The D-Jays' opponents are now called the "Tampa Tarpons".  Try saying that five times fast without ending up with the Tarpa Tampons.  Do they call them "the Tarps" for short, by the way? 

It is great that Biggio recovered so fast. He is doing very well in AA. Power, BA and strike zone control.

It is too early to evaluate how he compares with Travis. But he looks promising.

Here is a very interesting article explaining why HS pitching, right handers in particular, has been losing value in the draft.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/first-round-prep-righties-fall-short-of-expectations/

Biggio just hit his 12th. Vladdy has two doubles in two abs.

Keith Law has an insider piece this morning with notes on the Fisher Cats' Monday game. I could only read the intro but he apparently has some takes on all of Bo, Vlad, and Cavan.

Jordan Romano looking great - 0 hits through 5. My 1st look at him, although I've only caught part of the game. 3/4 arm slot, 92-96. RHB's having a heck of a time all season apparently - only hitting around .100.

Vlad just homered. 4th hit.

vladdy 4/4, 2b, 2b, 1b, hr


just silly

Is it too late to get him to New York for today's game?

Some Keith Law stuff.

"In two games I’ve seen Vlad make multiple misplays at third, some from a lack of lateral range, and some just from getting too cute in trying to field ground balls. He has a 70-grade arm, but he rifled a throw that should have started a 5-4-3 double play into right field. He seems to like to backhand routine grounders rather than getting his (large) body in front of them. He did make a great play coming in on a ground ball that likely would have gone foul, and he has no problem leaving his feet to try to make a play. But he’s not an average defender at third, probably not even a 40 right now, and given his sheer size already at age 19, the odds are against him getting to a 50. Fortunately for everyone involved, this is a grade-80 bat that will profile even if he ends up at first base rather than in right field."

Law on Bo

Bo Bichette played shortstop and hit ahead of Vlad, with three hits, all hit hard, including a double off the left-field wall on a curveball down and in from a left-handed pitcher. His swing is just as it was last year, unconventional with a wrap and generally noisy, but his hands are so quick and hand-eye coordination so good it doesn't seem to matter, and he showed no trouble adjusting to off-speed stuff. His one strikeout came on a 92 mph fastball down below the zone.

Bichette’s footwork remains an issue at short, but his hands and arm are more than adequate for the position or for second base, where he has played one game this year. He plays everywhere like his hair is on fire; he made a catch over the left-field tarp despite starting the play shifted to his left from the normal starting position for a shortstop (if such a thing even exists anymore). He's not as advanced a hitter as Vlad Jr. -- who is, really? -- but I think next fall is a realistic time for his arrival.

Law on Biggio

• Cavan Biggio appeared to be just an organizational player coming out of college and even after a 2017 season in which he hit an underwhelming .233/.342/.363 as a 22-year-old in high-A with 11 homers. It's May 15, and he already has 10 homers in Double-A, with just three of them at home in New Hampshire (a good park for left-handed power) and two in Reading, Pennsylvania (a good park for power, period), along with an OBP that rose to .412 after he drew three walks and hit a line-drive single to center against a lefty's slider in his one official at-bat. (He left the game after he was dinged up while sliding into second base.)

Biggio's power looks legitimate; there's some length to his swing and it's not great bat speed, but he does seem to have loft to his finish and enough strength to be this sort of 20-homer bat. The Blue Jays have mostly played him at second, where he's a fringy defender at best, and he may profile best on defense at first, where I don't think his bat would make him a regular. Three months ago, he wasn't even a potential backup, though, and this looks like real, sustainable progress.

Law on our pitchers

Jon Harris, was throwing 94-97 mph as well as a cutter and slurve, but he might as well have been throwing 82 for how well the Hartford hitters turned on his fastball. Right-hander Zach Jackson threw two perfect innings in relief for New Hampshire, working at 92-95 mph as well as a power curveball at 83-85 mph. He comes from a very high arm slot that gives him some plane on the fastball, similar to Tyler Thornburg's slot (which limits him to a relief role).

• When I saw New Hampshire at Reading a few weeks ago, Sean Reid-Foley started for the Fisher Cats and showed two plus pitches but not command. His fastball was 92-95 mph, a four-seamer with some life up in the zone, and his slider was plus at 85-87. He also showed a hard slurve in the 82-84 mph range -- they are two distinct pitches, according to a Toronto source -- and a fringy changeup that comes in at 83-85.

He has had trouble with control this year, walking 17 in 38 innings (despite one six-inning, no-walk outing), and has a wide platoon split thanks to the lack of an average changeup. There's still starter potential here, but it's now his second year at Double-A and his main issues aren't really resolved to the point where I could say he's going to be a starter in the big leagues.

This is an interesting test for the FO. Guerrero should be in AAA and is clearly big league ready, but the economics of the game make it far more sensible to hold him back (from the big leagues) until early next year. That is going to be hard to do if he's hitting over .400 with power and more walks than strike outs at age 19. He's the best hitting prospect the Jays have ever had. Now is the time to hand out a big, long contract. Assume some of the risk. Players like this don't come along very often. Even if it's a 10 year deal, that covers his entire 20's. That has to be a consideration at this point.

Obviously it takes two to tango so if he doesn't want to sign then there's nothing you can do about that, but that's where holding him back will be more important, even if it looks bad.

And Romano's left the game with some injury after throwing a pitch with the no-hitter intact. Guesses were blister or fingernail, doesn't seem to be elbow or shoulder.

Guerrero's BAT is big league ready. Bring him up, he's a DH.

Vlad is 4-5 with 2 doubles and a home run so far today. Biggio has number 12.

SK - but wouldn't that same argument apply again next year? that it makes more sense financially to hold him down in the minors yet ANOTHER year? and so on?

The Jays control Guerrero for effectively 7 years, let's say starting in late april 2019 - is this FO going to be here that long? It's a bigger test for ownership - If I'm Vladdy, I'm not signing any deal that includes any FA years.

Vladdy at 3B always seemed like a pipe dream - too bad about Biggio's defense, I was hoping he could play 3B.
Maybe when Donaldson goes in July, Gio Urshela gets a long look at 3B.I think the FO is hoping Gio emerges enough with the bat to play 3B everyday.

Not sure how much holding Vlad down has to do with economics. Gonna have to pay him sooner or later as uo sort of pointed out.

It does have more to do with dovetailing Vlad's major league tenure with Jays playoff contention. No matter when we bring him up, we'll probably see something akin to Mike Trout's career, where despite his greatness, LA has only had one postseason trip, and that lasted all of 3 games.

Waiting till late April next year really only helps the 2025 season, but something is better than nothing, which is where Toronto is at now, other than for the Lloyd Christmas optimists.

Holding Guerrero back this season is easier because he's only had a little over a month in AA. They can keep him down with the excuse of working on his defense (which might actually be a legitimate excuse if they want to play him at 3B). However by this time next year, he would have already crushed AA and probably AAA as well. They would have had the entire 2018 season to see him perform in the upper minors and work on his defense before promoting him in 2019.

Every year with Guerrero matters. If they call him up now, they have him through 2024. If they wait until this time next year, then they have him through 2025. That extra year is going to be huge value most likely, and the Jays will (hopefully) be in much better shape as a team in 2025 than they are today where that extra year might actually mean something.

Again, it depends on what Vlad wants to do, but if I were the Jays, I'd tell him that I'd call him up tomorrow if he signed a long-term deal that ate up some of his free agent years. At that point the Jays can have him work on his defense in the bigs without having to worry about the service time implications. But as is, I want Guerrero on this team in 2025 more than I want him here in 2018.

It's an unfair system and sucks for the player, but that's how baseball is.

I think this is being over thought. If I may add to that vein .... if he is going to walk.... then the FO of the time may trade him. They will know his affordability and also his trade value.

Keeping him in the minors until he is "fully developed" gives the most value to his time as a Jay.

If Donaldson isn't going to be around next year then I want Guerrero to have as many reps as possible at 3B this year, to give him the best chance of taking over that position next year. I think the best opportunity to do that is keeping him in AA/AAA this year, until September.

If they determine Vladdy can't handle 3B, and Biggio can't handle 2B, then maybe the longer term view has Vladdy at 1B, Travis at 2B, Bichette at SS and Biggio at 3B, with Gurriel the utility guy. That's presuming Smoak doesn't rediscover his form from the 1st 4 months of 2017. Add Jansen at C, Hernandez and hopefully at least 1 of Alford/Pompey in the OF and maybe Pillar, with Solarte at DH, perhaps with a platoon partner for lefties, and you've got potentially a pretty strong lineup. Of course that is still assuming some good development from a few of the kids.

Surprised to hear Law's less than stellar comments about SRF, and the defense comment about Biggio. Law does strike me as a guy who tends to err on the negative side of things. Of course, studies show that people view those who are negative in their opinions/evaluations of things to be smarter than those who have more optimistic opinions, so maybe he's after that.

Devon Travis homered and walked today for Buffalo.  I am hoping that he's back in Toronto for tomorrow's game.  There is no reason for Morales to get starts over him at this point. 

Romano says he just cramped up in todays game and took himself out. We will see when he makes his next start.

I didn't realize Jon Harris threw so hard ( 94-97 ). I presume his fastball doesn't have much movement if the hitters are having no problem hitting it.

I believe we have just or are just about to gain an extra year of service time on Travis.

I am going to be paying extra attention to Zach Jackson (whom I've heard Shapiro praise) & Danny Young as potential future closers for the Jays as I think Osuna's career as a Jays is over.

A couple of quick thoughts.

On Harris, that is either a hot gun or he has significantly increased his velocity. I saw him in Vancouver twice and watched one of his starts last year. In all three viewings he was 91-93 and touched 94 on occasion. Mostly 92s. His fastball has always been ultra straight and his delivery has no deception to it. I've said this since the first time I saw him, I think a Tepera like conversion to the pen would do him wonders. He also throws a SL, CU and CH. None of which are better than average, but focusing on only one (I think its his CU) might help.

I am surprised that Law is so down on Biggie's defence at 2B. It's not world beating but I thought that he looked like he could be an average defender at 2B. Maybe the extra power has come through extra bulk and diminished range? He was pretty lanky when I saw him a couple of years ago.

It's not just velocity. You need some command, some movement, some deception.
A lot of hitters at AA just sit on fastballs.

I am also a bit surprised about the Biggio comments, I thought he was a future 2B when I saw him in Vancouver and the few other scouting reports I have read were not near as negative as Law.

The SRF comments do not surprise me. It's pretty much what I have read from scouts about SRF since he was drafted. Plus fastball that he doesn't command, plus slider and 1 or 2 other fringy secondaries. That looks like a reliever to me, and is part of why the pitching really concerns me.

"I thought that he looked like he could be an average defender at 2B"

Isn't that what fringy means? I thought fringy was a 45-50 grade.

An average defender at second base who hits 20 Homers and draws 60-70 walks a year is probably a decent starter rather than a backup.

On Law's assessment of the Fisher Cats trio's defence, I'd note that Ben Badler had substantially more optimistic things to say about Vlad and Bo's defence when he saw them earlier this season. It's on one of the podcasts, and I assume something went up on BA, but I'm not a subscriber there.

The knock on Law among fans has been that he's almost invariably the low man on Jays prospects and the Jays system. I'm not sure that's the case always, and he's often interesting, but I take him with a grain of salt when it comes to Jays assessments.

based on everything I've read, Biggio as a 2b seems realistic, and Bichette and Smith as either SS or 3B both seem realistic too.

vladdy? I actually think he's athletic enough to be am excellent 1B, but that 3b is really unrealistic. I wish they were spending all their time honing his specific 1B skills (like scooping), tbh.

I don't use my milb subscription enough, but I did see Zeuch's 1st start in NH and it was a defensive horror show. In a span of a few batters Vlad showed no range to his left, letting a medium hit ground ball get by him, forcing Bo to go deep in the hole to get the ball, where he had no chance to throw the runner out. 2 batters later, with men on 1st and 2nd another ball was hit right at Vlad who attempted to tag the runner going by, but missed. The next batter hit a slow roller to Vlad, who should have thrown home. His footwork looked clumsy on the play and he threw to 1st instead, but too late to get the runner.

I'm sure he's not as bad as he showed that day, but that is what he did and it was bad. I'm sure others have seen him on better days and described a more optimistic view. But one can only describe what one sees. And one thing to remember is because Vlad is so advanced with the bat, his defensive play draws more scrutiny than other kids his age who are hiding from view down in extended.

How long has Guerrero been playing 3B? Most prospects who reach AA have been playing their position for a very long time. Vladdy may be doing just fine given the fact he's still learning/adjusting to his position. On the other hand, perhaps there are physical limitations which will render him unable to become an average defender at 3B. The coaches, evaluators in the Jays organization must figure he still has the potential to handle the position or they would move him.