Wasn't Santos sent down a few days ago?

OK, Santos DFA'd for a 40 man spot for Murphy Smith.

Yeah, now I got it. Shafer came up when Santos was optioned a few days back.

I was not very high on Billy McKinney during the Happ trade, but he has been impressive thus far. It's not just the results, but he has been crushing the ball. It will be interesting to compare him to Clint Frazier moving forward who the prospect most fans preferred.

Alas, 'twas not to be.

McKinney has 23 AB's with the Jays. Compared to his entire minor league career of roughly 2,300 AB's, it's pretty meaningless. Not uncommon for a player to have a good first few games in the big leagues until pitchers adjust to him. Frazier hit .311 in AAA this year, with a .963 OPS before he suffered a concussion. McKinney played for 4 different teams in the minors this year, almost all of the time in AAA, and he hit .222 with a .777 OPS. They're almost exactly the same age. Frazier strikes me as a vastly superior prospect.

Yeah, he was good in the minors. Young so he had some ups and downs with all those trades but seems settled in quite nicely here.  A full 6 years of control after this season too which is very nice.  This is a kid who at one time shouldve been untouchable but instead kept getting traded over and over.  Lets hope this is for real.  He has always shown hope for it.

.777 OPS seems pretty good for a .222 BA. Do we have any info on the batted ball profile? Perhaps he was a bit unlucky. 50bps of BA from better luck would move his OPS to .877.

(ignoring the Frazier comp here and just looking at why 2018 might be an anomaly for McK)

"Frazier strikes me as a vastly superior prospect."

He is and if the Jays could have got Frazier, I am sure they would have. McKinney is obviously not going to continue with a 238 WRC+. I doubt McKinney hits for a good average in the majors but he could still be an everyday player with his ability to take a walk and power. He might not but that's why you play him to figure it out.

I was surprised to see a stat last night that had the Jays with the 5th most home runs in MLB. Looking it up, they are doing it while being 9th from the bottom in total hits. I know the Rogers Center is a good hitting park, but it is interesting to see how home run dependent they are even with the departure of Bautista and EE, plus just 36 games from Donaldson.

Also, if the Orioles maintain their current level it will be the biggest gap in final division standings in 20 years. In 1998 there were actually two divisions with over 50 games separating the top and bottom teams. The NL East had Atlata on top and Florida at the bottom 51 games back. The Yankees lead the AL East and Tampa Bay was 52 games behind.

Once you reach the majors, I'm not sure what you done in the low As have any relevance.
I"m still not sold on McKinney, but he has a nice short left handed swing.
The Jays don't have too many of those.

McKinney seems to have legit power and draws walks. He also hits a ton of line drives and fly balls, even in the minors. Looks like a solid power hitting profile. What has hurt him recently, and might hurt him going forward barring some adjustments, is contact. He can still be a productive big leaguer with a low BA but that’s going to lessen his ceiling. If he can play average to above average defense in right/left, that would certainly help.

Dan, Frazier may have hit very well in AAA this year, but that was in fact just 54 games itself which is a similar good stretch to what McKinney did a year ago. Here is a comparison of career AAA numbers:

McKinney: 131 GP 0.258/0.313/0.509 - 0.822 OPS
Frazier: 151 GP 0.269/0.343/0.488 - 0.831 OPS

I agree the Jays would have taken Frazier over McKinney in the trade but they both represent low average, high power corner outfielders in the majors. At this point I think Frazier hits for a better average, but McKinney likely hits for more power and the comparison between the two is at least worth following.

McKinney seems to have enough power to do well in the small AL East ballparks.
For now, he's interesting to watch.

first reaction when we got him was "another Teoscar"....but he already seems obviously better defensively - at least playable out in a corner at least, so now the offensive bar isn't quite so high.

Yeah, if he can just have average defense in left field he could be very useful.
Obviously, they don't need him to start against lefties, because there's always going to be a right handed bat looking for playing time in the outfield, so that gives him a boost.

Also, concussions are scary and I'll always go for the less injured/concussed player if given that alternative.

Most analysis I have read suggests that McKinney's best two tools are his hit tool and his power tool (Fangraphs, for example, rates both at 55 at peak, best he's got). That isn't a terrible two tools to have. If he can get the defence to "better than Teoscar" territory, could be at least a useful player.

I am very happy to see the Jays giving some of these younger guys some minutes to see what they have. No reason not to play McKinney basically every day the rest of the way.

Yeah, I'd to see Pillar sit and Grichuk play a lot of center field.
They really need to gift Granderson away to free another spot.

I'd also like to see Guerrieri come up and pitch out of the pen.
He's been holding a spot on the 40 roster for a year now and he's running out of options.

I'd be fine with this as well. That said, the fact that he hasn't once gotten a shot on the Buffalo shuttle suggests to me that he may be headed off the roster at end of year anyways. If he can't pitch well enough to crack the Jays bullpen/rotation this year, not sure our expectations should be too high for him next year at 27.

Signing Guerrieri was a good move at the time, but he's done nothing to suggest he has any future in the big leagues.

And wow -the Orioles with one amazingly bizarre trade. Well, bizarre for any team not owned by Angelos.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/orioles-acquire-jack-zoellner-from-phillies-for-international-bonus-pool-space.html#comments

ESPN's Dave Schoenfield's take on Josh:

"Would any contending teams be interested in Donaldson? The only risk would be picking up the final month of his $23 million salary, plus a marginal prospect or two. Would the Red Sox take him on? With Rafael Devers still on the DL, they've been playing Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt at third base. The Yankees could always play him at third and move Andujar to DH (or just DH Donaldson). The Astros don't need a third baseman, but maybe they'd be interested in Donaldson as a DH. True, Donaldson didn't hit much in his 36 games before the calf injury, but he also was never really healthy. He hit .270/.385/.559 in 2017, and if he can return to that level, he'd be a huge stretch-run pickup. I think some team will take a bite."

this is getting ridiculous.

Donaldson would be the best add any playoff team has made, period.

A healthy Donaldson, yes... but consider that they Jays waited until the last possible day to begin his rehab assignment if they hope to trade him (because they have to wait 2 days to put him on waivers and 1 day for waivers to clear, then it's August 31st). And he's owed ~$4 million which is a significant sum for virtually every team. He's a very risky addition... huge upside for a team if he performs like vintage Donaldson, but that seems very aspirational right now.

Better than Hamels, Happ or Murphy? That would be highly unlikely imo. Donaldson has a ways to go to be what he was and not a lot of time to do it.

"Donaldson would be the best add any playoff team has made, period."

Fans of Carlos Beltran and Randy Johnson might disagree.

Manny Machado scoffs at this list.

I hope the Jays offer pay Donaldson's salary (a sunk cost) to improve the return & also as Marc Hulet mentioned a PTBNL with an agreed sliding scale depending on health/performance seems the Jays best bet.

JD still has to pass through waivers. If he doesn't, Jays will have minimal leverage with the claiming team.

Regarding JD I strongly believe that these writers were never told anything by the Jay's FO. About half of what they are saying is made up IMO. Most of them will be just plain wrong.

Donaldson would be the best add any playoff team has made, period.

2015-2016 Donaldson, perhaps. But do we even know what this version of Donaldson is? I can't believe he is now magically healed with a week to go before the deadline, after having been broken all year long. My guess is this is Donaldson Lite, no more.

Or what Cracka said.

FG's Jay Jaffe with his take on the Tulo situation.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-season-without-troy-tulowitzki/

I think this whole Donaldson is pretty easy to break down from a Jays perspective.

A) If he is broken, not fully healed, career threatening injury, dead arm, bum calf with recurring problem...any one of these things then trade him for anything you can get since you will not want to offer him the QO under any circumstance

B) He was injured and there is nothing career-ending about it and the training staff believes he will heal to play regularly by next year. In this case pass him through waivers and trade him if you can get a return to your liking. If you don't get a solid return to your liking then offer him a QO and see where he is next year with the expectation that he will likely be your teams best hitter in 2019 (yes better than Vlad) and may be tradeable for a good haul at the deadline).

Agreed dalimon5. Check with the training staff about his health. Also it would be wise to consult a doctor or specialist abut Donaldson's condition. A second opinion is always good in matters of this sort.

Bautista continues his 2018 tour through the NL East, now landing on team #8 for his career. Guess the Phillies are looking for someone who can pinch-walk?

Isolated thunderstorms in Dunedin area. Delayed start to JD's rehab game.

Isolated thunderstorms in Dunedin area. Delayed start to JD's rehab game.

If the game is rained out it’s almost laughable. What did we do to alienate the baseball gods?

Props to the org for promoting Murphy Smith to the bigs for the first time in his career, as loyal an org soldier as we have - he starts, relieves, plays at multiple levels based on need.  That's a life changing moment for a guy who just turned 31 and has had exactly one legitimately good season, in 2016. 

JD's rehab game underway. Threw out the 1st batter of the game, walked in his 1st PA.

Rough game for Pannone so far.

Oh yeah let's put Gurriel at SS. 7 errors already in limited time. Tulo is smiling. If he's been injured he wins. If he hit a decline then he'll be out of baseball this time next year. It's either a big win and comeback or bust, no in between.

I'm betting on the former in case it wasn't painfully obvious.

Jay Jaffe thinks Gurriel is fine at shortstop with 0.7 WAR in a short sting, but he's worried about Bichette's defense?

The key part about return from injury is probably the age of the player.
Which means Tulo is in a gray zone, as younger it would be no problem and older it wouldn't be possible.

Of course, not a lot went right in the last 3 years.
Still, Tulo's bat plays at shortstop, especially with plus defense. It doesn't play anywhere else.
Nothing to do but try and compete.

It would seem the Jays ownership is worried about Donaldson accepting the QO, otherwise there wouldn't much to talk about. Maybe Shapiro has received some feedback about the deal he signed with JD this year. They didn't get much for 23M. I, personally doubt that Donaldson would want to play another year on the Rogers turf.

I think that the QO (~$18M) is probably the most guaranteed money that Donaldson is going to get this off-season. If you wanted to re-sign Donaldson, you could almost certainly get more favorable terms than the QO (incentives, option years, etc.). Obviously, the best scenario is that he declines the QO, and we pick up a comp pick in the 75-80 range. But that's looking riskier and riskier...

If JD comes back, rakes and stays healthy the balance of the season, he should get more than $18 million in guaranteed money, especially if teams feel playing on grass will reduce the chances of his calf issues reoccurring.

He might get more even if he is merely good and healthy.

John, if we wanted to, we could have gone young from the start:

CF Pompey 25
RF Grichuk 26
LF Smith 25
3B Gurriel 24
SS Diaz 27
2B Travis 27
1B Guerrero 19
C Jansen 23
DH Teoscar 25

UT Tellez 23
OF Alford 23
IF Urena 22
C McGuire 23


SP Stroman 27
SP Sanchez 25
SP Borucki 24
SP Pannone 24
SP R-Foley 22

RP Osuna 23

I guess maybe(?) we would have had a worse record now?

I did not know much about blue jays, and now I know a little more.  Analogies between bird and ballplayer welcome...

MLBTR has JD going on waivers tomorrow, but it has to be today, no?

They have to wait 2 days after he plays before he can be put on waivers and then 1 day to clear them. Cracka mentioned it earlier in the thread.

Ken Rosenthal says that the Jays want to trade Donaldson. They will not give him a qualifying offer as they want Vlad to play 3B next year (most of next year). They need to try other players at 3B in September so they really want to trade him now.

I think you have it backwards - takes 2 days to clear waivers, so the Jays have to put him on waivers today if he is to have postseason eligibility.

McGwire 52%. Grichuk 51%. That's percentage of career hits that are XBH.

Joey Gallo is at 62%. Khris Davis is at 51%. Chris Davis is at 46%.

I'm sure there are others, past and present, in the high 50s. No? There must be. I didn't bother with an extensive search. Dave Kingman 45%, Gorman Thomas 47%. Who am I not thinking of?

Yes, that is correct. It takes 48 hours to clear. Jon Heyman reports that he was put on waivers today. He should be cleared or claimed by noon on Friday.

Adam Dunn is 49.4% career XBH. I couldn't think of a significant player over 50%.

Shi Davidi reports Donaldson wont play tonight due to soreness in his legs and calves.

Shi Davidi reports on twitter that "he is hearing that Donaldson won't be in the lineup tonight due to soreness in his calves and legs".  If so, you wouldn't think he would be tradeable.  I would still give him a QO. 

might as well bring him back now

I will bet the farm, no QO is coming - this FO has moved on & I think they would like to move on from Tulo & Travis also.

Seems more and more its the players that want to move on.

I couldn't think of a significant player over 50%.

Hard to believe that Gallo stands so all alone above 60%. Must be the times we live in.

Donaldson is an interesting case.  He has an interest in the Blue Jays not offering a QO.  The whole thing resembles a game of chicken to me. 

Yeah. I wouldn't bet the farm, but I'm pretty skeptical that Donaldson will be back. I'd bring him back though. If there was any chance of that, though, Vlad Jr would have had an inning or two in OF this year.

Not only is no QO coming, but Jays should not allow him to play in September under any circumstances.

Last night was the deadline for Donaldson to play to start the waiver process to meet the August 31 deadline.

It looks like Donaldson wasn't ready for last night but gave it a go anyway to see if he could do it. Now that he can't play today, and the August 31 deadline is gone, he should take another week to get his legs ready before trying again if a Jays team is still in the playoffs.

Jays will not offer Donaldson a QO nor should they. Spending $18m and taking away abs from guys you want to develop long term in the vague hope you might get a decent prospect back Makes no sense, look at the Moustakes trade as a guideline. Moustakes was making a third of what Donaldson would be making and hasn’t missed tons of time in the last two years to serious injuries. What did Moustakes get back? Brett Phillips. You want to spend $18 million for a chance to get a fifth OFer in a trade at mid season? Donaldson is not bringing back a stud prospect or anything close to that in any possible scenario. Even Machado who had significantly more value than Donaldson would have even things went well, didn’t bring back a top-100 prospect and many people thought the Dodgers overpaid. The timing is terrible for the Jays and even worse for Donaldson who probably lost $100m this year, but Donaldson will not be back with the Jays.

The last vestiges of the supposed Bautista/EE/Martin/Tulo/Donaldson dynasty have almost disappeared (remember when some argued that that group would be a championship-calibre core that should be extended for years beyond 2015?).

Thankfully, common sense prevailed on all fronts — including the decision not to offer Donaldson a huge contract extension last season or off-season.

I have moved on from Donaldson and hope the Jays have as well. Frankly, I am far more interested in the health of David Paulino than that of Josh Donaldson.

Yes,I really hope Paulino can pitch in the AFL - Paulino & Hector Perez are the 2 most upside pitchers the Jays have in the AA/AAA levels IMO & their development(or not) is a key factor going forward.

It's difficult to put him in a game if he can't rehab properly.
A solid September would give him some value back but it's likely too late for that now.

Maybe he dodges a QO, but if he doesn't play in September, his value takes a tumble.
The best case scenario for him would be to be traded and contribute in the playoffs.

Right now, he just looks like he'll never be healthy again.

Time to focus on moving Granderson and Clippard.

The QO being offered (or being turned down if offered) is definitely looking more unlikely now, which would be a terrible situation for the Jays. They don’t want Donaldson back and now may end up losing him for literally nothing.

Chalk this up as a learning experience and don’t make the same mistake again. Decide what you want to do with Stroman and move accordingly. Don’t wait for his final year of control to do something.

“The last vestiges of the supposed Bautista/EE/Martin/Tulo/Donaldson dynasty have almost disappeared (remember when some argued that that group would be a championship-calibre core that should be extended for years beyond 2015?).”


It’s not even been two full seasons since the 2016 playoffs ended, yet Donaldson is now likely going to end up signing a one year deal as a free agent, Tulo has missed a year and a half of baseball (and was replacement level prior to that), Martin is an overpaid backup (though still a useful player), Encarnacion is declining, and Bautista has played on 3 teams in one season after signing for $1 million.

If it wasn’t clear before how short a window that core had, it should be crystal clear now.

I think it's fairly obvious now that there are serious health issues with Donaldson. To be out all year without the ability to run the bases is eye opening. I wonder what the actual injury is because this bogus "dead arm" or "sore calf" doesn't pass the smell test to me. Dude probably has a torn ligament and thinks he can play/rehab through it to salvage his age 33/34 season.

I think we're looking at a Drew Smyly/Nathan Eovaldi scenario here where a team will sign Donaldson for the upside after he heals. He's definitely not returning now and now I'm excited. There's a lot of money coming off the books now and I wonder what Shapkins may do with it.

For the record I was hoping to see a line up next year including a healthy JD, Tulo, Vlad and Smoak but I'm less skeptical that JD will be healthy...and yes I do think Tulo will finally be healthy and 60% or more of the player he was in his peak.

Chalk this up as a learning experience and don’t make the same mistake again. Decide what you want to do with Stroman and move accordingly. Don’t wait for his final year of control to do something.
A learning experience for whom, the front office or ownership?

“A learning experience for whom, the front office or ownership?”

It was mostly just a general statement. Find a way to not have this same scenario play out again. Shapiro has rebuilt multiple times in Cleveland so I’m sure he knew what was up here and this was a Rogers call but hopefully after two years out of the playoffs and with declining revenue, Rogers might more willing to listen to logic this time around.

Yeah, the Jays are a cautionary tale. No one wants to be a cautionary tale,

After the disastrous start to the 2017 season, that was the time to pivot and start the selloff in july and into the winter - Shapiro had done it in cleveland, so why didn't he do it last year? I think it's maybe because Shapiro has been trying to convince Rogers to spend tens of millions to renovate the Stadium (so far unsuccessfully) and generate new revenue streams - maybe he was afraid that selling off and the accompanying drop in revenues would derail his efforts - the decision was a big mistake & he so far hasn't persuaded Rogers to spend big on renovations - Maybe those rumblings of unhappiness on both sides has some legs.

Maybe we will have a Tulo-Travis middle infield next year?

The calf muscles are dense and compact. They cramp easily. There's a number of complications that can arise when you have large calves. I've heard of a cross country skier who needed surgery to enlarge the sheaths/envelops, whatever it's called around her calves.

The concern for me is that he seemed in worse shape at the start of spring training than at the end of the previous season.

Mostly disagree on the Phillies, John. Yes, the Ryan Howard deal was a terrible idea at the time and was widely panned.

But the Phillies with Halladay won 97 and 102 games in 10/11 and made the playoffs both years. How is that different from the moves AA made to get the Jays into the playoffs?

Phillies would have been fine if they hadn't gone 7-8 drafts in a row without drafting an mlber.

That is an excellent question hypobole.
AA rebuilt in 2010,11 and 12. Then he felt that his team was ready so he traded with Miami and the NYM for the 2013 season. 2013 was a bad luck year I guess but he still believed in the team so he did not add much in 2014. I 2015 he got JD and also added at the 2015 July 31 trade deadline.

Regarding the Phillies: They were in their window of contention when they traded for Halladay + $6mil. They made the playoffs 5 years in a row from 2007 to 2011. So definitely a window of contention. I cannot remember if they won a WS in that Window or not. I think they did. They lost in 7 games to ST Louis 2010. Game 7 was Halladay vs C Carpenter. St Louis won the WS.


Our window was smaller than the Phillie's window. But we play in the AL East.

FWIW according to statcast Devon Travis has a 0.269 xBA and 0.432 xSLG. His xWOBA is 0.324 versus a 0.290 OBA shows he has been unlucky this year, but his xWOBA still ranks 24th out of all second baseman with at least 100 PA.

Is Grichuk any better than Pillar as an everyday player? You gain a bit of isoP and lose a bit of defense. Both seem to be way too streaky for my liking.

Both seem to be way too streaky for my liking.

Serious question: If a player puts up an 800 OPS every month, is this preferable to one who oscillates between 700 and 900 every month, posting an overall 800? Is consistency even a demonstrable skill? If so, should in-season consistency be given a premium value?

One thing about Grichuk's and Pillar's 2018 is that one can let themselves be deluded into believing that who they are at their best is really fundamentally who they are, if they could just find a way to stay there. So Pillar starts the year with a 903 May and despite crying wolf in 2017 with an 844 May, people are tempted to believe that he has finally "turned a corner", etc. Grichuk has a 988 June after a woeful start and we are tempted to believe that at long last, he has arrived. Now acclimated to new pitchers and a new team, he can be the superstar that his athleticism has long suggested is possible. Finally, the break out.

I think a serious analysis of a player's season does not just brush aside the bad stretches and focus solely on the good. It's easy to rationalize bad stretches (injury, new environment, vision, Saturn in the wrong house) and to fail to attribute to good stretches the contributions of the always capricious gods of random variability. The brass will need to bear this in mind when evaluating the roster.

It appears I have may have gone off-topic.

Re Grichuk, both BR and FG ding him for his defense. That doesn't align with my subjective evaluation but I'll yield to the numbers. I'm just surprised. Heck, he even looked decent in CF, never mind RF.

I think the difference in Pillar/Grichuk bats is bigger than just that, but the defense difference probably does make up for most of it.

Grichuk: 109wrc+/3.1war650 career, 112wrc+/2.7war650 this year, 109wrc+/2.8war projected
Pillar: 86wrc+/2.5war650 career, 87wrc+/2.6war650 this year, 91wrc+/2.8war650 projected

I guess the question is whether or not you feel good about giving any player with that poor a bat a fulltime spot, regardless of defense. Still, neither of these spots are real worry spots imo.

Other potential OF projections:

McKinney 99wrc+
Teoscar 96wrc+
Gurriel 88wrc+
Pompey 83wrc+
Alford 73wrc+

I'm not sure I have much hope left in Teoscar becoming a capable defender, so hopefully he hits better than that. McKinney at least looks playable out there but maybe not actually a positive defensive player - so he'll need to hit more than that to be clearcut starting mlber. Pompey/Alford probably can be good 4th OFs. Gurriel is just a complete wildcard at the moment.

We can probably (maybe?) hope for one quality starting OF out of that group, but it might be none.

Min 20 BBE, Brls/PA Rank out of 556:

009. Grichuk 9.8%
014. Hernandez 9.5%
022. Morales 8.9%
023. McKinney 8.9%
052. Jansen 7.7%
092. Smoak 6.7%
101. Gurriel 6.5%

Min 25 PA, xWOBA Rank out of 600:

004. McKinney 0.441
009. Morales 0.415
075. Smoak 0.368
099. Gurriel 0.359
111. Grichuk 0.355
117. Jansen 0.353
133. Hernandez 0.350

League Avg. 0.317

McKinney likely won't keep this up, but this is the core group of hitters + Vlad leading into next season. These are the main indicators that the A's have rode into the postseason this year.

Does Josh Donaldson get Claimed/Traded? If he's not, any return is meaningless. If he is, would the return the Jays get be acceptable? This says a lot about the Jays' future intentions.

Does Donaldson get a Qualifying Offer? If he has an MVP-caliber performance left, then of course you do. He's not accepting. Otherwise just let him walk. Then he will accept.

ken Rosenthal says Donaldson will try to play in the first game for Dunedin tonight.

I still think anyone who says don't make a QO to Donaldson is crazy. Especially since you can wait for end of season and presumably see him play a few games of minor league ball or even simulated ball (or even MLB if the minor league season ends).

The Jays will have Randal Grichuk (RF/CF); Kevin Pillar (CF); Billy McKinney (LF/RF) and Teoscar Hernandez (LF) for the Outfield next year, that's very acceptable and relatively cheap. Anthony Alford, Dalton Pompey and Dwight Smith Jr. are cheaper, but they are all borderline MLB/AAA Outfielders, perhaps not ready/good enough.

I don't think the front office shares this view, but I would be inclined to give Donaldson a QO unless the medicals on him suggest that these injury issues are likely to continue next year.

I'm very surprised the front office is so determined to move on from him that they are trying to rush him back from injury for the outside chance of getting a C- prospect in return.

Donaldson wouldn't rush back unless he wants to rush back, which he obviously does. Better for him to be traded rather than the possibility of getting a QO, since that will impact his free agency, both in terms of suitors and contract.

I am the other way. I don’t understand why you would give Donaldson a QO. He would take it because it’s more money than he’d get elsewhere. Where the benefit for the Jays paying more than market value for someone who doesn’t fit into their long term plans and takes ABs from guys they want to look at?

I will take the over on Donaldson. He will get more than 1/18. He may get a multi-year deal that is less than 18 AAV, but 1/18 is more team friendly than 4/60 even if the AAV is higher. The QO is a non-brainer.

If they are comfortable with his health I’d QO him and if he signs look to trade him about the time Vlad comes up, which would give his new team just short of a year of playing time. They’d probably eat some salary but payroll is going to be down so suspect it’s affordable.

Now if he gets reinjured early they’ve wasted a whack of dough but I’d take the risk- if you can’t get a deal done now- I think it is better than being 100% sure you’ll get nothing.

Of course team doctors may have no faith in his health for next year..

I'm for a qualifying offer. It's not like the money is going to hurt the jays for 0ne year. With any luck he's healthy and we flip him mid season. Not much to lose. He can play 3rd some of the time and DH the rest. Would be nice to trade morales for whatever we could get.

Donaldson has a pall over him right now. The Palm Beach pitcher became injured after pitching to Josh Palacios and just as Donaldson was coming to bat.

Donaldson faces the reliever and homers.

I think the QO depends on the true nature of the injury. Before the injury he was a 7 WAR player for five years. Silly to just walk away from that unless the injury is chronic.

rush him back from injury for the outside chance of getting a C- prospect in return

And to avoid the PR hit of not offering him a QO.

Donaldson's homer?  What did you expect- he had Kevin Smith batting behind him for protection!

I think a large part of this management team's success or failure in the next phase of a rebuild is going to hinge on how they sort out the team's current OF situation. In Pillar and Grichuk they have two players who aren't young, aren't terrible but who are also something like 2 WAR players. I actually don't see an OF in the system in full year ball who looks like a reasonable bet to be a first division starting OF. There are probably 4 to 6 players at Dunedin or above who profile as 4th OF types. Either they get lucky with a return to status from someone like Alford or someone like McKinney performs better than his minor league record would suggest or they are going to have to expend some resources (cash in free agency or prospects) to acquire some OF help. Of course, I guess the same could also be said for the starting pitching situation.

“Before the injury he was a 7 WAR player for five years. Silly to just walk away from that unless the injury is chronic. “

And Jose Bautista was 3 WAR+ for six straight years. Age always wins in the end. What the issue is that the Jays are not going to get much back for Donaldson in any scenario. Flip him? For what? Less than the Jays got for Happ for sure, so basically, let the Jays spend $18m, take away ABs from players who might be with the team long term in order to maybe get a so so prospect? People talk about no downside (there is) but there is no upside either and for that salary, you have to justify a positive impact.

@Nigel. I expect a couple of infielders like Groshans /Hiraldo/Biggio will you me up in corner OF spots. Always easier to move people down the defensive spectrum.

Donaldson will be 33 next season. He's not 35 or 36 fer crissakes.

A healthy Josh Donaldson (i.e. what he was in 2015-2017) is comparable to Manny Machado, not Mike Moustakas.

I don't know why people act like it's certain he'd fetch less than J.A. Happ or would fetch Brett Phillips in a trade deadline swap next year. It may be more likely that Donaldson performs closer to 2018 Moustakas than 2018 Machado due to a combination of age and nagging injuries, but if Donaldson is fully recovered from his injury, it's quite plausible he's the best hitter available at next year's deadline.

I think most people who are in favour of qualifying Donaldson certainly recognize there is risk in doing so, but most of us believe the benefits and potential upside (which is not only the potential trade, but also any outside shot of contending) outweigh the risks of extending the offer.

Glevin, that's possible, but if management is waiting on the Groshans' and Hiraldo's of this world to fill that gap they are going to waste most of Vladdy Jr's 6 (and a bit) years in Toronto. Those guys are likely 4 years or more away.

It's one of the issues with the system, if they want to build a team in the time that Vladdy is in Toronto they are likely going to have to cash in some of the lottery ticket prospects in the low minors to find OFs and starting pitchers.

I would like for the Jays to qualify Donaldson and try and sell him on a short deal to settle in a casual 3B and mostly DH role similar to what Boston does with JD Martinez and LF. I would love to see him healthy and paired up with Vlad to compete from day 1 next year.

However I don't think there is any chance the front office does that. As a fan I want to dream on that, but JD is quickly becoming David Wright.

take away ABs from players who might be with the team long term in order to maybe get a so so prospect?

No I’d only carry him till Vlad’s up, and it solves the question of who plays third roll then. They may well get more for him in May then July as well.

"Less than the Jays got for Happ for sure, so basically, let the Jays spend $18m, take away ABs from players who might be with the team long term in order to maybe get a so so prospect?"

Why can we be so sure they would get less for Donaldson if he returns to hitting like 2017?

As far as I can tell, the following players represent the so called log jam next season. Donaldson, Vladdy, Tulo, Diaz, Gurriel, Travis, Drury, Solarte, Smoak and Morales. I see precisely two names who might be part of the future, and exactly one more likely to be a +2 WAR player if healthy. That's Vladdy, Gurriel and Donaldson. Everyone else is backups or old mediocre vets. I really don't see the roster crunch some do.

Personally I would convert Gurriel to OF tomorrow (aside from athleticism and a strong arm he is a terrible infielder, plus the Jays don't have many OF prospects), dump Solarte and when Vladdy is able to be called up next year if everyone is healthy and performing trade/dump one of Smoak/Morales.

Looks like The Sun got a couple of quotes out of Josh today. Sounds like when the time is right, he's going to rip on Shatkins.

Donaldson hasn't been  healthy the last 2 years.
The front office has 2 pieces of info we don't have, his medical files and rogers' payroll parameters.

They tried to build a team around him this year and it didn't work.
Mind you, all the starters except Happ underperformed too.

Next year, they'll start developing new pitchers, so the expectations will be lower.
They could still be in the wild card picture if everything turns right, but they won't burn assets trying to get there.
They will have several pieces more to flip if they're not in contention: Smoak, Morales, maybe Giles, Stroman, Sanchez, Pillar.

It would be hard to hand out a QO if he doesn't play in September.

Can he blame anybody for not playing?
He was only asking for a 7 year extension.

I know I'm annoying but players being unhappy under this regime is not a surprise to me.

I would give Donaldson the QO if I were the Jays, but the logic behind not doing it is sensible. If the team has no aspirations of competing in 2019, and can’t offer the QO to Donaldson again, then the team is left with paying him close to $20M in 2019 in hopes of trading him as a 33 year old rental next year. If he has another injury filled season in 2019 then the team would have effectively wasted a season (plus money) that they could have spent seeing if existing talent (Drury or someone else) could become something more than what they are. Plus that QO money could be used for more long term help, either in free agency or adding salary in a trade.

Me personally, I’d give him the QO, put him at 3B/DH for 2019, and see what happens. I just hate seeing the asset go for nothing. However if the FO can get the equivalent of a comp pick in a trade for him right now then go for it.

"Where the benefit for the Jays paying more than market value for someone who doesn’t fit into their long term plans and takes ABs from guys they want to look at?

what exactly is the downside you are seeing here that outweighs having the potential trade value of an mvp calibre player?

How about a trade of Donaldson and Granderson to a team?

Yankees add another MVP is the headline

but they are not talking about Donaldson, but McCutchen.

https://www.mlb.com/news/andrew-mccutchen-traded-to-yankees/c-292684000

The trade is rumored to include 2 minor league prospects, one of whom is number 23 on the Yankee's prospects according to MLB Pipeline.

Not a big haul, unless the unnamed player is much better, and that is for someone who has been healthy and effective this year.

If Donaldson is not happy with the front office, then he'll have to decline the QO. No?

I don't think Morales or Smoak are attractive trade candidates next year since nobody has traded for them this year and they've both cleared waivers.

Looking at players over 30 that have been traded for quality prospects...its non existent this season around the league. Longoria for Arroyo (ok prospect) seems to have been the best haul.

Teams want starting pitchers so best we can hope for is Sanchez and Stroman healthy and signed long term or traded for pieces we can't get from Donaldson or Smoak.

It just seems to me that this is a very ugly end to the best trade in 20 years for this franchise. The return for Donaldson will be very low, and generally all parties really deserved more. It is easy to point out things in hindsight but injuries of this nature are hard to predict.

Joe Posnanski has done a very useful "with or without you" evaluation of catcher defence.  Over a 55 year period, the leader (by far) is Gary Carter, with Yadier Molina second (also by far) over a pack.  Russell Martin ranks 6th, ahead of Carlton Fisk and Johnny Bench.  It's a surprise to see Mike Piazza rate about as highly as Bench on this measure. 

Can't wait for the "Blame it on the Rain" headline when Josh is traded or non-qualified.

I don't think Morales or Smoak are attractive trade candidates next year since nobody has traded for them this year and they've both cleared waivers.

I find it very odd that the Yankees showed no interest in Smoak during this waiver period.

One quick thought on Hernandez -- he only played 9 games of minor league ball in LF (vs. 434 in CF & 242 in RF). Once he got to majors (even with Houston), he became predominantly an LF. Some guys adapt pretty fast, but each outfield spot requires different muscle memory based on the trajectory of the ball. Maybe Hernandez just needs more reps in LF. Off topic, but I believe Kyle Schwarber has become a decent LF (after converting from Catcher), but it's taken him 250 games or so to get there...

@BNightengale
8m8 minutes ago
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Josh Donaldson and Curtis Granderson each expected to be traded tonight before midnight deadline

Who is doing the expecting in that tweet?

Teoscar's defense to me has always been a mystery, as the tools and minor league scouting reports indicate he should be an above average fielder. Teoscar doesn't even need to be a good defensive player, but just not awful. I just start to speculate if different coaching and more scouting preparation could make any sort of improvement for a lot of the younger players. I am not totally sure how statcast positioning works, but Teoscar tends to play closer to center and deeper than most when playing LF with Dwight Smith Jr and Granderson also showing similar positioning.

Hernandez's defensive issues seem to stem from poor routes and lack of concentration. I don't know about the lack of concentration but I do remember some research I read a couple of years ago done on football wide receivers which surmised that judging the angle, speed and distance of the flight of a ball is a cognitive function that some are just plain better at than others. Its similar to the idea that some people can "see" an object in its three dimensions easier than others. I'm not sure its entirely correctible no matter what old timey baseball types say about practice.

FWIW, Contreras in Vancouver is similarly extremely athletic and extremely challenged to play any OF position. I can think of quite of few athletic OFs in Jays history that couldn't field. Alvis Woods immediately leaps to mind.

Donaldson cleared waivers. I believe that means that no team was willing to simply assume the balance of Donaldson's contract (i.e., 4M for September). And rightfully so, given his health. So the Jays will be kicking in cash and presumably wanting a decent prospect in return.

I suppose at worst Teoscar could shift to mostly a DH role once Kendry's contract is up after next season.

Even with his plus power, I'm not sure Hernandez has much of a future at all unless he can get his K% under some kind of control.

I still believe Teoscar's impressive all-fields power should keep him a solidly above average bat.....but once again I'm hearing echoes of Josh Phelps.

Hernandez’s stat cast numbers are really good so I think the power potential is real but the BB/K might be his downfall. McKinney seems like a better bet to me, but too early to tell.

Oh I agree the power is real. I think Grichuk and Hernandez are really the same offensive player. I think it’s really about the k%. At rates above 30%, only extreme power or BABIP luck can keep a player’s head above water.

Mike, I agree completely. I just don't think that there is anything in Hernandez's or Grichuk's history to suggest a much higher BB% is likely for either of them. Both are walking at rates you would expect given their minor league and major league history. So, I think, for both, its about their K%'s. Grichuk has done an excellent job of bringing his down from career threatening to manageable. Hernandez's has gone the other way and it may have something to do with his defence. However, his minor league stats have always suggested a K% that was fundamentally broken.

I found this to be an interesting statistical experiment:

https://jaysjournal.com/2018/08/31/blue-jays-would-better-free-agents-have-made-a-significant-difference/

Sometimes players with very good power add to their walk rate until about 30 and sometimes longer.  Examples would be Frank Howard, Torii Hunter, Jeff Kent and Alfonso Soriano.  It usually happens when the player is not utterly hopeless in the W/K department, and Hernandez is not that.  Subjectively I can see him doing that if the fielding problem is resolved. 

Aren't the premises flawed here? I'm pretty sure the current GM has spent more on free agents than the previous 2.

Sources: #BlueJays having discussions with #Yankees, #Phillies, #Braves and #Cardinals for @BringerOfRain20

So, it would appear JD is going to reunite with EE and play for the Clevelanders..