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The #BlueJays look to get back on track against Texas.

(Image from The Score)


Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Friday at 7:07 pm ET - Mike Minor (1-1, 3.86 ) vs. Marcus Stroman (0-2, 8.55)
Saturday at 4:07 pm ET -Bartolo Colon (0-0, 2.59) vs. Jaime Garcia (2-1, 4.57)
Sunday at 1:07 pm ET - Martin Perez (2-2, 9.82) vs. J.A. Happ (3-1, 3.72)

Texas arrives in Toronto firmly in the basement of the AL West with a 9-17 record after dropping home series to Seattle and Oakland two games to one.

The Blue Jays are 14-10 and are looking to rebound from losing two of three to Boston and three of four in the Bronx.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers - April 27-29 | 92 comments | Create New Account
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Richard S.S. - Friday, April 27 2018 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#357029) #
With Marcus Stroman once again unable to stop the bleeding, the Jays need to score a lot of runs. That’s something they had a wee bit of trouble with lately - upon occasion.

When do the Jays pull the plug on Marcus Stroman and send him down to work on his stuff? Is Joe Biagini better?
StephenT - Friday, April 27 2018 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#357030) #
What happened to the Super Slow Mo?  Those video replays of the Diaz hit-by-pitch were the blurriest I've seen since replay review was brought in.
Chuck - Friday, April 27 2018 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#357031) #
This is some UGLY baseball.
dan gordon - Friday, April 27 2018 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#357032) #
Looks like a contest between the Rangers' bad fielding and the Blue Jays' bad base running/coaching.
Spifficus - Friday, April 27 2018 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#357034) #
I know it's wrong, but the sick side of me was kinda hoping Smoak would get thrown out at 2nd. At that point, he'd be a play at first short of an interesting cycle.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, April 27 2018 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#357037) #
I know it's wrong, but the sick side of me was kinda hoping Smoak would get thrown out at 2nd. At that point, he'd be a play at first short of an interesting cycle.

Always look at the bright side of life.
Mike Green - Friday, April 27 2018 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#357038) #
I wanted to reassure those watching at home about the Super Slo Mo. Justin Smoak was in fact moving at the pace you saw in the first inning trying to score on the double. No effects necessary.

Chuck was right. Ugliest game I have attended in a number of years. Russell Martin was throwing better than he has in a while  though.

Richard S.S. - Friday, April 27 2018 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#357039) #
Runner on third, less than two outs; unproductive out, then expected out. Something the Jays must solve.
Chuck - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#357043) #
Runner on third, less than two outs; unproductive out, then expected out. Something the Jays must solve.

Why do I feel like we've done this dance before?

  • Man on 3rd, 0-1 out: Jays .306, 10% SF (AL .311, 17% SF)
  • Man on 3rd, 2 outs: Jays .250 (AL .226)

So the Jays are right around league norms.

scottt - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#357044) #
If Stroman didn't like the last arbitration hearing, he's going to really hate the next one.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#357046) #
Morales gets another start today against Colon with a lefty starting tomorrow for the Rangers. He has not hit Colon well over his career. Needless to say, I am not a fan.
Chuck - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#357047) #
Morales gets another start today against Colon

Who would win a foot race between those two? You'd need to time the race with a calendar.

SK in NJ - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#357048) #
Morales continuing to play over better options (or in the case of Grichuk options with more upside) is frustrating. Not sure what keeping him out there accomplishes. I’d much rather see Grichuk turn things around than Morales put up league average offense at best (and at his age that might be kind).
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#357049) #
I'm finding hard not to root today for Bartolo Colon, who's 45 this month.
jerjapan - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#357050) #
When he's not shutting down the Jay's offense, I agree with you on Colon CBDC.  To my knowledge, he's the last player remaining in the bigs who is older than I am.
uglyone - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#357051) #
i think we've had the worst starting pitching in baseball so far this year.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#357052) #
1) Runers on 3B, with no one out or just one out should always score.
2) Runners on 2B and 3B, with no one out or just one out should always score at least one run.
3) Runner on 2B, with no one out might take a wee bit more, but should always score.
The Jays should be .750 at this or better. It’s a basic play, get’em over, get’em in. Make the Defender take at least one step away from the play at home) and even Morales can score.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#357053) #
League Average is hardly an ideal to seek when you are trying to make the playoffs.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#357054) #
Josh Donaldson is DH'ing today in Dunedin.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#357055) #
I don't think that the Blue Jays starters have been the worst in the league.  When you look at their starters vs. the relievers this year, it looks like everything has worked in favour of the relievers and against the starters.  Their underlying xFIP- is very comparable, but the starters have lost the HR/FB and batted ball lotteries, and the relievers have won both.  The starters have given up somewhat fewer line drives, somewhat more pop-ups and somewhat more hard hit balls.  It wouldn't be a shocker if the relievers ended up doing a little better than their xFIP- and the starters a little worse, but the magnitude is ridiculous (relievers 98 xFIP-, 51 ERA-; starters 100 xFIP-, 122 ERA-).  Gibbons has often made defensive changes late, particularly to insert Grichuk, which might help the relievers some.

If Donaldson is able to play third base, the Jays do have many options for the DH slot which would have the benefit of improving the defence.  This, in turn, might help the starters go longer into games. 

uglyone - Saturday, April 28 2018 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#357058) #
yeah i looked at the numbers and they're not the worst....but they've een really bad - like collectively replacement level bad.


on another note - all we keep hearing about is how badly we need a multi-inning reliever....all while for some reason we are forcing biagini to be a bad AAA starter.

I mean, Borucki is a better choice for #6 sp when we need one.
PeterG - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#357060) #
Ramirez up to help pen. Travis nameplate missing according to Ben Wagner.
Chuck - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#357061) #
Ramirez up to help pen.

That seemed inevitable. If the Travis demotion is true, the roster now has 3 players for 2B/SS/3B (with Martin the emergency 4th). It's probably safe to assume that the 8-man bullpen will be a fixture in Toronto, so Donaldson's eventual return will mean who gets sent away? Gurriel?

Morales quietly takes a seat at the end of the bench, refusing to make eye contact, comfortable only in the safety that the team's remaining 20M liability provides him.

PeterG - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#357062) #
It has now been announced that Travis has been optioned to Buffalo.
uglyone - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#357064) #
Last 14 days:

Travis: 25pa, 4.0b%/12.0k%, .263bip/.261avg, .217iso, 115wrc+
Gurriel: 22pa, 0.0b%/13.6k%, .222bip/.227avg, .136iso, 55wrc+
uglyone - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#357065) #
Last 14 days

LF Granderson 29pa, 194wrc+
CF Pillar 51pa, 163wrc+
RF Hernandez 55pa, 159wrc+
DH Pearce 32pa, 122wrc+
2B Travis 25pa, 115wrc+
C Maile 24pa, 107wrc+
1B Smoak 49pa, 101wrc+
3B Solarte 51pa, 73wrc+
SS Diaz 40pa, -3wrc+

C Martin 31pa, 63wrc+
OF Grichuk 26pa, 61wrc+
IF Gurriel 22pa, 55wrc+
UT Morales 28pa, 7wrc+
uglyone - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#357066) #
2016-2018 (2 seasons plus this season so far)

Pearce: 108wrc+ vRHP, 137wrc+ vLHP
Morales: 83wrc+ vRHP, 150wrc+ vLHP

we continue to use the wrong guy as a platoon guy.
dalimon5 - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#357067) #
Good to see management and coaching making adjustments to line up and roster early in season to try to keep team at .500 or above before Donaldson and Tulo and hopefully eventually Martin can return to above average production.

I think Travis is a waste if he isn't starting so management is more than willing to try to help him get "sorted out" in AAA with a return to starting. Gurriel was always referenced by Atkins as someone the team wanted to develop as a super utility type which makes sense.

The decision is probably already made on Morales to use him as insurance only and eventually cut bait. That decision could be one that will play out over the season or at least to the All Star break as management may not want to cut cold one of the "veterans" of the team. Maybe he is the leader of the non-English speaking contingent of the club house.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#357068) #
I would have preferred to send down Diaz or Gurriel than Travis. I think travis deserved a little more time to work his way back into things. He's shown to be more productive overall than either of those guys once he's back into things.
scottt - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#357069) #
Diaz suffers from the same ailment as Morales. A fastball deficiency in their diets.

They had to keep Gurriel or start  Diaz every day.

Solarte is a good first pitch hitter and the opponents have figured that out as well.

Still, it's mostly the pitching that has been bad, starting with Stroman in New York.



scottt - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#357070) #
This keeps looking like the 2009 season.
I thought that the starting rotation was too good for that to happen, but Stroman has turned into Ricky Romero.
Hopefully, that's doesn't last too long.

I thought Loup was meant to be the 2 inning guy, but he was getting hammered early on.

uglyone - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#357071) #
stroman's numbers still indicate more bad luck than bad performance, but Estrada's numbers are much less encouraging. he may be toast. Garcia also not giving a lot of reason for hope.
Chuck - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#357072) #
I would have preferred to send down Diaz or Gurriel than Travis.

Trouble is, if you're only going to carry 3 guys for 4/5/6, one of them can't be Travis since he sits out every third day. You need 3 guys who you can run out every day. Of course, with no backups at 4/5/6, Morales has no one left to pinch-hit for... except Pearce, of course.

Grichuk has no options, or he'd have been sent down. Morales can't easily be made to go away. So you're stuck making Travis the victim.

Russ Atkins, in tightly controlled GM-speak, seemed to suggest as much re Grichuk and Travis. He did not mention Morales and I don't know that I've ever heard any of the broadcast team ever float concerns about Morales clogging up the roster.

PeterG - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#357073) #
Danny Espinosa has been released by the Bisons.
scottt - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#357074) #
Stroman's stuff is fine, but he said himself that he has no idea why his control comes and goes.
scottt - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#357076) #
One thing is sure, Bautista would not have caught that ball.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#357078) #
I am disappointed that Travis was sent down. You could play Travis, Diaz and Gurriel  two days of every three with Gurriel moving around the middle infield. .
GabrielSyme - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#357079) #
I suspect the Travis move is, in significant part, to see whether the Jays can get an extra year out of him before he hits free agency. And given his performance so far, it's hard for him to complain.
Chuck - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#357080) #
I am disappointed that Travis was sent down.

My theory was that on paper, Grichuck or Morales would have been their preferred option to "send down" -- fully recognizing that they couldn't send either down -- given that the removal of either could have been accommodated by this roster.

Who would you have removed from this roster to accommodate reliever #8 and to keep Travis up? What else works?

I disagree that Travis' impending free agency at age 30 had any bearing on this decision. I can't see the upside of pushing his FA off to age 31.

SK in NJ - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#357081) #
I doubt an extra year of Travis at age 31 really means a whole lot at this point.

As mentioned, he has options left, and until the FO decides to cut bait on Morales, the roster crunch is always going to be like this. Not having enough optionable players is going to hurt this season.
scottt - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#357082) #
I think they want to give him more at-bats and he'll be DHing in AAA  on his third days.
Gibby is not letting go of Hernandez.

Given that Grichuk could play centerfield, Pillar is hanging on to his focus at the plate.

Shoeless Joe - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#357083) #
Doesn't Morales have to stick in AAA to keep his pay? Being completely unproductive and grossly paid is the same as having an option right?
Mike Green - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#357084) #
I would prefer if they had cut bait on Morales, Chuck. I am not sure that they need an 8th reliever just yet, FWIW.
grjas - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#357085) #
Hmm. Not too sure Stroman’s performance to date relates to luck. This article is telling:

http://jaysfromthecouch.com/2018/04/29/a-deeper-look-at-marcus-stromans-start-to-2018/

However, Stroman is one of the harder workers and experiments with new approaches when things sour, so I suspect he will turn it around, hopefully soon.
Chuck - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#357086) #
I would prefer if they had cut bait on Morales, Chuck.

You ain't alone there. But I guess we've kicked that horse to death already.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#357087) #
John Gibbons has indicated that Josh Donaldson might be activated from the D.L. on Friday. I think this is premature until he’s hitting well and throwing freely from 3rd to 1st like always.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#357088) #
Marcus Stroman throws 6-9 different pitches from several different deliveries. Unless he’s breaking it down to 3-4 pitches and just the same delivery everytime - keeping it simple - there’s no quick fix in sight. It took him over one full month just to tell someone he couldn’t get loose and it cost him most of Spring Training. How soon will he figure this out? I think mid-May or later.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#357089) #
The Jays face Lance Lynn tomorrow night. Kendrys Morales is 3-3 with 2 Homers against Lynn. He will probably be in the lineup...
dan gordon - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 03:07 AM EDT (#357090) #
I was disappointed to see Travis sent down as well. He started last season terribly, and really turned it around in May. Looked like he was just starting another big turnaround when he was shipped out. I think they need his bat. Diaz has been disappointing, and I don't think Gurriel is quite ready to be a big hitter in the big leagues yet. I'd like to see him have at least half a season in Buffalo, but for now, Diaz and Gurriel are in there every day.

Agree about not calling Donaldson back too soon. I see it happen so often that a player is out for a long time, or misses much of the spring, and then gets hurt and misses another couple of weeks, like Donaldson. They need a bunch of games to get their timing right, but they get called up after 3 or 4 rehab games, and then are terrible the first week back. Get him 25-30 AB's at least before bringing him up.
Glevin - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 05:21 AM EDT (#357091) #
Stroman's bad performance is not about luck. He is walking 5.3 guys per 9 innings and has the 4th worst hard contact rate of any pitcher in baseball with at least 20 innings. Last 2 years, he had hard contact rates of around 32%. This year it's almost 48%. So, he is putting lots of people on base and hitters are pounding the ball off of him. XFIP doesn't hate him because he gives up a lot of grounders and strikes out guys but it doesn't take into account how hard they are smashing grounders. Hard hit grounders are worse than soft flyballs.

I like sending Travis down. He needs to find his game again. Let him get hot in AAA and call him back up. If we could do the same for Grichuk, it would be great, but he doesn't have options. I can't see the Jays going much longer with Morales unless he starts to mash.
cybercavalier - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 06:11 AM EDT (#357092) #
I was disappointed to see Travis sent down as well. He started last season terribly, and really turned it around in May. Looked like he was just starting another big turnaround when he was shipped out. I think they need his bat. Diaz has been disappointing, and I don't think Gurriel is quite ready to be a big hitter in the big leagues yet. I'd like to see him have at least half a season in Buffalo, but for now, Diaz and Gurriel are in there every day. (dan gordon April 30 2018 @ 03:07 AM EDT)

Recently released players with many MLB innings or PAs are listed below. Maybe they can help out in Buffalo as substitution players and that role would be used later.
Hitters: OF Tyler Collins age28 L/L 502 MLB AB. OF Domonic Brown L/L age30 1591AB 1B Jesus Montero age28 R/R 806
Pitchers: Aaron Laffey age33 L/L 494.1 MLB IP, Luis Perez age33 L/L 112.0 IP, Ernesto Frieri R/R age32 303.1 A.J.Griffin age30 R/R 478.2 Josh Smith age30 R/R 127.1 Steve Delabar age34-35 R/R 194.2

I think Travis is a waste if he isn't starting so management is more than willing to try to help him get "sorted out" in AAA with a return to starting. Gurriel was always referenced by Atkins as someone the team wanted to develop as a super utility type which makes sense. (dalimon5 - Sunday, April 29 2018 @ 11:42 AM EDT)

Particularly for hitting, 3B/2B/LF/RF/CF/SS Ty Kelly age29-30 S/R is hitting well in Las Vegas.
uglyone - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#357093) #
when 55% of men on base are scoring, clearly there is plenty of bad luck involved, even if there are clearly problems other than bad luck as well.

as for wanting travis and grichuk to "get hot"....last 14 days:

Grandy 194
Teoscar 186
Pillar 176
Travis 115
Pearce 108
Maile 106
Solarte 95
Smoak 93
Grichuk 77
Martin 73
Gurriel 69
Morales 7
Diaz -13
Glevin - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#357094) #
"as for wanting travis and grichuk to "get hot"....last 14 days:"

Again, you are using arbitrary periods to argue something that is just plain wrong. Take a shorter or longer period of time (literally any period of time) and Travis is worse and even this small period is hardly "hot". A player who over 66 PAs has a WRC+ of 25 with an 18/2 K/BB ratio by definition cannot have ever been "hot" or even lukewarm. He has been awful.
uglyone - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#357095) #
arbitrary?

Last 7 days: 106wrc+
Last 14 days: 115wrc+
Last 30 days: 44wrc+
Last calendar yr: 101wrc+

now which is the misleading arbitrary small sample?
dalimon5 - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#357096) #
Ugly,

You're being silly again by using 30 PA or less.
uglyone - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#357097) #
that's the same number of PAs he was "cold" for.
rpriske - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#357098) #
I am very glad that Travis was sent down. He shouldn't be starting over Solarte or Gurriel, yet he needs work to get out of this slump. Let him do it in Buffalo.

I am, of course, disappointed he was sent down for a surplus reliever.

Bye bye to Espinosa and Girodo. I wanted Espinosa up earlier but with the play of Gurriel there was no place for him.

The big question now is, how long do they give Grichuk and Morales? It should be longer for Grichuk but it WILL be longer for Morales...
uglyone - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#357099) #
has any kid ever had to do less to replace a quality veteran than Lourdes Gurriel Jr?
Parker - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#357100) #
has any kid ever had to do less to replace a quality veteran than Lourdes Gurriel Jr?

Probably whoever they call up to replace Stroman, if he doesn't get his act together.
Nigel - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#357101) #
Just like Morales remaining on the roster, multi-million dollar major league contracts pretty much guarantee you a shot whether your play has earned it or not. That and the reality that Diaz might actually be the player in need of sending down means that Gurriel isn't heading anywhere anytime soon.
hypobole - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#357102) #
FO's always have too much information and therefore never know what tgey're doing.
pubster - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#357104) #
"stroman's numbers still indicate more bad luck than bad performance"

You must not be looking at the right numbers ;)
Mike Green - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#357108) #
Leaving aside the particular players, I am not a fan of a 3 man bench in general but especially one that does not have a middle infielder. It invites trouble.
hypobole - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#357110) #
When looking at numbers, it's highly recommended to always use the one's that fit your narrative.
Gerry - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#357114) #
Grichuk to DL with a sprained knee, Ngoepe up again.
rpriske - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#357119) #
Gift? Really? This seemed like a perfect time for Alford.
cybercavalier - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#357121) #
Well, I prefer Smith Jr. the lefthanded batter. When Pompey is off the DL, Pompey is up.

About the 2B situation, would the Jays look for help outside of the organization. Mets' super utility aged 29-30 Ty Kelly is hitting well in Las Vegas. We let Espinosa go, how about getting Ty Kelly from the Mets? A minor league contract would hurt; Kelly would more or less what was expected in performance from Espinosa.
cybercavalier - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#357122) #
*erratum: A minor league contract would not hurt.


bpoz - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#357124) #
Double header May 3 in Cleveland. Biagini is available.
cybercavalier - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#357125) #
Hope Donaldson comes back healthy & Productive - he's such a natural fit for Atlanta in July if things go south for the Jays. (85bluejay April 30 2018 @ 04:58 PM EDT)

How about a Donaldson trade for prospects and ship one of the prospect and salary dump of Morales to another team?
-----------------------
If AA were able to dump Vernon Wells and Riccardi, Raul Mondesi, how about Atkins, Morales?
Shoeless Joe - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#357126) #
I really would have preferred Travis back, but seeing Ngope coming back our way I only miss having Tulo around that much more.
scottt - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#357127) #
Without Grichuk they only have 5 outfielders.

I saw that Mookie Betts has been out of the Boston lineup with a sore hamstring  and I immediately though that the Jays caused that by making him run the bases so much.

The Yankees pitchers have been dominant (mostly) and it seems that they are pushing them to throw less fastballs.

The Twins are off to an awful start and have only won one game without Buxton, who wasn't hitting much strangely. Logan Morrison has been Morales bad so far. Miguel Sano is out of the lineup for a third day with also a hamstring issue.

hypobole - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#357129) #
"Leaving aside the particular players, I am not a fan of a 3 man bench in general but especially one that does not have a middle infielder. It invites trouble."

Be careful what you wish for, Mike, you may get a troubling gift.
vw_fan17 - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#357131) #
I really would have preferred Travis back, but seeing Ngope coming back our way I only miss having Tulo around that much more.

Isn't there a limitation, in that you can't recall someone until 10 days after they get sent down, or something? Or was it possible to recall Travis the day after he was optioned?
dan gordon - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#357133) #
You can recall a player before the 10 day requirement if you are replacing a player who was placed on the DL, so in this case, the Jays could have recalled Travis. The fact that they recalled Ngoepe instead is baffling to me. I don't get what they see in him. The only thing I can think of is that they plan to send him back down when Donaldson is activated (Friday?) and they don't want Travis to get yo-yo'd back and forth like that, but I'd much rather have Travis available for the intervening games.
hypobole - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#357134) #
I thought the rule was players could be recalled earlier in a DL situation (ie recalled for Grichuk being DL'd), but not for 10 days if Ramirez, for instance, was sent back down.
Mike Green - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#357146) #
Troubling gift? Perhaps not. What about the gift that keeps on giving?
Parker - Monday, April 30 2018 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#357148) #
The gift that keeps giving away outs, maybe.
Glevin - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 05:24 AM EDT (#357155) #
"arbitrary?

Last 7 days: 106wrc+
Last 14 days: 115wrc+
Last 30 days: 44wrc+
Last calendar yr: 101wrc+

now which is the misleading arbitrary small sample?"

All of them. Why are you using "last 7 days" for a player who hasn't been in the majors for the last 4 days? Travis' last 7 days in the majors, he had a WRC+ of 78. last 2 weeks it was 100, and last 3 weeks it was 66. Which of those shows a "hot" player? Travis in 66 PAs has a WRC+ of 24. This in itself is a very small sample size and he has been overall, a terrible offensive player. Stop arguing things that are so obviously untrue. You are seriously trying to argue that 2/11 with a HR constitutes a hot player. I hope Travis can find some rhythm in AAA and be back up soon but the idea that he was on any kind of good streak is patently absurd.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#357159) #
I hope Travis can find some rhythm in AAA and be back up soon but the idea that he was on any kind of good streak is patently absurd.

Combined with Travis' ineffective play over the past season+ is his chronic inability to stay off the DL. Since the beginning of 2017 Travis has an OPS+ of 72. Worse, he has actually played less than a season and a third in his major league career, while spending most of 2015/16/17 on the DL. AAA is a good place to accommodate the 'reintegration strategy' of having him play part-time. Hopefully, he's also able to pick up his offence.

He has no tradability at this point; no one would be interested in a acquiring a guy with a 24 OPS+, with limited defensive ability, who can't stay off the DL. If he is able to maintain the two games in three schedule, and then increase that to something like full-time play later in the year, then I think the best thing for Travis is to be moved to a team where he would not have to play on turf. I've never heard of the turf helping anyone's health, and as someone who has accumulated multiple injuries at a young age, he seems like the worst possible candidate to play on turf. My own guess is that barring an extraordinary turn-around, we won't be seeing Devon Travis back in Toronto anytime soon, if at all. I'd like to be more optimistic for him, he's a good kid, but I can't think of a position player who started out at 24 then spent 60% of the time on the DL over the next three years due to multiple injuries, who went on to a successful career.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#357163) #
this is all so bizarre.

the people who are using 60pa against travis are complaining about other people using small samples.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#357164) #
All of them. Why are you using "last 7 days" for a player who hasn't been in the majors for the last 4 days? Travis' "last 7 days in the majors, he had a WRC+ of 78. last 2 weeks it was 100, and last 3 weeks it was 66. Which of those shows a "hot" player? Travis in 66 PAs has a WRC+ of 24. This in itself is a very small sample size and he has been overall, a terrible offensive player. Stop arguing things that are so obviously untrue. You are seriously trying to argue that 2/11 with a HR constitutes a hot player. I hope Travis can find some rhythm in AAA and be back up soon but the idea that he was on any kind of good streak is patently absurd."


Those are literally the first four time period splits available on fangraphs.

If you think using all the publicly available splits is me manipulating data, and you pointing at the one single split that makes him look bad is just being real, that's up to you.
Parker - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#357167) #
this is all so bizarre.

the people who are using 60pa against travis are complaining about other people using small samples.


Based on this year's small samples, Travis has been all-around horrible and Gurriel has been pretty good, especially on defence.

Travis 2018 bWAR/650 = -6.9
Gurriel 2018 bWAR/650 = 6.3
Parker - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#357168) #
Sorry, those should be bWAR650, not bWAR/650.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#357171) #
I know we aren't allowed to use our eyes and draw conclusions, but Gurriel has looked much better out there in every facet of the game than Travis in this small sample. I particularly love that he hustles out of the box; there's a couple of Jays who can learn a lesson from him, guys who never run hard on routine grounders.

The fact that Travis didn't return when Grichuk hit the DL and they went with Ngoepe instead tells me that the front office thinks there are areas Travis needs to work on, whether it's health, hitting, running, and/or defense. This is best done away from the spotlight and sans pressure.

If Devon is taking his time to report to Buffalo, perhaps he does not agree.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#357172) #
I don't even want to poop on Gurriel. He looks intriguing enough to me. There's plenty of room for both him and Travis.

but how does Kendrys look to your eyes? and to bwar650? and to fwar650? and in bigger samples beyond this year?

Parker - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#357175) #
but how does Kendrys look to your eyes? and to bwar650? and to fwar650? and in bigger samples beyond this year?

I'm pretty sure that at this point everyone here knows you don't think much of the Morales signing, and I don't know who you think you're trying to argue with - I can't see where 92-93 ever tried to make a case for keeping Morales. I don't think ANYONE here has tried to defend the decision to keep Morales as a baseball decision. I thought we were defending the decision to keep Gurriel over Travis.

On another note, Encarnacion has a 57 OPS+ this year. I suppose you'd be pushing for the Jays to dump his contract too, so they could pay $80M for one good season that still wouldn't have gotten the Jays to the playoffs last year.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#357176) #
He looks horrendous, and ought to visit the Herzig Eye Institute (or Bochner, the Jays can probably get him a good deal). It's still too early and unnecessary to cut bait.

I have $100 on the under for Morales' total HRs at 27.5, and $150 on the over for Happ's total Ws at 10.5. Both bets are looking good, but things can change in a hurry in baseball.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#357178) #
"On another note, Encarnacion has a 57 OPS+ this year. I suppose you'd be pushing for the Jays to dump his contract too"

try to keep up parkie - i'm the guy saying we shouldn't be demoting the guys with good track records who have started off slowly.

given that you always have to argue against me, you are now the one arguing that we should ditch guys based on meaningless sample sizes. congrats.
Parker - Tuesday, May 01 2018 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#357185) #
given that you always have to argue against me, you are now the one arguing that we should ditch guys based on meaningless sample sizes. congrats.

Who gets to decide what's "meaningless", though? As others have pointed out, you yourself use a lot of small sample sizes to support your (many, many) otherwise-unsupported narratives.

If you're referring to my support of the decision to keep Gurriel over Travis, I don't see why a small sample of a guy who's been good can't trump a much larger sample (since the start of 2017, in this case) of a guy being bad and/or injured. I guess I do need to try harder to keep up, because I can't find any post where I argued in favor of releasing Travis. I'm all in favor of letting him figure things out in the minors.
dan gordon - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 04:27 AM EDT (#357222) #
Kind of surprised to see people saying Gurriel is currently better than Travis. I like Gurriel quite a bit, but I think he's not ready for the big leagues yet. He hasn't even played in AAA. In his small sample size in the big leagues he's slashing .229/.250/.314/.564. He looked kind of overmatched in Tuesday's game, going 0 for 5 with 3 K's. Travis has demonstrated, in 2015/16, that he has the ability to be a terrific player, hitting .300 or better in each year, with OPS numbers of .859 and .785. In 163 games in those 2 years, very slightly more than a full season, he hit 19 HR's and even stole 7 bases, and produced a total WAR of 5.3. That's an all-star. Since then he's battled injuries and now appears to finally be healthy. I consider him a core player in the Blue Jays' future.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 02 2018 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#357224) #
sorry, parkie, but falsely accusing me of relying on small samples by referring either to this thread where a small sample was referred to in direct response to the notion of Travis needing "to get hot" (hotness being by definition small sample) or past instances when the small samples were literally the entire sample we had, doesn't change the fact that I am clearly not the one relying on artificially small samples here to make personnel decisions, and you guys are.

as for deciding what is insignificant, I think we can all agree that 66pa is insignificant, especially when the last half of those pa contradict the first half of them.
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