Pillar could use a day off during this 21 games in 20 days marathon. Pompey could fill in, ideally with a RH pitcher on the mound.

Pinch-running and playing LF against LHPs also fit.

Granderson swings at the first pitch? First time all year!

Hang on... I suppose he might have fouled one off.

I believe Granderson swung at the first pitch twice yesterday.

Interesting plan by the Rays here, starting their one inning righty reliever before going to their left-handed long man.

Interesting plan by the Rays here, starting their one inning righty reliever before going to their left-handed long man.

Is that why Grandy has already been removed for Pompey?

Granderson took the first pitch for ball 1. He swung at the next pitch. Or am in a daze?

Is that why Grandy has already been removed for Pompey?

Granderson seemed to alert Pompey that he'd be going in after he scored in the first inning, well in advance of the LHP coming in. Perhaps he tweaked something, despite looking fine running.

Can't imagine that a lefty would chase Granderson so early in the game with a short bench.

I blinked and I missed it?

How impressive is this Yarbrough outing? 5 innings, seems like 0-2 to everyone. 58 pitches. 15 retired in a row. Wowzers

Johnny Field? Johnny Hit.

Granderson has mild hamstring tightness.

Interesting plan by the Rays here, starting their one inning righty reliever before going to their left-handed long man.

Their righty went 2 innings, 36 pitches, followed by the lefty for 5 innings, 58 pitches.  It's a tandem start, in my books.  I don't see why the Jays couldn't do the same thing with Biagini and Garcia.  If Garcia falters in the 6th or 7th inning, it's much easier to deal than 2 innings earlier- you can use your high leverage relievers if the situation calls for that and the low leverage relievers if it doesn''t. 

Nice of our starters to throw batting practise to their opponents. Bodes well for the series. That was a very long day yesterday, the Jays showed it. The Jays have to stop reaching for pitches, it makes the opposing pitcher’s job so much easier. This Team needs to be a not so nice.

The way the Rays ran their tandem start last night had me thinking.  If you do it with two spots like that with the first pitcher going two innings, you could arrange a rotation like this:
1. Happ
2. Sanchez
3. Axford 2 inn/Estrada 3-5 inn/Biagini 1 inning (unless high lev)
4. Stroman
5. Biagini 2 inn/Garcia 3-5 inn/Axford 1 inning (unless high lev)

If you have a day off between the the 3 and 5 slots, Biagini could go 2 innings after Estrada or Axford could go 2 innings after Garcia.  You do have the possibility of a "complete game" if all 3 pitchers are throwing well and the game is in hand.  Overall, you should get 90-100 innings out of Axford and Biagini and 110-120 innings out of Estrada and Garcia.  

With Albert Pujols reaching the 3000 hit mark, Miguel Cabrera is the next closest active player with 2666. Can anybody guess without looking who is the next active player after him ?

Beltran or Beltre, maybe Utley?

Is Petricka a valid option?  I wrote him off as AAA depth when we made the move, but Marc Hulet's comment in the last thread has me wondering.  I assumed AA was the next vet reliever up. 

Good guesses,Greenfrog but not right. Beltran retired after last year short of 3000, and Beltre actually reached that milestone last season. I won't be on here for several hours so someone will probably get the answer.

Now Alford is on the way up, I assume Granderson to the DL.

Alford not playing today. According to Rob Longley of the Sun he may be called up with Grandy out for a few days.

Jake Petricka not on the roster according to reporters.

With Albert Pujols reaching the 3000 hit mark, Miguel Cabrera is the next closest active player with 2666. Can anybody guess without looking who is the next active player after him ?

Our own Joey Votto?

The Jays greatest asset is the 10-Day D.L. as day-to-day injuries are the hardest to evaluate. No longer do day-to-days have to rush back to playing too soon as has occurred before. Any announcement of an official move might not occur until Anthony Alford is available to play that day.

It’s getting to the point of needing a program to know who’s on the Roster. At least it’s in areas where the Jays have more depth.

Different lineup today:
Hernandez 9, Donaldson 5, Solarte 0, Pillar 8, Martin 2, Morales 3, Gurriel 4, Pompey 7, Diaz 6.

Unconventional placement in particular of Hernandez and Pillar.

Who's Hot, Who's Not

Last 14 days:

Donaldson 15pa, 209wrc+
Pillar 61pa, 159wrc+
Granderson 36pa, 155wrc+
Smoak 42pa, 143wrc+ (still not here?)

Solarte 61pa, 118wrc+
Martin 35pa, 100wrc+

Teoscar 64pa, 82wrc+
Diaz 44pa, 62wrc+
Gurriel 48pa, 36wrc+
Morales 51pa, 17wrc+
Maile 25pa, 11wrc+


Teoscar cooling down for the first time as a jay. So far it looks like mainly a babip correction (.227) that should rebound back up, but also his power coming back down into the stratosphere (.224iso). Let's see where this goes.

Of the top of my head I guessed Ian Kinsler. He's 8th in line after Cabrera.

Robinson Cano was my guess. I guessed right! He seems like a good bet to get to 3000 hits too.

Actually the next 2 after Cano surprised me a little (Jose Reyes) and a lot (Nick Markakis).

Markakis stayed healthy and hit lots of singles. He's got some okay counting stats but if he gets 3000 hits it will be a good test for the credibility of the hof

Sanchez just doesn't have his velo or his command this year.

I hope there's not something wrong.

Good guess, GabrielSyme! It would have been harder to get the next two who have been mentioned. It's interesting that hitters are still reaching the milestone 3ooo mark, but I doubt we'll see any pitchers get to the 3oo win plateau any more.

is it me or have buck and pat been polishing even more than usual this year?

Every year, it seems, the Rays have the Jays thoroughly scouted across the board, and make it obvious.

1) Aaron Sanchez is using a new grip when pitching this season because he’s doing everything he can to avoid a recurrence of his blister issue. Is it reducing his effectiveness? Too soon to tell, but maybe yes.
2) Aaron Sanchez was a big success story in 2016. He basically lost a whole year in 2017 and with it most of his confidence. That’s still not back 100% and it shows.

This year it’s more wait and see wha we have.

well so far the new grip is giving him a 94mph straight fastball, an 87mph changeup that he can't throw for strikes, and no curveball.

that's not gonna work.

Bringing in a LH to pitch to Morales? OK.

They could have brought in someone who throws underhand and they’d probably still get Morales out. Don’t think the splits matter. His bat speed is shot and he still can’t hit off speed stuff.

Sanchez definitely worrying me.

Pat said "you gotta keep playing Morales cuz he'll get his 20hr".

pompey is the only OF we have that catches that.

CB Bucknor is awful.

How is Gibbons not tossed.

yep. brutal, potentially game deciding, call.

That hit should've tied the game if it wasn't for the worst umpire in baseball.

Strike zone seems to have changed since the first few innings.

This game has had a 'Blue Jays are pitching' strike zone and a 'Blue Jays are hitting' strike zone

I said it already, I'm surprised John Gibbons is still in the game with Martin being visibly upset and the call on Pompey killing the rally.

The Jays have made 18 player moves the last three days. With Smoak back tomorrow, add two more moves.

The Jays lost to the Rays’ 4th-ish and 5th-ish Starters!

Smoak is back, Urena returned to AAA.

Gurriel homers then sits as Gibby has Solarte at second and Morales at DH. Maile back in at C.

Gurriel homers then sits as Gibby has Solarte at second and Morales at DH. Maile back in at C.

Morales has been a replacement level player over the period 2016-18 (1300 PAs).  It's painful to watch when one knows that there are younger and more interesting (and likely better) players who could be taking those PAs.  I'd rather have any of Travis, Gurriel or Cavan Biggio taking these PAs rather than Morales. 

It has been a delight this year to see the young players this year.  Today, Alford gets the start in left-field and Pompey hits the bench.  It might have been a good day to give Pillar the day off and let Pompey play some more after a couple of good games. Pillar has played 20 games in 19 days.  I guess there's a day off tomorrow, but a second day probably wouldn't hurt him. 

Morales wRC+ vRHP in 3yr splits

Yr 1-3: 313pa, 90wrc+
Yr 4-6: 1057pa, 138wrc+
Yr 7-9: 1057pa, 115wrc+
Yr 10-12: 954pa, 81wrc+

VLHP

Yr 1-3: 94pa, 60wrc+
Yr 4-6: 298pa, 93wrc+
Yr 7-9: 640pa, 108wrc+
Yr 10-12: 357pa, 148wrc+

slowly but surely he has become strictly a Lefty-Pitcher Hitter.

continuing to waste DH at bats vRHP on a well well below average bat is just needless self sabotage.

Pearce, Granderson, Grichuk, Tulowitzki, Diaz... the body count grows but opens the door for young players to get playing time. And Morales, of course.

now that Maile is Maile again, can we start the Danny Jansen countdown?

Granderson was running around today. He took himself out of a game just so he could come back fast.
That's another another good example from him.

Grichuk should be out until the 3rd week of May. Hopefully he gets a good rehab and we don't see him this month.

Diaz? Looks like a bad sprain, but the important thing is not to put weight on it and he didn't. So, we'll see.

I would no have predicted a shutout 6 innings from Estrada and mediocre performances from the other 2 starters in this series. The umpiring was terrible, too, including the video replays.

Barring injuries, they don't bring anther catcher until September.
Maile was pretty good defensively today, in a tight ball game.

Gibbons is a loyal manager so he's likely giving Morales way too much rope for that reason but it's definitely hurting the team. There is a pretty good case that he might be the least valuable player in baseball. 1B/DH types who hit like him can't even get big league jobs anymore, and he provides no value on the base paths or defensively. At some point the FO has to do something. If you feel you have a chance at the 2nd WC this year, then don't keep running him out there. If it's Rogers who doesn't want to swallow $20M of sunk cost, then that's a bad sign for the future.

Sucks about Diaz. He was starting to heat up and he's been pretty good as a back-up SS (0.3 WAR heading into today's game). I guess Gurriel is going to get a ton of PT now.

8 games in 7 days in 3 different cities, and the Jays go 4-4. I'll take it. These guys need some rest. I agree that Gibbons should rest Pillar once in a while, especially with Pompey and Alford both on the roster now.

Gurriel at shortstop and Travis at second base works for me.  Solarte DHs some of the time, and occasionally plays second or third.  Granderson plays left-field and DHs occasionally.  Pompey or Alford gets PAs as his platoon partner.  You do need a back-up shortstop, so you either need to send down the other of Pompey or Alford or release Morales.  If you have an insatiable hankering to keep Morales to DH against LHP and occasionally pinch-hit, that would be understandable. 

Maile has been much better than Martin. Jansen needs at least a full season in AAA.

"Jansen needs at least a full season in AAA."

Why, exactly?

Jansen does not need a full season in triple A, but the club would probably prefer it that way.  They can call him up in May 2019 and get the service time advantage.    That's probably what will happen unless Martin gets hurt. 

the way I see it is they are getting that extra year of service time right now by not calling him up when they easily could.

How can the Jays tell Janson the catcher is fully developed? There is no rush to promote him for good but shuttles between Toronto and Buffalo is okay as Jansen is fully developed. For plate appearance opened up by the declined Martin, how can the Jays make up for it?

With Diaz injury, is it time to promote Leblebijian and demote Alford. Does the latter need PAs to develop? On Morales, the Rays plays Brad Miller the shortstop recently recovering of  the DL as a !B. Shall the Jays try for that kind of player whose natural position is blocked on the roster?

I will be surprised if Jansen is called up when the club would burn through much of his service time while simultaneously paying Russell Martin $20 million per year to catch. Mike's guess of May 19 sounds about right, as that would give Jansen a year's time to learn whatever he can from Martin. Martin's value is becoming increasing non-performance related and it's apparent to me why no one else was offering him 5 years in the 2014/15 offseason. With almost two years to go, Martin is barely a reserve catcher on most teams and is now losing playing time to Luke Maile.

Next year at Winterfest, the season ticket subscriber meetings will be with Gil Kim and Ben Cherington on the player development team. They'd be good people to ask about their development strategy and why or whether people need time at AAA.

Martin is still an excellent catcher - the idea that a plus defensive and game calling catcher with a league average bat is not a starter on most teams is just wrong.

But I don't see what that has to do with Jansen - breaking in as a backup catcher with plenty of PA, sitting beside and learning every day from a catching gem like Russell Martin over the next year and a half is about the most perfect introduction to the big leagues I can imagine for a young catcher.

At this "transitional" phase of catchers from Martin to the younger ones, shall the Jays get a third catcher who can play multiple positions but is weak at non-catching duties such as hitting? This catcher is more preferable if he is a LHB and plays corner OF. Is Stephen Vogt an example?

With Diaz presumably going to the DL, the guy the Jays could really use now is... Danny Espinosa. It doesn't make sense to call up the very green Urena and have him sit on the bench 4 days a week. Espinosa was released April 29 and it appears he' currently a free agent.

Rumours of Russell Martin's demise are greatly premature. He's in good company with Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Brett Gardner, Ian Kinsler, Chris Davis, Jackie Bradley, Ian Desmond, Yasiel Puig, Bryan Buxton - to name a few. Actually he's hit better than any of them.

It's still early.

I'm with uglyone on Jansen, would be happy to see the Jays call him up in the next month and have him learn on-the-job with Martin as mentor. 4 starts a week for Martin, 2 for Jansen, shifting to 3/3 by the end of the year, shifting to 2/4 by the end of next year. No problem, right?

Asset management aka "Luke Maile" is not an issue - Maile has an option remaining and can be freely shuttled to Buffalo as needed this year.

Jansen will in all likelihood have an opportunity for playing time with the Jays this season. Catchers get beat up. Martin is 35 with 2 DL stints last year. Maile had a DL stint as well. That's assuming Jansen is healthy when the opportunity arises because catchers get beat up.

At the least, Jansen should have a September call-up to get mentored.

I was thinking that Morales had until Tulo was ready to hold his roster spot but I think now is probably the time or at least when Pearce returns - With expanded pitching rosters and short benches, having a dedicated DH is poor roster construction & especially with the jays having older players who could use a DH start, which made the 3 year commitment to Morales baffling when it was made - all to block EE's potential return.

As Richard has pointed out the Jays have made many players moves in the last few days.

Most are for pitchers. The need for the extra SP due to the 2nd game in Cleveland. Then The pen needed fresh arms. Excellent depth for the non essential parts of the pitching staff.

For position players the DL caused much of the players moves. The position player moves have been season long. JD's injury has been the most serious. Poor performance from Travis and Gift. Grichuk also played poorly but the DL stint took him off the team. Again good depth.

If our $20 million a year catcher, the most expensive in baseball, is indeed an exceptional defensive catcher with a great bat just waiting to break out, then all the less reason to be calling up Danny Jansen while our $20 million a year stud still has another two years to go. The offseason on Toronto internet is filled with all of the great free agent deals that internet followers are being deprived of - Prince Fielder, Dexter Fowler, David Price, James Shields, Alex Cobb, Lorenzo Cain etc. In Russell Martin the Blue Jays finally have their $20 million a year Free Agent, and now the complaint is that someone's not being called up to replace him?

There must be a sale on straw.

It's probably best if the Jays don't call up Jansen. Wouldn't want to see Gibbons show Martin any undue deference.

all to block EE's potential return.

Shark. Jumped.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-danny-jansen-development/

BUFFALO — In the eyes of Toronto Blue Jays decision-makers, Danny Jansen is no longer a prospect. He’s past that point.

“The way we see it is when you get to triple-A you’re no longer a prospect,” Cherington says. “There’s no such thing as a prospect in triple-A. You’re either ready to contribute to the big leagues or you’re not. So, once you’re here, it’s really a question of when you’ve accomplished enough toward your goals to be ready and then, when does an opportunity come up?

“Sometimes those things don’t happen at the same time. But when they do, he’s got a chance to go up and help our team.”

“It’s hard to say when that will be, but he’s doing his part,” says Cherington.
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"then all the less reason to be calling up Danny Jansen while our $20 million a year stud still has another two years to go."

fyi there's actually typically 2 spots for catchers on a roster, not 1.

from the same article:

GAME CALLING

Bisons pitching coach Bob Stanley sets a plan for Jansen and the team’s pitchers before every series. It’s a blueprint on how they should attack hitters and lately, Stanley hasn’t had to take charge.

“Overall, he’s done it himself,” Stanley says. “He’s really learned a lot in terms of calling games. He’ll ask questions once in a while, but … He’s getting better and better.”

Improving on that has been a goal for Jansen since spring training. He chatted often with Martin and Maile during camp and even had the chance to scrutinize video with them. One area of particular focus has been helping the Buffalo staff make stronger set-up pitches.

“It’s come a long way over the years,” Jansen says of his game calling. “There’s always room for improvement. The game always changes, so you have to be changing as well. But it feels pretty good right now.”

Left-hander Ryan Borucki, who has known Jansen since 2014, dating back to their days in rookie ball, takes it one step further.

“Really good. He’s been progressing. I’ve seen him since Bluefield when we both didn’t really know what we were doing,” Borucki says. “Now, he really calls a big-league game.”

Additionally, the Blue Jays feel Jansen has adapted well to the challenge of working with older pitchers. Veterans with MLB experience permeate triple-A rosters, while in the lower levels, catchers essentially work with players their own age.

“Now, he’s here with guys five, six, seven years older than him sometimes,” Cherington says. “That’s a new challenge and he’s doing really, really well with it. He’s focused on it. He’s such a genuine person and works so hard and cares. Guys pretty quickly see that from him and see that he’s putting the pitcher first and their game first and people respond to that.

“That’s just something new that he’s experiencing for the first time in triple-A and doing well with.”

TEAMMATE

Borucki, one of the Blue Jays’ top pitching prospects, is a year older than Jansen. The two have a long history in the organization — Jansen caught Borucki at three levels last season — and are close friends.

Jansen has been working on improving the mechanics of his craft behind the plate — footwork, throwing, framing pitches and blocking balls in the dirt. He’s honest and forthright with his pitchers, but what really impresses Borucki is that Jansen internalizes their work. For example, the left-hander struggled through an outing last week, allowing six runs on six hits and three walks over five innings. Their game plan simply wasn’t up to par, according to Borucki, and afterward, Jansen was perturbed.

“It’s like if I struggle, he struggles,” says Borucki. “He feels like we’re in it together. It’s a good thing when a pitcher and catcher have that relationship. When I do good, we both feel the same way.”

“He’s a great teammate and that’s important to him,” says Cherington. “To be a great teammate and have a positive influence on the people around him is also something you see on winning teams in the big leagues.

“He certainly has a lot of qualities that I’ve seen in successful major-league players on winning teams.”

"The starting catcher makes $20m so we shouldn't want our elite catching prospect backing him up" is an argument I'm having a little trouble grokking, tbh.

Given the flameout of so very many minor league position players in the Jays organization over the last 25 years, I’m quite happy at this point for the current regime to try the slow and steady development approach, especially given the fact they have actually invested a lot in development, not just scouting.

You need many players in a season. Especially if you have an old and injury prone team, like the jays. To date only about 5 players on the 40 man roster have not been called up.

I am quite sure Jansen and Borucki will get some playing time this year with the Jays. The need will arise and they will be used if healthy. Biagini, Gaviglio and Borucki will be given top consideration when a SP is needed.

SRF has entered the picture IMO. I would like to see him pitch 7+ innings at least once in May. I really don't want to see him go up and down this year. So if he gets the call up then let him play his way off the team.

Richard Urena is playing for Buffalo tonight, Devon Travis is not. Make of that what you will.

Thanks to uglyone for posting the news link which shows the perspectives from the Jays' management, in stead of posters here speculating.

Maile has been hitting the ball hard.  He's hit 9 fly balls over the season, 5 medium and 4 hard.  He has nothing to show for it, and been quite unlucky not to have a home run yet.   He's hit 10 line drives, 8 hard and 2 medium.  He's been lucky to get 10 hits (instead of 7 or 8).  He's hit 15 ground balls, 6 hard, 8 medium and 1 soft.  He's got 5 singles to show, maybe a tad on the lucky side.  Overall, it's been pretty much par for the course.  He's seen 250 pitches in 59 PAs, well over 4 per PA.  That's very good.

He's done everything you want a backup catcher to do and then some. 

Gerry I think they still have Travis taking regular rest, and he played the last 3gms.

quick google: yep

http://buffalonews.com/2018/05/06/jerry-sullivan-travis-sees-beyond-the-numbers/

"On Saturday, he led off and had two hits for the Bisons, who have won a season-high four straight. Per the parent club's orders that he sit out once every three games, Travis will likely sit out Monday's game."

Mike I like Maile too but I think we could pocket his hot start and run.

First 29pa: .632babip, 229wrc+
Last 29pa: .200babip, -6wrc+

I'm betting on fluke hot streak over maile breakout I think.

There's no rush to get Danny up today but I don't think Maile should stand in his way at all.

He's still hitting the ball harder than before even on this cold streak.  In Maile's major league career (335 PAs) his career wRC+ is 41, but he was a better hitter than that in the minor leagues.  I think that he's going to settle in at the 80-90 range.   So far this year, he's hit 29.4% line drives and hasn't popped up once.  That will help your BABIP.  

Maile won the backup catcher job and has hit better than expected . He's been quite good defensively by eye test, very good by Fangraph's fielding metrics. Not the profile of a player who's going to be optioned to the minors.

Agreed that Maille shouldn't be blocking Jansen, but the question is more about if we are actually contending than if Jansen is ready.  Give Maille another month or two to see if he has genuinely improved, and Martin time to see if we should be transitioning him to a backup role.  His glove still plays, but is he actually fading offensively?  Doesn't matter unless we are contending in July - in which case, I'm happy with whatever upgrade we can get - Jansen, Martin to a backup role, Vlad Jr. replacing Morales in the lineup, SRF to the rotation (an admitted longshot) ....  If we don't have a legit shot at the wildcard, there are a lot of pieces we could move for some young talent, and there's no need to start the clock on the kids. 

I'm happy we signed Martin and remain confident his contract will be a clear win when all is said and done.  But I see no rush to get the genuinely exciting younger prospects up to Toronto until we are genuine contenders, and with Boston and New York as dangerous as ever, I do feel we need to time our window appropriately.  We aren't good enough right now to just run the best lineup out, resource management be damned. 

Agreed jerjapan. This really is a partly transition year.

doesn't transition usually mean promoting kids who are destroying the upper minors?

and now we have to wait until the team is good before promoting kids destroying the upper minors? I thought that was what bad years were for - to play the kids?

and we're pretty good this year, and right in playoff contention - how good do we have to be before we promote the kids? an elite team before we get to see the kids play?

Sorry UO, that is not what transition means.

Anyone destroying the upper minors get promoted. Transition or no transition.

Next year will be the real transition year. No Josh and only 2 returning starting pitchers.

Also mid 30 year olds like Pearce and Granderson could be replaced by 20 something year olds.

The first twenty games the Jays were 13-7. Right now with fives games left to play in the next twenty the Jays are 6-9. At April 30th the Jays were 16-12. Right now for May, the Jays are 3-4.

This is happening with at least half the Offense struggling, an ocassional defensive misque, Relief coughing up an inopportune HR, and a Starting Rotation badly underachieving. A lot is going wrong for this Team, yet when more goes right, I don’t think they can be stopped.

Team Old
CF Pillar 29 RF Granderson 37 LF Pearce 35 3B Donaldson 32 SS Tulowitzki 33 2B Solarte 30 1B Smoak 31 C Martin 35 DH Morales 35 OF Leblebijian 27 IF Ngoepe 28
C Maile 27

Team Young Prime
CF Alford 23 RF Grichuk 26 LF Pompey 25 IF Diaz 27 IF Gurriel 24 2B Travis 27 1B Tellez 23 C Jansen 23 DH Teoscar 25 UT Biggio 23  OF Smith 25 IF Lopes 24 C McGuire 23
(uglyone- Monday, April 23 2018 @ 10:36 AM EDT)

Does these two lists offer some ideas about whom to be promoted?

Could Guerrero Jr. get the call in 2018?  Let's imagine that the club was able to make a long-term deal with him (whether it was in 2018, 2019 or 2020) so that service time was not an issue.

There is a (fairly recent) precedent.  On June 19, 2003, the Florida Marlins had a 35-39 record and were in 4th place, 13 games behind; their ace Josh Beckett had been on the DL for six weeks with an elbow sprain.  They had a 20 year old hitting phenom, who played third base (sort of), in the Southern League named Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera was hitting .365/.429/.609 after 303 PAs.  At age 18 he had been in the Midwest League and hit .268/.328/.382 and at age 19 in the Florida State League .274/.333/.421.  He was born April 18 and Guerrero Jr was born on March 16, so the year comparisons are basically fair.  In short, Cabrera was a super hitting prospect and Guerrero Jr. is (at this point) quite a bit better.

On June 20, 2003, the Marlins called up Cabrera and played him in left field.  That day, he went 1-5, but the hit was a walkoff home run in the 11th inning.   The Marlins went 56-32 over the remainder of the season, won a wild card berth and ended up winning the World Series.  Cabrera didn't actually add that much value during the regular season for the Marlins (0.6 WAR) but was the extra bat that they needed particluarly in the playoffs.  Cabrera didn't really come into his own until 2005, but by then the Marlins no longer had Ivan Rodriguez (who was their best player in 2003) and weren't really able to compete. 

I don't think that Shapiro/Atkins are thinking this way.  They appear to believe that the long-term prospects are better than they were for the Marlins, and they are aware that the dynamics of winning a World Series from the wild card slot are different than they were in 2003.  They may well be right.  It does seem to me that there are two sides to this coin, and what happens in the next six weeks particularly withe pitching staff will influence the merits of each position.  I do hope that the management team is open to both possibilities.

Does these two lists offer some ideas about whom to be promoted?

No. They are lists of players sorted by age.

The NL currently leads the AL in inter-league play 24-14 with 188-159 run scored advantage.  The AL is different this year- the Yankees and Astros look to be great, the Red Sox very, very good, and the O's, Royals and White Sox pretty bad.  I still think that they'll end up slightly ahead of the NL by the end of the year. 

" Cabrera didn't actually add that much value during the regular season for the Marlins (0.6 WAR) but was the extra bat that they needed particluarly in the playoffs."

This is the issue. In his 7th year (which would have been his first as a free agent), Cabrera put up 6 WAR. So the team paid for a 0.8 WAR season (and part of a 2.3 WAR season) to sacrifice him for a 6 WAR season. The system is stupid but there aren't many scenarios (there are a couple), I'd risk that extra year of free agency/big money to keep Vlad for a run at the 2nd wildcard this year.

For what it's worth, there's a lot of merit to sending Guerrero Jr. to Buffalo both for development purposes and for building the organization. 

"The starting catcher makes $20m so we shouldn't want our elite catching prospect backing him up" is an argument I'm having a little trouble grokking, tbh.

Likewise, the use of quotation marks it appears.

At no point did I say that Jansen was an 'elite prospect'. That seems a malleable spin term in this context. I'd say he looks like a good catching prospect. I also liked a video I saw of him where he seems like a good guy. And he participated at the Winterfest thing. I pull for him. And I hope he does well. But 'elite prospect'? I didn't say that. He didn't make the BA 100. He didn't make the Pipeline !00. I don't know how that makes him 'elite'. Most importantly, I didn't say that. Criticizing the

Nor did I say anything about him not 'backing up Martin". I was very specific about replacing Martin. I indicated that we may see Jansen in 2019, when Martin may be able to pass on skills. Until then, it makes no sense whatsoever to have a good prospect largely sitting on the bench for two years. Maile's doing well enough in that capacity. The Blue Jays aren't going to waste assets to amuse the internet. If Jansen is indeed a good starting catcher prospect, wasting two years of his service time in a backup role would be foolish.

The sooner we call up elite prospects, the sooner we can post furious diatribes when they leave as free agents in 6 years.

I guess there's at least 3 issues here:

1) whether it's appropriate to call up a top catching prospect into a backup role. For me, not only is this appropriate, but it's ideal. The backup catching role is a big one, and not like other bench roles. The backup catcher can get as much as 30-40% of the catching duties, even if the starter is mostly healthy. And imo it's much better to bring a rookie catcher into a role where he is sheltered behind a veteran 2-way leader like Martin, rather than thrust into a fulltime starter's role with no protection or guidance. Not to mention that Jansen's bat is now profiling as good enough to be one of the prime pinch hitting options on that bench.

2) How good is Maile? for me, Maile is good defensive catcher who can't hit a lick. A replacement level player. The kind of guy you like having as a 3rd catcher waiting in AA to be a stopgap in case of injury, but not actually a valuable MLBer. I love that he had a hot streak to start this year but I'm fairly certain we know what Maile is - and that while his overall line looks good at the moment it's already sinking back to where it usually ends up. IMO there's no reason to blindly stick with a replacement level player in the backup role when you have one of the best catching prospects in baseball tearing up AAA.

3) Most importantly, I think maybe people aren't realizing what Danny is actually doing in AAA. Danny was the best hitting catcher in full season ball last year and he might be again this year. This year he is the 2nd best hitting sub-24yr old in all AAA, behind only a DH prospect Franmil Reyes. he is outhitting any jays prospect we've had in AAA as far as I can remember, even the guys who busted up the easy hitting PCL. And that's just the topline numbers - his underlying numbers are even more impressive (i.e. there's no glaring thing to worry about in his line - he doesn't strike out, he walks a ton, an he doesn't need a high babip to post a great batting average, and he has very good power). What he's doing in AAA so far would be promising even for a DH prospect, let alone a C.


AAA


C D.Jansen (22-23): 159pa, 13.2b%, 11.3k%, .333babip, .316avg, .203iso, 165wrc+
3B B.Lawrie (21-21): 329pa, 7.9b%, 16.1k%, .383babip, .353avg, .308iso, 163wrc+
LF A.Lind (22-23): 337pa, 11.3b%, 18.3k%, .389babip, .336avg, .184iso, 156wrc+
LF T.Snider (20-24): 797pa, 11.4b%, 18.6k%, .384babip, .333avg, .233iso, 152wrc+
C T.D'Arnaud (23-23): 303pa, 6.3b%, 19.5k%, .374babip, .333avg, .262is, 147wrc+
1B B.Wallace (22-23): 866pa, 6.4bb%, 19.1k%, .339babip, .299avg, .186iso, 116wrc+
SS A.Hechavarria (22-23): 606pa, 7.6b%, 17.7k%, .390babip, .327avg, .120iso, 113wrc+
CF D.Pompey (21-25): 798pa, 10.3b%, 17.3k%, .330babip, .277avg, .081iso, 112wrc+
CF A.Gose (21-23): 1146pa, 9.1b%, 25.0k%, .349babip, .259avg, .113iso, 93wrc+

Not only the best topline number with a 165wrc+, but by far the higher walk rate and the lowest strikeout rate and way lower babip than most all of them, too (Vegas really gave a huge babip boost). Now Lawrie and Snider rightfully got extra credit due to their younger age, but even then, given Jansen's postion and underlying numbers, imo his performance is equally or more impressive than theirs were.

Even the guys who were a little old to be considered legit top prospects at the time can't compete with what Danny has done so far:

LF E.Thames (24-25): 474pa, 10.4b%, 17.6k%, .395babip, .342avg, .229iso, 146wrc+
1B D.Cooper (24-25): 849pa, 12.2b%, 9.1k%, .361babip, .346avg, .191iso, 141wrc+
C Y.Gomes (24-24): 335pa, 7.5b%, 21.5k%, .392babip, .328avg, .230iso, 140wrc+
CF K.Pillar (24-25): 652pa, 5.1b%, 13.3k%, .346babip, .315avg, .188isom, 134wrc+
RF T.Hernandez (23-25): 634pa, 9.5b%, 21.1k%, .324babip, .278avg, .221iso, 123wrc+
C J.Arencibia (23-24): 959pa, 6.7b%, 20.8k%, .285babip, .267avg, .263iso, 114wrc+
LF D.Smith (24-25): 534pa, 11.0b%, 16.6k%, .316babip, .274avg, .124iso, 112wrc+
RF M.Sierra (23-24): 834pa, 6.6b%, 23.0k%, .332babip, .276avg, .172iso, 109wrc+



I don't see how or why you keep this kid down much longer if he keeps hitting like this.

The service time issue is very real for a 19 year old.  Would Guerrero Jr. consider a long-term deal?  I don't know.  It's the kind of thing that you would expect his father might have some important input on.

If he doesn't want that, you can see the club's interest in making sure that his defensive ability is there before calling him up.  That might necessitate a longer wait for him. 

It’s going to be a fine needle for the front office to thread. Fundamentally, there are two competing considerations:

A. Guerrero Jr. looks like a generational player who might well be the best hitter in the majors over the next decade. The Jays should get out front of this issue, lest they find themselves in a Bryce Harper situation. This is a unique situation that warrants the team aggressively pursuing a 10-, 12-, or even 15-year contract with the player.

B. The issue of free agency doesn’t have to be addressed yet. The team doesn’t yet know what it has in Vlad, especially with regard to his defensive value. More information generally means a more informed decision (the current front office has favoured this view in relation to other players in the past). A Trout-like extension can always be negotiated in a few years.

Not sure how the team intends to solve this conundrum. No doubt it is a hot topic of debate in the front office these days.

We have already had 4 young players up. They my stick for a while.

If the Jays could get Guerrero to sign an 8-10 year deal right now, with the promise to promote him immediately after the deal is signed, I wonder if Vlad would go for it. I believe he wanted to get called up before age 20, but the Jays really have no incentive to do it since gaining that extra year by waiting until 2019 (end of April/beginning of May) far outweighs any benefit of calling him up now.

This will be an interesting test for the FO. He is a generational talent and they need him to have as many of his prime years in Toronto as possible.

as UO already posted in another thread...

John Lott @LottOnBaseball
#BlueJays closer Roberto Osuna was arrested this morning and charged with assault on a woman, Toronto police confirm. Story coming shortly.

nobody will crucify the 23yr old kid for one incident if he is 100% apologetic, doesn't make excuses, faces the music and attempts to remedy the situation.

I hope to god he has the character to do that.

I wouldn't use the word "kid" to describe Osuna.  He is 23 years old and had a daughter in September. 

I don't believe any details have emerged yet, so we have no idea if it was one incident or multiple incidents over an extended period of time.

And even if it was one incident, that doesn't mean it's excusable if he apologizes afterwards.

It it's more than an isolated incident, then absolutely, an apology doesn't suffice.

but if it's an isolated incident that he deals with maturely and genuinely, he shouldn't be crucified for it.

I sure hope he deals with it in a better manner than the likes of Yunel or Chapman did.

The Lugnuts have an early game and the offence again is firing on all cylinders.  They're ahead 10-1 in the bottom of the sixth, with 12 hits and 8 walks already. 

Kevin Smith is 4-4 with a sac fly and is now hitting .373 for the year.  He's evened out his W/K nicely to 11/18 after 16/70 last year.  He's got some pop and is 16-0 stealing bases.  He will turn 22 in July, and it would be nice to get him in Dunedin for the second half of the year, perhaps even with a taste of New Hampshire if Bichette has moved up before the end of the year.  

Of course, depending on the details, nothing he does should in response may/should matter much.

Jays have called up Petricka to replace him.

Diaz also to the DL, Urena back up.

Petricka and Urena up for Osuna and Diaz.

This presumably means that the double play combination will be Gurriel and Solarte, with Morales as the full-time DH for a while longer while Devon Travis sits in Buffalo. 

Define "crucify"

And he better have a lot of apologies in the works.

First to the woman.

Then to his teammates - he's already on admin leave, so won't be pitching for quite some time. Really nice for a team that was already under 30% chance of making the playoffs.

And then to everyone else.

Alford gets the start in left and bats ninth against Paxton tonight.

I don't mean to defend him sight unseen.

As of now, it's a charge of simple assault (not aggravated, not sexual, not causing bodily harm), and he was quickly released on bail.

This might easily be something completely inexcusable no matter how he responds to it, but it may also be something he can avoid becoming a complete pariah for. And if it is the later kind of thing - all I'm saying is that I hope he responds to it genuinely and seriously.

Sheesh. The one thing that's been  consistently good is the bullpen..

I should correct that - it seems that they released him on his own recognizance, not on bail.

Mike I was thinking about a Smith promotion even before today's game. Problem in Dunedin is Warmoth, who's not hitting well enough for promotion or poorly enough for demotion.

And I want to congratulate the scouting director for the Smith pick. If you want to pick a toolsy kid with a very questionable hit tool, 4th round is great, not 1st round 5 picks before Marcus Stroman or 2nd round 9 picks before Bo Bichette.

Diaz is apparently walking without boot and off crutches.  That's good.  He might avoid a lengthy DL trip at this rate. 

Previous mlb suspensions for assault have ranged from 15 games for Steven Wright to 51 games for Jose Reyes. Very disappointing to hear this about Osuna. This season is starting to look like another one where injuries/suspensions are becoming a major theme in the team's success/failure. At least the injuries, outside of Tulo, have been of the short term nature.

For those interested in the minute details of batting, there is a VERY long and extremely detailed analysis of Kevin Pillar's great start to this season on the Jays From The Couch website.

Good luck to Nate Pearson and a full recovery. I pitch in a couple of my slo-pitch leagues, and it's always scary when I see that kind of thing, where the pitcher gets hurt by a line drive.

I'm no Warmoth fan but he is showing much-needed signs of life:

First 14gms: 60pa, 10.0b%/20.0k%, .205bip/.173avg, .058iso, 58wr
Last 14gms: 56pa, 7.1b%/14.3k%, .364bip/.308avg, .135iso, 130wrc+

Now that's still not a great line, with not enough walks and not enough power, and too dependant on babip....but there's some signs of life at least.

Mike I was thinking about a Smith promotion even before today's game. Problem in Dunedin is Warmoth, who's not hitting well enough for promotion or poorly enough for demotion.

Fair point, but Warmoth needs some days off and Smith can play third (he's doing a lot of that already with Vicuna and Gudino in Lansing). 

Apparently Granderson is good to go. Just sitting to start tonight because there's a lefty on the mound.

My understanding was that Smith's defence is better than Warmoth's. That's no reason not to let him play 3B (and 2B if the Jays see him as a future utility player), but in an ideal world you'd probably want him to get his playing time at SS. It's too early to see Warmoth as a future utility guy, but his profile looks a bit more like one than Smith.

I don't know, Gabriel.  They could split the job.  It's only likely to be two months anyways. 

As I've said throughout, the issue with Warmoth (offensively) is always going to be how much ISO and ISP he can generate. I think that he is going to be able to sustain a good BA built on a better than average BABIP because he runs fairly well and hits the ball to all fields. I think there has been a modest improvement this year in his strike zone control. That offers some hope. I don't see him ever hitting for much power, he's pretty small and isn't close to his listed height or weight.

The problem with Warmoth as a utility guy is that he doesn't have the arm for 3B (and probably not SS in the long run). I think that means that his positional options at higher levels are probably 2B and LF (and SS in a pinch).

If Smith's strike zone control continues the way it is then I think he's already a better prospect than Warmoth (if the reports on his good defence are correct).

Osuna is suspended for up to 7 days while the league investigates.
We'll know more soon enough.

Travis' line at AAA looks a lot like Gift Ngoepe's line. OPS of .478 and .476.
Urena has been much worst, but has only played 2 games in Buffalo.
Alford has been very bad too.