So it Patrick Murphy the 2018 version of 2017 Ryan Bourcki, as in the oft-injured player who finally puts it together at age 23. He has been utterly dominant in his last 10 starts.

Also I'm becoming more and more intrigued by Harold Ramirez, but I probably shouldn't be.

The lack of a third pitch seems like a consistent talking point for Patrick Murphy. I tried to look around the majors to see who gets by with a strong curve and fastball combination, and there aren't many who survive without a change-up or at least a slider. Hopefully this hot steak is a result of a third pitch coming along.

You can do it with essentially a two pitch mix if you have excellent command of a four-seam fastball, and in particular if you can hit the corner up and in with regularity.  It's old-school but it works. 

Caught my eye that Guerrero Jr was replaced by another Guerrero 3rd baseman sporting an even higher batting average. Seem to grow on trees.

Josh Norris from BA watched Murphy last night. He described a mid 90's fastball, touching 98, a power curve that got strikeouts and a firm change-up. I am not sure what a firm change-up means but thats what he wrote.

The Florida manager, Luis Salazar, said Murphy has major league stuff, and Murphy could be the best pitcher he has seen all year.

Lance McCullers in Houston gets by with basically two pitches, a 4 seam FB and a hard curve (emphasis on hard). As Mike says, it can work if the FB control is good.

I saw Murphy start a game in Vancouver a couple of years ago and he definitely wasn't throwing that hard that night. He's a good reminder that recovery from arm injuries for pitchers aren't always predictable or linear.

Jimenez in the GCL is really having an interesting start to his professional career. A 17 year old SS who's walked more than he's struck out and showing some extra base pop - its an excellent combination.

Zach Logue has had a nice year - is he one of those crafty lefty types? Maybe a future BP/6th starter upside.

Touch wood but this is probably the most positive year I can remember for prospects in a long time.

Typically you'd say 1/3 prospects progress, 1/3 remain the same and 1/3 regress. This year I'd say more than have of the legitimate prospects are progressing. Probably closer to 75%

It has been a great year for prospects, but I don't think we are really seeing an exception to the one third improve / one third regress model.  It's just that the higher ranked / louder tool prospects are seeing more improvement

Just going by MLP Pipeline:
Improved:  Vlad, Jansen, Pardhino, Borucki, SRF, Hiraldo, Noda, Smith, Biggio, Danner, Harris (11)
Stayed the same:  Bichette, Zeuch, Taylor, McGuire, Jiminez, Vicuna, Castillo, Romano, Davis (9)
Regressed:  Alford, Pearson, Warmoth, Urena, Tellez, Adams, Contreras, Maese, Pannone, Pentacost (10)
Still a strong year, especially given that the top two guys to see a decrease in prospect status have dealt with serious injuries, but guys like Warmoth, Urena and Adams have dropped significantly - although they were all lower ceiling guys - and guys like Tellex, and Pentacost are likely non-prospects at this point.
I hate saying that about Tellez, given the adversity he has faced.  His mother was battling cancer and he has just come off a bereavement leave.  I can only assume the worst, and hope the young man finds some solace playing the game he loves. 

Rowdy had a 73 wRC+ last year in Buffalo, 103 so far this year. Not sure that's regression.

I agree with hypobole about Tellez.  Similarly, Urena is playing at a similar level in Buffalo this year as he did in New Hampshire last year.  He is a year older, but still only 22 and he has started to pick up.  If he has fallen, it is only by a small amount. 

hard to pin Pearson with a regressed for 1.2 innings of work.
Although admittedly some kind of Charlie Brown danger-to-self factor in giving up 5 hits, one home run, one broken arm so fast out of the gate;
I'll take the over on him un-regressing before the year is out.

I'm surprised Gurriel Jr. isn't on Pipeline's list, and he's noticeably improved as a prospect (and will soon graduate, if he hasn't already).

The 1/3 rule is a little tricky - are you using a pre-season list (where Biggio might not even rank) or the current list, which has a bias for risers.

Using the Box's pre-season list (of 28, since we traded Greene & Olivares) it still looks balanced, but slightly more weighted towards the positive end:

Improved: Murphy, Perdomo, Harris, Pardinho, K. Smith, Danner, Gurriel Jr., SRF, Borucki, Jansen, Vladito (11)
Same: Palacios, Romano, Vicuna, Gudino, Pannone, McGuire, Tellez, Zeuch, Bichette (9)
Declined: Z. Jackson, Maese, Pentecost, Adams, Warmoth, Urena, Pearson, Alford (8)

I've put Tellez in the middle category, and I think Pannone belongs there too right now.

What this misses is the players who have launched themselves into the top 30 - like Biggio, Noda and Chavez Young.

I think that you have to put Bichette and Zeuch in a different category.  Either the double A jump means something important in which case Zeuch is a riser and Bichette is flat, or the double A jump is no big deal in which case Zeuch is flat and Bichette is a faller. 

One player who looks like he regressed, but maybe hasn't is Riley Adams. From the little I've read, his catching skills have improved. He skipped over Lansing. And this:

BB% - K% - ISO

2017 - 7.9 % - 22.0 % -.133
2018 - 11.1 % - 23.6 % -.129

He's hit more line drives and cut down his ground balls from last year.

He's been killed by BABIP, and IFFB's.

Good point, hypobole.  Adams has just turned 22, and has been better in July.  The evening out of the W/K is a big thing. 

Good point Mike. The middle category has to have some flexibility in it, or it would contain very few. Bichette's components have been mostly flat, with his babip taking the biggest hit in AA; Zeuch has seen a reduced strikeout rate, which is more important to me, even though it's fair to say he's succeeded in AA.

If I had to choose, I'd say Zeuch has improved modestly, and Bichette has declined modestly, but they are both close enough to even in my books to put them in that middle category.

I'd put both Zeuch and Bichette in the Same group. They're both having solid years given what they were coming into the year - Zeuch has healthened up, and Bichette apparently looks better at SS and doesn't sound like he'll need to move (from what I recall of chats). Looking at the numbers, Zeuch still looks like a workhorse 3/4 starter, and Bichette still looks like a frontline SS with a lot of extra-base hits and control of the strikezone.

Excellent point about Adams, Hypobole. I see that Adams' swinging-strike rate is down from 11.2% last year to 9.9% this year, so the modest increase in his K% is likely due to going deeper into counts this year.

This is perhaps another lesson in how strongly babip influences perceptions.

Agreed on Adams. I liked him as much, if not more, than Warmoth last year in Vancouver. He's a much different prospect of course, with a far higher bust factor. I think k% and isolated power are the key things for him going forward offensively. The reduction of the swinging strike % is a pretty big deal as he has some patience. Its still an open question if he can turn his size into power production. He was actually pretty decent defensively last year, so if he's improved that part of his game as well that would be important. He's very athletic for a big catcher (he's not Jayson Werth athletic, but its also not a crazy comparison) so there is a really interesting package there.

The 1/3 rule is a little tricky - are you using a pre-season list (where Biggio might not even rank) or the current list, which has a bias for risers.

Good point Gabriel, I just used the current list, but Biggio is the only guy who I can spot who wouldn't have been on or close to the pre-season list.  Pipeline has been one of the higher rankings for Noda, I think he was listed preseason too

Tellez is much better than last year, but his ranking was based on last year being an outlier.  Despite his improvements and personal circumstances, I still see his prospect value declining to the point where he doesn't warrant a 40 man roster spot unless he breaks out in the second half. 

Pannone most likely has only himself to blame for his absence - missing half a season of development has to hurt in my books, although he does have the rest of the year to re-establish himself.   Same with Pearson - he's lost more time to injury than he had to establish himself in the first place.  It's a cruel game, prospect rankings. 

Outside the top 30 there are several breakouts, including Perdomo, Chavez Young and Patrick Murphy as discussed, but also Yennsy Diaz, Brock Lundquist, Travis Bergen and Otto Lopez.  Conor Fisk too, if you are willing to call a 26 year old reliever a prospect. 

I can easily see the case for my having been too hard on Adams and Zeuch.  With Bichette, his age for AA is more impressive than his slash line (if only by his own elite standards).  Hard to improve on elite, unless, like Mike suggests, simply handling the aggressive promotions successfully counts as improving. 

Overall, this is still an enourmously  successful year for the farm.  I forget who noted this recently, but most of our minor league affiliates are in playoff contention.  The affiliates are a combined 45 games over .500.  Not sure how to quickly compare the average age of the rosters with their leagues, but perhaps given the conservative approach to promotion demonstrated with all but the highest pedigree prospects, some of the impressive performances are slightly inflated by being older for the league?

Bbref minor leagues shows hitters/pitchers average ages.

Tellez is much better than last year, but his ranking was based on last year being an outlier. Despite his improvements and personal circumstances, I still see his prospect value declining to the point where he doesn't warrant a 40 man roster spot unless he breaks out in the second half.

Sure, I could see an argument for his prospect value declining, but as a player he's improved. The problem with using prospect value for this kind of thing is that you get such oddities and, to a certain extent, many prospects are relying on the possibility of a break out for their value; and it seems odd to describe a player who is advancing normally through the system and maintaining their production as "declining".

I get your point Gabriel, and see the flaws with improved / same / decline for the reasons you give.  I do think that Tellez is NOT advancing normally - he has utterly stalled out at AAA.  But if you are talking strictly about his performance, yes, he's improved his OPS by close to .100 points.
Baseball reference (thanks Hypobole) lists the average age by position players and pitchers.  I've got average ages per level from a 2012 Fangraphs article- old date, but likely still close.  If you just split the ages for hitters and pitchers down the middle (for simplicity's sake):
Buffalo average age 26.1 years old vs. 28.2 for AAA players generallyNH 24.2 vs. 23.8DUN 23.1 vs. 22.4LAN 21.8 vs. 21.2VAN 21.4 vs. 20.9BLU 20.6 vs. 19.4GCL  19.9 vs. 19.4DSL 17.9  vs.  19.4
The Fangraphs article has only one average age for rookie ball, so if you prefer to average our three rookie level teams out to get a clearer picture, it's roughly 19.4 - so exactly average. 

This fits with what several posters have been saying about a slower than normal rate of promotions - the players come into the org at typical ages, but tend to be a a half year or so older than other players while in A and AA.  With the growth in prospect depth, and our non-competitive major league team, it makes sense that Buffalo is younger than typical - fringey prospects are more likely playing the org soldier role - Roemon Fields and J-Leb types - rather than minor league FAs.  The long-term contenders have older guys that can be plugged into a competitive big league roster - BOS average AAA age is 27.6, CHIC 26.6, CLE 27.5, LAD 27.7.  Contenders with stacked minor leagues post younger AAA rosters - NYY - 25.7, ATL 26.3, HOU 25.7, PHIL 26.9.  Than again, a crap minor league system like KC has a youthful AAA roster at 26 years even, so perhaps this quick look doesn't mean much. 

One thing I noticed in looking at players ages is that the average GCL pitcher is 2 years older that the average DSL pitcher. So even though Leonardo Jimenez' slash line doesn't look as good as Hiraldo's, he's an still above average GCL batter. That's really good.

It will be interesting to see what scouts have to say about some of our young players. Jimenez, Hiraldo and Pardinho have pedigree, but players like Otto Lopez, Gabriel Moreno and Alejandro Kirk have appeared largely out of nowhere.

In the 10 games since Sean Reid-Filey gave up 8 runs in 2.1 IP he has a 2.83 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 and a 1.04 WHIP....which is utter dominance. The rotation depth for next season looks great.

Agreed shoeless. Very promising rotation.

"The rotation depth for next season looks great."

Reminds me of Baghdad Bob's "Iraq is winning the war"

The long-term contenders have older guys that can be plugged into a competitive big league roster - BOS average AAA age is 27.6, CHIC 26.6, CLE 27.5, LAD 27.7.  Contenders with stacked minor leagues post younger AAA rosters - NYY - 25.7, ATL 26.3, HOU 25.7, PHIL 26.9.  Than again, a crap minor league system like KC has a youthful AAA roster at 26 years even, so perhaps this quick look doesn't mean much.  jerjapan Tuesday, July 17 2018 @ 07:01 PM EDT
Although a poster here told me to attend more to Jays players than those in independent leagues, comparing the ages in those leagues with numbers of players in there signed by MLB organizations to compete on a Triple-A level reflects the case forwarded by jerjapan. MLB affiliated teams sign players from the league with more matured players who can be plugged into competitive play. Atlantic League 29.2, American Association 26.5, Can-Am 26.5, Frontier League 24.2 are the average ages of players in those four independent league in operation this 2018 season. Brandon Cumpton and Zach Stewart who appear above in this MLU were playing in the Atlantic League before joining the Herd. In this 2018 season, some MLBers in that league who were sought after in previous seasons in MLB include IF Reid Brignac, CL K-Rod, P Jair Jurrjens and C Derek Norris. Some players who were mentioned at one time or another as a Jays are IF Alexi Casilla, C Wilkin Castillo, OF/P Adam Loewen and OF Melky Mesa. Former long time players and prospects Jays Gustavo Pierre and Travis Snider. The following names are definitely mentioned innumerable times on this site: IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio, C Josh Thole and OF Darrell Ceciliani.
By juxtaposing the case jerjapan mentioned with the roster transactions in which MLB organizations are willing to sign older guys from independent league this season to plugged them into a competitive role in Triple-A, the older average ages of Triple-A players that BoSox and the other MLB teams as long-term contenders have are a reflection of the same management of keeping older guys around for them to be plugged in.
So to jerjapan, that quick look does mean something.

Logue had his 2nd consecutive scoreless start today - well, actually Osuna pitched an inning before Logue's 7 innings of 2 hitter. Now has 12 K's vs 0 walks in his last 13 IP. Just turned 22 in April. Maybe his ceiling is better than a 6th starter. Espinal seems to be coming around nicely after a bit of a struggle right after the trade - 2 more hits today.

"Sure, I could see an argument for his prospect value declining, but as a player he's improved. The problem with using prospect value for this kind of thing is that you get such oddities and, to a certain extent, many prospects are relying on the possibility of a break out for their value; and it seems odd to describe a player who is advancing normally through the system and maintaining their production as "declining"."


It's a difference between "declining in production" and "declining in value". Tellez was terrible last year but you could have given him a mulligan due to personal issues. The fact that after another half season, he still doesn't look like a prospect means his stock has gone down even if he improved. For someone like Urena who is progressing normally through the system, his prospect status was always based around him figuring out how to hit. In 2016, he looked like he had that potential. Great year at high A, some struggles while very young at AA but at some point, you just have to be able to hit. We are now over 850 PAs for Urena above AA and he has been very bad. He's still young enough to be a prospect but especially as his defense isn't great, his prospect status keeps slipping. A year ago, I thought he looked like a utility player, now he doesn't look like a major leaguer unless he figures some stuff out. Looking at age vs. level is important but so is the ability to progress through levels and adapt to them over time.

Interesting thing about Telle is that he's been brutal at home in Buffalo. Like. 200 avg 550ops terrible.This year he's had reverse splits, which is not great, but if you can get over the sample size it's addressing the most obvious weakness from last year. Even using his away numbers it's not good enough, but it was of note. 
If he figures out how to hit, I expect he'll only get a shot after 28 unless there's a drastic and visoble improvement  at some point. I seem to remember checking home batting records for Bisons and it was pretty bad in general.