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Game Threads Blue Jays @ Astros - June 25-27
The #BlueJays go up against the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros.



Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Monday at 8:10 pm ET - J.A. Happ (9-3, 3.56) vs. Justin Verlander (9-2, 1.60)
Tuesday at 8:10 pm ET - Ryan Borucki (MLB debut) vs. Charlie Morton (9-1, 2.74)
Wednesday at 2:10 pm ET - Marco Estrada (4-7, 4.48) vs. Dallas Keuchel (4-8, 3.90)

The Astros recently reeled off an 11-game winning streak and have taken four of six on this homestand after winning two of three from Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Houston enjoys a 4-1/2 game lead over Seattle in the AL West on a 52-27 record.

The Blue Jays salvaged a split in Anaheim by taking the last two games against the Angels. Their 36-41 record leaves them in fourth place in the AL East, 15 games behind the juggernauts.

On Deck - The Jays have a day off Thursday before returning home to face Detroit.
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Monday, June 25 2018 @ 06:02 PM EDT.
Blue Jays @ Astros - June 25-27 | 174 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#360612) #
I have a bad feeling about this series.
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lexomatic - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#360613) #
O/U 12 k tonight?
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Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#360618) #
There is a great article over at blue jays nation providing some interesting points via another Joel Sherman article on why a Happ/Yankees trade makes a lot of sense. A couple of prospects like Justus Sheffield, Albert Abreu, Chance Adams, Dillon Tate, or Domingo Acevedo from the Yankees can really rebuild our pitching depth moving forward.

https://bluejaysnation.com/2018/06/25/joel-sherman-lists-more-reasons-why-j-a-happ-to-the-yankees-makes-sense/
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hypobole - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#360619) #
Jays know the way to deal with a great pitcher like Verlander is to have at least 4 DH's in the lineup.
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greenfrog - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#360620) #
Horrible home plate umpiring on that 2-2 pitch by Happ to Bregman.
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greenfrog - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#360622) #
Pretty good line for Happ in the end: 6 7 3 3 2 4
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hypobole - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#360623) #
Pretty good DH we have playing RF today

#GrandyHighPerformance
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92-93 - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#360624) #
A HR on an 0-2 pitch to tie the game followed by an opposite-field HR on a 1-2 pitch to take the lead, both against Justin Verlander. Have a night, Curtis.
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scottt - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#360625) #
A W against the Astros, just to showcase Happ even more. I like it.


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bpoz - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#360626) #
Nervous when the pen came in. Worried for nothing.
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hypobole - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#360627) #
And Grichuk is good at baseball.
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uglyone - Monday, June 25 2018 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#360628) #
this team hanging out near .500 halfway thru the season, while missing their best hitter, best pitcher, and best reliever for most of it, is actually kinda impressive.
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#360629) #
Makes you wonder where this team would have been if Donaldson (in particular), Osuna, and Stroman were healthy all year. Probably still behind Seattle but would have been closer.
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John Northey - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#360631) #
Yeah, RF looked like a big worry in April but Grichuk really has figured it out hasn't he?  Glad he is here for a few years now, back in April not so much.  Now up to a 93 OPS+.  Pre-injury he was at 106/208/277, but since 279/338/662.  Whatever he did during that injury break the Jays should do to everyone :)
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#360632) #
So Grandy is the only player in MLB who can say he homered twice in the same game off Verlander:

"Curtis Granderson: Sixth player ever to homer multiple times off Justin Verlander in same game. Previous was BAL J.J. Hardy on Jun 1 2013.

Others (here's a list): Desmond Jennings, Shelley Duncan, Carlos Quentin, Nick Swisher."
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bpoz - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#360633) #
Last year at this time in the season our record was 36-39. This year 37-41. So basically the same.
However I am handling it better this year.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#360635) #
In the Athletic today, Jake Kaplan has an article on Teoscar Hernandez including an interview with Jeff Luhnow.  Luhnow is not only a very bright man, but a class act. 
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#360637) #
Mike, for those of us with an Athletic subscription, are there a couple of bullet points of interest you can share?
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Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#360638) #
It's mostly stuff you could guess, hypobole.  Luhnow essentially indicated that Hernandez had made some progress with his plate discipline in their minor league system but that he has exceeded the club's expectations for him. The trade made sense for Houston given the Astros' logjam in the outfield and their needs at the time.  Luhnow described Hernandez as "one of the nicest guys we've ever had in our minor league system" and of course, that they would love to have him back...
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Magpie - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#360639) #
Before the game the Astros gave Hernandez and Clippard their World Series rings. IN the Athletic piece, Luhnow gives the trade rationale - he didn't know if TH would get a shot in Houston (who  have outfielders oozing from every pore) and a LH pitcher sure seemed handy at the time. At the end he says:

He’s one of the nicest guys we have ever had in our minor-league system. Everybody loved him. He was a fan favorite, a player favorite, a front office favorite, and of course I’d love to have him back in our organization. But those are the decisions that once you make them, you can’t take them back.

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Magpie - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#360640) #
Beat me to it!
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#360641) #
Thank you.
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bpoz - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#360642) #
The Houston owner really wants to win and he does something about it. The G Cole trade convinced me of that because he improved on the good and experienced SPs they already had.


It will be interesting how they extend their window of contending. I think it will be a whole organization commitment.
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#360646) #
MLBTR on Estrada's trade value

Money quote:

"Estrada has been one of the better starters in baseball over the past month, accumulating an even 1.0 fWAR over the past thirty days — something only ten other hurlers in the game have accomplished. In his last four outings, in particular, he has worked to a 1.75 ERA with 26 strikeouts against five walks."

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/trade-candidate-marco-estrada.html
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Glevin - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#360647) #
"MLBTR on Estrada's trade value"

The problem with someone like Estrada is that it's hard to see any team wanting him as a playoff starter. It's too hard to trust a pitcher who has been this uneven over the last 2 years. I could see him having value to a team wanting a starter to help them make the playoffs (Seattle?) but there won't be a huge market. Happ is a top pitcher and teams will bid on him.
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#360649) #
Estrada's playoff performance historically is excellent, but it does appear that he would have more value to a team that needs a starter to fill a rotation spot, while Happ will be acquired to be in a team's playoff rotation. If Estrada continues to pitch like this then the Jays should be able to get something for him either way.
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#360650) #
No one thinks Estrada is better or will fetch as much as Happ. But a month ago, Estrada was in the same bucket as Garcia, i.e. worthless in trade. Depending on how Estrada pitches in the next month, he may actually fetch something.

And there are other playoff contenders with dreck at the back end of their rotations.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#360652) #
It's quite possible that in a month, Estrada will be seen as better than every Yankee starter other than Severino.  He's about the 50th best starter in baseball as of now, and could be the 3rd or 4th starter on many contending clubs.  And he has an excellent record in the post-season (2.64 ERA, 4 walks and 43 strikeouts in 47 innings). 

It should be noted though that the Mariners have started to fall back to earth and that the Blue Jays current playoff odds are 4.6% per Fangraphs.  If the odds go up over the next couple of weeks, I can imagine them not selling. 
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85bluejay - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#360653) #
As I've mentioned before if the Jays lower Seattle's lead to single digits while catching/passing other teams by the all star break, the FO may decide not to sell especially if Donaldson comes back healthy/productive - wouldn't be my preference but I can see that scenario definitely happening.
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#360654) #
It should be noted though that the Mariners have started to fall back to earth

However, it should also be noted the main reason they have fallen back was the 10 game stretch of Red Sox-Yankees-Red Sox they just completed.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#360655) #
The Mariners are also still beating their Pythagorean by 7 games.  By Base Runs, they are 5 and a half games ahead of the Blue Jays instead of 10 and a half. 
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Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#360656) #
And if you are talking about strength of schedule, the Jays have already played half their games against the Red Sox and Yankees, whereas the Mariners have played only 6 against the Astros and Angels.  It does seem a little early for that. How about we see what happens in the next two weeks?
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uglyone - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#360657) #
I could see Estrada having real trade value if he stays hot, given his playoff history, even from a team who wouldn't bet on him long term. he's always lived on a razors edge with little margin for error, but when he's on (and healthy), it works.

officially not toast.

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Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#360658) #
officially not toast

it's the love that makes Marco keep coming back. 
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#360659) #
Yeah, the next two weeks or so up to the All-star break is a bit tough for us. We do get 4 Tigers, 2 Mets (Matz, Wheeler), before a stretch of 3 Yankees, 2 Braves, 4 BoSox. The rest of July is easier with 3 O's, 3 Twins, 3 White Sox and then Oakland when the deadline hits.
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BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#360662) #
It should be noted though that the Mariners have started to fall back to earth and that the Blue Jays current playoff odds are 4.6% per Fangraphs.  If the odds go up over the next couple of weeks, I can imagine them not selling. 

Jeez I hope not. The Jays are not making the playoffs this year. If by some miracle they beat looooong odds and actually do it, they'll be the road team in the play in game. This is not worth passing up the chance to help the 2020 and beyond Jays. They'd better be selling the rentals for sure.


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bpoz - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#360663) #
For playoffs you don't need 5 starters. 4 at most. I can see Happ being in the group of 4 and Estrada probably not but valuable on the playoff pitching staff. I don't know how he would be used but maybe keep the team in the game to get to the closer if need be.
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CeeBee - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#360664) #
"This is not worth passing up the chance to help the 2020 and beyond Jays. They'd better be selling the rentals for sure."

That's my worry as well. Time to lose a few and dash those false hopes.
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DH - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#360665) #
After those two HR's off of Verlander, hard not to imagine that Granderson's value as a 4th OF/PH took a nice bump for teams thinking about facing the Astros in the playoffs.
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BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#360667) #
Well, speaking of rentals, Hazel Mae just tweeted this:
"Josh Donaldson (calf) has suffered a setback. He will be re-evaluated again in 3 weeks."
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#360668) #
Lucky the Jays have a lot of players in the minors. Could trade almost everyone on the big club and still field a team.
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#360670) #
On a much darker note, Urshela has been DFA'd.
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Chuck - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#360672) #
Josh Donaldson (calf) has suffered a setback.

A bunch of guys were going to get rich beyond belief this off-season. The now health-addled Donaldson. The slump-ridden Harper. The brittle, opt-outable Kershaw (still owed 70MM for the next two seasons, so maybe shed no tears).

Machado seems set for a big fat paycheque, though BR has him on pace to be just a 3-WAR SS whereas FG sees him around 5, despite this being the best he's ever hit. A return to 3B would restore his status as top shelf superstar and I imagine that's where the quants would urge their organizations to return him.

If Donaldson never returns to form for the entirety of this season, does he get offered a QO? If so, would he accept?

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bpoz - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#360673) #
With 3 months still to go this season the Donaldson decision in the hands of the medical staff. The FO may have gambled $23 mil on Donaldson and lost.
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#360674) #
does he get offered a QO?

This would have been unthinkable even a short time ago. But yeah, the possibility now is non-zero.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#360675) #
Donaldson will almost certainly get a QO. Whether he accepts it is another question.

Kudos to Gibbons for putting out his best defensive lineup behind the rookie in his debut against a very tough Houston offence.
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Chuck - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#360677) #
"Marwin Gonzalez is maybe the Astros' most valuable player, because he can play so many positions."

Sure he is, Buck. Sure he is.

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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#360678) #
Diaz has been pretty solid at SS. Travis not so much at 2nd.
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CeeBee - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#360679) #
I'd be fine with trading Travis if at all possible and giving the spot to Biggio. He can't be worse IMO
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hypobole - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#360680) #
No, Buck, Borucki hasn't been 8 years in the organisation, as you stated a couple of times. Drafted 2012. This is his 7th year.
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James W - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#360683) #
Yeah, this game is going on mute.
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Gerry - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#360685) #
Nice start by Borucki against a very good hitting team.
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uglyone - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#360686) #
didn't get to see his debut - what kind of velo was borucki showing?
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scottt - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#360687) #
On the radio, they said  Borucki was a right-handed pitcher.

Pretty good start.

Donaldson won't be back before the trade deadline. A QO is pretty much automatic.
The odds of making the playoffs without him are slim to none.

The Jays can still play some very good baseball even if the results are meaningless.

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scottt - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#360688) #
He was around 92-93 on the fastball with some deception, a bit like Happ.
The stuff is different though. He threw the change for strikes on occasions.
The fastball seem to have some lateral movement and he got lots of long fly balls from the end of the bats.
He pitched around Altuve (3 walks) and Breggman? got him for 3 doubles I think. He would have only given 1 run if not for a wild pitch/passed ball.
The defense was solid behind him.

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uglyone - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#360689) #
OK gameday had him 91-93 all game, but called every single fastball a 2-seamer so that means plenty of movement. that can work.

changeup was in the 82-84 range so that's a nice gap too.

how did his curveball look?
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#360690) #
If the Jays can't trade Donaldson in July or August, then the QO is a no brainer. I don't think he would accept it anyway, and if he settles for a short-term deal he might prefer a team that doesn't play on turf, but if the worst case scenario is him accepting it, then having him on the roster for one more year is not too bad. The Jays are killing time until they call up Vlad anyway, so chances are they will put a stop-gap at 3B to start 2019 either way.
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John Northey - Tuesday, June 26 2018 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#360691) #
Solarte is 3B for 2019 at the start, then moves to 2B or DH or wherever needed once Vlad has been down long enough to gain an extra year of control.  If Donaldson accepts the QO then he'll be at 3B to start instead and moved to DH to alternate with Vlad with Morales traded/released to make space.
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lexomatic - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#360693) #
O/U 12 k tonight?
Wrong day.
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ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 03:33 AM EDT (#360694) #
I didn't know until last night that Borucki's father, Ray Borucki, was a minor league ball player - 6 years with the Phillies and his last with Detroit. He made it to AAA as a second baseman but never got to the majors.
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scottt - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 06:57 AM EDT (#360695) #
I don't think he throws a curveball. He mostly faced right handed batters, so he didn't have a lot of opportunity to use his slider.

To me, the fastball had more of an horizontal tail than a standard 2-seamer, but he hardly ever missed over the plate. He painted a lot of corners with both fastball and changeup. I found myself saying "nice pitch" on 2-3 consecutive offerings several times. The thing is that he hides the ball well and seems to pitch effectively out of the stretch.

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scottt - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#360696) #
The one thing I didn't like was Gibbons calling for a hit and run with Smoak on first and Martin at the plate when not a single Blue Jays had been able to put a ball in play.  Diaz had a good game defensively.

Also I learned that the Jays have the most balls in the dirt on throws to first base with 35 or so.

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85bluejay - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#360698) #
Why don't the Jays listen to my advice more often - 2 years ago I advocated signing Charlie Morton who is earning less than Garcia - last year I advocated trading Donaldson & Osuna in July - how much further along would the rebuild be if the FO had done that instead of trying to portray the illusion of contending last year - I think the Nationals would have probably have been willing to build a package around Juan Soto (Robles was the hot guy last year) for Osuna and the Cardinals probably a package around Jack Flaherty for 2 pennant runs with Donaldson. For me so far this is the biggest mistake of the Shapiro tenure - a non-contender holding on to assets too long to sell a few more seats.
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Thomas - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#360699) #
Island Boy, the Batter's Box Top 30's can be a valuable source of information on the Jays minor leaguers.

Ryan's father's minor league career was mentioned in the previews on Ryan in both:
2017: https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20171025162554363 and 2016: https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20161108161543517

I didn't check further back than that.
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uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#360700) #
right Scott - slider not curveball.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#360703) #
... last year I advocated trading Donaldson & Osuna in July

You knew Osuna was a criminal and the solution was to trade him?
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Mike Green - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#360704) #
My first observations of Borucki:

  • good command of the fastball and excellent composure on the mound
  • the changeup still needs some finishing- I would be very happy to see him spending a lot of time with Marco Estrada
It was a fine first outing, with the defence overall helping him out.    His changeup wasn't the swing and miss offering against RHBs that it would need to be for him to do more of the heavy lifting (Houston's regular and excellent lineup does tilt right). 

The hit-and-run decision with Smoak on first and Martin facing a deadly Morton was very strange.  I also wouldn't have pinch-hit Morales for Diaz in the 7th, down two runs and a runner on with two out- it would have made sense to me if the club had Gurriel Jr. on the roster to play shortstop or if Morales was the go-ahead run, but as it was, they had to move Solarte to short and Martin to third for two defensive innings.  Diaz had not looked overmatched by Morton.  Q: If Morales had reached base, would they have  pinch-run Maile for him? 

Charlie Morton's nickname is apparently "Ground Chuck".  Personally, I'd go for "Uncle". 
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pubster - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#360706) #
"You knew Osuna was a criminal and the solution was to trade him?"

If Trump knew I'm sure others knew too!
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hypobole - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#360707) #
Don't know how many here checked out the jasonatthegame twitter feed Gerry posted yesterday, but there is a lot of cool stuff on it, including this youtube interview with Boruki one year ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=42&v=3gLAE11oSYY
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uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#360709) #
heh @ pubster
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uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#360710) #
This is what the Brooksbaseball (Pitchf/x) AI spit out on Borucki after his first start:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=621366

"Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance
Ryan Borucki has thrown 95 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system in 2018, all of them occuring in the MLB Regular Season. In 2018, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph) and Change (84mph), also mixing in a Slider (78mph).

BETA Feature:
Basic description of 2018 pitches compared to other LHP:
His fourseam fastball has heavy sinking action, has an obvious tail, has essentially average velo and results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers. His change is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' changeups, has a lot of backspin and is slightly firmer than usual. His slider (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 6 of them in 2018) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' sliders, has exceptional depth, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' sliders, has short glove-side cut and has below average velo. "
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85bluejay - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#360711) #
"You knew Osuna was a criminal and the solution was to trade him?"

What a silly statement - players get hurt/diminished performance - I wasn't the only person to advocate moving Osuna & donaldson - the Jays weren't contending (only pretending) & you trade away assets that can speed up your rebuild & unlikely to help your next window of contention - it's why the Phillies traded Cole Hamels, the Cubs traded Samardzija & Hammel,Rangers traded Teixeira etc. I wish people would think for a minute before trying to be cute with their post.
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hypobole - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#360712) #
Pre-season, we were the favourites for the 2nd wild card.
Our odds were almost 4 times better than the Mariners. Doing a sell-off in a situation like that would be a kick in the face for season ticket holders.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta=
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mathesond - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#360715) #
85blue jays was advocating for teh trades last July, no this past offseasons. Returns likely would have been greater back then as well.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#360716) #
That is hard to say, mathesond.  Donaldson was hurt in the middle of last year and was hitting .239/.362/.438 on July 29.  He sat out on the 30th.  I imagine that the interest in him was not huge at that point.  He of course got hot after that and there might have been interest before the end of August or certainly during the off-season.  Osuna was a different story- he was very good through July 27 and I am sure would have had considerable interest.  He isn't a free agent until 2021 though, and so he wouldn't be a piece in a typical deadline deal- the Blue Jays even then were looking to have a good club in 2020 and they need pitching.  The logic of trading him (presumably for a significant return) was that you would offer something of value in 2017 for a team in contention and trade less stable (long-term) relief pitching for something else. 

Anyways, I don't think we know what other clubs were prepared to offer, so it's a bit of a mug's game to claim returns on hypothetical trades. 
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pubster - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#360717) #
Hindsight is 20/20.

The Jays were projected for something like 85 wins this season, which would usually put them in the wildcard race.

In the last 3 seasons the last wildcard team had 85, 89, and 86 wins.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#360718) #
I can say however that Osuna & Donaldson trade values are a lot less now than a year ago.
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uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#360720) #
expecting bold moves from this FO will only lead to dissappointment.


might as well settle in for the long lazy river tube ride.
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bpoz - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#360721) #
I don't know what to expect from this FO. 2016 they made the playoffs. To me 2017 was lost due to injuries. 2018 so far looks lost also due to no Tulo, Donaldson, Stroman and Osuna. I don't think they will try to contend because the WCs seem very far away.

I don't see this team getting weaker the rest of the season unless Sanchez is injured and one of T Hernandez or Grichuk gets hurt.

If Donaldson, Stroman, Tulo and Sanchez come back healthy this team is much better. We don't know what will happen about Osuna when his suspension is over.

Happ and Estrada will bring us something. We probably keep Garcia. I cannot see us trading anyone that is good and healthy now. The big loss to the team will be Happ. He probably cannot be replaced.


I am sort of hoping that Granderson and a few of the bullpen arms get traded so that a few kids can come up.
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John Northey - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#360729) #
I think a big plus for us fans is the bandwagon crowd.  The Jays skyrocketed in attendance and TV ratings when they were in the playoffs 2 years in a row.  Now they are out 2 years in a row and the crowds have dropped by 10k a game and I'm sure TV ratings also have dropped.  The Jays have a high ceiling and low floor to work with.  To ownership that means contending is worth big bucks and they will want those bucks.  The post-playoff hangover seems to be 1 year so they now know they get 1 year of grace after being good before the fans flee like rats from a sinking ship.  They will want the Jays to be contenders in 2019, 2020 at the latest.  The pressure will be on the front office.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#360734) #
Grichuk 9, Hernandez 7 Solarte 5, Pearce 0 Morales 3 Pillar 8 Diaz 6 Maile 2 Travis 4 is your lineup. 

Different.  There are no obvious answers,but it's a bit strange to have your low OBP, high power guys lined up at the top of the order. 
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85bluejay - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#360736) #
I would be stunned if the Jays are contenders in 2019 - really 2021 seems more hopeful - Shapiro has already mentioned in preseason chats that if revenue fall this year - attendance/tv ratings - then a corresponding adjustment in the budget would have to be made - I expect the Jays to be dumpster diving this winter and a significant drop in the budget - most of the money coming off the books will not be spent IMO - why is why I wouldn't be surprised if Donaldson is not QO if the possibility exist that he may accept.
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uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#360741) #
"Shapiro has already mentioned in preseason chats that if revenue fall this year - attendance/tv ratings - then a corresponding adjustment in the budget would have to be made"

lmao. what a rat.
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mathesond - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#360743) #
Hey, remember when Estrada was on a roll? Those were good times.
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Chuck - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#360744) #
Those were good times.

Yeah, it takes me back.

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uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#360746) #
remember when I said he was "officially NOT toast"?
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SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#360748) #
Payroll in 2019 really doesn't mean much. The team is not at a point where spending in free agency will make a huge difference, and the Vlad/Bo/Jansen/Biggio/Alford/etc group isn't likely to see their first full big league seasons until 2020 (assuming they get called up mid-2019). It's going to be a non-discreet transition year, even if Rogers doesn't want it to be.
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Chuck - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#360749) #
So it appears we are heading to a final score of 5-3 and not 45-27, as I was kinda hoping for.
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uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#360750) #
agreed SK - carrying some bad contracts in rebuild years is meaningless.
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Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#360751) #
Pillar really needs to start throwing the ball with a bit more accuracy.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#360753) #
I'm not watching the game, but my strike zone ump has a pretty amazing one.  Apparently, the home plate umpire called a pitch 6" high a strike to Kendrys Morales in the sixth inning.  It's a 0 percenter.
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scottt - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#360754) #
Maybe a swing?
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uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#360755) #
well, at least Kate Upton is hot.
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hypobole - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#360756) #
That was a spunky performance in a series against a team that is as good as any the league.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#360764) #
Zack Cozart is out for the year with the Angels - Solarte would make a very sensible addition and give Lourdes Gurriel some playing time.
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hypobole - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#360765) #
We might pass the Angels by the trade deadline. They've hit the skids.
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SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#360766) #
I'm sure a big part of acquiring Solarte, Grichuk, and Diaz was to have cheap, controllable, capable MLB players for 2019-20. I doubt the FO is going to trade any of them this deadline. More likely they will be starting at 3B, RF, and SS respectively in 2019 (assuming Donaldson is gone). My guess is this will be a strategic rebuild where the Jays will always have movable vets holding down jobs until it makes sense for a prospect to take over (service time considerations factored in).

This trade deadline looks like it will be getting rid of the expiring contracts (Happ, Estrada, Granderson, Pearce, possibly a reliever or two, etc). All of them are performing well to varying degrees so the Jays should be able to get some value. Too bad Donaldson won't be part of that group. Well, he might be, but time is not on his side.

I'll be interested to see if they consider moving someone like Pillar or Smoak. Neither one figures to have a ton of value right now, and there's no one in AAA waiting for 1B or CF to open up (Alford has been a huge disappointment) so maybe not. Pillar is someone who was always going to lose value the older/more expensive he got. Defensive decline, especially on turf with the amount of flying around he has done, was inevitable.
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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#360767) #
it's like you feel the need to preemptively defend every potential crappy move the FO might make by trying to make it sound smart and savvy.

how is the team not clearly better served by trading solarte when he might have some value?
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John Northey - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#360768) #
hypobole - wow, didn't notice how bad the LAA are doing.  Just 4 games ahead of the Jays now.  Oakland and LAA are the only teams within 10 of the wild card.  Minnesota and Detroit the only teams within 10 of the division leader (not counting the 2 wild cards - Yankees & Seattle). 

The NL is far more competitive with 13 of 15 teams still within 10 games of a wild card, 11 within 5 games (including the teams leading divisions/wild card).  I suspect any trades will probably be to the NL as they are so tight that any move could jump a team ahead of the pack.  Gotta figure most of them would LOVE to get Happ.Tepera, Oh, Clippard, or a good utility guy like Solarte although I'd rather the Jays held onto him unless given a great deal.  I figure Granderson and Pearce are both available for a B level return (ie: talent in lower minors or likely backup or reliever in higher minors).
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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#360769) #
Not sure how I was doing anything other than stating what I think will happen (with Solarte and others). Considering the amount of years of cheap control that they have, why do you think they were acquired in the first place? Unlike you, I’ve been all for a rebuild after 2016 ended. I wouldn’t mind at all if they sold high on vets. Doesn’t mean I think it will happen. I mentioned Osuna as a trade candidate last year as well but knew he wasn’t going to be moved. They have a pretty transparent team building philosophy.
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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#360770) #
why don't you state what you WANT to happen instead of trying to make everybody ok with what you think the FO will do?

if we can get a half decent prospect for Solarte next month - do you want us to make that trade or not?
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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#360771) #
If the Jays can get a good/sensible package for any player I’d be fine with it, as long as it made sense. That’s pretty self explanatory. Solarte is not an exception to that. I think I’ve been pretty clear with what I wanted since Shapiro took over. This team will never fully rebuild with Rogers owning it so pushing that aside, what the front office has done is pretty much the direction I would have went with rebuidling off the table. I disagree with some of the big league moves (Morales in particular, and not moving Osuna and Donaldson last year will bite them badly) but add cheap vets to hold spots until prospects are ready and focus heavily on the farm system. I’ve been pretty consistent with that. If they decide to move vets because they got a good offer for them, why in the world would I object to that?
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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#360772) #
because you were talking about this clever sounding "strategic rebuild" which required us to keep guys like solarte as placeholders.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#360773) #
If you’re asking me whether I think Solarte will return a good trade package, I have no idea. He was traded for a boom or bust lottery ticket in Olivares 5-6 months ago (in other words, not much). We saw 3B types with better defensive reputations have trouble finding jobs as free agents, and Solarte’s defense hasn’t exactly been stellar. It’s hard to really gauge what his value might be.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#360774) #
Strategic: “relating to the identification of long-term or overall aims and interests and the means of achieving them“.

I honestly don’t know how you interpreted that as me unfairly praising the FO. Strategic in this case means we are going to see a bunch of Morales, Solarte, Pearce, Garcia, etc, types fill big league holes until prospects take over. The FO clearly wants a team full of young position players at some point. This is just a means to get there without a scorched earth approach.

I’m glad I’m not the only insomniac on this forum but I think you’re arguing for no reason here.
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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 01:41 AM EDT (#360776) #
Eduardo Nunez was a 1 WAR player when the Giants traded him to the Red Sox for a couple of pitching prospects. Similar defensive profile. Nunez has more speed, Solarte pop.

Solarte might fetch a bit more because of the 2 potential years of control, and it being the teams decision whether they keep him or let him walk.

But depends on whether there is a contender with the need for him also. Hard to be a seller if there is no buyer.
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scottt - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 06:50 AM EDT (#360779) #
Solarte is worth about 2 WAR. A solid regular, but not a star. He's a decent utility player, but better at 3B than 2B.
He's not particularly cheap at about 5M a year. A contending team probably wants a better player and might just need him as a placeholder while dealing with injuries. I don't expect a huge return.

The front office raised the floor over the winter. Should they lower it now, just to get some fringe prospects who are either long shots or who won't find room on the 40 roster?

Clearly Pearce and Granderson should go to contenders to free more time for Hernandez,  Grichuk  and a rotating 4th outfielder.

Tellez hasn't earned a promo, so no reason to shop Smoak. They do have 2 catchers who look ready in AAA and nowhere to play them. Would be nice to get something for Maile and move Martin to super utility.

It will be interesting to see what they do with Alford. There's a lot of center fielders out there who don't hit a ton. Pillar hits for .300 for month but always seem to end the year hitting .250. Should they move Pillar if they get a good return? Or is there a difference between Pillar and Solarte? They do have a lot of defensive center field options, even if they lose a bit on offense.

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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#360780) #
"The FO clearly wants a team full of young position players at some point. This is just a means to get there without a scorched earth approach."

and what's the objection to the scorched earth approach again?

and why can't the jays sign some cheapo FAs to fill gaps when needed?


and yeah "strategic rebuild" still sounds like you trying to make non-optimal FO moves sound smart.

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grjas - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#360783) #
The most frustrating thing about this year is Donaldson injuries and Osuna lunacy. We could have had three of the best trade candidates in baseball with the potential to really strengthen the team in the future. Now we can hopefully get one good young player and may be a couple of youngsters with league average potential. Sigh.
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lexomatic - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#360784) #
People like Jamie Moyer throw 78mph sliders. That's a fail and likely a curve at that speed. Re Borucki pitch classification.
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lexomatic - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#360785) #
Also a separation of 14 mph is insane for fastball VS slider. That would be all over the internet prospect analysis.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#360788) #
"and what's the objection to the scorched earth approach again?"

According to you two years ago, it was because Shapiro inherited a gold mine of old players that were never going age and easily contend for years to come, but the real answer is probably something only Rogers can answer. They should have rebuilt after 2016, but after two straight ALCS appearances it was never going to happen. Now it's likely not necessary as long as they maximize the value of their key assets since Vlad and company are likely a half season in 2019 away from being in the bigs.

The FO acquired Solarte to be a cheap placeholder. He was acquired for the equivalent value of a cheap placeholder. Not sure why you'd think other FO's view his value any differently, but sure if another team does, then pull the trigger. However, 1) I don't think another team will value him that highly, and 2) the cheap remaining years of his deal were a big reason why he was acquired in the first place. I don't see a trade happening there unless another team overpays.


"and why can't the jays sign some cheapo FAs to fill gaps when needed?"

You threw a fit when they signed Granderson for 1/5, so not sure why you're suddenly trying to convince others who have had no issues with signing cheap FA's the last 3 years of doing exactly that.


"and yeah "strategic rebuild" still sounds like you trying to make non-optimal FO moves sound smart."

If you say so.
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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#360789) #
why are you bringing up 2-3 years ago? what does that have to do with anything?

and Yangervis is having a much better year than last year, and probably would return more than we gave up for him.

but that's besides the point - I don't know why you do this pre-emptive defense-laying for any move this FO makes, even when it's clear you don't want them to make those moves.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#360792) #
Ugly,

The only agenda rearing it's head in this debate (which appears more an investigation by you into SK) is your consistent raking of the Shapiro front office. You're the one accusing other posters of defending this FO which implies they must be defending from someone...fans and posters like yourself are who they are defending against. You're basically trying to put a poster in a corner here even after that poster has clearly stated what was already obvious (even though he shouldn't even have to validate or be questioned for his opinion).

You've had a chip on your shoulder since AA was canned and always looked at what the FO was doing and rallied about going the opposite way, even if they've switched from one extreme (signing Bautista big money) to another (signing Granderson $5 million).
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bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#360793) #
I like the word strategic. 1) Strategic moves to try to contend by acquiring cheap veterans to play regularly or as depth players in case of injury. I think most of us have figured this part out. 2) Strategic rebuild. I think most of us have opinions, some have strong opinions. Since these opinions cover the extremes as well as the middle, it sounds to me that we are not sure what is going on. IMO "Scorched earth" seems to say a massive youth movement (losing or winning is irrelevant). The other extreme to scorched earth, to me anyway is also irrelevant except it could mean that the record must be reasonably mediocre. IMO the middle could be between the 2 ends. I don't have details on how to expand upon the middle and the unscorched end.

For me the good news is that the FO likely will choose middle and unscorched, but their wording may be open to interpretation.
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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#360794) #
dali, I respectfully disagree.

There are posters who reflexively and preemptively set up arguments to defend moves that they obviously don't agree with.

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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#360796) #
dalimon5, it's either trolling on Ugly's part (considering he's had this same issue with a few posters here it might be) or he takes anything he perceives to be praise of the FO way too seriously. Anyone who read my original post that sparked this whole thing and saw any sort of praise for the FO is either reading way too much into it or wanting to rehash this argument again for no reason. Unfortunately I took the bait.
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bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#360801) #
I think it was the Washington thread in which UO put up a nice roster of v young players for 2020 I think. I don't expect it to be 100% accurate, but it is a good base for discussion. Please note that I could not find it so maybe it was not UO or it never even happened.

This is my 2 cents about 2020. Tulo is not a young prospect on the farm. If he is still here his salary is $14 mil. Some may think/have suggested that we need SPs for 2020 to bolster Stroman and Sanchez. I agree and think 7 is a good number. 3-4 from the farm are reasonable. I would hope that 5-6 will be given the opportunity to succeed or fail. So far Biagini, Gaviglio and Borucki are/have been getting the opportunity. I don't expect all 3 to be in the 2020 rotation. If I am right, I am shocked. On the negative side, not to discourage anyone, that looks like a weak rotation at the moment.




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Parker - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#360807) #
expecting bold moves from this FO will only lead to dissappointment.

might as well settle in for the long lazy river tube ride.

No doubt. It's not like this front office has had any success with a lower payroll.
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Parker - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#360808) #
officially not toast.

You just keep on doing this. Do you ever get tired of being wrong all the time?

Just curious.
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greenfrog - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#360811) #
I’m not saying the front office should be immune from criticism, but they have made many good moves since taking over (Happ, Teoscar, Diaz, Grichuk, Estrada, Solarte, Granderson, good value relievers, Bichette, Pearson, Pardinho, Smith, Hiraldo, Taylor, Orelvis (reportedly), to name a few). I just don’t see much cause for complaint. The main reason the team isn’t good this year is because it’s old and battered (mainly AA holdovers like Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Stroman), plus Osuna has been suspended for most of the year.
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bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#360812) #
Agreed 100% greenfrog. Injuries have crippled us in 2017 and 2018. I have not done the research but has the injury bug been kinder to some other strong AL teams?

2016 was a good year regarding injuries especially to our rotation.

Can Severino (NYY) and C Sale (Boston) be this lucky the next 3 years. I can see injuries happening to our direct rivals.
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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#360814) #
The battered may be mostly holdovers from AA, but the old is mostly the current FO. Guys 33-37 yrs old

AA guys - Tulo, Martin.
S/A guys - Grandy, Morales, Pearce, Happ, Estrada, Oh, Axford, Clippard.
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bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#360816) #
Garcia is also Shapiro and Atkins. Not old because he is a lefty. Still adjusting to being a SP in the AL East. He adds depth to our rotation for next year.
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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#360817) #
And one weird note. The 16th and 17th oldest guys on the team were drafted out of college by the J. P. Riccardi regime.
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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#360818) #
bpoz, I defend the FO at times, but if they pick up Garcia's option, they should be canned.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#360820) #
Agreed greenfrog. I think the approach and execution by the front office has been very good. Some fans might be upset at the "middle ground" approach, rather than doing one extreme ("going for it") or the other (rebuilding), but when you realize who owns this team and how old this team was post-2016, there was really only one logical direction, and this FO has done it about as well as I hoped they would. Value in versus value out, there's really no reason to complain, and the farm is looking great.

The stars from the 2015 team have a combined 2018 WAR of 2.3. That's Donaldson, Martin, Tulo (hurt all year), Edwin, and Bautista. The highest from that group belongs to a player that couldn't get a big league deal all winter (Bautista with a surprisingly solid year). Anyone who wanted the team to double down on this group post-2016 should be thankful the FO did not listen to them.
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Chuck - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#360821) #
Ryan Goins has been cut loose by KC. This could be the end.
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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#360824) #
"Some fans might be upset at the "middle ground" approach, rather than doing one extreme ("going for it")"

the history of the Blue Jays most supports which of these approaches, do you think?
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CeeBee - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#360825) #
Goins Goins, gone?
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greenfrog - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#360826) #
It’s also worth recalling that some of the critics of the front office loathed the Happ signing and piled on the front office at the time. Happ has been a low-cost #1 or #2 starter since then, so those critics have lost some credibility, in my view.
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bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#360827) #
This year has to be very hard for Donaldson. 2015 MVP. He and the team know the details of his current health regarding the shoulder and calf. He will play next year at age 33. Not too old.

I think he should consider 3B, 1B and DH. If he can hit well then he will make good money, one would think. Due to injury, he cannot run or throw very well. I would guess hard and accurate throwing is difficult with that shoulder. I don't know how much his hitting is affected.
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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#360828) #
Happ's miraculous mid-30s transformation is definitely the one move the shapkins defenders can hang their hats on.

I sure hope shapkins thank Lacava every day for that.
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CeeBee - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#360829) #
They could also get him a cane to help him get around the bases ;)
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uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#360831) #
Happ

24-32: 171gs, 104era-, 105fip-, 107xfip-, 11.0awar, 2.1awar32
30-32: 75gs, 103era-, 100fip-, 103xfip-, 5.4awar, 2.3awar32
33-35: 73gs, 79era-, 88fip-, 93xfip-, 9.2awar, 4.0awar32

pretty remarkable to see a career turn around at age 33.


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greenfrog - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#360832) #
Yes, the front office made a very good assessment of Happ’s future value, so credit to them.
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bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#360834) #
5 teams will be in the post season in the NL. More if there are ties.

Washington, Cubs, St Louis, Arizona, LAD and SF all have recent winning experience. Their teams are made up of players who have had recent success.


Philadelphia, Atlanta and Milwaukee don't have many of those types of players. Some trades and FA signings gave them a few.


I am happy that AA got a 2nd chance in Atlanta. I decided to follow Atlanta because I am curious and I think AA has potential. IMO it is crucial that he does something to strengthen his team this trade deadline. Winning will help him keep his job.
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bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#360837) #
Would Loup help St Louis? They like acquiring players from us.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#360838) #
"the history of the Blue Jays most supports which of these approaches, do you think?"


For where the Jays were after 2016, 'going for it' was not a sensible option. So you could argue that not rebuilding after 2016 was a bad decision, and it might have been given the value lost by keeping Donaldson in particular, but again that leads back to ownership green-lighting a rebuild after two straight ALCS appearances. Rogers wanted the Jays to contend in 2013 after they lost 90 games in each of the previous two years. I don't think rebuilding is something they ever want to do, much less after the revenue/ratings they got from 2015-16.

Build a good young core first, then supplement them with free agents and trade expendable surplus prospects in trades. That's essentially how the Jays should build the team, and that appears to be where they are trying to go. That is where the Shapiro regime will be put to the test. Trying to prolong success after 2016 by continuing to 'go for it' would have been a disaster.
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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#360843) #
Assuming each offseason's budget was spent in its entirety, I would grade them as A, F, B in process, A, F, C in results.
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Chuck - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#360844) #
Winning will help him keep [AA] his job.

I can't help but think that Atlanta is ahead of schedule as far as winning goes. The team is riding lots of over-achieving, both among the hitters and the pitchers. I expect Washington to snap out of its funk and pass the Braves, and I would expect that AA, and his bosses, will still be pleased with this season even if things go sideways in the second half.

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grjas - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#360850) #
I sure hope shapkins thank Lacava every day for that.
Or find a pitching coach of similar calibre.
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jerjapan - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#360856) #
I don't particularly like the current FO compared to the previous one - the passionate, risk-taking young Canadian ninja was easier to like than corporate man Shapiro, but it's hard to really fault their overall performance.  Lots of clever value moves,  only one big whiff in Morales, who seems to desperately be trying to reward their patience in him with his recent run.  The future is bright, and I think both FOs deserve credit for that. 

The only thing that really sticks in my craw is that Shapiro himself said last year that we needed a rebuild, but the fan base 'demanded' we try to contend.  That's some serious BS, and borderline inexcusable if true.  Leaders are supposed to make tough choices.  Shapiro is just too PR oriented for my tastes, although frankly I took that comment as pure spin.  Or, to put it less kindly, a total lie.  Which, ironically, is better than the alternative. 
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grjas - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#360861) #
Sorry I meant a pitching coach of similar caliber to Searage.

Walker’s been around a long time, and has he really made a difference? New blood would be fine with me
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greenfrog - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#360862) #
I agree with your overall assessment, jerjapan.

I thought AA really hit his stride in his last year as the Jays GM, with moves like Donaldson, Martin, Travis, Smoak, Estrada, Price, and Tulo to vault the team into serious contention. The irony, though, is that he didn't quite go all-in enough in his last year; he apparently declined to trade for Zobrist at the July 2015 deadline. That move might have made the difference between a WS championship and an ALDS title.

At the same time, even if I don't much care for the new corporate tone and obfuscatory PR, I mostly respect what the current front office (which, it should be noted, still has LaCava on board) has done so far. I like that Shapiro is establishing more of a collaborative, process-oriented approach with bright minds in a variety of roles across the organization, and that they're trying some new things like the HP department and overhauling the spring training facility. There have been a number of positive surprises from less-heralded players on the farm this year, which suggests that the front office may be on the right track in terms of its drafting and player development approaches.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#360866) #
I really don't see why such a rage even exists as far as AA vs. Shapiro, especially in hindsight. AA left the team with one more serious contention season (2016). The new FO was able to put enough around the existing talent to take advantage of that one year window (Happ, Estrada, Liriano, Benoit, etc). However, the reality was that after 2016, the FO desperately needed to scale back and focus on bringing the farm system back up since the big league window was essentially shut the moment Bautista and Encarnacion were no longer "elite sluggers on bargain contracts".

The Jays were always going to take it on the chin in 2017-19. That was simply the price for the two straight ALCS appearances, which I don't think anyone would take back. The Jays could have won a World Series in one of those two years, so regardless of how short the run was, the objective (making the playoffs) was met.

When you look at where the farm system is now, how much flexibility there will be around the time Vlad and co. will be called up for good, and the amount of solid value deals on the roster (aside from Morales, Tulo, and Martin), I don't see how anyone can complain about where the team is. They smartly avoided the mistake of bringing the same crew back after 2016, put a lot of money into player development, have gotten good reviews for their drafting, made sensible trades where the talent coming in usually far exceeds the value going out, etc. They aren't perfect, but the team is in a good spot long-term.

I think it's pretty easy to look back and see how fortunate the Jays were for their 2015-16 run and for having a FO smart enough to pivot in 2017-beyond when the situation called for it.
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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#360867) #
Just checked FG to find how many players have 200 PA's, under .200 BA, positive WAR.

I present the Russell Martin All-Star Team.

Russell Martin 212 PA, .168 BA, 0.1 WAR
Jarrod Dyson 222 PA, .181 BA, 0.1 WAR
Matt Joyce 216 PA, .198 BA, 0.1 WAR
Joey Gallo 312 PA, .190 BA, 0.5 WAR
Mike Zunino 204 PA, .191 BA, 0.7 WAR
Kolten Wong 216 PA, .196 BA, 0.8 WAR
Gary Sanchez 265 PA, .190 BA, 1.3 WAR
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Gerry - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#360868) #
Steve Pearce is a Red Sox.
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Gerry - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#360869) #
The return for Pearce is a 23 year old SS, Santiago Espinal. He is still in A ball at age 23 but he is having a good season. I found this report on SoxProspects.com:

Scouting Report: Undersized, athletic middle infielder. Right-handed hitter with a contact-oriented swing. Starts in a slight crouch with an open stance. Loud hands pre-pitch. Two-hand finish. Short swing, direct to the ball. Fringe power potential. Improving pitch recogniton and selection. Average speed. Fluid in the field with above-average range to both sides. Does a good job closing on the ball and plays angles well. Smooth actions, soft hands. Potential above-average defender. Average arm strength. Professional debut was delayed due to a left-hand injury. Signed for well below slot of $157,200. Participated in 2016 Fall Instructional League.
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Gerry - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#360871) #
Espinal is not among the Red Sox top 30 prospects per MLB Pipeline. Fangraphs did not mention him in their Red Sox prospect report.

Espinal could be a late bloomer. He went to Miami Dade Community College and was drafted in 2016. Then, as mentioned above he had an injury so this is his second season.
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bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#360872) #
Thanks Gerry.
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greenfrog - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#360873) #
He was listed in the “others of note” section of Sickels’s Red Sox top 20 prospects for 2018 writeup.
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scottt - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#360874) #
My first observations of Borucki:
  • good command of the fastball and excellent composure on the mound
  • the changeup still needs some finishing- I would be very happy to see him spending a lot of time with Marco Estrada

The changeup has been Borucki's bread and butter's pitch even before he was drafted 7 years ago. He's widely considered as having the best changeup in the Jays system. He has the same arm action on both pitches.

People like Jamie Moyer throw 78mph sliders. That's a fail and likely a curve at that speed. Re Borucki pitch classification.

Also a separation of 14 mph is insane for fastball VS slider. That would be all over the internet prospect analysis.

Borucki's slider is still a work in progress with varying shape and pace. The hitter can tell right away that's it's something else, so he needs to get it in the strike zone or close to the outside corner for it to be effective. His arm slot isn't conductive to throwing a curve, like Estrada's or Biagini's. His fastball tails.


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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#360875) #
Steve Pearce traded to Boston
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scottt - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#360876) #
An above defender at shortstop could become a bench player, if nothing else.
We could have used a guy like that--with better bat skills than Ngope--while Diaz  was on the bench.  .314/.364/.478 slash with seven home runs and nine steals over 280 plate appearances. Better than nothing.

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SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#360877) #
I have never heard of Espinal, but here is a write up from Fangraphs from 'The Fringe Five Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects' in May:

"Santiago Espinal, 2B/SS, Boston
Espinal appeared among the Next Five portion of last week’s edition. In the seven days since, though, he’s strengthened his case for inclusion here, recording an isolated-power mark of .370 while striking out in just three of his 29 plate appearances.

Selected out of Miami-Dade College in the 10th round of the 2016 draft, Espinal signed for just $50,000. In light of his diminutive stature, Espinal doesn’t appear to offer much projection on the power. Indeed, entering the season, he’d hit just four homers in over 600 professional appearances. Through just 133 plate appearances of the present campaign, however, Espinal already has five.

As is the case with many player to demonstrate this kind of improvement in the majors, Espinal is hitting many fewer batted balls on the ground. In fact, his ability to avoid both the whiff and ground is tops among players at High-A:

In addition to these promising indicators, Espinal also add defensive value, having made all 29 of his starts in the field at shortstop, where he receives fair if not excellent reviews from the advanced metrics."

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-107/
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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#360878) #
For this guy"

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/espinal-santiago.htm

Toronto also sends some cash in the deal.
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Gerry - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#360879) #
Espinal was pulled after one at-bat tonight stopping his 15 game hit streak.
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scottt - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#360880) #
He stole 20 bases last year and is 9 in 10 this year. He looks interesting.
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hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#360884) #
Opens a 25 man and a 40 man spot. Espinal won't have to be added till after next season.
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scottt - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#360885) #
25 spot probably goes to either Gurriel or a pitcher.
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Marc Hulet - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#360886) #
Honestly, Espinal is org filler... upside of Cesar Izturis. He fills a need with Warmoth out. He was one of those 10th round picks made to save cash for other players... signed for $50K in a slot that was worth about $174K... an Ian Parmley type.
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Cracka - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#360887) #
Or Ryan Goins? I sure hope not, but he's just sitting there and would only cost ~$500k for the rest of the season.

Steve Pearce becomes the 2nd player in recent memory the complete the "AL East cycle" (play for all 5 teams) following Kelly Johnson.
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vw_fan17 - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#360890) #
Probably the best they could do, but.. a little underwhelming, if you ask me.. Then again, I barely know anything about our prospects let alone another org's, so.. my opinion matters very little..
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mendocino - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#360891) #
Jays director of amateur scouting Steve Sanders would have inside scoop on Espinal (ex-Red Sox asst. director amateur scouting)
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ComebyDeanChance - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 02:29 AM EDT (#360893) #
He fills a need with Warmoth out.

If the suggestion is that Pearce was traded for someone to replace Warmoth while he's out, that suggestion is ludicrous.
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Jonny German - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 06:12 AM EDT (#360894) #
Espinal is a lottery ticket, nothing more, but I'm happy with the trade. Now it's easy to give Grichuk, Hernandez, Granderson the playing time they deserve and also give plenty of time to Pillar and Morales. And the bench can have an actual middle infielder on it even if they continue with the 8-man pen.
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scottt - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 06:19 AM EDT (#360895) #
Exactly, Espinal profiles as an infield utility guy with on base skills, good defense and speed off the bench. It's the type of guy every team needs, even if he has limited value. Pearce himself has limited value. I figure it was either that or a minor league reliever.
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hypobole - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#360897) #
If the suggestion is that Pearce was traded for someone to replace Warmoth while he's out, that suggestion is ludicrous.

My thinking also, CDC. What need? Jays system was already overflowing with MI's.
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Thomas - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#360899) #
I don't think Espinal looks like a particularly notable prospect.

However, if he was a truly an org player from Toronto's perspective, why would they have included cash in the deal as well as opposed to trading him for a 24-year-old pitcher with a high ERA in low A and just pocketing the savings?

I know it's a buyer market, but it seems a little strange than the best the Jays could do was to save something like half of Pearce's remaining salary and get a non-prospect in return. Which makes me wonder if there is someone in the front office who like Espinal more than the consensus.
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rpriske - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#360901) #
Pearce wasn't really traded for Espinal. He was traded for the open roster spot the trade creates. Espinal is a throw in.
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jerjapan - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#360946) #
SK, what 'rage' are you talking about?  the 'ragiest' commentary I'm familiar with about the front office and our management was from the Stoeten camp, and now that he's got a more established gig, he's toned the rage down to the point where it is obvious, in my mind, that he was raging for clickbait purposes.  Who here on the box is raging about Shapiro and co?  I guess you could say Uglyone, but Ugly has only been consistent in disliking the approach, in my books.  That's not the same as rage.  The ragiest posters were anti-AA and, to their credit, have toned the rage down significantly. 

I challenge the existence of this 'rage' meme.  It does nothing to further the discourse.  People can disagree without rage, and I recognize the irony of this coming from me ... I'm working hard to distance myself from 'raging'.  But review this thread.  No rage in sight.  The worst we get is someone calling an opinion 'ludicrous', which I'm not a fan of, but clearly doesn't qualify as rage.
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Gerry - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#360949) #
Darnell Sweeney called up to be the utility guy.
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jerjapan - Friday, June 29 2018 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#360952) #
oof.  Why not J-Leb?  I really feel it's fair to say that our FO prefers people from outside the system.
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