Kelly is kind of an odd case. He's only 5' 10" but his best position is 1B. Hard to imagine having much of a chance as a short first baseman. He's a switch hitter, but he can't hit lefties at all. Probably would be better off hitting left handed all the time. From 2015 to now, he has 31 HR's hitting left handed, and only 2 (!) hitting right handed. Hitting lefty, he can really mash the ball, though. His left handed OPS in Lansing in 2016 was .811, in Dunedin in 2017 was .844, and so far in New Hampshire this year is .877. He's only 23 years old. He's got a chance to carve out a bit of a career as a platoon guy if he can find a position - he's played some 3B, OF and C as a pro.

Steve Pearce is listed at 5' 11".  If he hits enough, some mix of LF/1B/DH is possible.

I always thought that height at 1B was critical. You need that reach/wing span.
Only 6'0" seemed short for me.

Dan ZIPS with an update on top draft picks. Not looking good for Warmoth, although it's not looking good (and a couple looking bad) for the next 7 guys picked after Warmoth either.


"No. 22: SS Logan Warmoth, Toronto Blue Jays
Minor league translation to date: .224/.268/.300, 7 SB, 13 2B in 343 AB

I was hoping for a bit more power from Warmoth, who hit 10 homers in 63 games in his final season at UNC. He isn't making up for it with contact, hitting only .243 for Dunedin. Warmoth wasn't drafted as a top defensive shortstop, either, and ZiPS has him at minus-3 over 73 games at the position. Right now, ZiPS sees Warmoth peaking at a .240/.290/.350 with eight to 10 homers a year, enough to get him a utility job for a few years if he shows he can be versatile, but not more than that. Which would be a shame, because "War Moth" has great nickname potential."

That is a generous height listing for Kelly. I am intrigued by where the official height and weight listings for minor league players come from. Their accuracy seems completely random to me. For example, Warmoth isn't really that close to either his listed height and weight but Adams is. No idea why.

I don't think that Warmoth is a SS at all in the long run due to his lack of arm strength and I don't think that there really is much power potential either. There has been an uptick this year in his walk rate which is promising and I do think the contact skills will improve as the season goes on. The optimistic scenario for him is a slightly above average defensive 2B with solid contact and strike zone control skills. That may well work. There really isn't much upside there though.

I am sure that War Moth was one of my son's Magic cards 20 years ago.  Very vulnerable to Swatter despite the fearsome name. 

i went back and looked at warmoth draft day reactions and all the people bringing up Russ Adams as a comp and all the experts assuring us he was MUCH better than Russ.

let's see how the comp looks right now:

Yr 1 (Age 21)

Adams (A+): 169pa, 10.7b%/10.1k%, .231avg, .075iso, .628ops
Adams (A-): 141pa, 17.0b%/7.8k%, .354avg, .115iso, .933ops
Warmoth (A-): 174pa, 4.0b%/19.0k%, .306avg, .113iso, .775ops

Yr 2 (Age 22)

Adams (AA): 305pa, 9.8b%/12.1k%, .277avg, .110iso, .736ops
Adams (A+): 310pa, 12.3b%/8.7k%, .279avg, .109iso, .768ops
Warmoth (A+): 171pa, 9.4b%/21.1k%, .243avg, .072iso, .637ops

yikes.

at this point, Russ still looked like a solid, though not spectacular, prospect, especially if he still projected to be playable at SS.

Warmoth is way, way behind where Russ was with the bat at this point, and I'm not sure his defensive reports sound much different.


That being said, the 2017 1st round seems to be full of a bunch of duds already. even a bunch in the top 10. so maybe it was just a terrible draft.

then again, that just makes it even more bizarre to me that Pearson, hitting triple digits with command, and with two somewhat promising offspeed pitches, somehow fell so far. He looked like a top 10 talent to me on draft day.

i went back and looked at warmoth draft day reactions and all the people bringing up Russ Adams as a comp and all the experts assuring us he was MUCH better than Russ.

let's see how the comp looks right now:

Yr 1 (Age 21)

Adams (A+): 169pa, 10.7b%/10.1k%, .231avg, .075iso, .628ops
Adams (A-): 141pa, 17.0b%/7.8k%, .354avg, .115iso, .933ops
Warmoth (A-): 174pa, 4.0b%/19.0k%, .306avg, .113iso, .775ops

Yr 2 (Age 22)

Adams (AA): 305pa, 9.8b%/12.1k%, .277avg, .110iso, .736ops
Adams (A+): 310pa, 12.3b%/8.7k%, .279avg, .109iso, .768ops
Warmoth (A+): 171pa, 9.4b%/21.1k%, .243avg, .072iso, .637ops

yikes.

at this point, Russ still looked like a solid, though not spectacular, prospect, especially if he still projected to be playable at SS.

Warmoth is way, way behind where Russ was with the bat at this point, and I'm not sure his defensive reports sound much different.


That being said, the 2017 1st round seems to be full of a bunch of duds already. even a bunch in the top 10. so maybe it was just a terrible draft.

then again, that just makes it even more bizarre to me that Pearson, hitting triple digits with command, and with two somewhat promising offspeed pitches, somehow fell so far. He looked like a top 10 talent to me on draft day.

Thanks UO. You have done a good comparison on Warmoth's production to date. Also thanks to Nigel.

With that in mind ie that our #1 pick could be a "not stud", I would choose someone like Kumar Rocker. He is ranked in the 20s. We can give him a discounted signing bonus. If he refuses, the pick is protected. We then have extra money to spend on lower round picks.

I do realize that when the #12 pick comes that there will be many high ranking players available. So the FO will be criticized.

If we don't sign our 1st round pick, we lose that pool money, IIRC over $4 million.

You make sure that your pick can be signed before you draft him. Otherwise, move on.

"then again, that just makes it even more bizarre to me that Pearson, hitting triple digits with command"

Except that's not right, uo. FG has Pearson with 35 present command and this:

"On the other hand, there’s risk with hard throwers — especially those with new velocity — and Pearson has had control issues ever since his velocity spiked."

I think Warmoth has better hands than Russ Adams.

I always thought that Adams was a pretty good offensive prospect. In addition to his well above average strike zone control it looked like he was going to offer some significant base running value too. Warmoth is by no means slow but I don't think he can add a lot of additional value through his base running.

Have the rules been changed hypopole? Top 3 rounds used to be protected I believe. Under that (old)system we would pick #13 in 2019 and still get to spend $4mil. AA used that clause.

That happened with unsigned, Tyler Beede, Phil ??? and Brady Singer.

But unsigned round 4-10 you lose the pick and money. Unprotected rounds.

Unfortunately I don't have stats relative to league for Russ adams at equivalent  ages. 15 years difference is enough to make a straight comparison of stats not worth much.

The first stats from pro ball after the draft are interesting.
Surprising small sample size sometimes skeeps sgoing.
Bichette was amazing right out of gate.
Kevin Smith looked like the better shortstop pick over Warmoth out of the gate.
Hagen Danner couldn't hit sill can't
Noda like Bichette except he's resting arms and working on his eye this year.

When we drafted Beede in 2011 there was no bonus pool system - we could spend as much as we wanted. It was instituted the following year.

When we didn't sign Singer in 2015, we lost the bonus money. So instead of $5,411,000 (+5%) to spend, we had $4,319,800 (+5%). Other than (maybe) Maese, that was an awful draft.

Harris has been a bust, although he was a defensible pick at the time.  But it's premature to write the 2015 draft off entirely IMO.  Singer hurt, but Travis Bergen and Danny Young are fast-rising lefty relievers, and Jackson McLelland has a big arm from the right side.  Jose Espada and Reggie Pruitt are young and have struggled a bit, but both have some upside.  Christian Williams is finally showing his power, but is 23 and repeating in Lansing.  And Maese looked like a great pick before all the injuries.
Actually, I just talked myself into calling this a poor draft - a lot of guys are already retired or released, and top ten picks like Wise and Cardenas were total busts.  Harris looks like he's done as a prospect as well.

"When we didn't sign Singer in 2015, we lost the bonus money."

Yes, but we got it back the next year. Presuming Singer required over-slot, then there's no advantage to signing him in terms of flexibility elsewhere in the draft.

"Except that's not right, uo. FG has Pearson with 35 present command and this:"

well, I know command and control aren't the same thing, but Pearson just doesn't walk anyone. at all. not in college, not in his pro debut. his tiny walk totals are one of the most impressive things on his statsline.

Just to be clear. This 2018 draft still has protected picks. We just get the benefit in 2019 which would make 2018 weak. 2019 strong in theory and budget if all is used.

Regarding Pearson and Warmoth: Scouting reports maybe wrong. Height, weight, FB velocity.
The FO was much higher on Deck McGuire than Da Box, if I recall correctly. I like to be fair and patient with draft picks. D McGuire's and J Harris's stuff did not develop I guess.

Presuming Singer required overslot in an amount the team wasn't willing to pay, don't draft him. That's what teams do.

Plus the following year, we got a lower pick for Singer and therefore a bit less money in relation to our pool.

HR for vladdy.

SRF with a nice 2nd outing in AAA.

Lots of good news on the farm tonight.  SRF had a good outing- 6 innings, 3 runs, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts- after a rough first inning.  Aledmys Diaz is in the lineup for New Hampshire (he's 0-2), but Vlad Jr. hit his 11th homer.  Dunedin has a lead early with Kevin Smith contributing a walk.  Lansing leads large (an alliteration and a player reference, hypobole!). 

Also notable on the farm:

- A boffo performance by Buffo (4 shutout innings so far)
- Lourdes playing the heavy (2/3 with a HR)
- Clemens 1/2 with a double -- in Kacy were wondering

Singer had agreed to a deal but it fell apart due to an injury/health concern that has never been made public.

It's great that teams recoup the pick for an unsigned player, but, assuming equal prospect value, you're better off with a player now than a pick a year from now.

Zach Logue is a guy you don't hear much about, but he had a decent first start in Dunedin today after getting a promotion from Lansing. Logue was picked in the 9th round last June, and has progressed rapidly from Bluefield to Vancouver to Lansing and now Dunedin. Now has a career ERA of 2.12, WHIP of 1.06, and has a K:BB ratio of 81:20. Just turned 22 last month.

Bo is on a hot streak now. go Bo go.