Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette should be untradeable. No one else should be.

I'd even move Bichette in the right trade, although I think that other teams may want to see his swing hold up at AA or AAA before they pay proper value.

At the time of the Devon White trade, I believe Junior Felix was considered better. He was producing for the Jays and White was in the Angels doghouse. That was not a big trade at the time.
Similarly M Sharperson for J Guzman. Not a big trade at the time.

I am leading up to AA hiring an army of scouts, but IMO he did not find any hidden gems in the minors.

I believe that the intl market is full of hidden gems. For example in theory as Vicuna and Gudino get older they will get stronger etc... Of course you are gambling on the outcome. Pitchers IMO can be better, they too can grow and certainly get stronger. If a young pitcher with a great arm has terrible control and terrible success at developing an extra pitch you hope that he will eventually learn. That is your unknown, your gamble. If he has control, and 3-4 pitches but not enough velocity, your gamble is that the velocity will come with age. That heavy ball concept may also help.

Actually there were a few small deals that worked out. Marco Scutaro and Devon Travis to name 2. A 3rd J Bautista.

Harold Ramirez and Chris Rowley have been removed from the 40 man roster. No surprises there.

I believe Junior Felix was considered better.

Maybe a more interesting question: Was he considered older? On paper, we traded a 23 year old for a 28 year old. However, a few years later it was revealed that many believed that Felix was much older - at least 5-10 years - than his birth certificate indicated (see: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1993-01-28/sports/9303173083_1_angel-manager-buck-rodgers-junior-felix-florida-marlins). I've always wondered if the Jays had their suspicions, particularly because Felix signed with the team as a teenager and spent five years in the organization...

Ben Nicholson-Smith listed 8 players who the Jays might wish to add to the 40 man.  They have 6 slots.  Rios is likely to be exposed, and we'll see about the other. 

Cleveland has claimed Rob Refsnyder on waivers. Our long national nightmare is over. Mine anyway.

GAh. I hate trying to use this site on my phone

Cleveland has claimed Rob Refsnyder on waivers.

I'd love to know what these teams, the Jays included, keep seeing in this guy. What potential skill has gone untapped?

So apparently there's a Paul Morosi rumor about an offer from SF for Stanton (and Gordon) of Joe Panik (2b), Tyler Beede (SP), Chris Shaw (1b/LF)
Jeff Sullivan suggested that it's either salary relief or prospects, not both. (both same Fangraphs article).
That seems like... not much.
I almost feel it's worth seeing if there's a better offer that doesn't decimate the prospect depth.

-Panik is arbitration eligible, solid defensively and offensively, but bad if he doesn't hit for a decent average.
-Beede is okay, but seems like more mid-rotation than anything special (fan graphs has him at 50FV). His K/BB shrunk a lot and HR went up a lot (in the PCL) his GB% has gone down and really outside of last season in AA and a short stint in rookie and low A, in 2014 he has a bad strikeout rate. he's also 25 next year. He's the #3 prospect for the Giants apparently
-Shaw is a 1B/LF He's shown some power and decent plate discipline, but his BB/K cratered this season in his first exposure to AAA. His AA power numbers are not so good. He's also not young at 24.  Shaw is #2 prospect apparently.  (45FV)
-Do you give up Travis trying to make this deal? He's comparable to Panik, but younger (barely), cheaper, and more injury prone. Still leaves the Jays with bad depth in the IF
The Giants offer is closer to the majors, and I'm not giving up Bichette/Alford, but I'd start with Green and Pentecost and see how far that goes. I'm not sure what else I'd be willing to give up, so I thought I'd see what anyone thought might be enough and they might stomach. FWIW Greene is a 45 FV and Pentecost 40FV so not enough on their own, for sure.

This kinda stuff is hard.

No discussion about the newest 'Gift' we got for an early Christmas?

Is it clear that it's even a gift? Looks like a strong candidate to be re-gifted.

If the Jays FO wanted to be bold without selling off the future, they should capitalize on the Marlins situation - offer to give the Marlins the financial flexibility they want - take the contracts of Stanton,Gordon,Prado and Yelich - over 400m in future obligations - not much talent in return - a package of Travis,Biagini,Carrera,Goins,Morales (the 1 money contract whom they can probably offload on a team like KC if they lose Moose/Hos by eating 2-3m per year), Pentecost,Jon Harris and maybe a relief prospect. Try to interest Texas in Pearce as a cheaper/more versatile replacement for Napoli along with a reliever ( Barnes/Leone) for Profar. Try to sign Tyler Chatwood (3/18). I would trade Donaldson for prospects - hopefully to Atlanta/St.louis - looking for pitching for 2019/2020.

For 2018 - Stanton (25m), Gordon (10.8m),Prado (13.5m),Yelich (7m) and Chatwood (6m)- adds 62.3m to payroll.

Donaldson (20.7m projected),Morales (11m),Pearce (6.25m),DFA/Trade Koehler (6m),Travis/Goins/Carrera (5m)
- remove 49m approx. from payroll

Difference of about 13-14m - so if around 20-25m to spend maybe still money to add a LHP like Jake Mcgee.

Outfield - Stanton - Pillar - Yelich

infield - Smoak - Gordon - Tulo - Prado

Catcher - Martin

bench - Maile - Profar - Roemon Fields - Jonathan Davis - cheap veteran infielder.

DH spot open to rest veterans - let's say the Jays play 6 games a week - DH - Martin (2),Tulo,Prado,Stanton,Smoak
with Profar playing 3/4 games a week, Maile catching 3 games.

Rotation - Stroman/Estrada/Happ/Sanchez/Chatwood
with Pannone/Borucki/Guerrieri/minor league signee in AAA

Stanton is the 1 longterm potential albatross contract - if he has a great run with the small AL east ballparks, maybe he optts out in 3 years.

My fantasy - of course, no chance it happens.

I would like to know what people who are wanting to trade for Stanton think they're getting. Do you expect he's going to perform like he did last year? He's been extremely injury prone, and last year was by far his best season. His career OPS is more than 100 points lower than last year's. He's missed time due to injuries to his hand, hamstring (3 times), knee (twice), face, shoulder, side (twice), foot and groin. His contract runs for another 11 years, including the buyout/option year. Over the course of his 8 years in mlb, he's played in an average of 123 games per season, a number that rises about 3 games if you don't count his first season when he came to the majors in June and played 100 games. As players age they get more injury prone, not less, and take longer to heal. I just don't think I'd want to take on that contract.

If the Jays FO wanted to be bold without selling off the future...

That's beyond bold into completely unrealistic and no way anything remotely like that happens. Even though it's not as fun, I'm hoping to see some realistic scenarios.
I'd also like to hang onto Donaldson at least for the season.

I think Ngoepe is infield insurance in case of not getting a better option. He's an okay fielder at least, with a bad bat but maybe some room for improvement. He walks a bunch but strikes out even more - bad contact slugger a lot. I thought maybe he had options, but it doesn't look like it. But AAA guy with MLB experience and can field has a chance at replacement, so as long as he's not on your bench, but a call-up, that would be an improvement for the Jays.

I would like to know what people who are wanting to trade for Stanton think they're getting. Do you expect he's going to perform like he did last year?

Obviously not. You're getting a guy, who when he's healthy has a shot at hitting 60 HR, playing reasonable defense for the position, and hitting for a decent average.
Normally, you're probably 250/260 with 28-35 HRs and reasonable defense. The point of getting him is because Guerrero Jr, Bichette, and Alford, even if they are just as successful at MLB, aren't likely to be enough.

The whole point is that you can get that player for mostly money - or you can pay less money and give up better prospects - precisely because it's a ton of money. Whether you believe their math or not, Stanton is supposedly being paid what he's worth, not a ton more. If there's a catastrophic injury, or continuing current trends then might not be great for the last half of it.

A deal seems more feasible now than it did before knowing that offer.

"Normally, you're probably 250/260 with 28-35 HRs and reasonable defense"

That sounds like a reasonable expectation. It also sounds like way too little for the amount of money he's going to be getting. It could be spent much better.

Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
BREAKING: Star prospect Kevin Maitan is one of 12 Atlanta Braves minor leaguers expected to be declared a free agent after league investigation, sources tell Yahoo Sports. In addition, Braves will suffer significant restrictions in 2019-20 and 2020-21 international FA classes.

Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
2m
Other penalties: The Braves will not be allowed to sign 14-year-old shortstop Robert Puason, the top player in the class of 2019, with whom they had illegally struck a deal. Atlanta also will lose a third-round draft pick in 2018 for offering inducements to a drafted player.



that's kinda big.

Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
In statement Manfred announces former #Braves GM John Coppolella is banned for life, international head Gordon Blakely for 1 yr

That sounds like a reasonable expectation. It also sounds like way too little for the amount of money he's going to be getting. It could be spent much better.

That's a matter of opinion. If the cost isn't much higher than the SF offer, I am absolutely okay with the money being the cost of the upside of 280/60. That's not likely, 280/50 might not even be. . But someone capable of hitting 280/45 on a regular basis is rare. There is also the non-negligible possibility that playing a ton in the dome increases his stats so he's pushing 50 HR regularly. He would most likely opt out at that point, but I'd be okay with that too. The bad outcomes are trading too much prospect capital to reduce the cost, or a catastrophic injury less so the status quo. 

I'd love to know what these teams, the Jays included, keep seeing in this guy. What potential skill has gone untapped?

Refsnyder showed a pretty decent hit tool and pretty good contact ability throughout his minor league career. He just hasn't shown any of these abilities in about a half-season's worth of career MLB ABs.

He'd probably get more of a shot to work things out at the MLB level if he could even play a respectable 2B. But the fact the Yankees played him just as much in the OF and 1B as reps he got at 2B probably speaks to his unplayability there.

"But someone capable of hitting 280/45 on a regular basis is rare"

Yes, indeed it is, but that's not what you said was probable for Stanton. You said 28-35 with a .250/.260 average. As to his current contract being worth that level of performance being a "matter of opinion", well, you can say just about anything is a matter of opinion, but I think you'd be very hard pressed to find many people who would think that $295 million over 10 years (including the buyout) is a reasonable contract for a player who hits .250-.260 with 28-35 HR's and plays adequate defense.

Since I think it will be tough to extend Donaldson for a contract that I'd support - I hope the Jays are aggressively marketing Donaldson especially with reports the Cardinals are aggressively chasing a big bat & the Braves could use Donaldson to announce that the rebuild phase is over, take away from the Coppolella scandal & have a GM who loves Donaldson.I hope Stanton goes to the Giants.

Refsnyder showed a pretty decent hit tool

That sounds like baseball's version of corporatespeak.

Refsnyder showed a pretty decent hit tool

That sounds like baseball's version of corporatespeak

Well he's a career .294/.374 at AAA in over 200 games with decent strikeout rates.

You asked what teams saw in him, and that's what they see as possible future value. Guys that can hit like that and play 2B (and available for free) are rare.

I was excited when we picked him up from the Yankees, but quickly tired of him as well. Gibbons decided he wasn't a major leaguer before rosters expanded and pinned him to the bench. I thought they should have given him more Sept ABs to see if he could hit at the MLB level. But his anemic bat and terrible D wore out his welcome too quickly

Well he's a career .294/.374 at AAA in over 200 games with decent strikeout rates.

I wasn't arguing with your assessment, only teasing you for the language you used ("showing a decent hit tool").

It's more "scoutspeak" than "corporatespeak"

Refsnyder showed a pretty decent no-hit tool with the Jays along with a poor-fielding tool. I couldn't wait to see the last of him.

We don't know what is genuine interest and what is rumor created by the writers.

The Twins are looking at getting 2 good SPs. How true is that? They definitely have built a good young core and tasted success. So making some big additions is the general concept that a poor team will follow. They want to make the most of their window for contending. IMO it is important that they don't miss out. So a FA like Cobb is someone to pursue. The loss of a draft pick is more acceptable to them rather than a rebuilding/retooling team like the Jays.

"The Twins are looking at getting 2 good SPs. How true is that? They definitely have built a good young core and tasted success. So making some big additions is the general concept that a poor team will follow. They want to make the most of their window for contending. IMO it is important that they don't miss out. So a FA like Cobb is someone to pursue. The loss of a draft pick is more acceptable to them rather than a rebuilding/retooling team like the Jays."

Twins are also in a very weak division. Tigers are rebuilding, Royals will be terrible, and the White Sox are only in year 2 of their rebuilding plan. Last year, the Twins were 33-23 against those teams.

E Santanna and J Berrios had v good years for the Twins. Then both failed in the WC game against the NYY. I cannot imagine how horrible that must have felt for any Twins fan watching.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/ross-atkins-on-blue-jays-preliminary-offseason-efforts.html#respond


"Toronto’s top priority remains “protect[ing] our middle infield,” says Atkins, who acknowledges the organization cannot simply rely upon Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki to handle regular duties. The ideal player — who, Atkins acknowledges, doesn’t likely exist — would not only add “depth and versatility” up the middle but would be a left-handed hitter that can also play in the outfield. More likely, he says, achieving all of these goals will involve multiple players. Atkins suggests a major outfield addition isn’t likely, explaining that he believes there’s “good depth” on hand but expressing a desire to find a way to “complement” the existing players “a little bit better.”
Atkins also expanded a bit on his previously stated intentions to seek some pitching depth. The goal, he says, is “complementing our pitching in some significant way.” A back-end starter would be one possibility, per Atkins, but the team could also pursue an “elite reliever or some hybrid of the two.” It seems, then, that there’s some flexibility in the organization’s thinking on the pitching side of the ledger. More than chasing a single pitcher, perhaps, the front office will be looking for a high-value opportunity in this area."



TL/DR:

blahblahblah depth players depth players because this and depth and no impact players because depth players and this and that and depth....

Blah...blah is quite correct.

For our discussions, lets define impact, backup and depth players.
IMO impact has to have better expectations than back up and depth players. In all 3 categories the player has to be considered good for his category. I expect a lot of variation in opinions.

S. Pearce is an impact player. He has v good numbers but can only be counted on for about 300 ABs. Definitely K Morales is an impact player. Is not great, has flaws, but gives you 500 ABs with some good numbers. He seems quite consistent.

Tepera and Barnes were good enough set up men last year. So impact arms. Grilli was in 2016 but could not repeat in 2017. He was a counted on as a 2017 impact arm.

Happ, Estrada and Liriano were impact SPs coming out of ST. Happ was better than impact, Estrada was better than impact in 2015 and 2016 and definitely impact in 2017. 33 starts and 186 IP does it for me. Liriano was below impact in 2017.

So based on that I will see what R Atkins delivers.

Donaldson, Happ, Estrada, and Pearce are free agents after 2018. Smoak has a team option. Martin and Morales will be free agents after 2019 (assuming they hold on to Morales that long). Investing in "impact" players in a weak free agent market just to squeeze a 2nd WC spot out of this group before it disbands is not a smart strategy. By all means, do whatever it takes to get Ohtani, but if/when that fails, then the team will go back to the formula they had the last two seasons, which is finding the best short-term value that is available to them. Signing free agents makes sense if the team had a young core that was a piece or two away, but not in the position the Jays are in. Losing a 2nd round pick plus international money to possibly increase the chances for a 2nd WC spot is not a sound strategy.

This FO wants to build from within. When a prospect is ready to take over, they will be given every chance to win a spot and run with it. Chances are that Hernandez and Alford will have two of the outfield spots either some time in 2018 (beginning/mid season) or definitely 2019. Do you want Cain for $15-20M AAV in his 30's when you could potentially get equal or better value for the minimum? Cain won't be a 3-4 WAR player per season over the life of the 4-5 year deal he gets, and while Teoscar/Alford are not locks to be viable big league outfielders, at some point you're going to have to take a chance given the potential surplus value young players come with. That's why someone like Dyson makes sense since he can cover for a player who doesn't pan out.

Finding a SP who can fill a rotation spot in 2019-beyond is a higher priority since the Jays don't have much depth there in the upper minors. Plus, pitching prospects in general are much riskier to count on. Having a vet rotation and a core of young position players is the way to go.

Here's a thought: why don't they just tell us that's what they want to do, instead of treating us like children?

(IF your spin is correct, of course.)

Once Ohtani signs with the Yankees, the Jays can start planning how best to compete for a WC spot over the next few years.

I don't imagine the Yankees would let Ohtani hit--and run the bases, but I can imagine the drama.

He's a good hitter, but he has a long swing and will probably struggle.

I would not be surprised that offers have been made and are being weighed by the players.

Hernandez is as big league ready as he is ever going to be, and Alford is likely a little bit of AAA seasoning away as well assuming he's fully recovered from his 2017 injury. Throwing big money and term at a 32-year old outfielder when you could potentially have two OF spots covered internally for the league minimum is not a smart option for a team that is in the Jays current position.

Reality is, if the Jays want to bridge to the next wave of players, they will have to rely on internal development. That means taking a chance on prospects that have a good amount of upper minors experience and look ready. You don't hand them the positions; you build depth and have the young player win the spot. That's why I like Jarrod Dyson as a target. He could start in the event that no one wins the OF job, and slide into a 4th OF spot later on if that changes.

That is how you incorporate prospects into big league roles. What if the Jays signed an established starter instead of adding disposable depth like Floyd/Chavez in 2016? What happens to Sanchez in that scenario? You can say the Jays are cheaping out or are obsessed with finding value, but to build the type of team they want to build, it will have to be at the expense of the types of deals being discussed here (Cain, for example). They won't be signing stars, they will be developing them. That's the goal. Whether it happens remains to be seen.

I'm not saying to never sign free agents, but it has to make sense.

we have one legit OF. and he is all glove.

and we have to worry about even that one legit OF's starting ability if his glove starts to slip.

This is also true of Tulo, although the prevalence of shifting mitigates the problem somewhat.

scottt good point on how Ohtani might struggle with the bat thus making the hitting part a short term thing (ala Dave Stieb). A smart club that can afford a few losses due to a poor hitter might see that and say 'screw it, let him hit in 2018, and be a pure pitcher in 2019 and beyond'. Short term pain for long term gain. Wouldn't be shocked if the Jays are thinking this way with the weakness in LF/RF and DH right now. I mean how much worse than Saunder's OPS+ of 13 in 20 PA, and Bautista's 76 could he be? Pearce with nightmare defense was at 96 and our star CF was only at 83. Ick. Maybe Stroman should play in the OF on offdays with his 182 OPS+ last year (66 lifetime which is very good for a pitcher).

Another thing Ohtani seems to want is a 6 man rotation so the stress is less on him coming over. That is do-able as only Stroman really is a 200 IP guy (Happ and Estrada could be, I wouldn't want to push Sanchez that far).
So the rotation, giving Stroman a 5 day cycle, the rest 6 or 7, would be....
St-Oh-H-E-Sa-St
6-Oh-H-E-St-Sa
6-Oh-H-St-E-Sa
6-Oh-St-H-E-Sa
6-St-Oh-H-E-Sa
St-6-Oh-H-E-St
Sa-6-Oh-H-St-E

Just to give an idea of how it could work. Not as simple as everyone getting the same rest every time but certainly opens up possibilities. Off-Days would let #6 get days off, and maybe put Sanchez in the pen for short stretches too. It'd require a lot of work by the manager and pitching coach to keep everyone onside but if success came early it'd be great.

"we have one legit OF. and he is all glove."

The Jays can still sign or trade for an outfielder. Dyson is a good idea. The Cardinals have a bunch of outfielders so there might be a trade match there (Grichuk seems to fit the type of player this FO looks for with his batted ball profile). I'm not a fan of Pearce in LF, but that's always an option in an absolute worst case. The key is to have depth. Once that happens then prospects can organically win spots and pieces can be moved around.

To look at the blueprint, see how the Yankees dealt with their roster the past few years. It is about the perfect way to do what the Jays want to do without rebuilding. Once Judge was ready, trade Beltran. Once Sanchez was ready, trade McCann while eating up some salary. Once A-Rod and Tex were released/retired, give Bird one of the spots and go with short-term fill-ins (Holliday) with the other until a long-term option becomes available. Rinse and repeat. The key will be developing players. The new age Yankees would give Hernandez a spot in 2018, maybe add a disposable depth piece in case he failed, and go from there. I expect the Jays to do the same.

I don't think Otani will struggle to hit in mlb. His numbers in Japan are in the range of what Hideki Matsui and Ichiro Suzuki hit at the same age. Suzuki had a somewhat higher batting average with less power, Matsui had a bit more power but a lower batting average. I expect he will outhit any of the Jays current outfielders - Pillar, Alford, Hernandez, Pompey, Pearce or Carrera over his career if given the chance. Not sure how he projects defensively in the OF, but he obviously has a good arm, and he has a very good SB %, with a few triples on his resume, so he probably isn't too slow. Really looking forward to seeing him in mlb.

"....Once Judge was ready, trade Beltran...."

But if your best outfield prospects are Teoscar and Alford, rather than Judge, you might need a somewhat different strategy.

Yes, there's a chance that Teoscar and Alford could be very good, but it's more likely that they will be average major-leaguers.  (Which is already perhaps an optimistic scenario for most prospects.)  Teoscar is 25 and Alford will be 24 in July and we don't even know for certain whether they will establish themselves as regulars in the majors.  You have to be realistic in assessing your prospects, and then -- even while hoping that the prospects might turn into better-than-average players -- you might decide to acquire a veteran who is almost certain to be substantially better than average for a couple of seasons.  I don't think you should let young prospects struggle for a couple of years, while hoping that they turn into stars, unless you have already written off the season, or unless you are pretty certain that they are going to be very good major-leaguers in the long term. 

"....What if the Jays signed an established starter instead of adding disposable depth like Floyd/Chavez in 2016? What happens to Sanchez in that scenario?..."

Sure, but there's really no comparison between Sanchez in 2016 and the two outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford today.  Sanchez had always been a better prospect than Teoscar or Alford, and by the beginning of 2016 he had already established himself as an excellent major-league pitcher.  The only question about him was his role (bullpen or rotation).  By contrast, neither Teoscar nor Alford have established themselves as major-leaguers yet.  There is much more doubt about them.  If their main advantage is simply that they are cheap and potentially could save the Jays a lot of money, that by itself doesn't persuade me that you let them have a slot on the major-league roster.

If the Jays acquire one very good veteran outfielder, and they also have Pillar, there's still room for Alford or Teoscar to force themselves into the starting lineup.  Let them compete with others (Pompey, Carrera etc).  If they are clearly the best, give them a job, but don't give it to them automatically just to save money.

"Sanchez had always been a better prospect than Teoscar or Alford, and by the beginning of 2016 he had already established himself as an excellent major-league pitcher. The only question about him was his role (bullpen or rotation)."

Sanchez had a 4.61 FIP in 2015 with a 6/4 K/BB ratio. It's hard to consider that as "establishing himself as an excellent major league pitcher". That he had a fantastic year in 2016 was definitely not expected.

"Here's a thought: why don't they just tell us that's what they want to do, instead of treating us like children?"

What they want to do is extremely clear. They want to rebuild the team and create a strong foundation for the future where the team can compete every year without giving up on winning now. That means, no massive long-term deals, no trading prospects for veterans, no giving up draft picks, while not trading major league talent that can help the team win now (unless they fall out of it this year).

This is a perfectly fine option. The only other option the team has is to completely rebuild which still could happen. The fantasy option of trying to compete by signing big name free agents is not an option a serious or intelligent front office would consider.

Judge looked bad last year bud suddenly showed in spring training and won the job.
Now, to me, he looks a lot like Sanchez--the catcher--he's probably already started his decline and it could be swift.

Hitters in their mid 20s should be at their peak and there isn't much to learn at AAA besides fielding.
I wouldn't mind having an athletic outfield in 2018. In fact, I'd like watching that.

"What they want to do is extremely clear. "

lol. they sure have a hard time explaining that extremely clear plan.

"The new age Yankees would give Hernandez a spot in 2018, maybe add a disposable depth piece in case he failed, and go from there. I expect the Jays to do the same."

The jays signing someone like Cain or whoever would not in any way jeopardize giving a starting spot to hernandez.

The FO is looking to the future and still trying to keep the window for contending open. Veteran players like Bautista, Smoak, Pearce and Morales were signed to keep the offense strong. Pitching was strengthened with Happ, Estrada, Liarano and a few relievers that were not expensive.

The prospects are strong and deep. 5 OF, 4 IF, 2 C and 10 pitchers. So the future is being looked after.

"But if your best outfield prospects are Teoscar and Alford, rather than Judge, you might need a somewhat different strategy."


That's not the point, though. Hernandez and Alford don't have to be MVP candidates. It's about developing young, cheap, controllable talent. Even if both are average players, that's still surplus value on their current contracts, and anything better than average will put the team in a much better position. If neither one pan out, then that's why you build a certain level of depth to cover for it. If the club feels they are not starting calibre players, then don't start them. I'll trust their judgment on that. However, at some point, there needs to be a turnover on the big league roster where older declining players need be to replaced by younger talent. Not all of them are going to be future stars, and there's nothing wrong with that. As long as some of them are (Vlad and Bo seem like the most likely based on the current minor league crop).

If there was an Ohtani level outfielder available right now, then you don't even consider internal options. Just sign him and deal with the others later. He's 23, will be affordable, and won't mess up any potential future timeline. OTOH, Cain is 32, will want a 4-5 year deal in his declining years, and likely won't be the level of player he has been the past few years for much longer. We have seen first hand how those type of contracts work out, and it doesn't make sense for where the Jays are. They are going to lose a lot of key players after 2018, and having Cain for 3-4 more years after that at big money is going to stand out. A two year deal to Dyson won't.

I said before, there's no guarantee Alford and Hernandez will be viable OF options in the bigs, but the Jays are at a point where they have to take a chance with younger talent, especially in what could be a transitional period between the end of the Donaldson window and the start of the next one. If the Jays can trade for young outfielders, then great. Deal with the depth at that point. They don't have to start Hernandez specifically. Just get younger and better. Getting older and more expensive is not a good option.

I question how healthy and productive Cain would stay on the RC turf in his decline years. Even twenty-something Pillar has talked about trying yoga and learning to fall more softly on the field to better protect his health. Playing center field full-time on artificial turf gets rough when you’re in your mid-30s.

"Sure, but there's really no comparison between Sanchez in 2016 and the two outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford today. Sanchez had always been a better prospect than Teoscar or Alford, and by the beginning of 2016 he had already established himself as an excellent major-league pitcher."


There was a legitimate discussion at the time as to whether Sanchez was a SP or RP long-term. His 2015 performance as a SP was not very good (last couple of starts before his DL stint aside) and I think it's fair to say his 2016 season was not an expected outcome. He earned that rotation spot the right way. He came into camp showing he was ready and the depth was moved to the side for him. If he hadn't panned out, then they would have went with the vets. Either way, it was a better alternative than being stuck with Jordan Zimmermann for $100M because he was seen as a top free agent that year.

Something to consider is that some players have only 1 option left. T Hernandez and D Pompey have to show that they can be regulars IMO.

This could be the last year for Donaldson with the Jays. Martin, Tulo and Travis will have to be adjusted for as their contracts run out. We also don't want to waste any years of Stroman, Osuna and Sanchez being in their prime.

How does signing a vet like Dyson instead of like Cain make more room for youngsters?

crappy vet OF clog up the roster just as much as good vet OF do.

Dyson has a history of being a 2-3 WAR player in limited plate appearances due to his defense and base running. He can start against RHP in any of the OF positions, or be a 4th OF if one of the younger players wins a spot. He's exactly the type of free agent who can provide value without blocking anyone.

If you're paying Cain $17-20M a season over 4-5 years, then he's going to be starting in the OF even if/when he declines. At his age, that's not a very safe free agent signing.

So if I understand you correctly you would rather have a $10m bench player than a $17m starter.

Or to be more specific, you think that spending $17m on one starting OF like Cain somehow blocks the kids more than spending $17m on 2 borderline OF like Pearce and Dyson.

One of the best reasons to sign bigger money starting FAs instead of multiple half-money depth FAs is specifically to open up room for youngsters to win spots. That's why I'm so big on signing top-of-the-roster players instead of depth players - specifically to make more room for the kids to play.

One fairly big money FA OF like Cain, with all of Pillar/Alford/Pompey/Hernandez fighting over the other 3 spots seems like a good model for success to me.

Much better than spending money and roster spots on Dysons/Pearces/Carreras, imo.

I suppose we could trade any of them if Pearce, Dyson or Cain are on the 2018 team.
Pearce is valuable insurance for any injury to Smoak and Morales.

I think we should omit Ohtani from any conversations on signing FAs, since his situation is so unique.  I strongly hope the FO is able to navigate this odd off-season creatively though - someone is going to come out a huge winner with Ohtani and all the newly-available prospects from Atlanta.  That said, 'creativity' is not a strong suit for Atkins and Shapiro.   

Depending on how prevalent this 'no expensive / long-term FAs at any cost' idea is throughout the game, a player like Lorenzo Cain could easily be a bargain- he's number 2 on Dave Cameron's FA bargain list.  I can see the argument for either Dyson or him, but the idea that you can't attempt to rebuild and add expensive contracts at the same time is simply false.  If he can obtained at a fair market price, sign the guy, if his market gets foolish, back off.  If AAA prospects force their way into the OF conversation, move on from the lesser vets - does anyone think that if Alford is ready, or if Pompey comes back strongly from injury, that Steve Pearce or Zeke will block them?  That we can't move Cain at some later date, even if we have to pay some of his salary? 

Actually, given how conservative our FO is, I could see them not wanting to cut bait on a possible sunk cost like Pearce, but should mediocre vets block young talent?  heck no.

I'm sure we once again fish in the shallow end of the FA pool and try to hit wildcard paydirt, but we sure aren't doing it because we have to, in terms of our competitive window, our long term franchise health, or our financial situation.  We are doing it because this is the modus operandi of the FO, for better or worse. 

And speaking of mediocre talents, I was a bit surprised to see Dwight Smith Jr. still on the 40 man, given the complete disinterest the FO seemed to show for him following his surprisingly good call-up.  I guess it's just asset management - if you can squeeze Pentacost through the rule v draft without adding him, he gets an extra year of control.  Smith already used a year, so what's the harm in leaving him on the roster.  That would also explain why the team would choose not to use all 40 spots.

The only other 40 man roster concern I have is Tom Koehler's continued presence.  I'm with Ugly on not filling out the roster with mediocre talent-  I'd rather spend on one Cain contract than having Koehler and Dyson, for example. 

Definite mediocre. Two years ago, there was an argument that this FO went with "mediocre" starters instead of signing one elite starter. Two years later, those two mediocre SP's have combined for an 11.7 WAR, while the elite starter that the Jays "should have" signed was injured and pitching out of the bullpen in year 2 of his 7 year record setting (at the time) contract. It's the same exact argument here. You want to spend big money and term on a player who will most definitely be on the downside of his career in the years he will be under team control. For a team that is one year away from seeing massive turnover on their roster, and currently sit in a "2nd WC or bust" situation with their roster, it makes no sense.

I used Dyson as an example. He's not mediocre. When used properly, he is a good player. He's been about a 2-3 WAR player over the past several seasons in limited PA's every year. In other words, he was a 2-3 WAR player as a 4th OF. The Jays can start him against RHP, or use him off the bench, and he's proven to be value in either scenario. Cain is a better player, but also far more expensive and will come with possibly more than double the term and more than double the AAV. He is far more likely to insist on playing CF and trapping the Jays in that sense, whereas they can improvise with players like Pearce and Dyson. That's just one example. They can go for a one year deal with a player coming off a down season, or a one year deal on an older player who might have a bit left in the tank, etc. Those guys are also easier to move around (or trade) if a prospect busts the door down.

It's not even about blocking prospects necessarily. It's about being smart about which player to target. Martin was a smart target because underlying stats showed he had more value than meets the eye (framing) and he could possibly age a little more gracefully because of that. Plus the Jays had no catching prospects anywhere near the bigs. With Cain it's a different story.

As for "we can always move them at a later date", I think Reyes and Tulo should have taught us a lesson in that narrative (the Jays had to throw in one of their better prospects and take back a worse contract just to move Reyes). The league is full of smarter GM's now than 7 years ago when someone took all of Wells' contract. It's not easy to get out of bad deals.

Are we really going to rehash the “spend lots in free agency” versus the “don’t spend lots in free agency” debate this off-season? No offense intended, but the views of most, if not all, Bauxites on this issue are by now pretty clear. Repetition doesn’t make them any more persuasive or interesting.

The first word in my last post should be "define", not "definite". That's what happens when you don't proof read.

I think given the Jays are post the playoff stretch of Bautista/EE years that free agent spending is going to be minimal and only if a guy fits short term and is cheap or long term to cover a perpetual weakness (nothing comes to mind in that area).

The Jays aren't in dump mode or 'win now' mode but more a 'tread water' and wait for the prospects mode with a shot at a playoff spot if all breaks right. Signing a David Price or other guy who needs 7 years at this point would be stupid.

The budget has to play a part in decisions.

$25 mil is what most have been saying is available.

1) An IF to cover for injuries to Tulo and Travis. Should not cost much. It may be Urena.

2) A lefty for the pen if they want to upgrade on Loup. Maybe 2 years @ $5 mil per year.

That covers possible major weaknesses at an affordable cost.

3) #5 starter. Biagini is cheap. T Koehler is more expensive and could be an injury concern. How much better is Koehler than Biagini? I doubt there is a FA available, 2-3 years @ $15 mil per year. He would be considered reliable. Then you have all the close to ready AAA & AA prospects.

4) Spend big on an OF. We have many in the system but they are unproven. I would just take a risk on someone internal.

I'd be good with Gordon in the IF and a couple arms in the pen. I'd steer clear of any big ticket FA's like JDM. Concentrate on signing JD to an extension.
We will have Sanchez back in rotation (crosses fingers) and a healthy Stroman-Happ-Estrada.
It does boggle the mind to see certain prospects get ignored a la Dwight Smith Jr. Is he going to be an AS? Probably not. Can he be a +WAR player? I think so. I'd rather have a rookie (Alford,Pompey,Smith etc) be given a shot rather than a league avg vet. To me it seems like the Jays FO always prefers to sign AAAA fillers over playing a rookie.

I believe if we want any chance of contendjng this year we don't spend our money on a backup IF, and instead wager on travis and tulo being mostly healthy.

if they are, then spending elsewhwere might give us a chance to be really good, and if they aren't, we're not foing to be good no matter how good that backup IF is.

$190.0 million is comfortably shy of the Luxury Tax margin. That could be the Jays' Budget ceiling. What we spent last year should be the floor. Is this possible? Yes. Will it happened? No.

"1) An IF to cover for injuries to Tulo and Travis. Should not cost much. It may be Urena."

It won't be Urena. He is clearly overmatched in the majors and doesn't have the defense to make up for that. Goins and Gift are better odds to return value and the Jays need to be aiming higher than both of them. It's a very difficult task. Finding a near-starting calibre player who can play SS and 2B yet is OK with not being the actual starter.