Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Mid Season Prospect Review

Its mid-season so how are our top prospects performing? Today I rate their first halves against expectations. On the field it was a bad night. Tim Mayza gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth to turn a two run lead into a loss. New Hampshire and Lansing lost easily. Dunedin were on their way to a big loss until they scored four in the ninth to make it a more respectable one run loss.

Buffalo

The Bisons went down 5-1 and came back to lead 7-5 until Tim Mayza coughed it up in the ninth. Ryan Borucki started and pitched through some trouble. He did concede five runs, they came on a home run and two doubles. But he knuckled down and went seven innings retiring the last eight hitters in a row. His line was 7 5 5 4 4.

Dwight Smith went 3-4 with a home run. Lourdes Gurriel was 2-4 also with a home run, and a double. His average is up to .292.

New Hampshire

Jordan Romano was outstanding through April and May but this was his second rocky start in a row. Maybe he is working on something. He was fine for two innings, gave up a couple of runs in the third, was routine in the fourth, but the wheels came off in the fifth and he was done. The seven runs he allowed were all earned even though there were a couple of errors behind him. On the hitting side, Gunnar Heidt had three hits. had two hits, his average is up to .299.

Dunedin

Marcus Stroman started and pitched 4.1 innings with 60 pitches. He only had one hit off him but he walked four. Angel Perdomo, the scheduled starter, pitched two innings.

The Jays scored four in the bottom of the ninth to make it a close, 6-5 game. Kacy Clemens, Josh Palacios and Eduard Pinto each had two hits. Logan Warmoth came off the DL, played DH, and was 0-4, all strikeouts.

Lansing

Lansing qualified for the playoffs on Monday and since then they have relaxed, and lost. This game was an 11-3 loss. Chavez Young had three hits. Brock Lundquist and Ryan Noda homered.

3 Stars

3rd star: Gunnar Heidt and Chavez Young

2nd star: Lourdes Gurriel

1st star: Dwight Smith

Boxes

Mid-Season Review

The minor league season is about at the half way mark and the short season teams are starting to play. This seems like a good time to look at the top 30 prospects and take stock. I always remind the reader that one third of the prospects should improve, one third disappoint and one third stay about the same.

Prospects whose stock has improved

Obviously Vlad Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette have exceeded expectations. Before the season we were unsure whether they would return to Dunedin or move up to New Hampshire. They did move up and both have played well and exceeded expectations. You could argue that Bo was a premium prospect and is only meeting expectations but when you are in AA you are very close to the major leagues and for him to be there at age 20 is exceptional.

Danny Jansen is another improver. He had just a brief time in AAA last season and coming into 2018 the question was, could he do it again. Well he has and at a premium position. Jansen's best pal, Ryan Borucki, has also played well in AAA. Borucki has been the Bisons best starter and is in line for a call up this year.

I am going to put Sean Reid-Foley in the improve camp. Coming into the year SRF was thought of as a reliever who couldn't command his pitches. He has pitched well, mostly, and earned a promotion to AAA where he has shown flashes of potential. I don't think he is ready for the big leagues and he is probably a candidate to break in as a reliever, old school style, but he has a better chance of being a major league starter than he did at the start of the season.

Gurriel was our number 13 prospect and there were many doubts over his bat and his defensive position. The defensive issues remain, and defensively he is a work in process, but he has hit well in AAA and, for flashes of time, in the major leagues. In the off-season many thought that he might not ever be a major leaguer. I think he can be although it still could be in a utility role.

Kevin Smith is probably the biggest riser on top 30 lists. He was #21 for Da Box but likely top 10 now.

Jordan Romano has arguably been New Hampshire's best starter. He needed to improve his change up and it is a lot better this year. He is doing well, albeit with a recent hiccup.

Angel Perdomo was Da Boxes number 28 prospect. He was injured to start the season but now has made 9 starts. His WHIP is 1.09 and he has 48 K's in 43 innings. His command has improved this year with his walk rate down to 2.9 per nine innings. The tall lefties take time to get it right but this year its working.

Prospects who have disappointed

I am disappointed in Anthony Alford for this reason: he has been injured with some regularity and when he returns he takes some time to get back into playing form. Usually when he gets back into form is about the time he gets injured again. Is this just a run of bad luck or is it a permanent issue of his? I hope its just bad luck. Alford has scuffled since being injured this year and only recently has been starting to hit. Can he keep hitting without suffering another injury?

Max Pentecost has had an injury riddled career. He is still not an everyday catcher and his bat hasn't come around yet. He gets good reviews from scouts but needs more dedicated playing time behind the plate.

Justin Maese picked up an injury and it could derail his career, shoulders are tricky. Thomas Pannone was suspended when it looked like he was heading for AAA.

Yeltsin Gudino is hitting .284 in Lansing at age 21. He has a decent eye at the plate but no power so he is unlikely to be top 30 material this off-season.

Josh Palacios was the #29 prospect and he got off to a great start in April. But May was bad and June is average. He is just 22 but he is striking out at a 28% pace. H was injured a lot in 2018 but he needs a big second half.

Prospects whose expectations have stayed the same

Nate Pearson has been injured so its hard to say. He will have fewer innings on his arm and he will be a candidate for the fall league if healthy.

Richard Urena had a lot of questions about his bat coming into 2018 despite being the #6 prospect. This year, when he was not injured he showed some hitting ability in the major leagues. Its a small sample size but he did well at the plate when given the chance.

I am not sure of Logan Warmoth belongs here or in the disappoint category. However I look at him like I do at Riley Adams. The promotion of both of them to Dunedin was a leap after being in Vancouver last season. Adams had a horrible April before getting better in May and setting himself up for a good second half. Warmoth was injured and hasn't had the chance to show that improvement. So I will stay on the fence with both.

TJ Zeuch has pitched well without dominating. Can he improve his strikeout numbers or can he continue to induce weak contact?

Rowdy Tellez is hitting better than he did last year but still not at a major league level. He is still young for AAA so he has time, just needs to keep improving. Similarly Reese McGuire is starting to play better but not yet at a major league level.

Kevin Vicuna is 20 years old in Lansing with a .685 OPS. That is Ok but not great. He is a slick fielder but he needs to get stronger. He is still a bit of a hacker too but the tools are there.

Zach Jackson has 33 K's in 26.2 innings, that's good. he has allowed 11 hits in those 26.2 innings, that's really good. He has walked 23, that's not good. Somewhat like Tim Mayza, who we have seen in Toronto, Jackson needs to improve his command but so far he has the stuff.

Jon Harris could have been in the disappoint category but he was the #27 prospect so expectations were not high. Also he just pitched a six inning no hitter. At this stage his future could go in a number of directions.

Patrick Murphy has a 1.44 WHIP in Dunedin. It was 1.5 for April and May but is 1.22 in June. Has he learned something or is it a blip? His numbers are generally average and he could fall off the top 30 without a strong second half.

Others

Among those outside the top 30, Chavez Young has had an excellent first half. In Buffalo, Dwight Smith Jr., Conor Fisk, Justin Dillon and Justin Shafer have played well. In New Hampshire, Cavan Biggio and Jonathan Davis have hit well, Francisco Rios has been disappointing. At the lower levels, Yennsy Diaz and Zach Logue have pitched well. Samad Taylor and Reggie Pruitt have not lived up to expectations. Taylor has shown some signs of improvement recently but it is not yet a full pattern. Maximo Castillo is young and has been up and down as a starter. The unknown category includes Hagen Danner and Erick Pardinho.

Overall it has been a positive first half of the season for the Blue Jays farm system.

Posted by Gerry on Wednesday, June 13 2018 @ 10:41 PM EDT.

Mid Season Prospect Review | 52 comments | Create New Account

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greenfrog - Wednesday, June 13 2018 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#359900) #

For me the biggest positives of the first half are Vlad, Bo, Jansen, and Smith. Vlad looks like a potential superstar 3B or 1B, Bo looks like a potential star SS or 2B, Jansen looks like a potentially solid or above-average regular, and Smith has gone from fringe prospect to very intriguing prospect at a premium defensive position.

The other big positive for me is the number of major surprises on the farm, including Smith, Biggio, Young, SRF, and (to a lesser extent perhaps) Gurriel.

Also: don't sleep on (dream on?) Noda and Large. They have a long way to go, but I'd say they are doing well and staying relevant for the time being.

We could use some more high-end pitching prospects, though. Let's see what the front office can rustle up at the trade deadline.

bpoz - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#359904) #

Excellent review Gerry.
I am still very intrigued by any hitter that has a close to equal bb/k ratio. We have a few.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#359905) #

I don't know about risers and fallers, but Zeuch is much more interesting to me than Warmoth. They're both 22 year old 1st round picks who have battled injury.

Zeuch is succeeding in a fashion through double A. He is a 6'7" pitcher with evidently good downward plane and hence a high GB rate but insufficient movement or deception to generate much swing and miss. He's got good control and he's averaging 6 innings a start. You can see an innings-eater there, and it's nice to have one or two of those.

Warmoth has struggled. Maybe, like Zeuch, he can overcome the injury.

Glevin - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#359906) #

18/20 Dominican international prospects have apparently tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. Orelvis Martinez is a top Dominican prospect and Jays have been tied to him for a while. Not sure how this changes things but I imagine all verbal contracts for any player caught cheating will be null and void now.

Marc Hulet - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#359909) #

Let's wait and see how the PEDs thing plays out... not exactly a source known for breaking stories of this magnitude. It's not often a smaller paper can scoop a major news organization... Plus, Top 20 according to whom? FanGraphs? MLB.com? Baseball America?

hypobole - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#359918) #

I can't find anything on the internet on this PED thing - what was the source?

Glevin - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#359920) #

Neftali Ruiz of Deportes SIN quoted by Fangraphs. It might not be true, but these Latin American stories are often broken locally.

hypobole - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#359921) #

Thanks Glevin.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#359923) #

I like Travis Sawchik, but today�s Fangraphs article doesn�t exhibit a particularly deep knowledge of the Jays farm system (no mention of Jansen, for example).

Mike Green - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#359925) #

It is weird to mention McGuire and not Jansen, but the presence of Jansen actually supports Sawchik's point, that the Jays should be early sellers.

Glevin - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#359930) #

Sawchik used to work in pitssbudgh hence his knowledge of McGuire. He's not a prospect guy so mentioning Jansen doesn't matter but his point is right on. Jays have a very good system and won't be competing so should rebuild.

SK in NJ - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#359932) #

If the Jays spend the next year and a half trying to get the best package of prospects for players who do not figure to be involved in their 2020-beyond run (Stroman sans extension, Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, Smoak, Solarte, Happ, Donaldson, etc), then it will put them in a much better position to accelerate the rebuild without any substantial down period. That's going to be the key.

I don't even think they need to rebuild. Just maximize the return on their vets. I agree the pieces are in place for a really strong run in 2020-2025 if done properly but they can't half-ass it. Keep stockpiling talent, even if it means trading a player a year early and riling up the casual fan (which I think is overblown anyway since my guess is Toronto fans would be OK with a rebuild). They lost value by keeping Donaldson. Not clear how much value they lost since we don't know what the offers were like in the winter or last trade deadline, but hopefully they learned a lesson from that either way.

I really like the way the system is shaping up. Still work to be done, but it's in a very good spot right now.

Gerry - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#359941) #

Both Rowdy Tellez and Anthony Alford have been removed from todays game in Buffalo.

scottt - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#359942) #

Stroman and Sanchez don't have much value at the moment.
Osuna cannot be traded in the foreseeable future. Maybe not before 2020.
I don't think Smoak would bring much since there's a lot of 1B/DH types out there that are cheaper even if worst.

Pillar is probably at peak value.
Happ will be at peak value just before the deadline if he makes it there. That's when teams will be fighting over him.
Trading him now would be at a discount for fear that he gets hurts or slumps and brings back nothing.
Donaldson needs to have a good productive stretch or they're probably best just offering the QO.
If they missed the boat on Donaldson it's only because he hasn't been healthy since the 2016 playoffs.

I also think they need to trade a catcher, because they can't keep 5 catchers around.
I don't see Martin bringing anything even if they eat salary.
If he's so great at framing that why is the pitching so poor?

Mike Green - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#359943) #

Zeuch has gone 7 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits and 1 walk, with 3 strikeouts and 13 groundouts. He has thrown only 75 pitches, so they'll probably send him out for the 8th.

hypobole - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#359944) #

Seems more trade-ish than injury with AA and Rowdy.

cybercavalier - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#359948) #

Question: Given that the organization sees hitters roster of Buffalo Bisons as developed prospects, should disappointed prospect(s) be sent to New Hamsphire to refit their performance? For example, Jon Berti had struggled at Colorado Triple-A, returned to the Jays and hits .839 OPS for 17AB at New Hamsphire and Anthony Alford's performance has been disappointing. Shall Berti be promoted and Alford demoted ?

hypobole - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#359949) #

They're not going to send Alford down after 143 PA's. Berti is immaterial - he's just organisational filler.

greenfrog - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#359950) #

Not the best night for Jays prospects, but there are some positives:

- 8 shutout innings from Zeuch
- Smith HR
- Hiraldo 2/4 with a double and a walk
- Coupla hits for Warmoth
- Jansen 1/2 with a double and two walks

Gerry - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#359951) #

Alford's back tightened up on him. Tellez was taken out for not running to first on a pop up.

uglyone - Thursday, June 14 2018 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#359952) #

great read Gerry...but I'm a little surprised you seem more enthusiastic for borucki than SRF - for me SRF was a better prospect before last year, and has been better this year....borucki seems to me to have stayed put while SRF has slingshotted back to the top end prospect he was before last year.

also you don't seem enthusiastic about biggio's breakout - are you seeing just a fluke NH power boost from him?

dan gordon - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#359954) #

I think SRF is a slightly better prospect than Borucki, as well. Biggio's OPS at home is .807. On the road, it's 1.160. So it's not a NH effect. He's in a bit of a funk lately, with a June OPS of .565. He's hitting lefties better than righties.

In addition to the strong performers already mentioned, some other pitchers have had very good results this year, like Fisk, Dillon, Shafer, and Bergen. Bouchey coming back from injury. A good pipeline of relief/5th starter prospects is important.

Clemens was a very strong early surprise, but then he quickly was exposed once he got to Dunedin.

Alford has been a disappointment to me, as well as the continued injury problems for Pompey.

ISLAND BOY - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 03:30 AM EDT (#359955) #

" If he's so great at framing then why is the pitching so poor?"

Maybe they aren't throwing where he wants them to. The catcher can only do so much.

Mike Green - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#359956) #

Jansen looks stronger to me. I have no idea how his fielding is progressing, but his hitting is definitely major-league ready. Is there a reason other than the presence of Morales that the club could not run with three catchers, with the three of them getting extra work as right-handed DH?

At this point Jansen is 23 and I'd rather he get the rest of his baseball education from Russell Martin. I know two's company and three's a crowd, but in this case, there is an outlet at DH and backing-up at third base for Martin.

bpoz - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#359957) #

You can always compare Martin to Maile.

Also Osuna is missing, so the pen is not good anymore. In theory.
Happ is good. Sanchez is adjusting to what ever changes he thinks he has to make to avoid the blister issue.

Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#359958) #

I keep trying to figure out the best case for Zeuch and it's a little difficult. Henderson Alvarez's was a similar low strikeout high groundball pitcher, but his change-up was much better and comes from a much different physical profile. Mike Leake is another comparison that fits statistically, but lacks from a size perspective.

uglyone - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#359959) #

I think it's important to note that Zeuch isn't just "good" at inducing groundballs, but "elite". He's 2nd in all of AA right now (minimum 50ip), and his 59.6% is actually a step down from what he's put up before.

and this comes along with another elite batted ball element - he's also in the top-5 for lowest linedrive rate in AA.

hypobole - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#359961) #

Jerry Crasnik at ESPN with a lengthy piece on Vlad, Bo, Craig in NH.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23780902/famous-fathers-slugging-sons-vlad-jr-bichette-biggio

hypobole - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#359962) #

OOps that would be Cavan

Mike Green - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#359963) #

The starting pitchers who have succeeded with very low K and very high GB rates over a significant period in the last two decades would be Chien Ming Wang and Aaron Cook. Several others managed the feat for a few years like Nick Blackburn.

K rates can tick upwards at Zeuch's age. Tom Glavine at 22 had a K rate under 4 in the major leagues. I guess the best example might be Kevin Brown, a 6'4" RHer, who at age 22 was struggling through 3 levels of the minors and a K rate of about 4.5. The following year, he went back to double A, got his K rate up to 6. He got a cup of coffee in the majors that year, and then was up for good with Texas the following year at age 24. His K rates were under 5 his first 3 years in the majors, but he was able to add some significant value as an innings-eater.

bpoz - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#359964) #

Most of baseball knows that pitching for Toronto, TB and Baltimore is the hardest because of Boston and NYY.

H Alvarez and R Halladay did better pitching in the NL East. No DH, NYY and Boston.

I imagine Estrada, Garcia and Happ will be better if out of the AL East.

As our young pitchers come up to the Jays the challenge will be immense.

Mike Green - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#359965) #

John Lott also has a fine article in the Athletic delving into Biggio's change of approach this season. He's pulled a neat trick this year- his fly-ball and pull percentages are up (which is one thing), but also his line-drive rate is up somewhat. He's doing it by driving the ball down (from what I have seen he's good from waist down to knees) in the strike zone.

uglyone - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#359966) #

took a shot at using Gerry's idea of "risers" and "fallers"

Soarers:

2B Biggio (23, AA): 258pa, 17.1b%/26.0k%, .351bip/.286avg, .282iso, 166wrc+
SS Smith (21, A+): 69pa, 5.8b%/26.1k%, .429bip/.339avg, .177iso, 159wrc+
SS Smith (21, A): 204pa, 8.3b%/16.2k%, .397bip/.355avg, .284iso, 185wrc+

Massive spikes for these two - all the way from non-prospects to potentially top-100 prospects.

Risers:

RH R-Foley (22, AAA): 17.1ip, 27.9k%/6.3b%, .412bip, 6.75era, 1.83fip, 2.92xfip
RH R-Foley (22, AA): 44.1ip, 29.2k%/11.2b%, .240bip, 2.03era, 3.38fip, 3.34xfip
3B Guerrero (19, AA): 235pa, 8.5b%/8.9k%, .404bip/.407avg, .260iso, 205wrc+
C Jansen (23, AAA): 204pa, 12.7b%/13.2k%, .348bip/.311avg, .180iso, 163wrc+
2B Gurriel (24, AAA): 98pa, 1.0b%/20.4k%, .314bip/.290avg, .204iso, 123wrc+
OF Young (20, A): 254pa, 8.3b%/20.9k%, .395bip/.314avg, .148iso, 132wrc+
SS Urena (22, AAA): 59pa, 5.1b%/18.6k%, .302bip/.259avg, .130iso, 90wrc+
1B Tellez (23): 216pa, 10.6b%/17.1k%, .295bip/.257avg, .128iso, 108wrc+

Lots of Risers. SRF for me has taken the biggest leap in this group, totally wiping out last year's disaster year and right back on track with his previous top prospect ranking. Vladdy had so little room to rise...but he still managed to by putting up a legendary AA performance. just incredible. Jansen has clearly established that last year was no fluke. Gurriel has recovered from last year's disaster, though still not quiet on track as a great prospect yet imo. Young seems to be having a legit breakout year into good prospect territory. Urena has been banged up but has held his own in his brief stints in MLB and AAA even though he's still young for those levels. It's a nice rebound from last year already imo. Rowdy is at least showing signs of life this year, which is a big step up from last year's disaster.

Steady as She Goes

LH Borucki (24): 70.0ip, 18.5k%/9.3b%, .262bip, 3.60era, 4.18fip, 4.15xfip
SS Bichette (20): 286pa, 9.4b%/16.8k%, .324bip/.280avg, .161iso, 121wrc+
RH Zeuch (22): 51.1ip, 13.0k%/7.3b%, .261bip, 2.81era, 3.93fip, 4.17xfip
2B Taylor (19): 237pa, 10.5b%/19.8k%, .276bip/.233avg, .165iso, 103wrc+
SS Vicuna (20): 269pa, 4.5b%/13.4k%, .323bip/.280avg, .087iso, 93wrc

Most of these guys aren't quite as impressive as last year, but still doing well enough at their age/levels to maintain their status imo.

Fallers

C McGuire (23): 158pa, 10.1b%/18.4k%, .276bip/.237avg, .081iso, 91wrc+
CF Palacios (22): 258pa, 8.5b%/24.8k%, .359bip/.267avg, .078iso, 98wrc+
C Adams (22): 201pa, 10.0b%/22.9k%, .291bip/.230avg, .126iso, 97wrc+

Not disasters for any of these guys yet, but not good enough to sustain last year's impressive bumps up in performance.

Crashers

CF Alford (23): 145pa 8.3b%/29.7k%, .315bip/.212avg, .038iso, 55wrc+
SS Warmoth (22): 179pa, 8.9b%/22.3k%, .319bip/.245avg, .069iso, 88wrc+

Legit disaster years so far with these two. If they can't pick it up in a huge way going forward they'll see their stock tumble a long ways down.

So a couple of huge risers and a couple of huge fallers. But overall the system has many more risers than fallers.

Mike Green - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#359968) #

Zeuch realizes that he needs to work on his change. He needs a strikeout weapon against LHBs; his splits against RHB look sustainable to me at higher levels.

bpoz - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#359969) #

Y Diaz is not on anyone's list yet. But he is having a good season.

uglyone - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#359970) #

yeah bpoz I should probably have stuck him in with the risers too. He's starting to look like a real prospect this year.

Gerry - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#359971) #

I do rate Borucki higher than SRF. SRF could be a better pitcher long term but the risk on him is a lot higher than Borucki. Even though SRF has had some success this year he has been inconsistent and scouting reports suggest he is succeeding without really hitting his spots. That can work in AAA but can get you into trouble in the big leagues.

I know SRF is not the same pitcher as Aaron Sanchez but I link them in that they have great arms but under perform their stuff. And both could eventually end up in the bullpen.

Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#359972) #

I really like the Chien-Ming Wang comparison and after some more looking around Jake Westbrook is another interesting comparison I thought of. If Zeuch can be a 4.00 to 4.30 ERA 180+ inning eater I will take it.

Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#359973) #

I apologies for the double post, but my internet searching also came up with this older article about ground ball pitchers:

https://www.sbnation.com/2013/3/21/4132110/groundball-pitchers-analysis-projecting-injuries

Is the curse of ground ball pitchers be what is catching up to Marcus Stroman?

uglyone - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#359974) #

I think people are making too much of what is so far just a small blip in performance by Stroman.

as SP

2014: 20gs, 85era-, 73fip-, 84xfip-
2015: 4gs, 41era-, 87fip-, 83xfip-
2016: 32g, 103era-, 86fip-, 80xfip-
2017: 33gs, 70era-, 88fip-, 82xfip-
2018: 7gs, 184era-, 109fip-, 95xfip-
Career: 96gs, 90era-, 86fip-, 82xfip-

As expected, Stroman's era has been much more volatile in his career than his fips, but his fips have been very steady his whole career. And it even seems he does have a tendency to slightly underachieve his fips - and this might be the whole height thing, especially in terms of home runs.

But his fips have been very steady his whole career, and very good, too.

His 7 starts this year have been disastrous, though even though the fips are worse than usual they're still average, not awful. But i think at this point, since he missed all spring and most of the season to a shoulder issue, that we have a pretty good explanation for this poor (small) sample this year.

uglyone - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#359975) #

"I know SRF is not the same pitcher as Aaron Sanchez but I link them in that they have great arms but under perform their stuff."

But aside from last year, Gerry, are we really sure SRF has underperformed?

2018 (22, AA/AAA): 12gs, 28.8k%, 9.7b%, .298babip, 3.36era, 2.94fip, 3.26xfip
2017 (21, AA): 27gs, 20.7k%, 9.0b%, .318babip, 5.09era, 4.88fip, 4.20xfip
2016 (20, A/A+): 21gs, 28.8k%, 8.4b%, .266babip, 2.81era, 2.60fip, 2.70xfip
2015 (19, A/A+): 25gs, 28.3k%, 15.2b%, .328babip, 4.22era, 3.57fip, 3.61xfip
2014 (18, Rk): 6gs, 25.5k%, 10.2b%, .339babip, 4.76era, 2.76fip, 3.09xfip

For his age and levels, his performance has ranged from good to great in all years other than last year, where for whatever reason he saw a dramatic drop in strikeouts. But all his numbers this year seem right on track with the very good numbers he was putting up before to me.

Shoeless Joe - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#359976) #

I'm not worried about Stroman's performance, but does his extreme ground ball tendencies and heavy use of his sinking fastball make him less durable? Is his shoulder injury just the start of what has happened to other ground ball pitchers such as Brandon Webb?

dan gordon - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#359978) #

There are so many stats around, I guess you can always find a few that confirm your existing opinion. Maybe some don't indicate a deterioration in Stroman, but I certainly see a few that are showing a pretty steady decline since his rookie year. Starting in 2014, here is his FIP - 2.84, 3.54, 3.71, 3.90, 4.56; K:BB ratio - 3.96, 3.00, 3.07, 2.65, 1.78; HR/9 - 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 0.9, 1.2.

The Jays hold his rights for 2 more season. I think there is enough uncertainty about him that a potential longer term contract would have to wait until at least after the 2019 season, to see if he can bounce back.

Parker - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#359980) #

There are so many stats around, I guess you can always find a few that confirm your existing opinion.

Now THERE is "le mot juste" if I ever saw it.

uglyone - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#359981) #

hey Parkie do you find it as funny as I do that you try to both mock the same stats I use every single time AND then accuse me of picking and choosing stats to suit my argument too?

uglyone - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#359982) #

Dan, I always like to use league adjusted stats like fip- or wrc+ instead of the raw numbers, because it takes into account league trends that probably aren't under the pitcher's control.

league FIP last 5yrs:

3.74
3.96
4.19
4.36
4.05 (small sample)

it's all of baseball that has seen offense increase, not just stroman.

Parker - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#359983) #

hey Parkie do you find it as funny as I do that you try to both mock the same stats I use every single time AND then accuse me of picking and choosing stats to suit my argument too?

Probably not.

For the stats you use every single time, the issue is usually one of sample size.

Or weighting/relevance, when it comes to minor league stats. As others have told you in the past, there is a lot more to prospect valuation than ranking the players according to their minor league numbers.

I don't really think it's funny at all, actually, because you clearly put a lot of time and effort into your analyses.

uglyone - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#359984) #

so it's the same stats every time, but you still try to take shots at me for apparently picking and choosing stats to suit my argument.

I sure find it funny. but I can see why you don't.

hypobole - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#359985) #

Deck McGuire claimed by the Rangers.

Parker - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#359986) #

so it's the same stats every time, but you still try to take shots at me for apparently picking and choosing stats to suit my argument.

Sure.

"Player X is hitting well in the last week/four games/25 AB, and this is obviously significant because I think it's worth crunching the numbers and telling people how he's better than everyone thinks. At least if he plays for the Blue Jays. If he plays for their competition, it's just a random hot streak that should be ignored."

or

"Player X is a 3 WAR asset for the Blue Jays because he did that in one season out of the last three. He was injured or playing injured for the other two, and for some reason even though the player is in his mid-30's and has a long history of injuries, I see no reason not to pencil him in for more 3 WAR seasons going forward. Player X on a different team is old and injury-prone and is probably done."

or

"I wish the penny-pinching Jays would've signed former Blue Jay Player X as a free agent because I'm only going to use his stats in the first year of his contract to assess how valuable he's going to be over the duration of the contract."

or

"The rest of the baseball world is wrong and I'm right when I say that Prospect X for the Jays is a better prospect than Prospect Y for some other team because Player X put up better minor league numbers last year."

Hmm, on second thought, this IS pretty funny.

lexomatic - Friday, June 15 2018 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#359987) #

Seriously are you guys 5? Please take your argument elsewhere it's tiresome.

uglyone - Saturday, June 16 2018 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#359999) #

Parkie, feel free to provide an example of me saying any of those things.

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