire a front end starter, let alone a #1. I expect a couple of back end guys to be acquired one way or another.

Cleveland only needed 3/27M to extend Carrasco with another 10M option for the 4th year.

The deal is really a 10M option being exercised followed by 3/38 or 2/27.

The Jays will have 79-83 wins next year.
The Bullpen:
Ken Giles is a very effective Closer. As long as he should not have a brain-fart like Osuna, he should not miss any time. He's that healthy.
Tim Mayza has turned into a quality late inning option for the Jays. Both Mayza and Giles had great Septembers and look to be great long term options for the Jays.
Ryan Tepera is a quality anytime option for the Bullpen. As long as he's the worst option and everyone is better, this will be a great Bullpen.
2) The Jays will be after 2-3 Relievers. Multi-inning Relievers are greatly needed. In house has quality options available at need. This is easily worth 3-5 or more wins for next year.

Just remember, relievers are super-variable outside of Rivera - there is a reason he will go into the HOF on the first ballot while most relievers wait years.

For the pen I hope the Jays do the usual signing of good arms who had issues last year for whatever reason. Promote kids who don't have any real endurance to the pen as well.

Rotation should be Stroman/Sanchez/Borucki/whatever/whatever #2. Don't be surprised if Gaviglio gets a second chance. Reid-Foley I expect to be the #5 unless trades/free agents happen. Pannone I see as #6, then whatever kid gets hot in the minors. I'm positive the Jays will sign at least one retread (vet who had issues in 2018 or a free agent who cannot find a home with the playoff contenders) this winter for the #4 slot, pushing the rest back a slot. Also a few solid AAAA types who will know there is an open competition for the #5 slot and injury prone guy in the #2 slot which opens opportunity which is what I suspect most AAAA'ers are looking for.

You never know who is untradable. Remember January 2011?

From an OC paper:
Wells’ $23 million salary in 2011, and the $21 million he will make in each of the following three seasons, is partially offset by the subtractions of Napoli and Rivera. Rivera will make $5.25 million in 2011. Napoli has filed a $6.1 million salary request in arbitration; the Angels countered at $5.3 million.

Wells (owed $85M/4) and maybe about $5M in cash for Napoli (still in arbitration) and Rivera!!!!

That was such a crazy good deal that even when followed up by foolishly giving away Napoli, it was still a crazy good deal.

If that could happen nearly 8 years ago, you never really know.

Just remember, relievers are super-variable outside of Rivera...

Roberto Osuna without the brain-fart would still be the Jays' Closer, his fourth straight year. He's not slowing anytime soon.

Very, very few pitchers will get Rivera's opportunity. That said, as long as your Closer is effective, keep him. There are very few pitcher who are able to pitch effectively in the very high upper nineties - triple digits. You never trade them away, just acquire more.

I think that's a real overpay for Eovaldi, likely due to his outstanding performance in this post season. His career numbers are nothing special, ERA 4.16, WHIP 1.348, K/9 7.0, and he turns 29 in February. Highly unlikely the Red Sox get good value on this deal, but with their virtually unlimited budget, who cares? We'll just keep spending, baby, who cares if we pay too much.

Atkins was very forthright in his interview. Not only the quote about Tulo.

About Travis: "He’s got to come and win that job."

I expect Martin to be traded either for another big contract that fits the team better (pitcher) or the Jays eat a lot of money. Realistically, you want Jansen and Maile in the majors. I expect the Jays to let Travis win the job at 2B if he can which is what they should do. If he can't, he has options so can be sent down. Still a lot of question marks though. Jays will try to trade Sanchez and Stroman but value is probably too low now (certainly for Sanchez). Problem is that their value will start going down the less contract they have left. What will the Jays do in CF? Probably still Pillar but I can see the Jays trying to do something there as well.

Twins just made another nice signing, getting Schoop on a 1-year deal at $7.5 million plus incentives, He was one of the best 2nd basemen in baseball in 2017, 12th in MVP voting, and just turned 27 in October. This after signing Cron, who OPS'd .816 despite playing half his games in Tampa (.869 OPS on the road), for a 1-year $4.8 million deal. Their lineup is taking shape nicely, and in that weak division, without 2 of the top spending teams, it doesn't take nearly as much to make the playoffs. They need a starter or two - maybe Pineda will make a good comeback from injury.

If that could happen nearly 8 years ago, you never really know.

There are still many dubious decisions made by today's GMs, but I don't see another Tony Reagins out there. The bar has gotten higher.

If you trade guys that are in the rotation, you need to get at least guys that are projected to make your 40 roster.
So if the value of Stroman and Sanchez is not high enough now, might as well keep them.
They are not even expensive.

Notice that the Yankees are not finding the value they seek on Sonny Gray.
They don't see too keen on going 3 years with Happ either.
I think Happ will likely get 3 because there are like 6~8 teams in talks with him.

Extending Sanchez/Stroman is not impossible if they turn a corner.
I'd rather they both return to form and the front office scrambles to find value than they both keep stinking.
There is still the option of a QO if they only show up on their contract year.

If you are a mid to big market team then you probably have room to go ahead and resign Stroman and Sanchez now. They're cheap and unproven enough right now to not become a Homer Bailey type of albatross contract. If you're gonna have the room in the future then resign them now and hope they fill their potential and you save some money by doing it early. Worked for the Indians with their core pitching. If pitching is really valued this highly then you can deal with having too many pitchers later.

What's the alternative? Wait for them to break out or return to their career levels and then resign them at a much higher rate? Or just ride it out and take the picks when they leave and then what...hope that you have enough sub 25 year old pitchers that will guide you to the post season? You're probably going to have to end up trading for pitching if you go that route.

I realize that you're probably going to have to be trade for pitching anyways when contention comes, but having Stroman and Sanchez will help support an ace or even a move to the bullpen to help the overall staff.

One alternative I missed is letting Stroman and Sanchez hit their stride and form this year and then trading them for prospects to be traded later for better pitching during contention.

I don't view Morales and Martin as the same situation. Morales was the Jays best hitter for two-thirds of the season, and brings the same "veteran presents" Martin does.

I don't get the fascination with Martin's super sub thing either. Not sure what the numbers were, but he looked pretty average at third.

I find it offensive, and disingenuous, to call domestic violence a "brain-fart".

I don't think it was your intent to be offensive, Richard, but I don't think it's an appropriate way at all to characterize what Osuna did.

I am very interested in trying to figure out how this FO thinks.

1) They have experience with injuries. Positive take on a bad situation.
Sanchez 2014 (partial), 15 and 16 300+IP. In 2017 & 18 less than 150 IP.
Stroman is mentally tough and mostly durable. Coming back from the fluke 2015 ST injury. 200+IP in both 2016 and 2017. Many pitchers have a year of injury. So 2018 is acceptable.
In 2017 Goins had to play a lot due to the injuries to Travis and Tulo. IMO he did a great job considering that was not his role.
IMO the FO passed the potential problem of injuries by getting depth.

2) They added as much talent as they possibly could depending on the teams standings. The July 31, 2017 and 2018 trade deadlines were quite productive.
I think they really should have traded for Int'l cap room. Since they did not I consider that a failure.

3) The rebuild picked up a lot of steam July 31, 2018. But nothing too good was acquired. Because of the rebuilding phase a rule 5 pick can be made without hurting the non playoff expectation. Someone with good talent would be nice. G Bell, K Gruber. But that is not likely available.

4) How will they allocate playing time to the kids and veterans. This is new for the FO. No experience except Sept 2018.

Need another reason to get the Athletic?  Eno Sarris has a fine article on the newest in data-informed player development.  He leads off, of course, with the Astros and then moves on to other teams including the Blue Jays new hitting coach (and former Astro) Dave Hudgens. Rogers, of course, does have a potential (theoretical?) tech advantage, which they should use. 

If you are a mid to big market team then you probably have room to go ahead and resign Stroman and Sanchez now. They're cheap and unproven enough right now to not become a Homer Bailey type of albatross contract. If you're gonna have the room in the future then resign them now and hope they fill their potential and you save some money by doing it early.

Sanchez' agent is Scott Boras. Boras openly complained in the press a few years back when the Jays couldn't come to an agreement on a pre-arb raise and the Jays just re-upped his minimum salary contract.

Sanchez isn't signing anything. His days as a Jay ended the second he signed up with Boras as an agent. Boras doesn't do discounts or`pre-FA buyouts

I'm not sure I'd even want Sanchez on an extension. How much would it cost to buy out some FA years in a world where Nathan Eovaldi is worth 17 million a year?

Eovaldi would not make sense for Rogers and the Jays, who are cheap, but he makes sense for the high-spending Red Sox. He’s relatively young, he throws hard, and he performed well last year. He could be a useful trade chip in two or three years if the team goes through a rebuilding or retooling phase. In other words, he’s an asset who required only cash (no prospects or draft picks) to acquire, and the commitment in cash and years really wasn’t that much for a team like Boston.

The Jays will always be at a disadvantage in the AL East because the Yankees and Red Sox can augment their rosters each year in this way (and then sometimes flip the players acquired for prospects, as the Yankees did with Miller, Chapman, Beltran, etc.). This is why Boston and New York will always claim the lion’s share of AL East titles and WC berths, while Toronto, Tampa, and Baltimore fight over the scraps.

I think the key as one of the smaller market teams in the division is to try to punch higher than your weight — say, to make the postseason 25-30% of the time instead of 10-15% of the time. That would be a worthy accomplishment, in my view.

Of course, even if you project Eovaldi to deliver ~10 WAR over 4 years, you kinda need them to mostly happen in back half of the contract.

Well, I  don't think that it's a good idea to write off 2020. SeeTampa 2008.

You won't make it to the World Series without beating the AL East anyway, so it's mostly a non factor.
The key thing is that the Jays have fielded terrible teams that have struggled against bad teams while mostly holding their own against division rivals. The difference has more to do with failing to develop players than failing to sign expensive free agents.

Jose Altuve is up to 2 extensions and he's a Boras client.
It's all about the circumstances and what the player want.
Boras jumped on Sanchez after he had a breakout year and started to make some noise.
Sanchez has been an horror show since then. It doesn't matter if he's a Boras client or not with those numbers.

Russell Martin is a huge star in Montreal and draws viewership from Quebec.
At least he used to. The French language news has been following Martin rather than the Jays since he broke out with the Dodgers.  So in a way, he's more valuable here, those 2 games in Montreal in March would look very weird without him there. At least there's Guerrero now.

I have trouble understanding domestic violence. It should not ever happen. I can understand anger, it's much too common. I cannot conceive that much lack of control unless it "short-circuits" rational thought. I cannot understand applying the anger to one's spouse. I called it a 'brain-fart' because I knew what I meant, apparently no one else did. My apologies for the unintentional misunderstanding.

To be clear, I’m not saying the Jays are a small- or medium-sized market team. But they have demonstrated that (with the brief exception on 1992-93) that they are unwilling to spend like a large-market team. They lack the ambition to be one of the truly great franchises (Boston, on the other hand, is ambitious in this way). Hence my comments above. My expectations and prescribed approach for the team are based on its track record of spending (and excuse-making) over the last quarter-century.

Too many people are totally writing off the 2019 Season. The Jays won 73 games with a poor Starting Rotation, no Closer for about half a year, no Josh Donaldson just to name a few.

Better health, more experience, replacing underachievers with better players could really change expected results. A better Rotation could be worth at least 3-5 more wins with expected changes, but possibly 7-10 more wins if they really upgrade.
Better health, more experience, replacing underachievers with better players could really change expected results.
A full-time Closer, quality Lefty and a better chosen Bullpen could be worth at least 3-5, if not more wins.
Better health, more experience, replacing underachievers with better players could really change expected results. Addition by subtraction is a major difference with the replacements making a big difference, at least 5-7 or more wins better.

That's a minimum of 84 wins. It could be an unexpected 95 wins. These Jays can be anything.

But they have demonstrated that (with the brief exception on 1992-93) that they are unwilling to spend like a large-market team.


Rogers wasn’t the owner in 1992-3.  It’s a Rogers problem.

I think it's likely, for better or worse, that the Jays are going to wait until they get comfortable with the big league team before they spend big for expensive external improvements. That means incorporating all the young players onto the big league roster and then determining that they are a couple of pieces away. Maybe that's a year from now, or more likely prior to the 2021 season, but either way that time is not now.

I think someone like Kikuchi, if they view him as a piece worth adding, would be the only FA that makes sense since he will come with six years of control one way or another, so that would fit the Guerrero timeline, and he'll only be 30-year's old a little more than half way into the deal. Whether the FO outbids other teams or even has interest in him to begin with is another story.

As far as Eovaldi, the Jays would have had to significantly trump that offer in order to get him to sign, and getting into a bidding war with Dave Dombrowski is a terrible idea. There is no number he's afraid of, especially now with Boston's payroll.

Greenfrog,

The Jays don't need to spend $200 million to be a top spending team. They don't need to be top 5 to be spending like a big market team. They've spent over $135 million the past few years, and to me that's big market.

Teams budget is relative anyways. There should be a way to see team budget including value of player instead of budget. So for example, if I look at Blue Jays there will be a summary that shows players who were worth more than their salary and vice versa. If you can have the equivalent of a $200 million dollar salary for $120 million what difference does it make? A WAR translation into dollar figures broken down into a budget would be good.

Twenty-five years, and precious little to show for it (it took a brilliant series of moves by the last GM, and some luck, to construct what was essentially a one-year wonder of a team). And payroll is about to go way down again, in case you haven’t heard.

Boston and New York are being run at least as competently as the Jays, with 50-100% more cash to spend on players and coaches/management. Of course they are going to prevail more often than not in the division. The Jays have to be creative and look for ways to sometimes be good enough to get into the playoffs (where anything can happen), and once in a blue moon be very, very good.

Rogers just wants to maximize profits. For them winning is a nice bonus, but it’s secondary to competing in that sweet spot where fan interest is sufficiently maintained without having to do what it takes to consistently be among the very best (which would erode profits too much, in their view — which, in the AL East, may well be correct).

Juventus, Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Manchester United, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox...yes, the Toronto Blue Jays are not comparable to those global teams. If they had the viewership and audience of those teams they would probably spend more money.

Leafs, Habs...theres lots of storied franchises that can't outspend other teams any more because of league rules or general neutrality.

I think that you think that any team that doesn't invest over the moon like some of the global franchises listed above that have been around for much longer than the Jays...you think they're happy to not win as long as they're making money. It's obvious that the more they win the more money they will make but like any non global franchise (Juventus made $65 million in Ronaldo jersey sales in one day) if the chances are obvious that investing for a short term won't pay dividends, like now, wouldn't you want, as a fan, your team to maximize it's window and invest at the right time considering the only alternative is to compete year in and out with the biggest global franchises in the world? The Toronto Blue Jays are not a global franchise - they aren't even the top franchise in their own city so why would you expect them to outspend a team like NYY or BOS who have viewers around the world nevermind one country and who have some of the richest individuals in their cities backing them up?

I don't think the payroll is as big a deal as some make out. The Jays have not been run like a well-run modern team....ever. The way the Yankees, Rays, Astros, etc...bring through cheap pre-arb players and build around them. Imagine the Rays had another $100M to spend. They'd certainly be up there with the Red Sox and Yankees and that's the way the Jays need to go.

I don't think the payroll is as big a deal as some make out

AL East divisional titles since 1993:

New York: 13
Boston: 6
Baltimore: 2
Tampa: 2
Toronto: 1

Yep, payroll is really no big deal in the AL East.

Personally, I want the franchise to draft and develop players so they have enough to fill every position and still have a surplus to trade. We all know Toronto is not a prized destination, not because of Boston and NYY, but because it's in another country, the taxes are high and the team plays on turf. There's also guys who don't like the east cost, because it's far from their family. That affects not just the free agents, but also players with no-trade clauses. If a guy has a 5,7,10 team list, Toronto is probably on it.

Even assuming that signing premier free agents will be rare in Toronto (I'm not convinced that this has to be the case), having a high payroll has other benefits. For example, it permits the team to offer more extensions to its own players, and to take on salary in trades as a means of adding prospects (or relinquishing fewer prospects).

You can occasionally field a very good team on a modest payroll, but it's hard to be consistently very good in the AL East without a high payroll.

I agree with dalimon5 that $135 mil is a high payroll. greenfrog is probably correct too. Payroll is going down. That number is probably $ 90-110 mil for the next 5-7 years. My guess.

Since modern baseball economics arrived (feel free to choose your own exact starting date but I think of the early 80s), there isn’t anything that is as highly correlated to winning as payroll. Nothing else comes close. There are no examples of teams, over an extended period of time, being able to draft and develop their way to overcoming large payroll disparities. The only place where it might even be possible is in the AL Central where there aren’t any large market (maybe not even mid market) teams and there are imbalanced schedules.

Agreed Nigel. Especially the AL East.

The NYY pen had to be extremely expensive.

I was pleasantly overjoyed when Ed Steinbrenner publically complained about being in the WC game. Boston and NYY have to settle for a WC spot since both cannot win the division.

I actually think that the situation has been getting worse, as the wealthy teams like the Yankees are deploying their massive resources more efficiently, making it even harder for the lower-payroll teams to compete at the highest levels (on a consistent basis, at least).

The rules have changed since 1980. Teams like the Yankees cannot sign top prospects while picking last by offering them exorbitant bonuses. Same is true of international free agents.

Things change slowly in baseball.
Gary Sanchez signed with the Yankees in 2009. He won't be a free agent until 2023.

It's true that the Red Sox have the highest pay role, but that is not the reason why the Jays did poorly the last 2 years.
Baltimore has been heading towards a cliff for a while now.
The Rays are the only team limited by payroll in the division.

There is no question Rogers could support a higher payroll if they wanted to.

The idea that Toronto is a lesser market than Boston is plain baloney. TV market is much larger, and the corporate community too. Fenway Park opened in 1912 and is a money machine. Rogers Centre could be too if ownership were so committed.

The significance of related party transactions with regard to Rogers and the Jays basically allows Rogers to frame the team’s financial performance and impact in any way they want.

We have 40 years of Blue Jay history. Success in the 80s+. Followed by a huge 20 year drought.

Something went wrong!!

But we had waves of #1 SPs coming up and added as FAs. That has not ended.

The “nice” Canadian temperament (and the relatively old fan base) may be why fans are generally so accepting of a track record of one division title in well over two decades. Also, baseball journalists are mostly on the Rogers payroll, so they tend to be pretty docile when it comes to pointing out some of these basic facts.

The Sarris article in the Athletic regarding the new moneyball provides an important context to the discussion about teams’ budget allocations for players and player development. Thanks Mike!

My posts disappear before I can submit them, so short posts.

Waves of good and #1 SPs.

4/5 man rotation.

Steib, Key, Clancy.

Hentgen, Guzman, Clemens/Wells.

Halladay, Carpenter, Escobar.

Why no success??

From AA.

Syndergaard, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna. Potential rotation.

The Romero group just before. Not so good.

Future looks good.

Greenfrog,

You take a lot of shots at Rogers/Jays FO. Am I understanding you correctly? Are saying Jays payroll should be higher or are you saying that the payroll should be high and if the latter how high? Should Rogers spend as much as NYY, BOS and LAD? If that is what you mean then maybe offer a reason why it would be beneficial for Rogers to spend in the top 3 payroll category. And why now? If the Jays spend $200 million this year, do you think they will sign Harper, Corbin, Machado, Kikuchi and Keuchel? They would be lucky to have 1 and their payroll would still be low. Or do you think that payroll goes two ways and you don't have a chance of going past $150 million if players won't sign with you. Then the same crowd complains when big budget players are brought in and start declining like TT or DP when the Beauxites turned on resigning him to 6 years. How many posters would be complaining if this FO decided to bring in Stanton and his massive contract? No offence at all intended but why and how can the TBJ invest in top 3 payroll...its not as simple as "ok let's outspend BOS and NYY this year"...especially when those two teams saved money and built their farms while we were throwing our prospects and cash around from 2012-2017.

What makes your stance more perplexing is that ownership could have easily cut bait to save money years ago but they have taken on bad contracts, invested in some of the top prospects and reinvested in the stadium.

Jays should have a luxury tax threshold level payroll that is top 5 in MLB on an annual basis. The only teams that should regularly outspend them are the Dodgers and Yankees. I agree that having significant portions of the media on the Rogers payroll assists them in getting the message out as to why the mid level payroll they put out there is ok.

Saying they have reinvested in the stadium is rather generous. They have done minor tinkering to this point.

They replaced the roof rail system, took out Windows restaurant, ripped up the concrete for dirt infield, replaced the broadcast section with new VIP premium seating. That's Rogers Center. They also spent a fortune in Dunedin and other sports complexes.

Sorry I can't support the idea that front office and ownership hasn't invested nearly enough money into the team because posters are upset with a 20 year drought that ended a few years ago.

It's not getting worse. It's just that it takes a long time to build a team properly.
And the benefits of the old systems will be around for a while still.
The best player on the Yankees is Aaron Judge, drafted 32nd in 2013 for 1.8M.
That pick was a compensation from losing Nick Swisher. They wouldn't be able to do anything like that now..
At best, they'd get a pick in the 70 range and he would have to sign for slot or whatever they could save.

Mookie Betts was drafted in the 5th round. That is still possible, but has nothing to do with payrolls.

Rogers can spend exactly as much money on the team as it chooses to. They are the owners, that is their prerogative. I have zero issue with that. My own view is that the team’s true profitability is hidden and vastly underestimated due to the transfer pricing issues associated with the nonarms length local tv contract. The ratings (even accounting for the difference in Canada v US ratings computations) for a regular season Jays telecast are at or above the best in all of MLB. I don’t think you can call Rogers cheap. Unambitious would be a more accurate description.

Unambitious is a perfect descriptor for Rogers and encapsulates everything they could be doing better but aren't while also acknowledging that they're doing enough and more than average.

NYY, BOS, LAD, SEA all have more sales and viewers than the Jays. Just because you have a lot of Canadians following your team doesn't mean you're some giant.

1. Tons of people in Eastern Canada follow the Red Sox more than the Jays.

2. Less and less people are watching cable and more and more that do watch baseball are finding streams both legal and illegal

3. Outside of Canada - Japan, for instance...i don't know how many Jays hats you will see there.

Comparing the Jays to the Twins or royals is one thing and the ownership blows those teams away with commitments.

Current big leaguer Luis Valbuena and former big leaguer Jose Castillo were killed Thursday night in a car crash in Venezuela.

I’m sorry but the Blue Jays TV numbers when they are winning are better than anyone. And in 2016 they were 3rd in MLB attendance and 4th in 2017. To compare the Toronto market to Kansas City or Minnesota is a fraud. I agree with Nigel, ownership may not be cheap but they are unambitious and winning is not the priority.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2016/10/04/sporsnet-sets-blue-jays-viewership-record-averaging-1-01-million-per-game-for-2016-season/#1eb45c6856d5

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2017/08/24/local-prime-time-numbers-for-each-of-the-29-u-s-teams-shows-mlb-rules-summer-tv/#5085561a204d

Now we know why they kept trying to 'go for it' in 2017-2018. T.V. advertising is always huge money as Baseball is a live event. Winning Baseball generates extra interests and a higher advertising rate.

Rogers plans changes over the course of a year or over the course of many years. Baseball on the other hand is a business that reacts to sudden changes, usually because it must. Thus is born the budget which is good for Business but limiting for Baseball.

The Jays are not small market. They don't get Revenue Sharing or all the extra drafting benefits.

Nobody is saying they are small market. Some of us are challenging the idea that they are as big as top 3 organizations in baseball and that it's unrealistic to expect them to out spend New York, LAD or BOS right now for the sake of having a better chance at winning the division.

One thing to keep in mind with TV numbers is that in Canada, viewers are counted, in the US, it's households.

What I am challenging is the notion that Jays fans should accept that a 10-15% chance (on average) of the Jays’ making the postseason in any given year is acceptable or normal, while the baseline for Boston and New York is roughly triple or quadruple that. My sense is that Toronto fans have become docile or complacent about what level of performance to expect from a lucrative team in a major, fast-growing city with a wealthy owner.

Notice that no one in the front office or at Rogers *ever* states concrete performance goals for the team (such as, “four post-season appearances” or “three 90-plus win seasons” in the next decade”).

Win in your Division (A.L. East), make the Playoffs. That is what it's all about. More than once or twice New York would win the Division. It's margin over .500 would be it's margin of victory over the Jays.

"Notice that no one in the front office or at Rogers *ever* states concrete performance goals for the team (such as, “four post-season appearances” or “three 90-plus win seasons” in the next decade”)."

Which owners ever say that? It sounds to me annoyance that your issue is more and more with the Red Sox and Yankees owners/organizations than the Blue Jays ownership.

dalimon5, why are you settling for a generally substandard product on the field (soon to be two postseason appearances in 25 years), glossed over by a generous helping of verbal nonsense from the front office? You seem to be very easy to please.

Nobody is saying they are small market. Some of us are challenging the idea that they are as big as top 3 organizations in baseball and that it's unrealistic to expect them to out spend New York, LAD or BOS right now for the sake of having a better chance at winning the division.

It's not unrealistic to expect the Jays to spend up to the luxury tax threshold, as every other professional Toronto-based team does in its respective sport.

Again, the team's profitability rolls under Rogers' Media division. Ownership has deemed it unpalatable to present to shareholders a quarter where the teams operations doesn't hit a desired margin. It's a choice made by management to operate like some rich-man's version of the Rays. If the Jays were under a different ownership structure that did not directly hit the income statement of a single corporate owner and intermingled with its other businesses (such as MLSE - a dream scenario), then I have zero doubt the team would have a larger budget.

We'll see, when the time comes again and the young core is in place, how close Rogers is willing to flex to ~$197M (the threshold in 2018).

The nonsense that the front office spews is the same as literally every other front office in every other sport, and I honestly feel that Rogers gets more heat because they charge customers for basic services like cellular, internet and TV so they are the owners that make tons of money off of customers more so than the others or so some feel that way. I don't buy any of the stuff that a front office says.

At the same time I just don't think it's realistic to compare the TBJ to the top 3 teams in baseball for reasons I've already outlined. Am I happy to be complacent with a team fitting somewhere in the middle of the pack with no goal of contending? Of course not. I just don't think the Blue Jays have been doing that and I also don't think we need to be a top 3 budget team in order to win. TBJ were top 7 in payroll this year and that's good enough to compete.

Right now if I look at the payroll and the product on the field I would be mad as hell if Beeston and AA were still here because we have an inferior product and bad value, but that is a product of a bridge period between the aforementioned FO and the new management. It's been way to short a time to pretend that this new FO is sputtering garbage about contending because they are still getting rid of a bunch of the bones of the previous regime's core. If this new management continues to cut payroll and not invest in players long term to support the new core then I will sour on this management team and align with your current views of them, but right now they haven't had their cycle to show what they will do and I am patient enough to wait another 2 years like any baseball fan of teams going through turn arounds - see Cubs, Astros. The difference is I don't think Toronto can or will spend the big money to accelerate a turn around the way the NYY, BOS or LAD can. I'm OK with that because free agents will likely always choose those 3 teams over Toronto and TO can follow a formula closer to HOU or CHC and succeed.

I don't think this management will have limitations of the Rays, Cleveland or mid-smaller market teams.

Better drafting and player development will contribute much more to a successful team than spending more money. We aren't talking about an increase from $100 million to $197 million...the Jays have been spending over $160 million. What will an extra $40 million get you when the teams above you in payroll are going after the same players?

Example, would you have paid Eovaldi more money and more years to outbid BOS or do the same with Corbin to outbid the Nationals? At what point does spending more money at the cost of value meet a breaking point for you guys?

Seriously, you're acting as if the TBJ are wasting resources and screwing over fans like an A's or Rays team...both of which I might add, have outperformed the TBJ.

This starts to feel like politics.
The way the current front office communicates and the poor performance over the last 25 years are not related.
I think they're very clear. 2019 will be a year to evaluate young players and new coaches. It should be more fun than 2014, another non-competitive year, but we'll have to see. The guys who have 1 or 2 years left will be traded if they get an offer they like. It's too early to binge on free agency. Maybe next year. Probably 2021.
What is it you're not understanding?

Thanks Scottt, couldn't have summarized it any better myself.

I fully expect the Jays to do little at the "presently ongoing" Winter Meetings. They've made such an issue about not competing in 2019, they might not be willing to acquire anyone significant. Missing out on talent with just three years remaining could be a mistake.

Beeston at least had the courage to set a clear goal for playoff appearances within a defined timeframe. This is what he said in Jan. 2012 (his prediction actually turned out to be reasonably good, even if it took a bit longer than expected):

Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos was in the hotseat at the team's annual State of the Franchise on Monday night.

And it was team president Paul Beeston who really applied the pressure.

Beeston told a group of about 1,000 season ticketholders during a question-and-answer session at Rogers Centre that he expects the Jays to soon make regular appearances in the post-season.

"In the next five years, I would expect that we would be in it two to three times," Beeston said.

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/jays-close-to-regular-playoff-appearances-beeston-1.1244141

Pretty accurate by Beeston - they made it twice in those 5 years.

I did some digging awhile back and it seems the sweet spot for big profits is around 90 wins for the Jays. At that point you see 3 million plus in the stands and TV ratings of over 1 million viewers per game - a level American teams can only dream of unless you think households have 4+ watching games. via https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2018/07/19/prime-time-tv-ratings-for-each-team-at-the-mlb-all-star-break/#217fee754c4f for mid season 2018 you see the Yankees at the top with 293k households. On average there are fewer than 3 people per household in the USA (check google). So that is under 1 million viewers per Yankee game or fewer than the Jays can expect for a game when in contention.

Facts are fun aren't they?

I might be a bit high on that estimate... via http://3downnation.com/2017/08/09/blue-jays-tv-ratings-even-cfl/ the Jays in 2017 had around 895k viewers per game in mid-season vs 2018 having 706k viewers per game (slower decline than they deserve given how bad the team was last year). I suspect they will drop to 500k or worse by August this year unless the team starts winning. At their worst during the 1994-2014 no playoff stretch I recall games getting around 100k viewers and few wanting to show the games.

No question if the bean counters in Rogers use their heads they'll see a contending Jays team is a profitable Jays team. Just be reasonable and not stupid on how to get there and all will be good. A strong farm is critical, and spending on that is very, very important. Get the best international and draft players you can with the caps, then train the crap out of them once in the system.

NYY D Jeter 1st round 1992. A Pettite 22Round 1990. M Rivera. J Posada 24th round 1990. B Williams. All home grown talent.

Add Millions of $ and they won a lot.

The Jays came in 3rd at best quite a lot. Fairly consistent for Ash and Richardi. They definitely had a low payroll.

Big payroll in 2013 with 2 good years out of 6. 2013 and 14 were hard to understand. In 2017 and 18 our good players were old and/or injured. In 2013, 14 and 15 the farm was used to trade for players. 2016,2017 and 18 the farm was built up. Now the young players have to develop in the majors.

Beeston voided A.A.'s 6 year Pitching contract and then the Outfielder took less term and money to play elsewhere. Both these contracts get signed/stay signed - no one will say the Jays are going for it. What actually happened meant they had to.
What killed Toronto in 2013 was the total disaster of Josh Johnson. The Jays were acquiring a fragile Stud Pitcher who never/rarely pitched in the bitter cold. All I can suggest is better care and usage might have made 2013 relevant. After all, the Jay's were still in contention in late June.

Agreed Richard.

If AA and Beeston weren't notified of their impending release, the Blue Jays wouldn't have traded for Price, Tulo and the rest and wouldn't have made the playoffs so you can throw out the Beeston quote as proof, it's just looking back and seeing what you want to see to support the idea that this new management has less interest in competing.

Actually, I mentioned that quote to directly refute your claim that no one in management or ownership ever states goals for wins or postseason appearances.

Also, I have been generally (though not completely) supportive of the moves the current front office has made. I do not, however, enjoy the corporatespeak it so frequently deploys (it reminds me a bit of how Farrell used to talk). And I think that Rogers could aim higher for, and spend more on, the Jays.

Right now spending wouldn't accomplish much. Who on the free agent market would make a big impact on the Jays? Enough to push them to the 90 win area? Or at least be useful in 2 years when the kids should be adjusted?

My targets with a big budget would be...
Yusei Kikuchi: Entering his age 28 season, if signed would be for 6 seasons, maybe 7 (zero ML experience). Solid control, good K's, should be a solid #3/4 in a rotation right away and should still be solid in 2+ years.

Bryce Harper: Entering his age 26 season, a safe 10 year contract if there ever is one. Will get stupid money probably, a RF/CF with a lifetime 139 OPS+. Seen as a 'no chance' although could be worth the cash.

Manny Machado: also young and damn good but plays 3B (SS was a bad idea) where Vlad will be in 2019. Lots of better places to spend the cash for this team.

No one else jumps out as a solid for 3+ years player. So Kikuchi is the only one the Jays will probably pursue and Harper is the one I think would work out best but there goes 2 arms, a leg, and a kidney to be named later if you want to sign him. $30-40 mil a year for 10 years. Jays have the budget space but it would be a massive amount of eggs into one basket and this management team won't do that.

@jonmorosi

Sources: #BlueJays interested in Mike Fiers and Kendall Graveman, among other free-agent pitchers, to build depth in case Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez are dealt. @MLBNetwork @MLB

Cheap and potentially useful - I see both as good targets for the Jays.

Definitely no to Fiers. His career numbers have been inflated by playing in a lot of pitchers' parks. His road ERAs the last 3 years have been 4.99, 6.08, and 4.65, with lots of HR's (47 in about 210 innings). In the AL East, without a pitcher-friendly home park, he'd get blitzed, and probably put up an ERA around 5.50. Plus, he'll be 34 next June.

A definite no to Graveman as well. He's played his entire career, aside from 4 innings with the Jays, in a pitchers' haven in Oakland. His career road ERA is 5.03, with a WHIP of 1.479. He doesn't strike out very many, and now he's coming back from Tommy John surgery, and will miss most, or all, of 2019. He's another guy like Fiers who would get blitzed playing for the Jays. I'd rather have a look at some of the young guys in the system - those 2 won't help at all. Remember Jesse Chavez. At least somebody turned him into a useful reliever this year.

Fiers is fine for the back end of a rotation. Graveman doesn't K anyone so see him as more as a long man out of the pen. Depending on cost, both would be fine. You can never have too many arms and if the Jays get good offers for Stroman or Sanchez, they need to take them.

That was easy for Beeston to say. He would have known the "payroll parameters".  That same winter, the Jays did the famous Marlins swap and the horrible Dickie trade.

In 2012, the Jays won 73 games.
Arencibia was worth 1.3 WAR, the leagues had no yet figured out he would chase himself out if given the chance.
Of all 9 position players only Bautista and Encarnation were above average hitters.
They never figured out LInd needed to sit against lefties.
That team had Colby Rasmus, Yunnel Escobar, Brett Lawrie and Raja Davis, none of which ended up to much.

The pitching was anchored by Ricky Romero who was on his way to Buffalo.
Brandon Morrow actually showed up that year, but the rest of the rotation had ERA over 4.
Aaron Laffey, Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison.
Ladies and gentlemen, the future is bright.
Beeston was full of it. Had he been honest he would have said "I know our players are no good, but in a year, we'll trade almost all of them for overpaid veterans and if that doesn't work, 2 years alter we'll trade away the farm system to plug the holes."

Also interesting in all of this is that the Marlins would have had a pretty good team in that same time line if they had the money to sign some free agent pitching.

"Rogers wasn’t the owner in 1992-3. It’s a Rogers problem."

yup. worse owners than interbrew.

even worse, they finally managed to find a front office that fundamentally, inherently dislikes spending money as much as they do. a front office that literally prefers to be seen as a clever overachieving small team than a winning but inefficient big team. they finally won't have a JP or AA embarassing them in public by complaining about payroll restrictions.

and seemingly they've managed to train a large swath of the fanbase to have a kneejerk disdain for big contracts as we'll...though we'll see exactly how large a swath that is when we see what happens to attendance and tv ratings.

an interesting dynamic to watch is that they used to be able to rely on MLSE being even more terrible owners, but that company has completely turned around, decided that winning is everything, and have installed that as a priority in all hires and expenditures. we'll see how Toronto reacts to the jays going back to eternal cheap mediocrity now that they have elite nhl and NBA teams to compare to.

and remember this above all - the concept of needing to be uncompetitive because you're "rebuilding" is myth. a con pushed by bad management to sell their performance when it doesn't sell itself. good teams win while building, and build while winning. 4yrs into our new front office and the only optimism is based on some great prospects inherited from the last GM who was always trying to win above all.

"Beeston was full of it."

uh uh. the president who had to the balls to clearly unequivocally state the only goal was to WIN, and who "coincidentally" is the only president in franchise history to make the playoffs (on 2 different occasions separated by 2 decades), was clearly "full of it".

Nobody is brainwashed by the FO or Rogers. It's calling a spade a spade. This is not a Rogers issue. Are they frustrating owners? Yes. Could there be worse owners? Yes. The problem was this team was never built properly by any of the GM's under Rogers' watch. The AA playoff run was designed for 1.5 years, and even that was after he had one foot out the door and made mid-season trades he may not have made if he had many years left on his contract. After that there would be an inevitable drop and the current FO is stuck having to transition past it.

According to Cot's, the opening day payroll in 2017 was almost $40 million more than the opening day payroll in 2015. I have no reason to doubt that a similar hike won't exist if the team looks prepared for a run in two years. If anything, the one negative with Rogers is they hike payroll too soon (after 2004, after 2012).

The way the current FO is building the team is really the only way to do it under Rogers and the current system in MLB. Build a team of elite, young, cheap talent, and then surround them with vets when the time is right. The JP and AA models of creating short windows either is not going to work or in AA's case will work but only for a very short amount of time.

"“Right now if you think about the outfielders that we could have going into the season and if you thing about the (infielders) and catchers that we have, we could go into the year without making an addition and field a major league team,” Atkins said. “It’s not our goal, but we could field a major league team that could be relatively competitive — not competitive enough — but that’s a good starting point.”"


everybody excited yet?

Here comes that poster with the baton on the dead horse...

Not only is the horse dead, but it's been strung up like a pinata.

There's no candy coming out of there, folks. Only a gooey, vile, stinky mess.

Regarding payroll and Beeston's for 2 playoff positions. It goes like this. Pennant race followed by playoff position or not. If a playoff position is achieved, extra games are played 3-15 possibly.

That is a lot of extra revenue. The playoff games have a payroll expense of zero.

that horse is clearly still kicking, given the posts on this thread.

Big contracts are a major risk for a ML team. We saw the mess with Delgado's back in the early 2000's and how the Jays management often seem to panic when they have a big contract on the roster. I have no problem with them going out and, say, risking $300 million on Bryce Harper - not my money. But the issue is if he isn't an MVP candidate then how will the GM act should the team find itself out of contention? Will he do the same old 'if I didn't have this contract to deal with all would be good' or would he be adult about it and just work around it and see it as a sunk cost.

Right now, based on FanGraphs estimates, a 3 WAR player is worth around $30 million a year so Harper should easily be worth that kind of deal. In his 7 years he has been estimated to produce $235.6 mil of value, or $33.7 mil a year roughly. Given his age a 10 year deal isn't insane, so a $300 mil contract could make sense. Is it a major risk? Oh yeah. Whoever signs him has to have backup plans for how to handle that big a payroll hole should he get hurt. But the Jays have a $150 million payroll potential based on the past few years, so worst case a $30 mil contract leaves $120 mil to play with which is more than many teams spend in total. If he goes to $40 mil as some think then I'd walk away as he only had one year that high via FanGraphs.

I guess the big question for the Jays is who will help them get to the magic 90 win level where the park and viewers peak? And who will do that for the longest time?

As we dump on Rogers for being a massive company that "cheaps out" on the Blue Jays, remember that it is run as three separate divisions. The Media division, in which Sportsnet and the Blue Jays operate, contributes about 3% of the cash flow of the entire company.

They operate on tight margins (8%) and don't have much room to play with on transfer pricing between Jays and Sportsnet. They are fighting for a small margin on advertising revenue / TV contract.

Mike Green, I agree completely that they can and should spend more. Not allowing AA to add payroll at the deadline in 2014, for example, when they were in a WC spot and could have conceivably made the post season with some help was not good.

My main point was if the team was built the right way, or at least allocated their resources better, then Rogers wouldn’t be an issue. In two years if the Jays looked primed for a Braves 2018 type of leap forward then absolutely Rogers should step up. But the team has to be built properly. That’s more important.

"The AA playoff run was designed for 1.5 years, and even that was after he had one foot out the door and made mid-season trades he may not have made if he had many years left on his contract. After that there would be an inevitable drop and the current FO is stuck having to transition past it."

This isn't really accurate. Even in retrospect the AA deals at the end were good. Paying too much money to Tulo now after making the playoffs is better than paying too much money to Reyes with likely no playoffs.

In reality, there are very few ways in which Media is integrated with Wireless and Cable. You can't just integrate thinga rhat aren't related.

Tulo was OK. All those other pieces didn't work that well, starting with Latroy Hawkins in the playoffs. Price was one of several rentals.
Tirado and Cordero for Revere who was average. Valentia was dropped for nothing. Pompey could have done the job.
Lugo for Pennington. 
Brentz, Wells and Rassmussen for Lowe.

And then there was the 2015 deadline deal not made: Zobrist for Tellez (plus other prospects?). Zobrist may well have been enough to put the team over the top that year. Anthopoulos has said that that is the one trade not made that he regrets.

Tulowitzki would likely have been more effective had Pillar not run into him that summer, fracturing his scapula.

I don’t believe the Jays will spend anywhere near the luxury tax threshold in the next seven years (they should do this, of course).

Needs some explaining, ayj.  How is Media not “integrated” with Wireless and Cable?  Are you using titles of divisions of the company as used internally, or what? 

Correct, Dewey. The Wireless and Cable divisions are the two primary divisions of Rogers Communications. I don't think that there are material ways in which "Media" impacts the business of "Wireless" and "Cable". I'm open to further education.

Apologies for the typos in the previous post.

Well, we’re talking different languages, ayj.  You’re talking business-speak.  To me those are just arbitrarily separate categories -- Wireless, Cable, Media -- to satisfy all the bean-counters.  In practice, of course they’re “integrated”.  The ball team, the stadium, the TV network, the games that are broadcast, in common parlance, are inter-related -- synergistic.  All part of the whole shebang.  To think of them as separate entities seems to my very unbusiness-like mind as merely accountancy gamesmanship. 

All the free (or at least below market) advertising Wireless gets on the broadcasts, not to mention in Rogers Centre itself would definitely have an impact.

"As we dump on Rogers for being a massive company that "cheaps out" on the Blue Jays, remember that it is run as three separate divisions. The Media division, in which Sportsnet and the Blue Jays operate, contributes about 3% of the cash flow of the entire company"


the poor dears.

maybe instead of heroically trying to save our shoddy moneylosing franchise they should just wipe their hands of it and sell it to some poor sucker.

I am not sure that the advertising is free, or below market, or if it even makes an impact.

ugly, i can't tell if you're mad at ownership or management, or the whole world.

my perspective is that i am fine with a payroll of $165m in a $195m tax threshold world. Rogers Communications as an owner seemed fine with this contribution. current management has always seemed eager to start over.

careful what you wish for in an owner.

We are no longer in a $195m luxury tax threshold world. The threshold is going up. Over the next few years, it will be $206m, $208m, and $210m. So, in 2021, a $165m payroll will be $45m below the threshold.

165/195 * 215 = 182m

great.

ayj, are you taking the over or the under on a $182m Jays payroll in 2021?

Under. Management's choice (or circumstances dictate), not ownership's.

I will say one thing about Rogers Media that might be impacting or pressuring the Jays. I think that NHL TV contract might be a bit of an Albatross. (It might be mitigated now because i think the NHL may have allowed Sportsnet to sell more adds during games). The club may have been asked to show more profit (cut costs) to compensate. I'd have to do a lot of research to figure that out. It will be interesting to see if they bid again next time around.

There's a lot Jays fans who cheers when the Leafs lose or don't care about hockey at all.
I cancel all my sports packages during the winter.

If Rogers is run by smart people (and I'm sure they are) they won't let losses in one area (NHL) affect how they run another (Jays). If adding $50 million to the payroll of the Jays will bring in $60 million more revenue (for example) then they will spend the $50 million. To say 'no' to that is just losing $10 million on top of the money lost on the NHL. Now, if advertisers can shift for free from one to the other that is a dumb move as one or the other will be worth more, thus shifting all buys to the cheaper one and reducing the potential profit a winning Jays team produces.

The smart move, if they think the Jays will do well, is to keep ad space open and sell it closer to the game time (ie: weeks ahead instead of months) but if they think the Jays will suck then selling the season ahead of time makes sense. Either way though the teams performance this year affects next years bottom line. A winning team = more revenue. If that is more profitable or not is hard to measure for us as we don't have the behind the scenes figures but I am very, very confident that how the NHL deal does has little to no effect on it.

As to how Rogers is as an owner - I think of them as very good ones. They stay out of the teams hair for the most part beyond reminding them that profits are king, while being rich enough to afford pretty much any budget they want ahead of time. Interbrew was a bad owner, Labatts a lot like Rogers (look better thanks to Gillick & Beeston, but remember they rarely if ever signed free agents pre 1991/1992 offseason). Sure beats having a owner who wants the world to pay attention to them (see Baltimore, NYY with George Steinbrenner), or one that is super-cheap (Tampa Bay), or just horrible (Mets who are still paying Bobby Bonilla as a player).