Fangraphs has ranked all of the prospects traded since the Machado trade from #1-65.

According to their rankings, the Jays acquired:
5: Brandon Drury (I wouldn't call him a prospect)1
13: Forrest Wall
14: Hector Perez
18. Billy McKinney
31: Chad Spanberger
49. David Paulino
57. Corey Copping
62. Jacob Waguespack

I have to admit that I’m not really a fan of any of the position players acquired on that list. However, I do really like the upside/lottery ticket aspect of the arms.

It would be interesting to see a list of prospects the Jays would have received for the same players plus Donaldson (but minus Oh and Axford) had they been dealt in the off-season. This was perhaps an adequate return in the circumstances, but much worse than it should have been in better circumstances (healthy and productive players and no criminal charges).

The 25 man roster will sort itself out tomorrow or the day after. Tomorrow is a day game.

We traded ML players for B Drury and a lot of AA and AAA players. They will start arriving in Buffalo and NH. No promotions for Lansing and Dunedin players I guess.

I think that they are out at least 3 B grade prospects just for Happ and JD. It’s a huge loss but it is what it is.

One of the leading team on Donaldson last winter was St-Louis who would probably have included an outfielder like Grichuk.

Aren't the Jays still on the hook for like $8 million for Donaldson? $4 Million after Aug 31?

If he comes back he can still be traded by Aug 31st to the first contender willing to claim him for $4million +.

We can still get a good return if any contender trades for him especially if there is significant injury to a 3B of a contender. Heck, I can see a Donaldson trade to Boston for considering DD wants to win championships that have eluded him. I didn't realize it but Boston has ZERO prospects in the top 100. Either take Jay Groome or Devers as a centerpiece.

I'd probably run Donaldson through trade waivers tomorrow, since there's nobody that's going to claim him for $8M without even seeing him in a rehab game, or knowing when he'll be back. That way, he's clear to trade wherever for the whole month. If for some weirdness sake, he doesn't get through, he was never going to get through.

"We traded ML players for B Drury and a lot of AA and AAA players."

Ken Giles is a major league player, even if he WAS in AAA for Houston.

Apparently you can't run a player on the DL through waivers until they start their rehab assignment.

David Schoenfield at ESPN turning a once-hyped prospect of ours into a worst case scenario.

"My other view is I don't see much evidence that Meadows is a future star....Sure, he could still turn into a star, but he could also be Travis Snider."

I'm not sure I totally understand the "we should have done much better by dealing all these guys in the offseason".

I guess in hindsight it could have been wise to tear it down before this season, but a lot of smart people thought there was a decent chance the Jays could be in contention this year. And everything has gone sideways (basically, outside of their prospects, Happ, and maybe the odd RP, each player has performed worse than career averages). If this team as constructed had played to their abilities, and had more luck on the health front, it would have been a different year. Also, I know everyone though the Sox and Yankees were going to be good, but this historically good pace is outside the realm of "likely result" as well.

I'm not too disappointed that the franchise decided it was better to give it another go for the playoffs, and then when it didn't work, pivot then, rather than trashing the whole year on the outset. This organization has been through too many non-playoff years to justify nuking another year when you had a chance to go for it. It didn't work out, and most unfortunately JD got really hurt. But I'd prefer to have given it a shot with a roster that looked like it could be competitive, rather than just strip it down at the outset.

I've warmed up on Wall quite a bit since that deal, since the more I look, the more I'm concerned about our OF prospect depth.

I feel the same way Jevant. I forgot about K Giles he is a ML player.

I wonder "how" bad ownership feels about the 2017 and 2018 seasons? In regards to the financial results. TB ownership demanded that payroll be reduced. What will ownership do regarding the payroll level for the Jays in 2019?

Don't think anyone is expecting the Jays payroll to do anything but go down.

I'm assuming that 2019 is going to be a developmental year, so if they want to spend a little less in 2019 with the expectation of a payroll boost for 2020-2021, I'm pretty okay with that.

My hope for the offseason this year would be to sign a bunch of guys to 1-year deals you can plan on flipping at the 2019 deadline, or to make a deal for a cost-controlled guy who helps you more long term.

I assume we haven't seen the end of the roster turnover. Would be somewhat surprised if guys like Pillar, Travis, Smoak are all on the team this time next year.

Huh. I hadn't noticed that rule about trade waivers before (I haven't stumbled on a suitably official and trustworthy comprehensive breakdown of the rules yet), but it makes sense. I guess I'll amend it slightly to be first day of his rehab stint - the key is to keep him as unknown as possible and with as much outstanding money as possible at the time he goes through.

Who are these "smart people (that) thought there was a decent chance the Jays could be in contention this year"? Vegas had the Jays over/under win total at 81. It's true that Boston and New York are playing better than Vegas' annual inflated numbers for them, but everything would have needed to fall perfectly in line for the Jays (and gone poorly for other teams) just to have a chance at competing for a 2nd wild card.

That being said, as a seasons ticket holder I would have been disappointed if they gave up before the season started. I am not convinced the return for Happ would have been materially higher than what was out there now, and the Donaldson situation may yet turn out in their favour if they can get him back on a qualifying offer.

92-93 "smart people", I don't know. LV over/under at 81? So you win at 82 and lose at 80? I know it is complicated. I believe that the 81 moves around if 90% of bets are on 1 side. They are experienced in understanding math.


I don't mind getting a lesson on odds making. It should be a popular topic.

Here are the FG pre-season playoff odds.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta=

Jays with the best odds for the 2nd wildcard.

Well, on paper the starting 5 looked pretty good. Who knew that it would be worse than last year? Add an "upgraded" MI and plenty of wishful thinking (a repeat season from Smoak, bounce-back year for JD etc).

Happ
Stroman
Estrada
a healthy Sanchez
Garcia

I expect them to keep some vets or those clubhouse meeting after playing horribly would become completely pointless.

They are not going to sign anyone with a draft pick compensation attached.
They could consider a starter, but that depends on what the rotation looks like in September.

Alford should dictate when trading Pillar and Tellez when trading Smoak.
Travis might not have a lot of value. He just needs to stay healthy for a while.
Solarte should be traded and that might be viewed as a payroll cut, but he doesn't really profile as a UT player.

The Phillies traded for Loup and designed their lefty Zac Curtis for assignment.
He has an ERA of 1.86. 10 Ks, 10 BBs in 9.2 innings.
I'm not sure Loup is an upgrade.

On paper the Jays were probably a team capable of 80-85 wins. The increased depth improved their floor, but ultimately they couldn't afford to lose Donaldson, Osuna, or any significant SP (Stroman/Happ).

They certainly had a shot at a 2nd WC prior to the season. No one expected the M's and A's to have the types of seasons they are having. Whether that was worth not selling off pieces earlier is a different story, but they likely did not have much of a choice either with Rogers running things.

Considering how rare it is to see a top prospect traded nowadays, I think we would have been disappointed with the trade return for Donaldson and Happ even if they were moved in the off-season. The real miss was not trading Osuna earlier, but hard to predict legal issues. Three years of Osuna without the legal baggage likely would have gotten a huge haul. The veteran rentals, even for one full season instead of 2 months, I'm not sure it would have been radically better. Hard to say without knowing what was offered.

That's correct bpoz. Vegas' win totals are certainly impacted by the betting action, but they provide a good overview of expectations heading into the season.

Thanks hypobole. I have no idea how Fangraphs comes up with their playoff odds, but on a quick glance the Angels and Mariners numbers look too low.

Fangraphs/BP/etc. Most baseball analysts seemed to suggest a 84-86 win season, which if things break right gets you into the playoffs.

Thanks to all for the LV odds making inputs. The over/under is a moving target.

I always fail at finding the site and article referenced in various conversations. I am ok with that. So lets do some cherry picking but minus 1 key fact.


Pittsburgh. I am going to assume their winning % was under .500 due to trades of G Cole and A McCutchen. Due to a better than expected record they became buyers. C Archer. So now in theory/expectations they have committed actions to consciously move the win number expectations. LV is probably not upset because they are experienced. But the under bettors are negatively affected. Maybe pissed a little.

One other thing is that if things had not gone so wrong and we were in contention, the farm system had plenty of pieces to upgrade problem areas - much more than a team like Seattle.

You could also go back and look at the pre-season predictions thread.

"I'm not sure I totally understand the "we should have done much better by dealing all these guys in the offseason".

Good post Jevant. It was a risky year but I think it was worth taking one more shot for the reasons you outlined. The FO was smart to avoid trading prospects for one year "win now"vets.

Thanks for the look back at the predictions thread Gerry. Fun !!!


My 88 wins looks very wrong. I predicted a great April as a joke. It was correct, but I lost so many posts that I don't know if it got posted.


The 1st Hi Light of the year was splitting the 4 gm NYY series.

The rotation was more like
Sanchez
Stroman
Happ
Estrada
Garcia

"The real miss was not trading Osuna earlier"

There's a lot of this sentiment, but I'm not sure it's warranted. Because of reliever variability, most teams think they have a decent closer - or at least a few good relievers, one of whom will have a good year and be that closer - and that's reasonable for many teams. It's only mid-season that teams come to realize they have a weak bullpen, and a weak closer. I'd be surprised if off-season reliever trades work out better for the selling teams than the deadline deals.

Pittsburgh stands at 56 - 52, 3 GBL for the second Wild Card berth. Atlanta, Colorado and L.A. Dodgers are basically tied for the 2nd WC just 3 GBL for the 1st WC. With about 54-55 games left to play, it’s still too close to call. Pittsburgh (J.A. Happ’s pre-Jays’ team) acquired the best Starter available who just happened to have at least three years of term left. Was that their biggest need? Considered what the other teams did.

The main difference between the Jays and Pittsburgh is a healthy Team, something the Jays don’t have. In fact the main difference between the Jays and all Playoff Teams is a healthy Team, something the Jays haven’t had the last two years. If the Jays were as healthy in ‘17 and ‘18 as they were in ‘15 and ‘16, they would most likely have been Playoff-bound.

Trading top talent in the Offseason opens more opportunities for a deal, but term is always a factor. That limits any return, but sometimes Salary relief means more. Having an in-house option to fill the void doesn’t limit what came back. That’s something Pittsburgh had that the Jays don’t.

Right Richard SS. Throw in good health and a couple of career years and any team looks better than it really is. Also a favorable lopsided 1 run win record does wonders.

I think Richard's point is that aside from 3-4 teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, world champ Astros and Milwaukee...theres no other team that is better than the Jays all things considered.

LV over/under at 81? So you win at 82 and lose at 80?... I believe that the 81 moves around if 90% of bets are on 1 side... I don't mind getting a lesson on odds making. It should be a popular topic.

I'm not a gambler and don't know for sure how this all works, but I would assume that LV wants even amounts of money on both sides (i.e., unders and overs) to mitigate the risk of a disproportionate payout.

So if 90% of the money is on "OVER 81", then the market is telling LV that they, LV, have set the cutoff too low (again, because they want only 50% of the money on the OVER). So LV might then move the cutoff to 84, say, now hoping to get a bunch of "UNDER 84" bets to offset all the "OVER 81" bets. I imagine there is still a disastrous middle ground for LV, like 82 or 83 wins exactly which is both OVER 81 and UNDER 84.

Again, just speculating here. I'm sure others here have first hand knowledge of how this all works.

I'm sure Jeff Luhnow, who's already being criticized harshly for dealing for Osuna, really appreciated Osuna's lawyer's words today outside the courthouse. Asked about Luhnow saying Osuna was remorseful, the lawyer Domenic Basile said: “I think he’s the one you might want to ask what he meant by remorseful. I can tell you that my client is not remorseful of being guilty of any criminal activity.”

The Astros are planning on hiding Osuna on the road to start with, avoiding the hometown reaction to his first appearance. He'll be at AA first.

Meanwhile for his legal strategy, Osuna's gf is now in Mexico, so this seems to be the same Jose Reyes strategy of keep the victim away from the courts. That would have really played well in Toronto. The media would be skewering him and rightly so.

For those that were asking in the other thread,

Tulo came to the Oakland series to hold a players meeting and call some players out for not playing hard enough according to Kevin Barker.

Donaldson brought the attitude to the Jays. Tulo brings the leadership. Russell Martin is Canadian. I know which guys I'd keep around for the re-tool.

Tulo hasn't exactly been playing hard enough lately either.

Jon Heyman's take on the Jays at the deadline:

Blue Jays: Toronto was handicapped in its sale by the injuries of superstar Josh Donaldson and the slumps of Marco Estrada and Jaime Garcia. But the Blue Jays made the most of what they had. The trade of banned closer Roberto Osuna has to rank as the trade of the year, if not the trade of the decade. To get three live bodies, much less talented pitchers, for Osuna, is nothing short of a coup. Beyond that, Forrest Wall, who came in the trade for Seung-hwan Oh, can really hit. Under the difficult circumstances, it’s an A.

I wonder how that went over, the guy on the side of a milk carton calling out teammates.

I mean, that's what the lawyer is going to have to say if he's pleading not guilty. But yeah, over to you Jeff...yikes. Somehow Luhnow looks worse now than he did yesterday, if that's possible.

Yup, he's been resting on his but completely healthy.

Aaron Judge hasn't been playing hard lately either.

Madison Bumgarner hasn't been playing hard for 90% of the season.

AJ Pollock never plays hard for more than half a season max...

Sanchez and Stroman haven't been playing hard...

My god...Donaldson has been dragging his feet the most!!!

Paul D try harder next time...you can't play hard when you can't play. Look at the trophy case...

"I Know which guys I'd keep around for the re-tool."

that's easy - none of the 3 you mentioned.

Tulo brings the leadership. Glad to hear Tulo took some time off from counting his money in Florida or Vegas or wherever he has been all year to lambaste the guys who are actually participating. Some teammate.

I must say, I don't understand hating on Tulowitzki for an inability to play. We all remember he's hurt, right?

Since when did it become cool to rip on players who aren't even able to play because they are injured? Especially when they are injured because of playing the sport we are asking them to play and excel at?? I mean, if you want to shred Madison Bumgarner for dirtbiking and wrecking his shoulder, I guess that's one thing, but we all watched Tulo's ankle explode on live television last year.

Critique players all you want for lack of hustle or whatever, but unless someone can point to something that suggests Tulo is at home with his feet up not trying to get healthy, the comments here seem offside.

"I wonder how that went over, the guy on the side of a milk carton calling out teammates."

Well who would you have preferred hold the meeting? Instead of the most accomplished major leaguer on the team? Let's play a game Hypobole...take your pick. Would you rather have....

Osuna..the guy who's face is in a mug shot?

Donaldson...the guy who won't be here in a few weeks?

Sanchez...the pitcher that's younger than most players and dealing with blister issues?

Stroman...the "face of the franchise" that whines when he doesn't get the right amount in arbitration or who "likes" rumors on twitter sending him to Atlanta?

Estrada/Granderson/Clippard who won't be here in a few weeks?

How about Teoscar who can't play defense?

Gurriel who can't slide....

Travis who can't hit, field or stay healthy...

I know! Let's call up Vlad and have him hold the meeting! Yeah! Good idea!


""I Know which guys I'd keep around for the re-tool."

that's easy - none of the 3 you mentioned."

85blujay...come up with a 25 man roster that doesn't include Donaldson and Tulo that's better than one with them that will also keep you from complaining that Rogers doesn't spend enough to rise above mediocrity.

Some posters are a bunch of stat head fantasy baseball know-it-alls. "Yeah! Let' get rid of Martin and Donaldson and Tulo, and Morales too. Lets shed all of that salary AND bring in more kids not old enough to drink in the province! Don't worry about the outbreak of young major league players killing themselves in racing accidents, snorting cocaine and driving their boats into rocks at 3AM, beating their girlfriends/wives, perpetuating hate crimes on twitter...who cares because they will get me points this week in my head to head match ups!"

There is NO team contending that doesn't have a player of Donaldson or Tulos calibre that went through lost years, down years but has come back to be an integral part of the core of that team. Time for some posters to start looking at other possible informative sites other than the following:

fangraphs
rotoworld
yahoosports
baseball america
MLB Pipeline

"I must say, I don't understand hating on Tulowitzki for an inability to play. We all remember he's hurt, right?

Since when did it become cool to rip on players who aren't even able to play because they are injured? Especially when they are injured because of playing the sport we are asking them to play and excel at?? I mean, if you want to shred Madison Bumgarner for dirtbiking and wrecking his shoulder, I guess that's one thing, but we all watched Tulo's ankle explode on live television last year.

Critique players all you want for lack of hustle or whatever, but unless someone can point to something that suggests Tulo is at home with his feet up not trying to get healthy, the comments here seem offside."

Amen to that.

Jevant, Not Tulo's fault he's hurt. Players have shown a lack of hustle.

But having someone who hasn't been around all year suddenly show up criticising teammates who have, usually does not go over well with said teammates. Right or wrong that's human nature.

I'm not hating on Tulo, but I find it very strange that someone who hasn't played all year shows up to get on the case of the guys who are actually playing.

With his contract, Tulo's on the team the next 2 years unless we take back another onerous contract - if he stays, I'll bet the "Great Leader" will not go quietly when he is usurped by a younger player.

Usurped by a younger player. We are probably in for some drama.

It's not criticising Tulo's injury status to say I think it's very difficult for a guy who's been out all year to have a meeting calling out players and expect a positive response.

"I'm not hating on Tulo, but I find it very strange that someone who hasn't played all year shows up to get on the case of the guys who are actually playing"

I have to agree; that would not sit well with me either. I would add that, while freak injuries are a part of the game, well-paid athletes should be expected to be in shape and ready to play. And rightly or wrongly, my impression is that there was a lack of that this year. I'm not a doctor, and I don't know if it was possible to have another surgery while Tulo's ankle was healing, but if his foot problems were long-term issues, could they not have been dealt with at the same time, when he was already out for the season anyway, instead of waiting until spring training? Maybe, or maybe not, but I wonder.

And, again, rightly or wrongly, I wasn't impressed with how both Stroman and Donaldson showed up for spring training and immediately ended up with sore arms. Seems to me they should have either been doing some throwing before camp to loosen up the arms, or start more slowly in camp. I can imagine both of them, being very competitive, showing up and throwing bullets when they weren't ready, and ending up hurting their arms. I didn't get the impression either of those injuries were structural. They looked to me like sore arms from throwing hard when you aren't ready to do so (which happens to me pretty much any time I play catch now). We have no way of knowing if any of that was true, but that's what it looks like to me. And if so, I think that's an issue. These guys were major pieces that were counted on, and they may well have wrecked the team's season by being unable to play.

And I should mention, that for Tulo to leak that info. to the media (Barker) tells me it's all about Tulo - I hope Tulo comes back next year and has a great year because the Jays need it but he left Colorado on a sour note and he's not impressed me in Toronto as a great leader especially saying he's never moving off SS.

Whatever was said at the meeting, it certainly hasn't lit a spark. Jays are being outscored 20-3 in the series.

I think the only negative thing I can say honestly about Tulo is the following:

1) he was selfish to play injured for the Blue Jays in 2016 and 2017 to try to fit the narrative of "next Cal Ripken" that surrounded him. He sacrificed his hall of fame trajectory and his value to the blue jays in those years by believing he could play through injury

2) Now he's going the opposite direction and trying to be 110% healthy so he can salvage his career when he returns.

If you look at Pedroia and the surgery he had, it's similar in the amount of rehab and healing that's necessary. He came back too early and now he has to sit out longer.

If you look at Greg Bird with the Yankees he has had the same surgery as Tulo with bone spurs in one foot, not two. He came back too early and has looked terrible.

The only guy I've seen come back from injury and look okay (but still playing through injury) is Daniel Murphy.

Tulo is maybe selfish for capitalizing on the opportunity he has with this crappy team to sit out a bit longer, but it's for sure to try to make his value stronger in 2019/20.

If he returns and is a sub 3 WAR player then i'll be the first guy on here looking to move Tulo off SS and/or off the team, but right now he has great numbers when playing healthy and slightly to above average skills when playing hurt.

"Osuna's lawyer, Domenic Basile, said Wednesday that his client is remorseful of the circumstances of the situation -- which include being traded and a 75-game suspension -- but plans to plead not guilty."

So Osuna seemingly is remorseful. He's remorseful of being arrested for beating his girlfriend, just not remorseful of beating his girlfriend.

tough crowd in here today. Ragging on Tulo, Stroman, Osuna etc. Good time to forget about baseball till the playoffs.

I'm not giving Tulo a hard time for being hurt, but I do think it remarkably poor form for a guy who's watched this team from the comfort of his living room all year to fly in and put the team on blast. I don't know who is responsible for making sure Barker had all the details, but there are two plausible scenarios here: either he did to aggrandize himself, or somebody else did because they didn't appreciate hearing it from him.

Dalimon, I hope you're right about Tulo healing properly and coming back stronger next year. And I guess at this point, it doesn't matter if he shows up this year. Might as well see what they have in Diaz, Gurriel, etc.

I agree with you on the Hall of Fame though; I think his odds of entering have fallen dramatically since the trade. Tulo reminds me more of Nomar than Jeter - a very good player, but without the durability to be among the very best.

Tulo has spent most of his time living away from his home in Dunedin rehabbing. He's been running in an under water treadmill for most of his rehab and now is doing everything on the field similar to Josh but not 100%. I don't know if people realize that besides blowing up his ankle, he had portions of his bone removed and not in one foot but both. They literally cut into the bone and removed the spurs that were distorting his feet and preventing him from putting full weight on some parts of his feet the past 2 years. Regular turn around time is 6-12 weeks "OR WHENEVER THE BONE MENDS." You can't fault a guy for sitting at home when he can't speed up the bone healing process and more importantly, he's not sitting at home.

I read back in June that he had to cut his field work short every day (less than 15 minutes) because his cleats would be soaked with blood from the surgeries. I don't think some posters understand that he can't physically play baseball any sooner.

Bone Spurs are not like plantar fasciitus where it's annoying. It's very painful.

BONE SPUR SURGERY:
http://www.southfloridasportsmedicine.com/bone-spurs.html


I actually have similar view that some posters have for Tulo, but for Donaldson. He clearly could be playing or DHing but wants to sit out until 100% to maximize his value over the winter. His injury is a muscle injury that will be re-ocurring.

There's virtually zero chance that Tulo can return to his Hall of Fame track. The 2.5 years in the wilderness for him have costed him that. If he returns completely healthy then he will likely be (in my opinion) 75% of the player he was in his prime after factoring decline. That's still a roughly 3-4 WAR player though, but again, not nearly enough for Hall of Fame unless he gets some World Series and a long run of 3-4 WAR for 6 years. Zero chance.

Troy Tulowitzki will return when he can. If before September, that would be amazing. The surgeries he’s had corrected problems that were pre-existing in 2015, 2016 and got a bit worse in 2017. In 2018 he discovered he must have the surgeries.

Age is relative, but everyone ages differently. A 100% healthy could easily reprise his 2015/16 time with the Jays and be acceptable or better defensively. Why? When he returns he will be healthier than he was in 2015/16. Most people will not agree - that’s fine, it’s just one possibility.

I fully expect the Jays to put a large portion of the Team on revocable waivers as soon as possible. Anyone who clears can be traded, but might not. Anyone claimed can make an offer for the Player. The Jays can accept/negotiate the offer, give the Player away for nothing or recall the Player from waivers. This is one way to find out what your Players are valued for future trades.

tough crowd in here today. Ragging on Tulo, Stroman, Osuna etc. Good time to forget about baseball till the playoffs.

You're a member of a tough crowd if you make statements critical of someone who has served a 75-game suspension for the domestic assault of his partner and the mother of his child, for which he is facing criminal charges, and for which there appears to be recognition within the baseball community that the charges stem from an incident that appears to fall somewhere towards to the more severe end of the spectrum? If that's what is considered being part of a tough crowd, I'll accept the characterization.

I fully expect the Jays to put a large portion of the Team on revocable waivers as soon as possible. Anyone who clears can be traded, but might not. Anyone claimed can make an offer for the Player. The Jays can accept/negotiate the offer, give the Player away for nothing or recall the Player from waivers. This is one way to find out what your Players are valued for future trades.

AKA, how revocable waivers work and standard operating procedure for basically every club in August.

Yeah, I shouldn't have included Osuna in my comment.

Most Players will try to play through some level of discomfort to some level of actual pain before admitting to injury. I think most people are somewhat like that. The only problem with doing that is that sometimes the injury is aggravated, occasionally severely. It caught up with Troy Tulowitzki this year. It might also have caught up with Josh Donaldson as well. I remain optimistic about recoveries but not as many do.

Players play hurt all the time. Trainers are aware in almost all cases. Usually just a matter of how much pain the player can tolerate.

As far as I can remember, this year has been the biggest trade dumping the Jays have done since 1998. And that was much different in terms of return (hopefully) and immediate results.

Traded: Myers, Sprague, Phillips, Guzman, Stanley... and sold Pat Kelly.

Return: Brian Lloyd, Scott Rivette, Leo Estrella, Shannon Carter, Nerio Rodriguez, Jay Yennaco, Peter Munro.

The only major league time any of them had: Estrella pitched 4.2 IP for Jays, and had a (brief) career total of 72 IP; Rodriguez: 72.2 career IP (10.1 for Jays); Munro was most "successful" 120 games (40 starts) over 5 years, 4.88 ERA, 81 IP for Jays.

The others typically had a year or two in Jays' minor league system, very little time even at AAA.

No long-term gain from those trades, but clearing the decks (eg getting Canseco out of the outfield, Fernandez off second) was the big gain. Ended up with the most wins of the entire playoff drought-era, and perhaps came closest to making the playoffs.

After that of course, back downhill...

Should have avoided using Sale too since he's a big step ahead of Stroman and/or Sanchez at this point (top 5 in Cy Young voting for 5 years in a row)

Nothing strange there at all. Tulo is a product of baseball culture, a vet who has risen through the ranks and command deference. I actually find the news very comforting.

They Yankees lost another game to Baltimore. The 3B coach was sent int the dugout to yell at players after the game.
Much better to have a 5 time all-star who intend to lead the team next year do the talking in private.

OK, replace Sale with, say, Price who has had his share of injuries and a full season at this point is no longer expected.  2.3 WAR, losing 1.1 instead of 6.4, losing 3.2 so add 2 wins back pushing Boston from 63 to 65 wins.  Still fighting for that 2nd wildcard instead of running away with the division title.

"If he returns and is a sub 3 WAR player then i'll be the first guy on here looking to move Tulo off SS and/or off the team, but right now he has great numbers when playing healthy and slightly to above average skills when playing hurt."

Tulo hasn't had great numbers since the first half of 2014. He'll be 34 next year. He isn't the same player he was 5 years ago. He's not any better than Diaz at this point and is probably worse.

I don't expect Tulowitzki to return at all. Nor is there any 'moving' him. Toronto got left holding the $20 million a year 'Tulo Bag'.

I made the suggestion earlier assuming Toronto doesn't end up with Donaldson next year on a QO, to use that money in 2019 that would have gone to Donaldson, to buy out Tulowitzki's 2020 salary at the end of 2019. That means that next year they would have to pay Tulo $20 million not to play again, and other $18 million for him to leave, but it would clear the books for 2020 of this expense rather than dragging it out through 2020. On the other hand, there's a reasonable chance that 2020 will have better attendance than 2019 as the minor leaguers graduate, so maybe they'll prefer to pay him out in 2020.

I expect Tulo to be back. He's too stubborn to quit but between his age and missing a year of action, I don't know how effective he'll be. Bo Bichette will probably arrive by late next season or in 2020 so Tulo's contract might not be the only problem. He might be blocking the shortstop position which he reportedly won't move away from.

It definitely seems that health is a big issue. When it happens to other teams they will lose more.
We discussed this in the off season. I am not too surprised by our results.

I hoped for many trades this deadline. There were more than I expected. We now have a lot of players. The bench may be full of ML regulars for the rest of the season.

He's too stubborn to quit

And there is the little thing of still having 38MM coming to him if he doesn't quit.

I think I'm in the greatest disagreement with the tone here (and in other posts) of "comfort of his living room". I am pretty grateful I'm not going through the injury rehab that Tulo is right now. Having been through significant injury rehab in the past, nothing is further from the truth of "comfort of his living room." And I was trying to return to sitting at desk, not being a professional elite level athlete.

If anyone is reading that and thinking "yeah, I don't want THAT guy talking to my team about leadership"...well, I just don't understand you.

Tulo is clearly a baseball lifer and is exactly the sort of guy I'd want leading my team.

He could accept a bench role and still make his full salary. Your point is poor.


2014 was actually the last fully healthy season from Tulo. Hip surgery year after that. Back bone Crack from Pillar same year (played through it's and won the TEX game for us). 2016 and 2017 played through one severe bone spur and a second developing bone spur.

I've got a nice long list of the posters hating on TT that I will roll out once he comes back and stops trying to hit 30 bombs. He will go oppo once he has full mobility and will hit 270 to 280 with an OPS over 800. He's still the fittest guy on the team even at 34.

Jevant, I couldn't care less personally about Tulo's comments. But I do feel they would not be appreciated by the guys in the room as much as if he had the same chat when he was actually playing. And the criticisms may not have been appreciated at all.

As an analogy, if some worker off on disability for a year went back to his workplace and started criticising the effort of the guys who were on the job, how would that be received by those co-workers? I highly doubt it would be a positive reaction. Hey, maybe I don't know human nature as well as I think I do, and maybe some would take the comments well. But I think I'm right on this one.

He also played with a bad hamstring pull through 2017 which some think contributed to his ankle injury...again by trying to play through it.

I don't know if anybody has actually seen Tulo before TOR. Elite bat speed. Elite discipline. Home or away. He looked more like Gurriel than EE/Donaldson.

I think he changed his entire approach at the plate because he thought it would be easier to play through injury by guessing pitches/pulling the ball/taking a walk but the AL East was too good for that and the whole thing got worse.

He's not Reyes, he doesn't need to age gracefully he just needs to be able to put full weight on his legs/feet like every other major leaguer.

If David Wright could be healthy he could still play.

If you want to hate on Tulo for being extremely fragile...nobody will argue with you...but don't slag the guy for not trying or playing hurt.

Hypo, you're wrong. You paint Tulo as some regular worker at same pay/level/experience/talent as everyone else.

Revise your example. If a worker with the best record of work production over a 10 year span is at home injured/disabled and comes to work to try to motivate everyone I think that the workers being criticized who are all or mostly all under performing and making mistakes - those employees would look bad for not accepting the advice of the elder. On top of that this employee is returning soon, has the highest salary, has one of the most important positions in the company and when not rehabbing at home for the company always outworks everyone in commitment/time for the company, the likes of which haven't been seen since Roy Halladay. You're way off.

Nobody has answered my question of who would be in a better position to call the team meeting players only.

"I think I'm right on this one." That's probably the same mentality of Teoscar, Solarte, Stroman etc all.

but don't slag the guy for not trying or playing hurt.

Has somebody here done that? Or is that being conflated with a second argument, where people are challenging the appropriateness of Tulowitzki criticising teammates despite not having been around for a few months?

To me, these are two entirely separate arguments.

Chuck,

The answer to your question is available by simply scrolling down or up in this thread. There's multiple under currents of this plus multiple overt, point blank criticisms of it, not to mention the rest of the "we don't want Tulo" posts.

Have you read yesterday's posts?

3rd try for the posters criticizing Tulo coming off his rehab to talk to the team (we have no idea what was said).

Who would you think more appropriate to hold a players meeting than Troy Tulowitzki?

I have read the posts but my take is that arguments have been conflated from the very start and continue to be conflated.

Did he have a right to say what he did to his teammates? That's a valid point of contention.

Is he likely to play again and if so at a level that helps the team? That's another valid point of contention.

Is he lounging around, taking it easy, not working to get back into playing shape? I'm not sure that this is an argument anyone is making, but is somehow the argument being refuted when the prior arguments are being discussed.

Good post Chuck,

I see and will disagree with those that don't think Tulo will come back valuable and as a leader, but I won't disagree with your post as I agree that there's two or more points/issues of contention all being wrapped into one. Certainly, pretty much everything with Tulo right now is up against contention and I can't defend that.

I don't know that anyone needs to criticize the team for not playing hard, but if someone had to do it, Pillar and Stroman both seem better candidates.

I think the counter to the office worker analogy falls apart - Tulo hasn't been a superstar in this office for 10 years, he's been a guy who makes more than everyone else for past production while not producing a ton.

All that said, I hope Tulo comes back and excels, and I don't criticize him for being, but I still find it very strange that he had the gall to show up and criticize players for not playing hard. It seems like he should be on the Cardinals.

"I've got a nice long list of the posters hating on TT that I will roll out once he comes back and stops trying to hit 30 bombs."

seems rather childish - I think every blue Jays fan wants & hopes Tulo comes back and performs at an allstar level - that doesn't mean Tulo should be above criticism.

Mattingly
Wakamatsu
Collins
Washington
Scioscia
Roenicke
Ibanez
Tingler
Porter
Ross
Derosa
McEwing
Bogar
Wotus
Bell
Ausmus
Snitker
Molitor
Girardi
Alomar Jr
The Name We Shall Not List (out of baseball currently)
Woodward


I like DeRosa or Woodward from that list. Alomar would fit the legacy infield theme somewhat.

* These names were sourced from recent MLB and ESPN articles of available managers or managers that could be available as well as bench coaches, front office and TV personalities that have applied in the past.


Who would you pick, why and is there anyone not on the list that could make the next great Blue Jays Manager?

Who would you think more appropriate to hold a players meeting than Troy Tulowitzki?

One of the players? Or someone who at least has played for the Blue Jays in the past year? Actually, I"m skeptical of the entire 'Tulo spoke out' narrative. He gave interviews where he stated the reason he was in Oakland was he grew up in the area, and it's close to his home. I think this may be a lot of discussion about something that never happened. Part of the reason it seems odd for someone who hasn't played in a year to be telling players what they should do, may well be because it's something that didn't happen.

Add Eric Wedge to that list and DeMarlo Hale and "the insider pick" from Toronto media...John Schneider (AA manager).

Also Meacham (AAA) who's apparently a hard ass.

Did he have a right to say what he did to his teammates?

I imagine he would have been asked to do this. This is still Gibby's team.

Is he likely to play again and if so at a level that helps the team?

Even last year he was better than Diaz is this year. What are the chances the surgery is a failure?

Fair point CBDC,

Barker was the one that said it on the air..."Tulo called the meeting." Nobody ever said he showed up to criticize his teammates. He could have said "look I know I've been out, but it's just baseball respect for the fans to play harder at this level" etc.

Joe Siddal was asked about it on air on Tim/Sid and said he didn't know who called it.

Barker is well connected with the players and chats with them a lot (I see him chatting all through batting practice with all players). He has also said that JD has told him he will probably accept 3 years at 25 million per and also that Smoak would accept an extension slightly under market.

Good post nonetheless, we don't know if there really was a meeting. Still, lots of the posts tied into the Tulo issue.

"What are the chances the survey is a failure?"

Success rate for a surgery is good, but Tulo had two surgeries on both feet which could slow down the healing process. Maybe 6-12 weeks becomes 12-32 weeks. He had surgery in April so he's in that 16-20 week period of recovery.

Tulo (and Pedroia) were told by doctors that if they reinjure their feet/knees then that's it, they will no longer get medical clearance/recommendation to continue playing baseball.

dalimon5, I sure hope it's not Meacham, I watch a fair amount of Bisons games and he's the Anti Gibbons when it comes to bunting. I've seen him call to bunt the runner over in the first inning.

Yeah I haven’t seen Tulo unduly criticized here, in fact any time there is even a slightly negative comment on this site in the last few years someone always jumps to his defence, as opposed to say Morales who is dumped on no matter what he does. Whatever. Fans have their favourites.

My real hope for Tulo is that he shows enough next year to be traded (with a lot of salary eaten) so the next generation can get their ML reps sooner rather than later.

Isn't Tulo's surgery similar to the one Cespedes is getting?

Unfortunately, he isn't playing. But I'm not sure why him rehabbing the way he is means he's essentially not as permitted to make the comments. If the comments aren't true, that's maybe a different discussion, and then we can chat with said employee about their leadership skills. But if it is true, what difference does it make? He's still part of the team.

For example, if Roy Halladay was rehabbing an injury, and rejoined the team to give any sort of talk, I'd straighten up and listen. I assume Roy Halladay would be doing everything he could to get back to the team, and I would respect his status as a veteran leader and a superstar.

I do not understand why Tulo isn't given the same deference. I certainly would, bone spurs or no bone spurs.

"Did he have a right to say what he did to his teammates? That's a valid point of contention."

If they are his teammates (they are) and he's a leader on the team (he is), why wouldn't he have a right? We can question whether it was wise to exercise this right (and that may be where some of the difference lies here), but certainly in a business context, people on disability leaves are still employees and part of the group.

"Is he likely to play again and if so at a level that helps the team? That's another valid point of contention."

Not sure I understand why this would be a point of contention. Regardless, if he's trying to get back and healthy, isn't that all we can ask at this point?

"Is he lounging around, taking it easy, not working to get back into playing shape? I'm not sure that this is an argument anyone is making, but is somehow the argument being refuted when the prior arguments are being discussed."

When people make comments like "the guy on the milk carton", or "feet up on the couch", that's exactly the argument that is insinuated (or stated, depending on your semantics). That is, by far, the argument that a few of us have been most passionate to rebut. There is simply absolutely no evidence of that, and to insinuate it is insulting to Tulowitzki, and that's what bothers me (and a few others around here).

If someone had implied that Morales was simply lounging around with his feet up on the couch when he was supposed to be rehabbing an injury, I'd be pretty critical of that comment as well (assuming of course there wasn't evidence of that). If someone has evidence that Tulo is doing something other than trying to get back on the field by all means necessary, I'm all ears, and I'd happily critique that behaviour as well. For me, anyways, has nothing to do with favourites.

"He has also said that JD has told him he will probably accept 3 years at 25 million per"

So no worries, it seems, of JD accepting a QO. MLBTR just covered JD this morning.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/how-might-things-play-out-for-josh-donaldson.html

"I do not understand why Tulo isn't given the same deference. I certainly would, bone spurs or no bone spurs."

Because Halladay was a Jays Icon, one of the great players of the team of all time. Tulo has never been a good player with the team and he's been hurt half the time. He hasn't ever really been a teammate to most of this team. In the end, I don't care. If players respect him, they respect him but it does seem odd if true.

Tulowitzki is a veteran superstar who every single player on the Jays would be lucky to have such a career, injuries or no injuries. Just because he hasn't been at that level in Toronto doesn't mean the players wouldn't value/respect his opinion.

I'm fairly certain if Mariano Rivera walked into the clubhouse today and gave a talk the entire team would listen/respect. Obviously that's not exactly the same thing, but what I don't understand from a few posters here is the perception that Tulo wouldn't be respected by the players or something. I'd be stunned if they don't respect him.

I heard different players mention over the years that when a player is on the DL and away from the team, that player is out of the family loop so to speak and not really part of the team - it's partly why some players often withhold injury information from the team because they want to remain with the guys and in the loop - apparently absence does not make the heart grow fonder in clubhouses.

"So no worries, it seems, of JD accepting a QO."

I think it's a real possibility, particularly if he doesn't return to form in 2018. Would any team be willing to guarantee him more than $18 million as a 33-year-old who hasn't proven that he can still play at a high level after an injury (if this is the case)? The QO just might be the best offer he gets... ask Mike Moustakas what he thinks?

I still think Tulo can come back and be a productive player, but I do no think he will be on the team for very long. At this stage in his career Tulo will not accept the growing pains and mistakes that come as part of a rebuild. It's not like Tulo accepted the leadership role leading into the Rockies rebuild.

After he shows he is healthy and reasonably productive the Jays should eat the salary and trade him to the Brewers or Diamondbacks. If not for the Jays but for at least the sake of Tulo's career.

Depends on how much JD believes in himself. His ceiling is still way higher than Moose. Now if JD thinks his calf issues are chronic, then I could see it. And if he's healthy, some team will give him more, maybe not term but $ on a 1 yr deal.

Tulo has a full no trade clause.

If there is one player in the entire organization that has earned the right to act in a leadership role as a player it is Tulo.

(If there are two, add JD.)

While I tend to lean towards the sabermetric side of things, in this case I strongly believe that getting rid if Tulowitzki would be a MASSIVE mistake.

Leadership matters.

(That does not mean you need to keep trotting him out at short, however...)

"Isn't Tulo's surgery similar to the one Cespedes is getting?" Yes it's virtually the exact same thing but somehow the Jays said he should be back 6 to 12 weeks whereas the Mets are saying Cespedes will be out 8-10 months!

85 Jay, for every quote from Jays players saying it's hard to stay connected to a player on the DL (sources?) there must be 10-20 articles about Tulo and Donaldson commanding respect in the locker room.

- countless articles of Tulo being the last guy to leave the field/training facilities every game
- the first guy to report to spring training
- the fittest on the team
- Donaldson came off the field last year and challenged Gibby and it was Tulo who got in between and made Donaldson back down...not Martin or anybody else

Like it or not the dude has a reputation and players listen to him. Being on the DL isn't going to mean that the rest of the players won't respect him that's ridiculous.

The only players critical of Tulo are players from the Rockies who ripped him when he likened their club house to a country club vibe and recently Blackmon went on record in an article to essentially say he can't believe how far Tulo has fallen from legend status to...broke.

Gibbons vs Donaldson w/ Tulo settling things:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99dhn2K0bcQ

The Fall of Tulo w/ rips from Rockies players he tutored:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2769629-the-best-player-like-ever-the-painful-story-of-troy-tulowitzki

"If there is one player in the entire organization that has earned the right to act in a leadership role as a player it is Tulo.

(If there are two, add JD.)

While I tend to lean towards the sabermetric side of things, in this case I strongly believe that getting rid if Tulowitzki would be a MASSIVE mistake.

Leadership matters.

(That does not mean you need to keep trotting him out at short, however...)"


This is very sensible post imho. It makes sense that if he isn't a top 10 SS in baseball when he returns then he should be moved off to 3B, 1B or DH and if he can't hit like he has his career when healthy then it's super utility.

I would say a third player who has earned a leadership role is Russ Martin who has played all season.

Another point is that maybe Tulo was asked to speak to the team. However, unless playing hard equates to pitching better, then he wasted his breath. I know more effort can be made through running out groundballs, cutting down on errors, maybe hustling for an extra base,etc. but, man, unless the pitching picks up, I think the Jays will be hard pressed to win a third of their remaining games.

It is true that in the quickly receding past, Tulo put up very good numbers, perhaps even Hall of Fame numbers, and for that deserves respect. But regardless, he stills puts his pants on one leg at a time, and nobody should be subjected to a lecture on effort from someone who is, by definition, relying on second- or third-hand reports of what is going in the clubhouse. I am glad I don't work with people who think it fine for a "legend" to effectively criticize the character and professionalism of colleagues without first witnessing their conduct firsthand.

I apologize to Tulo and his fan club for any implication from my earlier posts that he is dogging it (which I don't believe to be true), and that is all I will have to say on the subject.

Of course that assumes that what he did was 'a lecture'.

It could have been framed more of a motivational speech as the team has to build up the enthusiasm to finish out a failed season.

That’s a fair comment rpiske. Anyway hopefully this topic has been beaten to death since there are a lot bigger issues in jaysland.

Hey, maybe one of the vets here can post a motivational speech to build up the enthusiasm for the balance of this season. I could also use a lecture about not even bothering to preview my posts.

Like why the Jay's mascot, B.J.Birdie, was seen leaving the Phillie Phanatic's house early one morning recently?

grjas,

"That’s a fair comment rpiske. Anyway hopefully this topic has been beaten to death since there are a lot bigger issues in jaysland."

Certainly I will shoulder most of the blame for this beating. I did try to bring up managerial options. I will stop on the Tulo defence as even I am tiring of seeing my name popping up more than usual in this thread. Speaking of which...

Where has the ugly one gone? He usually leaves enough provoking in his posts that keeps me thinking (and not posting).

no worries dalimon. i wasn't trying to pick on you or anyone else. it's just there's an awful lot of posting on one topic and I was hoping we could move on to other things

Yeah pity uglyone has vanished...hopefully just a holiday.

Speaking of other things, I am really confused as to what the FO is doing in the outfield. They have so many resources now in the high minors and majors it's hard to understand their strategy. Plus Pompey can't seem to buy his way to the majore despite hvaing some pretty good numbers. Sounds like he might injured again but still...
Seems like the strategy is "throw a lot of spaghetti against the wall and hope something sticks"

I'm not sure how I missed it earlier, but Drury was optioned for about 2 months this year (May 14th to June 29th, and July 4th to July 20th). That should mean the Jays have 4 years of control of him after this season, not 3. Now, he needs to take the step forward to an above average player like the team seems to think he can to make it count, but it does mean if he does, they can have more of it. That's still quite an if, but it's something.

It seemed to me like uglyone's posts had developed an extra edge to them over the past year, that I don't recall them having previously. Maybe he got tired of it and decided to take a break. He was obviously disappointed/angry with the front office for not making a bigger effort to compete the past couple years. Which I can understand, although personally I thought the team was done after the 2016 playoffs. That season had two agonizingly bad offensive slumps, and I had lost confidence in the offense as a group, which I think has been borne out the last couple seasons. But it's hard to tear down a playoff team - good way to get hated, right Loria? I understood going for it in 2017, but when it flopped, I was hoping they'd start the rebuild to add major pieces for Vlad and Bo. Donaldson only getting hot after the deadline screwed that up.

Josh Donaldson will either be traded in August or given a Qualifying Offer at the Season’s end. By that time everyone will know what he is. Nothing says he won’t be great next year.

It is my belief that the Jays have no intention of giving Donaldson a QO. They will make every effort to trade him and if that fails, will let him walk.

What would be more valuable, prospects from a trade in August or the 70-80th overall draft pick that the Jays would get as compensation?

Conversely, if Josh Donaldson is still on the team at the end of the season, do you think the Jays will extend him a qualifying offer?  If you are Donaldson, would you accept?

“It is my belief that the Jays have no intention of giving Donaldson a QO. They will make every effort to trade him and if that fails, will let him walk.”

Why? If he accepts, you hope he hits rebuilds some value, and you can flip him in July. If he declines, you get a decent pick.

Exactly. Unless he needs an amputation, it's pretty much a lock.

Blue Jays add RHP Ken Giles to the Roster, Dwight Smith goes down.

I think I am finally of the opinion that Dwight Smith Jr will never hit enough to be a regular and does not have the defence required of a fourth outfielder.

I think the Jays would definitely prefer to trade Donaldson in August, but I can't see a scenario where they don't give him the QO. Worst case you get him back for a year and it gives the team another chance to trade him next July, or he declines it and the team gets a comp pick. The latter is significant because they are likely looking at a top 10 pick in next year's draft and an extra pick is only going to increase the money they have to spend. That has tremendous value. The only downside to him accepting the QO is that they can't offer him the QO again, but that's a small price to pay.

Offering Donaldson a QO seems logical - unless his injuries are serious enough that no one would sign him to a $20 mil 1 year deal.  Smart move for Donaldson would be to accept the QO and go back on the market next winter with no compensation.  If he accepts the Jays need to trade him for the equivalent of a late first round draft pick if they can get that for him.

Nobody gets my humor. I say things as a joke a few times. Mainly in the off season and they come true.


My latest joke. JD used to be a good player. JD is back with the Jays next year somehow. To his relief he is healthy and has a 2015/16 season. Boston and NYY end up with SP injuries because their Aces got over worked the last 2 years. I finally make a pessimistic prediction that the Jays will win 77-79 games. I am wrong as usual they win over 90 gms. JD does not get traded at the 2019 deadline because Shapiro never gets to do what he wants. He cannot trade JD at his most valuable and he is forced to trade actual prospects to bolster the pen. He gets a set up man. A few Bauxites say trade him at the deadline but they get disagreed with. JD walks away at the end of the season but pens a letter in a newspaper thanking the Jays, his teamates and the great city and fans of Toronto.

When Josh Donaldson is good, he can be very good to exceptional a lot. When Josh Donaldson is not good, he’s playing hurt. He’s still well above average a lot. He wants the big score now, but might only get two - three year offers and maybe another type of year. He needs to be back to normal to get that. Accepting a Qualifying Offer could end any possibility of a three year deal and most two years deals.