Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

The middle 10 of our top 30 prospects is a real melting pot. You have players from last year's top 10 who are dropping on account of underwhelming performance. You have the players with average years who remained in the middle. You have a rising star who had a great season to put himself on the map, as well as a new draftee and a player who arrived through a trade.




20. Hagen Danner | C

Image from John Lott.

Year Age Team AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2017
18
GCL
125
5
0
2
5
36
3
1
.160
.207
.248

In the second round of the 2017 draft, the Jays nabbed Hagen Danner, who they had been linked to in pre-draft rumours. Danner was a well-regarded prospect who attracted interest as both a pitcher and a catcher, with the industry seemingly split on whether they preferred him behind the plate or on the mound.

Minor league prospect writer Christopher Crawford liked him on the mound, while John Manuel, then of Baseball America, loved him behind the plate. So did prospect writer Eric Longenhagen, who admitted he needed more reps behind the plate, but thought that he had real potential to stay at catcher long-term. However, many pre-reports seemed more intrigued by his mound presence than Danner’s potential behind the plate.

Born in Huntington Beach, Danner is a 6’1” 195-pound right-hander who was committed to UCLA, but seen as signable if he was drafted in the first couple of rounds. Having been linked to the Blue Jays, Danner admitted that he had his eyes on the 28th overall pick, which was Toronto’s second first-round pick. Ranked 30th overall by Keith Law, 41st overall by MLB Pipeline and 46th by Baseball America, Danner was anxious as the pick passed and then the second round progressed without hearing his name. He realized that Toronto had the 61st pick and began to keep his eye on that pick. After he was selected in that spot, Danner and the Jays were soon able to work out a deal.

When he was selected, the Jays announced Danner as a catcher despite the fact he has a fastball that sits in the low 90s, an above-average curveball and a developing change-up. With three pitches that projected as at least major-league average, advanced control for a high school pitching prospect and consistent mechanics, Danner has legitimate potential as a pitcher. However, the main drawback to Danner’s future on the mound was that he appeared to lack projectability. This worried some scouts, who thought his current form may be close to the finished product.

Other scouts preferred taking advantage of Danner’s strong arm behind the plate, where he could also make good use of his athletic frame. MLB Pipeline reported, “[Danner] has the chance to a special catcher. He has good hands and a plus arm defensively and, while he's a below-average runner, his athleticism and mobility helps him move well behind the dish.” However, it was nearly universal opinion Danner needed time to get the repetitions to refine his defensive skills. At the plate, Danner has plus raw power at a plate and is a good athlete. There are reports that he can get pull-conscious and lacks plus bat speed. He’ll also need at-bats to unlock his power, which he flashes occasionally.

A veteran of the 2011 Little League World Series, where the Huntington Beach team won the Championship with a 2-1 victory, Danner is best friends with Nick Pratto, who was selected 14th overall by Kansas City and who played alongside Pratto in Huntington Beach at the Little League World Series and in high school. Danner threw 8 1/3 scoreless innings in two Little League World Series starts and collected 11 hits in six games in Williamsport, with the last hit tying the final 1-1 with Japan. In his senior year, Danner was chosen as the Los Angeles Times’s Player of the Year, hitting .350 with 12 home runs and 40 RBI while also going 11-1 with a 1.22 ERA as a pitcher.

Danner prefers to play catcher, but said he is open to returning to the mound if he was ever asked to. In the meantime, Toronto has one of the best catching prospects from last year’s draft in their system and a lot of time to nurture his talents. They also have the benefit of having a fallback plan if Danner becomes one of the long list of high school catchers who stagnate in the minors and don’t develop as their parent clubs hoped.


19. Thomas Pannone  | LHP

Image from New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

Year Age Teaml G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2017
23
LYN*
5 5
27.2 3.3 0.0 2.3 12.7 0.00
2017
23
AKR*
14 14
81.2 7.3 0.5 2.3 8.9 2.62
2017
23
NH
6 6
34.2 8.0 2.3 2.1 7.5 3.63

* - with Cleveland.

Thomas Pannone (pronounced ‘pah-NOAN’, like 'known') hopes to be a known commodity heading into his first full season in the Toronto system. He is among a large group of players to get drafted twice but not as many can say they have been drafted as a position player one year and a pitcher the next. The Cranston, Rhode Island native was drafted out of Bishop Hendricken High School as an outfielder by the Chicago Cubs in the 33rd round of the 2012 draft. He decided to go the junior college route with Southern Nevada in 2013 and was given a shot on the mound against a mostly left-handed hitting lineup early that season and he responded with over six innings of shutout ball. He went on to win six of eight decisions with a 1.84 earned run average with a 78-21 strikeout-walk total in 53-2/3 innings that included four complete games and two shutouts. That performance convinced Cleveland to take him in the 9th round of the 2013 draft.

Pannone’s breakout season was in 2016 when he earned a Midwest League All-Star berth and was promoted to the Carolina League where he went a combined 8-5 with a 2.57 ERA. His last two starts of the year resulted in 13 innings of shutout ball and that was part of a streak of 52-2/3 innings that carried in 2017 in which he did not allow an earned run. That streak ended not too long after a promotion to Double-A Akron but he still continued to pitch well as he earned an Eastern League All-Star berth. The 6-foot-1 lefty was then acquired by the Blue Jays right at the July 31 trade deadline in the Joe Smith deal.

After a tough debut with the Fisher Cats, Pannone allowed just one run in three of his final four starts to end the season. However, he was not as successful keeping the ball down in Double-A as his groundball rate fell over 10 percent to the mid-30 percent range. Also, his home-run fly ball rate shot up over 10 percent after arriving in Manchester.

According to various scouting reports, Pannone is said to have a three-pitch mix consisting of a low-90s fastball, a low 70s curveball and a mid-80s changeup. Neither of the offerings are considered plus but his 11-5 curve is rated as slightly above average to go along with a deceptive delivery. An off-season weightlifting program and an overhauled delivery that eliminated throwing across his body helped Pannone add a couple of ticks to his heater at 92-93 MPH. He told MinorLeagueBall.com the keys to his success have been getting ahead with his fastball by spotting it on both sides of the plate and increasing the usage of his secondary offerings.

Projected as a back-end starter, Pannone may begin 2018 back in New Hampshire but trips to Buffalo and Toronto later in the year are not out of the realm of possibility. He turns 24 on April 28.

18. Justin Maese | RHP



Image from Kyle Castle.

Year Age Team G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2017
20
GCL
3 3
9.0 13.0 1.0 1.0 9.0 5.00
2017
20
LAN
12 12
70.2 9.9 0.4 3.3 7.6 4.84

Toronto’s 3rd round pick in the 2015 draft, right-handed pitcher Justin Maese turned down a scholarship to Texas Tech to sign with the Blue Jays. The two-sport standout was Yselta High School’s starting quarterback, throwing 22 touchdowns and leading the team to a 7-4 record. He attracted interest from colleges as a quarterback, but Maese’s first love was always baseball.

As a junior, the 6-foot-3 190-pound El Paso native struck out 156 batters and was named to the Louisville Slugger High School All-American First Team. He burst onto scouts’ radar as a senior with a fastball that sat 88-92 miles per hour, as well as a slider that was clocked at 86 mph. In his senior season, Maese led Yselta High to the state playoffs with 81 strikeouts and an 0.72 ERA.

Maese’s performance as a senior, as well as his projectable frame, led to him being one of the leading “pop-up” pitching prospects for the 2015 draft. Due to his late rise, the pre-draft rankings on Maese varied considerably. He was ranked 131st by MLB.com, 134th overall by Baseball America, but 33rd overall by Keith Law.

In 2015, Maese made four starts and four relief appearances for the Gulf Cost League Jays. Over 35.2 innings, Maese posted a 5-0 record and a 1.01 ERA. He finished his season against the GCL Tigers with six strong innings over which he struck out 10. Maese was named the R. Howard Webster Award winner for the GCL Blue Jays.

Maese started 2016 with Vancouver, where he made five starts. Maese posted a 2.05 ERA over 26.1 innings for the Canadians. He had 20 strikeouts against only one walk. After five starts he was promoted to Lansing where he made ten starts. Over 56.1 innings, Maese posted a 3.36 ERA with 44 strikeouts and 14 walks.

Unfortunately, 2017 was an injury-plagued year for Maese. He went back to Lansing, where he made 10 starts before hitting the DL for a month and a half with shoulder injuries. Maese made three rehab starts at Rookie Ball and two starts with the Lugnuts before he hit the DL for the third time during the season with shoulder issues. After struggling a little bit to begin the season, Maese proceeded to have quality starts in four of his five starts before going on the DL. His injury appears to have come at a quite inopportune time and potentially changed the course of his season. Maese struggled in his first start back at Lansing after his longer DL stint, so his overall numbers look poor, but it may well have been a different season if he hadn’t been injured when he was pitching well in May.

While Maese’s sinker/slider combination appears to have quite effective his first couple years in the minors, his groundball-to-flyball ratio has decreased in each season. With the GCL Jays, Maese posted a 2.58 groundball-to-flyball ratio. He improved upon this while with Vancouver, increasing his ratio to 3.29. It dropped to to 2.29 with Lansing in 2016, and fell again to 1.79 over the past season, suggesting that an inability to keep the ball down may have contributed to his struggles.

Maese appears to have sacrificed some velocity as he’s come to rely primarily on his sinker, which has movement and has generated the ground ball totals. In 2016, speaking about his reliance on his sinker, Maese has said, “The velocity was lower, but the hitters, all they were hitting was ground balls so it was easy outs and I stuck to that. The velocity, I don’t really care about that. As long as I was getting those outs I kept throwing that sinker.”

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Maese back at Lansing again to begin 2018, with the idea of having him progress to Dunedin during the season. Maese will only be 21 in 2018, so there is no rush to move Maese through the minors quickly. The primary thing the Jays may want out of 2018 for Maese is a clean bill of health, so he can continue to work on increasing his stamina and going deeper into games.


17. Reese McGuire | C



Image from New Hampshire Union Leader.

Year Age Team AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2017
22
GCL
22
0
0
3
3
1
0
1
.409
.462
.500
2017
22
DUN
12
1
0
0
1
2
0
0
.250
.308
.333
2017
22
NH
115
5
1
6
16
19
2
1
.278
.366
.496

A former first-round pick known primarily for his defence, Reese McGuire came to the Jays in the Francisco Liriano trade and immediately became Toronto’s best catching prospect. However, at this stage Danny Jansen and Max Pentecost, if he remains able to catch, have overtaken him, and 2017 draftees Riley Adams and Hagen Danner are nipping at his heels, if they haven’t already surpassed his prospect standing. At this point, the Jays are likely hoping that McGuire becomes a glove-first backup, although his 2017 season offers a little more hope that he may add value at the plate, as well.

Born in 1995, McGuire is a 5’11” left-handed hitter. McGuire was Pittsburgh’s first-round draft pick in 2013 from a high school in Covington, Washington. After selecting him 14th overall, the Pirates paid McGuire $2.36 million to sign him away from his commitment to the University of San Diego. McGuire was universally seen as a first-round talent because of his athleticism, baseball intelligence and skills behind the plate.

Since being drafted, McGuire had steadily progressed through the minor leagues. He spent 2013 in the Gulf Coast League, where he posted a .780 OPS. He went to A ball in 2014, graduated to advanced A ball in 2015 and spent 2016 in Double-A, although he had never posted an OPS above .700 over the latter three seasons. McGuire came to the Jays during the 2016 season, whereupon he posted a .592 OPS with the Fisher Cats. His combined OPS over the season was .667, which was actually his best season at the plate over the prior three seasons.

In light of these offensive struggles, it wasn’t surprising that Toronto sent McGuire back to New Hampshire in 2017. McGuire missed time from May through mid-July with an injury, but while he was in Double-A McGuire slashed .278/.366/.496, which was his highest slugging percentage in a minor league season by more than 100 points. Prior to going on the DL, McGuire was hitting .216/.311/.373, so much of his offensive burst came after he was activated from the DL through the end of the year.

Reportedly, McGuire has difficulty making hard contact. He has had difficulty hitting the ball with power, as he hit one homer over 2015 and 2016, although he hit six homers this season, including four between August 6 and September 2. In the past, McGuire has reportedly also had trouble hitting the ball with authority. However, McGuire has strong plate discipline, as he walked more times than he struck out in 2016 and, in a promising sign, his offensive prowess this season didn’t come at the expense of his batting eye, as he had 16 walks to 19 strikeouts at New Hampshire.

Scouts have been uniform in their praise of McGuire’s defensive abilities, which include advanced framing skills and his ability to work with his pitching staff. McGuire reportedly has soft hands, an above-average arm and good mobility behind the plate. He’s more athletic than the average catcher and may age well as a result.

After 2016, McGuire looked like he was destined to be a pure backup catcher, but his performance at the plate in 2017 has raised questions as to whether he may have more to contribute at the major leagues. At the least, if offers renewed hope that he may be a backup with better hitting ability than the Jays have seen over the past few seasons from Luke Maile and Josh Thole. Although Russell Martin is locked in as the primary catcher for the next couple of years, he will need more regular rest and this will provide an opportunity for the Jays younger catchers. There is no immediate rush to promote Jansen or McGuire to the majors, but it would be surprising if McGuire doesn’t seen major league action in 2017 and, hopefully, Martin will prove to be an effective tutor for the young backstop.


16. Rowdy Tellez | 1B



Image from MiLB.com.

Year Age Team AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2017
22
BUF
445
29
1
6
47
94
6
1
.222
.295
.333

Rowdy Tellez had a disappointing season. In spring training he was touted as a mid-season potential call-up for the Jays. When the trade deadline came and passed, no-one was calling for Rowdy to come up. The season got off to a great start for Rowdy, he hit two home runs on opening day. He hit four more in the rest of the season. Tellez didn't hit for average and he didn't hit for power. His strikeout rate was not bad, 19%. His BABIP was low at .264, the lowest of his career. Tellez did not hit a home run after June 27.

If Tellez didn't hit and didn't hit for power, how is he still ranked as a prospect? One reason is his age, he played this season at 22 years old. That is very young for a AAA player. Tellez could get incrementally better next year at age 23, remain in AAA all season, and still be ready to contribute in the major leagues in 2019 as a 24 year old. The other reason for some some optimism is Tellez's August. Rowdy hit over .300 in August. He also walked 12 times in the month, his highest monthly total on the year. Now one month does not a season make, but it does leave a window of optimism, that when combined with his young age, gives hope for 2018. Tellez should return to Buffalo for 2018 and perhaps next year will result in that call-up.


15. Max Pentecost | C



Image from Eddie Michels.

Year Age Team AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2017
24
GCL
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.000
.000
.000
2017
24
DUN
286
14
2
9
23
62
9
4
.276
.332
.434

After not signing Phil Bickford in 2013, the Jays selected Max Pentecost 11th overall in 2014, with their makeup pick. In his junior season, Pentecost was named a finalist for the Dick Howser Award as college baseball’s top player. Pentecost was also named the Atlantic Sun Conference Player of the Year and was awarded the Johnny Bench Award as the top catcher in the NCAA. The Kennesaw State product hit .422 and posted a 1.109 OPS in his sophomore season. He shot up draft boards after being named the Most Valuable Player of the Cape Cod League in 2013 with a batting line of .346/.425/.538, along with six home runs and 29 RBIs.

However, his professional career has been clouded by injuries. After 25 minor league games in 2014, which included a 5-for-5 performance in his second Gulf Coast League game, Pentecost missed part of the season with a wrist injury and underwent surgery for a partially-torn labrum in his shoulder at the end of the year. Unfortunately, this operation didn’t go as well as hoped and he had to undergo a second shoulder surgery in February 2015. Pentecost would miss the entire 2015 season while recovering and rehabbing from the second surgery.

However, this surgery didn’t fix the problem entirely and Pentecost was still experiencing significant amounts of shoulder pain. After an MRI, Pentecost underwent a third surgery in October 2015. He made it back on to the diamond on May 12, 2016 for his first game since August 7, 2014. In his first game back, Pentecost reminded Jays fans of his offensive talent, with a 3-for-4 performance that included a home run. Pentecost spent most of 2016 with Lansing, where he hit .314/.375/.490 in 62 games. He had the highest OPS in 2016 for the Lugnuts of anyone with at least 50 at-bats. However, Pentecost played every game at DH.

Pentecost didn’t repeat his 2016 performance at the plate in 2017, but he posted a strong season with a .276/.332/.434 line for the Dunedin Blue Jays, which was good for a 124 OPS+. Pentecost did end up on the DL on August 10, which ended his season. However, more importantly, Pentecost returned to the field for the first time since 2014. He split his 71 games for Dunedin between DH (30), first base (22) and catcher (19). Pentecost made two errors in 194.1 innings at first, but didn’t make an error behind the plate. Although he allowed three passed balls, he threw out 7 of 15 base runners, which was a promising sign.

After the 2016 season, Pentecost’s future behind the plate looked to be in doubt. Blue Jays director of player development Gil Kim was optimistic that Pentecost could still be a major league catcher and the Jays had Pentecost doing non-throwing defensive drills in practices, such as working on blocking and footwork. It seemed somewhat optimistic last offseason, but this year may prove to have been an important stepping stone in getting him back onto the field and there’s renewed optimism that Pentecost won’t be limited to DH or 1B.


14. Conner Greene | RHP




Image from 27 Outs Baseball.

Year Age Team G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2017
22
NH
26 25 132.2 9.6 0.5 5.6 6.2 5.29

Conner Greene is reminiscent of previous Blue Jay minor league pitchers Ricky Romero and Aaron Sanchez. All three have overwhelming "stuff" and all three have delivered, or, in the case of Greene, are delivering, underwhelming results. The result is a pitcher with extremely high variability of future performance. Greene could find his command and turn out to be an ace pitcher. He could take some time, like Sanchez, and flit between the bullpen and the rotation. He could become an excellent bullpen pitcher. Or you could never find the command and be out of baseball in a few years.

So what does Greene have? He has a mid-90's fastball with movement. It's a fastball that he can get up to the high-90's on occasion. He has a plus curveball and a plus changeup. A pitcher with three plus pitches will always interest a scout or coach. However it is the execution that is lacking. Greene too often pitches up in the zone, he can't control where his pitches are going and as a result he walked far too many hitters this year. Greene will likely need to change up his delivery or work hard to find a consistent approach to it to get the ball where he wants.

Another disappointing aspect to Greene's season is that his numbers were worse later in the season, he did not show signs of improvement. The big question is can he? There have been mutterings of mental approach and work ethic concerns from the front office but it is unknown whether this is real or a reflection of Greene's Santa Monica background. Greene has spoken with Aaron Sanchez about how Sanchez got through this phase of his development.

There were other stories about Greene in the spring time, how he had shown up to spring training trying to throw as hard as he could, seeing if he could force his way into the mix for the Blue Jays bullpen. If this is true it obviously did not work but it might have set Greene back mentally. When a talented player does not reach his potential there are always theories and stories. Who knows how much of it is true? Sportsnet's Stephen Brunt has suggested the Jays could trade Greene this off-season. If they doubt his potential to work his way through his challenges that could be the case. If the Jays hang on to him, it could be a sign they believe he will make it.


13. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  | SS



Image from TSN.

Year Age Team AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2017
23
DUN
66
1
0
1
2
13
1
0
.197
.217
.258
2017
23
NH
170
10
0
4
10
30
2
0
.241
.286
.371

When Yuliesky Gurriel defected and signed with the Astros, his contract was for $47M over five years, an annual average of over $9M for the 32 year old. When Yasiel Puig signed with the Dodgers his contract was valued at $42M over seven years, a $6M per year value. And Lourdes Gurriel Jr. signed for $22M over seven years, an annual value of $3M. Lourdes Gurriel's contract shows what teams expect of the player. Remember the Jays were the high bidder and scouts expect Gurriel to be an average utility type player. Think Darwin Barney. A good fielder, will hit for some average but not much power. There is some variability around this somewhat downbeat assessment. Gurriel could play better than the scouts expect and become a major league regular or he could be worse and never make it.

In his first season Gurriel has been less than expected. His batting average is .229, he doesn't walk much and he hasn't shown much power. Gurriel does have a couple of excuses he could bring out. It was his first season playing in North America, his first season getting used to the travel, the style of play and living in the US. Many Cuban players find the transition difficult. Moving from a society that doesn't have a lot of trust, to one where a player suddenly has a lot of money and often several hangers-on, can be a challenge. Secondly Gurriel was injured and missed playing time. Gurriel did not play until April 19 but then immediately hurt himself again and was on the DL until June 19. That stop and start playing would not be supportive of development.

Gurriel uses his upper body in his swing with minimal use of his lower body. This limits his power potential. Other than that Gurriel is athletic and has good bat to ball skills. In the field he is versatile. In New Hampshire he split his time between short and second base. He could also play third or the outfield.

This October Gurriel saw his brother win the World Series. Will this have an impact on Lourdes? Will he learn from that experience how he needs to approach is development? Lourdes is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League and is hitting better than he did in AA. The fall league is not a good predictor of future performance but it is giving Gurriel reps, and that is what he needs right now. Gurriel should return to New Hampshire to start 2018.


12. TJ Zeuch | RHP



Image from Eddie Michels.

(Image from MiLB.com)

Year Age Team G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2017
21
DUN
12 11
58.2 9.7 0.5 2.6 7.1 3.38
2017
21
GCL
3 3
7.0 11.6 1.3 2.6 6.4 5.14


Injuries and an improved farm system have conspired to keep 2016 first-round pick T.J. Zeuch out of the Batter’s Box Top 10 prospects this year but his recent performance in the Arizona Fall League indicates that should not happen again next year.

Zeuch had a promising April with Dunedin that saw him record an earned run average of 1.62 over three starts and one relief appearance in which he recorded his first professional win. It was a different story in May when Florida State League hitters got the better of him by batting .305 against him while his ERA for the month nearly reached 4.00.

Back and hamstring injuries led to Zeuch missing all of June and July and prolonged struggles in August with the Dunedin and Gulf Coast League Blue Jays before ending the regular season with four shutout innings with Dunedin. He then pitched four more shutout frames in Dunedin’s clinching of the co-Florida State League championship in Tampa. Now he’s making up for lost time with a solid season in the Arizona Fall League in which his WHIP is 0.98 heading into the final week of the season.

The 6-foot-7 Zeuch saw his strikeout rate dip from 2016 in Vancouver by over 1-1/2 per nine innings with Dunedin but his groundball rate remains over 60, guaranteeing his infielders will never be bored.

According to Baseball America, Zeuch has been throwing a fastball in the 92-95 MPH range with late run and sink along with a low-80s slider, a mid-80s changeup and a curveball. In an interview with Jim Callis of MLB.com, the former Pittsburgh Panther considers his sinker to be his “bread and butter pitch” and calls his curve his best strikeout offering.

Zeuch could start 2018 back in Dunedin to get some more work under his belt before making the jump to New Hampshire. The Mason, Ohio native will celebrate his 23rd birthday on August 1.

11. Edward Olivares  | OF


Image from MiLB.com.

Year Age Team AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2017
21
LAN
426
26
9
17
22
82
18
7
.277
.330
.500
2017
21
DUN
68
1
1
0
8
17
2
2
.221
.312
.265

Edward Olivares was overshadowed on the Lugnuts this season by Vladimiar Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Flying under the radar, Olivares finished fifth in OPS in the Midwest League. This performance was a surprise for a player who had not stood out in previous seasons. Olivares signed out of Venezuela and first played in the Dominican Summer League in 2014 at age 18. He hit well in the DSL and that earned him a place on the GCL Jays for 2015. There he hit under .200 in 116 at-bats. In 2016 he was sent to Bluefield but was injured after just 55 at-bats. In his brief time there he hit .273 with just one home run. Having not made a name for himself it was somewhat surprising when he was sent to Lansing to start 2017. He had just turned 21 years old. April was a slow start for Olivares, he hit just .241 although he did hit four home runs and hit for the cycle on April 24.

After the cycle Olivares steadily improved. He hit .275 in May, .323 in June and .290 in July. His OPS poppoed too, 1014 in June and 903 in July. All of that hitting earned him a promotion to Dunedin on August 13. He just hit .221 in 19 games but that set him up to start there in 2018.

Olivares' 17 home runs were second in the Blue Jays minor league system to Conor Panas. And his 10 triples were the most in the system, beating Chavez Young by two. Olivares is fast and plays a strong centre field. His range and arm are both above average. Even though he is fast his base stealing needs some work. He stole 18 bases but was caught 7 times. Olivares also does not walk a lot, just 22 in 464 at-bats. That lack of selectivity might have impaired his hitting in Dunedin. This is all part of the development process.

Olivares has now established himself as one to watch. He will return to Dunedin to start 2018 and should take up his position in centre field. He will need to refine his approach against better pitchers and the bigger parks in the FSL might impact his power. Some scouts wonder how his power will develop against better pitching but if he can play a plus center field, and hit for average, he will have enough to make it to the major leagues based on those tools alone.


Join us tomorrow for the cream of the crop, the top ten Blue Jays prospects.

Blue Jays 2017 Top Prospects: 20 - 11 | 33 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
MrPurple - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 08:44 AM EST (#350629) #
If Reese was indeed born in 1985 I have my doubts as to his viability as a 'prospect'
uglyone - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 09:04 AM EST (#350630) #
man our top-10 must be stacked, because for me, Maese, McGuire, and Zeuch should all be contending for the top 10.
Gerry - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 09:21 AM EST (#350631) #
ugly, all three of those guys were injured in 2017. That likely took from their rankings.
uglyone - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 09:27 AM EST (#350632) #
yeah no doubt. I can see the reasons for sure.

this was a great read again, gerry.



and you don't want all of us just to agree with you, right? :)
PeterG - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 09:50 AM EST (#350633) #
Nice to see Olivares getting his due. I agree with his ranking. I think that Gurriel has more power than is suggested in this article and it has shown of late.If really nitpicking, I would rank McGuire ahead of Penetecost among catchers.

All in all, a good job and a good read.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 10:24 AM EST (#350634) #
Very interesting read, crew.  The ranking of players between #5 (presumably after Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Alford and Pearson) and #19 is open to a lot of debate.  I like Pannone and McGuire more than the others in the 11-20 range- Pannone because he has passed the double A test and McGuire because of the apparent adjustments to his swing to get more loft. 

Russell Martin's role over the next few years isn't, in my view, quite as fixed as suggested here.  He has caught 107, 117, 127 and 83 games the last 4 years- he is getting older and has 1448 major league games behind the plate.  I think that the club would be happy to get 90-100 games a year from him behind the plate; he is useful as a backup third baseman also. 

Glevin - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 10:37 AM EST (#350637) #
This is where you see the real depth of the system that we haven't had in a long time. There are a few guys on here that are legit #10 level prospects and the whole list is interesting.

For example, look at the 2015 list and I'm not sure there is a single player in the 10-20 range who would be there this year (not including someone like Jansen who is a very different prospect). I mean Matt Smoral was #11 prospect despite being hurt and having bad numbers. Would you take 2015 Matt Smoral or 2017 Patrick Murphy?

Personally, I'd probably drop Tellez to the bottom of this list. He needs to rake to have value in the majors and he was maybe the worst hitter in the International League and while 22 is young, it's not like he was 18. Also, even his "positive August", he hit 0 HRs and a .776 OPS which is still not all that good. I wouldn't give up on him but I think the chances of him being a major leaguer are now very small. McGuire on the other hand has an excellent chance of having a major league career either as a backup, starter, or somewhere in between.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 11:07 AM EST (#350638) #
I'm quite sceptical about Tellez - his path was always fairly narrow as a defensively "just adequate" 1B with questions about his swing. A full year of very poor performance gives him very long odds to be a useful player, I'm afraid.

Like Peter, I think we should rank McGuire a little more highly. Obviously, he only had a small sample in AA this summer, but I think he showed enough power in that sample that he no longer needs to find the necessary offensive ability to be a major-league starter - he just needs to sustain them. That's quite a different proposition, and I think it moves him up a bit more.

I'll be interested to see if Jonathan Davis and Roemon Fields make the "Just Missed" list - they are both older centre field prospects with decent performance this past year in the upper minors. They could both get chances as a 4th outfielder with their skill sets.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 11:09 AM EST (#350639) #
Agree with Glevin. I am probably the biggest Tellez believer on this site and I still think the ranking is too high.

I think he bounces back this year, but until he shows it on the field he belongs in the 20s.
jerjapan - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 11:52 AM EST (#350641) #
zecuh cracks my top ten, but otherwise, I'm pretty close with you guys again in terms of the rankings. 

I'm fine with Tellez ranked where he is - he and McGuire seem like a great contrast.  One has the high floor, low ceiling (unless you're willing to buy into his red-hot August as a legit transformation - he's young enough, and has the pedigree, that this might be the case).  The other could washout completely but also has tantalizing offensive potential that has been rare in our org for years. 

Certainly the arguments for ranking Tellez in the bottom of the top 30 reflect a sport-wide reconsideration of offensive prospect value.  I still think he's a no-brainer to protect in the rule v, and expect him to get picked if exposed, but I don't we'd have even been discussing that possibility with a comparable prospect just a few years ago.

Cracka - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 12:04 PM EST (#350642) #
A full year of very poor performance gives him very long odds to be a useful player, I'm afraid.

I cannot find or think of any comparable player that has had a productive MLB career after such a massively disappointing full year (i.e. not injured) in the minors. I'm a big Tellez fan too and want to believe that his age and pedigree are reasons to believe that he could turn things around. But it seems to be virtually unprecedented.... Can anyone think an comparable example that serves as a precedent?

(P.S. Great job on the list, much appreciate all the hard work).
Mike Green - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 12:09 PM EST (#350643) #
I don't know if Olivares is the #11th best prospect in the organization (he wouldn't be on my list), but the gap between him and the two aces in Lansing is just humungous, both in terms of performance and age.  I suppose that is mostly a reflection of the nature of the list this year.  There have been years where you could reasonably argue whether the #11 prospect was about as good as the #2- not remotely close to that this year.

Olivares turns 22 in March, and will start out in Dunedin.  I don't really see him as a high average guy- if he succeeds, I think that it will be as a Mike Cameron power/speed/walks/defence combination.  During his minor league career as a whole, he has drawn a fair number of walks, and it is possible to develop that some. 

uglyone - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 12:10 PM EST (#350644) #
I don't see how you can go any lower for Rowdy. He had an awful year but has been elite while young for his level every other year. Even now many of the guys ranked near or above him here haven't accomplished near what he did in AA or A+, even though they're older than him. I mean look at Conner Greene - he's the same age as Rowdy, but has been awful for over the last 2 years now, at levels that Rowdy absolutely demolished at younger ages. Olivares is getting hype for hitting Lansing pretty well at age 21, when Rowdy was demolishing AA - two levels higher - at that age.

For me Olivares is just plain too high. A good but not spectacular year in Lansing at age 21 (i.e. a bit old for the level) shouldn't be enough to have him borderline top-10 in this system, especially since he scuffled badly in his brief stint in more age-appropriate Dunedin, and since his plate discipline and contact numbers are mediocre at best.

Greene is also too high for me.

For me, McGuire, Zeuch, and Maese are the 3 best prospects in this section of the rankings.

bpoz - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 12:13 PM EST (#350645) #
I thought Gurriel and T Hernandez did not qualify as prospects because they do not appear on the prospect list that I follow. I don't know why.

Danner makes me nervous as a catcher because our luck is very bad producing catchers. I wonder if he can do some pitching in Instruction league & extended ST when he is not catching. Of course he cannot if he gets injured, like many of our catchers do. Then again he can keep his arm strong helping pitchers get their work in on their off days. Then again it could get confusing about who is the pitcher if his throws back are harder and more accurate.

These are excellent lists so far. I have figured out the top 10. I expect T Hernandez to be in the top 10. 26 Hr in 2017 is v good.

There is a lot of talent both young and old (?) in the 31+ list.
uglyone - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 12:34 PM EST (#350646) #
"I cannot find or think of any comparable player that has had a productive MLB career after such a massively disappointing full year (i.e. not injured) in the minors."

Tough to search this kind of stuff but iirc guys like Neil Walker and Brian Dozier crashed badly in their first taste of AAA.
Gerry - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 12:36 PM EST (#350647) #
Teoscar Hernandez is no longer a rookie so he is not in the top 10. Players who have played internationally are sometimes included on lists and sometimes excluded. Its the same discussion as should they be eligible for rookie of the year? We decided to include Gurriel.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 12:38 PM EST (#350648) #
Marcus Thames had a pretty comparable year to Tellez' 2016 at age 25 in the International League, and went on to a pretty fair hitting career in MLB.  He did not have Tellez' pedigree nor was there an explanation for his struggles (as far as I know)- Tellez was dealing with his mother's cancer.  Neil Walker had a pretty bad year at age 22 in the IL in 2008, as did Vernon Wells in 2000 at age 21, but both were not as bad as Tellez' 2016. 
lexomatic - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 01:05 PM EST (#350649) #
My opinion has been that Tellez, while acknowledging the bad year and the downgrade in expectations, gets a pass for the circumstances.Serious medical concerns for a parent or close family member are a huge distraction. People are forgetting that what he dealt with for a significant amount of the season is not something the normal prospect has to deal with. Western society does not prepare people for this, and athletes may be especially poorly prepared to handle these types of adversity as young people. He absolutely does need to improve next year. He needs to show power, plate discipline, and ability to hit for average at some point in the year, preferably more than one at a time, and of these power needs to be the most consistent. If he can do that, he gets one more season to make further adjustments. Otherwise he is a placeholder.
I totally believe in his work ethic, but there may be something missing that cannot be adjusted.


Olivares turns 22 in March, and will start out in Dunedin.  I don't really see him as a high average guy- if he succeeds, I think that it will be as a Mike Cameron power/speed/walks/defence combination.  During his minor league career as a whole, he has drawn a fair number of walks, and it is possible to develop that some. 

I am of a different mind. I expect Olivares to be fully dependent on average for his full worth, but having good power-speed and defense. I'm not confident in his plate discipline, though it's early still. I still see some fluctuation year-to-year. I can't think of a good example off-hand. I also expect him to strike out less than Cameron.

I think Connor Greene has a 10c head and won't amount to much until there is evidence that has changed. But he throws hard.
I like McGuire a lot. While I'm not sure about the power spike, it would answer the main question about his offensive profile. If he can hit double digit home runs this year with no change in defensive positives, he a is legit back-up minimum.


GabrielSyme - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 02:05 PM EST (#350650) #
One problem with comparing Tellez to Neil Walker, Brian Dozier and Marcus Thames is that, if we take their offensive output as near the best-case-outcome for players who crash in AAA, the prognosis still isn't that good for Tellez. Take their offensive years, put them as an average defensive 1B without baserunning value, and you have a fringey regular with some average years and a lot of below-average years. That's not a great ceiling.

I appreciate that many here will want to grant Tellez the benefit of the doubt given the things he had to deal with in his family. I don't think we can ignore the 2017 numbers, but it's reasonable to give them less weight than in ordinary circumstances. Nonetheless, the narrow path Tellez had to a productive career looks a lot narrower to me.
jerjapan - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 02:29 PM EST (#350652) #
I absolutely agree with Lexomatic that Tellez's personal life challenges warrant a mulligan for his season. 

But I continue to wonder just how quickly we should assume that corrections in the market are now established facts - is the current market price for defensively challenged, slow sluggers accurate, or an over-reaction?  The JD Martinez deadline deal vs. his current FA demands illustrates this issue.  Should we also now raise our evaluation of relief prospects, like Jackson in the top 30, or perhaps Greene in the top 20? 

The industry is in the midst of reappraising value, but I'd like to wait a bit before making conclusions.  Writing Tellez off seems premature to me at this point. 

uglyone - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 02:52 PM EST (#350653) #
on the other side, Gabriel, few have put up the numbers at his age that Rowdy did, so there's more promise there still as well.

I don't really give tellez a "mulligan" for last year (he's way less promising than he seemed a year ago, no doubt about that), but I still have a hard time dropping him down behind guys his age or older that haven't even come close to matching what he did in previous years.
Nigel - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 03:04 PM EST (#350654) #
First off, thank you to the writers of this series. The quality of these are high and thoughtful.

I think the prospects at 21-30 yesterday were actually pretty "meh" (from an organizational depth perspective). Although I acknowledge that this reaction is derived from seeing those prospects like Harris, Gudina and Vicuna who came through Vancouver and being underwhelmed by them as prospects; but they made up only about half of yesterday's list. However, I'm with Glevin about what this list shows; today's list is a strong one, in my view, and speaks well to prospect depth. I agree with Mike that prospects 5-19 are probably closer this year than in most years in terms of rankings. There are good arguments for and against the ranking of many of these prospects. A number of these prospects would have made top ten lists in recent years.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 03:29 PM EST (#350655) #
Nigel, I'm guessing that Logan Warmoth and Samad Taylor are both top 10.  That'll give us something to talk about tomorrow!
Nigel - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 03:54 PM EST (#350656) #
Agreed. I predict by the middle of next year that Warmoth will be the hardest/most contentious prospect to rank in the whole system.
PeterG - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 04:13 PM EST (#350657) #
It is said that you need to see Warmoth over a period of time to judge him accurately as his steadiness and consistency are his calling cards as opposed to anything that is likely to stand out in a few isolated viewings.

And the depth of the system seems very strong when Maximo Castillo, McGregory Contreras and Chavez Young didn't make the top 30. Or maybe they should have?
John Northey - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 04:57 PM EST (#350660) #
  • 2005: failed prospects like John-Ford Griffin, Chi-hung Cheng, Chip Cannon
  • 2006: a few who had brief shots like Jamie Vermilyea, Josh Banks, and Ty Taubenheim.
  • 2007: Sergio Santos as a SS, Brian Jeroloman, Justin Jackson as a SS, J.P. Arencibia
  • 2008: Tyler Pastronicky, Brad Emaus, Tim Collins (who has been solid in KC), Scott Richmond, Balbino Fuenmayor
  • 2009: Eric Thames, Darin Mastroianni, Brian Dopirak, Brad Mills - guys who had a shot, did OK at times, flopped at times
  • 2010: Moises Sierra, Joel Carreno, Chad Jenkins, Aaron Sanchez, Asher Wojciechowski,Anthony Gose, Jake Marisnick - easily the best so far
  • 2011: David Cooper, Adonys Cardona, Marcus Knecht, Carlos Perez , A.J. Jimenez - one who might be done, rest still in 'who knows' status
  • 2012: Chase DeJong, Kevin Pillar, Dwight Smith Jr, John Stilson, Alberto Tirado, Matt Smoral, Santiago Nessy, Christian Lopes, AJ Jimenez, and Sean Nolin
  • 2013: AJ Jimenez (spent a lot of time in this range), Smoral, Dwight Smith Jr, Richard Urena, John Stilson, Chase DeJong, and others.
  • 2014: Sean Reid-Foley, Richard Urena, Rowdy Tellez, Sean Nolin, Dwight Smith Jr, Matt Smoral among others.
  • 2015: Dwight Smith Jr #15, Matt Smoral #11
  • 2016: #15. Reese McGuire, #13. Max Pentecost, #12. Harold Ramirez
As with yesterday's I'm sure I'm missing some obvious ones but not feeling like digging into the past years right now with a 3 year old yelling at me.
aarne13 - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 05:24 PM EST (#350663) #
FWIW- Deck McGuire signs a minor league deal w/ST invite

I do think that Tellez gets a mulligan for this year. Obviously 2018 is a make or break year for him. It would be nice to develop a legit power bat.

85bluejay - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 08:47 PM EST (#350667) #
Interesting,McGuire had his best year in the Reds system last year, yet the Reds who are not overflowing with pitching talent chose not to keep him on their 40 man roster.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, November 16 2017 @ 09:13 PM EST (#350668) #
Mike, I have to think that Riley Adams snuck onto the top ten rather than Samad Taylor. We saw Kevin Smith at 21, who hit less well at a lower level and was taken a round later. Adams had good reviews as a receiver in Vancouver too.
Glevin - Friday, November 17 2017 @ 02:35 AM EST (#350672) #
The issue with Tellez is not just his awful year. His path to value in the majors is very narrow anyhow. He profiles as a DH in the majors so he has to be an elite hitter to be interesting. Second, even when Tellez was putting up monster numbers, he had a lot of doubters which raises the very real possibility that Tellez isn't a very good prospect who got stuck but rather a so-so prospect who got found out at a higher level. I think the potential path to success for Tellez would be a swing change. Try to get more loft, fewer grounders and start his swing earlier/time things differently. It's almost impossible to see this opposite field hitting/ground ball/popup Rowdy Tellez having major league success.
TamRa - Friday, November 17 2017 @ 03:10 AM EST (#350673) #
^Concur on that. Nine of the next ten are entirely predictable and I'm betting Adams is the tenth (spoilers)

Just dropping by to share a tidbit with y'all. Gurriel as you know was signed just after BA dropped their Top 10 list for the Jays last year. I ask Manuel via Twitter if, had he been in the system when they were writing up the list, where he would have ranked LGJ and he said "probably #3" so there's at least one professional observer who was quite high on him when he was signed. FWIW.

By the way - food for thought - would any of you consider sliding Taylor Guerriere into your Top 30? Before the injury he had some really impressive stats and he's still young enough to be a prospect.

dan gordon - Friday, November 17 2017 @ 04:43 AM EST (#350674) #
Guerriere is certainly in the top 30 of the list I maintain.

I have Tellez pretty close to where he is listed here. That was a remarkable year he had in AA at 21, and I'm not about to write him off after 1 bad year which may have been partly due to his mother's illness. I'd be quite surprised if they don't 40-man him.
85bluejay - Friday, November 17 2017 @ 07:28 AM EST (#350675) #
Judging by the comments, I'm probably the high person on Olivares - he would have been in my top 10 and I'm expecting a breakout year from him in 2018. I'm also probably the low person on Tellez, he'd be a bubble guy for a 40 man spot - of course, I advocated for the Jays to trade him last offseason as he was coming off that stellar AA season. I hope the Jays are patient with Zeuch - guys with his physique (6"7") usually take longer to gain control of their mechanics.I like Guerrieri, he would be in my top 15.

Maybe Manuel was high on Gurriel to rank him #3 - maybe Manuel was not excited about the Jays system a year ago.
Blue Jays 2017 Top Prospects: 20 - 11 | 33 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.