Thanks Gerry. Pardhino will have to move up fast. I like Urena. I don't know if Gurriel is better, he is a couple of years older and currently in a lower league. I would be happy if Warmoth lives up to his ranking by turning into a solid performer.

I think Pardinho's only 16 or 17 - I'm not expecting him to move up fast.

Two notes. Anthony Alford has picked up the pace in the Mexican League.  He's slashing .341/..374/.495 (league average OPS is .705) after going 2-4 with a walk yesterday. He has been evening out his W/K as the season rolls on.   

Secondly, this article on vision testing for ballplayers is fascinating.  I hope that the Jays are in on this from both a scouting and development perspective.

encouraging that they would be so bullish on pardinho at so young an age.

Though I have a bit of a hard time with Gurriel cracking the top-10, let alone top-5.

At the start of the 2017 season I mentioned that I was going to give Gurriel a mulligan on 2017 because of the length of his inactivity and that in 2018 we are likely to get a better measure of Gurriel - his AFL stint was certainly encouraging - I'm not expecting a star but hope for a useful player with positional flexibility. I think that Baseball America always rate high draft picks & expensive signees too highly without any actual production.

Surprised that Zeuch is not in BA's top Ten - I'd say that Marc Hulet top ten is more reflective of my own.

Concerning Alford. I am just pleased to know that he seems fully recovered from the hamate injury.

The Mexican League is technically a triple A league.  There have been some systemic changes in the last few years; I couldn't find any estimate of the league quality.  Alford's Jalisco club has Sergio Romo, Ernesto Frieri, Chris Colabello, Billy Burns and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Tony Tarasco is the Manager!).  There are relatively few top prospects like Alford in the league.

Thanks, Mike.

Sounds like the Mexican League is a "wily veterans" league. Could still be a useful test for Alford.

It wasn't a wily veteran's league in 2011:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=osuna-002rob

Check out the -12.9 age difference versus league average for Osuna that year.

Per Davenport, Mexican League (summer ball), where Osuna played, is Double A at best. The quality is better in Mexican Pacific league (winter ball) where Alford is currently playing. It is ranked basically equivalent to Venezuelan winter league which is between AA and AAA in terms of quality.

So the average age in the Mexican League was 29 -- which is older than the average age in the major leagues today. Sounds like wily veterans to me!

ben badler is raving about Bo in the prospects chat.

top-5 prospect he says.

and i agree.

I read through the Q&A chat with Ben Badler, and it's remarkable for how many optimistic takes he has on many players. He's basically the high man on both Guerrero and Bichette due to their offense, but it's notable that he thinks both have a decent shot to stay at 3B and SS respectively.

Obviously, their ranking of Gurriel and Pardinho are aggressive, but even so, it's notable how aggressive they are, and I think we should be cheered by them. Nate Pearson as having the best slider in the organization is awfully promising for his outlook - we know he has a great fastball, he had pretty good control this year (11 walks in 28 innings, including the playoffs), and he has decent reports on his changeup too.

Another notably optimistic take is on Kevin Smith, who Badler really likes defensively.

At the end of 2019 I optimistically believe that all 10 but Pardinho and Warmoth will be ML ready or close.

Injuries... etc will take their toll but some others will rise up and be ML ready or close.

As a reminder about how these lists are here is the 2015 list for the Jays...
1) Daniel Norris (2.6 WAR - part of Detroits rotation)
2) Aaron Sanchez (8.0 WAR - part of Jays rotation)
3) Jeff Hoffman (-0.6 WAR - part of Colorado's rotation)
4) Dalton Pompey (0.7 WAR - in AA/AAA)
5) Franklin Barreto (-0.3 WAR - cup of coffee with Oakland at 21)
6) Max Pentecost (still in minors, not protected on 40 man)
7) Roberto Osuna (5.3 WAR - Jays closer)
8) Richard Urena (-0.3 WAR - cup of coffee here last year)
9) Miguel Castro (0.4 WAR - in Baltimore's bullpen)
10) Sean Reid-Foley (still a prospect)

3 years later: Norris, Hoffman, Barreto, Castro are all traded (parts of Price, Tulo, Donaldson, and Tulo trades respectively).

The vision screen stuff is what it is -- there several similar competing systems. Full disclosure: I've worked (on basic research, not applications) with the team behind a similar test. "Laby has completed an unpublished study for baseball — correlating success with longer durations of quiet eye." This is more interesting, 'quiet eye', I believe, refers to what are known in the jargon as 'micro-saccades' which can be measured, show individual variation, and can affect visual performance. Micro-saccade variation test could be another screening tool for ball players. Despite how the article reads -- I am skeptical that they could be trained in a way that would result in measurable performance improvement for baseball players, especially major-leaguers. Canada is home to one of the leading eye-tracking companies SR-Research. The Blue Jays really ought to get in touch, if they haven't already.

Very nice 2015 top 10 list John. A lot of success for that group. Is it BA's list or Da Box's list?

Pentecost and Pompey held back due to injuries. Part of the game.

Some very young players on both lists.

Players develop. Some slow and others faster. Therefore Ben Badler saying that N Pearson has the best slider in our farm system means that he has improved it a lot or sliders are a work in progress for our system.

If I was to combine the 2 lists. I think N Pearson comes in 5th. The top 4 would be Vlad, just because, Sanchez and Osuna, very close, Bo ... I like him too.

Next Alford at #6.

I wonder how wrong I will be in 2/3 years.

Thanks, Chris, for the insights.  I am tentatively inclined to agree that vision screening for scouting purposes is more likely to bear fruit than vision training for development.

thanks for fhe 15/16 list john. i was pretty sure they had osuna too low then. and hoffman too high.

I'm curious,

What are the chances that Vlad turns out to be a bust? Were there always some bigger question marks on busts like Wood, Davis, Smoak and Montero (Davis and Smoak ovbiously pre-breakouts)? Has there ever been anyone that has handled and dominated minor league pitching up to A that never blossomed into a star? Same thing with Bo...at what level do they have to dominate to be the closest thing to major league ready. I'm assuming AA since that is where Giancarlo, Devers and Longoria dominated before their respective call ups.

Taking a quick glance at Baseball reference, I notice that some studs have had brief times in AA.

Evan Longoria less than 100 games before call up.
Tulowitzki around 100 before call up.
Stanton "struggled" with Batting average but had great power numbers for 100+ games before call up.
Bryant utterly dominated and for a longer time of 120+ games because of delayed call up.

I'm curious,

What are the chances that Vlad turns out to be a bust? Were there always some bigger question marks on busts like Wood, Davis, Smoak and Montero (Davis and Smoak ovbiously pre-breakouts)? Has there ever been anyone that has handled and dominated minor league pitching up to A that never blossomed into a star? Same thing with Bo...at what level do they have to dominate to be the closest thing to major league ready. I'm assuming AA since that is where Giancarlo, Devers and Longoria dominated before their respective call ups.

Taking a quick glance at Baseball reference, I notice that some studs have had brief times in AA.

Evan Longoria less than 100 games before call up.
Tulowitzki around 100 before call up.
Stanton "struggled" with Batting average but had great power numbers for 100+ games before call up.
Bryant utterly dominated and for a longer time of 120+ games because of delayed call up.

Busts happen, and AA will be a good test. Brandon Wood as an example played in offensive parks, in offensive leagues, with tons of strikeouts and few walks. Is Smoak a bust now? He didn't meet expectations, but he's had a long career and one really good season. I guess the big question would be whether the plate discipline was a mirage. I'm not sure which Davis you're talking about. Montero...he had bad plate discipline, and from minimal outsider info, I guess didn't put much effort in improving or developing skills. I imagine that's what it comes to for a lot of busts, or injury, or bad coaching messing up what works because it looks ugly.

If VGJ struggles in 2018, people will be asking why he was sent to play winter ball after the 2017 season.

I remember the late Andy Marte raked in the minors at a young age & I think was the #1 prospect in baseball - The Cleveland Indians (Mark Shapiro) sent Coco Crisp to Boston for can't miss Marte & he missed - might have left an indelible impression on Shapiro - there's no such thing as a can't miss prospect.

not sure what the bust rates are by rank - though i do know they are much higher than people think - but statistically speaking Vladdy has just about the safest profile i ma6 have ever seen - the walk rate, the contact rates, the raw power....it really doesn't get better than that.

Bo actually has better overall stats but the profile is much risker....his patience and power are big question marks and his contact numbers so far rely on a very high average on balls in play which may not be sustainable. the good news with Bo Is that his numbers are so awesome thT he could see a bunch of regression and still look great.

Bo Bichette is much better as an Minor Leaguer than his Dad was, much, much better. Yet, I was trilled to have his dad Dante in my Baseball pool year after year. IMO, Bo is much less risky than his dad was.

Thanks for the feedback. Anybody want to guess an ETA for Vlad/Bo/Alford under this regime if they have success across AA/AAA without any setbacks?

Players who bust usually are great fastball hitters who can't adjust to off-speed, or sometimes pull hitters who can't handle outside pitches. I think Vlad comes with a reputation, because of his father, and he has seen plenty of off-speed stuff and according to scouts he does adjust well.

There are no guarantees but I worry less about Vlad than some other hitters.

BA have updated their org rankings. They have the Jays at #9. They say it is top heavy with Vlad, Bo and Alford.

Vlad's profile makes me a lot more confident about his ability to not be a bust. That type of BB:K ratio at age 18 is not easy to find. He walks a lot, doesn't strike out, makes contact, and will eventually grow into more power. The sky is the limit for him offensively. He can be moved to 1B tomorrow and it would not negatively impact his prospect rating at all, that is how good of a hitter he projects to be. Obviously, players do bust for many reasons, so there is no such thing as a lock, but the red flags are not there for him in his profile. He looks legit.

Bichette as mentioned is likely more of a volatile prospect, but we will get a better idea once we see what he does in AA.

that's a silly low rank for a system that some of their guys think has 2 top 5 prospects, ankther top 50 guy in alford, and at least average depth. at LEAST average (i.e. one of their recent top 100 guys like mcguire coming off a big year and not even cracking the top 10 here).

(lemme have it, parkie baby!)

Ugly, your reasoning is sound on the weirdness of the overall ranking. I'm guessing they don't lay things out like that. I don't know that I'd expect it much higher, though.

I would say there is above average depth....one can make a case for at least 70 prospect deep ranking which I did on a previous thread.

Well in his chat on the Jays top 10, the BA guy said he only expected the Jays to have 3 players (Vlad,Bo, Pearson) in BA's top 100. He also mentioned it was a top heavy system.

and yet here alford is ranked ahead of pearson.

That's not surprising - I think the person doing a team's top ten probably does the ranking for said team, while the top 100 is a group effort.

It is hard to understand BA's rationale. I recall a few years ago when the Jays had a good system, BA rated them lower because of a lack of premium prospects. Now the Jays have premium prospects and the Jays are penalized for a lack of depth.

but alford ranked 59th last year....before he went on to have a very good year in AA this year.

Is it really a big deal if the system is ranked 9th or 7th?
Seems trivial to me - I don't have a problem with BA's rational - they probably look at a combination of Premium prospects & depth - they like 8 systems better - frankly, I'm surprised the jays are that high, I was expecting more in the 12-15 range.

it's not just trivial....it's absolutely meaningless.

much like everything we discuss here.

uglyone if you are baiting us, I will take the bait. If you are being profound, that is a different story.

Certainly this off season to date has been meaningless as have our musings regarding the stagnation.

A Diaz falls between trivial and meaningless... ie a small move.

Chris Smith has signed a minor league deal with the Nats.  Good luck to the guy, he's a great story of perserverence. 

Has there ever been anyone that has handled and dominated minor league pitching up to A that never blossomed into a star?

Brad Komminsk!

Brad handled them all - he hit .334/.433/.596 at AAA Richmond the year he turned 22. He'd hit 28 HRs, mostly at AA the year before, 30 HRs in A ball when he was 20. He could run, he could throw... he just couldn't hit major league pitching.

When Komminsk was 18, he was in the Appy League and was a three true outcome guy- including 74 strikeouts  in 238 PAs.  The number of 18 year olds who have displayed the broad-based set of hitting tools/skills that Guerrero Jr. has in high A ball is very small.  The closest recent player who didn't succeed would probably be Delmon Young.  Young didn't have the plate control (or other control) that Guerrero Jr. has. 

Guys amazing insight by all on some reasonable comps for Vlad.

With these prospects coming, Donaldson would be the perfect guy to have as the leader. Or trade him for a premium prospect like Reyes. That'll work.

If the Jays trade JD, Greene and pannone for Reyes and Grichuk or Gyorko and sign Cobb or Arrieta would they be a better team?

It sounds as if the Pirates are caving on Cole and that the Yankees will be able to get him without having to relinquish Torres. Having gone all in with the Stanton acquisition, it appears New York wants to make sure they win the division in each of the next two or three years at least — leave the wild card spots for the second-division clubs.

Lets hope the Pirates make out like their namesakes and suck the Yankees dry.

As to players dominating - Clint Robinson won a triple crown in AA in 2010 and has a negative lifetime WAR in the majors. He was 25 in 2010 though. In 2013 he was in the Jays system for a year. Washington finally gave him a real shot at age 30 and he was good year one, flopped year 2.

In 2005 Leo Daigle did it too in A+ but again at age 25, spent the next year in AA and retired.

Adam Piatt did it in 1999 in the Texas League (AA) at age 23 but ended up with a lifetime 95 OPS+

Jay Gibbons did it for the Jays in 1998 in Medicine Hat (Pioneer league, as far down as it gets). He was just 21 and it was his first pro season. 397 batting average. 98 RBI in just 73 games. Wow. Under Gord Ash the Jays lost him in the rule 5 draft a couple years later (sigh) and he was OK but not great in the majors (5.6 WAR lifetime, OPS+ of 102).

In 1997 Greg Morrison did it for Medicine Hat as well. Age 21 so a bit old for the league. 448 BA is nothing to sneeze at though. Sadly he never got higher than A+ as a player.

Looking at the triple crown minor leaguers the biggest names I see are Glenn Braggs (1983 rookie ball, age 20, first year as a pro, 5.8 WAR lifetime), Mike Marshall (the hitter) at age 21 in AAA - he hit 320+ at all stops in the minors with a 395+ OBP and a 494+ Slg%. Just 10 WAR lifetime though, as he never came close to what he showed in the minors. 115 OPS+, peak of 141. Jim Rice in 1974 won a triple crown at age 21 he now is in the HOF. Ted Williams also did it in 1938 at age 19 in AA.

So clearly dominating at a low level or even a high level of the minors is no lock to be a great, however, a few greats did tear the minors a new one and kept it going in the majors.

jays are now apparently sleepers for jd martinez...which gives me mixed feelings.

Depends how much they pay. If his price is down to a reasonable level then he could be a bargain in the end. MLB Trade Rumors expects 6 years $150 total. That would be livable, not ideal but could work. His agent wants 7 at $200+ - that would be a stupid thing to do. Put him in RF and try to clear out Morales by any means necessary so he could DH as much as possible. Put kids in LF and keep Carrera around as a backup. Dump Pearce wherever you can. Clearing out Pearce & Morales could cover half his pay year one, but it is the last few years that are potential issues.

If Martinez wants to hit homers coming here might be best (outside of Colorado of course) and the Jays would be keeping him away from Boston then.

I'm not sure what to make of JD Martinez. In his 1st 3 years, he wasn't very good, with OPS numbers of .742, .685, and .650. All of a sudden, in 2014, he did a Brady Anderson and jumped all the way to a .912 OPS. Amazingly, he was able to repeat it for the next 2 years, at .879, and .908. Then last year he was at 1.018 with DET, then a home-park aided 1.107 with ARZ. What are you going to get from him? I guess by now he has proven he's no longer the weak hitter of 2011-2013. He may have been rushed to the big leagues before he was ready. His fielding is not very good, and he has said that he does not want to DH, so you're going to be stuck with his defense, not that anybody is going to take Morales' contract, anyway, unless he has a much better year in 2018. In 2016, Martinez managed to put up a -2.7 dWAR in only 120 games - how do you even do that? This past year, Bautista was -1.4 in 157 games. Then there are the injuries. In his 7 years in the big leagues, he has played in more than 123 games in a season exactly once, although he has played some games in the minors. I think a 5 year mega contract for him has a distinct chance of being a disaster. Of course, he could also be a 4 WAR per year player for the next 3-4 years with a little luck. Usually 2 sides to the coin with free agents.

Brad Komminsk! What a blast from the past - thanks Magpie - I remember the hype, they were engraving his HOF plaque before he even got to Atlanta.

I'm thinking that J.D Martinez's agent is probably behind this rumour.

It doesn’t hurt the Jays front office to suggest that they’re interested in a major free agent like Martinez, either. I think signing him would be a mistake, though — and the front office knows that. Too expensive for the overall value the player will likely provide over the life of the contract. (The home run production would attract stadium-goers and television viewers, though.)

IMO the FO would be making a big mistake by signing expensive FAs to long term deals before a good core is in place.

Look at Houston, Cubs and Twins. They built their core first.

I can't see JD Martinez being the type of player this FO would pursue. Defense is still cheaper than offense, so it would seem unlikely for the organization to pursue a player whose value is all tied up in offense and diminished by his defense.

Last year's overture to Encarnacion still feels like a calculated PR move to me, and to some extent, so was bringing back Bautista. I don't see the pursuits of those two as akin to the pursuits of bat-only players outside of the organization.

Right, Chuck.  Martinez also costs you on the basepaths.  He had a monster year with the bat in 2017, but was merely a very good player because of his other deficits.  If he falls back to his average of the last 4 years, he's just an average-ish player.  If the Jays could off-load Morales, they could spend $5-$7 million more on Martinez and get good value for (perhaps) 3 years.  It's not very likely.

I don't see the defense argument against them signing him - they haven't seemed to have cared that much about defense in previous years's signings.

JD would give me mixed feelings: 1.another no-D player 2.what I think will likely be the most overpaid free agent 3.I'll still be happy because they'd be trying to do something big.

So our farm system is a top 10 farm system, and possibly that is underrated. It must be sad that AA gutted the farm?

Or maybe, just possibly, AA used only a small amount of the farm and still knew there was lots there and/or that it is much easier to rebuild the farm then build a playoff caliber roster?

I highly doubt the Jays are serious contenders to sign Martinez. He's a Boras client, so I'm sure we will hear about a lot of teams being linked to him over the next few weeks before he eventually signs.

Players in Short-Season Ball have very little trade value, yet could cost you 7-10 places overall if they are of poor quality. A.A. left this part of the Minors very well stocked. Players in Full Season Ball below the AA-AAA level are only traded if they are exceptional. A.A. left this part of the Minors well stocked. The fact that the overall status of the minors is now very good just two years later says a lot about how very good A.A. was. Players in AA and AAA have good-great trade value. A.A. picked the area pretty well clean in his trade binge. That's where the complaints arose.

Where that hurt is not being able to pick up useful Players where picking up full salary lets you trade lesser players. A.A. basically didn't leave any. Unfortunately despite all the advances the Players have made, the Team still has a problem in it's ability to make most kinds of trades. The ability to pick up high end talent is probably 1-2 or more years away for the Jays. Donaldson has the ability to pick up high end talent, but that's basically trading an A-list for an A-list. Even then an A-list might not come back and the return might not be enough to acquire an A-list instead. Biagini has high asset value, but in-house value indicates higher need.

And your song of the day. Well, actually yesterday.  I turned it up.

I'll be offline until the New Year.  Happy holidays, bauxites.

JD would give me mixed feelings: 1.another no-D player

Huh. What were Ecarnacion's defensive ratings the last three years?

2.what I think will likely be the most overpaid free agent

Well, he's younger than Encarnacion, but I guess the key is that he's never played for the Blue Jays, because every other player is overrated.

What were your views on Price, again?

3.I'll still be happy because they'd be trying to do something big.

Right, because the Jays didn't spent $400M on free agents the last couple years, so the most important thing is that they throw away a ton of money by "trying to do someting big".

yup:

1.when EE was an FA, we had no DH or 1B. now we have at least 3 that should be limited to that role, and JD would be a 4th.
2.JD is gonna get much more than EE did
3.i'm never going to apologize for being happy when our FO decides to gamble on getting what could be the best avilable player of a certain skillset.

just keep makkng sure to never have an opinion until shappy tells you what to think, parky.

just keep makkng sure to never have an opinion until shappy tells you what to think, parky.

I've always held the same opinion, ugly. That's why I was on board with the Anthopoulos regime when he said the way to build sustained success was through drafting and development. And that's why I was so angry when Anthopoulos started trading those assets for other teams' gigantic contracts and rental players. And that's why I'm on board with the Shapiro regime, because they said they're going to draft and develop. I'm hoping that unlike Anthopoulos, Shapiro actually means it.

Your idea of contention is adding about $500M in payroll commitment in order to add three wins this year, and likely no wins in future years. That's what you don't seem to understand, and I can't figure out why, but gigantic free agent contracts (whether signed, or even worse, traded for once the signing team has already gotten the best value of that contract) very rarely produce value in the long run, but the team still has to PAY those contracts in the long run. It's great than you think Encarnacion would've added 2 wins this year, but the Jays are still stuck with him for the following three years where the team is lucky to get an aggregate of replacement-level value from him. Ditto Fowler. Ditto Martinez. At least the Pearce and Morales contracts don't cost the team crippling amounts of money for three years after you think they're still a contender.

Also, if you really feel the need to make these kinds of utterly incorrect claims about whether I have an opinion, you could at least do me the courtesy of learning your 3rd-grade spelling and syntax.

and i'll never understand why the likes of you are willing to wait through a decade of drafting and developing, but are scared poopless of having some dead money in a few of those years that you're not planning on competing in, anyways.

i can only think it's because you still have the naive belief that those years with low payroll are them "saving" money that they will then spend when it's that magical mythical time to contend that never arrives.

and i'll never understand why the likes of you are willing to wait through a decade of drafting and developing, but are scared poopless of having some dead money in a few of those years that you're not planning on competing in, anyways.

Because you should never "plan" on not competing. That's my whole point.

i can only think it's because you still have the naive belief that those years with low payroll are them "saving" money that they will then spend when it's that magical mythical time to contend that never arrives.

Well, of course you're entitled to your opinion (God knows) but we'll have to agree to disagree, as I think it's more naive to WANT to saddle a team with dead money. I understand the whole "strike when the iron is hot" mentality, but instant gratification usually hurts in the long run.

always remember, through all your condescension, that the only 2 jays teams in history with legit title aspirations were built through massive ballsy trades and big investments in elite free agents.

Ballsy trade ... Fernandes/McGriff for Alomar/Carter.

That was a WOW trade.

Those teams were very strong. But Sam Pollock advised an "over kill". Winfield, Morris and Cone.

It worked. Just barely.

Bpoz

Remember the trade gave the Jays two great players for two great players and opened first base for a third great player, John Olerud. It was really a three star for two star trade.

Very true Mylegacy.

Other than 1992 and 1993, 2015 and 2016 were the only other time the Jays played in the ALCS. All four were the result of ballsy trade and big investment in elite free agents.

Hi Richard,

You omit the 1985, 1989, and 1991 teams that were in the ALCS.

The 1985 team almost won, (and really should have won) the ALCS. It was done largely with alot of homegrown talent, then a couple of key rule 5 and veteran acquisitions.

Serendipity - 1. fortunate, unplanned, happy, co-incidence.
2. Today's "where are they now" profile of Brad Komminsk on Baseball America.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/columnists/now-brad-komminsk/

I think Richard is more saying those 4 years were the only ones where the Jays won a playoff series. 1985, 1989 and 1991 they were knocked out in the first round which was the ALCS back then. 2015/16 the Jays won the ALDS and in 16 they won the Wild Card game.

Thank You John. It's what I meant.

"...And that's why I was so angry when Anthopoulos started trading those assets for other teams' gigantic contracts and rental players...."

You were ANGRY when the Jays finally got into the playoffs?  It's such a strange definition of being a fan.  Angry when they succeed, happy when they lose -- as long as the executives assure you that they are "developing" when they are losing.

The go for it year was 2013 and it was pretty miserable. It led to 2014, which was a year with no hope, the team not planning to field a competitive rotation. 2015 had a lot in common with last year-minus the injuries and they were below .500 after the break. The good times lasted just half a season.

It's hard not to notice the lack of pitching in the top 10.  BA does not like Zeuch.

Most of the players in the top 30, not just  the top 10, should be ready by the end of 2019.
It should be interesting.

China bringing some balance to this discussion... Couldn't agree more. Case in point- the jays haven't actually paid a price for the Tulo trade or Martin signings yet.

Sure the contacts aren't great, but they aren't preventing us from getting Otani, or Stanton (who was only ever going to NYC).

I'll take the playoffs

2013 was certainly a flop but even with the moves it was always a longshot to go from 73 wins to instant contention.

but 2014's projected rotation was Dickey, Buehrle, Morrow, Happ, Hutch, Stroman.

I have always felt that Reyes's awful ankle injury in 2013 made that trade look worse than it was. Before the injury, Reyes was roughly a 4-6 WAR player per year, and he was raking in 2013 before the injury (179 wRC+). In the four seasons since 2013, he has posted 7.4 WAR in total. Some of that decline is no doubt age-related, but I think the injury (which occurred in his age-30 season) sapped his dynamism and led to his being a much lesser player.

Uglyone I accept your projection of Stroman for the 2014 rotation. He fooled me by being so good and getting to the ML so fast. I only just realized how good, 2012 draft pick and only pitched in relief that year. In 2014 total 166 IP and over 200IP ever after, when healthy. He is a STUD. A #1.

How about candidates for 2018's rotation from the farm? Your projection? I will be happy with a #3 type. In 2014 I think Hutch was that, a #3, Era 4.48 and 184.2 IP.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/12/23/16813292/post-hype-player-to-watch-deck-mcguire-p-toronto-blue-jays

yeah stroman was always a good bet for the 2014 rotation after taking care of AA easily the year before.

the only guy that fits into that this year would be Borucki, though of course he's nowhere near the prospect stro was.

and greenfrog, while all the injuries were probably expected, it still kind of sucks that Johnson and Morrow both just up and died on us that year.

I noticed the Stroman 2013 AA. Today.

I will be happy if this FO can extend Stroman, Osuna and Sanchez. Then anyone else that comes up and is good.

I would be satisfied if McGuire could be an adequate 6th starter in 2018 in the mould of Todd Redmond in 2013 (77 innings of 4.40 FIP pitching). Obviously it would be great if he turned out to be more than that.

Nate Pearson might be a fast riser, maybe getting a look by 2019. I think a lot of things will have to go right for the Jays to be a contender next year. Then again, a heck of a lot of things went wrong last year -- injuries to key players, especially Sanchez for basically the season ( and not being able to adequately substitute those players while they were out ), age catching up to Grilli and Bautista, and not being able to replace Edwin's production.Things can only get better in 2018, can't they?

2013 will a point of contention for most people, pro or opposed. But don’t forget, despite all the injuries, the Jays were still within a couple of games of a Playoff berth at the All Star Break.
The Jose Reyes ankle injury robbed the Team of any chance of having the Player they traded for. Josh Johnson was a pumpkin disguised as a Pitcher. He was a long-time Florida Pitcher who rarely pitched in cold weather. I think Detroit, April 11th was his career-changing moment.

If 2013 was a longshot, how do you qualify what the Giants are trying to do? Trading prospects to shore up a 64 win club full of aging players on backloaded contracts?

Reyes was a good player in 13/14.  15 not so much. I don't think that's related to the 13 injury.

Reyes, however, was acquired to be a great player. Being just a good player might not have been enough.

What the Giants are trying to do is more akin to what the Phillies did a few years ago, trying to extend the run of a championship caliber team that had a poor year and in the Giants case their big stars like Bumgarner & Posey are in their prime - What the Jays did is more akin to what the Padres did, which was use the farm system to take on aging, expensive veterans in hope of turning a team that hadn't shown a hint of contention in years into an overnight contender.

Reyes wasn't particularly good in 2013 after his injury. He had a 179 wRC+ in April that year, then got injured. His overall performance fell off badly after his return and he finished the year with a 115 wRC+.

Just because he briefly rebounded to be good (but no longer great) in 2014 doesn't mean that the injury didn't impact him that year or in 2015-2017 (total WAR over those three years: 3.9).

It's logical to assume that a severe ankle injury sustained at age 30 that put a player on the shelf for two months and then required daily heavy taping just to get through games would have a longer-term career impact, especially on a shortstop whose game is based on agility and speed.

Players are human; they aren't robots who are instantly "back to normal" just because they've returned to play.

Alford: 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored for Jalisco last night.

McGuire just needs to be better than Latos and Bolsinger to be a positive.

There's some faint hope for a McGuire/McGuire battery. Maybe in spring training?

If we get a McGuire/McGuire battery lets encourage Mark McGwire to make a comeback :) McGuire throws it by McGwire and McGuire catches it.

B-R has Alford at 343/373/443 in winter ball so far. A few years ago (2014) he played in the Australian winter league and hit 207/327/319 . In 2016 he played in the Arizona Fall league and hit 253/349/440 so stats wise it looks a lot better this year than in the past.

His team has 2 ex-Jays on it.
Chris Colabello: 246/365/311
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 189/339/300

I've had multiple injuries on both ankles and I know it can become chronic.
Baseball is a funny game and players decline randomly.
Certainly his ceiling had dropped after 2013, but I don't think the 2015 drop in performance, was related to that.
His defense wasn't markedly worst in 2015, but he made many costly errors, so the switch to Tulo was felt, even though Tulo wasn't hitting much either.

How would anyone feel about Reyes on a one year contract as a super-utility guy? Yeah, maybe not.

Consider, in 2015, there was Donaldson, Smoak, Martin and Pillar, Tulo was an improvement over Reyes.
There was Bautista in right field, but left field and second base saw a lot of bench players, Revere, Goins, Colabello, Carrera, Travis, Valencia, Pompey, Tolleson, Saunders, Kawazaki, etc....

Jake Arrieta would be a great pickup for the Jays. That said, he's going to be expensive and his success comes strictly from the NL. I don't know how successful he'll be in the AL. So I thought I'd look at who might be an acceptable acquisition for the Jays. Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are about all the other Free Agents I'd be interested in on a three or more year deal. If the Jays only need some to pitch until Biagini's ready to come up, then I have no idea who's acceptable?

My best guess is that Brett Anderson will return.

" I think a lot of things will have to go right for the Jays to be a contender next year. "

we've now been rumoured in on cain, martinez, and hand.

now imagine a spooky universe where we.....sign all three.

RF Cain
3B Donaldson
LF Martinez
1B Smoak
DH Morales
2B Travis
SS Tulowitzki
C Martin
CF Pillar

UT Pearce - Hernandez
OF Carrera - Alford - Pompey
IF Diaz - Urena
C Maile - Jansen - McGuire


SP Stroman
SP Sanchez
SP Happ
SP Estrada
SP Biagini - Borucki

CL Osuna
SU Leone
SU Hand
MR Barnes
MR Tepera
MR Loup
LR Biagini - Borucki

and maybe try to swap some of that surplus position player depth for some SP depth.

happy days are here again.

If for any reason, Devon Travis cannot stay healthy, I expect this will be his last year with the Jays. So what is or what would be considered as acceptable health? I think That Devon playing at least 140 or more games consistently is a good start. An injury he experiences must not be considered in any way, shape or form to be re-occurring past injuries. Freak stuff happens. Re-occurring injuries are not acceptable.

Whereas there may be differing opinions on the subject, I think Aledmys Diaz is an acceptable replacement at SS or 2B and just possibly 3B. The Jays are more probably concerned with what happens when both Travis and Tulowitzki are down. This means you need another acceptable replacement. When you add a possibility of Donaldson being hurt, this might be more than the Team can handle. To get the best possible replacements or at least a better class than past means they need to play semi-regularly somewhere, except DH is not available. That limits who the Jays can acquire.

Steve Pearce plays an acceptable 1B and must not play any where else or play fulltime. In other words, he doesn't have any place to play most of the time. Kendrys Morales plays an adequate 1B and should be mostly limited to being DH because he can't play anywhere else. Neither of these players are considered versatile, so they block acquiring people who are more versatile.

"we've now been rumoured in on cain, martinez, and hand.

now imagine a spooky universe where we.....sign all three."

Hand isn't a FA. He'd cost some excellent prospects to get. The others would just cost money but the Jays are not adding $40M-$45M/year to push them closer to the 2nd wild card.

If Travis can't stay healthy, he probably becomes a bench player.
I'm not sure he would have much trade value. He's been on the DL the last 3 October.

"the Jays are not adding $40M-$45M/year to push them closer to the 2nd wild card."

this sentence ran on at least 9 words too long.

If we start since Season end, the Jays are "in" on almost everybody. Whether via Free Agency or via Trade, the Jays have been "in" on at least four Outfielders and maybe two or three more. We can add being "in" on probably four or maybe as many as seven Middle Infielders and "in" on at least three Relievers. Oddly enough, there is almost no rumors on Starting pitching, even though the Jays have said (since early October) they were looking. What we end up with could be a surprise.

All good ideas, even though I disagree with them.

Nice polite conversation too. So I will not be disagreeable. After all Christmas is the season to be nice. It was nice of R Atkins to not spill the beans and tell all. This way he does not break any promises. Super nice of Shapiro to be respectful and considerate and not start his rebuild a year ago. He said competitive or contending. Not sure which. Also unsure if there is a difference.

Language and words can be used to communicate. IMO a competitive team is one that wins 83 games. A contending team wins 87.

I love spooky universes. In mine, imaginary, I sacrifice 2018 and 2019. July/Aug 2019 I promote Vlad and Bo so that they get 200+ ABs in Toronto. Both are good and have monster debuts. I imagine a 5 year minimum, window of contending starting in 2020.

At the end of 2019 we are young and cheap because we did not sign any expensive long term FAs for 2018 and 2019.Just let young players like T Hernandes, Alford, catchers, IFs and pitchers get their ML experience. Keep all good SPs, maybe even the only decent SPs. Consider trading good bullpen pieces like 1 or 2 of Tepera, Barnes and D Leone if replacements look promising.

Spend a lot of money inside our window. Stroman, Osuna and Sanchez will have to be paid a lot to stay. FAs will come too for a shot at a WS.

1 year D Winfield.

Outfield Free Agents:
J.D. Martinez is lookin for $30.0 Million/year, but liable to get $25.0 Million/year. He doesn't defend well enough to be worth the money needed to sign him.
Lorenzo Cain would be ideal for the Jays, but he's liable to be after $18.0-$20.0 Million/year. I don't think the Jays are willing to go that high.
Jay Bruce has been rumored to the Jays since forever. He's still good offensively, but Jays also need defense. I don't think they are that interested.
Carlos Gomez is a good hitter and a good defender, but might have time down to injury.

I can go on except those later are not that good offensively and defensively. They are basically one more than the other. It's possible the Jays will meet the price asked by some but not the term or they will meet the term but not the price. I just think the Jays need a switch hitter or a left-handed hitter who can run, defend and hit - all well enough.

This is the type of market where there is bound to be a player or two that will end up settling for a contract less than anticipated. There will be a historically good FA market next winter and teams will likely be less inclined to give out big contracts now in a weak FA market. Teams are also a lot smarter about value so sluggers with no defensive value won't be getting the type of contracts they used to.

If Martinez came at a discounted price (in years, specifically) then he would be worth keeping an eye on. There is no smoke and mirrors with him. He hits the ball hard and is a legitimately great hitter. Since 2014, he has the 5th highest wRC+ in baseball, tied with Harper and Goldschmidt, slightly ahead of Donaldson, and just behind Stanton. The issue is defense and the amount of years he is looking for. He is not going to be the difference between a good team and a great team for this particular Toronto team, so signing him would only make sense if it came at the benefit of the team somehow (low amount of years). I don't see Boras settling, especially when teams were willing to give up assets for Stanton for a lot more years and money. I'm sure those same teams will be in on Martinez (Giants/Cards) who won't cost anything except money, not even a pick.

I'm glad the FO is waiting out the market instead of jumping too soon. Some times it works (Happ) and some times it doesn't (Morales), but this isn't the type of FA market where you pounce early. The names are just not good enough, especially in the position the Jays are in. Next year's market might be a good time since there are so many big names out there that some of the mid-tier guys might get overlooked, but in this market, I'd definitely wait.

Steamer has Martinez at 130 wRC+ (2.5 WAR) next year, with poor baserunning and defense. He'll be 31 next summer and he has managed to play more than 123 games only once in his career. I just don't see him as a player the Jays should be pursuing, even if his contract demands come down a bit.

I don't think there's any FA player worth overpaying in this market to be honest, including Martinez. This would be one of the years where I would sign a stop gap and hope one of the young players wins a spot (Alford, Teoscar), but if the Jays are waiting out the market to see if prices fall, then Martinez would be one guy who might be worth keeping an eye on. Cain is another, but he comes with a lost draft pick and lost international money, so that has to be factored in.

The Jays are at a point where they should rebuild, but won't/can't. So the best way to approach the off-season would be to try to get the most amount of value for the least amount of term that won't hinder any avenues to acquire young talent (so no FA's tied to the QO). So guys like Martinez and Bruce, as flawed as they are, could be worth pursuing if the prices drop to a point where it becomes reasonable. I wouldn't expect that with JDM. Bruce is a possibility.

It seems most teams, including the Yankees, are loathe to lose a pick +  international pool money. The Yankees are actually losing more since they are paying tax. This might be a time where it makes sense for the Jays to trade a pick for an impact player on a team friendly contract.

Alford doubled in his 1st and only AB tonight and then left game with an ankle injury after a putout at 2b. I have no information as to the severity of the injury.

Just for information purposes:
APRIL.......: 0-1, 2.70, 30.0, 25 Hits, 10 BB, 33 K
MAY.........: 4-1, 3.49, 38.2, 34 Hits, 07 BB, 45 K
JUNE........: 0-4, 9.10, 27.2, 42 Hits, 18 BB, 27 K
JULY........: 0-1, 6.48, 25.0, 23 Hits, 16 BB, 22 K
AUGUST....: 3-1, 5.35, 35.1, 40 Hits, 12 BB, 29 K
SEPTEMBER: 3-1, 3.68, 29.1, 22 Hits, 08 BB, 20 K
Earned Marco Estrada a one year $13.0 Million contract extension. What should Free Agents Pitchers earn?

One thing to remember is the Jays keep their first pick, #12, no matter what. A free agent signing costs them their second-highest draft pick (#12 in round 2, or #42 or lower) and $500K of international bonus pool money. The $500k is a bigger deal I suspect. Only 3 42nd picks have ever cracked 10 WAR - Dennis Leonard, Mookie Wilson, and Clay Buchholtz. Only 3 more cracked 1 WAR. 18 of 53 have reached the majors so far. It is a nice pick but 3-5 years of a solid major leaguer is more valuable I suspect.

From Jalisco:


Outfielder Anthony Alford has a sprained right ankle. It is expected that in a week he can return to physical work to integrate with the team.

Just for the information:
APRIL.......: 2-2, 2.97, 36.1, 37 Hits, 07 BB, 28 K
MAY.........: 4-0, 3.62, 32.1, 36 Hits, 12 BB, 28 K
JUNE........: 2-2, 3.69, 31.2, 29 Hits, 05 BB, 28 K
JULY........: 1-1, 2.03, 31.0. 27 Hits, 19 BB, 25 K
AUGUST....: 2-1, 3.20, 39.1, 43 Hits, 08 BB, 30 K
SEPTEMBER: 2-3, 2.97, 30.1, 29 Hits, 11 BB, 25 K
Is Marcus Stroman a bonafide ACE? How long should he be signed for?

Merry Christmas to all and I wish everybody a happy and healthy 2018!

Merry Christmas.