Considering all possible moves going forward, three to ten more names could have to come off the 40-Man. Some of the questions are:

1) Too many good Catchers, all MLB-competent. Who goes?
2) Neither Yangervis Solarte or Richard Urena have a place on this Team. Can they be traded?
3) Anthony Alford (24) hit bottom in 2018. While he might be better, chances are he'll never hit for power. Does he stay?
4) Jonathan Davis (26) is a decent Outfielder, but at best barely a 4th Outfielder. Does he stay?
5) Dalton Pompey was the only player not called up in September. I'm sure he's DFA'd or nontendered.

The Jays will make trades. There are 17 pitchers to consider for the 40-Man amongst many other non-Pitchers. I do not envy the Jays decisions going forward.

They only needed to free some space for their injured players, Cruz, Tulo and Merryweather.
Maybe some extra room for a temporary waiver claim?

Solarte and Leiter should be kicked off eventually..

MLBTR predicts the Jays will sign Trevor Cahill. Fairly unlikely, but a starter should be their only get.

Baseball reference has 2019 predictions.Not sure what model they're using.

If anyone is planning on watching the AFL Fall Stars game tomorrow night on MLB network.
don't miss the start as both Vlad and Biggio in starting lineup, hitting 3rd and 4th. Pearson is SP although pitchers will only go 1 or 2 innings.

Pompey is an interesting name as far as the 40 man roster. Based on 2018 it looks like he may not be back, but the team is clearly heading into a youth movement, and with Montoyo having a ton of experience dealing with AAA players it might be worth a shot to see if Pompey is fixable. It's not like the expectations are high. He looks like a 4th OF type, and the Jays will need one in 2019 anyway. I think Pompey has a better shot of being a big league bench player than Davis or DSJ, but obviously the latter two have options. With Pompey it's either now or never.

Other than him, it looks like a safe bet that Solarte and Leiter will be taken off the 40 man soon enough. From there it will be a bit more unpredictable.

Pitchers the Jays might be looking at:

Gio Gonzalez 2 Years / 24 Million
Anibal Sanchez 2 years / 22 Million
Matt Harvey 2 Years / 22 Million
Trevor Cahill 2 Years / 22 Million
Lance Lynn 2 Years / 16 Million
Derek Holland 2 Years / 15 Million
Wade Miley 2 Years / 12 Million
CC Sabathia 1 Year / 8 Million
Ervin Santana 1 Year / 6 Million

Personally who would I look at? Yusei Kikuchi at 6 years 42 million seems like a good fit as a guy who can establish himself in the majors over the next two years and still in his prime in the 2021 window. The jays made a similar play on the international market with Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

From the list of likely targets I would probably go after Lance Lynn who both xFIP and xwOBA liked more than his results, and fits into the Jays fastball heavy approach. He generally has had pretty good durability outside of his TJS.

For those who want to make there own decisions.

Yusei Kikuchi LHP, 27: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kikuch000yus&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
Gio Gonzales LHP, 33: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
Derek Holland LHP, 32: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollade01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
Wade Miley LHP, 32: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
CC Sabathia LHP, 38: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml

Anibal Sanchez RHP, 35: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
Matt Harvey RHP, 29/30: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvema01.shtml
Trevor Cahill RHP, 30/31: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cahiltr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
Lance Lynn RHP, 31: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml
Ervin Santana RHP, 36: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

This is where the Jays should be looking for a Free Agent Starter.

Cavan Biggio is now starting to hit in the AFL with a .256/.404/.465 slash line though 13 games, and perhaps he might have a Dan Uggla upside to his game after all. Note: Espinal sits at .250/.348/.375 through 10 games, which is ok.

For his part, Vlad has a mini slump going and is hitting .393/.443/.508.

Glad to see Chris Woodward get the managerial position in Texas. Great Toronto connection.

I predict Baldelli will be a bust in Minny (would've been a hit here with the front office heavily supporting)

I'm super optimistic about this team finding out its identity in 2019. Dark horse to be in contention in September but more likely we will close the gap with BOS by finding our identity in 2019. I'm interested in your thoughts:

- will Stroman/Sanchez/Giles be part of next contention and if not what do we get for them?
- Gurriel, Drury, Diaz, Biggio...who stays who goes? Groshans and Smith up in 2020
- Hernandez, Grichuk and Tellez...do any of them stay for next window?

If these issues can be decided in season after sample sizes then 2020 can be about investing in free agency to augment the 2019 (end of season) team upgraded via trades/promotions and send offs (Martin, Tulo, Smoak, Morales)

If these issues aren't decided in season and management decides this off season to look at 2021 at the earliest for serious contention then expect Stroman/Sanchez,Giles, Grichuk, Hernandez all to be traded by July and then free agency investment when Trout is available.

Another option is the front office calculates and hedges bets this off season on who to keep around and who to trade away from the names above (Smoak, Morales, Russell, Tulo we already know they're not in the plans)

Pre-Primer Reference Below

2019/20 free agents:
Bumgarner
Sale
Goldschmidt
Pineda
Smyly
Porcello
Cole
Kris Davis
Puig
Arenado


2020/21 Free agents
Trout
Sanchez
Stroman
Hendricks
DeGrom (too old)
Paxton (borderline too old)
Gausman
Osuna (only 26!)
Tijaun Walker
Mookie Betts
Trevor Bauer

John Lott confirms that Brook Jacoby has been fired. The other coaches are still on the bubble.

I'm really glad for Woodward, as well. He has a comparable Toronto career to Ryan Goins. Woodward accumulated nearly 1200 plate appearances and 2.7 WAR and Goins had nearly 1400 plate appearances and 3.3 WAR. However, because he was more valuable offensively, without being above-average with the bat, and made less flashy plays, and didn't play for the team during the 2015 and 2016 seasons, he's never been remembered as fondly as Goins was when he returned.

This isn't a specific dig at fans giving Goins a standing ovation when he returned. I just wished fans treated other returning players similarly, as opposed to booing Shannon Stewart for years when he returned, for some unknown reason.

Not surprising news about Jacoby. Whenever analysts talked about which coaches may stick around, Jacoby's name never came up. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hale leave, as managers often want their own bench coaches and Montoyo may have a different version of the role than Gibbons did.

I've heard more speculation that the club would want to retain Walker and Rivera, primarily, but Montoyo seemed open to bringing in a number of new people at his introductory press conference.

I think adding, subtracting and keeping existing veterans will determine the makeup of the Opening day roster. Next year J Garcia, Happ and Estrada, all +32 years old are gone. If SRF, Panonne or Gaviglio take the 4th and 5th rotation spot we are younger. Happ is the only one that can be regarded as potentially good in 2019. I see the other 5 as taking a few lumps next year. So I would go with the youth because they can all be optioned.

Tim Leiper also gone per Lott. Montoyo probably has that job set aside for one of his buddies. The first base coach job is the least demanding and is the easiest to give to a buddy.

Last year T Guerrieri was claimed Nov 6. TB is probably loaded again, so we may pick up something.

Most interesting for me is finding out what happens to John Schneider.

Thomas,

I'm actually shocked that Goins had WAR close to Woodward. I have a hard time putting as much faith in defensive ratings but at the end of the day I guess you have to consider these players similarly in terms of overall value. I just never saw Goins as that worthwhile but the numbers say otherwise.

I would be happy if Schneider is promoted to the major league club, Walker retained (unless replaced by Hentgen) and thenrest of the staff be transplants from the Rays.

I'm good with the Jays stealing as much talent from the Rays as possible.

Coaches are generally not critical from what we see as fans. I remember there was a lot of hype about the hitting coach a few years back - Kevin Seitzer. FanGraphs had someone write that he did amazing things with the kids based on an assortment of stats but in 2014 here the team had a 108 OPS+ vs a 99 the year before and a 115 the following year before going back to a 102 in 2016. How much of that jump in 2014 was Seitzer and how much was natural? Who knows? In 2014 the entire starting 9 and top bench guy outside of Munenori Kawasaki at 2B were above 100 for OPS+. I think he is hitting coach for Atlanta now.

It is very, very hard to measure hitting and pitching coaches. There is so much noise in any stats that deciding what was due to coaching and what was due to the player or plain old luck can be impossible. So I look to organizations like Tampa who have success with kids consistently and say, steal any personnel you can from them.

Vlad has a double tonight in the AFL all-star game. The double was measured at 117mph, in the top 15 players in the statcast era for exit velocity.

Nate Pearson was throwing 103mph in the fall league tonight, although he was taken deep for a home run. Dan O'Dowd on the broadcast felt that Pearson's fastball was fairly straight and he needed the off-speed pitches to work to keep hitters from just looking fastball. Pearson did throw a couple of nice sliders but he likely needs the change and curve to work. It sounds tough to say that for a guy who throws 100 but these days major league hitters can get around on that.

(Not to be a pessimist but Pearson's 103 is as hard or harder than he has ever thrown. Sometimes guys get extra velocity before they need TJ. Again, just noting it, in case.

O'Dowd complimented Biggio tonight, said he had some very professional at-bats.

O'Dowd noted that Vlad's reactions were a little slow. He felt that Vlad started on his heels and not on his toes. He did believe Vlad could improve with practice.

from MiLB transactions

Declared Free Agency Buffalo RHP Taylor Guerrieri
Declared Free Agency Buffalo 3B Jon Berti
Declared Free Agency Buffalo LHP Craig Breslow
Declared Free Agency Buffalo RHP Rhiner Cruz
Declared Free Agency Buffalo 3B Jason Leblebijian
Declared Free Agency Buffalo 2B Tim Lopes
Declared Free Agency Buffalo C Jose Mayorga
Declared Free Agency Buffalo RHP Jake Petricka
Declared Free Agency Buffalo RHP Murphy Smith
Declared Free Agency Buffalo RHP Zach Stewart
Declared Free Agency Buffalo LHP Matt Tracy
Declared Free Agency New Hampshire RF Harold Ramirez
Declared Free Agency New Hampshire C Patrick Cantwell
Declared Free Agency New Hampshire 1B Juan Kelly
Declared Free Agency New Hampshire C Alex Monsalve
Declared Free Agency New Hampshire LF Eduard Pinto
Declared Free Agency Dunedin RHP Emilio Guerrero
Declared Free Agency Dunedin LHP Angel Perdomo
Declared Free Agency Dunedin 2B Ivan Castillo
Declared Free Agency Dunedin RHP Claudio Custodio
Declared Free Agency Lansing C Andres Sotillo
Declared Free Agency Bluefield RHP Josh Almonte
Declared Free Agency DSL C Brayan Rodriguez
Declared Free Agency DSL 1B Anthony Rodriguez
Declared Free Agency DSL SS Pedro Ventura
Declared Free Agency DSL RHP Sergio Leon

Released Buffalo LHP Juliandry Higuera
Released Dunedin RHP Connor Eller
Released Dunedin C Owen Spiwak
Released Lansing RHP Dalton Rodriguez
Released Lansing LF Freddy Rodriguez
Released Vancouver RHP Orlando Pascual
Released Bluefield RHP Joel Espinal
Released GCL RHP Alexander Molina

Retired Lansing LHP Matt Gunter

I assume the Jays want to get down to 38-39 players on the 40-man so they can add someone in the rule V too or on waivers if they want. I don't see the point in keeping Leiter or Solarte and there are a couple of AAA OFer they can remove too pretty easily. Bad news for the Jays is that the market for trading OK position players looks to continue to be very low. Hard to see Jays getting much of anything back for current players. I see the Jays chasing guys like Cahill or Miley or Garett Richards and maybe a reliever or two to flip at the deadline. Pitchers are what bring back value in trades generally so it's the standard strategy for FA's for rebuilding teams.

It looks like the Jays made up their minds on Harold Ramirez and Angel Perdomo who where in my opinion in the conversation for 40 man slots. The house cleaning continues......

Biggio to me has me wondering if he has a chance to be ready late this season instead of early next season.

O'Dowd certainly had a better opinion of Biggio than Keith Law. Law thought Biggio was passive at the plate and let too many good pitches go by him.

Well, they'll have to resign minor leaguers to fill the holes and that's where they should be aggressive on players with upside.

The GM meetings open up Monday and the Jays still need to offload a catcher, Pompey, Travis, Solarte, Barnes, maybe Pillar. They need to clear more spaces.

There will be a few rookies at the meeting and Baltimore doesn't even have a GM.

More on Pearson from mlb.com:

Pearson, the Blue Jays' No. 4 prospect (No. 90 overall), was electric in his lone inning as he topped out at 104 mph with a fastball that never dipped below 101 mph. At one point he threw three consecutive 103 mph fastballs, and he paired his heater with a nasty cutter/slider at 95-96 mph that he used to induce a swinging strikeout of Monte Harrison. He struck out two in the frame.

"The highest I've ever hit before today was 102 mph," Pearson said. "I saw 104 mph and I was kind of skeptical of it was actually real, but everyone in the dugout was freaking out, so I guess it was pretty legit.

"I knew I was only going one inning so I was just going to let it go … really try to throw as hard as I can and give the guys my best stuff."

When you are building a team you go into "asset acquisition" mode. You hope that your good players like Stroman, Sanchez and Giles play well (up to their ability), to can get you a nice return if traded.
Short term veteran signings like S Pearce, C Granderson and J Garcia would get you a prospect that is valued at #15 -40. Nothing much, but has a chance.
A FA like T Cahill, as a few have suggested on a J Garcia type contract, short term, 2 yrs which includes an option makes a lot of sense. The new guy, Stroman and Sanchez can be traded if they are doing well. I expect that every off season young talent on the ML roster will be approached about extensions.

Getting a B Drury, T Hernandez or B McKinney is an asset to a building team but most likely surplus to a contender.

I don't know at what point in the rebuild you trade for a C Yelich. The price would be elite prospect capital. Your window should be open.

I'm not sold on extensions. The Yankees never do them.
Has the Jays lost any players they wanted to retain?
More often than not, the Jays have been hurt by extensions: Wells, Rios, Romero.

Isn't the rebuild over once you've traded the last star? Who's left on the Jays?

Sean Reid Foley, Merryweather, Zeuch, Paulino, Romano, etc..
There's quite a few arms scheduled to pitch for the Jays next year.

You trade for Yelich when he's available, not when it fits your schedule.
Not many teams trade young controllable elite players.

Drury would have to hit to be an asset. Hernandez is 23 and hopefully will crank it a notch.
McKinney is at least a left bat. Besides Tellez and Biggio, the Jays don't have a whole lot there.

I would offer an extension to Grichuk to keep his AAV lower when money might be a little tighter.

The money and term for Stroman/Sanchez has to be right, and I'm not sure there is enough certainty for either side to get something done there.

I too would extend Grichuk if possible.

5 years and $60m seems like a decent extension to give Bautista in hindsight. As for Grichuk, I'm really not sure. Think I'll just sit on a fence and reserve the right to gripe whichever way it goes.

Yankees never do extensions because they have unlimited money. This lets them have multiple options when making decisions, because they don't normally require cost certainty.

The Jays have a lot of money available if needed. They can't sign their entire Outfield or Infield or Rotation or Bullpen from free Agency, if Players decide to leave. Signings the occasional extension gives the Jays the cost certainty they regularly need.

An extension for Grichuk makes sense if the FO believes he can improve over what he has been the past three seasons. I wouldn't be in any sort of rush to lock up a ~2 WAR player, but if they think that 2 WAR can turn into 3-4 over the next few years, then it might be a reasonable gamble.

The Smoak deal is a good model. 2 years plus a player option with a buyout.

I think Grichuk has a Smoak like eventual breakout in him, for all the same reasons. He was almost at a 3 WAR 162 game pace last year including his horrible start and poor CF defense dragging down his value. If you keep letting him hit the ball hard and keep him in right I can see him settling in at 3-3.5 WAR which is definitely worth keeping around.

The risk of extensions is that you're paying poor players.
The Yankees prefer to wait until they know what they are getting, which doesn't always work either.
Currently the market is depressed. Position players are not getting huge contracts.
Brantley was worth 3.6 WAR this year. Le's see what he'll get.

Nobody on the Jays projects to get expensive until 2023.

I sort of understand how S Pearce did well with Boston and not so well with Toronto.
Pitcher Wilmer Font in 2018 did great with TB and terrible with LAD and Oakland. Completely baffles me. 3 of his best games were 3 starts in June 2 against NYY and 1 against Houston.

I really hope C Montoyo can have some successes like this.

It maybe a good time for TB to trade B Snell.

Looking at the Blue Jays Outfield, I'm sure of Randal Grichuk (does everything well), Kevin Pillar (defends better than he hits) and Teoscar Hernandez (hits with power, can't defend). Of these Players, only Randal Grichuk could be better than 2 WAR.

The others who might have value, Billy McKinney (defends the corners, streaky hitter) and Dwight Smith Jr. (does everything well enough) may never hit 1 WAR. Although Billy McKinney might break out.

The Outfielders I am not sure of Anthony Alford (has no power), Jonathan Davis (barely good enough) and Dalton Pompey (out of favor) may not be full time MLB. Anthony Alford might be good enough.

Griffin Conine 21, A-; Forrest Wall 22, AA; Ryan Noda 22, A and others are either too far away or not good enough to matter. But then again, someone might really matter.

This is why an extension with Randal Grichuk would work, he's probably the Jays' best OF. He might be the only one worth keeping over the next three to four years.

Disappointed that Harold Ramirez is gone. He had quite a good season in AA at 23 years of age, hitting .320 with an .836 OPS, 11 HR's, 37 doubles, 16 SB's in 18 attempts. I guess the thinking is that he doesn't walk much, doesn't have big power, and isn't a great fielder. I'd like to have kept him around for another year to see how he fared in AAA. He may be developing into some power, and guys who hit .320 are few and far between these days.

Perdomo was making slow progress, but he was at least moving in the right direction, reducing his walks, hits and HR's allowed in 4 more innings pitched than last year. 100 K's in 79 IP. Like Ramirez, I would have preferred to keep him. Most high-strikeout, high-walk pitching prospects won't work out, but the upside is certainly there. At 24 years old in A+ ball, time was getting short for him, though.

I have no problem with releasing either of those 2. Ramirez does not seem to have the intangibles that the Jays are seeking. They are quite specific about the type of teammates they want and he does not appear to fit the bill.

Perdomo has just been progressing far too slowly and is still quite erratic.

Obviously the FO feels there are better options to fill those spots in the system. I am sure that they tried to deal each of Ramirez and Perdomo without success.

I like both those players as well Dan Gordon, but minor league FAs do resign with their team sometimes, these guys aren't released or gone yet.  In terms of that list of minor league FAs, I could see someone like Berti back, perhaps J-Leb - he strikes me as a future coach and a great role model for AAA players.  Murphy Smith is perhaps the pitching version of that.  If we are talking intangibles, those guys seem to have them.

I wouldn't rule out Ramirez and Perdomo entirely, although I think Ramirez can see the writing on the wall in terms of the number of fringey OFers ahead of him.  If I were him, I'd be looking to move, he clearly stagnated for most of his time in TO. 

I am generally intrigued by how Ramirez turns out, and I would say he has as a high of a chance of becoming the next Max Muncy as any minor league free agent this year... not that there has to be a next Max Muncy of course.

I am starting to like Billy McKinney in the fourth outfielder platoon role. He almost reminds me of a young Adam Lind who I had a strange affinity towards as well. His statcast numbers look good as well.

Dumping Ramirez seems very odd. There must be major personality issues to let a 23 year old in AA who hit 320/365/471 and is hitting 371/413/514 in winter ball go for nothing to minor league free agency.

Ramirez had a solid season, but he’ll be 25 next year, he probably profiles as a not-great fielding LF, and his slash line in 2018 was fuelled by a .371 BABIP. His walk rate was low (5.3% — lower than in 2017). And he was repeating AA.

It would be nice to keep him in the system — maybe he could have a few Melky Cabrera (sans PEDs)-like seasons as an outfielder. But I can see why he was on the bubble this off-season.

creating openings on 40 man roster ... Jays' 40 man is presently at 36 (14p 4c 9inf 8of & 1dh) with more valuable prospects now eligible than spaces available ... an additional as I read it 7 openings could be created (2p 1c 2inf 2of) with deployment of a fiercely hard evaluation practice ...
Looking around at other rosters with an abundance of young pitching I'm drawn to the Atlanta Braves at 36 spaces (25p 2c 5inf 4of) and 21 pitchers on their top 30 prospects list as a possible fit ... obviously AA has a working knowledge of available Jays and is aware of their potential ... so floating names like Pentecost, Maile, Pompey, Smith jr. and maybe Alford and Urena; all younger players that could be argued as redundant to future requirements may be able to pry a youngish pitching prospect or two from Atlanta ... better getting something than losing whomever to Rule 5 for nothing
Also, since it ain't my money, I'd take a long look at Eovaldi as a free agent signing

The Jays will re-sign some of the players who elected free agency this week. Right now the Jays can only protect who they think are their top 40 guys who are eligible. The free agents will see what offers are out there but if the Jays offer is good they could come back.

I thought the Jays may have kept Ramirez but he does have an uphill battle to the big leagues due to lack of defensive value, power, and patience. If he could play CF then they probably would have overlooked everything else, but a LF with one tool is hard to get excited about.

With depth comes hard decisions so we will see a bunch of these fringey 40 man roster types let go for nothing or lost in the Rule 5.

“A LF with one tool” might be overstating it a bit. His power output nearly doubled from 2017 to 2018 (from 19 to 37 doubles and from 6 to 11 HR). His OPS increased by almost 160 points. He had 16 SB (2 CS). And he’s a RH bat, which could work in his favour in the Rogers Centre.

He probably doesn’t have enough patience, power, speed or defense to get a team excited about him, but he did have a good year with an uptick in performance in several categories. He upgraded his status from “non-prospect” to “bubble guy” — that’s progress.

He did hit fewer GB and more FB in 2018 so that was definitely progress, but still not enough to be viewed as a real prospect due to his other limitations. When you factor in it was his 3rd year in AA, he really needed a run in AAA to see what he could do, but I guess not being promoted at some point in 2018 was a hint as to how the organization felt about him.

In the new launch angle/exit velocity era of baseball, Ramirez needs to improve in critical areas to stand out (walks, defense, etc). A BABIP driven high batting average and modest power out of a corner outfielder without plus defensive ability is going to make it difficult for him to move up. Although I could see a fit with an organization like the Royals who like that sort of contact ability.

Maybe this is me missing something, but "a poor man's Teoscar Hernandez" is sort of how I viewed Harold Ramirez, and that's hardly something to be worth getting too concerned with moving on from.

I'd prefer them to keep guys with higher upside, especially at this point of the organizational curve.

Roger Angell on voting. He's 98, legally blind, and can still write.  He is an inspiration.  All those years following and writing on baseball didn't hurt!

The only Minor League Free Agents that get resigned must wait until after the Rule 5 Draft. I think it's highly unlikely that anyone gets signed before that date.

You never know which 4th OF type will have a decent ML career. Zeke and Pillar come to mind. We have enough I think.

Big 100mph FB arms are good too. C Greene for example. I had him slightly ahead of SRF when both struggled last year. We currently have Jackson McLelland and P Murphy. Both need Rule 5 protection. Often that FB is not enough for ML success.

I am not concerned about losing anyone in the Rule 5. Both 4th OF and big FB arms (high 90s) come along often enough.

Depending on when they left, Ross Atkins and his Staff should be in Carlsbad by now. Lots of discussion to set up later moves, but usually not much happens while they are there.

From Buster Olney today:

"Other teams believe the Blue Jays are very open to the idea of moving right-hander Marcus Stroman, as they prepare for a new generation of Toronto players."

There have been rumours of the Jays wanting to move Stroman for a year now. The reported reason doesn't make a lot of sense, it seems like the Jays just want to be rid of him for some reason.

It's interesting to compare the A's with the 2013-14 Jays.

The Jays figured to be competitive but the rotation fell apart due to injuries and they just resigned themselves to losing. Losing just enough in 14 for their first round pick not to be protected when they signed Martin and drafting Jon Harris, Justin Maese, Carl Wise, Jose Espada and JC Cardenas while saving enough money to bet on Reggie Pruitt.
Ah, well. At least 14 wasn't a complete bust with Hoffman, Pentecost and SRF.

The A's signed Brett Anderson on March 22--fresh from the Jays, it turns out. 4.48 ERA in 17 starts.
They inked Edwin Jackson on June 6, just after he was released from the Nationals. 3.33 ERA over 17 starts.
Trevor Cahill was signed on March 11, 3.79 ERA in 20 starts.
Do I get this right? Did the 3 of them earn just 4M combined?
Is their pitching coach really good? Did they just get lucky?

Coachability? Attitude?

If they wanted to move him a year ago, they missed the boat.
They probably need to let him come to camp healthy and deliver some results.

Both Stroman and Sanchez are expected to be 100% healthy for next year and to be better Pitchers next year. That said, I expect Aaron Sanchez to be #1 Starter-caliber next year, just not the Stud Ace he has been. Marcus Stroman is more of a #2/3 Starter, not consistent enough to be more. But if the Jays are unsure of them, trade them.

Neither Pitcher should be taken off the Jays' Trade List, but both Pitchers should/will be expensive. The mandatory return coming back needs to be a young Stud Pitcher (19-22) with 4-6 years of control, plus at least one more asset, preferably a Pitcher.

I suspect that the Jays management team isn't a fan of Stroman for some reason - maybe due to his being close to free agency and maybe his agent has been too aggressive (high price/years) in negotiations. Odds are the Jays factor that in when debating trading a guy who is closing in on free agency.

Stroman has been very vocal on social media about many things and we don't know what has happened, if anything, behind closed doors. The baseball reasons to trade him are sensible: with two years of control left he is likely not going to be apart of the next contending Jays team, and his value declines the closer he is to free agency. The issue is whether it makes sense to trade him now coming off the type of season he had. If another team wants to give up appropriate value for him despite the season/injury he is coming off, then the Jays should absolutely consider it.

Although it might end up being another frustrating sell as trading him a year ago would have been remarkably better from a value standpoint. Seems like that's happening a lot with the Jays lately. Hopefully they will either keep him until his value increases or trade him for something similar to what he would have commanded a year ago.

With Stroman (or any pitcher really) every pitch you let him throw is one more closer to the end for him. Pitchers careers end at any moment. A few Jay examples...

Juan Guzman: became a free agent after his age 32 season (125 ERA+ over 200 IP, his second year in a row over 200). Tampa signed him 2 years, $12 mil (a healthy amount for that time) and he pitched in just one game for them, and 12 in the minors rehabbing.

Dave Stieb: An all star in 1990, 3rd year in a row over 200 IP, 11 straight years with 180+ IP. Just 9 starts into a successful 1991 and kaboom. 96 IP the next year with an ERA+ of 81, then 4 more games the following year and he was done for years before a one season comeback in 1998.

Duane Ward: 1993, age 29, the star closer for a World champ. Just 2 2/3 IP after that.

I could find more easily I'm sure but those 3 came to mind right away. All 3 looked like workhorses who wouldn't break down until they did. Nolan Ryan was famous for having just the one injury early in his career then a workhorse for decades until his arm popped and that was it. Stroman isn't as accomplished as these pitchers but like them is seen as a workhorse and all it takes is one injury then the horse is put down. If the Jays can get something good this winter they should take it - might regret it later but holding on too long they might regret more. 2019/2020 are rebuild years, so anyone who isn't here for sure in 2021 should be traded now if you can get something of value for him. Pitching is always in demand so, while I'd rather keep him, if he and his agent have shown no interest in a reasonable extension the Jays should trade him.

"There have been rumours of the Jays wanting to move Stroman for a year now. The reported reason doesn't make a lot of sense, it seems like the Jays just want to be rid of him for some reason."

Makes a ton of sense. Starting pitchers have a lot of value and the Jays need to get more young talent on the team. Not many other pieces will bring back anything at all. If the Jays want their window to be starting in 2021, why keep a pitcher who will be a free agent then? Much better to get some players who will be around during that period. I wouldn't trade him if there isn't a good offer because there is a decent chance he rebounds and has more value mid-season, but I think Donaldson showed us last year that trading low isn't always trading low. Stroman could have more value next year but also less. A team like the Padres or Braves could be good fits. The Padres for example, have too many OFers in the majors and around 10 prospects on the top-100 list. Guys like Espinoza and Quantrill are not even in their top-10 prospects and would be great pickups for the Jays. So something like Stroman for Cordero and Logan Allen or for Jankowski, Patino and Quantrill etc... could make sense for both teams. Braves have a ton of pitching prospects and they could give up a couple of their 5-12 prospects and it's probably a fair trade.

Sorry Buck and Pat, JD Martinez is not an MVP finalist.

Still, trading Sroman following a difficult year shouldn't be a priority, unless it's part of a multi-players deal that helps clear the roster and improve the team.

I don't think the Jays will trade Stroman this year unless they get pitching back. Given the state of the rotation right now, I can see them waiting another season and hoping he has more value a year from now.

Stroman off a injury prone and bad year would get you back either a middling prospect or two, or maybe a lottery ticket type prospect with their own injury issues. His upside is 2017, a year where he was well above average due to well above average luck in sequencing (Stroman has shown no career skill in being better than his peripherals, so I'm not giving any credit for it, and almost no front office in MLB would either). Stroman's highest value would be to teams with great defense, since the Jays have been terrible for years now.

The Jays simply don't have any MLB players that would bring back a top prospect, unless maybe there is a franchise out there with a GM who feels the heat to compete this year, with a lot of roster holes to fill. Maybe SD, as mentioned above?

With or without Stroman, the Jays have an absurdly large pile of average-ish players. WAR >0, but WAA (wins above average on bbref) between -1 and +1, describes every non-Solarte and Hernandez player on the team last year with more than 100 PAs. The pitching staff was basically the same. If you're building a team, it's a decent foundation to bring in a few superstars in on top of - every position is immediately upgraded by a huge amount no matter where the new stars play. But from a "sellable assets" point of view, the MLB roster (late call-ups aside) is almost useless unless the front office pulls off a swindling (always possible).

Fans always find reasons not doing things. Sometimes it's not seeing the big picture, but sometimes that's all that is seen. Both Sanchez (26) and Stroman (27) are more likely to return to the normal than not, and that normal is pretty good. Neither have more than two years left with the Jays. Neither are likely to sign an extension with the Jays. Acquiring someone better, younger, with more term should always be the object of the Jays. It might not happen, but it's always right to listen.

I enjoyed this piece from BP today on a Durham Bulls beat writer's experiences with Charlie Montoya. It's public access, not behind paywall.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/44207/prospectus-feature-today-is-the-day-for-charlie-montoyo/

Montoyo. Montoyo. Montoyo. 100 times on the blackboard....

If the Padres trade you Quantrill for Stroman straight up you do it in a NY minute. You gain all that control and a solid 3/4 starter with potential for #2 stuff for what, 6 or 7 years?

Stroman makes more sense for teams in actual contention with money like the Braves and Brewers but you probably are looking at A ball or lower prospects. Contending teams want to keep their AA and AAA talent close for additions to the major league club.

I would trade Stroman now for best return package you can get and try to resign Sanchez while you have a chance to afford him. Font tell me to wait for Sanchez to perform better before resigning him because if that happens you're just rolling out the carpet for him and Nora's to go to free agency.

Don't tell me..."

And

"Boras"

I would not trade Stroman straight up for Quantrill in a New York minute, or in any other minute.

There was a fair amount of speculation that David Bell was Toronto's number one choice. It's understandable why Toronto was never going to as compelling an option for Bell as Cincinnati, if that's accurate, so Toronto never really had a chance when he was offered the job with the Reds.

It's interesting to see that the Reds have hired Turner Ward away from the Dodgers and Derek Johnson away from the Brewers and both will be joining Bell's staff in Cincinnati. It's not clear what motivated both of them to leave their current jobs with contending teams for the same position with a club that is not likely to contend in the next couple of years. Was it money or location or the opportunity to work with Bell?

In any case, if I was a Cincy fan I'd be excited about adding the pitching coach from Milwaukee given what they achieved this year and the hitting coach from the Dodgers, given their success the last couple of years. The most prominent name linked to Montoyo has been Neil Allen, who was formerly the pitching coach for Minnesota, which doesn't have the same immediate appeal.

I think the team to trade with is the Braves. Sickels came out with his 2019 top 20 for their system; 9 of their top 12 were pitchers, and 7 of them ranked B+ or better. If the Jays want to replenish their system with arms, then that's the farm system to go after in a trade. AA is the GM so he may value Stroman (and/or Sanchez) more than others would.

AA also seems to enjoy drafting pitchers in order to use them as trade chips.

AA knows that he screwed up, but he will not tell anyone that. Smart man not to tell. He is very smart and has learned a lot.

Rumour has it that the Mariners might be shopping James Paxton with two years of control left.

That could be interesting if the price works out.

Since nobody has mentioned it, in detail/directly, let me be the first. This FO is not desperate to hold on to their jobs. Not yet anyway.

I only mention that because it can be a major motivator to "do something big". I think AA did that. I am quite sure that there are others.

Paxton and Stroman are past their prime. Only reason Sanchez isn't in that group is because he's missed so much time. It's a fine line between Chris Archer and Sonny Gray and fewer and fewer pitchers can be like the former while many can emulate the latter.

Whoever posted that this front office will probably take runs at "high end" risk players like Jon Gray is probably right in what this FO will do. Get rid of players you think will decline while you still can since they won't be part of your next window and bring in undervalued players with the chance to improve.

Jon Gray was a good suggestion out of COL

Grichuk was a good example from past season

Diaz

Estrada for Lind a few years ago...

Was there any other suggestions on relatively high upside forgotten players from other organizations? Ironically, Stroman probably fits that mold.

Something AA doesn't get enough credit for was selling high on Lawrie. Maybe he didn't know it but that was a steep cliff that that player fell off of.

The Jays were in the Postseason in 2016, Rogers made out like lottery winners (bandits) where it counted.
The Jays were not in the Postseason in 2017 despite being expected to by some. Due to a poor season it still took a long very time to eliminate them, and they didn't miss it by much. Rogers still did very well where it counted.
The Jays were not in the Postseason in 2018 and not anywhere close, but still managed above average attendance and good TV numbers. Rogers still did well where it counted.

This is the rebuild/retool that started last year and will go full throttle starting next year. Exciting things will start to happen, perhaps this Offseason, but hopefully very soon. The Jays could very easily be in the Postseason in either 2019 or 2020 or both. Then again the Jays might not even be close by 2021. Every move the Jays make will matter. There must be no mistakes possible, everything must succeed. Neither Atkins or Shapiro could be here past 2021 or they could be here well beyond.

The Mariners are considering a rebuild. Partially at least.
They just won 89, but they finished 3rd.
The Astros are still on top,  while the A's and Angels will try to retool.

They are losing Nelson Cruz, but maybe Cano can DH.
Paxton has 2 years left. Felix Hernandez is due 28M next year.

Jays are "showing interest" in J.A. Happ. He's 36, that makes him much to old to consider. I don't care how good he's been or how well he'll pitch in the future, he's too old. I'd rather take that money and get someone much better.

The rotation needs stability and that's exactly what Happ can provide.
As much as you can trust a pitcher anyway.
The Yankees have inked Sabbathia for another year.

So, who is "much better" than Happ that the Jays could reasonably acquire?

Any pitcher the Jays sign must know that they will likely be traded in July to a contender. I don't think it will be Happ but guys like Miley and Cahill and Gio Gonzalez are all possible. Trading for Paxton makes zero sense for a rebuilding team. Stroman still has a fair bit of value IMO. His contract is good and he's been a good pitcher every year he's pitched (except last season). Sanchez is very different. He had one good year in 2016 and aside from that has been mediocre and hurt all the time. If a team thinks Stroman could rebound which is not unlikely, I could see a couple of pretty decent prospects. Sanchez needs to show something to be tradable. I've been reading a lot of stories about Montoyo and he seems like genuinely loved guy with the people he worked with.

In my view, Sanchez needs to be able to throw his curveball to have success as a starter. Fastball-changeup isn't enough. If throwing the curve (or throwing it aggressively and effectively) is giving him blisters, then he has a problem.

If only the Jays FO had taken my advice to aggressively start the selloff in July 2017, how much further along would the rebuild be? Oh well, listen up now Jays FO to my unpopular suggestions.

I'm from the school of thought that says there's no "untouchable" player in baseball, so I'm prepared to trade anyone in the organisation.I'm moving on from Russ Martin,Morales,Tulo (likely the DL for rest of contract),Travis (unless both Diaz & Gurriel are moved or a minor league deal).I know the FO is likely moving on from Pompey but I would not - I like his skillset and he would come to spring with a strong opportunity to earn a roster spot - also Bill Mckinney underwhelmed me in the few times I watched him - needs more AAA time.


The outfield is weak and I'm not excited about any of the outfield prospects in the system (maybe Biggio if he can stick there defensively), so I hope the jays can add some upside outfield talent - I hope the Jays target a guy like Alex Verdugo whom the Dodgers may not have an opening for - Also the Twins who should expect to contend in a weak division may prefer a more known,dependable talent like Kevin Pillar than the more unreliable Bryon Buxton whom the Jays can afford to give a long lease in a non contending year and if the Nationals manage to resign Harper, I'd make a strong push for Victor Robles whom I love, likely having to build a package around Danny Jansen (yes I know that's unpopular)

I like Jansen very much but I'm comfortable with the better defensive platoon of McGuire/Maile next year and I think that Pentecost will be ready to replace Maile within a year.I would certainly make Jansen available for quality pitching prospects or a player like Robles.

I don't like the options at SS and if I expect Tulo to be on the DL, I'd look to bring in a short term plus defensive SS who can help the pitching staff ( perhaps increasing the value of Stroman/Sanchez etc.), make life easier for Vlad when he arrives & be no impediment to Bichette whenever he is ready - there are options available like Iglesias/Glavis - I like Glavis on a 1 year deal

Someone is going to take advantage of the inexperienced Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen and the high expectations he set at his press conference - I hope it's the Jays.

I don't know what the relationship is between AA and the Jays FO but the 2 teams seem to be a good match -the "Win Now" Braves could use a talent like Martin to guide that very talented young pitching staff and the Jays should be willing to eat most of that contract - Grichuk would be a nice replacement if Markakis doesn't return and Diaz would be an inexpensive excellent infield backup to that young, talented but volatile Braves infield - the Braves have that pitching depth the jays desperately need - I'd target Luiz Gohara as a change of scenery guy and some pitching that may be ready in the next 2 years.

I think the non-contending Jays will have a tough time attracting pitchers like Cahill,Happ,Santana to pitch in the small AL east parks against teams like the Yankees/Red Sox unless they overpay - which is why guys like Merryweather,Gaviglio,Morimando may get opportunities - next year will likely be a tough year.

I like Sanchez more than most and his arm doesn't have much mileage (I see an Al Leiter trajectory) - I'd try to extend him - maybe 4 years plus 2 options - doubtful with a Boras client coming off 2 poor seasons - I wouldn't extend Stroman unless very short term (2/3 years)

Sorry, I think that should have said " if the Nationals manage to re-sign Harper".

God, so many errors like a jays infielder - should read give Buxton a long leash not lease.

Sanchez does have a problem.

It's interesting that some pitchers have blisters problems and some are not affected.
Is it because they use foreign substances to grip the ball instead of the seams?
I understand the cutter is a good pitch to throw without gripping the seams, but a curve?

A player with 2 years of control has limited value.
The big exception is when a player is traded from a team with a restricted payroll to a team who can afford to extend him. That's not the Jays. Stroman and Sanchez are not good enough to extend, so the value is quite limited.

I would argue that since Stroman and Sanchez are candidates to be traded in July, the Jays should only sign a pitcher they intend to keep for 2 or 3 years.

Right now they need to trade 3 for 2, or 2 for 1, not 1 for 2. If you trade a player on the 25 for 2 prospects on the 40, you might still need to get someone to give some innings so that's 2 prospects that you just lost on waivers.

Paxton and Stroman are past their prime

And the evidence for this is...?

I think Happ will re-sign with the Yankees. Cashman likes him and he's a good fit for that team. The Jays can't provide anything that would entice him except maybe a guaranteed 3rd year at a higher AAV than anyone else is offering, but I doubt a rebuilding team would want that, and I don't think Happ would want that either when he could have a chance to win a World Series by staying in New York.

As mentioned, any SP who signs with the Jays is going to have to be prepared to get traded, so I doubt it is anyone long-term. The only exception would be someone like Kikuchi if the Jays decide to go that route.

Paxton and Stroman are past their prime
And the evidence for this is...?


Unless you have evidence that they are not past their primes and will pitch better than they have in the past, I ask, why do you need evidence? If there is conclusive evidence then they wouldn't really be tradeble now would they Thomas?

Sanchez definitely had serious blister issues in 2017. In 2018 his injuries were not as bad 36 IP in 2017 vs 105 IP in 2018. He also had that weird hand injury that cost him 2 months. Therefore he is not a lost cause in my books. His arm is fine so far.

Stroman on the other hand I describe as very confident and talented. A stallion. He works hard and seems to never back off. He cannot accept being defeated by any setback. My reasoning is that he came back in 2015 from that ST injury. He pitched 200+ innings in 2016 and 17. His offseason training for 2018 resulted in a shoulder injury. His determination during ST led him to come back too soon IMO. He pitched in the opening series vs NYY. He pitched badly until shut down after his May 8th outing. He came back Jun 23 and had quite a few good outings. Then the blister problem arose. He was terrible Aug 17. The radio announcer Ben Wagner said that when he saw the blister he thought it was impossible that it would be healed for his Sept 3 start. B Wagner was right because Stroman lasted only 1.2 innings and the finger was bleeding badly. Sept 3 was the last time Stroman pitched.

I think Stroman is still very good.

Age-wise, at 27 years old, you wouldn't think Stroman was past his prime. Looking at his career stats, it interesting that in 2016 and 2017 he had virtually the same lines except he dropped a full run in ERA in 2017. I advocated keeping him until at least the trade deadline next year because hopefully he would have more value. I don't anybody watching him last year would offer much because he looked eminently hittable.

Also, I would welcome J.A.Happ back. He liked it in Toronto and I could see him anchoring the staff for a few more years even at his age.

Many lefty pitchers last into their 40s. So Happ could do that. It was late for his big improvement. His 2nd stint with the Jays is when he made the big improvement.

Atkins has said that he is looking for pitching depth. I think he is of the opinion that you can never have too much pitching.
He did what he said he would do last year, so I think he will attempt to meet that goal this off season. He has obviously not given details of what he means by pitching depth.

Unless you have evidence that they are not past their primes and will pitch better than they have in the past, I ask, why do you need evidence? If there is conclusive evidence then they wouldn't really be tradeble now would they Thomas?

If I understand this correctly, you stated that Stroman and Paxton are past their prime. I asked what you are basing this on. You then said what evidence do I have to disprove your statement.

Your response does not seem to be a rationale or productive way to have a discussion. If I came on here and said "Bryce Harper is going to fall off a cliff in terms of his productivity next year," and someone says "Why do you think that?" It's not helpful if I say "Why not?" and push the burden of proof onto others to disprove my statement. People may be inclined to try to argue or discuss particular reasons with someone in good faith, but that's different from asking them to guess as to why you think something and respond to that imaginary case. You have stated that there will be a change to Stroman's and Paxton's established normal range of performance, but aren't willing to explain why you believe that. I'm not going to spend my time speculating why you think that.

Furthermore, your reply demonstrates a couple of other inaccuracies. Firstly, you said Stroman and Paxton are "past their prime", which means that they will pitch worst than their previous levels in the future. If I was interested in responding to you, I don't need to establish the likelihood is that they "will pitch better than they have in the past." If they keep performing around their established levels, they are not past their prime.

Secondly, you said that if there was conclusive evidence that they were past their prime, they wouldn't be tradeable. I didn't ask for conclusive evidence (as we are dealing in probabilities and likelihoods). Furthermore, even if Stroman and Paxton are "past their prime" there is no reason they wouldn't be tradeable. You didn't claim they are negative assets. The return may not be what the Jays and Mariners would hope, but if Stroman and Paxton were contributing pitchers, they have value to clubs. So, of course they'd be tradeable for the right return.

While we are taking apart people's posts...

scottt"A player with 2 years of control has limited value."

"I would argue that since Stroman and Sanchez are candidates to be traded in July, the Jays should only sign a pitcher they intend to keep for 2 or 3 years"

Last time I checked 2 equals 2.

Mike Green, regarding the infield defense:

I don't know if there's any way to check this, but I suspect most of the difference between Jays' opponents' slash lines on grounders and league averages are due to the fast turf at Rogers Centre. The differences are 25 points of batting average and 32 points of slugging, which I suggest could be accounted for by groundballs that aren't slowed by real grass and get past infielders, with the occasional one down the line going for a double. I would certainly like to see the defense improved, and agree more emphasis should be on the infield than the outfield, but with the turf, I doubt even a really good defense would improve those slash lines by much more than 10 points of BA and SLG. The speed difference between turf and real grass is just too great.

I don't have the team pitching splits on the ground home vs. away, but the team pitching BABIP was 25 points higher away than at home (.320 vs. .295).  I would be very surprised if splits on the ground did not make some contribution to that number. 

Interesting quotes from Atkins regarding Drury and Gurriel:

Re: Drury
"He wants to play third," Atkins said. "He loves third base and thinks he can be elite there. We agree with him and feel like if he gets a chance to do it on a daily basis, he could be a special third baseman.

"I think most players would just prefer to play one position and that's where they're penciled into the lineup every day, but more and more, versatility is a premium."

Re: Gurriel
"There is a lot of discussion in and around that, and it correlates with Aledmys Diaz and some other key pieces in our organization," Atkins said when asked where Gurriel would play. "Ideally, it's in the middle [of the field].

"We'll spend some time on that with him this offseason. I think making a decision on him to play one position, last year predominantly, and predominantly being at short, was helpful. Moving off of short is the easiest move."

----------------------

Drury's only long-term role on this team is at 2B, and even that is debatable depending on the development of Gurriel and other internal options. Unless of course the Jays decide to move Vlad to first base, which seems like the more logical move to make for defensive reasons, but for whatever reason they seem determined to play him at third (maybe to appease him).

As per 2018 Stats:
Aaron Sanchez started 20 Games, averaging just 5.2665 IP per Game.
Marcus Stroman started 19 Games, averaging just 5.3858 IP per Game.
Ryan Borucki started 17 Games, averaging just 5.7453 IP per Game.

Aaron Sanchez had 4 #1 Starter starts, 6 #4/5 Starter starts and 10 somewhere inbetween.
Marcus Stroman had 8 #1 Starter starts, 10 #4/5 Starter starts and 1 somewhere inbetween.
Ryan Borucki had 11 #1 Starter starts and 6 #4/5 Starter starts.

J.A. Happ started 31 Games, averaging just 5.7313 IP per Game.
James Paxton started 28 games, averaging just 5.7261 IP per Game.
Patrick Corbin started 33 Games, averaging 6.0606 IP per Game.
Blake Snell started 31 Games, averaging just 5.8281 IP per Game.

J.A. Happ had 16 #1 Starter starts, 8 #4/5 Starter starts and 7 somewhere inbetween.
James Paxton had 16 #1 Starter starts, 7 #4/5 Starter starts and 5 somewhere inbetween.
Patrick Corbin had 20 #1 Starter start, 6 #4/5 Starter starts and 7 somewhere inbetween.
Blake Snell had 26 #1 Starter starts, 3 #4/5 Starter starts and 2 somewhere inbetween.

That emphasizes the need for a great Bullpen. It also emphasizes the need for a better caliber Starter.

Agree with Thomas. If you have an opinion especially out of the mainstream, you need to back that opinion up not ask someone else to prove the negative. 'I think Garth Iorg is going to come out of retirement and hit 70 HRs next hear' needs to have some evidence or reason behind it not 'prove that he won't'.

Thomas - I sense contradictionl and irony from your posts...

"Your response does not seem to be a rationale or productive way to have a discussion"
- but your original response of "And the evidence for this...is?" is also not productive way to have a conversation. Take a look at Mike Green's response to my post for a rationale and productive way to have a discussion, as you say...he actually asks and puts forth an idea rather than submitting one short snarky sarcastic sounding question. I agree with your general point here Thomas but you're being hypocritical.

"You have stated that there will be a change to Stroman's and Paxton's established normal range of performance, but aren't willing to explain why you believe that. I'm not going to spend my time speculating why you think that."
- your not going to spend your time speculating what I think but you will ask me to produce evidence of my opinion and in a follow up post you will spend your time outlining inaccuracies in my post? Got ya.

"If I was interested in responding to you"
- This one is really good because you are literally doing the same thing that you at the same time are saying you will not. Nicely done.


Your conviction is noted but not as much as your contradictory and hypocritical stench. Your original response and statement still stands out to me as exactly the type of post you have subsequently tried to show as irrational or unproductive. Now if it's okay with you (and there's no hard feelings here), I much rather would move on that continue to allow this paint to slowly dry for entertainment to other posters.

On to something less combative... Steamer Predictions!

Here are the 2019 Blue Jays based on Steamer Projections.

Rotation
Stroman
Reid-Foley
Sanchez
Borucki
Gaviglio

Bullpen

Giles
Merryweather
Pannone
Tepera
Paulino
Mayza
Biagini

C - Jansen
1B - Smoak
2B - Gurriel
3B - Guerrero Jr.
SS - Tulowitzki
LF - McKinney
CF - Pillar
RF - Grichuk
DH - Martin

Bench

Travis
Morales
Drury
Hernandez


Obviously that bullpen is not going to stand the winter. Hopefully neither does the rotation.
I don't hate the position projections, though. Obviously Morales is going to DH over Martin, because he is a useless bench player and someone needs to backup Jansen.They also are a little optimistic on Tulo. With him out that puts Gurriel at short and Travis at 2nd, adding Diaz to the bench.

I'm not going to go in depth into spin rate and analytics like many guys here do because I'm not a big believer in them. I think they are the best indication for future success, yes, but numbers just aren't my thing and in this case I am going to outline my general reasons for belief why Stroman and Paxton are past their prime:

Stroman

1) Durability - He's pitched a ton of innings in 2016/2017 and admitting to pitching through shoulder issues. Aside from the blister when asked about his shoulder he would just say he normally pitches through some pain though it's just getting worse. The knock on Stroman by many pundits when he was a prospect was long term durability.

2) Ain't Fooling Anybody -The league is catching up to Stroman. As Kevin Barker points out (yes that's my reference) - how many times per year can you go out and fool the Red Sox and Yankees? They know you inside out and if you aren't pitching 96MPH with a big off speed pitch then you ain't gonna dominate like Stroman has in the past. It may work for a year when you have a nasty slider. Then it may work if you start slide stepping and adding a bunch of deception. Then focusing more on a cutter...but what do you do for Act 4?

3) Fastball speed is declining and off speed pitches aren't getting chased anymore when he is able to control it

4) Age - He's 28 which for me is the beginning of the end for pitchers not elite. Sure he can be productive but not like in 2017. The body is older, the arm doesn't bounce back as much. I see this trend happening with all pitchers except Left handed pitchers. The bigger you are the more likely you can go longer and like it or not Stroman has to work harder than Sale and Sanchez to generate the speed, spin etc all on his pitches. He doesn't own a clothing line called HDMH for no reason...much more likely to be the next Sonny Gray imho

Paxton

1) Durability - he has been dealing with pitching injuries and once they start they never go away

2) Age - I'm sorry but he's entering his age 30 season and although he is a lefty, unlike Hill and Happ he relies too heavily on his 98-100MPH fastball to be elite like he was this year. Not going to happen again.

Nate Pearson and James Paxton
Durability - he has been dealing with pitching injuries and once they start they never go away
Really?

Agreed Richard SS. You can never tell. David Wells tried to play at 1B in the minors because he had injuries that they thought would end his pitching career.

He had a very long and good career as a ML pitcher.

Unless his pneumonia is chronic, or he plans to take more baseballs off his forearm, I'm not thinking his injuries from last year are going to carry over.

As for his reliance on his fastball vs Happ... There were two pitchers who used their fastball more often than Happ last year (>120 IP). Neither of them was named James Paxton. There were 12 pitchers who had a higher fastball % than Paxton (about 10% less than Happ).

As for Stroman, the early knock on him was that he was short. Then the usual tropes were pushed out to try to justify it: "his fastball won't have enough plane" and "Can he handle a starter's workload?", both of which have been answered.

He had a shoulder injury, yes, but the bigger issue was that he tried to come back too soon. Once he was shut down and allowed himself to heal, he came back and pitched about as well as always, until trying to pitch through the blister issue and making it worse (and generally craptacular on the mound).

As for not fooling anybody, he seemed mostly fine to me between shoulder issues and blister issues. When he tried to come back too quick, he seemed to be hanging a tonne of his sliders. I really didn't notice this issue once he came back.

To mix up the Rotation enough to make it tougher to hit Jay's pitching, LHP Ryan Borucki should be penciled in as the Jays #2 Starter. With his development thus far, he's close to being one of the Jays most effective Starters next year.
Ross Atkins doesn't know if he's just getting one Starter and three Relievers or if he's getting two of each. If he gets lucky and the Starter is a really good one, then: New Guy, Borucki, Sanchez, Stroman is an excellent Rotation. If that isn't possible, he's more likely to look at two Middle Rotation (#3/4) types.

I am having a hard time listing my #16-30 prospects. Glevin is correct. A lot of them are really bunched together.

I can't wait for the Batters Box list to come out.

A don't see the contraction in saying that a pitcher with 2 years of control has little value and that the Jays should sign someone for 2 or 3 years..

A pitcher who has been inconsistent and has only 2 years of control remaining is not going to bring back a top prospect. I think that's pretty clear.

If  the window of contention for the Jays is going to open next year or in 2020, they should try to gather resources now, not 3 or 4 years down the line. Ideally, they would ink the best pitcher available for the next 5 years, but that's probably not going to happen. 3 years is probably the most they will commit to. A reliable pitcher on a 2 years contract would be very valuable even if he just walk out at the end. Obviously, I wouldn't trade a top prospect for a guy with only 2 years of control either.

The bullpen looks pretty close to me. Merryweather won't be ready for spring training.
Gurriel at 2B sounds right. If you start with Tulo at SS, Diaz is on the bench.
Drury could start at 3B and be the utility guy once Vladdy shows up.
Travis starts in Buffalo waiting for Gurriel to roll an ankle or pulls a hammy.

Next year Bichette takes short and there's a fight over 2B with Gurriel and Biggio.

The Jays are loaded with bat first infielders, so it's kinda hard to care about infield defense.
The key thing is to use the shift better.

The Red Sox have the best defensive outfield in baseball. They have a good firstbaseman and a decent shortstop.
The rest of the infield isn't that great.

scottt
That's a bit harsh.
The Jays have good 1B who was a Gold Glove Finalist candidate. They should/could/will have a decent-good SS (depending on who it is). The rest of the Infield might be good, better than Boston. Notice I'm not saying very good or great yet.

Excellent outing by Pearson in the AFL today: 4 0 0 0 0 5

After the game he said that his FB, slider and curveball were all working well. Pirates prospect Cole Tucker said that Pearson is an "unbelievable pitcher" when he has his offspeed pitches on and in the zone.

We're excited to announce that we've hired Dave Hudgens as our Bench Coach.

Most recently, Dave served as the @Astros' Hitting Coach & won a World Series Championship in 2017.

Welcome to the #BlueJays, @dmhudgens!

Seems to be a smart choice for bench coach - hitting coach for the Astros, former Athletics’ assistant director of player development (6 years), 12 total years as a hitting coach in the majors for the Mets, A's, and Astros. So a guy with history working with and understanding kids, who also knows a lot about hitting. Sounds good to me.

Yeah. I'm impressed they could lure Hudge to Toronto.
I assume he's the guy who will take over when Charlie gets ejected?

The bench coach is almost always the one who takes over for a manager if they are ejected. There's no reason to think Toronto would employ a different setup.

Hudgens lives in Houston in the offseason. This suggests it couldn't have been the easiest thing to achieve to lure him away. It is a promotion for Hudgens and places him in a better position to become a manager himself in the future, so one can understand why he'd take the offer.

Not sure. At 62, it's a bit late for him to hunt for a managing job.

He's managed in the minors and in the Venezuelan Pro League in the winters. Might speak Spanish.

He would have known Shapiro in Cleveland.

From 2006-2010, was the Cleveland Indians' Field Coordinator...Ensured that all coordinators and field staff were developing players based on each player's individual strengths and limitations, and that the staff was using effective methods of instruction and learning.

Hudgens turns 62 this year. Montoyo was considered an old hire by today's standards and he's only 53. I don't think he moved out of the Astros organization to improve his chances of getting a manager gig down the road because that ship has likely sailed already. Regardless seems like a good hire. The Jays are targeting the right organizations so far in terms of poaching coaches.

Blue Jay App has mention of a Media Avail by Ross Atkins. He hinted the Jays might be closing in on their first acquisition of the Offseason. "We had several discussion that I feel - we're not going to make a decision tonight on a trade or an acquisition - but certainly things are teed up that a decision could be made in a week, or days." Atkins said.

It sounds like like they're trying to find a job for DeMarlo Hale.

Fair points on Hudgens' age. I had missed that he was that old. If he lives in Houston year round, it's a little strange he'd leave the Astros to rebuild in Houston, but whatever the reasons were, it seems like a good hire on it's face. He's certainly more exciting than Neil Allen.

On another note, at least three of Houston's important front office staff have left this offseason: Mike Fast, Ryan Hallahan and Sig Mejdal. They all left Houston without having other opportunities lined up, although Fast has already joined Atlanta.

According to Shi Davidi:

#BlueJays hiring Hideaki Sato to scout Japan. Has held positions with #Mariners and NPB clubs Yakult Swallows and Nippon Ham Fighters. Also served as interpreter for Yu Darvish.

BA article on Nate Pearson:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/nate-pearson-gets-everything-working-in-latest-afl-start/

Thomas, you said, " it's a little strange he'd leave the Astros to rebuild in Houston,". You meant Toronto I assume. ( Just trying to make clear what you meant. )

Now getting more involved in the Japanese international market is a great move by the organization.

Interesting article on 2 pitch pitchers on fangraphs.. the Jays had many pitchers last year who threw their top 2 pitches 85% of the time.

Correct, Island Boy. I was thinking about Houston because he resides there in the offseason and muddled my sentence.

Please don't call this a rebuild, because it really isn't. If you are a solid pessimist then it must be a rebuild. If you are anything else then it's not. Very few pessimists follow the Jays.

Tapping the Japanese market is great, but Japanese players (mostly pitchers) are usually expensive.

So did J.D. Martinez win the silver slugger award for both DH and 3rd outfielder?

In case you missed it, from BA, the Jays released these players:

RHP Connor Eller | RHP Joel Espinal | RHP Alexander Molina | RHP Orlando Pascual | RHP Dalton Rodriguez | LHP Juliandry Higuera | C Owen Spiwak | OF Freddy Rodriguez

Good move by the Jays finally getting back into scouting the Japanese market. Don't forget Americans play there also. Miles Mikolas was probably the best FA pitcher signing this past offseason.

I think Atkins is trying to add pitching prospects in trades.

Ross Atkins needs to find a #1 Starter with term, possibly young and talented or someone that can pitch there, young or not. With the Jays not being sure enough of what Sanchez and Stroman can bring makes it important to do everything this Offseason right. If Sanchez and Stroman return to being the Talented Pitchers they've been before or could be, Playoffs! If not, at least someone can be the #1.

All this talk of Ross Atkins acquiring Pitching Prospects is fine, the more the merrier. But it would be much better if the talent level is high or if they can pitch in the majors now. That's a need the Jays have now.

I like Garrett Richards as a Pitcher.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richaga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
He's finally had the Tommy John Surgery (July) he's needed for a year or two. He could be very useful for Toronto in 2020, but he might not be available then unless he gets signed around now.

There are and will be a lot of rumors and chatter by the media.

NYY are rumored FA P Corbin, JA Happ and trade for J Paxton if Seattle is going to rebuild. All 3 are good. NYY will get 1 or 2 if they want to. Add Severino, Tanaka and CC Sabathia and that is a v good rotation. Also v expensive.

Boston are WS champions. Still young and good. Sale, Price and Porcello are a good start for the 2019 rotation.

Jays say that they are rebuilding. Borucki and SRF are ML ready, young and cheap. Stroman and Sanchez are also young and cheap but are probably going to leave in a few years.

If Boston, NYY and Toronto all have no SP injuries, I see Toronto as the weakest rotation. Toronto also has a limited budget.

Somehow TB will be good too.

Boston was the highest payroll and will still be above the luxury tax.
That means their first draft pick drops by 10, so things will become challenging for them in a year or 2.
They are a heavy favourite for next year.

NYY has some good players but a lot of question marks.
Tanaka's elbow could go anything. Severino has been very good and very hittable.
Judge has had problems staying healthy. Didi is going to miss half the next season.
First and third base are also questions. Sanchez has trouble blocking balls.
They have some good pitching prospects, but will they let them learn in the AL?
We'll have to wait and see what they look like in the spring.

The Jays should be a good hitting team. They could challenge for a wild card if the starting pitching is good.
If not, we should see more pitching prospects be given the ball.

Urshela was signed to a minor contract by New York.

Marc Hulet with updated top-10 prospects for Fangraphs. Interesting read.

Marc's prospect coverage is outstanding, and he's always been good for me personally in terms of tempering my expectations - I can be as guilty as anyone at overvaluing Jays' prospects.   Hulet ranks Biggio tenth but sees him as  'more of a platoon or part-time guy that gets into a game 4-5 times a week', calls Pearson "a future high-leverage reliever" given his injury history and velocity, notes that Pardinho might always be homer-prone, and is mildly concerned that Hiraldo looked less polished than expected.  He also has Tellez as one of his three 'just missed' prospects, so he's clearly higher on him than many Bauxites. 

Most interesting, and potentially worrisome, was his opening comment that he is "worried about the general lack of development/advancement of a lot of the arms outside the Top 10 list".  I hadn't really considered this as a systemic problem before, but guys like Perdomo, Harris, McLelland, Mayza and Jackson certainly haven't progressed as well as could be hoped.  SRF, Pardhino and Kloff will be interesting tests of this theory. 

Anyone else worried about the lack of developing pitchers outside of the top 10?

You forget Zeuch, Paulino, Wymer, Romano who should be higher than the guys you listed.

What I found interesting this week, was someone from the Rangers reviewing Cole Hamels' results (ERA of 4.72 with the Rangers, ERA of 2.36 with the Cubs) concluded that they have fallen behind on the coaching side and hence hired coaches from teams that are making the playoffs.

Pardinho, Kloffenstein and SRF won't test any theory by Hulet because they're all in his top 10. He's worried about pitchers outside the top ten.

Great list by Hulet and I too like the tempered expectations especially on a guy like Pearson or even Vlad who he thinks can decline at 30.

Dalimon, Pardinho, Kloff and SRF absolutely will test Hulet's theory because they too need to be developed - that's obviously why I made the comment.  To me, his comment read as an indictment of our developing of pitching, generally.  Those three top ten name might be too good to screw up, but I think it's pedantic to focus on the ranking like that.  

Scottt, Zeuch could easily be on my list, although he isn't as clear an example of developmental failures to me - he seems to be developing into what many predicted he would, a back-end starter that can eat innings.  Wymer and Paulino were recently acquired, hard to evaluate our impact on them, and Romano is also tough to evaluate given his major injuries, unless you can convincingly link those to development. 

Martin to Seattle might make sense. Maybe Dee Gordon back? Seattle doesn’t need him and his salary makes him not worth much. Would certainly fix speed and defence issues in a hurry (but crowd 2B even more).

I'm not sure there is even enough sample size to determine whether the Jays (at least this regime) have trouble with developing pitching prospects. For one thing, they were hired after 2015 when a lot of pitching prospects were traded, so the existing pool wasn't that strong. On top of that their drafting has been heavily position player focused so far, aside from names like Zeuch, Pearson and Kloffenstein. The latter two are in Hulet's top 10, and Zeuch is pitching about how you would expect given his profile. It's not easy to add a swing and miss pitch, though I'm sure that's an area of focus with him (he needs one).

Aside from that, it's been about what you would expect, probably a little bit better as far as development. Borucki took a step forward. SRF took a step forward. Pannone got suspended so he had an abbreviated season that was a bit disappointing (though he did have some solid MLB starts to close the year). Maese got hurt. Mayza had a strong 35+ innings in the bigs. Then there is a bunch of lower end guys like Harris, Rios, Romano, etc, that I'm not really sure we should be expecting much from to begin with. If they turn into big league relievers that's probably a great outcome.

The Jays definitely need to turn some of their vets into higher end pitching prospects. They obviously missed a chance of turning Donaldson into Flaherty (if that rumor is true), but they can't afford to fail when selling off the existing vets. They will have a bunch of names who will either be in MLB or AAA for most of the season (SRF, Pannone, Paulino, Zeuch, Waguespack, Merryweather, Romano, etc). Aside from Paulino and SRF, it's not a list of high upside pitchers, so they'll need to add more/better names there.

Atkins mentioned using Trackman data in one of his interviews, so they are obviously aware of spin rate and more of the higher end pitching stats. Now it's a matter of being able to get the best out of their existing talent and adding more. We will see what happens. I'd say it's too early to notice a trend right now. In a year or two we should have a better idea.

Not seeing any mention of Hector Perez in the discussion regarding potential pitching prospects. MLB has him as the Jays 11th best prospect and the write up suggest he has top level stuff...command and control issues recognized.

Blue Jays had a very successful Pitcher selection 2018 Draft. I understand these Pitcher still have a long way to progress before or if they make the Majors. But I'm sure there's a lot of success coming from here.

Adam Kloffenstein was ranked #43 by MLB in his Draft year (3rd Round - 88). He spent time, once signed, in Extended working on his delivery. 2.0 IP in Gulf Coast League and time in Instructional were considered a success. He's a big power arm that should move fast.

Sean Wymer was ranked #85 by MLB in his draft year (4th Round - 116). He went to Vancouver where he had a very successful run. Next year he's at least in Lansing if not higher.

Joey Murray was an 8th Round - 236th pick. He was sent to Vancouver where he had a very successful run. Next year he's at least in Lansing if not higher.

Nick Allgeyer was a 12th Round - 356th pick. He was sent to Vancouver where he had a very successful run. Next year he's at least in Lansing if not higher.

Brad Wilson was a 13th Round -386th pick. He was sent to Bluefield where he was dominant. Vancouver, Lansing or higher is the question.

Troy Watson was a 15th Round - 446th pick. He was sent to Bluefield where he was dominant. Vancouver, Lansing or higher is the question.

Fitz Stadler was a 18th Round - 56th pick. He was in Bluefield and then Vancouver where he was very successful. Next year he's in Lansing or higher.

Will McAffer was a 25th Round - 746th pick. He was sent to Vancouver where he was successful. Next year he's in Lansing.

Cre Finerock was a 29th Round - 866th pick. He was in Bluefield and had success.

Cobi Johnson was a 30th Round - 896th pick. He was sent to Vancouver where he was vey successful. Next year he's in Lansing or higher.

Joey Pulido was a 32nd Round - 956th pick. He was in Blue field then Vancouver where he was very successful. Next year he's in Lansing or higher.

Matt Harris was a 33rd Round - 986th pick. He was successful in Bluefield but is on the Voluntary Retired List.

Grant Townsend was a 34th Round pick. He was sent to Bluefield where he was successful.

The decision is still out on some others. But the possibility of success is still there.

Josh Hiatt was a 16th Round - 476th pick. He did not play.
Adam Havekost was a 17th Round - 506th pick. he did not play.

Gage Burland was a 22nd Round - 656th pick. Not a success.
Mike Pascoe was a 24th Round - 716th pick. Not a success.

These Pitchers are at least another year or two away before the Jays know exactly what and who they have. It's unlikely I will see the success of these Pitchers as life can be so unpredictable.

Of all the high-end Pitchers who will impact on the Jays Rotation/Bullpen from 2019 on, these are the MLB selections:

Nate Pearson, MLB #4, is a #1 Starter for the Jays, 2021 ETA at the Earliest.

Eric Pardinho, MLB #6, is also a #1 Starter projection/possibility for the Jays, Mid-2021 ETA at the earliest.

Sean Reid-Foley, MLB #10, is a Mid-Rotation Starter for the Jays who is MLB READY now.

Hector Perez, MLB #11, could be a Front-line Starter for the Jays, 2020 ETA at the earliest.

Adam Kloffenstein, MLB #12, is a front-line Starter projection/possibility for the Jays, 2022 ETA at the earliest.

T.J. Zeuch, MLB #13, is a Mid-Rotation Starter for the Jays, 2020 at the earliest.

David Paulino, MLB #19, is a MLB-READY now Reliever, but possible a Mid-Rotation Starter.

Sean Wymer, MLB #25, is a Mid-Rotation Starter for the Jays, 2021 ETA at the earliest.

Thomas Pannone, MLB #26, is a Backend Starter for the Jays, who is MLB-READY now.

Jordan Romano, MLB #27, is a backend Starter for the Jays, 2020 ETA at the earliest.

There is also a possibility some of these Pitcher could be or should be Relievers for the Jays at least one year earlier.

Martin might fit with Seattle, but it's hard to imagine a suitable return.
The only really interesting player they have is Paxton and they'd want more than Martin for him even if the Jays ate all of his salary. Maybe Stroman and Martin (with salary relief), for Paxton. Seems like a high cost for the Jays. 

sportsnet has a must read article on the last MLB .400 hitter.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-manager-charlie-montoyo-profile/

Very slow day on da Box. Is everyone taking a rest?

I hope everyone is ok.

I like our pitching prospects.

The Blue Jays have the option of going after:
1) A young MLB-Ready Starter, cheap, with lots of term. He should be able to pitch in the Rotation in 2019. Or a young #1 Starter with term. He should be able to pitch as the Jays' #1 Starter in 2019. The Jays may or may not need a 2nd Starter, and should be looking for two or three Relievers;
2) A pair of not old Mid-Rotation (#3/#4) Starters, with or without term. This should fit in well with the Rotation. The Jays would be looking for two Relievers. I would not try for any less caliber than this. Jaime Garcia was such a big success for #10.0 Million. Next time spend $3.0-5.0 Million more to get someone better than just barely competent.

For a young cheap, lots of term left #1 starter the Jays would have to give up a top prospect or 3. I'm talking our top 3-5 prospects and giving up at least 2 of them. I don't see that happening.

Best idea is to chase anyone who is possible. Mr. 2 way last winter was a smart one to chase but he wanted the west coast. With Japanese pitchers the Jays need to put an emphasis on being not USA but with access to the USA. IE: get the best of both worlds, you don't need to live in Trump land where the danger to a non-white player who might have a young family should be obvious. I know I now avoid the USA, land of the gun. The Jays need to sell that (in a subtle way) to non-Americans as much as possible. That is how you can overcome the negative of being not-USA is by making that a strength instead for non-USA players. I know Beeston would've fought that as he seemed super-pro USA, and I suspect our current team might be the same. Still, the smart move is to use what you have.

Finding quality will be hard.

The roster crunch is here to stay. For every guy with upside you pick up you push someone out on waivers.
They should get one dependable guy to solidify the rotation and just pluck prospects in the pen.
No that there is a lot of room there.
The point really is to get rid of the excess infielders before Nov 20.
Either trade them for upgrade somewhere or for a questionable pitcher.
I expect Charlie to use whatever he has to, openers, tandem starts, whatever.

What do the Colorado Rockies want for RHP, Jon Gray, 27? A Mid-Rotation Starter, with first time Arbitration, would fit very well with this Jays.
What would the New York Yankees want for RHP, Sonny Gray, 29? Someone to be the sacrificial lamb for the Rotation as #1 Starter. Can always be traded, with last time Arbitration.
What do the Seattle Mariners want for LHP, James Paxton, 30? He's someone who could easily be a #1 Starter for the Jays, with last time Arbitration.
What do the Cleveland Team want for one of there Starters? The price is only relevant if you're not interested.

The Jays have enough prospect capital to pull off one really big Trade. They also have enough cash to land one really significant Free Agent. Whether or not the Jays are willing to "spend" depends on too many things to mention. All I know is when the Jays wait for the price to come down, they must settle for the 3rd, 4th or 5th option, never anything better.

BBRef usually uses Tango's very simple Marcel the Monkey projections.  Marcel doesn't do quite as well as the high-profile ZiPS/Steamer/PECOTA projections, but remarkably close for a simple transparent system. 

Fangraphs has a new study where they try to assign prospect valuation, Vlad's prospect valuation is almost double the second highest rated prospect.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

Agreed Mike, removes the narratives that accompany most rankings. Fangraphs just released this companion article where they rank the farm systems, Jays are 5th, but they add the Jays would be middle of the road if they had called up Vlad at the allstar break last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

Vlad is one of the youngest prospects in the game. So as M Green said in a few years he could be the best ML hitter. It depends on if he can do it and stay healthy. The current best will be old in 5 years.

R Atkins said that we have a large quantity of young position players on the 40 man roster. He said that he expects Bichette and Biggio to be in AAA, but Gil Kim and Ben Cherington will make that decision.

I understand that R Atkins has to speak in generalities.

He said he definitely is looking to add pitching. He said all FA additions or maybe a trade. He did say he would be happy to add to the good young AA/AAA group of pitchers.

Whether or not there is an issue with too many Infielders, all depends on Troy Tulowitzki. He's under contact for two years and an option. He's basically missed most of two years for Injuries/surgeries. If he can still play, the problem gets worse. If he can't play, the problem doesn't get any better.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Richard Urena and Aledmys Diaz all have just one option remaining, while Devon Travis has two options remaining. Yangervis Solarte may be non-tenderer. With only Brandon Drury without options.

And there's only on person who should make this Team, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vlad should but will sit in AAA for 2 weeks or so in order for the Jays to gain a year of control. Of course, that could change if he'd sign a 7+ year deal (I'd love a 20 year one so his whole career is here). Solarte should be toast, I expect an infield of Drury, Diaz, Gurriel with Urena as backup and Travis in AAA with Vlad coming up ASAP and some shuffling then. Defense will suck but offense should be nice. A year of 10-8 games would be fun.

Thanks Mike Green for the board. I thought that they had missed SRF, but I found him #17, a 40 with high risk.

Haven't seen this talked about previously, but it looks like Joe Biagini is a super 2 and is eligible for arbitration. Would be surprised if the team went to arbitration with him, especially since MLBTR is estimating that he'll get 1M. Might be another slot in the 40 man that the Jays might be able to leverage.

Another example from the Board- SRF is rated as a 40 with high risk and Harris as a 40 with low risk.  That's weird.  If you are going to mark SRF as high risk (which is reasonable), you've got to acknowledge that his reasonably achievable potential is higher than Harris'. 

I don't believe the Jays will make Vlad a long-term offer at this point (maybe not ever). Doing so would be contrary to this front office's philosophy of always looking to maximize value and minimize risk.

In three or four years, I could see them offering Vlad an extension along the lines of the six-year extension Trout received after three-plus years in the majors. So, an extension (with inflation) of around 6/180 starting in 2023.

Or they might wait until 2024 or so as Vlad nears free agency and then offer a Kershaw-type seven-year deal (say, in the range of 7/245 to 7/280) that would take him into his early-30s.

Another good example of weird rankings is Smith and Warmoth. I have a hard time reconciling performance at similar levels with Smith being younger and to have them considered to have similar hit tools currently and future value.

Say goodbye to Angel Perdomo, signed by the Brewers.

Comparing Zack Logue to T Panonne, they look reasonably similar. So Logue has a shot at making the majors. His 2 year minor league results look good. He has 2 more years before he has to be added to the 40 man roster for rule 5 protection.

Would he be equal value for one of our surplus OFs. J Davis, D Smith Jr, B McKinney or D Pompey who has no options left? I would be reluctant to give up A Alford.

The AFL season ends Thursday but Vlad's season ends after today. He is leaving for a family matter.

It seems like some players are ranked higher than other just because of their order in the draft.
Some highly ranked players in low minors never reach the majors and a lot of players who do have never been ranked anywhere. Where does Merryweather really fit for example?

True scottt. Borucki is a great example 15th round 2012.

There are 19 Blue Jay Rule 5 Prospects at risk. But in the examining the records of each of them, it's apparent some will not get chosen. There are also some I would never protect. I would put the following on the 40-Man Roster, no matter what, they are the most useful:

1) RHP Corey Copping, 25, Reliever: He's been continually successful with good-very good numbers thus far. He will be in Buffalo in 2019 and probably called up as needed.
2) LHP Travis Bergen, 25, Reliever: He's a dominant Pitcher, successful, with very good-great numbers. He will be in Buffalo very soon, unless he's needed in New Hampshire briefly first.
3) OF Forrest Wall, 23, Bats Left: He's been successful with his own set of good numbers. He may start in New Hampshire but he will finish in Buffalo.
4) RHP Patrick Murphy, 23, Starter: Finally healthy, he's at least a Mid-Rotation Starter, but maybe more. He should be in New Hampshire in 2019. He's too close to the Majors to risk losing.

If there is room for others to be added to the 40-Man, I would recommend:

5) RHP Jacob Waguespack, 25, Starter: He's a good #3/#4 Starter with poor result, but good numbers. He will probably Start the Season in Buffalo.
6) RHP Jon Harris, 26, Starter: He's a good #4/#5 Starter, possibly better with good numbers. He will be a Starter in Buffalo in 2019, but he might be a better Reliever.

I believe the above six will play in the Majors sometime in 2019 or in 2020. I would expect 4-5 of these Players would be picked in the Rule 5 Draft for sure. Beyond these 6, the Jays must be sure that whoever gets put on the 40-Man Roster is better than whomever get removed.

In typical John Lott fashion, he has another interesting read up at the Athletic, this one on Nate Pearson.

Hyun-Jin Ryu accepted his QO with LAD.

16 teams get revenue sharing money. Probably extra compensation draft picks as well. But not the Jays.

I don't see the Jays going after any QO rejecting FAs. There are 6 of them.

All the other FAs I think can be signed without a penalty. Then I read the rules. Confused me. M Machado should have no penalty attached. Hopefully a GM understands the rules.

Link to QO rules

The only free agents tied to draft-pick compensation are those who turned down the one-year qualifying offer.

Thanks James W. I actually read that while doing my post. Dated Oct 18. It had too many examples. That lost me.

It will be interesting to see how Grandal and Kimbrel do. I am leaning heavily towards their decision hurting them.

Gerry - Saturday, November 03 2018 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#367477)
John Lott confirms that Brook Jacoby has been fired. The other coaches are still on the bubble.
Gerry - Saturday, November 03 2018 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#367481)
Tim Leiper also gone per Lott. Montoyo probably has that job set aside for one of his buddies. The first base coach job is the least demanding and is the easiest to give to a buddy.

Apparently John Lott might be misinformed/wrong as Tim Leiper is still listed as 1st Base Coach on the Jays main site as well as on Apps. That might change in the future, but it's inaccurate right now.

Leiper is long gone. No doubts about that.
The vibe is that Montoyo wants to bring his AAA pitching coach over but Atkins wants to stick with Walker.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/2018-non-tender-candidates.html
They have Yangervis Solarte and Devon Travis as non-tender candidates, but no other Blue Jay.

Jays should have financial room this year and there are two ways they can spent it well beyond signing free agents.
1) Taking on salaries for prospects.
2) Picking up players who are too expensive for other teams for their roles but could fit the Jays.

How much prospect capital would the Phillies give to take Carlos Santana? The Dodgers Matt Kemp? Does Joc pederson have a place to play in LA?

The Jays have the financial room, but not the roster space.
Certainly not before the rule V draft.
The Liriano trade happened in August.

Greinke could be an interesting target. There's no room for a position player.

Solarte is obvious. Travis will only make 2 and something, but could end up in AAA.

Absolutely. If they have the money just ink the best starting pitcher they can afford. Those often bring back prospects anyway.

Signing in-demand free agents for rebuilding teams is almost never good value. Look at FA's last year. Top starters were Darvish, Arrieta, Chatwood, and Cobb. All of those deals are already pretty bad. Free agency is often accepting the back end of deals will be bad for gain in the front of them. The Jays are not going to be competitive for a few years so it's backwards. The Jays would be getting value when not competing and paying too much when they are.

In replicating the Liriano trade, the key is to get useful contracts, and not dead weight. Carlos Santana is still a good player, just overpaid for what he is. If the Phillies are willing to add prospects for the Jays to take on $35M over two years, then it's something to think about. In that scenario the Jays would get a 2 WAR on the field (~4 WAR over two years, give or take) and add assets at the same time without adding a long-term obligation. The Santana example would be about double the financial obligation that Liriano's deal was, so the prospect(s) coming back would have to be worth it.

That's just one avenue. Identifying a potentially undervalued arb eligible player (ala Grichuk) is another one. I really like the idea of adding Jon Gray if the Rockies are looking to move him.

Glevin's idea of replicating past trades of taking on bad contracts for prospects is a good one. One thing I think you guys are missing though is that teams like the Phillies and Dodgers have lots of room to keep those types of contracts. Sure, there are instances where a team like the Cubs need to cut salary to stay underneath thresholds and what not, but by and large the trade for expensive players that need to be "taken on" to get prospect capital added in...thats going to be limited to teams with smaller budgets. So, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Miami, Cincinnati, CWS, KC, Minnesota, Seattle...most of these teams don't have expensive dead weight players anymore because they're run so well like TB and Oakland while others have these types of players but no prospects (Mariners) and still others have ownership willing to eat bad contracts (Angels).

The only opportunities I see that are obvious are Pittsburgh, KC and Cincinnati.

Ian Kennedy 16 million
Alex Gordon 20 million
Danny Duffy 15 million
Joey Votto 25 million
Homer Bailey 23 million
Starling Marte 10+ million

Removing two of the reference contracts below would make it easier to take on other contracts for prospect capital:

Morales 12 million
Martin 20 million
Tulowitzki 20 million

I love targeting overpaid players to take on for prospect capital because I think it's something this FO can and will do. I know there's many options out there that Beauxites will for sure be able to figure out and list for the rest of us. I just listed some obvious examples.

Of course the big caveat is that when you bring on that player in decline with a big salary, this front office has made it clear that they will play that older player Ala Morales last year and Tulo next year. So that means if you bring in a Duffy then SRF or some other prospect will probably be in AAA.

Personally, I would trade for these types of players to bulk up the prospects in lower minors. To facilitate playing time for guys like Vlad, Biggio, SRF etc I would start trading off good young players that just don't fit the next timeline. That means saying goodbye to:

Stroman
Sanchez
Grichuk
100milesanhourGiles
Diaz
Smoak

Glevin
You're forgetting Detroit signing Pudge , which panned for the same reasons was later ide typifies as a positive factor of change for the team.
I dont think Arroeta is horrible,  because otaku only 3 years  but continued decline would make it a clearly bad deal. It didnt prevent PHI from improving their record. I think the context of the signing is important. Term, and what potential other options exist, and what prospects are subsequently blocked.

Ownership knows and understands details of what happened in the Richardi, AA and now Shapiro years.

They know that they had a low budget in 2012 and before. They also know that a 2nd WC was added in 2012. This meant that being in a pennant was easier. So Pennant race revenue was easier to be involved in. So they took big steps to achieve that. They also set budget parameters and time lines for this type of success.

This Team will always depend on Attendance and TV Viewership, Rogers needs both. Everything the Jays do from this time forward will have a eye to the future and that alone. No Player not considered a long term asset will get more than a one or two year contract. Players in their last Arbitration year will know by then if an extension is possible, if not expect a trade. Rare will be the Player extended before his final Arbitration year, as I think that's when all extension will get signed. The Jays need to be sure.

Considerations:
1) Aaron Sanchez continues his #1 Starter/Cy Young Winner development through 2017 and 2018 (32 starts each year).
2) Josh Donaldson finishes second in MVP voting in both 2017 and 2018 (155 games played each year).
3) Roberto Osuna doesn't have a brain fart and remains a Gentleman in 2018.

The 2017 and 2018 seasons would be very different - possibly Playoffs in both years. So very little had to change to do something big. Would the Jays be rebuilding/retooling now?

I don't know why KC or Cincinnati (and probably Pittsburgh as well), neither of which has any pretension of contending in the near future, would be interested in trading some of their prospects to remove salary obligations in a year when they aren't contending.

Astros assistant GM Mike Elias is apparently set to become Baltimore's new GM.

Thomas,

One reason why those teams would be willing to move prospects is to save money for ownership. If you're not going to make money and possibly lose money, you want to cut your losses.

Pittsburgh is competing. That's why they traded for Chris Archer (he had budget friendly contract so wasn't a pure rental last season for Pittsburgh). They were contending and gave up a kings ransom for him.

In my books, taking on salary to gain prospects, we're not talking about grade A prospects. We're talking about prospects like Reese McGuire, Harold Ramirez or maybe a Teoscar Hernandez. Just usable pieces with some potential upside. That's why Cincinnati, KC or Pittsburgh would be willing to include B level prospects if it means they can shed payroll.

Wouldn't you trade Russell Martin or Morales and some B level prospects if it meant you could save 30 million+ next season to reinvest in another player or save your money?

Rogers does not save money one year to spend another.
It's a public company with quarterly reports.
Those like to have consistent, predictable results to attract investors.
It's a bit like how the government employees will spend all their budget just to make sure they have the same budget the following year.

Right now there's no room on the active roster for Reese McGuire even though he's possibly the best catcher after Jansen.
Harold Ramirez is a free agent.
If anything, the Jays should be doing the opposite move and trade a number of guys for a pitcher with upside, even though Hutch didn't work out for the Pirates.

The 5 player deal between Cleveland and Pittsburgh is the sort of thing I'm expecting now.

Drew Hutchison's best season was 2014. There was a rumor of a trade offer made around then. In 2015, A.A. went with five set matchups to start the Season/have a strong start. Because he pitched Game One, he thought he was the Ace of the Staff in 2015, not the last Pitcher assigned. He was more angry than disappointed at not being on the Postseason Roster. His relationship with the Jays bottomed out about then. At least he still had trade value.

A year  ago, it looked like the Yankees would be chasing Bryce Harper. Now, their outfield is full and they have other needs.
Machado is the perfect fit for them. Play short until Didi comes back, then moves back to 3rd.
However, Machado has looked bad in the offseason because of poor performances and terrible attitude.
It's a huge quandary for the Yanks.
It'd trade Diaz for a package around one of their top pitching prospects.
I have no interest in Sonny Gray.

Yankees will not trade one of their top pitching prospects.

"Yankees will not trade one of their top pitching prospects."

Not even for Alemdys Diaz? Damn, there goes the off-season.

Cincinnati currently has about $68 million committed to payroll in 2019 only counting guaranteed contracts. Last year, the Reds had a payroll of about $100 million. The Reds have promised to increase their payroll in 2019. Their ownership clearly has no issue spending more money on the Reds. And, as has been said before, saving $20 million one year doesn't mean it gets used in 2020 or 2021.

I remain skeptical that if they shed the $20 million on Homer Bailey's contract, it would result in a realistic shot of Cinncinati contending in 2019 or being a major player in free agency. I'd like to be wrong, but I don't see it.

Meanwhile,

Thomas,

What would you do/target if you were GM? Trade for overpriced vets? Trade prospects for prospects? Sell off? Which direction would you go and which other team might help you to do that, if any?

After what the Jays got for Happ, I'd rather not trade with the Yankees ever again. Cashman doesn't trade top prospects and rarely makes bad trades, though it would be nice if Drury and McKinney prove that theory wrong.

Yangervis Solarte and Devon Travis have no trade value. 24 Free Agent Second Basemen make trading them a moot point.

Catcher looks set with Jansen and McGuire. They need to trade one of Maile/Martin. Maybe 2 and protect Pentecost.
Guerrero will take over at 3B. Diaz looks good there. Drury wants to be a regular 3B.
Tulo wants to return at SS. Bichette won't be ready this year. Diaz is fine there. Maybe Gurriel. Maybe Charlie can get Urena to take the next step.
Smoak starts at 1B and gets traded later, unless the Jays are holding a wild card spot. Tellez takes over then.
2B is probably where Gurriel lands this year, but Biggio can also play there and is a much needed lefty bat who gets on base. Drury can also cover there. No room for Travis.
Morales starts at DH and maybe gets traded. Hernandez could have PAs there. Maybe Tulo gets rested there.
Once Morales is gone, the team probably rotates players in the DH spot.

The outfield is more blurry.
McKinney most likely platoons in a corner.
Grichuk probably plays a corner, but do you trade him, extend him or potentially lose him after next year?
Pillar should have some value and should be traded. He's heading in the wrong direction.
Decide after spring training who of Davis, Pompey, Alford, Smith or Wall make the team?

For the rest, the plan is just to sign some relievers on minor league deals and try to get potential starters out of all the trading pieces. Not easy. Fall back, sign one dependable starter, not to trade him later, but to save the bullpen by pitching in the 7th every 5 days.

McGuire will not begin the year in the majors unless there are injuries. If Martin is moved, Maile will be in TO. If Martin remains it creates a problem but fortunately Maile has a remaining option and can be stashed temporarily in Buffalo.

Maile is the best catcher on the roster. Jansen may be in the future but he isn't now. Defence is more important than offence at this position.

Obviously, but I wouldn't trade a player with several years of control in the division unless there is some overpay.
What's the prospect value of a solid position players with 3 years of control left?
The Yankees traded away Taylor widener and Nick Solak to get Drury.
MLB pipeline has Widener as the snakes's 2nd ranked prospect and  Solak as Tampa 11th ranked prospect.

I think the Jays will try to move Martin even if they have to eat up a bunch of salary. He could still start on some playoff teams and trading him to a contender rather than having him backup a rookie on a rebuilding team would be doing him a favor.

Shapiro is now on the Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee.

Brandon Drury was a success story when the Yankees acquired him last Offseason, for significant value. They needed him to play 3B because they didn't want to rush their stud Prospect.
Between 2017, the last Offseason and in Spring Training something happened. Severe migraines, vision problem(s) and some other injuries limited his Season in New York to just 18 mediocre games before hitting the D.L. NYY was then forced to callup their stud Prospect and he was a huge success.
His time recovering in the Minors was successful. The Jays knew all this when he was traded. He's under control for four more years as a Super Two and he's just 26.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drurybr01.shtml

Billy McKinney was successful in the minors, and played all three Outfield positions well enough. He was drafted in the 1st Round (23) by Oakland in 2013.
Traded to Cubbies mid-2014. Traded to the Yankees mid-2016. Traded to Toronto mid-2018. Adjusting to those trades and new locations, new leagues, new teammates can be difficult. Yet he succeeded.
He made the Yankees' Opening Day Roster but played just two games in New York, ran into a wall (concussion) was put the D.L. and was out of sight, out of mind.
I think he was having his breakout in Toronto when called up. I'm sure he on the Roster Opening Day, either as a Starting OF or as 4th OF. He's pre-Arb, 23, Rookie status still intact, MLB-ready.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mckinn002bil

The Jays won the J.A. Happ trade even though New York thought they were just trading spare parts.

The Yankees lost the trade by most measures as they only got into the playoffs via the wildcard and lost in the Division Series to the Red Sox. Happ only threw 2 poor innings for the Yankees in the playoffs (5 runs allowed, all earned) The two games the Yankees won in the playoffs (wild card, game 2 of DS) did not see Happ pitch. Now, Happ was 7-0 in 11 starts in the regular season which is nothing to sneeze at and did help them secure the #1 seed for the wild card game vs Oakland (a plus) but they would've made the playoffs if they went 2-9 in Happ's starts.

Meanwhile the Jays got Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. Well covered by others, but bottom line is the Jays got 2 useful parts going forward in exchange for a pitcher who they didn't need in 2018 and probably would've lost for a single draft pick this winter (at best).

Drury was terrible. He was below replacement value.
He tried to play with injuries that his coaches were not aware of.
I don't see that as a plus. Shades of Brett Lawrie.
Maybe he comes back to spring training healthy, maybe not.
He's got migraines and he's exploring alternative therapies like acupuncture.
You're guess is as good as mine there.
They got a new head coach who is good at pushing players to give full efforts.
That's no help, here. That's a case for the high performance department.

Greinke is interesting if there's money to toss around. 3 years/95M is a bit much but maybe there's ways to offset that.
The Diamondbacks just lost A. J. Pollack, so they might be interested in taking Pillar to play center.
Improved defense would help with the loss of Corbin as well.

Ideally they'd take Tulo, but Martin is a better fit. 

Even then, it's cheaper to just re-ink Happ.

Maybe if they trade Escobar to the Yankees for Sonny Gray. Then that leaves a spot open for Tulo.

Disclaimer: It's snowing. My mother-in-law's flight was canceled and might not have gotten enough sleep.

Greinke is very interesting if the Jays are willing to eat that salary - and given the payroll clearing out they could. If Arizona is desperate (and according to MLB Trade Rumors they are) then the Jays could try for a few quality prospects to come with him then could try to flip him mid-season to a contender for more prospects.

$95.5 million is a LOT though. But he did produce 4.8 bWAR 3.5 fWAR last year (worth $28.8 mil via FanGraphs) (ie: he is worth the contract). I suspect he'd be tradeable, especially if the Jays ate his contract. But to do so they'd need to keep payroll low for a few years.

Now, Arizona's 4 catchers last year all had OPS+ of sub 60, not easy to have that much offensive incompetence. They could use Martin or any of the young catchers we have so a mix of Martin and a kid might work well. Their team OPS+ was 84 so Diaz would appeal (weak defense but solid offense at a premium position) and to balance out contracts a bit they might take Tulo.

An interesting idea.

The idea that the Yankees got the best of the Blue Jays in the Happ deal is baffling at best.

Toronto could straight up drop Drury and keep McKinney and still have the best side of the deal.

Did you forget that Happ is a free agent now?

Carson Cistulli is joining the front office of the Blue Jays.  No, this is not a NotGraphs joke.

I believe Greinke has a no-trade to 15 teams. If that is correct, I'll go out on a limb and say that Toronto is one of those teams.

If you're referring to my post, I never said the Happ deal was bad. It was just very disappointing from the Jays end. The Yankees traded expendable pieces from their cluttered 40 man roster rather than anything they are going to potentially regret. Obviously Happ was a rental so the Jays were never going to get a top 100 prospect, but I was expecting better.

With that said, with four years of control left, Drury is someone the team could potentially flip if his bat improves (which is possible), and McKinney is already projected to be a ~1 WAR league average bat at age 24 with an intriguing batted ball profile. It wasn't a bad trade for the Jays. Just a disappointing one given where they are in the team building phase.

Guillermo Martinez is the new hitting coach.  Rivera and Walker are back. 

I am surprised Walker was brought back. Seemed like a perfect opportunity for Montoyo to pick his own guy rather than be stuck with any holdovers. Maybe the FO likes Walker.

An OF and 1B coach has yet to be announced. Maybe that will be one of Charlie's guys. And yes, the FO does like Walker.

I don't buy into the idea of taking on an expensive contract Plus 1-3 B prospects as a method of improving the farm.

I feel that Vlad, Bo and D Jansen are A prospects. All capable of playing in the ML now. So everyone else is a B+, B or B- prospect.

Greinke is owed $95 mil over 3 or 4 years. That is a lot of money. If he is hurt or his old "nervous" condition recurs, the Jays payroll strength id destroyed IMO. He will also have to pitch in the AL East.

Carlos Santana is a good 1B. Owed $38 mil over 2 years I believe. So less expensive than Greinke. Now we have a crowd of 3 veterans playing 1B/DH. Santana, Smoak and Morales. Smoak can easily be moved, Morales also if we pay $4 mil or so of his salary. If healthy and doing as well as
the last 2 years both Smoak and Morales can be dealt at the trade deadline for similar returns as what we got this past deadline.

So we get 1-3 B prospects back. My top B prospects #4,5 & 6 are SRF, N Pearson and E Pardinho. Of course the other team, Arizona and the Phils don't have as strong a farm system as us. If they have no A prospects we can choose their top 3 if we want.

No opinion on Martinez, but at 34 years young, he certainly balances out the perception that our coaching staff was skewing older. It will be interesting to watch this group next season, at least.

I have long bemoaned the fact that as of now, all the players not named Bartolo Colon are younger than I am, but now the coaches make me look old?

Cistulli to the Jays is a total surprise, as is his landing in the scouting department, but the more I think about it, the more I like the idea. Most of us likely know Cistulli as the fringe five guy, and if he's able to find a few off-the-radar prospects for us on the cheap, fantastic. And it does speak positively to the cultural shift that Shapiro keeps talking about that Cistulli noted 'the combination of warmth and talent present in the organization has been uniformly impressive' as one of his reasons for joining the club.

Major changes to the Jays' Top 30 List occurring next year.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - MLB before June 1.
Danny Jansen - MLB Starting Catcher.
Anthony Alford - MLB when needed.
Sean Reid-Foley - MLB when needed.
Billy McKinney - MLB Starting Outfielder.
David Paulino - MLB when needed.
Reese McGuire - MLB-Ready when needed.
Jonathan Davis - MLB-Ready when needed unless DFAd.
Thomas Pannone - MLB when needed.
Rowdy Tellez - MLB when needed.

FWIW ... expanding on my Nov. 4th comment ... looking further into A.A.'s Braves 40 man roster ( 25p 2c 5inf 4of 4vac) there is a definite skew towards pitching and lack of depth in position players. Raffy Lopez was the backup catcher to Flowers and his offensive numbers are inferior to Martin's, plus their highest ranked (13th) catching prospect is in High 'A' and is probably inferior to any of the Jay's catching prospects. Given AA's history with trading pitching prospects ... is there a possibility of Jays eating most of Martin's contract and including any variation of Pentecost, Pompey, Alford and Urena (all Rule 5 eligible and possibly surplus to 2020) could return possibly 2 good pitching prospects ( say #8 Gohara & #12 Muller) thus creating up to 4 openings on the 40 man roeter ? ... better getting something in return than losing surplus invested value for nothing

That maybe a good trade jgadfly. Should be a big win for AA. We probably lose this trade because of the high risk.

So $10 mil + 2 players sounds good to me. But I want better than Gohara and K Muller. L Gohara seems to compare closely to T Mayza. Both lefties throw equally hard. Gohara has experience starting which is a plus. C Greene and D Paulino also have experience starting. Gohara ended the season on the 60 day DL, shoulder soreness. D Paulino has been on the 60 day DL a lot. K Muller may be a good prospect. In AA now. He still has 1 more year before being added to the 40 man, for Rule 5 protection.

Jays aren't getting anything close either Gohara or Muller alone with Martin and a C prospect. Why wouldn't the Braves just go and sign Grandal or Ramos or Chirinos or resign Suzuki or trade for a better catcher rather than giving up valuable prospects. You can't get real prospects combining pieces you don't want.

If Martin was a few years younger, you might be able to get something significant for him.  The Pierzynski/Nathan/Liriano trade had Giant fans cursing Sabean for a long time, but three WS titles eventually eased their pain. 

I think the Jays can get a prospect for Martin (if they eat up a large chunk of his salary), but probably closer to a C+/B- level prospect. I'd target the Astros who need a catcher and typically don't mind trading decent prospects in these types of minor deals.

I enjoy the discussions on da Box.

Regarding my R Martin trade proposal to Atlanta, I stated that AA would win that trade. My reasoning was that Atlanta last made the playoffs in 2013. Being back in 2018 with 90 wins which was 1 less that the 2nd WC team. The Rockies. So the fans now have winning expectations from a team that was not that great. Atlanta is young though with a strong farm. I think if AA disappoints over (? years), his job is at risk.

A catcher that makes the pitching better is very valuable in my books. Martin should do that. Glevin make a great point. Sign an as good or better catcher for less money and keep your prospects. I am guessing that the catchers mentioned would make $9-14 mil/yr on a 2-3 yr contract. I really don't know. J Mathis just signed a 2 year deal with Texas. I don't know for how much.

If you're eating 15M on Martin just to get a pitching prospect with lack of command/velocity/second pitch, maybe you're better off putting the money somewhere else.

That was the rumour, Charlie wanted to bring his AAA pitching coach and Atkins wanted to stick with Walker.
The young hitting coach seems sensible. The bench coach is an old hitting coach who trains hitting coaches.
Rivera must be really good at the other things he does.

I see that Rivera has spent the other half of his career in the Cleveland system.

The best scenario for a Martin trade is a swap of bad contracts.

Boston signed Steve Pearce for 1/6.25M.
It's a good match. He doesn't even need to stay healthy the whole year to be valuable.

Taking on an expensive pitching contract makes sense if you get prospects as well and only clear out other salary/excess. Yes, $95 mil is a lot of money but, in baseball term, it isn't a killer and should only affect year one of contention. This year the Jays should have nearly $40 mil of payroll space and next year a similar or larger amount of room. So both years adding a $30+ mil contract is a non-issue (or should be).

How else can the Jays add more prospects? International limits have killed that route, the cap on draft day has killed that route too. So outside of signing free agents from Japan it is very hard to get quality players with just cash. The easiest way left (after maxing out int free agents and draft day) is taking on payroll from teams with budget issues in exchange for prospects. However, that route is a lot smaller than it used to be as teams are now much more careful spending on free agents and the like.

What other routes are there for the Jays to spend that $40+ million they should have available?

We spent $3.5 mil on O Martinez. So most of the 2018 budget. We traded for no extra Int'l budget as far as I know. That really baffles me.

Looks like Cistulli could use some grammatical help from Dewey:

Acting on a recommendation from Jonah Keri, who’s culpability in this process can’t be overstated, Appelman and Cameron invited me

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-unexpected-development/

This is Phillies owner John Middleton on his spending plans for the team this off-season: “We’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

And from an Oct. 2018 article on mlb.com: "The Blue Jays' payroll is going down, but so far, the club has remained vague on specifics."

Each organization and front office has its own approach (and communication style), I guess...

The Jays don't have a set number for their budget (possible est. $140.0 Million, maybe more). The Jays have a general idea about how much, but they don't know what windfalls (trades or signings) might be available.

The Phillies were just under 500 at 80-82 with 7 guys having 2+ bWAR last year. 6 of their 9 regulars were 24-26 years old last year, the other 2 were 28/32 with the top 2 bench players (only ones over 200 PA) 27 and 26.

Their 5 man rotation was extremely healthy, #6 and beyond had a total of 12 starts, or half of what their #5 had. Those 5 were 24-26 years old except for Jake Arrieta at 32.

Young and healthy across the board. Mix in a 23 year old closer, and a 23 year old setup man and they could be scary good for awhile if these kids are for real. Shortstop was ugly (61 OPS+, -1.5 WAR, with negative defensive WAR) but the rest seems OK. The RF Nick Williams was just a 99 OPS+ so given they want to blow a fortune I expect them to chase Bryce Harper (just entering his age 26 season) hard. I'd advise them to chase a starter or two as well since no way they get that lucky with health again. Catcher is a little weak too, with the starter having sub 2 WAR (95 OPS+).

Wonder if they'd like Tulo? Maybe Martin would fit in nicely to give them some veteran presence and solid catching skills. Martin a ton more interesting to them than Tulo I'm sure. Still, if they want to get a 'wow' from the media take both and see if it helps season ticket sales.

Still, if they want to get a 'wow' from the media take both and see if it helps season ticket sales.

I'd imagine the 'wow' the organization is aiming for looks more like Machado or Harper than it does Martin and Tulowitzki.

The problem with Tulo is the lack of recent data.
I don't see how you can trade him until he plays at least one month to show what he's got.
If he'd played in September, you could try something like a swap of Tulo for Wil Meyers, who also has problem staying healthy and is on the book for 4/64, while the Padres has 3 outfielders blocked in AAA.

cool to have cistulli on board, even if he kept refusing to listen to me when I pointed out Danny Jansen was the perfect Fringe Five guy.

#BlueJays add to 40-man roster

RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Hector Perez
RHP Yennsy Diaz
RHP Patrick Murphy
RHP Jacob Waguespack