Don't have a good feeling about this series.


(hey it worked in Philly)

the red SUX.

I don't like'em.

I missed the off-day on Thursday.  With three games in Boston, a day off, three games in Detroit and another day off, an 8 man pen is really overkill, especially after 3 good starts in a row.

I'm not sure we've spent enough time talking about the fact that our 35yr old catcher played SS and looked....pretty, pretty good.

Or that the DH looked like a perfectly cromulent 8th RP.

heh @ 92-93



Luckily we avoid the insanely hot Betts at least for the first game, and maybe more, as he has "left side tightness".

Today's matchup, with last-calendar-year stats:

3B Donaldson 136wrc+ --- DH Martinez 161wrc+
1B Smoak 129wrc+ ------- LF Benintendi 113wrc+
RF Hernandez 117wrc+ --- 1B Moreland 112wrc+
SS Solarte 108wrc+ ----- 2B Nunez 105wrc+
LF Martin 94wrc+ ------- 3B Devers 100wrc+
DH Morales 86wrc+ ------ SS Bogaerts 93wrc+
CF Pillar 82wrc+ ------- CF Bradley 83wrc+
C Maile 82wrc+ --------- RF Holt 83wrc+
2B Travis 60wrc+ ------- C Vazquez 62wrc+

RH Sanchez 103era- ----- LH Price 88era-

This season only:

C Maile 130wrc+ ------ 1B Moreland 176wrc+
1B Smoak 124wrc+ ----- DH Martinez 167wrc+
SS Solarte 121wrc+ --- RF Holt 139wrc+
RF Hernandez 108wrc+ - LF Benintenti 131wrc+
CF Pillar 107wrc+ ---- SS Bogaerts 127wrc+
3B Donaldson 99wrc+ -- 3B Devers 87wrc+
LF Martin 73wrc+ ----- 2B Nunez 61wrc+
DH Morales 47wrc+ ---- CF Bradley 50wrc+
2B Travis 46wrc+ ----- C Vazquez 23wrc+

RH Sanchez 95era- ----- LH Price 93era-

Much as I find the idea of Martin as a super utility player an interesting one, I'd far rather see Pompey get some playing time. The rest of this season should be spent figuring out who has a role on the 2020 team (or whenever the team starts to try to win again). I don't hold out great hopes for Pompey any more, but between the switch-hitting, the base running and the defence he doesn't have to hit a ton to be a useful player (even as a 4th outfielder).

Pompey has 5 homers in 80 at-bats this season (one was in a suspended game and hasn't yet been counted).  I'd love to see him given an extended opportunity, but that isn't likely to happen. 

I've resigned myself to Morales being given plenty of chances despite his ineffectiveness.  His ground-ball rate is up to 50% this year, and his line drive rate is down to 13%.  He was bad last year, and there's every reason to believe he will be as bad overall or worse in 2018. 

Once Diaz returns, the club has the option of going with a Diaz/Travis middle infield and Solarte DHing (on most days), but using Solarte at third and occasionally at second base to give Travis and Donaldson a day off.

Complicated by the Martin sports utility, and the eventual (potential?) return of Tulo. There's really no place for Morales, either in attempting to contend or in developing players. It's a shame. I like the guy, thought he would be better (I only caught glimpses of this vision thing, if he has eye problems that were correctable, that's a bad miscommunication on his part with the team, or miss from medical staff). Seriously, I hope they do eye tests as part of physicals, because it's essential as a hitter.

Much as I find the idea of Martin as a super utility player an interesting one, I'd far rather see Pompey get some playing time. The rest of this season should be spent figuring out who has a role on the 2020 team (or whenever the team starts to try to win again). I don't hold out great hopes for Pompey any more, but between the switch-hitting, the base running and the defence he doesn't have to hit a ton to be a useful player (even as a 4th outfielder).

I like the thought of Martin as a utility player to wind down his career - but maybe providing more catching mentorship than playing time around the field. Definitely agree with Nigel's statement.

Maybe I can watch this series on TV even,

Unrelated, being blocked from starting my post because I posted within 45 seconds in another thread is pretty tedious as anti-spam goes. Maybe it needs to kick in after complaints or more than 1 other post.

Mike, I agree that that isn't likely to happen. Ever since Gibbons' criticisms of Pompey's defence a couple of spring trainings ago it was my sense that he and Pompey don't see eye to eye. That criticism is pretty hilarious in retrospect given the corner OF defence that the team has chosen to employ the last two years.

I still want Pompey to keep hitting for a nice solid stretch in AAA, tbh. I didn't really want him called up when he was. I really want to see him put in a nice healthy, sustained run in AAA.

Overall I think there has been a little too much yo-yo transactions between Pompey, Urena, Smith Jr, etc. These guys need reps either at Buffalo or the big show.

You know who might be a good LF option against LHP?? VGJr.

Not having Martin behind the plate and instead out in left field has not been working out this inning.....

Donaldson comes up lame.

That didn't look good. Looked like the kinda nothing thing that sticks around a month.

Sanchez makes me sad.

Put Osuna in the rotation, make Sanchez the closer. Osuna has more pitches and better command.

Body language looks sad. :(

Who will replace Donaldson? Urena has been doing well in Buffalo. SSS

Lots more player movement on MLB Traders the last couple of days. Will we see something like a Martin trade to a contender?

If the Martin playing all over the diamond thing is a plan to showcase Maile, Jays might want to get a different plan.

Gotta like Miele more than Martin going forward. Assuming the Jays are done competing in 2018.

hey our 3B is hurt.

too bad there's no 3B in the system to take a look at.

Our best prospect is a 3B. But I agree it is best we don't use his name. That discussion is usually pointless ie always repeated by several posters. However they are excellent opinions.

Earlier I was going to post that, that guy ain't coming up until Donaldson is traded or out for the season with an injury. 3B belongs to Donaldson, he has earned that privilege. I remember John Buck kept his 1st string catcher role so that he could get a good contract. He hit 20 Hr. JP Arencibia had to be the backup. He hit 3 Hr in his 1st game I believe. Practically no players do that.

I expect Solarte to take over 3B. Until Donaldson comes back.

I must mention that the Buck/Arencibia time share happened when we were out of the race. I think.

Unrelated, being blocked from starting my post because I posted within 45 seconds in another thread is pretty tedious as anti-spam goes. Maybe it needs to kick in after complaints or more than 1 other post.

Or we can just remove it, as I just did. :)

That was not the Aaron Sanchez that pitched here in 2014, 2015 or in 2016. It wasn’t even the Aaron Sanchez who tried to pitch here in 2017, health issues aside. Until that Aaron Sanchez returns, the Jays are going nowhere.

Tim Lopes played 3rd base in Buffalo today. 303 average and 350+ OBP.

They're saying Donaldson's leg isn't too bad, maybe he just misses a game or two. Solarte is the likely guy to play 3B for a few days if needed. Lopes isn't likely to provide much at the mlb level at this point. He got off to a crazy hot streak at the start of the season, but since May 2nd, he's hitting .238, and has no virtually power. Even if Donaldson is out for a month or so, I would say you'd see Solarte at 3B, Diaz at SS once healthy, Travis at 2B, and Morales the most common DH, unless Grichuk starts to hit, in which case you could DH Granderson vs righties, with an OF of Hernandez, Pillar and Grichuk. Pearce is still a fair ways away from a return. Once he's back, if Morales hasn't gotten things figured out, I think he gets released.

Agreed DG. Was just throwing out the Lopes event for no good reason. Lopes isn’t on the 40 man, if that is important at this point. Hoping to see some real changes to the team in the next weeks.

I've seen somewhere that Morales is almost blind in his leading eye. The glasses didn't work out.
They should send him down for laser surgery followed by a long rehab at AAA.

Competing was always going to be contingent on Donaldson putting on MVP numbers.
We're not seeing that at all.

Sanchez is relearning to pitch without blisters. It looks like it's going to take a while.

ugly, you are counting on Osuna pitching for the Jays again?

I don't see it. Even when the investigation is complete (and to be fair to Osuna, I guess we can't assume anything but it seems there's little doubt he's going to be prosecuted). Once the suspension is served, it's doubtful, IMO, that the organization will keep him around. It might not play out that way, maybe the organization gives him a second chance, if somehow the facts aren't as awful as they appear. I think (rightly so) the Jays would respect the victims of domestic violence by taking a stand here.

My guess: He serves a long suspension, the Jays quietly but aggressively try and trade him, and some team, seeing the difficult decision willing to overlook or give him "a second chance" will swoop in, and he's gone at the trade deadline, or early in the off-season.

obviously possible....but I'm not gonna write off his career just yet.

"I've seen somewhere that Morales is almost blind in his leading eye."

I've seen somewhere there is a sasquatch.

Well he's a switch hitter so does that mean he is blind in both eyes?

The dominant eye does not change, but consider that it might explain why he's lost the ability to hit from the left side, which used to be his best side, while still posting decent numbers from the right side.

It's domestic abuse and rarely gets to criminal court as the case is usually settled in family law.
Although, it's possible that there is enough evidence to go to trial without the victim's testimony.
I'm not expecting Osuna to pitch for the Jays again, but  he's definitively tradeable unless a Canadian criminal conviction muddies the water.

I really lament that the FO did not move Donaldson & Osuna last July as some of us had urged - the rebuild could have been given a major boost.

Osuna's career is not over. The sporting world forgives just about anything... at least anything involving the abuse of women.

I mean, there are people who still think Barry Bonds or Pete Rose is the biggest criminal in the game.

However, a change of scenery is pretty much required for the assailant to 'move on'.

Look at Jose Reyes.

Osuna WILL probably continue his career, but it will likely be somewhere else.

As a Blue Jays fan, I say 'good'. I don't want to have to turn off the game whenever we get to the 9th in a closer situation.

"I really lament that the FO did not move Donaldson & Osuna last July as some of us had urged - the rebuild could have been given a major boost."


Unfortunately I don't think that was ever an option, especially with attendance being as good as it was last season. Now that attendance has declined significantly, and will likely continue to decline, Rogers might be more open to it heading into 2019, but clearly too little too late when it comes to Donaldson. If he's moved at the deadline it will be for scraps relative to his value, most likely. He's hurt, performance is down, and he only has a month and a half to get on a hot streak/get healthy. My guess is the Jays will eat up the remainder of his deal if it improves the return, but it's difficult to see teams giving up anything significant.

Osuna is just really bad timing/luck/circumstances.

A strong majority of those tickets were sold long before the season started. The 2017 Jays that could not get to .500, and spent all of July five to ten games under it, were not getting a walk-up crowd.

Not trading Josh and Osuna wasn't just an attendance thing.

Outside observers thought this was a team that had a real shot at contending for a playoff spot. Vegas had us at 81.5 wins, same as the Mariners, and only 3 wins behind the Angels. Fangraphs had us favoured for the 2nd WC, at almost 40%.

Management of any team is loathe to start a selling spree when they're contenders.

So it seems some fans, some media, the FO and ownership KNOW that a losing record hurts attendance in the prime summer months of July, August and September. I expect that TV viewership is affected the same way.

With this knowledge the team's financial departments will probably conclude that the income/revenue is lower because of the losing record. That is assuming the revenue/income is actually lower. I have always admitted that I don't fully understand the baseball stats/numbers. So strange finance numbers to me during a losing season can happen. I am not saying that anyone is lying.

The other side is expenses. Payroll. A lower payroll with a losing record is better IMO. July 16, 2017 losing record 42-49.

I am currently thinking that payroll could go down for next year. Makes sense to me, but that does not matter.

Agreed MG. He gets a QO. He is with the Jays if he accepts or rejects and cannot get signed. We sign him at a discount like M Moustakas. If he plays well in 2019 can keep him or trade him.

Josh won't re-sign here. With Vlad taking over at 3rd, Toronto will not be a good place to rebuild his value.

imo josh gets all of his rental trade value back the second he goes on any type of run in the next 2 months.

hypobole you may or may not have misinterpreted my post. I am saying that he rejects the QO lets say $20 mil. IF no other team wants to sign him, like the M Moustakas situation. He gets resigned here for $12mil for 1 year.

I accept that I am painting an imaginary situation, but it happened to Moustakas.

Vlad belonging to the Jays complicates everything.

To me Donaldson has been a class act while in Toronto. He tries hard. If he is here and healthy, he could have a good season. Maybe Vlad outhits good Donaldson.

Next question: Can we trade him? As early as ST or May 15? When he is doing well. Honestly, I thought that he would have a good/healthy season this year. Next year if my imaginary situation actually happens ..... let me tell everyone that I will be constantly expecting him to get injured. Sorry for the negativity.

Maybe we can't assume, and even if we do, it makes no difference.

But Josh would think long and hard before resigning here with Vlad potentially taking over 3rd base. Definitely not an ideal situation if he wants to regain value.

In what surely seems to be the making of a lost season, Gibbons' primary goal now seems to be to acquiesce to Russ Martin's desire to forge his late career transmogrification into Tony Phillips. Solarte will be starting at shortstop, on purpose, on a roster where the team's third baseman is hurt. Martin will man the hot corner in a bid to keep his 600 OPS in the lineup.

Yes Estrada is a flyball pitcher (for the 4-5 innings he's in the game)... Yes Urshela is nobody's idea of a starting shortstop... Yes, yes, yes, yes.

Let's hope Kendrys gets to pitch the 9th.

Seriously, this commitment to keeping Martin and his .161/.293/.315 slash line in the lineup day after day is mind-boggling. We would have been better off keeping super sub Ryan Goins around at this rate - the .237/.286/.356 he put up last year looks Mike Trout-esque in comparison.

Goins has gotten into 25 games with the Royals this year, but in a fun turn, has played fewer innings at SS than Russ Martin. He's also hit worse than Martin.

On the other hand, Goins is being paid $19,500,000 less than Russ, so there's that.

I feel there is a valid question to be asked about Osuna - is dealing him actually, in any way, addressing his assault charges?  I suppose it could be considered an additional consequence, but really, would it actually be wrong for the org to say something like "this kid made a terrible mistake.  We look forward to helping him grow as a person in order to never make such a mistake again?"  Dealing him feels like passing the buck to me.   I'm all for MLB giving him the appropriate consequence after his charges are dealt with, and then for closing the consequence book and moving forward. 

And it's not like baseball has an immaculate morale record right now - they clearly exploit young talent in an egregious fashion, and owners routinely extort millions from local communities to avoid relocation. 

Aledmys Diaz is in New Hampshire, and so hopefully this shall pass soon. 

Does anyone think we're actually going to make the playoffs?

I mean, over and above all the internal issues we have, 29 of our remaining 108 games are vs the 3 best teams in all of baseball.

If Gibby wants to have Russell play centre field, I really couldn't give a rat's behind. Actually, I'd probably be more inclined to watch the game just to see that.

Kudos to Gibby for fielding the best starting nine the Jays can trot out there with their current active roster. The flack in this thread is being grossly misdirected.

yeah, I am talk happy to have a manager that doesn't fall victim to small sample sizes.

over any decent sample size, Martin's stats clearly put him in the starting lineup.

in fact, even in this year's small sample, Martin deserves to be in the lineup today:

healthy "infielders" wrc+

1.Solarte 117
2.Martin 71
3.Travis 51
4.Urshela 23

of the AAA guys who have had cups of coffee, only urena has put up better numbers.

OK, I see that Chuck did.  I tend to agree with him that Gibbons has his share of the responsibility- the longing for the 8 man pen predates this GM's administration.

How many teams don't have an 8 man pen?

of course it's probably time we noticed that Maile has stopped hitting, too.

When i googled "8 man bullpen" the results were either teams using them or bloggers ranting against them.

Hypobole, In the AL, currently BAL, BOS, DET, MIN run with 7 man pens.  In the NL, NYM, PIT, STL and ARI.  8 teams total, including some well-run orgs, and some less well-run.  clearly, we fans hate it, but it's here to stay. 

the Wikipedia list of current major league rosters seems to me the easiest source of this info. 

Thanks jerjapan. Those numbers would fluctuate, I'm guessing many teams go back and forth between 7 and 8.

But it seems 8 man pens are becoming more and more prevalent, with MLB managers, as usual, following Gibby's lead. :)

I wonder how many teams like to use an 8 man pen because they are able to cycle through a handful of arms with options earning at or near the major league minimum, whereas even the most undistinguished of bench bats with a little tread on the tires typically earns north of the minimum. Nothing stopping them from shuttling position players between AAA and the majors, of course, but it seems (anecdotally at least) less common to mix and match with the last bat/glove on the bench in the same way. Of course, having said that the home team has given us looks at Alford, Smith, Pompey, Urena, Ngoepe, Gurriel and Urshela already this year, so maybe I'm all wet.

I think it's more to do with not wanting starters, with few exceptions, to go 3rd time through the order.

Chris Sale's 214.1 IP led all of baseball last year. The year prior there were 8 pitchers who threw 215-230. Seems to keep going down, with relievers, of course, picking up those extra innings.

it also has to do with the lack of many out and out DH's, I think.

From today's FG chat

Bork: Will Russell Martin end up playing all 9 positions this year?

Meg Rowley: As a writer of baseball words, dear god, I hope so.

Weird that a team claiming defensive issues as a reason to keep a top prospect down is then doing this, but…

I'm calling it - Estrada is toast as an mlb starter.

Yeah I think the Estrada bubble has burst.

Hell of a trade, though. Estrada was a big part of the 2015/16 playoff teams.

ha - jays broadcast is now showing video replay of vladdy's homers.

says a lot about this season.

God forbid rogers lets us see him live, of course.

I think it's more to do with not wanting starters, with few exceptions, to go 3rd time through the order.

Happ excepted, this team doesn't seem to have a starter who can make it through the order even once without incident. I think that's got something to do with the 8 man bullpen.

Loup is having a sneaky good season.

Loup is having a sneaky good season.

Loup and Oh have certainly been the two best relievers on the team, if we're only counting people not on the suspended list, and Loup has probably been a tiny bit better than Oh.

well Loup was good last year, and has been most years. he's just good.

watching Bautista do well with the Mets, I have to give props to AA for giving him a chance to earn an mlb contract. just a good guy. player's like him for a reason.

I think Tepera is a much better reliever than Loup.

Loup to me has always been boringly average, and I've hated how in recent years he has not been tough on lefties. It seems this year he has mixed in his cutter more and used his change-up less and this is keeping the homer-runs down.

Pillar is another Jays player who has come back to earth this month:

April: 143 wRC+
May: 73 wRC+

It seems this year he has mixed in his cutter more and used his change-up less and this is keeping the homer-runs down.

Not just this year. Loup has always been much better than Tepera at keeping the ball in the park. Even with the weird blip in 2015-16, when he allowed 8 of his 22 career HRs against, he's allowed HRs roughly half as often as Tepera (22 HRs in 304 IP for Loup, 20 HRs in 155 IP for Tepera.)

watching Bautista do well with the Mets

With an RBI double and a walk in his first two plate appearances tonight, he's hitting .462/.611/.538 as a Met.

I dunno. I don't think he can keep that up.

I wasn't really trying to compare Tepera's home run rate to Loup's. I just like Tepera better as a reliever overall.

The comment about regarding Loup and the cutter goes as follows:

2015: 4.46 ERA, HR/9 1.28, CT% 0, CH% 20.5
2016: 5.02 ERA, HR/9 1.26, CT% 0, CH% 14.6%
2017: 3.75 ERA, HR/9 0.62, CT% 10.2%, CH% 14.2%
2018: 3.00 ERA, HR/9 0.43, CT% 15.5%, CH% 7.6%

To me this seems like a trend.

Career as RP (before tonight)

Osuna (23): 223.0ip, 67era-, 1.8war65
Oh (35): 163.1ip, 66era-, 1.3war65
Clippard (33): 674.0ip, 74era-, 1.0war65
Biagini (28): 100.0ip, 81era-, 0.8war65
Loup (30): 303.0ip, 80era-, 0.7war65
Tepera (30): 155.0ip, 78era-, 0.6war65
Barnes (28): 98.0ip, 82era-, 0.6war65
Axford (35): 494.2ip, 91era-, 0.5war65
Petricka (29): 186.1ip, 97era-, 0.4war65


2017-2018

Osuna (23): 79.1ip, 75era-, 2.2war65
Tepera (30): 103.2ip, 79era-, 0.8war65
Loup (30): 78.2ip, 81era-, 0.6war65
Barnes (28): 84.1ip, 80era-, 0.5war65
Oh (35): 83.2ip, 84era-, 0.5war65
Biagini (28): 32.1ip, 101era-, 0.4war65
Clippard (33): 86.1ip, 101era-, 0.2war65
Axford (35): 44.0ip, 117era-, -0.2war65
Petricka (29): 34.0ip, 153era-, -1.1war65

To me this seems like a trend.

Sure, but the trend is getting back to where he was in 2012, 2013, 2014. If you add those years to your chart 2015-16 begin to look like outliers rather than the place he's coming from.

I personally would think hitters made an adjustment to how they faced Loup after a few years and he failed to make adjustments himself for two years. Either way I'm glad he's changed something and it seems to be working.

Well, 2015 is the really strange year (he spent most of 2016 in AAA) and I think much of it had to do with Loup pitching much more often against RH batters (who hit all 6 HRs he allowed that year) than LH batters. It's pretty weird way to use the guy when you consider that Loup throws the ball from somewhere near first base, but as I recall Gibbons was trying to protect Brett Cecil from RH batters. I do remember complaining about it at the time!

But really, in the final analysis - these are two pretty generic relief pitchers. Better than Danny Barnes or Joe Biagini, suitable for everyday use...

I think one reason Loup is underappreciated is that the years he's been good, the team's been bad. The 2 playoff years were Loup's worst.

Just checked the box score and am thinking - there's the draft, the July trade deadline, the farm and of course the amusing endless "free whoever is hot this week" posters to keep me from complete disinterest.

Gregor Chisholm @gregorMLB
Asked Gibbons about #BlueJays shaky D “I don’t feel like talking about that. This is our team. We go out there and play hard every night. I don’t care what anybody else thinks. People need to look at it objectively and if they’re smart enough baseball people they’ll understand.”

What does that quote mean about smart enough baseball people they'll understand? Is he suggesting they are actually better D than people think? Or is he suggesting it is as good as anyone can expect given the management's asset protection approach combined with injuries and drifting out of contention? Something else?

Solarte is not a shortstop. Martin is not a third baseman. Hernandez is fielding poorly but they need his bat badly. Granderson is not as fast as he once was.

Gibby could field a better defensive lineup, but he's trying to put some offense together.

Which makes me think that with the prospects graduating soon, none of them being exceptional with the glove, they will probably need a couple of high strikeout starters rather than groundballers.

Shulman and Martinez were talking about the hardship of being in the AL East and thus having to disproportionately play teams in the AL East. But isn't this really only a hardship for everyone but NY and Boston, having to play a combined 36 games against those two powerhouses? NY and Boston themselves have the grind of 18 against each other, but after that it's pretty smooth sailing in the other 54 games against the three weak sisters.

I believe this was said in the context of Boston having completed such a large number of their AL East games already, and this being advantageous to them.

Right, the Yankees can't be worried about having to play more games against Tampa, Toronto and Baltimore.

Most of the early hot hitters have cooled down now, including Hanley Ramirez and Didi Gregorius and Mookie Betts, to some degree.

Shulman was also talking about Donaldson having no problem getting a 2 year contract if he gets hot in the last 2 months. What a fall from the extension talks when the Jays and Donaldson weren't in the same ballpark.

Chuck, the Al East has been the strongest division for a number of years. Because of the unbalanced schedule teams in that  division have a harder time than say Al central ones  because it has been the weakest. A good record there isn't necessarily indicative of a good team. Even teams finishing last in the ale  would be competitive for other divisions in some years.I  really hate the unbalanced schedule.

Scott there's an interesting recent article about the disappearance of the sinker ( say goodbye to).
People are hitting it harder, itsnjustbrhe natural trend at the moment. So many pitchers have doing well by using their best pitch more using a sinker less and pitching up. 

"Most of the early hot hitters have cooled down now, including Hanley Ramirez and Didi Gregorius and Mookie Betts, to some degree."

Mookie Betts has a 218 WRC+ in May. He has been the second best hitter in baseball after Trout this month.

Loup is a perfectly fine middle reliever. Not sure why people are so hard on him.

It's weird. Going into the season, the Jays had four major leaguers with real trade value: Donaldson, Osuna, Sanchez, and Stroman. I don't think any of them are tradable at this point (Not because teams wouldn't want them but because it would be trading at lowest point).

For those interested in the FG story concerning the decline of the seamer/sinker mentioned by lexomatic, here's the link

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/go-see-the-two-seamer-before-its-gone/

May partially explain the struggles of Sanchez and Stroman and the effectiveness of Happ.

It sure doesn't help pitchers who rely on two-seamers to have an ineffective ground ball defence behind them.  Ground balls hit against the Blue Jays this year result in a slash line of .270/.270/.301, against the league as a whole, it is .247/.247/.268.  Biagini's outing yesterday would be a case in point. 

wrt the Gibby quote, I think he followed it up with a comment that Hernandez should be DH but his hands are tied with Morales...but I can't find it right now.

I think the one consistent theme in the position player moves that the front office has made in the past two seasons is to sign players whose best position is DH/1B but who can also kind of, sort of, play a defensive position. The profile of that kind of player explains their cost effectiveness. It also contributes significantly to terrible team defence over the past two years.

ayj - that is music to my ears if true. please find that quote if you can.

I'd prefer they focus on Teoscar as a DH going forward, and not count on him to be a defensive player.

I thought I saw it in my Twitter feed. Can't find it now. Twitter's a beast to search effectively. Hopefully someone can back me up on this or we can just chalk it up to a dream I had.

this it?

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-notebook-martin-open-playing-shortstop/

“I mean he’s got room for improvement,” Gibbons acknowledged. “We know what he is right now, but he’ll get better.” Asked what Hernandez is right now, Gibbons offered this understatement: “Well, we know he’s not polished.”

no. I'm starting to wonder if someone fake-quoted Gibby in that stream of post-game tweets. (like what Gibby meant to or wanted to say)

Chuck, the Al East has been the strongest division for a number of years.

Yes, but Shulman and Martinez were talking like it still is. It's not clear to me this is the case.

thank god for replay to save us from the usual fenway ump BS.

Only able to follow on Gameday, but there have been what seem to be some...interesting baserunning plays. Morales caught stealing as Travis looked at strike 3 seems to be the Jays returning the favour Boston did them when JBJ got caught at home on what must have been a wild pitch or passed ball.

Travis has to swing at the pitch that led to the DP. It wasn't a baserunning error.

Travis has to swing at the pitch that led to the DP.

My gosh yes. It wasn't even borderline, it was a comfortable strike. With two of them already.

It's not clear to me this is the case.

The division seems a little top-heavy at the moment, although the two best teams are pretty impressive. The AL West and NL East are more interesting groups to me. One lousy team and four decent-to-good teams in each.

although the two best teams are pretty impressive.

Extremely impressive, which is a 36-game pain for the three weaker teams and only an 18-game pain for each of NY and Boston.

Is Gaviglio our second best starter (behind Happ)?

TB is 23-15 in games that aren't against BOS and NYY.

we are pretty disgraceful. this sucks.

TB is 23-15 in games that aren't against BOS and NYY.

Because they have starting pitchers that can go on consecutive days.

Gaviglio seems a decent twice through the order starter so far. Don't try a third time.

Over Gaviglio's career so far, the fade seems to be at about 75 pitches.  He seems quite efficient normally and so this means 5-6 innings.  You can use that. 

TB is 23-15 in games that aren't against BOS and NYY.

A non-sarcastic answer this time.

I concede that I may well be underestimating TB. They have a long history of seemingly over-performing with, what appears on paper, to be less than stellar talent. Their 106 OPS+ (4th in the league) does seem high. But until they start performing poorly, I have no right to assert that they are a weak team.

Don't look now but Morales has gotten half 11/23 hits this season since may 11.

If by miracle, Morales is still with the club, he needs to play winter ball somewhere. Travis too, probably.

Garcia was pretty good the last time around. Again, the defense doesn't help him.

As much as it sucks for us, the Rays and O's to be in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, it going to suck for one of them as well.

If the season ended today, the Yankees would have to play a wild card game despite having a better record than every other division winner.

A home wild card game. We had one of those and it wasn't half-bad.

Yeah plus NYY and Boston gets 6 months of exciting games and we get this. (Of course we’d be terrible in any division right now).

I too hate the unbalanced schedule. NYY and Boston significantly outspent everyone for a long time (though a couple of others have ramped up now) and I suspect the Jays would have made the playoffs a couple of more times in the last 25 years if they had been in another division...or at least they would have been a lot more interesting in September

Yeah, and the lucky team that manages to grab the 2nd wildcard will (probably) play either in Yankee Stadium vs Luis Severino or Fenway vs Chris Sale.

Yeah, sour grapes.

I hate whining about unbalanced schedule - it is what it is, you don't hear fans complaining about it when their teams are winning - BTW, the jays & yankees payrolls are in the same ballpark this year and I also don't remember Jays fans complaining when the Jays had the highest payrolls in 92/93.

2017 jays crushed my hopes of a top 10 pick by winning enough games in September (a perennial complaint of mine in the JP era) - I'm hoping this year is different - it would be especially sweet if the Orioles can come back to finnish ahead of the jays returning a favour from last year.

As far as the draft this year, it's pretty weak at the top. Being a pick or 2 higher than our #12 will probably make little difference. It might, but probably get a similar quality player.

A few Blue Jays hitters in May:

Morales .233/.291/.411 6BB 15K

Hernandez .212/.245/.404 3BB 25K

Pillar .235/.277/.333 7BB 22K

Granderson .167/.313/.273 12BB 29K

I couldn't agree more -- as hard as it is to see the Jays lose repeatedly to good to great Yankees and Sox teams, I'd rather seem them frequently and not make the playoffs than see more the AL Central/West or (shudder) more interleague games.

During AA's time the 2nd WC came in. NYY, Boston and TB may have been strong enough to grab both. But Boston had 2 losing years 76 wins or so.

I am not sure of the details contributing to our losing. No Donaldson and Martin. The rotation was Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman, Hutch and Happ pitching well in 2014. Jay's 83 wins, 2nd WC 88. Food poisoning to Jannsen ... A Sanchez becomes closer. Could have been closer.

Baltimore 96 wins. LAA 98 wins. Very confusing. LAA and Baltimore suck in 2015.

[A]s hard as it is to see the Jays lose repeatedly to good to great Yankees and Sox teams, I'd rather seem them frequently and not make the playoffs than see more the AL Central/West or (shudder) more interleague games.
I'm pretty sick of the unbalanced schedule myself. I think it sucks when worse teams have an advantage in success year after year. I'm sure their FOs would like the attendance boost too .Whatever, the league isn't going to change this for a while.

Does any site keep track of hit-and-run plays?

Jay's current record 25-31. Seattle 33-22, 2nd WC.

I have given up on this year. Our stars are injured or/and not performing at the level needed.

This is hard on the emotions. I expect next year to also be weak. But it is too early to give up on 2019.

I'm a Braves fan now.

Goodbye! It's been an experience.

Good for you UO. Just in time for the draft.

http://milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=624512#/career/R/hitting/2018/ALL

Joel Sherman thinks J.A. Happy is a more attractive trade chip that Cole Hamels.

That's partly why I was asking about H&R stats. I know Earl Weaver hated the it because of those very things you mentioned.

Olney and Law discuss Vlad. Starts around 7:30 in and about a 4 minute listen.

My takeaway is that despite executives from other teams thinking they should wait, he'll be up sooner because the Jays have to sell tickets.

Sorry, here's the Link

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=23658758

Would ticket sales improve? It's a losing team no matter what and setting unrealistic expectations don't help in the long run. I'm still planning to catch a game this summer, but if they bring Vladdy up just to sell tickets, I'm staying home.

I could see a whole marketing campaign centered around a new core, but not this year.
Bringing Guerrero now, just dilutes next year's expectations.
I don't think he needs to suffer through an humiliating second half.

Is Gibby back next year? Both NYY and Boston  have put young managers at the head of their teams as part of their rebuild. It would be weird not to do the same. Gibby's vets are all gone now.

Vlad will sell tickets when arrives. How many -Ii have no clue.

But he won't be up just to sell tickets; this is not a Tim Tebow dog and pony show. The kids hit tool is major league ready. Front offices care about the extra year of control, but 99% of the paying customers don't.

The MLB WPA leaders so far: Verlander, Hader, Scherzer, deGrom, Betts.  In the year of the K, I guess it's not surprising.

on the topic of the "tough AL East", imo we and the Orioles are making the top 2 teams look much better than they actually are.

Yankees are 6-6 vs the Jays and Orioles, so no, they haven't made the Yankees look better at all.

Red Sox, yeah, they're 13-3 vs Jay/Orioles.

We will make the Yankees look better when we trade Happ to them in July.

"I'm a Braves fan now."

Interesting - is this the same Braves team that traded stars Andrelton Simmons,Craig kimbrel,Justin Upton,Jason Heyward,Shelby Miller etc., did a full blown teardown and rebuild,didn't promote superprospect Ronald Acuna even when he was tearing up the minors in 2017 and optioned Acuna to start 2018 to gain an extra year even though he was the best player in camp - asking for a friend who doesn't believe in such things.

May was a disaster. They swing back in June, because I think they were the absolute worst team in May or close.

What do you want to see in June?

I'll start with Oh closing some games against the bottom of the lineup.

Scottt I  think Arizona was the only team bad enough to be in the conversation.

To add to 85bluejay's excellent post, there was this Hardball Times story recently:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/how-long-is-the-average-playoff-window/

Teams during their playoff runs usually get older, But, as the article points out:

"On the other hand, the 2009-13 Atlanta Braves got significantly younger over the course of three playoff appearances and a one-game Wild Card miss. The 2009 Braves were led by 32-year-old Javier Vazquez, 37-year-old Chipper Jones and 36-year-old Derek Lowe, but also had a brace of young talent, including Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Brian McCann and Martin Prado. Four years later, McCann was still around and surrounded by a group of talented newcomers like Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran — all 23 or younger. Vazquez, Jones and Lowe all had retired; the main veterans were Tim Hudson and Dan Uggla. A youngster named Craig Kimbrel was getting Cy Young votes.

In hindsight, what happened next is baffling. That 2013 Braves team looks like a dynasty in the making, and they still did on August 31, 2014. Melvin Upton Jr. was having a bad year, but the 72-65 Braves stood three games back in the Wild Card race with a month to go, on pace for a decent, if uninspiring, 85 wins. Then a disastrous September — including a 1-11 skid — led to the firing of GM Frank Wren and the dismantling of his youthful core. The ensuing rebuild was much faster than average, but did the Braves give up too soon?"

This is certainly not strategy uo, (and to be fair, many other people) would have agreed with.

Show your work. Last I checked, the 2018 versions Yankees and Red Sox are better than many of the teams during their extended run of dominance. Mookie Betts' WAR /650PA this year is off the charts! (just kidding and poking fun)

Both of Yanks/Sox of 2018 compare favorably to the 2015/2016 Jays teams.

Oh, and another recent article finally answered a long standing question. Jays drafted Kris Bryant in 2010, but didn't sign him. Never saw anything authoritative on what he was asking or what the Jays offered, although someone here posted an amount a while back.

It turns out, as Gregor Chisholm points out, the two sides never did get around to discussing a deal. From Bryant:

"I feel [the Blue Jays] had other priorities in terms of other guys they picked and trying to get those people signed, and then they work on guys who are tougher signs later on," Bryant said."

Sadly, one of the Jays biggest priorities back then was inking Dickie Joe Thon. Oh, well.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/blue-jays-drafted-but-didnt-sign-kris-bryant/c-277950060

Front offices care about the extra year of control, but 99% of the paying customers don't.

Then thank god they don’t listen to the fans. Blowing through a year of control- in a down season- on a youngster who would benefit from defensive seasoning is nonsensical.

I don't recall AA being overly concerned about years of control here. I remember him saying something like if they're ready we bring them up.

"Interesting - is this the same Braves team that traded stars Andrelton Simmons,Craig kimbrel,Justin Upton,Jason Heyward,Shelby Miller etc., did a full blown teardown and rebuild,didn't promote superprospect Ronald Acuna even when he was tearing up the minors in 2017 and optioned Acuna to start 2018 to gain an extra year even though he was the best player in camp - asking for a friend who doesn't believe in such things."

No, this is the Braves team that stopped dithering and hired a real GM.

Interesting to look at all those trades again, though. They blew it up good, even though they had a good team, and lost 5 years in order to make these changes:

A.Simmons >>> S.Newcomb
J.Heyward >>> D.Swanson
J.Upton >>> M.Fried
C.Kimbrel >>> M.Wisler

of course, blowing it up completely is still better than whatever the heck we're doing.

As for Acuna, portraying this 20yr old as slow-played is a bit strange.

He started last year in A+ and is in the bigs full time already. He missed most of 2016 to injury but was still up in MLB in his 4th pro year. In total he had 1106pa in milb, with AAA being the biggest chunk of that. And he never did anything close to what Vladdy is doing now in AA. Vladdy is already up over 1000pa in milb, and he's still in AA, and demolishing it like noone has before.

Thanks for that BBRef draft preview, Mike.

Notice the Jays have picked the highest WAR ever at #17 (Roy), #56 (Jimmy Key) and #79 (Johnny O). The list only goes to pick 104, though.

I assumed we also had the WAR leader at #106 with Dave Stieb, but I checked myself and realised I had assumed wrong - the guy picked there the year before Stieb is higher.

Anyone know who?

"Blowing through a year of control- in a down season- on a youngster who would benefit from defensive seasoning is nonsensical."

What I find nonsensical is the system that prevents fans from seeing the best young talent in the game so that billionaire owners might save a few million dollars in payroll commitments. I understand the system MLB operates under and I don't care, as a consumer and a fan I want to watch the best, most exciting players play. I also find the defensive seasoning argument hard to stomach as I watch the keystone cops take the field each game. Unless the Jays do not let Guerrero take infield, splitting time between DH and 3B for half a season is not going to set back his defensive development

I'd even argue that with the coaches and players available to him here at the MLB level, his defense would be better developed here than in the minors.

"No, this is the Braves team that stopped dithering and hired a real GM."

What moves has AA made to get the Braves where they are?

Trading Kemp for 4 players totalling 0 WAR (plus cash) and signing Jose to play 3rd base?

It looks like I got it.  It helped that I remembered 1979-81. 

Tim Raines it is, Mike.

Amazing a pick that low would yield 2 50+ WAR guys in back to back years.

AA was learning on the job. His mistakes cost him his job. That job was having 100% control, within parameters. The 100% control now belongs to Shapiro.

"What moves has AA made to get the Braves where they are?"

I believe he is responsible for about 1/4 of the current roster.

Thanks UO. I did not know that AA did that much for his current team.
He has learned that he has to produce so that he can get a 3 year extension on his current 4 year deal IMO.

"I believe he is responsible for about 1/4 of the current roster."

The best of those have been Ryan Flaherty and Shane Carle 0.4 fWAR and the total WAR for all the guys he's brought in is under 1. In almost all cases the type of drek pickups you would roast our FO for making.

I have no problems with dregs pickups, as long as they're paid peanuts and are easily moved on and off the roster. AA was always good at building up the bottom of the roster that way, and saving actual money for impact players.

But hey, the Braves aren't actually this good this year. But I'm happy for our boy Alex with the golden touch.

And just to be clear, I think AA will do a good job in Atlanta. He'll be able to handle Liberty Media's payroll parameters after working for Rogers, and like Dave Dombrowski, won't hesitate to trade his farm pieces when the time is right. Plus he won't have the issues Toronto has in attracting quality free agents.

But to place more than a smattering of the Braves current success on AA is just another false narrative.

He needs to know if his actual team is good or not. He has very high ideals but he must judge his team based on the standings. Teams over achieve and under achieve.

Has he learned any of this or will history repeat itself?

We should follow his drafting next week. I am sure it will be creative.

What I find nonsensical is the system that prevents fans from seeing the best young talent in the game so that billionaire owners might save a few million dollars in payroll commitments

No the point is why waste a year of control down the road when the team is hopefully competing again for a year like this one.

Not sure why some are saying “AA brought players up when they were ready” given the snider and arencibia flameouts and the dearth of impact position players over the last many years

Look at the players who have had the late April callups when they should have been up sooner. In most cases, it's the truly elite prospects.

Teams rarely play these games with guys they hope will be league average regulars at best.

Aledmys Diaz and Randal Grichuk are returning today.

Aledmys Diaz and Randal Grichuk are returning today.

So we're going to see one of the two .400 hitters from New Hampshire. ;)

Donaldson not in the lineup. I was expecting him to DH at least.

Oh, well. Morales in the cleanup spot it is.