Samad Taylor is quietly having a nice season - an increased walk rate, more extra-base hits, and a respectable strikeout rate. He's even stealing a few more bases. His overall line is depressed by a low babip this year, but there's a lot to like in what he's been able to do as a 19-year-old in full-season ball.

Jon Heyman is reporting that Groshans has signed with the Jays. There is also a separate report that 15th round pick Troy Watson will sign for $100,000.

Groshans and Kloffenstein both signed as per MLB Trade Rumors.

I wondered how Griffin Conine did in Duke's last game.  Here's the answer: 2-3 including a double, a walk, a HBP and no strikeouts.  Solid. 

Dang.  Link screwed up but this should work - https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/6/8/17441150/2018-blue-jays-mlb-draft-signing-table

Jim Callis @jimcallisMLB
4m
1st-rder Jordan Groshans signs w/@BlueJays for $3.4 million (pick 12 value = $4,200,900). Texas HS SS, some of best power in @MLBDraft, promising hitter too, likely moves to 3B & can be good defender there. Kansas recruit.

so where do people think the new draftees rank in our system?

The Jays save $800k on Groshans and go overslot by $1M on Kloffenstein.

They could save $500k on their two senior signs. but they still need to find more.

This was from twitter last night:

Robert Murray
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Verified account

@RobertMurrayFRS
15h15 hours ago
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Source: #BlueJays sign 15th round pick RHP Troy Watson for $100K. Strong deal for a player who missed half of his last season.

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith
1m
#BlueJays announced that they have signed nine of their top 10 draft selections, 26 picks in total


I think Conine is the 1 of 10 not signed yet.

Yep, Conine is the only one of the top 15 not signed yet.

26 guys inked in total.

I see that, but I like Kloff enough that I start to hesitate when it gets to names like Borucki, Gurriel, Biggio, Young, Warmoth.

My first take is that I think Kloff and Groshans are borderline top-10 but you might be right that they're not.

The FG boys gave both the draft pick 45 grades, and a bit on the lower end.

Of our top 8 (45 or better), only Alford and Warmoth have regressed, Alford from 55 to maybe 50, Warmoth from 45 to mid-low 40. SRF and Lourdes jump to 45 from 40. I'd add Smith and Young to the 45's although I don't know if the FG boys would. I'm less bullish on Biggio, Romano, Taylor, wouldn't bump them ahead of the new kids yet, nor anyone else.

So that puts them around 12-13.

System just getting stronger and deeper.

hypobole, I generally agree with all of that. I do think people are underestimating Taylor. For context, he is a full three years younger than Warmoth and only 16 months older than this year's first round pick. Taylor isn't blowing the doors off, but he's holding his own in Lansing. There is no chance that any of the high HS picks from this draft are holding their own in Lansing next year and very little chance of that the year after. Taylor would be ahead of this year's picks for me and would definitely be ahead of (frankly by quite a bit) Warmoth for me.

I agree generally with that list, but I'd swap Biggio with Chavez Young in the group of 45s.

Old news !!!!! I finally realized that I should check the standings for the Lugnuts. The are in the playoffs.

I want to celebrate. Cheers!!!!!!

I also just wanted to say it hasn't been 24 hrs since Connine finished his NCAA career, so thats probably why he hasn't signed yet.

Well, they went overslot by $1.8 million on Kloffenstein, while saving only $800,000 on Groshans, so there's still $1 million to find. They may need to go underslot on Conine. Would be nice to know what they spent on the other guys in the top 10. As Gerry says, they could have found a chunk of it on the 3 seniors, possibly $600,000 or so. I imagine they have a pretty good idea of what Conine is after, and probably will be able to get him. If so, it looks like a pretty good draft result.

Conine is a protected pick. How much leverage does he have? He is not a HS pick. Also paying a financial penalty is not a problem for this FO. IMO.

Bichette, Noda, and Taylor have homered so far tonight. Lots to like on the farm this spring.

Jon Harris pitched six no hit innings tonight and was pulled on 89 pitches. Danny Young came on in relief and gave up a double to the second hitter.

Jon Harris has teased so much over years with encouraging short stretches that I have whiplash - what's encouraging is that he did it against a team with a winning record that hit him hard his last start and in his last 3 starts - 18 innings 20K/3BB - here's hoping he's turned a corner.

I liked that Bo Bichette hit his homer against one of the better pitching prospects in the minors and that he's had a nice run without Vlad in the lineup.

If Kevin Smith keeps hitting, then it will be interesting to see what happens when Logan Warmoth returns - don't want to see Smith playing 3B too often - wonder if Bo moves to AAA and Smith to AA - don't think the jays would send Warmoth to Lansing.

Lots, indeed. McGuire had another multi-hit game, and homered. Tellez was 3 for 4 with a HR. Those 2 are really heating up in AAA. Bichette's HR pushes his OPS back up over .800, after bottoming out at .687 on May 23rd. Brayden Bouchey had another good relief appearance. Harris keeps teasing with the occasional good game amidst a sea of mediocrity.


In the lower minors, Patrick Murphy pitched his 5th decent game in a row, with 7 K's, only 1 walk and 1 run allowed in 7 innings. He was a 3rd round pick in 2013, but didn't really start his pro career until 2016 due to injuries. Doing a pretty good job in Dunedin, and maybe a candidate for NH before year end. Kevin Smith had 2 more hits. Taylor's HR was his 5th and raised his OPS to .715. Noda is the hottest hitter in the system, hitting .400 over his last 10 games with 6 HR's and 6 walks. Miguel Hiraldo had a single, double and a walk. Gulf Coast League for Miguel sometime this year?

The first and third picks are pretty clearly behind anybody who is a good prospect

That may be clear to you, it's certainly not to me.

The minor league shortstop depth in quality and quantity the Jays have is truly remarkable. Gurriel, Urena, Bichette, Smith, Warmoth, Vicuna, Gudino, De Los Santos, Hiraldo, Leonardo Jimenez, Groshans, Barger. Would be interesting to fast forward 20 years and see how much mlb talent this crop yields.

Interesting lists eh?  Halladay as the top Jay prospect was dead on but many guys who never were close to All-Star level, let along HOF level were ranked higher those years.  Just one HOF'er as #1 overall with another who would be if not for PED's.  1996 the Jays also had Chris Carpenter and  Shannon Stewart ranked and Halladay was in the system then.  Marty Janzen had tons of hype but no substance.  Imagine how excited we'd be for 3 in the top 10 like 1994 although we have 2 right now in Vlad and Bo.  Imagine if they ended up like Gonzo and Delgado - that'd be a solid return but far below what many dream of now.

Random stuff.

If 29th overall pick from 2015 Jon Harris becomes the same as 29th overall pick from 2013 Ryne Stanek, i.e. effective middle reliever, would you be pleased? At this point, I would.

Biggio, non-prospect promoted aggressively, rakes for 2 months in AA while getting mixed reviews for 2nd base defence. Bat cools off so far in June (.200/.341/.257). Is he a better prospect than Groshans, HS kid who hasn't played a lick of pro ball yet? Pure opinion.

Nigel is correct about Taylor holding his own at a young age in A ball, but almost all 1st round picks #10 to #41 from 2 years ago are as well, with more seeming over than under Taylor's performance, so that should be the baseline for Groshans. That said, maybe I am underselling Taylor a bit. 2 televised series at the end of June/early July to watch Taylor in action.

Starting Friday all Lugnut home games on milb.tv

https://www.milb.com/lansing/news/starting-friday-lugnuts-baseball-on-milbtv/c-280806594

Nigel I like your take on Taylor for sure. He's only a year older than Groshans but is more than holding his own in Lansing. A bit too much swing and miss in his game but he can hit and has power...and this year he's improved in terms of patience and drawing walks. And while his position is uncomfirmed here seems to be enough physical talent for there to be plenty of defensive upside for him at a bunch of different positions.

But I think we should stop comparing prospects to Warmoth - everybody looks like a good prospect compared to what Warmoth is doing so far. (To be fair Warmoth could easily improve, but so far not so good).


and Hypo I like your idea of trying to slot the prospects in on that scouting grade scale. But man is it tough. I might slot them in like this:

70 - Vlad
65 - Bo
60 -
55 - Jansen
50 - Pearson, Alford, SRF

Yeah I think SRF has snuck back up there. I might even slot him ahead of Alford.

then there's a whole mess of guys who are either 45s (or close to it).

Low Upside/near MLB ready 45s: Borucki, Zeuch, (Biggio, Gurriel, Urena, McGuire)
High Upside/longterm prospect 45s: Smith, Kloffenstein, Groshans, (Young, Taylor, Pardinho, Hiraldo)

Really tough/fun to try and sort out.

Though now that I look at it, I may have sorted it out already in my head using those brackets - I guess I'm leaning towards the Borucki, Smith, Kloffenstein, and Groshans as the 5 clear 45s at this point.

And Smith might be the top guy in that group for me already.



also, Hypo, yeah I'd be super pleased if Harris turned into a good reliever... but I'm not hopeful.

I don't see Biggio as low upside.  He's now had 240 PAs in the Eastern League and (even after his current slump) he's one of the top 5 hitters in the league as a 23 year old second baseman.  He has hit well enough that (if he can sustain it) he would be a good corner outfielder even if his fielding at second base was a problem.  The issue to my mind with him is not upside, but risk.  What if the hitting tear he was on was just a blip? In a way, he's like Alford- a prospect who has had some success in the high minors at age 23 and could still be a very good major league player- but there is a lot of risk attached. 

Mike, maybe the Jays positional player development group is better than previously? Definitely on the hitting side, try to find anything praiseworthy from years past. And it's a totally different group that drafted Groshans than kept picking toolsy kids who couldn't hit.

Like I said, the FG guys, who obviously aren't right all the time but who I trust more than other evaluators, gave Groshans a 45 FV. Which fits in around 12-13.

Mike - Biggio is definitely the toughest to get a handle on at this point. I mean I look at it again just after posting and I think Biggio maybe slots in right behind smith and just ahead of Borucki, Zeuch, Kloff, and Groshans. I guess I slotted him in as low upside just because a) he's not young and b) there is so little leeway for him defensively and c) while I love what he's done this year I still have to assume some regression there for now. But then again he's a) not old, b) potentially good enough to be a middle infielder, c) he's just destroying it this year. He's a great prospect to debate right now and I'm not sure where I stand there yet.


On another note:

Rowdy Tellez is now at 115wrc+ at an age appropriate 23 in AAA.

That's still not near good enough to get excited about for a 1B/DH, but that is finally at the very least a "good" AAA hitting line.

The thing I'm keeping an eye on is his power - or lack thereof. IMO that .133iso is nowhere near good enough. That has to get up over .200 for him to be interesting again.

But that's why I'm encouraged by his more recent line over about half his season's worth of games:

Last 25gms: 9.1b%, 16.2k%, .324babip, .294avg, .200iso, 144wrc+

If he can get his season line looking closer to that by the end of the year, then he's back to being a legit prospect again imo.

"in Biggio's case as a corner outfielder with power, some speed, pretty good defence".

I didn't jump on it the first time, but how is Biggio going to be a pretty good defensive outfielder? I know it's possible, heck it's possible Groshans could become the next Josh Donaldson, but far more likely Groshans won't and Biggio's worse than Teoscar trying to play RF.

I think Groshans' starting point is still as SS, with athleticism and arm, which gives him all sorts of backup defensive options to fall to. (and I'm not convinced that people aren't calling him a 3B already just due to being 6'4"). Biggio, starting off as a 2B (even in High School), probably has less leeway defensively.

Just want to say what a pleasure it is to have Grichuk in RF.

It has been a long, long time when we've seen this kind of defense from a corner OF spot.

Starting Friday all Lugnut home games on milb.tv

Thanks, mendocino - great news

Interesting discussion all. Hypobole - I have no problem with the possibility that Groshans could be holding his own in Lansing in two years - its definitely possible. However, I think comparing him to most people drafted in the 10-14 spots isn't really logical in this case. He was really a 25-40th overall kind of pick, overdrafted to get a package deal done. I think his most likely path involves me watching him in Vancouver for the 2020 season. As to Biggio, the problem is that his performance this year is so completely and totally out of whack with his prior performance that you have to have significant skepticism about it. 2018 doesn't represent a logical progression for him, its a transformation. Tansformations happen, just not all that often.

Nigel, I wrote picks 10-41 not 10-14.

Here's the 1st round last year

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=1&year_ID=2017&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

Apologies

maybe the Jays positional player development group is better than previously?

Dunno Hypo, how is it possible that this would reveal itself in three years, especially given that the new regime is primarily drafting position players, whereas the previous regime was primarily drafting pitchers? 

I continue to reject the idea that the Jays were bad at developing position players - too simplistic in my book.  Although I do remain optimistic that increased emphasis on development is a good thing, and we may see marginal improvements as a result in the next few years. 

And I fully acknowledge that there are a bunch of posters round here who have a better understanding of the nuts and bolts of projecting prospects than I do.  That said, I'm with Nigel on being skeptical of Biggio.  top ten after the first two seasons of his career being mediocre ... what differentiates him from a guy like Noda, who also has had crazy hot streaks, but has never gotten the prospect love?   Biggio is the better prospect obviously, I'm just curious what you guys think?

I find it interesting that the Jays picked in the draft a number of players who are less than 6 feet.I know a couple were late picks but it suggests to me that they are very open-minded when scouting players.

"I continue to reject the idea that the Jays were bad at developing position players - too simplistic in my book."

Maybe you should add Occam's Razor to your book.

You may notice I phrased my comment as a question, because I don't know enough to be definitive. Whereas your answer was definitive, despite the fact you don't know enough either to be definitive.

Mike listed a group of failed position players we've drafted early, but there plenty more. How many everyday position players have we produced since Aaron Hill? Pillar and ....

I remember reading about the Giants drafting Belt in the 5th round. Their PD guys had already planned swing changes for him. Brandon Crawford 4th round . Matt Duffy, who we just saw in Tampa 18th round. Joe Panic late 1st round.

Now plenty of their draft picks have failed as well, just like every other team. And maybe we were drafting players who were bound to fail, or only partially succeed, no matter what PD did. But I would argue what's simplistic is to simply reject a position player PD issue over the years.

probably just a random fluke that the jays have been able to draft and develop many pitchers but few hitters. just like it's fluke that the red Sox have done the reverse.

In light of this conversation, there was a question in today's FG prospect chat as to whether the possibility of a change to a poor swing is built into their FV projections.

He gave a 3 part answer, with this as #3:

" 3. Project on Diaz’s swing changing if he’s with an org we feel confident knows how to make these changes (40 or 50 depending on org)"

Hypo, Occam's razor could indeed be correct.  If you read my answer as definitive, I've misspoken - I don't claim to 'know' that we did fine developing position players, and there really haven't been success stories since Hill and Pillar.  I just find that idea that we obviously were doing poorly in development floating around on the internet a lot and I don't buy that idea - not your question and clearly nuanced / thoughtful take on the issue.  we did set out to draft a lot more pitchers than hitters until the new FO arrived, and some of our hitters drafted by AA have been riddled with bad injury luck - which could be related to development, undoubtedly, but Occam's razor would likely argue for bad luck.  and there are several Matt Dean's who just never seemed to improve.
I don't know the amount of turnover in the development rank and file - Obviously Shapiro and co brought in their own leadership, but I assume that many of the trainers, coaches and instructors are the same ones working with our burgeoning crop of young position players.  Regardless, I agree with you that we really can't be definitive with the behind the scenes stuff, although I am optimistic that the Jays are being smart prioritizing development.  Now if only we could get these minor league kids more pay so they could avoid fast food and offseason jobs ....

There has been a lot of turnover. You were right, it's only been a few years, and maybe Vlad (who probably would have succeeded anywhere), Bo, Smith, Biggio, Young are making the new group seem better than they are.

And as for treatment of minor leaguers one of the FG guys recently said the Jays are OK, a few other teams not bad and the rest are worse.

vlad and bo certainly help!  just to add more grist to the mill, the DSL Jays are raking so far ... Rainer Nunez homered today, giving the team 5 HRs so far, which I believe you noted recently was their TOTAL last year.  we could be putting Hiraldo at the end of your list with Biggio and Young by the end of the season.  It would be hard to have a more successful pro debut than he's having -.391 / .451 / . 696 in 46 ABs.  And at the ripe old age of 17. 

jerjapan noticed today the 4 or 5 top hitters on our DSL team are all 17 yr olds. Last year they were 18/19 year olds.

hypo - note that fangraphs kiley blamed the jays for hoffman not performing (For the same bs reason Law shat on sanchez) and yet he didn't see any improvement after being traded.

I.e. imo take that kind of grading with healthy dose of salt.

uo - another beauty from you, incorporating ad hominem/strawman devices and misrepresentation.

You're also taking what K McD said out of context, because you didn't seem to actually read his full response on the FG website.

Kiley and KLaw give opinions. Yup, they're wrong sometimes, but anyone who knows anything about baseball knows everybody who gives opinions is wrong sometimes. Even the best people in the best orgs.

What does pitching have to do with batters swing changes? Nothing actually, other than attempting to further your argument.

Kiley "blamed" the Jays? Harsh word, blamed. Here is another more neutral interpretation of what Kiley said

"Kiley McDaniel of Fangrapsh suggests that perhaps Toronto is attempting to lower the risk of re-injury for Hoffman by forcing him to "dial down his curveball" and put less effort in his delivery. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I don’t know if I agree with taking a potential frontline starter in Hoffman and morphing him into a No. 3 or No. 4. That’s essentially what he’s become at this point. Two things could be happening here. Either Toronto is forcing Hoffman to neglect his athleticism and true talent in favor of a safe recovery, or he is just struggling to consistently put away A-ball hitters, as the low strikeout and high hit totals show. I think it is a combination of both the front office erring on the side of caution and Hoffman’s diminished abilities."

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/17/8990695/should-we-be-concerned-about-blue-jays-prospect-jeff-hoffman

The chat response I posted wasn't even Kiley, it was Eric.

For anyone interested here's the link, the question was asked at 2:26 then comes the full response.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-6-14/