All 4 players have the hit tool. That seems important to this FO. The toolsy players like DJ Davis, R Pruitt and A Gose were lacking the hit tool but had other tools.


A pattern is emerging on this FOs thought process.

I do like the prospects from the Oh trade. The Yankee trade is underwhelming. Not sure if Drury is any kind of upgrade over Solarte. From what I have read Drury is below avg defensively. Drury had some decent numbers in Ariz, not so much in NY. It just seems to clog up the MI.

I've seen some stories on supposed interest in Stroman by the Braves. Selling low is never good.

Drury is not a good hitter. His Arizona numbers are home-park illusions. Look at his road numbers.

Ross Atkins said, “The Jays have always liked Brandon.”, noting that his versatility and solid offensive numbers are an asset to the Team as they move forward.
Atkins told Drury that he’ll be in the lineup tomorrow night.

Blue Jays claimed RHP Oliver Drake off waivers from the Angels. He will be in the Bullpen tomorrow.

Oh's deal was with the Rangers. Not the Orioles.

Also, Drury has over 1,000 major league at-bats. Calling him a prospect is the loosest definition of the term I've heard in a long time.

Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs is not really a fan of the trade from the Jays' perspective. His brief take from his article on the site: "All-in-all, the Yankees paid a fair amount in value for a J.A. Happ rental, I just feel the Blue Jays would have been better served to get that value in a different configuration."

I would have liked to see some arms returned, because of that, I'm mostly underwhelmed.

Spanberger has plusplus power and the upside is Chris Davis.
He strikes out a lot, but it might be fixable. Or not.

Wall is a former first round supplemental pick who signed for 2M.
Because of a torn labrum he was limited to 2B, but they moved him to CF after he led his league in errors.
Could fill up and hit for average with speed as a left fielder or 4th outfielder.

Drury is a dreary pick up. Mostly a cost saving. They Yankees picked up all of Happ's salary.
Drury will be be a cheap 3B option. The other word for that is controllable.

Mckinney is an outfielder in the mold of Hernandez and Grichuk.
I think Hernandez's defense with Grichuk's bat is a good approximation.
Can only play LF with below average defense. The type of players competitive teams don't carry anymore.
The expression for that is second division regular.

I would have taken the QO for Happ, but maybe now they lose enough games to make that moot.
There's like 5M saved on Happ and about 8M more if they can move Solarte.
The consolation now is that the Yankees might have to move real prospects in their next trades.

Well Wall just hit a HR, Jays win the trade.

For those of you who felt that Happ's July performance had no impact on his trade value:

In his last outing against the Red Sox, he gave up five runs, including a grand slam to Mookie Betts. Each of the runs he allowed in the 6-4 loss on July 12 was unearned.

That rough start was one of a few Happ has had in recent weeks. It seemed that as the trade deadline drew closer and closer, his numbers looked poorer and poorer. In his start that immediately preceded that one, a July 7 appearance against the Yankees, Happ couldn't get out of the third inning before walking six and allowing six runs.

"Some of that's a little bit deceiving," Boone said of Happ's recent struggles. "It's probably been some defensive issues behind him. Some of the peripheral numbers suggest he's been a lot more like he's been all year.

"His stuff and his velocity all appears to be the same. So we feel that we're getting a pitcher we've seen the last few years."

Cashman said he used some of Happ's recent performances in his negotiating tactics. He felt they might help drive down the price for the pitcher.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24192957/toronto-blue-jays-trading-ja-happ-new-york-yankees

Well, those scouts in attendance were there to draw lists of negatives to drag down the value.
That doesn't change anything. The Jays turned down other teams' offers which presumably were lower level prospects.

The Jays should have put their their best defense behind him instead of Gurriel/Hernandez.
That's a choice they made, but ultimately, it probably didn't change anything except maybe scare away the NL teams who chose to hang on to their prospects.

This trade seems very much in line with the type of moves the FO made in the winter (Grichuk, Diaz, Solarte), except they decided to use their best rental trade chip (with Donaldson out) to do it, which is really strange. Unless they liked Drury so much that they preferred him over a lottery ticket prospect, which is hard to determine without knowing what the other offers were. Maybe the Yankees were not willing to move some of their good young pitching and/or other teams were making lukewarm offers.

Still extremely underwhelming. It certainly appears like the FO is gearing towards a drastically reduced payroll next season.

Lower appetite for risk is one of the consistent attributes of this front office. Higher floor low ceiling players fit that mold.

The other potential is a swing adjustment of some sort he's purported to have made over the winter, or something like that (this offseason, he apparently saw the coaches who helped JD Martinez and Chris Taylor, according to The Times via The Atlantic). If they feel he has higher upside compared to the other options and can transform into a definite above average player, then so be it. Given his age, that will be evident soon enough, and needs to be, given he's only under control for 3 more years. If it's just them trying to watch current-Drury blossom into an average bit of fluffiness for a couple seasons, then that makes absolutely no sense to blow your best deadline chit when that averageness won't really mean much of anything.

or, tl;dr... Blergh.

As to the high floor, low ceiling idea - there is a lot of value in that right now.  We have a few potential superstars in the minors almost ready for the big time in Vlad, Bo, and Jansen.  All 3 could be here next year.  You want to surround them with at least above replacement level guys, ideally league average or better ones you have control of for as long as possible.  Players like Drury fit that nicely.  Next trick is to keep building a pipeline so deals like this aren't needed.  Easier said than done of course.

It's kind of a cart-horse conundrum, though. They need their entire 3 person core to hit, because they're filling most-everything else with interchangeable parts. A 3 person core (or 4 if you're a Biggio believer) isn't enough without a Cleveland level pitching staff. Build the core, then surround it when you think it'll crest.

That's the part of the trade that gets me the most - it's burning assets to build the chaff before the wheat is ready to harvest. I get it for Oh, and other supplementary assets, but Happ was the best they had - a solid #3, capable of pitching in any playoff rotation.

Looking at it as is, if they get a non-discounted offer for Stroman, they should seriously consider it, because they need some more upside if they're going to have a shot in the next couple years.

They are going to have to take some risk at some point if they want to win in this division. Whether it be via trades or free agent signings....the middle ground is not going to work.

As much as I am underwhelmed by this deal, I do agree with Atkins that teams are not trading top prospects for rentals anymore. There was definitely a shift in philosophy by teams in 2017 where prospects and aging curves became extremely important (unfortunately it didn't happen in time to stop the Cubs from trading Torres to the Yankees).

If Atkins made this move rather than go for a 23-year old P in A+ with a limited ceiling, then I could see the logic in just trying to get the best perceived value.

The FO has added minor league depth at the deadline the past three years with Espinal, Wall, Spanberger, McKinney, Hernandez, Pannone, Taylor, McGuire, and Ramirez. None of them are top prospects, but I don't think they deliberately targeted a big leaguer instead of a prospect based on that history. It might have just been the situation they felt they were in. A perceived undervalued big leaguer with four years of control left versus a prospect (from the Yankees and other teams) that they didn't like, and they went with the former.

I agree completely with Fangraphs here. The return is fine. Happ, especially after the last month, was not going to bring back anything special. It's just the wrong return for where the Jays are. They need to stack the minor league system. I have to believe they could have received a couple of interesting arms.

Nobody was expecting top prospects. The 2 guys the Yankees sent to the rays to get Drury were Solak (11th in the Rays system) and Widener (3rd in the Arizona system). I would have taken that.

Scott's first comments on this are like the fully actualized articulation of my own.

The fit is just all wrong. To the point where not helping your enemy should have entered the equation.

I like Drury a bit more than other posters (NOT LOVE) but this deal screams of the team not spending any money in the next couple of years and not taking on risky/upside talent you need to win in this division. Maybe Drury turns into the player the Yankees were hoping last winter & the development people help Mckinney maximize his talent but those are big maybes.

Currently the Jays have the 10th pick, my hope is for them to get into the top 5.

Yeah, at this point, bring up Pannone and Nick Tepesch.

"To the point where not helping your enemy should have entered the equation."

Where the Jays are this year, the Yankees are not an enemy. Right now, the Jays "enemies" are those clubs around and below them in the standings, preventing the Jays acquiring a better draft position.

In the big picture, taking assets (no matter how small) from the Yankees for a rental will not help the Yankees in the slightest when the Jays are in a position to actually contend against them.

"Currently the Jays have the 10th pick,"

Actually 11th. Braves have pick 9 for not signing Carter Stewart.

Trading the Yankees a player (Happ) who will help drive attendance and possibly contribute to a postseason run and the extra revenue that goes with postseason success, probably does amount to helping the enemy.

"I like Drury a bit more than other posters (NOT LOVE) but this deal screams of the team not spending any money in the next couple of years and not taking on risky/upside talent you need to win in this division."


Agreed that the Jays need to trade for some high risk/high upside talent at some point, but the issue in this case might have been the timing. They decided to wait until Happ was a rental rather than trading him last deadline or winter, which in this market ended up greatly limiting their return.

As I said in previous posts, they absolutely cannot make that same mistake with Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna. If they want any of those three to be on the team post-2020, then try for an extension now. If that fails, then they need to be very decisive on moving them. If the team is in this same position in the summer of 2020, seeing what they can get for those three as rentals as they head into free agency, then it's going to be a problem.

I don't see the point of Drury. Yeah, every team probably needs one. But the Jays have a bunch already. What does the FO see in Drury that so many others do not?

Anyone seen anything on who is starting this weekend in Chicago? I was hoping to see SR-F either Saturday or Sunday, but it appears he is still scheduled to start in AAA tonight...

They were hoping for Estrada tomorrow and Borucki on Sunday.

Chuck, I don't see it either, but the Yankees gave up a couple of decent prospects to acquire him.

OK, maybe possibly Happ will will put some money in the owners pockets. Now if it was the Rays we were talking about, extra revenue could lead to extra spending. But does Happ do anything to alter the Yankees future spending?

but the Yankees gave up a couple of decent prospects to acquire him.

I can't comment on the quality of the prospects the Yankees gave up, but I wonder if their pursuit of Drury was not motivated by their general uncertainty at 2B and 3B (post Castro/Headley/Frazier), long since mitigated by the impressive play of Torres and Andujar.

I have been trying to find a silver lining in Drury so I started reading Yankees articles about why they acquired him in the first place.

In a few articles Cashman mentions that Drury hits fastball well, but he simply doesn't swing at them enough. The Yankees were trying to use analytics and advance scouting to get him to attack fastballs more with a better approach at the plate. They believed he had Didi Gregarious break-out potential.

As he currently stands Drury is not a good player, the Yankees tried to correct his flaws but the emergence of other young players never allowed that to happen. This is an opportunity for the Jays to see as an organization how they can correct flaws and get more out of players.

https://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-analysis-sabermetrics/2018/2/23/17042772/yankees-mlb-diamondbacks-rays-trade-drury-solak-souza-andujar-torres-wade

Chuck, yes, the Yanks needed infield help, but Drury wasn't the only option they had.

And as for the prospects, FG gave then 45 and 40 FV's.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-anthony-banda-nick-solak-and-taylor-widener/

 . . . it's burning assets to build the chaff before the wheat is ready to harvest.
Wow, that is/are some metaphor(s), Spiffy! What exactly does it/do they mean?

Happ will help drive attendance in New York?

Uh, not likely. He really isn't that big of a deal for the Yankees. He is an upgrade to their rotation, but it isn't like they traded for Kershaw.

I'm not even 100% sure he will be in their post-season rotation, assuming they get past the Wild Card game.

It is a fair comment to note that Drury has done something right to be a league average-ish hitter for that many at bats at 26, with enough defensive versatility to plug him in at two positions. If there is additional potential in that bat, I can see the rationale here.

The Hamels return suggests that the Jays did quite fine here.

Further, I think I'm fine with the approach in not dealing these guys in the offseason. With a healthy Donaldson and better luck from Tulo (and even average seasons from Stroman and Sanchez), this team would be in the Wild Card hunt in a normal year (Yankees-RedSox are making this an abnormal year on the Wild Card front). I'm not sure the Happ return would have been THAT much stronger in the offseason, to be honest.

Warming up to this, at least a little. Teams aren't dealing those super-high-end guys anymore, unless you are giving up good players with multiple years of control (like the Hand/Cimber for Mejia trade).

I think the potential upside on Drury is if you believe his vision/migraine problems significantly affected him in the past and is/will be eliminated. Apparently he only found out the source of the problem this spring, and I haven't read whether treatment has cured or reduced the problem, but his performance this year in AAA hasn't significantly changed his statistical profile.

Nevertheless, I think that's where a significant possibility of upside lies for Drury, and for this trade.

"They believed he had Didi Gregarious break-out potential."

Unless the Jays are also able to turn Drury into an elite defender that type of breakout isn't going to be overly useful in this instance. Gregorious, after his incredible start, is down to a 114 wRC+ (after a 107 last season) and still provides a large part of his value via his defense.

The returns for Hamel don't appear to be impressive either.

Cashman is an excellent GM, and it's worth noting that he traded two of his top 15 (per MLB pipeline) in order to get Drury in the first place, just 6 months ago.  Nick Solack, a 2nd rounder in 2016, is currently Tampa Bay's 11th ranked prospect (5 spots ahead of the just acquired Jalen Beeks) and Taylor Widener - the 3rd ranked prospect for the Diamondbacks.
McKinney has fallen a long way in prospect rankings, but has also been traded 3 times now, which has to be disruptive for a young player - at least major leaguers get quality housing and transit. 

In other words, both guys are serious buy-low candidates.  I also don't like the positional redundancy, but I don't think this deal is a poor as many are saying.  Happ was the best starter available, which is significant, even in this new era of prospect-hoarding.  I'm assuming the front office CHOSE this package over others with the lottery-type prospects many seem to prefer. 

Our two best trade chips are gone, but so far so good.  My only concern at this point is playing time - we have a 40 man roster crunch coming, and need to make informed decisions on who to keep.  If we are going to acquire fringey talent, we need to find ways to develop some of that talent into major leaguers.  Atkins recently stated that “We’re at the point now where our position player talent is very, very strong, and it would be hard to really upgrade.”
I agree, but don't care one bit if the talent, outside of our top ten prospects, is left MLB ready in AAA. 

The Jays definitely face a roster crunch, which leads to questions on how they're going to protect all their assets while also "improving" or at least cheaply maintaining the current integrity of the big league roster.

Need to be Added to 40-man in the fall:
Forrest Wall
Jonathan Davis
Jordan Romano
Justin Shafer
Conor Fisk
Travis Bergen
Claudio Custodio
Tayler Saucedo
Patrick Murphy
Jackson McClelland
Angel Perdomo *Will be a minor league FA if not added

Minor Leaguers on 40-man:
Sean Reid-Foley
Thomas Pannone
Luis Santos
Reese McGuire
Dwight Smith Jr.
Anthony Alford
Billy McKinney
Richard Urena
Rowdy Tellez

MLB Roster Players (27):
Marcus Stroman
Aaron Sanchez
Sam Gaviglio
Ryan Borucki
Ryan Tepera
Joe Biagini
Danny Barnes
Tim Mayza
Jake Petricka (Designate?)
Oliver Drake (Designate?)
Rhiner Cruz (Designate?)

Danny Jansen
Russ Martin
Luke Maile

Justin Smoak
Devon Travis
Brandon Drury
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Yangervis Solarte
Troy Tulowitzki
Kendrys Morales
Aledmys Diaz (do not tender contract?)

Teoscar Hernandez
Kevin Pillar
Randal Grichuk
Dalton Pompey (Out of options)

In one of his media clips on the Sportsnet site Ross Atkins mentioned something about going after Pitching, but zero details on who or who might get traded.

Surprising enough, the Jays’ biggest need is good Starting Pitching, and better health.

Return for Hamels was even worse than Happ so I feel a little better.

Well, I'm nothing if not sedate.
By happy coincidence, my real life initials are MEH, which makes for a great monogram.

roster crunch, which leads to questions on how they're going to protect all their assets while also "improving" or at least cheaply maintaining the current integrity of the big league roster.

1) Obviously some of them will not stay long as MLB regulars so shall the Jays sort them first? Scouting and coaching are much needed there.
2) Then shall the Jays limit themselves in trading away veterans for prospects? For example, are there some real MLB regulars blocked in advancement and promotion in Double-A and Triple-A? Then when those young players who do not make the cut, they would be traded away as a package to other teams for 1 MLB regulars stuck in Triple-A? This observation shifts each season. Essentially, let other team hold onto the lottery tickets that are not likely to yield prizes. For example, could a package of young players not making the cut return for the Jays Brandon Drury with his current flaws?

Bah! posted that in the wrong thread.

... well, while I'm here, as for the 40-man, Drake and Cruz are the prime candidates for removal, then Santos. A few trades are going to need to be made for non-40s to clear it up, because I see a list of 6 that I'd be looking to add:

Romano
Murphy
Wall
Davis
Perdomo (bubble)
Bergen (bubble)

SRF isn't on the roster currently, but he's a no-brainer, and already accounted for on your list.

I'd probably deal Maile to give Jansen an opening.

There's got to be a team like Philly or Milwaukee that could use a Diaz or Solarte.

Some of the pending free agents won't be back either.

I listened to Baseball Central J Blair and K Barker. J Blair had a long chat with himself. Barker seemed to think that there were currently too many players for 2B, SS and 3B.


I wish Gibby was on the show to explain. Maybe Wilner understands.

I've definitely been pleasantly surprised by Diaz - he's sure-handed at short though not rangy, and he seems to make a lot of solid line-drive contact (I know the barrel and exit velocity numbers don't seem to bear that out, so I'm definitely placing an asterisk by my impression). I just think he'd be more wanted by say Philly or Milwaukee. Given Urena's existence on the 40-man and the rest of the depth as well, they're both movable to me. It's just too crowded in the IF, and the offence just isn't going to be there next year... or the defence.

Here's hoping that Stroman is dazzling tonight & AA keeps calling

Most of the prospects traded by AA did not pan out. He’s pretty shrewd — probably not my first choice for a trading partner.

In any event, I would prefer that the Jays keep Stroman.

Given the general state of the club’s pitching and lack of pitching prospects, I really don’t understand the interest in rushing Stroman off the roster.

Given the fact that Solarte really can’t field any position, I’d like to see them simply cut Solarte if they can’t give him away.

Nice summary Marc.  

I'd designate the three names you mention, barring a major turnaround (the club seems to think they've got something in Petricka), tender Diaz a contract for sure, and give pompey some run in the bigs ASAP. 

I agree with your 6 names to add Spifficus, no bubble for me, although I'd give Bergen a shot in September before finalizing a decision - Fisk and Shafer too.
Marc, do you think Custodio is possibly worthy of a spot?  He is an off the radar dude, but as a converted OF who missed all of 2017, he's certainly a wildcard.
I don't see Saucedo or McClelland making the list, but I would also add Kevin Vicuna, Yennsy Diaz, and possibly John Harris depending on space. 

Remove Drake, Cruz and Santos, make the changes above and we have 40-42 names, depending on the reliever auditions and a QO for Donaldson.
That's we all the FAs gone, none added.  So guys like Bergen, Fisk, Shafer, Diaz, Harris and Perdomo will be up for debate, as may big-leaguers Smith Jr. and Danny Barnes. 

Fringey names, for sure, but our biggest roster crunch, in terms of prospects, in some time.  Perhaps we could be looking to acquire some controllable talent in trades for prospects.

I'm happy to move anyone not likely to be part of the next window and I don't see Stroman and/or Sanchez as part of the next window . Would LOVE to see an Atlanta/Toronto trade - given the history, would make for a delicious conversation piece about who "won" the trade.

The Cardinals will be desperately trying to move Fowler this winter - he's owned 49.5m , while Tulo is owned 38m including the buyout - if the Cardinals cover the difference I think a deal is possible - if Tulo is given a clean bill of health, he's the kind of "aw shucks" all american with the right pedigree that midwesterners would love and Tulo would probably be happy to get off turf and back to the NL - Cardinals could play Dejong at 2B.

85bluejay - I think the next window is actually a fair distance away (three years at least) but I would rather them extend Stroman (assuming he has an interest in being here) than trade him. However, I do understand your line of thinking. If you're in that boat I think you'd be better off moving him in the winter with more trading partners being available. All that being said, I think that there is very little chance that Stroman or Sanchez gets moved. I'm convinced Rogers wants a 78-84 win team very year. Without Stroman and/or Sanchez I don't see how next year's team could do that. More importantly, without them, I don't see how they construct a marketing strategy or story that the team is potentially competitive (even if its not).

I have no doubt that Rogers is going to want Stroman front and center in their marketing for the 2019 season, so I wouldn't expect a deal now. That's why I mentioned next year's deadline. If Stroman is having a good season and the team is out of it again, then the Jays can move him with a year and a half of control left, which should still get them at least one top 50 prospect type of prospect. Sanchez is more unpredictable because this will be his second straight lost/mediocre season. If he has a good few months in 2019, he should be moved ASAP. Osuna will likely get moved just for PR reasons but hopefully Rogers will give the FO enough time to get value back.

Those are the three players to move. Expecting difference-making prospects for anyone else on the big league roster is unrealistic.

I don't mind the thought of dealing Stro - and I love the thought of Atkins vs. the ninja - but I dislike the idea of selling low, and we'd be selling way low right now on the guys who could yield the 'difference making' prospects.
But those difference makers do change from year to year, so I don't mind the lottery type prospects either.  Biggio and Smith are arguably top ten prospects for us right now, and neither was a difference maker til this year.  Jonathan Davis was unprotected in the rule v last year and is now our 20th best prospect per MLB. 

A deal like AA's original deal for Happ in 2012 would make sense right now.  we sold high on 5 prospects - Joe Musgrove looks like a solid 4th starter, the other guys look unlikely to ever contribute in the bigs.  we got 3.5 years of control of Happ in a trade Richard Griffin called AA's worst.  (and we got rid of some crappy contracts). 

Actually AA sold low on Musgrove, Comer and Woj. Musgrove developed shoulder problems, Comer lost a bunch of velocity and when the Jays tried to smooth out Woj's violent delivery, he got lit up like a Christmas tree.

The guys I remember AA selling high on were Nestor, Nicolino, Boyd, Graveman, Norris, Barreto and Syndergaard, though I'm sure there were others.

Barreto is the odd one on that list. In Vancouver, he did a decent impersonation of a young Paul Molitor with a really short, quick swing and a line drive, all field approach to hitting. Watching him the other night in Oakland he’s morphed into some weird Rob Deer impersonator. Gripping and ripping on everything. So weird

Nigel - I'm afraid you are probably right about Rogers.

Rogers is what Rogers is. I lived in Toronto through the Harold Ballard and Interbrew years and now live in Vancouver through the Acquillini years. Rogers doesn't look bad at all through that lens. Rogers is consumed with the near term financial performance of the Jays (and TV rights) even at the expense of better longer term baseball decisions. However, unlike the owners listed above, I don't think Rogers walks around with a shotgun trying to shoot their own foot off every chance they get. There's a big difference.

Looks like the Twins are getting the kind of return for Eduardo Escobar that most here were hoping to get for Happ.

Many Jay fans overrated Happ I think. I think the return was better than those outside of TO expected.

I meant A ball prospects.

I'm convinced Rogers wants a 78-84 win team very year.
I've been saying this for years. They never want the Jays to tear it down completely (too much of a hit to attendance and TV ratings) but otoh their bottom line is to maximize profit, not necessarily to win, so they don't really splurge and go all in. Rogers' happy zone is an 80-85 win team in perpetuity. If the Jays win more than that, great, but ownership isn't really going to help them do that.

Happ is a free agent and I can't think of a single free agent pitcher who didn't get overvalued last winter.

I'd be pretty happy if nobody likes Happ and the Jays resign him.
Although, I was pretty skeptical when Atkins brought him back for 2016.

I dunno. Donaldson is pretty much gone. Martin and Tulo are still here only on paper.
There isn't much left to tear down.
Guerrero will start accumulating service time next year so if he's going to be the face of the franchise, it's too late to sell young guys.  You won't get any stars from the current roster unless they are several years away. What matters is keeping the right guys and trading the surplus ones. Which is exactly what the Yankees are doing.

It's still way to early to start the hot stove.

Danny Barnes is pitching for Buffalo tonight. When he is ready there will be another player to be squeezed onto the roster. The Jays might keep him in Buffalo until the trade deadline.

And Barnes turns a 2-1 Buffalo lead into a 4-2 deficit.

I don't agree at all that Escobar is a better player than Happ or is likely to be more valuable than Happ for the duration of the season. Happ's ERA has gone up this season, and he had a couple ill-timed poor starts, but that is not predictive.

Escobar is having his best season (modestly outperforming his xwOBA), but still isn't projected to be better than Happ for the rest of the season. Happ has a FIP that's on par with his past two seasons, and his xFIP, SIERA and swK% are all career highs. Happ's market might have been worse than Escobar's, but he's likely to be the more valuable player for the balance of the year.

Teams don't trade at this stage based on a Stat on who will be more valuable overall. They trade for who they believe will be more valuable to them in getting to where they want to go. It's silly to say that Happ will be better than another traded player since "better" depends on what the team needs. This isn't fantasy baseball rotisserie league...im a millennial and even I know that.

Blue Jay Way...what your theory doesn't hold up to is the fact that Rogers as a business can make more money, more sales, more ratings and more profit if they achieve more wins. It doesn't make sense to "get by with profits" when you can try to make big money. Your theory also ignores the fact that ownership has boosted payroll above a "get by don't lose money" level years ago.

I don't disagree that a lower payroll is a possibility...but I'll wait until that happens before saying that's what Rogers wants when it's not what the numbers show.

Saying something for years doesn't make it true.

what your theory doesn't hold up to is the fact that Rogers as a business can make more money, more sales, more ratings and more profit if they achieve more wins.
Of course that would be true...as you said "if" they achieve more wins. What they're not willing to do is spend beyond a certain point and risk that the wins don't come anyway. I wish that the desire to win was stronger and thus the 'risk point' was somewhat higher.

Dalimon, you make fair points, but I'm not sure they support the view that Escobar is actually more valuable to contending teams than Happ. A starting pitcher necessarily displaces the worst of 5 starting pitchers, and almost every team has a weak 5th starter. Few teams have as weak a spot at third base or second as they have in the 5th starter spot.

I'm not arguing that Escobar is more valuable. I'm not arguing that Happ isn't more valuable. I am saying that it's not an objective fact one way or the other generally. It's completely dependent on every team and what they need which will determin who is more valuable or "better," to acquire in trade.

"Currently the Jays have the 10th pick, my hope is for them to get into the top 5."

I'm guessing Oliver Drake is your new favourite Blue Jay.

This team ducks right now. I may actually choose not to renew my seasons. They want the tix paid next month for early bird discount (use to be in Oct).

I did not expect this from Gurriel. I thought he looked like a utility player but there is much more power there than expected. Also, nine straight multi hit games is amazing. Would love him to walk a bit more but it's very possible he's an everyday player going forward.

Yes, Gurriel is starting to look like one of the core of young guys the Jays will be building around for the next run at contender status. His contract may be one of the best in baseball (from the team's perspective). His development this year is one of the biggest positives for the Jays' future in a season populated by quite a few negatives at the big league level (Donaldson's injuries destroying his trade value, the Osuna issue, Sanchez's continuing injury problems, Stroman's poor season, Travis' failure to bounce back) impacting key young players or potential trade receipts.

Noboby walks off from the island applies to Gurriel as well. Nobody should be surprised.
Last time I checked, his more mature brother had 14 walks in 300 ABs.

He comes to the plate ready to hit the first pitch and he's not an all pull guys.
At a time when they have 5 guys for 3 positions, he's making room for himself in the lineup.

I wonder about Osuna.
It's clear he already had mental health issues.
Can't the team just give him the best therapy and support and run their PR on that?
What else is needed? Does he need to start some sort of foundation? Maybe for men in Mexico?
Nothing can really happen until the courts are done with him.

The crazy thing about Gurriel is that he is still stat line still lags his expected results by a large margin... I was not very high on him entering the year, but I am happy to be surprised by his breakout.

Defence be dammed a core of Smoak, Hernandez, Gurriel, Grichuk with hopefully strong debuts from Vlad and Jannsen is a strong group of hitters.

The key for this team post deadline is trying to find the best defensive homes for some key guys and maybe experiment with different positioning, shifts, etc to try and get more out of the players we have defensively.

If Gurriel is anywhere near as good as he's looked lately that's an exciting player to add to the core. I don't know if he is or what. You can see the talent, but the walk rate is frighteningly low. Anyway, in his swing and stance something about Gurriel reminds me of Alex Rios as a hitter.

Gurriel has now walked just 22 times in 632 combined PA in the minors and majors (with his lowest BB% rate being in the majors, of course). That's cause for at least a little worry. At some point he's going to stop getting two hits a night.

He does not profile as a lead off hitter. His brother had 22 walks in 564 PAs last year.
That was still good for an OPS+ of 122. The bat will play regardless.

Gurriel will never walk much. The secret to success for him I think is if he sticks at a defensive position that has some value. I'd stick him nearly full time at 2b for now and then maybe next spring training give him a look in cf if you think he has that ability.

Padres said to be making everyone but Gore and Tatis available in trade for a potential front line starter like Archer.

Anybody think (or want) a Stroman to SD deal for prospects centered around Cal Quantrill?

As always, whomever offers the best deal - Paddock & Baez seem more interesting - the connection with Quantrill doesn't interest me at all & he's been lukewarm since returning from TJ.

AA doesn't give up easily - I'm betting he been calling Atkins.

Padres are the worse team in the NL. Why would they trade for someone with 2 years of control?
Especially with 2 months to go?

Padres are the worse team in the NL. Why would they trade for someone with 2 years of control? Especially with 2 months to go? scottt July 28 2018 @ 02:07 PM EDT
The Padres had given MLB PAs to former Jays Ryan Schimpf. How about packaging some pitchers (Garcia, Petricka) and possibly batters to the Padres for the calibre of prospects similar to Drudy?

Very enjoyable Yankees game so far. Severino gave up 6 runs in 4.1 innings against KC.
It will be hard for Happ to look bad tomorrow.

Padres will take off next year. To discount them as a team that won't be contending in the next 2 years is naive. Look at the Astros and consider that SD has a better Fram than Houston did and more money to spend. Signing Hosmer a year early should have been enough of a hint combined with the proliferation of inexperienced youth that is changing the balance of competition throughout MLB.

The list of prospects ready to contribute shortly in SD (if they aren't already) is long and strong. SD could conceivably trade for Vlad and Bichette and Pearson and still have a top 5-10 farm system afterwards (not counting the acquired players).

That is some serious overrating of the Padres. They have a great system but not major league talent. Will myers and Manuel Margot aren't leading a team to a World Series. Their ace is.. ? Clayton Richard? They are years away from being a contender. You can't win based only on prospects. You need that major league talent that prospects can supplement. Until they have a core in place in the majors, they are years away.

The Padres are attempting the same get rich quick scheme that AA tried after the Jays won 73 games in 2012 - using their prospect capital to try and speed up contention window - maybe ownership & fans losing patience with rebuild.

Houston has had Keuchel since 2012. If the Padres think they can compete next year, then why did they just trade their closer?

San  Diego has 2 starters with ERA over 5 and 2 with ERA over 7. In the NL!
They'll improve next year,  but it would take a lot to even reach .500.

SD could conceivably trade for Vlad and Bichette and Pearson and still have a top 5-10 farm system afterwards (not counting the acquired players).

I'm not sure what to make of this comment, but I wouldn't trade Vlad and Bo for Gore, Morejon and Tatis. Let's assume Paddock and Pearson are roughly equal and forget those four Padres prospects.

If San Diego traded those players, I don't think what's left, headlined by Meija (who I don't think sticks at catcher and thus loses a bunch of his value), Urias, Baez and Quantrill gets you a top 5 or top 10 system. I have't done a system-by-system comparison, but maybe bottom of the top 10 is about the best I can see.

It's a good system, but no need to go overboard.

The Padres are interested in Archer because they know the Rays will trade him for prospects soon anyway and he's under contract for 3 more years at a low price.
Other than that, Archer is a workhorse who can gives you 200 innings.
Mind you, with Snell on the DL and Eovaldi traded, I don't think Tampa can manage without Archer.


Stroman has only 2 years left, is more expensive and has missed some time this year.

I don't think there's a fit there. Stroman and Sanchez need to rebuild value, otherwise you're selling low.
It might not be a bad time for an extension though. They can already figure out what the arbitration will wield for 2019. Factor a good, not great year after that and add a one year team option at market value for an average starter.

If Gurriel is anywhere near as good as he's looked lately that's an exciting player to add to the core.
Mentoring?

In the 2012 Offseason, A.A. was after a big Bat and a quality Starter. The Offseason just got out of hand after Plan A and Plan B failed. That 2012 Team was better than any Padre Team of today.

Actually AA sold low on Musgrove, Comer and Woj. Musgrove developed shoulder problems, Comer lost a bunch of velocity and when the Jays tried to smooth out Woj's violent delivery, he got lit up like a Christmas tree.

Hypobole, I know you like to disagree with me every chance you can, but what?  He sold low?  Comer had 10 games in the Jays org.  Musgrove had 11.  how in the world is that selling low?

jerjapan, I'll answer your question and to nip this in the bud, never again respond any post of yours, unless you specifically direct it to me.

Musgrove was a 1st round supplemental pick, rated top 100 by BA. He developed shoulder problems, one reason why he only ended up pitching 17 innings in 2012.

Comer was also a 1st round supplemental pick, who signed for $1.65 million. He was throwing a low-mid 90's FB when drafted. At the time of the trade his FB velocity was in the 80's.

Both players prospect status had dropped at the time of the trade. To me, that's not selling high, that's selling low.

nip what in the bud?  respond away, I like being disagreed with, and you like disagreeing with me.  I just don't see your point in this case. 

How small is the sample size before you don't take it into consideration?  I've always thought it was a feather in AA's cap that he moved on from Comer and Woj so fast. 

None of the Prospects traded in 2012 were going to help the Jays at any time soon. The Players traded were useful but somewhat surplus to the Jays needs. The Players that came back had more upside/talent, something the Jays needed. At the time of the trade, the Jays were still close to a playoff spot despite all the Pitching injuries. The Season ended when the position players went down with injury.

Electric Carrot makes a fair point.

I've vehemently disliked the Morales signing from the get-go and, over the past year in particular, have often thought the Jays should move on from Morales, regardless of the fact they may not get any team to eat any money from the contract (at least without taking back other dead money).

However, I have wondered if Morales has played a role in helping Gurriel adjust to the majors. I think it's more likely to be a case of looking for an explanation than a cause-and-effect, but I am not willing to discount it either.

Morales is now hitting .259/.334/.447 for the season (108 wRC+). With his base running and defensive deficiencies, that's not adequate for a DH. But the bashing of Morales has become overblown. He's making $11m this year and he has earned $2.7m of it, according to Fangraphs. That's really not a big deal.

Meanwhile, Encarnacion has an almost identical 109 wRC+ and he has earned $4m of his $17m salary. He's due $20m in salary next year. I notice the EE versus Morales handwringing has long since stopped -- for good reason.

Kendrys Morales will never live up to expectations. But then I don’t expect him to. He performs well enough. Too much has gone wrong the last two years for his offense to matter. I didn’t mind the signing. I thought the signing was not so much for his abilities but more for who he blocked the Jays from resigning. The Jays only resigned Bautista because Ownership stepped in and added the money.

From JJ Cooper of Baseball America: Had scouts tell me they figured Rockies were showcasing Chad Spanberger for a trade when they kept him in LoA all year. Was too advanced for Sally League, but it worked. (Gerry, July 26 2018 @ 10:50 AM EDT)
The Padres are attempting the same get rich quick scheme that AA tried after the Jays won 73 games in 2012 - using their prospect capital to try and speed up contention window - maybe ownership & fans losing patience with rebuild. (85bluejay, July 28 2018 @ 04:36 PM EDT)
Can the Jays take advantage of it? For example, by trading away veteran pitchers or batters with positive WARs with Jays lower end prospect  for higher ranked Padres prospect? According to fangraphs, John Axford is the only veteran pitcher who has postive WAR, not yet been traded. Oliver Drake the recent waiver claimee also has a positive WAR. There can be unmentioned reasons that Axford made his first MLB start and Drake was claimed...

Drake has been terrible this season, and does not have a positive WAR. He was -0.3 with MIL, -0.2 with CLE, 0.0 with LAA, and is already -0.1 with TOR, for a total of -0.6. He's given up 40 hits and 10 walks in 27 IP.

Yeah. Drake's stuff looked very average. However, there's a huge part of luck in the line drives he gave over the first base bag. And it's not like winning matters right now.

Hey D.Gordon, where do you find those negative values on fangraphs....

Seems like the Orioles traded Bautista's friend Brad Brach to AA for $250K in international pool bonus money.
What will Baltimore do with that? Trade that back to the Yankees for some roster crunch semi-prospect?

To me comparing systems is only good for internet chatter.


I prefer the game results. Let the prospects get to AA, perform well and then play well in the majors. Borucki is a good example. He showed promise from the beginning, the injuries slowed his development drastically. He was added to the 40 man in Nov 2016 along with Alford and Urena. All 3 burned 2 options. Alford made the top 100 and has a few tools. Alford is having a similar season to Tellez's last year.

I believe in being patient with prospect development. The lack of progress last year by many was disappointing but I hoped it was just a longer adjusting period.

I suppose if they are good they will get there. Borucki, SRF, Harris and Romano. But pitching in the Majors is a much higher level.

Scottt you must be referring to Darren O'Day.

Those negative WAR figures for Drake come from baseball ref.

Could be.

Some interest from the Yankees for Granderson? Seems weird to me, but there would be no return.

Osuna traded to Astros apparantly

I really like the Osuna trade. 3 power pitchers in return.

Yankees traded Tyler Austin for Lance Lynn.

O-K.

Paulino was once the Astro’s #1 Prospect. He didn’t drop due to talent, that should still be there. Best evaluation occurs when they are added to the Jays top 30 list.

MLB has already added both Perez #11 between SRF and Borucki, Paulino #20 between McKinney and McGuire.

I agree with the top 4. Vlad, Bo, Jansen and Pearson if he gets healthy.