MLB Trade Rumors has a nice writeup:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/blue-jays-hire-charlie-montoyo-manager-rays.html

Off topic again but the C's have released its 2019 schedule. Their home and season opener is an afternoon game <a href="http://www.milb.com/documents/4/5/4/299684454/2019_Early_Bird_Schedule.pdf">June 14</a>.

Holy hell. You think I've worked with HTML before. Let's try that again. The 2019 schedule for the C's.

Montoyo gets a three year contract and will be in Toronto for media and press duties on Monday.

Didn't know much about Charlie Montoyo, but after watching a rays pr video on him I'm giving this a big thumbs up - this is the kind of guy you root for - from speaking no english to paying his dues in the minors and the tough medical battle of his son - seems to be very empathic which should come in handy with a young club and of course the Rays analytic bent.

Of course, I should mention the kiss of death on this site - Keith Law gives it a thumbs up!

You're saying Charlie Montoyo but I keep thinking Inigo Montoya. Hopefully that goes away.

#2JB, I gather you don't care for the hiring of Montoyo.  I don't have any opinions one way or the other, and it may be because I have forgotten some incidents.  What's the story?

Ink to Rays video on Charlie Montoyo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CxGGoou8CY

Mike, I believe #2JB was referring to Montoyo's Wikipedia page.

LINK (he's a former Expo so there's the CAD connection):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CxGGoou8CY

#2JB, I gather you don't care for the hiring of Montoyo.

I didn't write that in Wikipedia but you can find it right here. It's been since deleted.

Actually, I'm good with it. Montoyo doesn't appear to have any Cleveland ties whatsoever so it's nice to see this administration think outside the Cleveland box for a change. A .400 hitter in the majors, but I think he's 0-1 as an MLB manager as he filled in for Joe Maddon. Actually now, I hate the hire. Hiring a losing manager! ;D

Manager of the Durham Bulls? I hope he has this motivational method in his bag of tricks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnIaqAsnSxU

Sorry, mathesond and #2JB.  I don't see anything about truculence and belligerence in the wikipedia entry.  Am I blind as well as forgetful?  Can somebody enlighten me about what that is all about, or is this destined to be one of life's great mysteries- at least to me?

There goes the Blue Jays next several seasons.

What a grammatical mess!

Mike, I take it you're not a Maple Leafs' fan. When they hired Brian Burke as GM many years ago, he talked about truculence and belligerence as things he wanted from his players.

Speaking of spelling and grammar, this is from the Blue Jays website:

"Charlie possesses the warmth, authenticity and extensive experience that will help foster a championship culture in our clubhouse and throughout the Blue Jays organization," Shapiro said. "His collabourative nature and leadership ability will undoubtedly have a broad impact across the club."

Hopefully he doesn't exhibit any bourish behaviour during his tenure in Toronto.

I think we got labour relations covered too.

On the minus side, he's only 3 years younger than Gibby.

On the plus:
ex-Expos
experience managing
experience at the MLB level
speaks Spanish
knows the division
comes from a good org
nobody goes back to Tampa except as a last resort
6 times IL division winner
2 times IL champion
2 times IL manager of the year
recognized teacher

As was afraid of a guy who has never managed before.
Not the case at all here.

Montoyo also speaks English. Ozzie did.

Smoak nominated for a Gold Glove.

Odor? Really?

Gibby didn't, so speaking English is clearly not a requirement.

FWIW, Keith Law, with a reputation of often being negative when it comes to the Jays, says this on twitter:

"from everything I hear it sounds like a tremendous choice for the Jays"

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1055542338414620672

Charlie Montoyo apparently checks all the boxes the Jays' were looking for as a selection. It was a very good choice, but was it the Jays' first consideration?

Brad Ausmus was hired by the Angels as Manager. He was not a Candidate for the Blue Jays' position.
David Bell was hired by the Reds as Manager. He was a Candidate. Was he the Jays' first consideration?
Rocco Baldelli was hired by the Twins as Manager. He was also a Candidate. Was he the Jays' first or second consideration?

He's not just an ex-Expos. He was on Vladimir Guerrero's team.

In one day, 2 members of the Tampa organization were hired to manage elsewhere. Other than Farrell, has anyone from the Jays org ever been taken to manage another team?

Does Bobby Cox count?

Jimy Williams managed after Toronto.

After he was shown the door. ( Middle of May,1989 )

No Jimy.  No mas.  Por favor. 

Interesting that many teams have gone with younger coaches who have no managerial experience, but the Jays went with an older candidate with tons of it (in the minors). Considering their other rumored candidates were all the former (younger/no managerial experience), it's surprising they ended up with the latter.

Seems like a solid hire either way. Managers nowadays are extensions of the front office anyway, so as long as he deals with players well and can help in the development of prospects, then he'll be fine. In the next 1-2 years, the team will have an influx of young talent, including the ones already up. Hiring a manager who has dealt almost exclusively with AAA talent might be advantageous in that sense.

Got one- Mike Redmond managed in Dunedin, then was hired to managed the Marlins.

Looking at this hire I like a lot of it - the tenancy now is for younger and younger managers. So going left when everyone else goes right can result in major gains. Odds are he is good with kids given all the minor league time and he probably is good at recognizing when a pitcher 'has it' or not on a particular day by this point. Very important skill.

I don't think you can evaluate a managerial hiring until you see how he actually, you know, manages. Who does he decide to give playing time to? How does he use the bullpen? How does he use the starting pitchers? What does he do when a player is not performing well? What does his batting order look like? Does he use pinch-hitters in obvious pinch-hit situations? How much does he use small-ball strategies like bunting, stealing, hit and run, (hopefully not very much) and if he uses them, does he do it well? These are the things I'll be watching in order to form an opinion about how good a manager Montoyo is.

So, is there any chance Montoya brings with him the Rays strategy of starting the game with a bullpen guy for an inning or two ?

Before that, they will select all the new assistant coaches.

The problem with evaluating managers now is that it's essentially the FO/Analytics managing through the manager as conduit - maintaining a positive clubhouse,good interpersonal relationships and handling the media are probably the manager's main responsibilities - actually managing the game, lineups etc. probably mostly at FO direction.

should say "with the manager as conduit"

The 2019 Jays are not in the position to try and eke out an extra win by optimally deploying player resources every game, so I really hope the new manager has the freedom from the front office to (not) do that. The next year or two should be about figuring out the limits of the young players, not trying to micro-mange them. I want Montoyo to put players in position to fail sometimes, just to see if they can do better. Lefties don't learn to hit lefties sitting on the bench. Starters don't become aces by pitching to only 18 guys a night. Relievers never learn how to get out opposite-handed batters if you don't let them learn. You can always dial back what is being asked of players later, but I want to see some ambitious failures in 2019, not a super-optimized 77-85 squad. Remind me I said this in May when I'm complaining about Montoyo letting Reid-Foley pitch the 6th inning despite having thrown 90 pitches already, of course.

I don't consider 53 to be old for a manager. Young would be in his 40's, old >60....so I'd say he's middle-aged. Never considered Gibby to be an old manager.

I confess my preferences for manager was not based on any real insight into any of the candidates' competancies. Accordingly, I will wait until he goes to the bullpen in game 1 before I condemn the pick.

I will wait until he goes to the bullpen in game 1 before I condemn the pick.

For sure. And then you'll hear me complain, I promise.

Who does he decide to give playing time to?

Was it Bill James who said this was the single most important influence a manager had? It sure makes sense.

So, is there any chance Montoya brings with him the Rays strategy of starting the game with a bullpen guy for an inning or two ?
God, I hope not.

I like the opener approach for some pitchers.  I don't think that it is inconsistent with the possibility of stretching out young pitchers.  Imagine that the manager decides that a pitcher ought to be restricted to 1-2 innings because of blister issues, and uses that pitcher as the opener, with (say) Ryan Borucki as the second pitcher.  Is there any reason that Borucki (if pitching well) cannot be used for the remainder of the game and throw 7+ innings?  I cannot think of any.  Do you want to stretch out pitchers to 9 innings in the modern game?  No.

The Blue Jays traditionally have given all of their Pitchers every chance to be a Starter instead of fast tracking Big Power Pitchers to the MLB Bullpen. They might get a good Reliever from that group years later, sometimes past their best years.

To use an Opener, the Jays would need multiple Big Power Arms in the Bullpen to pull that off. Right now, Ken Giles is it for Big Power Arms.

Openers and other unconventional pitcher usage patterns (and fabulous OF defence) seems to have played a role in coaxing 150 functional innings from Ryan Yarbrough. The Jays should be so lucky in 2019.

"Was it Bill James who said this was the single most important influence a manager had? It sure makes sense"

I think you're right, Chuck. He used to talk about managers who could figure out who could help the team win in given situations, like Earl Weaver used to do with the Orioles teams he managed, using platoons a lot. James liked to point out that there were guys who could play mlb, but just didn't get the chance, while others who were poor performers kept getting playing time. I have found Blue Jay managers in the past have sometimes made head-scratching decisions about who they played, vs who they kept on the bench. As somebody else mentioned, the front office is now likely more involved in this type of decision than they used to be, although the extent of that involvement probably varies a fair bit from team to team.

I'm expecting the players will be told (before the game) where to play for each hitter rather than having the coaches adjust the defense continuously.

The first 2 years will be development years for the young players.
A Puerto Rican manager will probably let the players express themselves any way they choose, but will probably demand that they play the game the right way, with hustle.

Analytics provides data on how to deal with each hitter, but pitchers must command their pitches to be able to take advantage of that data. The Jays are not there with their starters, except maybe Borucki.

I'm not expecting too see small ball tactics with this crew. When Bichette comes up, I'm expecting that they'll let him steal bases. Maybe they'll use a fourth outfielder with speed, maybe not. You play with what you have.

This year I'm happy if the Jays go wild on the bases with tons of CS along with tons of SB, lots of crazy baserunning, super-aggressive plays in the field, kids left in the game when a pinch hitter or runner should come in, pitchers left in for more batters than they should see or an extra inning here and there but not to damage their arms. Just push all the kids to their limits. 2019 should be all about seeing what is possible. Do we have any Halladay's who can go 9 or any Eichhorns who can do 2 innings regularly in relief?

I think the Jays can stand to be a bit more creative with just about everything, not just how they use the pitching staff. There is defensive positioning, base running, etc. They need to improve practically everywhere.

Openers could certainly help some of the Jays pitchers. For example, David Paulino has a great arm but can't stay healthy. If they can find a way to limit his workload but still get 100-150 IP out of him, then that's one way of maximizing his value rather than just tossing him in a 1 inning reliever role.

I'd like to see 2019 be more of a risk taking season. See what works. Let the youngsters have their lumps.

The opener works best if you have pitchers with splits on both side of the rubber.
I'm not sure who would open for whom here.
It's more likely that the Jays will find a vet to eat some innings.

Meanwhile in Baltimore, the plan seems to be waiting until November to start the search for a new president who will then have to hire a new GM who will then audition for a new coach.

And the Met's new GM is going to be the agent that represent Cespedes, DeGrom and Syndergaard.
I guess that's one way to make headlines.

I don't know who Baltimore's new President might be? There is a thought that the Mets settled for the second best G.M. Chaim Bloom is still available for Baltimore. There are still more quality Managerial candidates than there are jobs. Baltimore just might fumble and stumble their way into something good.

With regards to GM candidates and managerial candidates, I don't know how any of us on the outside can possibly gauge who is and isn't qualified or how they rank. And even if you could somehow miraculously measure their qualifications, a further dimension is how they would fit with the teams in question.

The only way we know who is "good" or the "bright shiny" is who survives to the last decision. And checking: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

The problem with teams like the Mets and the Orioles is that their owners have the reputation of overriding their GM.

Baltimore assembled a huge pile of international free agent money and then didn't spend any on the top prospects.

Despite having the most IFA money Baltimore misses on cuban pitcher Sandy Gaston who signs with Tampa.

IFA signings AL East (so far)
Balt-9,Bos-36,NYY-37,TB-22,Tor-35

info from mlb.com transactions

Jon Heyman on Fancred sports says it isn't certain that the Jays will pick up Smoak's option. He also writes: "It should come as no surprise that the Jays are considering two from Kevin Cash’s staff in Tampa Bay. Cash is part of the Cleveland group, as are Jays leaders Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins."

Which two staff members is he talking about?

For those who complain about Rogers as an owner just be very, very thankful we aren't in the Mets or O's situation. Now those are horrible owner situations. The Mets should be able to financially compete with anyone but a stupid move by their owner (past owner?) screwed the team over for literally decades.

This isn't anyone other than Kevin Cash that I'd want from Tampa's Staff.
If the Jays can find a quality upgrade to Pete Walker as Pitching Coach, replace him. If not, keep him, because it's hard to find better.
Pete Walker 2012-2018-?
Everyone can go if that's necessary. The New Manager should decide.
DeMarlo Hale 2013-2018-?
Brook Jacoby 2015-2018-?
Dane Johnson 2015-2018-?
Tim Leiper 2014-2018-?

So how much of a requirement is being bilingual for the assistant coaches? I would like to see John MacDonald as third base coach/infield coach but I don't know if he can speak Spanish.

If that article was written prior to the Jays announcing Montoyo being hired, then Heyman was referring to Baldelli and Montoyo as the two from Cash's staff that the Jays were considering.

Smoak's option seems a no brainer. Worse case you exercise and trade, but he has expected value way above option value.

You trade Smoak at the deadline to whatever team needs a bat.
They haven't become the Rays overnight.

A few days for this, a few days for that and a few days for the necessary business for Teams. Then four months of Free Agency commences.

"Smoak's option seems a no brainer. Worse case you exercise and trade, but he has expected value way above option value."

Agree that they should pick it up but he doesn't have that much value. Let's say there are around 15 teams that see themselves as potential contenders. How many of those teams need a 1Bman? Maybe 3 or 4. Now, take into consideration that other teams like the Phillies and Rays also have 1Bmen they'd like to trade. Pearce, Duda, Adams, and Reynolds are free agents as are players like Daniel Murphy and Marwin Gonzalez who can play 1B. I think the Jays could get something for Smoak, but it won't be much. The market is too saturated.

Smoak was one of the best 1B in the AL. You can't have enough bats in the postseason.
He's nominated for a gold glove. He'll be an upgrade on most of the postseason teams.
He's probably worth more than the guy that would take his place on the 40 roster.

First basemen in general have limited value in today's market, so it's not exclusive to Smoak. Teams just do not value that position as much as they used to.

I think the Jays will definitely pick up the option. Whether they trade him or not is less clear. There is no real "right time" to trade him. His value will be limited this winter and next trade deadline. Trading him now and giving the team that acquires him a full year of control might increase the return a bit, but I don't think it will be anything significant either way.

Sure,Mike; but toss in a couple of "pinta"s and a "nina", too for good measure. It's a tough world out there.

Montoyo's introduction jersey has #25 on it.  He joins Doug Ault, Roy Lee Jackson, Devon White, Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, David Purcey, and Marco Estrada (plus a couple of other for one year only).  The club has had some awfully good 19s- Velez, McGriff, Molitor and Bautista. 

For those who complain about Rogers as an owner just be very, very thankful we aren't in the Mets or O's situation. Now those are horrible owner situations. The Mets should be able to financially compete with anyone but a stupid move by their owner (past owner?) screwed the team over for literally decades.

I will definitely take just cheap over cheap *and* stupid any day.

Hell, I'd rather have cheap over stupid straight up (eg. James Dolan of the Knicks - he'll spend, but he'll do it like a drunken sailor).

Free Agency start Nov. 3rd, while the GM Meetings are to start Nov. 6-8 in Carlsbad Cal. Nothing significant is expected to happen for the Jays until later, possibly much later.

Charlie says focus on day 1 will be winning. I don't see how declining Smoak's option sends that message.

I mean, I'm probably reading too much into this, but does that in a sense close the book on Marco? Wouldn't it be a little weird to give away a longtime player's number unless you aren't planning on having him back?

That said, anyone who reminds me of White/Delgado/Glaus is a-ok in my book.

Thinking ahead 1,2 or even 3 steps is probably being done.

That means distributing ABs. You have to respect the veterans, but also give ABs to the kids that need them and have earned them. Smoak and Morales are veterans. Tellez needs to earn ABs at 1B/DH. A day at DH for Vlad, Hernandez and others gives them a little rest off the field and gets a day off for the regular 1B/DH. D Jansen can get DH ABs and relief from catching.

A step 3 example would be a promotion for Biggio late in the year if his AAA performance merits it.

If we are contending then everything changes.

If we are contending then everything changes.

Well sure, we'll be dealing with the swarms of locusts and all that.

Not to mention pigs flying and someone forgetting to pay the heating bill in Hell.

Thank you for your replies Chuck and ISLAND BOY. I gather that you think contending in 2019 is impossible.

Along those lines I will predict that no 2019 Blue Jay will win the Cy Young or MVP award. Also impossible.

The Jays won 73 games last year. The year of the overinflated Win Totals resulting from beating so many crappy teams. That made a Wild Card berth very hard to reach.
1)The Offense is basically returning everyone good and a question mark or two. For all the struggles it was a very good learning experience for most of the Players, as they got better. I expect the Offense in 2019 to be better, possibly even much better, as 2019 is Vladimir Guerrero's year.
2)The Defense for the most part is what it is. Depending on who plays where, it could be better. Some give better D than others.

This alone could generate many more wins. How many more wins depends on the Pitching, both Starters and Relief. Will that be enough to contend in 2019? Maybe.

Yankees have pitching problems and Red Sox are set to be hit by the age decline bug starting next year in their ace pitching department (Sale Price)

I predict the Red Sox will narrowly win the division with TB near the top and the Jays being a solid 3rd doing what TB did this year.

Yankees will be bumped down due to lack of pitching.

Poor Bullpens can win 15-20 games (might lose more) simply by being the Pitcher-of-Record at the time the Team takes a lead they don't lose.
Better Bullpens can win 20-25 games by being better at their job (losing fewer games).
Much better Bullpens can win 25-30 games by being very good at what they do (losing still fewer games).
The Best Bullpens can carry a Team to the World Series.

Depending on how good the Bullpen is determines how many games the Rotation should win. Having 60 or more wins from the Rotation usually means Playoffs.

The Jays will pick up Smaok's option according to reports.

Thanks Gerry. This FO wastes nothing.

Just noticed Blue Jays website doesn't list Brook Jacoby as coach any more. Haven't seen any news/notice about him officially leaving. As far as I know, he'd be in the same state of limbo as the others.

The Smoak option article is covered at https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/blue-jays-exercise-justin-smoak-option.html

From that article:

His option value jumped from $6MM to $8MM this season when he reached a combined total of 1100 PAs between the 2017-18 seasons, and he’ll now give the Jays either an affordable middle-of-the-order bat for the 2019 season or an interesting trade chip to market to other clubs this winter or next summer. While slugging first basemen generally haven’t been valued as much in recent seasons as they were even five years ago, Smoak still ranks among the game’s most productive hitters over the past two seasons and is a legitimate bargain at that modest one-year commitment.


From my analysis:
Again, 1 year $8M to exercise, versus a buyout that would cost the Jays $250K + a major league minimum $500k (for whoever else would have been on the roster). So that makes the Jays real net cost $7.25M for Smoak. Even without the break out over the past 2 seasons, he'd be close to that value (I.e., the average of 2015 and 2016). When you look at 2017 and 2018 it is beyond obvious. A WAR is $8-10 M or so, and he's worth 2.5-3 WAR the past 2 years. Even if you think he's going to regress to 1.5 WAR that is still worth double his option value.

In other words, a no brainer no matter where the Jays are on the success cycle or competitive or not.

Bpoz, I didn't mean to be negative but a lot of things would have to go right next year for the Jays to be competitive. Maybe if Stroman and Sanchez come back from injury and stay healthy, if Borucki and Reid-Foley continue to improve and another decent pitcher is added, if a few good bullpen arms can be added, if Tulo comes back strong or at least his ability to play or not is determined in spring training, if Jansen and Tellez con be productive players, if Devon Travis can rediscover his batting stroke, if Vlad can come up and be a star at the MLB level, if the team can improve it's defense.

Realistically I think the team can be competitive but next season will be more of a transition year. There will be a new manager, young players gaining experience, and it will be the last year of Martin and Morales contracts. Tulo's situation will be sorted out and Pillar may not be around much longer. I don't think even the front office expects the team to contend next season, but if they do, I'd be happy to be wrong.

I think that's it for Travis. There's too many good infielders in the system to keep him for long.

Contention only means one of Boston/New York being plagued by injuries and the Jays being better than Tampa.
Stroman and Sanchez could come back. They're not over the hill. The defense isn't going to improve dramatically.
It's more a matter of ground ball pitchers elevating the ball against low ball hitters, not shifting and pitching outside to speedy hitters, etc...

If Tellez takes over at first, delaying the move to the trade deadline gives him another year of control and pushes him out of super 2 territory.

Your thoughts are always welcome to me ISLAND BOY.

Your list of "if goes right" covers everything. I would be happy to take any version of Stroman except 2018. A good Sanchez too. I have not yet picked my 3rd "goes right". Maybe power offense has a good chance of happening.

I don't know what went wrong for Boston, NYY and TB in 2018.

Tellez is a trade candidate but then again so is Smoak. There will be moves ahead of the 2019 season.

Gaining a year of control or avoiding super 2 status with Tellez doesn't seem like a big deal to me. He is not a top prospect, nor does he play an important position (his best position might end up being DH). If the team likes him and thinks he can play in the bigs to begin 2019, then do it. He's likely not going to be good enough for the service time or super 2 status to even matter. Even if he is, he plays a position that the league does not value anymore, so I don't think any potential money saved will be all that significant.

With Guerrero, the extra year will be worth tens of millions (and that's understating it). The Jays have to pick their spots with that type of approach.

Probably not the best thread for this but Baseball America's top 10 for the Jays just dropped:

1. Vlad
2. Bo
3. Jansen
4. Pardinho
5. Groshans
6. Pearson
7. Kevin Smith
8. SRF
9. Biggio
10. Hiraldo

I wouldn't put Biggio in my top 10 & would like to find spots for Hector Perez & David Paulino .

I have Biggio, but I'd like to see another year out of Groshans before "#5" excited.

Scottt - good point about the Jays needing just 2 things to be contenders - beating Tampa and having one of the NYY or Red Sox have an off year (injuries, bad luck, whatever). Not easy but possible.

The best thing for the Jays is to keep working on getting the kids in and hoping they get good together for 2020-2024 but 2019 will be a 'lets see what we got' year with a shot at 'woohoo' if all goes right. IE: Vlad is a star from the get go, the pitchers stay healthy and good, Danny Jansen is the real deal behind the plate, Grichuk stays as 2nd half and doesn't repeat last April, McKinney plays well, etc. Lots needed but it could happen like it did for Atlanta this year.

Much more realistic is another 4th place finish with around 80 wins. At least one kid flops, someone does really well, and we see some trades mid season to say goodbye to Smoak, and maybe Morales (if either is healthy and productive), Martin, with Stroman and Sanchez both on the trading block if the team falls but they don't.

I expect 2019 to both be fun and frustrating.

Tampa Bay was 13-6 vs Toronto, 7 games over .500. They finished 90-72, just 8 games over .500.

Toronto was 4-15 vs Boston; 6-13 vs NYY; 6-13 vs Tampa; 0-7 vs Oakland and 57-41, .582 vs everyone else.

So tell me again how great Tampa is and how poor Toronto is.

Somethings will be different between 2018 and 2019;
1) The hope was to contend in 2018 by the FO and Manager. So use the veterans. 2019 will have a different goal.
LF in 2018 started with Granderson/Pearce. T Hernandez arrived on April 13 and LF was his position.
Many Bauxites said that Pearce in LF would cause an injury. It happened. But 1B/DH was occupied. In the end S Pearce WS MVP happened. So good for him. I don't think it was our bad luck that gave us a less useful S Pearce than the Red Sox had.

2) Sorry, I don't know how to continue. There are many other different things. The rotation will be less predictable in 2019. 2018 seemed set with 5 SPs. Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, Estrada and Garcia were written in stone practically. Currently #4 and #5 are to be determined for 2019 after Stroman, Sanchez and Borucki.

Thanks Richard SS for dissecting the season. That really was a horrible 16-48 W-L record. We had to have done a lot better in 2015,16 and 17.

You are right TB is great. I definitely agree. At the July 31 trade deadline they sold not bought. N Eovaldi July 25 to Red Sox. July 31 C Archer to the Pirates.
TB's record in Aug was 17-10 and Sept 18-9. A .648 record. That is a ridiculous record.

That's not how it works.

That's not how any of this works.

"Tampa Bay was 13-6 vs Toronto, 7 games over .500. They finished 90-72, just 8 games over .500."

Tampa finished 18 games above .500.

"Toronto was 4-15 vs Boston; 6-13 vs NYY; 6-13 vs Tampa; 0-7 vs Oakland and 57-41, .582 vs everyone else."

If you discount games that you lose, your record will improve.

If you discount every game that the red sox won, then they would be the worst team in mlb history.

I have greater faith in Ryan Bourucki pitching a full Season than I do with either Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman doing the same. That said, I'd prefer the remaining two spots not being filled in-house. Having Sean Reid-Foley and Thomas Pannone in AAA might make the Jays better. Actually having any of these Starters as the Team's #1 Starter might not and will not be a success. Acquiring a sacrificial "goat/lamb" as the Team's #1 Starter just might work better.

Trading for a true #1 Starter will be expensive, but worthwhile if the Jays are so inclined. As an alternative option, someone less costly might work as well. My suggestion:
Sonny Gray RHP, 29, 5'10"190 is being shopped by the NYY.
Home: 4-4, 6.98, 59.1, 1.904 WHIP, 6.8 SO/9 (doing it the easy way).
Away: 7-5, 3.17, 71.0, 1.115 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9.
It might not be the best selection, perhaps the Jays have a better idea, but this might work.

I can't see the point in trading for Sonny Gray. One foot in, one foot out? This isn't the hokey pokey.

So at home in New York for 41 games (15 G, 11 GS) Sonny Gray was terrible, barely 5th Starter material. Toronto plays in New York 9-10 games a year, barely two Starts for Gray.

Not in New York for 41 games (15 G, 12 GS) Sonny Gray was Front-of-the-Rotation material. Toronto plays 152-153 games a year outside of New York, 28-29 possible starts for Gray.


There's always the potential for a Mid-Season Trade acquiring top assets if he's good. Or keep him if he's good and the Jays are going for it. If he's not good, the Jays get a better draft position.

Sonny Gray has demonstrated that he doesn't do well under pressure.
That limits his trade deadline value. Think Estrada, who for different reason couldn't be relied on.

Baldelli is keeping only the hitting coach and his assistant with the Twins.

I'm honestly shocked they dropped solarte. good on them.


really like that BA top-10. bang on.

if I were to quibble I'd drop Groshans a couple spots and move SRF up a couple. I'd also probably include a kloffenstein or Lopez or Moreno in the top 10 instead of Biggio.

Did they drop Solarte? It seems like they declined the option, but that he's still on the 40 roster and arbitration eligible.
Non-tender candidate for a bit later, for sure.

Borucki and Gurriel have graduated from last year.
Alford and Warmoth have taken a dive.

Next year should graduate Guerrero, Jansen and maybe SRF.
Biggest candidate to take a dive here is Biggio. Let's hope not.
They're still in a decent drafting slot, so their first pick should make next year's list.

The Oct. 31 BA chat accompanying the Jays top 10 list is worth a read (it's free). Ben Badler is quite positive about the Jays' farm system, describing it as around #5ish in baseball. A few notes (lots more in the thread):

- Badler thinks Bichette can stay at SS (great news)
- He's impressed with the leap forward Biggio has made
- Reports on Groshans are very positive
- Cal Stevenson "could prove to be a great pick out of the 10th round"
- Kloffenstein got some top-10 consideration
- Thinks "there is something there" with Noda
- Likes Moreno
- Sees Pardinho as potential mid- or even front-rotation SP

Solarte's option was not picked up but he still has a year of control left, so now the Jays either have to tender or non-tender him. Seems pretty likely it will be the latter, as there is no room for him on the roster as is (never mind his poor performance in 2018). They might wait to see if he can be traded for something. I can't imagine a scenario where he's brought back other than non-tendering him and maybe bringing him back on a significantly lesser salary, but even that doesn't make much sense given how the roster is looking. They took a chance on him, it failed, and time to move on.

As far as the top 10 list, seems like a reasonable list. Badler mentioned "5-6, maybe 7" Jays are likely to make the top 100 this year. I think the more interesting thing to watch for is how publications rank 11-30 in the system. That is going to be very subjective, but the Jays have a lot of prospect depth.

I'm curious to see how next year's farm system will rank. Vlad, Jansen, and SRF will definitely be off the list, so that puts a lot of pressure on some of the 11-30 types to take steps forward, in addition to the existing top 10.

Solarte is expected to earn more in arbitration than what his option was worth, he is done with the Jays as expected.

The Baseball America rankings are ok, but Hiraldo inside the top 10 is a little high. I would probably prefer Hector Perez, or TJ Zeuch in that slot. I think Parick Murphy is going be overlooked on these lists, but his stuff and performance last year line up well enough as those two guys as well.

while it's likely, I'm not absolutely sure that Solarte is done with the Jays - he had a decent first 2 months - maybe he was playing injured or the jays internal analytics are more optimistic - the Jays saved 4.75M by declining his option - if they can sign him for about 2.5M using his poor season,the glut of MI on the market & a reminder of last year's market as leverage, I wouldn't be shocked especially if the Jays intend to non-tender Travis,put Diaz on the market,expect Tulo to be on the DL etc.

The list is pretty good. As you go down, the difference between players gets very small so the difference between say prospect #8 and prospect #15 is much smaller than the difference between say prospect #3 and #4. Also, everyone has their personal tastes. Do you like players higher in the minors or players who have theoretical upside lower in the minors? Etc...Myself, I always want to knock pitchers down because I never trust them.

I happen to agree with a lot of the comments in the BA chat and the rankings, but I didn't really learn anything new.  It's a nice overview for someone who doesn't follow the minor league system.  I'll wait for the BB top 30 for the deeper dive!

I always appreciate the BB top 30, but I find there is value added in the BA lists and chats (even if this one wasn’t particularly groundbreaking). For example, the BB off-season top 30 for 2018 had Pardinho at #23, which I felt was too conservative, while BA’s off-season list had him at #6. Some of BA’s apparently bold valuations turn out to have significant merit (not always, of course).

Lots of time to re-rank the top 10 on our personal lists.
I always wait for daBox list. Love the discussions.
SRF needs 17 ML innings more to make the 50 IP cut off. I have moved him up to #4. Absolutely dominated AA. Adjusted reasonably well to AAA and the ML.

7 starts in the Majors. Only KC and Miami were easy teams. He did badly against KC. 1st ML game. Also V badly in his 1st AAA game. 2.1 IP 8 ER. Nerves I suppose.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/toronto-blue-jays-2018-mlb-draft-grades/


https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/toronto-blue-jays-2019-top-10-prospects-chat/

For those curious, I summarized a batch of top 10 lists from 2017 at https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20180310002325149

Disagree. Sean Reid-Foley pitched decently in K.C., Jays couldn't score. Sean Reid-Foley sucked badly in Game 2, vs NYY. He sucked again in Game 4, vs Cleveland. He pitched like a #1 Starter vs Miami (Gm 3) and NYY (Gm 5). Finished off his last two games decently.

Sean Reid-Foley can definitely pitch at the MLB level. Experience should make him better.

BNS tweeted that Jose Fernandez was claimed by the Tigers, kinda surprised they let him go, his stuff looked good, and a lefty to boot.

Tigers announced the move. Useful might not be good enough anymore.

Fernandez had an ERA over 6 in the majors and really only had one fairly good stretch in the minors. At this point in our rebuild if you are a reliever you need to be on the 25 man, because the 40-man will be full of prospects who have at least some potential to be starters or regulars.

C Yelich had a great year in 2018 for the Brewers. He had awesome numbers. He also bats left handed. His best ML season to date and possibly a career year.

Vlad and Bo are right handed batters. Vlad's minor league numbers are better than Yelich's. Bo has great minor league numbers so far. So I would not want to say that Bo's minor league numbers are superior. But should be very close.

I feel hopeful that Vlad and Bo could have a few great seasons like Yelich had. Its reasonably realistic?

Perhaps, I thought there were other relievers they could have lost over Fernandez, also, not sure about using his MLB era against him when it was over 10.1 innings, it's rather meaningless.

Fernandez is someone I’d rather have kept if possible, but he had some pretty unimpressive minor league numbers and it’s not like protecting a potential spot lefty should be top of the Jays’s priority list. I tested to see who else gets removed from the 40man.

Fernandez is the only announced claim. There will be others claimed or outrighted shortly.

as I was saying:

from Davidi:

#BlueJays doing some 40-man roster housecleaning. Righty Justin Shafer clears waivers and outrighted to triple-A Buffalo. Righties Rhiner Cruz, Taylor Guerrieri and Jake Petricka clear waivers and become free agents.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/blue-jays-outright-shafer-cruz-guerrieri-petricka.html
Justin Shafer will be a good Reliever when needed.

I thought there was a chance that they would keep Petricka, but it is a good thing to move out average veterans. The cuts all seem to align with the full blown rebuild we are about to embark on.

Also Clayton Kershaw just signed for 3 years and 93 million dollars, which to me that seems awfully light. It carries a high AAV, but with injuries mounting for Kersahw I think he should have looked for a higher guaranteed amount of money.

I am surprised that Solarte and Leiter have not been dismissed yet.

I was expecting the team to hold on to Petricka, even at his projected arbitration figure, but this clearly signals an emphasis on keeping the 40-man roster as clean as possible. The fringe RP types likely will not be kept. Barnes and Leiter may be in trouble.

Yeah I also find it strange that they didn't let Leiter go as well.

Early days yet, more to come. The Jays had to restore Players on the 60-Day DL to the Roster. Adding a few other spaces is always a bonus.

Leiter and Solarte are almost certain to be let go. That would make 6 open spots on the 40-man. I would expect the team to drop Pompey as well, although I'd like to keep him. Guys like D. Smith and J. Davis are droppable as well, if they need more room.

I'm kind of surprised to see Fernandez placed on waivers, and not surprised to see him claimed. Could be a late bloomer, although his minor league numbers were pedestrian until he reached Buffalo this year. That was an amazing stretch of games he had for the Bisons. Probably not a meaningful number of games, but you never know. I was afraid they would lose Shafer - glad they didn't.