There's a lot to like about Teoscar Hernandez, but watching him play the outfield actually hurts my feelings.

There's a lot to like about Teoscar Hernandez, but watching him play the outfield actually hurts my feelings.
I just don't understand how ALL the reports on his defense were so wrong. It's like people saw one game and made assumptions.
In other news, he totally feels like an 80s throwback. Which is a fun thing.

maybe a reincarnation of George Bell. Ahhhh the good old days

We are getting hammered. If we win the series nobody will care.

maybe a reincarnation of George Bell.

Sort of - Teoscar is kind of starting out where George ended up - after the knee and shoulder injuries, after years of galloping around on the concrete at the old Ex every day.

Teoscar might still improve, right? It's not impossible.

In better news, Grichuk passes the eye test in CF, no?

If Happ's stock ticked back up in his last start, Hamels's is dropping fast. His ERA has climbed from 3.41 to 4.70 in his last five starts (including tonight's start -- 5 ER through 1.2 IP so far).

We have a Bad Biagini sighting. Been a while. At least he picked a good night for it, though. Give him that.

DeGrom is willing to sign a long extension with the Mets.
Thor has not been healthy this year.
Snell just hit the DL, so would seem crazy for the Rays to deal an affordable Archer.

Happ still looks like the best option out there.

The Yankees seems totally unwilling to trade any prospect with any value.
Oakland and Seattle don't seem to have the farm to make a move.
Seems like it will have to be the NL.

On the plus side, pretty much all the Jays trade candidate could be traded in August.

Happ's only had two bad starts in his last four (Tigers and Yankees). I can't imagine anyone who saw the game against Boston would blame him for his outing, and he did well against the sad sack Orioles.

Teams are smarter now. They will see his K rate, K/BB, FIP, etc, and put more stock on that than his ERA. The issue is that he's a rental, and teams are more reluctant to trade real prospects nowadays.

My guess is he goes to the NL (Philly, Brewers, Braves). The Brewers just lost a starter to TJS. They might be more desperate now.

Dan Shulman can make a 46-53 summer record seem great. He even makes Pat Tabler seem OK.

It's been said a million times around here but good grief the Jays need better permanent television guys. Unfortunately, Tabler and Martinez are signed for another two years I think.

Gurriel now with 6 straight multi-hit games. He doesn't walk and his fielding is a work in progress, but he looks like a major leaguer. He has also had very few reps in the minors or majors at any position so I expect improvements defensively. I think 2B is probably the best bet for him.

One of the big questions the Jays have is what to do with Devon Travis. It's hard to know where his true talent level lies because he's been hurt so often. His first two seasons were a bit fluky (super high BABIP despite high GB rate and mediocre hard hit rate) but he looked like a WRC+ 100 with good defense sort of guy which is very valuable at 2B and with a cheap contract. However, the last two years, he has settled into a WRC+ of 85-90 range with below average defense which is not valuable at all. It will be a very important couple of months for Travis. I think he can be better than this but if he doesn't improve, he's a hard guy to carry on a major league roster.

I think major teams have figured out how to throw to Travis, even though it took longer because of the injuries.

Travis can go the other way on outside fastballs and he can crush the inside breaking balls.
So teams are throwing the fastballs inside and the breaking balls away against him.

In his last 21 games, he's .266 .319 .409. That's not bad. Now he just need to stay away from the month long slumps.
Also, in the same period, Diaz has gone .313 .333 .500 and his defense is a tad better.

I've always been suspect of Travis' defense. Along with having the chronic knee issue, you cannot afford to go into a season with Travis as the primary option. It is certainly not a bad problem to have, but seeing how Travis has minimal or no trade value, and with Tulo coming back, you have to think they'll hopenhe gets hptnthe last two months and turn him into something.

How were the reports about Hernandez’s defence so wrong? If you see him play 2-3 times you might see 4-10 balls hit to his OF position. You can easily confuse athleticism with defensive skill and, as with Hernandez, the two aren’t always the same. It’s really hard to judge minor league OFs defence without seeing them play 10-20 games. Hernandez has tools to be a good defender but then again so did Alvis Woods.

Mike, I’m generally with you on Travis. I still think he may be the team’s best current position player. However, I’m not sure his above average defence has survived his injuries. I also don’t think Gurriel is a SS. I’d like to see him full time at 3rd for now and taking Solarte’s ABs.

Which scouting reports on Teoscar were so wrong? I found this one from when he was acquired.

"Defensively Hernandez is average at best in chasing down fly balls and tracking balls off the bat. He does, however, have a strong enough arm to play right field if needed in that role. His speed plays in the outfield, but he hasn’t quite mastered tracking the ball off the bat."

That kinda sounds like Teoscar to me.

https://www.fanragsports.com/blue-jays/pleskoff-scouting-report-teoscar-hernandez/

Mike, I have to disagree with you about Travis. I do not think he is a decent defender at second, I believe he is below average.

I am not sure about Gurriel at second but Gurriel has time on his side, he does not have many reps at second, I have more confidence that he could get better.

I see Travis, Hernandez and Solarte as being below average defenders.

Solarte also hits into a lot of double plays and doesn't run hard around the bases. I would be willing to move him, before Gurriel.

So the FO has to figure out the defense. Good defense is probably very important to this team.

I looked at this years SP results for NYY, Boston, TB and Toronto.

Toronto 1 SP over 100IP. Happ 114IP.

Boston 4 SPs C Sale, Porcello, Price and E Rodriguez. 135 IP -104 IP.


NYY 2 Severino 133IP and Sabathia 100IP.


TB Snell 119 IP and R Yarbrough 93 IP but they do that weird thing by giving starts to bullpen arms.


The health of the rotation seems most important. A stacked pen is also very helpful.

I think that the club agrees with you, Gerry.   Unfortunately, they won't be able to get much for Travis.  Which will pain them.

Well, it's not like the Jays gave up a lot to get Travis in the first place.

There isn't a single position player on this team (putting Donaldson to one side right now) that you could comfortably predict to be even an average player at his position next year. Why on earth would you get rid of either of Gurriel or Travis at all, let alone choosing Solarte over one of them? I'm not sure what the post injury Travis is just yet, but pre-injuries, he had demonstrated, over a decent number of ABs, to be an above average 2B. With this roster in this shape it would be some time before I gave up on him. The calculus would be different if the team were likely to be competitive in the near future. Its not.

And back Teoscar, yeah, Sickels had it wrong.

"He’s a very good defensive outfielder with a strong throwing arm and enough range for center field.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/8/16/12503098/mlb-rookie-report-teoscar-hernandez-of-houston-astros

Please don't misunderstand me but trades don't always work out. We definitely won the Travis trade. That was a mediocre acquisition. Maybe one day it will be great.

This off season we made only mediocre trades. Even our signings were mediocre. We gave up little and received surplus players. Diaz and Grichuk surplus to ST Louis. Solarte was surplus to a rebuilding SD.


This year P Dejong and the St Louis OF are not any better than Grichuk and Diaz.

Personally I would like to see what Gurriel Jr. get some reps in centre field. As an organization we have great depth around the infield, but some real questions out in the outfield.

Gurriel's stat cast sprint speed of 28.4 ft/s would put him middle of the pack for the position, which is very comparable to guys like Lorenzo Cain, AJ Pollock and Aaron Hicks. I think his arm is also strong enough so he has tools, but I would want to see if he has the instincts.

The team is truly horrible defensively. Teoscar does bring back memories of George Bell. If Teoscar can hit like Bell that would be Ok. I do hope his D improves- he is 25 so it is possible.

I really hope Smith Jr gets some regular AB's, I think if Granderson gets traded he should see more time.

The current IF was supposed to be an upgrade over the previous version- the bar was set pretty low so any improvement is a good thing.
I'm really torn on Travis. The potential is there, but Gurriel will probably replace him if he doesn't show any improvement. It would be great to see Tulo but I doubt he will play at all this year. :(

I started to go through some statcast numbers today to try and find some positives.

I never realized how much of a statcast darling Gurriel Jr is and how much Travis is not. Out of all second basemen with at least 50 PA Gurriel has a 0.375 xwOBA behind only Robbie Cano, Glyber Torres and Altuv . In comparison Devon Travis has 0.309 xwOBA and is ranked 29th.

Lourdes has some offensive things to work on too.  He is swinging at about 40% of pitches outside the zone.  It's hard to be successful for any length of time doing that.  Javier Baez does it.  Nicholas Castellanos does it.  And maybe Gurriel Jr. has the pop necessary to make that work for him too. 

Does anyone think that Gibbons and the coaching staff are responsible in part for the continual defensive screw ups that at one time or another involves just about every player at every poition with Luke Maile being the one possible exception?

Gurriel is definitely a free swinger with an average contact rate, but the quality of contact seems elite.

I checked Fangraphs and out of all 2nd baseman with at least 100 PA his swing% is 6th highest out of 58, and his contact% is 32 highest out of 58.

The horrible defence is a multi faceted problem. Signing players whose best position is DH/1B to play regularly around the diamond is a huge part of the problem. That responsibility lies mostly with this front office. But Gibbons wears a chunk of it too. He does not appear to understand that his pitchers have vastly different GB/FB tendencies. If you want to play Pearce in LF there is a huge difference in potential risk to that approach when Stroman is on the mound versus when Estrada is pitching. Gibbons has made no allowances for this.

Is Rivera a good 3rd base coach? Infield coach? To me, the great body of visual evidence suggests that he is not.

AA says Atlanta is not looking for rentals but players with more control - Stroman,Osuna,Oh,Tepera,Solarte should interest him.

Ironically, Osuna's suspension delays his FA a year somewhat negating his decrease in trade value due to his off field problems.

@joelsherman1
“Hear #Bluejays⁠ ⁠ pushing harder to move Happ and relievers likeAxford/Clippard to avoid getting too close to deadline with too much inventory it wants to move.“

I would hope Happ is moved before his next start.

Mike Mordecai is around, and he has a very good reputation as an infield coach. 

Does Gurriel actually need a position?  To me he looks like a legit utility man, although he has only ever played 2nd and SS, and a few innings at first, in North America.  When we signed him, I thought he was a super utility type, but the fact that the org hasn't played him at 3rd or in the OF even once makes me wonder. 

Gurriel was mainly an OF in Cuba so maybe they assume he is capable of playing there.

From MLB.com: "The Blue Jays are shopping players including J.A. Happ, Yangervis Solarte and Marco Estrada, but Toronto's asking price for its players "is extremely high," according to one executive."

Solarte is replacement level right now and in his 30's. The team options are attractive if he's a ~2 WAR player, but not when he's playing like this. It might be better to hold him and see if he has a good enough 2nd half to move in the winter, but he wasn't traded for much last winter and he's been worse so far this year. I wasn't expecting the team to move him, but with Gurriel's emergence it would clear some room.

That is what worries me......that they may be asking too much and may be left holding the bag as this is not really a sellers market. With players under control beyond this season, you can hold out but with the rentals, they should just take the best offer and get it done. Offers are not going to improve much between now and next week and some sellers may be left out.

You almost always hear that teams asking price is too high & eventually when the player gets traded the return is disappointing - I think the "high price" angle is usually propaganda from buyers hoping to lower the price.

In 2015/2016 combined, Travis played 163 games, just over a full season, and produced 5.3 WAR. I don't want to give upon a player like that who's only 27. His performance the last 2 years could be partly the league catching up to him a bit, but you often find that players will perform poorly in seasons where they miss a lot of time due to injury, which has certainly been the case for Travis. I still think he's their best bet at 2B, and I'd like to see how he performs next year in a hopefully healthy season.

I am not against using Gurriel as a super utility piece, but I think at the very least he needs to find a position he at least plays well. At this point he is not really a major league SS, and an average-ish second basemen with some improvement.

Gurriel's contract is starting to look pretty nice, if they can find a position for him. 5 more years, at an average of about $3.9 million. If he was an OF in Cuba, it's no wonder he's struggling somewhat in the middle of the infield - that's a hard transition. His hitting is starting to look good enough to warrant an OF spot, especially given the fact that he's only 24, and likely to improve from here. The Jays have an impressive pipeline of middle infielders, so I agree with moving Gurriel to the OF.

Both Devon Travis and Gurriel are well worth giving a fair bit more time to come into form. Travis started the season ice-cold, and has hit well since coming back from the DL in May (114 wRC+). I can't speak to his statcast numbers, since you can't create splits (afaik), but I recall his April as being an endless series of weak ground balls. I think he's probably a slightly below-average 2B now, but playable there, and valuable if he is going to hit at a slightly-above-average level.

As others have noted, Gurriel simply hasn't had a lot of reps defensively. I don't see anything wrong with his tools, and I think he ought to improve defensively as he has more time. I'm not convinced he can't be an adequate defensive SS, given time and improved consistency. A little more experience at the major league level and he should moderate his free-swinging tendencies a little too, though he'll never walk very much.

I like Gurriel as a super-utility guy.  Every team needs one of those but few have a good one for it.  If Gurriel can get established that way now as a kid then he should be great at it.

Watching the Bisons game, Estrada pulled in the 3rd after calling the trainer out, they looked at his hand/finger and was removed from the game.

Tellez also pulled after one at bat, no reason given, his first at bat was a pop fly to the first basemen, maybe he didn't run it out again.

I predict Happ is going to have to make one more start for the Jays -- and a fair bit rides on it. Trades of players in his position often go down to the eleventh hour.

If Happ doesn't get dealt, do the Jays make him a QO? I would think so.

You hear about GMs, like AA, proclaiming that they are not interesting in trading prospects for rental, but the truth of the matter is that there is no reason to trade a controllable player unless you're offered a clear overpay.
It's easier to trade those guys over the winter when there will be 20 potential buyers instead of 5.
Also, the priority now is to move guys that are at the end of their contract, discussing other guys is a distraction.

The offer for Happ has to be better than a QO.

For the others, you don't want to clog the 40 roster with marginal guys.

I hope Borucki stays in the Majors the rest of the year. Up and down is no good.

It looks like the Yanks landed Britton and might have given up Dillon Tate who was a likely Jays target in a Happ deal.

I'd think that the Jays would have passed on Tate. He's 24 in AA and not missing many bats.
Kinda like a more successful Harris.

I think Dillon Tate graded out closer to TJ Zeuch than Jon Harris, although Tate's groundball rate has dropped this year. Rogers was also given up in the deal and represents another 40 man issue the Yankees cleaned up.

One article said that the Jays were looking at the Yankees top prospects (mentioned Sheffield and Florial specifically) but now their price is dropping to more realistic levels. I don't think they were ever looking at Tate for Happ.

I will say that I'd be disappointed if Happ is still on the team on Friday (his next scheduled start). Every start he makes for the Jays is a start he can't make for another team. They need to pounce on the best offer and not risk him getting hurt. Teams know who he is. I doubt a good start against the White Sox is going to move the needle.

This has been a pretty disastrous outcome for the Jays. Donaldson hurt, Estrada hurt, Granderson falling off badly, Clippard being up and down, etc. They can still salvage this, but we are witnessing the risk of waiting the last minute to trade veteran players.

Well, Tate is listed at 6'2", Harris at 6'4" and Zeuch at 6'7".
Tate has changed his mechanics when he was with Texas, but reverted back with New York.
Currently he's got move velocity but less movement on his pitches.
I don't think he's very predictable. It would really help to see what he can do in AAA.

Does Gurriel actually need a position? To me he looks like a legit utility man -- (jerjapan, July 24 2018 @ 02:26 PM EDT) I am not against using Gurriel as a super utility piece, but I think at the very least he needs to find a position he at least plays well. At this point he is not really a major league SS, and an average-ish second basemen with some improvement. (Shoeless Joe, July 24 2018 @ 04:05 PM EDT) If Gurriel can get established that way now as a kid then he should be great at it. (John Northey, July 24 2018 @ 04:41 PM EDT)
Can comparing Gurriel Jr. with Astros' Marwin Gonzalez shed lights on whether Gurriel can become great in the future. Based purely on Gonzalez' progression path, Gurriel would hit 10 plus homeruns in 2020 and repeat Gonzalez' stellar season in 2022. However, Gonzalez has already regressed much so far into the current 2018 season so Gurriel's 2023 season could also spell regression.
Sorry if I spoil the party but can playing him in Buffalo help progress him faster? The PAs in about five seasons that the Astros have given Gonzalez would be given to other Jays' players if Jays put Gurriel Jr. in Buffalo instead.

I'll take the contrarian position and say there is no need to trade people on the team. I agree we should be shopping people and open to trades, but picking up a non-prospect or two for our players just isn't that important. Keeping the prices high makes sense. If you don't get value, don't make the trade.

For someone like Donaldson it is unlikely there is a market worth more than a QO, and we'll be making a QO unless the current injury is very likely career ending, so a trade there is unlikely to make sense (although if someone does want to overpay, sure, make the trade).

Similarly for most players on the team like Solarte, if there is a trade for actual value, sure you can make the trade, but if the trade is for some 25 year old AA relief pitcher who has never been in a team's top 10 prospects, there is no reason to need to make that trade.

You might argue there are a few contracts the Jays would be happy to trade (Morales, Tulo, Martin) but again, there is likely to be little market, so a trade there is unlikely to make sense.

Pretty much the only likely possible trade chit is Happ, and again if we have the chances for a QO or extension, then the return needs to be high enough to be worth it. And if it isn't, keep Happ instead.

In other words, we should be open to trades, but only when we get real value (not pretend value) back, and that means high prices are indeed what we should be sticking to. I don't think the front office will have failed if nothing materializes, but do think they will fail if they trade folks for effectively nothing. So be willing sellers, but not desperate motivated sellers.

"In other words, we should be open to trades, but only when we get real value (not pretend value) back, and that means high prices are indeed what we should be sticking to. I don't think the front office will have failed if nothing materializes, but do think they will fail if they trade folks for effectively nothing. So be willing sellers, but not desperate motivated sellers."

I agree completely. There is a level of prospect that is not worth getting and is available widely as minor league free agents. If you get a lottery ticket in A-ball, some of those turn out so it's worth trading for but trading veterans just to get bodies is pointless. Additionally, as a GM, you have to play a bit of a long game. If teams know that you are desperate and will trade value for nothing, they won't offer you real prospects because they know you'll cave.

Trading Granderson would open a spot for a Buffalo outfielder to be promoted. They should make that move even if the return is light.

I don't think they want to bring Jansen up before September, so trading Maile isn't a factor.

At some point, Donaldson will return, which will take ABs from someone.
That could be the motivation for testing Solarte's market.
All is needed is a placeholder for Guerrero in April.
They might want to try more of Diaz at third, Gurriel at short.

There's no reason to hang on to Axford, Clippard and the like.
Osuna and Barnes will be back shortly.

Who is on the trade block now, considering JD and Estrada are injured? Happ, Grandy, Solarte, Clippard, Axford, Garcia are either reported or obvious. Now who of those has "value"? Other than Happ, it's rather nebulous. Except for Garcia who probably has negative value.

A team like Philly may be willing to take one, but will also want to absorb the contract and offer almost nothing. Ideally you find a team with both need and financial constraints to be able to get anything other than a low-upside prospect that has to be 40-manned. And even those teams may not be offering more now with so many other low-value, small-contract players available from other sellers.

Soon it will be August. So Dog days of August may be a theme around the league. Even the Minors.

How will the pitching staffs handle August. Quality depth should be most important in August. Boston and Houston have very strong rotations and pens. Maybe Cleveland too.


Some of our minor league starters are also going to face August issues. The SPs that have been healthy like Zeuch, 21 starts 125 IP.

I believe V strong pitching is the route for the Jay's success. Rotation and pen. I see us getting that because our farm is deep in pitching. I don't know defense vs offense value. I am working on trying to understand some kind of optimal valuation/conclusion.


Reading Nigel's posts about too many 1B/DH on the roster makes a lot of sense. Also it seems players age into 1B/DH types.


My construction then gets us into the playoffs. Only strong teams will be playing. Good Pitching defeats good hitting ie Nobody hits. They defeat my team in the playoffs by scoring unearned runs.

I don't understand the desire to trade a controllable asset like Solarte.

I mean, I would be down for trading him if we could get something back that would make the team better, but that won't happen, so just keep him.

As for Happ et all... yeah, trade 'em all, for whatever you can get.

Even a 2 WAR Solarte is an asset. A 0 WAR Solarte, not so much. Add in the fact he's not exactly the best role model for the kids with his instances of lack of hustle (or even "fake-hustle" as FG's Zimm termed it yesterday in his chat).

Not surprised the FO has him on the the trade block.

If Houston wants to repeat against that Yankee BP, then they'd better get moving - the price for Osuna should go up.

Considering his lame-duck status,what the Tigers got for JD last year and Zach Britton's injury filled year, I think Dan Duquette did well for the Orioles in the 2 trades. Interesting to think how Duquette would have fared in Toronto if Angelos had let him take the job.

Even if the Jays waited too long to move Happ (which remains to be seen), I can't imagine a scenario where they are offered less than the equivalent of a comp pick for him. Even a couple of B level lottery tickets are more valuable than a comp pick. Donaldson is a different story as he is hurt and no guarantee a good trade offer will be out there in August if he's healthy.

I think roster clearing trades involving players like Granderson who are older and blocking minor leaguers on the 40-man from getting a look (DSJ, Pompey) can be moved for marginal returns. I doubt too many teams are looking at him or Clippard as missing pieces. But the Jays will have to hit some home runs when the opportunity presents itself, and Happ is the one guy they have that chance with. They should also have Oh, Tepera, and others on the block. It doesn't mean they have to trade them, but now that the team has established itself as being bad, they have to start prioritizing this trade deadline, this coming winter, and next trade deadline to maximize returns on any player not on the 2020 timeline.

If nothing else, I hope this trade deadline has shown that they have to be decisive with Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna. Either you want them around in 2020-beyond or you don't, and if it's the latter, then don't wait until they are two months from free agency before moving them. That's going to be critical.

Given that I expect a significant drop in team budget next year to go along with the fall in revenue, shedding players with sizable salaries next year I think will be a factor for the Jays even if the return is disappointing - Solarte for example has a 5.5M option - I can see the team moving him and giving that playing time to younger,cheaper options like Guirrel/Diaz especially if they expect Tulo to play and maybe Donaldson to return. Still expect an August Donaldson trade if he returns and is productive.

I'm fairly confident fans are going to be disappointed with the trade deadline... teams are not getting much value in return for players. Britton's return was "meh" -- a B-level arm, a future reliever and a third piece that isn't of any significance. The Jays tradeable assets are either hurt or under-performing, which means the price will be undercut even more. Axford and Clippard won't bring back anything - they'll be toss ins on a bigger deal if anything. Estrada will have to be dealt after the July 31 deadline (or for a PTBNL based on his performance the rest of the year). Happ might get one B-level guy back with a C-level lottery player. Granderson is probably one C-level lottery player. Same for Maile. Solarte might bring a couple of lower level guys. If I was a contender I wouldn't be looking at anyone on the Jays as a key addition - they're complementary players at best on a good team.

True Marc. But in the NL there are more contenders. Just being in a pennant race I think generates interest and revenue. A few minor moves to add insurance are valuable during the stretch run. S Pearce for example can be a valuable part time offensive talent.
Granderson would be similar. Low return for Granderson. An extra experienced arm in the pen for Sept when rosters expand. Again return is low.

Lets see what happens.

Eovaldi to Red Sox for a solid prospect. Rays always win trades. I like this trade for both sides.

Arms race between NYY and BOS. Hopefully Happ goes to NYY for top prospect and Osuna to Red Sox or Astros for Whitley.

Happ/Solarte to NYY for Sheffield
Osuna/Tepera to HOU for Whitley

Jalen Beeks gets traded for Nathan Eovaldi. Against it seems like prospects outside the top 5in the org are getting moved for rentals.

Yeah...so my suggestions are probably a little too heavily favored to a Blue Jays return. I am of the camp though that you don't make the trade unless you can sweeten the return with a better prospect.

The Eovaldi is a perfect comp for a Happ trade... you'll get similar results from both pitchers. Neither is a big game pitcher but both have potential go on a nice run... and Eovaldi got a B level prospect.

Whitely is one of the top 5 arms in the minors... and in no way goes for Osuna and Solarte.

I highly doubt that the Jays would consider trading Maile.
It appears that Oh is not being made available either although that could change.

I agree that the overall returns will be disappointing.

It always seemed Sheffield was out of play from the Yankees , but I would have thought Happ (and offsetting cash) could have pulled in Snider (my preferred target). And that worked for me, because I'm a sucker for bat speed. I'm just hoping they can still get that much. Hopefully the injury histories caused significant discounts on Britton and Eovaldi.

I never really subscribed to the idea the Jays should focus on pitching at the deadline vs overall talent - I still think the upcoming core needs more pieces, and that Toescar should be retricted to your third best OF.

I'm still hoping Donaldson makes it through waivers just after the deadline, healthens up and gets on a tear for the end of August - The Braves have a couple of very interesting CFs (Pache, Waters) and a lot of pitching in the back part of their prospect lists. Hey, a guy can dream...

Catchers often get injured and depth is always required. As one of the best defensive C's in the game imo, I would be much more inclined to keep Maile than to trade him. We don't yet know what Jansen or McGuire will do at the major league level. Instead, the Jays should be making every possible effort to move Martin even if it menans eating 90% of his salary. I don't expect that to happen this year but it may be in play in 2019.

Spifficus, it seems to me that the Jays desperately need close to major league ready starting pitching.

They do, but this isn't the only way to get that. There's also FA signings, or trading pieces that don't fit in. Most importantly, if the fit's not there, don't force it - if Sheffield isn't available, don't lock yourself into pitching and get a Domingo German if you don't think he's the right return.

Ok.....but only B level prospects are going to be available for anyone Jays want to trade at this time, so all being equal I would go for the pitching. It does not make sense to me to deal for an infielder or catcher if there is any other near equal possibility at the pitching or OF positions.

I'll take the big righty with up to four plus pitches and decent command, especially if the stimulant version of events is true. Of course, Whitley isn't actually available for anything sane, so it's a moot point.

We're talking about 2 sides of the same thing - if all other things are equal, choose the need (I just happen to think OF is probably a bit more of a need). My point was that if things aren't equal, don't force it, or go for quantity to make up for quality.

but I would have thought Happ (and offsetting cash) could have pulled in Snider (my preferred target).

Who's Snider?

It appears that Happ is not that highly regarded outside of TO.

Hah! That's what I get for relying on memory - I meant Frazier. I have no idea why Snider popped into my brain (or which Snider, for that matter). I need more coffee.

And I'm sure Happ's reasonably regarded throughout - he's a high-K lefty with some homer issues and doesn't go deep into games. He's a low-end #2 / good #3 starter, and I'm sure he's looked at about that way.

Unless there's an actual return for eating 90% of Martin's salary or management believes he will not be a good teammate when the team is ready to integrate Jansen into the lineup, there's no reason to make that move. The savings would amount to $2.5m.

If the rest of baseball really doesn't want to part with tangible value for Happ to improve their playoff chances, that will work in the Jays favour when the season is over and they have an exclusive window to work out a 2 or 3 year deal. The tight races in the NL should provide more than enough buyers for Happ's services, though.

What the Jays need is for the races to tighten - have Wash/St.Louis/San Fran go on winnings streaks.

I wouldn't take German even up for Happ from Yankees but I would accept a package of German and Chance Adams whose stock has dropped but is still a good prospect imo. I do think a trade to an NL team is more likely but I wouldn't be waiting. He should be dealt before his next scheduled start as offers are not likely to get better if he is decent but will get worse or be non existent if he falters. I do not see Happ as a 2 or 3 on a contending team but closer to a 4.

I think Osuna gets you a ton. Look at what SD got for Hand. He should get more than the NYY got for Chapman since Osuna is under control for longer. He should get at least what the NYY received for Andrew Miller. AL East proven closers that pitch in hitters parks are very valuable, especially with years of control left. You don't think Houston would trade Whitley for Kimbrel + a solid back up like Solarte? Osuna + Solarte is a better value deal for them.

If the Astros (or any other team) think that they are one piece away from a championship and Happ is the difference then they will over pay. What good is it to have Whitley or any prospect if you won't be as strong for his core years. There's obviously debate as to whether a team will have "windows" of contention, but there should be no debate that only a few teams have the management that has been able to have consistent windows.

"consistent windows" = very wide and long windows of contention. NYY, BOS, CLE, CHC, STL, SF. Throw out arguments like "Chicago was terrible for years" or "CLE was terrible for years" or "NYY and BOS spend money to keep longer windows." The point is that these organizations, going forward will likely be able to maintain long windows of contention and are less likely to trade top prospects that can contribute during their lengthy windows.

Some of these organizations are so stacked and well run that they can afford to trade away a Sheffield or Whitley without worrying about sacrificing opportunities to contend in future years.

I don't think they trade Whitley, no. It's more likely he's a key member of their bullpen within a month, and then in their rotation in the second half of next year.

Osuna doesn't get full value until this issue is dealt with, in the rear view mirror, and is pitching again. That won't be until August, and he isn't making it through waivers at that point.

Happ doesn't get a Whitley-type prospect. No rental does these days. In an overpay, you may maybe-possibly get to Yordan Alvarez. Maybe. Maaaaaybe. Pretty sure he's on the tier above what you can get, though.

"consistent windows" = very wide and long windows of contention. NYY, BOS, CLE, CHC, STL, SF.

No way SF has a long window of contention. And probably not a couple of others on the list either.

SF has had a very long window of contention and as such their management should be considered as one of the few capable of that.

SF will probably be forced to rebuild. Posey, Madbum and Longoria will probably test free agency.

I expect the retirement/decline of Y Molina one day will knock St Louis down.

Consistent or long windows are just correlations to highest payrolls. Cleveland is the outlier by virtue of being in a division with only one other team willing to spend enough to be considered even a middle class payroll. Nothing in baseball correlates with winning over the long term like payroll.

Agreed Nigel. That is why the jump in payroll in 2013 is a significant decision. We now have a chance to compete with Boston and NYY.

We were better in 2015 and 2016 but they were in some kind of transition.

I said it wrong. Not consistent or long windows. Probably. But we have to be better than TB. I hope.

Stay close to your PC, Marc Feinsand says the Jays are close to moving JA Happ.

I stand ready to be meh!

Thanks for the heads up Gerry! I am going to predict to the Yanks and an off the wall prediction that Forrest Whitlock will be in the deal.

Garret Whitlock rather...

I'm guessing Brewers.

I'm gonna go and guess that someone else will be going with Happ (either an infielder or Granderson, depending on the needs of the team acquiring), in an effort to improve the return. Solarte or Diaz if it's an infielder. If it's the Brewers, they could use a 2B. Maybe even add in an RP to really improve the return (Axford).

Happ's next start should be Friday. So today is a good day to be traded.

Brewers have been 28th in WAR for 2nd baseman and 30th for short, so Travis and/or Diaz as add-ons to a Happ deal makes a lot of sense.

Happ is in the dugout at the Jays game so nothing is that imminent. If something happens it probably will be after the game.

Oakland for an infielder.

I’m going with the Brewers as well. The moment Domingo Santana was demoted I called the Jays trading for him, so I’ll go with Santana and a minor leaguer as my guess.

If those players were involved, then likely not playing today

Saw on twitter that Domingo Santana was pulled after two at bats in his AAA game this morning, so could be the Brewers. That would be a lot of K's in the OF if that happens.

So much for appearing close... *impatiently taps foot*

I'm going to stick with my wishful thinking and say the Yankees for Frazier and a starter either on or will have to be on the 40-man. And a Snider if they have one, because why not.

Of course, it'll probably be the Brewers, since they have the most need/desperation.

The Brewers also lost a starter to TJS recently, and have a glut of outfielders. Brett Phillips or Santana would make sense as a piece, but I'd hope they add a minor leaguer or two on top of that.

If the Jays really want to prioritize the best possible piece in any return with the Brewers, I'd be willing to simply add whatever it takes for Hiura. Happ/Travis/couple of RP/Solarte, etc. I like the Santana idea too.

That's probably aiming too high, but a man can dream...

I will guess Happ and Osuna packaged together for a return centered on a "next tier down from the top" prospect. So Not Mejia level but better than what the Sox gave up today.

Happ's next scheduled start is Saturday. Looking more like it won't be with Jays. I will also go with Brewers.

Sounds like a Happ trade could be imminent, per MLBTR.

I would say more 'nearly imminent-adjacent', given how things have seemed to back up a bit over the past hour.

The situation could be that final offers are in as requested and Jays are deciding. That could be why many think it is near imminent.

from Steve Phillips:

Sources indicate #Jays close to a deal with Seunghwan Oh. Could happen tonight.

@JonHeyman
2 minutes ago
Jays originally sought Clint Frazier or Justus Sheffield for Happ. That was when yanks saw happ price as too high. Can’t see nyy doing that for rental, and they’ve offered others. Still talking. Brewers also interested. M’s, too. Maybe cubs, others.

Yeah. Sounds like many teams including Yankees and Cubs are involved.
Hopefully there's a bit of an auction going on.

Davidi also reports that an Oh trade is close.

Morosi tweets that Oh to the Rockies is close.

Rockies? That's just cruel to Oh.

Oh apparently has left Toronto's bullpen a few minutes ago.

I'm cautiously hopeful we'll get a better return for Oh than the others, given his effectiveness this year and reasonable option.

Word is Oh to the Rockies is a done deal. Perhaps after the Jays-Twins game is over we'll hear who the prospect(s) headed to Toronto are.

Looks like a sweep for the Twins.

This article says the return for Oh is Chad Spanberger and Sean Brouchard.

https://www.bsndenver.com/colorado-rockies-acquire-elite-reliever-in-trade/

Sean Bouchard would seem to be the correct spelling.

Again, this is just based on that one article -- may not be accurate.

I saw this elsewhere as well. Mike Wilner had reported that Arden Zwelling has found out that these two prospects had been lifted from game action early.

"I saw this elsewhere as well. Mike Wilner had reported that Arden Zwelling has found out that these two prospects had been lifted from game action early."

Gameday could be wrong but it has Bouchard playing the 2nd game of the double header and he hit a HR.

Bouchard is playing right now and I doubt the Jays would acquire two low-A (and overaged) first baseman... with modest potential. Sounds less like journalism and more trying to guess their way into a scoop.

The pen had a bad day today. I would expect reinforcements.

Yeah, I looked them up,too and wondered the same thing. I read the Wilner thing on a hockey site as well.

MLBTR:

7:54PM: Minor league first baseman Chad Spanberger is expected to be heading to the Blue Jays as part of the trade, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports (Twitter link). A sixth-round pick for Colorado in the 2017 draft, Spanberger is ranked 24th on MLB.com’s list of the top 30 Rockies prospects, with the scouting report noting Spanberger’s big power potential but also quite a few strikeouts.

Morales needs to get back on the mound. It's the perfect solution. The Jays need more losses and the pitchers don't want to tarnish their numbers.

I'd expect an arm thrown in as well, otherwise it's a tad light.
Spamburger is 6'3", 235 lb and probably fits better at DH than at 1B.

MLBTR:

8:02PM: Another first base prospect, Sean Bouchard, is also heading to Toronto in the deal, as per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.

Basically, a younger, shorter, heavier version of Tellez with even more power but less hit tool.

The 1B in the Minors needs that much help?

They have Smoak for another year, after that Tellez should get a shot, but it's always good to have positional depth.

Oh deal makes sense. This management team’s fetish for DH/1B types must be satisfied. I suspect the plan is to try both of them as LFs:)

Oh Nige! You made me laugh out loud there!

On a serious note, does JA make his next start?

Spanberger has been hot of late. In July he's hitting .370/.434/.616.

Bouchard's offensive numbers have been trending upward overall, too (890 and 832 OPS in June and July versus 743 and 605 in April and May).

Both overaged and playing in a cozy park. Neither player is better than Noda and I doubt Bouchard is better than Clemens... weird return for Oh.

According to Steve Phillips: "Sources indicate that #Jays focusing on finalizing deal with #Yankees for JA Happ."

The Yankees have a lot of depth in their system but Cashman very rarely makes bad deals or trades top prospects, so I am both curious and terrified of what the Jays will get back if it happens.

Count me as underwhelmed with the return for Oh and I probably like Noda better than both - since I expect Vlad to be the Jays 1B of the future - would rather have picked up the cheap option on Oh and try to flip next year or just add Oh as a sweetener in another deal.

Everyone assumes its those two players being traded by Colorado because they were pulled in game one of a DH. But Bouchard played in game two. Would a traded player play in a game? Spanberger didn't play in game two but Bouchard did. Are we jumping to conclusions off a box score?

I wouldn't mind one of the 1B (Spanberger looks more intriguing of the two), but I don't see the point in getting both. That would be underwhelming for Oh who has a cheap option for next year which should in theory make him a lot more valuable.

Multiple sources are quoting these two names... could be that Boucher was allowed to play with the club losing both 1B options in the deal, being the lesser of the two prospects... I mean, Boucher is not really good so if he got hurt the trade would probably still go through.

Maybe both were pulled from the 1st game because the Jays were deciding between the 2 players

Just comparing Chad Spanberger with Andres Galarraga, both players have almost the same height and close enough weights. So far in Spanberger's career, his Single A's OPS is higher than Galarraga's.

Fans always over rate what their own players are going to get back. Oh is a pretty good middle reliever. You aren't going to get much back for that. If you had to give up a good prospect, you'd just go get a pretty good reliever from another team.

Report that Jays like Drury. That I would not like. He's a major leaguer but he's a 26 yo replacement level player who plays If positions where the Jays already have depth. As a Second piece, fine but Jays need to be going for prospects or younger major leaguers.

I don’t overrate what is a reasonable return for Oh. C or C+ lottery tickets for middle relievers is to be expected. Why you would want 2 players of this ilk I don’t know. I just wish the front office would make more moves that suggest that they appreciate that player value includes base running and defence.

I could see the Jays preparing to trade Smoak in the off season and using these minor leaguers as depth. Maybe Tulo becomes our 1B. I know Jeff Blair reported at the time of trade that the plan was to eventually move Tulo off SS because of his bat. That was when AA thought he would have a hall of fame offensive player.

To be fair, almost all position player draft picks that have gotten real money have been up the middle guys. They gave Pat Morris $200 K out of high school. The C's 1B Brodt got $5 K.

My issue with the rumored deal is the fact that both are 1B. If one was an equally flawed infielder or OF or pitcher, etc, then I'd be fine with it. First base prospects are the least attractive prospects possible. Spanberger seems to have legit power so he'd fit the lottery ticket mold nicely even though he's old for his current level, but diversify the return a bit and it would look better.

Dan ZIPS at FG's take on the deal

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-rockies-take-on-final-boss/

So who moves up to Dunedin, Noda or Spanberger?

Well, Noda's played 4 games in centre this year, so.... This could get entertaining.

Spanberger's numbers look quite impressive at first glance. The home/road splits tell a bit of a different story. His road numbers are decent, but nothing exciting. Not sure exactly how much of a hitters' park Ashfield is. He obviously can run, as he has 16 SB's vs 4 CS this year, and he has 3 triples. The strikeouts are high, but not alarmingly so for a power hitter. He doesn't walk much and doesn't hit lefties well. I'd say he's an OK pick up, but nothing special. Bouchard doesn't interest me at all. His road numbers are not good for a 22 year old in A ball. He doesn't hit righties well, doesn't walk much, and is a poor percentage base stealer. I agree Clemens is likely better. With the extra year on Oh's contract, I thought the Jays might have done a little better than this, maybe if you sub a half decent A ball starter prospect for Bouchard, that would be what I expected.

Ashfield is reported to be 320 feet in right field.

Not surprised at the Drury interest - I expect the FO to be very frugal with spending this winter and spending about 18m on a QO for Donaldson seems risky to me.

-JD returns and spends another injury riddled season on the DL -
-JD returns,mostly healthy but like Jose is a shell of his MVP season
-JD returns, is productive but in july contending teams are offering a similar package to what Detroit got for Martinez
-JD is blocking Vlad Jr. whom you have to play somewhere else and doesn't get reps at 3B
all in the hopes that JD returns healthy,productive and you can flip him for talent in july

Drury can keep 3B warm until Vlad arrives, no rush if Drury is productive you can hold off on Vlad maybe until after super 2 - can move Drury to 2B or outfield or flip him to another team - with his stint in minors Drury still has 4yrs control I think and is cheap - also the Yankees saw something they liked about him last year and I think he will be a productive player.

V good point 85bluejay. 2019 JD is a gamble. JD himself would want to rebuild his value. It would help if he could play a little this year.

I like Spanbergers power and batted ball profile.

Oh has been good and was cheap, but let's not forget that he failed a medical with the Rangers, so there's nothing guaranteed about his production next year.

I'm pretty sure JD declines the QO and sign somewhere for 50M.
At any rate, he needs to return this year and put some numbers up.

I like Drury less than Solarte, less offense, better defense, but potentially a downer in the clubhouse.
Maybe if someone had offered something interesting for Solarte...
I'd rather have Solarte in April, but come June when Guerrero is at the hot corner and the backup rarely plays, Drury might be better. At least he won't bring down the Spanish speakers.

Ultimately, taking Drury is more doing the Yanks a favor than getting value.
By next year, Drury will be arbitration eligible and only offers replacement value.

"It's a cut below the Midwest League."

Mike, isn't the Sally the same level as the Midwest, just with different parent orgs?

The Sally is more hitter friendly due to park factors.

I would be more upset with Spanberger if he was the main part of a Happ deal, but for Oh I am ok with it. He seems to have the raw hitting tools that this front office covets, and apparently hits the ball extremely hard. Yes he is too old for the Sally league and isn't proven, but its his first full year in pro ball and he hasn't failed yet.

Spanberger would be awesome in Colorado where the ball just flies out.

Technically yes, but at least historically the Midwest League offered a higher level of competition with many more clubs sending collegians there.  That may no longer be true.

The Oh deal is Forrest Wall, Spanberger and a PTBNL, according to Heyman.

As I said above it made no sense for the Jays to have acquired Boucher when he was still playing in games. How many trade analyses were posted with the wrong players?

Forrest Wall could be interesting (certainly a lot more interesting than Bouchard). I always prefer quality over quantity, but considering it's Oh we are talking about, these 2 pieces and a PTBNL doesn't sound too bad to me.

Like I said earlier, everyone is in such a hurry to try and break the news of a deal that they look for things that often aren't there... relieved to hear Wall over Bouchard as there is at least some athleticism and defensive skill there, even if the bat screams part-time role. This is a decent return for Oh -- not as good as the Smith return but respectable.

Can the status of PTBNL be traded among teams? For example, batter Urshela and pitcher Gaviglio were traded for PTBNLs. If  the trading away Oh gets 3 batters in return, can that PTBNL -- the third batter --- be traded to the Indians?

Oh (no pun intended) thank god!

So, that's a 45fv back of top 10, and 40fv 20-30, each with one plus tool (Wall's speed and Spanberger's power). That return for Oh makes perfect sense, and offers surprising upside given their ages. This is far from the rumors where Spanberger was the top piece with Bouchard - that was leaving me shake my head and scared of what we might see with a Happ deal.

The only downside of Forrest Wall is that he will be rule 5 eligible this offseason, although he likely won't be selected and the Jays might get another year to evaluate him.

Spanberger,Wall plus a PTBNL does change things - I liked Wall in his draft year and jays are buying low - Spanberger represents a good challenge for the development team - if he cuts down that swing & miss some, he could be asset & this FO likes players that hit the ball hard - interesting to see PTBNL - maybe from 2018 draft.

The PTBNL isn't a 2018 draftee - that's no longer a thing with the advent of the Trea Turner rule (lowered the hold time to 6 months, but players can no longer be a PTBNL within that period).

I'd be ecstatic if the third piece ended up being something, but odds are it isn't... and doesn't need to be.

From JJ Cooper of Baseball America:

Had scouts tell me they figured Rockies were showcasing Chad Spanberger for a trade when they kept him in LoA all year. Was too advanced for Sally League, but it worked.

I like Wall/Spanberger over the original rumored deal (Bouchard). Adding two 1B did not make any sense so this seems a lot more reasonable.

Forrest Wall scouting report at 2080 ball.

Here is an excerpt:

Following shoulder surgery in high school that left him without much arm strength, his throwing is stretched considerably in center field. The transition to the outfield is a work in progress, and his routes and reads off the bat don’t look like they will play at the position. Wall will likely always have the ability to fill in at second base or center in a pinch, but the only place he looks capable of playing regularly at the big league level is left field.

Especially 2 overage 1B in low-A (when the org already has one of those)

According to MLB.com, that's the Rockies 13th and 24th best prospects, plus the PTBNL. Can quibble with the quality of the system, and certainly each of the guys have a hole or two in their game, but the fact they each have a plus skill means if they can iron out the holes they have a chance to be something. That seems pretty decent for a guy like Oh. Here's hoping Atkins makes a few more deals with RP for packages similar to this. The more lottery tickets, the better.

I love the way the Tampa Bay Rays have handled their personnel this year.  Thoughtful and creative with pretty decent results to show for it. 

If it weren't for those factors the Jays would not be getting Wall - just like McGuire & Ramirez from Pittsburgh - it's now up to player development & player himself

Hope the Jays can get the Happ deal done today, so they can concentrate on the market for Stroman & Osuna - I also hope that last year's miss is an incentive to get aggressive.

Maybe Luke Maile for Drury? interesting

If Drury is included in a Happ or Happ/Maile deal, is he a Toeoscar or an Aoki? I mean is he a guy we want or a guy the Yankees want to get rid of?

I'm really confused as to why a Happ deal would be "centered" around Brandon Drury. Considering what Nate Eovaldi just netted the Rays, if the Jays get less than that for Happ, I'll be extremely disappointed and surprised.

I do think if it's the Yankees there's a lot of value in sending a Maile or something along with, and get Martin to mentor Jansen for the next year and change.

I would prefer to keep Maile. If Drury acquired, Solarte and maybe another IF could be then be moved.

According to Heyman, a Happ/Yankees deal is "being finalized".

Yeah, a below-average 2B coming into 3 years of arbitration isn't exactly what I'd call a centrepiece for a Happ deal. If he's the only commonly-known name, that's different, but if he's the core value? I'll take the draft pick... or another deal... or the 8 extra fans that might come out for keeping him. I mean, unless he finds a new talent level, he's a non-tender risk next offseason.

I see nothing appealing about Brandon Drury. He doesn't hit the ball hard, hits a lot of ground balls, doesn't walk much and doesn't play even average defence.

I think s straight Maile for Drury deal makes sense for moving around depth pieces but I would want a heck of a lot more in a Happ trade.

Based on what Sherman is saying, it isn't necessarily 'centered' on Drury, but he would be one of two players coming to the Jays.

Hopefully the other is a legit prospect.

It had better be a real prospect if Toronto is going to take Drury off their hands.

Apparently the Cleveland people really liked Drury when Shatkins were with the Indians - almost traded for him - one thing I've learned is that FO types still love a player even after the glow is gone - many times FO have acquired a player they liked years after his decline.

Looks like Drury and Billy McKinley. If this is it very underwhelming. Not sure why the Jays need another so-so major league infielder. Would much prefer prospects.

Heyman is saying it might be Billy McKinney.

That would be good news, I think.

(Yankees fans are angry, which is good.)

We freak out a lot before the full extent of deals are public. This FO has done OK so far.

If that's the return... I don't dislike McKinney, but holy crap that's gross.

I'll wait until it's official, but if the deal is Drury and McKinney, then I'm not a fan.

from Ken Rosenthal:

#Yankees getting J.A. Happ for Drury and Billy McKinney, per @Feinsand and @JonHeyman. Drury alone would be quite a score for #BlueJays. He is 25 with three more years of control, albeit with nowhere to play in NY. Happ is 35 and a rental.

Apparently it's official now, McKinney and Drury for Happ.

That's very disappointing. I think Drury might be better than his number let on, but was hoping to score one of the Yankees intriguing lower level pitching prospects. This is a limited upside move unless one of the two become a lot better than they've shown so far.

There is a logjam in the infield. Maybe Solarte is on the way out.

Yankees getting rid of their 40 roster problems - too many rule v picks last few years

There has to be more to the deal than just those two.

I don't know what you all expected. You do remember that Happ is a free agent after this season, right?

Personally, I am glad they got ANYTHING for him. McKinney is a legit prospect having a down year. Drury is fungible, but we are trading very little.

If the only choice is expect a team to overpay or get nothing, you are going to be disappointed very often.

McKinney seems closer to a non-prospect than a prospect at this point. If it's just those 2, the Jays FO sees more in Drury than I do. I just don't understand it, especially with Solarte/Diaz/Travis/Gurriel already on the roster, Urena in AAA, and the loaded infield at AA that is on the way.

I'd expect more for Happ than the right to start paying Drury actual money to take the Super out of Super Utility.

Brandon Drury cannot even play at a level to that of Devon travis either defensively or offensively.

Bob Nightingale is saying the Yankees paid 'a steep price' for a rental.

Bob Nightengale's wrong. McKinney's an ok second, but I don't understand the Drury fascination. Not at all.

Drury plays 3B reasonably well. Other than an absent Josh Donaldson, can we say that about anyone else on the Team?

Yankees fans are upset about losing McKinney (why, I don't think I understand), and national writers keep saying this a high price for a rental (presumably because Drury has shown he can play the infield with a league average bat and is 25 with 4 years of control left). Still. It's a bit of a surprising choice to prioritize that over upside, and quite unlike the current FO. Which makes me wonder what else is coming.

Have to think they are going to move Solarte, because Drury and Solarte seem extremely redundant on this team.

The media is overrating the Yankees players (surprise). This is a bad deal. I like the return for Oh significantly better. McKinney can't hit. Heck, the Astros almost gave up more for Martin Maldonado.

If a Player has an off year, too many people consider that the new norm rather than an outlier season. It gets much worse if an injury is involved.

This seems to be a really strange deal from this front office. I really don't get it. What's the optimistic way to look at Brandon Drury?

Gio Urshala. Also, he's cheaper, and already in the system.

There needs to be something untapped in Drury for this to be decent. Otherwise, he's a player whose career high fWAR was 1.0 (1.6 bWAR), is in the middle of a down year, with nowhere to play, and is going to enter arbitration in the offseason. I have to be missing something, because otherwise he's a Part of the Problem type player (taking up playing time, being mediocre, costing money), not a chance at Part of the Solution (or a non-interference one, at least).

We're taking McKinney and Drury to open 2 40-man roster spots for the Yankees.

These guys aren't the centre-pieces.

The Yankees had no need (want?) For either of these players with the emergence of Andujar. Drury's offence is that of a 2B but his defense is better at third where his offence is below average... and McKinney is just one more needless roadblock for Pompey or Davis.

Surely, the Jays have to make another trade now. Drury, Solarte, Travis, Gurriel, Tulo, Travis, and Diaz are needed for three positions.

I don't know why the focus on Drury. McKinney is the get here. He is a legit prospect on a down year. He has upside. Happ has none (for the Jays). That is a good deal.

Drury is what they need if Solarte gets flipped, or Travis gets hurt and Gurriel continues to underwhelm. Otherwise he is a chip. In the offseason he could easily be flipped for a useful bullpen piece.

Did anyone actually think they would get Frazier for less than a half year of Happ?

Assuming the deal is as reported, it just confirms what a poor decision the front office (I'm not sure how to allocate blame between Rogers and management) made this past offseason to not sell.

The team decided in the offseason that they weren't interested in trying to compete. It was hard to argue with that decision. What was the point in not selling Happ and JD then? When you aren't trying to compete, I've never understood the rationale that you can always deal the player at the deadline. Its one thing to hold onto someone like Smoak who likely had little value in the offseason. Gambling that another year like last year might have made him a valuable trade chip, makes sense - there would be very little risk and some possible reward. I get that. What were Happ and JD going to do this year other than possibly losing value (as they have). All risk and little to no possible reward.

Dunno. McKinney's 2017 to me, looks like the outlier. 2016 looks pretty "down" as well.

I am more than willing to run with Solarte/Travis/Gurriel/Diaz plus whatever you get from Tulo up until the kids are ready. Drury just seems like a really weird target.

"All risk and little to no possible reward." -- Nigel the possible reward was being in it for the 2nd WC and that has real value in Toronto given how elastic the demand is for Jays tickets.

"Assuming the deal is as reported, it just confirms what a poor decision the front office (I'm not sure how to allocate blame between Rogers and management) made this past offseason to not sell."

Now THAT I agree with.

Given that he (Frazier) was viewed as a 50fv according to Fangraphs, and that was what good rental starters have gotten in the near history, I certainly thought it was viable. Likely, maybe not. Viable if there were a few teams in on the bidding? Yeah.

And Drury's not a prospect. He has over a thousand mediocre MLB at bats (in ARI). If the issue was having filler while dealing Solarte or others, they already had that on the 40 (Urena), or off of it (Urshala).


McKinney is an OK second piece (in a volume over quality return). He's 25 and OKish across the board. He was the yankees ~20th best prospect (I know it's a deep system, but still).

Either way, there's a wide wide chasm between Frazier and Drury/McKinney. There's Domingo German or Acevedo, Albert Abreu, Chance Adams, aww, crap, so many more guys. Basically, if McKinney's the lead, I'd have rather had the draft pick.

Wilner is projecting McKinney as Teoscar/Grichuk with the bat.

I don’t believe that the front office thought they were legitimate WC contenders. If they did they would have put more resources into improving the roster. I don’t criticize them for not doing that. They just made the rebuild harder and longer. Financially short sighted. One of the downsides from being owned by a public company.

Wilner is projecting McKinney as Teoscar/Grichuk with the bat. Seems light for Wilner. Figured he'd be comparing him to the guy drafted right after Grichuk.

There were a number of thumbs up from scouts and others for Drury when he was traded to the Yankees earlier in the year, and he didn’t play long before some health issues side tracked him. Let’s give him some time...

McKinney is interesting. The problem with the Yankees is that they have crazy depth. There is no room for him. The Yankees traded from strength.

Also, the Yankees are making the playoffs with or without Happ. Also, they are not beating the Red Sox\Houston because they have Happ. It gives them some depth. So we get depth picks back. McKinney and Drury is a nice haul in my opinion.

The deal seems fine for under half a season of Happ -- I never expected much and this is better than him finishing out the season as a Jay. I would rather have had them take a flyer on a couple of young arms that could turn into something, but that's just me, perhaps that sort of deal wasn't out there. McKinney could be good and depends on whether he develops -- out of the fringe OF prospects, another body isn't a bad thing, especially if it shunts Hernandez to DH with Morales going somewhere for something if he finishes out the season hot.

Mckinney reached AA 2015 and has really stalled in the upper minors. I'd really like to know what the Brewers were offering. don't think JD gets a QO if he isn't moved.Jays have added 3 players that require 40 man spots this winter, hope they intend to package some talent -happy the jays have added 3 LHH to system but surprised no pitchers.

With Wall being the other player in the Oh deal, I think the Jays did reasonably well there.

The Happ deal, on the other hand, looks like a dud to me. Drury's hitting numbers in 2017 and 2016 are grossly distorted by the excellent hitters' park he played in. Have a look at his road numbers to get a truer picture of who he is. His road OPS in both 2016 and 2017 was right around the .640 mark. In his 2 part seasons in 2015 and 2018, he hasn't even managed that. He's not a plus defender, doesn't run well, and is going to be arb eligible, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get more than he deserves in arbitration due to the distorted 2016 and 2017 numbers. To me, he has negative value. McKinney hit well in the low minors for 3 years, but when you look at 2016-2018, the only time he hit well was in 209 AB's in AAA last year, which, as mentioned already, looks like the outlier. He's still just 23, and has some upside, but I think he's a longshot.

Offseason, JD and Happ likely would have garnered at least 3 B prospects (2 for JD and 1 for Happ) and a lottery ticket or two. Imagine the leg up the rebuild would have had.

I agree that JD will not get a QO if not moved.

These last three trades that brought in Espinal, Spangberger, Wall, Mckiney and Drury for me set up a big test for the front office. When you trade three major league players you expect to get three major leaguers back.

If fewer than three of these players turn into major league regulars then the front office will have failed. They have traded for prospects with question marks. That they accepted them means they think they have the answers. Time will tell.

Given the proximity of several of these players to the major leagues, we should have an answer this time next year.

I would think Solarte has to get moved now. There is no reason to have him with Drury in the mix. They play the same role on the team (utility IF who can cover 2B/3B). Solarte's options in 2019 and 2020 look a lot more expensive now that he's performing at replacement level rather than a 1-2 WAR. Drury is younger with more years of control left.

Agreed that trying for a WC spot in 2018, while sensible from an ownership standpoint, cost the team some significant value long-term.

"Assuming the deal is as reported, it just confirms what a poor decision the front office (I'm not sure how to allocate blame between Rogers and management) made this past offseason to not sell. "

Confirming that something was a poor decision a year removed from that decision is using hind sight. Why don't you ever look back to confirm what a great decision something was...like not signing Bautista, EE, JD. Like signing Smoak...etc.

If you called the move bad at the time then bring it up now and say the deal confirms what you had said. After the fact if you didn't have that opinion at the original time - what's the use in looking back to see what is now plainly obvious for everyone? I really don't mean for this to sound rude, but yes...right now, sitting out of the playoff race and facing all the injuries that we have...it looks and can be confirmed that it was a bad decision not to sell, but that shouldn't affect the decision that was taken at the time.

I am also surprised that the jays received no pitching in these deals.

I am surprised they received a major league ready infielder when we have a glut.

I am surprised they took players who need to be protected on the 40 man roster. Do the Jays not have a logjam coming for their 40 man roster?

Dalimon5, if you look back at my posts for the past two years I have been consistently saying that the front office had to either invest in the team or sell. Doing nothing, as they have the past two years was the only option that made no sense. In no way am I Monday Morning Quarterbacking.

I think everybody not in a major league office is overvaluing major league talent that is under performing or injured or on the wrong side of 30. You want to get back quality major leaguers or prospects then start throwing around names like Osuna, Sanchez, Stroman this past off season. No, we were all throwing around names like Tulo, Martin, Donaldson coming off an injury season with huge contract extension demands.

Do we remember the off season where rumors were swirling that Donaldson and Machado were being shopped aggressively only for BAL and TOR to decide to hold onto their chips since the returns weren't strong?

Machado had to go on a huge tear on a bad team to get BAL a nice return. IF Donaldson was healthy and performing as a top 5 player like Machado then he would have received a huge return like Machado...doesn't matter that we held onto him for a year.

Well, I'm certainly not MMQ - last year I argued strongly for a July selloff including Stroma/JD/Happ - in fact anybody who was unlikely to part of the next window.

Nigel,

I have no reason not to believe you (I don't go back to check posts in the past). If you've been calling this since day one then power to you and good on you for being consistent, which this board lacks.

McKinney has not been traded for rentals three times.... the previous times he was a secondary piece to Addison Russel for Jeff Smardiza and a secondary piece to Glyber Torres for Chapman. The drop-off from Drury to Russel/Torres is a lot greater than from Happ to Smardiza or Chapman. Not to mention every time McKinney was traded his stock dropped afterwards.

Maybe the Jays are acquiring these type of near mlb talent because of the expected drop in budget - only dumpster diving this winter,move Solarte, no QO for JD etc.

I can't believe the Jays would actually think Drury could replace Solarte. Drury isn't nearly the hitter Solarte is. Career road OPS for Solarte is .733, for Drury is .655.

dalimon5 - calling exactly this scenario from day one wouldn't be quite right, there are ways in which this could have worked out better for the front office (JD getting hurt was unlucky). However, I think its been obvious for some time that Rogers decided to milk the economic benefits of the two playoff runs for all they were worth at the cost of making smarter baseball decisions. I take no exception to that. Rogers owns the team and has every right to do so. I just think its all been incredibly short sighted. They had a number of aging above average players that should have been moved and that could have had this team ready for serious contention as soon as possibly next year. I think the rebuild has been delayed considerably through inactivity and Rogers will now pay for that in the next couple of years. I have zero idea what management's role, if any, in all of this was.

Career XWOBA:

Brandon Drury - 0.317
Devon Travis - 0.324
Solarte - 0.311
Diaz - 0.308

MLB Average - 0.317

Drury is a career MLB average hitter in pretty much every way imaginable, but not really any better than what we have.

now onto more important things - Stroman & Osuna - Padres said to be interested in Archer and willing to include top prospects (except Tatis) - Stroman should interest them - they may have the best system in baseball.

Drury has just said that he talked on phone with Atkins and told he would be in line up tomorrow night in Chicago.

Too many players? What next?

will be interesting to see what the Rangers get for Hamels who is more expensive and has a 6M buyout

Maybe Solarte is somewhere else by tomorrow

#BlueJays claim LHP Oliver Drake on waivers from Angels per team

Atkins says Jays will now focus on controllable pitching.

Probably there wasn’t a better deal out there. I also think the Jays might have done better had Happ dominated over the last few weeks instead of regressing. His perceived value at a critical time likely dropped as a result.

Also, teams seem very reluctant these days to part with their better prospects, unless the player being traded for is highly desirable (like Machado). Perhaps there is a revaluation taking place regarding non-elite trade deadline players, similar to the revaluation that we have seen recently in relation to free agents in their 30s.

I don’t love dealing Happ to New York, as I do not want to see the Yankees advance in the playoffs while the Jays sit on the sidelines. Call me old-fashioned, but I think trades to a divisional rival in a playoff race should sting a bit for the other team, and this one likely doesn’t sting at all for Cashman and the Yankees.

So Drury has migraines / blurred vision problems? Here I was expecting a more predictable injury like a pulled muscle or something when people said he was injured this year.. That's kind of scary, actually, thinking back to Ken Dayley, for example.

I mean, if this was the Leafs, and they also got a really good prospect, and planned to move Drury to Robidas Island, that would make sense. Taking a guy with a history of head problems, who was never good to begin with, as the MAIN return? It seems like we let the Yankees dump salary without actually giving us back anything good? AND they got Happ??

Color me unimpressed - it feels like we basically gave Happ away (Drury + McKinney seem to balance out to 0 WAR). AND we have to pay Drury a $5M+ MLB salary? I think I would have rather had McKinney + a flyer on an A-ball pitcher or something.. Honestly, it feels like we got more for Oh.

The vision problems etc. that Drury experienced have apparently been cleared up.

I just heard Atkins call Drury "exciting" on the TSN radio station. Yikes.

Dan, I wouldn’t worry too much about that quote. This management team has elite spin rate on their fastballs. I don’t think Atkins believes that at all.

I share the consensus that I'm more a fan of the Oh trade with the inclusion of Wall instead of the initial report of Spangenberg and Bouchard.

I think the shine came off McKinney a couple of years ago. Drury could be a useful replacement if Solarte is dealt, but I would have preferred him as the second piece to a more legit prospect. The return is underwhelming.

Sounds like the kinda of things that comes and goes.
A huge red flag is that Drury waited a long time to let the Yankees know he had any issues at all.
That's the type of character flaws that teams often overlook, the guy who plays hurt and drag the team down.
There's money involved here, so I'm guessing he wouldn't talk about any issues until next year so he can collect another year of salary on the DL.

The Yankees started the year poorly and only took off once he was off the lineup.

Complaints always come not matter what happens. Happ was not getting a qualifying offer - he would accept it. He will be an old Free Agent, who was just starting to show his age this year. According to Ross Atkins, the Yankee offer was the best offer so he decides on New York. Read the Yankees fans response to the trade before complaining too much.

The Yankees fans like to troll.
It's more interesting to see what fans of other teams have to say.

Happ accepting a QO would have been a negative only in a budget sense.
They Jays are shedding a lot salary this year and probably not signing any expensive prospects over the winter, so who cares?

I think the value of the return is probably ok it's just the wrong return for this team. The Oh trade was pretty good but this one was backwards. Why are the Jays going for replacement level major leaguers?

@Nigel. You're right. The Jays should have rebuilt after 2016 even but it was not possible coming off a playoff appearance. The issue is you have a fan base who have been pushing the Jays to try to win who have been criticizing this front office for not going all in. Then, when it is clear they are in a bad position, they should have been rebuilding all along? Many of us saw this decline coming even in 2015 but when should the Jays have gone in rebuilding? After 2015 and that amazing run? After 2016 playoff season? This off season? This off season was already too late to get top value from Donaldson. I'm not saying you're not right just that it was politically impossible to rebuild when they should have.

A lot of the value for the team is in payroll savings. That could be on Rogers.
If they can get a few A level pitchers for Solarte and Granderson, I'll feel a lot better.

Apparently Luke Maile is the 3rd best backup catcher in baseball.
https://baseballinfosolutions.wordpress.com/2018/07/27/who-is-baseballs-best-backup-catcher/

Keegan Matheson on twitter reports that SRF has been scratched from his start tonight and is on his way to Toronto.

Ack.  SRF is joining the club in Chicago. 

You sure Mike? Keegan posted that he is a candidate to be scratched, but it hasn't been decided yet. We still don't know who's going to be starting on the weekend.

You are absolutely right. SRF is a  "Candidate" to be scratched. 

Until the “blister”, Estrada was going to pitch in Chicago, or maybe he gets traded. Now neither thing happens. Sean Reid-Foley is the next offering to the MLB.

When a Pitcher reaches the “call-up” stage of his career, his stuff is good enough, his control and consistency are good enough. He generally needs to believe he’s good enough. Rarely does a Pitcher survive a lack of confidence at this level, but sometimes there is no choice.

I am pretty excited to see SRF up in the big leagues. His stuff will probably be second only to Sanchez on the nasty scale.