In addition to his homer, Kevin Smith walked and did not strike out.  He's now hitting .329/.392/.529 in Dunedin.  Over his minor league career (515 PAs), he's 22-2 stealing bases and has 50 doubles and 5 triples.  That's a pretty good indicator that he's got legs and knows how to use them. 

Mike I posted this a while back on Smith:

"quality athlete with excellent speed, have routinely timed him between 4.14-4.19 seconds home to first from the right side"

That's 60-65 grade speed. That "below average runner" comment on Pipeline is garbage.

for what it's worth, the BP defensive metrics rank Smith as by far the best defensive SS in the system this year.

on the other end, they think Vicuna is by far the worst, which means I might have to stop keeping tabs on him as a real prospect.

BP's FRAA

K.Smith 63gms, +4.8 (last year 61gms, +8.3)
L.Warmoth 45gms, +2.8 (last year 45gms, -0.1)
B.Bichette 68gms, +2.6 (last year 110gms,+0.3)
R.Urena 25gms, -0.7 (last year 146gms, -4.4)
L.Gurriel 28gms, -2.0 (last year 64gms, +2.4)
K.Vicuna 62gms, -3.0 (last year 84gms, +0.6)

might as well look at the catchers:

McGuire: 43gms, +6.5 (last year 45gms, +5.1)
Adams: 50gms, +2.4 (last year 52gms, -0.6)
Jansen: 52gms, +0.4 (last year 104gms, -3.3)

Also to answer the question "Who the heck is this All-Star Dany Jimenez?" everyone is asking, I looked him up.

24 yr old RH RP. Signed at 21. I'm guessing he's a converted position player, since a report behind the BA paywall lists him as an OF.

Command doesn't seem a strong suit, but over 11 K/9 for the 2nd straight year.

Baseball Census video link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIzszBNcgDM

"you can see Dany Jimenez throw parts of two innings in relief for the Toronto Blue Jays' Low-A spring squad, in an outing during which the tall, lanky righty sat 90-94 mph with his fastball, and paired with a spinning slider from 79-82 mph, and a straight changeup from 80-82 mph."

UO please explain the breakdown of the numbers for McGuire and Jansen. When not catching they are DHing.

IMO Jansen is very much better offensively than McGuire. I rate them equally as defensive DHs. I understand that McGuire is better defensively than Jansen as a catcher. How bad is Jansen's defense?

ah what the hey let's do them all:


Guerrero 53gms, -0.5 (last year 119gms, -4.1)

Taylor 59gms, +3.1 (last year 52gms, +1.5)
Biggio 66gms, -0.8 (last year 127gms, +6.8)

C.Young 60gms, +8.8 (last year 67gms, +15.9)
D.Smith 40gms, +4.4 (last year 108gms, -4.8)
A.Alford 46gms, -1.5 (last year 77gms, +5.9)
D.Pompey 23gms, -3.1 (last year 13gms, -0.2)
J.Palacios 62gms, -7.5 (last year 91gms, -1.5)

Tellez 58gms, +0.0 (last year 122gms, +1.8)



some interesting numbers in there, imo.

Chavez Young certainly jumps off the page.

bpoz - i'm not going to pretend to know the intricacies of BP's minor league defensive metrics...especially since they aren't the most transparent website when it comes to their methods. But in general I trust that they are a pretty good estimate - with the caveats that even MLB defense is extremely hard to measure, and MILB defense is even harder....and I assume it only gets more difficult the further down the minor leagues you go.

I do think that BP has by far the best catcher defense metrics for major league players, though. They have a system which factors in the pitchers throwing to them and the umpires calling the balls and strikes.

as for Jansen v McGuire - I assume the numbers ignore the DH time (which now I realize means my "games played" numbers don't make much sense...ah well). But they seem to confirm the scouting reports - Jansen is a capable defensive catcher, while McGuire is an excellent one.

uo - Vicana's past reports say excellent glove, weak arm so he's also seen time at 2nd base the past couple of seasons, though with Samad in Lansing his opportunities are limited. Are those #'s SS only? If so how does he rate at 2nd?.

Griffin Conine is on the GCL roster today so he's clearly signed.

Thanks Marc.

Thanks, Marc. Do you have anything you add on Kevin Smith? Saw a few of his games on milb and he really seemed to barrel balls well.

yeah Hypo I was totally under the impression that Vicuna was an ace glove at SS too.

Now I'm unsure.

So uo, do those #'s you posted include his time at 2nd base?

Thanks for all the numbers UO. They are helpful.

Those defensive numbers on Vicuna don’t match the eye test on him from last year in Vancouver. I would have said, above average range, above average glove, and an average arm. But who knows, maybe this is another case of the eye test failing? I will say that I am confident that he’s a better defensive SS than Warmoth notwithstanding those numbers.

Taylor is definitely a 2B only prospect.

"I'm happy with the draft overall. It isn't one player but quite a few who I think have a decent chance to make it. With luck, two or three will."

My feelings as well. Prospects are a bit of a crapshoot so getting more quality prospects and spreading risk out seems like a good idea. There are about four or five genuinely interesting prospects from this class.

Nigel, just want to say one thing that Marc alluded to about first pro year players, and was also brought up by either Kiley or Eric in an FG chat. These kids are playing a lot longer than they ever have before and that grind wears them down.

That may account for why his D seems better this year that when you saw him, His hitting this year though is definitely disappointing.

If I remember correctly, it was said that the 1st year results do not mean much.

That sounds good for Hagan Danner because he was not good last year. But N Pearson had absolutely great results last year. Bo was doing very well until that appendix operation.


Maybe the 1st year means little and it is the winter training if it happens that carries more weight.

In my last post, by "him" I meant Warmoth.

Conine threw out a runner heading to home at the top of 2nd inning, and walked in his first atbat.

Haven't seen Kloffenstein assigned yet.

Kloff really makes the draft for me.

Most all the other picks are in the "solid" range, but I think Kloff compares very well to arms that were considered to be high/mid first rounders.

Hypobole, I totally understand that about first year pro players. That may well explain Warmoth’s range issues in Vancouver. I don’t know that that would explain his lack of arm strength, but again, maybe. He does have excellent hands and decent athleticism, on the upside. I think his BA will come around in Dunedin and there are some positive signs on the BB% front. I don’t see much power potential though.

I see your point about the arm strength. As for the power, KLaw was very high on Warmoth - loved his swing - but also pointed out scouts were concerned about his exit velocities, so yeah, the power may never come.

Also, from ' FG chat:

12:36 Kevin Smith has looked VERY good all year and hasn't lost a step after his A+ promotion. Do you see him as a big mover on offseason prospect lists? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel
12:37 Saw him briefly last week and he's really shortened up the swing from college. He's fine but not great at SS. One scout compared him to Jordy Mercer, who has had a nice run of being a 45 or 50 FV. That would be a very nice find in the 4th round.

A

Mercer (21): 208pa, 84wrc+
Smith (21): 204pa, 184wrc+

A+

Mercer (22): 580pa, 97wrc+
Smith (21): 79pa, 162wrc+


awful takes are awful.

Hey, what do scouts know?

remember when Kiley told us we ruined Hoffman by "shortening his stride"? that was funny.

I wonder why colorado never bothered fixing him by reversing that.

Why do you keep repeating this "ruined" bs???

the only BS is that he clearly blamed the jays for Hoffman not being as good as he looked pre-draft, due to "shortening his stride", which he copped from Keith Law, who made it up when talking about Sanchez.

IMO we have some ML ready SPs.

1st wave. Borucki, SRF, Romano, Zeuch. Possible Panonne and J Harris if he can keep doing well.

2nd Wave. N Pearson, P Murphy, Y Diaz, Z Logue and A Perdomo.

Nate Pearson was the Jays’ first attempt at signing a #1 Starter for the Team. I think the Jays were planning on Pearson being on the Roster in the 2020 Season. While Pearson as a #1 Starter might still happen, it will take a year or two more than expected. Adam Kloffenstein is the Jays’ next attempt at signing a #1 Starter. I think the Jays see him on the Roster in the 2021 Season.

It’s thought that a true number 1 Stud makes it obvious very early. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did and I thought Nate Pearson did as well. I want to see what Adam Kloffenstein will do.

the only BS is that he clearly blamed the jays for Hoffman not being as good as he looked pre-draft, due to "shortening his stride", which he copped from Keith Law, who made it up when talking about Sanchez.

Not being right 100% of the time entirely destroys someone's credibility when it comes to prospect evaluation?

Hmm.

Could you imagine if the Jays had a roster of Vlady Jr, Bichette, Biggio and Connine? Good bloodlines...

One more chat question

Teo
1:01 Thoughts on Adam Kloffenstein? What's his ceiling A mid-rotation guy? He seems pretty filled out for a HS player st 6'5 220, so I'm wondering how much more projection or velocity there still is left.

Kiley McDaniel
1:02 There's some and he's really loose and athletic, one scout told me he thinks he'll throw 100 in a couple years. Yeah mid rotation upside.

I knew  Guerrero and I knew  Bichette — those guys are tearing it up and you hear about them a lot and I knew about their dads, obviously — but I didn’t know Clemens,  Biggio, and the full extent.

 I’m looking forward to getting to know them and, hopefully, being future teammates with those guys.

There's an article on tsn.ca

I presume that Conine but I can't find the article.

I believe that the Jays are $1 mil over their draft budget.

E Pardinho is pitching tonight for Bluefield.

I got $71,905 left in bonus money
MLB Draft Tracker has Bec's bonus at $5,000

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/bluejays

Thanks, mendocino.

So that means the Jays can throw just under $200 K at one of the unsigned HS kids. Just need one to take it.

Pardinho. Darn good debut for a kid who doesn't turn 18 till next year.

4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K.

I guess Blue Bird signing table must be wrong.

bpoz, no team has gone more than 5% over their bonus pool allotment - the penalties are too severe.

Blue Bird does not have Bec's Bonus included.

The Person who updates the Bluebird Banter Draft Table has a Job, a Family and a Life. He updates everything when good sources are included, but only as he can.

The $71,905.00 figure remaining in the 5% bonus, so up to $196,905.00 may be offered to tempt someone to sign. Maximum penalty for exceeding the MLB Main Draft number occurs if a Team exceeds that number by 15.00001% or by 65% - loss of two 1st Round picks in back-to-back years. If you are going to go over go big, Draft all High School and sign everyone.

Eric J. Dunnett
@ericjdunnett

A name for the future is 17 year old Eric Pardinho from Brazil. In his minor league debut, he was hitting 97mph. As a 17 year old. 97mph.

Best bit from Fangraph chat.

"Fans are too obsessed with the concept of upside anyway. Cameron talked a lot about how we don’t even really know what any given players upside is anyway, which I agree with. We use it since scouts do to speak about physical tools, but we realize it doesn’t mean as much as most fans think it does. Like it’s a good pick because a guy is an 80 runner with an 80 arm and 60 raw power but has never played in a game before…that’s the logical extreme of that obsession."

Article came out 6 days ago.

https://www.tsn.ca/conine-eager-to-catch-up-to-fellow-bloodline-players-in-jays-system-1.1114194

Oddity from the Bisons loss to the PawSox last night.

Josh Smith was the winning pitcher and Josh Smith got the save. That would be Josh D. with the W, Josh A. with the S.