Jays defence, -68 DRS.
Phillies defence, -104 DRS.

Should be fun.

Martin catches Borucki tonight. Maybe Gibby is trying something new to get Borucki back on track.

I suspect it has more to do with Gurriel's return, and Gibbons wanting Diaz at third and not wanting to sit Martin for Jansen.

Was saying to my buddy that Morales semms like he's a lot closer to the plate just before he went oppo.
Maybe it's an Arieta thing but anyone else notice that during the hot streak?

Alright Morales, enough is enough. I was the only one on this site defending you for the first 2 months of this season, and I bet the under for 27.5 HRs. Please stop.

McKinney seems to want to deprive us of watching Teoscar in the outfield.

I'm generally not good at depriving myself of anything, but I'll take that one.

Giles hasn't impressed me yet. He always seems to be on the edge of disaster.

Giles is an exciting closer. Edge of seat type. Got the job done today.

Excuse me, but I was also defending Morales. I did not expwct this.If you were a real fan 92-93 you wouldn't be asking him to duck again.
*snark*

It’s kind of amusing that when Morales was struggling, everyone wanted to highlight that they always thought signing him was a terrible move. Now that he is doing well (118 wRC+), people are starting to emerge to remind the world how great they always thought he was.

I admit that I also used to do this sort of thing, but I’m trying to break the habit.

Giles has a good fastball, but doesn't command it. Never had.
He has a good breaking ball, but he doesn't throw it for strikes.

I'm impressed that he's 17 for 17 in saves.

Impressed or surprised?

Giles in a lot of ways is like Mitch Williams where you wonder how he succeeds, knowing that one day one thing could end it all quickly.  Although if he gives up a World Series losing Home Run at least we'll have had the fun of getting there again.

Giles in a lot of ways is like Mitch Williams where you wonder how he succeeds

He might be like Williams in that he is nerve wracking to watch, but these are two separate animals. Giles' career component rates are all somewhere between very good and terrific: 12.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9.

Williams, meanwhile, was walking over 6 per 9 IP, even at the height of his closerdom. His mitigating talent was keeping the ball in the yard (unless it was the World Series, of course).

Holy crap, is Steve Pearce knocking the cover off the ball for those damn Red Sox.

Good for him, really. He always seemed like a guy easy to root for.

Also, I don't know if it'll last, but man is it exciting to see some Jays prospects tearing it up. Jansen (you were right, ugly - this guy is legit) and McKinney are a lot of fun to watch right now.

(I'm trying to block out memories of J.P. Arencibia's MLB debut.)

Giles is a lot better than 2018 has made him look. Yes he’s a reliever and those, even elite ones, can fall off a cliff in a hurry, but I wouldn’t be shocked at a bounce back 2019 from him. Velocity and K rate is still there.

I concur that it’s good to see some young blood out there. Gurriel looks like an exciting player to watch, Iansen is obviously a top prospect, and I think McKinney might be more useful than some think (lefty bat with power and eye). Next year at this time might be when see the roster filled with young players.

It was great to see Borucki bounce back from that disastrous outing against the Yankees,too. Even the first inning was a little shaky but he pitched well overall.

Yeah, ugly was early and often about Jansen's offensive skills. However, I also remember he and others freaking out when Jansen's "fringy" arm was mentioned during Jansen's AFL stint as well as the umbrage over the "bat-first" comment. People dredged up old reports of Danny's "great defence".

Jamie Garcia DFA for Sanchez.

not great defense, but actual non-halfassed reports always said Jansen had a legit shot to stick at catcher, unlike many so-called catching prospects who you know are 1B/DHs from the start.

for example, his defense was at least always comparable to a guy like Mejia's. (and now it looks just plain better).

Borucki is looking promising but will eventually have to improve on both his BB and K rates (3.2, 5.8) since his HR rate (0.5) is likely not sustainable.

(and now it looks just plain better)

C'mon there you go again - how many "looks" have you had at Mejia's defence?

Anybody else (Gerry?) hearing what I'm hearing about Tulo? He can return but has agreement with Jays to return next year with playing time guarantee as it means Rogers isn't responsible for his salary this year. If he plays one game this season then Rogers covers the salary vs insurance picking up the entire tab or a large portion. Tulo wanted to come back mid August and Jays have been trying to come to agreement to hold off.

That's the news I've been hearing for a couple weeks.

A playing time agreement next year for Tulo would be a big mistake. He should be released.

I'm thinking the corporate entity is not likely committing $20M insurance fraud (I assume that's the mechanism that this would have to happen through). If they are, that's a very bad day for anyone involved.

I don't think it's insurance fraud...lets assume that the owners/managers are smart enough to avoid criminality.

As for releasing Tulo ...

"A playing time agreement next year for Tulo would be a big mistake. He should be released."

Playing injured (or not depending on your view) since coming to TOR:

Tulo 727 OPS plus defence plus intangibles (238 games)

Travis 723 OPS (236 games)

Diaz 715 OPS (177 games)

If we have a much better option then go for it, otherwise you take the chance that he can perform better when healthy and pay the man his salary. If you're at home playing MLB The Show with updated rankings every week then yes of course, release Tulo and go trade for Correa...I'll go the realistic route.

I haven't heard anything. Usually the insurance company has their own doctors that would review the Tulo file and possibly conduct a physical exam of Tulo if deemed necessary. So I am skeptical.

That's the news I've been hearing for a couple weeks.

Source?

Well Ben Nicholson Smith was just talking about Tulo on the pregame show and said it was hard to imagine a place for Tulo in the organization next year. Yesterday, Stoeten suggested that a release might be the best option:

"It pains me to say it, but is it maybe not best for everyone involved if the Jays release Tulowitzki at the conclusion of this season and give him the chance to work out for other teams in the winter?"

Yes, Parker, Pearce is hitting well for Boston, with an OPS of 1.053 since the trade in late June, but they still aren't playing him very much. He only has 79 AB's since the trade 2 months ago. I'm surprised he hasn't unseated Moreland at 1B.

Giles' career numbers are pretty similar to Osuna's. ERA - Giles 2.89, Osuna 2.86, FIP - Giles 2.41, Osuna 2.61, K/9 - Giles 12.0, Osuna 10.2, H/9 - Giles 7.4, Osuna 6.8, BB/9 - Giles 2.8, Osuna 1.6. HR/9 - Giles 0.7, Osuna 0.7. So Giles walks a few more, and gives up slightly more hits, but strikes out more, and HR's are the same.

Cavan Biggio just made his second appearance on Carson Cistulli's "Fringe Five" feature at FanGraphs.

Insurance pays the Players when they on the D.L., how much is unknown. The Team pays Players when they are not on the D.L.

Team, not insurance, pays players on the DL, in almost all cases.

I think I've watched every Sanchez start for the past two seasons with a deep, swelling sense of unease. It's like watching someone drive down the road with their wheels half on and just hoping they make it to their destination unharmed.

I just have a feeling Sanchez is going to pull a Carpenter and be an ace after he leaves.

I get the feeling he's more likely to pull a Ricky Romero.

This team is certainly more fun with potential long-term pieces in the lineup. Also, this Morales guy they picked up replace the old awful DH they used to have, is amazing.

Biagini AGAIN? I can't think of a worse choice in a 1-run game.

I know it hurts draft position every year this happens but i think I still prefer 2018 wins to potential 2023 wins. Too bad the Jays didn't discover this excellent strategy...morales hitting a hr every day...earlier. just bad coaching I guess.

"Source?"

Not anybody that has a name on a column otherwise you would have heard the same thing. There's lots of employees of the team and outside of the players themselves this is where most writers get their intel from.

Mark Shapiro didn't call me on my phone last night to tell me his thoughts or plans regarding Tulowitzki. I heard a rumour from contacts at the stadium and employees of the club (who aren't usually contacts at the stadium but sometimes can be).

OK

I wonder if the Jays can manage to trade Donaldson for a PTBNL based on his performance or even team performance. Like trade him to Cleveland and if he hits certain targets, Jays get prospect A, if he misses they get prospect B.

You're excused, lexomatic. Perhaps you were defending Morales elsewhere, but it was not on this site. I was alone on an island.

And I certainly don't want him to suck, only that he finishes with 27 HRs.

Some teams do have insurance on their players that is only paid out if he misses the entire season. I remember Beeston saying the Jays were not one of them and that the team "self-insured", but who knows what the policy is now.

I wonder if the insurance policy followed Tulo from Colorado. Maybe in this instance they chose to keep it in place for some reason.

Nope, I did. I was measured, but cautiously optimistic. I referred to the statscast stats (exit velocity, etc) as source of the optimism.
But a lot of my posts get ignored.

Lexomatic, was that you posting Morales xwOBA stats?

Nope. I must have come around later. I know there was a fangraphs article that swayed me somewhat from my initial reaction, which was indifferent. That's whats in those threads. I may have posted a few days later in a different thread, but being known as a consistent Morales defenser isn't important enough to me to prove. I think I've been pretty consistent since then, though, with the possibility of more but the disappointment of what we received until his recent 60 game hot stretch.

Apparently Donaldson's locker has been cleared out according to TSN.

Donaldson might just be going on injury rehab thus why it would've been cleared out.  Once on rehab they can put him on waivers and try to trade.

He's been on rehabs in the past and never had his locker cleared out.

Update on our draft standings, which haven't changed from the current 10th worst/11th pick in some time.

We're 2 up on the Mets, 3 up on Texas and 3 1/2 on Cinci.

Who can pass us? Right now only see the Mets. With DeGrom, a healthy Thor and a rejuvenated Wheeler, their starting pitching is as good as many (most?) playoff teams.

However we've also pulled within 1 game of the Twins, 2 1/2 the Angels and 3 the Giants. Heck, we're only 3 1/2 back of the Nats and Pirates.

Maybe someone complained about the musky aroma of his unwashed equipment. :)

It's really crazy when you think about the franchise 2 and a half years ago. Bautista, Encarnacion, Donaldson and Tulowitzki. I remember when Tulo came over Donaldson was bragging " You haven't had this much protection since Todd Helton, boi!"..oh how the times have changed.

I still think Tulowitzki and Martin are the perfect veterans to lend some value on the field and off the field for the next 2 years. The argument that Tulo is too expensive doesn't fly because he's essentially already paid. If the question was who do you go with, Diaz or Tulo or Gurriel or Bo if you had to offer a contract...then sure it's a different answer.

IF Tulo can't contribute next year then sure, I see the benefit of releasing him like Garcia. Just look at Morales...if a player is useful and you have to pay them anyways then keep running them out. By useful I mean offers Wins above replacement level.

Stephen Brunt did a feature on SN Connected a couple of nights back suggesting that Donaldson would never again play for the Jays. I believe it aired on radio in the morning as well.

He cannot be put on waivers without playing in a rehab game.

Just read on TSN that Donaldson is expected to go on a rehab assignment Monday.... for what it's worth.

That gives him 5 days to show he's healthy. Do you put him through waivers tomorrow night (before teams see him) or Thursday (after teams see a few games worth).

I personally think he gets claimed either way.

Put him on waivers immediately he is going to play.

On Tulo, Scott Mitchell on TSN says he has give Jays blueprint to rid themselves of him if that's what they want by saying that if he is buried on SS depth chart, he will pack bags and go home. He will not consider playing another position.

He may pack his bags and go home BUT not without his money.

7 games in a row. Kendrys and Barry Bonds in the same sentence.

According to Wilner on the radio, no switch hitter in MLB history has ever hit HRs in seven straight games. Not Mantle, not Chipper, not Eddie Murray. That's pretty cool.

Morales is getting close to earning his annual salary this year, based on $/WAR. He’s now earned about $8m of his $11m salary (after being well into negative territory earlier this season). It was only a few months ago when if there was one thing Jays fans knew for sure — one constant in the vicissitudes of Toronto fan opinion — it was that Morales must be released immediately. Since then he’s been the team’s best hitter.

Conclusion: nobody knows anything.

Conclusion: nobody knows anything.
Has he been a good influence on Gurriel too (mentoring?) IF so he's got a good case for being the team MVP.

Good for Morales. Glad to see the underdog come out on top on occasion.

Estrada's Game Score today was -1, which is pretty hard to do. It's the worst by a Jays starter this season, and there have only been a handful of starts in franchise history that similarly managed to end up below water.

Estrada says his back has been bothering him, again.

I'm not surprised - his fastball seemed to be missing a tick today from the already missing a tick he had been doing over the past month or so.

I was at yesterday's game. My first Blue Jays game. I had a great time.

I hope Morales has fixed his vision's problem and will be better next year.
It seems possible, probably not likely, but possible.

Estrada always seems to get hurt when he's a possible trade target.
I'd trade for partial salary relief just to open a rotation slot.

There's a lot to figure out in the off-season.
They have too many players outside of 1B/DH.

I'm not sold on McKinney, but one of the 4 outfielders needs to be a left bat.
Having a right handed super utility guy who can play left field is a no-no unless one of the 3 starting outfielders is a left bat.
Also, Gurriel's defense still looks bad and McKinney had a bad route on a ball that Grichuk would have caught.

Tulo refusing to move off SS - what a great team leader - is it any wonder he has so many rings.

I was at the game today. McKinney hit the ball hard three times (spraying it opposite field twice) and drew a walk. He also had an excellent throw into third base which Diaz cut for some reason (the runnerlikely would been safe, but McKinney threw a rope and had the throw went through, it would have shown off the arm bette.) His gait,build and overall style reminds me a lot of Frank Catalanotto with a tick more power and throwing arm, which, if Jays fans remember, is a very useful player.

Other than that, Shafer looked OK out there today as well. Perhaps more higher leverage innings are in order to see how he responds.

Maybe Tulo will be our Player/Manager next year.

Great to see Morales having such a bounce back season. This FO has really emphasized a lot of the stat cast numbers (exit velocity, launch angle, barrels, etc) and it has worked out with Smoak and now Morales. I have no issues admitting that I wanted the team to move on from him at the beginning of the year but never upset when a player proves me wrong like this.

I'm not excited about any of those OF possibilities. Grichuk, I think is probably the best of the bunch, but the rest of the OF candidates all have significant flaws. Combine that with the poor season of Alford, and the continuing injury woes of Pompey, and it leaves me thinking the Jays need an OF very badly. I think Gurriel is likely the best answer. Given the abundance of infielders, even with nothing from Tulo, which is what I expect, and assuming no Donaldson, there is ample strength to get by without Gurriel. I like a lineup of Jansen, Smoak, Travis, Diaz, Guerrero, Morales, Gurriel, Grichuk and one of the 5 or 6 candidates for the other OF spot.

Morales has now produced .4 WAR in his nearly two year tenure. Morales is what he has always been, horrible start and current hot streak notwithstanding.

Smoak may be a different hitter - although it’s got nothing to do with any of those advanced stats.- he’s got a different strike zone control profile this year (and some BABIP luck). In most other respects he’s back to his pre-2017 profile. If he can maintain his current BB% rate then he stands a chance of keeping his head above water.

"I like a lineup of Jansen, Smoak, Travis, Diaz, Guerrero, Morales, Gurriel, Grichuk and one of the 5 or 6 candidates for the other OF spot."

Travis has a WAR of -0.3 over 300 PAs. He has a 0.4 WAR over his last 500 PAs. I am happy the Jays are giving him ABs now to try to figure out who he is but I don't know why I always see Travis penciled into the lineup next year. Right now, I'd much rather see Gurriel as the starting 2Bman and give those OF ABs to someone more interesting (McKinney, Pompey, Smith). Unless Travis starts to show much more, it's hard to see him on the team next year.

Statcast only goes back to 2015, but this is Morales’ best season in practically every category, in some cases significantly (barrel %, exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, hard hit %). He’s also walking more than he has before. He’s in his mid-30’s so it may not be sustainable but it’s not a fluke either. If anything, 2017 looks more like the outlier when just looking at the stats at face value. At the beginning of the year it looked like 2017 was the beginning of a downturn but that’s not the case anymore.

Smoak is clearly a better hitter now than he was pre-2017. Morales is producing similar to what he has in his career (looking at wRC+) but Smoak has been a completely different player.

Jamie Campbell put a major burn on Kevin Barker yesterday during the game. Campbell to Barker," So now Kendrys Morales has one more home run in 7 games than you had in your career." Barker groans.

I saw a Carrera jersey at the game. I didn't see any Travis jerseys.

Tulo not willing to move makes perfect sense. Where would he play if not at shortstop?
It makes not sense to burn years on Gurriel since he's on a long term deal.
Diaz is willing to play anywhere. I don't see a role for Drury. Or Travis.

This will be the year where Shapkins puts it's mark on the team. Even if they do nothing that will be them putting their mark. I fully expect them to use their prospects to trade for other assets we don't have but need. I predict they will go out and trade for a young controllable player by trading away quantity. Think of deals similar to the Archer or Yellich trades.

I don't think this management has a lot of confidence in its pitchers and regrets not trading a Donaldson for Flaherty deal. I would trade Bichete for a similar prospect that is SP or trade Biggio/Reid Foley/Alford/high upside pick (all together) for a controllable player getting expensive. I know someone is thinking "thank goodness you're not the manager," but to them I ask - if you plan on competingnext year or early 2020 and you don't have SP to sign...how do you plan to shore up the pitching especially with Stroman and Sanchez getting more expensive and less productive?

I think the roster looks like this at the end of April:

C Danny Jansen
1B Justin Smoak
2B Lourdes Gurriel
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Vlad Guerrero
LF Billy McKinney
CF Kevin Pillar
RF Randal Grichuk
DH Kendrys Morales

C Russell Martin
Ut Brandon Drury
Ut Aledmys Diaz
OF Teoscar Hernández

In this scenario Luke Maile and Devon Travis are in AAA, if not traded/released during the offseason. Otherwise the Buffalo shuttle crew consists of Richard Urena, Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith, Rowdy Tellez, Reese McGuire.


Depending on how the season plays out the August roster could look like this:

C Danny Jansen
1B Rowdy Tellez
2B Cavan Biggio
SS Bo Bichette
3B Vlad Guerrero
LF Lourdes Gurriel
CF Anthony Alford
RF Randal Grichuk
DH Teoscar Hernández

C Russell Martin
Ut Brandon Drury
Ut Aledmys Diaz
OF Billy McKinney

That said, I agree with Dalimon5 that the front office will likely try to make trades in the offseason to consolidate talent and improve the pitching, and possibly the outfield. I also expect free agent signings similar to last off-season's Clippard-Oh-Axford-Garcia.

The FO will definitely be trying to acquire young upside controllable pitching - very tough to do, may have to overpay. That's why I like the gamble on David Paulino & Hector Perez even though both have big red flags.

Having traded for Brandon Drury and endured the criticism that accompanied the deal, I think it's a cinch that Drury starts the season as an infield regular, most likely 3B.

For me, a big conundrum for the team is having a GB heavy rotation and not a single plus infield defender - a bad combination I'd like to see addressed - and the infield prospects coming are not regarded as plus defenders either.

Tulo not willing to move makes perfect sense. Where would he play if not at shortstop?

Lots of great shortstops have had to change positions later in their careers. Cal Ripken played his last five seasons at 3B. Alan Trammell started at 3B, 2B, LF, and CF in his last few seasons. Robin Yount became a CF. Miguel Tejada played 2B/3B in his last few seasons. Nomar Garciaparra became a 1B/3B in his later years...

Only the best of the best remain at SS their entire careers (Jeter, Larkin, Ozzie Smith) - and Tulo is simply nowhere near their level, having missed 545 games over his past 7 seasons, and having his on-field performance slip to league average levels both at the plate and in the field. I think Tulo has a greatly inflated sense of his own value at this point...

It will be very interesting to see how this is handled by the front office. They could call his bluff and declare that he's no longer the everyday SS, thus daring him to "walk away" from the $38 million owed to him. If you can't count on a player to play every day or stay healthy for an entire season, it makes a lot of sense for him to be able to play multiple positions (3B/2B/LF/RF) to increase your lineup versatility, especially in an era of 3-man benches.

the fact is if he's at all healthy tulo is still likely our best SS.

I like that April roster, Jonny. I prefer to see next year's team improve the outfield. Gifting spots to Hernandez, who can't field, and Pillar, who can't hit, would leave me wanting.

Could the Jays sign Vlad to a 4-year contract to get around to compromise on the Super-2 issue? If they can't do a 10 year deal, it seems like a reasonable alternative. It still leaves two years of control to agree a long-term deal or trade for the mother of all prospect returns. Plus we wouldn't have to endure the first 7 weeks of 2019 waiting for the chosen one.

I'm fine with Tulo at short next season if his heals are healthy.

Final thought - are any contenders in need of a DH/1B that might trade for Morales this week? He only has about $13m left on his contract; we could probably pitch in half of next season's bill.

hit submit instead of preview....my kingdom for an edit button!

I have not had the opportunity to hear Tulowitzki speak throughout much of his career -- I don't think there is a team I have seen play less than the Colorado Rockies. Given the reputation for humility I thought he had, I found it shocking for him to be so brazen in his most recent interview ("I'm better than everything I am seeing", etc.).

I don't doubt for a second that he believes that an off-season of rehab will have him back to being one of baseball's best shortstops in 2019, despite being 34 and despite having been in a demonstrable slide before missing a season and a half. And I don't doubt that Donaldson believes he can be as good as new in 2019 given some time to recover. That's just the way these guys are wired.

But what they believe is not necessarily the way things really are. And the front office is going to have to assess matters very soberly, in ways that players themselves cannot.

On a final note about Tulowitzki, it is my personal take that he believes that his achievements as a franchise cornerstore in Colorado have given him license to act in Toronto as if he has the same currency here. But I don't know that his comments are being heard by Toronto fans, media and teammates the same way they might were he still a Rockie. He is not a Toronto institution.

I'm fine with Tulo at short next season if his heals are healthy.

Some Freudian slop there! His heels have been his Achilles' heel(s). Have they healed? Can we now call them heals? Or do we need to use the past tense, healeds?

The FO, and a lot of other front offices apparently, seem to like Drury more than his numbers suggest they should, so I think they acquired him to start somewhere (3B being most likely).

The Tulo situation will be interesting to follow. It doesn’t seem like a Rogers or Shapiro practice to dump $38M for nothing. If they trade/decline the option on Travis and Solarte, they could try a lineup of Drury/Tulo/Gurriel from left to right and have Diaz as the super sub to cover everywhere in the infield. That’s still a little light on infield depth but might be able to get the team to May when Vlad comes up.

All we have is infield depth!

Travis and Urena are also available for the pre-Vlad period.

The Rockies really owe AA big time for getting out of that Tulo contract - understandable that Shapiro was unhappy with that deal - AA got the Ecstasy but not the Agony of that deal. If only AA had acquired Jose Iglesias along with David Price.

While it's tempting for us fans to talk about "cleaning up" or "consolidating" the roster and trading "quantity for quality", I really don't think the FO will go in that direction. In fact, I'd say that right now, with a roster of overloaded depth, is the first time they've actually felt comfortable with their jays roster, and now will be fine letting the depth pieces battle it out and hope for some breakouts.

I'd even go as far as to say that odds are at least 50/50 that they pick up Solarte's extension. I wouldn't count on them ditching any controllable assets with quality performance in their past like Travis, either.

I think we'd all be happy to see this next year, even if the team itself wouldn't be very good (with fangraphs projected wRC+ for rest of season / going forward):

3B Guerrero 133wrc+, ???war/650
RF Grichuk 106wrc+, 2.3war/650
SS Tulowitzki 101wrc+, 2.6war/650
C Martin 100wrc+, 3.4war/650
1B Tellez 97wrc+, ???war/650
2B Travis 97wrc+, 2.0war/650
LF McKinney 97wrc+, 2.0war/650
DH Hernandez 95wrc+, 0.6war/650
CF Pillar 90wrc+, 2.8war/650

UT Gurriel 90wrc+, 1.5war/650 - Drury 88wrc+, 0.5war/650 -- UT Biggio 88wrc+
OF Pompey 83wrc+, 1.5war/650 -- Smith 90wrc+, 0.7war/650 -- OF Alford 73wrc+
IF Diaz 99wrc+, 2.5war/650 ---- Urena 65wrc+, -0.2war/650 - IF Bichette 90wrc+
C Jansen 99wrc+, 3.4war/650 --- Maile 62wrc+, 0.5war/650 -- C McGuire 74wrc+

not much upside in that lineup but it is what it is.

which means we have to figure out what to do with these guys:

3B Donaldson 136wrc+, 5.1war/650
1B Smoak 118wrc+, 2.6war/650
OF Granderson 108wrc+, 1.8war/650
UT Solarte 100wrc+, 1.8war/650
DH Morales 112wrc+, 1.2war/650

Unfortunately i would guess that we likely lose the only plus player there in Donaldson, without much return. Smoak will stay deservedly, Morales will stay but less deservedly, while despite what everyone thinks I'm betting we're fairly likely picking up Solarte's option.

Alan Nathan on the physics of spin rates in THT.  Here's a (somewhat) related piece from Fangraphs in March. 

I want Morales to lead off tonight. Maximize the possible number of attempts to tie the record.

It is fun to have something to cheer for, for a change.

And the pitching:

SP Stroman 3.89era, 3.2war/32
SP Sanchez 4.40era, 1.9war/32
SP Paulino 4.54era, 1.8war/32 (steamer only)
SP Gaviglio 4.83era, 1.3war/32
SP Borucki 4.85era, 1.2war/32

SP Waguespack 5.04era, ???war/32
SP Pannone 5.08era, 0.7war/32
SP Zeuch 5.16era, ???war/32
SP R-Foley 5.44era, 0.0war/32
SP Perez 5.60era, ???war/32

they finally get a full AAA rotation of kinda-legit young talent, like they've been wanting since day one.

no need to bring this back I don't think:

SP Estrada 5.03era, 0.8war/32


they'll probably bring in a bunch of cheap vet arms to fight over these spots:

RP Giles 3.41era, 1.5war/65
RP Tepera 3.88era, 0.3war/65
RP Petricka 4.06era, 0.4war/65
RP Biagini 4.56era, 0.2war/65
RP Hauschild 4.52era, 0.2war/65
RP Mayza 4.51era, 0.0war/65
RP Barnes 4.56era, 0.0war/65

could be brought back:

RP Clippard 4.34era, 0.0war/65

I want Morales to lead off tonight
If he doesn't break the home run record he will certainly beat the slowest man to ever lead off record. Win/Win.

Ugly I see a lot of potential in the offence next season, and I see that optimism in the stats cast data. Personally I think until WAR starts including stat cast data is also is a bit of a lagging indicator than a leading indicator of future success.

When people talk about the dead weight of the Tulo deal, people often forget the Jays shed the dead weight of Reyes in the same trade. Reyes, at that point, had become a defensive liability and wasn't hitting particularly well (his second half, in Coors, was worse than Tulo's second half of 2015 offensively and defensively).

Also, your mileage may vary on whether this should be considered when evaluating the trade, but Reyes was arrested for domestic abuse that offseason and I think the Jays would have just eaten his contract, which is what Colorado did (and they ended up eating his final two years).

Tulo wasn't worth what he was paid in 2016 or 2017, but if 2018-2020 turns out to be salary that has to be eaten entirely by the Jays, it's only about $10 million more than what Colorado ate in 2016 and 2017 on Reyes. Given all of that, the Tulo trade isn't quite as bad as it's sometimes portrayed.

As for Morales, I thought he was toast and should have been released. I never saw this coming.

Sheryl Ring has a fine column in Fangraphs on minor leaguers and the MLBPA.

Well, after Reyes deal ended,Tulo still had $58M left on his contract (20,20,14,4 buyout) - that's not chicken feed. Of course, if Tulo is productive in 2019/20 that changes how the deal looks - every Jays fan hopes Tulo comes back and is productive but I wouldn't hold my breath.

It's interesting, when the Jays acquired Reyes and I give it a thumbs down because Reyes was very expensive and already a poor defensive SS - I was eviscerated as loving prospects too much & not wanting to spend money - same when the Jays acquired Tulo as I mentioned that injury concerns & contract caused me to give a thumbs down & I did mention that AA wouldn't have to worry when Tulo's contract became an albatross.

if tulo's deal is so bad, you'd think we'd have been able add a clear cut upgrade on him here now going on 4yrs after acquiring him.

Which team will take that contract?

I never thought Tulo would have much interest coming back to the Jays once it was clear that a rebuild was happening. I really think a return to the NL west with the Diamondbacks still makes the most sense if we eat the salary.

However if he is still with the Jays I expect he'll play 2/3 games at SS with Gurriel and Diaz getting the majority of the other reps in the middle infield.

I don't know if Morales would be the slowest ever.  I thought Cecil Fielder was used to lead off iirc in his quest for 50 HR but Sparky Anderson had him hit 2nd on the last day - he hit 2 HR to finish with 51.  I recall some other team using a very slow guy as leadoff due to a high OBP and a lot of controversy (in the 90's I think).  Can't recall who though.

I think slow and I think the Beeg Mon. He batted leadoff as late as age 35. Couldn't be any faster than Morales.

Donaldson to start his rehab tomorrow.

I'm optimistic about Tulowitzki. What do you want? You want him to go to the press and say "ah geez you know, Diaz and Gurriel are younger and better than me, so I guess I'll retire."

I love the guy's confidence, and while he shouldteeated carefully next season with plenty of rest, I don't get the "delusional" narrative.

Furthermore, to ugly's point about depth, I think the team is pretty happy not to just dump veteran guys like Tulo and Morales for nothing (which is what a lot of Jays fans want to do, it seems for cathartic reasons, I guess?).
2018 went bad because the bottom fell out of the pitching rotation, and younger guys like Hernandez, Pillar and Grichuk had long periods of slumpage and the depth wasn't ready on time (guys like McKinney and Gurriel are now here and ready). Get Happ back, add another dependable starter, shore up the bullpen a bit, let Vlad come up and mash, and stop this narrative of "playing the kids."

I should add Drury to the "depth pieces that weren't here on time."

It's just annoying to me we're not allowed to have Vlad in the majors at the start of next season.

I agree with Chuck. These guys are elite athletes and have infinite belief in themselves. Nothing wrong with that but the team has to make rational decisions. The issue with Tulo is twofold. First, he isn’t very good, he has 0 WAR over the last two seasons, has a WRC+ of 93 in the past three calendar years and will be 34 soon coming off a completely missed season. He looks done. There’s an excellent chance Diaz is better than him right now. Second, Tulo’s contract thankfully only had two more years. Diaz is under contract until 2023. So even if you think Tulo will be marginally better than Diaz which is a big if, why would a rebuilding team play for marginal wins? You need to play your long term assets to see what you have there or maybe to generate trade value if you don’t see them as a long term piece.

I don't know enough about Tulo's status to know how much confidence to have in his 2019.

If you take the positive side, he will work out all winter and arrive in spring training ready go and prove himself again, and he is a determined guy.

On the negative side, he is not ready to resume baseball activities now and won;t play this season. Maybe his rehab takes him into Christmas. Then he only has a short time before spring training to get used to playing ball again. Or, even worse, he could have some ongoing limitations that inhibit his ability to get back to where he was.

Marginal wins might not only apply to playing Tulo over Diaz, but might also apply to playing Diaz over Urena or Bichette.

Urena is still only 22, despite being promoted way too aggressively over the past couple of years and might still settle into and offensive asset at SS. Diaz might be a great super utility player, but maybe we should be seeing what is on offer for him in the offseason as well. Tulo could certainly bridge the gap to Urena/Bichette, which might mean Diaz is the one to move.

Danny Barnes and Murphy Smith have been called up. No word yet on offsetting moves but Shafer pitched three innings yesterday and Mayza has pitched in back to back games.

Urena has shown no indication that he is much of a prospect for a couple of years. He has been awful above A ball (54 WRC+ this year) and doesn’t have the defense to make up for that. He’s still young for his level so I wouldn’t give up on him, but he is nowhere near a decent major league player and Doesn’t look like a future major leaguer right now. If the Jays don’t feel Diaz is part of their future and want to trade him, that’s fine. I wouldn’t do it to get Urena playing time though.

the only guys who have shown they can actually play SS defensively are Diaz and Tulo.

Right now the (financially) smart move is to play Tulo to start 2019, then once he has proven himself healthy and productive trade him ASAP.  Bo might be ready by that point and Diaz will be around to take over if not.  Others I'd put in AAA/AA and force them to earn a callup if at all possible.

I mean, I know defensive stats are way too small sample at this point but Gurriel's numbers are SO bad there that it's hard to dismiss them completely - especially since the eye test hasn't been any kinder. And Urena's aren't much better tbh.

@SS

Gurriel: 158.1inn, -18.9uzr/150, -34.1drs/150
Urena: 244.0inn, -16.0uzr/150, -27.7drs/150

I mean I guess we might as well give them more looks there but they've been so terrible it's probably not going to give us much in the end. It's not like the eye test is telling us anything different.

Solarte 3yrs: 241.0inn, -3.9uzr/150, -5.6drs/150
Diaz: 2265.0inn, -6.8uzr/150, -13.1drs/150

Not great, but passable.

Tulo 3yrs: 1690.2inn, +3.1uzr/150, +8.0drs/150

Tulo's defense has slipped (all the way down to -2.3uzr/150 and 0.0drs/150 in 562inn in 2017, at its worst), but he's still likely by far our best bet defensively at SS.

Ugly, you may be making the mistake of thinking that Tulo can return to previous form at age 34 after missing a year and a half of playing time. Good for him if he can, but I think one has to be highly skeptical. And this does not even account for the possibility of a setback or another injury. And one has to consider what is best for the team in terms of the rebuild as well.

I love the guy's confidence, and while he shouldteeated carefully next season with plenty of rest, I don't get the "delusional" narrative.

I dunno, he could've just kept his friggin' mouth shut?

Gurriel continues to look like a 3B or LF to me, not a middle infielder. Those defensive metrics match the eye test. It also matches most of the scouting reports about his defence in the middle infield. Having said that, playing him in the middle infield for the remainder of this year would be a really good way to assess that one way or the other, so I'm all in favour of it.

Keep his mouth shut? How is he going to not speak to the media? That's not very pragmatic as a player. Tulowitzki is a veteran guy, who once was one of the best players in the game....he gets it. I thought his comments were professional, not delusional.

.@KeeganMatheson - "If Donaldson gets into the rehab game tomorrow, it's very high odds that he gets moved [before August 31st]. The Jays will do everything they can to move him."

Thanks, Peter. I saw that tweet, but sometimes it's really hard to tell whether these beat writers are hearing things or postulating.

Ugly, you may be making the mistake of thinking that Tulo can return to previous form at age 34 after missing a year and a half of playing time. Good for him if he can, but I think one has to be highly skeptical. And this does not even account for the possibility of a setback or another injury. And one has to consider what is best for the team in terms of the rebuild as well.

Totally get where you're coming from here, Peter. I guess I also think of the other side: apparently the heels had been getting worse and worse, and in 2017, both of them were a constant issue. Sounds to me like Tulo was maybe 50-60% "healthy". So now, he loses a step or two due to age, but if he's back to 95% healthy, that might make up for the loss due to age and end up with him productive. Especially because he hasn't played that much for the last 2 years, he might be a bit rejuvenated. It's not unheard of for a player to miss a year or two due to injury and come back and have a "good" year or two due to being able to rest. I'd take a 1.5-2 WAR Tulo (especially if it's due to good defense - we need some good infield defense!) for $20/year when that's already a sunk cost..How good would Diaz be at 2nd in terms of DRS?

In summary: I'm ok with the "wait and see" approach. It's not like we're going to win anything next year anyway.

Pure logic there.  If Donaldson can play well in September he is far better off if he does it for a contender.  As would that contender.  The Jays are best to keep playing kids and see what they have for 2019 and avoid the risks of a QO begin accepted and making the roster crunch harder.  I hate it as I'd have loved to see Donaldson play out his career here but that's life.

Keegan is quite reliable. I think it's likely that he has heard something. Of course, trying to move him does not necessarily mean that it happens. If he looks like he can play, probably it does.

Perhaps I should clarify on Urena two points:

1. He is young and may still be show some offensive ability as he did up until Lansing/Dunedin at age 19, prior to his rapid ascension up the ladder.

2. He and Tulo could form a reasonable option for 2019 as a bridge to Bichette and maybe eventually Smith, with only "marginal wins" being the cost. Under this scenario, Diaz would either be your super-sub, or traded for a reasonable prospect or two.

Does anyone need Donaldson? Trying to find a fit at 3B (and admittedly, my knowledge of other teams' needs may be lacking).

I'd expect a team like Oakland or Cleveland pony up a PTBNL for Donaldson and have an agreed upon escalator built into that prospect coming back (ie. if he blows out a tire again, it's a C level, if he makes it through the year, it's a C+, if he performs/lasts in the playoffs it's a B-level kinda idea). It benefits Donaldson to extend his showcase for FA into the post-season, the Jays get a lottery ticket and the acquiring team only gives up a player of value if he helps his new club in the playoffs.

Gurriel has played SS about 800 innings his entire career -even Diaz is over 4000.This includes Cuba, Dunedin, NH, AFL, Buffalo and the majors. He's raw and it shows big time. If we're thinking about contending next year, no way he should be playing SS. If not, I'd be OK with keeping it going as long as he's showing improvement.

Does anyone believe Jays are thinking of contending next year unless it's by accident as with Oakland this season?

Hopefully the message to Tulo is “yes you are our starting SS but we are going to sit you a lot in 2019 to keep you healthy and to give the other guys a chance to play”. Tulo positions himself so well at SS, that regardless of his age, the youngsters could learn a tonne from him, provided they are also allowed some playing time at SS.

In terms of the media interview- meh. I was initially a bit surprised by his comments but who knows what specific questions were asked. The media loves to position questions that lead to headline type answers...as anyone who has dealt with them will know.

Glevin, as far as Travis is concerned, I'm looking at what he has done up until the last couple of years, before he had the shoulder and knee problems. You mention that he has 0.4 WAR over his last 500 PA's. I would point out that over his 617 plate appearances in 2015/2016 he produced 5.3 WAR. He was a tremendous young player, who looked like a strong part of the foundation of the team. I'd be willing to give him another year to see if that's who he can be. The question is whether, at age 27, he has lost most of his playing ability. Since it's not typical for that to happen at such a young age, I'm inclined to attribute it to his battles with injuries the last couple of years, and expect a rebound next year.

If Travis can be healthy for a season then we would know if he can be useful long term.  I suspect he is high on the to be traded list though. Assuming someone offers something half decent.

I think Mark had the most likely scenario for Donaldson played out.

As for Gurriel I just really hope the team finds him a true defensive home at some point. Hopefully the reps at short and second turn into something, but I think he has all the tools to be a plus in center and follow a BJ/Melvin Upton path defensively.

I’m a believer in Travis (if healthy) and think he might be the only position player currently on the roster who is a reasonable bet to be even a 2 WAR player next year. But, I tend to agree with Glevin that we’re moving into show me territory for Travis.

Dan, there is a tendency with injury prone players to see the potential of a bounce that doesn’t really exist because injuri s get blamed for poor performance too much. This is the healthiest season of his career and also his worst. How much healthier can he get? Yes, he looked like a core piece potentially but the issue with Travis is that his excellent numbers from a few years ago were simply not sustainable. He had an extraordinarily high BABIP with a batted ball profile and speed that would never support it long term. I think he was probably a plus defender and is now a minus one but that’s something more likely to keep going the wrog way than to bounce back. He has a low BABiIP this year and I’d expect that to improve which leaves the question of what Travis would you expect going forward. His numbers are a little all over the place, but I think around a league average offensive 2bman with below average defense who is injury prone and doesn’t have positional versatility is the most likely scenario. I want the Jays to keep giving him PAs this year to see if he can recover something because there isn’t the infeld roster crunch time right now that there will be next year, but continuing to play someone who isn’t performing and hasn’t performed for a while every day because he looked good three years ago makes no sense.

Agreed, Nigel. If Travis is reasonably healthy next year, and puts up a sub-.700 WAR again, it's time to move on.

I think there is a greater chance that Gurriel is a 2 WAR player than Travis next season even with terrible fielding.

Right now the (financially) smart move is to play Tulo to start 2019, then once he has proven himself healthy and productive trade him ASAP. Bo might be ready by that point and Diaz will be around to take over if not. Others I'd put in AAA/AA and force them to earn a callup if at all possible.

Tulo has a full-no trade clause. It came into effect right after the Colorado trade.

Even if he returns and plays anywhere near his 2015-2017 self, he is virtually untradeable and he still has the final say.

I think I mentioned about a month ago that St. louis needs to unload Dexter Fowler this winter and I think Tulo would love to play in St. Louis - St. Louis would need to send enough money to offset the difference in contracts but I can see that sort of deal - Dejong moves to 3B , Tulo at SS.

I'm glad someone decided to impersonate UO after he left. Doing a very good job - I can hardly tell the difference. BB appears whole.

In an alternate universe, Atkins will just QO Donaldson and send out Gibby to manage an infield of Donaldson-Tulo-Travis-Smoak and, reasonably healthy, they'll combine for 10 WAR between them.

Alas we must move on and can't observe that outcome unless Cap and Ironman can get the Time stone back before then.

I hadn't thought on a PTBNL, but that would make a lot of sense.

Maybe that would work for Estrada too?

Gurriel's brother is at 1B and that might not be a bad place for him.
Maybe platoon with Tellez, share some time at DH with Hernandez, have the odd start here and there at SS and 2B.

It seems to me like Drury pushes Solarte out. The infield is crowded even without him and his lack of hustle is not what you want to see in a team full of young players. And he's starting to get expensive.

I think the Yankees set the standard for trades. They had many opportunity to trade some of their top prospects for pitching and they passed every time. The Jays cannot catch them if they trade their top just to pluck holes. Just think about the Michael Young trade if that helps.

"Just think about the Michael Young trade if that helps."

Well, it certainly helped Texas.

Archer was traded to Pittsburgh by TB. Miami traded Yelich to Milwaukee. Both trading teams were trying to save money.

Donaldson and C Sale were traded by rebuilding teams.

All the stars had years of control left. So we need to deal with those types of teams.

Both teams might have been trying to save money, but both players were auctioned and both buyers paid a hefty price.

The Pirates stood pat when they won 98, earned a wild card berth and were out because they didn't have an ace.
They have held on to their prospects since and they saw their window close.
So the owner finally decided to trade some assets, not to win anything, but increase attendance. Ouch.

The Brewers already had some decent outfielders, but they decided to unload prospects to get a really good one.
Since then, they've been trying to figure out where to play their excess outfielders.

Donaldson was a steal.

Sale was the best team in the division acquiring an ace to try an win it all.

Right now the Jays are too early in their cycle to sell assets for an established player.
They are still building their core. 2 more years and all the 2015 team will have been replaced.
Then you can make a big trade if that's what's needed.