Thanks for this bonus thread about top 30 consideration.
Would Carlos Ramirez be considered a prospect or is he too old?
He made a huge rise in 2017 and had that miracle minor league 2017 where he did not let anyone score.

I'm curious who were the six players that had a single vote for the top thirty. My list of prospects who could have sneaked onto the back end of this list would include a fair number of Bluefield players who missed the top thirty: Chavez Young, Ryan Noda, Ryan Gold, Samad Taylor, Mc Gregrory Contreras, and Yorman Rodriguez among the hitters and Maximo Castillo and Randy Pondler on the pitching side.

I also like Roemon Fields and Jonathan Davis as guys with useful tools and fitting the 4th outfielder profile pretty well. I hope they both get some major league time and find some success.

Five catchers on the 40 man roster or a trade before Monday? ( Martin, Maile, Jansen, McGuire & Pentecost) ... and whither Greene, Pannone, Perdomo, Romano and Borucki?

well Borucki is already on the 40. As for 5 catchers, I doubt that Pentecost will be added. Who knows if there will be a surprise or not?

Gabriel, Noda, Gold and Castillo each received a vote.

As we have come to expect, this is terrific coverage of the Jays minor league system.

While we are understandably excited about some of the top guys, I don't think this a noticeably deep system. There's a significant dropoff outside the top five prospects, and I the 20-30 area is pretty weak, especially on upside. All in all, this is a healthy system, but not an elite one, as Gerry notes.

I don't know how this prospect group compares with other clubs.  I can compare it with other groups of Blue Jay prospects.  It is easily the best of the last 15 years in my view.  I'd have to think a lot more carefully to the prospect lists of the 90s.  There were some awfully good farm systems in that decade (unfortunately much of the top talent ended up on other clubs). 

For top-end comparison, I like Guerrero Jr. about as much as Delgado (up until 1994) and Bichette about as much as Shawn Green (after his breakout in 1994) or Alex Gonzalez (after 1993 and 1994).  I guess if you look at Vlad Jr./Bichette/Alford and compare them with Delgado/Gonzalez/Green as of the 1993-94 off-season, it's pretty close.  The farm systems later in the 90s were stronger on pitching, of course, and harder to compare.  I do like the top 20-22 prospects in the organization including Pardinho and Taylor.  It's a little shorter on pitching, but I prefer it that way to short on position players.

SS Hugo Cardona, INF Yhon Perez, C Leonicio Ventura each suspended 72 games.

Cardona was one of the more promising prospects. The DSL plays a short season so these guys will miss most if not all of 2018.

Disappointing news about the PED results - Cardona was a 300K bonus baby with upside.  All three guys on the same team, busted for the same drug.  Perez is only 17.  Ventura, 20 years old in the DSL, was likely feeling some pressure to give his career a boost.  Hard to fault kids coming from developing countries seeking a new life for themselves and their families, but cheating is cheating.  Can't help but think paying minor leaguers more would help, in particular the low pedigree guys who don't have a solid signing bonus. 

Carlos Ramirez is still a rookie, and he's at the back end of my top 30.  Relief-only prospects not making the list is a good sign, IMO, but what Ramirez did this year was staggering. 

I have a hard time arguing this isn't a deep system - to me, it looks like you could argue for a dozen names easily that didn't make the top 30.  But I really can't say I follow other orgs closely enough to say that our 31st-40th guys are better than average.  Gabe, can you point to other orgs with more depth past top 30?

looks like these three got lucky.
Previous offenders were all released
Sept 1 RHP Luis Pena 72 games Stanozolol
Nov 6
SS Yeison Estevez 72 games Boldenone
RHP Adolfo Molina 72 games Boldenone
OF Andres Martinez 72 games Boldenone

all played in DSL this past summer, Pena signed this july

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/minor-league-drug-suspensions-in-2017/c-216112420?tid=185364810

The AFL championship game will be played at 3pm tomorrow. The game is on the MLB network if you can get it.

TJ Zeuch will start the game for Peoria and Jonathan Davis and Lourdes Gurriel are in the starting lineup. No Max Pentecost which is not a surprise as he has not been playing well.

Not that it matters much, but any insight on the number of days given? There's quite a bit of variation...

The suspensions are 72 games each.

I have C.Ramirez in my top 30, as well as T.Guerrieri. I have Danner quite a bit below - in the 40's, and have Adams around 20.

Didn't know about C. Lopes being a free agent now. He had a decent year in AAA at age 24, and I think he can be an OK mlb backup middle infielder, if he just takes another bit of a step forward in AAA in 2018.

I like Gold as well - the Jays' depth in catching prospects is as good as I've ever seen it.

I like Pannone's chances of having a good mlb career - that Smith trade could turn out to be a really good one.

Guerrero is going to be a beast.

"I have a hard time arguing this isn't a deep system - to me, it looks like you could argue for a dozen names easily that didn't make the top 30. But I really can't say I follow other orgs closely enough to say that our 31st-40th guys are better than average."

Nobody has very good prospects in the 31-40 range. The difference between the top systems and the Jays are about depth elsewhere. For example, Minor League Ball just did the Braves system and Austin Riley is listed at #8 and he's an excellent prospect and Maitan is listed at #13 and he has a massive ceiling. The Jays have 3 top prospects and then about 10 guys who are good prospects. So they have really improved the depth of the system in interesting prospects but they need more guys to become A/B+ kind of prospects. The Braves got 10 players with a B+ or better rating, how many will the Jays get? My guess is 3 maybe 4. For example, this list has Pearson and Urena at #6 and #7. The Braves list has Toussaint and Maitlin at #11 and #13. Which is a better pair? Not sure, but it's close. It's an improvement for sure, but there are a ways to go. The Jays are said to be favourites to sign Orelvis Martinez and will get a very good prospect or two in the draft this year with likely no players graduating to the majors until at least half season so the mid-year list should be even better.

Maitan stunk last year. That's why he's 13th. Danner has upside to but he ranks 20th because he stunk too.


Heck, this ranking has Reese McGuire 17th - and this is a kid who has made every top-100 list multiple times, and is coming off of a massive year in AA, while age appropriate for the level.

That is depth, imo.

Maitan has significantly higher upside than Danner, more tools, and while they both disappointed, Danner stunk worse at a lower level at an older age. It’s not particularly helpful to compare the top international signee with a 2nd-round draftee, imho.

The Braves arguably have the best farm system right now, so it is no shame to fall short of them. We still have a good system, but the strength is at the top with Guerrero and Bichette, Alford, Pearson and Jansen. They should all be top-100 prospects. Everyone will have favourites in the 6-20 range, but I think it’s just average. I happen to like McGuire too, and I think he ended up a little lower here than I would place him, but the second group of prospects isn’t that great.

The suspensions are 72 games each.

Let's see.

Amphetanimes: 50 days and 100 days (second offense)
Drug of Abuse: 50 days.
Ritalinic Acid 50 days.
Hydrochlorothiazide 68 days.
Tamixifen 72 days.
Stanozolol 72days, 80 days  and 142 days (second offense)
Boldenone  80 days.
Ostarine 72 days
Nandrolone 56 days
Clomiphene 80 days
Hydrochlorothiazide 75 days
Synthetic testosterone 80 days
Dehydrochlor-methyltestosterone 80 days
Selective Androgen Receptor Modulator LDG-4022 Season
Clomiphene Season
Ipamorelin 80 days
Dimethylbutylamine 50 days
Dehydrochlor-methyltestosterone 76 days.
etc..

There's several "undisclosed" all for 25 days.

Gabriel I disagree - the secondary layer of prospects is full of high round picks with good track records. much better group than you're portraying imo.

"Maitan has significantly higher upside than Danner,"

Of course he does. Maitan was the #71 prospect for BA at mid-season despite having a bad season. If he becomes a free agent which he might, he will still get a huge bonus from some team. He is not the prospect he was a year ago though obviously. There is an inherent statistical bias in internet conversations because we only have access the statistical side.

If you look last year, for example on this site, you see these sorts of comments a lot.

"I cant see a single argument for ranking bellinger higher than tellez. Aside from the red sox/dodgers bias referenced above."

and

"These (Devers and Espinosa) are the kinds of prospects that sneak into the backend of top 100 lists, imo, and in other organizations imo wouldn't be getting a sniff of top 50 consideration, let alone top 20."

Because we don't scout players and don't have access to scouting reports, we emphasize comparing numbers which is an extremely limited way of looking at prospects. We talk about the cases where scouts miss, and they do, but they hit a lot more than just looking at statistical comparisons would. Some prospects can't hit major league fastballs or breaking balls or don't have stuff that would ever fool major leaguers. At this point saying Devers was barely a top-100 prospect or Tellez was as good a prospect as Bellinger seems crazy but those assertions made sense based on purely reading statistics. The issue is that the numbers don't say near everything.

ugly, I'm happy to disagree - and I hope I'm wrong. I don't want to overstate the matter - I don't think our prospect depth is bad, only that it's roughly average. I quite like a number of our depth guys, including Pannone, McGuire and Greene.

4 Jays prospects are all acquitting themselves well in AFL Championship game. Zeuch started and went 5 2/3 innings, under his pitch count of 75. He gave up several hits but most were of the bloop variety. He exhibited excellent control and was fully in charge after a 2 run 1st inning. Andrew Case retired all 4 batters he faced. Gurriel hit a double off the wall and and flied out one foot from the fence. He also walked. Jonathan Davis was on base 3 times, including a triple, and scored 3. He has surprising power for a guy who is 5'8" tall.

"Nobody has very good prospects in the 31-40 range."

But is this true?  There is an increased emphasis on controllable young talent in the game - guys like Samad Taylor, Maximo Castillo, Chavez Young, Ryan Noda, Yennsy Diaz, Ryan Gold and Dom Abaddessa all look like prospects to me - albeit, longshots.  Guys like Carlos Ramirez, Tim Mayza and Roemon Fields all look like they could contribute to a big league roster next season - just off the top of my head. 

Obviously, we all spend a lot of time parsing Jays' prospects in that range, and while I'm likely familiar with many of the names in the top ten of most orgs, I'm certainly not aware of guys in the 31-40 range for other teams. 

Granted, if you define depth to mean beyond the top ten, that's a different conversation - although I do tend to agree with Ugly that many of our 11-20th ranked guys constitute quality depth in that sense.  But I also feel that our list of guys with a 'path' to the bigs runs past 40 names.  Than again, I may just be blind to the equivalent depth in other orgs. 

Dan Gordon, Lopes was drafted in 2011 which I believe made him the minor league FA - Fangraphs KOTOH projection system has him as the top minor league FA hitter this year.  I assume he will move on looking for an org willing to give him a shot - but clearly you aren't alone in thinking he might be a decent bench guyl.

I agree with your view on the prospect depth Jerjapan and you could have easily added McGregory Contreras, Sterling Guzman and Randy Pondler(maybe) to your list. I think Contreras will make a significant improvement in 2018 as did Edward Olivares this past season.

Contreras and Pondler were on my radar too PeterG, but I worry about Pondler's K rate for such a low level starter.  Jay Blue reported his velocity in the high 80s in his prospect guide this year.   That 0.99 WHIP is certainly nice though.  Guzman I have slept on - what's do you like about him?  I looked him up in the prospect guide (can I plug buying this guide again?  It's been a great help as I follow the minors this year) and Blue notes several promising signs. 

Guzman is under the radar I guess because he was injured early in the season but was playing well prior to that. In the only 15 games he played, he hit .304 with an on base of .429 while playing good defense at 2b.

All I know for sure is that Prospect ranking are somewhat subjective to whoever is doing the list. Most sites do a 1-30 list as a reasonably easy task, while few do a little more. With the talented people on this site, why don't they do a 1-50 list?

Thanks to everybody for the great work in compiling the prospect list. At least it gives us something to talk about as the offseason grinds along.

Slow start to the offseason across the board. It is mid-November and no big moves by anyone yet. Biggest moves afaik are... Beltran retiring, AA now the GM of Atlanta, Nationals hire Dave Martinez as manager (glad to see him finally get a shot), John Hart leaves Atlanta, Ohtani to be posted but might not due to dispute between owners and MLBPA. Not much else beyond rumors right now.

Some Jays’ news is expected over the next day or so. Finializing the 40-Man Roster is required by Monday.

According to Rosenthal, the deadline to set up the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 is tomorrow at 8 pm. I'd be surprised if we didn't see a small trade some time before then.

The Ohtani situation is also supposed to be sorted out by tomorrow night (whether he will be posted or not), so the off-season should start to pick up after that.

Chris Rowley and Harold Ramirez have been outrighted.

Interesting to see Rowley and Ramirez outrighted. I think this makes it more likely that a larger number of additions to the 40-man are made tonight.

That's possible. Team may also want to keep open spot for waiver claim or FA signing.

Refsnyder is still on 40. I assume he will be DFA as soon as another IF is added.

Refsnyder claimed by Cleveland.

Maybe Rowley will remain in org on minor league deal?

Jays acquire Gift Ngoepe from Pirates for PTBNL or cash considerations. He is a 27 year old infielder.

The Jays must see something in this guy, hard to tell what. He's cheaper than Goins, so does Ryan get traded/etc.?

Rowley cleared waivers and this is his first outright so he's still in the org whether he wants to be or not...

Gift has remaining option years so it would seem that Goins may be extra IF on 25 man roster with GIft waiting in the wings at Buffalo.

I wonder if the Jays are planning to add only 5 names to the 40-man roster tonight, so that they will have room to add a player during the Rule 5 draft. They will pick fairly early in the draft this year. They might have their eye on someone.

If they protect 5 of their eligible prospects, that might be enough to protect the key prospects. The Jays might calculate that a couple of the exposed prospects (Pentecost, Tellez??) are highly unlikely to be picked by anyone.

I am not that excited about Gift. I think he could be designated if the Jays sign a free agent.

Is this Article http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/mlb-gms-search-baseballs-next-super-utility-star/ about Gift, or what the Jays thing he is?

It's like a younger, cheaper version of Goins. Not great, but better than Refsnyder.
He could get dropped easily after the Rule V draft.

I don't think the Jays have the room to hide a bullpen arm this year. They need a dependable lefty.
The only spot where they could gamble is back up  infield and I'd much prefer they get an establish player.

Nobody's picking Ramirez and I would have dropped Refsnyder too. So far, so good.

Jays add Jansen, McGuire, Greene, Pannone, Tellez

The most notable names unprotected are probably Pentecost, Romano and Perdomo, although none are surprising.

Given where Pentecost's bat is at and his inability to stay healthy, I really can't see a major league team having a spot for him all year. Perdomo struggled this year, while I expect Romano isn't advanced to really warrant a flier as a lower-upside arm.

Pentecost is the interesting one to me.  We'll see if he is taken.

I wouldn't have kept sending him back behind the plate given his health issues.  I think that he had enough other ability to make it elsewhere, although the payoff would not be as large.

Expose the 2 soon to be 25yr olds that haven't made it past single A yet.

smart, and obvious in retrospect.

do they still have room to add Rios?

I just can't imagine ANY scenario where Pentecost stays on a major league roster for the entire 2018 season. (as would be required if he was chosen in the Rule V). In the past four years, he's played a grand total of 40 games in the field (30 at C, 10 at 1B). I'm sure there are teams that are intrigued by his upside that might find a spot on the 40 man roster for him... but not on the 25 man roster. Just seems inconceivable.

There is one spot open but Rios can't be added now. I can't imagine why they would wish to in any case.

They will probably need at least 1 or 2 spots for free agents or trades.

There will be people leaving the 40-Man, whether it be Trades or Non-tenders or DFAs, perhaps as many as five or more. All will happen as needs to the Team arises. Decisions are still needed as who should stay. Aaron Loup lasts only until the Jays acquire a better LHP. Steve Pearce, Ezequiel Carrera and Kevin Pillar are only here until the Jays acquire better. The early word was expect big changes, whether that still applies?

If Gift Ngoepe is essentially Ryan Goins from 3 years ago with options that can be a valuable piece given the health concerns of Tulo and Travis. I'd rather carry the in case of injury defensive whiz in AAA than on the bench getting no ABs if everybody is healthy.

I don't think the Jays brass exposed Pentecost over McGuire or Tellez because they think he's less likely to be selected but because they think he's the lesser prospect in their eyes. The bar is extremely low offensively for a back-up catcher and if he gets injured thats just even more likely he makes it though a year on big-league roster.

To put things in perspective steamer has Pentecost at a horrible projection of 57 wrc+ next year, but at least 8 catchers with min 150 PA had a 60 wrc+ or worse last year. Is it likely Pentecost gets selected? Probably not, but possible yes.

"I just can't imagine ANY scenario where Pentecost stays on a major league roster for the entire 2018 season. (as would be required if he was chosen in the Rule V)."

Same here. The reason why pitchers get chosen a lot is that it's easy to hide middle relievers all year. You have a lot of low leverage spots where they can be used. Any team taking Pentecost would need to carry three catchers and basically sit him on the bench full-time except for an occasional pinch-hitting appearance. Then, after this season, you'd have to send him back down to AA at age 26 to continue his development? It just doesn't make any sense.

Is Pentecost the best catcher left unprotected? Would it make sense to have 5 catchers on the 40 roster?

Some of the pressure is on the vets like Goins, Loup and the outfield.
There's an argument to let the rookies play full time at AAA rather than be the 4th outfielders in Toronto, but that argument weakens when you have 3 outfielders in Buffalo that you can rotate into the 4th outfield role.
There's still 7 outfielders on the roster, Pearce, Pillar, Carrera, Hernandez, Alford, Pompey and Smith.

Pentecost is reportedly a good defensive catcher.  A club with a good young catcher who can go 140 games or so could certainly carry Pentecost as a second catcher, as long as the club had another catcher in triple A ready to take the majority of the work in the event of an injury to the #1.  We'll see if anyone bites.

Pentecost is definitely an athletic catcher, but I'm not sure he's actually a "good defensive" catcher.

I have to say I'm happy with our FO on these moves - people rag on me for worrying too much about prospect age (i.e. a 24yr old in single A really ain't a prospect unless he's absolutely demolishing it and even then probably not) but I feel at least a little confirmation from the FO on this now.

I mean it's one thing to be old for your levels like, say, Pillar was....but even Pillar had already hit the majors at 24.

If Pentecost is going to make it, in my view, it will be as a late Josh Donaldson-style conversion to first base.  I have no idea if he can stay healthy, but I think that the odds of it are much higher if he catches no more than once a week next year and then moves on to another position.  The best-case scenario is for him to move next year in the Blue Jay organization. 

He hasn't hit consistently in the minor leagues, but I think that is mostly a function of being hurt while attempting to stay as a catcher. 

Generally we have a good knowledge of Blue Jays prospects but a limited understanding of the other 29 teams. Jordan Romano might be a bullpen option for some teams but those teams will be comparing Romano to unprotected players from other teams. We think Romano is a risk to be lost, but lets say the Padres might have Romano ranked as their fifth option after pitchers from other teams.

Every year there is a lot of trepidation over the rule 5 draft and usually its much ado about nothing.

The Braves have a deep system and there has been lots of chatter about the Braves losing players. Similarly the Yankees were trading players yesterday who they thought they would lose in the draft. Those trades would use up roster space for other teams to pick. There are probably other players and teams with strong prospects unprotected. I am not going to worry until something happens.

And if something happens the player gets returned around 75% of the time. Serenity now!

Definitely, Gerry.  The odds against Max Pentecost or Jordan Romano being the next Roberto Clemente, George Bell, Johan Santana, or Mike Napoli are very long. 

Might the Jays be in the market for any of the Braves expected to be lost players or will they hold on to all of remaining pool money in hopes of attracting Ohtani? I guess this will be a decision many teams will need to make. Perhaps the lost Braves will remain in limbo until Ohtani is signed should that be allowed to happen this off season.

"Pentecost is reportedly a good defensive catcher. A club with a good young catcher who can go 140 games or so could certainly carry Pentecost as a second catcher, as long as the club had another catcher in triple A ready to take the majority of the work in the event of an injury to the #1. We'll see if anyone bites."

He's had fewer than 200 innings at catcher in his professional career. I'll be shocked if anyone would count on him being able to be a #2 catcher. The real issue is that he had a 124 WRC+ at A ball as a 24 YO last year. This is not a player who is so stupendous that it'd be worth the risk. This is an oft-injured prospect who is way below the level he should be at. He also has almost no experience game-calling and rebuilding teams often like veteran catchers to try to build their young pitchers for this reason. Maybe someone will take a chance to get a look at him during spring, but I will be very surprised if he even gets taken. Also, the Jays already kept Maille, Jansen, Martin, McGuire on the 40 man.

I really do think that we should be much more willing to disqualify prospects based purely on age/level. Being good but far from great at age 24 in A+ really should be considered an instant disqualifier to prospect status, imo.


This also comes back around to a guy like Rowdy. We can argue that he may not have been taken, but for me, if I'm an opposing GM of a bottom feeder team, I can't imagine there being many more interesting Rule 5 gambles than a kid with light tower power who just crushed AA at age 21 the year before. I mean when looking at Rule 5, that's exactly the kind of guy I'd be looking at, and hoping that his one single bad year was just a fluke.

There are many late bloomers in baseball. It is a sport where age matters less than in others. Of course, it's an important factor, but disqualifying guys that early? This seems harsh and somewhat foolish to me.

The Braves will lose 12 prospects plus other penalties. Should Jays pursue with remaining pool money or wait for an unlikely shot at Ohtani, assuming that Ohtani will be available now?

Boy that makes AA's job tough in Atlanta. Losing 12 prospects over stupidity by the previous GM puts him in a tough spot. Smart of Atlanta to get a guy known for creativity as they will really need it now.

As to should the Jays chase these players? The answer is 'of course'. Ohtani is a lottery ticket win if you get him and odds are having a few hundred thousand extra to spend won't change a thing. Best to use that money to build up the farm imo.

Agreed John. Teams that are waiting on Ohtani may refrain from pursuing the new FA's for now, thus improving the chances of those teams who will actively pursue them. We should know soon whether Ohtani can be posted this off season.

have the Jays not spent almost all of the pool money for this year? The Yankees may clean up nicely unless they spend it on Ohtani.

I believe the Jays have close to 1 mil left but I don't know the exact number. Perhaps someone does.

Shohei Ohtani is not interested in how much he makes now. Later contracts will be for the big bucks. He wants to pitch and hit in the Majors, against the best competition. I would not be surprised that he's already made a decision on where he goes. The Teams scrambling for more Int'l signing dollars are unsure, despite knowing his "demands".

Teams wishing to sign new int'l FA's from Braves may use current period pool money or next period but cannot combine both.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/mlb-announces-permanent-lifetime-ban-for-john-coppolella-braves-gm-rumors.html

Wow!

Blue Jays suspensions:


RHP Juan Jimenez (72 G)
LHP Naswell Paulino (72 G)
RHP Jol Concepcion (60 G)

This is a significant blow and perhaps firings will be in order for some of those in charge with the DSL team.

Looks like the DSL team is a mess - needs someone to take charge - hope some firings are coming.

Is that 6 or 8 suspensions now from the DSL team? Very troubling, but it's the kind of thing that may be difficult to determine blame within the coaching staff - obviously, if it was encouraged by coaching or training staff, they need to be fired, but it would be very difficult to determine if someone turned a blind eye to it or merely wasn't diligent about preventing/warning players against using PEDs. We might see a reorganization, but I doubt heads will roll - I gather success in the Dominican comes out of relationships, so it's unlikely the Jays will want to offend people in their current network on the basis of suspicion.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/person-interest-new-blue-jays-infielder-gift-ngoepe/

Apparently there is disagreement on his defense.

Going back to the Rule 5 draft issues: I wonder if the Jays will lose Andrew Case. He'll be 25 next season, but he did have excellent numbers as a reliever in AA last season. He also had very good stats in 10 innings in the Arizona fall league this month. He seems like the kind of pitcher who could be stashed as a middle reliever for a season, if he's picked in the draft.

I doubt that Case will be lost but don't dismiss the possibility. I think it is likely a stronger possibility than any of the others left unprotected. The Jays have plenty of young relievers on the major league club and promising ones in the system, not to mention starters who may one day become relievers. This would be a loss that could be easily covered.

Ohtani will officially be playing somewhere in the big leagues in 2018. He's likely the reason for the slow off-season so far, so getting him posted and signed in the next few weeks should create a domino effect.

The Jays have two outfield spots open and I'm sure would have no issues with moving Morales to open the DH spot if that was a deal breaker. The FO could easily promise him reps in the outfield, a full time spot at DH, and a rotation spot. Then again, so could every other team (though the NL teams can't promise him the DH spot obviously). Still a hugely unlikely signing, but it won't be about money, so who knows what his preference will be. Just have to make your pitch and the rest is out of your hands.

Ohtani is the reason the Pitching Market is grindingly slow. Stanton is why the Hitting Market is asleep.

Looking at the Atlanta free agent prospects there are certainly some good ones, but it doesn't seem like those players will be going to the Jays. I don't think we have the money left in our pool and likely have a lot committed to next year with the top guy lined up.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-braves-punishment-is-in-and-its-harsh/

There was a report earlier in the day that as these players from Braves were keeping their initial bonus money, they could be signed for 300K, recognizing that many teams had used much of pool money. I cannot substantiate this, but I did hear it somewhere perhaps on MLB network. Jays will have a shot if any are to their liking. Much of it how it plays out will be related to connections rather than money imo.

TJ Zeuch should have been in higher on this list IMO. I think he has a shot at being a top of the rotation guy.

Such an exciting list.

Great work guys!

I believe the Jays were almost out of IFA pool money.
I think we had about $50K left. That pretty much rules out signing any of the Braves castoffs (and prob Ohtani). I could be wrong but I read that teams could dip into the 2018 IFA budget to sign some of the Braves prospects. The Jays are lined up to sign the top prospect next July (Orelvis Martinez) so there's probably not much room.

The Jays have slightly more than 1 mil in remaining pool money. THis from an article by Shi Davidi on September 13:

"The Blue Jays are better off in that regard but are still largely tapped out of their $4.75 million bonus pool after spending big on July 2 international free agents, headlined by the $1.4 million given to right-hander Eric Pardinho. They did acquire some pool room from the St. Louis Cardinals in a trade for minor-leaguer Lane Thomas back in July, but have only slightly more than $1 million to work with right now."

In addition each team is being allowed an extra 200k. A showcase is being held for these players at the end of December. In an order to get new bonus money, players must sign by Jan. 15.

Blue Jays pool money $ 4.75m
Lane Thomas trade $ ??

reported bonus money paidout $ 4.83m

Pardinho $ 1.4m
L Jimenez $ 825k
Melean $ 775k
Hiraldo $ 750k
Rodriguez $ 500k
Rivas $ 280k
Govea $ 200k
G Jimenez $ 100k

plus a list of 18 players with no reported bonus

So you are saying that Shi's information is incorrect. Certainly, it would seem so. Wonder how he came to that number?

can you list the other 18 Mendochino.

BA only shows 16 total signed by Jays. It seems that you can't believe anything in print these days. I think that you are the one who is correct while the other sources are not.

I do not know the amount of pool money the Jays got in return for Lane Thomas so I don't know what the Jays have left.

Some more bonus info

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/239882086/blue-jays-agree-with-2-top-intl-prospects/?topicid=151437456

Williams Moreno, RHP, Venezuela, $20,000
Jose Ferrer, C, Venezuela, $10,000
Miguel Olivo, RHP, Venezuela, $10,000
Erick Teran, LHP, Venezuela, $10,000
Alexis Carmona, RHP, Venezuela, $10,000
Luis Pena, RHP, Dominican Republic, $10,000
Jhon Solarte, CF, Venezuela, $10,000

I thought contracts under $100k don't count towards the cap.

my full list compiled from Baseball America, MLB.com, Blue Jays transactions at official site.

RHP
Juan Acosta
Eliezer Bello
Junior Guzman
Jose Brito
William Gonzalez
Eric Pardinho
Williams Moreno
Alejandro Melean
Ronald Govea
Luis Pena
Miguel Olivo
Alexis Carmona

LHP
Christian Reyes
Jhoan Dominguez
Nelfi Santos
Erick Teran

C
Gustavo Ruiz
Geyer Jimenez
Jose Ferrer

IF
Leonardo Jiminez
Miguel Hiraldo
Rainer Diaz
Jose Rivas

OF
Jhon Solarte
Alberto Rodriguez
Erickvi Celedonio

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/239741580/teams-set-to-sign-international-prospects/?topicid=151437456

"A club can trade away as much of its international pool money as it would like, but a team can only acquire up to 75 percent of its initially allotted pool. That means the most any team can possibly spend is $10,062,500. It's also worth noting that signings of $10,000 or less do not count against a team's bonus pool."

my count of 4.83m was from my first post only but looks like Williams Moreno's $ 20 k should be added also bringing total to $ 4.85m

also RHP Luis Pena was released after being suspended

Here is a more light hearted Shapiro interview with some directional insights towards the end:

https://bluejaysnation.com/2017/11/22/jays-droppings-life-learning-and-baseball-an-interview-with-mark-shapiro/

Market is extremely slow right now as it seems everyone is waiting on Ohtani and Stanton decisions. The free agent class isn't very good this year anyway. Next year's crop is ridiculous right now (some might extend before hitting free agency but I doubt Harper or Machado will).

I think most teams have a list of players they want but most of those players are asking for too much.
It could be a slow winter.

So besides bidding on one of the Atlanta prospects or saving the money for an improbable deal with Ohtani, the Jays could simply trade away their remaining pool money. Baltimore has been doing a lot of that recently.

Trading pool money is a very short term thinking thing that I really hope the Jays don't do. The Jays need to add more young talent, not write it off so they can have another utility infielder. I suspect if you check who is trading cap space away and who is acquiring it you'll see quickly which are strong organizations on one side and weak ones on the other.

Dave Cameron had his top 5 free agent bargains a couple of days ago.  He hasn't sold me on Fister or Hunter, and Carlos Santana isn't a good fit in Toronto.  But I agree that Dyson for 2 years at $8 million per would be good value, and a worthwhile addition.  Cain is interesting, but not necessarily the best fit for the club.  The nice thing about Dyson is that he is a good match for Alford, Pillar, Hernandez.  You can work in the young guys, give Pillar some rest from time to time and give Dyson 300-350 PAs against RHP exclusively, and some pinch-running work.  Of course, the club might see Carrera as filling the same role, but he's a much lesser player defensively and has significantly less value. 

Cameron thinks that Nunez is worth $8-$9 million for 2 years.  I am not excited about him at all. 

For me, Cain is an even better fit than Fowler would have been.

but we're not signing him so whatever.

I had another look at Cain.  His range appears to be holding up pretty well so far (the reduced UZR/DRS number last year seems to be in good part related to his arm).  I do think that he'd get a power boost at the RC, and probably hit a little better overall.  At 4 years for $17 million per, I'd be tempted sign him as a left-fielder (if he's willing) and let Alford and Hernandez duke it out for the right-field job in the spring. 

The one thing that I do not want to see is a Carrera/Pearce platoon in left-field.  It didn't work last year, and it would probably be worse this year. 

Dyson would be a good signing, IMO. He can be a passable starting OF when platooned due to his great defense and base running, and can easily slide over to a 4th OF role if a young player is ready to take over. In a painfully weak FA class, if you can get a 2 win player on a short term deal + reasonable AAV, it’s a pretty good scenario.

The only way adding Cain makes sense is if they get Ohtani somehow. Cain by himself doesn’t move the needle much. We are looking at going for a 2nd WC spot as is. Ohtani + Cain potentially puts the team into the top 4 conversation with Houston, NY, Cleveland, and Boston. That won’t happen with Cain alone, barring a bunch of luck and overachieving.

This is Ross Atkins' first full year as a G.M. in this market, so consider him still almost a raw Rookie. Does he understand the inherent difference in marketplaces that exist in Toronto? I would be very surprised if he did.

According to Atkins, the Outfield is likely to be Teoscar Hernandez in RF, Kevin Pillar in CF with Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera sharing duties in LF. To get a better balance in hitting, either Dalton Pompey or Dwight Smith Jr. need to make the Roster, but most probably won't. As good as Anthony Alford is, he's just another righty. If Atkins is unable to get his dream "middle infielder" and need to use multiple people to do it, he might need to replace one or more of Carrera or Pearce as well as Goins.

According to Atkins, it seems Joe Biagini is the 5th Starter or some one else is acquired. He might possibly in the Bullpen, while the "impact arm" fills the position he doesn't. Lefty Ryan Borucki is the most likely alternative to Biagini that presently exists in the system, but it's hard to determine who's the most ready.

All I can say is, "according to Atkins' idea of making the Jays better", the Jays may very well miss the postseason again. Considering how much money is available. Consider how much the Jays need to improve. Consider the reluctance to trade basically anyone. Are they the right people to be running the Jays? I don't think so, but I'm willing to be surprised.

I'm sure he has an idea by this point that Toronto is a tougher market to get Free Agents to than most. Cleveland had a cash shortage and many don't want to go there for an assortment of reasons (small market, limited competition window, etc).

If the Jays miss the playoffs in 2018 and 2019 but are serious contenders for 2020-2025 I'll be very happy.

Thanks John. I'd prefer continuous Postseason play.

The only way you will get continuous post season play is to build your system so it is a constant feeder. You have to develop it. You can't buy it. That has been proven over and over again. The Yankees have figured it out. The Red Sox will soon learn. The FO is on the right path even if some mistakes are made and some fans are impatient. I think it is right for TO or anywhere and I support the FO even though I think they will be making a big mistake if JD is not traded in the off season. There will need to be a more extensive redo in 2019 if JD, Estrada, Happ all walk at the same time.

Hopefully 1 or 2 young pitchers graduate. There's a lot invested in these guys. Eventually they'll have to let the prospects fight over the 4th and 5th spots and trade up mid-season as required.

I'd like to see a Stroman extension. For Sanchez, let's just see some durability. Estrada can probably be extended again if he still produces.

The Jays have upside in the outfield and behind the plate. If Donaldson is extended, they will need to move Guerrero back to left field.  Pillar should probably be traded while he still has some value.

Trading pool money is a very short term thinking thing that I really hope the Jays don't do.

I"m talking about whatever money is left from this year's pool. Doesn't that just disappear if unused?

The Dodgers have released Jose Miguel Fernandez who might be the type of super utility guy the Jays are looking for.

Jose Miguel (29 years old, less than a year of minor league experience, no MLB experience, never played SS) Fernandez might not be who they are looking for.

If he can be had on a minor league contract then why not? Jose Miguel Fernandez was in Cuba for years and last year in AA/AAA hit 306/367/496 while mainly at 2B but also time at DH, 3B, 1B, and LF. In Cuba he was almost exclusively at 2B. Potentially a good backup for when Travis goes down again.

Nobody would give Fernandez more than a minor league contract. He signed with the Dodgers for just 200K.
The defense is rusty, but he can hit and runs well.

Shi Davidi reports that Max Pentecost has had a recurrence of shoulder soreness.

"Pentecost was behind the plate eight times in 21 days from Oct. 11-31 with the Peoria Javelinas in the AFL, his busiest stretch at catcher since his injury troubles began three years ago. He caught once more, Nov. 7, before missing the final eight games of the AFL schedule."

Ah well. Pentecost was a good lottery ticket that looks like it won't pan out. If his shoulder wasn't such a pain he'd could've been a star. I'd rather the Jays take risks like that than play it safe and take a guy who might be safer on the surface but without as high an upside. Pentecost might still work out as a 1B/DH (ala Delgado) but I wouldn't bet on it.

The next pick was Kodi Medeiros a LHP who has a 5.19 ERA in the minors lifetime 4.98 last year and walks over 4 per 9 IP. Ick. Trea Turner was next (6.6 WAR so far) a SS/CF for Washington. Crap. Now he would've been nice.

I wasn't a fan of the Pentecost pick - I wanted Touki Toussaint or Trea Turner (since I had already soured on Reyes)

I liked Pentecost, Conforto and Trea Turner (and preferred all of them to Jeff Hoffman).  I have no idea how that will all turn out. 

It is a fact that pitchers and catchers get injured more than other players, yet you can't live without them.

At some stage the Jays will have to decide if a position switch is called for.

Baring Trades, 1B with the Jays is Rowdy Tellez's job to lose. That being said, was last year Smoak's breakout year or his career year? Steve Pearce is a part-time option there, but should never get full time anywhere. Max Pentecost is still so far away no matter what position he plays. There is a reason Kendrys Morales stays.

2018 is Smoak at 1B unless someone gives the Jays a dumb trade (ie: they offer way too much). No question 2017 will be his career year. Of course, we all felt that way after Bautista's 2010 but he outdid it in 2011. Then never again reached that peak with only 1 year within a win of it (2014), another 2 wins shy (2015), another 3 shy (2013). For the 7 years after 2010 he had a net WAR of 26.1 for $96 mil. For just the 5 after 26.9 for $64 mil (those last 2 years were disasters -0.7 WAR total for $32 mil - why signing guys at 35 is a bad idea).

Smoak is cheap $4.125 mil next year, $6-8 mil in 2019 (depending on playing time, I suspect he'll be at $8 mil). However, this was by far his best season, 40 OPS+ points above last year and 33 over his lifetime total pre-2017. If he was 25 I'd be a believer but at 30, nah, that is called a career year and he might be like Bautista and have a few more like it or he might be like 99% of players and not ever again come close. Tellez gets 2018 to recover from his terrible 2017 with no pressure knowing Smoak is at 1B unless, like I said, some GM gets drunk and offers the Jays a great young player or 2 for him. FanGraphs puts his value last year at $27.2 million suggesting that any trade would need to bring the Jays at least $40 million in excess value to feel safe doing it. I really don't see anyone trading a star prospect for Smoak.

Pearce is the immediate backup at 1B, with Morales also there (one as DH the other at 1B). Tellez will have a shot in 2019 or in September of 2018 if he shows he can hit in AAA. I suspect the Jays now are hoping he recovers and then in 2019 keeps pounding well enough to force the Jays hand and clear out one of Smoak/Morales at that point. However, to say anything but the AAA starting 1B job is Tellez's to lose at the moment seems silly to me.

Anthony Alford is off to a torrid start in the Mexican league. In his first b4 games he is leading off and hitting .471 while stealing 2 bases.

If he can keep this up (or close to), it becomes immediately significant as Atkins recently suggested that acquiring another OF is not the highest priority so there may be opening for internal options.

Atkins said this past week that an all purpose INF (who might be able to take a turn in the OF) and a starting pitcher are the biggest needs.

The big question is bang for the buck vs what we already have. Alford, Pearce, Carrera, Teoscar Hernandez, Dwight Smith Jr, and others should be able to produce at least 'meh' production in LF/RF (above 0 WAR) while the IF if/when Travis & Tulo are down for injuries is far below 0 WAR (Goins can't hit and his fielding has dropped from fantastic to decent, Barney is a free agent and not that good anyways, Lourdes Gourriel isn't ready, Gift Ngoepe hasn't shown any real value yet in the majors or minors really). The rotation #5 is wide open and the minors don't have anyone ready to step in yet so a big risk of far below 0 WAR there. Biagini might be decent but I sure wouldn't bet on it.

So yeah, pitching and middle infield are the biggest potential nightmares in 2018. LF/RF should be endurable in a worst case (no change) situation.

Only the Middle Infielder need is not affected by Ohtani, Darvish, Arrieta, Stanton, Martinez sweepstakes. The Jays could fill this position without worrying about anything else. They could wait out the Market on everything else.

The middle infield is definitely a higher priority than the outfield. At least there is some upside with the internal OF candidates (Alford and Hernandez in particular). The infield is a mess. The starting 2B/SS both have massive health issues, and the SS is getting at an age where we don't really know what he will do when he is healthy anymore. The back-up IF will be critical, otherwise it will be a ton of Goins and Gift plate appearances, which is not going to end very well. At least the FO is aware not to trust Travis and Tulo staying healthy all year, as they've said publicly a few times already, so who they get to fill that utility role will be important.

We have 2 IFs that are close to the majors. Urena and Gurriel by 2019 I hope.
So for 2018 we discuss Tulo/Travis/Goins a lot I suppose. I mean, I don't want to hear from us and the FO about the Tulo/Travis health concerns until the 2020 season is over. Maybe they will have good health.

Pannone and  Borucki should be ready by June and could surprise in spring training.
Guerrieri is 25 and will be on his last option  year. He could be given priority if healthy.

A young outfield could provide only "meh" offense, but the defense would be fantastic.

Travis is the lead off hitter, so anyone replacing him would need to have great on base numbers.

Pearce is redundant because he can only play 1B, DH and LF (with poor defense) since the 2 switch hitters are better against lefties and Morales can handle first well enough.

Getting a middle infielder who can handle shortstop would also make Goins redundant and either that middle infielder or Travis would need to get some innings in left field.

The pitching is straightforward, it's the infield that's the real puzzle.

Last years 25 man roster had 4 IFs Tulo, Travis, Goins and Barney. Do we have to have 4 or 3 plus Gift in AAA is ok? I exclude Urena & Gurreil from down the street Buffalo as I believe they will start in AA. I don't really see why they cannot be called up for an emergency.

There should be other AAA & AA IFs also.

If tulo and travis are injured most of the year we won't be contending no matter how good a backup IF we sign.

Getting a good utility infielder will allow the team to be a little more flexible with playing time. Maybe they can rest Tulo and Travis two games a week each depending on how they are feeling, allowing the utility player to play a ton, with Goins filling in here and there. More rest throughout the season might keep both of them healthier and productive in theory. They did not have the luxury to do that with Goins and Barney as the main back-ups last season, but actually have a starting calibre utility player will certainly make it easier to rest Travis/Tulo more often without fear of a drop-off. Sure if both Travis and Tulo are out most of the year then it will be tough to fill those holes regardless, but it's the one area in the organization that is really barren in terms of depth. Even the SP depth is better than the IF depth in the upper minors.

The issue with that plan obviously is finding a utility player that can play multiple positions, is actually good, and is OK with a bench role. It won't be easy. Nunez is a free agent, so he would make sense if he is OK with a backup role. Josh Harrison could be a good, albeit expensive, option if the Pirates want to move him. He would actually be one of my first choices since his salary might make him easier (cheaper) to acquire. Then there are young players who are stuck in organizations that already have those positions filled so they might be available.

There are options but it is not going to be an easy position to fill.

Tulo and Travis have been 3 WAR players at most lately. So, a 2 WAR backup keeps the team competitive if one goes down.
If both go down, than maybe the team is in a better shape to trade to fill the void this time.

If tulo and travis are injured most of the year we won't be contending no matter how good a backup IF we sign.

Imagine that the club signs Zack Cozart.  Tulo plays half a season and performs at his average over the last 3 years (1 WAR) and Travis does the same (2 WAR).  Cozart plays most of a full season and performs at his average (3 WAR).  The club may or may not be in contention in that scenario, but it won't have anything to do with the middle infield.  I'm not specifically suggesting that the club sign Cozart, but rather that putting significant resources into a "backup middle infielder" is a rational use.  We know that a player who can play shortstop, second base and third base is likely to get at least 500 PAs on this club. "Backup middle infielder" isn't really an adequate description.

the only reason that seems to make some sense is because of crap like morales on the roster. we should have had that 3 extra wins by having EE for less than $9m more than Morales. But now, since the roster is clogged up with bad depth, we now set our sights on a backup IF somehow helping this team get back into the playoffs.

Edwin will be turning 35 in January, and was a 2.5 WAR player last year as a DH.  He's had a gentle decline so far, and even if it continues at that pace (which I think it will), the loss there is not huge- particularly if Atkins/Gibbons make sure that Morales' talents are better leveraged into a part-time role. 

Don't get me wrong.  The front office did not do well in the off-season last year, but there's no point in rehashing all of that, nor in singing their praises for the signings of Happ and Estrada the year before. 

EE has been worth ~3 more wins than Morales pretty much every year.

it's not about rehashing, it's about examining the downsides of spending free agent dollars on borderline players instead of top players.

in reality, all the focus of the offseason for position players should be adding the biggest bat possible to DH. but since we have $17m spent on Morales and Pearce we have to fart around and target backup IF instead.

That's silly, UO.  Encarnacion may have been worth 3 wins more than Morales before, but he's not likely to be worth 3 wins more going forward for the simple reason that Morales ought to be losing playing time if he's a below replacement level player on a full-time basis.

There are lots of ways the club could address its medium-term DH/1B situation.  One might be to seriously attempt to extend Donaldson, and move Guerrero Jr. to first base (as the Cardinals did with Pujols).  Justin Smoak would be a fine DH, and Morales or Pearce (if he's around when Guerrero Jr. is ready) would make a fine pinch-hitter off the bench.  I don't know why you would worry about the decision to not extend Encarnacion and not address the related question of the ongoing possible but unlikely extension of Donaldson, who is a significantly more valuable player. 

everyone talks about the opportunity cost of big-money top-end free agents, but nobody ever bothers to consider the opportunity cost of all the roster clogging of middle-tier borderline starter free agents.

signing another such middling borderline starter free agent is just another step on the path to nowhere, imo.

let's try signing some legit starting quality players. not fill ins. let the kids and cheapo pickups be the fill ins.

The Jays need a quality starter under contract for four or more years. The Starter must be at least as good as Sanchez and Stroman. Ohtani, Darvish and Arrieta are the only Starters that fit, but just cost only money. After 2018, Sanchez and Stroman are the only quality Starters under contract (and only until 2020). Needing three good or better Starters to come out of the Minors is foolish - young Pitchers will just break your heart. The only other alternative is via Trades and I can’t see the Jays will to spend the asset capital to do it right.

J.D. Martinez is the best OF free agent available and he doesn’t defend well enough to earn more than Bautista did last year. Stanton is the best Trade Target, but his massive contract and asset cost could be much too much for the Jays to acquire him.

AA has hired Andrew Tinnish away from the Jays to reunite with him in Atlanta.

Tinnish is a loss, sorry to see him go, but not at all surprised.  Any other likely FO losses to Atlanta?

Dave Cameron argued that Donaldson to St. Louis for Gyorko and Carpenter would be a fair move for both teams.  If we aren't going to seriously pursue an extension, I'd consider it - how about you guys?

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-figure-out-a-cardinals-trade-for-josh-donaldson/

Yay turn our MVP into a couple average players.

EE over Morales would have made no difference last year, except maybe in tying up some money and keeping Bautista away.

I take comfort in Estrada resigning and Donaldson asking to stay. There's still enough of a team left for players to want to hang around.

That idea by Cameron is pretty bad. I don't see how trading Donaldson for two players in their 30's really accomplishes anything, even if it does give the team some infield bodies for 2019. If it was Gyorko, Carpenter, Reyes, and another prospect, then that would make more sense since the Jays would get short-term help and long-term prospects, but 2-for-1 as suggested is an awful idea for the Jays.

That trade looks like one put together by a person adding WAR together and saying 3+3 = 6 so we just need 2 good players to equal an all-star. Real world doesn't work that way. WAR is more expensive the higher it gets in a single player as then you can gather WAR elsewhere to get over the top. An MVP plus 6 decent and 2 bad can = very good team. 9 decent is a 500 club - we saw plenty of those from 1994 to 2014. No thank you.

The Jays need to be ahead of everyone in going after what they need if they are not after the cream of the crop. Tendering/non-tendering of contracts are due Friday, I think? What the Jays do might suggest what we can expect from that point on.

The idea that the Jays could get Reyes, Matt Carpenter and more for one year of Josh Donaldson is laughable.

Both Gyorko and Carpenter are under control for 2018 and 2019 plus an option year for 2020 (the age-30, 31 and 33 years for both players). I'm not saying I would do that trade, but years of control is a factor that favours the Jays in Cameron's proposal.

If Donaldson were to be traded, I would prefer to see the Jays land a high-quality prospect package (maybe someone like Gleyber Torres) over a couple of decent-but-not-great major leaguers. You need elite talent to win in the AL East, and young, low-cost, controllable for six-plus years elite talent is what the Jays should be looking to acquire. I also don't love that Carpenter apparently had some shoulder inflammation at the end of last season.

* age 30, 31 and 32

Dave Cameron is pretty consistent on the linear value or WAR. Free agent values have seemed to bear that out, and that makes sense, given the balance of added reward and added risk of placing all your WAR in one basket.

To me, the value of this deal depends on whether you think Carpenter can return to being a competent 3B. If so, it's up to 3 years of an above average 3B and 3 years of an average or so all-purpose infielder for 1 year of an all-star 3B. It's at least an interesting conversation.

Oh, and I would have preferred a Glyber + package, but I think the opportunity for that was last summer. I don't think the Yankees would do that for one year of Donaldson.

Travis Sawchuk on Fangraphs today:

12:04
P: Is Toronto a top ten possible landing spot for Ohtani? Top 5?

12:05
Travis Sawchik: I think Toronto is a sleeper team for Ohtani . World-class city, large-ish market, high Asian-American (Asian-Canadian?) population and it’s in the AL East ….

I still think the Yankees are the likely destination for Ohtani, but who really knows...

"The idea that the Jays could get Reyes, Matt Carpenter and more for one year of Josh Donaldson is laughable."


I wasn't saying the Cardinals would trade Reyes + a prospect + Carpenter/Gyorko for Donaldson. My point was the inclusion of Reyes would be the only way the deal as presented by Cameron would be favorable to the Jays at all. In other words, the deal sucks. If no prospects are added to Cameron's idea, then you're getting Gyorko's age 29 and 30 seasons (option for age 31) and Carpenter's age 32 and 33 seasons (option for age 34) on a 2nd WC calibre team in 2018 and god knows what in 2019-20. It would make more sense to try to get young players who will be cheap and good when Vlad and others come up, especially if you're trading Donaldson to do it. Otherwise just hold on to him for a year, get a comp pick, and go from there.

Gord Ash used to make these types of trades. It kept the team hovering around .500, but didn't do anything to make them better short or long-term. If trading Donaldson becomes an option, then it needs to be done with the future in mind, not the present. Or the future + present (ex. Gyorko for the present and prospects for the future), but definitely not just the present. The team isn't good enough to make a deal like that.

With AA,Tinnish & Minasian now in Atlanta, I wonder if Braves fans will start Whining "Toronto South", like some Jays fans derisive "Cleveland North" comment about Shapiro's FO. I never understand fans being upset when a new executive brings in their own people whom they trust - the FO has only a few years to prove themselves before fans start to get restless.

I hope the Jays move Donaldson for upside Prospects - while the deal that Cameron proposes seems fair on value, I don't think it gets the Jays the potential upside they need to compete in the AL east,so I would give it a thumbs down.

I don't know what the Jays could offer Ohtani that the Yankees can't, and there's a pretty significant difference between what the two teams could give him as a bonus as well. Even if money isn't a primary factor, the Yankees can give him way more. It's the worst nightmare situation for the Jays, but I also think he's going to the Yankees, and for once it won't be about money.

I think the Jays do have a shot, but it's likely very, very slim, unless Ohtani has some connection to Toronto that we don't know about.

Re: Tinnish, I did find this appropriate. Sarcasm alert.

https://bluejaysnation.com/2017/11/27/cronyism-rampant-in-atlanta-as-braves-hire-andrew-tinnish-away-from-blue-jays/

Ohtani is a guy who seems to like the big stage & combine that with the young talent in the Yankees & Dodgers organisation - I would have to make those 2 teams the favourites - best bet for the jays is if he doesn't sign in the AL east.

The Jays do have a few interesting angles they can pitch to Ohtani. Arguably the most multicultural city, and the unique aspect of a team representing a whole country. Add in the high performance aspirations of the front office and several other things, and I'd say the Jays have an interesting case to make. Since it's not about money with Ohtani, it's really hard to see how it'll break out in the end - he's already shunned the normal prime montivator by not waiting 2 years, so who knows?

Given the Jays injury riddled 2017 season, I don't know if pitching the Jays "High Performance Department" is actually an asset.

There's a reason I said Aspirations...

Thanks for the list of int'l signings mendocino. The loss of Tinnish raises the question of how we can replace him equally.

He signed a huge number of players. Is that significantly more than what the Jays normally sign? I don't know the answer to this. But signing 16-18 year olds means that they will grow. For example 5'4" 130lb may grow into 5'6" 160lb J Altuve. He could be a cheap signing. Altuve was never a big guy.

Signing them by the bushel of all sizes and skill sets will get you some winners. You have to factor in the most projection for 16 year olds.

Friday is the non-tender deadline. In my dream, they non-tender Goins and Loup.

In reality, would it make sense to non-tender before adding the prospects for the rule V draft or do the non-tendered players stay on the roster until they sign somewhere?

It would make more sense to try to get young players who will be cheap and good when Vlad and others come up, especially if you're trading Donaldson to do it

That's a valid opinion and I don't necessarily disagree that it would make more sense to try to trade Donaldson for a higher-upside player with more risk than two above-average players who would help this year, but begin their decline phase relatively soon. A prospect who may align with the timelines of Guerrero and Bichette and hopefully the last couple of years of control of Stroman would set them back this year, but give more hope for the future (although if the Yankees add Ohtani and Harper, the Jays would need significant help from this group of prospects).

However, that wasn't the way the comment read, which suggested that Cameron's proposal was unfair on value. I don't really think it's too far off the mark, given how many years of team control the Jays would be getting from those players. You may still have the last couple of productive years from Carpenter and Gyorko with the beginning of Guerrero and Bichette's MLB tenure.

My biggest problem with the proposal, aside from the fact it tries to thread a middle ground that isn't necessarily the best approach, is that I have questions about how long Gyorko and Carpenter can be average/passable defenders at multiple infield positions, which is where much of the value of Cameron's proposal lies.

"However, that wasn't the way the comment read, which suggested that Cameron's proposal was unfair on value. I don't really think it's too far off the mark, given how many years of team control the Jays would be getting from those players. You may still have the last couple of productive years from Carpenter and Gyorko with the beginning of Guerrero and Bichette's MLB tenure."


If it's just a comparison of 2018 value, then sure, it's not a bad trade. The WAR from those two players might be around what Donaldson will produce at the same cost, give or take, plus will give the team more positional flexibility/depth when injuries occur assuming Carpenter can even play a competent 2B/3B at this point. I agree with you that it's questionable whether those two players can be the type of defensive infielders that could make that reasoning work, moreso Carpenter.

However from a short and long-term baseball standpoint, it's a really bad trade for the Jays. It does not improve them short-term and does nothing to improve them long-term aside from giving them cost certainty and team control over two solid players in 2019 (which may not even be a year the team can compete anyway). It does not add any pieces that could be good during the team's next competitive window, which should be the point in trading Donaldson in the first place, otherwise they can just hold on to him and try to sneak in a 2nd WC berth in 2018.

I wouldn't mind getting one of Gyorko or Carpenter + prospects for Donaldson. That way they would have a 3B to replace Donaldson short-term and some pieces that might help long-term, but a strictly short-term driven move like the one Cameron suggested is exactly what made the Gord Ash teams so mediocre and directionless.

Nobody like losing and it can get you fired. It happens to managers fast and GMs not as fast. You cannot win all the time, but keeping the bottom line healthy factors into job security for a GM.

Shapiro knows this. His hope/goal for waves of prospects graduating to the ML team sort of says this.

76 wins in 2017 is not harmful because it is only 1 bad year. Is it possible to build a team as bad or worse for 2018 and 2019? The records and payrolls for those 2 years will speak for themselves.

The $ for Tulo and Martin have a big impact on the payroll. A reduced payroll with those 2 included is inviting a bad record and the consequences.

Somehow the FO must believe that the team that is constructed this off season can win something between 85 - 89 games. They have a payroll limit and the will to keep hoarding prospects.

In Gift they have saved $ and prospects. But 1 40 man spot is occupied. It can easily change.

"The idea that the Jays could get Reyes, Matt Carpenter and more for one year of Josh Donaldson is laughable."

Reyes is exactly the kind of target that makes sense for Donaldson. Much lesser players than Donaldson command that type of return even as trade deadline rentals.

"Dave Cameron is pretty consistent on the linear value or WAR."

and it has led directly to all his worst predictions.

"Reyes is exactly the kind of target that makes sense for Donaldson. Much lesser players than Donaldson command that type of return even as trade deadline rentals."

Which position player ever got a top prospect at the deadline? Pitchers do because their value increases massively in the playoffs. Hitters' value decreases as the year goes on. Look at what JD Martinez got last year and that's a good idea of what the Jays could likely get for Donaldson at the deadline. Nobody is trading a top-20 prospect+ for one year of even a terrific player.

Even if Donaldson had 2 years of control left, I don't think St. Louis is offering Reyes but I do think that Jack Flaherty could be acquired. The key I think is to get Atlanta involved - a contending season will go a long way to getting rid of the stench emanating from that franchise and they are closer than last year's record indicate plus that FO loves JD - Atlanta has a plethora of upside pitching prospects.

When was the last 31yr old MVP-calibre (4yrs running) position player traded?

and how is JD Martinez - a defensive liability whose best year of his career 3 years ago was worth what Donaldson did last year while missing a third of the year to injury - a comparable for Donaldson?

I'd target Reyes in any deal with the Cardinals (highest upside by far of anyone they have to trade). Whether they trade him or not is another story. Coming off TJS is the only reason he might be in the conversation. I'd be fine with something like Gyorko and Reyes for Donaldson. Short-term player to cover 3B for a year or two and long-term potential front end starter with five years of control left. Flaherty might be a more realistic target of the Cardinals pitching prospects compared to Reyes, but aim high.

If Donaldson is to be traded during the off-season, he is a very valuable commodity.  Any kind of projection system will have him as a 5-6 WAR player, and a large upgrade for any club except the Nationals (Rendon), the Cubs (Bryant), the Indians (Ramirez), the Rockies (Arenado) and the Dodgers (Turner).  Look at it this way.  Mike Moustakas is available on the free agent market.  Some team is probably going to spend a considerable amount of money on him and yet there is a greater distance between Donaldson and Moustakas than between Moustakas and replacement level.  That's worth a lot more than a relief pitcher at the deadline. 

I think Toronto is a sleeper team for Ohtani . World-class city, large-ish market, high Asian-American (Asian-Canadian?) population and it’s in the AL East ….

While I agree with Sawchuk and have been saying this myself for a while, even in regards to regular FAs, is it so hard to grasp the concept of Asian-Canadian?  I'm having a Dewey moment looking at that question mark.

Cameron followed up yesterday's article on JD to St. Louis with an assessment of the trade market for 3B mid-season.  I'm with him on this one - trade JD now if you are going to trade him.  What frustrates me is we seem unlikely to make a strong pitch for an extension, and we are unlikely to make a strong effort to field a competitive team next season.  The offseason plan seems to be 'cross your fingers and hope for Ohtani'. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/third-base-looks-like-a-buyers-market/

I don't think the Cameron trade proposal is so crazy - years of control at fair prices is the appeal of that package, and the 2 options add to that.  I find it comparable to the Estrada and Happ vs. Price debate of a few years back. 

As for non-tenders, Koehler, please Koehler.  It seems odd to keep guys on the 40 man if this is a possibility though.

"I don't think the Cameron trade proposal is so crazy - years of control at fair prices is the appeal of that package, and the 2 options add to that. I find it comparable to the Estrada and Happ vs. Price debate of a few years back."


If Donaldson was a free agent and the Jays signed Gyorko and Carpenter to 2-3 year deals to replace him, then I would agree it would be a good set of moves.

The issue here is the Jays would be trading Donaldson for those two in this scenario. Even if the return for him won't be worth the type of player he is, my guess is the Jays could at least get a couple of young pieces that could be good or very good in return for him. If you can get good young pieces (let's say Flaherty and 2 others) for him, then sign or trade for a couple of 2-3 WAR players the following season, then ultimately you will come out ahead. Or maybe your trade Donaldson, and by 2019 Guerrero will be ready (asking a lot but possible). Then you have the young pieces from the JD trade + now start incorporating your existing prospects into the mix. It's a much better scenario.

I agree though that the Jays really need to decide what they want to do with Donaldson. Either extend him or trade him. I guess it's possible to keep him, win the 2nd WC, and maybe see how far that takes you for a year, but the odds there are not in Toronto's favor. There are going to be a few teams bunched in the same general win projection as the Jays, and a couple of injuries/bad breaks like 2017 can ruin hopes in a hurry. They really have to assess the risk/reward carefully.

the value of this deal depends on whether you think Carpenter can return to being a competent 3B

Any proviso that has someone returning to a previous level of defensive ability should give one pause.

I had assumed the question mark meant "Is that the right terminology?" Not that I can determine what the other possibilities are.

For sure that's what he meant with the question mark James - I'd just argue that the question mark isn't needed as the correct term should be obvious.  I teach in Scarborough and get high school students referring to themselves as "African-American", so it's not just south of the border. 

SK, I'd rather a JD trade be for Gyorko and prospects, or just prospects, and we sign Zach Cozart for the IF.  I just want to see a commitment to a winning plan - short term or long term.  Not a fan of this middle, (mediocre?) path.

Carpenter and Gyorko will make 27.5M in 2019. That's not far from what the Jays would need to pay Donaldson.
Usually when you split WAR between players, they total payroll is less.

The trade value of Donaldson now is very low. Is it less at the trade deadline? It depends if 1 or 2 top thirdbasemen end up on the DL.  Besides, Donaldson has good playoffs numbers. He's no David Price.

well I do agree Jerjapan about not being a fan of the mediocre middle. I think this is more a problem with ownership than the FO. I definitely feel JD should be traded this off season. I would be ok with Gyorko and a good pitching prospect who would be ready no later than 2019.

If there is a GM out there who would overpay for JD, AA is the one but I can't see it making sense for the Braves unless they could sign him longer term. Definitely worth exploring though.

It's also a possibility that the FO is waiting to see what happens with Ohtani before reassessing their chances and settling on a more definite direction.

It's worth remembering that a given player's talent level doesn't determine his "worth" on the trade market. Rather, his market value is a function of supply and demand (as well as the creativity and negotiating skills of the front office personnel involved).

On Fangraphs top-50 trade Value last July, Donaldson wasn't there. He has lost trade value since then and will lose every day he is not trades once the season starts. Even though I don't generally like $/WAR as a concept, it gives you a rough idea of why Donaldson's value is not that high. Let's say Donaldson is a 6 WAR player. He will be paid as if he's around a 2.5 WAR player. For one year, he is giving you an excess of 3.5 WAR value. 3.5 WAR value from a player is not high. For example, what do you think the excess value Ryan Healy will give over the course of his contract? It's obviously different because WAR isn't linear, but people underestimate how value cost control is to teams now.

No, JD Martinez is not as good as Donaldson but he is still an excellent player and the return for him was 2 non prospects. Donaldson would get more (although there actually might be less demand for 3B than for OFer in trade market), but he's not getting back elite prospects at the deadline and would be very unlikely to get an elite prospect even now.

Donaldson’s trade value might actually increase by mid-season, for example, if he’s healthy and productive and a contender has a clear need for a third baseman (perhaps due to an injury). There is no immutable law that says his trade value has to be higher now than it will be then.

I do think it’s unlikely that he’ll be traded this off-season.

There is no immutable law that says his trade value has to be higher now than it will be then.

True that, but the "more value now" argument is premised on the fact that there are more playoff-caliber teams without a 3B right now than there will be at the all-star break. Right now, most every team is a playoff contender (what with their .500 0-0 record) and the teams needing 3B have not yet made their moves, meaning there are many potential buyers.

I do get that a World Series caliber Red Sox team suffering through growing pains from a young 3B might feel the pressure to spend a lot mid-season in 2018 for an upgrade. But unlike moving a SP at the break -- everyone always has room for a good SP -- there is no guarantee there will be a 3B market at all mid-season.

That said, I do agree with you that I doubt Donaldson will be moved this off-season. When you're drawing almost 40K people per game, you might not want to tick off the fan base.

Right now, it doesn't even look like Boston has enough prospects left to get Stanton.

The best way to get an elite prospect for Donaldson might be to let him walk and draft one.

Anyone has a figure on what Donaldson is asking? His projected salary for 2018 is 20.7M.
Might be easier once free agents start signing for less than their demand.
I mean, Martinez is not getting 210M.

Jon Paul Morosi had a piece on MLB.COM where he listed his top 8 contenders for Ohtani - 1 team was conspicuously missing - maybe they should get a jump on their alternate plans - like answering the phone when St. Louis and Atlanta call.

If the Jays can't find takers for them, I hope they non-tender Koehler (too expensive), Goins & Carrera - create some space on the 40 man roster.

the lengths people will go to convince themselves that an elite 31yr old is worthless amazes me.

the lengths people will go to convince themselves that an elite 31yr old is worthless amazes me.

I'm not sure if anyone is suggesting quite that. The obvious problem is his impending free agency.

I understand that even if the Jays were to sign him to a big FA contract, his prime years would not overlap with the productive years we are (over-confidently) assuming Guerrero/Bichette are soon to provide. So I get the argument about the timing being wrong.

But I am also selfish. If I am to spend time watching the Jays, I would enjoy watching a 6-WAR player, even as he declines into a "mere" 3- or 4-WAR player. A strong team, just a few years off, with a system rich enough to continuously supply young talent seems like a dubious promise, and one that is not convincing enough for me to willingly spend time devoted to a few years of meh. Of course, the team could be meh even with Donaldson, as they well proved in 2017.

I mean we see top prospects traded for rentals literally all the time.

And for rentals nowhere remotely near as good as Donaldson.

And that's for 2 month rentals.

I can't remember - who was the last top prospect traded for a non-pitcher rental?

Well, seeing as all the GM's base their player value on fangraph's ranking no wonder Donaldson isn't worth a hill of beans.

everyone here argues until they're blue in the face that position players are more valuable than pitchers when comparing our young talent to other teams.....but now our mvp position player isn't worth as much as a 2 month rental of a good reliever.

It will be difficult, if not impossible, to build a sustained contender if one is worried to the point of inaction about ticking off the fans.

A contender, let alone a sustained contender, is only an imperative if it is a means to generating more revenue. Lest we forget, Rogers is in this for the moolah, not bragging rights. I'm sure the bean counters are hard at work modeling the optimization of revenues and that will impose the "payroll parameters" onto Shapiro and Atkins.

Lets hope that it is a decent payroll. One that won't prevent the team from signing good players to good contracts or we will have a hard time competing.

EE and Bautista signed good contracts when they played as Jays.

Martin and Tulo were not Jays when they signed their contracts, also good. They were traded for after the contracts were signed.

"I mean we see top prospects traded for rentals literally all the time.

And for rentals nowhere remotely near as good as Donaldson.

And that's for 2 month rentals."

First of all, you don't see top prospects for rentals all the time. The top prospects traded at the deadline last year were for controllable pitchers. The one rental you saw that brought back a top-100 prospect was Darvish and the main prize was BA's #74 prospect at mid-season. Calhoun is a good prospect but nowhere near elite. Teams now value cost controlled players too much to give them away that easily.

When rentals do bring back anything it's because they are pitchers because pitchers have increased value in the playoffs. Hitters value decreases as the year goes on. Nobody is going to trade elite prospects for a hitter no matter how good, with 2 months of contract left.

Glevin you yelled up and down that position players were more valuable than pitchers when it suited your argument.

Morosi says the Jays were sniffing around Markakis.

which sounds......exactly right.

If Morosi says it, it must be true.

Martin and Tulo were not Jays when they signed their contracts, also good. They were traded for after the contracts were signed.

It's been a crazy day, but IIRC, AA signed Russel Martin to his current contract as a Jay? I don't recall any "trade for RM".

Morosi likes using #bluejays even when there’s nothing to talk about because he knows it will get attention. On the list of sources that I’d trust, he wouldn’t be on the top of it, to put it mildly.

Thanks for the correction on Martin vw fan17. I like the deal. 5 years for his playing and mentoring of the young pitchers.

When Martin was playing for the Yankees and the Pirates, the French CBC radio was spending more times covering those teams than the Blue Jays. And now the Jays can lead the AL in attendance and finish last at the same time which didn't seem possible a few years back.

Side note: I wonder whether the Jays’ Ohtani proposal was written in clear and comprehensible language, or whether the front office deployed its jargony corporate-speak (perhaps out of habit) even in these circumstances. Atkins’s statement the other day suggests that this may have been the case.

oh man we should all try writing out our version of what that letter is in shapkins speech.

Interestingly, Ohtani requested that the proposals be delivered in English and Japanese. Translating into Japanese is significantly more complex than other languages (like French or Spanish). It's a completely different language structure, very nuanced, and it takes real expertise to ensure that the true meaning is preserved while still reading naturally and not awkwardly. I imagine that professional translation companies were in HIGH DEMAND last weekend!

I have no idea if this matters or not in his final decision but I keep trying to convince myself that he'd be happier in Toronto than in New York or LA. I would love to see the final proposals from some of these teams... I'm sure they were some impressive submissions!

an early look at Dan's Zips:

insert an impact level guy or 2 in those 1-war slots and we're looking pretty dang good. would help if we weren't paying anything for those 1war slots.

The ZIPS numbers feel about right. But Sanchez, boy howdy, that's where the worry lies. I still would like to hear how next year will be any different than this year. He will just magically be healed?

Marcel the Monkey has Sanchez at 89 innings with a 3.54 ERA.  That's probably a 1.5 WAR player.  Which looks right to me.  The rest of the projections from Marcel look to be in line with ZiPS.  Tulo is projected for 380 PAs and Travis for 340 by Marcel with Travis having a better batting line.

Pearce ought to have a 0 projection as a left-fielder, and Morales as an everyday DH about the same. He might make 1 WAR if you conscientiously used him in non-DP situations. 

I think Pearce will bounce back with the bat in 2018, but agreed as long as he is a LF, he can't be counted on to be too much of a positive overall. He needs to play 1B/DH primarily, but that can't happen with Smoak and Morales on the roster. If Hosmer signs somewhere else, maybe the Jays can convince the Royals to take Morales back.

In Blue Jay related news Gregg Zaun has been fired by Rogers for inappropriate behaviour.

The Braves have traded Jim Johnson and 1.21M in bonus money to the Angels for a 25 year old A pitcher.
That looks like a big salary dump. I guess one cannot just trade international pool money for cash?

It sounds like it's mostly inappropriate comments.
Maybe that explains why they called him The Manalyst...

In Blue Jay related news Gregg Zaun has been fired by Rogers for inappropriate behaviour.

I think we are witnessing an amazing shift in the culture. The floodgates are opening. The names are going to keep on coming.

Wow.  Sad but true Chuck.  I'm guilty of having liked Zaun's oversized personality at times, but perhaps the clock is ticking for the pumped up alpha male persona in the sports world. 

We've had plenty of terrible revelations with regards to politicians and entertainment types recently, but not so many in the sports world.  I imagine with Wilt Chamberlain types there may be a well overdue reckoning. 

I think we are witnessing an amazing shift in the culture. The floodgates are opening. The names are going to keep on coming.

In the entertainment world, probably true.  In politics, "the floodgates are opening" probably means something different altogether. 

I'm guilty of having liked Zaun's oversized personality at times, but perhaps the clock is ticking for the pumped up alpha male persona in the sports world.

I'm not sure the "alpha male" has much to worry about, as long as they can keep it in their pants.

jerjapan, honestly, I'm surprised about this response from you; the ad hoc Batter's Box snowflake-brand morality judge. I would've thought you'd be the first to the effigy.

sorry, what?  who?  why? 

Thank you Parker, for proving my point.  Just pointing out to the community, for those unfamiliar, the term 'snowflake' is common amongst the alt-right.  It means someone who is 'delicate' in that they are offended by things such as sexism, racism and classism. 

Oh, hey, look, baseball over there *points away from the unprovoked smear post*.

I hear there's a player from the far East that can both pitch AND hit. Wouldn't it be nifty if the Blue Jays could sign him? Eh? EH?

SMDH.

I'm guessing that the Blue Jays won't be incorporating this chart into their pitch to Ohtani's representatives:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-team-can-keep-shohei-ohtani-the-healthiest/

I think we are witnessing an amazing shift in the culture.

I wish I could be that optimistic - sadly & depressingly, I think it's just a passing phenomena and in a couple of years it will be as it was before - hopefully, I'm wrong.

There are certain people I would be surprised to hear being linked to this type of conduct.

Gregg Zaun is not one of them.

I don't know. Once chart about DL time, one about major injuries and one about hitters?
Except Ohtani is a pitcher. Didn't a team just have an amazing run of starting pitcher health just  a year ago?

Also, how many teams have acquired an  extra starter and gone to a 6 man rotation solely to protect the arm of a young pitcher recently?

Anthony Gose has signed a minor league contract with the Rangers as a lefty reliever--and outfielder.
I like the idea of having a LOOGY who can come in as a pinch runner or defensive replacement in the outfield.

The best way to keep Ohtani healthy is to make him a full-time right-fielder.  Ruth began his conversion at age 24. 

knowing zaun and his entourage a wee bit from the watering holes we've shared (and where he picked up his wife), this news ain't surprising.

The 2018 ZiPS projections for Toronto are up on fangraphs.  The Anthony Alford projection is quite interesting.  He is projected to be pretty much a league average player despite a .222/.298/.342 slash line and a .297 BABIP.  If the BABIP is .320 (as I think is the floor for him at this age), he's a good player.  If it is .340, he's a very good player.  Jansen and McGuire are also projected to be capable major league catchers. 

The #1 comp for Devon Travis is Davey Johnson. That would be very good- we'll see if Devon can stay healthy enough to achieve that.

Looking at ZiPS, the projections still like Rowdy Tellez. The numbers still see him as a league average player despite his bad 2017.

I have been looking at a few other teams top prospects. TB impresses me. They added 7 players for Rule 5 protection. T Guerrieri was good and waived. Injuries of some kind were the problem. Hopefully/possibly surgery was done and was successful. He may have to rehab some more but I believe that we have a highly regarded SP prospect from a strong system.

He says he is 100% and ready to go. We will see in ST.

[Rowdy Tellez]... The numbers still see him as a league average player despite his bad 2017.

Gerry, how do you see that. The average AL hitter put up a 324/429 line in 2017. ZIPS has Tellez down for a 302/406 in 2018 (as a first baseman!).

So not a league average hitter and certainly not a league average player given his position.

Zips wRC+ projections for the prospect bats:

1.Bichette 96
2.Guerrero 92
3.Hernandez 88
4.Tellez 86
5.Jansen 82
6.Smith 78
7.Gurriel 75
8.Alford 73
9.McGuire 73
10.Pompey 73
11.Pentecost 62
12.Urena 59

Steamer

1.Hernandez 89
2.Pompey 89
3.Jansen 87
4.Smith 85
5.Alford 82
6.Guerrero 82
7.Tellez 80
8.Bichette 77
9.Gurriel 71
10.McGuire 70
11.Urena 63
12.Pentecost 57


Average

1.Hernandez 89
2.Bichette 87
3.Guerrero 87
4.Jansen 85
5.Tellez 83
6.Smith 82
7.Pompey 81
8.Alford 78
9.Gurriel 73
10.McGuire 72
11.Urena 61
12.Pentecost 60

Yeah, I misspoke about Tellez. I should have said that his projection was one of the best for the kids on the farm. I was looking at his 0.2 WAR and his 86 WRC+, and seeing Teoscar Hernandez with a 88 WRC+ and thinking that Tellez was pretty close to him and better than a lot of the other kids.

haha my man Parker is back.

You know what, I always liked that Zaun was old school.

I'm guessing Zaun harrassed women who probably weren't really qualified to be working on a sports network but were hired because they are attractive.

I can't quote from my phone but I gotta say what does the reason, or whether the women were qualified have to do with anything? It's unjustifiable behavior, and while it might not be the intent, the comment suggests some kind of legitimacy that I fundamentally disagree with.

That's tiresome, pubster.

Personally, I'm remembering Alison Gordon and trying to guess what words she would have used for this.  Her book "Foul Balls" has a few bits on it, but in person, she would have been saltier about it. 

Mike, I'm not saying what Zaun did was ok.

I'm just saying that a lot of women get hired to sports shows because they are attractive rather than being qualified.

I'm just commenting on the irony.

I'm just commenting on the irony.

You sure you know what irony means?

A company hires a women because she is attractive even though she is not qualified.

The women gets hit on/harrassed because she is attractive. Which ironically is the reason she was hired.

Chuck?

Note: I'm not saying Zaun's behaviour is justifiable.

why isn't being attractive a qualification?

are you saying hot women deserve to be harassed?

are you saying hazel mae isn't insanely more qualified than idiots like Barry Davis and Jamie Campbell?

I never said hot women deserve to be harassed. I also never said anything about Hazel Mae. I was just commenting on the irony.


I think some ppl need to work on their reading comprehension.

Why is it ok to call Barry Davis and Jamie Campbell idiots?

But to say some women get ahead because of their looks and not their qualifications is not ok?

Wouldn't it be better for young girls to watch tv and think they can get these jobs by knowing their stuff rather than being attractive?

;)

Well, previous comments from Zaun that circulated on the internet were more about unattractive women.
In they end, your guess is as good as mine.

Scottt, I didn't think about that!

Yeah I was just totally guessing. Not sure why people would be so upset about my guess.

Tinnish staying with Jays.....not going to Braves per Rosenthal

I hope Tinnish stays with the Jays.

Goins and Koehler have been non-tendered.

Glad to see the Jays taking the back-up infield role seriously. Last season's excessive usage of Goins and Barney may have been a wake up call.

Jays acquire ss Aledmis Diaz from Cards for JB Woodman

Diaz can play short, third, second or left field. He hit reasonably well last year good for 3+ WAR as the was the Cards shortstop, but he commited 16 error. BR still gave him an average defensive rating.

It looks like those who want the money to be spend on a starter and an outfielder might end up satisfied.

As a contractor employed by an industry that hires women almost exclusively based on their appearance, I feel that I'm qualified to say that if you can't treat THOSE women with respect, you're probably not going to do any better at women in general.

From what I've learned from my admittedly limited sources at the Jays front office, Zaun is a despicable misogynist and this should've happened about eight years ago.

"Why is it ok to call Barry Davis and Jamie Campbell idiots?"

Because they're both white males. Um, also, they're both kinda ugly. :)

Diaz could be a solid buy low or he could never bounce back but he only makes the minimum and still has options.

Not bad. I don't know if they'll be able to retain Koehler, but the bullpen isn't an issue anyway.

To put it bluntly the minorities accepted and compensated for the discrimination against them. It may have made them stronger. As change happened the perpetrators had to be punished. They were raised that way, but the world changed. They will adjust. The reality is that nobody is better than anyone else.

A Diaz had a great 2016.

Woodman for Diaz? Two thumbs up. This off-season is already way ahead of the last one. 

The trade looks like a pretty good one. Diaz seems to be a much better backup option than Goins or Barney.

Diaz may never hit like he did in 2016 again, but anything above replacement level is an upgrade on Goins, and he projects to be pretty decent offensively for a utility infielder (94 wRC+ projection for 2018). There's some upside there. This is the type of trade I was hoping the FO would make. I would have liked Profar better, but can't complain about getting anything of value for Woodman, much less someone who could be a decent big leaguer with many years of cheap control left.

Good start to the off-season.

Sounds good on the surface. Diaz was an all-star as a rookie in 2016, poor 2017 in majors and minors (just shy of a 700 OPS in AAA and in the majors). He has played at SS/2B/LF/3B in the majors. He made $2 mil last year (4 year $8 mil deal when he signed) but isn't even arbitration eligible until 2020 at the earliest so he is a very cheap option. Not sure if he has options left (was he on St Louis' 40 man as part of his deal...he is from Cuba).

JB Woodman played in full-season A last year with a 699 OPS mainly in CF/RF but some time in LF and DH (1 out at 1B). He was a 2nd round pick in 2016. K'ed 157 times in 414 PA vs just 40 walks last year. Not a guy I'd be excited about.

Seems like the Jays have their replacement for Goins here. Cheap, flexible. Bat isn't totally dead. His glove is poor at SS based on FanGraphs but is OK at 3B and 2B in limited time. Can't complain about this trade and it could pay off later.

Count both of my thumbs in the upright position for this move. He's a good risk considering the price, given he has solid starter upside

nice nothing gamble on diaz.

but OMIGOD DINGDONG THE GOINS IS DEAD THE GONS IS DEAD

"Why is it ok to call Barry Davis and Jamie Campbell idiots? "

did you just compare calling dummies dumb to calling goodlooking women unqualified and deserving of sexual harassment?

I'm pretty happy we moved on form Goins and Diaz is potentially the type of offensive middle infielder I wanted on the team. Hopefully we cover off some of his defence by shifting more.

Ugly one. Nobody said good looking women deserve harassment. I really thought you were a a better poster than this.

Woodman looked like he was not going to make it, so turning him into a major league player is good. Diaz' 2016 season is probably going to be his high water mark, but if he can rebound somewhat from 2017 he will be a nice asset. Coming from Cuba, there is not the usual stat package from A, A+ etc. so it's a little hard to project his numbers - only 762 minor league AB's outside of Cuba. He made $2,000,000 last year, and the Jays can offer a cut of at most 20%, so $1,600,000 is the lowest they can offer him, if they want to play hardball, so to speak. Be interesting to see if they go that route, or play nice and offer him what he was making last year.

Not surprised to see Goins and Koehler non-tendered. There were a few interesting non-tenders today including Al Alburquerque, J.J. Hoover, Mike Fiers, Hector Rondon, Matt Adams, Jared Hughes and A.J. Griffin.

Good to see Tinnish staying with Toronto.

Looks like the Giants are front runners for Stanton. As a Giants' fan, I have to say I think they will regret it if they trade for him and take on the vast majority of that contract, especially since rumours indicate they would be giving up 3 top prospects plus Joe Panik.

Diaz was reported to be close to Jose Fernandez. Also he broke his  thumb late in 2016 and was hit on the hands before his callback this year.

A production somewhere between 2016 and 2017 would be fine.

Woodman could be part of a package from the Cards to get Stanton. 

Woodman does not make enough contact, sorta like the opposite of Harold Ramirez who makes plenty of contact but doesn't have enough power or speed to make it work.