Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Here is your abbreviated, due to family commitments, minor league update. Rowdy Tellez had a big game but couldn't stop the Bisons from being walked off. New Hampshire also were walked-off despite the efforts of Vlad Jr. and Cavan Biggio. Dunedin had another come from behind win and Lansing also won.

Buffalo

The Bisons were walked-off with Carlos Ramirez taking the loss. A lead off walk, a stolen base and two fly balls lost the game. Before that Rowdy Tellez hit his first home run since last June. His two hits and two walks had him on base a lot. Danny Jansen also had two hits. Chris Rowley pitched reasonably well, three earned runs over six innings.

New Hampshire

Cavan Biggio came off the bench to hit a game tying two run home run in the top of the ninth. Vlad Jr had three hits, two of them doubles. Gunnar Heidt and Harold Ramirez also had three hits. Ramirez hot streak has pushed his average above .300. Francisco Rios had a rough start and could be bullpen bound with TJ Zeuch's promotion. Despite tying the game in the ninth New hampshire lost in the bottom of the tenth.

Dunedin

Dunedin came back from a 5-0 deficit to win 8-6. Angel Perdomo had a tough start, his first bad one of the year. Eduard Pinto had three hits including a home run. Kacy Clemens was off to a slow start but picked up two hits in this game. Jonathon Cheshire pitched three shutout innings for the win.

Lansing

The Lugnuts won 4-3. Reggie Pruitt, who we discussed in yesterdays MLU, had two more hits. The Kevin's, Smith and Vicuna, had two each. Yennsy Diaz pitched four shutout innings but had three hits and three walks. This was better than his last start but not as good as the first few.

3 Stars

3rd star: Eduard Pinto

2nd star: Vlad Jr

1st star: Rowdy Tellez

Boxes

Posted by Gerry on Thursday, May 10 2018 @ 11:21 PM EDT.

Rowdy Goes Deep | 81 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

rafael - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#357732) #

Re: Vladdy promotion: it occurred to me to compare stats to Ken Griffey Jr.
He got called up to from AA at age 19. As we know it worked out well for Seattle and that Jr. He got "only" .748 OPS first year. below his MLB career average 0.907 and year 26 1.020
Griffey had great minor league stats over two years but not as strong or long as Vladdy's already. They both seem(ed) to pass everyone's eye test with bat.
Maybe Griffey was more defensive and base-running ready.
personally I wouldn't trade Vladdy's year 26 control for a bit of help for this years Jays.. but other than that selfish reasoning.. its getting tougher to justify the delay

jerjapan - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#357734) #

Rowdy needs a few more days like that one or he'll have proved the 'don't protect him on the 40 man' crew right from the offseason. I've thought the next position player off would be Smith Jr., but he's playing as well as he can given his skill set, and Tellez has fewer HRs than Ryan Goins since the start of last season.

Put me in the 'there's no rush' on Vladdy camp. The long-term value of delaying a year feels to great to risk on a run at a second wildcard, and as Mike Green noted yesterday, he may have to work on his baserunning / game awareness a bit. At the very least I'd like to see him in Buffalo, hitting against some pitchers with big league experience. It's a very different type of player between AA and AAA.

Is this the first cool stretch with the bat we've seen from Bichette?

Siderarming longshot Jonathan Cheshire - he doesn't even get a picture on his milb page - has been lights-out thus far in his pro career. 39 Ks and 1 BB since being drafted in the 36th round and getting a 1K bonus last year, and he's handled the jump to high A with ease. He said he has 5 pitches and two arm slots to work with, with a mid-high 80s FB. Be interesting to see if his funk plays up the ladder.

Chuck - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#357735) #

Put me in the 'there's no rush' on Vladdy camp.

If 2019 figures to be Guerrero's rookie year (even if continued raking at AA warrants a look-see before then), it would no doubt be delayed til late April, like Acuna this year and Bryant a few years ago, so that a 7th year of control could be secured. That would mean Guerrero would be a Jay from ages 20 to 26. He would then be hitting free agency (barring a long term contract having been signed) starting with his age 27 season.

Machado and Harper are, of course, impending free agents. Machado will turn 27 midway through his first FA year. Harper will turn 27 at the end of his first FA year, having played the season as a 26-year old. Alex Rodriguez (the prima donna), way back in the day (pre-Madonna), turned 26 midway through his first FA year.

An early start to your career, even one "delayed" until age 20, means you get to hit free agency in your prime. While the market has become far less aggressive in its pursuit of older free agents, it's not clear yet how they now view those in their prime. I'm confident Machado and Harper will not be disappointed. And if Vlad junior is the real deal, neither will he.

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#357736) #

nobody gets kept in the minors very long when they're doing what vladdy's doing.

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#357741) #

You know, Biggio is barely even old for AA. he's a very young 23, being an April baby. And his line is insanely good. This guy is going to rocket up and start banging on the door to our top-5 soon at this rate, even before any graduations.

Mike Green - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#357742) #

Biggio's home run was apparently a 400 foot plus shot to center field. He's also 4 for 4 stealing bases so far this year. Two other notes- he has hit lefties as well as righties over the last two years, and he is hitting much better on the road than at home so far this year. One final thing- he's a convert to the airball revolution; he'd always hit more balls in the air than on the ground but he has been extreme in that regard this year with a GO/AO rate of .39. The power outburst doesn't scream fluke to me...

bpoz - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#357743) #

I really hope Vlad becomes that hitting superstar.
Promotions are starting to happen. Zeuch, Tice, Clemens. The pipeline is flowing.

The prospect quantity produced by Ash was not good enough IMO. Richardi was worse.

Now I have to figure out how to use this improved prospect quantity.

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#357744) #

as long as it doesn't scream PED, then yeah, there's not much to indicate flukiness in his line this year.

PeterG - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#357745) #

Just released Jim Callis mock draft:

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-players-lead-in-mlb-mock-draft/c-276190214?tid=151437456

PeterG - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#357746) #

perhaps this link will work better:

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-players-lead-in-mlb-mock-draft/c-276190214

PeterG - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#357747) #

As far as I can see, you need to cut and paste the mock address or just go to MLB Pipeline.

ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#357748) #

The prospect quantity produced by Ash was not good enough IMO. Richardi was worse.

The late Mick Doherty would have corrected this error quickly. The Gord Ash/Tim Wilkens draft period produced the most drafted talent of any major league team through those years. Ash managed this despite the unwillingness of the owners at the time to pay. When Interbrew refused to pay slot prices for high draft picks (they were trying unsuccessfully for years to unload the team), Ash/Wilkens were criticized for 'overdrafting' players like Vernon Wells. Yes Ricciardi was terrible, and Anthopoulos' use of first picks was even worse, but the Ash period can't be criticized for drafting, that's for sure. Now his trades, and his free agent signings, that's a different matter.

bpoz - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#357749) #

Thanks CBDC. A Rios, V Wells, R Halladay and a few others was a good haul.

The 1st round should be a source of your best players with the exception of some gems found in the non 1st round.

So Gillick's picks, T Goffena, Zosky, M Stark etc..., Richardi, all except A Hill. AA, Deck, DJ Davis, Pentecost. All poor 1st round quality.

I did not really cherry pick. I am sure that there were a few good ones.

Assuming that Ash was great, his 1st round success is hard to reach. So what would be a good/nice % for 1st round success?

Nigel - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#357750) #

I actually think that I've read a study that set out that the Ash/Wilkens drafts produced the most WAR of any team in baseball when all was said and done. I'm old so maybe I am misremembering that work. The problem, as set out above, is that a number of the players that produced that WAR, did so for other teams after Ash traded them for magic beans, or in one case in particular, traded them for someone who recently illegally imported magic beans.

whiterasta80 - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#357755) #

I actually come down in the "promote VladJu" camp.

My main argument is this. If he is actually not challenged at a level then there is harm in leaving him down there. He is not being forced to make adjustments that will only ever be required of him at the MLB level. Whenever he's going to come up he's going to have to do that "i.e. Griffey's .746 OPS was always going to happen, it was just a matter of when". He's also working with less skilled (although still good) trainers/conditioners. Promotion to the bigs could help him mature physically (as if there's much left to do there) sooner.

Essentially I'd argue that you are making his age 26 season worse by leaving him in the minors much beyond this (ok, maybe a short stay at AAA).

I don't care about early free agency personally. If its a generational player then you are willing to pay him his money (and the Jays can compete with anyone financially if they are successful). Anything less than that and we are talking a couple of million her or there.

Waveburner - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#357758) #

" If he is actually not challenged at a level then there is harm in leaving him down there."

Please provide an example of a player, in any sport, who spent too long in the minor leagues and then ended up becoming a lesser player or outright bust.

The idea that players can become bored or stagnate if they're not playing in the Majors the instant they show performance in AA/AAA is a popular one on the instant gratification internet. There's just no proof whatsoever.

Mike Green - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#357759) #

I actually think that I've read a study that set out that the Ash/Wilkens drafts produced the most WAR of any team in baseball when all was said and done

Steve Treder did the study over at the Hardball Times quite a few years ago. He used Win Shares rather than WAR, but you and CBDC are right about the results.

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#357761) #

"Please provide an example of a player, in any sport, who spent too long in the minor leagues and then ended up becoming a lesser player or outright bus"

I mean there's as much "proof" of that as there is "proof" that rushing prospects hurts them.

85bluejay - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#357762) #

Can't think of a single prospect who has been harmed by having stayed in the minors a little longer than merited - not Tony Fernandez (Alfredo Griffin @ ss - don't Laugh) not Ryan Howard (Jim Thome @ 1B) - If you can cite an example, please share.

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#357763) #

you really want me to start posting names of prospects with long stays in the minors that failed in mlb?

85bluejay - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#357764) #

Baseball is littered with star prospects who were rushed & failed and never recovered - David Clyde,Brian Milner,Mike Morgan etc. really too numerous to list - I can't believe someone can seriously ask that question.

krose - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#357765) #

Difficult to identify individuals harmed by too much time in the minors....because they were harmed, permanently. Very discouraging for young people who have ability to move beyond their level to be held back. The research in gifted education is replete with this information.

85bluejay - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#357766) #

A prospect with a long stay in the minors is not the same as saying a prospect with an outstanding resume who was held back for whatever reason & yes please name a few examples if you can.

Waveburner - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#357767) #

Not names, just one. If it's something worth actually worrying about, should there not be at least one obvious example across all 4 major sports?

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#357768) #

How do you have any proof that it was the "rushing" that caused those prospects to fail? There's countless prospects who fail that weren't rushed.

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#357770) #

and it putting a kid who is massacring AA at unprecedented levels into the big leagues even "rushing"?

and don't most kids who earn a callup as a teenager actually end up being awesome?

krose - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#357772) #

One area of permanent damage to those held back is �level of effort�. High levels of success without increased levels of challenge cause developing young people to �cap� their efforts. The great challenge for future development, for these individuals is to break through the internalized level of effort that had previously provided high levels of success.

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#357773) #

Here's the 12 players who got more than 100pa as a teenager since 1980:

M.Trout
K.Griffey Jr
A.Rodriguez
I.Rodriguez
A.Beltre
M.Machado
B.Harper
Andruw Jones
E.Renteria
J.Upton
M.Upton
J.Oguendo

which of these guys was ruined by the rushing?

Mike Green - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#357776) #

Melvin (or B.J., as he then was) Upton was not "ruined" by rushing him, but the Rays didn't get the maximum benefit from his talent. He was brought up as a shortstop and really couldn't play the position. It would have been better for his career if they had moved him to centerfield a few years earlier.

SK in NJ - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#357786) #

Calling up Guerrero now would be insane. He only has a month of AA under his belt and his presence would make little to no difference to this team�s playoff chances (which are looking pretty slim right about now). They can barely get five innings out of their starters and their 2-3 win closer is gone for who knows how long.

It sucks for the player and is incredibly unfair, but wait until May of next year to call him up for good. Maybe give him a September call up this year because he�s earned it but it would lack so much foresight to lose that extra year of control by calling him up at 19 when the team is likely not going to be good over the next two years. The Jays have a generational talent here. They can�t afford to mess this up.

krose - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#357789) #

Not obvious how you can know that MG. We�re always talking about judgements and probabilities in these cases. But research in learning theory is clear. If you move a person into a situation that they can�t handle they generally experience frustration and a loss of confidence. Too slowly and they miss the window for maximum development.

uglyone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#357790) #

Just want to again point out that Danny Jansen is so far the best hitting AAA prospect the jays have had since maybe Delgado.

ramone - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#357794) #

Uglyone, I watch a fair amount of Bisons games on milb.tv and Jansen's at bats are just great, grinds them out, great strike zone discipline, a joy to watch.

Gerry - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#357796) #

Looks like the Jays have signed Tyler Ladendorf for Buffalo. Dalton Rodriguez has been assigned to New Hampshire. I assume someone from NH is headed to Buffalo.

85bluejay - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#357797) #

And the superstar prospect who was ruined by being held back in the minors is ...anyone...Bueller..Bueller

I am confident that if Vladdy is promoted, he will do just fine, that's not the point - unless the Jays are contending in July and need Vladdy's bat, it's insane to waste a valuable year of Vladdy's control if it's not necessary & unless the rotation turn, this team is not contending .

James W - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#357799) #

Bueller..Bueller

I don't think you could say the Dodgers kept Buehler down too long, and he's far from ruined!

Gerry - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#357803) #

Buffalo have one hit through seven innings, New Hampshire have one through six.

Gerry - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#357807) #

Home run number nine for Biggio. It came after an intentional walk to Vladdy.

Jim - Friday, May 11 2018 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#357829) #

Whatever happened to Joey "Big City" Metropolis?

Me Grimlock really liked him.

dan gordon - Saturday, May 12 2018 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#357839) #

Without a lot of fanfare, Markham's Jordan Romano is having quite a season in AA. After his 7th start tonight, he has an ERA of 2.23, WHIP of 0.97, and he's holding opponents to a batting average of .156. He hasn't allowed more than 4 hits in a game this year. The only blemish is a few too many walks. Possibility for the Jays to have 2 GTA players at some point next year, Pompey being the other one. Kirby Snead kept his AA ERA at 0.00 in finishing Romano's game.

Kacy Clemens hit his first Dunedin HR, and Travis Bergen now has 24 K's and only 4 walks in 14 2/3 innings. I expect we'll see Bergen in New Hampshire this year.

Congrats to Lansing's Kevin Vicuna who finally hit his 1st professional HR. His average sits at .314 and his OPS is .744.

85bluejay - Saturday, May 12 2018 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#357841) #

"I don't think you could say the Dodgers kept Buehler down too long, and he's far from ruined!"

James W - surely you jest! - that line was a reference to a meme from the movie "ferris bueller's day off", not a reference to the pitcher Walker Buehler. Surely, you note that I was saying no poster had named a star prospect who been ruined because they were kept in the minors longer than expected even though some have suggested that the list is long.

jerjapan - Saturday, May 12 2018 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#357848) #

Romano looks great for sure Dan - he was a name I was worried about leaving off the 40 man last winter. The injuries that robbed him and Borucki of development time are clear examples of the sometimes non-linear relationship between age and development - but Romano's clearly not interested in being left exposed again.

Bergen will likely need a 40 man roster spot too, and he's the guy who has lost the most development time in the org. 4 more IPs this year and he sets a career high. He and Danny Young - picked on spot later in the same draft - provide some interesting lefty reliever options, with Snead right behind them, although Bergen has so few pro innings it's hard to gauge his splits. Isn't there some sort of injury-extension available in certain cases for rule v eligibility?

Nice to see Clemens flashing some power at his new level.

uglyone - Saturday, May 12 2018 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#357853) #

"And the superstar prospect who was ruined by being held back in the minors is ...anyone...Bueller..Bueller"

I mean I could give you reams of names of prospects who failed, and could have been promoter faster....but it won't prove things either way.

What if I tried to say the rays screwed up by sending delmon young to AAA instead of MLB? or that Jay Bruce should have been in the bigs at 20, not 22? or that the Orioles screwed up by trying to squeeze an extra year of service time out of him after he had already destroyed AA? or that the Marlins dinner around cameron Maupin too long even though he was easily handling the minors? or how about the red Sox slow-playing swihart? how about justin smoak?

do any of these examples prove anything? I don't think they do, but there are countless similar ones.

Gerry - Saturday, May 12 2018 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#357867) #

Justin Dillon has pitched five shutout innings tonight for Buffalo as an emergency starter. This is on top of 2.2 shutout innings he pitched a week or so ago.

Amazing.

bpoz - Sunday, May 13 2018 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#357868) #

J Dillon, un spectacular in Dunedin. Doing great in Buffalo. What is his story?

James W - Sunday, May 13 2018 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#357870) #

James W - surely you jest!

Yes, I was just joking. As others have pointed out, there is just no way to prove why a failed prospect actually failed.

jerjapan - Sunday, May 13 2018 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#357874) #

Agreed Gerry, Dillon is an incredible story. 10 Ks during his total 6 shutout innings - likely the minor league performance of the year thus far, given that he was pitching in A ball just over a week ago. A tenth round pick last year, he was a senior signing with a 5K bonus. He's certainly dealt with some adversity in his life:

https://statehornet.com/2017/03/sac-state-senior-justin-dillon-doesnt-battle-injuries-anymore-just-batters/

Ryan Noda is another interesting story. He just got his batting average above the Mendoza line yesterday, but has a ridiculous 38 BBs to go with 84 official ABs.

Is Chavez Young a top 20 prospect at this point?

who came off the 40 man for McGuire?

PeterG - Sunday, May 13 2018 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#357875) #

Carlos Ramirez. Surprised? I am.

rafael - Sunday, May 13 2018 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#357878) #

"J Dillon, un spectacular in Dunedin. Doing great in Buffalo. What is his story?"
clearly his development is being held up in the minors.

jerjapan - Sunday, May 13 2018 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#357879) #

Totally surprised that it's Ramirez. Keeping Morales might now cost us a legit relief prospect, although the speed with which the org soured on Ramirez makes me wonder what they know that we don't. I still would rather it be Guerrieri, perhaps even Smith Jr, and feel that Urshela and Petricka, while filling roles on the big league team, are lesser talents as well.

greenfrog - Sunday, May 13 2018 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#357891) #

The Biggio story this year is becoming more and more interesting. Today he was 2/4 with his 10th home run in the first NH game, and 0/2 with a SF in the second.

Guerrero Jr. was 4/7 on the day (now hitting .397). Bichette, on the other hand, was 0/4 and is now hitting a pedestrian .264. It's probably not a bad thing for him to face some adversity and have to make the necessary adjustments.

Zeuch had a decent line of 6 6 1 1 2 4 in game two, while SRF had an iffy start in game one (7 K but 5 BB in four innings).

dan gordon - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 04:34 AM EDT (#357896) #

Interestingly enough, lefties are killing Bichette this year. He's hitting well under .200 and has an OPS well under .500 against them. Still doesn't have a AA HR. Don't forget that in 2016 he was 5 levels lower in the Jays' system. He's come a very long way very quickly, and is still extremely young.

Yes, very surprised that Ramirez was DFA'd. His control seemed to desert him this year. He's walked 13 batters in 10 2/3 innings combined mlb/AAA, but has only given up 3 hits. He was amazing last year, but keep in mind that he wasn't very good in his first 2 pro years, then was good but not great in 2016, he always had walked too many batters until last year, and he's 27. If he's able to regain the control he found last year, he could be a very good bullpen arm.

scottt - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 07:15 AM EDT (#357899) #

We'll see if Ramirez clears waivers. Teams don't usually pounce on relievers who lack control.

I think this is the first time Guerrieri has struggled anywhere and he's always been a starter.

The offense has cooled off quite a bit. It would help to play some of the weaker teams.
So, here comes the Mets who have been on the same trajectory as the Jays.

bpoz - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#357906) #

Thanks dan Gordon. How did Bichette hit lefties last year?

hypobole - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#357908) #

bpoz, if you go to Bo Bichette's page at milb, scroll down a bit, click on splits, and there are drop down boxes where you can choose the year and level.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=666182#/career/R/hitting/2018/ALL

He mashed lefties in Lansing, but hit RH pitchers better at Dunedin.

Especially this year, it's small sample sizes.

bpoz - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#357910) #

Thanks hypobole.

PeterG - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#357914) #

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-51418/

4 Jays in 16 players mentioned. Also of note #4 Jack Flaherty of whom it was said could have been a fair return for Donaldson in off season. No way now.

whiterasta80 - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#357915) #

Waveburner- I'm not sure how exactly I am supposed to provide you with the evidence that you require. I'll give an example, acknowledging that this is speculation (as is labeling Travis Snider or Morgan as being "rushed to the majors").

Regardless, I would argue that Carlos Delgado fits the bill. He almost certainly missed 500 career HRs because he was held down too long. That's obviously a personal milestone and not necessarily something a team should care about. But even performance-wise you could make a case that he would have reached his 1998-on performance earlier if he was in the majors full time in 94 or 95 instead of putting up 3 seasons of >.900 OPS above A+ and not adjusting to the best pitching in the world.

Ryan Howard may not have been hurt performance-wise, but the Phillies almost certainly threw away a year or two at the start of his relatively short peak.

Nigel - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#357917) #

Bichette's ISO both in Dunedin and New Hampshire is .140. He is obviously very young and his combined PAs in A+ and AA are still only around 300 so no need to be worried yet, but I think ISO is the number to watch. Scouts have predicted that his swing and right center approach might limit his power at higher levels.

dan gordon - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#357918) #

I guess a pessimist about Bichette could point to his steadily declining numbers as he moves up to higher levels as an indication that he is not improving as a hitter. I remember seeing a while ago that if you do an equivalence calculation on batting average it tends to fall by about 30 points per level. Bichette hit .427 in Bluefield, so taking a AA equivalent of that would be about 150 points lower, or .277, which is right about where he is hitting now, indicating no improvement in the intervening time period. If a player is developing as a hitter, learning and getting better, you wouldn't see that size a decline from level to level. I think it's still too early to start thinking like that, as he has moved up so quickly, and is very young for AA. The pessimist would say his unconventional approach makes him unable to improve much - he is what he is.

PeterG - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#357920) #

He may have to moderate his approach.

jerjapan - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#357923) #

Thanks for the link PeterG, some pretty exciting seasons in the minors right now - although if Jack Flaherty were in the mix we'd be stacked.

Nice to see Biggio getting some love in prospect circles - clearly the prospect whose stock has changed the most since last year.

Easy to say in retrospect, but unless the goal is to re-sign JD, we missed the boat by not trading him.

Gerry - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#357926) #

Josh DeGraaf pitching for Buffalo tonight to help out with their pitching shortage.

Pompey has homered and Jansen doubled after four innings.

Gerry - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#357927) #

And Vlad just homered in the first.

cybercavalier - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#357928) #

Josh DeGraaf pitching for Buffalo tonight to help out with their pitching shortage. -- (Gerry May 14 2018 @ 07:09 PM EDT)

In an imaginary scenario, when Adam Loewen is still pitching for a Triple-A baseball team, might the Buffalo Bisons trade for a similar veteran to help out their pitching shortage?

PeterG - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#357930) #

I imagine the jays are looking for a AAA pitcher and could trade an OF to get one.

greenfrog - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#357932) #

Vlad now 2/2 so far and hitting .407. He might already be pricing himself out of the Jays� league beyond his age-26 season, and he hasn�t even graduated from the minors.

Biggio 0/0 with 2 walks. Good to see.

hypobole - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#357934) #

Jansen with 2 doubles and Pompey with 2 HR's, although he should be practising his bunting since that's what Gibby wants him doing.:(

BlueJayWay - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#357935) #

Make it three hits for Vlad. He's hitting .407 with an 1.135 OPS.

greenfrog - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#357936) #

Actually three hits brings his average up to .411.

Bichette with a couple of hits now as well, including a double.

Thomas - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#357938) #

Cavan Biggio didn't make the Batter's Box Top 30 in the offseason and I think only one member of the ML crew had him in their individual top 30 (*cough*). I think it's safe to say that would change if we redid that list now.

The more interesting question to me is where would he rank.

Where would you rank Biggio at this time?

Super Bluto - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#357939) #

Biggio exited tonight's game. Anyone hear why?

uglyone - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#357941) #

gotta promote vlad to AAA. this is hilarious.

uglyone - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#357942) #

Kevin Smith too.

Gerry - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#357943) #

Biggio slid into a fielder on a steal and jammed his neck or head.

greenfrog - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#357945) #

I say this in all seriousness - what is the best way to negotiate a long-term contract with Vladdy? Do you try to negotiate a Longoria-like contract just before calling him up this summer? Or an even more ambitious �lifetime� contract of ten years or longer? (It may be that that ship has sailed; in fact, it may well be that all ships have sailed and that he�ll want to bet on himself each year all the way down the line to free agency.) Or do you look for an opportunity in a few years for a Trout-like extension (expensive, but fair) for a few extra years of control?

In other words, can mid (or upper mid) market teams still keep superstar players for their entire careers (a la Frank Thomas or Edgar Martinez)?

It does seem to me that if Guerrero is ready to be promoted this summer, the team�s holding him back till next May might make him less inclined to agree to a extension in which he gives up some of his free agent years at a likely discount.

Gerry - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#357946) #

A lot depends on Vlad Jr. Does he need money, does Vlad Sr. give him some? Does he like the Blue Jays? Does he want to wait to get paid because he trusts his ability?

Many of the long term deals are with players who wanted to secure their future. Does Vlad Jr. want to secure his future?

It takes two to tango.

greenfrog - Monday, May 14 2018 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#357947) #

Well, Vladdy did sign with the Jays for about $4m, so presumably he�s not lacking for spending money.

My best guess is that the front office (which likes to patiently gather information) will wait and see how Vlad�s first two or three years go, and then if he�s successful push hard for an extension into the player�s late 20s at least. If Vlad is happy in Toronto, and the team�s future looks bright, he might consider it. But he might also prefer to chase the potentially bigger dollars (half a billion?) that might be on the table around 2024-25 and direct his own destiny.

Nigel - Tuesday, May 15 2018 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#357948) #

In addition to all the reasons listed above, I would have thought that for someone like Vladdy Jr. one of the key issues to signing a long term deal in Toronto would be his views on the likelihood of Rogers putting the resources into fielding a truly competitive team during his tenure in Toronto. His father lived a couple of bad years in that regard. On that score, I suspect Vladdy Jr would take a wait and see approach. On the good side, Rogers can legitimately point to providing the resources, year after year, to fielding a not terrible team. The evidence of Rogers' commitment to providing the resources to constantly be really competitive is less compelling. I wouldn't blame someone like Vladdy Jr for worrying about playing a decade for 3rd place teams in the Al East.

scottt - Tuesday, May 15 2018 @ 06:22 AM EDT (#357949) #

There's nothing a player can do to get on a competitive team until he hits free agency.
If Guerrero wanted to be playing for the Yankees, he would have signed with them.
Realistically, Guerrero would have lived a comfortable life just on his share of his dad's earnings.
The bar for him, is to make more money than his dad did, hit more homeruns, score more runs, get more hits, etc.

The risk with Guerrero is obviously injuries and aging due to his body type.
Some player want some security. Solarte has an outside contract in which he sold a percentage of all his future earning for a few million. Others want to hit the free agent market as early as possible.
Harper signed an extension. Trout signed a long contract. Machado and Betts didn't.

Rogers is obviously aware of the impact at the gate of Vlad Jr. He's in the news, fans bring signs to the games, etc...

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, May 15 2018 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#357958) #

Have to promote him to AAA at this point. The pitchers at AA aren't good enough that they are going to make adjustments to him like they will in the majors. Thus the value of facing them a second time isn't that great.

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