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Cause it ain't.



I'm usually not one to abandon hope on June 1st but ugghhhhh, I find myself abandoning hope like a itchy footed bandwagoner with this team. It's not just that they're losing, but they're losing without any hope of putting up a fight. They'll eventually play better than they are now, but.... ..... ....yeah.

You can bad mouth the front office all you like on their failings (and there are more than a few) but really, who really saw all of these pizza pockets simultaneously blowing up in their faces? Your MVP caliber third baseman is struggling and constantly hurt, plummeting his trade value; your young ace right-hander has shoulder problems and pitched horribly before eventually giving to the DL; your other potential ace righthander suffers a weird identity crisis and struggles to cling to anything that consistently works. Plus your supposed everyday right-fielder posts an unplayably bad April, the second baseman you hope will finally stay healthy and be a star is even worse than that lousy guy, and then your star reliever does something that is now up to the courts to decide, never anything resembling good look within any context.

Let's accept that 2018 has been a goddamn disaster so far, in nearly every conceivable way.

Which players on this team have exceeded expectations? Luke Maile? Teoscar Hernandez's first three weeks? Yangervis is a very nice utility player to have around, but expecting him to be a key offensive cog in a lineup everyday is damn sad. J.A Happ is still doing his thing, which in this season feels like a damn godsend because every other starter has made me long for the days of Steve Parris (not Joey Hamilton, because that's too far damnit.)

How about the bullpen? Great. The team isn't winning games. Who cares. Seven games under .500, I'm more interested if some desperate team gives up a potentially useful player for Seunghwan Oh than if this is a real strength of the team.

I'm sorry, but I don't think this is gonna work out for the Bluebirds this year. I'm more optimistic about the playoff chances of the Reds frankly, because their starting pitching is legitimately as bad or just a bit worse, but they have three elite hitters currently (Gennett, Votto, Suarez) and I don't see anybody on this Jays team getting that hot anytime soon. 14 games back of 1st place isn't that much different than 16. Or ten or twelve games back of a wildcard spot. It's a long season and every team is theoretically capable of going on a run, but I'm frankly done with this. I'll watch casually, I'll root and make snide remarks accordingly. But this team doesn't have it. They rolled the dice luckily in April but luck punched them to the curb real hard in May. They're BAD. And Aledmys Diaz, or Randal Grichuk, or Steve Pearce (if he still lives) will not swing the pendulum the other way.

And man this sucks... I really wanted Curtis Granderson to be a part of a good Blue Jays team. Now it's likely just a weird and relatively short stop within a very nice major league career. It's one thing to be bad but interesting, it's another to be disappointing and also completely uninteresting. I think Atkins made a lot of good moves this winter with good, intelligent intentions. But nothing worked. That's baseball. Whatever. I'm willing to give him another chance or two or three.

Anyways, this is fun right? Please, in the eternal words of Principal Seymour Skinner: Prove me wrong Jays! Prove me wrong. And hurry up already.

This Isn't Good For Anyone | 118 comments | Create New Account
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ISLAND BOY - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 03:34 AM EDT (#358960) #
You have put perfectly what all Jays fans are feeling right now,Eephus. How quickly we have descended from our two playoff contending years. The problem was that it was done with mostly older position players. We had no young, position star players contributing, or even close, at that point, in the minors. Our only good young players, the pitchers, have regressed. This team is just not interesting to watch now.
hypobole - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 06:30 AM EDT (#358962) #
Kinda shows how far this team has fallen when multitudinous problems are mentioned without the word Kendrys being used once.
scottt - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 06:45 AM EDT (#358963) #
To me, it's more like nothing Gibbons does work.

Hernandez went 3 for 5. Smoak walked twice. In the middle of that, Solarte went 0 for 5.
Morales had 1 hit, 1 walk and an RBI on only 2 credited plate appearances.
Pillar 0 for 4.
Diaz and Travis, a hit and a walk each. Martin a hit also. Grichuk was lifted early for Granderson who went 0-2.

Garcia walked nobody and the balls were not hit hard. I couldn't tell where the defense played, but it's worth noting that the Tigers have a good lineup against lefties. Overall, it looked a lot like a bad Stroman outing.

At least Biagini was able to go 3 innings.



scottt - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 06:47 AM EDT (#358964) #
Kendrys Morales hit .500 with a walk and an RBI yesterday. Better?
uglyone - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#358965) #
Donaldson, Stroman, Osuna - this team could never be good without these 3 being impact players. The roster has good depth, but not much else in the way of impact talent.

Nothing bandwagonny about seeing that they're toast with all 3 of these guys complete nonfactors, I don't think.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#358966) #
The one solace I take from this season is that we’ve seen some potential emerging stars or regulars on the farm: Vlad, Bichette, Jansen, Biggio, Smith, Young, Vicuna, to name a few. We’ve had much, much worse seasons in the minors before. So at least there is hope for the future.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#358968) #
Add Orelvis, a #12 pick this year, a high pick next year (plus possible sandwich pick for Donaldson), plus a trade or two at the deadline this year, and there is potential to keep building a strong farm system to fuel future success.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#358970) #
It's an old cliche in sports that your best players have to be your best players. If they aren't, you probably aren't going to win.

Arguably the Jays four best/most important players are Stroman, Sanchez, Donaldson, Osuna. They've all either been hurt and ineffective or on leave indefinitely.

Mike Green - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#358973) #
Obviously the club is playing very poorly.  I don't take it quite the same way though.  I always figured that this was likely to be a transitional year, and the real question was how they managed the transition.

I am hoping that this trough will lead to some positive changes.  Gibbons should be gone- he has done a decent job this year but he's not the right guy to lead the club into the future.  What they need is someone with creativity, intelligence and attention to detail.  Most likely it'll be a younger person.  I wonder if the trough will also lead to one of the currently struggling players ending up here longer than expected.  I wouldn't mind if Donaldson was signed up for a few years to share the 3B/DH roles with Guerrero Jr., and he might do as well financially here as anywhere else.  Stroman will, I think, bounce back and I am still hopeful that he can be a part of the club that we'll see in a few years.
lexomatic - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#358974) #
Nothing (in relation to sports) is more demoralizing than watching a team that's given up. It makes a team unwatchable. A scrappy underdog, young and hungry players, etc. are more watchable even if they aren't any more successful. There's been so many health, conduct, and effectiveness issues.
I'd like the team to take the opportunity to review if there's any systemic issues (field, training, training staff) that have contributed to some of this to make sure it's not just the current roster composition and bad luck. .
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#358975) #
"Gibbons should be gone- he has done a decent job this year but he's not the right guy to lead the club into the future. What they need is someone with creativity, intelligence and attention to detail. Most likely it'll be a younger person."

So what you're saying is...if you can't pry Kevin Cash out of TB then don't make a managerial change. I agree Gibby isn't the best on paper. What most people fail to consider is what the alternatives are. Once you do that you quickly realize

1) that he is one of the best in the league relative to the others and

2) It's a real fine line between finding a new person with zero managerial experience who will demonstrate that they have 'creativity, intelligence and attention to detail,' as you say and the next John Farrell/Gabe Kapler/Callaway. A very fine line.

How many managers in baseball are creative and smart AND young? Is Kevin Cash what you're talking about or is it the owner and general manager who are the smart one's pulling the strings? It's funny that Dave Hickey has left TB yet the pitching is still ridiculous.

Sometimes its the organization that deserves credit (or blame).



Also, Vlad will be up by July 8th vs NYY
hypobole - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#358976) #
Put me down as agreeing with you, Mike on the managerial change.

On the other hand, next year will still be transitional (AKA we're gonna be bad) and really don't see any reason to be bringing Donaldson back, unless it's a qualifying offer acceptance situation.


PeterG - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#358977) #
Agree hypobole

And Vlad will not be up in July.
uglyone - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#358978) #
Gibbons firing is inevitable and I won't be upset about it.. but Mike I'm wondering how more new school you're hoping to find. We have a manager with no attachment to old school lineup construction, who platoons often, who never bunts, who shifts aggressively, who mixes and matches his fungible rp freely...a guy who just played his 35yr old C at SS.


Heck, I even think he's still youngish by manager standards.
Vulg - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#358981) #
The Gibby decision is kind of irrelevant to me, as a new Manager won't move the needle in the short or even medium term.

The more disappointing decision was a commitment to remain in No Man's Land in the offseason. It's something I watched the Leafs do for decades before MLSE lucked into Tim Leiweke and consequently, Shanahan.

More specifically, I'm disappointed the FO didn't have the intestinal fortitude to trade Donaldson at peak value. The rest of the season is pretty much window dressing and playing out how most figured - not quite good enough to hang with the Yanks, Sox, Astros, or Angels/Mariners (i.e. have to beat one of those teams to "sneak" into the 2nd WC) but ok enough to beat on the weaker teams ... sometimes.

Despite Kendrys and a couple of other moves, I actually think the FO has done alright with the transactions they've made. I'm hopeful that when the time comes to commit to the window of opportunity that Vladdy/Bo/Biggio et. all present, every roster move is made with an eye towards maximizing that wave of talent, which roughly correlates to when the team will start getting out from under some of its bad contracts.

SK in NJ - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#358982) #
2019 will definitely be a transition (bad) year, and I'm convinced it will still be an "old" team next season, so having Gibbons around for 2019 wouldn't be terrible. However after a second straight awful season a manager change is likely. My guess is the starting infield to start 2019 will be Solarte, Tulo, Travis, and Smoak left to right, with Morales at DH and Martin at catcher. I don't think they will trade Pillar until Alford is ready, and he doesn't look close to it at the moment, so the OF will probably be Hernandez, Pillar, and Grichuk. So worst case you can keep Gibby until mid-2019. If the plan is to go full steam ahead with youth in 2020, then having a new manager in place for that is definitely required.

I don't think this team will be really young until 2020. That is when we will probably see the first full seasons out of many of the top prospects currently in the system (Vlad, Bo, Jansen, etc). They might, and probably will, be called up some time in 2019, but 2020 will be the year that they start the season in the bigs and never look back.

I think Gibbons did about as well as he could, and now that they will be transitioning into a new core in a year and a half (or sooner), it might be time to bring in some fresh blood, not only at manager but also the coaching spots.
uglyone - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#358984) #
For the record, they could be a very young team right now if they wanted to, without even rushing anyone.

CF Pillar 29
RF Grichuk 26
LF Pompey 25
3B Gurriel 24
SS Diaz 27
2B Travis 27
1B Guerrero 19
C Jansen 23
DH Hernandez 25


SP Stroman 27
SP Sanchez 25
SP Borucki 24
SP SRF 22
uglyone - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#358985) #
Actually take out the oldest guy there (pillar) and swap in Smith jr. to get even younger.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#358986) #
You guys thinking Vlad won't be here until 2019 are crazy. Super 2 cutoff is in next 10 days and you will see lots of prospects coming up across MLB.

ESPN wouldn't do a Blue Jays game on a national Sunday broadcast out of the blue if they didn't think there would be a story like Vlad to go with it. They probably already have assurance from Shapiro that Vlad will be up by then.
Magpie - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#358987) #
the next John Farrell/Gabe Kapler/Callaway.

Kapler's Phillies are 31-24, 2 games off the division lead and half a game behind the Cubs for the second Wild Card. He might be doing something right.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#358988) #
Please read thread and message in context of discussion. Would you describe kapley as creative, intelligent and having attention to detail? Mike Green never advocated signing a manager based on win percentage.
Magpie - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#358989) #
Would you describe kapley as creative, intelligent and having attention to detail?

I don't know who kapley might be, but we haven't seen anything close to enough of Gabe Kapler the manager to be able to say anything whatsoever about what he brings to a team. We do know is that a team that lost 90 games last season is playing a whole lot better this year, and it's extremely unlikely that they're doing it in spite of the manager.
hypobole - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#358990) #
Dunning-Kruger strikes again.
Parker - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#358991) #
I don't know if it's worth giving out much credit to Gibbons for his years and years of MLB management experience, when if not for the Jays, he'd have none.

Maybe the Jays see something in him that no other organization does. If so, and if true, then oh my God how bad a team is this that they can't do any better on the field despite John Gibbons' steely-eyed leadership?
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#358992) #
Yeah, Phillies must be playing better because of their new manager who's already cost them 2 games. Wouldn't be the millions in spending they did this off season or the farm developing from years of tanking. And they're definitely not playing better because of weaker division teams. Nope, it must be because of their manager who's creative and intelligent and gaining an edge. Please.
scottt - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#358993) #
Baltimore tried to trade Machado at peak value and didn't get enough to bother.
The pirates traded their ace for a relatively weak return.
Donaldson's peak value was at the trade deadline last year or even earlier when attendance was also at peak.

The bad contracts are not blocking signings, they're only blocking promotions.
I'm really not sure where the pitching is heading now.


Magpie - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#358994) #
the millions in spending they did this off season

Well....

2017 payroll - $86,276,000
2018 payroll - $83,411,333

But for sure, taking the money they spent on Jeremy Hellickson and Clay Buchholz and giving it all to Jake Arrieta was definitely a smarter use of the same resources.
christaylor - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#358995) #
A team with its top position player out and 4 under-performing SP isn't going to be fun to watch. Film at 11.

Vlad won't be called up for good until May 2019. Maybe a September call-up. The conspiracy theory of a call-up based on ESPN's "muscle" is bizarre. ESPN has no leverage. Those monies have been paid. MLB, let alone the Jays, owes them nothing and Vlad's call-up will do nothing for the ratings of that game. Yankees fans are going to watch.
grjas - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#358996) #
They probably already have assurance from Shapiro that Vlad will be up by then.

God forbid. Would prove they’ve
OST control to the whims of Rogers, the fans or American TV.

Course they could do worse and sign JD to a multi year contract where he insists on playing third without giving Vlad a chance.

Agree on the manager change though. I like Gibbons but sometimes you have to shake things up.
Magpie - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#358998) #
I like Gibbons but sometimes you have to shake things up.

Yes indeed, but is this one of those times? Is this an under-achieving squad, like the group that got Gibbons fired back in 2008? That's when a shakeup is required. With this group - what's the point?  Which is the same reason I can't see them bringing Vlad Jr to the majors before this September at the earliest. What's the point?

Might as well wait until the off-season, take your time, and conduct an actual search for the guy you think you can develop The Next Generation.
grjas - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#358999) #
Yeah for clarity I meant replacing Gibbons next year, when there’s a new lineup. Agree no point in doing it this year.
Mike D - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#359001) #
I'm seeing plenty of praise for Atkins in this discussion. I don't think it's enough to look at a reasonable trade price paid or a low-risk signing in isolation. It's like you're hosting a dinner party and you go to a grocery store and buy whatever's on sale. Sure, each purchase is defensible, maybe even shrewd, but you may not have the ingredients on hand for an actual dinner, let alone one your particular guests will like.

What was the overall goal of the offseason? Obviously not to compete for the 2018 World Series. Also obviously not to acquire young assets for the future, because they made no sell-side trades, and they did not make a point of acquiring well-regarded veterans in their walk years readily convertible to prospects in the event of a lost season.

I guess the goal was to respect the fans for their strong attendance and ratings by freezing payroll rather than cutting it, and trying to put an 83-85 win team together. No Man's Land, as Vulg put it. With hindsight, Atkins clearly gets a D-minus on achieving it. Without hindsight, he deserves about a B. The utter non-performance of so many key players can't be held against him. The Jays should be better than this.

But he didn't deserve an A, even for this modest goal and even at the time. The Jays acquired two players (Diaz and Grichuk) to play a lot, if not every day, despite their OBP being .290 or worse last year. The Jays are now 13th in the AL in OBP and falling fast. There used to be a time where around here we thought that was the sign of a unenlightened franchise. (Can you imagine the snark if Kenny Williams acquired Grichuk and Diaz back in the day?) But reasonably priced acquisitions don't seem to be evaluated on the same metrics as expensive ones like Morales, who everyone agrees was a disastrous acquisition. Also, the bullpen has overachieved -- low-risk financially, but a very high-risk group in terms of performance.

Fundamentally, what has been depressing since the 2015 offseason is how little ambition the Jays have shown to leverage their on-field and box office success into aggressively contending. I'm so envious of Boston fans, for whose team a lost season isn't a viable option for medium-term planning. A lost season, or lost multiple seasons, simply is a viable option for medium-term planning in Toronto.

It's pretty sad that we're not so much debating the merits of Gibby (who was a good manager on a good team) as we are saying that it doesn't matter because the team is irrelevant this season and will be for a while. I'm sorry, but I don't think this was inevitable after the 2016 season and certainly not after the 2015 season.
hypobole - Saturday, June 02 2018 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#359002) #
James, either your timeline or mine is off, but at the time Diaz was acquired, it was felt Tulo would be recovered from his sprained ankle - the decision on the bone spurs came long afterward. So no, Diaz was not acquired to play every day.
Nigel - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#359003) #
Mike D, your description of individual defensible acquisitions that, together, made no sense is bang on for last year's offseason. That was just a mess. This offseason there was much more coherence to the acquisitions but the ambition and talent acquired was so modest that it really didn't matter.

I'm pretty ambivalent to this front office group. They've shown some good and just as much bad. At some point their defenders have to accept though that they are responsible for more than half the players and half the payroll on the current roster. They own their share of this mess. Not all of it of course.
Michael - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 01:50 AM EDT (#359004) #
I think Gibson's done a good job of rolling with the punches, trying creative things, and being flexible. I don't think he deserves the blame for this mess, and changing the manager is unlikely to help.
Glevin - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 02:54 AM EDT (#359005) #
"I'm sorry, but I don't think this was inevitable after the 2016 season and certainly not after the 2015 season."

"Fundamentally, what has been depressing since the 2015 offseason is how little ambition the Jays have shown to leverage their on-field and box office success into aggressively contending."

I'd love to hear the sequence of moves that would have kept this Jays team contending. The front office has been consistent in their overall vision.
1) This is not a core to build a winner around
2) The Jays prospect depth is not such where the Jays could afford to trade to bolster the big league team.

They have been absolutely right about both. In 2015, the Jays top 10 hitters produced 33.3 WAR. Those players are worth a combined 2.3 WAR so far in 2018. This is a criticism that made some sense in 2015 if you thought the core was better than it was but now? The Jays resisted making a lot of moves fans were pushing hard for and almost every one of those decisions was great. They didn't extend Bautista, Encarnacion, or Donaldson despite immense pressure to do so. Great decisions. They didn't go out and spend big on the top free agent people wanted them to. Almost all the names people wanted them to sign would have been bad investments already. You know what "going for it" after 2015 would have looked like? Trading Vlad+ more prospects for someone like McCutchen. You really wish we had done that? There isn't really much fault here. AA went all in to try to win it. He was right to do it (the last time) because the Jays had a very small window but it left the Jays crippled long-term. This front office was right not to go for it because the long-term talent wasn't/isn't there. Sometimes, it's nobody's fault. The team just needs to be re-set.
85bluejay - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 03:38 AM EDT (#359006) #
If the FO had been as smart as some posters had wanted them to be, the jays would be having a core of Price,EE,Bautista,Donaldson,Martin,Tulo for the next few years along with the price tag. My main quibble with the FO is the failure to move more aggressively last July/winter with the rebuild.
hypobole - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#359007) #
"I'm seeing plenty of praise for Atkins in this discussion."

Where???


"they did not make a point of acquiring well-regarded veterans in their walk years readily convertible to prospects in the event of a lost season."

Who? Yeah, we could gone for Cutch, but that would have cost a prospect like Borucki or Zeuch plus, maybe even Jansen, since we'd have to outbid SF. And the deadline prospect return on him would be pretty pathetic, probably not much better than Granderson.
grjas - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#359008) #
I'd love to hear the sequence of moves that would have kept this Jays team contending.

Agreed. The core of Tulo, JD, Martin, Sanchez and Stroman are not performing this year, and largely weren’t last year.

Should we have torn down the team a year ago? Hard to say. With hindsight, sure, but with good production from the core and a reasonable chance for others to emerge it was probably worth a shot.

I think it’s too early to cheer or lament the front office. Their strategy has always been to scout, develop and build “waves” of good talent as Shapiro describes it, and their investments in development and the prospect patience they’ve shown is consistent with that. Strategy. Whether this FO becomes the second coming of Pat Gillick’s, well time will tell.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#359009) #
Agreed Glevin. AA went for it and it was fun, but now the rebuild/reset has come. The good news is that the farm is in pretty good shape and a new core will be in place before long.
scottt - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#359010) #
The best time to trade Pillar would be when he's at peak value, unless you think he's a great clubhouse leader. He's not likely to be a major contributor when the rebuilt Jays will be trying to compete.

The best time to change manager in during the off-season.
When they bring Guerrero up they should have the manager in place that they think can lead this team for the next 6 years.

Nothing against Gibby. If there was a coin flip before the game, he'd probably be 1-5 for the week.

christaylor - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#359012) #
Re OBP: "There used to be a time where around here we thought that was the sign of a unenlightened franchise."

I think most have moved on from OBP uber alles and moved on to value. Grichuk in 16 and 17 when he posted ~.290 OBP was worth 2.7 and 1.1 WAR. Sometimes it is good that certain times are in the past.

I'm not sure what the goal of the 2018 season was (we'll never know the things the FO tried to do and couldn't get done out of no fault of their own) but what was done was obvious. Shore-up LF/RF, SS, and 2B. Granderson/Grichuk, Diaz, and Solarte did that...

What major signings would you have them do that would have just taken money in 2018? You can't judge the off-season out of context. I would have liked to see Yellich or Stanton come here, but we'd probably not be talking about Vlad here.

I've seen the "lacking ambition" idea about this FO on this board many times... outside of signing David Price and EE, I'm not sure what people would have wanted the FO to do. I'm certainly glad they didn't do those deals.

I mean I get it, nobody *likes* being average, but that's the reality, most of the teams will be within spitting distance of average each year, in one direction or the other.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#359013) #
It's been three years of half assed managing so far. Three years and the most interesting piece they've added is Teoscar, who is probably average. Three years of spinning tires even though they inherited the best jays team in decades and the best jays prospect ever. And the president even admitted before the season that they hadn't really been trying since he got here, but only trying to make it look that way for the fans.

To pretend they couldn't do anything in 3yrs other than collect a whole bunch of expensive bit pieces is just dishonest excuse making.

In comparison, our last GM, after inheriting many fewer assets, by year 3 had already dumped one of the worst contracts in baseball, had made two brilliant long term extensions, had added all of Lawrie, Morrow, Happ, Rasmus, Escobar on cheap deals, and already drafted Syndergaard, Stroman, Sanchez, Desclafani, Pillar, Norris, Dyson, Barnes, Musgrove, Pompey, Smith, Alford, Borucki.




uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#359014) #
"Their strategy has always been to scout, develop and build “waves” of good talent as Shapiro describes it"

The thing is, every single team has this exact same strategy.
hypobole - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#359015) #
AA was a master trader, there's no denying that. And yeah, the current regime will never match that (though to be fair almost all FO's now are smarter than a lot were when he pulled that con job on Tony Regins).

But AA's first 3 years also had very little to do with winning ballgames and almost everything to do with asset accumulation. The team AA inherited won 85 games, the next year 79, then 74, of course with 0 playoff appearances. But let's not mention that


He was also brilliant manipulator of the draft system at the time.
hypobole - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#359016) #
The draft system early in AA's time was very different than now. AA managed 21 top 100 picks in his first 3 years. That was terrific work on his part. What he did with those 21 picks, much less so.

This FO has had 7 and will have 10 total in their 3rd year, and there's really nothing they can do to manipulate that.

And look at AA's last draft in 2015 under the new rules- there's little way to sugarcoat that.
finch - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#359017) #
Harris was a meh pick but it was the 29th pick. AA hit a home run with Brady Singer at pick 56 but there were issues in his medical report. Brady Singer is a top 5 pick this draft. Justin Maese was the pick that AA LOVED! Young Texas power arm who's been dealing with injuries. I think there were a couple of HS arms AA wanted at pick 29 and went with what they know given that they drafted Harris previously in the mid-teen rounds. Moving forward in the draft, you can not let a player go without signing them (within the first 10 rounds). I think that's death.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#359018) #
Also, the importance of OBP has already been integrated into more current stats - It's why wOBA/wRC+ is better to use than OPS/OPS+.
Mike D - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#359019) #
First, let me say that I agree that the ship had sailed for 2018 before this offseason began. I didn't suggest otherwise above. The time for ambition was after the 2015 and 2016 seasons (more on that in a sec), but there isn't much they could have done to make the team a contender in 2018.

That being said, as for what would have helped the franchise going forward among the 2017-18 free agent class? I would have been in on Cain at $80M. And, although it's crazy to consider given the Jays' conservatism, I think JD Martinez at $110M in March (after MLBTR estimated $150M) was a nice bit of business for Boston.

After 2015, the Jays had a championship calibre roster with few minor league trade assets, no plausible in-house alternatives in the high minors, and roaring attendance and ratings. There has never been a time, before or since, where the franchise cycle so clearly justified free agent acquisitions. It was the card to play at that time, especially after 2015 and still legitimately after 2016. And over the next three offseasons, the team signed two FAs to 3+ year deals: Happ and Morales.

We can go around and around with hindsight about which FAs would have helped. You can point to anything the Orioles have done, or closer to home, you can correctly point out that it's a good thing the Jays got outbid by $20M on Fowler. Certainly, one could have made a case at the time for signing several FAs who worked out disastrously. Plenty of bad FA contracts to go around.

There have been some solid ones, too. I thought that the Jays could have and should have been in on Miller, Reddick, Zobrist and Murphy at the numbers they commanded, given team needs over the last two offseasons. Given Murphy's serious injury, maybe that wouldn't have mattered.

(At this point, cue the speculation about how the Jays would never have succeeded in attracting any of these FAs. I disagree, but more importantly, it can't be proven when the Jays are never actually making competitive offers. AA made a very competitive offer for Lester, but wouldn't deviate from the internal 5 year rule. Read Passan's "The Arm" for the details.)

And yes, I would have re-signed Edwin. Sue me. I have never once suggested that the Jays should have bested Boston's ridiculously team-unfriendly contract with Price.

But you know who signed significant FA deals over the last season, both good and bad? Other Major League Baseball clubs. None of them have folded operations in disgrace or bankruptcy, so far as I can tell. Not all of these organizations are dumb about their payroll or roster construction. And each and every one of those contracts were signed with teams carefully assessing the risk before assuming it. None of them intended to spend money "for the sake of spending it" when inking the FA.

It's just that so many in Toronto have been Stockholm Syndromed into thinking it would be a devastating calamity -- in a league with no salary cap -- for Rogers Communications to make a baseball player very rich without an ironclad, no-risk guarantee that the player will provide superior performance for every year of the deal.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#359020) #
I think there is a little more creativity with this front office than people give them credit for. The Liriano swaps brought in prospects for basically cash, Biagini was a great rule 5 pick and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. looks at least comparable to AA's cuban singing of Hechavarria. The Grichuk swap isn't really much different than the Rasmus swap.

The real major check mark on this front office so far is that both drafts under Shaprio have been impressive. Pearson and Bichette have been home run hits and there are plenty of other legitimate prospects from those drafts such as Cavan Biggio, Kevin Smith, TJ Zeuch, Chavez Young and Logan Warmoth.
finch - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#359021) #
Logan Warmoth is losing his prospect shine. I didn't like the pick to begin with and seeing him play in Vancouver was meh; he did nothing that impressed me for a first round pick. That pick was a total dud.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#359022) #
Shoeless - almost every single move the FO has made has been defensible to good on an individual basis, aside from probably Morales. I don't think anyone is arguing against that.
finch - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#359023) #
I think the Jays need to get ahead of the game and start moving players now, before the trade deadline. On the roster, I would likely look to move:
JA Haap
Josh Donaldson
Justin Smoak
Curtis Granderson
Steve Pearce
Seung-hwan Oh
Troy Tulowitzki (Eat half his salary or more)
I think the pitching is having an off year; there's no need to panic about that. Look into signing JA Haap in the off season. Estrada, Stroman, Sanchez and Happ still should be a very good rotation. Trading the aforementioned should net 3 to 4 Top 100 prospects.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#359024) #
Warmoth obviously isn't working out super well, but the Pearson and Smith picks easily make up for it. Smith is hitting like the 1st rounder and Warmoth is hitting like the 4th rounder. I like a lot of the other mid round picks like Cullen Large, Zack Louge and Justin Dillon a year later as well.

I mean the sum of its parts aren't adding up real nice this season for the front office right now, but it's always hard to extend a window. Its pretty obvious that the team is bottomed out at this point.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#359027) #
Yeah the drafts look very good so far, though they might look even better if they used the same high risk/reward philosophy with their 1st overalls that they seem to use on their later picks.
Mike Green - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#359032) #
I don't mind an infield of Solarte, Diaz, Travis and Smoak.  I don't mind an outfield of Grichuk, Pillar and Hernandez.  I don't mind a catching duo of Martin and Maile.  A starting rotation of Happ, Stroman, Sanchez, Gaviglio and Borucki would be fine.  The bullpen is serviceable.  A Granderson/Morales platoon at DH, at least until Pearce returns, would be palatable.  Things should be getting better.
lexomatic - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#359033) #
I don't mind an infield of Solarte, Diaz, Travis and Smoak.  I don't mind an outfield of Grichuk, Pillar and Hernandez.  I don't mind a catching duo of Martin and Maile.  A starting rotation of Happ, Stroman, Sanchez, Gaviglio and Borucki would be fine.  The bullpen is serviceable.  A Granderson/Morales platoon at DH, at least until Pearce returns, would be palatable.  Things should be getting better.
This is where our despair could look dumb. With better average players healthy and productive (A. Diaz and Grichuck) and older players finally heating up (Martin) might make the team less horrendous to watch.
BlueMonday - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#359034) #
Paul Frank @pwgfrank
Jun 2

BREAKING: The Toronto Blue Jays concede that they will not be 2018 World Series champions but ask for your continued support to prevent a Yankees/Red Sox majority.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#359041) #
"With better average players healthy and productive (A. Diaz and Grichuck) and older players finally heating up (Martin) might make the team less horrendous to watch. "

odds are definitely that they get better, that's true.
SK in NJ - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#359043) #
People mention payroll because it directly relates to how the team could potentially improve in the future. Many of us did not want the team to re-sign Price, Bautista, and Encarnacion. Not because we did not want to see them cash out, but rather because it was pretty clear that those contracts would have meant investing a lot of money and years into their declining years despite the team's win curve dropping. Any time you are paying a player in his 30's for past performance, rather than projected future performance, the team is likely going to get burnt. There are exceptions, but not many.

The FO's free agent signings and trades only really mattered in 2016 when the team's window of contention was still there. The moves in 2017 and 2018 were more to fill holes on the big league roster (+ add depth in the case of 2018). They were value driven moves. If you don't have a prospect ready to take over a position, then you need a stop gap. That's all Morales, Pearce, Solarte, Garcia, etc, are. In the case of Grichuk it was a shot in the dark to see if he had another gear in his bat, but for the most part the FO has kept it pretty basic.

Doubling down on the 2015-16 core would have been a nightmare, and all you have to do is look at how Jose, Edwin, Price, etc, are doing to realize that investing some $70M combined per year to all three (or whatever it would have taken) covering his mid-to-late 30's would have been a massive mistake. Hell, all you have to do is look at the remainder of that core that is still on the roster. Pillar is the best of the group left, while Donaldson, Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Martin, Tulo, and Travis have all been bad, hurt, or in legal trouble.

What you are seeing in 2017 and 2018 is how to rebuild with Rogers as owners. The big league team is secondary to building up a minor league system that can flourish at the big league level at the same time (the Vlad years). I'm glad this FO was willing to take it on the chin (in terms of PR, optics, etc), because if they hadn't, then the outlook wouldn't look as good as it does now.
scottt - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#359045) #
There are lots of high risk guys and most of them slip out of first round where the low risk guys get drafted.
There's a lot of luck involved and I'm fine with hedging the bets.

Mike D - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#359046) #
SK, I agree that the 2015-16 offseason was the one that mattered and that subsequent offseasons have diminished in terms of realistic opportunity to make meaningful improvements.

But I don't agree that this front office's moves have been "willing to take it on the chin in terms of PR and optics." Don't you think the buying (though halfhearted) and the lack of selling have been motivated by PR and optics? An actual, clear rebuild -- that would have been "taking it on the chin."
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#359047) #
You answered your own question Mike. Their commitment to buying has been half hearted at best.

I think SK's point is that they had to take it on the chin two ways;

Not diving in to resign their best players or better players in free agency

Signing value/safe/low risk/dumpster dive players to fill in the needs.

They ended up getting criticized (fairly) from both angles and in the end SK's point is they probably did it so that they could be in the position they are in now to easily transition without zero flexibility.
John Northey - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#359048) #
So, what if Price, EE, and Bautista were still here?
Price: 6-4 4.08 ERA in 12 starts, 3.75 FIP, 110 ERA+ - solid but not a game changer
EE: 241/314/487 108 OPS+ - better than his replacement, but not by a lot. 0.5 WAR is nicer than negative but not a 'wow'
Bautista: 215/338/400 104 ops+ but a 152 in 12 games for the Mets so he might be coming back, still what a mess it would've been if the Jays signed him for 5 years eh?

The 3 combined wouldn't really have moved the needle much.  Price probably would've preventing signing Happ who has performed at pretty much the same level this year (4.08 ERA in 12 starts as well).  EE vs Morales is a blowout for EE as Morales is hitting 202/276/333 with a -0.5 WAR but 1 win isn't enough.  Bautista would've been a mess here as he'd have been out there everyday and probably prevented the signing of Granderson who has hit just as well (106 OPS+) while making about 1/4 to 1/5th of what Bautista was demanding.

Yeah, the 3 would've been nice but that would've been $70+ million per year for at least 2 more years and it wouldn't get the Jays a playoff slot.
hypobole - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#359051) #
Since AA took over 2009 until this past off season, what have been the 3 biggest Toronto Free Agent signings, by term and AAV?
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#359052) #
Is there as much value to "blowing it up" as there used to be? Look at what Tampa Bay got for Jake Odorizzi. The only player the Jays will likely get a whole lot less for is Josh Donaldson, and one trade will not break or make a franchise when it comes to rebuilding. It takes a series of good moves to build a team.

Look at Boston, New York, Houston or the Chicago Cubs. How much of their current success was from excellent drafting, development and international signings and how much is from tearing down the old teams? The best player to come out of any of those teams tearing it down was Jake Arietta which didn't involve any sort of star player going to Baltimore. Getting basically nothing out of the first round in the draft outside of Marcus Stroman from 2011-2015 will hurt the Jays more than not trading Donaldson sooner.
Mike D - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#359053) #
Hypobole, the answer:

1) Russell Martin 5/82
2) JA Happ 3/36
3) Kendrys Morales 3/33

The second-richest free agent contract for which AA got authorization was Melky's 2/16. He did obviously take on much richer contracts through the Marlins and Rockies trades, and he extended Jose and Edwin.
Mike D - Sunday, June 03 2018 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#359054) #
I now see you asked for AAV rather than total dollars. I leave it to you to do the math.
cybercavalier - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#359055) #
GIven that infielders Vlad G. Jr, Biggio and Bichette are coming up to the majors, shall the Jays hire a coach who are known to tutor young infielders well. This article is available almost 6 years ago. Shall the Jays bring now in a coach like Butterfield who could take Gibbons' job if the latter would have been fired like how some posters speculated?
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#359056) #
Thanks Mike. The 6 names you mentioned were 1 Canadian (Martin), 3 with Blue Jays ties (Jose, Edwin, Happ), 1 pariah (Cabrera) and 1 huge overpay at the time of signing (Morales).

Anyone who has followed the Jays for years knows why this is the case. Free Agents rarely if ever consider Toronto as a preferred destination. First it's about money. Not just the money from the team, but take home pay after taxes. Some don't want to play in a foreign country, a few sign near their homes, which is pretty well never Toronto.

AA expressed frustration in his tenure about the different pricing structures - player agents demanding more money for their clients than they were asking from other teams. That's why AA went the trade route most often for big contract guys.

Anyway the point of all this is that we have a habit of equating what Free Agents signed for elsewhere is what they would have signed for here, which is, in all likelihood, not close to the truth.
Paul D - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:15 AM EDT (#359057) #
It's always seemed to me that the inability of Toronto to sign free agents is overblown, and has more to do with the Jays not wanting to be the highest bidder than anything else. Impossible to prove one way or another I suppose.

One comment I want to make to to some of the responses to the excellent Mike D post - I don't remember anyone clamoring for Bautista to be resigned, particularly for the probably fictitious price of $150 million over 5 years. Price and Edwin, yes, people wanted them back, but the calls to sign Bautista long term were pretty rare.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#359058) #
Paul I do remember AA complaining one offseason about FA's demands being "x", but asking Toronto for "x + y".

Also remember the Ervin Santana fiasco.

On the other hand, Beeston's 5 year max/4 yr pitchers rule and Rogers' payroll parameters were self-imposed. And yeah, you're right about Batista





uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#359061) #
Imo there is definitely a Canadian "tax" when it comes to free agents.

But other factors can mitigate that, and 2yrs ago we had free agents more than willing - even eager - to come here.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#359064) #
Mike D, what I meant by "taking it on the chin" was they had to make a lot of unpopular decisions by letting go key free agents and having to take the blame (unfairly) for the inevitable collapse of this core post-2016. They could have given in to optics and signed Edwin, Bautista, Price, etc, but they accurately realized the short shelf-life of the team they inherited and rightfully scaled back after 2016 rather than doubling down in hopes of prolonging it.

As far as a clear rebuild, while I think the team definitely needed one (or at least maximizing the return on their vets without rebuilding), I think Rogers may have had a hand in trying to keep this a .500 team in hopes that it could contend for a WC spot and keep attendance at a high level. Obviously it failed, but I'm not sure I'd pin that on the FO. It seems like 2017 and 2018 was more trying to sell hope to the fans to keep them coming, as this team on paper could have been a Wild Card contender in both years (at least projection-wise), but that has always been Rogers M.O. regardless of who the GM was. A full on rebuild likely wasn't an option.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#359066) #
"and rightfully scaled back after 2016 rather than doubling down in hopes of prolonging it."

1. they didn't "scale back", they just allocated moneys differently.
2. there is no sign that their allocation decisions have in any way affected the timeline for a rebuild, one way or the other.
3. "rightfully" is an opinion, and a strange one given that back to back ALCS is something neither Shapiro nor Atkins had ever achieved before, and given that doubling down on that would have little effect on a rebuild for 5+ years down the line. (not to mention that rebuild will be lucky to get to back to back ALCS at any point itself).
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#359067) #
"and 2yrs ago we had free agents more than willing - even eager - to come here."

You mean Edwin and Jose?
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#359068) #
and Price, Happ, Estrada, etc.
Mike Green - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#359069) #
The Jays were 19-16 when Diaz hit the DL after the May 6.  Their struggles throughout the remainder of May have a lot to do with his absence, although there were other factors. He's not a great player, but he is (to my surprise) a perfectly capable shortstop.  I had advocated for Zack Cozart, and he would have been a good addition, but the club is probably better off in the long run as they did it. 

Kendrys Morales turns 35 on June 20.  I think that he's earned a 2 week holiday to celebrate it beginning on Thursday's game against the Yankees.  I kid.  He should however not be playing  instead of Grichuk, Hernandez or Granderson against RHPs..  A man of his experience also ought not to ever be forced to shoulder the weight of batting in the cleanup slot.
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#359070) #
I believe if we had a discussion on Roger's MO, there would be a lot of disagreement.

So what are the actual facts?
1) I believe Ash was sort of forced to make draft picks that would sign cheap deals instead of expensive deals.

2) I am not sure what Richardi was doing. I believe he did not go very hard after int'l FAs. But he went after and signed the regular FAs. BJ Ryan, B Molina, F Thomas and AJ Burnett.

Rogers had a medium budget until 2013. $70-90 mil I think. I don't believe that they would go to $125 mil.

IMO, if you take the job as GM you have to accept the budget that the owner gives you. How the GM uses it is probably up to him to a large extent. Richardi was forced to sign V Wells.
AA built through the draft and int'l signings. There was probably a budget there too. Moncado was probably too expensive for the budget IMO.

Gurriel was not too expensive for the budget.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#359071) #
A big part of the Jays window was having two elite sluggers on dirt cheap contracts (relative to the market). The moment they became free agents, it was effectively the end of the team's run. Either the Jays could have re-signed them, meaning paying them way more money for way worse results (since they were in their mid-30's and surely to decline) or allocating that $24M in other areas but getting no where near the same production. That is not even factoring the impending decline of Tulo and Martin. It was a losing proposition. I don't fault ownership for wanting to keep the money train going, but it was always going to be diminishing returns. That doesn't excuse signing Morales, but adding someone better in his place likely would not have made much of a difference.

Having payroll flexibility will help in making trades. The Jays got Hernandez for Liriano largely because they had the flexibility to absorb money in the deal. They could try to pull off similar moves next month. Morales might be horrible, but he's reasonably harmless from a payroll standpoint. The money it would have taken (plus NTC's, lost draft picks, etc) to sign Price, Edwin, Jose, Fowler, etc, to long-term deals would have made it more difficult to have that flexibility.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#359072) #
all their contracts will have been up by the time we're contending again.
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#359078) #
I echo the puzzlement -- given that FA always spit out anodyne statements about wanting to play for this team, how does one even know that a player is willing/eager to play in Toronto? EE clearly didn't want to play for the Jays for any Price... and while Price may have wanted to resign with the Jays certainly he had a Price that over-rode any notion of that happening.

Paul D - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#359081) #
I don't think it's at all clear that EE didn't want to play here.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#359082) #
I actually looked it up while watching Handmaid's Tale last night, but didn't post it for fear of being annoying, but hey that ship has sailed already...

..so I went through the first 3yrs of AA's acquisitions, not including existing jays who he just re-upped, and compared their WAR to the first 3yrs of Shapiro/Atkins. And yes, it's not apples to apples because there is still plenty of season left in this current 3rd year for Shapiro/Atkins....but still, the gap in value is pretty stark, and not one that'll be closed anytime soon:

1st 3yrs Acquistions WAR:

Anthopolous: 31.5war
Shapiro/Atkins: 10.5war
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#359083) #
Agreed christaylor. All FAs know how the game is played. Price was ok with Toronto as long as they came up with the best bucks.

I have heard of pitchers that don't want to sign with Toronto, TB and Baltimore because these teams have to play NYY and Boston 18 times each season. Garcia for example will find Toronto tough to pitch for. The AL Central would make him a better pitcher.
Mike Green - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#359086) #
Can we talk about Luke Maile?  He looks like a completely different hitter.  I'm not talking about results.  His swing perecentage is off 5% from previous years.  He is being quite selective and not afraid of getting to 2 strikes at all.  And he's not looking simply to make contact but to drive the ball.  The result has been more walks, more strikeouts and more line drives and hard hit balls.  He's obviously not going to sustain a BABIP of .407, but the approach is a good one for him.  Maile can be a .250/.310/.410 kind of hitter, in the long run.  And he controls the running game. 
jerjapan - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#359091) #
In the good news department, I just noticed that Tim Collins is back in the bigs with the Nats (currently on paternity leave) after four years of battling injuries.  Good for Collins, that's a tough row to hoe. 
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#359094) #
I would say EE not wanting to play here is the clearest case of them all -- if memory serves, both the team and the agent have confirmed there was an offer and it was rejected. You know what someone who wanted to play here would have done? Accepted the offer.
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#359095) #
Nobody but the baseball gods know when that might be -- that said, I would have an even harder time rooting for a team that was performing poorly AND whose contracts were bad deals. Think of all the hand-wringing over the Morales and yelping about "sunk cost" times however many more players like him were on the roster. Jays fans have been there before (see Wells, Vernon).
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#359096) #
Nobody but the baseball gods know when that might be -- that said, I would have an even harder time rooting for a team that was performing poorly AND whose contracts were bad deals. Think of all the hand-wringing over the Morales and yelping about "sunk cost" times however many more players like him were on the roster. Jays fans have been there before (see Wells, Vernon).
dalimon5 - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#359097) #
You can go back as recently as Sabathia this past off-season who went on radio to say that he had a solid offer from Toronto but didn't want to face the NYY so many times as a left handed pitcher.
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#359099) #
Maile's development is certainly a bright spot for this team. Without him looking like a major league catcher and above-average backup catcher, we'd all probably be paying a lot more attention to how bad Martin has looked all season long. Heck, I'm happy thinking of Martin as the back-up (or to be kinder, super-sub) for next year or until Maile is forced out of the job by Jansen, probably by some mysterious coincidence in May 2019 when Vlad, Bo also are deemed ready.
Hodgie - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#359100) #
The funny thing about Maile, he was considered a bat-first prospect that probably couldn't stick behind the plate going forward when he was drafted out of Kentucky.
Paul D - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#359101) #
EE got an offer he didn't like. That doesn't mean he didn't want to play here. If Toronto had offered him 4/$80 million right away, or waited a bit and offered 3/$60 million, seems likely he'd have stayed.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#359102) #
"I would have an even harder time rooting for a team that was performing poorly AND whose contracts were bad deals."

with all the money concentrated on a few big contracts, we'd get to see kids fill the rest of the spots, instead of a roster full of overpaid mediocre vets all the way through.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#359103) #
"with all the money concentrated on a few big contracts, we'd get to see kids fill the rest of the spots, instead of a roster full of overpaid mediocre vets all the way through."

It it in the CBA that it has to be one or the other?
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#359112) #
I get what you're trying to say but I don't get this logic. He *must* have known that refusing the offer increased his chances of not playing in Toronto. It wasn't as if the offer reported was absurd. His desire to play in Toronto, however weak or strong, was not enough forhim to say, "yes". By declining the offer he essentially said "I don't want to play for Tornto that much." I don't fault him for that but to claim he wanted to play in Toronto while knowing he refused an offer to play in Toronto has a logic I can't get on board with...
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#359113) #
Possibly... but it could just as easily have been a team replacement level AAAA types as kids with any promise.
scottt - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#359116) #
roster full of overpaid mediocre vets?

I need a list of names here, because i have no idea of what you're talking about.

Tulo and Martin were already here. Tulo hasn't blocked anyone. Heck they couldn't find anyone to play shortstop once Diaz was on the shelf, not even Gurriel who is on an MLB contract.

Morales isn't really blocking anyone either. It would be a lot different if Tellez was hitting in AAA.
Is Grichuk an overpaid vet? Solarte isn't overpaid and would be a great guy to have around when the roster turn over. Pillar? Travis? Pearce?

That just leaves Granderson. He's only making 5M and he illustrates what's wrong with your arguments.
Had the team not expected to contend, they would have loaded up with vets on short contracts who could become tradeable at the deadline. They would not bring prospects before they are ready.

Michael - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#359120) #
The common wisdom at the time was EE would get a fair bit more than the Toronto offer. It would be fair to say EE didn't want to play for Toronto for a discount without figuring out how big the market was. The timeline was extremely curtailed by the Jays, not EE, because we had to sign Morales before someone else did.

That decision is horrible in retrospect. At the time, was a little more defensible since no one knew what off-season market would be like, and many thought it might heat up. In the previous season we won big by signing pitchers early before market prices rose.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#359123) #
Not complicated really. Kids could be playing instead of Morales Pearce granderson solarte Estrada Garcia etc while saving us $50m+.
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#359127) #
I think we will have more kids next year. Jansen just completed 200ABs in AAA. 67ABs last year. He can come up now.

Alford has less AAA experience than Jansen. Letting Zeke go was betting on Grichuck.

This FO brought in the depth at low cost overall. We saw it happen. The hope was to contend for the 2nd WC. I thought we could.

I expected more from Stroman, Osuna and Donaldson. That did not happen.

Donaldson wants to be paid like an elite player. But so far his production is not elite.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#359128) #
As for EE, the groundwork for him walking away was laid well before that offer was made, when they made it very clear to him it was all business and there was no personal relationship involved before the season.

The thought that after that cold shoulder he would just up and take their first offer without taking a look at the market was at best naive....but at worst totally expected and part of the plan.
christaylor - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#359138) #
I don't disagree that the groundwork for EE was laid before he left but only because I don't know how I could agree... I don't see how anyone but the FO, EE, and his agent could know the accuracy of that statement. Both the Jays FO and EE got burned by it... I think it is just as reasonable to say the FO tried dealing and we're probably but right off by EEs demands.I don't really believe that, but it seems as reasonable as the "laying the groundwork" narrative. The Jays offer was not a discount it was the best offer he got.
scottt - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#359190) #
It doesn't take 2 months to look at the market. Especially for a DH.
Clearly, EE had no better offers than the one from the Jays. That's like the long stare between JD Martinez and the Red Sox. Except they Jays put their best offer on the table and moved on.

Also, I can only imagine how much it would have taken to extend Donaldson in the spring.

cybercavalier - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#359215) #
Not complicated really. Kids could be playing instead of Morales Pearce granderson solarte Estrada Garcia etc while saving us $50m+  (uglyone Monday, June 04 2018 06:57 PM EDT)
That seems to be a quick solution. Can the Jays trade away Morales, Pearce, Granderson etc.? For example, when the Rays plays 2B/SS Brad Miller mostly at 1B and 1B Cron at DH, is trading away Morales to the Rays a possibility? With Smith Jr., Pillar, Grichuk and Hernandez, is Granderson now often used in May as a pinch hitter? BBref shows the negation: 16 games out of 22 in May, Granderson had 3 to 4 PAs or more.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#359216) #
No MLB team wants Morales.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#359228) #
I would prefer if the club ran out an everyday outfield of Grichuk, Hernandez and Pillar for both development and current performance reasons.  Granderson, Solarte and (once he returns) Donaldson can fill out the 4th outfielder, third base and DH roles.  I don't see a role for Morales beyond a RH DH for now- at this point, his usage is leading to Granderson playing the outfield instead of DHing most of the time and squeezing time from (mostly) Grichuk and Hernandez. 
uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#359230) #
Yeah, if we sat down and crunched the numbers we probably could add up much more negative impact from playing Morales' than just his current -0.8war.

He should have been dropped in the offseason. There was zero benefit to keeping him on the roster, short or longterm, and plenty of downside. It gets me a bit riled up thinking about it - the FO knew full well that this would be the most likely result of playing him this year. but they did it anyways, because they were too scared to admit a mistake.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#359233) #
The FO definitely must bear most of the responsibility for Morales.  Gibbons does get some though-  putting Morales' name in the cleanup role on Sunday was inexcusable. lt's the old traditional "power" thing, I think, that plays a role in this kind of incomprehensible decision.  Gibbons is not alone- Scioscia is doing the same thing with Pujols, but at least Pujols has a history that is worthy of some special deference.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#359238) #
There has been some whispers lately that Gibbons sticking Russ in at shortstop was a bit of a finger to management for not giving him a real shortstop to use.

Sticking Morales in at cleanup may be something similar. After all, gibbons didn't hesitate to drop him down to the bottom of the order before.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#359239) #
Mike, I agree totally on your thoughts on the current lineup. I am sick of seeing DHs in the OF and Solarte playing anywhere but 3B. I also don't believe that Grichuk has a long term future in MLB due to his contact issues but I do think that they should run him out there for the rest of the season to find out. What it the current point to playing Morales at all or Granderson/Pearce in the OF (other than as an occasional 4th OF)?
Nigel - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#359240) #
BTW - its one thing to play someone like JD Martinez in the OF even though he really should be DH'ing. His bat still makes him valuable in that role. Its another to put players like Granderson and Pearce in the OF and wipe out most, if not all, of their actual value by doing so. They have turned interesting to good value signings into worthless signings by doing so. It's beyond me why the front office cannot see this.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#359242) #
"It's beyond me why the front office cannot see this."

Is it beyond you why the front office might just not care?
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#359296) #
Morales is batting clean-up again tonight.  I'd have Travis batting leadoff, Solarte second, Hernandez batting third and Smoak hitting fourth.  Pillar would hit fifth and Martin sixth.  And then I'd think about whether Morales hit 7th or 8th.  There are plenty of other reasonable options, but none have them have Morales batting clean-up. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#359299) #
Donaldson is taking batting practice with the big club today.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#359308) #
Yes - its pretty clear to me why the front office wouldn't care what I think:)

No - it isn't clear to me why the front office places so little value on defence. They sure talk a lot about getting more athletic and placing more importance on defence.
cybercavalier - Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#359338) #
[I]ts one thing to play someone like JD Martinez in the OF even though he really should be DH'ing. His bat still makes him valuable in that role. Its another to put players like Granderson and Pearce in the OF and wipe out most, if not all, of their actual value by doing so. They have turned interesting to good value signings into worthless signings by doing so. It's beyond me why the front office cannot see this. (Nigel Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 12:57 PM EDT)

If management by front offices of different organization can be compared, the Rays traded the 1.1 WAR, 34 years old corner OF Denard Span and 0.3, 30 relief pitcher Alex Colome for a second round draftee, 24 years old SP Andrew Moore and an unknown 15 rounder, 20 years old. Can the Jays trade Granderson, a 30 year old relief pitcher, for example, Petricka, and a 10 plus rounder pitcher for a higher end prospect that is blocked in organization. Then Janssen, Smith Jr. or Pompey can be promoted. Martin and Solarte share duties at 3B and 2B respectively. Maile and Janssen start catching while Martin is the wild card in late inning at C or 3B.This season is the last on Pearce's contract.

I'd have Travis batting leadoff, Solarte second, Hernandez batting third and Smoak hitting fourth. Pillar would hit fifth and Martin sixth. (Mike Green Tuesday, June 05 2018 @ 04:48 PM EDT)

Travis' hitting average is .194 tonight....
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