Sure hope the McKinney call up doesn’t mean the end of Pompey.

Yes he’s only been in 45 games but has a 370 OBP, 11 steals and solid defence, all elements the Jays need. I can understand holding him back in August because of his limited playing time, but if he is held back in September it will be really disappointing. He still has the potential to be the lead off hitter the ajays sorely need, so let’s see what he’s got next month

Ugh. Can we jettison Buck and Pat soon? Listening to anyone opine that Lance Lynn is doing better because he's using his fastball more has no idea who or what Lance Lynn actually is - He's using his fastballs at about the same rates he was with the Twins earlier in the year, and significantly below his heyday from 2012-2015 with the Cardinals.

Also, I love this interview he did in 2015 where he's pretty explicit about his gameplan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5dvlF002mw

Calling up McKinney as a power hitting left handed hitter makes sense in Yankee stadium.

Pompey keeps getting hurt at all the wrong times.

The Jays seem to have a lot of players who hit around .250/.290/.440

Calling up McKinney as a power hitting left handed hitter makes sense in Yankee stadium.

That would be true if there was any chance that John Gibbons played him. Gibby is going to play the vets to the end. It's one reason why he's not the guy to be the manager after this year.

Yeah Dean starting Grandson over McKinney tonight makes no sense, regardless of what Grandson does at the plate tonight.

The Yankees need a right fielder, is that why Granderson played?

Even if they are showcasing Granderson, what's going to change playing him in one game? If he does well or goes 0-4, does it really matter at this point? He is what he is, and either a team will want him or not. The Jays won't be getting anything good anyway, in all likelihood. If they had to play Granderson, then they could have put him at DH and played McKinney instead of Morales.

It's only one game and things can change tomorrow. Hopefully it does.

Showcasing Granderson could help push them over the edge if they are close on it.  Players on the Yankees see he isn't washed up so they push for him, or they think he is and push the other way.

Isn't McKinney just here for a few days as a bench guy to replace Maile? It's not like he's a top 5 prospect who deserves to play every day.

In news from New York, Ross Atkins has gone on the record that Gibby will be the manager until the end of the season. Then, as always, his status will be reevaluated.

Then again, Osuna was going to be the closer when he returned. We know how that turned out.

With the small right field in Yankees Stadium, Granderson would fit nicely.

Osuna IS the closer.... in Houston.

Stroman's blister flared up again, Gibby says he will likely go on the DL.

Ross Atkins has gone on the record that Gibby will be the manager until the end of the season...

And the Pope is Catholic, and bears do their business in the woods. He says it out loud mainly because he's really tired of being asked about it every day.

Right but a new manager search will be very public and will not take place before the season is over.
It seems they would have asked Gibby is he wants to quit early of finish the year.
DeMarlo Hale would have been the one taking over and he's not considered a candidate for the job anyway.

Karma is a bitch for the Strowshow I guess.

Stroman trying to pitch unsuccessfully through injury has now become a thing this season. I’m not sure who bears the blame for that (player, manager, pitching coach, trainer, high performance department, management) or in what proportions, but it’s not a good look for any of them.

YES broadcasters:"It looks like they're going to try and run on Jansen a lot."

Yep.

Pat thinks Andujar looks good both offensively and defensively.
He's at -1.7 dWAR. There's rumours that the Yankees could try to sign Machado to play third next year.
Harper has lost a lot of shine and can't play center field.

SRF has trouble finding  the outside corner with lefties.
His fastball has lots of arm side run, so it should play nicely whenever he does.

Gurriel playing for New Hampshire tonight.

Houston down 7-1 in the 8th. The A's will catch them tonight and the Mariners are closing in as well. If Houston manages to miss the playoffs, there will definitely be mention of the Osuna Factor.

And Oakland has caught Houston.

While on the subject of exciting races, a win by Texas tonight pulls them percentage points ahead of the Jays in the race for the 11th draft pick.

If Donaldson clears waivers and comes back healthy...lets assume by Aug 31 he has other teams convinced he's back to peak form. What do you think the Jay's can extract for him?

The Jays will get more for making a QO to Donaldson than trading him. Teams aren't going to break the bank for 1 month of just injury recovered Donaldson. It would be hard to get more than QO compensation for 1 month of Donaldson even when he was in MVP form. In current state, no way.

If you're OAK you don't trade prospects for him to make a run? SEA before their window closes? If Houston is out of the playoff picture you don't think they pony up to repeat?

• Pick #31 - Greg Maddux  106.7, Jarrod Washburn  28.2, J.P. Howell  7.9, Kirt Manwaring  5.2, rest are sub 2 WAR. (54 picks, 20 reached majors so far)
• #32 - Dave Magadan 21.1, Lee Lacy  20.2,  Aaron Judge 12.9, Justin Thompson 12.8, Roger Pavlik 10.5, Dave Valle  10.0, 4 more between 5 and 9.9, 8 more positive WAR, 28 reached out of 54 picked so far.
• #33 - Mike Gallego 17.0, Dave Burba 16.4, Milt Wilcox 13.4, Brad Wilkerson 11.0, rest are sub 7 with ex-Expo Floyd Youmans the only one in the 5-9.9 range.21 of 54 reaching so far

If you're OAK you don't trade prospects for him to make a run?

Where would Oakland play Donaldson? They are more than covered at 3B and DH.

Given the new draft format, a 30-40th pick might be better now than 10 years ago.
I doubt a team would trade their best prospect for a month of Donaldson.

Consider the return for Machado:
Bannon, an 8th round draft pick.
Diaz, a Cuban ranked 70-80th.
Kremer, a 14th round draft pick.
Pop, a 7th round draft pick
Valera.

So, no. I don't see a top 100 prospect coming back.

The only problem I see with the QO is that the Jays don't need Donaldson at 3B.
I couldn't find restriction on trading a player who accepted a QO. I'm sure there is some.
Also, Donaldson might have limited interest in rebuilding his value on the Rogers turf, especially if Gibby is released.

Rather a moot point with JD. Only 11 games left till the postseason deadline and he hasn't even started his rehab. Chances are almost non-existent teams will think he's both back to peak form and is unlikely to have his injury re-occur.

I'd be shocked if the Jays offered JD a QO.

My friend hypobole, please wait until teams pass the jays before noting the good news - Texas lost last night - if the Jays can get a pick above Atlanta's #9 pick that would be sweet.

Sorry, 85bluejay, my *waiting* tool is a 20 on the scouting scale. Yeah, that 8th spot in the draft standings is the best case realistic goal.

And with a tip of the cap to Dave Laurila, here's an astrophysicist's discovery... as to why Stroman and Sanchez have had blister problems.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2018/08/90dbd2feeec2-feature-astrophysicist-baseball-aficionado-expounds-on-mlb-blisters.html

It's true OAK has no use for JD. But I think HOU would give up a Tucker type top 30/40 prospect for a WS shot this year and season tix renewals.

We really did get screwed. If JD was healthy he could have been packaged with an undervalued Osuna for Forrest Whitley.

Hard to find contending teams with franchise changing prospects that have some question marks.

I want to go on record saying Reid Foley will be our best pitcher next year IMHO. I haven't seen this much talent in a pitcher in TOR since Halladay and Drabek. Of course I think SRF will end up closer to the former...like nowhere near as good just closer to him than a bust like Drabek.

Justin Shafer promoted, Pannone up to start in Stroman's spot. No word yet on who is going out for Shafer but I assume its Santos.

dalimon5 - good way to point out the risks of pitching prospects - Halladay and Drabek.  The extremes of how good and how bad they can be.  From HOFer to a scrub.  Kyle actually played in the majors up to 2016.  179 2/3 IP but just an 81 ERA+  This year is his age 30 season and he has thrown 2 innings in the Mexican league in 2 starts allowing 11 ER.  Ouch.

I believe with the new CBA the comp pick for Donaldson will be after Competitive Balance Round B, so somewhere in the 70's. The only real benefit to that is increasing the amount of money the Jays can spend on the draft overall.

I don't think any team is going to trade a top 100 prospect (even 1-for-1) in a deal for one month of Donaldson, especially since there won't be enough time to evaluate whether he is healthy enough to even be productive.

Just take the comp pick. If the Jays don't give him the QO at all due to fear that he will accept it, or trade him for scraps to avoid the QO situation, then that would be terrible, to put it mildly.

Once right health wise, I don't think Donaldson will fall off a cliff. They will offer him a one year qualifying offer, one that he will accept. He's a player that will still give you 25-30 HRs and 80-90 RBIs.

Big news of the upcoming off season...Blue Jays sign Bryce Harper :)

The QO is just a sandwich pick - around 30-40th overall

I think the pick would be closer to #80. They don't receive revenue-sharing.

Imo, Donaldson will be traded shortly after returning to action. Atkins hinted at that very strongly in an interview last week and Jon Heyman suggested yesterday that a trade was indeed the plan. I don't think he will receive a QO even if not dealt this month. The Jays are prepared to move on.

Just take the comp pick. If the Jays don't give him the QO at all due to fear that he will accept it, or trade him for scraps to avoid the QO situation, then that would be terrible, to put it mildly.

The only reason to give him a QO is to trade him sometime next year. That's a lot of money to pay for a potential return - or none at all if he has another DL year - and I can't see it as even remotely justified. Which prospect do you think is coming back in a trade for 33 year old Josh Donaldson, who is worth $18 million? Seems kind of absurd to me.

It's much more likely in my view, particularly given the attendance slide of this year and next, that the money just comes off the books.

I have a hard time imagining a destination for JD given how little time he'll have to showcase his health in the next 12 days. Most of the playoff-bound teams seem strong enough at 3B to not need to roll the dice that a very rusty JD can somehow find his game back and contribute. I guess Cleveland could move Ramirez to 2B and open up 3B for Donaldson. But who else has to plug so large a hole that they'd gamble on an unknown, which is what Donaldson virtually would be for the balance of this season.

One rationale that the front office might have in wanting to trade Dondaldson (I don't see the resultant "prospect" being the rationale) would be to forego the potential off-season PR hit of not offering Donaldson a QO. If he ain't here to make the offer to, problem solved.

I'm confident that once JD starts a rehab (if he ever does), the Jays will try very diligently to trade him & for scraps if that's the best offer (Cleveland most likely) - anything to avoid the possibility of having to offer him a QO & the negative PR of not offering a QO - that's why Drury is here, to keep 3B warm until THE VLAD arrives.

If Vlad is the player all the experts expect him to be, why not hit JD in front of Vlad next year? My hunch would be that anyone who hits in front of Vlad next year will have a lot of fastballs thrown their way.

Ah, forgot about those revenue sharing picks ComebyDeanChance.  However, checking this years draft the compensation for loss of a free agent were picks #31-35.  Competitive balance were #36-43.  So the compensation picks were before the revenue ones.  In 2017 they were #28-30 (Jays got Pearson with #28 for loss of Edwin).

The enitre philosophy/argument for Shapkins thriving in Toronto is that they aren't constrained to a small market team like Cleveland so they can do trades like taking on Liriano's salary for extra prospect capital.

If they don't trade Donaldson for a decent return or offer him QO I will be very bitter about this front office. You have a guy who's been top 5 in baseball WAR for 2015/2016/2017 when healthy and you guys don't think that:

1) a team trying to win the WS won't offer something decent or better than a 60-70 pick in the draft equivalent? JD has been out 3 months it doesn't mean he forgot how to swing a bat...jesus if Aaron Judge is out for another month will the NYY fans be questioning whether he can find his form and contribute to the playoffs? If Sale sits out the balance of the season do you think Boston Red Sox fans will be wondering if he will be able to contribute to help the team win?

I get that he has missed time and played sub standard because he was injured but he was elite. If he comes back healthy it's a no brainer. Healthy is healthy and any team that believes he is healthy will bank on a track record of 500-600 games over a 3 month window of DL stint this year or playing hurt last year which he more than made up for upon his return. People here have too short a memory.

2) It's not worth offering him QO in the offseason? That's insane. This guy will cost you money that is being saved by money coming off the books elsewhere. This guy is an asset. This guy can be traded for prospects or help to make the team...I don't know, WATCHABLE for the millions of Canadian baseball fans that actually prefer entertainment and excitement to their games.

I've got some sad news for some dreamers. Vlad will not be top 5 WAR player next season. If anything he will hit in front of JD or Smoak next year.

dalimon5, you're going to be bitter about a front office whose farm system was just ranked #3 in the game by Baseball America?

Would be happy if the Jays got anything for Donaldson. He has been hurt all year and hasn't played very well when he's been healthy. A team trading for him will see him healthy in what, three games? Best case scenario for me is Cleveland giving up a couple of lottery tickets. The QO used to be a big thing because it meant a first round pick. Now you see talking pick 75-80 probably and that's if he declines. If he takes it, you're basically spending 18m hoping that he's good enough to be flipped in June for good prospects which is no sure thing. Better all around if they can deal him.

A Front office who has a top 3 system and doesn't want to surround/bridge to that system with top 5 players already on the existing team. Yeah I will be bitter about that. Why am I spending 12K a year to watch fill ins and what confidence should I have that Diaz/Drury/Travis/Pillar will lead the new prospects arriving? Makes no sense if you have a market that can support a 160$ million dollar budget.

Why do you think the Rays can't survive in Tampa Bay. It's simple, fans don't care how good a farm system is if it's going to be wasted without any other method of quality product on the field.

Dalimon, I was going to post something similar, but you've said it better than I could. Not offering JD a qualifying offer would be terrible.

Didn't we just sign Kloffenstein a consensus first rounder in the third round this past June?

If you offer JD a QO you get:

1) "potential" of JD to play like he has the past 3/4 years if he accepts
2) extra draft pick if he declines
3) Ability to trade him next season or keep him and look for a Bautista type signing following season

I would be inclined to offer Donaldson a QO, but he's nothing like Aaron Judge, who has played 255 games in 2017 and 2018 and is 26 years old (not 32 y 8 m). Josh has had chronic calf issues the last two years, and he's added a shoulder injury into the mix this year. No one knows how many games he'll play next year and at what level of performance. He's arguably a good gamble at 1/18, but based on last year and this year, he could easily end up playing 50-60 games and post around 1 - 1.5 WAR.

If past accolades guaranteed future performance despite injuries, teams would be falling all over themselves to trade for Tulo. Sometimes the pendulum shifts, and that's just the way it is. There will always be people who take a while to adjust to the new reality.

Perhaps Jays don't want JD in the clubhouse? Atkins has suggested a deal could happen while he is still playing rehab games.

The bad thing about the QO is that the Jays would get a pick after the second round, so 70-80th.
The good thing about the QO is that it doesn't matter how much Donaldson signs for.

Donaldson needs to go through waivers.
I believe he needs to be off the DL first.
Right now, Cleveland would have first dibs, but that could change.

I think greenfrog has the right perspective, and I'd offer the QO as well. However, the FO has better medical info than we do as to the likelihood of the calf issues actually being chronic.

Kloff wasn't a consensus 1st round pick.

Greenfrog, I'm swayed. I must admit I overlooked the shoulder injury from the beginning of the season.

The point about Kloffenstein is that there is quality for QO draft pick compensation.

I agree we should off QO but also that it's very possible for JD to put a sub 2WAR season for next year and therefore a sunk cost if he accepts the QO in that scenario.

If you're going to spend that $19M plus on another star, then sure, don't qualify Donaldson. But if you don't, then you don't give up an asset for nothing. If you want fans to come out next season, he's got to be in the lineup (fan fave).

To be fair, the fans in Tampa Bay don't even care wren the Rays ARE good. They just don't care.

The enitre philosophy/argument for Shapkins thriving in Toronto is that they aren't constrained to a small market team like Cleveland so they can do trades like taking on Liriano's salary for extra prospect capital.

If they don't trade Donaldson for a decent return or offer him QO I will be very bitter about this front office. You have a guy who's been top 5 in baseball WAR for 2015/2016/2017 when healthy and you guys don't think that:

Couldn't agree more. Since the FO botched the timing on peak value for JD, I think best case scenario is that the QO is extended (no brainer), he somehow doesn't sign a more lucrative offer and he comes back and rehabilitates his value with a hot start.

Of course, this would also require clearing out the log-jam of potential lineup spots (1B, 3B, DH - Kendrys needs to be gone at a minimum).

Shi Davidi was on one of sportsnet shows the other day and said that the Jays might not qualify Donaldson, because he might accept. I think it's crazy they think him accepting is a bad thing. There's an article about it on bluejaysnation https://bluejaysnation.com/2018/08/17/apparently-the-jays-are-worried-about-giving-josh-donaldson-a-qualifying-offer/
If he accepts the QO then he's on the team for just one year..they're better for it, and even if they don't contend, they can make the trade next July they wanted to make this year. If he turns it down then at least they get a pick, but if they don't even offer it they'll get nothing. I don't get the point of that. The QO is probably going to be in the $18M range, so it's be less than the $23M they're paying him this year anyway.

A QO is a no brainer unless the injury is so bad that it is likely that he never plays baseball again. If he turns it down, you get compensation which is worth more than most teams would offer for nearly anyone for 1 month. If he accepts, you are not sunk, as a 1-year deal is never a disaster, even if he's bad. And he's not likely to be bad. He'd be paid like a 2 WAR player, and if healthy, it is quite likely he'd be at least that. Here's his career WAR numbers as a reminder:

2012 1.5 WAR in less than 1/2 season (3.0 WAR rate)
2013 7.7 WAR
2014 7.5 WAR
2015 8.5 WAR
2016 7.6 WAR
2017 4.8 WAR
2018 0.6 WAR in less than 1/4 season (2.4 WAR rate).

At 1 year ~$17.5M he only needs to be worth about 2 WAR, and that seems exceptionally likely (3-5 WAR seems like a fair expected range).

Plus, if he accepts and is good you can trade him next year, likely for more than you'd get for him right now.

Not making a QO (or trading him for less than a turned down QO gets in compensation) would be crazy unless you are convinced the injuries are effectively complete career enders.

If you're going to spend that $19M plus on another star, then sure, don't qualify Donaldson. But if you don't, then you don't give up an asset for nothing. If you want fans to come out next season, he's got to be in the lineup (fan fave).

I don't think it matters whether Josh Donaldson is in the lineup if the team isn't playoffs bound. People didn't buy tickets to see Roy Halladay. They didn't buy tickets to see Roger Clemens. They didn't buy tickets to see Carlos Delgado. The only time they buy tickets is if they believe the team may be headed to the playoffs. No one really believes Josh Donaldson makes any difference to that next year. I think the FO will have a fairly good idea whether anyone else will sign him. If no other team is prepared to give up a draft pick to sign him, I don't expect, or want to see, this team offer a QO.

The one thing I know for sure is that the decision to make JD a qualifying offer or not will be made on financial grounds not baseball ones. The home run for management would be to make him a QO and for him to decline. They can then market the heck out of having tried to sign him just as they did with EE’s offer. If they are afraid of him accepting then the calculus will be whether signing JD offers them $19m in marketing value or not. I would guess that that’s pretty close to a coin flip. I actually think that they will make him the offer because, otherwise, I think that they will have trouble making a $100m payroll. I think there would be too much marketing backlash if they cut the payroll below $100m.

I think the decision whether to offer a QO will be based on a mix of:

(1) Donaldson's excellent past performance, (2) the fact that $18-19m for one year isn't much of an outlay in today's market, and (3) acceptance or decline could both have advantages for the organization,

offset by

(4) injury risk, (5) performance decline risk, (6) Guerrero Jr. is waiting in the wings as a full-time third baseman, (7) the team already has a DH under contract for 2019 in Morales (plus other players that will need to be rotated through the DH slot), and (8) there might be better uses for that $18-19m.

How all that shakes out in terms of the ultimate decision, I'm not sure.

If the Jays offer the contract to JD then he accepts. No other team is going to guarantee him more than $18M. Just look at the last two off seasons.

I agree that the QO/Donaldson issue is likely 100% financial. I'm not sure why any org would be upset at a worst case scenario of having Donaldson back on a one year deal unless it would cause a significant payroll issue. The other alternative is the FO is not expecting Donaldson to ever be healthy/good again, which I guess is possible, but hard to determine until we see him on the field again.

If Cleveland is willing to trade a couple of Samad Taylor's for Donaldson, then I'd be OK with that, but trading him for scraps to avoid a one year deal next year is just compounding the wasted value. At least a pick in the 70-80 range could turn into something, or it bumps the draft budget up which might help with going overslot in an earlier/later round. Wasting that opportunity to save $18M (or whatever the QO will be) is a Cleveland Indians move. Not picking up Solarte's option and trading Pillar in the winter saves about $10M right there. Work around it in a worst case scenario.

"If the Jays offer the contract to JD then he accepts."

That's more possible now than it was a month ago, but if he's back on the field in September with no setbacks, then he might feel confident that he can get a deal somewhere else in the winter even if it's not the mega deal he was expecting.

Taking a pay cut on a one year deal to head back on the market a year from now at age 34 and play another season on turf when his lower body is already a major issue doesn't really benefit him at all. The only way he takes the QO is if he feels he has no choice. I think some team will gamble on him even with a QO attached (very short-term deal) but age and health is not on his side.

If he has one more setback in his rehab and doesn't come back until mid September (or doesn't come back at all) then at that point he's probably taking the QO.

For Donaldson normally it is best if the team doesn't offer a QO as then there is no compensation for signing him.  However, how would other teams take it if the Jays, who have a top 15 payroll and can afford a top 10 easily decide a recent MVP isn't worth the QO?  Have to think the other 29 teams would wonder just how bad Donaldson is hurt.  At the very least he'd have to go through tons of tests from anyone else, most likely a 1 year deal with an option is all he'd get.

Or other GMs would reason that the Jay's don't want to block Vladito.

If I'm the GM and JD is gone then I'm trading Smoak for pitching and bringing up Tellez to share time with Morales. I'd then find a way to get rid of Stroman and Sanchez since they along with Smoak give me the best shot to trade for controllable quality pitching. I view SRF/Borucki as amazing 4/5 starters.

Then I trade Travis and Pillar for whatever I can get.


OR...

I bring back Tulo/JD for 2019 with Happ/Sanchez/Stroman/Boruki/Reid Foley as starters, call up Vlad, call up Biggio, call up Tellez, use Morales when necessary.

LF - McKinley/Hernandez whoever wins the job
CF - Grichuk
RF - Gurriel
SS - Tulo
3B - Vlad
2B - Travis/Biggio whoever wins the job
1B - Tellez/Morales
C - Jansen
DH - Josh Donaldson

Bench - Diaz, Pompey, Russel

Gurriel is 2-5 with a home run today for New Hampshire.

The only time they buy tickets is if they believe the team may be headed to the playoffs.

The history of baseball in this town suggests you are absolutely, 100 percent right. People in this town don't come out to see players, they come out to see the team win. Whether Donaldson is here, whether they gave him a QO or not makes no difference whatsoever.

So... is this year's squad going to be just the second Jays team since the Expansion Days to lose 90 games, and join the boys from the Season From Hell in the annals of infamy? They're currently at a 72-90 pace. Can they manage another 18 wins and avoid such a fate? Hey, they've got 6 games left with Baltimore, 3 with Miami. On the other hand, the 10 games with Tampa Bay might be an issue.

Ah, forgot about those revenue sharing picks ComebyDeanChance. However, checking this years draft the compensation for loss of a free agent were picks #31-35. Competitive balance were #36-43. So the compensation picks were before the revenue ones. In 2017 they were #28-30 (Jays got Pearson with #28 for loss of Edwin).

John, the QO picks for teams like Toronto, who don't receive revenue sharing and who haven''t exceeded the luxury tax limit, come after the Competitive Balance B picks. This year that started at #75. Nate Pearson was selected under the rules for the last CBA.

So to bring this into focus, the best outcome for offering a QO is a pick around #80. A QO is going to be in the area of $18 million. If JD takes the QO, they pay $18 million having gambled to win a pick around #80. 'Then they have to hope they can trade him for prospects worth $18 million. I don't think that's a gamble that any responsible executive would take, unless they were certain that another team would sign him or certain that he won't take a QO.

One thing in favour of making the offer that I hadn't considered earlier, is that there may be no way that JD takes a QO in Toronto to play again on turf when he is trying to increase his marketability. The team may know very well that he wouldn't accept for that reason, and make the offer.

The rest of the season will tell us something. If he can't be traded, and indeed can't even come back this year, I find it hard to believe they would touch him. If he comes back and continues to put up a .750 OPS like before he went off, I don't think they should make the offer either.

Can they manage another 18 wins and avoid such a fate?

That would be, what, 18-20 in the final 38 games? Seems a stretch. Can they go 16-22, at least, so Gibbons doesn't fall below .500 as a major league manager? That might be doable.

I think Infamy is pushing it a bit. There's 5 teams in the AL with a worst record.
What's the adjective for Baltimore?

"Hey, they've got 6 games left with Baltimore,"

Actually have 9 games left vs the O's - 3 at home, 6 in Baltimore.

One factor to keep in mind is that the Jays could contend for a WC spot in 2019, with the emergence of Vlad, Bo, SRF, Borucki, Jansen, Gurriel and others. Donaldson, if he accepts the QO, might be useful in that regard.

The gamble with the QO depends on what else they plan to do with that 18M, which is 5M less than they are currently paying Donaldson. They could use it to resign Happ or its equivalent, but there's no guarantees they find anyone they like. Or it may be that Rogers has already set the payroll parameters for next year.

The loonie is down and so is attendance, so expect payroll to drop as well.

A QO is a no brainer unless the injury is so bad that it is likely that he never plays baseball again. If he turns it down, you get compensation which is worth more than most teams would offer for nearly anyone for 1 month. If he accepts, you are not sunk, as a 1-year deal is never a disaster, even if he's bad. And he's not likely to be bad. He'd be paid like a 2 WAR player, and if healthy, it is quite likely he'd be at least that. Here's his career WAR numbers as a reminder:

I view it through the WAR lens as well. Why let 2 - 2.5 WAR (conservative range) walk out the door for zero asset return? You're right that if the injury is much more serious than is being reported or career-altering, you don't take the chance, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

The other thing to consider is how barren the Jays' payroll will be in 2019. Yes, Tulo and Martin are albatrosses, but with $70M committed there's going to be tons of room to 'flex' some of their budget (such as it is) to take advantage of situations just like this one, where you can trade money now for prospects later. Unless they plan on letting team payroll slip to 2012 levels (~$97M - climbed to ~$130M the next year), I don't see why they wouldn't take a couple of shots like this; sure beats the potential upside of flipping relievers-for-prospects at the deadline.

Payroll link for reference: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/2019/

I think Infamy is pushing it a bit.

Higher standards around here. :-)

They could use it to resign Happ or its equivalent

They could also use it for stadium renovations. That's assuming the money is even there. If it's an expenditure beyond any revenue source, then it's an expenditure that simply won't be made.

I can’t help but think how often I’ve heard — even as recently as a few weeks ago — about how the Leafs will never succeed because fans keep buying tickets regardless of their performance. I heard the same argument (the Perils of Unconditional Support Theory) repeatedly about the Cubs when I was living in the US in the time before their championship.

One would think that the corollary to the P.U.S.T. would be that Jays fans behave optimally in terms of motivating their franchise to succeed — raucous sellouts when they win, conspicuous empty seats when they lose. Jays fans are nailing it! Right?

But no, the P.U.S.T. was always ignorant crap. Perpetual sellouts fuel investment and turn teams into juggernauts when they figure things out. And success-contingent attendance simply leads to spirals of losing and cost-cutting until the team somehow rebounds.

All that being said, I do wonder about the Jays’ strategy of raising prices again for what will be another 90-loss season in 2019, given everything we undoubtedly know about what sells tickets in this market.

Rogers, if they were smart, would see the logic in rebuilding (with a substantially lower payroll to cover declining revenue) since fans in this city have made it perfectly clear that with baseball they will only support a winner. Rogers having a requirement to be perennially mediocre makes no business sense at all. Neither does increasing payroll at the absolute worst times in terms of the team's competitive cycle (after 2004 and after 2012 to name two examples that leap out at me), and not increasing it when it does make sense (2014 when the team was leading the 2nd WC on July 31st but couldn't increase payroll to add help).

It's an ownership group that cares nothing about baseball and everything about the bottom line, but have no clue how to get from point A to point B. If Shapiro can't convince them to change then it really doesn't matter who the team president is now or 10 years from now. Just have to hope the FO is successful at building a great young core and hopefully ride many years of success off that without having to accelerate winning before they are ready for it to appease ownership.

Both the Leafs and the Cubs show that unfettered smart management is the most crucial aspect.

With Texas and Cinci both winning there is a virtual tie for the 8th, 10th, 11th playoff spots. Mets won again and are only 1/2 game back.

Yes, good news with the wknd. results - let's hope the jays don't ruin the good news with a series win against the Orioles.

All that being said, I do wonder about the Jays’ strategy of raising prices again for what will be another 90-loss season in 2019, given everything we undoubtedly know about what sells tickets in this market.

My seats went up a puny 1.4%. From $5470 to $5550. Given the falling dollar and inflation, that's a constant dollar decrease. Which seats are you taking about?

Some news,

Ticket prices aren't going up by much if at all.

The Rogers Centre is getting an overhaul behind home plate 3rd level. Media booths will be moved and a premium VIP lounge for VIP ticket holders will be constructed with leather seating and the like.

Another thing -- the vibe I get around the Rogers Centre is that employees and management legitimately feel like "the kids on the farm" are ready and will transform the entire major league club. Wishful thinking I think.

"I view it through the WAR lens as well. Why let 2 - 2.5 WAR (conservative range) walk out the door for zero asset return?"

Because if Donaldson takes the qualifying offer it means that he doesn't think he can get a better contract elsewhere which means that it will immediately be a negative-value contract. He will have to improve to have any value. Mike Moustakes is a 2.1 WAR player this year making $6.5M. The return for him was Brett Phillips and a 35 FV 25 YO relief pitcher which is pretty underwhelming. The return for Donaldson at similar production would be less because he'd be making 3X the money and is older and now has an extensive injury history. Spending $19M hoping to land a 40 FV prospect is a ridiculous way to spend money.

Not to mention, that Donaldson would be taking ABs away from someone the Jays want to look at. Is Drury a future starting 3Bman? I don't think it's likely but this is exactly what rebuilding teams need to do. Give players they think can succeed a shot. Not pay massive amounts to give 33 YO ABs hoping they'll have a little bit of value they can flip. (It's why I'd like the team to move on from Morales, Solarte, and maybe Pillar as well.) That being said, if Donaldson comes back and has a 160 WRC+ or something the last month, they'd have to give him the QO because he certainly wouldn't take it.

Have they abandoned the idea of putting grass in at the Dome?

Huge issue with drainage, prohibitively expensive to solve.

That's what I figured
Think they could do ot for the price of a qualifying offer?

Last I remember the issue with grass renovation is that most of the plumbing or water lines that feed the southern part of the city run underneath the Rogers Centre so those residences would lose power or water during a portion of construction. That sounded like gossip when I heard it from an employee. Doesn't seem to make sense to me with all the other buildings in the area that have gone up around the dome with new parking garages.

Who do the Jay's sign in this upcoming offseason? Would anybody drop a contract offer for Eovaldi, Harvey or LeMahieu?

Is there anyone else you see?

I'd still be willing to bet on Harvey.

By renovation, I wasn't meaning conversion to natural grass That's unlikely to happen. The only way that happens is if they tear down the entire building. By renovation I meant the continuous process of trying to update a now 30 year old multi-purpose building to try and make it like a ballpark.

I don't really see the point of trying to add DJ LeMahieu to the 2019 Jays. There are plenty of under 30 options in house for the keystone position between Gurriel, Drury and Travis with Biggio starting next year in AAA.

If the Jays look to be competitive from Day 1 of the Vlad show then I would try and sign AJ Pollock as I generally don't see a lot of quality in the outfield depth.

AJ Pollack would be a great signing

What kind of $/term for Pollock?

The Jays are not signing Pollock. He'll be expensive, is almost 31, and would almost certainly take an overpay to come to a rebuilding club. That's a signing you make when you're on the cusp of winning, not in the middle of a rebuild. I have no idea what the Jays will do because I think they will. Make trades to clear out room. They will need to Sign pitchers for sure and they don't need infielder for sure. I can see an of. Right now, Grichuk is the only OF lock I think. Mckinney will get a look too. I can seen Pillar being traded easily and Hernandez seems more like a DH. They could give Pompey, Alford or even Gurriel time there too. If Pillar isn't traded, they don't have any OF or If need. Just a couple of relievers and a starter or two. The roster is really in flux. Very few people are safe which is the way it should be with rebuilding clubs.

Not only will Pollock not be signed, but neither will there be any FA signings for more than one year imo and likely very few of those. Jays will likely target a couple of young controllable pitchers via trade using a combination of vets like Pillar and Travis plus excess prospects as bait.

That makes a ton of sense PeterG.  As much as we'd all love to see the Jays knee deep in the top free agents realistically they will be doing what they did this past winter.  A few trades, the best of which we won't know were good until mid-year next season or later.  I see a few AAAA types signed to fill out Buffalo and NH so the kids don't need rushing.  If the Jays are at 500 by the end of 2019 we should be happy as the Jays are probably targeting 2020 now and seeing 2019 as the year they figure out the kids for the OF and IF.  I expect at least one of Smoak or Morales to be traded, maybe Martin (doubtful as he can play 3B/1B/CA and even SS)

The Jays are not going to sign any significant free agents. The Granderson, Garcia, bullpen reclamation projects type of off-season last winter is likely a blue print of what we will see this winter, with some trades for Grichuk/Diaz/ Drury types.

I would imagine the FO is trying to wipe the slate completely clean (only Tulo is a bad contract signed beyond 2019) in preparation for 2020 when they should in theory have a lot of cheap young players occupying big league spots. Once those players show that they are a piece or two away, then free agency becomes a more sensible route.

From Keegan Matheson:


#BlueJays 3rd-rounder Adam Kloffenstein made his pro debut today in the GCL. The 17-year-old threw one scoreless inning with a walk and two strikeouts (both looking).

Gaining prospects for an often injured veteran player may not be a good transaction if the prospects are the focus of the trade. History in 2009: Brandon League and prospect in Lansing Johermyn Chavez who hit 20 HRs that season for Brandon Morrow. Is Chad Spanberger the Johermyn Chavez of 2018?

Well I think there is a difference between what the Jays will do and what I think the Jays should do. I agree that its likely a boring, uninspiring group of veterans on one year contract that hold the fort until the young players are ready.

Hopefully they can do some damage through the trade market similar to Grichuk and Diaz to fill in some holes in the outfield and rotation.

These are the younger outfielders I could see the team pursuing, and other teams potentially moving on from for different reasons.

Joey Gallo (TEX)
Chad Pinder (OAK)
Byron Buxton (MIN) or Jake Cave (MIN)
Ian Happ (CHC)
Scott Schebler (CIN)
Brian Anderson (MIA)