High Leverage Liam strikes again.

Playoff pitching strategy is weird, complicated, different. What is going on???

I'm cheering on Colorado this year, Milwaukee was owned by Selig who cost the Expos a title shot.  Yankees and Red Sox are evil.  Houston has the woman beater.  Oakland I can cheer as well, and I could live with the Dodgers getting yet another title as it has been a LOOONG time for them.

I think the Yankees got a couple of calls in that 4 run inning. The 3-2 pitch to Stanton that was called a ball was a strike, and it looked to me on the replay that Lucroy's glove moved a little due to contact with Voit just before Voit's hand touched the plate.

I will cheer for anybody playing against the Yankees or Red Sox. If they play each other, I don't watch at all. I guess if anybody in the AL is interesting to me it's the Indians, with Donaldson , who is starting to hit like he can, and Edwin.

In the NL, I kind of like Milwaukee, I guess. Or the Rockies. The Dodgers are a definite no. Love seeing the big payroll teams lose.

Milwaukee is probably the team I'd like to win. They're fun and haven't won in a long time. Dodgers would also be OK. Colorado is poorly run and was 14th in the majors in Pythagorean record. I don't always want the best teams to win, but I don't like it when mediocre teams do. In the AL, yuck. I think I hate Cleveland the least of those teams. It would have been Houston but the Osuna trade was a huge black mark for me.

The absolutely not teams for me are Cleveland and Houston.

Go Dodgers.

I'm still taking Cleveland over Houston.
Hopefully there's a couple of Osuna/Donaldson match ups.

Red Sox over Yankees.
Still think Happ will win the Happ/Pearce match ups though.

I find it hard to care about NL teams.
Sure, Colorado has Oh, but I don't know what to make of the Spanberger, Forrest Wall, Bryan Baker trio.
Except that I used to work with a Brian Baker, so it would make for some amusing lunch conversations if he ever turns into something.

The good news in Boston and New York playing each other is that one will be put out. I'm pulling for Cleveland with EE and Donaldson on the roster, although I know they won a weak division. I'm not cheering against a group of players who had no part in choosing their team name over a hundred years ago.

Milwaukee and Colorado have my support in the NL, too bad they're playing each other. I agree with John about the Atlanta fan's tomahawk chop. When they start that, along with the equally stupid wailing chant, it sets my teeth on edge.

I posted this on Monday (edited to remove Chicago and Oakland), for those looking for recent Jays to cheer for, you have a lot of choices:
Recent ex-Jays littering the playoffs, with Osuna in Houston, Happ in New York, and Donaldson in Cleveland possibly playing leading roles, as well as Oh in Colorado, Granderson in Milwaukee, Pearce in Boston. So to my quick scan only the Dodgers and Braves without a 2017 or 2018 Jay on the roster. And the Braves ran Bautista out there for a while, Axford was on the Dodgers but maybe not the postseason roster since he hasn't pitched in 10 days?

I think I'm in the boat of cheering for the NL teams first, then the AL teams. The AL really does have a collection of the teams I want to win the least, so I'll hope for a series of calamities.

Predictions, as made by a coin flip:
ALDS
Bos/NYY - Bos
Cle/Hou - Hou
ALCS
Bos beats Hou

NLDS
Col/Mil - Mil
Atl/LAD - LAD
NLCS
LAD beats Mil

WS
Bos over LAD

Damn, my coin loves favourites this year.

It is fascinating/confusing to see the firings happen. Both Boston and NYY had good success last year, yet fired their manager. Many heads have rolled this year so far.

My bizarre rant ended up in the wrong thread, due to me being a confused individual. I'm sure anyone reading it will know where it truly belongs, but did mean to post it here.

I can't cheer for any MLB team other than the Jays. I can anti-cheer though. Which team do I want more to lose. This year I want Houston to lose the most.

Whenever the Yankees and Red Sox play, I want them both to lose, even though that is not possible by the laws of physics. Or maybe it's bylaws of mathematics. As you can tell, I'm not a lawyer. But they have been the easiest teams to anti-cheer for for a long time.

All I know is some team other than the Jays will win enough games and become the WS champions and I will not be happy.

They also have one ex-Jay that A-Web missed -- Eric Thames.

Interesting to see what happens with the vaunted Cubs Dynasty going forward. Suddenly they're not so young, and seem to have passed their peak. Would be funny if in the end, all those years of ideal rebuilding plus a huge payroll ended up with them getting just one world series.

I know! A couple guys in their starting lineup are already 28 years old!

The Brewers definitely did really well, but timing played a huge part as a player the calibre of Yelich being traded with the contract he has was a gift from the heavens. You could argue he has the most valuable contract in the league given his age, the years, and the cost certainty that comes with it. That changed everything for them. The Jays saw a similar situation with Donaldson who was traded with four years of arbitration left. Just goes to show that developing talent is very important, but timing and luck also play a huge part.

"all those years of ideal rebuilding"

3? Epstein took over prior to 2012. By year 4, they won 97 games, and the WS the year after.

"plus a huge payroll"

On the other hand, this. Committed $185 million to sign Yu, Chatwood, and Morrow this past offseason. Not one was on their playoff roster.

age and salary as of nextyear, with this year's average WAR

Hendriks 28, ARB, 3.6war
Lester 35, 27.5m, 2.6war
Hamels 35, 20.0m, 2.6war
Quintana 30, $10.5m, 2.0war
montgomery 29, ARB, 1.5war
Darvish 32, 20.0m, 0.1war
Smyly 30, $7.0m, 0.0war
Chatwood 29, $12.5m, -0.2war

Cishek 33, $6.5m, 1.6war
Strop 34, $6.3m, 1.5war
Edwards 27, pre-ARB, 1.2war
Morrow 34, $9.0m, 1.0war
Kintzler 34, $10.0m, 0.2war
Duensing 36, $3.5m, -1.2war


2B Baez 26, ARB, 5.8war
RF Zobrist 38, $12.5, 3.5war
1B Rizzo 29, $12.3, 2.8war
C Contreras 27, Pre-ARB, 2.7war
LF Schwarber 26, ARB, 2.4war
3B Bryant 27, ARB, 2.1war
CF Heyward 29, $20.0m, 1.8war
SS Russell 25, ARB, 1.7war

OF Almora 25, Pre-ARB, 1.4war
UT Happ 24, Pre-ARB, 1.0war
UT Bote 26, Pre-ARB, 1.0war
IF LaStella 30, ARB, 0.2war
C Caratini 25, Pre-ARB, 0.0war

Exit Velocity/Launch Angle/Barell%/xwOBA

2015: 91.5 / 0.0 /  4.8 / 0.344
2016: 92.4 / 2.5 /  9.7 / 0.379
2017: 90.4 / 4.7 /  7.0 / 0.355
2018: 92.3 / 4.7 / 12.9 / 0.402

Yelich steadily increased his launch angle over the years, and always had great power. His average exit velocity took a step back last season, but he put both the power and the launch angle together this season and hit in a better ballpark to take advantage.

I wouldn’t worry if I were the Cubs. They will still contend for a few more years probably and even if they don’t win another WS getting one WS and a bunch of playoff appearances is a very good run for a core.

one WS is a good run for a core.

noted.

It’s not just winning a World Series. The acubs have had four straight playoff appearances as well. And let’s not pretend they are about to fall apart either, they won 95 games this year and still have a lot of talent in their prime. They will be a playoff favourite again next year. There a good article on fangraphs about this very subject today. Key sentence...’in the wildcard era, only three other franchises have pulled off what the Cubs accomplished’.

WC games, at least.

NLCS, World Series, NLCS, and WC game with 97, 103, 92, and 95 wins respectively is a damn good run, and it's not like they are done yet. I wouldn't consider them the prototypical team to follow (the current Yankees are more of the formula I'd like the Jays emulate), but undeniable that they have succeeded with it.

Pitching could be their achilles heel shortly though. And an increasing payroll.

so 1 WS, 3 playoffs, and a WC game are a "great" run, worth years of rebuilding.

but a back to back ALCS team wasn't worth making any real investments in.

got it.

Especially since all the Jays best hitters in 2015/16 were in their early 20's.

I think history has pretty conclusively shown that the Jays were right not to build around that core. The Cubs are not anywhere near the same situation the Jays were in. 11/12 top cubs offensive players will be under 30 next season. 4/6 top pitchers will be 30 or under. Of the 2016 Jays, of their top 10 hitters, 8 were going to be over 30 including 3 over 34. sure, same exact situation.

yep, management sure did make sure we proved it.



Zobrist 38, $12.5, 3.5war
Duensing 36, $3.5m, -1.2war
Lester 35, 27.5m, 2.6war
Hamels 35, 20.0m, 2.6war
Strop 34, $6.3m, 1.5war
Morrow 34, $9.0m, 1.0war
Kintzler 34, $10.0m, 0.2war
Cishek 33, $6.5m, 1.6war
Darvish 32, 20.0m, 0.1war
Quintana 30, $10.5m, 2.0war
LaStella 30, ARB, 0.2war
Smyly 30, $7.0m, 0.0war
Montgomery 29, ARB, 1.5war
Chatwood 29, $12.5m, -0.2war
Hendriks 28, ARB, 3.6war
Rizzo 29, $12.3, 2.8war
Heyward 29, $20.0m, 1.8war
Contreras 27, Pre-ARB, 2.7war
Bryant 27, ARB, 2.1war
Edwards 27, pre-ARB, 1.2war
Schwarber 26, ARB, 2.4war
Baez 26, ARB, 5.8war
Bote 26, Pre-ARB, 1.0war
Russell 25, ARB, 1.7war
Almora 25, Pre-ARB, 1.4war
Happ 24, Pre-ARB, 1.0war
Caratini 25, Pre-ARB, 0.0war

Pitching matters more than ever in the Postseason. However, Mangers should not trust their Pitchers. With all the off days built into the Playoffs, Starters should never pitch more than six.

A big chunk of Yelich's perceived improvement is simply the switch from a terrible hitters' park to a very friendly hitters' park. His road OPS this year is almost identical his road OPS in 2016 with the Marlins, and somewhat, but not dramatically, better than in 2017. On the other hand, his home OPS soared in Milwaukee.

His 2018 road OPS was about 50 points higher than the average road OPS of his last 2 seasons in Miami, whereas his overall OPS increased about 170 points above the average of those 2 years, so his personal improvement accounted for about 30% of the increase in his numbers, and the park switch accounted for about 70% of the increase in his numbers.

You could see that coming before the season, there's such a huge difference in the 2 parks, plus he was at an age where he could still be on the upswing. I grabbed Yelich in one of my pools because of that, and he helped that team win the pool.

Eh, I think it's perfectly apropos to discuss the Cubs' measure of success as the model rebuild as it applies to our Jays.

If the point is "what talent should the Jays add in the next year or two?", that's different.  If you want to argue that the Jays should sign a free agent pitcher in the next year or two to a Lester-like contract, that's fine to argue.  Personally I'd like another year to see how Pearson and Pardinho progress. 

Pulling for Cleveland vs Milwaukee. Ratings be damned.

Predictions: Milwaukee in 5, Atlanta in 5, Boston in 5, Houston in 5. 

Why is it taking so long to announce the P.T.B.N.L. in the Josh Donaldson trade? Or might we be receiving more than or other than Julian Merryweather depending on where Cleveland finishes?

I believe the deadline to announce a PTBNL is 6 months after the trade.
Ideally, Cleveland holds on until after the rule V draft.

The last time I heard it, Satchel only had 6 rules and it was fried meat that had to be avoided, mostly chicken in fact. Climate change? That went over me.

Red Meat and climate change

https://www.popsci.com/cow-farts-are-an-even-bigger-problem-than-we-thought

They Cubs fielded some putrid lineups and stocked up on high draft picks.
Then they spent heavily on free agency.
The Jays will no neither of those things.

The 2013 Cleveland Indians is probably the rebuild model you will get.

The Players Association has levied a protest against Atlanta's 9th pick claiming that the Braves did not offer the 40% of slot amount required to guarantee the pick.  It they prevail the Jays would get the 10th pick instead of the 11th. Atlanta was planning to go heavily under slot with that pick in order to sign a late round pick, but the player failed his physical and apparently very little was offered.

Julian Merryweather has been officially announced. Jon Berti has been DFA'd to make room.

Julian Merryweather's addition to the Jays is just the first of many moves they will make this Offseason.

I turned to MLB.com.  Saw score- Astros 1, Indians 0, 4th inning.  Mouthed to myself- Bregman solo homer probably.  Went to Gameday and confirmed.  I'm glad that I don't work in a corporate setting on days like this. 

Kluber wasn't getting the outside corner like back in '16.

"I'm glad that I don't work in a corporate setting on days like this."

I left my corporate setting at 3 = glad it was a slow day!

You win, mathesond.

has an MVP ever netted a team less than donaldson just got the jays?

Shouldn't we wait to see how Merryweather does before making that call?

Hindsight is always a terrible way to judge a trade. Merryweather and Donaldson had the value that they had on the date of the trade, not the value that will have 6 months, 1 year or 5 years from now.

I see what you mean. In that case, is there a readily available lsit of MVPs that have been traded? And, since Donaldson wasn't the reigning MVP, then hypothetically anyone who had at one time been MVP would be eligible for this discussion, correct? Such as Griffey getting traded to the White Sox for Nick Masset and Danny Richar?

(Just offering that up as an example. I have no recollection as to how those players were valued at the time of the trade)

I wasn't suggesting that the comment was correct:) I have no clue; just that trades should always be assessed (in terms of their logic) at the date of making them. Hindsight will always provide a winner and a loser.

Yelich had an incredible season.  Bichette had a good one for an elite prospect, but not quite as dazzling as last year.  Would anyone do the Bichette for Yelich package in hindsight?
Also, go Milwaukee.  I could also handle an LAD win, given how lovely and old school the stadium environment was when I visited a decade ago.  Oakland would be nice, I like Billy Beane.   Atlanta is the less racist of the racist teams and they do have AA, but I hope both ATL and CLE lose in embarrassing fashion. 

Josh Donaldson was of great interest to the Jays after his finish to 2017. That's what 2018 was all about. That's why they turned down offers on him (now, a big mistake). At the time of his trade, the Jays had zero interest in keeping him or resigning him and took the best offer.

Very, very few Pitchers are at 100%, 12 months after their Tommy John Surgery (09 March 2018). They are however as close as it is possible to be 100%, 24 months after Tommy John Surgery. Unless the Jays are desperate, they shouldn't need Julian Hernandez before early July.

Happ just gives up a three run home run, Oh gets hit around, Donaldson has an oh-fer. Ex Jays not setting the world on fire.

On the other hand Osuna closes out the game for the Astros. Pearce walked and scored on the home run.

Erik Kratz!

The Indians' lineup had 4 ex-Jays: Encarnacion, Donaldson, Cabrera and Gomes. They went 1 for 14.

Claiming that this was the trading of a MVP (or even MVP calibre player) pretty much removes all context. He was hurt all year, had one month of control left, and wasn't even healthy when he was traded. The Jays only got Merryweather back for a reason.

If you want to argue that the Jays should have traded Donaldson before the season or at the previous trade deadline, then that's a more reasonable argument/statement.

well, it is true that we traded a recent MVP for Juliam Merryweather.  What sucks is that the context has changed so fast ... this deal would have been unthinkable what, two years ago?  And now it is viewed as .... I dunno, prudent? 

Love seeing Eric Kratz come up big.  I remember when he was a late twentysomething backup catching org soldier for us.  Seems catcher is the position to play if you want to make the bigs for the first time in  your thirties. 

Well, lets check a few MVP's who were traded not long after...

2017: Giancarlo Stanton - traded after season for Jose Devers, Jorge Guzman and Starlin Castro - Castro was an All-Star at 2B, Guzman #87 on top 100, Devers a low A SS with no bat. So a lot better than Donaldson.

2013: Andrew McCutchen - traded in 2017/18 off-season for Bryan Reynolds (good bat in A+ age 22 at the time of trade never top 100 prospect), Kyle Crick (young reliever with control issues) and international bonus slot money. Better than Donaldson but not a 'wow'.

2011: Justin Verlander - oddity as a pitcher, got the Tigers Daz Cameron (20 year old in A ball, ranked #74 at one time but not at trade time), Franklin Perez (54th ranked prospect at time of trade) and Jake Rogers (catcher in A ball age 22 with decent bat). Not a bad haul.

So the 3 cases recently that I found didn't produce amazing results by any stretch but did get their old teams a bit more than a Tommy John'ed pitcher.

I hope they got more than we got for JD. They were all fully healthy at the time of trade and had at least a full year of control remaining.

JD may had value but it was complicated. FA & QO considerations.

Other than Pearce, a brutal night for the traded guys. Happ 5 R in 2 IP. Oh 2 R in 0.1 IP, JD 0-4.

For the least-valuable MVP deal, I'm voting for Josh Hamilton And Cash for PTBNL or (a lot less) Cash.

Every former MVP declines and retires eventually so the question doesn’t really make sense. I mean the Tigers would have to trade elite prospects to get rid of Cabrera’s contract right now, Joe Mauer and Pedroia would cost nothing etc...

If JD doesn't have a good series and Cleveland bows out, he's going to have a tough winter.

J Merryweather, too old to be a prospect?

Seems too suspect to be a prospect.

Julian Hernandez will be pitching for the Jays sometime in the 2nd half of 2019.

Amazing what phones do. Merryweather not Hernandez.

My 2019 Team starts with:
Randal Grichuk (RF/CF); the remaining OF is bland.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (SS/2B/3B) is a long term asset.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B) is the future of the Jays.
Aledmys Diaz (SS/2B/3B) is a long term asset.
Danny Jansen (C) is a long term asset.
Ryan Borucki (LHP) is a long term asset.
Ken Giles (Closer/RHP) exceptional, throws upper 90's.
Tim Mayza (LHP) exceptional, throws mid-/upper 90's.
Jose Fernandez (LHP) bigger power arm remaining.

Everyone else is presently supportive staff unless traded or no longer a Jay.

Too bad the Jays didn't get this Andrew Miller two years ago.

And so it was that later
As Andrew Miller told his tale
That his shoulder, at first just impinged
Turned a whiter shade of pale

Three series (Hou: 2 - Cle: 0; Mil: - 2 Col: 0; LAD: 2 - Atl: 0) are elimination games with a just a game to win in the next three. Milwaukee and Los Angeles are home for the deciding game while Houston visits Cleveland and good luck to
Houston.
The last series (NYY 1 Bos 0) still has some life left in it, as both Teams still think they can win. As long as the "impartial" Umpires agree.

Price gets 5 outs before he's lifted in the 2nd inning. Gives up 3 runs, 2 home runs, 2 walks, and no strike outs.

That's certainly not going to help his playoff/October reputation.

Boy does Price have a playoff problem.

He has appeared in 18 games so far in the post-season. His team has won 5 of those 18. He got a 4 inning hold once (10-3 game), a save in a 3-1 game, 2 wins in relief (one as a Jay where Gibbons set it up for him by pulling the starter with 4 2/3 IP, 3 IP 3 R/ER given up by Price; the other was a 2/3 IP appearance in extras, 2 outs, 1 walk). he also threw 2 1/3 IP in relief in a 4-2 win (the 2 runs were his).

If Boston doesn't make a comeback he again will be the loser. Thus a 5-13 record for teams with him pitching in them during the post-season. Ugh.

Usually, bvp stats are tiny sample sizes so irrelevant but Sanchez just owns Price. 7/14 with 6 HR. Yankees looks week a month ago but Tanaka and Severino seem to be coming on at the right time. Hope there’s at least one series that goes five games,

I wonder what it would take to get Jon Gray from the Rockies. Maybe something around Grichuk and taking on Bryan Shaw or Jake McGee? Gray imo is exactly type of player Jays should be targeting. Big arm, long term control mediocre results so far. Don’t know if he’ll be available and I’m sure many teams would be after him if he were, but didn’t even make post season roster and Rockies have big need at corner OF.

Two homeruns on backdoor cutters. Not a good pitch selection.
He walked the 8th and 9th hitter.
If you want to win, walk Judge, not the guys in front of him.

They Yankees could have traded Frazier for Cole last winter.

Maybe the best thing about Sunday mornings for baseball fans is Dave Laurila at FG with his Sunday Notes. In addition to a piece on ex-Jay Matt Boyd's hockey prowess, this puzzling item piqued my interest:

"In 1922, a total of 26 players received at least one vote in American League MVP balloting. None of them were named Ken Williams. The St. Louis Browns outfielder batted .332 and led the circuit in home runs (39), RBIs (155) and total bases (367). He also stole 37 bases, making him baseball’s first ever 30-30 player."

By WAR, he was 2nd among batters, (behind only teammate and eventual MVP George Sisler), and only 1 pitcher surpassed Williams. And he certainly had the usual counting stats.

The only things I could find, besides Sisler being on the same team, were that only 7 of his 39 HR's were hit on the road and his 37 SB's came with 20 CS's. But still...

Sisler hit .420 that year and stole 51 bases. He also led the league in triples with 18.
Yeah. The game has changed and we're not going to see these kind of numbers from a firstbaseman anytime soon.

No denying Sisler had the better season. Still doesn't explain 25 other players getting an MVP vote, but not Williams.

I think it does though. Writers were probably reluctant to vote for players on the same team.

I remember when Erik Kratz was a catcher in the Blue Jays minor leagues who seemed to have stalled at Double/Triple-A and not a postseason hitting machine.

Erik Kratz, the one who got away!

Meanwhile, Encarnacion/Donaldson/Gomes/Cabrera are a combined 4 for 26.

Aside: fielding Kipnis and Cabrera in your starting post-season outfield seems shameful.

Brewers looked a little tentative in game one but took total command thereafter. Is Milwaukee better than we think or is Colorado worse than we think?

On one hand I would like the Braves to do well because of the AA connection, but on the other hand there is the chop......

Brewers had a middle-of-the-pack 94 wRC+ offence in the 1st half, made moves to better their offence and had a top 5/6 107 wRC+ 2nd half.

Rockies had a bottom 5 87 wRC+ 1st half, made no real moves to shore up their offence, and had a bottom 5 87 wRC+ 2nd half.

Now to be fair, Yelich with his 220 wRC+ 2nd half was the biggest driving factor in the Brewers improvement.

But the Rockies offence was bad and management did nothing to shore it up. And it just continued to be bad in the postseason.

Erik Kratz wasn't much for a long while. First became backup Catcher at age 32. As a Jay (7 years) he wasn't more than 4th or 5th option. He got away from a lot of people. He's 38 and in his second Arb year.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kratzer01.shtml

Kratz was a very good hitter in the minors for a long time, and just never got the shot he deserved. In his prime years, from 2008 to 2012, his OPS numbers in the minors, almost all of which was in AAA, were .819, .807, .875, .838, .867. A catcher who can hit like that, and play not terrible defense certainly should be in the big leagues. He was unlucky to not have a decent run in mlb as at least a backup. Even though he has all of his AB's in mlb since he turned 30, he has hit 30 HR's in 804 mlb AB's. He's got legit big league power.

Checking Kratz record I see 3 years 75 days of service time before 2017, add in a full season this year plus a few days (maybe a month) the year before. That should work out to a decent pension plus full heath care which stateside is extremely valuable. Nice to see. Still in those 868 PA in the majors he has hit just 211/258/363 so not exactly setting the world on fire, of course those all came from age 30 up when most players are declining with just 42 PA before his age 32 season, traditionally the season most players hit the wall and end their career.

Dan ZIPS with our elegy

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/elegy-for-18-toronto-blue-jays/

Money quote from the ZIPS article: "I went back and looked at the best projections ZiPS has ever given a position player prospect. The previous highs were Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, and Ronald Acuña. Vladito’s projections are better than any of those."

That's the happy part of the article. The rest of the article is much less happy for the Jays.

I thought I'd go back and grade the moves the Jays made in 2018 for fun (not extremely minor ones).

Woodman for Diaz- A. Diaz is a major leaguer with some flexibility and with lots of team control. Woodman was already released.

Olivares and and Carkuff for Solarte- D- Don't think Olivares ever becomes anything but Solarte was awful and will be released this winter.

Greene and Leone for Grichuk- A. Always trade relievers when you can. Grichuk was maybe the Jays best player last year and Leone was mediocre and hurt and Greene is now a reliever.

Signed Granderson-B. Solid signing. Gave Jays value, was cheap, good clubhouse presence and then traded.

Signed Garcia- D- Made sense at the time and looked like good value but Garcia was awful.

Relief signings (Oh, Clippard, Breslow, Axford,Petricka, etc...) B+. The kind of signings they should make next year too. Don't spend a lot of money, get some decent pitching and flip at deadline.

Pearce for Espinal- B-. Pearce is doing well with Boston but considering Matt Adams, Duda, and Justin Bouer and others got zero return getting an actual prospect for Pearce was good business.

Trading relievers (Oh, Axford, Loup) B. Nothing great here but at least got some potentially interesting pieces.

Happ for Drury and Mckinny- C. Maybe McKinny turns out OK and maybe Drury turns things around but I would have preferred targeting players further away from the majors.

Osuna for Giles, Perez, and Paulino- A. Can't believe anyone traded for Osuna and actually gave up pretty fair value as well.

Donaldson for Merryweather- C. Don't like the return particularly but it's better than nothing. The error here was not trading Donaldson last offseason.

No one has commented on it, but Angel Hernandez had a train wreck of a game umpiring first base last night in the Yankees/Red Sox series having 4 of his calls reviewed and 3 reversed. To be fair, I didn't watch much of the game and only saw one of the reversed calls.It was close but not extremely so, and should have been made.
He's calling balls and strikes tonight so that should be even more interesting,

Angel Hernandez is a peach. Don't know of many professions where you can be that bad and have no worries about keeping your job.

Donaldson for Merryweather- C.

I wonder what the grade would be from a Cleveland viewpoint?

Merryweather might be something or not. But the division was already in the bag by the time he arrived, and in the few games he played that actually mattered, he did almost nothing. The process may have been a "B", due to his health concerns, but the results were "D" at best.

There was a Hardball Times story a few months back about contention windows. One thing stood out to me, and that is the Braves last teardown.

It stood out by the fact their contention window had seemingly not completely shut when Wren started the rebuild, as opposed to the others that tried to hang on as the Jays did this past off-season. In hindsight, it was probably the right move, but it also probably played a part in costing Wren his job.

Angel Hernandez is suing MLB for not promoting him. He alleges racism. Yesterday did not help his case.

Re being bad and keeping a job... politics, business, and trades are other careers where you can be bad and not worry.

Donaldson went .091 .167 .258 for Cleveland in the postseason.
I think the trade is at least  a C. Maybe a B.
They could not predict he was going to be injured all year and it would have been a nightmare to have to make a QO after playing maybe 2 weeks of bad baseball in September.
Going forward, it will all depends on what Merryweather turns into.

I don't see the bid deal with Angel Hernandez here.
He missed one call. They other were too close too call without the reviews.

The bid deal is with the inconsistent strike calling and that's all over the place.

The face of those Yankees fans who paid a fortune to see the Boston strangler eviscerate their team was special. First cycle in postseason history.

If you grade the Donaldson grade a B, aren't you pretty much saying that it was a good trade, regardless of the return? That seems overly generous to me - trading Donaldson for a player whose upside is what, Matt Camp?, doesn't seem any better than just holding on to him. I don't see the merit in trading him just to trade him.

The Jays were trading one month of an injured player. The only upside in keeping him would have been bringing him back the following year at ~$18M when he plays the same position as the team's best prospect who will be playing 3B everyday by late-April 2019. The comp pick/rejecting of the QO was looking less and less likely by the day.

I have no idea what type of prospect Merryweather is. The FO obviously likes him, but he's hurt and we don't know when or if he will come back strong after surgery. However, you have to consider what the Jays were trading to get that type of return. It wasn't a year of a healthy Donaldson. It was less than a month of an injured one.

The horse will be beaten for a while, but he should have been traded before the season. Since he wasn't, they had to take the next best path.

At least one talent evaluator has his upside as not Shawn Camp (I'm guessing that's who you meant - Matt Camp was a utility guy), but a mid-rotation starter.

He missed one call. They other were too close too call without the reviews.

Too close to call, maybe, when watching on TV. But he was 5 feet away and could presumably hear the two bangs (ball in glove, foot on bag).

He should be allowed to give a signal that says: "You know, I'm just guessing on these. I'm not even going to make a call. Just have someone look at the slo-mo and make a decision. While you're doing that, I'll be wordsmithing my lawsuit, because I'm a damn fine umpire."

Some of the very minor returns could end up being great surprises. Demi Orimoloye intrigues me. C Granderson trade.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=merryw000jul
Julian Merryweather was only ever drafted once, 5th Round of 2014 as a Senior signing. He turned out to be/developed into a much better Pitcher than was expected. Despite his struggles in 2017 in AAA, some of his stats/peripherals are decent. Was he trying to pitch through some discomfort, twinges, frustrations, the precursors of "the injury"? I think he did.

The Jays acquired a near-ready MLB Starting Pitcher - more their words than mine except I agree. Somewhere around the 10th of March is about one year after. He'll pitch in Spring Training; go on the 60-Day D.L.; then pitch and pitch and pitch some more. At some point he gets called up. Then we'll see what we have with him.

People keep repeating it, but I still don't believe it. Donaldson would have not been that likely to take 1 year at $18M and even in the case it does, that is still something with positive expected value. The presence of Vald doesn't change the fact that we lost a fair bit of expected value in the Donaldson trade going out. You need the piece coming back to have a lot of value, at least on par with the comp pick would have been.

At least one talent evaluator has his upside as not Shawn Camp

I liked Shawn Camp...

I watch the games and then's when I really figure out who I'm cheering for. This Boston-New York series is very confusing. I'm enjoying the crap out of watching whoever is losing lose but depressed that the other team is winning.

And I seem to really like Houston. For eight innings. And then they lose me.

So it's the National League champ for me. Whoever you are.

So it's the National League champ for me. Whoever you are.

And it'd be great if either of them were remotely likable.

How valuable would that comp pick have been?

Shawn Camp was drafted in the 16th round in 1997 as a Junior by San Diego and spent 7 years in the minors strictly as a Reliever. He has since earned a full MLB Pension and made over $7.4 Million (AKA independently wealthy).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/campsh01.shtml

Good years (age) comments:

2004/KCR: (28), decent.
2006/TBR: (30), decent.
2008/TOR: (32), very good.
2009/TOR: (33), very good.
2010/TOR: (34), very good.
2011/TOR: (35), decent.
2012/CHC: (36), very good.

This is a poor/lazy comp for Julian Hernandez. He was drafted in the 5th Round (#158) in 2014 by Cleveland as a Starter. He still could be a Blue Jay in 2019.

They managed to trade a player who technically could not be traded.
The pick could have been better, but several years behind.
The risk on Merryweather is relatively low.
Even when struggling in AAA he was striking out a batter per inning with a K/BB of 3. (over 5 in AA)

"Donaldson would have not been that likely to take 1 year at $18M and even in the case it does, that is still something with positive expected value. The presence of Vald doesn't change the fact that we lost a fair bit of expected value in the Donaldson trade going out. You need the piece coming back to have a lot of value, at least on par with the comp pick would have been."

Jays were not going to offer a QO. If Donaldson had stayed with Jays, I doubt he would have come back at all this year. Jays sat their veterans last month and Donaldson hurried back to get 60 PAs to get ready for playoffs. With the Jays, there was no rush. The Jays were either going to lose Donaldson for nothing or get a piece back. They chose to get a piece back. Those were the only 2 realistic options. The team had no interest in spending $19M to bring back Donaldson for a few months, block long-term players, in the hope he was good enough so they could flip him for some minor prospects. There was a mistake made with Donaldson and that was not trading him this past off-season. (And actually Merryweather has probably more value than the comp pick would likely have. The vast majority of players picked in that range don't make the majors.)

Not trading Donaldson was a mistake, but a defensible one. Only someone who subscribes to Branch Rickey'sMaxim that it's better to trade a player a year early than a year late would have made thàt move.

The Red Sox without Farrell are not so bad really.
I still like Pearce and Betts is amazing.

It could be a good series against Houston if Boston pitches around Price and Kimbrel.
It's hard to believe that Sale started 27 games and only won 12 despite a 2.11 ERA.

The idea that the Jays would have received a comp pick is literally nonsense.

By trading Donaldson they got something for nothing. There is ZERO chance they would offer a QO, because the risk of him accepting and turning into an overpaid dead weight is way too high. The Jays are already bending under the weight of the Rulo and Martin contracts. Risking another should be a fireable offense.

That trade was an A. Straight up. The same goes for the Granderson trade and nearly the Happ trade. (The Happ trade was actually better, but there was a downside in opportunity cost because there should have been multiple suitors for him.)

sigh. 'Tulo' obviously. Not 'Rulo'.

This site is not mobile friendly (and I'm not asking it to be). I find that ANY typing in the platform is autocorrected by the site not the phone's system because it only happens at this Web site. For instance, the apostrophe or capital W just changed from my previous sentence.

Mods, is there absolutely no spell check option that can be turned off?

An article about the market for 1B that shows why the Jays should trade Justin Smoak this offseason.

This is my take, some fact, some speculation.

The chances of JD accepting the QO were zero. If something catastrophic happened to JD in the last month, there would have been no QO, a total loss. If he played enough and well enough to merit a QO, JD was leaving.

Whatever bridges he had with the Jays organization were burned. He hinted, without getting into specifics, he was not happy whatsoever with the way his injury was handled last year. Hence his own program in the offseason, not the Jays.

If the Jays hadn't traded him, the last month would have had a guy playing who could have turned into a clubhouse cancer at the same time all these young kids were around.

This also would have forced Gibby to give him as much playing time as possible to keep him as satisfied as possible. At the time of the trade, Solarte and Drury were the only MI's unavailable; every inning JD played was one less one of the other players auditioning for next year would play.

Add in the fact the projected value of a pick in the 75-80 range probably wouldn't be much, if any, better than what the Jays got from Cleveland. It was a sad ending to JD's time here, but by Aug 31, the trade was the best outcome for both parties.

An article about the market for 1B that shows why the Jays should trade Justin Smoak this offseason.

Link?

Donaldson may have mentally moved on from the organization, but a guaranteed 1/18 versus going on the market and hoping for a similar or better deal would have been a big risk on his part, especially in a market that discriminates on players in his age bracket. The Jays clearly did not want him back, so the QO was likely not something they even wanted to offer, but I think there was a chance Donaldson accepted if it was offered. It really depends on what his perception is/was of his free agent value. If he felt/knew he could get the same or more elsewhere, then sure he would have declined it.

Either way, it was making the best out of a bad situation. Once it got to August 31 and he was still hurt, there was really no other alternative that would have worked out for the team.

Oops. Sorry. I meant to link it:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/2018-19-market-snapshot-first-base.html

If Merryweather ends up as a mid-rotation starter then I'd agree that the deal was great. I don't expect that to happen though, and the best option, by far, would have been to offer him the QO. Him playing for the team next year is a good thing, not a bad thing. A good manager would figure out how to get everyone playing time.

That said, this has probably been litigated enough, and hopefully I'm wrong and the Jays got a mid rotation starter in the deal.

The Donaldson trade is going to be rehashed for a long time to come. What we all need to remember is even if you got a handful of quality prospects the odds are they won't amount to much and a sandwich draft pick is even lower odds.

Remember Halladay? Traded for Travis d'Arnaud, Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor. d'Arnaud has 2.1 WAR lifetime and is a free agent after next season (assuming he isn't demoted for most of the season), Drabek has -0.1 WAR - he threw 2 innings in the Mexican league and gave up 11 runs (!!!). Taylor has -0.8 WAR and hasn't played as a pro since 2014. Taylor was immediately traded by the Jays to get Brett Wallace who has -0.6 WAR lifetime and last played in 2016. Wallace was later traded for Anthony Gose who has 1.8 WAR lifetime and last year was in A+/AA hitting for a 568 OPS after a failed attempt to reach as a pitcher (5.89 ERA in minors 7.6 BB/9 vs 9.3 K/9). Gose was traded for Devon Travis who has 6.5 WAR lifetime but just 0.6 last year.

That was a healthy Cy Young quality pitcher who was traded at age 32 after his 4th straight year getting Cy votes. Net gain was only good thanks to the Jays doing multiple post-trade trades and ending up with Travis who they might release now.

It is very hard to get value in a trade when you are trading a star who is healthy, let along an unhealthy one.

Draft pick?

No better than pick #32, more likely much lower, but for sake of arguement lets go with 32. 54 picked all time, 28 reached the majors, 10 with negative WAR (ie: no point to them), 4 more under 2 WAR (not much value), 3 more under 5 (some value, but less than Travis), 4 more under 10 (Ricky Romero level so useful), 4 more in the 10-15 range (nice, but hardly a wow), and 2 in the 20's (Dave Magadan 1983, Lee Lacy 1969). Hmmm, not a ton of value there is there?

What about 33? none over 20.
34? Mark Gubicza in 1981 (37), Todd Frazier in 2007 (24), only 2 more over 10.
35? Johnny Damon in 1992 (56), Mark Langston in 1981 (50), Aaron Rowand 1998 (21). Rest sub 10.

I think the point is made. Yeah, you COULD get lucky and get a Johnny Damon or Langston but you are far, far, far more likely to get a guy who never reaches like Evan Frederickson.

Perfect world - Donaldson is healthy and signs for 4 more years and stays at 3B while Vlad goes to 1B or something. Real world he isn't healthy and might not be again.

The number I've heard floated for JD is around 2/40.

Add in the fact players almost to a man overvalue themselves. That's why teams were offering QO's to players who weren't worth close to the offer. And I don't think JD has any self-confidence issues.

The draft pick would have been after comp round B, in the 75-80 range.

Funny someone derisively mentioned Shawn Camp. He was worth 2.8 bWAR to the Jays in his 4 years.

A pick in the 75-80 range has been worth an average of 1-2 bWAR in the 6 years of team control. That's a pretty low bar for Merryweather.

rpriske - why do you think the Jays are already bending under the weight of the Tulo and Martin contracts? I think the Jays are going to have difficulty finding players to spend money on to give them anything more than about a $100 million payroll. The Jays have zero payroll issues for 2019 and wouldn't have had payroll issues if JD had accepted a QO. There are reasonable and different perspectives on whether it would have made sense to make a QO but payroll flexibility isn't part of that.

"Him playing for the team next year is a good thing, not a bad thing."

It's not good or bad. It's unnecessary. If the Jays got Yadier Molina for a 1/$20M contract, should they take it? Just because something might be good value on paper, doesn't mean in makes sense for the team. The Jays don't need Donaldson for 2019, Donaldson is not part of the future, and Donaldson was extremely unlikely to ever be worth much in prospects. The reality is the Jays would be spending $19M for a player they don't need, playing the same position as their best prospect ever, to hope you can flip him for a Brett Phillips type prospect.

" I think the Jays are going to have difficulty finding players to spend money on to give them anything more than about a $100 million payroll."

This is nonsensical. They are going to CHOOSE to not spend big (and I am not saying they are wrong about that, considering the position they are in).

If they had all the room in the budget and didn't have to keep paying Tulo and Martin they might be able to actually build a pitching staff worthy of a contending team.

As it is they are going to go and try to find bargains and hope they get more Estradas and less Garcias. If they had the money they could aim a lot higher than that. (Last year they could have and SHOULD have gone after JD Martinez. This year pitching is more important.)

BUT, I am not calling down either the Tulo trade or Martin signing. They always knew they would be overpaid at the end. That was the cost of the deals. But you can only carry so many passengers. The reality is, as much as people (including me) bash Kendrys, he is more valuable to the Jays right now than either Tulo or Martin.

Morales is more valuable than Martin?  Why do you think that?

Why wouldn't you think that?

Kendrys Morales was an above average hitter this year. Barely. Martin was a horrid hitter this year. He makes up for it by his usability as a catcher... but he shouldn't be catching for the Jays as it blocks players who should be playing instead.

So Martin is, what? A replacement level utility player? I'm not even sure he is that.

I have great respect for the player Russell Martin WAS, but he is well past his prime. If he didn't have more time on his contract he would probably get released.

Morales would as well, but at least he is not a negative in the lineup. He can still hit a bit.

(Though if they could, I would absolutely support trading him... along with Travis, Pillar, and Smoak - though it Smoak's case they should get a decent return to do so.)

Not which one HAS BEEN a more valuable player.

Which one is more valuable to the Jays NOW.

There is no question the answer to that first question is Russell Martin. I am saying the answer to the second question is Kendrys Morales.

Not which one HAS BEEN a more valuable player.

But YOU were the one to bring up last years hitting stats.

Mike's right, you're wrong. Jays most likely couldn't give Morales away even if they ate all his salary - he's just just a roster clogger.

Martin still has attributes teams want and need. Not worth the money he's paid, but he could play for a lot of teams. Look at the Red Sox catchers, for instance. 2 other playoff teams, A's and Rockies, gave more PA's to worse hitting catchers than the Jays gave Martin.

If you are trying to answer who is more valuable to the Blue Jays in the future, surely the key thing is who can make a contribution towards helping them win.  The only contribution that Morales can make is (perhaps) being a mentor to Gurriel Jr.  Martin can assist in the development of young pitchers and catchers.  Which one hits for a 90 wRC+ and which one hits for a 102 wRC+ in 2019 has nothing to do with it, in my view. 

Now THAT is a legit argument.

I mean, I don't AGREE with you, but that part is a matter of opinion. :)

Didn't see Hyperbole's comments first...


...are you saying that the season that just ended has no reflection of the hitter they are likely to be going forward? That is just silly.

The hitter they were two years or three years ago at this point in their careers has virtually no bearing on who they are at this point. That is what I was referring to about who WAS most valuable. But right now Martin is a bad hitter with no position on the team. Morales is an average hitter with a fairly unimportant position. That isn't much, but it is better than Martin.

And saying that Russell Martin should be in demand by other teams... well, it never pays to underestimate bad decision making by other teams. Vernon Wells got traded, after all.

Well, I certainly learned something today.

Living up to your screen name, hypobole!

What would Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman bring back in a Trade? Ideally a comparable Starter, younger, cheaper, with more term. A one-for-one Trade might not be available or even acceptable, but a bigger Trade might be possible. But then again who needs what?

The Jays have too many Catchers, too many Outfielders, too many Infielders, all MLB-Ready. The Jays need Pitching and Pitching upgrades, more Pitching and Pitching upgrades, much, much more. It should be possible to get things done.

The Jays need to find the equivalent of Stroman and Sanchez (youngish, pre FA, with some upside) on other teams, not trade away their own.

The Jays need to find the equivalent of Stroman and Sanchez (youngish, pre FA, with some upside) on other teams, not trade away their own.

Think about what you said.
Adding another Sanchez or Stroman will cost the Jays at the minimum, a good portion of their Top 5 Prospects. Offering any less gets laughed at.
Upgrading Sanchez and Stroman means trading both, getting younger, cheaper, better. It will not cost Top 5, but it could/will cost a something more.

How much value do Sanchez and Stroman have? Sanchez had severe blister problems in 2017, in all likelihood from the new baseball. Stroman as well, though not as severe in 2017.

Sanchez seems to have changed something since to prevent his blisters - grip or release? But he's not been good either. Add in the new ball caused a lot of changes in swing paths, negating the value of sinkers, which was his best pitch.

Now the successful pitchers are attacking these hitters with top of the zone 4 seamers. Can Sanchez do this? Or does he just hope hitters return to flatter swings to counteract the new pitching style?

Stroman is still having blister issues and they don't seem to be going away. Does he have short term value if he can't stop this issue?

Aaron Sanchez will be 27 on July 1st and has two years remaining on his contract. He's been in the Majors for more than four years and we still aren't sure what he is or will be. Even he is unsure of what he is, or will be. There still is big upside. I think he still has good enough value in a small package to bring back an upgrade.

Marcus Stroman will be 28 on May 1st and has two years remaining on his contract. He's been in the Majors for more than four years and he's lately becoming less effective each year. That raises questions on how good he'll be going forward. I think he'll still be an effective Mid-Rotation Starter. That has value, perhaps enough to bring back an upgrade, but might need a slightly bigger package.

The problem is, we need both to be Front-Of-The-Rotation Starters. We don't think they can still be such, but someone might think differently. If the Jays can't get a #1/#1A Starter, this Season needs everything to go right.
Options: Sanchez, Borucki, Stroman, ???, ???; or, New Guy, Borucki, Sanchez, Stroman, ???.

The ball caused the blisters for Sanchez in 2017. 2018 was mixed, not much blister. The jammed finger issue. In 2018 compensating somehow for the blister had a bad effect probably. 2019 could be bad, in which case we lost a lot of our pre FA value.


Stroman pitched 200 innings in both 2016 and 2017. He does not back down from a challenge. He made it back in 2015 for example. This year 2018, he had shoulder issues in ST but still played in the 1st series or the year. His blister was seen by a few media people and they knew it could not possibly heal in time for the next start he was going to make. They mentioned that. Sure enough the finger started bleeding and his pitching suffered. That is just his competitive nature.

Usually you're careful about trading position players for relievers, but given the surplus the Jays have, that's probably what they should be doing.
I fondly remember the Expos trading a good 2B for a reliever named Pedro Martinez.

Who was the 2B?

Delino DeShields. You may recognize the name.

Delino Deshields

I remember hating that trade at the time - you don't trade an all-star position player for a reliever. Once Pedro was starting though I felt better, then he became PEDRO and it was a woohoo, then he left. Sigh.

Agreed that the Jays should be looking for undervalued youngish SP's with a few years of control left (Jon Gray?) rather than selling low on Stroman and Sanchez. Teams are reluctant to trade prospects now, so finding an undervalued player who another team may have soured on for whatever reason is a much better path. Grichuk worked out in 2018 and still has potential to improve next year. Basically look for a SP equivalent of that, if one exists.

The time to trade Stroman and Sanchez is July 2019 assuming both are performing well/reasonably well. Both are coming off injury shortened seasons so makes no sense to trade them now unless another team is willing to pay for pre-2018 performance in terms of prospects (possible with Stroman perhaps, but hard to say right now).

I suspect the Jays will be looking for former high draft picks or guys who used to be top 100 prospects who have fallen on hard times (wildness, bad luck, stuck behind better players). Much like last winter with...

J.B. Woodman (released) for Aledmys Diaz (December 1st) - worked well

Jared Carkuff (now in indy ball) and Edward Olivares (A+, 277/321/429 at age 22 in CF so still a prospect) for Yangervis Solarte (didn't work well, but made sense) on January 6th.

Conner Greene (AA/AAA ERA just over 4, 6.4 BB/9 7.1 K/9 so no better than 'meh') and Dominic Leone (24 IP in relief plus 10 IP in AAA) to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Randal Grichuk on January 19th. Sweet!

PTBNL for Sam Gaviglio. Has yet to be named according to BR.

Hard to complain about any of those. Only the Solarte deal looks like less than a steal and that is just because he sucked in the 2nd half. If only the Jays traded him while hot eh? :)

I fully expect the Jays to dumpster dive again this winter. Hopefully with the same results. It isn't easy as you need the other club to be sick of the player but for him to still have talent.

An interesting idea - since the Jays will likely shift payroll to around the $100 mil mark based on various estimates I've seen should they go out and do some trades that add massive payroll but also come with kids? Ala the old Francisco Liriano trades. Both of his trades, first coming here, then leaving - involved the Jays eating payroll to add prospects. Harold Ramirez, Reese McGwire, and Teoscar Hernandez were all added thanks to those two trades.

Trying to find someone who would fit...
I figure the Giants will be trying to shed salary after their bad year...
Johnny Cueto - 3 years at $65 mil plus option ($22 mil) or $5 mil buyout. Very expensive but just 9 starts and on a rebuild whats the point? Big risk of total flop but if the Jays could get a few really good prospects and SF pays some of the salary it could work. This would be a tough one.

Miami - when aren't they dumping?
Wei-Yin Chen - $42 mil next 2 years, $16 mil vesting for 2021. So his salary would clear before contending unless he is effective. Not a bad risk. A LHP who used to pitch in Baltimore so he can handle the AL East. Could work but I'd demand 2 good prospects at least while sending back spare parts we don't need.

Stroman I can definitely see bouncing back. He was a very good pitcher every year he's been healthy. Still, plenty of worrying signs this year. Sanchez? No idea who he is. He had one very good year and has been hurt a lot. Sanchez and Stroman have some of the same issue. It's very hard to be a top starter when you don't K guys at a high rate. It's even harder in the AL East. Sanchez is 7.05 and Stroman 7.25 per 9 innings in their careers. If you look at pitchers with over 150 IP this year, only 4 of the top 50 pitchers have K rates under Stroman's. None in the AL East. I doubt either pitcher is around in the next Jays window. I wouldn't trade them now unless someone is giving you close to full value for Stroman (Or maybe a team like San Diego or Atlanta who have tons of prospects and want to consolidate will actually overpay slightly).

A problem with SF is their lack of top prospects.  No to Cueto.

Now see, the Blue Jays rebuild is essentially over. They are not trading their stars for prospects. What they have to trade are not stars and they don't have room for more middling prospects. At some point, they'll look to complement through free agency, but now is not the time. Stroman and Sanchez have little value now and should be re-evaluated at the next deadline. What they have to do now is trade their surplus to reduce the roster.
Either 2 for 1, 3 for 2 or just 1 guy for international money.

"They are not trading their stars for prospects."

scottt, who are these stars?

No stars,  no top prospects coming back.

Sorry, you're right. I need a coffee.

I think Chen is an interesting idea. He wasn't completely horrible last year as he worked back from injury. That said, given our/the Jays' surplus in a couple of areas - notably middle infield - a swap (plus or minus) of Chen for Tulo (assuming health) fills a hole on both sides. Same for Martin should the Fish finally deal Realmuto.

Of course, Tulo would have to agree to waive his NTC in order to go to Miami...I suspect he has little interest in playing for the Marlins.

Starting Jays SS Tulo may not want to play for the Marlins, but how about Jays backup MI Tulo?

There really doesn't seem to be a challenger for the starting SS spot in Miami the next 2 years.

Tulo will never play for Miami. Jeter hates his guts because Cashman always told him that Tulo was a better SS than him during contract negotiations. There's articles about it and they're quite amusing to read how Jeter was told he wasn't the best SS in the game by his own team.

Miami may have a better shot at contention next year than the Jays.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/08/20/new-york-yankees-brian-cashman-derek-jeter-tulowitzki

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/new-york-yankees-derek-jeter-brian-cashman-rather-have-tulowitzki-082015%3famp=true

Nothing saying Jeter hates Tulo. The fued is, or was, with Cashman. And didn't seem to deter Jeets from trading with the Yankees last year.

The Jays are rebuilding too so Tulo's reluctance to go to Miami wouldn't be related to quality of team. If he sees an easier path to playing everyday at SS (and off turf), then he might be more open to it now than he would have been two years ago when the Jays were coming off a playoff appearance.

Regardless, if the Jays want to trade Tulo, then that's the type of deal it would have to be. Bad contract for bad contract.

Actually Tulo has long admired Jeter. They've worked together since the Cashman thing. Jeter was Tulo's boyhood idol, which is why he wears #2.

I think there's an obvious highly paid player who is not a zero, but seriously overpaid, and that his team might throw in a good prospect if you took on his salary - David Price

Price would make more sense for a team trying to contend now rather than 2 years down the road.

Well your get Price to get the prospects, not for Price. (not saying Toronto should do that, just that he's an example of the type of player who might come with prospects)

Not saying the Jays should target Price, but if they could get him for Tulo you do it in a snap deal.

Price has $127M left on his deal. Tulo has $38M. The Jays would turn that deal down, entirely due to the money involved.

Martin and Morales ($32M) are done after 2019 and then Tulo done after 2020. I doubt we will see the team acquire any contract signed for more than two years (unless the player is controllable through arbitration like Grichuk was). Those three contracts are gone after 2020, and all of Stroman, Sanchez, Grichuk, Pillar, and Giles are free agents after 2020 as well. Most of the latter will likely be traded some time between this winter and next trade deadline (Grichuk is the only one I could see staying), so I don't expect the team to want to have an expensive deal attached to anyone over 30 by then.

If Giles has another Osuna-like season next year(their career numbers are very close), I think the Jays will try to sign him to a 2 year deal for 2020/2021, which I think would be a good idea.

The Giants aren't going to be trading off prospects for somebody to take Cueto. They're a big budget team, and they have a lot of big salary guys locked in until 2021. Cueto will be back from his surgery for the 2020 and 2021 seasons when the Giants still could be contenders. Pence, McCutcheon and Cain are off the books for 2019, so the payroll has lots of room. Including Bumgarner's $12 million option, they're at about $135 million plus all the cheap guys.

Here is an interesting article on how the Jays are now developing prospects:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-plan-get-highly-rated-farm-system/

Our commitments are going down and fitting Tulo shouldn't be a problem until there is a better SS on this team defensively and offensively. Say what you will about counting stats, defensive ratings and boyhood idols - Jays personnel and coaches will probably pick a healthy Tulo over Gurriel, Diaz, Solarte or Bichette for next year to lead the team and solidify the position. If he's not healthy then there isn't anything to discuss - he won't play so it's a non issue and you eat the loss.

And 'my garbage for your garbage' deals probably won't expedite the winning in Toronto especially when you're trading away the better off field vet for a guy like Chen.

Can't wait for next season to see the surplus value the Jays roll out at SS if it's not Tulo.

I'm looking at a guy like Chen as filler while hoping to get a prospect with him to give someone else who is broke salary relief. Right now Miami has just $47 mil committed for next year (via Cot's) and $23 for 2020. Most of that is Chen. Starlin Castro (2B) eats up $12 mil next year, and Martin Prado $15 mil. Then comes arbitration guys who they could release if they don't like the salary. Jeter's team has done a good job cleaning out the pay left behind but will they be any good?

ChiSox lost 100+ but have no $10+ mil players for 2019/2020.

The Royals lost 100+ also, traditionally cheap but had a $122 mil payroll in 2018. Alex Gordon makes $20 mil next year and $4 mil or $23 (mutual option) for 2020. Ian Kennedy makes $16.5 both in 2019 and 2020. Salvador Perez (CA) makes $11 then $14 then $14 over the next 3 years. Those guys are all ones the Royals would happily dump I'm sure. Gordon could be useful in LF (great defense, meh offense which would be a change), Kennedy is a starting pitcher who has had long ball problems (probably bad in Toronto) but at least could fill a role if the Jays could get something useful with him. Perez is useless to the Jays but will be a solid catcher for someone if the Royals dump him.

Ken Giles had a good, possibly even a very good Season this past year. He had an excellent Season in 2017, which was a lot better than this past one. Ideally this is the time to think long term with him, a three year, $24.0-$25.0 Million ($6.0-$6.5; $8.0-$8.5; $10.0 Million) contract offer should be fare. If longer, try option first.

He made $4.6 Million in 2018. He should get around $7.0 Million, possibly more in Arbitration in 2019, just for his September Stats alone. I can easily see a $10.0-$11.0 Million or more awarded for 2020. Waiting another year might significantly drive the prices higher than the Jays would like to pay.

Guerrero Jr. is 6 for 9 with 4 doubles and a walk after 2 AFL games. Crazy.

Chen had an ERA of 4.8 which isn't good in the NL. He walked too many and only averaged 5 innings per starts.

It looks like the Yankees will go after Corbin who will only be 29.
Perhaps give CC another go since they love his attitude and those one year deals are handy.
I'm expecting them to move Gray who has one year of arbitration left.
Gray's 4.9 ERA in the AL isn't quite as bad as Chen's.
It's going to be interesting to see what the price for 36 year old Happ will be.
Of course, the coaching staff needs to be shorted out first.

The game is changing quite a bit. i don't think we will see a payroll over 125 million in Toronto ever again. I predict they will be below 115 and close to 100 million when they're contending.

There are not a lot of free agents to sign in the future and the game is going younger. I don't see them resigning Sanchez or Stroman when they can be traded for alternative assets not needing to be paid as much.

Look at the available free agents in 2020. Is there anybody you would want the Jays to sign that isn't going to be on the wrong side of 30?

Gerrit Cole yes
Drew Smyly Possibly if he bounces back
Michael Sacha meh
Madison Bumgarner sure
Zack Wheeler - meh

Bogaert's - don't need
Schoop - don't need
Arenado - don't need

I don't think the front office is planning to augment the team from free agency the way the Cubs did with Zobrist, Lester, Hayward, etc.

They will likely trade for players like Quintana and maybe sign players like Puig or Castellanos max.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2020/

I'd be happy to carry Martin, Tulo, Morales or any other great vet (OK maybe not Morales). My issue is not with those players but with the manager that doesn't know how to properly utilize them even if it means benching them. This is a general comment and not a critique of Gibby who started shifting Martin around this season (finally) and Tulo who obviously I think will be a top 5-10 shortstop next year.

" I don't think we will see a payroll over 125 million in Totonto ever again."

What is this based on? Major league salaries in general going down? The team never contending again and Rogers refusing to carry a large payroll? The front office trading any player who develops into a star before he commands big bucks like Tampa does?

Toronto finished 13th in attendance this year with 2.35 million, almost exactly twice as much as Tampa who had a much better team, which was very good considering their record, the team they fielded ( possibly one of the most boring in recent memory ), and the overall drop in MLB attendance in general. I would expect that attendance at Jays games won't drop that much next year with the arrival of Vlad Jr. and emergence of other young players.

History has shown that if a winning team is fielded the fans will come out in large numbers to support them, and it has also shown that Rogers will back a large payroll for a playoff team. The only was I see the payroll being below 125 million is if the team continues to wallow in mediocrity for years, and with the depth of young talent at the major and minor league level, I don't think that's going to happen.

Our speculations and also the media's are all over the place. So it is sort of interesting.
Initial FO meetings are probably done. We don't really know many details of Atkins and the FO's plans. The manager is changing and most likely parts of the coaching staff. I expect a lot of ink on this topic.
Naturally player moves will be made. Example Int'l Fernando Chacon 16 year old RHP.
R Urena is the youngest on the 40 man roster. That probably changes when additions are made for rule 5 protection. And of course when Vlad gets added.

Next years ML roster will have Martin, Tulo, Morales, Solarte, Smoak, Pillar and Tepera who are over 30. So a lot of playing time for the kids.

We don't know what FAs have been targeted. Any good FA reliever like a Wade Davis type will only sign for high $ and term. K Giles is probably as good and cheaper. But the new guy could be a valuable trade deadline piece. I don't see this happening. No Grandersons either to take ABs away from kids and then trade. If still here we have vets like Morales, Pillar, Smoak, Solarte and Tepera to trade at the deadline.

We cannot be sure of all the future core pieces. 2 very big pieces are Stroman and Sanchez. Both have to reestablish themselves and sign extensions. IMO crucial unknowns. K Giles too maybe. Expensive for sure.

I agree with ISLAND BOY that if the team wins the fans will come out. Payroll will not matter to the fans but would matter to ownership.
If we don't sign or acquire bad contracts, that would be a big positive for the team. So we need good players that are not hurting payroll (affordable), when we are winning. There are guidelines for this. 1) No D Price or G Stanton. 2) C Yelich has helped the Brewers but the prospect capital was high. 3) If Stroman for example wins the Cy Young or Vlad the MVP, don't sign them because they will be expensive. We may lose the following year but we have good control of payroll. 4) Be creative and anticipate future payroll numbers.

The trick is to keep payroll space for 2021-2025 (the likely window of opportunity). If Vlad works out, if Bo works out, if other kids emerge as well then it'll be a matter of getting a few extra parts ala the mid 80's teams going nuts for closers (Lamp, Lavelle, Caudill, then getting lucky with Henke) and the 92 team going for Jack Morris (Record contract for a pitcher on a per year basis at the time) and Dave Winfield, then Paul Molitor the following winter to replace Winfield.

I advocate using the money the Jays have in reserve right now to trade for prospects via eating other teams dead contracts - in theory teams like the Rays should be good partners for that, plus unlike the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers the Jays have no fear or reaching the salary penalty level. If they can get more international free agent money so they can sign more of the best ones out there they should try to get it too. If there is a top manager out there who wants a fortune to come then give it to him. Same with coaches.

This article on the Brewers, which highlights how good a pickup Cain and others was, is interesting when it notes which teams had the best off season from 2017 to 2018. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-brewers-are-the-rare-team-to-win-the-offseason-and-the-actual-season/

The Brewers were the far and away champs. But the Jays were 5th best team referenced with +3.95 net WAR in off season moves.

There is very little appealing on the Free Agent Starter list. What there is of it might end up ridiculously priced.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html
I'd prefer the Jays go after a #1 Starter they can have for at least four years. I'd easily trade Aaron Sanchez if necessary to get it done. You can't have enough great Pitching, either by upgrading or just adding one more. Younger, better, cheaper.

Randal Grichuk RHB 27: .249 .301, .502, 424 AB, 25 HR, 61 RBI, 3 SB, 2.2 WAR.
Bryce Harper, LHB, 26: .249 .393, .496, 550 AB, 34 HR, 100 RBI, 13 SB, 1.3 WAR.
Not as big a difference as I thought.
Randal Grichuk should/could/will be better in his second full year with Toronto.
Bryce Harper has at least 5 great years remaining and some very good. He will be a huge overpay.

Quite the difference between BbRef 1.3 WAR and FG 3.5 WAR for Harper. They both agree his defence was Teoscar level awful.

The reason I think payrolls won't go above 125$ million is outlined in the same post. Contracts to players over 30 are unlikely to happen with this front office in my opinion.

Did you look at the future free agent lists I posted from Cotts? Who do you see the Jays signing to boost payroll up? Without Tulo or Martin you're basically relying on extensions to guys like Sanchez, Stroman and Giles to get payroll up and that is very questionable with their records previously. If the front office signs Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, Pearson, Smith, Giles, Stroman, Sanchez, Jansen, Reid Foley, Borucki...it would be unlikely to go past $125 and that's assuming all those guys are resigned to long term deals before they are free agents in 6-8 years.

Brandon Drury could be a good player. 1000+ ML ABs. He needs to get healthy by ST. But where will he play if Vlad is at 3B?
Many other good power hitters. A lot should get sorted out next year. Ross Atkins said as much. The kids are going to play and show what they can do.
As usual health will be a major factor. But for all teams.

Pitching is so important. Sanchez and Stroman's future earning power depends on their health and performance. Obviously. They know and will do their best.

The Blue Jays were about $162 Million at the start of last year and about $155 Million at the end of the year. Next year they can be about $115 Million, without signing/acquiring anyone not inhouse. I believe the Jays can spend whatever they need to fill out their Team for next year. The following year will be about $40.0 million less due to expiring contracts.

Went to see the AFL game in Surprise today. Will post some observation in this thread since the MLU one is a little stale. Did you know that Stubby Clapp is actually a little stubby? Was really looking forward to seeing VGJ but the best player on the field today was Nate Pearson. He sat at about 97-98 with his fastball but touched 100. His curveball was upper 70s and appeared to be devastating when combined with the fastball. He threw Connor Marabella two curveballs, buckling his knees on each, and then blew a high 90s fastball by him. Pearson was visibly disappointed to come out after 31/3 innings. He did go deep into quite a few counts, but if he improves his command, particularly with his fastball, he should be close to the majors.

Thanks krose.

Thanks, krose, hope you're having a great time. Sounds great that Pearson seems to be both healthy and nasty.
Noticed Pearson had thrown 62 pitches when he came out, I think low/mid 60's is pretty well all they let anyone throw - most starters seem to be ending up in the 50's.

McLelland seemed to have a nice line as well. 2 clean innings with 2 K's. Apparently one of the 3 Jays prospects who've hit 100 this year, along with Pearson and Murphy.

Boston did well in the offseason because of Martinez and nobody else had the money to sign him.
The Yankees did OK with Stanton (similar situation), but Drury turned out as bad for them than Solarte for Toronto. However they were able to use Drury to get Happ.

Jays did well with Grichuk, Diaz, Oh, poorly with Solarte and Garcia, so, it's still a mixed bag.
Technically, Clippard was a miss, because they couldn't get anything for him.

At this point, Ryan Braun is equivalent to Aledmys Diaz at the plate. The guy to watch besides Yelich is Lorenzo Cain.

Good news all the way around. It is great of course for Pearson to come back strong.  VGJ did have 3 hits for the 3rd straight game also, and Jackson McLelland threw 2 perfect innings with 2 Ks.

VGJ has two bloop singles. Twice he was thrown out trying to stretch. His other hit was a jam shot, weak liner into center field. The Desert Dogs were threatening in the ninth. The last out was made by Guerrero when he short hopped the first baseman on an easy ground ball. Not his best day in spite of the stats.

Jackson McClelland looked very good. He sat at about 97 but hit 99. He also appears to have some command issues. He hides the ball well in his windup. Shawn Morimando had a good day too. He is a soft tossing lefty. His fastball sits about 89 and he has an excellent mid 70s curve.

Sounds like the Jays may have to leave Vlad in Buffalo for a few weeks to work on his baserunning and defence.

I did read your whole comment, dalimon and your points are valid for the next few years but you did say that payrolls wouldn't go over 125 million ever again so that is a far-reaching statement.
Vlad Jr. will be coming into the league at a much younger age than many prospects and will qualify for big bucks at a younger age if his career evolves like we think it will. That will be true of numerous other prospects eventually,too. That's why I mentioned Tampa Bay and their trading off of costly players for prospects. Do you see that happening to the Jays as the reason that the payroll will never eclipse the 125 mark ?

I may be overly optimistic, but I see a good, young team emerging in the next several years, one that may be bolstered by a power arm or power bat through free agency or trades. The next few years will definitely see a low payroll, especially when Tulo and Martin's salaries come off the books. However, I just can't believe that a big-market city like Toronto, with good to great support from its fans, won't eventually be able to field a higher payroll team again. Like I said before, if the team becomes a winner and makes the playoffs multiple years, there will be players commanding larger salaries but the owners will support a big payroll.

It's not so much that the Jays won't field higher than 125$ million in my guessing, it's that all teams will be below $150 million ish. Jays will still be a top 10 payroll but there will be a record low number of big money contracts so even if the Jays dip in free agency its gonna be for not so big contracts.

If the CBA changes then it can go back to the way it was before. I don't see the Jays ever being like the Ray's for payroll...they will always be top 10 it's just that I think everybody's payroll comes down as well as their operating costs - you already see it with huge discounts on managers salaries.

Vlad appears to need some work on pitch recognition as well. He swung at a slider off the plate and finished on one knee, balancing himself on his bat so he didn’t go all the way to the ground. The next pitch was the same except even farther outside. Vlad almost went around. After managing to hold up he walked around in a little circle shaking his head to indicate that he had not been fooled. I’m interested to see him again lnext week. My impression from this very sss is that he could have trouble with major league pitching.

Okay, I understand now,dalimon. Something did seem different last winter when so many free agents were left hanging until near spring training and had to settle for less money than they were expecting. Salaries, particularly the big tickets ones, may go down in the coming years but the players association and agents like Scott Boras will be doing everything they can to prevent that.

Not sure. This year the Yankees will be spending.
The NL was very competitive, so I expect some teams will be looking to get an edge.

Boston was very good. I don't know how they improve.

NYY was also good. Only Severion had 190+ IP this year. He was healthy. They have to figure something out about their rotation. I don't think it is very deep, considering you need 7 or 8 SPs in a year. Any SP can go down. Every team loses someone. If they lose Severino they may only win 88-92 games.

Consider Boston's record verses Toronto and Baltimore. If the record was just 19-19, they make the Playoffs, but do they still win the Division?

Consider New York's record verses Toronto and Baltimore. If the record was just 19-19, do they still make the Playoffs or does Tampa?

At 19-19 the Sox would still have had 96 wins and the Yankees 94 so the standings would have been the same, albeit closer. The Jays playing against the Red Sox,Yankees and the Rays had a putrid record of 13-44 and 0-7 against Oakland for some reason. They were 13-7 against the NL and about even with rest of the teams they faced. It's no secret where they have to improve next year.

Is this the best year that they have ever had against the NL?

Vlad appears to need some work on pitch recognition as well.

The same player that has 11 more unintentional walks than strikeouts in his milb career and flirted with .400 for most of the season? Because of two pitches?

Vlad has had no difficulty hitting in any league so far. Possibly no slumps either.
Next year he gets to prove this in the ML.

Hodgie, quality sliders are the toughest pitches to hit and one of the least common pitches minor leaguers see.

Sure wouldn’t want to say Vlad isn’t a generational hitter based on one game but he didn’t stand out in the game I watched. He had three single; none of which were hit with authority. Really looking forward to seeing him later this week. Maybe he will look more like that dominant hitter most of us expected to be in the majors in early 2019.