The minor league season is just over two weeks away. On April 4th and 5th the rosters for the minor league teams will become available. Today I wanted to review some of the areas with uncertainty, where the Jays may have too many players for the positions available.
But first I wanted to discuss Vlad Jr and Bo Bichette. Most people seem to be convinced that Vlad Jr. will start the year in New Hampshire. I am not so sure he will. Its not that he shouldn't start there but there could be reasons why he won't. The fans are always eager to promote prospects, teams are usually much more cautious. In previous springs where the fans were sure prospect X would be promoted, more than half the time he was not. The team could say that Vlad needs to improve his defense before he gets promoted. They could say they want him to elevate the ball more. They could say they want him to play in warmer weather. I have no knowledge of this but I wouldn't bet the farm on Vlad starting the season in New Hampshire.
There is one other consideration. When do the Jays want to see Vlad in Toronto? They likely don't want him there this season. If the Jays are not in the playoff hunt, why start the clock on Vlad? They might want to have him reach the majors after April of next season. That would let them have him under control from 2019 through 2025. If he gets to the majors this year, and sticks, he would be a free agent a year earlier. This might not concern the Jays, there has been some talk that it could be best if the top prospects, Vlad and Bo, did not reach free agency at the same time. But I just wanted to point out that teams play with the timing of players introduction to the majors to extend their time under contract. This has to be a consideration of the Jays. If Vlad starts this season in AA, then hits AAA for the second half, he would likely be called up this year.
Similarly I am 50/50 on where Bo will start the year between Dunedin and New Hampshire. Bo has just 182 at-bats in Dunedin and he could do with more time there.
When planning rosters, the front offices have to consider injuries. Injuries seem to have taken care of some logjams. The injury to Troy Tulowitzki has possibly taken one jam out of the system. Richard Urena, Lourdes Gurriel and Gift Ngoepe were all ticketed for Buffalo. The Jays have said that Urena and Gurriel could alternate between second and short. Where does that leave Ngoepe? It looked like he could have been in the majors leagues before the Jays signed Danny Espinosa. Now where does he go to get playing time? Will he be in AA or a bench player in AAA?
Buffalo also has too many outfielders. The Jays have suggested that Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford, Dalton Pompey and Dwight Smith will play outfield with one DH'ing. The injury histories of Alford and Pompey suggest that there could be room for three outfielders with one on the DL. Alford's injury takes care of one jam. Jonathan Davis and Roemen Fields have received a lot of playing time with the Jays this spring. Are they destined for AA, even though they have spent plenty of time there? The Jays have six potential AAA outfielders. If they are all healthy who plays where? Finally health is a skill. Alford and Pompey don't seem to have it.
If Fields and Davis go to AA they will have to mix in with Conor Panas, Ian Parmley, Harold Ramirez and possibly DJ Davis. Some players could get released or go on the phantom DL.
Buffalo has another jam at catcher. How do you get the most playing time for Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire? What about Max Pentecost, where does he fit? The Jays will likely pick Jansen to play in AAA, send McGuire back to AA and have Pentecost catch a couple of times per week. McGuire has 126 games in AA over the last two seasons, should he go back for another year? The assignments of Jansen and McGuire could be reversed but I believe the Jays rate Jansen more highly.
There is another middle infield issue at the lower levels. The following infielders could play second or short in Dunedin and Lansing: Bo Bichette; Brad Jones; Yeltsin Gudino; Kevin Vicuna; Samad Taylor; Logan Warmoth; Kevin Smith; Luis De Los Santos and Cullen Large. That is nine names for four to six spots. More of these players should be in Lansing, some may have to go to Dunedin to leave room for others. Warmoth, Taylor, Smith, Vicuna, Large and De Los Santos should be in Lansing. They all won't be. If Bichette goes to New Hampshire could the Jays push Warmoth to Dunedin?
The Lansing outfield will be another interesting selection dilemma. Will the speedy trio of Reggie Pruitt, Mc Gregory Contreras and Chavez Young all make the roster? What is Ryan Noda's position? He played some outfield last year because of Kacy Clemens. They should both be in Lansing this year too, so Noda needs playing time somewhere. Rodrigo Orozco played 70 games in Lansing last season, he should return. College players like Brock Lundquist and Brandon Polizzi will also be looking for playing time.
Catcher is also an issue in Lansing. Riley Adams could get the most at-bats. However Ryan Gold and Yorman Rodriguez both played well for Bluefield last season and they are both now 20 years old. They too need to play.
It is usually easier to allocate starting pitchers and the Jays do not have too many of those. The New Hampshire starting rotation could be competitive. Jon Harris, Sean Reid-Foley, TJ Zeuch, Jordan Romano, Francisco Rios, Shane Dawson and Josh DeGraaf are looking to start. Some might get bumped to AA with Harris being the most likely. Dawson might get bumped to the bullpen or to the phantom DL. Pannone's suspension took him out of the lists here.
The Jays have improved their system over the last two years and that makes for lots of competition for playing time. The front office has some decisions to make over the next two weeks.
