In other news the Jays have become the oldest team in baseball with an average age of 31.01.

After this season it should drop as Curtis Granderson (37+), Steve Pearce (34), Marco Estrada (34+), J.A. Happ (35) and possibly Seung-Hwan Oh (35+) all become Free Agents after this Season.

Feels odd having 7 games in 7 days to start the season. I like it.

If interested, Jays Journal previews the Chicago Starters for this series quite well.

Seven home games is the best. None of the Chicago Starters have pitched this Season, that might help the Jays.

After this season it should drop as Curtis Granderson (37+), Steve Pearce (34), Marco Estrada (34+), J.A. Happ (35) and possibly Seung-Hwan Oh (35+) all become Free Agents after this Season.

Even the guys I would consider "young" on the Jays are pretty old - Maile (27), Travis (27), Diaz (27), Ngoepe (28)

I would have never guessed that the Jays' youngest position player was Grichuk (26)

I hate Wellington Castle. And I hate mixtures of English and Spanish names

Is he going by Castle? I'm pretty sure I saw and heard Castillo.
In other news, I like the Garcia signing more now. I hope he stays healthy.

Next year could be a massive shift - Bo 21 next year replacing Tulo (33 this year), Vlad (20 next year) replacing Donaldson (32 this year), Biagini (29 next year) replacing Estrada (34 this year).

So the high age thing could be a 2018 only thing.  With 2 superkids coming up next year most likely, plus a batch of older guys being done after this year unless the Jays re-sign them a massive drop should happen.

I like what I've seen from Garcia so far. He looks like a useful crafty lefty to have in the rotation.

I liked the Garcia signing when it happened, and I think he looks great here. He got in a mini jam due to some questionable umpiring in the 3rd - the HBP didn't hit anything except dirt, and ball 4 to Moncada was actually strike 3 according to the pitch tracker, but Garcia got out of it. He's been very good when healthy, and they're saying he feels really good for the first time in 3 years, FWIW. Nice cheap option on Garcia for next year, too.

Yes John, and also Alford and Hernandez possibly being in the OF next year, and possibly Jansen behind the plate taking a bigger role than Maile this year. I do expect there is a good chance of resigning Estrada, to go along with Sanchez, Stroman, and Garcia, with Biagini/Borucki/Guerrieri/Pannone battling for a spot. If a couple of those guys excel in AAA this year, then maybe they pass on extending Estrada and open a 2nd spot.

In the entire existence of the Blue Jays, there seems to be a rule the Jays follow. When facing a rookie Pitcher or someone they have never faced before, they are forbidden to beat them. Because they almost never do.

Finally, rain.

Be nice to close this one out. It's been a while since the team actually had a winning record.

Diaz has had a nice night, both at the plate and in the field. Encouraging.

Solid. The long patient at-bats eventually paid off and the defence was reliable. It wasn't a Picasso but still fun to watch and satisfying.

16,629 at the game.

Or more accurately tickets sold.

Diaz has legit power and a good arm. Granderson and Grichuk bring a lot defensively and Solarte is so much fun to watch. 

nothing would make me happier this year than jays fans not showing up, to put the fear of god into shapkinogers, but then the jays winning anyways because i like when they win.

Wait - didn't the Star/CBC reveal that a huge portion of Jays' tickets were snapped up by scalpers? Wouldn't that count as tickets sold? Also,I thought they changed a few years back from counting tickets sold to counting bums in seats. I could be wrong. Would love some clarification if anyone knows...

Isn't attendance down due to the Leafs not sucking? If not, how do you explain last year?

nothing would make me happier this year than jays fans not showing up, to put the fear of god into shapkinogers,

No doubt Rogers Communications is interested more in the views of the 'shapkins' 'shatkins' internet parasites than those who actually pay for seats.

Wait - didn't the Star/CBC reveal that a huge portion of Jays' tickets were snapped up by scalpers? Wouldn't that count as tickets sold? Also,I thought they changed a few years back from counting tickets sold to counting bums in seats. I could be wrong. Would love some clarification if anyone knows...

The Star and the CBC 'revealed' that the Blue Jays, like every major league team, get a portion of tickets sold on Stubhub. That's supposed to be a big scandal. Attendance is tickets sold. http://www.baseballpilgrimages.com/attendance/major-league-2017.html

The Jays require a certain type of tickets sold to get first choice on Playoff ticket purchases. Playoffs are where the really big money is for scalpers. Last season, plus all the doom and gloom that been coming out of Toronto’s media since then chased them away as well as regular Fans. Three game winning streaks gets little or no play/hype in this market. No one wants to encourage better attendence for games if it means admitting you’re wrong about the Team. That attitude must change.

≤I≥Is he going by Castle?

I was joking about the name as 'castillo' is 'castle' in English. He killed the Jays with the Orioles. And continued tonight. He's one of those guys, like Jacques Jones, who does much better vs Toronto than anyone else.

"No doubt Rogers Communications is interested more in the views of the 'shapkins' 'shatkins' internet parasites than those who actually pay for seats"

heh. your powers of logic, inference and deduction are impressive.

Jacques Jones and Wellington Castillo

So were you were hating mixtures of French and English names prior to hating mixtures of Spanish and English names?

There were two ticket reports. Shapiro said that 50% of last years season tickets were sold to scalpers. These buyers disappeared this year. Therefore we have a crowd of 16,000. As far as I recall crowds in 2016 weren't huge until the Jays took off in the second half.

The StubHub thing was different.

nothing would make me happier this year than jays fans not showing up, to put the fear of god into shapkinogers, but then the jays winning anyways because i like when they win.

I gave up my seasons' when I realized ownership would not spend at a level that is commensurate with the market during the 15-16 offseason. I actually think Shappykins have done reasonably well given their constraints.

If they ever spend up to the tax threshold during a contending window like other upper-middle class teams (eg. the Cubbies this year, the Tigers in the past etc.), I may revisit propping up that sad attendance figure with a couple of season tix again.

Ummm... Cubs are a big market by any measure other than raw tickets sold which is limited just because of the stadium size which they compensate for via higher prices I'm certain (haven't checked).  The Cubs are a massive TV draw and I don't see any reason for them to be listed as anything but 'big market', especially if you put, say, the Red Sox as big market (which I think you have to).

The Tigers, on the other hand, are a mid-size - smaller than the Jays by any measure.  No question though that the Jays need to win 90+ and be in contention to draw the 3+ million crowds and the 1 million+ TV ratings.  With that Rogers makes a very nice profit I'm sure and can easily afford a $200 million payroll if they choose to.  This upcoming winter will be interesting with the 2 big kids coming and a few other kids fighting for OF slots.  DH/1B are signed for one more year then clear.  I'd suspect the Jays will look seriously at where the team ends up this year and then decide what to do - starting pitching is the biggest issue for 2019 with Estrada and Happ being free agents and Stroman and Sanchez getting closer to free agency (after 2020, Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, Grichuk, and Travis are all free agents).  So long term deals might happen next offseason for a few of them to try to avoid free agency with all of them.  I suspect the Jays have probably done some feelers on Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna's agents while waiting for Pillar & Travis' agents to call them instead. 

So next year will be a big transition year but 2021 could be too.  I'm sure that Sapkins doesn't want that as the kids (Bo, Vlad, Alford, etc.) will be just settling in then and you don't want to need to get a new closer, 2 new starters, a new CF, new 2B, new RF at that point.  Post 2018, pre2019 is the time to do the long term deals.  How long, how much are the big challenges.

There was a lot to like in that game. 3 game win streaks are a lot of fun, and many people are contributing with hitting, base running, fielding, and pitching all having positive aspects. Keep rolling!

This has nothing to do with the Jays, but something I wanted to mention. I was watching baseball highlights yesterday and a young guy on Baltimore ( I don't remember his name ) laid a perfect bunt down the third base line against the shift that Minnesota had on against him.

Several Twins players were huffing and puffing about it after the game,how it wasn't right, etc. Apparently this was against " the code " to do this, and it ticks me off to no end. I can see embarrassing a pitcher after a home run as a no-no, but to me the Baltimore player just made a smart baseball play. It's not easy to make a good bunt and he just took what the Twins gave him. For that matter, if bunting against the shift is against " the code ", then why isn't the shift itself against " the code " since it takes what would normally be a hit away from a batter.

I rarely have seen anybody try to do this against the shift. Is this why ? That it wouldn't " look right " and somehow be showing up the other team ? Anyway it's just a small thing but I just wondered if anybody else had seen it or feels the same way about this scenario.

Moderators, this might be a good time for a reminder to all about civility on the site.

"Several Twins players were huffing and puffing about it after the game,how it wasn't right, etc. Apparently this was against " the code " to do this, and it ticks me off to no end. I can see embarrassing a pitcher after a home run as a no-no, but to me the Baltimore player just made a smart baseball play. It's not easy to make a good bunt and he just took what the Twins gave him. For that matter, if bunting against the shift is against " the code ", then why isn't the shift itself against " the code " since it takes what would normally be a hit away from a batter."

The unwritten rules in baseball are mostly terrible. If this was a no hitter, sure, it would have been a bit petty but it wasn't and he was just trying to get on base. The entire purpose of these rules seems to be to keep the game as boring as possible and it's baseball's fault for not enforcing a lot of this stuff. Look at Hunter Strickland and Bryce Harper. Strickland was upset that Harper hit 2 massive HRs off of him 2 years before so tried to kill him with a fastball. In "baseball code" that is fine to do but for baseball, it is idiotic. You risk the career of one of the best players in the game because he was excited about hitting playoff HRs 2 years before? What was Strickland's suspension? 6 games. That'll teach 'em. Really, throwing a fastball at a hitter is always much worse than whatever the horrible offense the batter originally caused. Sure, you hate it if its against you, but baseball needs more passion. I want to see guys pumped not subdued celebrations in order to spare someone's feelings.

That was just bizarre by the Twins. No way is that against any code. Maybe if the Orioles were up 8-0 and bunting for hits, the Twins would have a beef. I think they're confused.

The Twins confused a shutout with a no-hitter. That's understandable as we don't see that many shutouts anymore.

Osuna has looked really good.
It's kinda weird that Loup has only pitched 1 inning in the first 5 games.
Is he going to be the 2 inning guy?

The more I learn about baseball the less I understand. Things constantly change.
Regarding attendance dropping dramatically. My immediate thought was that payroll would surely drop as well. A half hr later I thought that ticket prices would drop to encourage fans to attend.

But the opposite could easily happen. Payroll could increase and ticket prices also increase as a reflection of payroll. How this would happen is anyone's guess. Signing FAs or making big trades like the 2013 ones is one possibility.

If this was a no hitter, sure, it would have been a bit petty

If you are trying to protect a no-hitter, maybe don't shift. Any unwritten rule that allows one side to try and the other to not is lame, bullshit, machismo crap.

ticket prices also increase as a reflection of payroll

Wouldn't ticket prices be set to honour a standard supply and demand model? Sure, you could rationalize a price hike based on increased payroll, but really, you're raising prices since you believe the market will bear it (and maybe the market would bear it because you've signed a couple of expensive hot shots).

I don't like "unwritten rules" nor the Twins players criticism but Brain Dozier explanation does give some context - in the top of the 9th, the Orioles didn't hold the Twins runner on 1st & the Twins didn't steal the base because of the big lead & expected the same quid pro quo of the Orioles - I don't agree with these unwritten rules but I have a better understanding of the reasoning.

What makes it even dumber is that the Twins were UP in the game, so they were upset that the losing team was trying to score. If it was the other way around, then maybe you have an argument of running up the score, but that wasn't the case. They were also employing a shift, so apparently the unwritten rules state that it's fine for the winning team to try to keep their lead, but not for the losing team to try to cut into it.

Old school baseball unwritten rules need to go away.

so 16600 at the game last night.

I believe the lowest attendance last year was 28400. On september 11.

Miguel Gonzales is the Jays’ next victim - Chicago’s 4th Starter - an average Pitcher. He could provide a boost to some of the Jays’ struggling hitters, but that might not be enough for everyone. Eventually the Jays will start hitting better, more consistently, why not now?

There are aspects of the 'unwritten rules' that I agree with.

There is no way a player should be bunting in that situation when his team is up 7-0.

Wait... his team was DOWN 7-0?

The Twins need to shut the hell up and enjoy their win.

If you are trying to protect a no-hitter, maybe don't shift. Any unwritten rule that allows one side to try and the other to not is lame, bullshit, machismo crap.

Bunting against a shift is an entirely appropriate thing to do whether the game is tied, you are up 7 runs or you are down 7 runs.   The shift is aimed at exploiting a batter's weakness- a strong propensity to pull the ball- and if the batter can defeat that by an adaptation, more power to him.  The game needs more of that; not less. 

So, yes, "no bunting against a shift when down by 6 runs or more" is lame bullshit machismo (real men hit the ball through the shift!) crap rule.

I agree with every criticism of the Twins' nonsensical sputterings set out above, but one thing I also fail to understand is why bunting for a base hit is generally acceptable, except against the shift. The whole idea, as I understand it, is to hit the ball where they are not; if they decide to make that job easier by playing the third baseman behind second base, so be it. If you are only allowed to advance to first by making hard contact, I look forward to the Twins giving themselves up on every duck snort, Texas Leaguer, and high chopper that eludes the fielders.

"If you are trying to protect a no-hitter, maybe don't shift. Any unwritten rule that allows one side to try and the other to not is lame, bullshit, machismo crap."

This, a thousand times over. It gets even worse when troglodytes like Curt Schilling decide to enter the fray and castigate anyone that hasn't played the game at the MLB for having an opinion to the contrary. Sadly, players of his ilk do not see the irony in this attack as they defend their right to demand someone else to quit competing.

It's nice to see that most of the backlash is directed at Dozier and the Twins for being vexed at what seems like a justifiable baseball play.

Another thing that bugged me is that Sisco is a kid trying to prove he belongs in the Majors. Given the prevalence of defensive shifts, I would think showing he can effectively execute against one when his team is down is more important to him (and his Manager) than Dozier getting butthurt.

I had a look at one of Harper's homers yesterday.  He looks a little quieter in the box to my eye, and absolutely imposing.  If there was one player to pick to abolish his previous career norms in 2018, Harper would be my choice.  Obviously, that's not an out-on-a-limb choice.  He won an MVP award 3 years ago, but I think that he's going to be even better in 2018. 

Wondering if the "average" age of our team is the Mean, Median or Mode?

Such a small sample here, I would be interested to know the latter two measures and how we stack up against the 29 other teams.

When would A. Diaz or G. Ngoepe be assigned to Buffalo or New Hamsphire?

In regards to signing veteran players for the wear and tear of the regular season, Andrew Bailey the closer, shortstops JJ Hardy and Stephen Drew,,,

So do young players get more opportunities at the beginning of the season to judge their capabilities?

Jay Jaffe at FG with a breakdown of the Jays seemingly optimistic projections.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-the-jays-promising-projection/

After five games, when no one is hitting well, Diaz and Ngoepe are going nowhere especially with a 3-2 Record.

last year Aledmys' biggest issue was his drop in power for the first time (though he also was worse in patience and contact), so his early power so far is super encouraging. Fielding wise at least so far he's looked comfortable glove-wise and shown a strong arm. Haven't seen him have to show any range yet though.

BP with Vlad and Bo: https://www.pscp.tv/w/1djGXdvnDkvGZ

Are people really talking about sending players down after FIVE games?

Bo Bichette is listed as 6', 200 lbs on milb.com.  He sure looks like he weighs less than that this year. 

One thing to remember, of all the teams likely to be competing for a Postseason berth, the Jays are one, the White Sox are not.

Today's lineup is interesting:
Granderson 7, Donaldson 5, Smoak 3, Solarte 4, Grichuk 9, Morales 0, Pillar 7, Maile 2, Diaz 6.

The three Blue Jays who have hit Gonzalez are Martin, Donaldson and Travis.  It's small samples, but it is funny to give Martin and Travis a day off with both having had a day off already and another one coming on Thursday.

nice to see him avoid the urge to move Pillar up top the lineup, at least for now (knock on wood).

also nice to see Morales sinking down the lineup already. If Solarte is hitting cleanup 2 spots ahead of Morales, can we really bench Solarte and start Morales?

Today's lineup is interesting: Granderson 7, Donaldson 5, Smoak 3, Solarte 4, Grichuk 9, Morales 0, Pillar 7, Maile 2, Diaz 6.

I'll say! Two left fielders and no center fielder? That's just asking for trouble. Nobody better hit it to center field. That would surely violate some unwritten rule.

Gibby's tendency to give multiple starters a breather on the same night strikes me as one of his more exasperating habits, but it may be that my memory fixes on these occasions and he doesn't do it as often as I think.  I guess he is sticking to his guns on the Travis two game on, one game off approach that will hopefully keep him mostly in one piece for the length of the season, but if so I'd have rather he give Martin tomorrow off instead.

Yangervis, welcome to the team. We acquired you to slot you in as a backup infielder. Oh, and whenever you play, you will be our cleanup hitter. How does that sound?

Four-Seamer, I actually think gibbons is pretty good about not using those "sunday lineups". iirc Farrell was a much bigger abuser of those throwaway lineups.

I'll say! Two left fielders and no center fielder?

With Happ pitching and all those RH batters in the lineup, Pillar will probably be camped out a little bit to the left of center tonight. 

Last year, Kendrys Morales had a minor injury and missed three games in May.   The Blue Jays won all three by a combined margin of 19-9.  This year he missed 4 games in a row with Donaldson DHing; the Blue Jays went 3-1 and outscored the opponents 18-13.  I am sure that it's a fluke, but I wouldn't mind if the proposition were given a lengthier test- maybe 3 or 4 weeks just to be fair. 

So Pillar 7 1/2?

So Pillar 7 1/2

Guest manager tonight: Federico Fellini.

What's Alex Bregman's position these days- 5.78 or something?

Last May, the jays went 18-10, their only winning month - so the team went 15-10 with Morales, the team also went 15-9 without Donaldson in May.

Regarding the "Sunday lineup" issue: Gibbons gave a simultaneous rest day to Travis and Martin last Saturday, and the Jays managed to beat the Yankees anyway. So I don't think it's necessarily a big problem. The Jays have said that they could increase Travis's workload as the season goes on. I think they're just being cautious with him at the beginning of the season. As for Martin: it's clear that the catcher carries the heaviest stress of any position player, and Martin is crucial to the pitching staff, so I agree with the idea of preserving his health as much as possible. Maile seems to be hitting better this year (at least according to his spring performance and early regular-season appearances), and his defence remains excellent.

Gibbons is saying that the Jays plan to keep Martin on a schedule of resting every third game. If he keeps the schedule for the entire season, that would give him 109 games this year. It's less than his career average, but a lot more than the 91 games he played last year due to the injuries. I think I'd rather see him healthy for 109 games than unhealthy for 91 games.

Ok, but I don't understand why they both have to be held out of the same game, particularly when he intends to give them a full day off (not even making them available for pinch hitting duties). Playing with a 23 man roster every third game seems somewhat sub-optimal to me.

The line up is full of players that make a ton of outs. Other than Donaldson, I don't know that there is anyone in the line up that I would confidently bet would finish the season with an OBP above .315 (I'm sure one or two will). I was just typing that we need to pray for HRs tonight as long sequence offence will be really challenging - and Diaz delivered.

Such terrible at-bats from Morales. Consistently the worst at-bats of anyone in the lineup.

“Get him over, get him in.” It’s basically that simple. It was a disgrace to let a lead off double die on base. Grichuk “got him over” to third with less than two outs. Morales forgot how to do the rest.

But who needs Morales when the rest of the lineup is beginning to click so nicely?

nigel your call felt kinda right but I wanted to check it to make sure....

OBP last 3yrs

Donaldson .387
Granderson .342
Diaz .338
Martin .335
Morales .332
Travis .331
Smoak .330
Pearce .326
Solarte .324
Tulo .322
Pillar .306
Grichuk .298
Maile .207

Last 2yrs

Donaldson .396
Pearce .345
Smoak .340
Martin .339
Diaz .338
Granderson .329
Solarte .327
Travis .319
Morales .317
Tulo .312
Pillar .302
Grichul .287
Maile .212


Last yr

Donaldson .385
Smoak .355
Martin .343
Granderson .323
Pearce .319
Solarte .314
Morales .308
Pillar .300
Tulo .300
Travis .291
Diaz .290
Grichuk .285
Maile .176

Donaldson's arm on that play in the fifth looked to be OK.

The infield defence has been good tonight.

I should have been clearer. I was referring to the line-up tonight. I feel pretty confident that Martin and a healthy Travis would end the year with an OBP over .315. If you believe that Smoak turned a corner last year then he would be a good bet to do so as well. Otherwise, I think those numbers show that this line-up is thin on OBP. It does have some SLG though, on the upside.

Granderson's triple matches 20% of the the Jays total all last year.

fanboy ugly is starting to get excited by aledmys. if we get anything close to 2016 diaz.....

Axford is definitely the weak link in this bullpen. He's struggling to find the plate, and his stuff is hittable too. He was lucky to get out of that inning unscathed. And I don't buy the theory about "hometown jitters." He has had a few games to settle down, and he still struggles.

Why exactly did Grichuk not get an error on a line drive that hit him in the glove? That's a pretty cheap hit, slice or no slice.

My impression, Chuck, was that Grichuk hit the ground pretty hard, shoulder first, with the ball in his glove, and it wasn't too surprising that the ball might pop out. But I agree that he could have still made the out if he had caught the ball cleanly.

This team is starting to grow on me.

funny thing is our SP have been godawful so far.

Hey Teams: Don't walk Donaldson in the 8th. Your going to pay!

You are right UO. It is a laugher.

CF, Axford needs to improve...
What is the weak link in hitter? Is Diaz injured?

All 10 players have had a run and/or an RBI. Don’t see that often. And home runs have contributed only a third of the scoring. Another big. positive for this group.

The Yankees Box looks even more bizarre. Stanton struck out in all 5 at bats while Gregorius cleaned up his baserunners for him, with 8 rbi’s

Buenos Diaz! I hope he's okay. I really like his stroke.
Tagging to second was a great move. I don't remember the Jays ever doing that.

The Pale Hoses have a good team on the field, but they lack pitching.
They're really tough on lefties and the Jays just started 2 in a row.

You can't really judge pitching in April.
The bullpen has been good. One run every 3 or 4 innings is not bad.

Axford looked terrible but got the job done.
Clippard looked great but gave up a home run.

Stanton got booed on his first home game. LOL.

I would like to change the batting order to make use of hot hitting from Maile and Diaz
LF Granderson
3B Donaldson
1B Smoak
C Maille
CF Pillar
2B Solarte
SS Diaz
DH Morales
RF Grichuk

Ganderson is substituted in late inning by Pearce in defense because he was breathing hard when reaching 3b on a triple.

Ngoepe reached bases by drawing walks this match so depending on the pinch hitting situation in late innings, Ngoepe pinch hit for Granderson if no one on base and leading off an inning.

Gotta love it - 4 game winning streak after losing those first 2.  1 game out of first, 1/2 a game ahead of the Yankees.  Way too early for that, but still fun.

In all of ML Baseball only Pittsburgh has yet to lose (4-0), and San Diego has yet to win (0-4, but leading the Rockies in the 7th 5-3).  Every AL team has lost at least one and won at least one.

Scary stats to start the season....

Bad Stats...
Most K's: Chad Wallach, son of Tim, has 11 K's in 19 AB's.  he does have 2 hits thus a higher BA than Travis (8 K's in 16 AB's with 1 hit)
Most CS: Josh Bell, 0-2 in stealing bases but when you have a 438 BA you can get away with that.

Good stats...
Most RBI: 4 way tie with 9 including Smoak, Harper, Gregorius, Freeman
Avg: 6 guys have a 1000 BA but none have more than 2 AB's, 26 have a 500+ average not counting those perfect guys.
OBP: those 6 plus 1 who walked his only PA (a catcher).
Slg: 22 have 1000 or better Slg%, Gregorius has the most AB's at 18, Encarnacion also is up there over 1000 (4 hits, 3 HR).  Diaz is the top Jay at 813.
OPS: 22 over 1500, Only 25 are higher at this point than Barry Bonds single season record of 1.422 (wow, that was nutty wasn't it)

No one has reached 5 HR yet, so anyone could lead MLB with a single game effort (Delgado hit 4 in a game once for example). 

Silly stats, but fun to look at.

Starting to look like Diaz' 2016 season was no mirage. For those not familiar with him, he played only 111 games in 2016 and had 17 HR's, 65 RBI's, 71 runs scored, a .299 BA and .369 OBP, with an OPS of .879. If you prorate those numbers to a 160 game season, you're looking at 25 HR's, 100 runs scored and 95 RBI's to go along with the .299 average. Then factor in that he didn't fare well in his home park, which is not a great hitters' park. His road OPS was more than 100 points higher than at home. He has legit pop, and could be real find for the Jays. Only 27, and under team control through 2022.

Axford is really struggling. He seemed to have no control over his fastball. I'm sure they have better options.

Donaldson is starting to look like Donaldson. Didn't take the man long to get it in gear after a shortened spring.

On a White Sox note, Tim Anderson looks to me like he's going to be a star. One of those switch hitters who hits lefties better than righties. There are so many really good young shortstops in the game.

Sitting Travis and Martin at the same time is not a problem because Solarte is hitting more than Travis right now.

If Diaz needs some time off, they can start Ngoepe today supporting Sanchez and Solarte at short when Estrada is on the mound. That would give him 3 days off.

To recover from back spasms may take as much as two weeks depending on the severity of the issue. Diaz was moving much too easy for it to be that long - possibly 2-4 days could be enough.

Back-to-back LHP starting games should not happen without need. If possible, break things up as soon as possible. The idea is not to make things easier for the Opponents.

The lefties back to back is ok imo as each has a different style. Happ is primarily a fastball pitcher who throws hard while Garcia is a softer tossing lefty with good breaking stuff. I think it is an ideal complement.

That is exactly what Joe Siddel said regarding the 2 lefty SPs.

The batting approach again last night was very good- the club displayed patience and aggression at the plate.

Granderson and Solarte are really nice additions. I knew about Granderson's broad base of skills and his ready smiles, but I hadn't appreciated how smart he is.  This is the kind of veteran you want on your club.  Solarte is a fine complementary player, who as an added bonus brings a lot of energy. 

It was pretty obvious that Diaz hurt his back on the swing before he flared the ball to right for a hit.  On first base, he was tugging at his back and I was waiting for Ngoepe to go in as a pinch-runner.  Obviously it wasn't hurting too much because Diaz boldly advanced to second a medium depth fly ball to left, and made it easily.  Despite that, I wish that Gibbons had pulled him for a pinch-runner. 

I'd rather split the lefties too. But avoiding using Garcia against the yanks was probably a good call.

If the Jays carefully pick Garcia’s opponents, whenever possible, both he and the Team could be more sucessful.

"....Sitting Travis and Martin at the same time is not a problem because Solarte is hitting more than Travis right now....."

And, temporarily, Maile is hitting better than Martin too.....

"...If Diaz needs some time off, they can start Ngoepe today supporting Sanchez and Solarte at short when Estrada is on the mound...."

I suspect that's what the Jays will do. However, if Diaz is out for more than a couple of days, a strategy based on groundball/flyball pitchers would mean that Ngoepe would get the majority of starts at SS, since only Estrada is really a flyball pitcher. It might be worth experimenting with Solarte at SS for a couple of games to see how he handles the position. With Tulo out for at least 2 months, if not longer, and with Espinosa potentially exercising his opt-out clause at the end of April, the Jays need to have better plan for what to do on the days when Diaz is injured.

It’s possible, but if Jaime Garcia pitches his 2nd Start on the 8th in Texas, his 3rd Start on the 13th in Cleveland, his 4th Start on the 18th back home verses Kansas City, he will not be needed to pitch in the 4-game series in New York starting the 19th. It’s unlikely because it gives Marcus Stroman six days off between starts 2 and 3. With 2 Off-Days on the 5th and on the 12th, the Jays have the opportunity to alter the Rotation with minimum disruption.

With an Off-Day scheduled on the 5th, not being able to play today gives Diaz two days to recover. But if he’s not ready for Game 1 in Texas on Thursday, he goes on the 10-Day D.L. retroactive to today. The Jays should have plans already formulated for this very issue.

I assume that if Diaz hits the D.L. the plan will be Danny Espinosa.

If Espinosa, who do you remove from the 40-Man?

Personally, I would remove one of the bullpen 'G's: Gaviglio or Guerrieri.

The only person ON the 40-man that could reasonably play the infield is Gurriel, and I don't see any signs that he is ready.

Firstly on Espinosa: as a poster reported earlier, his recovery of injury from the ten-plus homerun 2017 regular season meant some cautions shall be taken when relying him for performance in Toronto. In spring training, Espinosa had been released by the Yankees before signed by the Jays. Both Ngoepe and Solarte can play some shortstop and as Ngoepe is stepping up his hitting performance, bringing an untold improved performance by Espinosa is a potential waste of a slot on the active roster. Letting Espinosa to perform for numerous match in Buffalo is a prudent roster management.

Secondly on hitters. So far in outfielders, Granderson could play more as corner outfielder than as a CF. The current CF is RHB Kevin Pillar. Pearce is a LF/1B type. Only Pillar performs very well at the moment and on the contrary, Grichuk does not. In comparison, Donaldson at 3B was commented as gaining better timing in his hitting (Fan590 April 3rd 2018 CWS@TOR broadcast). Even if Diaz is placed on the DL, the infield void is not as large as it seems.

In sum, if a promotion from Buffalo is decided, an LHB or SHB CF who is already on 40-men roster is a good choice. At this moment Dwight Smith is and if Pompey could play, Pompey could be a choice. If a 40-men roster spot could be vacant, L/L Ian Parmley is.

Morales slips down to 7th in today's lineup ahead of only Pillar and Ngeope. And he might not even deserve to hit ahead of Pillar.

how long do the powers that be put up with a DH that deservedly slots in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, I wonder.

Travis and Martin are back in the lineup tonight. Travis, Morales and Grichuk are the three regulars who have not yet managed to get untracked in their hitting. All three have been hitting poorly, but there might be small signs of improvement: Morales did manage a line-drive single in his last AB last night, and Grichuk is at least showing some plate discipline. (His 3 walks rank second on the team.) If those three can begin to contribute, it will become the strong balanced lineup that the Front Office was aiming to create in the off-season.

Diaz is not in the lineup, and he's being replaced by Ngoepe. But he hasn't been placed on the DL yet, so maybe he'll be back soon.

uglyone and CF,

how were you two able to see the batting lineup for tonight match now, hours before it takes place in Rogers' Centre.

The lineup is posted by Shi Davidi, Ben Nicholson-Smith and Mike Wilner on Twitter. 

I like to use:

https://rotogrinders.com/lineups/mlb?site=draftkings

You can also see the lineups at baseballpress.com

everything is on twitter first.

re Cf on tonight's lineup:
LF Granderson needs more hitting for power this season to hit cleanup and compounded with Travis' weak htting, Granderson's hitting leadoff opens the opportunity that he shall be pinch hit and substituted.
My lineup for tonight
LF Granderson
3B Donaldson
1B Smoak
CF Pillar
C Martin
RF Grichuk hitting 6th is more or less a second leadoff which fit into Cf's description of Grichuk's plate discipline.
2B Travis. Travis can take his time getting on base.
DH Morales This slot is normally for defense first catcher.
SS Ngoepe. Ngoepe draws walk last night. Let us see if he can perform more tonight.

I prefer to get the lineups from the reporters on Twitter, because it also catches me up on what Gibbons is saying before the game, what the injury situation is, etc. But I admit that is only helpful for the Jays games, not the other games in the majors.

Diaz will get the day off, but it sounds as though he is a probable for Friday.    Which is good. 

as Ngoepe is stepping up his hitting performance

Stepping up? I see a guy who is 1-for-7 with a walk and who has struck out in half his major league at-bats.

Looks like he can take a walk and has shown some isolated power in the minors, but his fundamental challenge making contact should preclude too much optimism, I would think. He's in the majors for his glove.

how long do the powers that be put up with a DH that deservedly slots in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, I wonder.

The leash certainly seems shorter, thankfully. 

Morales' situation made me think of Pujols ... the Angels are a legit wildcard contender - will they ever cut bait on Pujols?  Call it a wash with how lucky they got with Ohtani. 

Out of recent hitting from Grichuk, Travis, Morales and Ngoepe
Grichuk is second among teammates in drawing walks (Chinafan a few post ago)
Morales singled (Chinafan a few post ago)
Travis' hitting is weak (Chinafan a few post ago)
Ngoepe can take walks and show isolated power in the minors (Chuck last post) and drew walks last night's MLB match (CWS@TOR boxscore April 3rd 2018),

Out of these four hitting performances, Ngoepe is stepping up his hitting performance. However, shall recent hitting performance change the fundamental challenge? Chuck thought no (Chuck last post).

erratum... Ngoepe drew 1 walk in last night's match.

Interesting stat: tonight is the first time since April 20, 2012, that Morales has been as low as 7th in the lineup.

Which suggests that the Jays clearly recognize that there's a problem. Luckily, if he doesn't rebound soon, there are lots of options. He can get a lot less playing time. The Jays aren't dependent on his bat. They can rotate others through the DH slot. It just becomes a waste of a roster spot -- which does have a cost, but at least they don't have to play him every day.

will they ever cut bait on Pujols?

It's one thing to drop someone like Morales. But mercilessly jettisoning an inner circle Hall of Famer?

At some point, the Jays might be able to execute a reverse-Liriano trade, acquiring a low-value prospect in exchange for Morales and a couple of somewhat-better prospects (the latter included to make Morales' contract more palatable). A rebuilding team might go for it. The problem is that Morales is basically an AL-only player, which limits his market.

cf greenfrog

could Morales' contract be sold to East Asian where sluggers are valued?

Sanchez threw poorly for his ability last game, too many 1-0 and 2-0 counts. Considering he hasn’t pitched better since 2016, he was actually good enough. Too much adrenalin cost him his stamina in his first start so the actual results might not be a true measure. This Start tonight should give a clearer picture of his development.

On the pre game show on Sportsnet, Blair and Davidi reported that Lourdes Gurriel will be the 1st call up among infielders if he gets off to a good start in NH. It is expected that he will see time in TO this season. Added that Espinosa just signed to cover for month of April. Further to that, the Jays have signed utility infielder Darnell Sweeney to a minor league deal and assigned him to Buffalo.

that sounds like trade-value boosting to me. if they were that confident in gurriel as the first callup, he'd probably be in buffalo imo.

So the Jays get good ABs in the first inning, forcing Fulmer to throw 22 pitches. They don't get any runs, but at least they're forcing Fulmer to labour and to run up a high pitch count. So what does Morales do in the second inning? Swings on the first pitch. Weak contact, weak grounder to 2B and an easy out.

If you're not going to hit with power, Kendrys, at least stick to the game plan and help your teammates by seeing a few pitches.

Randal Grichuk. Wow. His approach at the plate is atrocious.

It's only the 6th inning, and Grichuk already has 6 LOB. It was ridiculous to give him the green light on a 3-0 pitch count. It was a ball, and he swung anyway, and then he struck out. I agree, his approach has been atrocious. If they had removed the green light, he would have walked and the bases would have been loaded.

Kendrys vLHP works, at least.

And finally Morales comes through. Long overdue.

It’s like, at times, the Jays forget the basics of Baseball. When they do remember, the issue is moot
.

That Grichuk at bat was embarrassing.

He seems lost at the plate. If a pitcher throws 3 straight balls to you, you want to make darn sure the next one is at least in the strike zone before you swing at it.

I have been sceptical of Smoak given his previous 3000 ABs and the last two months of last year. But every AB this year looks good even if the results aren't great.

Grichuk on the other hand looks awful. Its not just tonight. I think I've seem almost every one of his ABs this season and they have been uniformly awful.

Keith Law called Grichuk a fourth outfielder. Ultimately, that may be his role once Alford is healthy. Clearly, he’s not a good hitter (I threw a lazy Arencibia comp on him after the trade, based on his BB/K stats, which got some people on this site riled up, but in actuality Grichuk’s hitting skills may be quite comparable to JP’s).

Career

Arencibia (32): 1687pa, 78wrc+, 0.8war
Grichuk (26): 1409pa, 106wrc+, 7.2war

but true enough, they have similar K rates.

also similar K rates as Stanton.

I think we'll see Teoscar by mid-May, with Grichuk relegated to backing up Pillar in center. I don't mind giving Pillar lots of rest to preserve his good start.

benching grichuk to keep playing morales would be funny.

To be fair, it's very possible for a good hitter to look terrible for a few weeks. Remember last year's Devon Travis, with an OPS of .388 for the month of April, followed by an OPS of 1.019 for the month of May. I don't think the Jays will give up on any of these guys until mid-season at the earliest.

UO: similar K rate, similar BB rate (5% versus 6%), and Grichuk had a 94 wrc+ last year and 31 so far this year (before tonight).

Also, I wasn’t arguing that they’re the same player, just that Grichuk carries a risk of a similar offensive collapse as pitchers learn to consistently exploit his considerable weaknesses at the plate. Of course, he could turn it around and have another respectable year. We’re still in very SSS territory.

Benching Grichuk:

that means this lineup for tonight
RF Granderson
3B Donaldson
1B Smoak
LF Pearce
CF Pillar
C Martin
2B Travis
DH Morales
SS Ngoepe
... but it won't happen

If Grichuk is demoted, bring Toescar Hernandez who has played more CF than Dwight Jr. This transaction added the flexibility of resting Pillar.

There's no question the defense is better everywhere on the diamond this year. Travis isn't outstanding, but makes the plays he should.

Piling on Grichuk here, but he really has nowhere to go if he doesn't flip the switch at the ML level. He's already been banished to the minors once by the Cards to iron out his swing/approach. From what I see, he needs another overhaul.

Grichuk wrc+ (2018): 8

He has struck out in one-third of his PA.

Some more Morales late inning dinger heroics would be just delicious here.

Grichuk 11.1b%/33.3k%, .071babip, 8wrc+
Morales 7.1b%/35.7k%, .250babip, 0wrc+
Travis 4.8b%/42.9k%, .091babip, -73wrc+

Pre-collapse Arencibia wrc+ (2011): 91
Grichuk wrc+ (2017): 94

MLB:

Grichuk: 29.9k%
Teoscar: 30.9k%

AAA

Grichuk: 22.7k%
Teoscar: 20.6k%

AA

Grichuk: 17.2k%
Teoscar: 23.3k%


Teoscar is one whole year younger than grichuk.

I guess I'm a bit more confident in Teoscar's ability to stick in the majors. In his only real "chance" last September, he struck out a lot, but he showed more potential than Grichuk. He hasn't proven he can't. Grichuk has failed in a few extended chances.

in what way did Teoscar show more potential than grichuk?

First off, obviously the numbers don't lie; they are similar hitters.

I watched most games last September, he has limitations, but I don't think he lacks confidence. Hard to quantify what that means, but he appears like he could develop into a better hitter in the big leagues, given the chance that Grichuk has gotten from St. Louis. Teoscar was blocked in Houston.

My review of tonight match
Travis saw 7 balls and saw and swang at 8 strikes and hit 0 for 4. Leadoff and number 8 hitters saw the same number of pitches. If Travis is not leading off, he could hit 8th.
Donaldson 5,6; 1 for 3 and 1 walk
Smoak 6,3; 2  for 4
Granderson 4 balls 1 strikes; 2 for 2. Granderson generates two hits from 1 strikes. Given his 4 balls and as a corner OF, he is better suited as the leadoff
Pearce 0,0 1 for 2
Grichuk 8,11 0 for 4. Grichuk saw the most number of strikes and most pitches. To his credit, he showed tonight that he is at least showing some plate discipline. His 3 walks rank second on the team. (Chuck, April04, 2018@04:58pm)  but he was hitless tonight despite seeing 11 strikes. Who is our best strike hitter with reasonable plate discipline on the active roster ?
Martin 5,5 0 for 4.
Morales 4,4 1 for 4
Pillar 7,8 0 for 4.
Ngoepe 0,5  0 for 3 Ngoepe's fundamental challenge making contact should preclude too much optimism [Chuck April04, 2018@0458pm). Tonight he is hitless despite seeing 5 strikes and no balls.

For next match, consider a Pearce, Pillar, Granderson outfield.
RF Granderson
3B Donaldson
1B Smoak
LF Pearce

For defense
SS Solarte, CF Pillar, DH Morales, C Martin/Maille (depending on the SP), 2B Travis

For most of the game the Jays and their bats were asleep. In the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th the Jays went 3-up and 3-down. They were assuming success would come later.
Two runners on in the 1st, no one scores.
In the 4th, back-to-back leadoff doubles and no one scores; ground out and no one scores; second ground out scores one; then a strikeout.
In the 6th, single, double, single, one run scores, Two outs then single, scoring one and that’s where it ended.

The Season thus far has been a story of missed opportunities overshadowed by a four game winning streak. No one listens when they are winning and when they are not winning it’s usually too late. Another year of leaving Spring Training and not being ready to play the Season, which happens much too often. 199,962 people came to see the seven game home stand. 136,843 people stay home instead.

"I guess I'm a bit more confident in Teoscar's ability to stick in the majors."

You are more confident in a minor leaguer's ability to stick in the majors than someone who has actually stuck in the majors (with positive WAR!!) for 3 years? People are being ridiculous. It is incredibly early. Gary Sanchez is 1/19. Miguel Sano has struck out in 56% of his ABs. Talking about sending someone down because of 23 PAs is absurd. Anyway, this is who Grichuk is. Super streaky. He didn't have a single month between 91-113 WRC+ last year and he went from 53 WRC+ in May to 133 WRC+ in June. He will have terrible stretches but he will also have great stretches. It's a long season.

90% of baseball is half mental and Grichuk isn't in it right now.
Travis on the other hand hasn't found his timing yet.
Diaz was laughing with solarte on the bench. That's a good sign.
Morales is a very social guy who doesn't speak English.
It's great for Diaz to have him around, both being from Cuba.

Sanchez looks out of practice. It's still a promising start.
The Whities 5th starter was pretty good and as often happens when you're going for a sweep, they had saved their 2 best relievers.

Baltimore which has had had strong starts the last few years is predictably 1-5.
Tampa which has moved all their best players is also 1-5.

April  is the best time to go to Texas. Plus, they've scored 16 runs and allowed 26 in 6 games.
Without Bautista this should be a quiet weekend.

I support any change that brings up Teoscar...

...but I also think it is WAY too early to cut bait on Grichuk.

Last night's game provided a nice example of options in ace reliever usage.  The situation was the top of the eighth- the game was tied and the White Sox had Abreu, Davidson and Delmonico coming up. Sanchez had gone 6, and Oh 1 inning.  The previous night, Barnes, Axford, Clippard and Loup had each gone about an inning (Barnes had gone 2/3).  On Monday, Tepera had thrown 1 moderate inning (17 pitches) and Osuna 1 easy one (8 pitches).   Today is a day off.

Conventional reliever usage would be Tepera for the 8th and Osuna for the 9th.  Personally, I would prefer Osuna for the 8th and Tepera for the 9th.  Last night's game was one in which you want Osuna to get in the game- if he doesn't, he's had 3 days off on Friday and you may very well end up using him in a low leverage situation to give him work.  And, more importantly, I want Osuna to face Abreu and Davidson- the leverage of the situation as reflected in Tango's tables (high enough as it is at 1.9) underestimates the importance because of the quality of the hitters up in the 8th and in the 9th. 

It looks obvious that we have hot and cold hitters. That is their style. We could have all the cold hitters in the lineup in any given game. Consistently cold hitters would be Maile and Ngoepe. In a cold and hot streak ... Grichul and Morales. Ok hitters that don't fall into those categories ....Martin and Pillar.

good point Mike.

It looks obvious that we have hot and cold hitters. That is their style.

It's likely just as much the vagaries of the random chance evident in small samples as it is anyone's personal style. Flip a coin 20 times and you might get 14 heads. Doesn't mean the coin is hot or cold.

Travis seems to be a slow starter. I tried checking month but month though and it's totally inconsistent. But 2/3 march April have been bad.

"....Flip a coin 20 times and you might get 14 heads. Doesn't mean the coin is hot or cold....."

That's very true. But when the coins are named Morales and Grichuk and they just look so terrible when flailing and missing, or making weak contact, it is very tempting to suggest that it's not just random luck. It's so hard to doubt the evidence of our eyes, especially when Morales looked bad so often last year too. However, we need to give them a big enough sample before reaching any conclusions.

I console myself by remembering Justin Smoak's terrible-looking strikeouts during his first season with the Jays. We were losing patience with him, too, and we were wrong.

come on guys, this ain't our first rodeo. we're not even 10gms into the season. sample sizes are beyond meaningless at this point.

Here are all the (qualified) guys off to worse starts than Grichuk.

C.Davis: -54wrc+
K.Kiermaier: -47
JP.Crawford: -46
J.Iglesias: -42
R.Chirinos: -39
E.Longoria: -35
B.Zimmer: -34
A.McCutcheon: -33
L.Forsythe: -26
G.Sanchez: -19
A.Gordon: -14
B.Hamilton: -14
C.Dickerson: -7
R.Odor: -1
C.Wallach: 1
M.Margot: 2
A.Alther: 2
J.Ramirez: 4
W.Ramos: 7
E.Rosario: 7
L.Morrison: 10
W.Contreras: 10
R.Grichuk: 11
J.Baez: 12
T.Story: 13
C.Seager: 16
M.Mahtook: 17
M.Taylor: 20
J.Mercer: 20
S.Piscotty: 21

and with worse K%:

I.Happ 55.6%
C.Wallach 52.4
B.Zimmer: 52.4
M.Sano: 52.2
G.Stanton: 44.4
B.Buxton: 42.1
K.Kiermaier: 41.7
C.Gomez: 40.0
R.Chirinos: 39.1
J.Winker 38.5
M.Ozuna 38.5
B.Hamilton 38.5
A.Altherr 38.1
A.Rosario 37.5
M.Semien 36.4
W.Contreras 35.4
E.Escobar 35.3
C.Owings 35.0
M.Taylor 35.0
J.Villar 34.8
J.Gallo 34.5
M.Gonzalez 34.5
T.Anderson 33.3
A.Pollock 33.3
W.Castill 33.3
K.Calhoun 33.3
R.Grichuk 33.3
T.Story 32.0
J.D.Martinez 31.8
E.Longoria 31.6

However, we need to give them a big enough sample before reaching any conclusions

Morales has had 1241 PAs from 2016-18 and hit .255/.316/.455.  He has precisely 0 fWAR for that period.  He turns 35 in June.  1241 PAs is a large enough sample for me in the context, and the way he looks just ices the deal. 

"Morales has had 1241 PAs from 2016-18 and hit .255/.316/.455. He has precisely 0 fWAR for that period."

And during that same period, it's 906pa vRHP, with a cool 83wrc+

Grichuk looked pretty bad yesterday.

However, over his career he hits a HR every 20 at bats.

So give the guy 600 at bats and he'll probably give you around 30 hrs.

If he can somehow hit .250 his end of season OPS should look fine.

Grichuk has been about a ~100 wRC+ player over the past two seasons. If you combine that with good defense in RF and good base running, then he's a solid MLB player. Is there more in his bat? Possibly. The power is real. Once that starts turning up in his 2018 performance then we will start to see the upside, but 1) he has always been streaky, and 2) his K%/BB% are just as worrisome as his power is intriguing. You have to take the good with the bad, and right now we are seeing the bad. He's still young and athletic with good power. I think he will be OK.

Morales is a different story. He is 35, slow, has no defensive value, and his one positive quality (exit velocity/bat speed) typically diminishes with age. I think we are likely seeing the beginning of the end with him rather than a small sample of bad swings/performance, and it started last season. At this point it is a question of how long the FO will stick with him.

At least last season when Jose and Morales played so much you could have said there were no other alternatives. This season, there are two bench players better than Morales (Pearce and Solarte), and also a player in the minors who is likely already better (Hernandez). At some point, you have to look at a completely untradeable $23M as being sunk cost and move on, especially if it's hurting the team.

I'm not defending Morales. I've been highly critical of him throughout this thread. But there's still something a little inconsistent in arguing that we should ignore the poor starts by Travis and Grichuk while also suggesting that Morales might be dumped on the basis of an even smaller sample.

The Jays didn't dump Morales in the off-season. They're not going to do it now. We have to live with him as an expensive platoon player and pinch-hitter, for at least another couple months.

Or to put it another way: the Front Office has repeatedly stated in the off-season that they expect Morales to be a lot better this season. They're been predicting a bounce-back season, despite our skepticism. They're not going to abandon that belief on the basis of 14 ABs. If they're going to abandon the idea, it will take 100 or 200 ABs.

"We have to live with him as an expensive platoon player and pinch-hitter, for at least another couple months."

what does this mean?

Morales doesn't deserve to be on the roster. we all know it. they know it. if they choose to sabotage the team for some reason we should criticize it.

it is very tempting to suggest that it's not just random luck.

I wouldn't attribute the entirety of anyone's performance to random luck. I'm just arguing that a heaping helping of luck is in the mix when sample sizes are so small.

And that does not mean we should entirely abandon the eye test. It just means that we should temper our concerns about someone who is 2-for-23 (while admittedly looking terrible being 2-for-23). Grichuk is 1 for 13 in BABIP situations. Give him 3 more singles and he's suddenly 5-for-23 and maybe people aren't of a mind to send him to Buffalo in early April.

That said, I am less bullish than most with regards to Grichuk. That K/BB rate just spells trouble.

I'll also add that given that any playoff chances the jays have this year teeter on a razor's edge, where 1 or 2 wins may mean everything, the Jays really cannot afford to give extra rope to anyone based on factors like contracts.

Right now, imo, we aren't fielding our best roster. That includes using Morales as the DH when he's objectively not the best option there, and having Biagini in buffalo when imo he's objectively an upgrade to the bullpen.

Game 2 vs the CWS we got a lot of hits (doubles) with RISP. Last night lots of opportunities with RISP and no hits. SSS but this could be a trend.

The RISP outs hurt the most.

Gm #1, 1-6 loss against NYY Severino and the NYY pen were too good for our offense, also 3bb and 12k. Gm #2 2-4 loss to NYY we had 1bb and 12 K. Last night 1bb and 10k.

That is our 3 losses. bb and k look terrible. But we are on pace to win 92 games. All SSS. Understanding these stats is almost impossible for me. By the end of April we will have played 30 games. All I can forecast and I don't have confidence in my forecasts is a 17W-13L record. I believe the most in that number so +/- 1 should work.

We might not be fielding our best roster ... perhaps we even most likely aren't ... but the facts that Morales isn't playing everyday, is down in the batting order, are positive.  Perhaps it's even a good thing that our playoff chances are slim in terms of who should DH.  Could this embolden a conservative FO?  They want the best results they can get with moderate resources, so they are balancing the financial investment with that razor thin chance at the playoffs.

I hated the Morales move when it was just 85bluejay lobbying for the deal (and 85, I've lobbied for plenty of bad deals, not picking on you), and I continue to hate it.  But who cuts bait on a FA this fast?  Morales might be shown the door by midseason, and to me, this is the best possible outcome, barring a miraculous recovery by Morales. 

Does anyone write a post and think that Dewey is sitting over their shoulder?  I now think about my grammar on the internet Dewey - props to you. 

Right now the Jays have played seven home games with poor fan support. They split the series with New York. Should they have won more, especially this year? Maybe, maybe not. They won the series with Chicago. Should they have won more? Maybe, maybe not. Right now Fans should call it a successful start to the Season.

The Jays are now off on a nine game road trip, with an off-day after game six. Texas is going nowhere this year and shouldn’t be a problem for the Jays, even these Jays. Baltimore’s not going anywhere either even if they don’t know it yet. They shouldn’t be a problem for the Jays if they don’t let them be a problem. Cleveland could easily win 60 of the 78 available games in their Division so how the Jays will do is unknown. I will be happy if the Jays win 5 of the next 9 games, anything more will be a bonus.

"But who cuts bait on a FA this fast?"

Gord Ash, with Randy Myers...

We cut bait on Alex Rios even before his brand new extension kicked in after half a season of mediocrity. We cut bait on Frank Thomas after 2 months of struggles after he was our 2nd best hitter the year before. we waived EE after 500pa of better production than Morales has given us.

and I'm still annoyed at all the FA vet relievers we DIDN'T cut bait on quick enough when they stunk to high heaven.

We cut bait on Alex Rios... we waived EE after 500pa

But no money was eaten in either case. I know it shouldn't matter, but when there is money to eat, the cutting of bait gets less aggressive. Don't know if it's the sunk cost fallacy at play or the optics of owning up to a mistake.

eh, we don't even have to cut bait on him yet. Just don't keep using him as an automatic starter.

Gord Ash, with Randy Myers...

Good call mathesond.  I used to live on Bathurst street and Myers would drive his hummer past my house on the way to the Dome.  dumping his contract was Ash's best move, other than signing Clemens, in my books, and obviously not just because he was a reactionary #%%.  my least favourite Jay ever, although Hillendbrand gave him a run for his money. 

Morales on his at bats with strikeouts and swing and misses looks as bad as I remember any major leaguer looking. Timing of, swing no where near the ball, horrible. However, on his hits he looks very good with such solid contact.

I wonder if that is just a swing too hard approach that means the "eye test" might be not as accurate on him. Or if that could be the management thinking.

Sometimes a good part of hitting is guessing correctly what's coming.
I didn't expect Morales to start quickly. He's not there for his defense, but he's partially there for his attitude.

Best Jays in last game: Smoak (.150 WPA), and Oh (.091)
underperformers: Grichuk (-.249), Tepera (-.183), Martin (-.249) and Pillar (-.182).

Charlie Blackmon, who was a 6 WAR player last year and is one year younger than Donaldson signed a 6/106M extension. What's the over/under for Donaldson in free agency? 120M? 150? Who has 200?

Just throw out two trade ideas. No idea about their implementation:
1) Morales to the Rays for a low-value prospect in exchange for Morales and a couple of somewhat-better prospects (the latter included to make Morales' contract more palatable). (greenfrog April 04 2018@06:20 PM EDT)
2) When the Jays are close to not going to postseason, Donaldson to the Astros for Evan Gattis and Marwin Gonzalez. Gattis' 6.7M contract and Gonzalez' 5.125M end this season. Depending on how well Solarte and A. Diaz would be playing, Gonzalez could play SS primarily and some 2B. Tulo is to be play primarily 3B in place of Donaldson. Both Gattis and Luke Maille would be take some workload of catching from Martin. Martin's contract ends next season so Gattis could at least hold the position for prospect and Maille developments.

I think Tulo is pretty adamant that he is staying at shortstop. I don't know how that is going to play out over the remaining years of his contract if he is able to come back. There is a rumour that there is somebody in the minors who could eventually play third in the future.

"....We cut bait on Frank Thomas after 2 months of struggles after he was our 2nd best hitter the year before...."

Interesting analogy. It might indeed be a precedent, especially since Thomas was similar to Morales in being a pure offence-only slugger. However, unlike Morales, he didn't have a 3rd year on his contract, so it might have been a little easier for the Jays to give up on him. It cost the Jays about $8-million. Thomas was also much older than Morales: he was nearly 40 when he was released.

The Jays released Thomas after 72 plate appearances in which his OPS was .639. That was 114 points below the OPS that Morales posted last year. Let's see where Morales stands after 72 plate appearances this year.

wasn't there a vesting option on Thomas that necessitated a quicker release?

If Price is back, UO (who wanted Price and EE back in the fold) is going to have a good case against his perennial critics. If Rogers was willing to spend at a level commensurate with its financial clout, the Jays could have a really good present *and* future team.

"If Price is back, UO (who wanted Price and EE back in the fold) is going to have a good case against his perennial critics."

No he wouldn't. Price's contract is going to be horrible. We are 3 years in and it already looks very bad. Even if he has a great year, I wouldn't take another 4/$125M or whatever he costs. It also ignores the first 2 years of his deal where he went 23-12 with a 3.70 ERA which are not close to elite numbers the Red Sox paid for. Anyway, signing Price would have meant no Estrada and Happ which makes the Jays worse. Anyway, this is the same pattern over and over again with these kinds of posters:
1) Push the Jays to sign every big player or re-sign no matter cost
2) Complain when they don't
3) Pretend that whatever cost the player signed for, the Jays could have got the player for the same. (Like Cozart who almost certainly would not have been interested in coming to Toronto with no starting spot.)
4) Cherry pick the players that performed in the past and theoretically add them to the team and show how with them they'd win. (Otherwise known as "if management were perfect, we could have won" complaint but phrased in a way that makes management look stupid for not doing it.)
5) Plan not be around/mention the long-term contracts when they don't work out in the end years. (It's easy to say "The Jays should have signed Fowler" in year 1 when he's good, but in year 4 and 5 when he's getting $30M and is a replacement level player, you're complaining about something else.)
6) At the same time harp on the mistakes management makes endlessly.

Ugly also pushed the Jays to sign long-term massive contracts for Bautista and Encarnacion which would have crippled the team. You can't advocate for a bunch of horrible contracts and then say "well, if this one turns out not horribly, then he was right". What the Jays management has actually done has been infinitely better medium and long-term than what people on here suggested.

Don't forget Nate Pearson who we drafted with EE's pick or Bo Bichete who we wouldn't be able to draft if Fowler signed.

The Smoak contract has a chance to turn into a brilliant move.

People are weary about pitching after this year but Happ should be eligible tor a QO and Estrada seems to prefer pitching here than anywhere else.

I haven't seen anybody predict that 1B/DH types would become dirt cheap after the 2016 campaign.

Toronto is 4-3 and we're pretty happy about it.
NYY are 4-3 and they are not happy about it at all.
They seem to really think they should win 120 games over there.

I haven't liked the balls and strikes calls so far. Every game we seen to get screwed on one or 2 important calls on both sides of the plate.

Judge is really tall and the umps don' t apply the strike zone to him properly. It's really hard to get a strike at the top of the zone on him but right below the knees is called  routinely.

I hate Wellington Castle. And I hate mixtures of English and Spanish names

What do you think of McGregory Contreras?

I too, have mixed first and last names.

Interesting analogy. It might indeed be a precedent, especially since Thomas was similar to Morales in being a pure offence-only slugger. However, unlike Morales, he didn't have a 3rd year on his contract, so it might have been a little easier for the Jays to give up on him. It cost the Jays about $8-million. Thomas was also much older than Morales: he was nearly 40 when he was released.

The Jays released Thomas after 72 plate appearances in which his OPS was .639. That was 114 points below the OPS that Morales posted last year. Let's see where Morales stands after 72 plate appearances this year.

There are some other differences between Thomas and Morales:

• Thomas is a Hall of Famer, and was better by an order of magnitude or two than Morales over his career

• in the year prior to his release, he had posted a .277/.377/.480 line in 624 PAs and the year before that it was .270/.381/.545 in 559 PAs .

There was every reason to believe from the larger sample that Thomas would contribute something significant over the year (despite his age).  Not so for Morales. 

Looking back the current management team has made some pretty good calls.

Happ & Estrada plus cash savings vs Price

• Happ - 31-16 3.39 ERA/130 ERA+/3.90 FIP  350 1/3 IP
  
• Estrada - 19-18 4.24 ERA/104 ERA+/4.44 FIP 369 IP
  
• Price - 24-12 3.67 ERA/122 ERA+/3.55 FIP 318 2/3 IP
  

So Price has the best FIP, but Happ has a better ERA.  Estrada has been solid but not 'wow'.  However, in any comparison you lose 400+ innings over those 3 years and we all know the 'quality' of the Jays #6 and beyond starters has been nightmarish.  If the Jays did what AA and many fans (myself included) wanted, resigned Price instead of Happ & Estrada woudl the Jays have won the wild card in 2016?  I doubt it.  On the good side, the Jays probably woudln't have resigned Bautista last year either or made a serious offer on EE.  Given his fetish for draft picks I suspect AA would've still offered QO's to both.  Wonder if Bautista would've even played at all last season then.

This winter I expect Happ to be offered a QO and the Jays to cross their fingers that someone signs him.  Estrada comes back at a lower pay. 

IMO the parts are all there if you look hard for them.

Part 1) This is the Bluejays. They have a history.
2) The team has been contending since 2015. The team was old then. Some older players are no longer here. Buehrle, Bautista, Grilli and Dickey. We are still built to contend.
3) The budget has a ceiling. It is set and made public, sort of. Ownership has a say on the budget. Revenue is a factor, but unknown. Winning and losing should play a part in revenue.
4) Injuries and luck play a part in winning and losing.
5) The FO expects player movement due to contracts expiring, trades etc. The expiring contracts are known.
6) The FO has stated that this team is built on pitching at the moment. Even stating that this is the team's strength.
7) Unknowns happen. The severity of injuries and performance. Depth seems to be the approach to this issue. Also some kind of multi position players.
8) A large inventory of prospects is this FO's current preference. Very few prospects have been traded so far.

A week into the season, the effects of the cold weather are evident. The AL batting line is 235/308/395. Toronto is at 237/308/452, of course not yet affected by the weather.

"Price's contract is going to be horrible. We are 3 years in and it already looks very bad. Even if he has a great year, I wouldn't take another 4/$125M or whatever he costs. It also ignores the first 2 years of his deal where he went 23-12 with a 3.70 ERA which are not close to elite numbers the Red Sox paid for."

eh. Here at the very start of his 3rd year, despite missing most of last year to injury, he's still sitting on about 7war as a Red Sock already. Given his health history, this injury will likely be looked back at as an anomaly, much as his bad/unlucky first month as a Sock was. Price is aweseome, and will be for years, and a likely hall of famer in the end.



"Anyway, signing Price would have meant no Estrada and Happ which makes the Jays worse. Anyway, this is the same pattern over and over again with these kinds of posters:
1) Push the Jays to sign every big player or re-sign no matter cost
2) Complain when they don't
3) Pretend that whatever cost the player signed for, the Jays could have got the player for the same. (Like Cozart who almost certainly would not have been interested in coming to Toronto with no starting spot.)
4) Cherry pick the players that performed in the past and theoretically add them to the team and show how with them they'd win. (Otherwise known as "if management were perfect, we could have won" complaint but phrased in a way that makes management look stupid for not doing it.)
5) Plan not be around/mention the long-term contracts when they don't work out in the end years. (It's easy to say "The Jays should have signed Fowler" in year 1 when he's good, but in year 4 and 5 when he's getting $30M and is a replacement level player, you're complaining about something else.)
6) At the same time harp on the mistakes management makes endlessly.

Ugly also pushed the Jays to sign long-term massive contracts for Bautista and Encarnacion which would have crippled the team. You can't advocate for a bunch of horrible contracts and then say "well, if this one turns out not horribly, then he was right". What the Jays management has actually done has been infinitely better medium and long-term than what people on here suggested."



Correct. These types of posters do believe that the Jays should always be players at the top of the free agent market. Especially when they are already a back to back ALCS calibre team for whom a significant add makes championships a reality.

Meanwhile, there are other types of posters who have let Rogers convince them over decades of abuse that the Jays are a small market team that should never be paying free agent prices for anyone, even when they are contenders. These posters hilariously crave constant rebuilding - and selling off all our good young players before they cost free agent dollars.

These posters will harp on and on about VALUE without ever even noticing that the team will throw away equivalent money each season on bottom of the roster filler.

These posters will happily put up with non-contending rosters for years on end, but are aghast at a team paying for impact players when they are contending because they might cost too much later on when the team is back to non contending.

These posters will stubbornly refuse to admit that free agents like Encarnacion and Fowler and Cain are very, very good and just hope/pretend that they will fail somewhere down the line - and will actually try to mock anyone who acknowledges that they are very good players to make themselves feel better. They will do their utmost to deny that the vast majority of the suggested free agent signings would have been a clear help to this team - and that the team chose to waste a whole bunch of money on useless players anyways.

These posters will pretend that because a fan without multi-million dollar scouting, analytics, and health departments may have pushed for signing one player like Bautista that implodes, that that somehow justifies the team, with all their resources and expertise, never signing top free agents ever.

"Happ & Estrada plus cash savings vs Price"

This is a false choice though.

1) because the team can afford a higher payroll.
2) becasue we could just as easily say "Price vs. Estrada/Morales/Pearce".

Price has made two starts so far this year and hasn't given up a run, but the underlying information suggests that he hasn't really been overpowering.  It's mostly been balls in play (a high proportion of which have been hit hard) turning into outs.  If he keeps pitching as he has, he's going to give up over 35 homers this year. 

Conditions in Red Sox games (so far) have been extremely favourable to pitchers.  The Red Sox and their opponents have each hit 4 homers in 280 PAs. 

UO,

Price hasn't been worth his contract so far.

Price also hasn't been able to get the job done in the playoffs. Do you really want to spend $30 million a season on a player who will hurt you in the playoffs.

When the Jays made their playoff run with Price, they probably wouldve been better off if they left him off the playoff roster.

uglyone - sorry, no matter how much we all figure the Jays can afford a NYY payroll ($200+ million) the Jays do not act like it, nor have they shown any inclination of being a top 3 payroll.  Instead ever since the 1993 WS the Jays have pretty much talked about being a top 10 payroll as their goal.   To assume that magically the Jays would start spending more is silly.  Also Price vs Estrada/Morales/Pearce is a completely false narative as Price was a free agent after 2015 so only signings that winter should be factored in and the Jays went out and signed Happ & kept Estrada that winter - clear replacements for Price as they play the same position (starting pitcher) and were signed/resigned right after the decision not to sign Price was made.  Morales and Pearce are DH's who were signed the following year thus do not belong in the conversation outside of how the Jays spent the extra cash left over from not signing Price.  I felt at the time that resigning Price would've been the better move and it still might work out that way in the end but in 2016 Happ/Estrada was far more valuable than Price/floatasm would've been.  Or if you prefer Happ vs Price one-on-one Happ was more valuable that year and with a flip of pitchers the Jays might not have made the playoffs in 2016.

Sorry, John, but there's no reason for fans to just accept ownership's decisions as immutable laws.

Especially since in this case it's not even hard to make an argument that their decision to spend less actually costs them more money in the end.

Sorry, John, but there's no reason for fans to just accept ownership's decisions as immutable laws.

Well no, there isn't. Fans are obviously free to spend their money to support a different team, and complain about that team.

Or not spend any money, and not complain at all.

If you'd already bought your season tickets for this year and the team suddenly cut payroll down to Floria Marlins levels immediately afterwards, you'd obviously have a leg to stand on with your argument, but the Blue Jays have had a pretty consistent payroll commitment over the last decade or so.

Especially since in this case it's not even hard to make an argument that their decision to spend less actually costs them more money in the end.

If it's not that hard, then make that argument, and support it with facts. Provide an example of another organization with a similar payroll to the Blue Jays that lost money by choosing not to commit to huge free agent contracts.

No, there is no requirement, or even need, to stop being a fan of a team because you disagree with ownership's decisions.

The best part of the attacks on me is that they come from the same posters who have never had any problem criticizing management and ownership they didn't like.

Great points Parker. Agree with your post pretty much 100%

UO I don't interpret that post as an attack on you.

Just a different perspective.

Baseball is a business.

I have to say that Ugly is at the very least defending his position well.

My position:

I am prepared to sign players to absolute max deals. I, like ugly, don't accept that ownership should have an absolute policy against those contracts and my dollars as a fan will reflect that if I ever see an obvious opportunity missed.

What I am against though is paying someone an absolute max deal before you have to. Vernon Wells is the obvious example here, if the Jays waited a year they could have cut that contract in half (or, you know, passed on signing him). Bautista (a couple of years ago) or Donaldson (now) are the other examples. There was a time that I would have paid Bautista 30 million per year. But by the time that he was a FA that ship had sailed. Donaldson- I want to see what he does this year before I decide what to do.


With Price, who we did have to pay a max deal to, I was on the fence. He has sucked in the playoffs, but that was the only red flag and you have to get to the playoffs first. I'm also not sure that past playoff performance is predictive of future performance. Barry Bonds was absolutely awful in the playoffs before 2002. Jack Morris was a playoff stud until we paid him to do that in Toronto.

In the end, I think either decision was defensible and as such I've never attacked the Jays for failing to sign Price. I don't think that he would have moved the needle the past two years, but that's due to other factors- not his performance.

I am ok with fans complaining about payroll, trades, managerial decisions and draft picks and Int'l signings. It is their right. The owners and FO make those decisions.

One complaint I do have is ownership insisting on the FO sign a popular player against the judgement of the FO.

Regarding payroll, I don't mind payroll decreasing if the team is built that way. Donaldson may be replaced by Solarte or Vlad one day. How/if that happens we will find out in time.
The 2016 rotation was Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, Estrada and Hutch. Buehrle and Price departed.

Payroll did not decrease because Donaldson, Martin and Tulo got paid more. The team did not get better. EE's money was taken by Morales, $2mil more and Bautista also got $2mil more.

I really expected the 2018 payroll to go down. I expected Donaldson to be traded. I am happy that he was not traded.

I happen to agree with ugly on this.

Over the last two years, the Jays ownership really dropped the ball.

I think that management has done okay this year, under the guidelines they have been given. It is the guidelines that should be complained about.

The idea that the Jays were right to not make a serious effort to sign Price is kind of ludicrous. Has he underperformed? Sure... due to injury. Is he as good or better than every starter in Toronto's rotation? Yes. (I have high hopes for Stroman and Sanchez, but they haven't proved it yet.)

Also, the idea that the Jays shouldn't have signed Encarnacion to a contract extension is also clearly wrong. If they had signed him, he would be on the team instead of Morales - a clear upgrade. You say that would have hurt their budget room... but it is the budget that is arbitrarily low for a big market team.

Instead they nickel and dimed and hoped to catch lightning in a bottle. Maybe, in some cases, they will. (I like what they did to upgrade in the infield. The outfield, on the other hand...)

We got very lucky with Smoak. That is the type of deal we do. EE's old deal $9mil/yr. He was offered $20milx4. I expected Boston to sign him for $25mil/yr according to something that I read. Morale's $11mil/yr is not as high as $20-25mil/yr. But Morales is not as good as EE.

If fans do stay away, then ownership may increase to maybe 5th highest payroll.

At the moment I am very sure that we are a build to a window, max the use of the window and rebuild to the next window.

bpoz, the Jays offered EE more money than any other team. He turned it down and eventually signed for less money.

The Jays also offered Jose Bautista more money than any other team.

He turned it down and ....

Not a fan of comments like 'these posters'.  If you want to disagree with someone, call them out by name or don't make sweeping generalizations.  It's a bit of a straw man in my book. 

Price has been worth $51.7 million dollars to the Sox thus far per Fangraphs Value stats, so just over $9 million less than he's been paid, and with the injury.   I've argued since he signed that contract that he was likely to opt out after 2018, and I still think that's possible, although this strange offseason has made me less certain.  It's still far to early to judge that deal though.  Verlander was an albatross just a couple of years ago, as an example. 

That said, I think the FO did very well going with Happ and Estrada instead, if it is fair to view the deals that simply.  Ultimately,  I don't think you can really judge a FO on a move-by-move basis - it's too much of a SSS.  We should evaluate Shapiro and co based on the overall results of their value strategy - Happ, Estrada, Smoak, etc. - but also Morales and Pearce.   Likewise, AA should be judged for his body of work - the Bautista trade and contract, but also the Dickey trade, and so on. 

I think I was the loudest proponent of signing Cozart.  Tons of us on the box were worried that Tulo and Travis would miss significant time - Cozart may have preferred a 3B gig with the Angels, or he may have preferred a super-utility Ben Zobrist type role, likely including a bunch of time at SS.  He might prefer LA, or the chance to play with Ohtani.  He might love Toronto, but we were never linked to him.   Who knows?    I don't agree with any of these hard and fast 'rules' of FA - the player will always take the starting role, Toronto is always at a disadvantage, etc.  I'd certainly rather have Cozart (who did not get a QO) than Solarte and Ngoepe right now - and I already love watching Solarte. 

I don't think anyone is pretending Toronto should be a top 3 payroll, but 'top ten - top five at times' makes sense to me - Shapiro promised more spending if the fan support continued.  It did, and I don't see the spending increase.  Where do we end up in payroll if the team struggles and doesn't draw? 

I sure dislike the idea that spending on the team gives you more of a 'right' to opine about them than those who chose to spend less, or who don't have the means, and I hope it doesn't creep back into these discussions. 

I love though, just how civil this debate is. 

As for EE, I'd way rather have him than Morales right now, and I think we can all mostly agree on that.  Especially after this:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-necessary-conditions-for-edwin-encarnacions-inside-the-parker/

If it's not that hard, then make that argument, and support it with facts. Provide an example of another organization with a similar payroll to the Blue Jays that lost money by choosing not to commit to huge free agent contracts.

There's no need to look at any other organizations, this one is proving it now. They half-assed the 2016-17 off-season, playoffs were missed last year, and now the season-ticket base is way down. Decision to spend less will cost them in the end. (There are obvious caveats that spending does not guarantee success, but it's not unfair to say that going cheap hurt them last year.)

So it seems like Sanchez has added something new this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-sanchez-figured-something-out/

Week 1 AL ranks

TOR HT: 112wrc+ (#7), 36runs (#4), 1.0war (#8)
TOR SP: 5.7ip/gs (#4), 119era- (#11), 126fip- (#12)

TOR RP: 23.1ip (#8), 58era- (#3), 116fip- (#13)

Recommended Friday listen: this interview with Carol Kaye. 

Lessons above the Jays are simple, so everyone ignores them or forgets them because it does not serve their purpose - to bitch and complain.
Rule #1: The Jays are owned by a Corporation with Shareholders.
Rule #2: Corporations are all about more and more profit, there’s never enough.
Rule #3: Nothing else matters.

As we predicted, Solarte is starting at SS tonight with Estrada on the mound.

And in perhaps a bigger surprise, the slow-starting Grichuk and Travis are already being shifted down to the 8th and 9th positions in the lineup.

I love it. With all our interchangeable bats, gibbons should be mixing and matching like crazy.

The idea that the Jays were right to not make a serious effort to sign Price is kind of ludicrous. Has he underperformed? Sure... due to injury. Is he as good or better than every starter in Toronto's rotation? Yes. (I have high hopes for Stroman and Sanchez, but they haven't proved it yet.)

Is he $20M a year better than the Blue Jays' choices?

No. Right no, no. Because of injury? Right, because no pitchers in their mid-30's get injured. Five years from now, are you even kidding me?

Also, the idea that the Jays shouldn't have signed Encarnacion to a contract extension is also clearly wrong. If they had signed him, he would be on the team instead of Morales - a clear upgrade. You say that would have hurt their budget room... but it is the budget that is arbitrarily low for a big market team.

This is confusing to me.

While I don't agree that the Jays should've spent $80M on Encarnacion, I'd like to again reiterate that he signed for less money somewhere else. I'd rather wait until 2020 to debate the merits of the contract the Jays offered to Encarnacion before he signed for less money somewhere else.

here's no need to look at any other organizations, this one is proving it now. They half-assed the 2016-17 off-season, playoffs were missed last year, and now the season-ticket base is way down. Decision to spend less will cost them in the end. (There are obvious caveats that spending does not guarantee success, but it's not unfair to say that going cheap hurt them last year.)

Then stop buying tickets. It's really that simple. Again, the "decision to spend less will cost them in the end" is random hyperbole unsupported by any factual analysis. As usual.

I'm a at loss here, because it frightens me how people base their analysis on this year, or last year. It's almost as if these people think that signing a mortgage for a house only counts towards this year's finances, and I find that mind-boggling and very scary.

Renters. The average car loan in this country is now 7 years.

Signing Price after 2015 would have been an horrible move.
Maybe even trading for Price wasn't such a good move. Maybe what they really needed was a stud to put in left field and a utility player who could hit, or a real setup guy. Buerhle could have pitched to an ERA over 7 easily.

But then again, "it's not my money" so I'm going to hate on the team that doesn't spend enough of not my money last year or this year.

The arguments in favor of the existing dead-money sunk costs wouldn't show up here until the basement-dwellers have long forgotten about the players the Jays didn't extend and have happily moved on to the "letting Donaldson's gigantic new contract that is about to cripple another organization" non-argument.

It’s easy to start evaluating the Price deal three years in, but the real question is did the deal make sense with the data the Jays had at the time. I think it was a good market price for a pitcher with a good injury record at the time, consistent top level results, and a good team presence. The playoff record is overplayed given the small number of games he has actually pitched in. He has a very good record in other high profile games including a number with the Jays down the stretch.

Lost in all this discussion is the uncomfortable reality that the Jays have not signed any big name players since Clemens, with the arguable exceptions of players with prior Jays experience or in one case, were Canadian born. Like it or not, Toronto has not been a draw and there are a number of cases where players took similar offers to play for other teams rather than coming here.

In Price, you had a big name FA who clearly wanted to stay. Signing Price would have sent a huge message - notonly to Jays fans, but other free agents- that Toronto wanted to play in the big leagues and was willing to pay for big league talent. It was an opportunity lost.

well said, grjas, well said.

Lost in all this discussion is the uncomfortable reality that the Jays have not signed any big name players since Clemens, with the arguable exceptions of players with prior Jays experience or in one case, were Canadian born.

Off the top of my head…how about AJ Burnett, BJ Ryan, Frank Thomas.

...players with prior Jays experience

This conveniently excludes, for example, one Jose Bautista and one Vladimir Guerrero, jr. It also excludes one David Price.

Burnett and a Thomas were not top FAs at the time and Bautista and price came in on trades. Quote at the time- “The Blue Jays took a chance by signing Burnett due to his being prone to injuries“ As well his ERA+ was averaging just over 100 when they picked him up. Thomas was just shy of 40 and wasn’t in high demand.

Ryan comment is valid, so fine, 1 name brand FA in 20 years who hadn’t previously played with them or came from here.

I was pretty excited about Burnett at the time. Plus we have traded for a number of big names over the years. I do buy into AA's argument that it's easier to trade.

It took us 20 years to get back into the post season. That is the only reason I believe that R Halladay left.

We all know the reason why it took so long. The GMs were not as good as Gillick, the budget was much lower than NYY and Boston, the unbalanced schedule forced us to play NYY and Boston a lot, as well as TB who had our number.

TB never signed expensive FAs, but Baltimore did. Baltimore got in the odd time when Boston or NYY had a bad year.

FAs will sign if it is the best financial deal. P Angelos paid that. Our owners "choose" to not pay those high prices Some believe that it is their right and others believe it is not their right.
It seems clear that many of the knowledgeable fans know this and the many don't. Therefore it is clear cut that some never expect big signings and others hope for the big signings and then are disappointed when it does not happen.

Big money went to V Wells and AA traded for big money with the Marlins. I am not sure if the budget went up for the Well's deal. It certainly did go up for the Miami deal.