Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Its Tough At The Top

Sean Reid Foley learned today that AAA hitters can take care of business if you can't hit your spots. He gave up eight runs in 2.1 innings. Buffalo lost but does scoring seven runs in the last four innings give them some hope? New Hampshire got home runs from Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr. but still lost. Randy Pondler came out of the woodwork to get the win for Dunedin. Lansing scored three in the ninth to come from behind and win.

Buffalo

Buffalo went down 11-1 in the middle of the sixth but rallied to lose only 11-8 by going to plan B. That involved getting Darnell Sweeney and Ian Parmley to shut down the Syracuse offense and getting the bats to come to life. In the sixth a triple by Richard Urena and a double by Danny Jansen got the offense going. In the eighth a single by Urena, and doubles by Rowdy Tellez and Jansen kept the line moving. In the ninth Dalton Pompey doubled and Jansen added his third double in four innings. It was too little, too late, but many of the Bisons hitters have not been hitting. Before this game the Torontonians, Pompey, Urena, Gurriel and Alford, all had bad batting averages. Pompey and Urena had a couple of hits each and Gurriel had one. One of Pompey's hits was an opposite field home run. The Bisons need those guys to get hot. With his three hits, Jansen's average is back up to .312. And Rowdy Tellez had two doubles, he is hitting .367 over his last eight games.

Sean Reid-Foley started but didn't last long. After a 1-2-3 first he gave up three runs in the second and five in the third. He was pulled after 2.1 innings. He threw 64 pitches, 37 strikes and 27 balls. As mentioned Darnell Sweeney and Ian Parmley each pitched a shutout inning with no hits.

New Hampshire

Josh DeGraaf made his first start of this year for New Hampshire and took the loss. He was charged with all four runs in a 4-3 loss. Two of the runs were unearned thanks to a Bo Bichette error. All three Fisher Cat runs came via the home run. Bo Bichette broke out of his slump with a 2-4 day including his second home run of the season. Vlad Jr hit his 9th home run and also had a 2-4 day. The Cats had seven hits with Bo and Vlad accounting for four of them. Cavan Biggio was 0-2 with two walks. The Fisher Cats did not have a hit after the fifth inning.

Dunedin

Randy Pondler was pitcher of the year for Bluefield last season but didn't get an assignment to Lansing to start this year. With pitchers being shuffled around he was sent to Dunedin to help out. Connor Eller started and went 2.1 shutout innings. Then Pondler entered and pitched 4.2 innings giving up one run. It wasn't outstanding as he had six hits and two walks but he punched out six.

The Jays got two runs in the first inning. Edward Pinto and Alberto Mineo both doubled then Riley Adams singled to make it 2-0. The Jays added three more in the sixth. A couple of walks were followed by a bases loading single by Kacy Clemens . A sac fly, a walk and a single from Josh Palacios made it 5-1 and that's how it ended. Mineo and Adams led the way with two hits each.

Lansing

Lansing's bullpen blew a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the eighth to leave the Lugnuts down 4-3 but they came back with three runs in the ninth to win 6-4. In the ninth inning, with runners on second and third, South Bend elected to walk Yeltsin Gudino to set up a bases loaded, one out, situation. Brandon Grudzielanek doubled to bring in two runs and give the Lugnuts a 5-4 lead. The sixth run scored on a bases loaded walk. Grudzielanek was 2-4 with three RBI. Brock Lundquist hit his ninth home run.

Maverik Buffo started and went six innings with nine K's. He gave up just one run but didn't get the win. Newest Lugnut, Claudio Custodio gave up three runs in his second inning of work.

3 Stars

3rd star: Danny Jansen

2nd star: Maverik Buffo

1st star: Brandon Grudzielanek

Boxes

Posted by Gerry on Thursday, May 24 2018 @ 09:36 PM EDT.

Its Tough At The Top | 100 comments | Create New Account

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John Northey - Thursday, May 24 2018 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#358444) #

So, late May who are leading the Jays minors in offence?

CA: Maile has the best OPS at 898 in the system - who'd have thunk? Next is Jansen at 869 - 298/417/452. In AA Patrick Cantwell is also over 800 with a 294/400/426 line.

1B/DH: Kacy Clemens is #1 at 945 (273/413/531) while #2 is Christian Williams at 804. Rowdy Tellez is having a poor start at 254/336/351 but his 687 OPS is over 100 points ahead of Morales.

IF: scary area in a good way... 3 over 1000 and covering 3 positions

3B: Vlad Guerrero Jr: 425/479/694 AA
2B: Cavin Biggio : 304/429/689 AA
SS: Kevin Smith: 373/425/675 (low A)

Sadly Bo Bichette isn't doing so well this year - just 244/321/366 in AA, of course at 20 that is great but given how he did the last 2 years it is disappointing.

OF: Brock Lundquist : 260/362/496 for an 858 in Low A at 22 - move him up to A+ and see if there is anything there ASAP.

Chavez Young is next for pure minor leaguers at 299/349/459 and the only other one over 800 for OPS. Pompey between A/AAA/majors is at 268/330/439 and is 5-0 for SB-CS.

stevieboy22 - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#358457) #

Bo Bichette is the kind of hitter that can pull his numbers up fast if he gets hot. Last year he proved he is no stranger to 4 hit games.

That being said, the thing we were hearing last year was, "wait until he sees AA pitching, then we will have a much better idea of if his approach can work at the major league level"...

The numbers aren't terrible for a 20 year old at AA. But certainly aren't as exciting as they looked last year.

Lots of time left this year!

Gerry - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#358462) #

Zach Logue has been promoted to Dunedin.

hypobole - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#358463) #

KLaws 2nd Mock 12. Toronto Blue Jays: Logan Gilbert, RHP, Stetson

Hearing more college arms with Toronto than anything else, although I think the Jays could be in on some prep bats like Naylor or Jarred Kelenic, and of course any of those college bats I have going ahead (Madrigal, India, Swaggerty).

PeterG - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#358464) #

Mock draft update from Jim Callis. Kelenic is the 7th different player I have seen projected to Jays in well known mocks over the past 3 weeks. It's wide open folks.

dan gordon - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#358482) #

Is Tristan Pompey a possibility for the Jays at #12? I've seen some earlier reports that had him going around there, but he's had a bit of an ankle injury.

hypobole - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#358483) #

I think Pompey would be more likely to go with our 2nd pick (#52) than #12.

Neither KLaw nor FG have him mocked 1st round (KLaw 30 picks, FG 43). KLaw personally ranks him #34, FG not in their top 50 rankings.

bpoz - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#358484) #

Peter G, your interest and posts on the draft are appreciated by me. Thank you. Are you considering the Int'l FA acquisitions?

I like Vlad as much as the rest of us. But his signing did put financial limits on the 2016 signings I believe. I am not sure of the details.

AA and this FO value the draft and the Int'l FA a lot. A Tinnish is the man given the Int'l responsibility.

Our farm has reaped the rewards of both FOs IMO.

hypobole - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#358485) #

Speaking of July 2 guys, what happened to Juan Meza?

Gerry - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#358486) #

Two HR's so far for Jason Leblebijian.

jerjapan - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#358490) #

And Urena with 2 doubles, Tellez with 2 walks and a hit, and McGuire finally having a good game offensively with 3 hits. I do still think Reese's last season offensively was a mirage, but remain hopeful he could be a quality defensive backup.

Taylor Guerrieri got roughed up in the start - I really don't know why he, or Petricka, didn't get the DFA that Ramirez got.

I seem to be J-Leb's only proponent round here, but I still genuinely like his skill set as a utility player, a role that is only increasing in value in this era of short starts and large bullpens.

PeterG - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#358492) #

bpoz, I will keep posting draft info as it becomes available. At this point, I have no idea whom the Jays will take but it will not be Tristan Pompey as asked by Dan. I think they would like to get Griffin Conine at pick #52 and BA's top 200 published today, had him at 51.

As for int'l signings in July it seems they are set to pay 2/3 of the pool money to Orestes Martinez. They are also linked to a pitcher from the DR whose name escapes me at the moment.

hypobole - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#358493) #

Slumping Bo with 2 doubles and a HR.

Vlad also with 3 hits including a HR. .435

bpoz - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#358494) #

Thanks Peter G.

Gerry - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#358496) #

Justin Dillon with a seven inning complete game today. His ERA is 0.79. Its unbelievable so far.

greenfrog - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#358500) #

The front office must really hate that Vladdy is hitting at such a torrid pace so soon in AA, thereby forcing their hand. No way they can keep him in the minors all year if he keeps this up.

It�s such a ridiculous situation. He belongs in the majors � in my view he would likely outhit everyone on the team over the rest of the season, especially if you factor in health. And the second WC spot remains well within reach.

I see the Guerrero Jr. situation as a potential PR disaster for the Jays, either if the team falls just short of a postseason spot in 2018 with Vlad hitting .400 or so in the minors, or if the team fails to extend him and he walks as a free agent at 25 or 26, one of the top few players ever to wear a Jays uniform (parameters over passion) � a situation that no amount of corporatespeak will ever be able to rectify.

BlueJayWay - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#358501) #

The front office must really hate that Vladdy is hitting at such a torrid pace so soon in AA, thereby forcing their hand. No way they can keep him in the minors all year if he keeps this up.

I was just thinking about that today. Of course they'd never say it publically, at most would say "it's a good problem to have" or something like that, but I wonder if in actuality they really do dislike this. He's putting a lot of pressure on them.

AWeb - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#358502) #

I also find it amusing that the Blue Jays have a 2B hitting .305/.433/.681 and a team leading 12 HRs (none of those slash line #s lead Guerrero) in AA, is also the son of a HoFer, the Jays are hitting a collective .215/.261/.335 at his position in the majors (which is much better than the presumptive starter at the position, who is ~.500 OPS). I realize there's more reason for skepticism for Biggio's numbers, but damn, that's a pretty good 170 PAs for him too.

I'm a fan of the Blue Jays, not the frigging front office and ownership and their long term plans. For Guerrero, if your plans can't handle players being more successful than you figured, your plan sucks. Put the best players on the team now, and worry about the financial "consequences" later. "What if this player is too good to afford in 5-7 years?" is a ridiculous thing to worry about right now, especially since there's not a single player on the team now who looks like a good bet to be useful in 5 years (maybe Sanchez and Stroman despite struggles this year?).

stevieboy22 - Friday, May 25 2018 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#358503) #

Has anyone head anything about how the organization views Dillon?

uglyone - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#358504) #

yeah there's a nice tidy irony in the fact that we couldn't invest in this team because there wasn't enough young talent, but now we can't bring up elite young talent because the team isn't good enough.

Super Bluto - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#358505) #

At this point, it just seems cruel to leave Vladdy where he is. At the very least, bring him to Buffalo.

ayjackson - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#358506) #

Yeah at least let him plow through AAA for a month.

dan gordon - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 04:29 AM EDT (#358507) #

Vladdy's line for his last 14 games is pretty crazy: .537/.576/.889/1.465. You could cut it in half, and it wouldn't be bad.

Dillon and Fisk have been unpredictably good since moving to AAA from the lower minors. In Dillon's strong game today he only had 1 K in 7 IP. How long can these guys keep getting AAA hitters out?

hypobole - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#358508) #

"And the second WC spot remains well within reach."

So a 9% chance is "well within reach"?

Vlad isn't going to help our pitching staff, which ranks 11th in the AL. Happ and Gaviglio have been our only league average starters, and yeah Gaviglio has been a nice story and may keep this up, but I wouldn't bet real money on it.

Loup, Axford and Oh have been our only relievers better than league average, and with Osuna out our high leverage innings have been brutal.

Our defence is still bad and Vlad isn't going to help there either.

So let's be optimistic and say we are within spitting distance of that second wild card at the deadline. What does the FO do? Trade Bo to land a real asset? trade a bunch of lower prospects for marginal improvement? Or stand pat and get excoriated like AA did in 2014?

I'm not saying don't bring Vlad up, but people need to step back a bit, take off their rose coloured glasses and look at the big picture. We need to add assets to build around Vlad so he doesn't end up like Trout and Votto with HOF production on non-playoff teams.

greenfrog - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#358509) #

Does Fangraphs� playoff projection system know that we have a 221 wRC+ player in AA who can play 3B or DH?

hypobole - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#358510) #

Fangraphs knows he can't pitch.

scottt - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#358511) #

In 2014, AA traded guys who were close for freshly signed free agents who performed around league average and they finished 3rd. I don't think we can call that a standing pat year. AA brought up Lawrie and Stroman mid-year.

The thing with Vlad is the contract. If he goes year to year, they might as well keep him down until September.
If he's willing to sign something for 7+ years, then they should bring him up now.

hypobole - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#358512) #

This was our 2014 trade deadline.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2014/07/31/blue_jays_jose_bautista_disappointed_team_didnt_improve_at_deadline.html

greenfrog - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#358513) #

Upgrading the pitching staff is one way to improve a team; it�s not the only way. (The pitching may improve in any event, as a result of regression to the mean, improved health, and external and internal additions.) Also, if we want Vladdy to be on good Jays rosters in the future, it�s arguable we should be supporting contention now (present contention = higher revenues = more spending in future years).

Of course, the team could always pursue a Houston-like tank job as well. There are different paths to future success.

bpoz - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#358514) #

There is a decent enough case for looking at the numbers and extrapolating. This off season we learned how the numbers worked if you extrapolate them.

The W650 number is a good number for extrapolation. 250PAs X 2.6 = 650 PAs.

Bautista's 2016 numbers did not add up to the $150 mil he wanted. At the moment Donaldson's numbers don't add up to an equivalent $ amount to the 2015 and 2016 numbers. I expect that he will accept the QO because of rejection based on money and the draft pick lost.
M Moustakas settled for a lot less pay for 2018. Only 1 QO allowed so next year no lost draft pick.

Currently Pillar, Solarte and Maile are doing very well. The SSS will be over by 250 PAs for Pillar and Solarte. So I expect our conservative FO to wait for the 250 PAs, extrapolate the numbers and try for a long term deal for Pillar and Solarte. Maile needs more PAs maybe 110. Maile is only 27 years old/young. The main stumbling block is that these players may want to test Free Agency for an even bigger payday. Some players do and some don't.

Super Bluto - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#358515) #

At this point, I'm not sure it matters if Vlad can help the team with a WC this year (I don't think he can). But when he's doing this crazily well it seems not to promote him is getting close to a human rights violation.

greenfrog - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#358516) #

Yes, keeping Vlad in AA is violating the right of pitchers in that league to psychological security, as well as their right not to be subjected to cruel and unusual punishment.

uglyone - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#358517) #

bpoz the FO will use much more than just this year's sample to extrapolate future value from.

and I wouldn't look too closely at "playoff odds" this early. any team hanging around .500 at this point imo is still in the playoff picture. and anyways with the way our roster is built (aka Deep Mediocrity) we could actually sell off a number of pieces while possibly improving our playoff chances with callups.

regardless, though, I'd love to see vladdy and it would be fairly embarrassing for the team to keep trotting out Morales there instead while the team is actually kinda competing out there.

PeterG - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#358520) #

Vlad is not being called to the show until he goes to Buffalo and puts up superior numbers there.

hypobole - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#358521) #

bpoz, no need for a Solarte long term deal. Part of his value are 2 affordable team options that will take him to his age 33 season.

Mike D - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#358522) #

I would call Vlad up to Buffalo immediately for this reason: Players in the organization need to believe that they are part of a meritocracy. There has to be the realistic possibility of accelerating your development plan through superior performance.

Everyone understands the service time issue, but sometimes people need to get what they deserve.

greenfrog - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#358527) #

Why does Buffalo have to be a stop along the way to the majors? The scouts seem to be saying Vlad is ready to play in the majors now. Relocating him to Buffalo for a while would seem to have less to do with meritocracy than with the appearance of meritocracy.

uglyone - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#358530) #

"Vlad is not being called to the show until he goes to Buffalo and puts up superior numbers there."

for the record, most of these type of prospects skip AAA entirely, or are there for only a very short while.

greenfrog - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#358531) #

Views of opposing managers/players/scouts on Vlad Jr. (recommended):

https://milbprospective.mlblogs.com/scouting-report-vladimir-guerrero-jr-406aa1fd40d0

jerjapan - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#358532) #

Stevieboy, Dillon was a senior signing, a 10th rounder with a 5K signing bonus. I'd say the org views him as an org soldier given the emergency call to the Buffalo rotation straight out of a mediocre run in A ball. Just look at the other guys in this situation - Connor Eller and Josh DeGraff - older guys, later draft picks, no established track record - the just filled an org need at the time. I'm sure Dillon is opening eyes, but he sure has a long way to go yet before being viewed as a prospect.
Another guy taking a run at legit prospect status - if he hasn't earned it already - is "Uncle Creepy' Brock Lundquist (any MMA fans agree with the nickname?)

An ISO of .256 and a BB% of 10.9%, he seems to be getting the ball in the air a lot more this year. Too bad he's limited to a corner OF position.

uglyone - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#358534) #

Dillon's got an intriguing history. Scouts were all over him as a legit prospect even through 2 season ending injuries (one of them TJ). He's also a hard worker and pretty badass in general off the field.

good pre-draft articles on him here: https://statehornet.com/2017/03/sac-state-senior-justin-dillon-doesnt-battle-injuries-anymore-just-batters/

and here: https://www.google.ca/amp/amp.sacbee.com/sports/college/article153674319.html

His calling card seems mostly to be his command, but the arsenal has starting potential (93-94 fastball with natural cut, plus usable curve, slider, and change) though it seems he doesn't have a true outpitch. Kind of a Biagini-ish mix but maybe with better command (and physical fitness).

hard to glean anything from his numbers yet, but I'm willing to throw out the good (A-) and the bad (A+) tiny samples where he was way too old for the levels and judge him solely on how he does in More age appropriate AAA going forward (though without getting to high on him after just 3 starts) - but if he continues to do well in AAA, i don't think there's any particular reason to dismiss him as a potential contributor even this year.

PeterG - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#358535) #

"for the record, most of these type of prospects skip AAA entirely, or are there for only a very short while."

for the record, that was said by Shapiro in a pre season interview.

uglyone - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#358536) #

thanks for that link greenfrog.

I loved this one: "�We�ve tried to pitch inside to him. I think we�ve hit him like four times, hit-by-pitch. We�ve tried to go inside on him, and he doesn�t change his approach. We�ve gone backwards with breaking balls, and he doesn�t change his approach. He hit a ball 118 against a knuckleball pitcher that we have. He�s gotten everything out there, every single pitch that you can mention.�"

also some nice quotes on his defense (and I've read some other positive quotes on his defense elsewhere too recently).

on the topic of his defense I want to point out that there is no reason why he can't develop his defense up here in the bigs, especially if we swap him and Donaldson in and out of 3b/DH. in some ways, with better coaches and better player's to learn from up here, his defense might be better off developing up here.

PeterG - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#358537) #

Dillon also pitched a no hitter his senior year of college.
Given his history, I am surprised that he was available in round 10 for a 5K bonus. I do agree that he at least bears watching as there is some possibility that he could be for real and a major league look is not out of the question if he keeps it up with the Bisons.

uglyone - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#358538) #

"for the record, that was said by Shapiro in a pre season interview"

good to know. but that can be used as a criticism of Shapiro, too.

hypobole - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#358541) #

but that can be used as a criticism of Shapiro, too.

Some have a superlative ability to be able to use anything and everything as a criticism of Shapiro. :)

uglyone - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#358542) #

why thank you!

hypobole - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#358543) #

You're welcome, keep up the outstanding criticism! Never gets old.

bpoz - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#358544) #

Some high prospects fail and some close to non prospects succeed.
K Graveman is a good example.

Saving money on Vlad is an honest concept. The extra year will probably have great value. Of course you don't want that "pink slip" to spoil your long term personal benefit. Therefore win enough.

Dr B - Saturday, May 26 2018 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#358548) #

And if you missed it there is another Dillon article (as previously suggested by #2JBrumfield)

https://csplusbaseball.ca/2018/04/16/cs-chat-justin-dillon/

Gerry - Sunday, May 27 2018 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#358559) #

Jordan Romano has been promoted to the Bisons. Deck McGuire and Luis Santos are also back in Buffalo. Dusty Isaacs and Justin Dillon sent to New Hampshire.

hypobole - Sunday, May 27 2018 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#358560) #

Looks like Romano and McGuire will be the Bisons' starters in today's doubleheader.

Rooting for Romano. Big time need for a couple of our young starters to show enough to grab a spot in next years Jays rotation.

scottt - Sunday, May 27 2018 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#358572) #

Another reason to delay Vladdy is that the fans want him.
He's going to be the novelty that sells tickets next year.

Gerry - Sunday, May 27 2018 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#358582) #

Romano pitched very well for Buffalo today but according to Ben Nicholson Smith its a one and done for todays double header. He is supposed to go back to New Hampshire after this one start.

Shoeless Joe - Sunday, May 27 2018 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#358584) #

I'm still not sure Romano makes it as a starter as his fastball/slider is great against righties but he fares much worse against lefties. He reminds me a lot of Scott Richmond from a size/stuff/citizenship perspective.

jerjapan - Sunday, May 27 2018 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#358588) #

The org is clearly not afraid to move young pitchers, particularly the lower pedigree guys, up and down levels depending on organizational need. Years past we'd have org soldiers doing that, but right now there's a lot of moving parts. I imagine that could be disruptive for a young pitcher. I do worry that Biagini has been screwed up a bit with all the disruptions.

although I'm sure some will thrive with the challenge, like with Dillon so far. I'm very interested to see how he does at a lower level after his weirdly great run in Buffalo.

Tim Mayza is too good for Buffalo right now, 10 IPs, 9 baserunners allowed, 17 Ks. He deserves a roster spot over Petricka.
converted OF Drew Muren, a minor league FA, made his Jays debut with a clean inning in AA. Muren is 29 but pitches in the high 90s.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#358613) #

You know, as he approaches his first 100pa in AAA, it might be time to note that Alford is faceplanting worse than even Rowdy did last year - way, way worse. And is a year older.

He has an 18wrc+ in 94pa in AAA so far. Which is obviously atrocious. So bad that it almost demands him going back to AA.

hopefully he is playing through injury or something.

hypobole - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#358615) #

Yeah, found it odd people were pointing out our #2 prospect Bo's "struggles" and his value taking a dive while seemingly oblivious to our #3 prospect cratering in AAA.

That said, they were patient with Rowdy last year, guessing they'll stay that way with Alford, at least for a while longer.

hypobole - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#358616) #

And "they were patient" refers to our FO, not posters.

Gerry - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#358620) #

Logan Warmoth has gone on the DL in Dunedin. It looks like Kevin Smith is going up to replace him.

Mike Green - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#358621) #

Borucki and Zeuch start this afternoon for the Bisons and Fisher Cats respectively.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#358623) #

Has Warmoth just been Wally Pipp'd?

lexomatic - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#358624) #

Another bloodline player (can't find where the discussion was happening before. Maybe above?) Brandon Grudzielanek, NEPHEW of Mark G. And someone who shouldn't have been afraid of potentially playing in Canada.http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t499&player_id=677826#/career/R/hitting/2018/ALL
Alford is faceplanting worse than even Rowdy did last year - way, way worse. And is a year older.
He has an 18wrc+ in 94pa in AAA so far. Which is obviously atrocious. So bad that it almost demands him going back to AA.
hopefully he is playing through injury or something.
I think Alford probably showed the team enough last year to give himself rope. Not a great start.Not worried, but could become so. The shuttle probably hasn't been great for getting into a rhythm. It's a shame he didn't get more time last year when he was hot.

Tellez is hitting better, but not really enough. He needs to find that other gear if he doesn't want to be a AAA FA because Vlad Jr jumped past him. I still think he's a Paul Sorrento type, useful but not a star. Definitely rooting for him, though.

bpoz - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#358626) #

I love da Box. My 1st reaction to your Wally Pipp post was that you are playing a joke on us. Nothing wrong with that. I like humor.

But I checked Bo's Lansing 2017 stats to K Smiths. 100 more PAs for Bo and of course the age difference. Very similar other wise.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#358631) #

Too bad for Warmoth, but good to see Smith moved up a level. If he can finish strong at A+ and make it to AA next year that would move up his timeline quite a bit.

I think the concerning part about Alford is that the strikeouts are back where they were prior to last season. He's only a full time player if he keeps up the contact rates he had last year.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#358633) #

Also Cullen Large has been activated off the DL in Lansing

Marc Hulet - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#358635) #

The Kevin Smith vs Logan Warmoth debate is a perfect example why people shouldn't get too excited/worried about the first round pick in this year's draft... the Jays' best luck in the past has come from other rounds... and finding immense value in picks "cheap" college seniors, etc. (like Matt Boyd). Heck, they've even done a nice job signing non-drafted college guys after the draft that slipped through (like Casey Lawrence).

ayjackson - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#358638) #

Ryan Borucki is up to 17 high-minors starts for his career and, including today's, his last five have been quite solid. He might not be far away. Hopefully we can wait 6 weeks or so.

Mike Green - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#358647) #

Danny Jansen went 2-3 with a walk today. He's hitting .331/.438/.488 for the season, and has been great in the high minors for essentially a full year now. He is 23 years old, and as with Teoscar Hernandez, there is no reason to keep him down.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#358649) #

I'd like to keep Borucki down a little bit longer yet. I would like to see a little more dominance instead of just above average. However if injuries happen he will be the next guy up.

TJ Zeuch has been quite hittable this year and might be looking less and less like a mid-rotation guy and more like a back end / middle reliever type.

bpoz - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#358652) #

I agree with the above posts regarding Borucki, Jansen and Zeuch. Zeuch is in his AA adjustment phase.

Borucki seems ready or close. We are using #6 SP for Stroman. That is wide open. Gaviglio losing that spot makes room for Borucki. I suppose.

Jansen is not up. Maile is catching. Martin is playing other positions beside catcher. Martin should not sit on the bench. Bautista did not. Respect I suppose. Remember Casey Janssen complained in 2014 when Sanchez became the closer. That happened.

Next year, 2019, Martin and Maile are still here. Jansen's role concerns me.

All I am saying is pure opinion/feelings. I cannot back up any of it with numbers. This is baseball culture. That is my backup. I believe it exists but I cannot back up my own backup.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#358653) #

shoeless - is that in-person scouting on zeuch? because stats wise any issue with such in AA so far seems to be mostly babip related. so far his overall numbers at age appropriate AS this year seem to be quite solid, though not spectacular, with his elite groundball rate mostly making up for his low K rate.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#358654) #

overall though i'm pretty encouraged by our key pitching prospects this year - srf, borucki, such all seem to be on track statistically to be contributors. and we hope Pearson comes back on track too. and Dillon is suddenly very interesting too.

bpoz - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#358655) #

Patrick Murphy has not been mentioned. I believe. He got promoted to NH and did ok.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#358656) #

"such" is autocorrect for "zeuch"

dan gordon - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#358658) #

Alford has been slowed this year by injury. He pulled a hamstring back in late March, and was DL'd. The effects of missing time in the spring very often result in poor starts to the season, so I'm not too worried about him. His playing time has been very sporadic, so he hasn't had a good opportunity to get going. If he's still struggling in another month or so, OK, then I'd start to get worried. His first game was April 9th, and since then he has had the following days with no game - April 10, 13, 15, 16, 19, 22, 24, 26, 28, 29, May 5, 7, 9(pinch run only), 10(1 plate appearance only), 14, 15, 17, 21. Way too much time off.

It also seems his leg is still not 100% - look at his SB's and triples, the things that require speed. He typically steals a lot of bases, and has a good SB %. This year he has only 3 SB and has been caught 3 times, counting all 3 levels he's played at. Also, zero triples so far.

I was surprised at Zeuch's promotion to AA. His numbers at Dunedin last year and this year were good but not great. His K:BB ratio was hovering around 2.7:1 and he was giving up about a hit an inning. I think he was pushed a bit too aggressively, and it's not surprising he's had a bit of a rough ride in AA. Hopefully, he can catch up to that level by the end of this year, or early next year.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#358659) #

I really don't think he's having a rough ride in AA at all - before today's solid effort he had a 4.01fip and 3.87xfip, with his 4.76era seeming mostly to do with his .364babip. his elite gb% is still over 60%, he's actually lowered his linedrive rate.....and already after today's outing his era is down to 4.30, and I imagine his fips have gone down too.

dan gordon - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#358661) #

Looks like the new closer for the Bisons is Justin Schafer. He's 4 for 4 since being called up after a 2-inning save today. Another former starter (20 starts in 2016) who has really blossomed as a reliever. His 2018 numbers combined for AA/AAA include an ERA of 0.82, WHIP of 0.95, 15 hits in 22 IP, and a K:BB ratio of 18:6. You'd like to see a few more K's, but he may be a guy who will get a shot in the Jays bullpen this year.

hypobole - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#358663) #

Here's a 2080 scout report on Zeuch from one of his Dunedin starts in April.

https://2080baseball.com/reports/t-j-zeuch/

krose - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#358664) #

May I suggest a new top 10 prospect list.
1. Guerrero
2. Jansen
3. K. Smith
4. Bichette
5. Biggio
6. Alford
7. Borucki
8. Zeuch
9. Urena
10. Pearson

greenfrog - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#358666) #

Bichette is still the Jays' #2 prospect, in my view. Also, it looks as if he's finding his offensive mojo. Over his last six games, he has nine hits including two HR, two doubles, four walks (against two strikeouts), and three SB.

A competent shortstop who can hit and run? That has a lot of value.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#358667) #

I was just playing around with that. came up with this with my first stab at it:

1.Vladdy
2.Bo
3.Jansen
4.Pearson
5.Alford
6.R-Foley
7.Biggio
8.Smith
9.Borucki
10.Zeuch
11.Urena
12.Gurriel
13.McGuire
14.Taylor
15.Dillon

bpoz - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#358668) #

No Romano? I can see waiting for Y Diaz.

greenfrog - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#358669) #

My top ten might be something like:

Guerrero Jr.
Bichette
Jansen
Alford
Pearson
Gurriel Jr.
Smith (Kevin)
Biggio
Borucki
Zeuch

On the cusp: Pardinho, Warmoth, Reid-Foley

krose - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#358670) #

Romano requires real respect.

jerjapan - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#358671) #

No chance I'd drop Bichette out of 2nd based on his 'struggles' as a young 20 year old in AA.

I couldn't put Biggio or Smith in the top ten yet - too early in their one good season for me - and Justin Dillon doesn't even crack my top 30. His 4 impressive outings in Buffalo are eye-opening, but this is a low pedigree guy who was mediocre, at age 24, in six appearances in Dunedin before getting the emergency call-up to Buffalo. It's not like the FO saw something they liked - they've been doing this with several of their fringey pitchers.

And if we are willing to move guys up based on a third of a breakout season, shouldn't McGuire and Taylor take hits for struggling this year? I prefer upside guys like Chavez Young and Yennsy Diaz towards the bottom of the list (Taylor's got upside, he's just struggling a bit), although I agree with you guys on Jansen in 3rd.

krose - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#358672) #

Could easily be as many as 5 people from UO�s list who make the team next spring. Add in Hernandez, Smith Jr, and Maile, and the Jays look very different.

greenfrog - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#358673) #

jerjapan, I feel comfortable ranking Smith in the top 10. Fangraphs' take on Smith prior to this season was "big swing, raw power, and a glove that can stick at short but a questionable approach." Now it appears that his approach has evolved from "questionable" to "excellent." And he has kept it up. Here are his April/May splits:

April: .330/.381/.568
May: .379/.430/.705

And he has 12 SB (1 CS) so far. His BB rate is 8.3% and his K rate is 16.2%. All really good and much improved over last year.

Of course, now he has to do it at higher levels in the minors. But a good-fielding 21-year-old shortstop in low-A with outstanding offensive performance over 200+ PA and stats trending upward month over month? That looks like a top 10 prospect to me, even in a very good farm system.

Mike Green - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#358675) #

Biggio's season so far is not a good one. It's a great one. It's so good that if you pro-rate his career performance over the rest of the year, his line for 2018 would be .272/.382/.477. For a 23 year old second baseman in double A, that's very good. Devon Travis was in the Eastern League also at age 23 and hit .298/.358/.460.

greenfrog - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#358678) #

1. Bat speed
2. Defense at second base

Two questions that evaluators have brought up in relation to Biggio. You can�t deny his offensive performance this year, though.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#358679) #

Biggio and Smith are too insane this year not to be top 10 imo.

Personally I don't really see much in Romano or Diaz. nothing in their numbers seems to support their gaudy ERAs this year. And romano is old.

Dillon I like but is obviously an outlier call. the scouting reports indicate legit stuff and work ethic, and while old he dominated Vancouver out of the draft and dominated buffalo this year....and even his iffy Dunedin stint actually just looks like one bad outing where he gave up 6 runs.

and I don't see Taylor as struggling - he's young for the level and holding his own a tick under league average.

but I could easily see guys like Young and Vicuna over guys like Dillon and Taylor. they're really close for me.

I'm surprised I'm the only one ranking SRF - the kid is our 2nd highest upside pitcher imo and is right back on track with what was ranking him a top prospect before last year's disaster year.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#358680) #

I'm actually surprised by how low I dropped Warmoth. he should I guess be in the top 15 at least but it's hard to see it right now.

greenfrog - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#358681) #

Tellez hit .297/.387/.530 in his age-21 season at AA. Minor-league performance matters, but it�s not a guarantee of the player�s future trajectory.

jerjapan - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#358682) #

Ugly, I'm with you on SRF. My list:
1. Vlad Jr.2. Bichette3. Jansen4. Pearson5. Alford6. SRF7. Zeuch8. Borucki9. Gurriel Jr.
10. Warmoth

Smith and Biggio are certainly climbing fast and you guys have me nudging them a bit higher.

uglyone - Monday, May 28 2018 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#358683) #

true, greenfrog, but scouting reports aren't everything either

Drabek and Wallace were top-25 prospects.

dan gordon - Tuesday, May 29 2018 @ 02:44 AM EDT (#358685) #

Given the park effects in New Hampshire, particularly for left handed batters, I think we should look at Tellez' road numbers there in 2016. His road OPS was .835. Well, you know what, since he got off to a terrible start in the 1st seven games of this year, his OPS is pretty close to that, right around .800. He's making a nice comeback from last year, and he just turned 23 a couple of months ago.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 29 2018 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#358734) #

we never heard much about new Hampshire's apparent park factors before rowdy iirc.

hypobole - Tuesday, May 29 2018 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#358737) #

Anthony Gose. Look at his hrs over his career. That's when I first heard of the NH park.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 29 2018 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#358745) #

ok Gose fits the narrative....maybe Pompey too...but not many other examples I can find from a quick search.

but even then, I'm seeing something like a 20-30pt boost in ISO, which if removed would still have left Rowdy over a .200iso as a 21yr old in AA, which is plenty of power.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 29 2018 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#358747) #

Jim Callis first posted something about the L/R split in New Hampshire in 2004. The Blue Jays had moved their double A franchise from New Haven that year. I remember because Aaron Hill was in New Hampshire that year. After the year, Baseball Prospectus projected a weak future for Hill because of his lack of displayed power (relative to his home park and league). I sent Nate Silver an e-mail pointing out the L/R disparity in New Hampshire; he replied that there wasn't enough data. I've kept the e-mail for posterity! I don't disagree with Nate Silver very often and usually he's right.

Anyways, comprehensive data on minor league splits are relatively new. The website minorleaguesplits.com existed for a few years there in the late aughts and early teens, and now of course it's available on milb.com and elsewhere.

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